<p data-end="256" data-start="0"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.</p>

<p data-end="446" data-start="258">The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.</p>

<p data-end="645" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="448">Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.</p>

<p>The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.</p>

<p>The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”</p>

<p data-end="626" data-start="350">Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.</p>

<p data-end="928" data-start="628">“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”</p>

<p data-end="1147" data-start="930">Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.</p>

<p data-end="1510" data-start="1149">“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”</p>

<p data-end="1510" data-start="1149"><img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.</p>

<p>Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.</p>

<p>The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.</p>

<p>The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.</p>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
<p data-end="305" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.</p>
</section>


Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

<p style="text-align:start">The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.</p>

<p>The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.</p>

<p>Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.</p>

<p>The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.</p>

<p>As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.</p>

<p><img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" /></p>

<p>The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.</p>

<p>An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.</p>

<p>The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;</p>

<p>It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.</p>

<p>Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.</p>

<p>“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.</p>

<p>“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.</p>

<p>“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.</p>

<p>“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”</p>


Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

<p>Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.</p>

<p>A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.</p>

<p>Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.</p>

<p>“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.</p>

<p>Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.</p>

<p>“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.</p>

<p>The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.</p>

<p>It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.</p>

<p>The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.</p>

<p>One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.</p>

<p>Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.</p>

<p>The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.</p>

<p>Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.</p>

<p>Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.</p>

<p>Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.</p>

<p>“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”</p>

<p>Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.</p>

<p>Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.</p>

<p>Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.</p>


400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

<p>Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p>The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.</p>

<p>Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" /></p>

<p>“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.</p>

<p>The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”</p>

<p>The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" /></p>

<p>The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.</p>

<p>According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.</p>

<p>“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.</p>

<p>A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.</p>

<p>Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" /></p>

<p>All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.</p>

<p>The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.</p>


Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

<p>Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.</p>

<p>The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.</p>

<p>Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" /></p>

<p>Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.</p>

<p>The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.</p>

<p>"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.</p>

<p>The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.</p>

<p>The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" /></p>

<p>Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.</p>

<p>Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.</p>


First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

Residential Market

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">We receive lots of calls from property investors wanting to talk to us about developing. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">During our initial chat we discuss their goals and achievements to date with property. Usually we find that most people have at least one investment property, some have several. Some have built a house before but most haven’t. Then we discuss what property developing is like as an </span><em style="line-height: 1.3em;">experience</em><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> to see if they think it may suit them.</span></p>
<p>Property developing is not for everyone and I’ve found that you need to be somewhat flexible, have an open mind and be fairly non-controlling and decisive.  Without going into a Carl Jung type personality and psychological analysis, it can be hard to determine if a person is ready to embark on a development. But having entrepreneurial traits will help as things won’t always go to plan.</p>
<p>A good starting point is to ask yourself these questions: </p>
<ul>
<li>Do I understand what needs to be done?</li>
<li>Can I do what’s got to be done?</li>
<li>Do I have the necessary skills, resources, time, and team support?</li>
<li>Can I handle risk?</li>
<li>Can I create real value?</li>
</ul>
<p>Property Bloom has managed many property developments over the years and as we've progressed, we’ve continually refined our process – <strong>with every development comes a new learning and we use this experience to improve what we do.</strong>  By doing this we’ve been able to save time, money and reduce a lot of the risk. </p>
<p>Here's an example. The other day we reviewing plans for one of our projects and focussed turned to  the roof. We came up with a great look using various gables to break up the roof line.</p>
<p>Generally speaking, the more detail in the roof design, the more interesting but also the more expensive. We worked out if we used a more simple hip roof, the saving on trusses and roofing materials was substantial. We looked at a design with the hip roof and decided the money was best saved. The saving could be used in other areas that would actually add value like ducted air conditioning for instance.</p>
<p>If you are embarking on a development, due diligence is key. Find areas where there’s good demand and growth indicators with good infrastructure investment taking place.  This can indicate planned growth for the area. Then closely track what’s happening in the locations – fundamental research is just as, if not more important as statistical research to us.</p>
<p>Project managing your development involves dynamic relationships between several different parties. Building established and trusted relationships takes time. Your builder will be one of the most important people on your team so ensure they are efficient and build to the highest of standards. You should work closely with them to ensure all is running to schedule.</p>
<p>So if you find you are not set up to develop property and need a helping hand, then consider engaging a project manager who can help mitigate risk by using their tested methods, understanding of the cities and their suburbs they develop in, that can source good development sites and have a team of people  ready to get your development off the ground. Perhaps with a positive development experience under your belt, you'll be ready to tackle the next on your own.</p>
<p><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
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jochivers-wq5Bp59R5a

