<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.</p>

<p>A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.</p>

<p>Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]</p>

<p>“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.</p>

<p>From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.</p>

<p>The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]</p>

<p>Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.</p>

<p>A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.</p>

<p>Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]</p>

<p>Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.</p>

<p>“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.</p>

<p>Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]</p>

<p>Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.</p>

<p data-end="8307" data-start="8063">The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.</p>

<p data-end="8543" data-start="8312">“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”</p>

<p data-end="8915" data-start="8548">The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.</p>

<p>The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]</p>


Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

<p>A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.</p>

<p>The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.</p>

<p>Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.</p>

<p>The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.</p>

<p>The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" /></p>

<p>Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.</p>

<p>Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.</p>

<p>The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."</p>

<p>The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" /></p>

<p>Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.</p>

<p>The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.</p>


First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

<p>
<style type="text/css">
</style>
</p>

<p>A 60-apartment building nine storeys tall would be a rarity almost anywhere along this stretch of Moreton Bay, but that's exactly what's been lodged for a modest Deception Bay street better known for its single-storey weatherboard homes.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherlock-construction-homes">Sherlock Construction Homes</a> is seeking to push Deception Bay’s emerging medium-density housing profile higher, lodging plans for a nine-storey apartment building near the suburb’s shopping centre and foreshore.</p>

<p>Dubbed Grosvenor Apartments, the proposal at 14-20 Grosvenor Terrace would replace two detached homes with a new building designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mode">Mode Design</a>&nbsp;which would&nbsp;reach nearly 30 metres, well above the site’s mapped 21-metre building height.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="86c21a25-5a97-4ca7-a361-80757137ea5b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20da%20front.png?VersionId=aXIujfvEhH33sLHOEjHFv9Ii6qxSvAF4" /></p>

<p>The apartment mix is weighted toward larger homes, with 14 three-bedroom apartments, 31 two-bedroom apartments and 15 one-bedroom apartments. Six apartment types are spread across the floors, ranging from 66 sqm one-bedroom units through to three-bedroom apartments of 116 sqm, most with private balconies or terraces.</p>

<p>Levels one through seven follow a consistent layout of six to eight apartments per floor arranged around a central lift and stair core, with the top floor, level eight, trading one apartment for a landscaped community breakout space rather than repeating the standard layout below.</p>

<p>Ground floor is dedicated to arrival and services, with a lobby, mailroom and manager's office, alongside 91 car spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b098bde0-5fe1-4e6c-9601-e5446612e5fc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20podium.png?VersionId=A0hfENMNxSxkfh9Jl6D4WJ9XIraeOukA" /></p>

<p>Mode Design's brief describes a "serene coastal-inspired design blending soft curves, natural textures and light-filled spaces to reflect the relaxed Deception Bay lifestyle."&nbsp;</p>

<p>The material palette leans on white and grey render, timber-look aluminium screening and stacked-brick-look finishes, with hanging greenery and vine planting proposed across balcony edges and ground-level walls.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Balconies feature asymmetrical geometries intended to vary the building's rhythm rather than repeat a single module up the tower, while lush planting is concentrated over the entry and level one balconies to soften the building's base.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c05c5693-3e00-42d0-b075-55c36094f4db" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20da%201.png?VersionId=cMKJgBsBaaVCd2dA5O22SOT38OT_.BPA" /></p>

<p>The design evolved following an April 2025 prelodgement meeting with council. At that stage, the project was conceived as a seven-storey building containing 45 apartments. The subsequently lodged scheme increases the development to nine storeys and 60 apartments while introducing one-bedroom residences to the mix.</p>

<p>Zone Planning argues the additional scale reflects the site's position within an area earmarked for increased residential intensity. The planning report points to the North Lakes-Redcliffe-Moreton Bay Rail corridor strategy, which identifies Deception Bay as a district-level activity centre and supports greater housing choice within urban neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Market Square Deception Bay, Deception Bay Sports Centre, Deception Bay State School, public transport, community facilities and the Moreton Bay foreshore are all identified within approximately one kilometre of the site, while the property falls within a 400-metre walking catchment of Market Square.</p>

