Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/bottega-property-group">Bottega House</a> has secured council approval for its first Brisbane project - a $270 million luxury residential development on an absolute riverfront site in leafy St Lucia.&nbsp;

The 15-storey project, known as <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-lucia-by-bottega-house-180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">St Lucia by Bottega House</a> , will occupy a prime north-facing site at 178-180 Macquarie Street, directly fronting the Brisbane River in the established inner-west suburb known for its rowing clubs, golf courses and sprawling University of Queensland campus.&nbsp;

St Lucia by Bottega House will feature a suite of amenities including dedicated wellness spaces, a mineral pool and cold plunge. The project has been positioned to attract affluent owner-occupiers seeking high-quality, house-sized apartments.&nbsp;

Bottega House has been set up by co-directors Nick Malloch, Louis Mennes and Craig Marsh.

Malloch said the project drew inspiration from its Brisbane River setting and leafy inner-west surrounds, while responding to the demands of discerning locals looking to transition from freestanding homes into apartment living.&nbsp;

"With an expansive river frontage and lush green surrounds, we knew we had to create something special that reflects the natural beauty of the location while offering residents masterfully crafted homes," said Malloch.&nbsp;

"Our intent was to complement the project's quiet, private setting by introducing residences that offer a calm retreat and sanctuary from the everyday. The result is a harmonious blend of architecture, interiors and amenity that emphasises wellbeing, comfort and beauty without excess."&nbsp;

Malloch added that project consultants had been carefully selected in alignment with Bottega House's commitment to care, quality and attention to detail. The design team includes architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a>, interiors practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/urbis">Urbis</a>.&nbsp;

Three-bedroom apartments are expected to start around $5 millio. Selling agents Keenan &amp; Byrne said the pricing strategy for the project was anticipated to achieve upwards of $25,500 per square metre.&nbsp;

The project's development approval this week follows the success of Bottega House's inaugural Queensland project - a 22-storey collection of full-floor sky homes at Broadbeach on the Gold Coast which included the sale of a two-storey penthouse at a record price for a beachside residence.&nbsp;

St Lucia by Bottega House is expected to launch to market in November, with construction anticipated to be completed mid 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151826]

Joel Robinson

Bottega House to make Brisbane debut with St Lucia riverfront apartment development

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> is advancing its affordable apartment model into Brisbane with the acquisition of another site at Cordelia Street in South Brisbane for $27 million.

Sherpa, which has a $1.7 billion pipeline across Southeast Queensland, intends to bring a cohort of apartments exclusively for first homebuyers into its proposed 186-apartment project to be built at 2 Cordelia Street.

The Sherpa model has already been incredibly well received from their Gold Coast projects, where Sherpa Group set aside a number of apartments exclusively for first homebuyers.

The new $320 million project marks Sherpa Group's second development in Brisbane, following its $255 million Symphony project, also on Cordelia Street, which is currently under construction.

Symphony will deliver 146 apartments across 28 levels, offering a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments. With 114 already sold, construction by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/lps-group">LPS Group</a> is scheduled for completion in 2028.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=351654]

Sherpa Founder, Christie Leet, said the company was excited to be venturing into Brisbane for its second residential project.

“We’re big believers in the future of Brisbane as we lead into the 2032 Olympics and beyond,” Leet said.

“The success of Symphony has guided us into what will be our second project and we look forward to submitting our plans with council soon so we can deliver yet another quality project to the inner city residential market.

“Our Flourish model has been very well received both in Brisbane and the Gold Coast, and we’re excited to be able to offer some of these apartments again exclusively to first homebuyers to help get them into the property market.

“The model has been extraordinarily well received in our previous projects and it is something we are committed to moving forward.”

2 Cordelia Street will be designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hal-architects">HAL Architects</a> &amp; Finegrain and will include Sherpa’s signature residential amenities including pool, gym, recreation, wellness and work from home spaces.

The project will feature ground-floor commercial space, creating a vibrant amenity for residents and the surrounding community.

A development application will be lodged with Brisbane City Council in August on the code compliant site and will be launched to the market early 2027.

Sherpa acquires new site for second Brisbane apartment tower

One of North Sydney's best-known commercial buildings could become hundreds of new homes, with insurance giant Zurich Australia lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to transform 5 Blue Street into a mixed-use residential development above North Sydney Station.

