<p>Melbourne developer Spacious Group has completed Voyage Altona, one of the closest new apartment developments to Altona Beach.</p>

<p>Off the plan purchasers have started moving into the 49-apartment project on Pier Street, with the remaining move-in-ready one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments starting from just over $500,000.</p>

<p>Display apartments have now been fitted out, allowing prospective buyers to inspect the completed residences by appointment.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=372638]</p>

<p>The completed apartments feature open-plan living and dining areas which extend onto private balconies and terraces, while full-height glazing maximises natural light throughout the interiors.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Hybrid timber-look flooring, stone benchtops, Miele appliances, porcelain-tiled bathrooms and generous storage feature throughout the building which also features landscaped communal areas, expansive shared terraces, lift access and secure on-grade parking.</p>

<p>Drawing inspiration from its bayside setting, Voyage adopts a restrained palette of warm neutral tones and textured finishes. Many of the apartments take advantage of views across Port Phillip Bay, while the indoor-outdoor living spaces have been designed to make the most of the coastal outlook.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=3286]</p>

<p>Voyage was developed to address what Spacious Group identified as an undersupply of higher-quality apartment product in Altona, with a focus on owner-occupiers looking to remain within the bayside community.</p>

<p>"Voyage responds to very strong local buyer demand for quality, owner-occupier-focused product," says Barry Plant Projects Director Jarrod Farey, who has handled sales since the project's launch.</p>

<p>"The project delivers an elevated lifestyle proposition, with its design and quality of finish far exceeding anything previously produced in the area, as well as its proximity to Pier Street Village and the beach."</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers have been local downsizers and owner-occupiers looking to stay within the Altona community but who previously had limited opportunities to buy a brand-new apartment.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112195]</p>


Joel Robinson

Spacious Group completes Voyage Altona in Altona's beachside precinct

<p>Homecorp has secured approval for a $360 million apartment development at Budds Beach, paving the way for one of the Gold Coast's most amenity-rich residential projects to launch later this year.</p>

<p>Gold Coast City Council has approved Lýon Residences, a 32-level tower that will deliver 178 two and three-bedroom apartments across a prominent corner site at 8-10 Acacia Avenue and 25-27 Oak Avenue.</p>

<p>The approval comes as developers continue to invest in premium lifestyle-driven apartment projects on the Gold Coast, where owner occupiers are increasingly prioritising amenity as much as apartment size and location.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/l-on-residences-25-27-oak-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Lýon Residences</a> has been designed around a resort-style wellness offering, headlined by a Moroccan-inspired spa precinct featuring treatment rooms, a Nordic sauna and steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, a soaking pool and a residents-only juice bar.</p>

<p>The rooftop will include a heated infinity pool and spa, residents' lounge with private kitchen and bar, gymnasium, yoga and Pilates studio, outdoor entertaining areas and barbecue facilities overlooking the Surfers Paradise skyline.</p>

<p><img alt="Lyon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d3e29af-8793-486e-a684-52cef862241f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-15%20at%204.32.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ayG2zpLf3SS6Zy8XmKDcQods4kVWb0gm" /></p>

<p>Homecorp Founder and CEO Ron Bakir said Budds Beach provided the ideal location for the company's latest luxury apartment project.</p>

<p>"Budds Beach represents one of the most unique and sought-after pockets of the Gold Coast, and Lýon Residences has been designed to reflect that sense of rarity and refinement," Bakir said.</p>

<p>The project arrives as wellness continues to become a defining feature of new residential developments both in Australia and internationally.</p>

<p>The latest Global Wellness Institute figures show wellness real estate remains the fastest-growing segment of the global wellness economy and is forecast to exceed $1.8 trillion by 2030. Australia continues to rank among the world's 15 largest wellness real estate markets, with developers increasingly integrating health, recreation and community facilities into apartment projects.</p>

<p>Queensland is also experiencing strong population growth, with the Gold Coast continuing to outperform many other Australian cities as demand for new housing remains elevated ahead of the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>Bakir said the project had been designed to respond to that shift in buyer expectations.</p>

<p>"Strong population growth and sustained demand across the Gold Coast continue to highlight the need for well-designed new housing supply. Lýon Residences responds directly to this demand while setting a new benchmark for residential living," he said.</p>

<p>Each apartment has been designed to maximise views across the coastline, the Nerang River and the Gold Coast hinterland.</p>

<p>Located just minutes from Surfers Paradise beach and the Broadwater, the development also offers easy access to the light rail network, Broadbeach and Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>Early site works are underway, with construction expected to commence later this year.</p>


Homecorp approved for Budds Beach apartment tower, Lýon Residences

<p>New apartment developments with uninterrupted, north-facing views over Perth's Swan River are exceptionally rare.</p>

<p>Recognising just how limited those opportunities are, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/edge-visionary-living">Edge Visionary Living</a>, one of Perth's most respected builder-developers, targeted <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/applecross-wa-6153">Applecross</a>, assembling an unrepeatable 6,342 sqm riverfront site on the corner of Moreau Mews and Canning Beach Road to create one of Perth's only new north-facing apartment developments directly overlooking the Swan River.</p>

