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When the Australian Bureau of Statistics recently published its Preliminary Rebased 2011 Estimated Resident Population (ERP), much of the media attention was on the 294,000-person difference in the ABS’s earlier estimates of the population (based on a 2006 census base) and the revised number based on the results of the 2011 census. This difference between the previous estimate and the new rebased number is known as the intercensal error.
However, this does not mean that the growth between 2006 and 2011 was 294,000 persons fewer than the ABS originally indicated. A change by the ABS to a more accurate methodology in undertaking its post-census survey to clarify unrecorded census data suggests that the method used in the previous census overstated the population by about 247,000 persons at the 2006 census. As a result, the actual magnitude of the intercensal error between 2006 and 2011 is likely to be much lower than that suggested by the 2006 and 2011 census counts.
For forecasters such as BIS Shrapnel, who use population growth data in estimating household formation and consequently the underlying demand for new dwellings, an accurate measure of the population is important in determining whether there is an underlying undersupply or oversupply of dwellings. This in turn drives our forecasts for new dwelling construction and prices.
At face value, the downward revision to the June 2011 population would imply much lower growth between 2006 and 2011, leading to lower demand for dwellings and therefore a lower undersupply (or higher oversupply) of dwellings. However, there is more to the numbers than meets the eye, and a description can be found in the technical notes section of the ABS’s Australian Demographic Statistics publication (Cat 3101.0).
In calculating the ERP, the ABS starts with the census count at the person’s location on census night and then places them back to their usual address. The ABS also undertakes a post-enumeration survey (PES) to determine the level at which population was missed or counted more than once. Typically, more people are missed than double counted, so this is called the undercount and is added to the population enumerated on census night.
The technical notes highlight that due to a more effective method (automated data linking or ADL) in conducting the 2011 census PES, the net undercount was 374,500 persons in the 2011 census. This compares with an undercount of 549,600 persons at the 2006 census, suggesting that the previous method overstated the undercount in the 2006 census, and by extension overstated the ERP in 2006.
A statistical impact study by the ABS took a sample of PES records of the 2011 census and processed them using the 2006 method in order to compare the impact on the undercount using the 2011 ADL method. While there were some other changes between the 2006 and 2011 census that also made a minor difference, the result suggested that the undercount measured by the 2011 ADL method was around 247,000 persons (subject to the standard error of the sample) below that using the 2006 method.
This would indicate that the impact of the new ADL method accounts for around 247,000 persons of the 294,000-person intercensal error, and that the actual intercensal error assuming a consistent PES methodology is in the order of 47,000 persons. Consequently, rather than being out by 294,000 persons in the estimate of population growth between 2006 and 2011, the error is only 47,000 persons, with the other 247,000 being accounted for by a lower actual figure in 2006 due to the overestimation of the census undercount. 
 
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The chart below shows a comparison of the population growth line based on the ABS estimate of population between 2006 and 2011 before the 2011 population was rebased after the census, and population if the 2006 census population estimate was also rebased.
<img src="/images/stories/2012/09/bissept17.png" width="470">
Using a consistent PES method, the rebased population growth between 2006 and 2011 was 1.75% per annum, compared with the initially calculated growth of 1.79% per annum using the 2006 census base. This compares with the lower 1.52% per annum based on the overstated 2006 population using the previous PES method and more correct 2011 population.
As a result the much lower preliminary rebased ERP for 2011 has had limited impact on BIS Shrapnel’s calculated demand/supply balance across the states. Despite the overestimation of the population at 2006, the number of households (in our case defined as the number of occupier dwellings) was not affected as it is derived from a physical census count.
With all but 47,000 of the ABS’s estimated population growth between 2006 and 2011 still coming through, total household formation (and therefore underlying demand) will have only been slightly below that estimated due to the lower estimated population growth, with the end result being that the national deficiency at June will not be significantly lower than originally indicated.
It should also be noted that the intercensal error was concentrated in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia – i.e. population growth was lower than originally indicated in these states. This also suggests that population growth between 2006 and 2011 in the other states and territories was actually close to, or slightly higher than<ins cite="mailto:Martin%20Bregozzo">,</ins> that originally estimated.
With the 2011 data on population and households now available, BIS Shrapnel has re-examined the new household formation rates coming through over the 2006 to 2011 censuses. The revised household formation rates suggest that the dwelling demand/supply balance at June 2011 was similar to that outlined earlier this year in our Residential Property Prospects and Building in Australia reports, with New South Wales in deficiency (although at a lower level than originally estimated) and most other states close to balance or slight oversupply. We estimated that Victoria was also in deficiency (although declining quickly) at June 2011, although the revision indicates that the market was close to balance in 2011 and have moved into an underlying oversupply in 2011-12.
Angie Zigomanis is senior manager of <a title="BIS Shrapnel" href="https://www.bis.com.au/" target="_blank">BIS Shrapnel.</a>
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angiezigomanis-VT64gGbExQ

