<p>New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.</p>

<p>It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.</p>

<p>With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.</p>

<p>The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.</p>

<p>Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]</p>

<p>Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.</p>

<p>"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.</p>

<p>"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.</p>

<p>Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.</p>

<p>That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]</p>

<p>Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.</p>

<p>Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.</p>

<p>"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.</p>

<p>"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."</p>

<p>Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.</p>

<p>"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]</p>

<p>The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.</p>

<p>Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.</p>

<p>That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.</p>

<p>"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]</p>


Joel Robinson

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

<p>A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.</p>

<p>The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.</p>

<p>The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.</p>

<p>The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.</p>

<p>Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.</p>

<p>"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.</p>

<p>"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."</p>

<p><img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" /></p>

<p>Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.</p>

<p>Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.</p>

<p>"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.</p>

<p>"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.</p>

<p>Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.</p>


Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

<p data-end="315" data-start="85">The long-planned transformation of Brisbane's historic Shafston Estate has taken another major step, with Capella Hotel Group announced as the luxury hospitality partner behind what will become Brisbane's first branded residences.</p>

<p data-end="499" data-start="317">The project, to be known as <strong data-end="376" data-start="345">Capella Residences Brisbane</strong>, is being delivered by Verso Projects at the landmark Kangaroo Point riverfront estate, with completion targeted for 2029.</p>

<p data-end="899" data-start="501">The announcement follows a series of planning changes to the project over recent years. The site was originally approved in 2023 for a 15-level, 37-apartment development designed by Rothelowman for Burgundy Group before Verso Projects took over the 10,070 sqm riverfront holding and lodged revised plans with Kerry Hill Architects to increase the development to a 25-level tower with 51 apartments.</p>

<p data-end="1154" data-start="901">The latest announcement confirms Capella Hotel Group will bring its branded residential offering to the project, marking just the second Capella Residences development globally after Seoul, and the group's first branded residential project in Australia.</p>

<p data-end="1387" data-start="1156">The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-castlebar-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Castlebar Street development</a> will centre around the restoration of the heritage-listed Shafston House, one of Brisbane's oldest residences, originally constructed in 1851 by Reverend Robert Creyke as a single-storey cottage known as Ravenscott.</p>

<p data-end="1387" data-start="1156"><img alt="Capella" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b9f4ce5-638f-4d6b-8082-3ca7e4b75fca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-09%20at%207.20.41%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=f7aeqsW_DzOJI4FymWb3lD8NptSfsP7q" /></p>

<p data-end="1611" data-start="1389">Capella said the project aligns with its focus on heritage-led developments, with the Brisbane estate combining the restored historic residence with a new luxury apartment tower and hospitality-inspired resident amenities.</p>

<p data-end="1823" data-start="1613">Residents will have access to the Capella Living Room, a concierge-led communal space inspired by the group's luxury hotels, alongside landscaped gardens, six swimming pools, wellness and recreation facilities.</p>

<p data-end="2042" data-start="1825">The broader estate will also include two riverfront homes, a six-berth private marina, porte cochère arrival experience, secure basement parking and a new section of public riverwalk along the Brisbane River frontage.</p>

<p data-end="2177" data-start="2044">The heritage Postal Depot Building will also be retained and repurposed as a guest house, in line with the revised development plans.</p>

<p data-end="2420" data-start="2179">The project represents another evolution for the site, which Kerry Hill Architects previously described as a rare opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's most significant heritage estates while creating a new benchmark for apartment living.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2422">"The Shafston Estate provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's finest heritage precincts and to reinstate residential use as a unique site perched on the edge of Kangaroo Point," Kerry Hill Architects said in its Urban Context Report accompanying the planning submission.</p>

<p data-end="2858" data-start="2726">"The project will celebrate excellence in sub-tropical residential design, setting a new benchmark for vertical living in Brisbane."</p>

<p data-end="3130" data-start="2860">Verso Projects, which now has an $8.5 billion development pipeline spanning more than 6,000 dwellings across apartments, townhouses, retail and commercial projects, said the partnership with Capella would elevate the development beyond a traditional residential project.</p>

<p data-end="3415" data-start="3132">"We feel honoured to be restoring Shafston Estate to its former glory, elevating it to new heights of luxury and excellence underpinned by Capella's distinctive service ethos and design philosophy, and making it a standout landmark in Brisbane," Verso Projects CEO Steve Laffey said.</p>

<p data-end="3658" data-start="3417">"By partnering with Capella, globally recognised for its refined approach to luxury hospitality and deep respect for cultural and historical context, we will elevate this project beyond a residential offering into a world-class destination."</p>