<p>Today, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/riviere-residences-applecross-59-canning-beach-road-applecross-wa-6153">Rivière Residences</a> offers buyers a unique opportunity to choose between completed residences ready to move into now and off-the-plan homes in the final stage, Rivière West.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=28384 project_image_fid=3823]</p>

<p>Across the completed East and Central buildings, residents are already enjoying the development's luxury amenity, while two of the precinct's hospitality venues are now open.</p>

<p>The completed component of the development gives buyers the advantage of experiencing the finished product firsthand, including its uninterrupted river views, while still having the opportunity to secure a residence in the final stage.</p>

<p>"People are wowed by the view and the quality of the apartments,"&nbsp;Edge Visionary Living Sales Executive, Holly McSweeney, says.</p>

<p>"They're looking for the convenience of lock-and-leave living, but they're not looking to downsize on quality."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=28384 project_image_fid=3826]</p>

<p>The rarity of the development hasn't been lost on prospective buyers, McSweeney says.</p>

<p>For McSweeney, it all comes back to a location that is becoming increasingly difficult to replicate.</p>

<p>"Location, location, location," she says. "We are nestled right on the front of the Swan River. You can never get built out, so wherever you are in Rivière Residences, you've got views of the river forever."</p>

<p>The unique waterfront position has resonated particularly strongly with local downsizers. McSweeney says many buyers are long-time Applecross residents looking to transition from large family homes into a luxury apartment without sacrificing space, quality or the lifestyle they've enjoyed for decades.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N_FowNW0wu8?si=vb25XFq1wZ-iufAW" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>A major focus for Edge in recent years has been resident amenity. Across its apartment portfolio, from beachfront developments in Scarborough to luxury towers in South Perth, the developer has increasingly invested in the spaces beyond the apartment itself.</p>

<p>The strategy has largely been shaped by downsizer demand. Many buyers are moving from large family homes with swimming pools and established gardens. While they're looking to leave the maintenance behind, they don't want to compromise on lifestyle.</p>

<p>At Rivière, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hillam-architects">Hillam Architects</a> designed the resident facilities as an extension of each apartment. A 25-metre heated swimming pool takes advantage of the north-facing river outlook, complemented by a large gym, sauna and steam rooms, private dining spaces, residents' lounges, a cinema, games room, and dedicated wine and whisky rooms.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=28384 project_image_fid=372542]</p>

<p>The waterfront location has also proved to be a major drawcard. Residents are within walking distance of the Raffles Hotel, South of Perth Yacht Club, the Heathcote Cultural Precinct and the cafés, restaurants and boutiques along Ardross Street.</p>

<p>Beyond the location and amenity, McSweeney says many buyers take confidence from Edge's fully integrated development model.</p>

<p>Having delivered apartments across Perth for decades, Edge now designs, develops and constructs its projects in-house, giving the company greater control over quality, delivery and the finished product.</p>

<p>"What I love is when people walk through their apartment for the first time and say, 'This is better than what we imagined,'" McSweeney says. "We hear that all the time."</p>

<p>Completed apartments in the East and Central buildings are now available to inspect by appointment, while Rivière West, the final stage of the precinct, is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=28384]</p>


North-facing Swan River views drive demand at Rivière Residences in Applecross

<p>Nearly 60 per cent of apartments at McNab Group's $220 million The Tannery development in Brisbane's West End have sold ahead of the project's public launch, including a suburb-record $2.57 million sale for a two-bedroom apartment.</p>

<p>The early sales campaign has secured buyers for 50 of the project's 87 apartments, highlighting continued demand for larger owner-occupier apartments that combine generous floorplans with premium lifestyle amenities in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374768]</p>

<p>McNab Group Executive Chairman Michael McNab said selling more than half the project before launch reflected changing buyer expectations.</p>

<p>"Selling more than half the project before public sales open tells us buyers are actively seeking apartments that offer something genuinely different," McNab said.</p>

<p>"Today's buyers are looking beyond four walls. They want homes that genuinely enhance the way they live, with spaces that support health, connection and everyday wellbeing."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374767]</p>

<p>A key point of difference for the project is the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed Dixon's Tannery building, which will become The Retreat, a residents-only wellness precinct rather than being redeveloped into additional apartments.</p>

<p>The Retreat will feature a sauna and steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, a commercial-grade gym, Pilates studio, cinema, library, co-working spaces and private dining room. Rooftop amenities will include a swimming pool, landscaped gardens, outdoor entertaining areas and dog-friendly spaces.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374760]</p>

<p>Designed by Cottee Parker Architects with interiors by Tom Mark Henry and landscape architecture by Aspect Studios, The Tannery comprises 87 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 11 levels overlooking the Brisbane River.</p>

<p>Cottee Parker principal Dee Passenger said preserving the original tannery building had been central to the project's design.</p>

<p>"The easy option would have been to maximise the site's development potential with additional apartments. Instead, McNab has chosen to preserve the original tannery as a shared wellness retreat, ensuring this important piece of Brisbane's history remains at the heart of the community."</p>

<p>Passenger said sustainability also played a key role in the design, with materials from the original industrial site salvaged and repurposed throughout the development.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374761]</p>

