New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

Joel Robinson

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

The long-planned transformation of Brisbane's historic Shafston Estate has taken another major step, with Capella Hotel Group announced as the luxury hospitality partner behind what will become Brisbane's first branded residences.

The project, to be known as Capella Residences Brisbane, is being delivered by Verso Projects at the landmark Kangaroo Point riverfront estate, with completion targeted for 2029.

The announcement follows a series of planning changes to the project over recent years. The site was originally approved in 2023 for a 15-level, 37-apartment development designed by Rothelowman for Burgundy Group before Verso Projects took over the 10,070 sqm riverfront holding and lodged revised plans with Kerry Hill Architects to increase the development to a 25-level tower with 51 apartments.

The latest announcement confirms Capella Hotel Group will bring its branded residential offering to the project, marking just the second Capella Residences development globally after Seoul, and the group's first branded residential project in Australia.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-castlebar-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Castlebar Street development</a> will centre around the restoration of the heritage-listed Shafston House, one of Brisbane's oldest residences, originally constructed in 1851 by Reverend Robert Creyke as a single-storey cottage known as Ravenscott.

<img alt="Capella" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b9f4ce5-638f-4d6b-8082-3ca7e4b75fca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-09%20at%207.20.41%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=f7aeqsW_DzOJI4FymWb3lD8NptSfsP7q" />

Capella said the project aligns with its focus on heritage-led developments, with the Brisbane estate combining the restored historic residence with a new luxury apartment tower and hospitality-inspired resident amenities.

Residents will have access to the Capella Living Room, a concierge-led communal space inspired by the group's luxury hotels, alongside landscaped gardens, six swimming pools, wellness and recreation facilities.

The broader estate will also include two riverfront homes, a six-berth private marina, porte cochère arrival experience, secure basement parking and a new section of public riverwalk along the Brisbane River frontage.

The heritage Postal Depot Building will also be retained and repurposed as a guest house, in line with the revised development plans.

The project represents another evolution for the site, which Kerry Hill Architects previously described as a rare opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's most significant heritage estates while creating a new benchmark for apartment living.

"The Shafston Estate provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's finest heritage precincts and to reinstate residential use as a unique site perched on the edge of Kangaroo Point," Kerry Hill Architects said in its Urban Context Report accompanying the planning submission.

"The project will celebrate excellence in sub-tropical residential design, setting a new benchmark for vertical living in Brisbane."

Verso Projects, which now has an $8.5 billion development pipeline spanning more than 6,000 dwellings across apartments, townhouses, retail and commercial projects, said the partnership with Capella would elevate the development beyond a traditional residential project.

"We feel honoured to be restoring Shafston Estate to its former glory, elevating it to new heights of luxury and excellence underpinned by Capella's distinctive service ethos and design philosophy, and making it a standout landmark in Brisbane," Verso Projects CEO Steve Laffey said.

"By partnering with Capella, globally recognised for its refined approach to luxury hospitality and deep respect for cultural and historical context, we will elevate this project beyond a residential offering into a world-class destination."

Capella Hotel Group President Roland Fasel said Brisbane's emergence as a global city made it the right location for the company's Australian residential debut.

"Brisbane is a city on the cusp of something remarkable, and Capella Residences is our commitment to being part of that story," Fasel said.

"The Capella residential experience is more than luxury. It is about a sense of belonging to a place with deep meaning."

Private appointments have now opened for the project, with a display suite expected to open in late 2026 ahead of the planned 2029 completion.

Capella to launch Brisbane's first branded residences at Shafston House, Kangaroo Point

Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.

The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.

<img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.

"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.

"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.

"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."

<img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" />

Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.

The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.

"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.

"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."

Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.

"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.

"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."

Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a>

The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.

The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.

The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]

Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.

"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.

"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."

Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.

"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.

"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]

Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.

"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.

"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.

"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."

The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.

KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

Residential Market

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As someone allegedly knows something about property, I have to confess I didn't participate in Melbourne's property market through its recent stellar run, having been focused on Sydney, and more lately Brisbane. 
 
At least I won't miss out on Geelong, though.
 
Geelong had always looked to be a likely contender for the ripple effect from Melbourne, being located less than 50 miles from the capital, and being a generally good city in its own right.
 
And then the Labor government more or less nailed it on by announcing a series of measures to stimulate the market.
 
