Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Unemployment

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The May unemployment rate increased by 85,700 people to 927,600, taking the unemployment rate up to 7.1 per cent, today's ABS figures showed.
It was now at an 18 year high.
The ACT has the lowest unemployment rate at 4.1 per cent.
New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania are the only other states under the national unemployment rate.
New South Wales has the lowest at 6.4 per cent, up from 6.3 per cent in April, and Victoria 6.9 per cent, up from six per cent in April. Tasmania's unemployment rate is 6.4 per cent.
Western Australia's unemployment rate is the highest at 8.1 per cent, then Queensland and South Australia and 7.9 per cent.
The Northern Territory has a unemployment rate of 7.4 per cent. 
In April it sat at 6.4 per cent, and 5.2 per cent in March before COVID-19 took over.
Seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 227,700 people between April and May.
Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said, "The drop in employment, of close to a quarter of a million people, added to the 600,000 in April, brings the total fall to 835,000 people since March." “In two months, the percentage of people aged 15 and over employed in Australia decreased from around 62.5 per cent to around 58.7 per cent.” As in April, the size of the increase in the unemployment rate in May was reduced by larger than usual numbers of employed and unemployed people leaving the labour force. 
This was reflected in a further fall in the participation rate, down 0.7 percentage points to 62.9 per cent. 
The last time the participation rate was below 63 per cent was in January 2001. Monthly hours worked fell 0.7 per cent in May, to be down 10.2 per cent since March (with the April fall revised up to 9.5 per cent). "The ABS estimates that a combined group of around 2.3 million people - around 1 in 5 employed people - were affected by either job loss between April and May or had less hours than usual for economic reasons in May," Mr Jarvis said.
Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy now expects unemployment to reach eight per cent by September, when previously Josh Frydenberg said that the treasury expected in April the jobless rate would peak at 10 per cent in the June quarter before recovering.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Unemployment reaches new high over 7%: ABS

EXPERT OBSERVER

Employment fell by 594,300 in April – the biggest monthly decline in jobs on record. Full-time jobs fell by 220,500 and part-time jobs fell by 373,800.

The unemployment rate rose from 5.2 per cent to 6.2 per cent in April – the biggest lift on record. It was the highest jobless rate since July 2015.

Hours worked fell by 9.2 per cent - the biggest monthly decline on record.

Participation rate: The participation rate fell from 66 per cent to a near 16-year low of 63.5 per cent – the biggest fall on record.

Spare capacity: In April, the underutilisation rate increased by 5.9 percentage points to a record 19.9 per cent. The underemployment rate increased by 4.9 percentage points to a record 13.7 per cent.

Unemployment across states in April: NSW 6.0 per cent (March 4.9 per cent); Victoria 6.0 per cent (5.2 per cent); Queensland 6.8 per cent (5.7 per cent); South Australia 7.2 per cent (6.3 per cent); Western Australia 6.0 per cent (5.4 per cent); Tasmania 6.2 per cent (4.9 per cent); Northern Territory 6.0 per cent (5.5 per cent); ACT 4.2 per cent (3.2 per cent). A record 221,500 jobs were lost in New South Wales; 129,500 jobs were lost in Queensland; and 127,100 jobs were lost in Victoria.

A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending.

What does it all mean?

If you went back a year ago, no one would have imagined that more than half a million jobs could be lost in the space of a month. The terms ‘unprecedented’ and ‘extraordinary’ are used regularly to describe the effects of COVID-19 on the economy. But when discussing the impact on the job market, the terms are appropriate.

What is happening in the figures is that almost 600,000 weren’t registered as employed in April – they didn’t work more than hour a week in the reference week. But those JobSeeker and JobKeeper recipients didn’t join the dole queue rather they “left” the workforce – they were neither employed or unemployed in the month. Rather the JobKeeper and JobSeeker beneficiaries stayed home, and waited for the economy to re-start so they could return to workplaces.

The fact that the jobless rate rose to 6.2 per cent and not 8.2 per cent is very positive. It shows that those on the sidelines are confident of returning to their jobs. The longer that an unemployed person stays out of work, the harder it is for that person to eventually find work. The great hope is that the job losses were only temporary and that the re-opening of the economy is indeed successful.

