<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
Melbourne is well-suited to urban sprawl; it’s flat, easy to build on and lacks geographic boundaries like waterways and cliffs that force other cities into higher densities.
It’s possible to continue building low-density housing out as far as Geelong in the west, Seymour in the north and Warragul in the east. But is that really the best way forward for Melbourne’s population growth and housing affordability?
Broadly speaking, urban sprawl works in this country because Australians prefer to live in houses with a yard. The most popular search criteria on realestate.com.au in 2016 was for a four-bedroom, two-bathroom, two-car garage house on a 708 sqm block, all for the bargain price of $520,000. But, finding a house that fits this criteria in Melbourne is almost impossible in the inner and middle ring suburbs. And the preference for the Aussie house means neighbourhoods end up opposing council plans for higher density developments. The result is far greater house and land development on the outer fringes of the city.
So far, Victoria has done very well out of its widening sprawl. One of the key drivers of the Victorian economy over the past decade has been housing development on the fringes. Victoria has developed more housing than any other state, which means greater affordability for all job types, not all of whom are high-income earning.
Affordability may seem like a big problem in Melbourne, but Sydney is worse. Sydney has built 30% fewer dwellings over the past 10 years than Melbourne and housing continues to be the main problem in the NSW capital. Continuing to provide affordability through increasing housing supply has been crucial in maintaining Victoria’s economic growth. 
If more housing is the key to maintaining affordability, and if people prefer to live in big homes and are happy to live on the fringes of big cities to do so, then why do we need to consider alternatives? There are three main problems with this scenario:
1. Cost: It’s far more expensive to develop and maintain infrastructure and public services in low density areas. From greater car dependency to the provision of water, sewers and electricity, many of these government-funded services are more expensive to provide in outer areas.
2. Isolation: There are important social disadvantages in living in low densities. There is less social interaction, there is a lack of walkability in neighbourhoods because destinations like shops, services and and restaurants are concentrated too far away from housing, and residents often face long commutes to places of employment.
3. Jobs: The final challenge is that it’s easy to get urban sprawl but harder to form employment hubs close to where the sprawl is occurring. The radial nature of our road and public transport networks makes it easy to get people into the CBD and inner suburban locations, not fringe employment hubs. Ultimately, companies want to locate in areas where they can get the best talent.
Locating in an outer suburban area close to where much of the house and land development is taking place, such as Craigieburn or Cranbourne, would make sense for some occupiers, but the reality is that the majority of people would find it far easier getting to the CBD. Rent may be cheap but access to the right type of workers is almost impossible.
The solution is to provide the housing that people want while reducing the sprawling nature of our cities. That will mean developing regional cities where people can access houses without being isolated from the city centre, and encouraging a greater acceptance of apartment dwelling in Melbourne.
Although large homes remain the preferred dwelling type on realestate.com.au, suburbs that provide good schools, public transport and retailing tend to see the highest engagement. These amenities are typically found in the inner and middle ring suburbs, which will require higher densities if more housing is to be provided. However, more and more, they can also be found in regional cities such as Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat. Importantly, these cities also contain employment.
For those wanting to remain close to central Melbourne, people need to get more comfortable with the idea of apartment living. Over the next five years, living in an inner Melbourne house will continue to become more expensive, but apartment living, influenced by massive development, is going to become more affordable.
In the Melbourne CBD alone, around 18,000 apartments will be completed this year, almost 10 times the annual average. Prices are already coming down and affordable options are no longer restricted to the urban fringe.
Urban sprawl is the simple solution to providing affordable housing in a growing city, but it is not the best way forward. By focussing on regional city development, as well as continuing to encourage higher densities in inner and middle ring suburbs, we can create the types of housing that people most desire, or alternatively, housing in locations that people most desire. This will give people choice and allow them to make trade-offs between living in a big city but small home, or in a smaller city with a big home.
Nerida Conisbee is REA Group Chief Economist. 
This article was first published on <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/" target="_blank">Pursuit</a>.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Greater residential density or urban sprawl - solving the housing challenge 

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.4 percent in March and was up 12.9 percent over the year.
Prices rose in all eight capital cities with Canberra and Darwin up the most (up 3.1 percent). Regional house prices by 0.8 percent in February (latest available).
Manufacturing: The Performance of Manufacturing index eased from 15-year highs, down by 1.8 points to 57.5 in March. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. This was the sixth consecutive month of expansion.
Home price data is important for retailers, especially those focussed on consumer durables. The manufacturing data provides guidance for companies in the Industrials sector.
What does it all mean?
The economic data has certainly started off the week on a healthy footing. Stronger home prices in March while manufacturing activity barely eased from 15 year highs.
It may be no surprise to see that home prices continue to lift across most capital cities. But what was clearly surprising was the magnitude of the lift in prices. Probably even more surprising was that home prices rose in all eight capital cities. Across the nation home prices rose by a substantial 1.4 per cent in March, matching a similar result in February and December 2016.
In fact over the four months to March home prices have accelerated by 4.9 percent – the strongest four-month period in 18 months.
Across the capital cities, it was encouraging that Darwin and Hobart featured heavily when it came to the strength in home prices as opposed to Sydney and Melbourne.
Interestingly the key resource states saw a rebound in home prices, although annual growth remained weak. The sustained lift in commodity prices may help to alleviate some of the weakness in home prices in coming months.
Overall policymakers will keep a close eye on the housing sector in the early part of 2017, and will prefer to see more balanced house price growth across the nation. In particular, a lift in regional house prices would be a positive outcome. Annual growth in home prices across regional centres was a healthier 4 per cent over the past 12 months.
Click to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%2011.45.04%20AM.png" alt="">
What do the figures show?
Home prices
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.4 per cent in March and was up 12.9 per cent over the year.
In regional Australia, house prices rose by 0.8 per cent in February and were just 4 per cent higher than a year ago. (Regional prices cover just houses and data is up to the end of February). 
In capital cities, house prices rose by 1.5 per cent in March while apartment prices rose by 0.9 per cent. House prices were up 13.4 per cent on a year ago and apartments were up by 9.8 per cent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $613,000 and the average unit price was $512,200.
Dwelling prices rose in all eight capital cities in March: Hobart (up 3.1 per cent), Darwin (up 3.1 per cent), Melbourne (up 1.9 per cent), Canberra (up 1.4 per cent), Sydney (up 1.4 per cent), Perth (up 1 per cent), Adelaide (up 0.4 per cent) and Brisbane (up 0.2 per cent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 18.9 per cent); followed by Melbourne (up 15.9 per cent), Canberra (up 12.8 per cent); Hobart (up 10.2 per cent); Adelaide (up 3.4 per cent); and Brisbane (up 3.7 per cent). Prices fell in Perth (down by 4.7 per cent) and Darwin (down 4.4 per cent)
Total returns on capital city dwellings rose by 16.7 per cent in the year to March with houses up 17.1 per cent on a year earlier and units up 14.3 per cent.
Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index fell from 15-year highs, down by 1.8 points to 57.5 in March. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. This was the sixth consecutive month of expansion.
AIG notes “All seven activity sub-indexes in the Australian PMI® expanded in March (seasonally adjusted). Expansions in new orders (62.6 points) and sales (57.7 points) strengthened. Production expanded while slowing from more robust growth last month (57.6 points) as did employment (54.1 points). Deliveries (52.9 points) and exports (51.1 points) eased to more modest growth, while inventories turned up in March (55.5 points).”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%2011.45.46%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%2011.45.46%20AM.png" alt="">
“Comments from manufacturers in March indicate that demand continues to recover. Positive factors for demand include: higher prices for coal and other commodities; large infrastructure projects; the NBN rollout; stronger defence spending and stronger activity in the agricultural sector. Energy prices (particularly electricity) continue to play havoc with manufacturers. Concerns about energy pricing and security of supply are eroding profitability and confidence. Other input prices are increasing (including steel prices), which is putting manufacturers’ margins under further pressure. Export growth appear to be easing off for some manufacturers, compared to the strong surge of exports seen in 2016.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
  The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
  The Australian Industry Group compiles the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
  Activity in the manufacturing sector is encouraging, especially the lift in new orders that has been identified in recent months. All the published data and anecdotes indicate that business conditions have markedly improved since the flat spot recorded for the economy in mid-2016.
  Investors are once again driving key housing markets such as Sydney and Melbourne. But there are more risks, with investors relying on expected capital appreciation for returns on their investment rather than rising rents. More apartments are being built, supply will catch up to demand and growth of home prices will ease over the next few years. Investors need to be aware of the risks including recent actions by regulators to slow housing demand.
  The broad-based health of Australian housing markets reduces the potential for further rate cuts. While fixed- term lending rates have lifted, it is still too early to canvas possible rate hikes from the Reserve Bank. 
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
</body></html>

