<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

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The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

Residential Market

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As someone allegedly knows something about property, I have to confess I didn't participate in Melbourne's property market through its recent stellar run, having been focused on Sydney, and more lately Brisbane. 
 
At least I won't miss out on Geelong, though.
 
Geelong had always looked to be a likely contender for the ripple effect from Melbourne, being located less than 50 miles from the capital, and being a generally good city in its own right.
 
And then the Labor government more or less nailed it on by announcing a series of measures to stimulate the market.
 
I broke a golden rule of thumb when discussing possible price impacts here when I estimated that median house prices in the city could feasibly rise by 20 to 30 per cent by 2020 (never use numbers; they always go for the numbers...).
 
Somehow, that became a median price of $600,000 ("it's not hard to envision prices in Geelong moving 20 to 30 percent higher by June 2020, particularly in the sub-$600,000 bracket").
 
Anyhoo, the point was that prices could rise as a result of the stimulatory measures, not least because the new legislation doesn't take full effect for months, affording opportunists a free kick at buying before 1 July. 
 
And it looks like prices are teeing off already.
 
Last weekend the auction clearance rate in Geelong moved above 90 percent, the highest regional or non-capital city clearance rate in the country.
 
And there are now regular stories of street records being smoked.
 
This weekend a house that last sold for $310,000 in 2009 sold for an astonishing $836,000 at auction. 
 
It looks like a rocket has been put under house prices in Geelong West.   
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/23/A1.jpg" alt=""> 
All the hallmarks of a nascent boom.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Geelong prices teeing off early

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The Canberra market continues to look stronger and is rising as Sydney is fading.
The ACT took some time to join the party, and its conditions remain somewhat less than a “boom”, but are becoming increasingly buoyant.  All indicators - sales activity, price growth, rental growth and vacancies - indicate a market that’s trending upwards.
Having previously been hampered by downsizing in the public service and a unit oversupply, the Canberra showed signs of rising in 2014, when total residential sales increased to 9,200 from 8,590 the year before. Sales rose further to 9,829 in 2015 and the market has remained busy ever since.
Total residential sales volumes have been rising over the past two years. In 2012, 2013 and most of 2014, every quarter recorded residential sales below 2,300 - but since late 2014 most quarters have been above 2,400 sales.
This has occurred on the back of an improving economy (recently ranked No.2 in the nation behind NSW by CommSec), low unemployment and high average incomes.
The greatest strength has been in the housing market, with sales activity in the apartment market falling away last year.
As a result, the most positive statistics on prices and rents are being seen in the housing market, and much less so in the apartment market.
The latest figures from SQM Research suggest a 13 percent annual rise in house prices and a 4 percent rise of units. CoreLogic’s latest data says houses are up 10 percent and units 7 percent.
The Canberra figures for house price growth are bettered only by Melbourne and Sydney.
The national capital is also the national leader on rental growth, helped by very low vacancy rates. Both SQM and Domain suggest vacancies are consistently around 1percent (only Hobart is lower among the capital cities).
SQM says rents are up 7 percent for houses and 2 percent for units, while Domain reports 6 percent growth for houses and 5 percent for units.
Median rental yields are 4.1 percent for houses (compared to 2.8 percent in Sydney and 2.6 percent in Melbourne) and 5.1 percent for apartments.
Overall, as I have often commented, the standout characteristic of Canberra is the steadiness of its performance. I sometimes refer to it as the Goldilocks of Australian real estate: not too hot, not too cold, just right.
That, plus the low vacancies and the growth numbers now emerging, make the national capital increasingly appealing for investors.
Another predictable factor in the ACT market is the predominance of the northern part of the city in terms of growth markets.
While there are now growth suburbs across the Canberra metropolitan area, the strongest precincts once again are the Belconnen and Gungahlin districts in the north.
In the latest Hotspotting research for The Price Predictor Index, we have identified 18 Canberra suburbs with rising markets and nine of those are in the Belconnen and Gungahlin areas.
Belconnen (six growth suburbs) has taken over from Gungahlin (three) as the clear market leader.
Suburbs with rising markets in the Belconnen District include Flynn, Bruce, Florey, Holt, Macgregor and Evatt. Bruce, where house sales have risen from 38 to 41 to 44 to 54 in the past four consecutive quarters, is typical of the suburbs that are rising.
There are growth markets elsewhere as well, including in the Tuggeranong and Inner South precincts of the city. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