Are you ready to be a property developer? Jo Chivers

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<p class="Body">Let’s assume for a moment that the people raging about the alleged affordability crisis actually care about the issue and want to see solutions.</p>
<p class="Body">I say that because much of it is grandstanding by attention-seekers who really don’t give a damn.</p>
<p class="Body">The problem they face is that they’re never going to find a remedy, one that actually works, until they identify the real problems.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">So far the debate, for want of a better word, has focused on fighting phantoms. Everyone, it seems, has their pet theories about who’s to blame and is filling up the airways with angry demands that the culprits be dealt with.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">The problem is, no one can agree on who the villains really are.</p>
<p class="Body">Recently we had former federal minister and previous NSW premier, Bob Carr, stridently declaring that rising prices were all caused by migrants flooding into Australia. Apparently these people have more money than sense and rampage around our major cities paying way too much for houses, thereby pushing prices beyond the reach of our kiddies.</p>
<p class="Body">But the current Federal Government, after two long and expensive parliamentary inquiries into the affordability smokescreen, somehow came to the belief that it was all caused by foreign investors buying mansions when they’re supposed to be buying new dwellings. With appropriate sabre-rattling, the feds declared they were going to clamp down on the dastardly aliens, thereby creating a level playing field, thereby making homes cheaper for our kiddies, therefore affordability fixed.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">So they jolly well forced a handful of foreign buyers to sell back their mansions. There you go, problem solved. Houses cheaper right across Australia.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Meanwhile, federal Labor has popped up and postulated that it’s not the fault of overseas migrants, despite one of their own declaring that it was, nor the fault of foreign investors breaking the rules. Labor has mandated that it’s the fault of our home-grown investors – not all of them mind you, just the ones who claim negative gearing tax benefits.</p>
<p class="Body">So Labor claims it can fix the (Sydney) affordability problem by removing the right to claim negative gearing tax benefits, except for new properties.</p>
<p class="Body">There are a few others, including a couple of obscure university activists who published a paper recently, who adhere to the theology that declares negative gearing the source of all evil in real estate, notwithstanding the laughable illogic of their arguments.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Labor is also part of the camp, which is also populated by economists, that believes it’s the so-called capital gains concession that drives investors beyond reason to paying silly prices for things.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">But there’s yet another school of thought out there, often put forward by economists who think they know more about real estate than they actually do. They claim that it’s grants and stamp duty concessions given to first-home buyers that have forced up house prices, by empowering youngsters who would not otherwise be competing in the market. One sub-theory is that the price of houses rises by the amount of the government grant.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">So take your pick. According to various schools of thought, all of them expounded vehemently by zealots totally convinced of their validity, the villains who force up house prices are:-<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">(1)  migrants,</p>
<p class="Body">(2)  foreign investors,</p>
<p class="Body">(3)  negatively-geared Australian investors,</p>
<p class="Body">(4)  all investors who benefit from the CGT concession, or</p>
<p class="Body">(5)  first-time buyers bolstered by government grants and stamp duty concessions.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">So who’s right? The answer, sadly, is: none of them! They’re all wrong!</p>
<p class="Body">And this is why there will never be any realistic solution to the alleged affordability crisis. Everyone who appears to care is out there chasing phantom targets.</p>
<p class="Body">You can’t devise a cure if you’ve mis-diagnosed the illness.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">The buying sector most responsible for prices rising over time is never mentioned in the “debate”. This buying sector is the biggest influence of housing markets because they’re the biggest in number - and they have both the financial capacity and the motivation to pay high prices to secure the homes they want.</p>
<p class="Body">They’re home-buyers other than first-time buyers – the next-time buyers. People relocating, upgrading, moving onward and upward. People who have owned homes for years and are seeking to move to bigger and better ones, armed with a strong financial position.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">The problem for those all worked up about affordability (which, essentially, is a Sydney issue, not a national one) is that it’s very hard to nobble them. They don’t receive government grants, they don’t claim negative gearing and they don’t pay CGT so they can’t benefit from the so-called concession.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">To show you what I mean, let’s examine some statistics about market share, as revealed by the NAB quarterly surveys.</p>
<p class="Body">Foreign investors, an easy target for politicians wanting to blame an unpopular minority with no political cost, are about 8 percent of buyers of established property.</p>
<p class="Body">Australian investors comprise 28 percent of buyers and first-time home buyers are 20 percent.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">The remainder of the market, around 43 percent of it, are those people who never get discussed in the “why prices rise” debate, the next-time buyers.</p>
<p class="Body">Given that foreign investors are only 8 percent of the market, it’s unreasonable to blame them for prices rising. You might well ask: what about the other 92 percent?</p>
<p class="Body">ATO data shows that a lot of Australian investors don’t claim negative-gearing tax deductions, as many own properties where the rent covers all costs. I am one of them.</p>
<p class="Body">My estimate is that about 15 percent of the market comprises negatively-geared Australian investors. According to Labor leader Bill Shorten, in his announcement of his tax policy, those 15 percent are solely responsible for all price rises over the past 30 years. If he truly believes that, he’s an idiot. Again you might well ask: but what about the other 85 percent?<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">It’s not just about numbers of people in the market. It’s also about financial capacity and motivation.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">First-home buyers, with or without state government grants (only available now on new properties), are relatively few in number and are constrained by their tight budgets. They don’t pay silly prices for homes.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Investors are a little more numerous but are still very much in the minority. And they are highly motivated to buy at the lowest possible prices. For investors, it’s all about the numbers, not about falling in love with a single property they just have to have. If they can’t get it at a price that stacks up as an investment, most will walk away – because there are a hundred others just around the corner.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">That leaves that anonymous bunch of people we call the next-time buyers. They’re remarkable for their ability to fly under the radar of media debate. No one ever talks about them. But they’re the most influential part of the market, by a wide margin.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">They’re not half the buying market, but they’re close to it. Because they’ve owned property for a while and built up equity, they’re financially strong. And they’re aspirational, so they’re highly motivated and will often pay whatever it takes (within reason, mostly) to secure that one property they must have.</p>
<p class="Body">They’re the sneaky bastards who force prices to rise. And there’s almost nothing politicians can do to stop them.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Housing affordability debate focused on fighting phantoms: Terry Ryder