Home prices accelerate: Savanth Sebastian

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
Private sector credit rose by 0.3 percent in February after a 0.2 percent gain in January. Annual credit growth of 5.0 percent is near 3-year lows.  
Investor housing: Investor housing finance lifted by 0.6 per cent in February to stand 6.7 per cent higher over the year – the fastest growth in 12 months.  
China data: The National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose from 51.6 to 51.8 in March while the services gauge rose from 54.2 to 55.1 – a near 3-year high.  
What does it all mean?
The latest lending (private sector credit) figures suggest a subdued borrowing environment. But it is important to point out that lending recorded the biggest lift in 15 months in December and only partially gave back some of that out-sized growth over January and February. The subdued February reading was largely due to a modest slide in business credit which would be expected given the out-sized gain in December. The key will be how business borrowing performs in coming months.  
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%208.47.27%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%208.47.27%20AM.png" alt="">
Interestingly home lending continues to lift, dominated by investor credit growth. In fact annual growth in investor finance is now at a 12-month high. The measures taken over the last couple of year by regulators to curb investment lending had a temporary impact that has faded. And as such it is no surprise that the regulators have today looked at other avenues to tighten lending standards.  
The measures announced by APRA today are designed to keep modest pressure on the brakes of investor home lending rather than represent a slamming on the brakes. Annual growth of investor lending still remains comfortably below the 10 per cent annual growth limit although new lending has been lifting in recent months. Anecdotally the lift in interest rates on investor housing loans is already acting to slow interest in home buying.  
The stronger Chinese manufacturing and services data bodes well for the broader global economy. And given the strong trade links between Australia and China, policymakers would be encouraged by a strengthening Chinese economy.  
No doubt policymakers will continue to discuss key issues like housing affordability, but overall the central bank seems upbeat on the medium-term outlook for the Australian economy. CommSec expects no change to interest rates over the rest of 2017.  
What do the figures show?  
Private sector credit  
Private sector credit (lending) rose by 0.3 per cent in February after a 0.2 per cent gain in January. Annual credit growth eased from 5.4 per cent to a near 3-year   low of 5.0 per cent.
Housing credit grew by 0.6 per cent in February to be up 6.4 per cent on a year ago – annual growth is lifting of the lowest levels in 30 months.  
Owner occupier housing credit rose by 0.5 per cent in February to stand 6.2 per cent higher than a year ago – the slowest growth in 17 months. Investor housing finance lifted 0.6 per cent in February to stand 6.7 per cent higher over the year – the fastest growth in 12 months.  
Personal credit fell by 0.1 per cent in February to be down 1.3 per cent over the year – just up from the 1.4 per cent annual decline in January, which was the biggest annual decline in 41⁄2 years.  
Business credit fell by 0.1 per cent in February after a 0.4 per cent fall in January and 1.1 per cent rise in December. Business credit is 3.7 per cent higher than a year ago – slowest growth in 21⁄2 years.  What is the importance of the economic data?  
Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%208.46.29%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%208.46.29%20AM.png" alt="">
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Chinese economic data remains encouraging, showing that the transition from the industrial sector to household sector remains on track. The manufacturing sector is expanding, while the services sector is clearly the driver taking up any slack.  
Interest rates are super-low but credit growth is slowing rather than rising. Excluding investor housing, demand for loans is modest. Consumers and businesses are still keen to pay down debt rather than take up new credit.  
 Interest rates will remain on hold over the rest of 2017.  
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
</body></html>

Investor lending dominates borrowings: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/75539/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) and the Reserve Bank (RBA) are locked into a strange game of tweaking with economic levers to try and reduce the risk of a rapidly growing property market.
But past cycles of rate rises and rules to try and curb lending to investors show the effectiveness of these measures is running out.
It also underscores the problems arising from a government unwilling to tackle the problem at source – the perverse incentives in the tax system. 
Looking back to December 2014, the RBA voiced its mounting concerns about the rapid growth in lending to property investors and the steep increases in property prices it was fuelling. But rather than address these concerns by raising interest rates, as the RBA had done in somewhat similar circumstances in the early 2000s, it was instead left to the banking system regulator APRA to tackle this by writing a letter to banks and other mortgage lenders about the need for more cautious mortgage lending practices.
This letter laid down new rules capping the annual growth in lending to investors at a benchmark of 10%. APRA also set stricter criteria for determining whether borrowers could repay their loans if interest rates were to change. 
This warning from the regulator had its desired effect. The share of new housing loans made to investors fell from over 40% during the 2014-15 financial year to less than 30% by the December quarter of 2015.
And this in turn saw the annual growth rate of loans to property investors slow from a peak of 10.8% in the June quarter of 2015 to less than 8% by the end of 2015. It fell again to less than 5% by the September quarter of last year. 
The banks also fell into line with the new rules, cutting back on other more risky types of lending, such as interest-only loans, and loans with initial loan-to-valuation ratios in excess of 90%.
The RBA was especially pleased with these developments, thinking that the risk was easing. So when it met again in May last year, the RBA Board was persuaded to cut the cash rate to a new record low of 1.75%,in response to a much-lower-than-expected inflation result for the March quarter. 
The RBA still seemed content at its August 2016 meeting, seeing the easing conditions in the housing market as being consistent with APRA tightening the lending standard screws. It decided on another cut in the cash rate, to 1.5%.
But now investors have come back into the property market with a vengeance. These two reductions in interest rates have in effect overwhelmed the tightening in lending standards enforced by APRA during the first half of 2015.
This resurgence in lending to property investors has pushed up property prices once again, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. Dwelling values rose by 18.4% in Sydney and 13.1% Melbourne respectively, over the year to February.
The share of new loans going to investors has picked up from less than 30% in the December quarter 2015, to over 35% in the December quarter 2016, according to APRA statistics. This is from less than 44% of new housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in November 2015 to more than 50% in January 2017 according to ABS housing finance statistics. 
The annual growth rate of loans outstanding to housing investors, as published by the RBA, has accelerated from 4.6% last August to 6.7% in February this year: over the last four months, lending to property investors has risen at an annualised rate of 8.0%. 
Now the RBA is back to being concerned about a build up of risks associated with the housing market. 
The RBA’s Assistant Governor (Financial System), Michele Bullock, acknowledges that although APRA’s 2015 actions “did address some of the risks” that had been mounting during 2014, “the initial effects on credit…may fade over time”. She added that APRA and the RBA “are prepared to do more if needed”. But since the RBA clearly has no appetite to reverse last year’s rate cuts any time soon, the only feasible option in the short term option is for APRA to do something about the Sydney and Melbourne markets. 
So APRA has today take another another bite at the cherry, requiring banks to restrict new interest-only lending to 30% of all new loans (a lower proportion than at any time since early 2009) and to ensure that growth in lending to investors is “comfortably below” the 10% cap.
What all of this highlights is the limited effectiveness of so-called “macro-prudential” measures in countering the very strong incentives to invest in residential property. These incentives are created by the combination of record low interest rates and the unusually generous treatment which the Australian taxation system gives to the costs of and returns from debt-funded property investment. 
While some commentators have urged the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates in order to dampen the latest surge in borrowing to invest in residential property, this seems unlikely. The RBA continues to expect inflation to remain below its 2-3% target range until at least the middle of next year, and unemployment to remain closer to 6% than to 5%.
It would be far better if the federal government were to tackle the problem at source. He could do this either by limiting the scope for negative gearing or reducing the capital gains tax discount, as Malcolm Turnbull once advocated (in a 2005 paper co-authored with the ANU’s Jeromey Temple). Even the Property Council of Australia has conceded should be lowered to 40%, and denied altogether on investments held for less than two years. 
However, given the government’s unwillingness to consider such measures, it seems more likely that APRA may have to become even more prescriptive with its lending criteria. And, as we have seen, in the current interest rate environment that is merely a bandaid solution – and bandaids eventually wear off.
Saul Eslake is vice-chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