<p>Motiv CEO Carly Cottam said buyers had responded strongly to the combination of larger apartments, wellness facilities and the West End lifestyle.</p>

<p>"We are seeing more buyers looking for homes in the sky that provide the space and functionality of a traditional home, while benefiting from the convenience and lifestyle that apartment living brings," Cottam said.</p>

<p>She said purchasers included both owner occupiers and investors, with demand coming from local buyers as well as interstate purchasers.</p>

<p>Coinciding with the public launch, McNab also announced a partnership with Queensland Ballet, whose neighbouring Thomas Dixon Centre shares historical ties with the original Dixon family.</p>

<p>Located on a 4,465 sqm site at 439 Montague Road, The Tannery overlooks the Brisbane River and is around 10 minutes from the CBD.</p>

<p>Construction is underway, with completion expected in the second half of 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=143337]</p>


More than half of residences sold before public sales as McNab announces significant partnership with Queensland Ballet

McNab's The Tannery nears 60 per cent sold before public release, sets two-bedroom West End record

<p>Iwan Sunito's vision for a landmark mixed-use precinct in Sydney's Inner West has taken a major step forward, with approval granted for the $1.9 billion Five Dock development first unveiled earlier this year.</p>

<p>The approved scheme by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/one-global-capital">One Global Capital</a> will deliver an 80,500 sqm mixed-use precinct comprising 840 apartments, integrated hotel accommodation, commercial and retail space, alongside publicly accessible open space designed to create a new destination for the growing suburb.</p>

<p>"This is a significant milestone for One Global Capital and for the future of housing delivery in Sydney," Sunito said.</p>

<p>"The Housing Delivery Authority was established to identify major housing projects capable of delivering meaningful supply more efficiently, and we are delighted that Spencer Street has been recognised as one of those projects.”</p>

<p>He said the declaration reflected the rapid progress achieved since acquiring control of the site.</p>

<p>"In less than seven months we have progressed from taking control of the site to securing entry into one of the NSW Government's most important planning pathways. It reflects the experience of our team, the strength of our consultant group led by Urbis, and our long-term commitment to delivering transformational projects that contribute to Sydney's future."</p>

<p>When the project was revealed earlier this year, Sunito described the opportunity as one of the strongest development sites he had worked on.</p>

<p>"I probably hadn't appreciated the uniqueness of the site until more recently when putting together the concept plans," Sunito said.</p>

<p>"The proximity to the water, and the golf course opposite, is unlike any other part of Parramatta Road. We have a unique position and view corridors over the water that makes this one of the best sites I've worked on."</p>

<p>The development has evolved since its initial announcement, with the approved plans increasing the residential component from the originally proposed 750 apartments to 840 homes while retaining the project's focus on creating an integrated neighbourhood rather than a standalone residential development.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/a-city-within-a-city-iwan-sunito-flags-1-5-billion-mixed-use-precinct-in-five-dock">"A city within a city": Iwan Sunito flags $1.5 billion mixed-use precinct in Five Dock</a></em></p>

<p>The precinct will combine apartments with hotel accommodation, commercial workplaces, retail offerings and public spaces, creating a mixed-use environment intended to serve both residents and the broader Five Dock community. The proposal also continues the collaboration between One Global Capital and internationally recognised architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/koichi-takada-architects">Koichi Takada</a>, whose previous work with Sunito includes Infinity, Arc and Skye North Sydney.</p>

<p>Takada previously said the design was driven by a philosophy of integrating nature into the built environment.</p>

<p>"The concept for this development is born from our design approach to naturalising architecture," Takada said.</p>

<p>"The public realm benefits from biophilic design that integrates generous landscaping, and the development is optimised for natural daylight, airflow and water views to foster wellbeing, sustainability and spaces that foster community interaction."</p>

<p>Sunito has consistently described the project as a "city within a city", with a strong emphasis on creating a destination that extends beyond housing.</p>

<p>"We want to create a development that's not only to be seen, but to be experienced by the whole local community," he said.</p>

<p>The approval comes as Five Dock continues its transformation ahead of the opening of the Sydney Metro West line, with the new Five Dock station set to significantly improve connections between the Inner West, Parramatta and the Sydney CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The precinct will also benefit from its proximity to the Parramatta Road corridor, nearby waterfront parklands and established retail and dining offerings that have made Five Dock one of Sydney's most tightly held Inner West suburbs.</p>


Iwan Sunito secures approval for $1.9 billion Five Dock mixed-use precinct

Unemployment

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT INSIGHT</p>

<p>The good news is that the job market recovery continues – and continues quite spectacularly. More jobs were created in the past six months than any similar period on record. Looking at March alone, the labour market results are truly awesome except for the drop in full-time positions – and that was a payback from the outsized gain in February. Unfortunately however, Aussies will remain sceptical on the speed and scale of the recovery for at least one more month – when the first month of post-JobKeeper data is published.</p>

<p>But it is a case of so far, so good. More people are looking for work, more people are finding work and the jobless rate continues its progress to pre-COVID levels. And while significant spare capacity remains, there were good gains made in the latest month on the measures of hours worked, labour under-employment and under-utilisation.      </p>