Rather than demolishing the existing building and starting again, Zurich is proposing an adaptive reuse project that would convert the landmark office building into a 15-level residential development delivering 62 apartments, 86 affordable co-living dwellings, activated retail and significant upgrades to the Blue Street Plaza.

The proposal reflects a growing trend of commercial property owners repositioning ageing office assets into residential housing as Sydney grapples with housing supply shortages and changing workplace demand.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bba7d12-06dc-4375-aad7-238c94b21ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.42.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NJl5oLAEBDGuPmY3RnyliKODjMc8lvRh" />

Located directly above North Sydney Metro and train station, the 3,051 sqm site occupies one of the most strategically positioned parcels of land on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Designed by fjcstudio, the proposal seeks to retain and adapt much of the existing structure while creating a contemporary residential address that better connects with the public domain surrounding North Sydney Station.

The application proposes two basement levels, ground floor retail, affordable co-living accommodation across the podium levels, and apartments above, while preserving and enhancing the publicly accessible Blue Street Plaza.

Rather than pursuing maximum apartment numbers, Zurich has opted for a housing mix heavily weighted towards larger owner-occupier residences.

The proposal includes 62 build-to-sell apartments comprising 12 one-bedroom, 19 two-bedroom, 29 three-bedroom apartments and two premium penthouses. It also incorporates 86 affordable co-living dwellings, which would be managed in perpetuity by a Community Housing Provider.

That balance between traditional apartments and affordable housing reflects the NSW Government's push to increase housing diversity around major transport infrastructure.

The proposal has been lodged concurrently with a rezoning application, with Zurich arguing the site is ideally positioned to support additional housing given its immediate proximity to public transport, employment and services.

"The proposal aims to respond to the housing challenges facing Sydney through the delivery of diverse housing types in a highly accessible location," the design report by fjcstudio states. It also seeks to improve pedestrian amenity through upgrades to Blue Street Plaza while creating a high-performing residential building that responds to the surrounding context.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36082e15-c636-4481-bb68-5a5f6443fe39" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.41.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5P6VD.fvmqjQfIG3TWWMRXxQWiQBjeFB" />

Rather than replacing the commercial building, fjcstudio has developed a design that works with the existing structural framework above the rail corridor, an approach that significantly reduces demolition while allowing the site to be repositioned as a mixed-use residential precinct.

The existing structural constraints have informed much of the building's design, including its relationship with Blue Street and surrounding public spaces.

The building has been designed as a slender tower rising above a clearly defined podium, with vertically expressed façades intended to reduce the perceived bulk while reinforcing North Sydney's emerging skyline.

According to fjcstudio, the architectural language responds directly to the surrounding commercial towers while maintaining a finer grain expression more closely aligned with the neighbouring Lavender Bay streetscape.

The tower incorporates articulated façade elements, landscaped podium edges and recessed upper levels to soften its appearance and improve pedestrian amenity below.

A significant component of the proposal is the revitalisation of Blue Street Plaza.

The existing public space has long served as one of the primary pedestrian connections between North Sydney Station, Greenwood Plaza and Blue Street, yet its role is expected to become even more important following the opening of Sydney Metro.

Zurich's proposal seeks to strengthen that role by improving landscaping, introducing new retail frontages, enhancing pedestrian permeability and creating more active edges throughout the day and evening.

Ground floor retail would wrap the plaza, while separate residential and co-living entries have been designed to improve wayfinding without reducing street activation.

Landscape design has been integrated throughout the podium and public realm, softening what is currently one of the most heavily urbanised parts of North Sydney.

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fjcstudio has carefully oriented apartments towards Sydney Harbour and the CBD while using privacy blades and articulated façades to minimise overlooking between neighbouring buildings.

Large framed openings along the western elevation maximise harbour outlooks, while the eastern apartments have been angled towards the south-east to improve privacy from neighbouring development.

The project forms part of the continuing transformation of North Sydney from a predominantly commercial CBD into a genuine mixed-use city centre.

Since the completion of Victoria Cross Metro Station, developers have increasingly shifted their attention towards residential projects capable of leveraging the area's unparalleled transport connectivity.

&nbsp;

FiveX recently lodged plans for a 61-storey, 490-apartment tower that would become one of the tallest residential buildings in North Sydney if approved.