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

Unemployment

<html><body>
<p>The latest ABS unemployment figures show the trend unemployment rate is at a six year low.</p>
<p><span>The trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2 per cent in the month of September 2018 after the August figure was revised down.</span><br><br><span>"Today's figures continue to show a gradual decrease in the trend unemployment rate that began in late 2014," ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said.</span></p>
<p><span>"The trend unemployment rate of 5.2 per cent is the lowest it has been since mid 2012."</span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/18/abs-unemp.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/18/abs-unemp.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Over the year, trend employment increased by over 290,000 persons or 2.4 per cent, which was above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent). </span> </p>
<p><span>Unemployment is down to 4.4% in New South Wales, 4.5% in Victoria and to 6% in Western Australia.</span></p>
<p>Ahead of the unemployment figures the employment segment of the NAB Quarterly Business Survey rose 2.4 points in September.</p>
<p>The jump, from +9.5 points in August to 11.9 point in September, brings the total points to the third highest level in 12 and a half years.</p>
<p>The 12 month moving average of +10 points is a record high.</p>
<p>NAB group chief economist Alan Oster said business conditions have stabilised after a mid-year pullback. </p>
<p><strong><span> </span></strong>“Business conditions have pulled back through the middle of 2018 after reaching very high levels earlier in the year. However, the latest monthly survey suggests that conditions have stabilised at a still high level," Oster said.</p>
<p>"This suggests that momentum in the business sector has not weakened further. Overall, trading conditions, profitability and employment conditions remain quite favourable.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>Oster noted that despite conditions easing</span> across most industries, generally most industries continue to report above average conditions.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">"Retail however, remains weak, as it has been for some time," Oster noted.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Roy Morgan's latest data found 246,000 more Australians employed than last year, with unemployment down to 9.4 percent in September off a two-year high.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">"Australian employment has grown solidly over the past year with nearly 200,000 jobs created split evenly between full-time and part-time employment," the market research firm advised.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">There were a total of 12,164,000 Australians employed in September, up 192,000 over the last year.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">The September increase however was split evenly across full time jobs (97,000 created) and part-time jobs (95,000 created).</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said as a consequence, part-time employment in Australia has hit a new record high of nearly 4.5 million in September.</p>
<p>“In addition to the new jobs created a further 54,000 Australians entering the workforce were unable to find a job and became unemployed," Levine said.</p>
<p>"Now 1.3 million Australians are unemployed in September equivalent to 9.4% of the workforce and up 0.3% on a year ago," Levine said.</p>
<p>Compared to three years ago, there are now 4.1% less Australians in full-time work (63.3%), while part-time employment is up 4.1% (36.7%).</p>
<p>“As we’ve noted previously the persistent high level of unemployment and under-employment in Australia isn’t because jobs aren’t being created, it’s because the workforce continues to grow at a faster rate than the growth in employment," Levine suggested.</p>
<p>"Not only is the expanding Australian workforce not providing enough jobs to reduce unemployment but the long-term trend of an increasing casualisation of the Australian workforce is continuing.</p>
<p>The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 0.7 percent to 117.3 in the past week.</p>
<p>The index is comfortably above the average of 114.2 held since 2014, and above the longer term average of 113 held since 1990.</p>
<p>CommSec's Ryan Felsman said the hiring spree in Australia continues.</p>
<p>"Labour market conditions are positive, employment growth is solid, the unemployment rate is at six-year lows, job vacancies are elevated and the participation rate has been hovering near record high levels," he said.</p>
<p>"And while home prices have moderated in Greater Sydney and Melbourne, the unemployment rates in both cities are at near ten-year (4.4 per cent) and six-year (5.5 per cent) lows in August."</p>
<p>Felsman said further job gains are anticipated, with the Aussie domestic economic backdrop supportive.</p>
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Trend unemployment rate at six year low: ABS