<p data-end="3820" data-start="3660">Capella Hotel Group President Roland Fasel said Brisbane's emergence as a global city made it the right location for the company's Australian residential debut.</p>

<p data-end="3961" data-start="3822">"Brisbane is a city on the cusp of something remarkable, and Capella Residences is our commitment to being part of that story," Fasel said.</p>

<p data-end="4083" data-start="3963">"The Capella residential experience is more than luxury. It is about a sense of belonging to a place with deep meaning."</p>

<p data-end="4227" data-start="4085">Private appointments have now opened for the project, with a display suite expected to open in late 2026 ahead of the planned 2029 completion.</p>


Capella to launch Brisbane's first branded residences at Shafston House, Kangaroo Point

<p>Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.</p>

<p>The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.</p>

<p><img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" /></p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.</p>

<p>"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.</p>

<p>"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.</p>

<p>"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."</p>

<p><img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" /></p>

<p>Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.</p>

<p>The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.</p>

<p>"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.</p>

<p>"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."</p>

<p>Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.</p>

<p>"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.</p>

<p>"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."</p>

<p>Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]</p>


Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

<p>Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a></p>

<p>The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.</p>

<p>The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.</p>

<p>The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]</p>

<p>Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.</p>

<p>"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.</p>

<p>"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."</p>

<p>Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.</p>

<p>"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.</p>

<p>"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]</p>

<p>Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.</p>

<p>"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.</p>

<p>"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.</p>

<p>"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."</p>

<p>The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.</p>


KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

Residential Market

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<p>I’ve always liked the saying “It isn’t difficult to make a mountain out of a molehill – just add dirt.”</p>
<p>The focus on clearance rates by some commentators is plain ridiculous especially when they insert the word “Sydney” into the clearance rate debate.</p>
<p>As we all know Sydney is made up of some 700 suburbs – where some are still performing above expectations and some are caught in a downward spiral. This is not an historic first as we have seen this pattern on many occasions previously with the areas of western Sydney, north – west Sydney, Canterbury Bankstown and surrounding areas the hardest hit.</p>
<p>These areas coincidentally have been the engine room for the Sydney property boom so they were always going to break – down. This is not a collapse rather a correction.</p>
<p>If you take the areas within a 5 to 10 kilometre radius of the Sydney CBD they are still performing with gusto<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank">.</a> Although it should also be noted that quite a few properties are withdrawn from public auction which go unreported. Properties that are passed in and sold an hour or two later are reported as sold – at – auction.</p>
<p>When I do a Domain search for properties in Greater Sydney that are on the market I see all up there are presently 12,922 properties, which isn’t a lot on the grand scale of things. The estimated Sydney population in 2015 is 4,840,000. What is interesting is that approximately one – third of these properties would be set down for public auction. So why the focus on clearance rates?</p>
<p>What I find even more interesting is why all the properties are bundled together? Well that’s easy to explain as most of the commentators are connected to some media organisations in some shape or form. If they were to list areas where clearance rates are identifying a nose – dive then nobody would advertise in those local newspapers, so it’s commentary by self-preservation.</p>
<p>Yes the call for concern is well justified with Sydney posting an annual growth of 12.8% and Melbourne even higher at 15.6%. To put this into some sort of perspective Auckland is presently running away at 27% annual capital growth – which is scary.</p>
<p>There are two game – breakers in property markets; interest rates and unemployment. The Australian Bureau of Statistics have just released its labour force survey for October which recorded that the seasonally – adjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.9%, down 0.3 points from September. We live in a funny society where some sections were desperately hoping that the unemployment figure would rise.</p>
<p>Now the interest rate scenario is even more interesting as we need to take into account that the Sydney property market has experienced a massive change to its normal landscape. We need to factor in the new significant buyer – investors. They have been driving the markets to levels never seen before, so we need to pay particular attention to yields.</p>
<p>Sydney 12 months ago was recording 3.7 per cent, today it has dropped back to 3.3%. Melbourne 12 months ago was 3.3%, today it is 3.0%. Brisbane 12 months ago was 4.5%, today it’s 4.4%. Adelaide has seen no change and sits at 4.2% and Perth has gone from 4.1% to 4.0%. (Source: Core Logic RP Data)</p>
<p>From these figures the two biggest investor markets, Sydney and Melbourne, are not surprisingly recording the highest downward corrections. Yields in 2016 will command special interest especially in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets. The cash rate debate is anyone’s guess where if the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to cut the cash rate there are absolutely no guarantees that the banks will pass that cut on after their last decision to increase interest rates.</p>
<p>Yes I have no doubt that we will see some interesting corrections in 2016 where I predict the areas that have experienced massive infrastructure expenditure to suffer the most. This is not anything new as it’s happened plenty of times previously, although some areas of Sydney have not seen any infrastructure expenditure in over fifty years. Take the northern beaches for example where their last significant expenditure was that dumb Spit Bridge in 1959.</p>
<p>If one was to sit back and collate all the stamp duty paid from Palm Beach to Seaforth over the last 56 years you would come up with a near nil return for infrastructure expenditure. Still the state government insists on thousands and thousands more high density housing developments with no proposals to build new transport plans aside from double – decker buses.</p>
<p>Maybe stamp duty rates should be determined by infrastructure expenditure within a particular region?</p>
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 114</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 75</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 74</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 76</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 60</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 61</p>
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 13</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 12</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 13</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 36</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 17</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 16</p>
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 6</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 34</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30</p>
<p>*Number of apartments on the market this week – 36</p>
<p> </p>
<p><span> </span><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
</body></html>

robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Why clearance rates aren’t clear: Robert Simeon

<html><body>
<div>At the headline level it was another spirited month for housing finance nationally, with the seasonally adjusted $32.6 billion in October being the sixth greatest month on record following a lending blitz through 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although owner-occupier commitments increased again in the month, investor finance continued to slump, dropping by 6.1%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The devil of this data series forever lies within the detail, with a number of sources indicating that there has been a level of jiggery-pokery with regards to the classification of loans between owner-occupiers and investors (since there is now a clear price incentive to opt for homebuyer loans).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The second chart below shows that owner-occupier commitments and refinancing have both increased solidly, while APRA's macroprudential measures have ensured that investor finance is now falling away quickly.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The net result was that total housing finance in trend terms remained flat in the month at $33.2 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Whether or not housing markets can push forward in 2016 will depend upon the extent to which the growth in owner-occupier loans can offset declining investor lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Certainly we can see that the number of owner-occupier loans is trending up, but equally there is a chance that tightening mortgage rates could slow this sector of the market going forward.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br><br><div>Skipping down to the state level we can see that the trend number of owner-occupier commitments is in decline in Western Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory, and Queensland, which is home to a significant number of declining regional markets in line with the resources investment collapse.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend in the number of owner-occupier commitments in the Australian Capital Territory has been stone dead flat for months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The increase in the number of mortgages written has been driven purely by the two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Generally speaking the higher value loans are written in the capital cities, and as such the dollar value of owner-occupier commitments tends to be a better indicator of what is playing out in the capitals.<br><br>In terms of the trend <strong>value</strong> of owner-occupier commitments, both Western Australia and the Northern Territory are again in decline. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Brisbane market is faring relatively well at the present time, helping to nudge the aggregate value of owner-occupier commitments in Queensland steadily up, while Victoria and New South Wales in particular are rising fast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, trend monthly owner-occupier commitments in New South Wales have ripped up the chart to sit some 43 per cent higher over the year at more than $8 billion (awooga!).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>As noted, when it comes to housing finance the devil is always in the detail: more than $3 billion of the New South Wales monthly figure related to refinancing, and over the past year there has also been a slight uptick in finance for renovations.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/9/HF6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/12/9/HF6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
</div>
<div>Overall, there are many more different trends to cover than can be analysed in one blog post - it was a solid result nationally, and it all rather depends upon which market you are interested in.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One thing that we can say with certainty is that the investor boom is a cooked goose for this cycle, with investor finance now down by 9.2 per cent year-on-year. In 2016, the homebuyer sector of the market will swim back into focus.</div>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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</div>
</div>
</div>
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Investor boom is a cooked goose: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The Christmas break is often a time when Australian expatriates buy properties back in Australia to eventually occupy as their home when their overseas assignments end. </span></p>
<p><span>"We expect given the low Australian dollar, that this summer will see many more expats actively looking for a property back here in Sydney," estate agent Vicki Laing noted. </span></p>
<p><span>"There are great buying opportunities for cashed-up expats given the softening state of the Sydney market."</span></p>
<p><span>The Australian dollar briefly dipped this year below US70¢ for the first time since April 2009, down from US81c in January 2015, and at US$1.10 in mid-2011. It was around 71c in mid-December.</span></p>
<p><span>Many see it going and staying in the 60s during 2016.</span></p>
<p><span>Vicki Laing said while the low dollar was having an emerging impact on the willingness of Australian expats to buy, there were many familial influences always motivating them to buy property in Australia including schooling issues.</span></p>
<p><span>"These are not influenced by the state of the dollar," she said.</span></p>
<p><span>Expat interest is beginning to emerge in select pockets highlighted in early spring when three of the five registered bidders for a Belle Manly auction offering were expats.</span></p>
<p><span>It sold for $4,550,000 under the hammer with the buyer from Singapore beating buyers from the UK and the USA for 8 Bower Street overlooking Cabbage Tree Bay.</span></p>
<p><span>But many agents aren't seeing any increase in expat numbers.</span></p>
<p><span>"I would like to say that the expats are back in strength given Australia’s currency is now at a six year low however that’s simply not the case," Mosman Richardson &amp; Wrench agent Robert Simeon said.</span></p>
<p><span> "With the Australian dollar weaker, property is around 25% cheaper than the A$0.94c it was just 24 months ago for those who are paid in foreign currencies," Robert Simeon noted.</span></p>
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Lower Aussie dollar tempting expats to buy back home

