Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Sqm Research

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Vacancy rates edged higher across most capital cities in April but still reflect a tight rental markets across Australia, according to data released by SQM Research.
The number of national residential vacancies rose to 76,959 rental homes, giving an overall vacancy rate of 2.4 percent, up modestly from 2.3 percent in March 2017.
In Melbourne and Sydney, vacancy rates sat at 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, a slight retracement from March’s low levels.
Canberra edged off a five-year low with a rise from 0.8 percent to 1.0 percent, while the highest vacancy rate remained Perth with a jump to 4.9 percent. The vacancy rate only fell in Darwin to 3.4 percent while Hobart claimed the lowest rate at 0.6 percent.
“While the rise in vacancy rates may give tenants a slight reprieve, the trend is still up for asking rents in Sydney and Melbourne, to the point where they are unaffordable for many people,” commented Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research.
We are nowhere near to seeing any signs of an oversupply of units in either inner-city unit market,” Christopher said.
Asking rents
Despite a higher vacancy rate, asking rents edged higher in Melbourne over the month to May 12, up by 0.3 percent for units and 0.2 percent for houses, giving annual price rises of 4.7 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. 
In Canberra too, growth in asking rents is high, at an annual pace of 9.3 percent for houses and 6.0 percent for units.
Annually, asking rents for houses has moderated in Sydney to 2.9 percent for houses and 3.2 percent for units, with asking rents for houses down by 0.6 percent over the month.
However, the asking rent for a three-bedroom house in Sydney now sits at a lofty $743 while for units it sits at $521, an unaffordable level for many of the city’s inhabitants on lower incomes.
In contrast, Darwin asking rents continued to fall, down 3.4 percent for houses over the month, while unit rents were down 1.1 percent. Perth has again posted the largest yearly declines, with unit asking rents down 9.4 percent and house rents down 7.5 percent.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