The case of the missing 294,000 missing Australians

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There have been several reports on the number of households as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 census in relation to estimating the number of households nationwide. The most commonly reported number of households reported is 7.8 million.
Researchers and analysts have been using this number as a justification or otherwise of claims that the housing market is in undersuply are legitimate. However, a pure count of households or occupied dwellings in itself doesn't say much at all. A count of households and occupied dwellings just tells you that one equals the other. Therefore it doesn’t measure whether there is any underlying undersupply. However, an oversupply can be measured if there are a rising number of unoccupied dwellings.
Some analysts compare their count of the number of households with the National Housing Supply Council estimate of the underlying level of households to provide evidence that the market is in oversupply. The 7.8 million households at the census normally bandied about by commentators compares with the National Housing Supply Council underlying figure of 8.8 million households to imply the NHSC overstated households at 2011 by 1 million, and therefore its estimate of undersupply was actually an excess.
However, a closer look at the 7.8 million households quoted by most industry commentators shows that this figure is just plain wrong. This is the result of these commentators plucking a headline figure from the census data without taking a closer look at the numbers behind the numbers.
When looking at household numbers to determine demand, the number of households will equate to the number of occupied dwellings – i.e. when a household is created it needs to occupy a dwelling. However, the figure that most commentators refer to for the number of households falls well short of the number of occupied dwellings on census night. To find this figure, we need to examine the census data based on place of enumeration.
The place of enumeration count is the physical count of all households in the dwellings where they were counted on census night. This shows that there were 7.8 million households nationally. However, this actually only refers to the households for which they have obtained household structure information. There are two other categories of households occupying dwellings that have not been accounted for. These are "not stated" households and "visitor only" households.
“Not stated” households are dwellings where the census collector has confirmed that someone was present, but was not able to get a completed census form to confirm the household structure. This happens across all dwelling types but is most prevalent in high-rise apartment buildings, where it is difficult to access the dwellings to drop off and pick up the forms (which is why the internet was introduced as a means of filling out the forms). While the type of household has not been confirmed, there is nevertheless a household in the dwelling. There were 279,000 “not stated” households on census night across Australia.
“Visitor only” households are households where all the occupants are not at their usual place of dwelling. This could be overseas visitor households (but not necessarily short- term holiday households), dwellings where the occupant might be away for work, households that were at their holiday house on census night, etc. While not permanently living at the dwelling, they nevertheless reflect demand for dwellings as there will always be a component of the population occupying and requiring a dwelling on this basis. There were 143,000 “visitor only” households on census night.
When comparing households over time, a further adjustment can be made in 2011 for persons who were overseas on holidays. The high Australian dollar has meant that a greater proportion of Australians were overseas on census night. At the 2001 and 2006 census, around 1.7% of Australians were recorded as being temporarily overseas on census night. However, on the 2011 census night, around 2.1% of residents were temporarily overseas. Based on the 2011 population, this reflects an extra 100,000 or so persons, or around 40,000 additional households that weren't counted. Remember that the household count reflects the physical count of occupied dwellings on census night, so the dwelling would have been recorded as empty. Conversely, subtracting these households from the unoccupied dwelling count reduces the unoccupied dwellings from equivalent to 11.4% of households to 10.8% of households, which is below the 11% of households at the 2006 census – another indicator of a tightening market over the last five years.
Adding all of these components – 7.76 million households counted, 279,000 “not stated” households, 143,000 “visitor only” households, and an allowance for an extra 40,000 households being on an overseas holiday on census night than there would normally be – provides a total houshold count, and therefore occupied dwelling count, of 8.22 million occupied dwellings.
This is still well below the NHSC underlying household count of 8.8 million households in its most recent State of Supply report (although closer to BIS Shrapnel’s pre-census figure of 8.3 million that was used to calculate the underlying stock deficiency in the June 2012 editions of our Residential Property Prospects and Building in Australia reports). However, it should be remembered that the NHSC figure (and BIS Shrapnel’s) is not an estimate of actual households, but an estimate of the underlying requirement for households, which is the number of households that would normally be expected in an unconstrained environment – i.e. under normal dwelling supply and affordability circumstances.
BIS Shrapnel’s forecasts of households used in calculating underlying demand are based on trends over time in household formation rates across different age groups, which accounts for changes in demographic trends as well as the likely impact of housing affordability constraints on household formation. In many states it is assumed that the reduction in household formation between 2006 and 2011 due to a deterioration of affordability (both owning and renting) has now become permanent and is unlikely to recover in the foreseeable future. This then places most of the states at, or close to balance, in most states.
Based on the 2011 census data, BIS Shrapnel’s estimate of the deficiency at June 2011 is 37,000 dwellings, concentrated in New South Wales, where the number of households appears lower than it otherwise would be (than explained by prevailing trends in household formation rates) due to people being forced to squeeze into the existing dwelling stock.
A national deficiency of 37,000 dwellings at 2011 was insufficient to drive any upturn in dwelling construction in 2011-12. However, declining new dwelling completions, even at the lower level of new household formation rates derived from the 2011 census, have fallen below underlying demand in 2011-12, and a rising deficiency is now emerging. As the deficiency continues to rise, it will first be seen in vacancy rates (already evident in Brisbane and Perth), before flowing through to rental growth, construction, and some level of price growth.
 Angie Zigomanis is senior manager of <a title="BIS Shrapnel" href="https://www.bis.com.au/" target="_blank">BIS Shrapnel.</a>
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How the 2011 census shows Australia's housing market is undersupplied: BIS Shrapnel's Angie Zigomanis