As Sydney market fades Canberra gains strength: Terry Ryder

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Success in real estate belongs to the independent thinkers. And that means the select few.
The most predictable market intelligence of the past few weeks is that consumer sentiment about real estate has weakened.
Given the herd mentality in Australian real estate, and the absence of independent thought and action, I would expect sentiment to mirror media reporting trends. If media keeps reporting that “the Australian property boom” is over, I would expect a survey of public sentiment to reflect that.
And, lately, it has. According to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment, public opinion about whether it’s a good time to buy, and about price expectations, has weakened. This apparent dissipation of confidence has coincided with mainstream media deciding that the new core storyline is that the so-called national property boom is over.
What they really mean is that the Sydney boom is over and that is reflected in the generalised national figures much beloved by lazy journalists.
This new and recurrent theme in mainstream media is now being mirrored in responses to surveys about real estate.
It tells us that the average citizen struggles with independent thought. Most are pack animals and more likely to take action because everyone else is than because it makes sense. 
Sometimes it feels like all Australians are connected to a central brain – and not a particularly smart one, either.
Another recent poll that fits this theme is the NAB’s quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey. The generalised results are that sentiment has weakened and people expect price growth to be less spectacular than the past couple of years.
Significant? Not at all. It’s people parroting what they read in newspapers. Will those expectations be marched by outcomes? No it will not - growth won’t stop, but the focus of growth will switch from Sydney to other areas.
While media focused on this downturn in overall generalised simplified public expectations, without segmenting for local differences of which there are many, there are many other things in the NAB quarterly report that are far more significant. 
These are matters of fact, rather than impressions, expectations or predictions.
The NAB report is one of the few that realistically quantifies buying activity by first-timers. It finds that this market segment has increased recently - 26.2% of sales of established properties are made to first-time buyers, compared to 23.7% in the June Quarter. And 28.9% of sales of new properties are being made to first-time buyers.
The NAB report, unlike other less credible sources like the ABS, takes into account that not all first-timers buy homes. A rising number buy investment properties as a first purchase. According to NAB, 15.7% of established properties and 16.4% of new properties are being sold to first-timers as home-buyers. In addition, 10.5% of established properties and 12.5% of new properties are being sold to first-time buyers as investors.
They’re a big chunk of the market, but for many media outlets it’s an inconvenient truth because it contradicts the beloved storyline about the Great Australian Dream being dead because youngsters are priced out of the market. 
As an aside, research from Mortgage Choice has found that most first-home buyers are comfortable with their mortgages, with almost two-thirds saying they could accommodate interest rate rises of at least two percentage points (a quarter of them could cope with a rise of four points).
The NAB report also provides a good snapshot of the activity of foreign investors. It shows that overall they remain quite insignificant as a share of the overall market. They are most active in buying new property, where they account for 16% of sales.
They are most prominent, and this tells its own tale, in the apartment market, especially in Victoria (which means inner-city Melbourne). In Victoria, foreign buyers account for almost a third of all new unit sales. 
It confirms that developers are flooding inner-city apartment markets with new product because they believe they can sell any surplus stock overseas (which means Asia, especially China and Hong Kong). 
Some developers are not bothering to market locally but heading directly overseas to sell their off-the-plan stock.
As time goes by and more projects flood this market, I would expect the foreign purchase component to rise. It’s a warning to Australian investors and home-buyers to steer clear.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
 