The APRA bandaid for the housing market is wearing off: Saul Eslake

<html><body>
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has clamped down on interest-only loans in a bid to cool the hot east coast property market.
The regulator said it had written to all lenders today.
From now on interest-only loans must be restricted to 30 per cent of new residential mortgage loans.
Interest-only lending represents nearly 40 per cent of the stock of residential mortgage lending by banks.
APRA said this was "quite high" by international and historical standards.
<div>
<div data-twitter-event-id="0">
<div id="twitter-widget-0" lang="en" data-click-to-open-target="https://twitter.com/ThuyOng/status/847606383574896642" data-iframe-title="Twitter Tweet" data-dt-full="%{hours12}:%{minutes} %{amPm} - %{day} %{month} %{year}" data-dt-months="Jan|Feb|Mar|Apr|May|Jun|Jul|Aug|Sep|Oct|Nov|Dec" data-dt-am="AM" data-dt-pm="PM" data-dt-now="now" data-dt-s="s" data-dt-m="m" data-dt-h="h" data-dt-second="second" data-dt-seconds="seconds" data-dt-minute="minute" data-dt-minutes="minutes" data-dt-hour="hour" data-dt-hours="hours" data-dt-abbr="%{number}%{symbol}" data-dt-short="%{day} %{month}" data-dt-long="%{day} %{month} %{year}" data-scribe="page:tweet" data-tweet-id="847606383574896642" data-twitter-event-id="1">
“APRA views a higher proportion of interest-only lending in the current environment to be indicative of a higher risk profile," APRA Chairman Wayne Byres said.
"We will therefore be monitoring the share of interest-only lending within total new mortgage lending for each ADI, and will consider the need to impose additional requirements on an ADI when the proportion of new lending on interest-only terms exceeds 30 per cent of total new mortgage lending," Wayne Byres said.
He said that APRA also continues to monitor the prevalence of higher risk mortgage lending more generally, including lending at high loan-to-income ratios, lending at a high loan-to-valuation ratios, and lending at very long terms or with long interest only periods (e.g. beyond 5 years). 
He said the regulator believes the 10 per cent benchmark for growth in lending to investors continues to provide an appropriate constraint in the current environment, balancing the need to continue to moderate new investor lending with the increasing supply of newly completed construction which must be absorbed in the year ahead.
The new measures:
<ul>
<li>Limit the flow of new interest-only lending to 30% of total new residential mortgage lending, and within that place strict internal limits on the volume of interest-only lending at loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) above 80% and ensure there is strong scrutiny and justification of any instances of interest-only lending at an LVR above 90% </li>
<li>Manage lending to investors in such a manner so as to comfortably remain below the previously advised benchmark of 10%</li>
<li>Review and ensure that serviceability metrics, including interest rate and net income buffers, are set at appropriate levels for current conditions</li>
<li>Continue to restrain lending growth in higher risk segments of the portfolio (e.g. high loan-to-income loans, high LVR loans, and loans for very long terms).</li>
</ul>
No reduction in the 10% annual cap on investor credit growth was announced.
The increased scrutiny comes in response to an environment of heightened risks such as high housing prices, high household debt, low income growth, historically low interest rates, and strong competitive pressures. 
The regulator has has advised ADIs that it is also monitoring the growth in warehouse facilities provided by ADIs to other lenders. These facilities allow lenders to build a portfolio of loans that will eventually be securitised.
“APRA would be concerned if these warehouse facilities were growing at a materially faster rate than an ADI’s own housing loan portfolio, or if lending standards for loans held within warehouses are of a materially lower quality than would be consistent with industry-wide sound practices,” Byres said in the letter.
 </div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

APRA tightens interest only lending rules

<html><body>
Daylesford and Hepburn Mineral Water Co founder Mitch Watson has secured $1.4 million for his unusual Daylesford home.
Set at the foothills of Victoria’s spa precinct, it was designed by Joost Bakker with the sustainability guru’s trademark grassed rooftop.
The Green House occupies a three-hectare Daylesford site with the three-bedroom residence billed Australia’s first bushfire resistant straw house.
It also has sustainable solar power and hot water systems.
The kitchen overlooks its lounge and dining room, divided by a dual-opening Cheminees Philippe open fireplace.
The Green House was expected to sell for about $1.45 million through Jellis Craig agent Tom May.
This article first appeared in The Weekend Australian's Mansion Australia section.
</body></html>

Mitch Watson's Daylesford straw house sold

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/75287/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
What happens after Cyclone Debbie is a familiar process. It has been repeated many times in cities around the world. The reason is that our cities are not designed for these types of events.
So we know what comes next. Queenslanders affected by Debbie will complain about the damage, the costs and the need for insurers to act now to compensate their losses. The state and federal governments will extensively discuss who is to blame. 
The shambles will be cleared and life will eventually get back to normal. Billions of dollars will be spent on relocating people and on repairing the damage and public works. A state-level levy may even be necessary to pay for all the extra costs. Two storms, Katrina and Sandy, cost the United States more than US$200 billion between them. 
Yet we know what cyclones do. They bring, for a relatively short time, huge gusty winds. These are inconvenient but have proven not too damaging. 
The greatest risk comes from storm surge and rainfall. Both bring a huge amount of water. And all this water has to find a way to get out of our living environment. 
Despite knowing, approximately, where cyclones tend to occur, we never thought about adjusting our cities to their effects. It would make a huge financial difference if we did. 
So, what can we do to build our cities differently to ensure the impacts of cyclones – and the accompanying rainfall and storm surges – do not disrupt urban life? The answer to all of this is design. 
The usual design of current cities and towns brought us problems in the first place. We need to fundamentally rethink the design of our built-up areas.
<h2>Rethinking coastal and urban design</h2>
It starts with coastal design. We are used to building dams and coastal protection against storm surges happening once in 100 years. For comparison, the protection standards in the low-lying Netherlands are designed to protect the country against a once-in-10,000-years flood. But nature has proven to be stronger than our artificial constructs can handle.
An alternative design approach is to rely on the natural coastal processes of land forming – such as reefs, islands, mangroves, beaches and dunes. Humans can help the formation of these natural protectors by providing the triggers for them to emerge. 
As an example, when we put sand in front of the coast, the currents and waves will transport the sand towards the coast and build up new and larger beaches. This example is realised in front of the Dutch coast and is known as the sand engine. But nature will build them up to form a much stronger system than humans ever could. 
Instead of coasts, beaches and real estate being washed away, new land and larger beaches may be formed as a result of these processes. This requires design thinking, insights into the resilience of the coastal system, and understanding of the natural forces at play.
Second, urban design should reconsider the way we build our cities. Most urban areas do not have the capacity to “welcome” lots of water. And it is about lots of water, not the average shower or two. 
Until cyclones are gone, these enormous amounts of water need to be stored for a short period in dense urban areas. This goes beyond water-sensitive urban design.
Despite the benefits of water-sensitive design in many urban developments, when the going gets tough, this is just not enough. Water-sensitive urban design can barely cope with average rainfall peaks. So, in times of severe weather events, cities need to have additional spaces to store all this water.
The general rule here is to store every raindrop as long as possible where it falls.
<h2>How and where should we redesign our cities?</h2>
So, what can be done to cyclone-proof our cities? We can:
<ul>
<li>
Create larger green spaces, which are connected in a natural grid, increase the capacity of these green systems by adding eco-zones and wetlands, and redesign river and creek edges. Remove the concrete basins from every creek in the city.
</li>
<li>
Use large public spaces, such as parking spaces near shopping centres, ovals and football pitches, for temporarily capturing and storing excess rainwater. Small adjustments at the edges of these places are generally enough to capture the water.
</li>
<li>
Turn parking garages into temporary storage basins.
</li>
<li>
Redesign street profiles and introduce green and water-zones in streets. Out of every three-lane street, one lane can be transformed into a green lane, which can absorb rainwater. 
</li>
<li>
Redesign all impervious, sealed spaces and turn these into areas where the water can infiltrate the soil. Use permeable materials.
</li>
<li>
Think in an integrated way about street infrastructure, green and ecological systems, and the water system.
</li>
</ul>
These design interventions are not new and have been done abroad in cities such as Rotterdam, Hamburg or Stockholm. If we could add to these the redesign of roofs and gardens of industrial and residential estates and turn these into green roofs and rain gardens, the city would start to operate as a huge sponge. 
When it rains, the city absorbs the huge amounts of water and releases it slowly to the creek and river system after the rain has gone. This way, green spaces and water spaces not only play an important role during and just after a cyclone, but they then add quality to people’s immediate living environment. 
And maybe the best of all this: the bill Debbie and other natural disasters would present to government, industries and insurers could be much lower.
Rob Roggema is professor of Sustainable Urban Environments, University of Technology Sydney and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rob-roggema-351369" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