Aqualand continues to expand its Lower North Shore presence following the completion of AURA on Walker Street and its recent St Leonards and Roseville proposals.

Developers are also progressing projects throughout Walker Street, Miller Street and the Victoria Cross precinct as demand for well-located owner-occupier apartments continues to strengthen.

First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station

Busy developer Aqualand Prestige has formally taken the next step in its expansion across Sydney's Lower North Shore, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for its long-held Archer Street site in Chatswood.

The application covers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/51-55-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">51-55 Archer Street</a>, a 1,767 sqm amalgamated site on the eastern edge of the Chatswood CBD, where the developer is seeking approval for a 45-level mixed-use tower delivering 114 apartments, including a significant affordable housing component, alongside retail, commercial space and six basement levels of parking.

The SSDA marks the latest milestone for a project Aqualand has been quietly progressing over the past two years. The developer first secured the site for its Aqualand Prestige platform before undertaking an alternative design excellence process with PTW Architects, ultimately avoiding a formal design competition through the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The proposal has evolved considerably from Aqualand's original concept. The revised scheme has been designed around larger owner-occupier product, with an unusually high proportion of three and four-bedroom apartments, targeting the more affluent buyer profile, and downsizer, emerging across the North Shore.

<img alt="Archer St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0171204c-5811-41b5-9b09-2335d1b7c3d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%208.52.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6YTuxfq.puZo7k2wbfgemcO5K3QfXYGQ" />

The 114-apartment mix comprises six studios, 27 one-bedroom apartments, 18 two-bedroom apartments, 50 three-bedroom residences and 13 four-bedroom homes. A quarter of the building will be dedicated to affordable housing, well above the mandated 15 per cent&nbsp;

PTW has structured the building vertically, with affordable housing across levels one to six, premium apartments through levels seven to 31, duplex skyhomes on klevels 32 to 43, a penthouse on level 44, and a rooftop plant level above. Six basement levels will provide resident parking and servicing.

The tower is proposed to reach approximately 154 metres, placing it among a growing collection of residential high-rises transforming Chatswood's skyline.

Rather than competing purely on height, PTW says the design has been driven by creating a slimmer tower capable of delivering significantly larger apartments.

"The primary objective of this project was to create a distinctive building that stands out from the recently approved or built structures in the Chatswood area," the design report states, noting the structural efficiency allows greater investment into apartment quality and resident amenity.

Residents would have access to more than 450 sqm of communal open space including landscaped gardens, swimming pool, rooftop entertaining areas, fitness spaces, community gardens, children's play areas and barbecue facilities.

A major focus of the design has been the public domain.

The ground plane has been opened up through landscaped terraces inspired by Willoughby's sandstone ridges, with native planting, public seating, artwork, retail activation and a series of gathering spaces intended to soften what has traditionally been a hard commercial streetscape.

The landscape strategy references Blue Gum forests once common throughout the area, while incorporating Indigenous storytelling, public art and lighting installations to strengthen the connection to Country.

Chatswood has been one of Sydney's busiest apartment markets over the past 12 months, with a steady pipeline of both new project launches and fresh development applications.

Hyecorp recently launched Celine, a 122-apartment development just along Archer Street, while Changfa and Huirong Group are progressing The Anderson, an 84-apartment project on Anderson Street.

Develotek recently secured approval for a 101-apartment tower on Pacific Highway, while Tian An LFD received the green light for Hammond Greens, its apartment development on the edge of the Chatswood Bowling Club.

Commercial property developer FiveX is also making its move into the residential market. Last month it lodged plans for a 61-storey tower with 490 apartments, which, if approved, would become one of the tallest residential buildings in Chatswood.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-targets-chatswood-skyline-with-61-storey-tower-after-north-sydney-plans">First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans</a>

Aqualand is also expanding its development pipeline following the launch of its luxury residential brand, Aqualand Prestige. The developer has delivered a string of high-end apartment projects across Sydney's affluent suburbs over the past decade, most recently AURA by Aqualand on Walker Street in North Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292863]

It has since quietly assembled its next wave of projects.

Earlier this year Aqualand launched Boronia in Roseville, a boutique 111-apartment development on Larkin Street. The project is one of the first significant apartment developments to launch in the suburb ahead of what is expected to become one of Sydney's most active new housing precincts under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, which allow greater density around train stations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152095 project_image_fid=373685]

The developer has also lodged plans for a two-tower, 413-apartment development on Herbert Street in nearby St Leonards, further strengthening its presence across the Lower North Shore.