I broke a golden rule of thumb when discussing possible price impacts here when I estimated that median house prices in the city could feasibly rise by 20 to 30 per cent by 2020 (never use numbers; they always go for the numbers...).
 
Somehow, that became a median price of $600,000 ("it's not hard to envision prices in Geelong moving 20 to 30 percent higher by June 2020, particularly in the sub-$600,000 bracket").
 
Anyhoo, the point was that prices could rise as a result of the stimulatory measures, not least because the new legislation doesn't take full effect for months, affording opportunists a free kick at buying before 1 July. 
 
And it looks like prices are teeing off already.
 
Last weekend the auction clearance rate in Geelong moved above 90 percent, the highest regional or non-capital city clearance rate in the country.
 
And there are now regular stories of street records being smoked.
 
This weekend a house that last sold for $310,000 in 2009 sold for an astonishing $836,000 at auction. 
 
It looks like a rocket has been put under house prices in Geelong West.   
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/23/A1.jpg" alt=""> 
All the hallmarks of a nascent boom.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Geelong prices teeing off early

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The Canberra market continues to look stronger and is rising as Sydney is fading.
The ACT took some time to join the party, and its conditions remain somewhat less than a “boom”, but are becoming increasingly buoyant.  All indicators - sales activity, price growth, rental growth and vacancies - indicate a market that’s trending upwards.
Having previously been hampered by downsizing in the public service and a unit oversupply, the Canberra showed signs of rising in 2014, when total residential sales increased to 9,200 from 8,590 the year before. Sales rose further to 9,829 in 2015 and the market has remained busy ever since.
Total residential sales volumes have been rising over the past two years. In 2012, 2013 and most of 2014, every quarter recorded residential sales below 2,300 - but since late 2014 most quarters have been above 2,400 sales.
This has occurred on the back of an improving economy (recently ranked No.2 in the nation behind NSW by CommSec), low unemployment and high average incomes.
The greatest strength has been in the housing market, with sales activity in the apartment market falling away last year.
As a result, the most positive statistics on prices and rents are being seen in the housing market, and much less so in the apartment market.
The latest figures from SQM Research suggest a 13 percent annual rise in house prices and a 4 percent rise of units. CoreLogic’s latest data says houses are up 10 percent and units 7 percent.
The Canberra figures for house price growth are bettered only by Melbourne and Sydney.
The national capital is also the national leader on rental growth, helped by very low vacancy rates. Both SQM and Domain suggest vacancies are consistently around 1percent (only Hobart is lower among the capital cities).
SQM says rents are up 7 percent for houses and 2 percent for units, while Domain reports 6 percent growth for houses and 5 percent for units.
Median rental yields are 4.1 percent for houses (compared to 2.8 percent in Sydney and 2.6 percent in Melbourne) and 5.1 percent for apartments.
Overall, as I have often commented, the standout characteristic of Canberra is the steadiness of its performance. I sometimes refer to it as the Goldilocks of Australian real estate: not too hot, not too cold, just right.
That, plus the low vacancies and the growth numbers now emerging, make the national capital increasingly appealing for investors.
Another predictable factor in the ACT market is the predominance of the northern part of the city in terms of growth markets.
While there are now growth suburbs across the Canberra metropolitan area, the strongest precincts once again are the Belconnen and Gungahlin districts in the north.
In the latest Hotspotting research for The Price Predictor Index, we have identified 18 Canberra suburbs with rising markets and nine of those are in the Belconnen and Gungahlin areas.
Belconnen (six growth suburbs) has taken over from Gungahlin (three) as the clear market leader.
Suburbs with rising markets in the Belconnen District include Flynn, Bruce, Florey, Holt, Macgregor and Evatt. Bruce, where house sales have risen from 38 to 41 to 44 to 54 in the past four consecutive quarters, is typical of the suburbs that are rising.
There are growth markets elsewhere as well, including in the Tuggeranong and Inner South precincts of the city. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