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION </p>
<p>Job vacancies surged to record highs in both New South Wales (82,400) and Victoria (72,000) last month as those states get set to enjoy an extraordinary hiring boom.</p>
<p>There were broad-based gains across a raft of industries, including professional and technical services, financial and insurance services, healthcare and social assistance, mining, construction, accommodation and food, transport, postal and warehousing, arts and recreational, administrative and support roles, education, and more. </p>
<p>The ongoing resurgence in the mining sector helped to lift job vacancies in Western Australia (27,600) to the highest level in half a decade, while Queensland (35,100) and South Australia (11,900) have improved significantly over the past couple of years. </p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6geqbjFj3UA/W6yM3FQR4AI/AAAAAAAAsGE/54OOUZjxE14_ja7T2vU30Z1_XN4AB1z4wCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6geqbjFj3UA/W6yM3FQR4AI/AAAAAAAAsGE/54OOUZjxE14_ja7T2vU30Z1_XN4AB1z4wCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1376"></a></p>
<p>The Tasmanian economy is also firing, with the Northern Territory potentially the one serious laggard. </p>
<p>The trend in private sector vacancies scorched more than 20% higher over the year, while the trend annual increase in all sectors was 19.3%, taking the total number of vacancies to the highest ever level at 240,900. Goodness!</p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gdCGqYzu_-I/W6yM3BmmiBI/AAAAAAAAsGI/dMb4fYx8X9srOOEhSXW_JYIocugEDvWIACEwYBhgL/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gdCGqYzu_-I/W6yM3BmmiBI/AAAAAAAAsGI/dMb4fYx8X9srOOEhSXW_JYIocugEDvWIACEwYBhgL/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1357"></a></p>
<p><strong>More hiring ahead</strong></p>
<p>There will be some half-hearted attempts to talk down the result by the Opposition, but the facts don't lie: at under 3% the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy now has a two-handle for the first time since the mining boom...which is surely great to see.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-56f7SXAgf4Q/W6yP0fiWpbI/AAAAAAAAsGY/8jK0R-zOCSkuox3KTC6QpuiIIm_IkvujACLcBGAs/s1600/A4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-56f7SXAgf4Q/W6yP0fiWpbI/AAAAAAAAsGY/8jK0R-zOCSkuox3KTC6QpuiIIm_IkvujACLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1341"></a></p>
<p>Of course, the labour force has expanded significantly too as discouraged workers come back into the fold alongside record high female participation (the rise in dual income households being an under-appreciated boon for housing markets).</p>
<p>But even accounting for this the figures point to an ongoing decline in the unemployment rate towards 5%, and lower still for New South Wales and Victoria.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RrYk-jXZNc0/W6yM3I7DnPI/AAAAAAAAsGA/aKvYfIpUEkIpVVyiFjZtw7Wub3DVim-DgCLcBGAs/s1600/A3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RrYk-jXZNc0/W6yM3I7DnPI/AAAAAAAAsGA/aKvYfIpUEkIpVVyiFjZtw7Wub3DVim-DgCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1384"></a></p>
<p><strong>Hirin' now!</strong></p>
<p>Overall, this release was very positive news, with the economy continuing to improve in the two most populated states, and the resources states generally now on the up too.</p>
<p>All this means that Australia has never had as many jobs to be filled as it does right now.</p>
<p>Good stuff.</p>
<hr>
<p>The Hometrack UK 20 Cities House Price Index increased by a further 3.9% over the year to August 2018. </p>
<p>It's been a wild week of bickering for Australian housing market commentary thanks to yet another (now-traditional) <em>60 Minutes </em>beat-up.<br><br> But in the background the fundamentals of the economy quietly continue to improve: exports, tourism, government revenues and the Budget balance, hiring, engineering construction, and so on (resulting in a risk rating upgrade to AAA neutral). </p>
<p>One of the neat things about our mortgage broker liaison is that since brokers take 'snapshots' in time, we can take a mortgage application from today and re-run it against the lending standards of yesteryear.</p>
<p>While the results do vary quite a bit, typically a home buyer applicant might see their borrowing capacity cut by about 10% from where things were a year ago due to tightened lending standards, while for some portfolio investors the equivalent figure can be much greater.<br><br> In fact, many portfolio investors simply won't be able to borrow at all in the present environment. </p>
<p>On its own this probably won't have as big an impact on the housing market as some people think (cf. the United Kingdom, where tighter mortgage lending criteria have failed to stop house prices from rising to fresh highs in nominal terms).</p>
<p>Firstly, that's because home buyers don't always borrow the maximum amount permissible.</p>
<p>And secondly, it's because most investors don't own more than one or two properties - thus portfolio investors are only one small part of the pie, albeit an important one at the margin.<br><br> In fact, the average loan size is still being written at or around record highs, but in lower volumes now.</p>
<p>ANZ updated its somewhat more sober house price forecasts today, expecting prices to decline by just 2% in 2019 - a mere 20-fold improvement on the lame<em> 60 Minutes</em> offering - with a market peak-to-trough fall for Sydney and Melbourne expected of no more than 10%. </p>
<p>ANZ also noted that it was more upbeat for the housing market prospects of Brisbane, Adelaide, and Canberra, as well as many of Australia's regional housing markets. </p>
<p>Looking forward, the sheer strength of the hiring figures makes it hard to disagree with that assessment. </p>
<p><em><strong>PETE WARGENT </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Expect an ongoing decline in the unemployment rate: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another substantial surge in jobs was reported for June, with total employment up by a seasonally adjusted 50,900 in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This led to the usual quibbles about whether the figures are 'right' or not. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This seldom happens when the number are below expectations.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But when there's a beat...every time!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are even occasional calls to ditch the seasonally adjusted figures entirely in favour of the smoother trend data, but I'm not sure I buy that.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What are the trend figures, after all, but a representation of the same numbers from the survey? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The further you disaggregate the figures the more prone they are to throwing out unusual results. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For example, Macquarie highlighted an oddity in that the bulk of jobs growth over the past four months was accounted for by youth employment, especially from the female cohort.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The detailed labour force figures at the regional level are similarly prone to volatility, which is why the ABS reports annual average figures in addition to the original survey results. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For all of the grouching, the labour force has continued to tighten gradually over the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For the monthly doubters, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has now fallen by more than one percent from 6.38 per cent in October 2014 to 5.37 per cent in June 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you prefer to use the trend rate, then that's plotted below for you too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate is now at the lowest level since 2012. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2JWVaIcKwE8/W1MPTWopYJI/AAAAAAAArJk/IQFNOPE6G2YyoZHHpHb87bnv0fECz6rbQCLcBGAs/s640/UE.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1363"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Another piece of pessimistic statistical trickery is to highlight the underutilisation rate while neglecting to report the more telling volume measures of underutilisation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, yes lots of people want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four calendar years too. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sVMjYyerNWg/W1MU3jafYNI/AAAAAAAArJ4/jK4rZLKxv_44Z1qA933gSjo2fI98wB8DACLcBGAs/s640/UU.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1355"></div>
<p><br><span>This is good news, and it should be embraced as such!</span><br><br><span>Welcome to the recovery.</span></p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