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First-home buyers represent a key driver of the residential market, underpinning demand for entry-level dwellings, which in turn creates increased demand across the market. While first-home buyers have averaged only 16% of finance for residential property over the last 20 years, they have a disproportionate impact on turnover activity and consequently prices.
While the focus on the reasons for the decline in first-home buyer demand in the media has been on the impact of the rises in interest rates over 2009-10 on affordability, the majority of the decline has been due to the demand brought forward by the First Home Owner’s Grant Boost Scheme. Total loans to first-home buyers have averaged around 130,000 per annum over the last five years. However, loans to first-home buyers rose to 190,000 in calendar 2009 during the operation of the boost.
As the pool of potential first-home buyers is finite at around the 130,000 per annum level, it means that a future demand of around 60,000 first-home buyers had been brought forward to take advantage of the boost. With about 90,000 to 95,000 loans to first-home buyers expected over each of 2010 and 2011, this “pull forward” effect has now largely been exhausted, and demand from first home buyers should slowly return back to underlying average levels.
This is highlighted in Chart I, which shows a comparison of year-on-year growth in loans to first home buyers after the original First Home Owner’s Grant Scheme was increased from $7,000 to $14,000 in March 2001, compared with lending after the First Home Owner’s Grant Boost Scheme was introduced in October 2008. From a timing perspective the grants were in place for a similar period, being in place for around 16 and 15 months respectively.
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Interestingly, the trend in first-home buyer activity has been almost identical when comparing the recent boost scheme with the initial first-home owner’s grant. Substantial first-home buyer activity was brought forward to take advantage of the grants while they were in place. This created a subsequent “hole” in first-home buyer demand over the following two year period.
As indicated by the red line reflecting the impact of the most recent boost, first-home buyer activity is now showing year-on-year growth – despite the weaker overall economic conditions in 2011 compared with 2010. In comparison, at a similar point in time after the original first-home owner’s grant (February 2004), there was a setback in first-home buyer demand. However, conditions were different. Where interest rates are now declining, the market in February 2004 had experienced a 25-basis-point rise in interest rates in each of November and December 2003. As a result, there was a pause in first-home buyer demand for about six months before growth in activity again resumed (the next rise in interest rates was to be in March 2005. Consequently, with a benign interest rate environment anticipated over 2012, we anticipate that first-home buyer demand will continue to recover, and by the end of 2012 monthly first-home buyer demand should be reflecting the underlying level of around 130,000 loans per annum.
Healthy first-home buyer demand is important from a turnover and price perspective. Without demand for entry level properties, the impetus for demand from changeover buyers (i.e. upgraders and downsizers) is reduced as they usually have the option of staying in their existing dwelling and sitting out of the market when demand is weak. Similarly, investors can also sit out of the market when conditions aren’t conducive.
Most first-home buyers, on the other hand, are not able to postpone a purchase indefinitely. They will ultimately reach a life stage where they move into the market as purchasers. Those who can’t purchase their desired dwelling at the time will make a trade off by purchasing a smaller dwelling in their desired location, or purchasing in a more affordable location.
Consequently, it is often the movement in first-home buyer demand that creates the flow-on effects in demand across the rest of the market. This is highlighted in chart II. The increase in first-home buyer demand created by the boost scheme resulted in a subsequent rise in changeover activity. Given the much larger number of changeover buyers in the market, the percentage increase in changeover activity was lower, although still substantial – as highlighted by a comparison with the growth in changeover buyers that occurred in 2007 before the beginning of the GFC. Conversely, the fall-off in first-home buyer demand after the boost scheme expired has also resulted in a fall-off in changeover activity that is now stabilising as first-home buyer demand improves.
 