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<p><span>The weak Australian dollar is good news for Australian expats!</span></p>
<p><span>They can invest in property cheaper from money earned abroad.</span></p>
<p><span>Australians who bought property in the US during the global financial crisis when housing prices crashed in many parts of the country, including Las Vegas, can reap the benefits now as a stronger US economy and dollar mean rising rental income and strong capital growth. </span></p>
<p><span>The Australian dollar fell to six-year lows in September. It has recovered since then, and was hovering around 0.71 to the US dollar by late December.</span></p>
<p><span>A weak local dollar would only mean those Australians who brought property in US can now find a profitable route to bring their money home: invest in property in Australia.</span></p>
<p><span>According to Greville Pabst, chief executive of property valuers and consultants WBP Property Group, a falling Aussie dollar represents positive news for expatriates, with the improved conversion rate giving them “greater buying power”.</span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Expats cashing in on weak Aussie dollar for property investment

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-4441479046766558951" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>Looks like someone forgot to tell Sydney's inner west about its alleged oversupply of apartments.</p>
<p><span>Erko.</span></p>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/22/Erko.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/22/Erko.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><br>St. Peters.</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<a href="/images/2016/04/22/St%20Peters.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/22/St%20Peters.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><br><div>You can also add to this Haberfield, Stanmore, Sydenham, Five Dock, Canada Bay, Abbotsford, Chiswick, etc. etc. all of which have remarkably tight vacancy rates of 1 per cent or under. </div>
<br><div>In fact, stretching the tarp out a bit further, and while on the subject, you might also add Surry Hills, Ultimo, Darlinghurst, Botany, Banksmeadow, Roseberry, Eastlakes, Redfern, Waverley, Bronte, Coogee, South Coogee, Pagewood, Maroubra...</div>
<br><div>Heck even Waterloo and Zetland have a vacancy rate of 0.5 per cent (OK, so that one might not a real number).</div>
<br><div>Maybe when we start to see some numbers beginning with a 4-handle it might start to get interesting, but if anything, for quality properties at least, the rental market actually seems to be tightening and rents rising. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Out west? Maybe a different story there, granted.<br><br><p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
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No inner west Sydney rental oversupply: Pete Wargent