Cyclone Debbie: we can design cities to withstand these natural disasters

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Total household wealth (net worth) stood at a record $9,404.5 billion at the end of December 2016, up $328.1 billion or 3.5 percent over the quarter – marking the largest quarterly increase in net wealth in seven years.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">In per capita terms. CommSec estimates that wealth rose to a record $386,972 in the December quarter, up $12,227 over the quarter and up around $24,000 over the year.</div>
<div class="column">
 Households held a record $1,046 billion in cash and deposits at the end of December. Cash and deposit holdings represented 22.4 per cent of financial assets. A record $798.2 billion was held in shares.</div>
<div class="column">
 Foreigners held a record $792.2 billion of Aussie shares in the December quarter or 45.1 per cent of the total.</div>
<div class="column">
 Job vacancies: Job vacancies rose by 1.8 per cent to 185,600 in the three months to February – a 6-year high. Job vacancies are up 7.3 per cent on a year ago.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">New home sales: New home sales rose by 0.2 per cent in February. </div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.24.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.24.38%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">What does it all mean?</div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Bad news for the gloom &amp; doomsters – new data confirms that Australians have never been wealthier. While loans rose by 1.6 per cent in the December quarter, yet again this was exceeded by growth of financial assets. And on top of this, the value of homes soared by 4.5 per cent.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">In simple terms, debt may be up, but it is being used to purchase assets that are growing at a faster rate – not just homes but shares and other financial assets. Over the past two years financial assets have grown by $652 billion, well ahead of the $246 billion lift in loans. It is a point worth stressing to put more reason into the debate on household debt.</div>
<div class="column">
 But conservatism still reigns. The proportion of all financial assets in the economy held in cash and bank deposits has lifted to a 4-year high. In the December quarter over a fifth of all financial assets – 21.4 per cent – was held in cash and bank deposits. Aussie consumers, businesses and pension funds are all holding more than the “normal” proportion of financial assets in cash – especially companies and super funds.
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Foreign investors are still quite happy to hold Aussie shares. In fact foreigners now hold a record $765.6 billion of listed shares or just over 45 per cent of the total. In short, no worries about our economy from abroad.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The number of job vacancies has surged in the nine months to February and vacancies are now holding near 6-year highs. With more optimism on the global economy, business is shifting its focus to growth, investment and profitability. The lift in job vacancies certainly bodes well for hiring in coming months. Overall it is pretty clear that the job market remains in good shape.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Last year most of the jobs created were in part-time roles, with employers hiring more part timers and managing their workforce more carefully. The result was understandable given the degree of uncertainty that was prevalent with the Federal Budget, timing of an early election, and Brexit. However throughout the latter part of the year, employers started to add more full-timers. Stronger profitability and a focus on growth should give employers a degree of comfort to add full-time and permanent staff to the roster over 2017. <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.25.50%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.25.50%20AM.png" alt="">
Interestingly there are around 13,000 more vacancies than at the same time in 2016. The jobs being created are primarily in the services sector, with healthcare and admin roles leading the gains. These jobs tend to be spread over a raft of small and medium-sized businesses as well as large firms, so generally don’t attract the same degree of media attention as jobs lost in mining. Importantly the lift in commodity prices should support the resources sector. In fact the latest figures suggest that the number of jobs across the mining sector has bottomed and now lifting – albeit incrementally.
What do the figures show?
Financial Accounts:
Total household wealth (net worth) stood at a record $9,404.5 billion at the end of December 2016, up $328.1 billion or 3.5 per cent over the quarter – marking the largest quarterly increase in net wealth in seven years. In per capita terms. CommSec estimates that wealth rose to a record $386,972 in the December quarter, up $12,227 over the quarter.</div>
<div class="column">
 In real terms, the value of land and dwellings rose by $217 billion in the December quarter, while the value of financial assets rose by $29.3 billion. Net saving plus real wealth rose by $274.5 billion in the quarter.</div>
<div class="column">
 Household financial liabilities fell by $8.6 billion in the December quarter in real terms.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Households held a record $1,046 billion in cash and deposits at the end of December. Cash and deposit holdings represented 22.4 per cent of financial assets, up from 22.3 per cent in the September quarter and in line with the long-term average of 22.2 per cent.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Households held a record $798.2 billion in shares or 18.5 per cent of all financial assets, and above the 17.7 per cent average since the global financial crisis.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Pension fund (superannuation fund) assets rose by $52.7 billion to $2,013.1 billion in the December quarter. Cash and deposits stood at 14.8 per cent of financial assets, in line with the 14.8 per cent average since the global financial crisis but well above the long-term average of 9.7 per cent.</div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 3">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Foreigners held a record $792.2 billion of Aussie shares in the December quarter or 45.1 per cent of the total (long-term average 42.7 per cent). Share of bond holdings by foreigners rose from a 14-year low of 47.7 per cent in the September quarter to 47.8 per cent in the December quarter.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.27.00%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.27.00%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Job vacancies: 
Job vacancies rose by 1.8 per cent to 185,600 in the three months to February – a near 6-year high. Job vacancies are up 7.3 per cent on a year ago.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">In original terms, annual changes in vacancies across states and territories were: NSW (down 0.7 per cent); Victoria (up 10.5 per cent); Queensland (down 12.2 per cent); South Australia (down 2.3 per cent); Western Australia (up 0.7 per cent); Tasmania (up 32.9 per cent); Northern Territory (up 7.3 per cent) and ACT (up 5.9 per cent). Vacancies rose 13,100 in original terms over the year. In terms of industries, vacancies rose the most over the year in Health Care &amp; Social Assistance (up 4,700), Other Services (up 3,000), Administrative &amp; Support services (up 2,900) and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (up 1,900). Vacancies fell most in Retail trade (down 3,300), Accommodation &amp; Food services (down 1,400), and Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services (down 800).
New home sales
In seasonally-adjusted terms, new home sales rose by just 0.2 per cent in February. The number of detached house sales fell by 0.1 per cent while multi-unit dwelling sales lifted by 1 per cent. The Housing Industry Association reported: “Detached house sales increased in two out of five mainland states in February 2017 - Western Australia and Victoria. Detached house sales in WA increased by 11.3 per cent in February 2017 following a rise of 12.1 per cent in January. Note that these rates of growth are exaggerated by the extremely low base for detached house sales. Detached house sales in Victoria posted a monthly gain of 5.1 per cent in February. Elsewhere for the mainland states, in February detached house sales fell by 12.6 per cent in New South Wales and were down by 5.7 per cent in Queensland and 0.2 per cent in South Australia.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the Financial Accounts publication each quarter. The data covers assets, liabilities and financial flows for the key sectors of the economy. Figures on financial wealth help reveal the true state of household finances.</div>
<div class="column">
 The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases Job Vacancies data each quarter. The data is useful in gauging the strength of the job market.</div>
<div class="column">
 The Housing Industry Association releases data on the sales of new homes each month. The HIA collects the data each month from a sample of Australia's largest 100 home builders. The survey covers around 14 per cent of the home building industry. </div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.28.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.28.05%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 4">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
What are the implications for interest rates and investors? 
Record household wealth will continue to support spending. And it is clear that household balance sheets remain in very good shape. While the gloomsters focus on higher household debt, the simple fact is that money is being used to buy assets, assets that are providing better returns than the cost of the loans being taken out. Aussies aren’t borrowing in droves to buy luxury cars – although some indeed are. No, the majority are investing in shares, putting money to work in superannuation and investing in property.</div>
<div class="column">
 There is always a risk that asset values can fall as well as rise. But Aussies are well placed to deal with that situation should it eventuate.</div>
<div class="column">
 A number of retailers have noted that the ‘wealth effect’ has been positive for their sales – areas like furniture, cars, boats and electrical equipment. </div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