<p>Looking ahead, there is indeed the uncertainty about what is the ‘true’ state of the job market after JobKeeper. But reassuringly, all measures of labour demand including job ads/vacancies show that there are plenty of businesses looking for staff. In fact, SEEK has today reported the highest number of monthly job ads in its 23+ year history.  </p>

<p>There are plenty of jobs to be had, but will Aussies fill the available positions? That is the key issue for policymakers, and ultimately the economy. Ultimately if Aussies won’t take up the jobs on offer, then more specific attempts must be made to bring in foreign workers. Otherwise, economic momentum will be constrained.  </p>

<p>The Reserve Bank is expected to stick to its script for now, vowing not to lift cash rates until 2024. That determination to maintain steady rates has been reinforced today showing the consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent in April. But clearly plenty of water will flow under the bridge before 2024.</p>

<p><strong>What do you need to know? </strong></p>

<p>Employment rose by 70,700 in March (consensus: +35,000) after increasing by 88,700 jobs in February. Full-time jobs fell by 20,800 and part-time jobs rose by 91,500 positions. The number of people employed rose to a record high of 13.078 million.</p>

<p>The unemployment rate fell from 5.8 per cent to a 12-month low of 5.6 per cent in March (consensus: 5.7 per cent).</p>

<p>Hours worked rose from 1,762 million hours to a record high of 1,800 million hours (up 2.2 per cent) to be up 1.2 per cent over the year.</p>

<p>Participation rate: The participation rate rose from 66.1 per cent to a record high of 66.3 per cent in March (consensus: 66.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Spare capacity: In March, the underutilisation rate fell from 14.3 per cent to a 15-month low of 13.5 per cent. The underemployment rate fell from 8.5 per cent to 7.9 per cent – a 7-year low.</p>

<p>Unemployment across states in March: NSW 5.4 per cent (February: 5.6 per cent); Victoria 6.1 per cent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 5.9 per cent (6.1 per cent); South Australia 6.3 per cent (6.8 per cent); Western Australia 4.8 per cent (6.0 per cent); Tasmania 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); Northern Territory 5.6 per cent (4.9 per cent); ACT 3.4 per cent (4.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Employment across states in March: NSW (+14,700); Victoria (+6,100), Queensland (+23,300), South Australia (-600), Tasmania (+400), the ACT (-2,700), Western Australia (+32,600) and the Northern Territory (-1,600).  </p>

<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong></p>

<p>One year on from the COVID lockdown and more Aussies are in jobs than ever before. Collectively Aussies are also working more hours than ever before. And the proportion of females employed has never been higher. We need to remember than when the jobless rate lifted to 7.5 per cent in May 2020, some economists were tipping that it would ultimately peak in excess of 16 per cent.</p>

<p>The economy has out-performed the ‘official’ forecasts from Federal Treasury and the Reserve Bank. If this out-performance remains significant then monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will need to be re-assessed. But that point is still some way off. Foreign borders remain closed, the vaccine roll-out is still slow and less than a month has passed since JobKeeper ended.</p>

<p>The record lift in jobs, together with the strengthening of job security will underpin consumer spending in coming months. And the desire to engage in retail therapy will be underpinned by the likelihood that the foreign border will be closed until much later in the year.</p>

<p>The improvement in the Western Australian job market is clearly a stand-out. The state led the nation in job creation in March and the jobless rate is the lowest for over seven years (since December 2013) – assisted in part by low population growth. The housing market will clearly be a key driver of the economy in 2021, courtesy of Building Bonus Grant and the HomeBuilder grant. In addition, the mining sector continues to be supported by solid demand and high commodity prices. Jobs growth in Queensland occurred following the announcement of the $200 travel voucher scheme, while interstate migration continues to support economic activity in the Sunshine State.       </p>

<p> </p>
</body></html>

cjames

The number of people employed reached a record high in March: CommSec's Craig James

<html><body>
<p>The rapidly improving labour market is likely to spur confidence and housing affordability, adding upward pressure to already strong house prices, according to Archistar chief economist Dr Andrew Wilson.</p>

<p>His comments come after the Australian Bureau of Statistics unveiled a sharp fall in jobless rates for February, to near-pre-COVID levels.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=27070]</p>

<p>“The unemployment rate has fallen sharply over February and is now remarkably within striking distance of pre-COVID shutdown levels, less than a year from the commencement of the pandemic.</p>

<p>“The ABS reports that the national unemployment rate seasonally adjusted fell sharply by 0.5% over February to 5.8% - the lowest rate since the pre-covid result of 5.2% recorded over March 2020.</p>

<p>“The number employed nationally has now almost recovered to pre-covid levels to be now down by just 1800 since March 2020."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758]</p>

<p>Dr Wilson noted all states reported falls in the jobless rate over February with QLD the best performer falling by 0.8%. NSW and VIC reported the lowest jobless rates at 5.6%.</p>

<p>“Capital city housing markets have recorded strong buyer demand this year so far with prices rising sharply – particularly in Melbourne and Sydney.," he said.</p>