National vacancy rates rise modestly in April

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GUEST OBSERVER
If you have been following my tweets and Facebook comments, you would have noticed that I have been very vocal about the new budgetary measures and, in particular, the new rules on plant and equipment depreciation. Up until yesterday, it was obvious that large sections of the media were not aware of the full ramifications of what had been announced in last week's Budget. Indeed, headlines last week claiming that “Negative gearing was left untouched” could not have been further from the truth. Ultimately, these headlines left me in a state of bemusement with sections of our media which is cause for a blog of its own.    That all changed yesterday, where through the hard work of Australian Financial Review reporter, Su-Lin Tan, the full ramifications of what had been announced came to the fore via this front page story: Negative Gearing - Scalpel will cool apartment demand - experts
The new depreciation measures are significant as they massively reduce the ability of property investors to make deductions on their investment property, thereby reducing their ability to negatively gear.  These were the very words used by the Treasurer:
“And from 1 July 2017, the Government will improve the integrity of negative gearing by disallowing deductions for travel expenses and, for properties bought after today, the Government will also limit plant and equipment depreciation deductions to only those expenses directly incurred by investors.
To give you an idea of the impact on investors, the mocked up depreciation schedules below clearly show what was normally claimed, with the columns circled in red showing what can no longer be claimed if these new measures are passed. Both schedules assume a circa $500,000 price tag on the properties. 
This first property assumes a newly built situation where a Division 43 allowance (depreciation on buildings) can still be claimed.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/17/v1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/17/v1.jpg" width="700" height="559">
The second example is of an older style property where a new renovation has been completed.  Both these depreciation schedules have been provided with thanks to Mike Mortlock from MCG Quantity Surveyors.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/17/v2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/17/v2.jpg" width="688" height="580">
In both instances, plant and equipment depreciation are a significant component of the total deductible depreciation on a residential property. Literally, many thousands of dollars can no longer be claimed. Just keep in mind as well that these new changes only apply on residential property. Commercial property depreciation is still fully deductible.
<div>
The effective result is that tens of thousands of properties that were cash flow positive properties after the depreciation benefit will no longer be cash flow positive, keeping in mind these affect property purchases after May 9, so there is grandfathering. In its simplest terms, also consider the following scenarios: Property A
I own a new unit that was just built. I can claim the significant plant and equipment depreciation that comes with newly built dwellings. However, if I sell to you that unit tomorrow, you can not claim the plant and equipment depreciation. 
At this stage, it is not clear regarding the plant and equipment depreciation  that If I own an off-the plan development that is not complete and I then flip it on to you (before completion) whether you can claim the depreciation or not. The Federal Government needs to clarify this situation. Property B
I just bought a newly constructed unit after May 9, 2017. Normally, I would be able to claim the plant and equipment depreciation, however, at this point it is unclear under the new Budget measures whether I can going forward. A strict reading of the new measures suggests I cannot as it was the developer who originally purchased the plant and equipment.
This has been the view of some quantity surveyors while others believe the Government doesn’t intend to be so punitive. Once again, we are waiting for clarification. Property C
I own an older style property on which I recently completed a renovation whereby I purchased $200,000 worth of plant and equipment. I then sell this property to you, today. You cannot depreciate any of the plant and equipment that I have spent money on during the renovation.  
No further clarification is required here. This is exactly how the Government wishes the new measures to apply. In my view, this new measure, combined with recent APRA initiatives, plus the potential for the banks to pass on the new bank levy, will very likely result in a drop in property investor demand. When that drop happens is uncertain. But it could start at any time given once these changes are passed by the Senate, there will be a retrospective impact back to the May 9, 2017. So those people who purchased an investment property last weekend will likely be impacted by these new measures.
As quantity surveyor Washington Brown stated in their blog earlier this week, these new measures might actually have some unintended negative consequences for affordability in that:
<ol>
<li>
Property investors may now feel the need to hang onto their existing properties to continue claiming depreciation because if they sell that property they won’t be able to get as many deductions on their next one.
</li>
<li>
Developers rely on high depreciation figures in the early years to show investors how affordable an investment property can be. If these depreciation allowances are taken away, they will struggle to get pre-sales which are required by banks to fund the deal.
</li>
</ol>
I am also concerned for investors in a new property as it is likely that any secondary buyer will demand a discount on a resale to take into account that lack of deductible depreciation, which is significantly large on new dwellings. It’s a similar issue we had with Labor’s policy on negative gearing during last year’s election. As it is, off-the-plan investors regularly experience price declines in new properties when selling in the first few years of the property's life. These new measures may aggravate this reality which could then have a negative impact upon the supply of new housing stock in the long term.  
What the Liberals have announced is a light version of this policy in a way this will be a good test to see what would happen to dwelling prices and home affordability and rents under a no-negative gearing scenario. Are these measures good for First Home Buyers?  In addressing the affordability question one must ask do these measures, plus others announced such as the additional superannuation contribution scheme, the additional CGT discount on ‘affordable’ properties, the tax break for senior empty-nesters to sell their homes, the additional land supply, create the incentive for first home buyers to come back into the market? Well maybe, maybe not. Regardless, developers will need more first home buyers to take up the slack that investors leave behind. Potentially, first home buyers could do just that, which is what we all want. But they kind of need to. And if they don’t, the rent rises that may well follow could just force them to. This brings us to the final unintended affect – the rental market. Note the recent trend in falling building approvals.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/17/v3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/17/v3.jpg" width="243" height="300">
We are nearing the peak in housing completions in this cycle which we believe will be early 2018. Yet vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne are still tight.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/17/v4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/17/v4.jpg" width="700" height="384">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/17/v4.jpg" target="_blank"></a><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/17/v5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/17/v5.jpg" width="700" height="377">
This is happening because our population growth rates have exploded in recent years. Melbourne is now expanding by 120,000 people each and every year. Sydney's population is rising by 90,000 people. The growth rates are above and beyond what was expected and is causing systemic strains on our two largest cities.  For more on this I strongly recommend you read the recent blog on population from Macro Business  
Remember, this time last year there was a real fear of a unit oversupply. Forget that now for Melbourne and Sydney. There is no oversupply. And, depending upon how first home buyers respond to the Budget, there could be significant under-supply later in 2018-2019 which may cause rents to skyrocket. 
After all, rents in Melbourne are already well above expectations this year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/17/v6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/17/v6.jpg" width="700" height="389">
<div>Our 2017 Housing Boom and Bust Forecasts</div>
<div>
 It was reported yesterday that SQM Research may be revising down its 2017 forecasts as a result of the changes. After careful consideration, our base case forecasts stay un-revised for now.   
</div>
<div>
However, we believe that the probabilities have substantially increased that a peak in the price growth rates of the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets will happen this current June quarter and that the September and December quarters will record slower growth rates. The possibility of a modest price fall in either the September or December quarter has also increased. Subsequently, we now believe the lower end of our base case forecast range is likely to be reality. And, depending upon how and when the banks respond, we may revise our price forecasts down. For now, they remain on track with no current slowdown occurring in the housing market.
</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Louis Christopher is a managing director of SQM Research. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.sqmresearch.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Budget depreciation change to slow the market: Louis Christopher