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Investor demand also coincided with the rise in first-home buyer demand over 2009. However, investor demand is not dependent on owner-occupier demand, with investors able to make purchases at their discretion. While investment fundamentals such as rental growth and yields will also influence investor demand, the prospect for capital growth is by far the key driver of investor demand. It was the rise in prices in 2009 and early 2010 that underpinned the rise in investor demand, and in an environment where prices have been declining over 2011, investor demand has been weakening.
As a result, the recovery in first home buyer demand will have a positive impact on price growth. As highlighted in chart III, there is a strong correlation between turnover activity (as indicated in the table by owner occupier lending for established dwellings) and median house price growth. Periods of rising turnover have corresponded with rising price growth, while weaker activity results in weaker price performance. In recent months, the tapering off in the decline in turnover activity has corresponded with a slowing in the rate of decline in median house prices.
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Consequently, in contrast to current concerns about price falls continuing, BIS Shrapnel’s view is that the recovery in first home buyer demand will facilitate the recovery in the housing market. Prices have now either bottomed out or should bottom out in the next few months and – barring any major shock on the overseas front – we will see the rising volume of activity will translate to a return of price growth 2012. Turnover will return to growth through 2012 as the recovery in first-home buyer demand gains momentum (although it could take a little longer in New South Wales given its recent changes to first-home buyer stamp duty exemptions) and flows through to changeover demand and increased activity across the market. The turnaround in price expectations will also drive stronger investor demand through 2012, which in turn will facilitate greater turnover.
As first-home buyer demand returns to underlying levels by the end of the year, price growth will strengthen and pick up further in 2013, particularly with our expectation of an improved economic outlook. The increased activity for existing dwellings will also allow upgraders to trade up into new houses and drive a recovery in new house commencements. Nevertheless, despite the expectation of a recovery in the market, the prospects for substantial rises in prices will be constrained by current strained affordability. In those markets in oversupply or close to balance, it means that the current price declines will halt, with only minimal growth coming through, while in those markets where there is a rising deficiency, price growth is expected to be stronger, although still only moderate (mid-single-digit growth per annum).
Angie Zigomanis is senior manager of <a href="https://www.bis.com.au/" title="BIS Shrapnel" target="_blank">BIS Shrapnel.</a>
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First-home buyers to drive 2012 housing price recovery: BIS Shrapnel's Angie Zigomanis