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<p><span>According to t<span>he just-launched CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Forecast Home Value Index</span>, home values are forecast to continue rising solidly in Sydney and Melbourne over the next decade. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/29/Modys.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/29/Modys.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>It sees annual price growth of more than +5 per cent returning for Perth by 2017, but subdued growth for Adelaide over the next two years, while Darwin prices are expected to decline in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of the capital cities, Brisbane is forecast to fare best over the next two years with home value growth of around +12 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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10 year home price forecast for Sydney: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released demographic data for the September 2015 quarter recently.</p>
<p>The data showed a continuation of the trend towards a slower rate of population growth at a national level. At the end of the quarter, it was estimated that there were 23,860,133 residents of Australia, an increase of just 0.3 percent over the quarter and 1.3 percent over the past year.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-1-4-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-1-4-580x206.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The 12 months to September 2015 saw an additional 313,237 residents of Australia which is 7.3 percent lower than over the same quarter in 2014.  In fact, the annual increase in population for the country is the lowest it has been since the June 2011 quarter.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-2-3-580x205.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-2-3-580x205.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>At a national level, there are two components of population growth, natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration.  Over the past year, there was a natural increase of 145,585 persons and net overseas migration of 167,652 persons.  As the above chart shows, the two measures are converging due to a sharp decline in net overseas migration.  Annual net overseas migration is now at its lowest level since September 2006, is -7.0 percent lower over the year and -46.9 percent lower than its peak in December 2008.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-3-4-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-3-4-580x206.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking at population growth across the states and territories, the rate of growth has been strongest over the past year in Victoria at 1.7 percent and lowest in the Northern Territory at 0.3 percent.</p>
<p>The annual rate of population growth is above 1 percent in all states and territories except the Northern Territory, Tasmania and South Australia. In terms of raw number population increase over the year, New South Wales and Victoria are way out in front of all other areas with increases of 102,243 persons and 102,311 persons respectively. </p>
<p>Queensland (55,232) and Western Australia (32,542) were the only other two regions to record annual population growth of more than 15,000 persons.  Across the remaining states and territories the annual population increase was recorded at: 12,396 persons in South Australia, 5,491 persons in the Australian Capital Territory, 2,159 persons in Tasmania and 826 persons.</p>
<p>The four most populous states accounted for 93.3 percent of total population growth over the year with New South Wales and Victoria accounting for 65.3 percent.</p>
<p>The mining states and territories in particular have felt the full brunt of the slowdown in population. At its peak in December 2008, Queensland recorded a population increase of 115,561 with annual growth now less than half this figure.  In Western Australia, annual population increases peaked at 88,156 persons in September 2012 and in Northern Territory the annual population increase peaked at 7,073 persons in March 2013.</p>
<p>It is also worthwhile at the state and territory level to have a look at the interstate migration trends.  As well as net overseas migration there is net interstate migration across the states and territories which affects population growth.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-4-4-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-4-4-580x206.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Firstly if we look at annual net overseas migration, New South Wales (66,540) and Victoria (55,447) account for an overwhelming majority of the population increase.  In fact, 72.8 percent of all net overseas migration was into these two states which is the highest proportion since December 1984.</p>
<p>Elsewhere the number of net overseas migrants has been recorded at: 16,725 persons in Queensland, 10,255 persons in South Australia, 14,249 persons in Western Australia, 1,119 persons in Tasmania, 975 persons in the Northern Territory and 2,333 persons in the Australian Capital Territory. Annual net overseas migration into Queensland is at its lowest level since December 2000 and South Australian net overseas migration is at its lowest level since December 2011.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/5/Chart-5-2-580x205.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/5/Chart-5-2-580x205.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Turning to net interstate migration, movement between the states and territories is slowly starting to rise again; the above chart shows the annual movements between states and territories.  The chart shows that since 2003 there has been a fairly consistent decline in the proportion of the population moving interstate.  I have to admit this is a little surprising given that it coincides with the end of Sydney’s and Melbourne’s housing boom and is pretty much the beginning of the mining boom.  Although, the sudden slowing of interstate migration coincides with the substantial ramping-up of net overseas migration and with net overseas migration we are now seeing a pick-up in interstate migration.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/5/Chart-6-1-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/5/Chart-6-1-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Over the past 12 months, Victoria and Queensland are the only two states or territories to have recorded a positive net inflow of population form other states.  Net interstate migration to Victoria was a record high 11,187 persons over the past year compared to 6,890 persons to Queensland. </p>
<p>Net interstate migration into Queensland seems to be turning a corner after hitting a trough of 5,598 persons over the year to December 2014. </p>
<p>Across the remaining states and territories there have been losses from net interstate migration of: -7,451 persons in New South Wales, -4,125 persons in South Australia, -2,721 persons in Western Australia, -180 persons in Tasmania, -3,019 persons in the Northern Territory and -581 persons in the Australian Capital Territory.  The net loss of persons from interstate migration is at its highest level since March 2014 in New South Wales, its highest since June 2009 in South Australia and its greatest since March 2003 in Western Australia. In Tasmania the loss of residents to interstate migration is at its lowest level since June 2011 and it is at its lowest level since December 2013 in the Australian Capital Territory.</p>
<p>The more up-to-date overseas arrivals and departures data indicates that net overseas migration is likely to trend even lower next quarter which will dampen the national rate of population growth further.  At the same time, the data shows that Victoria (which would seem to be a proxy for Melbourne) is the migration epicentre of the country attracting large numbers of both overseas and interstate migrants. </p>
<p>Meanwhile the outflow of residents leaving New South Wales is picking up pace while interstate migration to Queensland is starting to build.</p>
<p>Perhaps we are seeing the impact of high housing costs in Sydney and fairly strong jobs growth in Victoria and Queensland starting to attract Sydneysiders to other parts of the Eastern Seaboard.  Weaker economic conditions in Western Australia are seeing residents leave with Victoria and Queensland the benefactors.  Meanwhile, Tasmania’s outflow of residents is slowing on the back of the booming tourism sector and a recent improvement in economic conditions.</p>
<p>Finally with population growth slowing we are seeing a better relationship between housing supply and housing demand.  After recently hitting record high levels, it is reasonable to expect that the slowing population growth will see property developers respond by seeking fewer approvals for new residential properties.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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Population growth continues to slow due to ongoing decline in net overseas migration: Cameron Kusher