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Results released by SQM Research reveal national residential listings dropped 8.3 percent to 322,400 over the month of April 2017, as school holidays and Easter impacted the market.
The data reveals Sydney and Melbourne posted the biggest drop in listings, down 12.7 percent and 15.2 percent, respectively, with vendors waiting for higher prices before they sell.
Property listings fell in all capital cities over the month. In Hobart, listings dropped 10.6 percent, followed by Brisbane at 9.7 percent and Canberra, where stock levels fell by 8.9 percent.
Over the year, listings were also down in all capital cities, led by a steep drop of 23 percent in Melbourne, followed by Hobart with a 19.3 percent decrease over the year.
Sydney listings are down 8.7 percent over the year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/02/Graph-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Louis Christopher, the Managing Director of SQM Research, said the sharp fall in listings in Sydney and Melbourne reflects the fact that many property owners are hoping prices will rise further before selling.
“Home owners are looking for higher prices to be convinced to sell their properties.
This is causing many would-be vendors to stay side-lined, which is only perpetuating price increases.
Some vendors are reluctant to sell as they might not be able to buy back in,” he said.
“Listings also fell in April given the school holidays and Anzac Day held some vendors back.
March was a longer month than April, so we’ve also recorded a seasonal dip.
However, one should note the large year-on-year falls indicate the market may be tighter now for buyers compared to this time last year.
“Underlying property demand remains very strong in Sydney and Melbourne, with population growth rates high and interest rates still low.
Combined with strong local economies, these factors are working together to drive property prices higher.
“Contrary to recent reports of a slowdown taking place, I see no signs of a slowdown in either Sydney or Melbourne.
Canberra property prices have also picked up, which we expect to continue through the second half of this year,” Christopher said.
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Property listings tumble in April as house prices increases in cities: SQM

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Vacancy rates dropped across all Australian capital cities in March, falling to just 1.5% in Melbourne and 1.7% in Sydney, with upward pressure likely to be maintained on rents in the two cities, according to the latest data from SQM Research.
Overall, the national vacancy rate fell to 2.3% in March from 2.4% the previous month, based on 73,554 vacancies. 
The numbers reflect a seasonal tightening in vacancy rates. Vacancies usually drop in the early months of the year as people return to their jobs after the summer break and students go back to universities in March, according to SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher.
Among the capital cities, Hobart’s vacancy rate was the lowest at just 0.6% while Canberra had the tightest vacancy rate of 0.8%, down from 0.9% in February. In Adelaide it was 1.8%, down from 2%.
Vacancies dropped in Perth and Darwin, as well as Hobart and Brisbane, which has the most listings at 11,028 of any of the capitals.
Christopher pointed out that the vacancy rate continued to fall in Melbourne despite much talk of an apartment oversupply. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/SQM-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/SQM-2.jpg" alt="">
“Even in the spots where we would have expected to see oversupply, such as Docklands and Southbank, we are not seeing it, where there are thousands of apartments, new and old,” he said.
Reflecting its lower vacancy rate, asking rents rose in Melbourne over the month to April 12, up by 1.6% for units and 0.7% for houses. 
Annually, asking rents for houses is growing fastest in Melbourne at 7.1%, reflecting tightening vacancy rates.
Sydney unit rents too jumped by 1.6% over the month, as well as a 1.5% rise for Canberra units, though housing rents fell in those two cities.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/SQM.jpg" target="_blank">In Sydney too, despite high levels of inner-city apartment construction, the vacancy rate is just 1.7% across the city and just 1.3% in the CBD. </a>
“We may, however, see a bounce in April across cities as demand for rental properties drops back,” Christopher said.
Perth recorded the highest vacancy rate at 4.7%, down marginally from 4.8% in February, followed by Darwin at 3.5%, a drop from 3.8%.
In Brisbane, the vacancy rate dipped slightly to 3.2%, and in Adelaide it fell to 1.8%. 
Darwin asking rents continued to fall, down 2.6% for houses over the month, while unit rents were down 1.1%.
Perth has again posted the largest yearly declines, with unit asking rents down 9.6% and house rents down 7.3%.
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Vacancy rates tumble across capital cities as Brisbane takes top spot: SQM Research