The labour market is improving: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>I took a look <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/06/unemployment-falls-to-54pc" target="_blank">here</a> at the employment growth figures during the week, which broadly showed that the unemployment rate in Australia is back down to where it was in 2013. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of unemployed persons dropped sharply in the month of May, down by 26,800 to 714,600, taking the unemployment rate down from 5.6 per cent to 5.4 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>So that's the good news. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The state making the most substantial inroads lately has been Victoria, with the number of unemployed persons down to 174,400 from 208,500 a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Very good news!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate in Victoria has declined accordingly to 5.1 per cent, down from 6.1 per cent a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So that's getting quite close to the 4.9 per cent of New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Like Sydney before it, Melbourne is enjoying the fruits of its construction boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some progress, then, but overall there are still more than 700,000 out of work, and there remains plenty of slack in the labour force nationally. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A look at the trend chart for unemployed persons underscores this point.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In October 2014 the two most populous states had a combined 442,900 unemployed persons, a figure that's since fallen by about 60,000 or 14 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wxFOA13nJc8/WyQxuec63KI/AAAAAAAAqkg/-i5Ua9cfvEAOpAUXxC42-sr0pzY3aOaDACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1400"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Elsewhere, however, in aggregate there's been little meaningful progress. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With regards to underemployment, the the trend rate declined to 8.5 per cent in May 2017, which is a bit below peak of 8.7 per cent seen in 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, the underutilisation rate also declined by 0.4 per cent to 13.9 per cent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just about enough evidence here to suggest an ongoing improvement.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
</body></html>

Like Sydney before it, Melbourne is enjoying the fruits of its construction boom: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER </p>
<p><em>An explanation of why central banks can’t deal with simultaneous low unemployment and inflation.</em></p>
<p>The financial data this week were largely centred on inflation in Australia and China, and what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) thought about those things at their last board meeting.</p>
<p>This gives us the chance to focus on what is the most important issue in macroeconomics at the moment, and will govern the behaviour of the RBA, the US Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank in coming years.</p>
<p>A key question in thinking about how central banks should set interest rates is the relationship between economic output and inflation. Too much inflation is bad, as is too little, so policymakers want to balance stable inflation with as much output (GDP growth, employment, etc) as possible.</p>
<p>But how to do this?</p>
<p>A tantalising candidate answer to this was offered by New Zealand economist A.W.H. Phillips. Looking at data in the United Kingdom from 1861 to 1957, he noted that when unemployment was high, wages increased slowly; when unemployment was low, wages rose rather quickly.</p>
<p>If this were a stable, predictable, relationship, this would be great news for policymakers. Pick where you want to position yourself on the inflation-output tradeoff and <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/phillipscurve.asp" target="_blank">the Phillips Curve</a> tells you the answer.</p>
<p>Alas, it has long been know that this relationship is rather less clear than in Phillips’s data.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rationaltheoryofexpectations.asp" target="_blank">rational-expectations</a> revolution, ushered in by <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1995/lucas-bio" target="_blank">Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas</a>, showed that a relationship like the Phillips Curve would depend on what people thought policymakers were going to do. In other words, you can’t rely on historical data when making policy, if those policies affect the data (as they always do). This is known as the “Lucas Critique”. And it’s right.</p>
<p>The thing is that policymakers need to make decisions, now. And being “right” is all well and good, but being practical is pretty important, too.</p>
<p>So for a long time, policymakers fudged things by using what they called the “expectations-augmented Phillips Curve”. Basically a hack.</p>
<p>But now, even that has broken down. Neither the Fed nor the RBA can understand within any framework how it can be that both inflation and unemployment are so low. Take the US: 4.2% unemployment and 1.4% inflation. It should be, according to basic economic theory, that when workers are so scarce one has to pay them more to work, so inflation goes up.</p>
<p>But not according to the data. The big and important question is: why not?</p>
<p>The cheap answer is that we are not measuring things correctly. For example, there is a lot of “underemployment” so that 4.2% isn’t really right – these folks aren’t working all the hours they want.</p>
<p>There is probably some truth in that, but it’s hard to believe there has been a dramatic shift in the proportion of those underemployed in the last decade. Even if it is true, it still begs the question: why?</p>
<p>I think it’s safe to say that not only does nobody know for sure, nobody has a good conjecture. Or, to quote the celebrated US baseball player Yogi Berra when a high-school teacher asked him: “don’t you know anything?”, Berra replied “I don’t even suspect anything”.</p>
<p>A wild guess is that it’s not mismeasurement, but technology.</p>
<p>A lot of employment relationships are now determined through online matching. There are fewer intermediaries – including unions. That has diminished the bargaining power of most workers, limiting their ability to extract higher wages when labour-market conditions are tighter.</p>
<p>In addition to this, central banks like the Fed and the RBA have now established a strong reputation for being tough on inflation. That has taken time to take hold, so it is reasonable to think that if there was an expectations-augmented Phillips Curve it would have changed over time – perhaps getting to where we are now.</p>
<p>The real test, of course, will be if central banks abandon inflation targeting in favour of more output-focused policies. That might well be the right thing to do. But I, for one, would be surprised if the relationship between unemployment and inflation didn’t change as a result of that.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85824/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Or to put it a different way: Lucas was right.</p>
<p><em>Vital Signs is a weekly economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (@profholden). Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the data affecting global economies.</em></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-economics-cant-explain-why-unemployment-and-inflation-are-both-low-85824" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
</body></html>