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In early 2010 the effects of the Global Financial Crisis set in motion an upturn in both the inner-Sydney and inner-Melbourne apartment markets. The lower level of construction instigated by the GFC in the latter half of 2008 constrained new apartment completions in both markets. This further tightened rental markets, which, together with the post-GFC fall in prices in 2008-09, resulted in rents and yields rising.
As the economic outlook improved over 2009-/10 (and alternative investment forms such as equities remained weak) investors began to flood the inner-Melbourne apartment market. Investor demand in Sydney also improved, albeit at a more modest rate.
Given the resultant increase in the pipeline of supply, BIS Shrapnel is asking if the conditions in the inner-city apartment markets remain conducive for the upturn in Melbourne to be sustained, and to create a further upside in Sydney.
In answering this question, analysis of the population profile of inner city apartment occupants is relevant. Looking at census data for occupants of inner-city apartments in both Sydney and Melbourne indicates the large majority can be divided into three categories:
<ul>
<li>Students, with the growth mainly coming from overseas students.</li>
<li>Young professionals, who are typically employed in white-collar occupations in the CBD or CBD fringe locations.</li>
<li>Empty nesters, such as older singles or couples without children living in the family home.</li>
</ul>
The first two groups largely create demand for apartments as tenants, while empty nesters are typically owner-occupiers.
Demand for apartments from young professionals experienced a brief setback during the GFC as employment in the financial sector declined. However, this rebounded quickly as the recovery came through.
Student demand has weakened, although most of the reduction in overseas student numbers has taken place in the vocational education sector. Student commencements in the university sector have experienced a more moderate decline and, with major university institutions located close to the Sydney and Melbourne CBDs, the softening in student demand has been less pronounced. Consequently, tenant demand has remained relatively solid.
However, although off-the-plan sales have shown a post-GFC recovery, actual new apartment completions have fallen. The long lead time for an off-the-plan sale to result in an apartment completion means the effects of the GFC are still impacting new apartment supply. Apartment completions experienced a setback in Sydney in 2010/11, while in Melbourne the setback was seen a year earlier in 2009/10. (See Figure 1)
Given projects in the development pipeline – those that are currently under construction or on track to proceed shortly – will take some time to reach completion, new supply in 2011/12 will remain below the long term average in Sydney, and only just above the long term average in Melbourne. This will not be high enough to create a significant impact on vacancy rates, and the environment for pre-sales from this perspective will still remain relatively positive in 2011/12, particularly if the economic environment and confidence improves.
The challenge will emerge from 2012-13, as new apartment completions will rise well above the long term average in both Sydney and Melbourne, and this is where differences will occur across the cities.
 