Beyond that, Aqualand remains behind the final stage of Barangaroo, where plans will deliver a five-hectare mixed-use precinct comprising new homes, retail, hospitality and community facilities, alongside a new Metro entrance and more than two hectares of public open space, completing the Barangaroo precinct.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/central-barangaroo-development-takes-big-step-with-concept-proposal-approval">Central Barangaroo development takes big step with concept proposal approval</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-aqualand-joins-st-leonards-apartment-party">First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party</a> 
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First look: Aqualand pushes ahead with Chatswood apartment tower as SSDA lodged for Archer Street

Mass timber is becoming an increasingly popular construction material in apartment developments, but Adelaide developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> is taking the approach a step further.

At its new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flowe-bowden-18-gibson-street-bowden-sa-5007">Flowe Bowden</a> development, the exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) structure isn't just about reducing the building's environmental footprint. It also forms the foundation of a broader wellness strategy, influencing everything from indoor air quality and natural materials to the way residents move through and experience the building.

The 115-apartment mixed-use development, designed by Melbourne-based architecture practice Fieldwork, will occupy a prominent island site opposite Bowden Village Reserve, combining one, two and three-bedroom apartments with retail and a dedicated wellness destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375528]

Wellness isn't confined to a gym or shared resident facility at Flowe. Instead, Fieldwork embedded the concept into the building itself.

The development has been split into two residential wings connected by a naturally ventilated central breezeway, replacing traditional enclosed corridors with open-air walkways that improve natural light, encourage cross ventilation and create more opportunities for neighbourly interaction.

"Rather than treating wellness as something that only happens on the ground floor, our response integrates it throughout the building, which led us to ask what it really means to design a healthy building," Fieldwork Director Quino Holland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375531]

The building's architecture also reflects Bowden's industrial heritage. The lower podium references the area's historic brick and sandstone buildings, while the upper levels transition to exposed CLT, allowing the timber structure to become a defining feature throughout the apartments and shared spaces.

The use of mass timber sits alongside a range of sustainability initiatives, including a fully electric, gas-free design, rooftop solar and a targeted 5 Star Green Star rating.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375524]

Inside the residences, the focus remains on natural, durable materials. Blackbutt engineered timber flooring, exposed CLT ceilings, porcelain surfaces and warm timber joinery create a calming interior palette, while low-VOC finishes and responsibly sourced materials have been selected to improve indoor air quality.

Kitchens have been designed as the centrepiece of each apartment, featuring porcelain island benchtops, timber-look cabinetry and brushed steel tapware, with layouts that maximise natural light and ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375530]

The more traditional interpretation of wellness comes in the form of Level Eleven, a two-storey wellness club spanning the ground floor, mezzanine and first floor.

The facility will include a gym, yoga and reformer Pilates studios, Finnish and infrared saunas, magnesium hot and cold plunge pools, and dedicated recovery spaces. Unlike many residential wellness facilities, Level Eleven will also operate commercially, allowing the broader Bowden community to access the venue while giving residents exclusive membership benefits.

The ground floor has also been designed around everyday living. A café overlooking Bowden Village Reserve will activate the street frontage, while a bike workshop with tool storage, co-working space and dog wash has been incorporated to support daily routines and encourage interaction between residents.

"Flowe brings together my two biggest passions, creating places and creating healthier lives," Otello founder Daniel Harris said.

"We wanted to create something Adelaide hasn't seen before, a genuinely healthy building, where the way you live is lifted without even trying."

Flowe is positioned directly opposite Bowden Village Reserve and within walking distance of Bowden Railway Station and the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, placing future residents just minutes from the Adelaide CBD while remaining connected to one of the city's most established urban renewal precincts.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152022]

Otello launches wellness-focused Flowe Bowden with Adelaide-first mass timber apartment design