 
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A warning to Australian investors and home buyers: Terry Ryder

Does Australia have a greater housing oversupply than the US? Pete Wargent

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Is this quote by Johnny Isakson the perfect property quote – “In the real estate business you learn more about people, and you learn more about community issues, you learn more about life, you learn more about the impact of government, probably than any other profession that I know of.”
Let’s focus on the part of governments in property – more particularly as it relates to Sydney and its many niche property markets. Local governments are being amalgamated so that the NSW government can put on its developer cap and start approving thousands upon thousands of new developments. They identify overseas buyers as the driving force so they then introduce higher duties to get a greater tax grab. The federal government (since December 2008) allows one hundred per cent of all new developments to be sold offshore driving overseas investor demand to levels never seen before – the perfect property storm has been created but who will clean it up?
Firstly, we need to pinpoint when this newly created apartment – a – thon peaked which would be around mid – 2013. Barangaroo was the star attraction with 750 new harbour side apartments that sold in a matter of hours smashing per square metre records. These per square metre rates were then factored into every other new development and the investors came in fast, which in turn led developers to pay record prices for property sites thus creating an insatiable property appetite for investors and property developers.
Then 18 months later the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) on December 9, 2014 tightens lending regulations resulting in higher deposits from investors buying off – the – plan. Although not much was said at the time the investor cracks were starting to appear despite developers and real estate agents buying record amounts of polyfilla. Next in July 2015, APRA announced that the big four banks and Macquarie Bank must hold more capital to provide a buffer against defaults by investors.
In May 2015, then federal treasurer Joe Hockey announced that the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) was being handed full control over all property acquisitions in Australia. This then led to the ATO announcing that every property transaction dating back to 1985 would be recorded and placed on their property register. Foreign investor participation in Australia’s property markets had spiked to $34.7 billion in 2013/14 up from $17.6 billion the previous year, so suspicions were on the rise. I might add that some market commentators (like myself) had been raising concerns well before this.
Who could forget the piece I filed back on 5 March 2015 – Treasurer Joe’s Villa del Nightmare when the ATO announced the first divestiture notice for a $39 million Point Piper mansion that was bought by a foreign buyer without Australian residency. The subject property was then flipped to a friend who just so happened to have an Australian residency and the case was closed – or so we were led to believe.
Last week (a premature announcement broke) –<a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Forms/Foreign-resident-capital-gains-withholding-clearance-certificate-application-instructions/"> Foreign resident capital gains withholding clearance certificate applications</a> would be required for every property in Australia selling above $2 million from 1 July 2016. I was reliably informed that the grand plan is that clearance certificates will apply for every Australian property down the track. Here is the official<a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/uploadedFiles/Content/LB_I/downloads/FRCGW%20-%20clearance%20certificate%20application.pdf"> ATO clearance certificate</a>application from the ATO website.
So does this then take our attention (well mine anyway) to the fact that quite possibly in the very near future the ATO, who have been very quiet of late on all matters pertaining to divestiture notices, may soon have some big announcements? Assuming all those who purchased illegally will not be able to receive a clearance certificate – so the ATO pockets 10 per cent of the selling price from every sale?
The big problem here is that most in the industry knows that the Asian buyers have dropped off significantly, as too the Asian developers. Sydney has approximately 30,000 new apartments nearing completion and how many of those properties will have defaulting buyers? We know what the first market sale price was and nobody can intelligently predict what the second sale price may be. Guesstimates range from a 10 to 50 per cent correction depending on the volume of property coming on to the market, and rest assured you can no longer apply the Barangaroo square metre rate set back in mid – 2013.
If these defaults do happen and the second sales prices are well below the initial selling price this will then throw all the thousands and thousands of off – the – plan sales into complete chaos. Then all the future developments are shelved given these once strong markets have disappeared. Councils have been merged so what then happens to that grand plan of high density future developments?
Sydney for a few years now has been showing clear signs of investor growing pains. Although this time around the vast majority of these new developments are still a way off completion. If we go by past markets the banks are about to become reluctant property owners – so what’s the plan?
Sadly, there is no plan – just cross your fingers and hope that level heads prevail. Quite fascinating that with all these massive high – density developments that in this day and age we still don’t have a governing body regulating Australian property markets.
I get that feeling that we will need more than an umbrella.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 68
Number of houses on the market last week – 55
Number of houses on the market this week – 51
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 46
Number of apartments on the market last week – 50
Number of apartments on the market this week – 42
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
Number of houses on the market last week – 11
Number of houses on the market this week – 10
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 13
Number of apartments on the market last week – 22
Number of apartments on the market this week – 18
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
Number of houses on the market last week – 8
Number of houses on the market this week – 8
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 26
Number of apartments on the market last week – 22
Number of apartments on the market this week – 20
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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The property storm Sydney had to have: Robert Simeon