<p>“And concerns over the possible significant negative impact on the economy of the tapering of the Job Keeper allowances at the end of this month will also likely to be to be misplaced – again.”</p>
</body></html>

The rapidly improving labour market is likely to add upward pressure to already strong house prices, according to Archistar chief economist Dr Andrew Wilson.

jchancellor

Low unemployment to add upward pressure on house prices

<html><body>
<p>Philip Lowe, the RBA Governor, has indicated the central bank's primary concern is employment, and those who don’t have a job and whose wages aren’t growing at sufficiently high rates. </p>

<p>"So to the extent that anything keeps me awake at night, that’s what worries me is the social and economic cost from a protracted period of unemployment. </p>

<p>"We know that low interest rates do push up asset prices, that’s part of the transmission mechanism. </p>

<p>"What would concern me, if we saw on the back of these rising asset prices, lending standards deteriorate and people go into the bank and borrowing ridiculous amounts of money in a speculative boom. </p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=29660]</p>

<p>"So this is why our focus is very much on making sure these lending standards remain sound because that would be a big problem if we saw a debt financed speculative boom in asset prices. </p>

<p>"We are not seeing that at the moment. </p>

<p>"The equity market is below its previous peaks, housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne, while they’re rising, they’re not really higher than they got to a little while back in some of the smaller capital cities. </p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4939]</p>

<p>"In regional Australia housing prices are rising quickly, but there are fundamental factors at work here. </p>

<p>"So the issue is if prices are rising, are people borrowing responsibly and carefully? </p>

<p>"And to date they are," Philip Lowe concluded.</p>

<p>Lowe also warned that looser lending standards would increase the upward pressure on house prices and create financial risks.</p>

<p>“We are not at this point, but we are watching carefully,” he said.</p>
</body></html>

The RBA Governor Philip Lowe has said he would be worried if Australians started “borrowing ridiculous amounts of money” in a speculative way.