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The accelerated drop in home loans has prompted UBS analysts to downgrade their peak-to-trough forecast of home prices from a fall of 10 per cent to now 14 per cent.
"We cut our peak-to-trough forecast of home prices from falling '10% or more if regulators don't ease', to dropping '14%, even assuming the RBA cuts' (with Sydney and Melbourne closer to 20%), UBS analysts George Tharenou, Carlos Cacho and Jim Xu said.
"This is double the -7% decline so far."
They said they expect the RBA to cut rates in November.
The change in forecast comes after home loan approvals and values dropped to GFC levels in December.
The December 2018 slump for home loans approved, which was -5.9% month on month, was the worst since decline the GFC. UBS had predicted a -3% decline.
The -19.8% year on year figure was the worst since the GFC.
"The accelerating fall in home loans shows tighter credit is playing out," the UBS report stated.
"Looking ahead, while the Royal Commission didn't make material changes, we downgrade out long-held forecast peak-to-trough drop in home loans from '20% with risk of 30%' to '25% with rising risk of 30%.'"
They said it would mean housing credit growth will likely slow to 2% year on year by 2020, with risk of flat.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/UBS.jpg" alt="">
Investor lending slid another 4.6% month on month to be 27.8% down year on year. 
Despite holding a 16% share of total loans, the highest since 2012, first home buyers retracted sharply, down 8% month on month and 12% year on year.
Owner occupiers also weakened, down 6.4% to be 16.2% down year on year.
 
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

UBS analysts change home price forecast after home loan drop

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Housing prices could fall 10 percent as banks crimp riskier lending and the ALP plans to limit negative gearing tax breaks, warns UBS.
The global financial services firm has suggested the number of home loans could drop 30 percent due to credit tightening.
They said the economy could be set for a record long house price downturn.
"We expect further credit tightening, and the RBA’s lack of willingness to cut rates this time, to see the longest house price downturn in decades," the bank advised.
UBS have suggested the risks are now "tilted to the downside", having previously predicted the value of home loans written could drop 20 percent and housing prices could fall 5 percent.
They now expect home loan falls of up to 30 per cent and price drops of up to 10 per cent.
“Positively, the economy and labour market remain solid for now,” UBS noted.
They said borrowing capacity could reduce by around $100,000 for many households with new comprehensive credit reporting rules from mid next year.
Credit card limits and other debts could be taken into account.
National dwelling price to income ratio is near a record high of about 6.5 times. It's around nine times in Sydney and eight in Melbourne. 
Researchers George Tharenou, Carlos Cacho and Jim Xu said the federal opposition’s plan to limit negative gearing tax concessions for future purchases to new housing and halve the capital gains tax concession to 25 per cent.
Moody's recently suggested more borrowers will fall behind on their home loans in 2019.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Housing prices could fall 10 percent warns UBS

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Imminent restrictions on lending to heavily indebted borrowers will accelerate a squeeze on borrowing, according to UBS analysts.
UBS has repeated its warning of a potential credit crunch in the Australian economy where house prices would likely fall over a prolonged period across a few years.
This is because the price of money [via record low interest rates] becomes less relevant compared with the supply of money [credit availability] or demand for money — that is through employment, income, population," UBS economist George Tharenou said.
This week he noted about 30% of outstanding mortgage debt was held by borrowers with debts more than six times their income, which meant the flow of total lending going to borrowers with debt-to-income levels of more than six times would previously have been greater than 30% of lending.
Westpac advised recently that the share of loans on the bank’s books with a debt-to-income ratio above six times was about 20%.
UBS suggested this could be well above the new limit required by APRA.
“We expect boards, shareholders and management teams to recommend ‘very high’ debt-to-income be a low 5 to 10% of new lending flow,” Tharenou said.
“The impact of even a generous limit of 20% would likely be a negative for lending growth and credit availability.”
It is the latest warning from the UBS analysts of a potential credit crunch in the wake of the early evidence presented to the royal commission into banking and financial services, 
“This means that the introduction of debt-to-income limits will likely make borrowing for the median home in Australia (let alone Sydney or Melbourne) even more challenging,” Tharenou told The Australian.
He said restricting the amount of credit going towards borrowers with lower incomes could drag house prices in Sydney and Melbourne lower, as loan sizes would no longer support high house prices.
“Even taking into account higher household income in Sydney and Melbourne along with a 20% deposit, on our estimates the median household in Sydney will only be able to afford an $800,000 property, still well below the median house price,” Tharenou said.
UBS's George Tharenou said the credit crunch scenario would clearly be unintended by regulators and policy makers.
A tightening of access to credit for heavily indebted borrowers would also crimp the ability for property investors to enter the market. About 20% of investors own two properties, and 10% own three or more. About half of all investment properties are owned by investors with multiple properties.
“Limits could well spell the end of widespread multiple property investing in Australia — at least for those investors who maintain an owner-occupier mortgage and geared investments,” Tharenou said.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