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<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It's very much true that monthly figures often don't tell you a lot, and even annual figures are often quite misleading. </span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>But over a period of years now we have seen Melbourne come to utterly dominate population and employment growth in Victoria, directly at the expense of the state's regional centres. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year Greater Sydney (+67,200) and Greater Melbourne (+59,700) have both added a healthy balance to their total employed figures respectively, while Greater Brisbane added a solid (+34,900). <br><br>And after some years of stagnation regional New South Wales (+60,900) has now at last come to the party, adding jobs in the state's regional centres both to the north and south of the harbour city. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, mirroring what I already discussed in more detail here when analysing the latest population growth figures, regional Victoria added just 900 jobs over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, if you strip out Geelong which added nearly 20,000 jobs over the year to March 2016 to see its unemployment rate fall to just 5.2 per cent, the rest of state has been going backwards as Greater Melbourne powers along. The most recently available population growth figures painted a very similar picture.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It is true that annual figures can sometimes be misleading, but population and employment projections are becoming increasingly lopsided towards the capital city in Victoria to the extent that regional Victoria could actually soon even soon be seeing its population decline in aggregate.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In fact, regional employment growth has been generally very weak in aggregate across all states outside of the Premier State, despite some tourism-related gains in Queensland's coastal regions. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Regional employment fell year-on-year, for example, in both South Australia (-900) and Western Australia (-15,900), the latter's labour force having been severely dampened by the end of the mining construction boom. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></div>
<div>Totting it all up we can see just how skewed employment growth has been towards a few capital cities, and certain parts of regional Queensland. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment rates</span></strong></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Low interest rates are working their magic in the three largest capital cities where rolling annual unemployment rates are having been trending down nicely, in Greater Sydney, in Greater Melbourne, and in Greater Brisbane. </div>
<div>
<br>Elsewhere it's not such a pretty picture, particularly in Adelaide which now has by far and away the highest unemployment rate of the capital cities. <br><br>Greater Perth's rolling annual unemployment rate now seems to be holding firm at just under 6 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Sydney continues to have the best placed economy, reflected in generally low unemployment rates, especially in its inner suburbs. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Ripple</span></strong><br><br>Sydney and to a somewhat lesser extent Melbourne have seen their property markets take off since 2012 in response to low interest rates, but where will that growth ripple to next?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In my opinion, we could easily see a spike or "pop" in house prices in Hobart and Adelaide, following so many years of subdued property price growth and a relatively moribund construction industry which has seen rental markets become fairly tight in some cases. <br><br>In fact, this "pop" in prices may already be happening to some extent.<br><br>
</div>
<div>However, with low employment growth, slow population growth, and slow economic growth, more sustainable property price increases will be much harder to come by. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the course of the next cycle, Brisbane probably has the best property market prospects due its relative affordability. <br><br>Despite slower net overseas migration than it previously experienced Queensland benefits from interstate migration (as opposed to, say, South Australia, where a brain drain represents the opposite dynamic). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate has also steadily been trending down in Brisbane, helped by a construction boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>True, the economy has hardly been firing, even if things are broadly tracking in the right direction.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But the initial trigger for rising property prices is simply likely to be rising property prices, with the cheapest available cost of borrowing having not far off halved since the last time the city saw any price growth in real terms, and interstate investors struggling to see so much value elsewhere. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, dwelling prices are already rising quite fast in some areas of Brisbane, reflected in year-on-year median price growth of above +6 per cent for Brisbane and Gold Coast (CoreLogic-RP Data), but the market is quite multi-speed, particularly with the volume of construction going on. </div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Em9By-I0i7E/VxhOPe0ZmWI/AAAAAAAAckc/ql1Vmw8Js-IJMMVaMVo-FmCGOrCcGTFcgCLcB/s1600/A7.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Em9By-I0i7E/VxhOPe0ZmWI/AAAAAAAAckc/ql1Vmw8Js-IJMMVaMVo-FmCGOrCcGTFcgCLcB/s1600/A7.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Em9By-I0i7E/VxhOPe0ZmWI/AAAAAAAAckc/ql1Vmw8Js-IJMMVaMVo-FmCGOrCcGTFcgCLcB/s640/A7.jpg" width="640" height="356"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Regional headwinds</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane offers something that Sydney and Melbourne no longer do, being cheap entry prices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And if you're looking for cheaper entry prices still and higher initial rental yields you may be tempted further afield.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, remember that yield and income are not the same thing, and in the field of investment a higher yield can often be reflective of higher risk. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular a once-in-a-century commodities and resources construction boom must eventually experience a corresponding decline, and so regions with a concentrated exposure to a narrow range of industries may see a spike in unemployment, which tends to result in slowing population growth, falling property prices, and rising vacancy rates (which is the ultimate risk for leveraged investors).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I don't know much about how Townsville's property market is tracking lately, but do note that unemployment just hit its highest level in 13 years this month after the commencement of the Yabulu lay-offs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Granted monthly unemployment readings at the sub-regional level are incredibly seasonal and are about as reliable as a beat up Datsun. But this is not a coincidental result with Townsville having witnessed nearly 10,000 jobs lost in just the past year alone, the high profile Nickel industry closure being the latest casualties of the bust.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest ABS figures record some 13,100 unemployed persons in Townsville, the highest since a brief spike in February 2003 for the most troubling regional unemployment rate in Australia at 12.4 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/26/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/26/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>These types of trends tend to be reflected in rising vacancy rates as population growth dries up. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It never pays to over-dramatize, but Warwick Powell (to my knowledge not a man prone to making wildly exaggerated statements) said recently that "the region is on the precipice of a great depression", while economist Colin Dwyer lamented that Townsville is "the insolvency capital of Australia". </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS data shows that employment in Townsville has fallen by an extraordinary 20,342 or 18 per cent in only the past year. Let's hope to goodness that is a rogue figure, but it doesn't much look like it from the trend. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Townsville unemployment at 13 year high: Pete Wargent