Don't borrow ridiculous amounts of money: RBA Governor's warning to home buyers

<html><body>
<div>I took a look <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/06/unemployment-falls-to-54pc" target="_blank">here</a> at the employment growth figures during the week, which broadly showed that the unemployment rate in Australia is back down to where it was in 2013. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of unemployed persons dropped sharply in the month of May, down by 26,800 to 714,600, taking the unemployment rate down from 5.6 per cent to 5.4 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>So that's the good news. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The state making the most substantial inroads lately has been Victoria, with the number of unemployed persons down to 174,400 from 208,500 a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Very good news!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate in Victoria has declined accordingly to 5.1 per cent, down from 6.1 per cent a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So that's getting quite close to the 4.9 per cent of New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Like Sydney before it, Melbourne is enjoying the fruits of its construction boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some progress, then, but overall there are still more than 700,000 out of work, and there remains plenty of slack in the labour force nationally. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A look at the trend chart for unemployed persons underscores this point.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In October 2014 the two most populous states had a combined 442,900 unemployed persons, a figure that's since fallen by about 60,000 or 14 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wxFOA13nJc8/WyQxuec63KI/AAAAAAAAqkg/-i5Ua9cfvEAOpAUXxC42-sr0pzY3aOaDACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1400"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Elsewhere, however, in aggregate there's been little meaningful progress. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With regards to underemployment, the the trend rate declined to 8.5 per cent in May 2017, which is a bit below peak of 8.7 per cent seen in 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, the underutilisation rate also declined by 0.4 per cent to 13.9 per cent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just about enough evidence here to suggest an ongoing improvement.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Like Sydney before it, Melbourne is enjoying the fruits of its construction boom: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>The ABS released its Labour Force data for August 2015, which came in somewhat better than had been expected. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The market had feared material downward revisions to employment figures following amendments to population growth assumptions, but happily in the event the impact was fairly benign.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is nevertheless worth looking at the revised data in the long run employment chart below to show the new shape of the chart...which is to say, essentially very similar.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total employment was revised down, but over the year total employment still increased by +235,000 or +2.0% (up from +1.8% in the year to July), an impressive headline figure and the strongest annual increase in the seasonally adjusted data series since April 2011.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Handily this rate of employment growth is now far ahead of the rate of population growth, which following the latest Arrivals &amp; Departures (see link for more) figures I now estimate to be tracking at only around +1.3%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/11/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/11/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Employment rose by +17,400 in August following an upwardly revised gain in employment of +39,200 in August, which is a fine result in the circumstances and well ahead of market expectations of +5,000.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/11/LF3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/11/LF3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Full time jobs accounted for most of the monthly gains, and over the past year there have been more full time jobs created (+130,700) than part time positions (+104,200) - although as you can see below part time employment is taking a more significant role in the labour force than it once did. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/11/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/11/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state...&amp; the unemployment rate</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The net employment gains in August were mainly accounted for by Queensland (+11,200) and New South Wales (+9,200), with the New South Wales economy adding a thunderous +118,800 jobs over the past year, more than half of the total for Australia, and overwhelmingly full time positions.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Victoria (+63,000), Western Australia (+22,100) and Queensland (+20,700) also added net employment over the past year, but South Australia has gone backwards over the same time period. </div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/11/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/09/11/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div class="separator">
<span>I have been warning here for at least a couple of years now that the longer this ugly dynamic continues and without a kickstart for the local economy the greater the fallout could be in terms of South Australian unemployment. </span><br><span><br></span><span>Amazingly there were more full time employed persons in Q4 2007 in South Australia than there are today. </span><br><span><br></span><span>The below graphic shows that while the New South Wales economy has added a stonking +267,200 jobs over the past five years, the two southern states combined have added essentially none. </span>
</div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/11/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span><img src="/images/2015/09/11/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div>That said, with the depreciating dollar the outlook for Tasmania has improved considerably over the past 18 months, and without sigificant population growth to be absorbed the trend unemployment rate in the Apple Isle has declined from a peak of 8.1 per cent in August 2013 to just 6.5 per cent today.<br><br>That's great to see.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately the same cannot be said for South Australia where the trend unemployment rate has spiked alarmingly from 6.6 per cent to 8.1 per cent and rising in less than a year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Concerningly it appears likely that there may yet be worse to come as the "Holden effect" takes its toll across the suburbs of Adelaide, with mining and manufacturing two of the worst hit sectors of the labour market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate in resources rich Western Australia has also continued to trend up to 6.1 per cent from just 3.7 per cent in June 2012. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/11/a7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/11/a7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>New South Wales has been the clear standout despite soft regional employment growth, with low interest rates allowing the Sydney economy and housing market to fire on all cylinders. </div>
<div>