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<div>I recently visited the wildlife sanctuary at Currumbin, and it occurred to me that without the scores of Chinese visitors in attendance on the day, the place would have been four-fifths empty!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As it was the attraction was absolutely packed to the rafters with camera-toting tourists. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's a trend that is being reflected right across Australia, with the number of visitors from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong continuing to multiply at a record pace. That's just one part of the Asian century story for Australasia. Meanwhile, a recently released report on global migration of the super-wealthy found that the two most popular cities in the world for net inflow of millionaires in 2015 were Sydney (4,000) and Melbourne (3,000). Australia is becoming a playground for wealthy Asians. As noted in these pages many months ago, though, perhaps the most significant change for Australia will be the record boom in international students, since this will in turn lead to higher permanent residency uptake. The government has announced that from 1 July 2016 - just a few weeks away - that there will be a series of important changes to the student visa programme. There will now only be one visa class only for international students, subclass 500, and under the new streamlined process three quarters of applications will be waved through in less than one month. International students with the requisite funds or income and English language skills will be able to apply for the new visa, including Primary School student applicants (from the age 6 or above) and their guardians or family members. This represents a very significant shift in policy. The rules have also been relaxed with regards to course duration and immigration risk assessment. As a result of the new changes, there could potentially be a huge increase in the number of Primary School age Chinese students and their guardians, with many ultimately going on to become Australian citizens. With a combined population of about 2.7 billion or so, there is boundless potential for uptake from China and India in particular.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Immigration eases</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures figures to April 2016 rolling annual number of net permanent and long arrivals eased to +270,200, the lowest number since May 2007. </div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/06/07/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>The impact of this will mainly be felt in regional Australia and in resources regions, with population growth in the largest cities continuing to expand at around 80,000 to 90,000 per annum. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some 59 percent of permanent settlers hailed from Asia in the year to April, with the volumes arriving from New Zealand and Britain having slowed markedly.</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/06/07/A3.jpg" alt=""> <div>Rebalancing continues</div>
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<div>The lower dollar continues to drive tourist and other short term arrivals to record highs, with the 7.69 million short term arrivals over the past year being a punchy 9 per cent increase from April 2015.</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/06/07/A4.jpg" alt=""> <div>Most notably, the number of visitors from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong continues to multiply at an extraordinary rate, up by a tub-thumping 21.2 per cent over the year to 1.49 million. The compounding effect of such a growth rate implies a doubling of that number within 3.5 years. Incredible stuff.</div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/06/07/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>Most short term arrivals come for holidays (3.79 million), but more than 2 million now cite their main reason for travel as being visiting friends and family, thereby reinforcing the Asian connections. 
</div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/06/07/A6.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>After a rare blip last month, the number of education arrivals is now on the march again, with the 489,900 arrivals over the past year representing a romping increase of 17 per cent. And thanks to the streamlining of visa rules from 1 July 2016 the number of international students will likely begin to flow freely more or less in perpetuity.</div>
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<div class="post-body entry-content">
 <img src="/images/2016/06/07/A2-1.jpg" alt=""> This is another trend which is largely driven by China and India, and it is also heavily focussed upon the largest capital cities.  <div> </div>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The significance of the unprecedented boom in Chinese tourism and students seems largely to be lost in the popular narrative, which continues to discuss economic malaise when the economy is growing at a faster pace than even the most bullish of commentators expected (an annualised pace of 3.6 per cent in the last six months reported).</div>
<div>
 It is true that net exports are leading growth, and certainly there has been concentration risk aplenty, but the international trade data confirmed that the pace of education, tourism and other services exports to China and other parts of Asia is accelerating.</div>
<div>
 No doubt there will be the usual shrill complaints from the anti-immigration lobby about the streamlining of entry rules for international students, but overall this should be be a material boost for the Australian economy - and indeed for the beleaguered new apartment market.  
</div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
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New student visa rules set to boost property markets: Pete Wargent