The best way to describe the impact of COVID-19 on the job market is in terms of the number of hours worked. Hours worked slumped by a record 9.2 per cent, and that accords with expectations that the economy will contract 10 per cent in the first half of 2020.

Many people have kept their jobs because of the JobKeeper program. So while those on the program are still ‘employed’ and deriving an income of sorts, they are not working, not adding to the output of businesses, and not adding to overall economic activity. The JobKeeper program keeps people connected to their employers, which is positive for the recovery phase. But the payments also ensure that people can spend and therefore serve to keep others in jobs and keep the economy moving.

The jobless rate is expected to peak near 10 per cent. And the Reserve Bank and Federal Treasury expect the economy to contract 10 per cent in the first half of 2020. But provided social distancing is maintained with good hand hygiene and significant COVID-19 testing, there is no reason that a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery can’t occur as lockdown restrictions ease.

Looking ahead, the closure of our foreign borders will have a range of effects on the economy which also represents the value of Buying Off-The-Plan. Around 150,000 people come to Australia each year on different visas and do the jobs that Australians can’t or won’t do. If the jobs aren’t filled, then this could slow business output and economic output. But the absence, or reduced number, of migrants could serve to keep the jobless rate down if Aussies take up the jobs that they have shunned in the past.

The drop in jobs masks the impact - and future impact - on incomes. People have lost income and there is little hope for a lift in wages in the months ahead. Add in the deferral of dividend payments by listed companies and little or no interest income and there may be scope for ‘top up’ cash handouts by the Government.

CRAIG JAMES is the&nbsp;Chief Economist at CommSec

cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Historic Aussie job market unemployment spike: CommSec's Craig James

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Australia's unemployment rate has risen to 6.2 per cent, up one per cent over the COVID-19 hit month of April, well down on economists forecasts.
Before the release of the figures from the ABS today, economists were tipping a rise to 8.3 per cent, which would have taken the unemployment rate to the highest point since August 1997.
The majority were saying seven per cent or higher.
Unemployment instead however rose by just one percent from 5.2 per cent in March, with the number of people unemployed increasing by 104,500 to 823,300.
Employment fell by 594,3000 people, seasonally adjusted.
“The large drop in employment did not translate into a similar sized rise in the number of unemployed people because around 489,800 people left the labour force”, Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said.
 Participation rate fell by 2.4 per cent to 63.5 per cent.
“This means there was a high number of people without a job who didn’t or couldn’t actively look for work or weren’t available for work”, Jarvis said.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/5/14/Unemployment%20by%20state.jpg" alt="">
Unemployment in South Australia rose to 7.2 per cent, the highest in the country.
Tasmania saw the biggest jump, up 1.3 per cent, followed by Queensland and New South Wales, who both saw 1.1 per cent increase in unemployment from March to April.
Josh Frydenberg says Treasury still expects the jobless rate will peak at 10 per cent before recovering.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Unemployment rises slightly to 6.2 per cent

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There was little change in the March unemployment figures today released by the ABS, with only a small early impact from COVID-19 on the labour market early in the month.
ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said the major COVID-19 related actions will be evident in the April data.
“Given the expected unseasonal change in key labour market indicators in the current COVID-19 context, the ABS will increase the focus on seasonally adjusted over trend data estimates for April and subsequent months,” Hockman said.
There will be additional products to assist the ABS in measuring the labour market impacts of COVID-19.
From March 1 to March 14, before the shutdown, employment increased by 16,800, with full-time employment up 8,800. Part-time employment also rose by 8,000.
Unemployment increased by 3,500.
Westpac's Bill Evans tips the June quarter unemployment rate to hit 11 per cent.
The RBA want to get the unemployment rate down to 4.5 per cent before they consider hiking interest rates.
AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver says April will see a big deterioration, with unemployment rising towards 10 per cent by June.
 