rh-YsoTT2xMuQ

Economics can't explain why unemployment and inflation are both low: Richard Holden

<html><body>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/81099/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Many people assume Australia’s regions are getting a raw deal compared to the big cities. But beneath the oft-told “tale of two Australia's” is a more nuanced story.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s2">New research released today by the Grattan Institute</span><span class="s1"> shows that income growth and unemployment rates are not obviously worse in regional areas. Cities and regions both have pockets of disadvantage, as well as areas with healthy income growth and low unemployment.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But shifts in population are driving a wedge between city and regional Australia. Fewer people are living in remote areas. And because of this, the economy is becoming more concentrated in cities and large regional centres.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%209.16.25%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span class="s1">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%209.16.25%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Income growth was particularly high over the past decade in the mining areas of Western Australia and Queensland. But this is not just a mining-state phenomenon: average growth in income per person was similar in cities and regions across every state.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Income growth was high in areas close to the centre of Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide. But suburban parts of these cities did not fare so well – areas in Sydney’s west and Melbourne’s outer ring had some of the lowest income growth in the nation.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The absolute level of income tends to be higher in the cities than the regions - but this has always been so. The highest taxable incomes in Australia are in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, followed by Cottesloe in Perth and Stonnington in eastern Melbourne. The only regional area in the top 20 areas by taxable income is the mining region of Pilbara in WA.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The lowest taxable incomes are in Tasmania and the regions of the east-coast states, especially the far north coast of NSW, central Victoria and southern Queensland.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><strong>Where unemployment is worst</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Unemployment is not obviously worse in the regions than the cities, but both have areas of strong disadvantage.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Parts of Far North Queensland have the highest rates of unemployment: 40% or more, compared to the national average of 6.1% in 2016. Most of these areas have had high unemployment rates for many years.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Unemployment tends to be higher in large regional towns than in surrounding rural areas. In the capital cities, unemployment is concentrated along the “spines” - built-up areas that follow major roads.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Unemployment got worse over the last five years in many areas where the jobless rate was already high. The unemployment rate increased in the northern parts of WA, the Northern Territory and Queensland between 2011 and 2016. Unemployment appears to be entrenched in these areas.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Unemployment also got worse along city “spines”: the Ipswich to Carole Park corridor in Brisbane, and the Dandenong to Pakenham corridor in Melbourne. The exception was the Botany Bay to Liverpool corridor in Sydney, where unemployment improved but remains high.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><strong>Population growth is much stronger in the cities</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The regions are not noticeably falling behind in terms of income growth and employment. But there are big – and growing – differences in the location of economic activity and where people are choosing to live.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A long-term trend in Australia’s economy continued in the past decade: fewer people are working in agriculture and manufacturing, and more are finding jobs in services. The loss of agricultural and manufacturing work is felt most keenly in regional and outer-suburban areas. And many service jobs – particularly professional services – tend to cluster in the centre of cities.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Large regional towns exert a gravitational pull on the populations of smaller rural communities. Major cities have a stronger pull again, drawing younger and more-educated people from the regions as well as the majority of new migrants.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This is evident in the population data over the past decade: in general, populations declined in small towns in the east-coast states and South Australia, but increased in larger regional centres. Population – and unemployment – also tended to increase faster in the towns along the east coast. Populations in the major cities, meanwhile, grew strongly.</span></p>
<p class="p20"><span class="s12">Voters in regional areas are <span class="s2">increasingly voting for minor parties</span>. It’s often suggested this is because of the <span class="s2">deteriorating economic position of the regions</span>.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But given that people in regions have generally fared as well as those in cities over the past decade, major parties may need to look beyond income and employment to discover what is driving dissatisfaction among regional voters.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s2" style="font-size: 12.16px;"><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;"></a></strong></span></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank">John Daley</a><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870"> </a>is Chief Executive Officer, Grattan Institute.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s2" style="font-size: 12.16px;"><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;"></a></strong></span></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carmela-chivers-390957" target="_blank">Carmela Chivers </a>is Associate, Grattan Institute, Grattan Institute.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s2" style="font-size: 12.16px;"><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;"></a></strong></span></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danielle-wood-147710" target="_blank">Danielle Wood </a>is Fellow, Australian Perspectives, Grattan Institute.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s2" style="font-size: 12.16px;"><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;"></a></strong></span></p>
<p>All are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s2" style="font-size: 12.16px;"><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </a></strong></span></p>
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Australia’s city/country divide is not as wide as you may think