<br>At the national level despite some statistical noise along the way the trend unemployment rate has now been steady for the past 12 months at 6.2 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/11/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/11/A6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>With the rate of employment growth comfortablt outpacing the rate of population growth, has the unemployment rate therefore peaked for this cycle? Perhaps, but the jury is still out on that one. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was a robust result with the economy adding a sprightly +235,000 jobs over the past year and with corresponding important implications for monetary policy settings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Had the unemployment rate jumped higher as had been anticipated by some analysts prior to this release then the Reserve Bank may well have been inclined to pull the trigger on further interest rate cuts.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fortunately in the event the labour force figures were considerably better than had been feared and markets now appear fairly certain that interest rates will stay on hold at 2 per cent through October. </div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Unemployment falls back to 6.2%: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The ABS released its Characteristics of Recent Migrants survey for November 2016 yesterday, a release which the statistician puts out every three years. </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The anti-immgration lobby will be trawling through the figures to see whether migrants were taking all our jobs (go home, we're full!) or not working enough (bludgers!), but in the end the three-year change in the figures wasn't all that remarkable.</div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>Most migrants are employed, including 82 percent of skilled migrants, while the unemployment rate for Australian born citizens at 5.4 per cent was comfortably lower than the national average.</div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The labour force participation rate for recent migrants and temporary residents remained high at 70 per cent, and 84 per cent reported that wages or a salary were the main source of household income. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Recent migrants head to capitals</span></strong></div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The system is broadly working as it should, then, while the recent increase in permanent settlers is largely accounted for by an increased refugee intake from Iraq and Syria.  </div>
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<div>One significant trend which stood out to me was the clear acceleration in recent migrants with their usual place of residence in one of the capital cities. </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>Migrants have always preferred the capital cities, of course, but at 88.3 percent the figure has clearly been accelerating higher over the past dozen years to now sit at incredibly high levels.  </div>
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<div>Given that Australia's rate of immigration has also increased dramatically over the past dozen years this is potentially a hugely significant demographic trend.  </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>About 55 percent of Australia's population growth is presently accounted for by net overseas migration, while the other 45 percent relates to natural growth (being more births than deaths). </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The trend towards capital cities holds true across all visa classes, but particularly so for those arriving as international students, a means of entry which is set to the most consequential driver of demographic trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/14/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>Looking at the geographical figures it becomes clear that since the peak of the resources boom Western Australia is not attracting or retaining recent migrants as successfully as it once was, while the southern states have not been retaining as many migrants as they might wish to. </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The slack has been instead picked up by Sydney, and to a lesser extent Melbourne.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/14/B2.jpg" alt=""></h3>
<div>Interestingly Sydney loses a chunk of its population each year interstate or to other parts of regional New South Wales, meaning that the residual population of Greater Sydney is heavily tilted towards overseas born residents. </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>Melbourne and Brisbane on the other hand are attracting migrants internally, and as a result absolute population growth is tracking at record highs in Greater Melbourne, and is picking up speed in Brisbane.</div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </em><a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2"><em>AllenWargent</em></span></a><em> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </em><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2"><em>blogger</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay"> </a></h3>
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Migrants flocking to capital cities - and staying there too: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another substantial surge in jobs was reported for June, with total employment up by a seasonally adjusted 50,900 in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This led to the usual quibbles about whether the figures are 'right' or not. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This seldom happens when the number are below expectations.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But when there's a beat...every time!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are even occasional calls to ditch the seasonally adjusted figures entirely in favour of the smoother trend data, but I'm not sure I buy that.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What are the trend figures, after all, but a representation of the same numbers from the survey? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The further you disaggregate the figures the more prone they are to throwing out unusual results. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For example, Macquarie highlighted an oddity in that the bulk of jobs growth over the past four months was accounted for by youth employment, especially from the female cohort.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The detailed labour force figures at the regional level are similarly prone to volatility, which is why the ABS reports annual average figures in addition to the original survey results. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For all of the grouching, the labour force has continued to tighten gradually over the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For the monthly doubters, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has now fallen by more than one percent from 6.38 per cent in October 2014 to 5.37 per cent in June 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you prefer to use the trend rate, then that's plotted below for you too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate is now at the lowest level since 2012. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2JWVaIcKwE8/W1MPTWopYJI/AAAAAAAArJk/IQFNOPE6G2YyoZHHpHb87bnv0fECz6rbQCLcBGAs/s640/UE.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1363"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Another piece of pessimistic statistical trickery is to highlight the underutilisation rate while neglecting to report the more telling volume measures of underutilisation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, yes lots of people want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four calendar years too. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sVMjYyerNWg/W1MU3jafYNI/AAAAAAAArJ4/jK4rZLKxv_44Z1qA933gSjo2fI98wB8DACLcBGAs/s640/UU.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1355"></div>
<p><br><span>This is good news, and it should be embraced as such!</span><br><br><span>Welcome to the recovery.</span></p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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The labour market is improving: Pete Wargent