 
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Unemployment rate steady at 5.2% as eyes shift to April data for COVID-19 impact

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Events have been moving quickly in the Australian economy.
With the announcement of the Australian Government’s latest JobKeeper Payment (JKP) policy and further tightening of social distancing guidelines we have reviewed our employment, GDP, and Budget deficit forecasts.
Key forecasts had been: a peak in the unemployment rate of 11.1% in the June quarter; a GDP contraction of 3.5% in the June quarter; and the likely issuance of an additional $250bn in Australian government bonds over 2019/20 and 2020/21.
In reviewing those forecasts we have maintained the approach of assessing employment and output across industry sectors to arrive at a more granular estimate of the impact of the various government policies on the Australian economy.
We also maintain our core view that while the intensity of the policies to address the virus will peak near the end of the June quarter, most policies will be maintained through the September quarter and the recovery will be delayed until the December quarter. Conditions in the global economy will remain very weak until well into the December quarter.
With the shutdowns and social distancing policies being tightened we now expect a much more severe impact on the output of most industries.
As expected, the most seriously affected industries are likely to be: retail; accommodation; restaurants; transport; recreation; and real estate. However we also expect negative impacts for other industries including manufacturing; construction; and distribution. Other industries such as health, government, and telecommunications will see a lift in employment and output.
We expect GDP will now contract by 8.5% in the June quarter; to be followed by a 0.6% contraction in the September quarter; and a 5.2% lift in the December quarter.
Overall, the economy is expected to contract by 5% through the 2020 year.
BILL EVANS is the <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42804/16785/" target="_blank">Chief Economist at Westpac</a>
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JobKeepers payment to reduce peak unemployment rate from 17% to 9%: Westpac's Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
3.283 million was the print for US initial jobless claims.
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RBecYw6kZlY/XnyisN9hhXI/AAAAAAAA05k/GrFvyXTDTR0Mei8pw3Wzzy0tLMiCnHdwwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/US2.jpg" width="640" height="486" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1015"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Terrible stuff.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All previous crises are a tiny blip on the radar by comparison.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It’s hard to compare with previous recessions...as there is simply no modern comparison.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The US unemployment rate could exceed 30 per cent by the end of next quarter, and Canada faces a similar mess.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Consumer-driven economies without consumers will lie in ruins for as long as the shutdowns continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia’s Coronavirus figures look somewhat promising, but in America they’re spreading widely.</div>
<div>
 There are now more cases in the US than in China, or indeed any other country. 
</div>
<div>Co-ordinated stimulus</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More so than in any previous crises this will result in co-ordinated stimulus packages on an Olympic and unprecedented scale.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So far rates have been cut to zero, and we’re looking at an initial $2.2 trillion US government stimulus package, and more is likely to follow.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Federal Reserve also dropped an initial salvo of US$700 billion in quantitative easing, and since it’s promising ‘QE infinity’ for as long as it takes, it’s impossible to know how much printing will follow (answer: a lot).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Small businesses and households, as in Australia, will need access to loans or other funds to tide them through to the other side.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It won't just be America going down this route.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All around the world government debt is set to soar and central banks are pushing interest rates down to zero. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A number of markets have been crushed, but US stocks are still expensive, with only really the energy sector looking interesting. Overall the expected returns on US and Aussie stocks are not yet of much interest at these levels and the bargains lie elsewhere. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One step at a time, Australia needs to bring down cases of the Coronavirus first and foremost.</div>
---