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The ABS released its Characteristics of Recent Migrants survey for November 2016 yesterday, a release which the statistician puts out every three years. </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The anti-immgration lobby will be trawling through the figures to see whether migrants were taking all our jobs (go home, we're full!) or not working enough (bludgers!), but in the end the three-year change in the figures wasn't all that remarkable.</div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>Most migrants are employed, including 82 percent of skilled migrants, while the unemployment rate for Australian born citizens at 5.4 per cent was comfortably lower than the national average.</div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The labour force participation rate for recent migrants and temporary residents remained high at 70 per cent, and 84 per cent reported that wages or a salary were the main source of household income. </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Recent migrants head to capitals</span></strong></div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The system is broadly working as it should, then, while the recent increase in permanent settlers is largely accounted for by an increased refugee intake from Iraq and Syria.  </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>One significant trend which stood out to me was the clear acceleration in recent migrants with their usual place of residence in one of the capital cities. </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>Migrants have always preferred the capital cities, of course, but at 88.3 percent the figure has clearly been accelerating higher over the past dozen years to now sit at incredibly high levels.  </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>Given that Australia's rate of immigration has also increased dramatically over the past dozen years this is potentially a hugely significant demographic trend.  </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>About 55 percent of Australia's population growth is presently accounted for by net overseas migration, while the other 45 percent relates to natural growth (being more births than deaths). </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The trend towards capital cities holds true across all visa classes, but particularly so for those arriving as international students, a means of entry which is set to the most consequential driver of demographic trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/14/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>Looking at the geographical figures it becomes clear that since the peak of the resources boom Western Australia is not attracting or retaining recent migrants as successfully as it once was, while the southern states have not been retaining as many migrants as they might wish to. </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>The slack has been instead picked up by Sydney, and to a lesser extent Melbourne.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/14/B2.jpg" alt=""></h3>
<div>Interestingly Sydney loses a chunk of its population each year interstate or to other parts of regional New South Wales, meaning that the residual population of Greater Sydney is heavily tilted towards overseas born residents. </div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div>Melbourne and Brisbane on the other hand are attracting migrants internally, and as a result absolute population growth is tracking at record highs in Greater Melbourne, and is picking up speed in Brisbane.</div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </em><a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2"><em>AllenWargent</em></span></a><em> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </em><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2"><em>blogger</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay"> </a></h3>
</body></html>