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<div id="post-body-1755958549475955952" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Couldn't think what to blog about today - creative juices aren't flowing at all, perhaps I need black coffee - so thought that for something different I'd take a look at Australia's oft-discussed government debt, and a few forecasts from the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM).<br><br>The unemployment rate in Australia has declined from 6.3 percent to 5.7 percent since the beginning of 2015, taking the trend unemployment rate to its lowest level in 34 months at 5.71 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/B3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>The supporting figures, however, show that we are absolutely miles away from full employment, with oodles of part time work and under-employment around. </div>
<br><div>Indeed, tomorrow's capex report will likely show that the collapse of business investment in the <strong>mining</strong> sector has spilled over adversely into associated parts of the services and manufacturing sectors (since some of these businesses naturally provided inputs into the resources investment boom - warehousing, transport, equipment manufacture, and so on).<br><br>In effect, via the unwinding of mining capex resources regions will be experiencing the multiplier effect of the mining investment boom in reverse, sucking some mining-dependent regions in Western Australia and Queensland into a gravitational black hole. I think this has already happened, in truth, the data will just confirm it.<br><br>Anyway, that's tomorrow's news, but one senses the outlook for capital expenditure won't be all that great, and the recovery in all likelihood has a long way to run.<br><br><a href="/images/2016/09/01/Lifecycle.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<div>
<img src="/images/2016/09/01/Lifecycle.jpg" alt=""><br><br>(huge h/t to whichever internet wag created the above graphic - it gets me every time...too funny).<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Some Treasury forecasts...</span></strong><br><br>As new resources projects come online, Treasury expects the Australian economy to keep growing at a solid clip, in part driven by increasing export volumes, particularly of LNG.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Treasury has maintained its positive forecasts for real GDP growth over the next few years, with economic growth to be aided by household consumption and net exports as the export volumes increase.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, these forecasts somewhat optimistically assume that household consumption will continue to remain positive, with the terms of trade holding also up at a level above anything we saw prior to the start of the boom (rather questionable given the trend since 2012!). Coking coal prices are booming - up by more than 40 per cent in August - but the outlook for iron ore prices may be grim.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/TOT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/TOT.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>Tourism and education exports are also expected to be key contributors, a theme I've looked at quite a bit on this blog.<br><br><a href="/images/2016/09/01/Services.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><img src="/images/2016/09/01/Services.jpg" alt=""><br><br>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Government borrowing</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the government is making noises about trimming dollars and cents from its budget expenditure, behind the scenes the government is expected to keep borrowing hard, in part for infrastructure projects.<br><br>There are now $397 billion of Treasury bond securities across 23 lines on issue - a dozen of which have more at least A$20 billion outstanding - but look how low some of those coupon rates are...</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div class="separator">There are a further $30.6 billion of Treasury indexed bonds and $3.5 billion of Treasury notes, adding up to a total of <strong>$431.2 billion</strong> of government securities on issue. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Fortunately bond yields are so low that the government can borrow at around the lowest yields on record without adding unduly to the interest burden.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/RBA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/RBA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And government bonds on issue are expected to keep rising, with there having been strong inflows from Japan into Australia's debt securities over the last three years.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Gross issuance of Treasury Bonds is expected to be A$90 billion in 2016-17, up marginally from last year, with net issuance of $68.9 billion (and an additional $3 billion of net issuance in Treasury Notes).</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator">That will take Australian government bonds on issue to well beyond 25 per cent of GDP (though Australia's net debt to GDP ratio is somewhat lower) - which is not really very high compared to other deficit countries - e.g. Japan, Canada, the United States, Greece, France, or the United Kingdom - but nevertheless moving in an unmistakeably northwards direction since the financial crisis took hold. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">How you feel about that really depends upon your position. Some argue that it's borrowing from the future. Others maintain that it makes a lot of sense to borrow for infrastructure projects when bond yields and coupon rates are so low, and while mining investment is still in freefall. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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<div class="post-footer"> </div>
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Government debt and the capex black hole: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>While Victoria and NSW have been hardest hit by the health crisis, Queensland’s job market has fared worst.</p>
<p>The Sunshine State’s unemployment rate was the highest in Australia at 8.8 per cent in July – a 19-year high. And 144,500 jobs were lost between February and July as international and state border closures impacted tourism. </p>
<p>Of the 20 regions with the highest unemployment rates in the land, Queensland had the highest representation with nine in July. Leading the way was Wide Bay, where the jobless rate rose by 8.2 percentage points - the second most in the nation - to 17 per cent. Next was the Queensland Outback (10.9 per cent), followed by Brisbane’s Moreton Bay South (10.5 per cent), Ipswich (10.1 per cent) and the Sunshine Coast (9.8 per cent). </p>
<p>But Western Australia also featured prominently. Apart from Mandurah’s nation-topping 18 per cent jobless rate, Perth’s North-West lost the most jobs (-30,200) between February and July. And Western Australia’s unemployment rate of 8.3 per cent is the second highest in Australia - now at 20-year highs. </p>
<p>Since the economy re-opened from the first virus lockdown in May, most jobs have been added or reinstated in Sydney’s Parramatta (+20,600) and Ryde (+14,600) with the NSW Central Coast (+14,400) the third best performing region. But the data excludes the impact of Victoria’s level four restrictions, which will feature prominently in the August update.</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong> </p>
<p>After the historic plunge in Aussie jobs due to first virus lockdown in April, the labour market is showing tentative signs of improvement as restrictions are eased and the economy (outside of Victoria) is gradually reopened. </p>
<p>The July labour force report surprised on the upside, beating economist expectations of an addition of 30,000 jobs. In fact, employment rose in the month by 114,700. </p>
<p>But the nascent recovery in the job market is incredibly uneven. While Victoria is likely to lose the most jobs because of lockdown 2.0, Queensland and Western Australia - which have both enjoyed more success at containing and suppressing the virus - aren’t faring much better. Queensland is highly dependent on interstate and international tourism. And Western Australia continues to be captive to the fortunes of mining. </p>
<p>That said, with iron ore prices straddling 6½-year highs on the back of the Chinese industrial-led recovery, the Western Australian economy is well positioned to recover first from the COVID-19 recession. Already 19,100 jobs were added or reinstated in July with skilled job vacancies up by 11.3 per cent. </p>
<p>NSW is managing to keep Sydney’s virus flare ups at bay for now. NSW - which has lost 134,300 jobs since February - added 56,800 jobs in July. Jobs are returning in Parramatta, Ryde and the nearby NSW Central Coast. But unemployment is high in NSW tourism and retiree ‘lifestyle’ regions, such as Coffs Harbour-Grafton (11.6 per cent) and Newcastle &amp; Lake Macquarie (9.7 per cent). Policymakers certainly have a delicate balancing act addressing disparities in joblessness nationally. </p>
<p>China’s industrial recovery continues with the country on track to rebound quickest of all major economies from the virus economic contraction. While stimulus is feeding through to construction, manufacturing and infrastructure activity, policymakers remain wary given high debt levels. China’s Loan Prime Rates have been stable - keeping mortgage and corporate lending rates anchored at low levels - but the State Council has said that it will cut rates again to support still-weak domestic demand, if necessary.</p>
<p><strong>Ryan Felsman</strong> <em>is a Senior Economist at CommSec</em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Double-digit regional unemployment rates: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>This week we received important updates to the state of Australia’s labour market.</p>
<p>In times of economic crisis the labour market, quite rightly, attracts more attention than any other economic series.</p>
<p>The most indelible imprint that recessions make on economies is the legacy of high sustained unemployment.</p>
<p>Following the recession of the early 1980’s it took six years for the unemployment rate to return to its pre-recession level; after the early 1990’s recession it took fifteen years; and the 4% unemployment rate we enjoyed in the lead up to the Global Financial Crisis has never since been achieved – nearly thirteen years later.</p>
<p>On June 18 the ABS reported that the unemployment rate had jumped to 7.1% in May – the highest since October 2001.</p>
<p>Employment decreased by 227,700 following a 607,400 reduction in employment in April.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate would have been much higher if not for a number of factors:</p>
<p>Over the April-May period 623,600 people left the labour force (that is employed or actively looking for work and available for work) – largely, we expect, due to displaced workers being discouraged with the prospects of finding work; complications around school closures or the physical limitations of looking for work during a shutdown.</p>
<p>Without these people leaving the workforce the unemployment rate would have been 11.3%.</p>
<p>In May over 360,000 did not work at all but were categorised as “employed” because they still had an attachment to their employer (reasons include being stood down for less than four weeks; insufficient work; or no work available).</p>
<p>This represents a reduction from 750,000 in April as some workers who had been stood down transitioned to actually losing their jobs.</p>
<p>In May nearly 1.2 million did some work, but worked fewer hours than usual.</p>
<p><strong>BILL EVANS</strong> <em>is Westpac’s economic spokesman and the head of economic research</em></p>
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