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<div>Dwelling prices steadied in the first quarter of 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/07/04/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/07/04/B4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With share markets also down a notch in the first quarter, total household net worth ticked down marginally to $8,64 trillion. It was the first such quarterly decline since September 2011.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/3_StockBreakouts/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/3_StockBreakouts/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Australians have about $4 trillion in net worth or equity tied up in housing. Sounds like a lot, but then in the UK - where there is no compulsory superannuation - the share of housing wealth has been tracking at close to two thirds of total household net worth according to the Office for National Statistics. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's average net worth per capital therefore ticked to just a notch below $360,000, which is still exceptionally strong. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/04/B2.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/04/B2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Gearing measures</span></strong></p>
<p>On the matter of housing affordability, the interest payable to income ratio increased for a second successive quarter, although it remains 37 per cent below its 2008 peak. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/04/B3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/04/B3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">Gearing ratios ticked a bit higher, both for mortgage debt to housing assets (28.6 per cent) and for debt to assets (20.5 per cent).</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/04/B5-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/04/B5-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Overall, Q1 was a soft quarter for household net worth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, CoreLogic reported today that both Sydney houses (+6.8 percent) and apartments (+6.7 percent) surged in value in the June quarter, so household net worth will no doubt increase again in Q2.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Houses and units across the eight capital cities grew by +3.8 percent and +3.7 percent in the June quarter respectively. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Record household wealth takes a breather: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The number of auctions due to be held across the capital city markets this week will remain relatively steady, with CoreLogic currently tracking 1,758 auctions, down from 1,876 last week. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In Australia’s largest auction market of Melbourne, 778 auctions are scheduled this week, following a higher 871 last week, while in the second largest auction market of Sydney, the number of auctions being held this week (669) is higher relative to last week (647).</span></p>
<p>Last year, 2,599 auctions were held over the comparable week, which is substantially higher than the activity CoreLogic is tracking this week. This is reflective of what has been seen across the auction market so far this year.  Over the 2016 calendar year to date, 29,426 capital city auctions have been held, compared to 32,616 over the same period last year.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Capital City Auctions this week:</strong></span></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Sydney: 669</strong></li>
<li><strong>Melbourne: 778</strong></li>
<li><strong>Brisbane: 117</strong></li>
<li><strong>Adelaide: 84</strong></li>
<li><strong>Perth: 37</strong></li>
<li><strong>Canberra: 65</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>This week, Mosman in Sydney is the busiest individual suburb for auctions, with CoreLogic tracking 16 auctions so far this week. Following Mosman are three Melbourne suburbs, Glen Waverley and Richmond, with 13 auctions scheduled and Thomastown with 12 auctions.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Summary of last week’s results:</strong></span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/20/20160519-capital-city-table.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/20/20160519-capital-city-table.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Final results show that clearance rates strengthened last week, up from 67.7 per cent the previous week to 69.5 per cent, bringing the combined capital city clearance rate back in line with results seen towards the end of last month. The latest result marks the seventh consecutive week where the capital city clearance rate was under the 70 per cent mark, however this isn’t the case for Melbourne (71.3 per cent) and Sydney (76.2 per cent), where clearance rates were above 70 per cent for the sixth week in a row for Melbourne and the fourth week in a row for Sydney.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/20/20160519-capital-city.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/20/20160519-capital-city.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Last week, in each of the smaller capital city markets, clearance rates were up on a week-on-week basis.</p>
<p>Looking at some of the key regional auction markets, clearance rates were strongest in Wollongong (73.9 per cent) and Geelong (80.8 per cent) last week, however the number of auctions held in both regions was lower than over the previous week. In the two Queensland lifestyle markets of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, less than half of all reported auctions cleared last week.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/20/20160519-sub-regions.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/20/20160519-sub-regions.png" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
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Weekend auction numbers steady: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p>My housing supply dashboard showed how dwelling completions have been tracking well ahead of population growth in Western Australia. </p>
<p>And now SQM Research has reported that vacancy rates in Perth rose again to 5 per cent in June, in turn suggesting that Perth's property downturn still has a way to run.</p>
<p>Indeed, vacancy rates edged higher in most cities in June, Adelaide and Darwin excepted.</p>
<div id="post-body-1509958214451859734" class="post-body entry-content">
<div> <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/20/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/20/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>The below chart smooths vacancy rates on a 6mMA basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While not a true reflection of 'trend', since it doesn't account for the higher vacancy rates typically experienced over the Christmas period, it does show that Perth and Darwin have experienced consistently elevated vacancies since the peak of the resources construction boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/20/b2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/20/b2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Asking rents for houses in Perth have declined by 6 per cent over the past year, while in Darwin the equivalent figure is as high as 11 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Record apartment completions have taken some heat out of asking rents in Sydney and Melbourne -with Melbourne vacancy rates bouncing off 7-year lows - though apartment rents remain higher year-on-year in both of the most populous capital cities by 3 per cent and 6 per cent respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The average asking rent for a 3-bedroom house in Sydney is now $725/week, and for units the figure is $522/week.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Vacancy rates remain tight in Canberra at 1.2 per cent, and extremely tight in Hobart at 0.7 per cent, leading to soaring rents for houses in the Tasmanian capital.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
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Perth, Darwin rents still falling