Migrants flocking to capital cities - and staying there too: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div id="post-body-1755958549475955952" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Couldn't think what to blog about today - creative juices aren't flowing at all, perhaps I need black coffee - so thought that for something different I'd take a look at Australia's oft-discussed government debt, and a few forecasts from the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM).<br><br>The unemployment rate in Australia has declined from 6.3 percent to 5.7 percent since the beginning of 2015, taking the trend unemployment rate to its lowest level in 34 months at 5.71 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/B3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>The supporting figures, however, show that we are absolutely miles away from full employment, with oodles of part time work and under-employment around. </div>
<br><div>Indeed, tomorrow's capex report will likely show that the collapse of business investment in the <strong>mining</strong> sector has spilled over adversely into associated parts of the services and manufacturing sectors (since some of these businesses naturally provided inputs into the resources investment boom - warehousing, transport, equipment manufacture, and so on).<br><br>In effect, via the unwinding of mining capex resources regions will be experiencing the multiplier effect of the mining investment boom in reverse, sucking some mining-dependent regions in Western Australia and Queensland into a gravitational black hole. I think this has already happened, in truth, the data will just confirm it.<br><br>Anyway, that's tomorrow's news, but one senses the outlook for capital expenditure won't be all that great, and the recovery in all likelihood has a long way to run.<br><br><a href="/images/2016/09/01/Lifecycle.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div>
<img src="/images/2016/09/01/Lifecycle.jpg" alt=""><br><br>(huge h/t to whichever internet wag created the above graphic - it gets me every time...too funny).<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Some Treasury forecasts...</span></strong><br><br>As new resources projects come online, Treasury expects the Australian economy to keep growing at a solid clip, in part driven by increasing export volumes, particularly of LNG.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Treasury has maintained its positive forecasts for real GDP growth over the next few years, with economic growth to be aided by household consumption and net exports as the export volumes increase.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, these forecasts somewhat optimistically assume that household consumption will continue to remain positive, with the terms of trade holding also up at a level above anything we saw prior to the start of the boom (rather questionable given the trend since 2012!). Coking coal prices are booming - up by more than 40 per cent in August - but the outlook for iron ore prices may be grim.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/TOT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/TOT.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>Tourism and education exports are also expected to be key contributors, a theme I've looked at quite a bit on this blog.<br><br><a href="/images/2016/09/01/Services.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><img src="/images/2016/09/01/Services.jpg" alt=""><br><br>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Government borrowing</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the government is making noises about trimming dollars and cents from its budget expenditure, behind the scenes the government is expected to keep borrowing hard, in part for infrastructure projects.<br><br>There are now $397 billion of Treasury bond securities across 23 lines on issue - a dozen of which have more at least A$20 billion outstanding - but look how low some of those coupon rates are...</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div class="separator">There are a further $30.6 billion of Treasury indexed bonds and $3.5 billion of Treasury notes, adding up to a total of <strong>$431.2 billion</strong> of government securities on issue. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Fortunately bond yields are so low that the government can borrow at around the lowest yields on record without adding unduly to the interest burden.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/RBA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/RBA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And government bonds on issue are expected to keep rising, with there having been strong inflows from Japan into Australia's debt securities over the last three years.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Gross issuance of Treasury Bonds is expected to be A$90 billion in 2016-17, up marginally from last year, with net issuance of $68.9 billion (and an additional $3 billion of net issuance in Treasury Notes).</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">That will take Australian government bonds on issue to well beyond 25 per cent of GDP (though Australia's net debt to GDP ratio is somewhat lower) - which is not really very high compared to other deficit countries - e.g. Japan, Canada, the United States, Greece, France, or the United Kingdom - but nevertheless moving in an unmistakeably northwards direction since the financial crisis took hold. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">How you feel about that really depends upon your position. Some argue that it's borrowing from the future. Others maintain that it makes a lot of sense to borrow for infrastructure projects when bond yields and coupon rates are so low, and while mining investment is still in freefall. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> </div>
</body></html>

Government debt and the capex black hole: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The April Labour Force report showed that labour market conditions remain okay, but momentum has slowed.</p>
<p>While labour market indicators remain mixed at the moment, we continue to expect the unemployment rate to remain close to the current 5.7 percent for the rest of the year.</p>
<p>Today’s numbers are unlikely to change the RBA’s view on the outlook; its focus has tilted more sharply towards inflation and we continue to expect another cut in the cash rate in August.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-19%20at%204.12.36%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-19%20at%204.12.36%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Today’s labour market report showed continued slowing momentum in jobs growth. Employment is now up just +0.1 percent 3m/3m compared with +0.9 percent three months ago. That said, the stability in the unemployment rate at 5.7 percent suggests that the labour market remains in good shape.</p>
<p>Some labour market indicators have been mixed lately. For example, ANZ job ads have been essentially flat for the last six months, and an unemployment rate based on welfare payments ticked higher in March. But indicators like capacity utilisation and profitability in the business surveys point to a solid labour market.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-19%20at%204.13.50%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-19%20at%204.13.50%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>However, a preliminary read on our Fed-style labour market conditions index, which distils the common trend across a large number of indicators, was unchanged in April. This indicates to us that the labour market remains solid after last year’s sharp improvement was unwound. </p>
<p>RBA implications: While the RBA’s focus has shifted to the inflation outlook, as is always the case developments in the labour market are important for monetary policy deliberations. We think today’s numbers are likely to be broadly as the Bank expected.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-19%20at%204.14.03%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-19%20at%204.14.03%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>That said, we continue to expect another 25bp rate cut in August given the sharp downgrade to its inflation forecast.</p>
<p> </p>
</body></html>