Job vacancies at 6-year highs: Savanth Sebastian

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
Australia has experienced a period of strong demand for commercial property which has led to firming yields and high prices.
There is still a substantial amount of investment capital looking for opportunity but the lack of availability of suitable stock has led to a reduced volume of transactions during 2016. Most property markets are, or are close to being, fully valued.
Going forward, rising bond rates and slow to moderate economic growth will have an impact on property markets. As growth stays below long term trends, and rates rise, prices will soften.
In this type of environment, leasing conditions will re-emerge as the primary driver of property outcomes. The key question is the extent to which growth in net effective rental income will offset the negative impact of rising interest rates on yields.
Cyclical factors will have a greater influence on prices in office property markets than that of rising interest rates on yields. The key is to invest in strong leasing markets with prospects for strong rental growth.
Sydney remains the pick of the markets. Demand has been improving moderately but with development virtually stopped and stock availability declining due to the Metro rail project and increased residential conversions, falling vacancy rates have meant strong rises in effective rents as leasing incentives reduce.
Vacancy rates are forecast to be less than 5% for the next three years, driving further rises in net effective rents and property prices. However, strong capital growth over the last year has reduced prospective returns. There are still opportunities for investment, and this is the phase where repositioning, major refurbishment or new developments can generate returns, but each opportunity needs to be examined on its own merits.
Last year, demand for office space was moderate in Melbourne. But, unlike Sydney, there has been plenty of development to satisfy requirements. In the short term, Melbourne will be hit by a weakening of demand as it absorbs the loss of the remaining car manufacturers and many associated suppliers, as well as a slowdown in residential construction.
Once that shock is absorbed, however, Melbourne will recover. It still retains many of the advantages—notably cheap land for residential, commercial and industrial property—which gave it a competitive advantage over Sydney in the provision of back-office services for national operations. Melbourne office demand will grow slightly more strongly than Sydney in the next decade but rent and property value growth will be inhibited by the plentiful availability of sites.
The Brisbane economy is still suffering from the continuing loss of demand from mining services. In the boom, 25% of Brisbane’s office space was occupied by companies servicing mining. Demand will be hit further when the inner Brisbane apartment market turns down.
Medium term, the prospects are good as Brisbane will benefit from strengthening activity in tourism, education services and agriculture. The short term will be difficult due to the existing oversupply of office space with little prospect of a substantial improvement in demand to absorb it. The vacancy rate is currently above 15 percent and will still be above 10 percent at the end of the decade.
The Perth economy is collapsing under the weight of the end of the mining boom. Investment has further to fall and the economy will stay weak for some time. During the boom, half of Perth office space was occupied by companies servicing mining. Much of that demand is now gone and the vacancies will take a decade to absorb. Rents and property values will fall a lot further.
Adelaide is suffering from weak demand and oversupplied office space. Although the worst may be over in terms of demand-side weakness, there is no prospect of sustained growth for a couple of years as the local economy deals with the closure of the GM Holden plant. The patrol boats, frigates and submarines projects will help but not until the end of the decade.
Canberra remains a difficult market. We are coming to the end of the period of substantial oversupply and A grade vacancies have tightened everywhere except at the airport, where there is still plenty of space. However, new construction is about to get under way in Civic, while some secondary properties lie vacant and are difficult to lease.
Retail property markets
Regional and sub-regional centres
Retail property remains a highly popular investment. The volume of transactions reached record levels over the last few years and only a shortage of regional centres for sale has constrained the market. Some existing owners are instead now ploughing additional capital into centre refurbishment/expansion projects.
Retail yields have firmed aggressively over the last few years and are averaging around that of the last market peak. Yet retailing conditions are not nearly so strong. Growth has been slowing in trend terms since early 2014. While larger retailers and chains are outperforming smaller retailers, there have nonetheless been several high profile failures in the last few months. 
The soft economy and weak household income growth will continue to constrain retail expenditure for the rest of this decade. Strong regional differences will emerge as former mining boom areas suffer, while those regions dependent on tourism, education services and other sectors that benefit from a lower Australian dollar enjoy stronger growth.
Shopping centre net operating incomes face further challenges from the poor performance of many anchor tenants and likely pressure on retailer profit margins (and hence their capacity to pay higher rent) from a lower Australian dollar. Changes in tenancy mix, a greater reliance on food and beverage retailers and service sector tenants, and costly upgrades will be required to protect against these threats.
Despite the challenges, centre incomes are, to a great extent, protected by anchor tenant rent and rents from non-expiring specialties on fixed annual escalations. Yields could remain low for some time but they will eventually follow bond rates up.
Large format retail
The large format retail property sector enjoyed another strong year in 2016 across a range of indicators. Strong demand from both consumers and retailers helped to push vacancy rates lower, in turn encouraging rental growth. Meanwhile, the investment market is buoyant.
However, the surge in consumer spending is now past and activity is at more moderate levels. This comes at a time when supply of centres is likely to surge after seven weak years. Reconfiguration of ex-Masters stores into centres could add up to 700,000 square metres of ‘new’ centre floor-space. Moreover, there are also 21 development sites to be accounted for.
Smaller existing centres and strip shopping locations are likely to be the main losers to the ‘new’ ex-Masters centres. Larger, dominant centres are unlikely to suffer as much. Bunnings is a clear winner in the whole process, with a major competitor gone and a great opportunity to pick up new sites easily.
Longer term, the outperformance of larger retailers and chains is expected to continue. Even so, it will be no match for the pace of growth in the 2000s.
On the investment side, demand remains strong. A record dollar value of transactions was achieved in 2015–16. The strength of investor demand has pushed down yields with further yield firming likely over the next 12 to 18 months. Rising bond rates, already putting upwards pressure on yields, will win out after that. Prime values are likely to stagnate rather than fall, but secondary centres could see a drop in prices.
Retail looks reasonably valued, with expected returns around current investment hurdle rates. Even so, retailing and retail property face major challenges. Large format retail has the best estimated return, reflecting its higher yield. Its low rent and expansion opportunities will help it to absorb the Masters properties and secure the longer term strength of the sector, but in the short term there are risks from the amount of reconfigured Masters floor-space likely to come on to the market.
 Industrial property markets
The years of strong investment returns from industrial property are coming to an end, with the period of falling interest rates that had underwritten firming yields and strongly rising asset values now over.
Softer future yields will have a negative impact on valuations and also on construction feasibility, requiring higher pre-lease effective rents to underwrite the financial feasibility of development projects. The transition to higher rents will be relatively smooth, though the risk is that it may take a year or longer. If this occurs, falling vacancies would eventually deliver the necessary step-up in rents.
Industrial property development is running close to demand. Ready availability of land and development competition is keeping a lid on residual land prices, rents and property values, suppressing a cyclical upswing. That makes it less risky but slightly overvalued in relation to market hurdle rates.
Summary
This is an uncertain time for property investors. After a long period of falling interest rates driving firming yields, we are on the threshold of a phase of rising interest rates. The uncertainty is how quickly and by how much interest rates will rise. When they do, yields will soften but that will be offset by the impact of rising rents.
This suggests that yields may have a little further to firm before the impact of rising interest rates comes through.  Meanwhile, continuing soft economic growth means continuing weak demand, in the transition to a post-mining boom economy. The result is marked differences in performance between industries and regions.
Damian Horton is head of property, Cromwell Property Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.cromwell.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