Figure 1: Apartment completions, Inner Sydney and Inner Melbourne.
History and those in the pipeline
<img src="/images/stories/bisjuly20.gif">Source: BIS Shrapnel
The pipeline in inner Melbourne is much larger. Off-the-plan sales to investors have been much higher in Melbourne over 2009-10 and 2010-11. This has been driven by tight rental markets, but also the solid residential price growth during 2009-10. With most of these sales located in large scale high-rise projects, the completion pipeline extends not just into 2012-13, but also 2013-14. Indeed, apartment completions in Melbourne in 2013-14 are expected to reach a record level. This is based only on those projects that are already under construction or set to commence and could be higher if additional projects achieve enough pre-sales to proceed. 
The sustained high level of apartment completions will create pressure on vacancy rates and rental growth in inner Melbourne from 2012-13. While there could be pent-up rental demand still to be absorbed after years of undersupply during 2007 to 2011, this is not likely to be the case by 2013-14. With a possibility of oversupply, vacancy rates in Melbourne are likely to rise, with falls coming through in rents and, potentially, prices.
In contrast, new apartment completions in inner Sydney will have remained well below the long run average between 2005-06 and 2011-12. While recent pre-sales are underpinning a sharp increase in new apartment completions in 2012-13, we do not anticipate it will have a significant impact on vacancy rates. This is mainly due to the substantial latent demand created by the low construction of the previous years. As a result, further solid rental growth in Sydney is expected to come through, particularly with employment and income growth anticipated to pick up pace over 2011-12 and 2012-13.
At this stage, if only current projects under construction and those on track to proceed make it through to completion, supply of apartments in Sydney is projected to fall in 2013-14. However, further off-the-plan sales will result in more projects coming through to provide some upside to completions for the year.
Finally, unless a substantial increase in new supply comes through, it is likely that new apartment supply in inner Sydney will remain in deficiency. This will continue to maintain pressure on rentals and result in upward pressure on prices over the next two to three years.
Angie Zigomanis is senior manager of <a href="https://www.bis.com.au/" title="BIS Shrapnel" target="_blank">BIS Shrapnel.</a>
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A tale of two cities: The challenges of the Melbourne and Sydney apartment markets

Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/azure">Azure</a> is has been greenlit for its $115 million residential project within the Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct in Southport

Following the acquisition of the site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/1-clarke-street-southport-qld-4215">1 Clarke Street</a> in October 2025 with development application Lodgement in January 2026, Azure has been granted approval for the 114 terraces which will form the final stage of the wider Lumina development.

“It’s a fantastic milestone for us to receive the green light on our second Gold Coast project,” said Trent Keirnan, Founder of Azure.

“The Gold Coast continues to evolve, with demand for considered, high-quality residences at an all-time high. This project has been thoughtfully shaped to respond to that demand.

“We’ve worked closely with Economic Development Queensland to bring this project forward, and the collaboration has been both proactive and highly considered. Their shared commitment to quality housing outcomes has enabled a streamlined approvals process and a strong result for the precinct.”&nbsp;

Appealing to a wide demographic, the project will deliver a range of two- and three-storey designs comprising a collection of three-bedroom terrace homes as well as one- and two-bedroom apartment-style residences. The designs by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a>&nbsp;focus on&nbsp;“urban coastalism”.

Residents will have access to an array of lifestyle amenities, including a resort-style pool with multiple lounging zones and landscaped gardens.

The residential offering will support the thriving Health and Knowledge Precinct, which includes Griffith University, Gold Coast University Hospital, Gold Coast Private Hospital and the new RDX Lumina and Proxima Towers, which are home to a range of health, education and research tenancies, including a 200-place childcare centre.

Azure aims for an off-market release for the project in the third quarter of this year, at the same time as construction is anticipated to start.

Joel Robinson

Azure approved for new townhouse development in Southport

Fortis has secured approval for a 57-room hotel at Richmond Square, marking another milestone in the delivery of the $330 million mixed-use precinct in Melbourne's inner east.

The hotel will occupy Levels 1 and 2 of Carmine House and forms part of Fortis' vision for Richmond Square, a precinct that will bring together apartments, hospitality, wellness and lifestyle offerings between Richmond and Cremorne.

Once complete, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/richmond-square-1-wiltshire-street-richmond-vic-3121">Richmond Square</a> will comprise 107 residences across Wiltshire House and Carmine House, alongside the hotel, hospitality venues, wellness facilities and a range of services aimed at both residents and visitors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13181 project_image_fid=348529]

The approval adds another layer to what Fortis is creating at Richmond Square, as developers increasingly look beyond standalone apartment buildings and towards mixed-use precincts that provide amenity and activation beyond the front door.

Jordan Winada, Head of Acquisitions (Commercial) Victoria at Fortis, said the approval was an important step in delivering the broader vision for the project.

"Richmond Square has always been about creating a destination rather than simply delivering residential apartments," Winada said.

"As buyer expectations continue to evolve, we're seeing increasing demand for developments that offer convenience, connection and access to high-quality experiences and amenity as part of everyday life.