Modest Australian jobs gain with steady unemployment: ANZ's Felicity Emmett

<html><body>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>New findings from the Cost of Youth Homelessness in Australia research project, released on Thursday, show the rising costs of health and justice services associated with homelessness.</p>
<p>The homeless young people in the study reported significantly higher prevalence of adverse health issues than the general population, or even compared to other unemployed, job-seeking youth. This created an average additional cost, compared to the unemployed group, of A$6,744 per person per year.</p>
<p>Homelessness also means considerably greater contact with and involvement in the justice system. This was an average cost of $8,242 higher than for the unemployed group. The total cost offsets for young people becoming homeless is therefore an average of $14,986 per person per year.</p>
<p>On the basis of the 41,780 young people between aged 15 and 24 who were clients of Specialist Homelessness Services in 2014-15 and presented alone rather than in a family group, the total annual cost to the Australian economy of additional health and justice services is an estimated $747 million – or $626 million annually more than for unemployed youth.</p>
<p>This $747 million exceeds the total cost – approximately $619 million – of providing Specialist Homelessness Services to the 256,000 people (young and old) assisted by the system over the same period.</p>
<p><strong>Has ‘early intervention’ influenced policy?</strong></p>
<p>Early intervention to arrest the onset of youth homelessness is not a new idea.</p>
<p>Debate about early intervention started in the 1990s following several research projects that proffered evidence that it was possible:</p>
<p>• it was advocated in a parliamentary report on youth homelessness in 1995;<br> • it was examined by a government taskforce in 1996-97; and<br> • after a pilot program, the first early intervention program for at-risk and homeless young people, Reconnect, was launched.</p>
<p>But apart from Reconnect, little has been done to develop Australia’s early intervention capacity. This is despite “youth homelessness” having had a visible profile in the media and in public debate. This is undoubtedly in large part due to the 1989 Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission inquiry into youth homelessness.</p>
<p>Twenty-five years later, an independent National Youth Commission Inquiry into Youth Homelessness revisited the same issue in much the same way. It found the problem had not been substantially redressed.</p>
<p>In December 2008, a federal government white paper placed “early intervention” on the policy agenda as a means of “turning off the tap”. But little was done in six years of Labor governments.</p>
<p>And, despite a roundtable on prevention and early intervention convened in 2014 by then-social services minister Kevin Andrews, the Abbott and Turnbull governments have done nothing to give effect to the framework so positively received.</p>
<p>Specialist Homelessness Services assisted 250,000 men, women and children in 2013-14. Nearly one-third (30 percent) were single individuals. Another one-third were sole parents with children (33 percent). Just less than one-third were other families (29 percent). The balance consisted of “other groups” of non-related persons (7 percent).</p>
<p>In 2013-14, of the 76,200 individuals who were alone when they presented to services, 44,414 were young people aged 15-24 years – or nearly six out of every ten single clients.</p>
<p><strong>Widening the debate</strong></p>
<p>The debate about responding to homelessness has too often been confined to claims about increasing homelessness services or reforming homelessness services. The overall costs and benefits are not considered. The huge demand-driven costs associated with young people becoming homeless are not factored in.</p>
<p>Policies that respond to homelessness in ways that avoid these costs have to be more seriously considered. Our report’s findings provide a strong economic rationale for investing in early intervention to stem the flow of young people into homelessness.</p>
<p>And for those young people who become homeless despite early intervention – or who were already living independently prior to homelessness – the policy imperative is to support them to exit homelessness as quickly as possible.</p>
<p>For these young people, this involves setting them up in safe, secure and appropriate housing quickly – or rapid rehousing.</p>
<p>A rapid and agile response has proved difficult to deliver because it requires quick access to some form of appropriate youth housing.</p>
<p>The most important issue is wrap-around integrated support for young people to remain in education, training or employment as a way of replicating – as well as can be achieved – the all-inclusive support that families provide.</p>
<p>Waiting for early intervention and an adequate response to youth homelessness feels like “waiting for Godot”, as the two homeless men did in Samuel Beckett’s famous absurdist play. But, as the findings of our research show, the Australian community and economy are paying the substantial cost of the status quo.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/adam-steen-249616" rel="author">Adam Steen</a> is p</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rofessor in finance, Charles Sturt University and author for The Conversation. He can be </span>contacted<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/adam-steen-249616" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
</body></html>

Unemployment

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Unemployment

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News