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If you looked only at the generalised data excreted by research company computers, you’d think not much is going on in Adelaide.
According to one set of figures, house values are up 3.9 percent in annual terms and units 3.6 percent. But Adelaide is busier and more vibrant than those numbers indicate, particularly when you look at sales activity.
Adelaide started 2016 in solid fashion and continues to be one of the strongest city markets in the nation. The steady start to the year is encouraging, given that the March Quarter is typically the period that produces the smallest number of sales in the South Australian market.
Adelaide currently has more suburbs with rising sales momentum than Brisbane does, although it’s a smaller city, and considerably more than Sydney now does.
Generally, Adelaide had a solid year in 2015. Each of the four quarters had sales activity on a par with, or higher than, the corresponding period a year earlier. The June and September quarters were both substantially higher than the year before.
This continues a pattern of steadily rising sales over the past three years. In 2013 the SA market recorded between 7,000 and 7,500 dwelling sales per quarter. In 2014 sales rose above 8,000 per quarter and in 2015 every quarter was above 9,000 sales. The current year looks like continuing the pattern.
Our research for The Price Predictor Index shows that the growth suburbs in Adelaide are primarily middle-market areas and outer-ring precincts, with few top-end markets standing out.
The No.1 municipality is now the Port Adelaide Enfield LGA, one of the largest municipalities in Adelaide, covering the inner north and north-west of the city. Eight suburbs in this LGA having rising sales patterns, mostly suburbs with median house prices in the range from $380,000 to $510,000. They include Broadview, Northgate, Windsor Gardens and Largs Bay.
The Onkaparinga LGA, which always features as one of the strongest markets, has six growthsuburbs and six markets with steady sales activity in the far south of the Adelaide metropolitan area.
Many of the more active precincts are middle-market areas. The Charles Sturt LGA, which includes bayside suburbs like Henley Beach and West Beach, has seven suburbs with upward momentum. Growth markets include Findon, Kidman Park, Seaton and Semaphore Park.
The Tea Tree Gully LGA in the north-eastern suburbs stands out in most of our surveys as a highly consistent market. It now has six suburbs with steady sales patterns, plus five that are rising– including Hope Valley, Modbury and Ridgehaven.
The Holdfast Bay LGA has four Rising Steadily markets, including the bayside Glenelg suburbs and Somerton Park.
Another thing worth considering about Adelaide is the rental yields on offer. With negative gearing in the firing line in this long and boring Election campaign, cities that can offer higher rental yields become more appealing. If you borrow at 4 percent to buy a property returning 6 percent, negative gearing becomes a non-issue.
The cheaper precincts in the Adelaide metropolitan area provide houses with median yields between 6 percent and 7 percent. Areas that are slightly more expensive typically have yields in the 5.5 percent to 6 percent range.
 Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Adelaide tops Brisbane for property sales momentum: Terry Ryder