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">While on the subject of dwelling price indices, CoreLogic's index results to 31 July showed capital growth across the combined capital cities of +10.5 per cent over the year to July. </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The quarterly price increased across the capital cities slowed to +2.2 per cent in July, down from a pacy +3.6 per cent in February.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Sydney houses (+12.3 per cent) and units (+10.3 per cent) have continued to be strong performers over the year to July 2017.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Growth in Melbourne house prices has accelerated to a thumping +17.2 per cent, although unit prices (+4.6 per cent) have lagged. </span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Overall, this helped to take the median capital city dwelling price to a new high of $625,000.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The rest of state figures increased by +5.4 per cent over the year to July, to $382,500.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/07/CL.jpg" target="_blank"><span class="s1">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/07/CL.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s2"><strong>Rental price growth returns</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">CoreLogic's quarterly showed a return to annual rental price growth, following a crackdown on lending to investors. </span></p>
<p class="p1"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/07/DGF71qyUMAATak6.jpg-large.jpeg" target="_blank"><span class="s1">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/07/DGF71qyUMAATak6.jpg-large.jpeg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The rental price growth was driven by Sydney, (+4.5 per cent) Melbourne (+4.1 per cent), Hobart (+6.2 per cent), and Canberra (+8.4 per cent).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">These rental price gains were offset by declines in Darwin and Perth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s2"><strong>Perth levelling out</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">CoreLogic noted that Perth appears to be approaching the bottom of its market cycle, with prices easing by -0.3 per cent over the three months to July. </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Prices in the Western Australian capital have declined by -10.2 per cent since the market peak in 2014.</span></p>
<p>Transaction volumes in Perth have also found a floor at 2,500 per month, while listing numbers have also declined.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The "mining cliff" has now been <span class="s4">effectively seen off<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/mining-cliff-seen-off">,</a></span> too.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">These are positive numbers, though I do note that my <span class="s4">dwelling supply dashboard</span> implies that there will yet be a lot of new dwellings to be absorbed!</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
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Is the Perth property market finding a floor?

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<div>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In the past week the ABS released its </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Construction Activity</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> figures for the June 2015 quarter, which pull together data on building and engineering construction.</span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see below total construction surprised in jumping back up by a seasonally adjusted +1.8% in Q2 to sit above $50 billion in chain volume measures terms.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rebound was driven by a surge in engineering construction (see the blue shaded area in the graphic below), which rose by +5.7% in the quarter, although with fewer large projects in the pipeline this sector will soon enough resume its inevitable decline over the next couple of years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the sheer size of the engineering construction sector at $26.7 billion of work done in the June quarter, the downturn is will continue to act as a material drag on economic growth for quite some time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The red shaded area below shows that residential building work declined in the June quarter by -2.9% to $14.7 billion, despite still being up by +7.6% over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Non-residential building, denoted by the yellow shaded area below, has not really contributed a great deal to growth, having actually declined by -1.2% over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/CONS1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/19/CONS1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Apartment approvals to decline</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While there is still a high volume of residential building approvals in the pipeline - which is expected to see housing starts remain strong across the next financial year - it appears that the peak in construction activity may be in for the cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although defaults relating to apartment pre-sales have been low to date and indicators of household financial stress benign, developers will be increasingly reticent to lend against high density projects in certain inner city areas, particularly in Melbourne and Brisbane.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you take a walk around Fortitude Valley/Newstead (see my photos <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/cranewatch-newstead" target="_blank">here</a> for an idea of what I'm referring to), or West End/South Brisbane (see my photos <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/brisbane-apartments-part-deux" target="_blank">here</a> for more of the same) it is not hard to see why, with building approvals as a percentage of existing dwelling stock already tracking at an elevated level.<br><br>Brisbane CBD faces similar challenges as I looked at with some photos <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/brisbane-apartments" target="_blank">here</a>, as does Melbourne in certain inner city locations.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The is a glut of apartment building coming online in these areas which will see vacancy rates rise and rents fall, and it follows there is no requirement for further apartment approvals.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, we already know that DA lodgements in Brisbane began to fall quite sharply earlier in the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is one of the risks identified by the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2015/oct/html/contents" target="_blank">Reserve Bank</a> of a property cycle which is driven largely by investors - speculative demand can lead to a sharp supply response. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this case it comes in the guise of rapid increase in construction activity in the apartment sector, and in turn a future supply overhang.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Implications</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While work in the pipeline should keep residential building activity humming along at a historically high level - and a boom in major renovations work could even see total residential activity rise a little from here - there appears to be little hope that the sector can contribute a great deal more to economic growth than it already has.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since engineering construction is also set to decline over the next couple of years, it is perhaps little wonder that future markets are beginning to look for further interest rate cuts (plural) towards a cash rate of just 1.50%. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While forecasters are expecting the economy to grow at a moderate pace in Q3, on the evidence of the above numbers there could potentially be some downside risk, particularly if resources construction resumes its contraction. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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