As Sydney market fades Canberra gains strength: Terry Ryder

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Success in real estate belongs to the independent thinkers. And that means the select few.
The most predictable market intelligence of the past few weeks is that consumer sentiment about real estate has weakened.
Given the herd mentality in Australian real estate, and the absence of independent thought and action, I would expect sentiment to mirror media reporting trends. If media keeps reporting that “the Australian property boom” is over, I would expect a survey of public sentiment to reflect that.
And, lately, it has. According to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment, public opinion about whether it’s a good time to buy, and about price expectations, has weakened. This apparent dissipation of confidence has coincided with mainstream media deciding that the new core storyline is that the so-called national property boom is over.
What they really mean is that the Sydney boom is over and that is reflected in the generalised national figures much beloved by lazy journalists.
This new and recurrent theme in mainstream media is now being mirrored in responses to surveys about real estate.
It tells us that the average citizen struggles with independent thought. Most are pack animals and more likely to take action because everyone else is than because it makes sense. 
Sometimes it feels like all Australians are connected to a central brain – and not a particularly smart one, either.
Another recent poll that fits this theme is the NAB’s quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey. The generalised results are that sentiment has weakened and people expect price growth to be less spectacular than the past couple of years.
Significant? Not at all. It’s people parroting what they read in newspapers. Will those expectations be marched by outcomes? No it will not - growth won’t stop, but the focus of growth will switch from Sydney to other areas.
While media focused on this downturn in overall generalised simplified public expectations, without segmenting for local differences of which there are many, there are many other things in the NAB quarterly report that are far more significant. 
These are matters of fact, rather than impressions, expectations or predictions.
The NAB report is one of the few that realistically quantifies buying activity by first-timers. It finds that this market segment has increased recently - 26.2% of sales of established properties are made to first-time buyers, compared to 23.7% in the June Quarter. And 28.9% of sales of new properties are being made to first-time buyers.
The NAB report, unlike other less credible sources like the ABS, takes into account that not all first-timers buy homes. A rising number buy investment properties as a first purchase. According to NAB, 15.7% of established properties and 16.4% of new properties are being sold to first-timers as home-buyers. In addition, 10.5% of established properties and 12.5% of new properties are being sold to first-time buyers as investors.
They’re a big chunk of the market, but for many media outlets it’s an inconvenient truth because it contradicts the beloved storyline about the Great Australian Dream being dead because youngsters are priced out of the market. 
As an aside, research from Mortgage Choice has found that most first-home buyers are comfortable with their mortgages, with almost two-thirds saying they could accommodate interest rate rises of at least two percentage points (a quarter of them could cope with a rise of four points).
The NAB report also provides a good snapshot of the activity of foreign investors. It shows that overall they remain quite insignificant as a share of the overall market. They are most active in buying new property, where they account for 16% of sales.
They are most prominent, and this tells its own tale, in the apartment market, especially in Victoria (which means inner-city Melbourne). In Victoria, foreign buyers account for almost a third of all new unit sales. 
It confirms that developers are flooding inner-city apartment markets with new product because they believe they can sell any surplus stock overseas (which means Asia, especially China and Hong Kong). 
Some developers are not bothering to market locally but heading directly overseas to sell their off-the-plan stock.
As time goes by and more projects flood this market, I would expect the foreign purchase component to rise. It’s a warning to Australian investors and home-buyers to steer clear.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
 
 
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A warning to Australian investors and home buyers: Terry Ryder