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Figures released by SQM Research reveal national residential listings increased 4.4 percent to 351,509 over the month of March 2017.
The data reveals Sydney and Melbourne posted the biggest monthly rises in listings, up 11.0 percent and 9.1 percent, respectively, as vendors seek to take advantage of big price gains in those two cities.
In all other cities, listings rose over the month.
In Brisbane, listings were up a healthy 6 percent, and in Perth they rose 4.9 percent, followed by Canberra, where stock levels rose 4.8 percent.
Over the year, listings were up in most capital cities, led by gains of 12.6 percent in Perth, followed by Canberra and Sydney, where stock levels were up by almost 12 percent from a year earlier.
Louis Christopher, the Managing Director of SQM Research, said the big rise in listings in Sydney and Melbourne reflects the fact that many property owners are attempting to cash in on rapid price growth in recent times.
“House asking prices are still rising quickly in the nation’s two biggest cities," he said.
"Despite new measures by Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to restrict interest-only mortgage lending, these measures are weak in the face of the strong price momentum in Sydney and Melbourne, fed by low interest rates and robust population growth."
SQM Research is predicting Sydney prices will rise between 11 percent and 16 percent in 2017, while Melbourne gains will be between 10 percent to 15 percent.
While those forecasts were made in November 2016, they had taken into account a potential tightening by APRA.
“APRA's move is not aggressive enough for SQM to revise its predictions. We still expect strong price growth,” he said.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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APRA has asked banks to limit interest-only mortgage lending to 30 percent of all home loans written.
As part of this, the regulator has demanded banks strictly limit the volume of interest-only lending at loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) above 80 percent and also ensure there is strong scrutiny and justification of any instances of interest-only lending at LVRs above 90 percent.
“However, these measures are weak and are not going to be enough to slow down the Sydney and Melbourne housing booms, where both owner occupiers and investors are feeding demand,” Mr Christopher said. SQM Research data for house asking prices over the three months to April 4 shows that asking house prices grew the most in Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart, with prices up 7.2 percent, 6.8 percent and 6.4 percent respectively.
In Sydney, asking house prices rose 4.5 percent.
That compares to a 2 percent rise in Adelaide, 1.1 percent rise in Brisbane and a fall of 2.4 percent in Darwin and 2.2 percent in Perth.
 
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APRA's move won't stop 2017 price growth says SQM as listing, prices rise in March