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<div>More interesting trends reported today by SQM Research for the month of April 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year Melbourne's reported vacancy rate declined from 2.2 per cent to 2.1 per cent, while in Sydney the reported vacancy rate has fallen from from 1.8 per cent to 1.7 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the other end of the spectrum, Perth reached a new cyclical high of 4.6 per cent suggesting that the bottom for the Western Australian capital may not yet be in, although lower interest rates may well help to support prices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Perth both median house (-8.4 per cent) and unit (-9,3 per cent) asking rents have declined over the past year, although actual dwelling price declines have been modest. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Asking rents are also down for Darwin houses (-8.4 per cent) and units (-12.5 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand median asking unit rents increased year-on-year or both Sydney (+5 per cent) and Melbourne (+4.1 per cent), while in Brisbane the increase was more modest (+1.3 per cent).</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/18/SQM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/05/18/SQM.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Since month to month vacancy rates can move around a bit, I've smoothed the data below on a 4mMA basis (arguably I should also be applying a seasonal factor, but I haven't so...shucks).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This chart gives an interesting perspective on recent trends, although the Christmas period can be a bit of a distortion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/05/18/SQM2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/05/18/SQM2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>Fascinating stuff.</span></p>
<div>In most capital cities vacancy rates have declined over the past year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Sydney demand has marginally outstripped supply. Even in apartment construction hotspots such as Green Square vacancy rates have reportedly fallen sharply from 3.5 per cent this time last year to just 1 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now sure, you might question the measurement criteria (where a new block of units is constructed only a sample of apartments might be advertised for rent, for example), but aren't the measurement criteria measuring like-for-like figures?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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Melbourne and Sydney rental property vacancies down over year: Pete Wargent