Does Australia have a greater housing oversupply than the US? Pete Wargent

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Is this quote by Johnny Isakson the perfect property quote – “In the real estate business you learn more about people, and you learn more about community issues, you learn more about life, you learn more about the impact of government, probably than any other profession that I know of.”
Let’s focus on the part of governments in property – more particularly as it relates to Sydney and its many niche property markets. Local governments are being amalgamated so that the NSW government can put on its developer cap and start approving thousands upon thousands of new developments. They identify overseas buyers as the driving force so they then introduce higher duties to get a greater tax grab. The federal government (since December 2008) allows one hundred per cent of all new developments to be sold offshore driving overseas investor demand to levels never seen before – the perfect property storm has been created but who will clean it up?
Firstly, we need to pinpoint when this newly created apartment – a – thon peaked which would be around mid – 2013. Barangaroo was the star attraction with 750 new harbour side apartments that sold in a matter of hours smashing per square metre records. These per square metre rates were then factored into every other new development and the investors came in fast, which in turn led developers to pay record prices for property sites thus creating an insatiable property appetite for investors and property developers.
Then 18 months later the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) on December 9, 2014 tightens lending regulations resulting in higher deposits from investors buying off – the – plan. Although not much was said at the time the investor cracks were starting to appear despite developers and real estate agents buying record amounts of polyfilla. Next in July 2015, APRA announced that the big four banks and Macquarie Bank must hold more capital to provide a buffer against defaults by investors.
In May 2015, then federal treasurer Joe Hockey announced that the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) was being handed full control over all property acquisitions in Australia. This then led to the ATO announcing that every property transaction dating back to 1985 would be recorded and placed on their property register. Foreign investor participation in Australia’s property markets had spiked to $34.7 billion in 2013/14 up from $17.6 billion the previous year, so suspicions were on the rise. I might add that some market commentators (like myself) had been raising concerns well before this.
Who could forget the piece I filed back on 5 March 2015 – Treasurer Joe’s Villa del Nightmare when the ATO announced the first divestiture notice for a $39 million Point Piper mansion that was bought by a foreign buyer without Australian residency. The subject property was then flipped to a friend who just so happened to have an Australian residency and the case was closed – or so we were led to believe.
Last week (a premature announcement broke) –<a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Forms/Foreign-resident-capital-gains-withholding-clearance-certificate-application-instructions/"> Foreign resident capital gains withholding clearance certificate applications</a> would be required for every property in Australia selling above $2 million from 1 July 2016. I was reliably informed that the grand plan is that clearance certificates will apply for every Australian property down the track. Here is the official<a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/uploadedFiles/Content/LB_I/downloads/FRCGW%20-%20clearance%20certificate%20application.pdf"> ATO clearance certificate</a>application from the ATO website.
So does this then take our attention (well mine anyway) to the fact that quite possibly in the very near future the ATO, who have been very quiet of late on all matters pertaining to divestiture notices, may soon have some big announcements? Assuming all those who purchased illegally will not be able to receive a clearance certificate – so the ATO pockets 10 per cent of the selling price from every sale?
The big problem here is that most in the industry knows that the Asian buyers have dropped off significantly, as too the Asian developers. Sydney has approximately 30,000 new apartments nearing completion and how many of those properties will have defaulting buyers? We know what the first market sale price was and nobody can intelligently predict what the second sale price may be. Guesstimates range from a 10 to 50 per cent correction depending on the volume of property coming on to the market, and rest assured you can no longer apply the Barangaroo square metre rate set back in mid – 2013.
If these defaults do happen and the second sales prices are well below the initial selling price this will then throw all the thousands and thousands of off – the – plan sales into complete chaos. Then all the future developments are shelved given these once strong markets have disappeared. Councils have been merged so what then happens to that grand plan of high density future developments?
Sydney for a few years now has been showing clear signs of investor growing pains. Although this time around the vast majority of these new developments are still a way off completion. If we go by past markets the banks are about to become reluctant property owners – so what’s the plan?
Sadly, there is no plan – just cross your fingers and hope that level heads prevail. Quite fascinating that with all these massive high – density developments that in this day and age we still don’t have a governing body regulating Australian property markets.
I get that feeling that we will need more than an umbrella.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 68
Number of houses on the market last week – 55
Number of houses on the market this week – 51
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 46
Number of apartments on the market last week – 50
Number of apartments on the market this week – 42
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
Number of houses on the market last week – 11
Number of houses on the market this week – 10
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 13
Number of apartments on the market last week – 22
Number of apartments on the market this week – 18
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
Number of houses on the market last week – 8
Number of houses on the market this week – 8
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 26
Number of apartments on the market last week – 22
Number of apartments on the market this week – 20
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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The property storm Sydney had to have: Robert Simeon