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Brisbane vacancies are on the rise, according to SQM’s latest report.
Over the past 5 years, the sunshine states capital has experienced a surge in residential apartment constructions; fuelled predominantly by the mining sector as well as a slight pick-up in foreign tourism numbers, however, with the rapid decline of the mining and commodities industries, is tourism enough to solely drive the economy?
SQM Research recently delved into the supply and demand situation for Brisbane in its Housing Boom &amp; Bust Report and the results were interesting.
Circa 9,000 new apartments hit the market in 2016 which was up 200% from 2015.
The report forecast completions to soften by about 11% during 2017 with circa 8,000 apartments to be built before increasing by 12.5% in 2018 for an additional 9,000 completions.
Having realised that an oversupply may be looming if not already in place, it appears that some developers that can afford to delay construction have done so, opting to ride out the storm so to speak; this would obviously decrease our number of original forecast completions.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), population growth for Brisbane increased by 1.72% in 2015 to arrive at an estimated total population of 2,084,850 people.
During 2006 &amp; 2011, the ABS Census recorded an average of 2.7 people per household.
If we adopt that rate for our forecast population growth of circa 36,000 for 2017, it would mean that a demand of around 13,000 dwellings would be necessary, however, the total forecast completions by SQM Research for Greater Brisbane (apartments as well as house &amp; land) may be in the vicinity of 21,000, meaning that an oversupply of 8,000 new properties could be possible.
Adopting the same methodology as 2017 as well as the same person per household rate of 2.7, we can assume that Greater Brisbane may be oversupplied by circa 9,000 new dwellings in 2018 due to a required demand of circa 14,000 dwellings and a forecast supply of 23,000.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/14/SQM-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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An oversupply of dwellings is the obvious catalyst in contributing to vacancies.
At present, the vacancy rate for Brisbane is 3.32%, up 0.67% in the last 12 months, 0.93% over 2 years, 1.43% higher than 5 years ago, and having increased by 1.89% over the past 10 years.
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When compared to the rest of the nation’s capitals, Brisbane has the third highest vacancy rate behind Perth’s whopping 4.7% and Darwin at 3.7%.
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Even though vacancies in Brisbane have increased, it’s selling point remains affordability, especially in a time when the great Australian dream of home ownership is becoming further unobtainable in Sydney and Melbourne.
At present, Brisbane’s median house asking price is $601,430, 114% cheaper than Sydney and 34% lower than Melbourne.
Gross yield numbers for properties that are tenanted aren’t too shabby either.
For those on the hunt for a deal, perhaps consider Brisbane towards 2018 as prices may likely soften.
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Brisbane vacancies continues to increase: SQM

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A number of mining towns are recording ongoing falls in vacancies, signalling that the housing bust in the mining towns is possibly coming to an end, according to SQM Research’s latest newsletter.
Residential vacancies in Karratha, Port Hedland, Mackay and Gladstone are all down compared to his time last year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-24%20at%2010.32.12%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-24%20at%2010.32.12%20AM.png" alt="">
Reflecting its high vacancy rate, Darwin continues to record big falls in asking rents, with units falling by another 2.5 percent for the month of January (houses down 0.1 percent).
Perth continues to record the largest yearly declines.
However, rents did rise slightly for the month at 1.1 percent for houses and 0.5 percent for units.
Meanwhile, Hobart is the strongest rental market in the nation with rents up by 6.7 percent for houses in January and 11.6 percent for units.
As noted, Hobart also has the lowest vacancy rate of all capital cities at just 0.7 percent.
Brisbane remains a flat rental market with falls in rents being recorded for units in the inner ring of between 2.5 percent to 5 percent declines, against the background of a relatively high vacancy rate of 3.3 percent.
Overall, rents continue to rise at about 2 percent per annum nationwide with some variability reflecting the mixed Australian housing market. 
So far, the feared oversupply for Sydney and Melbourne has not yet eventuated and we are aware of some scaling back of developments, particularly in the Melbourne rental market.
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Mining towns continue to have high vacancies and falling rents: SQM

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Residential vacancies fell nationally in January for a national vacancy rate of 2.4 percent, down from December's 2.8 percent according to SQM Research.
According to SQM Research all capital cities recorded falls in January.
Louis Christopher, SQM research managing director said Sydney's vacancy rate fell to 2.0 percent from 2.4 percent in December, while Melbourne's vacancy rate fell to 2.0 percent from 2.5 percent, which could pressure rents higher in both cities.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/22/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-22%20at%2011.16.38%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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"Perth continues to record the highest vacancy rates for any capital city at 4.8 percent and asking rents are still falling there," he said.
"Hobart now has the lowest vacancy rate of just 0.7 percent, reflecting very tight rental conditions which are also been experienced in other parts of Tasmania (Launceston is at 1.6 percent).
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Vacancy rates fall while rent rises: SQM Research