<div>Some more old data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australian household wealth increased by +3.3 per cent in the December 2019 quarter, to hit a record high of $11.31 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main driver in Q4 was a +3.9 per cent increase in residential property prices. Aussie total household wealth increased by +10 per cent in 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's average net worth per capita hit a record high of A$443,000 by the end of calendar year 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K60ksQnjY9s/Xn0t8289OhI/AAAAAAAA050/Dl8Ui-sG1uUpBT7CdZJoYuNXUbA7p4x6wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1373"></div>
And the average or mean wealth per household had soared to well over A$1 million.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wohuFMx9yng/Xn0uHYFhUUI/AAAAAAAA054/ibAp_V88F1MquVR-wNs0Oj8HBhNvr4fuwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1435">
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>CoreLogic will report next week that housing prices increased in Q1 2020, including in the month of March 2020 itself.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, property  activity will now stall, and equities crashed in the first quarter of 2020 which will bring down superannuation balances. Meanwhile, unemployment looks set to double...at least.</div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Unemployment looks set to double... at least: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/3d235a1c-91f8-4a9a-92b6-7ac7922cad16/&amp;sid=0088" target="_blank">private member’s bill</a>, moved by Labor MP Josh Burns, recently called on the Australian government “to help build more affordable homes” in response to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/homelessness-soars-in-our-biggest-cities-driven-by-rising-inequality-since-2001-117833" target="_blank">growing homelessness crisis</a>. A premise of the bill is that a lack of social housing is a major cause of homelessness and increasing the supply is a key element of solving the problem. The government’s <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/3d235a1c-91f8-4a9a-92b6-7ac7922cad16/&amp;sid=0086" target="_blank">response</a> was that one solution is to encourage social housing tenants to find paid work, so they can move into private rental housing.
The problem with this argument is it overlooks the major barriers to entering the private rental market for low-income households. It also does not excuse the failure to invest adequately in building more social housing.
There is certainly a shortage of social housing. About 140,600 applicants were on the waiting list for public housing and 8,800 households were wait-listed for state-owned-and-managed Indigenous housing <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2019/contents/priority-groups-and-wait-lists#pg4" target="_blank">as at June 30 2018</a>. Another 38,300 applicants were waiting for mainstream community housing <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2018/contents/priority-groups-and-wait-lists" target="_blank">as at June 30 2017</a> (the most recent publicly <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2019/contents/priority-groups-and-wait-lists#pg4" target="_blank">available data</a>). Together, these tenure types comprise most of Australia’s social housing.
These figures exclude people temporarily suspended from waiting lists (e.g. social housing applicants in New South Wales who take up <a href="https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/housing/policies/rent-choice-policy" target="_blank">Rent Choice private rental assistance</a>), who need social housing but <a href="https://www.monash.edu/news/articles/women-on-temporary-visas-vulnerable-to-family-violence2" target="_blank">are ineligible</a> and others not on waiting lists but still in need, such as <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/306" target="_blank">rough sleepers and very low-income households in housing stress</a>.
Tenure in social housing was once effectively <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/316" target="_blank">unlimited</a> provided tenants paid their rent and maintained their property. But waiting list pressures have led to a new approach. In his response to the private member’s bill, the assistant minister for community housing, homelessness and community services, Luke Howarth, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/3d235a1c-91f8-4a9a-92b6-7ac7922cad16/&amp;sid=0086" target="_blank">argued</a>:
"There needs to be more responsibility […] from state governments to help people who are able to get back into the workplace to then move on from social housing so that it will provide a flow-through effect for people currently on the waiting list."
Market realities
Howarth’s argument is consistent with much state and territory policy. For example, the NSW <a href="http://www.socialhousing.nsw.gov.au/?a=348442" target="_blank">Future Directions policy</a> explicitly commits to “upskilling” tenants to enable them to live in private rental housing.
Tacitly overlooked in such “pathways” policies are the barriers to entering private rental. Across Australia <a href="https://www.anglicare.asn.au/our-work/research-reports/the-rental-affordability-snapshot" target="_blank">less than 26%</a> of private rental properties are affordable for households on a minimum wage. Less than 4% are affordable and appropriate for households on income support.