"The hotel approval allows us to further realise that vision and create a precinct where residential living is complemented by hospitality, services and amenity in a way that is rarely seen in Melbourne's CBD and city fringe."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13181 project_image_fid=348530]

The hotel will also support a range of optional services for residents of Carmine House, including housekeeping and linen refresh programs, laundry and dry-cleaning services, in-residence food and beverage delivery, grocery and pantry stocking services, and concierge assistance.

The approval comes as owner-occupiers continue to dominate Australia's new apartment market, with buyers increasingly seeking developments that offer convenience, flexibility and lifestyle amenity alongside their homes.

Winada said buyers are now placing greater emphasis on the broader precinct and surrounding amenity when making purchasing decisions.

"Residential amenity is no longer limited to what sits within an apartment building. Buyers are increasingly assessing the broader lifestyle ecosystem surrounding their home and the ways in which a precinct can support their day-to-day needs.

"Richmond Square has been designed to provide that experience through a carefully curated mix of residential, hospitality and lifestyle offerings that work together to create a more connected way of living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13181 project_image_fid=348534]

The hotel is expected to open in early 2027, with the operator to be announced later this year.

Further hospitality, retail and lifestyle tenants are also expected to be revealed in the coming months as Fortis continues to shape the offering at Richmond Square.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=13181]

Fortis approved for hotel component of Richmond Square precinct

Having successfully expanded into a new region with its Caloundra apartment development, Sunset by Dusk Group, growing South East Queensland developer Dusk Group is again venturing into new territory.

The developer has lodged plans for a 70-apartment project in the Moreton Bay region, to be known as <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sunrise-on-sutton-25-sutton-street-redcliffe-qld-4020">Sunrise on Sutton</a>, named after its prime Sutton Street location, just one street back from Suttons Beach.

<img alt="Sutton" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="88a9f9ee-6ace-47f5-a0c6-8fb134b27e98" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-15%20at%209.20.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=iMXmJ7_BNZAmCt.jjupMSLdV_Qa9zJAK" />

Dusk Group Directors Huw Feeney and Anthony Short seized the opportunity to acquire the near-1,800 sqm amalgamated corner site at Sutton and Ella Streets for their first project in the area.

They have again enlisted MAS Architecture Studio, the architects behind Sunset by Dusk, to design the new eight-storey development.

The building will comprise a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments and has been designed to maximise views towards Suttons Beach, Margate Beach and Moreton Bay.

Pending approvals, the project could launch before the end of the year.

<img alt="Dusk" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="90c0c26c-096c-4ceb-8c58-f8303aea542f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-15%20at%209.20.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=nw8bqQtpOrf5nA95tuYhtqdB59YUzmO0" />

The development will provide 111 car parking spaces and 40 bicycle spaces.

Positioned within walking distance of Suttons Beach, Bluewater Square, Redcliffe Hospital and the Redcliffe Paceway, the development will sit within one of the peninsula's increasingly urbanised coastal pockets.

Redcliffe's new apartment market remains exceptionally tight, with Gardner Vaughan Group's One Redcliffe currently the only new apartment development actively being marketed in the beachside suburb.

It's another beach-focused development for Dusk Group, who has seen considerable success at its Caloundra apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sunset-by-dusk-group-caloundra-5-7-bombala-terrace-caloundra-qld-4551">Sunset by Dusk Group</a>.

Over 80 per cent of the 36 apartments have sold ahead of its early 2027 completion.

&nbsp;

First look: Dusk Group targets Suttons Beach precinct with 70-apartment Redcliffe proposal

Leading Brisbane developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/consolidated-properties">Consolidated Properties Group (CPG)</a> has completed and settled $450 million worth of apartments at Monarch Residences in Toowong, marking one of Brisbane’s most significant and prestigious riverfront residential completions in recent years.

The final apartment at Monarch sold at auction on the 30th May for $4.1m.&nbsp;

The milestone has been marked at a ribbon-cutting ceremony at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/monarch-residences-toowong-600-coronation-drive-toowong-qld-4066">Monarch Residences</a>, with Cr Penny Wolff highlighting the importance of completing major residential projects to boost the city’s much-needed housing supply.