2017 Australian commercial property market outlook: Cromwell's Damian Horton

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/73186/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Urban planners have been blamed for a lot of things, including higher housing costs. But the solution is to refine the process, not sideline the good planning that makes cities safe and liveable.
Modern urban planning first came about to improve industrial cities that had become unsafe, unhealthy and essentially unliveable. However, new policies in Australia and New Zealand view planning as a cause of urban problems, not a solution. Both treat urban planning as a hindrance, which supposedly slows down economic growth and is the main reason for unaffordable housing.
Why did urban planning fall out of favour?
Several underlying factors explain this aversion to planning.
First, many urban areas developed under the current planning system haven’t produced a very liveable environment. It is difficult to make a case for the value of planning with few good examples. In some cases this isn’t bad planning; rather, traffic engineering has taken precedence.
But what might this approach mean for future development of Antipodean cities? While urban planning may have fallen short of its goals over recent decades, policy that marginalises urban planning exposes us to long-term social and environmental risks.
Cities in Australia and New Zealand do face particular challenges: both countries are highly urbanised, 89% and 86% respectively. A closer look at land use patterns and infrastructures show they are mostly suburban – closer to Houston than Hong Kong. Therefore, urban policy faces the challenge of governing suburbia.
Many areas of Auckland, for instance, are designed in such a way that residents have little choice but to drive everywhere. They are unsafe for children or seniors to navigate. And vast amounts of space are allocated to parking for private vehicles.
This is the cumulative result of decades of infrastructure decision-making that prioritises private vehicle movement over safer and more efficient public transport. Residents are living with the consequences of this, and current policy risks more of the same for future residents.
New shared spaces, cycle lanes and frequent transit services are a dramatic improvement. However, greater change is needed to make an impact on everyday life for those who live and work outside the city centre.
Second, delays in planning approvals are notorious for adding significant cost and uncertainty to property development. But inefficient delivery of planning services should not be confused with overly stringent planning rules.
Planning rules are intended to mitigate environmental damage and improve the quality of development. Rather than getting rid of planning, delays can be reduced through better resourcing, training and management of planning departments.
Also, approvals are only one step in delivering new housing. Fast-tracked consenting in Auckland’s special housing areas resulted in 30,000 consented dwellings, but only 1,300 new homes were built over almost three years.
This shows that other factors slow down the pace of development. These include capacity in the construction sector, local construction labour and delays due to land banking.
Putting affordability claims to the test
Poor urban planning is claimed to be the primary cause of unaffordable housing. It is said to be linked to higher house prices and lower economic performance.
Evidence to support these claims shows a correlation – but not a causal link – between the restrictiveness of planning regulations and housing affordability.
The simple correlation ignores other factors driving house prices: speculative investment behaviour, incentives for land banking, record-low mortgage rates and strong cultural biases toward home ownership.
Looking to land supply as the primary policy lever to fix this may do little to moderate house prices. It also overlooks more important causes.
Urban expansion also has implications for transport: it is expensive and inefficient to leave transport authorities playing catch-up to serve new growth areas.
The politics of growth further complicate expansion of land supply and tend to distribute new growth haphazardly. Most residents agree that cities need to allow for future growth, but deciding where this should go is contentious. Recent growth in New Zealand and Australian cities has been accommodated mostly in the city centre and at the urban fringe.
Only a small share of growth is in existing suburbs. Suburban residents (or at least a vocal contingent) often oppose new growth. This is unsurprising since intensification counters the very reason for living in the suburbs – more space and fewer people.
Regardless, urban policy needs to acknowledge the political tensions in accommodating growth.
Good planning involves citizens
National urban policy is important to manage land use and infrastructure differently in cities. Policies don’t have to be prescriptive. They can also enable local authorities to govern better with greater devolution of power and fundraising capabilities.
Scaling back urban planning is an understandable but disappointingly short-term response. In many cases planning hasn’t delivered what it promised. Measures to reduce delays and improve the quality of the built environment are needed. However, policy that simply reduces the role of planning may result in significant long-term costs.
Such an approach risks environmental damage, as well as uncoordinated land and transport development. The next generation living in our cities will pay for it.
Informed citizens are essential to support good planning and infrastructure decisions. For the general public, however, local regulations on urban planning, infrastructure and environmental quality are painfully dull. But they are also fundamental in shaping your everyday life: where you can afford to live, your daily commute, and the chance of air pollution shortening your lifespan.
For those without time to go through lengthy consultation documents and plans, local advocacy groups are leading the way to translate these concisely to the public. Auckland’s Generation Zero is a good example. This organisation is advocating for inter-generational equity and environmental sustainability in local planning and transport, with targeted campaigns on important projects and planning decisions.
Negotiating the trade-offs and politics of urban growth is always a challenge for policy, but quality public engagement is crucial to build cities that are liveable, affordable and environmentally sustainable over the long term.
Jenny McArthur is the Research Associate at University College London (UCL) and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jenny-mcarthur-206031" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

Sidelining planners makes for poorer urban policy, and future generations will pay the price: Jenny McArthur

A mix of Gold Coast locals, fly-in, fly-out purchasers from Sydney and Melbourne, and Brisbane-based families has driven early sales success at Broadbeach's newest apartment tower, Lumara.

The 26-level project, a joint venture between builder-developer 5Point Projects and Bourke Projects, comprises just 37 luxury residences and is attracting a buyer profile that is looking for exclusivity, above the most amenity-rich suburb on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150454 project_image_fid=364156]

Jamie Bourke, Director of Bourke Projects, says every buyer secured so far intends to use Lumara as a lock-up-and-leave residence, combining holiday use with the ability to work remotely when required.

“The size of the apartments, both half- and full-floor options, and the different zones within the floorplans, lends itself perfectly to dedicated home office setups and multi-generational family holidays,” Bourke says.

That flexibility has become a key drawcard for affluent buyers seeking a second residence on the Gold Coast without sacrificing the ability to conduct business away from their primary home base.

The absence of holiday letting within the building has also resonated strongly with purchasers.

“This type of buyer doesn't need to generate holiday rental income,” Bourke says. “They're paying for exclusivity, privacy and certainty around who their neighbours are.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150454 project_image_fid=366491]

The strong demand comes amid broader shifts in the high-end apartment market following the Federal Budget announcements in May.

“We were already seeing strong enquiry from high-net-worth buyers, but that has only accelerated since the policy changes,” Bourke says.

“A lot of those buyers are looking to place more capital into premium lifestyle assets rather than investment-grade stock that has been targeted by the Federal Government.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150454 project_image_fid=366486]

Designed by Cottee Parker, Lumara adopts a slender, sculpted form with an emphasis on natural materials suited to its beachfront setting. The architectural approach draws on coastal influences, with a palette of stone, timber and concrete selected for durability and the ability to weather over time.

Apartments are limited to three and four-bedroom configurations, with a maximum of two residences per floor through the mid-levels and a selection of full-floor and dual-level homes in the upper levels. All apartments are oriented to the north to maximise natural light, cross-ventilation and views across the ocean, city skyline and hinterland.

A two-level amenity offering is positioned high within the building on levels 20 and 21, conceived as a sky wellness retreat. Facilities include a magnesium pool, spa, sauna and steam rooms, alongside more social spaces such as a private dining room, resident lounge, workspaces and outdoor barbecue areas integrated with landscaped greenery.

The uppermost levels are reserved for larger-format residences, including several full-floor homes and a dual-level penthouse with its own private wellness features and recreational spaces.

&nbsp;

To give buyers confidence, 5Point and Bourke commenced construction ahead of the apartments launching to the market, a sure-fire way to prove they mean business, and the building will be delivered. They are targeting a 2028 completion date.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150454]

Joel Robinson

Locals, interstate holiday makers, drive early sales at Lumara, Broadbeach's newest luxury apartment tower

Often when it comes to purchasing property, the biggest barrier to entry is the deposit. Buyers of established homes typically aim for a 20 per cent deposit to avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance, while most property transactions require around a 10 per cent deposit when contracts are exchanged.