<a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/tip-of-the-iceberg-complaints-alleging-discrimination-in-rental-market-rise-20170716-gxac9d/" target="_blank">Prejudice</a> and <a href="https://www.sheltersa.asn.au/site/wp-content/uploads/190430-Shelter-SA-Research-Report-on-Racial-Discrimination-in-Private-Rental-FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">discrimination</a> against tenants perceived to pose a greater risk to landlords’ investments make access even more difficult.
Low-income households in the private rental market also face insecure tenure. “No-grounds terminations” are permitted in all states and territories except Tasmania and, from July 1 2020, Victoria (except at the end of the first fixed term).
Under “no grounds” termination, landlords can evict tenants for no stated reason at the end of a fixed-term lease and at any time on a periodic lease. Fear of retaliatory eviction makes it <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renters/private-renters.pdf" target="_blank">less likely tenants will assert their legal rights</a>.
Employment as a pathway
Even if private rental access and affordability were certain, many social housing tenants are not in a position to undertake employment. In 2017–18, about <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2019/contents/summary" target="_blank">398,900 households were in social housing in Australia</a>. Many of them relied on the disability support pension (21%) or the age pension (19%) as their main source of income.
Long-standing <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2019/contents/priority-groups-and-wait-lists" target="_blank">targeting</a> of social housing to greatest need means tenants are disproportionately likely to have low educational qualifications and limited marketable skills. They face considerable employment challenges, not the least of which is <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/166" target="_blank">stigmatisation</a>.
It is also worth considering what “employment” realistically looks like for social housing tenants seeking to enter or re-enter the workforce. It’s likely to be as <a href="https://theconversation.com/labour-in-vain-casualisation-presents-a-precarious-future-for-workers-8181" target="_blank">casualised labour</a> in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uber-might-not-take-over-the-world-but-it-is-still-normalising-job-insecurity-127234" target="_blank">gig economy</a>.
As social policy researchers Greg Marston and Catherine McDonald have <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/tpp/ben/2007/00000015/00000003/art00003" target="_blank">argued</a>, we cannot assume exiting welfare for the labour market leads automatically to social and economic security. Precarious, intermittent, low-wage employment does not offer a sound basis for sustaining a private tenancy.
Of course, social housing tenants should be supported to find work and to move out of social housing if they want to. But the evidence would suggest tenant choice is not the motivation here. Rather than creating “pathways” as a way of managing social housing waiting lists, governments would have greater impact on the housing crisis if they invested much more in social housing.
Between 2011 and 2016, <a href="https://www.launchhousing.org.au/site/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/LaunchHousing_AHM2018_Report.pdf" target="_blank">government spending on social housing decreased 7%</a>, from A$1.42 billion to A$1.32 billion. This has contributed to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-triple-its-social-housing-by-2036-this-is-the-best-way-to-do-it-105960" target="_blank">backlog of 433,000 dwellings</a> in Australia’s social housing supply. That’s predicted to grow to a shortage of 727,000 dwellings by 2036.
In addition to providing <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/522/Modelling_costs_of_housing_provision_FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">more social and affordable</a> housing, governments must act on the systemic problems in the private rental market. This includes developing <a href="https://everybodyshome.com.au/our-campaign/a-better-deal-for-renters/" target="_blank">nationally consistent tenancy legislation</a> to provide more protection for tenants, including against no-grounds evictions, and providing the resources to properly enforce such laws.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128006/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Chris Hartley, Research Fellow (Housing and Homelessness) at the Centre for Social Impact, UNSW.
Kathleen Flanagan, Research Fellow &amp; Deputy Director, HACRU, University of Tasmania.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-simple-as-finding-a-job-getting-people-out-of-social-housing-is-much-more-complex-than-that-128006" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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As simple as finding a job? Getting people out of social housing is much more complex than that