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<p class="Body">Population growth does not, alone, create real estate hotspots. And it’s not the core element of a growth property market. If it was, Melbourne prices would have grown faster than Sydney’s over the past five years.</p>
<p class="Body">Population is a factor, one of many to be considered.</p>
<p class="Body">In that regard, a recent analysis of population trends written by “Glenn the Census Exert” from the .<strong><em>id</em></strong> website team makes interesting reading. It focuses on Australia’s 50 largest cities and towns, based on ABS data for the 2015 financial year.</p>
<p class="Body">It shows the prominence of Melbourne as the nation-leading city. Over the 2015 financial year and over the previous five years, Melbourne added more to its population than Sydney did. Melbourne grew 10.1 percent in five years (adding almost 400,000 people), compared to Sydney’s 8.2 percent (343,000 extra citizens). Melbourne grew 2.0 percent in FY2015, compared to Sydney’s 1.7 percent.</p>
<p class="Body">So why has Sydney’s price growth been so much higher than Melbourne’s? Because Sydney’s economy has been stronger and the infrastructure spend has been much greater than Melbourne’s. Population growth is important, but economic strength and infrastructure spending has greater influence.</p>
<p class="Body">Perth has been an outstanding population growth story as well. Although it has a smaller population than Brisbane it has added considerably more (236,000) over the past five years than Brisbane (190,000) has. In fact, over five years Perth has a higher growth rate (13.7 percent) than Melbourne (10.1 percent) but its growth has slowed markedly in recent years – so that in FY2015 Perth’s population growth rate was lower than those in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. Its stellar growth stopped when the resources boom fell away.</p>
<p class="Body">Of the 50 largest urban areas in Australia, the fastest growth rate over five years was achieved by the Melton LGA on the western periphery of Melbourne, up 28 percent. Another growth area on the fringes of Melbourne, the Warragul-Drouin area, grew 14.2 percent over five years. In that same time frame, Geelong added 12,000 to its population, a rise of 7 percent. This adds to the general scenario of Melbourne as the king of population growth.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Also prominent were the Busselton (up 18.5 percent) and Bunbury (up 15 percent) areas, both south of Perth.</p>
<p class="Body">In terms of growth in FY2015, Melton was again No.1 (up 4.6 percent in 12 months), followed by Warrugul-Drouin, Busselton, Bunbury and Gladstone in Queensland (all growing between 2 percent and 3 percent over 12 months).</p>
<p class="Body">Other notable growth centres include the Sunshine Coast, which added as much to its population over five years as Canberra did, and the Gold Coast, which added twice as many people as Canberra and 10 times more than Hobart.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">The percentage growth rate for the Gold Coast is no longer as high as in the past (it’s now growing from a much larger base, so spectacular growth numbers aren’t so easy), but it’s still a massive growth centre. The population of the Gold Coast-Tweed region grew 53,500 over five years, a rise of almost 10 percent. It’s the nation’s sixth largest city, with 625,000 residents, well ahead of Newcastle-Maitland and Canberra-Queanbeyan.</p>
<p class="Body">So why have Gold Coast prices down little over the past five or six years, amid all that population growth? Because developers oversupplied the market with high-rise apartments, yet again. After six down years, the market is now showing some growth, because the surplus has been soaked up and, more importantly, there’s a massive infrastructure spend happening.</p>
<p class="Body">The Sunshine Coast has been a big growth centre. Its growth rate over five years (9 percent) has been almost as big as the Gold Coast’s, and 25,000 has been added to its population. The Sunshine Coast is the nation’s 10<sup>th</sup> biggest city – larger than Wollongong and considerably larger than Hobart.</p>
<p class="Body">Similar to the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast has become a growth property market because of significant new spending on infrastructure and other construction projects.</p>
<p class="Body">Townsville has attracted some negative headlines lately but it’s a significant growth city, adding 16,000 or 10% to its population over the past five years, reaching 180,000. It’s growing faster than its North Queensland rival, Cairns.</p>
<p class="Body"> </p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Population growth does not, alone, create real estate hotspots: Terry Ryder