The off-the-plan market works differently, with buyers typically paying a deposit during construction and settling the balance upon completion. As completion approaches at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/fabbrica-fitzroy-369-gore-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">Fabbrica Fitzroy</a>, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pace-development-group">Pace</a> is making it easier for buyers to secure a residence through a deposit-matching incentive. Purchasers need only contribute a five per cent deposit*, with Pace matching the remaining five per cent.

The offer comes as Pace unveils a completed display apartment and townhouse, now available for inspection by appointment ahead of the project's Spring completion.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371009]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/winwood-mckenzie-architecture">Winwood Mckenzie</a> and landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/acre">Acre</a>, Fabbrica draws on Fitzroy’s industrial and manufacturing history, incorporating references to the former Argyle Shirt Factory and Life Savers Confectionery Company that once occupied the site.

The development comprises 85 residences, spanning low-maintenance apartments through to larger-format townhouses with private street access and double lock-up garages, a relatively uncommon offering in Fitzroy’s higher-density apartment market.

Pace says the project has been designed to appeal to buyers seeking inner-city convenience without sacrificing space, flexibility, or amenity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371016]

Inside the residences, Winwood Mckenzie has focused on adaptable layouts and integrated detailing, with features including custom joinery, and concealed storage solutions. The material palette leans into warm, tactile finishes intended to complement the building’s industrial architectural language.

Fabbrica’s rooftop amenity is a key part of the project offering. Spanning around 800 sqm, the communal rooftop includes a private dining room, communal kitchen, lounge spaces, work-from-home zones, and outdoor dining areas overlooking the Melbourne CBD skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371017]

Landscape architecture studio Acre has introduced a layered rooftop garden designed to soften the urban setting while creating a more communal environment for residents.

The Fitzroy location also positions residents within walking distance of Brunswick Street, Smith Street, parks, cafés, galleries, and public transport, while remaining only minutes from Melbourne’s CBD. The project has an enviable Walk Score of 96.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371025]

Pace, which is also delivering the project as builder, has developed more than 100 projects across Melbourne over the past three decades. The vertically integrated approach has become increasingly common among developers seeking greater control over construction delivery amid broader market pressures affecting the apartment sector.

The strikingly contemporary Gore Street development is now around 70 per cent complete, with purchasers expected to move into their new homes in Spring 2026. A limited number of residences remain available under the current deposit match offer.

*Conditions apply in relation to the deposit match offer.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=139552]

Pace offers five per cent deposit match at Fabbrica Fitzroy ahead of Spring completion

Sydney developer Hyecorp's roots on the Lower North Shore stretch back three generations, and that deep understanding of the market continues to shape where and how it develops today.

From high-rise towers to boutique apartment projects, the family-run developer has built its reputation by focusing on a part of Sydney it knows intimately. Founded by Michael Abolakian in the early 1990s, Hyecorp is now led by his sons Stephen, Troy and Patrick.

Stephen Abolakian, joint managing director alongside Troy, has spent more than two decades in the business, overseeing development, planning, finance, marketing and sales.

Abolakian says the developer's disciplined focus on where it chooses to operate has been, and continues to be, one of Hyecorp's greatest strengths.

“We know the buyer profile exceptionally well,” Abolakian says.

“The demographics between places like Willoughby, Chatswood, St Leonards and Roseville are very similar. There are nuances between suburbs and projects, but culturally and from a buyer perspective, there’s a strong overlap.”

That buyer has historically been overwhelmingly owner-occupier driven.

Unlike many Sydney apartment developers that have traditionally relied heavily on investor demand, Hyecorp’s projects have typically attracted downsizers, upsizers, rightsizers and family owner-occupiers seeking long-term homes rather than short-term investments.

“Historically, investors have been a much smaller portion of our demand profile,” Abolakian says.

“We design for owner-occupiers. We don’t design for yield, we design for comfort, amenity, family living and long-term usability.”

That philosophy extends well beyond apartment layouts.

From landscaping and communal gardens to shared amenities and circulation spaces, Hyecorp’s developments are designed around how people actually live, something Abolakian believes has become increasingly important in Sydney’s apartment market.

“There was probably a period where having an approved project in market was enough,” he says.

“There wasn’t as much competition and if you built it, buyers would come. That’s no longer the case.”

“There’s more supply in the pipeline now, particularly with TOD precincts and low and mid-rise reforms opening up opportunities across Sydney. Buyers have more choice, so if you get the product wrong, they’ll simply go elsewhere.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110379 project_image_fid=311393]

The shift has forced developers to become more sophisticated in how they approach apartment design, particularly as owner-occupier expectations continue to rise.

For Hyecorp, that means thinking beyond who the buyer is today and designing for who they may become in five or 10 years' time.

“People buying now often aren’t moving in for several years,” Abolakian says.

“You might have a young couple buying today, but by the time they move in they may have children, older children, or changing lifestyle needs. You’ve got to think about how families evolve.”

That thinking also shapes Hyecorp’s approach to amenity, which positions wellness at the forefront.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149594 project_image_fid=362634]

While resort-style facilities have become increasingly common marketing tools across Sydney apartment developments, Abolakian says the challenge is ensuring amenities are genuinely usable and appropriate for the scale of the project.

“If amenities are done right, they can materially improve the living experience,” he says, adding however that if you&nbsp;overdo it or get it wrong, you can end up with facilities nobody uses that simply create ongoing strata costs.”

That balance is something Hyecorp is aiming to strike with projects like Roseville Avenue, one of the group's upcoming Lower North Shore developments, which Abolakian describes as bringing a resort-style living experience into a metropolitan setting.

“It’s about creating something that feels special without being excessive,” he says.

“Good gardens, quality apartments, thoughtful amenity. Creating that resort feeling in a metro location.”

<img alt="Hyecorp" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="13c4c0f3-b1b7-44cf-9344-0b3d1d07797a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-02%20at%2012.14.57%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=9OLWjyj2bYkDV35F78WJnyMSPfc2bJ2z" />

The focus on owner-occupier product comes as Sydney’s apartment market continues to navigate a difficult development environment.&nbsp;For Hyecorp, maintaining an in-house operating model across construction, sales, marketing and development management has become increasingly important in navigating that environment.

“We’ve always believed in keeping a lot of the process in-house,” Abolakian says.

“It creates efficiencies, but it also creates quality control. You can make faster decisions and ensure the end product stays aligned with the original vision.”

Despite the challenges, Abolakian believes demand for quality owner-occupier apartments across Sydney remains strong beneath the surface, particularly across established Lower North Shore suburbs where downsizers continue to seek new housing options close to existing communities.

“There are definitely people waiting,” he says.

“Once some of the broader uncertainty settles, whether that’s the global environment or some of the local economic noise, I think the right projects will perform very strongly.”

Hyecorp currently has three residential developments on the market across Sydney’s Lower North Shore.&nbsp;Audrey, St Leonards, positioned opposite Newlands Park, is nearing completion and preparing to welcome its first residents, with the project now almost sold out.

Hyecorp has also recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/celine-chatswood-37-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">Celine Chatswood</a>, an architectural tower, while continuing to deliver&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet Roseville</a>, a more boutique scale of development with just 34 apartments.

Why Hyecorp continues to back Sydney's Lower North Shore apartment market

South East Queensland’s apartment market is entering a new phase defined by rising prices, constrained affordability, and mounting pressure on the construction pipeline, according to RPM Group’s latest SEQ Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report.

The May 2026 report highlights a widening divide between what buyers can afford and what developers can viably deliver, with detached house prices continuing to push more buyers toward apartments across Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast.

RPM says Brisbane’s median house price has reached around $1.5 million, accelerating the shift toward higher-density housing as buyers are increasingly priced out of the detached market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135094 project_image_fid=356540]

Median unit prices rose across all three major SEQ markets in the March quarter. Brisbane City recorded the strongest annual growth, with median unit prices climbing 21 per cent to $862,000, while the Gold Coast reached the highest overall median at $950,000, up 17 per cent year-on-year. The Sunshine Coast followed at $870,000, representing annual growth of nine per cent.