The 224 apartments, delivered across two 15-level towers, are now officially in the hands of owners, including Brisbane downsizers, families and professionals who have traded traditional houses for apartment living. The completion underscores sustained demand for absolute riverfront living in Brisbane’s inner west.

<img alt="$450M Monarch Residences sells out as Brisbane riverfront demand surges" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="56ae05e9-092f-41f0-98a1-a10984fdd171" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ROBNN_MONARCHLAUNCHEVENT-131.jpg?VersionId=p76J6weGZqseNrE6aOAjmAHUah.y65Gd" />

Monarch Residences was planned and delivered over four years on a 1.2-hectare parcel with more than 130 metres of direct frontage to the Brisbane River, occupying one of the last remaining true riverfront sites of its scale and orientation within close proximity to the CBD. The site has been transformed from an underutilised, derelict block of land, into a thriving residential precinct with Middenbury House at its centre.&nbsp;

Consolidated Properties Group CEO and Chairman Don O’Rorke says the project’s completion represents the culmination of years of careful planning, design collaboration, market conviction and outstanding team delivery.

“We announced Monarch Residences in late 2021 and it’s been one of the most strongly received residential projects in our 45-year history,” Mr O’Rorke said.

"We are incredibly grateful to the outstanding team who helped bring Monarch Residences to life. A special thank you to Hutchinson Builders and their hardworking labour force for delivering a development of exceptional quality that our residents will be proud to call home for many years to come.

“Brisbane City Council and Titles Queensland also played a huge role in getting residents into their homes early through the pilot programs they ran to speed up the approval processes. They understand the challenges of the housing industry and are doing something about it.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113455 project_image_fid=211466]

Consolidated Properties Group Head of Residential, James MacGinley said Monarch Residences showed what could be achieved when private industry and government worked together to deliver new housing for Brisbane.

“Monarch Residences has delivered more than 200 new apartments in Brisbane’s inner-west at a time when additional housing supply is critically important,” MacGinley said.

“It’s fantastic to see residents now moving into this landmark riverfront development, which reflects the strength of collaboration between Council and the project team throughout delivery.

“All government agencies played a significant hand in achieving a fast-tracked outcome for Monarch Residences with Brisbane City Council, Urban Utilities, Energex and Titles Queensland assisted to remove hurdles to achieve settlements.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113455 project_image_fid=302326]

With Monarch Residences now complete, CPG has launched River Living, a bespoke on-site property management service designed to enhance the resident experience. The service will support all future CPG residential projects, including the recently announced <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> in Yeerongpilly and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a> in Newstead.

The completion also marks the opening of a prized leasing opportunity at the heritage-listed Middenbury House, built in 1865 and which has been carefully restored and integrated into the broader masterplan.&nbsp;

CPG said the adaptive reuse of the landmark riverfront residence presents an opportunity to introduce a complementary boutique tenancy that respects the site’s historic significance while activating the riverfront frontage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113455 project_image_fid=211495]

Colliers Director of Residential Andrew Scriven said the move-in phase highlights continued demand for completed premium riverfront apartments in Brisbane.

“Residents are now experiencing firsthand the scale, craftsmanship and irreplaceable riverfront position that Monarch offers,” Scriven said.

“Opportunities to secure a brand-new, completed residence on Brisbane’s absolute riverfront are exceptionally rare. Combined with the proven track record of Consolidated Properties Group and Hutchinson Builders, combined with a design vision brought to life by some of Australia’s leading architects and designers, Monarch represents a unique opportunity to purchase a home of enduring quality and prestige.”

Monarch Residences was designed in collaboration with Melbourne-based architect Wardle Studio, alongside leading national practice Cottee Parker, with construction delivered by Hutchinson Builders.

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Consolidated Properties Group sells out Monarch Residences as Brisbane riverfront demand surges

An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.

The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.

The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.

Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" />

It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.

The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." />

Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.

&nbsp;

At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" />

The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.

The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.

Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.

Angie Zigomanis

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