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There’s been a lot of discussion about a resurgence in Sydney prices, but I’m not believing it.
The talk is based primarily on one month’s figures from one source, which suggested a significant rise in Sydney house prices in May.
People are so willing to blindly accept the figures pumped out by research companies. One international ratings agency rushed out a new assessment of the Australian residential market, complete with dire warnings, based on that one figure – apparently oblivious to the frequent statistical aberrations in price data for short time periods. 
Those figures for May presented a large number of very strange results. For example, are we seriously expected to believe that Hobart apartment values rose 8.4% in a single month? Or that Darwin apartment values declined 10 percent in May? Or that, in sharp contrast, Darwin house prices surged 3.5 percent in May? Or that unit prices dropped 6% in a month in both Canberra and Perth? Or that house values in Sydney suddenly turned around and jumped 3.6 percent in May?
The absurd nature on some of these numbers shows how rubbery real estate figures can be, especially when you’re dealing with month-to-month changes, which are notoriously erratic and essentially meaningless.
The Sydney figure was particularly strange because there has been a major drop-off in sales activity this year. Sales volumes have been trending steadily downwards since the end of 2014 in fact, but it’s been particularly pronounced in 2016 – and exacerbated recently by the calling of a federal election, which always causes consumers to stop dead with their decision-making and action-taking.
The thing is: all other price data, including the March Quarter figures from the ABS, has been recording a contraction of Sydney price growth, which is exactly what I would expect. It’s extremely rare in housing markets for prices to keep rising when there’s a significant decline in sales activity.
Hotspotting research for The Price Predictor Index finds not a single growth market in the Sydney metropolitan area, which contains over 700 suburbs. Many suburbs are in steady decline.
An example is Auburn (median house price $835,000, down 1.7 percent in the three months to April, according to Australian Property Monitors), where there were over 200 sales per quarter in late 2013, dropping to 170 in late 2014, 100 late in 2015 and now 75 per quarter.
Likewise, Bankstown ($840,000, down 2.7 percent percent in three months) was recording over 200 sales per quarter late in 2013, but numbers have fallen steadily to 95 per quarter late in 2015 and 80 per quarter in 2016.
Sales in Breakfast Point (median unit price $1.06 million, down 4.9 percent in three months) have fallen from 110 to 88 to 70 to 43 to 33 to 26 in consecutive quarters. 
In Cammeray (median house price $1.7 million, down 10.6 percent in three months), sales have dropped from 58 to 54 to 46 to 37 to 30 to 26 since late 2014. In Fairfield ($720,000, down 2 percent in three months) sales in the past four quarters have been 107, 77, 56 and 35. In Pymble ($2.05 million, down 3.3 percent in three months) sales levels have dropped from 112 to 99 to 71 to 64 to 39 in the past five quarters.
Unit sales in CBD fringe suburb of Haymarket (median unit price $895,000, down 1.8 percent in three months) have dropped from 77 to 57 to 39 to 24 to 9.
In Parramatta ($565,000, down 1 percent) unit sales have declined from 172 to 165 to 107 to 95 in the past four quarters, while in Potts Point ($710,000, down 4.3 percent), unit sales have dropped from 110 to 66 to 47 in consecutive quarters.
There are myriad other examples, all charting the same pattern of decline in sales volumes, with prices starting to follow.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Not a single growth market in the Sydney metropolitan area: Terry Ryder