Strong employment not leading to improved unemployment or wage growth: RBA's Guy Debelle

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The October Labour Force Survey surprised with a –19.0k decline in employment – the market median was for 16k while the lowest forecast in the range was +7k.
It was a surprisingly soft update all the more so for while the participation rate eased back to 66.0% from 66.1%, as you would expect with a soft print on employment, the unemployment still bumped up to 5.3% (5.32% at two decimal places) from 5.2%. Westpac had been looking for a rise in unemployment as we do expect participation to remain relatively robust in the face of softer employment growth.
This month also reinforced the trend that while male participation has lifted off its cyclical low it is the trend rise in female participation that driven force in the outsized gains in the labour force.  
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/OctNov2019/LFHighlighs.JPG" alt="">
The average monthly employment gain so far in 2019 dropped from 25k in September to 20k in October with the annual pace easing back from 2.5% in September to 2.0% in October. This also saw the employment pulse slow with the six month annualise pace easing to 1.6%yr from a very robust 2.6%yr reported as recently as August. Currently, with participation remaining robust growth in the labour force was still a fast 1.9% six months annualised in October.
By contrast the working age population is currently growing at a 1.6% six month annualised pace so you can see how it is rising participation, more so than population, that his holding up unemployment. As such, with the leading indicators pointing to softer employment growth we remain comfortable with our expectation that a resilient participation rate will see the unemployment rate continue its gradual trend higher into 2020. Our current forecasts is for the unemployment rate to drift higher to around 5.4% by end 2019 or early 2020 then rise to 5.6% by mid-2020.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/OctNov2019/LFsixmont.JPG" alt="">
We should also note the jump up in underemployment rate to 8.5% (8.52% at two decimal places) to from 8.3%. It was 8.54% back in August reinforcing a trend drift higher in underemployment. This month there was a contraction in both full-time and part-time employment (–10.3k full-time and –8.7k respectively) driving a 0.2% decline in hours worked.
This highlights that it is a fundamental weakness in the report that is driving underemployment higher rather than some statistical shift. This trend drift higher in underemployment, and the slower pace of gain in hours worked compared to total employment (1.4%yr vs. 2.0%yr), reinforces the observation of the broader slack in the labour market slack beyond the 5.3% unemployment rate.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/OctNov2019/LFUnder.JPG" alt="">
The state data is also reveals that the two largest states, NSW and Victoria, are starting to slow; NSW more so than Victoria. Total employment fell –10.3k in NSW with the unemployment rate picking up to 4.8% from 4.5%. In the year, employment growth in NSW has fallen from 3.8%yr in July to 1.5% in October.
Victoria has been a bit more robust than NSW with employment lifting 2.9k there with a smaller rise in unemployment to 4.8% (now on par with NSW which has risen to meet Victoria) from 4.7%. Annual employment in Victoria is still running at a very solid 3.2%yr pace but this is a moderation from the 3.7%yr pace in June. Of the mining states, Qld reported a fall in employment of –14k while employment lifted 6.3k in WA. Unemployment was steady in both states at 6.5% in Qld, 5.7% in WA.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/OctNov2019/LFunempl.JPG" alt="">
While today’s update was weaker than we were anticipating, it was not enough to change our view that the labour market is softening gradually which will drive a modest gradual rise in unemployment and underemployment. The Australian economy is a long way away from the RBA’s full employment aim of 4.5% and if the Bank wants to use monetary policy to drive the economy in that direction, it has a lot more work to do. However, the gradual pace of the deterioration will allow the RBA time to monitor the economy before having to act again.
In our view, while rate cuts along with the Government’s tax offset payments should help to support demand, we think it will be insufficient to get economic growth moving back to trend or above in 2020. As we see employment growth continuing to moderate in early 2020, and expect that the resulting decline in participation will provide only a partial offset, we hold to our view that unemployment is likely to hit 5.6% my mid-2020.
JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac 
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Rising unemployment is working against RBA's objectives: Justin Smirk

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The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has risen to 5.3 per cent over October, according to statistics from the ABS released today.
The RBA may have been forgiven to be upbeat after last month where the unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.3 per cent, however the latest batch of figures will no doubt play on their minds heading in to the last official interest rate meeting of the year next month.
Unemployment is now at its highest rate since July last year. The RBA are targeting an unemployment rate at 4.5 per cent.
The employment rate fell by some 19,000 jobs over the month, mainly due to the fact participation rate (people looking for jobs), ticked down to 66 per cent.
Under employment rose 0.2 per cent to 8.5 per cent.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/14/unemployment%20rate.jpg" alt="">
Source: Twitter @JFosterFM
Callam Pickering, APAC economist at Indeed Australia, noted the youth unemployment problem.
"Australia's youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) back above 12%. Australia has a big youth unemployment problem and we don't talk about it enough," he tweeted.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/14/unemployment%20age.jpg" alt="">
Michael Tull, assistant national secretary community &amp; public sector union, tweeted his thoughts on the overall state of the economy.
"Retail terrible, wages awful and now unemployment up...but hey there’s apparently a budget surplus so everything must be great."<a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1n1174f r-1loqt21 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/auspol?src=hashtag_click" data-focusable="true"> </a>
 
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