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<div>I recently visited the wildlife sanctuary at Currumbin, and it occurred to me that without the scores of Chinese visitors in attendance on the day, the place would have been four-fifths empty!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As it was the attraction was absolutely packed to the rafters with camera-toting tourists. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's a trend that is being reflected right across Australia, with the number of visitors from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong continuing to multiply at a record pace. That's just one part of the Asian century story for Australasia. Meanwhile, a recently released report on global migration of the super-wealthy found that the two most popular cities in the world for net inflow of millionaires in 2015 were Sydney (4,000) and Melbourne (3,000). Australia is becoming a playground for wealthy Asians. As noted in these pages many months ago, though, perhaps the most significant change for Australia will be the record boom in international students, since this will in turn lead to higher permanent residency uptake. The government has announced that from 1 July 2016 - just a few weeks away - that there will be a series of important changes to the student visa programme. There will now only be one visa class only for international students, subclass 500, and under the new streamlined process three quarters of applications will be waved through in less than one month. International students with the requisite funds or income and English language skills will be able to apply for the new visa, including Primary School student applicants (from the age 6 or above) and their guardians or family members. This represents a very significant shift in policy. The rules have also been relaxed with regards to course duration and immigration risk assessment. As a result of the new changes, there could potentially be a huge increase in the number of Primary School age Chinese students and their guardians, with many ultimately going on to become Australian citizens. With a combined population of about 2.7 billion or so, there is boundless potential for uptake from China and India in particular.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Immigration eases</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures figures to April 2016 rolling annual number of net permanent and long arrivals eased to +270,200, the lowest number since May 2007. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/06/07/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/06/07/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>The impact of this will mainly be felt in regional Australia and in resources regions, with population growth in the largest cities continuing to expand at around 80,000 to 90,000 per annum. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some 59 percent of permanent settlers hailed from Asia in the year to April, with the volumes arriving from New Zealand and Britain having slowed markedly.</div>
 <a href="/images/2016/06/07/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/06/07/A3.jpg" alt=""> <div>Rebalancing continues</div>
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<div>The lower dollar continues to drive tourist and other short term arrivals to record highs, with the 7.69 million short term arrivals over the past year being a punchy 9 per cent increase from April 2015.</div>
 <a href="/images/2016/06/07/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<img src="/images/2016/06/07/A4.jpg" alt=""> <div>Most notably, the number of visitors from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong continues to multiply at an extraordinary rate, up by a tub-thumping 21.2 per cent over the year to 1.49 million. The compounding effect of such a growth rate implies a doubling of that number within 3.5 years. Incredible stuff.</div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/06/07/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/06/07/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>Most short term arrivals come for holidays (3.79 million), but more than 2 million now cite their main reason for travel as being visiting friends and family, thereby reinforcing the Asian connections. 
</div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/06/07/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/06/07/A6.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>After a rare blip last month, the number of education arrivals is now on the march again, with the 489,900 arrivals over the past year representing a romping increase of 17 per cent. And thanks to the streamlining of visa rules from 1 July 2016 the number of international students will likely begin to flow freely more or less in perpetuity.</div>
 <a href="/images/2016/06/07/A2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<div class="post-body entry-content">
 <img src="/images/2016/06/07/A2-1.jpg" alt=""> This is another trend which is largely driven by China and India, and it is also heavily focussed upon the largest capital cities.  <div> </div>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The significance of the unprecedented boom in Chinese tourism and students seems largely to be lost in the popular narrative, which continues to discuss economic malaise when the economy is growing at a faster pace than even the most bullish of commentators expected (an annualised pace of 3.6 per cent in the last six months reported).</div>
<div>
 It is true that net exports are leading growth, and certainly there has been concentration risk aplenty, but the international trade data confirmed that the pace of education, tourism and other services exports to China and other parts of Asia is accelerating.</div>
<div>
 No doubt there will be the usual shrill complaints from the anti-immigration lobby about the streamlining of entry rules for international students, but overall this should be be a material boost for the Australian economy - and indeed for the beleaguered new apartment market.  
</div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
<div> </div>
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New student visa rules set to boost property markets: Pete Wargent