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Today I met with two of my lovely clients to celebrate the completion of their dual occupancy project. Friends Karen and Katie decided to do a joint venture (JV) with the goal of each ending up with a villa after subdivision.
The ladies were not new to property, they both own their own homes and at times an investment property or two but as corporate business women were understandably time poor.  Their goal was to build their property portfolio and share the experience of their first development.  By working together, they would have each other to bounce off any worries and fears as well as celebrate the major milestones.
Their JV worked like a dream as they each brought a different skill set to the project with Karen being focussed on fine detail and Katie on big picture.
"The one thing we didn't want was the development project and JV to impact on our friendship" Katie explained. 
Karen found that it was easier and less stressful going into the JV and her first development project than it was buying her first pre-built investment property.  “Katie and I trusted each other implicitly and we trusted Property Bloom’s experience” Karen said, “and that trust was proven true.  Without exception Property Bloom took care of all the details, keeping everything on track”.
Karen and Katie’s project commenced in October 2014 and was completed within fourteen months.
The moment the land was secured Property Bloom began the DA approval process enabling the DA to be lodged before settlement on the land.  There is a lot of work involved in getting a DA prepared -  detailed survey, geotechnical report and engineering just to get the plans finalised before then organising the Statement of Environmental Effects, Basix report, Bushfire report and plans and external materials and colours to be approved by the land developer. 
But that was the easy part.  The bigger challenge was getting the actual approval from Council!
Now, admittedly, Christmas did fall whilst the DA was in council so that didn’t help but we were surprised after so many weeks of processing and with the DA approval just within in our grasp (or so we thought) that the town planner then demanded a change to the entire roof design.  This involved changes to the engineer's drainage plan as well so it was not a small change.  We were furious with the lack of consistency as a previous and very similar DA sailed through council without this change request.
Once we had the DA approval in our hands we handed over the Construction Certificate approval to our private certifier who is markedly faster than council. There was no further hold ups and construction commenced in July 2015.
By Christmas 2015, less than 6 months later, the project was completed!
The villas came up beautifully and were quickly leased at a good rent with the ladies enjoying close to a 7% gross yield and very pleased with the equity created.
But that wasn’t the end of it.  The final, and biggest decision of all was……. how to divide the villas? Who would end up with which one?
 The villas were almost identical in size but to keep them unique they had different floor plans, different front facades and internal finishes and slightly different private outdoor space sizes.  After some discussion and internal agonising, it was decided that a flip of a coin would determine the outcome.  Let fate decide!  So in a nail salon Katie and Karen stood watching as a stranger they'd asked, flipped a coin into the air.
The villas will be split by way of a Deed of Partition which is a great way for joint venture partners to work together and then end up with a property each. Talk to your solicitor about how this is managed as you must ensure the Deed is formed before the subdivision of the villas is registered.
“The best things we liked about this project were the ease with which it was executed and the stunning look of the finished villas which we could easily imagine living in ourselves”, said Karen.   “All the details were managed by Property Bloom.  “I was doing an extension on my home at the same time and the stress I went through in organising that project was divorce material…. almost.  In comparison, the development of our villas happened in the background, any stresses and concerns absorbed by Jo and her team.  And the best part is that my friendship with Katie has never been stronger, our trust in each other proven.”
 
Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.
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Developing property and friendships: Jo Chivers