UBS see heavily indebted borrowers squeezed in pending credit crunch

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<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
The ailing food franchisor Retail Food Group may close more than 400 stores over the next three years, according to a report by UBS.
The investment bank slashed its earnings forecasts for Retail Food Group after factoring in shrinking sales from store closures.
UBS analyst Jordan Rogers believes RFG may need to close as many as 456 stores in Australia between 2018 and 2020, mainly in its bakery division, which includes Donut King, Michel's Patisseries and Brumby's Bakery, and its quick service restaurants divisions, which owns the Crust and Pizza Capers brands. 
This doesn't include about 200 outlets forecast to close in 2018, the Australian Financial Review article noted.
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Store closures in Australia would be partially offset by about 145 new stores and outlets overseas, taking total stores to 1984 by 2020. However, RFG is unlikely to reach its long term target for 3500 stores.
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RFG shares have fallen 44 per cent since Friday, when the franchise systems business announced plans to close between 160 and 200 outlets over the next 15 months.
UBS believes more closures will be necessary before RFG reaches a sustainable base.
​"We expect the closures to accelerate and go beyond those initially identified by RFG given the deterioration in underlying performance and pressure with the Michel's structure, in particular,"  Mr Rogers said.
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">"A successful repositioning of Michel's and deceleration of closures would be the most likely potential change to our view, but it is difficult to have confidence in this scenario after network sales fell 22 per cent in (the December-half)," he said,</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
"We now forecast about 460 net outlet closures over the next 2.5 years (36 per cent closure of current domestic portfolio partially offset by about 100 net openings in the international division) and have lowered margins in each division to account for an expected change in the value split between RFG and franchisees."
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Retail Food Group may close 456 stores: UBS

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Chinese property investors are choosing Bangkok over Sydney and London, according to UBS.
Chinese buyers of property abroad tend to fade or pick up depending on key factors, UBS head of global real estate Kim Wright said.
“What we have found is that Chinese buying of property abroad tends to be very price and currency-aware,” Wright told The Australian.
“Their focus on specific markets will fade or pick up, depending on their view of currency. Over the last two years we have seen Asian buying of Australian property, specifically Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, that’s been very strong. It looks like that has started to fade over the past six months.
“I think it’s the combination of factors. Prices have been very strong in Australia so there is now a discussion that the cycle has started to peak and there’s the tax changes that have come through along with the tax controls.”
Wright suggested the decline in demand for property in Australia among Chinese buyers was similar to a loss of interest in London property in late 2015 when buyers felt the market had peaked, while tax changes and tighter capital controls further put them off.
Wright told the recent UBS Greater China conference in Shanghai that their research suggested tighter capital controls were just one factor.
Half those said the controls had encouraged them to bring forward purchases while the other half said it would slow their buying.
</div>
<div>The UBS research also found that two thirds of property purchases were cash settled.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Wright suggested that Chinese property investors were now looking to Bangkok, Thailand, as a new market.</div>
<div>
"I am not sure if that's a function of the One Belt One Road initiative and people are seeing the infrastructure spend and the co-operation, but also the price point is pretty attractive."
</div>
<div>
The Shanghai conference addressed efforts by Chinese authorities to reduce private sector debt levels and put the economy on a sounder footing without severely impacting growth, or triggering a financial crisis.
"A Minksy moment will not come in China. The debt problem is not going to result in a sudden collapse," said UBS head of Asian economic research Wang Tao.
Dr Wang said data that showed that China's foreign exchange reserves had actually increased was a "pleasant surprise" particularly in the context of fears last year that sustained outflows would deplete reserves and weigh on the currency
</div>
<div>
She is forecasting slower economic growth of 6.4 per cent in 2018 and 6.3 per cent in 2019 compared with the 6.8 per cent achieved in 2017.
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Chinese cooling on Australia property sees cash heading to Thailand: UBS