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The total land value for the Hunter region has increased over the 12 month period to 1 July 2016 by 8.7 percent from $118.57 billion to $128.84 billion.
However, decreases were experienced in land values in and around the Hunter coalfields due to the downturn in the coal mining industry.
Muswellbrook (-5.3 percent), Singleton (-2.9 percent), and Upper Hunter (-3.1 percent) LGAs all experienced decreases.
Residential properties experienced the largest increase in land values with an overall increase of 9.8 percent.
Residential land in coastal areas such as Newcastle (13.2 percent), Wyong (12.7 percent), and Gosford (10.2 percent) LGAs saw strong increases.
These areas have experienced strong demand, and infrastructure projects like the upgrade of the Central Coast Highway and Hunter Expressway are continuing to have a positive influence on land values.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-31%20at%202.50.43%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Commercial land values in the Hunter region increased moderately by 6.6 percent.
Renewed interest in mixed use sites allowing high rise residential development had a positive influence on commercial land values in Newcastle (14.3 percent), with strong increases also experienced in Lake Macquarie (13.0 percent).
Industrial land values across the region increased slightly by 3.5 percent.
The strongest increase was experienced in the former Wyong LGA (8.7 percent), with the largest decrease in Singleton (-11.3 percent).
Rural land values for the region increased slightly by 3.1 percent.
Moderate increases were experienced in larger broad acre holdings.
Lake Macquarie showed a strong increase of 10.7 percent, influenced by high demand for hobby farms and rural home sites.
For more information including interactive online land value summaries for all LGAs and 14 regions covering the state go to <a href="https://www.valuergeneral.nsw.gov.au" target="_blank">www.valuergeneral.nsw.gov.au</a>
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Muswellbrook leads declines in land values in Hunter region

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The current housing boom won't come unstuck until 2018, according to SQM Research founder Louis Christopher.
He was described by the Australian Financial Review as "arguably the country's most accurate forecaster."
"It is now very likely it will be a strong start to the new year for Sydney and Melbourne, given the way 2016 ended," Mr Christopher said.
He listed four reasons for the likely coninued growth as the continued low interest rate environment, strong Sydney and Melbourne economies, continued strong population growth and the supply side of the housing market.
The SQM forecaster expects capital city house prices to rise between six and 10 per cent this year, led by double-digit price growth in Sydney, Melbourne and possibly Hobart.
There will be single-digit growth in the other capital cities, apart from Perth and Darwin where he anticipates continued further falls.
Christopher believes both Sydney and Melbourne's housing markets will be "dangerously overheated and overvalued" by 2018.
"The market will sustain its current momentum and rise again in 2017 – 2018 may be well another matter."
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<div>Over the past two years, his predictions on capital city house price growth have been roughly in line with the Australian Bureau of Statistics's Residential Property Price Index.</div>
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Mr Christopher believes a number of key macro factors will continue to push up prices this year.
These, he said, include the current low interest rate environment, continued strong population growth especially in Sydney and Melbourne and – until very recently – a weak response to the supply side of the housing market.
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"We're getting around 90,000 new people coming to both Sydney and Melbourne every year.
"The Sydney and Melbourne economies have kept the country out of recession and there's a strong correlation between a city's economy and their housing market," Mr Christopher said.
His forecasts for 2017 are under a base case scenario of a steady economy, no changes to the cash rate, the Australian dollar hovering between 70¢ and 80¢ and no meddling in bank lending by the Australian Prudential Authority in the first six months of the year.
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Christopher says if the Reserve Bank cuts the cash rate this year, then house price growth could be even greater. 
SQM Research's Housing Boom and Bust Report, released in October 2015, forecast Australian dwelling prices to rise at between 3 and 8 per cent in 2016.
SQM forecast Sydney dwelling prices to rise by 4 to 9 per cent during 2016.
In Melbourne SQM's prediction of price growth was of 8 to 13 per cent.
Christopher acknowledges it was overly bullish on Brisbane, predicting growth of 5 to 8 per cent and was a bit too bearish on Canberra (2 to 4 per cent) but was quite accurate on its outlooks for Hobart (4 to 7 per cent) and Adelaide (2 to 5 per cent)
"It seems we did get most cities right and made the right call that Melbourne would be the out performer," Mr Christopher told the Australian Financial Review. "We copped a fair bit of stick over that one, particularly from the Macrobusiness guys who thought Melbourne would fall."
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