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The Hobart housing market has been the nation’s weakest performing capital city housing market for more than a decade.
There are now signs that the Hobart (and Tasmania’s) housing market may be in line for a steady improvement.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-1-2-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-1-2-580x208.jpg" alt="">
Over the 12 months to March 2016, home values in Hobart have increased by 4.8 percent while over the past two years values are only 4.5 percent higher highlighting that the value growth performance has been much stronger over the past year relative to the previous year.
The above chart shows the annual change in home values across all capital cities, with Hobart and the combined capital cities highlighted and the other cities in grey.  Although Hobart values have increased over the past year, the recent rise must be put in context, over the past decade home values in Hobart have increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent with values falling at an annual rate of -0.7 percent over the past five years.  Hobart’s decade growth performance is well behind Perth which has recorded the second lowest annual rate of growth over the period at 3.1 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-2-2-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-2-2-580x207.jpg" alt="">
It is interesting to look at the performance of the Hobart housing market in context with the performance of the Melbourne market. The previous chart shows that in 2003 and 2004 home value growth in Hobart surged. The rate of growth reached a peak of 57.9 percent annual growth in November 2003 and very shortly thereafter the growth performance in Hobart stalled and has been limited ever since.
The surge in Hobart dwellings came following a surge in Melbourne home values and at a similar time to which the rate of growth in Melbourne values began to slow.  Ever since the end of the last surge in home values in Hobart, Melbourne has recorded strong rises in home values while growth in Hobart has been minimal.
Melbourne has obviously recently seen a large surge in home values meaning that many home owners have substantial levels of equity in their property. Investment in the Tasmanian housing market which offers much lower home values and superior yields may be looking attractive for those in Melbourne looking for a lifestyle investment.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-3-2-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-3-2-580x207.jpg" alt="">
While value growth in Hobart is picking up, transaction volumes are relatively steady from where they were at the end of last year and virtually unchanged from a year ago.  In comparison, most other capital city housing markets are actually recording fewer property transactions than they were a year ago.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-4-2-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-4-2-580x206.jpg" alt="">
Looking at the current market, listings provides one of the best guides about the balance between buyers and sellers.  As listings move lower, buyers have less choice and vendors can be less flexible on their price expectations which can push values higher.  Over the 28 days to 17 April 2016 there were 376 newly advertised properties added to the Hobart housing market and 2,189 total property listings. 
New listings are 1.3 percent higher than they were a year ago and fairly flat over recent weeks.  Meanwhile, total listings are -26.2 percent lower than they were a year ago and as the table shows they are trending lower.  In fact, the number of listings is at its lowest level since October 2010.  With new listings slightly higher than a year ago and total listing much lower it suggests that there is limited new supply coming to the market with increasing demand which is causing total listing volumes to trend much lower.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-5-2-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-5-2-580x210.jpg" alt="">
One of the main drivers of the surge in Hobart home values in 2003 and 2004 was the positive migration trends for Tasmania.  The above table shows that in 2003 and early 2004 both net overseas and net interstate migration were positive.  The chart also shows that typically there is an outflow of residents of Tasmania to other states and territories while net overseas migration is usually positive.  Over the past few quarters, for the first time in a number of years, net interstate migration to Tasmania has been positive.  It is still early days but should this trend continue over the coming quarters it could be a positive for the Tasmania housing market.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-6-1-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-6-1-580x208.jpg" alt="">
People will generally only move to a new region if they are reasonably comfortable that they can find employment.  The unemployment rate in Tasmania has ticked up over recent months and job creation has slowed which may act as a deterrent to make the move to a market like Hobart.  However, if we look at 2003 and 2004 when home values were surging and migration to Tasmania was quite strong, job creation was stronger although the unemployment rate was in the high 6% to low 7% range compared to a similar 6.9% currently.  Keep in mind that some people will move to Tasmania and Hobart as a lifestyle choice so they may be able to do their current job remotely or may commute back to the mainland a few days a week / each month.  Furthermore, a proportion of people that move interstate would be retirees and therefore their decision is not reliant upon securing employment.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-7-1-580x213.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-7-1-580x213.jpg" alt="">
Tourism is likely to be a growing source of employment for those living in Tasmania.  According to data from Tourism Research Australia, international visitor numbers to Tasmania increased by 19.6 percent in 2015 and have increased by 53 percent over the past five years. Meanwhile, domestic overnight trips to Tasmania increased by 17.3 percent in 2015 and have increased by 40 percent over the past five years.  Should the ramp-up in tourism continue it will create even more employment opportunities in the local economy.
When you look at the housing and economic indicators for Hobart it looks like the market is well positioned to see an increase in the rate of housing demand and subsequently home values over the coming year.  Of course Hobart also has the advantage of being a substantially more affordable housing market than all of the other capital cities.  Any of these indicators could change and most importantly if job creation picked up pace and the unemployment rate fell it would provide further positives for the local market.  Nevertheless, it looks as if the fundamentals are in place for a long-awaited improvement in value growth for the Hobart housing market.
 Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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