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The Brisbane apartment market is seeing one in five foreign buyers fail to settle, according to investment bank UBS.
It comes as tighter capital controls are imposed in China.
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UBS said default rates for top east coast developers remained low in light of residential price growth being strong for many of the buyers who purchased off the plan two to three years ago.
These buyers had a strong incentive to settle.
But the research highlighted the Brisbane market as where foreign buyers were not necessarily in the money.
The Brisbane apartment market has been the subject of recent warnings from the Reserve Bank after strong supply concentrated in inner city areas.
“The Brisbane apartment market is overbuilt in our view [with] residential prices largely tracking sideways for the last two years,” UBS analysts led by Kim Wright wrote.
“Resale prices are 10 per cent or more below purchase price and bank valuations are frequently below the initial purchase price.
“Poor quality projects are under significant pressure and we understand one in five foreign buyers aren’t settling, citing tightened capital controls.”
Listed developers Mirvac and Lendlease only had a small exposure to Brisbane apartment completions, UBS said, but flagged continued focus on the issue.
“We will be watching the market closely and also to provide an understanding of how foreign buyers will react if prices in Sydney and Melbourne also softened.”
More broadly, UBS said most Chinese consumers around the world had been financing their global property purchasers with cash or mortgages from Chinese banks, reducing concerns about settlement risk.
About a third of buyers paid cash using their savings and nearly three in 10 paid cash with help from family and friends.
Of the one-third of buyers who borrowed, 85 per cent used a Chinese bank rather than a local bank.
The research comes from a survey of 3,060 Chinese consumers that found an increasing trend in mainland Chinese ownership of global residential property.
The survey found around 14 per cent of properties purchased by Chinese consumers were bought for investment and left vacant, a figure that had fallen over the past six months.
Another 26 per cent of properties were used by their owners only part of the time, perhaps for holidays, business or to visit family.
“As much as 40 per cent of the overseas property owned by mainland Chinese may not be fully utilised,” UBS said.
“This may have ramifications for the vibrancy of the surrounding retail space and amenity of the area.”
Roughly a quarter of the purchasers live in their property full-time, while more than 40 per cent bought investment properties and rented them out.
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Brisbane foreigner OTP apartment defaults at one in five: UBS

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Just months after UBS called the top of Australia’s property market, the investment bank has now declared the housing boom is “officially” over.
In the wake of the latest home price figures for October, its economists forecast a “persistent and sharp slowdown” unfolding in response to lending restrictions and out-of-cycle mortgage rate hikes.
The weakness in auction clearance rates, and the near flat month-on-month growth in prices in the last five months, "suggest the cooling may be happening a bit more quickly than even we expected.”
UBS expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the official cash rate on hold until the second half of 2018.
CoreLogic’s latest monthly read on home values found price growth was flat nationally during October and up just 6.6 per cent annually — the weakest pace of growth since 2016.
Values fell half a per cent in the nation’s biggest housing market, Sydney.
“This is broadly consistent with our housing deep dive ‘calling the top’, which forecast a moderation to 7% year-on-year by end-2017, before dropping further to 0-3% year-on-year in 2018,” UBS economists George Tharenou and Carlos Cacho said.
Now the duo have downgraded their growth forecasts for this year to just 5 percent.
“Australia’s world record housing boom is ‘officially’ over after a large ‘upswing’ of 6556% price growth in 55 years,” he says.
<div id="taboola-mid-article-stream-thumbnails" class=" trc_related_container trc_spotlight_widget">“After dwelling price growth was resilient at a booming 10% [plus annual] pace earlier this year, there is now a persistent and sharp slowdown unfolding."</div>
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UBS calls property boom over and lowers national price growth forecast from 7 to 5 percent

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<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
Australia's national house price growth is likely to be flat - or possibly in low single digits - for the several years, according to UBS.
The latest UBS report, 'Get rich or borrow trying', warns that even small changes to credit conditions, such as a drop in availability of investor-only loans which have been targeted by the bank regulator, will "materially impact" house price growth.
According to UBS households are much more sensitive to tightening financial conditions from higher mortgage rates and the lagged impact of macroprudential measures than many realise.
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">House price growth should moderate to around 7 per cent in 2017 and to between 0 per cent to 3 per cent in 2018, according to UBS economists George Tharenou and Carlos Cacho.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">But the “forever boom” is ending, UBS clients were told, according to The Australian.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="related-quotes section">"We would still characterise our outlook as a 'soft landing', given we still don't expect a sudden collapse in prices," they wrote in a report on Fairfax Media.</div>
"But it does seem likely that Australia faces a prolonged multi-year period of flat or low single digit nominal price growth." 
Signs of a slowdown in house price are fast-emerging. House prices in Sydney fell 0.1 per cent over September, the first fall since late 2015, on Corelogic figures and 1.9 per cent, on Domain figures.
Veteran analyst Louis Christopher is predicting sedate house price growth in Sydney of between 4 per cent to 8 per cent in 2018 if the cash rate and economy remains unchanged. 
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Australian property prices headed for "prolonged" flat period: UBS 