RPM noted the affordability gap between houses and units remains significant, with detached homes commanding premiums of 67 per cent in Brisbane and 68 per cent on the Gold Coast relative to apartments.

The report suggests this price disparity is increasingly consolidating buyer demand within the apartment market, particularly among downsizers and owner-occupiers.

“Demand is real. Supply is moving. But they’re operating on different timelines and the gap between what’s being built and what buyers can afford is the defining tension in this market right now,” RPM Queensland and NSW Managing Directors Peter Neale and Clinton Trezise said in the report.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150787 project_image_fid=366230]

While approvals and commencements are strengthening, RPM argues the delivery pipeline remains constrained by construction costs, labour shortages, and extended build timelines.

Apartment approvals across Queensland increased 86 per cent over the year to February 2026, reaching 12,682 approvals, the highest level recorded since 2016. Brisbane overtook the Gold Coast as the state’s most active apartment approval market, with nearly 5,000 apartments approved over the past 12 months.

Unit commencements also strengthened considerably, rising 48 per cent year-on-year to 5,453 commencements in the December 2025 quarter, the highest level since 2018.

However, RPM’s research found apartment delivery timeframes have expanded sharply compared to the previous cycle. Projects are now averaging around 30 months from approval to completion, compared to roughly 20 months a decade ago.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=367515]

The number of units under construction has climbed to approximately 31,530 dwellings, nearing the previous 2016 peak, though projects are remaining in the pipeline for considerably longer.

Construction costs continue to weigh heavily on feasibility. RPM found the average apartment construction cost in Greater Brisbane reached $630,000 per dwelling in 2025, exceeding both Sydney and Melbourne. Coastal Queensland markets, including the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, were even higher at an average of $817,418 per apartment due to the prevalence of larger premium product.

The report also points to increasing pressure from Olympic-related infrastructure spending ahead of Brisbane 2032, with labour competition expected to intensify over the next several years.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370960]

ANZ Associate Director of Property Daniel Gradwell said the underlying demand drivers across South East Queensland remain strong, supported by interstate migration, downsizers, and population growth.

“The challenge is bringing enough supply to market to meet that demand, and nothing on the horizon makes that straightforward,” Gradwell said.

RPM’s analysis found the affordability challenge is becoming more pronounced in the new apartment market itself, with only three per cent of surveyed new apartments priced below $1 million.

Instead, the market is increasingly concentrated in higher price brackets, with the most common new apartment price band across SEQ sitting between $1.5 million and $1.75 million. Around half of all new apartment stock surveyed is priced below $2 million.

The report suggests developers are not necessarily avoiding lower price points by choice, but because current construction economics make delivering affordable apartments increasingly difficult at scale.

Rental conditions also remain tight across the region. Median rents for one-bedroom apartments rose 12 per cent in Brisbane over the past year to $580 per week, while Gold Coast one-bedroom rents increased nine per cent to $630.

Despite rising rents, RPM noted bond lodgements have generally trended downward over the past five years, indicating more apartments are being absorbed by owner-occupiers rather than retained as investor-held rental stock.

Looking ahead, RPM expects projects targeting the mid-market owner-occupier segment between $1.25 million and $2 million to remain the most viable part of the market, while premium projects in highly constrained coastal or riverfront locations continue to attract demand.

“Construction costs are rewriting the feasibility rulebook across Greater Brisbane, and with little relief in sight, only projects in the right price band, right location, and with presales secured early will make it through,” the report concludes.

SEQ apartment demand outpacing affordable supply as construction timelines stretch: RPM

Camberwell Junction has long been the epicentre of amenity in Melbourne’s Boroondara region.

For nearly a century, it has drawn both locals and visitors, anchored by the Camberwell Sunday Market, which first operated in 1929 and quickly became a fixture of the suburb’s identity. Over time, the Junction evolved into one of Melbourne’s most established retail and lifestyle precincts, now comprising more than 400 stores and over 300 commercial businesses.

Despite that depth of amenity, one thing has remained notably limited: the supply of new apartments.

In a suburb defined by its heritage streetscapes and tightly held residential stock, new development opportunities have been scarce, particularly within the core of the Junction itself. That lack of supply has left a gap in the market for larger, design-led apartments suited to downsizers and owner-occupiers wanting to remain in the area.

Boutique developer Above Zero identified that gap when it secured a prime site on Burke Road, in the heart of Camberwell Junction.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368543]

The site has a long planning history. Various proposals have been put forward over more than a decade, many of which were knocked back by the City of Boroondara, with initial applications dating back to 2015. Above Zero acquired the site in 2022 and returned with a revised scheme, refining both the building’s height and its ground-level interface to better align with Council expectations.

That process has culminated in approval for Camberwell House.

The Cera Stribley-designed development will deliver 57 residences on a 1,950 sqm site within the Camberwell Activity Centre, placing it directly within one of Melbourne’s most established retail and transport hubs.

It is expected to be one of the only new apartment developments to launch in the Junction in recent years, reinforcing the rarity of new supply in the precinct. Currently, there are just a handful of projects on the market in Camberwell, underscoring the significance of a development of this scale and positioning.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368544]

Camberwell House has been conceived with a clear focus on larger-format apartments. The project will offer a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, alongside a limited number of penthouses, targeting owner-occupiers seeking scale rather than volume-driven product.

The building’s vertical presence will also set it apart.

Positioned on Burke Road, the development is set to become one of the taller buildings in its immediate context, allowing for elevated outlooks across Melbourne’s CBD skyline and toward the Dandenong Ranges. In a precinct characterised by lower-scale built form, that height provides a point of differentiation, particularly for buyers seeking outlook and natural light.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368568]

Architecture has been led by Cera Stribley, with interiors by GOLDEN and landscape design by Florian Wild. The design approach centres on material consistency and restraint, with residences oriented to maximise light, ventilation and connection to outdoor spaces.

Full-height glazing and generous terraces form a key part of that strategy, allowing apartments to extend beyond their internal footprint and engage with the surrounding environment.

Beyond the private residences, a significant component of the project is its amenity offering.

Above Zero has positioned Camberwell House as a “complete living environment”, incorporating a full floor dedicated to resident facilities. At the centre of that is a wellness zone, including a 12.5-metre lap pool, spa, sauna and treatment spaces, alongside a gym and recovery-focused amenities.

This level of amenity is more commonly associated with inner-city developments, rather than established middle-ring suburbs like Camberwell.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368588]

Additional shared spaces include a private library lounge, dining and entertaining areas, and an indoor golf simulator. A self-contained guest suite has also been incorporated, allowing residents to accommodate visiting family or friends without impacting their primary living space.

The inclusion of these facilities reflects a broader shift in buyer expectations.

As more downsizers look to transition from larger family homes into apartments, there is increasing demand for developments that offer not just a residence, but a lifestyle. That includes access to wellness, social and entertaining spaces within the building itself, reducing the reliance on external amenity while still maintaining proximity to established precincts.

Camberwell House is positioned to benefit from both.

Its location places it within immediate walking distance of Camberwell Junction’s retail and dining offering, as well as public transport connections, including tram and train services. That combination of internal amenity and external convenience is central to its appeal.

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-150" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:55d7c6ac-8e6d-4881-ad49-0ed9bf66d1cc-74" dir="auto">
Jellis Craig Projects Director Stephen Bowtell is handling sales for the project and says Camberwell House offers a rare entry point into one of Melbourne’s most tightly held markets.

“Buyers are recognising that Camberwell House offers something they simply haven’t seen before in Boroondara,”&nbsp;Bowtell&nbsp;says.

“It combines a level of resident amenity and service typically associated with Melbourne’s premium inner-city developments, while being positioned right in the heart of Camberwell Junction.

“The response to the concierge offering has been particularly strong. Buyers appreciate not only the convenience, but also the sense of security and peace of mind that comes from having a dedicated presence in the building every day.

“When you combine that with the wellness facilities, the exceptional arrival experience, and panoramic views across both the CBD skyline and the Dandenong Ranges, it creates a lifestyle proposition that is genuinely unique within the local market.”
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4896]

Jonathan Chancellor

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News