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If you looked only at the generalised data excreted by research company computers, you’d think not much is going on in Adelaide.
According to one set of figures, house values are up 3.9 percent in annual terms and units 3.6 percent. But Adelaide is busier and more vibrant than those numbers indicate, particularly when you look at sales activity.
Adelaide started 2016 in solid fashion and continues to be one of the strongest city markets in the nation. The steady start to the year is encouraging, given that the March Quarter is typically the period that produces the smallest number of sales in the South Australian market.
Adelaide currently has more suburbs with rising sales momentum than Brisbane does, although it’s a smaller city, and considerably more than Sydney now does.
Generally, Adelaide had a solid year in 2015. Each of the four quarters had sales activity on a par with, or higher than, the corresponding period a year earlier. The June and September quarters were both substantially higher than the year before.
This continues a pattern of steadily rising sales over the past three years. In 2013 the SA market recorded between 7,000 and 7,500 dwelling sales per quarter. In 2014 sales rose above 8,000 per quarter and in 2015 every quarter was above 9,000 sales. The current year looks like continuing the pattern.
Our research for The Price Predictor Index shows that the growth suburbs in Adelaide are primarily middle-market areas and outer-ring precincts, with few top-end markets standing out.
The No.1 municipality is now the Port Adelaide Enfield LGA, one of the largest municipalities in Adelaide, covering the inner north and north-west of the city. Eight suburbs in this LGA having rising sales patterns, mostly suburbs with median house prices in the range from $380,000 to $510,000. They include Broadview, Northgate, Windsor Gardens and Largs Bay.
The Onkaparinga LGA, which always features as one of the strongest markets, has six growthsuburbs and six markets with steady sales activity in the far south of the Adelaide metropolitan area.
Many of the more active precincts are middle-market areas. The Charles Sturt LGA, which includes bayside suburbs like Henley Beach and West Beach, has seven suburbs with upward momentum. Growth markets include Findon, Kidman Park, Seaton and Semaphore Park.
The Tea Tree Gully LGA in the north-eastern suburbs stands out in most of our surveys as a highly consistent market. It now has six suburbs with steady sales patterns, plus five that are rising– including Hope Valley, Modbury and Ridgehaven.
The Holdfast Bay LGA has four Rising Steadily markets, including the bayside Glenelg suburbs and Somerton Park.
Another thing worth considering about Adelaide is the rental yields on offer. With negative gearing in the firing line in this long and boring Election campaign, cities that can offer higher rental yields become more appealing. If you borrow at 4 percent to buy a property returning 6 percent, negative gearing becomes a non-issue.
The cheaper precincts in the Adelaide metropolitan area provide houses with median yields between 6 percent and 7 percent. Areas that are slightly more expensive typically have yields in the 5.5 percent to 6 percent range.
 Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Adelaide tops Brisbane for property sales momentum: Terry Ryder

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There’s been a lot of discussion about a resurgence in Sydney prices, but I’m not believing it.
The talk is based primarily on one month’s figures from one source, which suggested a significant rise in Sydney house prices in May.
People are so willing to blindly accept the figures pumped out by research companies. One international ratings agency rushed out a new assessment of the Australian residential market, complete with dire warnings, based on that one figure – apparently oblivious to the frequent statistical aberrations in price data for short time periods. 
Those figures for May presented a large number of very strange results. For example, are we seriously expected to believe that Hobart apartment values rose 8.4% in a single month? Or that Darwin apartment values declined 10 percent in May? Or that, in sharp contrast, Darwin house prices surged 3.5 percent in May? Or that unit prices dropped 6% in a month in both Canberra and Perth? Or that house values in Sydney suddenly turned around and jumped 3.6 percent in May?
The absurd nature on some of these numbers shows how rubbery real estate figures can be, especially when you’re dealing with month-to-month changes, which are notoriously erratic and essentially meaningless.
The Sydney figure was particularly strange because there has been a major drop-off in sales activity this year. Sales volumes have been trending steadily downwards since the end of 2014 in fact, but it’s been particularly pronounced in 2016 – and exacerbated recently by the calling of a federal election, which always causes consumers to stop dead with their decision-making and action-taking.
The thing is: all other price data, including the March Quarter figures from the ABS, has been recording a contraction of Sydney price growth, which is exactly what I would expect. It’s extremely rare in housing markets for prices to keep rising when there’s a significant decline in sales activity.
Hotspotting research for The Price Predictor Index finds not a single growth market in the Sydney metropolitan area, which contains over 700 suburbs. Many suburbs are in steady decline.
An example is Auburn (median house price $835,000, down 1.7 percent in the three months to April, according to Australian Property Monitors), where there were over 200 sales per quarter in late 2013, dropping to 170 in late 2014, 100 late in 2015 and now 75 per quarter.
Likewise, Bankstown ($840,000, down 2.7 percent percent in three months) was recording over 200 sales per quarter late in 2013, but numbers have fallen steadily to 95 per quarter late in 2015 and 80 per quarter in 2016.
Sales in Breakfast Point (median unit price $1.06 million, down 4.9 percent in three months) have fallen from 110 to 88 to 70 to 43 to 33 to 26 in consecutive quarters. 
In Cammeray (median house price $1.7 million, down 10.6 percent in three months), sales have dropped from 58 to 54 to 46 to 37 to 30 to 26 since late 2014. In Fairfield ($720,000, down 2 percent in three months) sales in the past four quarters have been 107, 77, 56 and 35. In Pymble ($2.05 million, down 3.3 percent in three months) sales levels have dropped from 112 to 99 to 71 to 64 to 39 in the past five quarters.
Unit sales in CBD fringe suburb of Haymarket (median unit price $895,000, down 1.8 percent in three months) have dropped from 77 to 57 to 39 to 24 to 9.
In Parramatta ($565,000, down 1 percent) unit sales have declined from 172 to 165 to 107 to 95 in the past four quarters, while in Potts Point ($710,000, down 4.3 percent), unit sales have dropped from 110 to 66 to 47 in consecutive quarters.
There are myriad other examples, all charting the same pattern of decline in sales volumes, with prices starting to follow.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Not a single growth market in the Sydney metropolitan area: Terry Ryder