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A third of customers with interest-only home loans may not properly understand the product and could end up in stress once they start paying back the principal, according to investment bank UBS.
Typically, a borrower has to pay only the interest component of a loan when he takes out an interest-only loan for the first five years. After that, monthly payments go up as the borrower also starts paying back the principal.
The new analysis by UBS concluded that borrowers would be exposed to financial stress once their monthly payment jumps. 
The findings are based on a survey the bank conducted between July 7 and August 4 this year seeking responses from borrowers who took out a home loan within the previous 12 months.
UBS found only 23.9 per cent of 907 respondents had an interest-only loan, compared with economy-wide figures that show 35.3 per cent of loans are interest-only, Fairfax Media reported.
Lead analyst Jonathan Mott noted that he initially suspected the survey sample had an error, but now believed a "more plausible" reason was that interest-only customers did not properly understand their loan.
We are concerned that it is likely that approximately one third of borrowers who have taken out an interest-only mortgage have little understanding of the product or that their repayments will jump by between 30 and 60 per cent at the end of the interest-only period (depending on the residual term)," he was quoted by Fairfax Media as saying.
UBS quoted surveys by ME Bank to show many Australians have an apparent lack of financial literacy and understanding of home loan products, with 38 per cent admitting they had "no understanding of interest-only repayments".
He also cited a 2014 Standard &amp; Poor's report that said 64 per cent of Australian adults were financially literate, implying 36 per cent were not.
The survey follows another one by UBS which revealed that there were $500 billion of “liar loans”, meaning they were written based on inaccurate information provided by borrowers in their application.
UBS said that over 70 per cent of survey respondents that took out an interest-only loan said they were "under moderate to high levels of financial stress".
"While these loans are well secured, we believe many borrowers may face substantial stress as interest rates rise or when they revert to principal and interest," UBS wrote.
UBS pointed out that mortgage misselling and irresponsible lending could have contributed to the problem.
The survey also suggested that borrowers would cut their spending (50 per cent) or begin paying down principal (24 per cent), once the higher payments start.
It also noted that the moves by the banks to increase interest rates on interest-only mortgages provided a "substantial" boost to their margins.
Interest-only loan rates have increased by an average of 74 basis points for investors, to 6.26 per cent and 49 basis points for owner occupied borrowers over the last 12 months to 5.78 per cent.
It comes as banks have responded to regulators asking to restrict interest-only loans to 30 percent as the property sector is increasingly being seen as a risk to the economy.
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One in three interest-only borrowers don't understand their loans: UBS

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Investment bank UBS’s latest report saying ‘liar loans’ have reached $500 billion has met with strong opposition from a brokers body.
The Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA) said in a media release that UBS was being reckless with its analysis of so-called ‘liar loans’ because it is based on implied presumptions.
UBS said that its latest survey of over 900 mortgage applications originated over the last 12 months revealed that about one third of home loans contained information that was not accurate.
Meanwhile, Australian Securities and Investments Commission chairman Greg Medcraft has said that a broken mortgage broker remuneration model and loose lending could trigger a subprime mortgage crisis.
Medcraft irresponsible lending is facilitated because of the mortgage broker remuneration model which rewards brokers for securing larger loans for their clients.
Referring to the UBS report, FBAA executive director Peter White said the figure was based on interpretation of their own research and asked the data be justified.
“I want to see their data analysis,” said White. “We need to see the questions they asked participants and we need to know how much and under what conditions they were paid.”
“UBS must prove there is no steering of answers or influences to produce outcomes which are not factual or fair or commercially sound,” he added.
White also questioned the validity of the data, saying UBS is not a lender in the home loan space, so there “needs to be clear transparency of their supposed results”.
“This is not their data and not data from a bank/lender, so the question must be asked as to the accuracy and integrity of the research, which is fundamentally divorced of market broker and lender marketplace data.”
 
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