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<p>Whilst property markets closely watch what can directly influence market sentiment in 2016 we should be watching very closely what will indirectly affect the market and just how big these influences may be.</p>
<p>I can nominate six (6) such influences that I believe will have significant repercussions on how we should be approaching the markets.</p>
<h5>1. Illegal Property Acquisitions</h5>
<p>I find this topic quite fascinating given I have always been of the belief that this practice is (or was) huge and I have not changed my opinion. In May, 2015 the then treasurer Joe Hockey set aside 60 investigators from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) stating that from their initial investigations “they are just at the tip of the iceberg.”</p>
<p>Fast forward seven months where this week the ATO announced that it was now investigating an estimated 31 million records from 1985 to 2015. This order applies to all states and territories for not only sales transactions but also all rental agreements, landlords, weekly rents, length of lease and rental bonds. The biggest investigation into Australian real estate since 1993 when the ATO moved records to computer technologies and every real estate agency in Australia was forced into providing every transaction record.</p>
<p>So from this point forward I’m going to call this the “Please Explain Inquiry” given the ATO obviously believes that they have uncovered interesting irregularities.</p>
<p>It should also be noted that the Department for Rip Van Winkle otherwise known as the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) have just appointed former ASIO director, general David Irvine, to the board. Two very big announcements in the space of a week – watch for some big announcements in 2016.</p>
<h5>2. Underquoting Reforms in NSW</h5>
<p>Not before time from 1 January 2016 real estate agents must quote the likely selling price at the figure(s) that appear on the Agency Agreement. The fines and penalties for failure to do so are severe. The NSW Government Office of Fair Trading will be out in force next year policing their prized new legislation that is a major win for consumers and ethical agents. This will also cause major problems for the habitual agents who love nothing more than buying listings through valuing properties at ridiculous prices. . Expect to see plenty of naming and shaming in 2016.</p>
<h5>3. Off – The – Plan Purchases</h5>
<p>It would be an understatement to suggest that investors are not skittish and squirming about their recent property acquisitions. What remains to be seen is how many pull the plug and walk – away from their purchases believing that Sydney’s apartment investment markets are facing a massive correction in 2016.</p>
<p>Again the NSW government has been busy rushing through more property legislation stopping developers cancelling existing contracts – sunset clauses, because the apartment prices have increased significantly. That loophole has been now shut for good.</p>
<h5>4. Council Mergers</h5>
<p>An announcement regarding the mergers is just days away although I am reliably advised that Mosman will not be forced into a merge and will stand alone. Having said that it will lose all powers regarding new apartment development approvals and this now will be handled by the state government.</p>
<h5>5. 2016 Federal Election</h5>
<p>They say that the Melbourne Cup stops the nation – well a federal election can stop the real estate markets. We can expect to hear plenty in 2016 about what’s now off the table and what’s now on the table. Two words will play a massive part and I’m not talking about negative gearing. No tax reform will be the keywords in 2016 although at this stage its anyone’s guess to what extent and just what lengths the Turnbull government will go. Whatever the case this will be a major distraction in 2016 where I’d love a dollar every time I hear the words Goods &amp; Services tax – GST.</p>
<p>This now leads me to the very big X Factor for 2016.</p>
<h5>6. X Factor</h5>
<p>The premier must have been reading my blogs with a new report from the NRMA confirming that planning is in the early stages to see a rail line from Sydney’s northern beaches through Mosman to Cremorne and Neutral Bay to the Sydney CBD.</p>
<p>The other key recommendation is for a tunnel under the Spit Bridge connecting with Seaforth and the Warringah Freeway linking up with the new harbour tunnel which eventually will connect to the WestConnex.</p>
<p>The report stated – “For decades, the northern beaches and the lower north shore has been the Bermuda triangle of transport infrastructure, where plans have come and gone to disappear without a trace.” It then went on to say “The chronic neglect has left our roads badly congested and buses at or over capacity. We believe the government must now take this opportunity to put the region back on the agenda as part of its overall drive to improve infrastructure across Sydney.”</p>
<p>The report revealed that Spit Road and Military Road were two of the worst in Sydney with higher traffic than Parramatta Road. On an average weekday, 70,000 vehicles use the Spit Bridge, 80,000 use Military Road and approximately 64,000 use Parramatta Road at Camperdown.</p>
<p>So you can expect to see high rise along Military Road and even more high density around the new suburb train stations.</p>
<p>Thank you for joining us in 2015 and we will be back with Virtual Realty News in 2016 – our 16th year. From all of us at Richardson &amp; Wrench Mosman/Neutral Bay we wish you a very Merry Christmas and a safe and happy New Year.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 84</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 55</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 53</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 59</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 51</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 42</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 11</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 11</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 6</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 20</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 17</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 15</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 8</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 7</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 34</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30</p>
<p>*Number of apartments on the market this week – 26</p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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Plenty of x-factor on the 2016 property menu: Robert Simeon