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Today I met with two of my lovely clients to celebrate the completion of their dual occupancy project. Friends Karen and Katie decided to do a joint venture (JV) with the goal of each ending up with a villa after subdivision.
The ladies were not new to property, they both own their own homes and at times an investment property or two but as corporate business women were understandably time poor.  Their goal was to build their property portfolio and share the experience of their first development.  By working together, they would have each other to bounce off any worries and fears as well as celebrate the major milestones.
Their JV worked like a dream as they each brought a different skill set to the project with Karen being focussed on fine detail and Katie on big picture.
"The one thing we didn't want was the development project and JV to impact on our friendship" Katie explained. 
Karen found that it was easier and less stressful going into the JV and her first development project than it was buying her first pre-built investment property.  “Katie and I trusted each other implicitly and we trusted Property Bloom’s experience” Karen said, “and that trust was proven true.  Without exception Property Bloom took care of all the details, keeping everything on track”.
Karen and Katie’s project commenced in October 2014 and was completed within fourteen months.
The moment the land was secured Property Bloom began the DA approval process enabling the DA to be lodged before settlement on the land.  There is a lot of work involved in getting a DA prepared -  detailed survey, geotechnical report and engineering just to get the plans finalised before then organising the Statement of Environmental Effects, Basix report, Bushfire report and plans and external materials and colours to be approved by the land developer. 
But that was the easy part.  The bigger challenge was getting the actual approval from Council!
Now, admittedly, Christmas did fall whilst the DA was in council so that didn’t help but we were surprised after so many weeks of processing and with the DA approval just within in our grasp (or so we thought) that the town planner then demanded a change to the entire roof design.  This involved changes to the engineer's drainage plan as well so it was not a small change.  We were furious with the lack of consistency as a previous and very similar DA sailed through council without this change request.
Once we had the DA approval in our hands we handed over the Construction Certificate approval to our private certifier who is markedly faster than council. There was no further hold ups and construction commenced in July 2015.
By Christmas 2015, less than 6 months later, the project was completed!
The villas came up beautifully and were quickly leased at a good rent with the ladies enjoying close to a 7% gross yield and very pleased with the equity created.
But that wasn’t the end of it.  The final, and biggest decision of all was……. how to divide the villas? Who would end up with which one?
 The villas were almost identical in size but to keep them unique they had different floor plans, different front facades and internal finishes and slightly different private outdoor space sizes.  After some discussion and internal agonising, it was decided that a flip of a coin would determine the outcome.  Let fate decide!  So in a nail salon Katie and Karen stood watching as a stranger they'd asked, flipped a coin into the air.
The villas will be split by way of a Deed of Partition which is a great way for joint venture partners to work together and then end up with a property each. Talk to your solicitor about how this is managed as you must ensure the Deed is formed before the subdivision of the villas is registered.
“The best things we liked about this project were the ease with which it was executed and the stunning look of the finished villas which we could easily imagine living in ourselves”, said Karen.   “All the details were managed by Property Bloom.  “I was doing an extension on my home at the same time and the stress I went through in organising that project was divorce material…. almost.  In comparison, the development of our villas happened in the background, any stresses and concerns absorbed by Jo and her team.  And the best part is that my friendship with Katie has never been stronger, our trust in each other proven.”
 
Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.
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Developing property and friendships: Jo Chivers