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<div>There are multiple data sources for tracking property markets, but the ABS Residential Property Price Indexes series is always one worth analysing, particularly since the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) itself follows it closely.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Established house prices rose by +2.2% in the third quarter to be +11.4% higher over the past 12 months, while attached dwellings rose by +1.4% to be +8.7 % higher over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While averages mask endless underlying trends, the long run data implies that on average over the past dozen years established house prices (+5.6% per annum) have been outperforming attached dwellings (+4.8% per annum), commensurate with lower initial spot yields. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/Resi1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/Resi1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Let's step today's the key figures in three short parts.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Price indexes</span></strong><br><br><div>The star performers over the past year have been established houses in Sydney (+21.9%) and attached dwellings in the same city (+15.8%).</div>
<div>
<br>Established house prices in Melbourne have also performed strongly to be up by +11.5% over the year, but on average attached dwellings price growth in the Victorian capital has been more contained at +4.5%, reflective of the volume of new supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/Resi2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/Resi2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Dwelling prices over the year have performed solidly in Brisbane (+3.8 per cent), Canberra (+4.0 per cent), Adelaide (+3.5 per cent), and Hobart (+1.7 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand there have been moderate declines to date in Darwin (-2.0 per cent) and Perth (-3.3 per cent), although interestingly Domain Group forecasts moderate price growth to return to both cities in 2016, whereas I have previously argued that prices may follow rents down in the next calendar year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the end of 2008 Sydney (+83 per cent) and Melbourne (+51 per cent) have outperformed impressively, while prices are also now rising in Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, and Hobart. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/Resi3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/Resi3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2 - Stock value</span></strong><br><br><div>Over the past three years the total value of dwelling stock has surged +32 per cent or +$1.42 trillion higher, to a total stock value of $5.86 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/16/Resi4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/16/Resi4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>More than 90 per cent of the gains in the value of dwelling stock over those three years have been accounted for by New South Wales (+$756 billion), Victoria (+$390 billion), and Queensland (+$131 billion), with the other states and territories accounting for the remaining +$141 billion. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/16/Resi5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/12/16/Resi5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Mean dwelling prices over the past three years have exploded in New South Wales (+$236,000), and increased strongly in Victoria (+$133,000). </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/16/Resi6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/12/16/Resi6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In fact, despite the recent declines in Western Australia and the Northern Territory noted above, the mean dwelling price has moved some way higher across all states and territories across a three year timeframe.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - Volume of dwelling stock</span></strong><br><br><div>The final chart below helps to explain why although an increase in the dwelling supply can accentuate market downturns - particularly in smaller towns and cities - in the larger cities an increase in building activity on its own can take years to dampen prices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One reason for this is that new builds only ever account for a fraction of transactions in a given year, and therefore the level of available supply at any point in time is rather driven by the established or "second hand" market (another reason is that over-simplified views of the market fail to take account of how well the new supply matches demand at the LGA, suburb, and household formation level).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past four years, while the Australian Capital Territory (+10.9 per cent) and the Northern Territory (+10.1 per cent) have increased their respective number of dwellings materially, this is of course somewhat harder to achieve when you are starting from a higher base figure.</div>
<div>
<br>Despite this, Western Australia (+8.6 per cent) and Victoria (+7.9 per cent) have made valiant attempts to increase the total supply of dwellings since the the equivalent quarter 2011 according to the ABS data series.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/16/Resi7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/16/Resi7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the other hand, the ABS figures show that the number of New South Wales dwellings has increased by only +4.4 per cent over the past four years, which may go some of the way to explaining why Sydney's rental market has remained relatively tight to date, despite alleged overbuilding.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past three years the population of Greater Sydney has increased by around +230,000, and thus while it is easy enough to find localised areas of oversupply, after accounting for stock obsolescence, demolitions, and dwelling approvals that never make it to completion, at the city level at least the market remains relatively balanced in terms of dwelling supply (at least, for now).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Sydney house prices up 21.9% Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Population growth nationally remains strong but continues to trend lower, meanwhile dwelling construction is booming creating a much closer relationship between housing supply and demand.</p>
<div>
<p>Demographic data for December 2015 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The data showed that the national population was estimated at 23.9 million persons, with the population having increased by 326,073 persons over the 2015 calendar year. The annual increase in population has fallen substantially from a peak of 459,504 persons over the 12 months to December 2008.</p>
<p>While population growth (ie housing demand) has slowed, dwelling construction has increased to record highs. Over the 12 months to December 215, there was a record-high 190,072 dwellings constructed nationally. </p>
<p>With an increasing population, and the majority of growth coming from overseas migration, additional demand for housing is created. The charts published in this report look at the ratio of population growth to dwelling completions.  A few important things to note from this analysis:</p>
<ol>
<li>The figures don’t take into consideration demolitions and homes constructed for non-permanent or semi-permanent occupation (previously estimated by the RBA at approximately 15 percent)</li>
<li>Dwelling completions data may include construction of temporary accommodation such as hotels or serviced apartments</li>
<li>An increase in population doesn’t necessarily create more demand for housing. For example a family having a baby may not create an immediate requirement for more housing while a new arrival from overseas is more likely to create additional housing demand.</li>
</ol>
<p>The latest housing and occupancy costs research from the ABS showed that the average household sizes across each state and territory in June 2014 was: 2.6 persons in NSW, Vic, Qld and ACT, 2.4 persons in SA and Tas and 2.7 persons in WA and NT.</p>
<h3>Ratio of population growth to dwelling completions</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/06/2016-07-04--nsw-qld-image1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><br><img src="/images/2016/07/06/2016-07-04--nsw-qld-image1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/06/2016-7-04--nt_Act-image2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/06/2016-7-04--nt_Act-image2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>If we look at the charts, over 2015 the ratios of population growth to dwelling completions have been recorded at: 2.4 in NSW, 1.9 in Vic, 1.6 in Qld, 1.0 in both SA and WA, 0.8 in Tas, 0.4 in NT and 1.3 in ACT. </p>
<p>Based on these measures compared to the average household size it would appear that each state and territory is currently over-building however, there are some short-comings of this analysis as detailed above.  It is clear that the ratio compared to the long-run average implies that under-building is still taking place in NSW and Vic while over-building is occurring elsewhere.</p>
<p>Additionally, in most states, there has previously been a substantial undersupply of housing which will continue to overhang any overbuilding for a period of time.</p>
<p>Another thing to consider when looking at this analysis is the type of dwellings that are being constructed.  Units are becoming a much more prominent part of dwelling construction.  Units are often smaller and therefore likely to house fewer residents than a detached house which also has an impact on these figures.</p>
<p>Although this analysis doesn’t provide a definitive answer to whether too much construction is taking place it is clear that as population growth has slowed and dwelling construction has ramped-up there is now a much better relationship between housing supply and demand.  This is highlighted by the fact that in most states and territories there has been a sharp decline in the ratio of population growth to dwelling completions over recent years.</p>
<p>With many new dwellings under construction and even more approved to commence construction, developers should take heed of these figures and exercise caution when looking to undertake new projects.  As population growth trends lower and construction ramps up, housing shortages appear to be diminishing quite rapidly.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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