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The Hobart housing market has been the nation’s weakest performing capital city housing market for more than a decade.
There are now signs that the Hobart (and Tasmania’s) housing market may be in line for a steady improvement.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-1-2-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-1-2-580x208.jpg" alt="">
Over the 12 months to March 2016, home values in Hobart have increased by 4.8 percent while over the past two years values are only 4.5 percent higher highlighting that the value growth performance has been much stronger over the past year relative to the previous year.
The above chart shows the annual change in home values across all capital cities, with Hobart and the combined capital cities highlighted and the other cities in grey.  Although Hobart values have increased over the past year, the recent rise must be put in context, over the past decade home values in Hobart have increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent with values falling at an annual rate of -0.7 percent over the past five years.  Hobart’s decade growth performance is well behind Perth which has recorded the second lowest annual rate of growth over the period at 3.1 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-2-2-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-2-2-580x207.jpg" alt="">
It is interesting to look at the performance of the Hobart housing market in context with the performance of the Melbourne market. The previous chart shows that in 2003 and 2004 home value growth in Hobart surged. The rate of growth reached a peak of 57.9 percent annual growth in November 2003 and very shortly thereafter the growth performance in Hobart stalled and has been limited ever since.
The surge in Hobart dwellings came following a surge in Melbourne home values and at a similar time to which the rate of growth in Melbourne values began to slow.  Ever since the end of the last surge in home values in Hobart, Melbourne has recorded strong rises in home values while growth in Hobart has been minimal.
Melbourne has obviously recently seen a large surge in home values meaning that many home owners have substantial levels of equity in their property. Investment in the Tasmanian housing market which offers much lower home values and superior yields may be looking attractive for those in Melbourne looking for a lifestyle investment.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-3-2-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-3-2-580x207.jpg" alt="">
While value growth in Hobart is picking up, transaction volumes are relatively steady from where they were at the end of last year and virtually unchanged from a year ago.  In comparison, most other capital city housing markets are actually recording fewer property transactions than they were a year ago.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-4-2-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-4-2-580x206.jpg" alt="">
Looking at the current market, listings provides one of the best guides about the balance between buyers and sellers.  As listings move lower, buyers have less choice and vendors can be less flexible on their price expectations which can push values higher.  Over the 28 days to 17 April 2016 there were 376 newly advertised properties added to the Hobart housing market and 2,189 total property listings. 
New listings are 1.3 percent higher than they were a year ago and fairly flat over recent weeks.  Meanwhile, total listings are -26.2 percent lower than they were a year ago and as the table shows they are trending lower.  In fact, the number of listings is at its lowest level since October 2010.  With new listings slightly higher than a year ago and total listing much lower it suggests that there is limited new supply coming to the market with increasing demand which is causing total listing volumes to trend much lower.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-5-2-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-5-2-580x210.jpg" alt="">
One of the main drivers of the surge in Hobart home values in 2003 and 2004 was the positive migration trends for Tasmania.  The above table shows that in 2003 and early 2004 both net overseas and net interstate migration were positive.  The chart also shows that typically there is an outflow of residents of Tasmania to other states and territories while net overseas migration is usually positive.  Over the past few quarters, for the first time in a number of years, net interstate migration to Tasmania has been positive.  It is still early days but should this trend continue over the coming quarters it could be a positive for the Tasmania housing market.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-6-1-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-6-1-580x208.jpg" alt="">
People will generally only move to a new region if they are reasonably comfortable that they can find employment.  The unemployment rate in Tasmania has ticked up over recent months and job creation has slowed which may act as a deterrent to make the move to a market like Hobart.  However, if we look at 2003 and 2004 when home values were surging and migration to Tasmania was quite strong, job creation was stronger although the unemployment rate was in the high 6% to low 7% range compared to a similar 6.9% currently.  Keep in mind that some people will move to Tasmania and Hobart as a lifestyle choice so they may be able to do their current job remotely or may commute back to the mainland a few days a week / each month.  Furthermore, a proportion of people that move interstate would be retirees and therefore their decision is not reliant upon securing employment.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-7-1-580x213.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-7-1-580x213.jpg" alt="">
Tourism is likely to be a growing source of employment for those living in Tasmania.  According to data from Tourism Research Australia, international visitor numbers to Tasmania increased by 19.6 percent in 2015 and have increased by 53 percent over the past five years. Meanwhile, domestic overnight trips to Tasmania increased by 17.3 percent in 2015 and have increased by 40 percent over the past five years.  Should the ramp-up in tourism continue it will create even more employment opportunities in the local economy.
When you look at the housing and economic indicators for Hobart it looks like the market is well positioned to see an increase in the rate of housing demand and subsequently home values over the coming year.  Of course Hobart also has the advantage of being a substantially more affordable housing market than all of the other capital cities.  Any of these indicators could change and most importantly if job creation picked up pace and the unemployment rate fell it would provide further positives for the local market.  Nevertheless, it looks as if the fundamentals are in place for a long-awaited improvement in value growth for the Hobart housing market.
 Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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