Longstanding Gold Coast and Canberra developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/morris-property-group">Morris Property Group</a> is continuing to roll on with its Glitter Strip apartment pipeline, seeking to return to Mermaid Beach with a new 68-apartment development.

Morris, founded by Barry Morris in 1978 and one of the Gold Coast’s most prolific apartment developers over the past two decades, has filed plans for a 12-storey mixed-use building at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/36-seabeach-avenue-mermaid-beach-qld-4218">34-36 Seabeach Avenue</a>, on the prized eastern side of the Gold Coast Highway.

The 1,227 sqm site occupies a prominent corner position at Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway, opposite the Mermaid Plaza retail and office precinct and around 140 metres walking distance from the future Mermaid Beach South light rail station.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a> has designed the project, which will comprise 68 apartments across a mix of 48 two-bedroom and 20 three-bedroom residences.

The building will rise 12 storeys, reaching a maximum height of 36 metres, with the apartments accounting for a total of 156 bedrooms. The development application also seeks approval for short-term accommodation across the 68 apartments, while two office tenancies are proposed at ground level.

The plans show 108 car spaces across the development, with parking accommodated at ground level and within a three-level basement accessed from Seabeach Avenue.

<img alt="Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c2175c99-12fd-4a3c-9be1-89bbf258a90d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-20%20at%202.59.41%E2%80%AFPM_0.png?VersionId=iNLzWcE6gaAE76rafhEXfHve.4g4Se0p" />

Resident amenity will be concentrated on level two, where Fraser &amp; Partners has designed a recreation deck with a swimming pool, 90 sqm pool terrace, outdoor barbecue area and gym.

The broader communal offering will also incorporate landscaped spaces, with the planning documents noting the amenity has been designed to provide areas for recreation, social interaction and outdoor living.

The proposal would continue the transformation of the Gold Coast Highway corridor through Mermaid Beach ahead of the arrival of the light rail.

The site is zoned Neighbourhood Centre and sits within the Mermaid Beach/Broadbeach Light Rail Corridor neighbourhood plan. While the prescribed building height is 24 metres, the site is identified within an Urban Neighbourhood context providing for a 50 per cent height uplift to 36 metres.

Planning documents describe the stretch of the Gold Coast Highway between Broadbeach and Nobby Beach as increasingly characterised by medium and high-rise development, with the proposed Morris tower joining projects including Ventura, The Alfred, Oceans and Otto.

<img alt="Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="911f193f-e381-4a55-be08-58be87fcf978" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-20%20at%202.59.48%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=oxVvLJaY.SOXEdXrIcogfyEXDfvCmmpM" />

The development would mark Morris Property Group's latest investment in Mermaid Beach, where it has already delivered two apartment projects.

Otto, at 1 Bondi Avenue on the western side of the Gold Coast Highway, comprises 70 apartments across nine storeys. The project was completed in 2019 and includes a residents' gym, recreation deck and swimming pool.

Morris also developed Oceans at 46 Ocean Street, a nine-storey, 70-apartment build-to-rent development completed in 2019. Oceans was the group's first build-to-rent project and incorporates commercial space at ground level.

The two existing Morris projects sit further north along the same Gold Coast Highway corridor as the proposed Seabeach Avenue development. Fraser &amp; Partners' planning analysis specifically identifies both Otto and Oceans among the established built-form precedents surrounding the site.

<img alt="Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="14925119-7b71-4812-8149-340317512c7c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-20%20at%203.00.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=aEJqYuw_nTCjcin17BSD0piB1EFotTlj" />

Mermaid Beach represents only part of Morris' considerable Gold Coast footprint.

The family-owned developer has been particularly active in neighbouring Broadbeach, delivering projects including Sierra Grand, Eclipse, Synergy, Qube, Koko, Opus and Malo, while its current pipeline includes Maison and the two-tower Crest development.

Further south, Morris has also developed a string of projects in Burleigh Heads, including Element, Boardwalk and Sandbar, while Essentia expanded its footprint north into Surfers Paradise.

The Seabeach Avenue application has been lodged by PMM Broadbeach Pty Ltd and seeks a development permit for a Material Change of Use for multiple dwellings, short-term accommodation and office uses. Zone Planning Group prepared the planning application, with Fraser &amp; Partners commissioned as architect.

The project comes as the developer continues to expand its Gold Coast pipeline while retaining a significant presence in Canberra. Morris now has more than $2.5 billion of development in its national pipeline and has delivered more than 7,000 homes during its near five-decade history

Joel Robinson

First look: Morris Property Group returns to Mermaid Beach with new Seabeach Avenue apartment development

<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fortis&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1787272340808000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3hvFB2uWTRfEyEcpTSnnK9" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fortis" target="_blank">Fortis</a>&nbsp;is continuing its stronghold on Sydn​ey’s eastern suburbs apartment market, launching&nbsp;in September&nbsp;its latest boutique&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/double-bay-nsw-2028&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1787272340808000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0GI5S9-wNeiLUnM-d1uYkw" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/double-bay-nsw-2028" target="_blank">Double Bay</a>&nbsp;development,&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-william-double-bay-55-william-street-double-bay-nsw-2028&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1787272340808000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2YNouJQcFjiTTgVHbgDLA-" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-william-double-bay-55-william-street-double-bay-nsw-2028" target="_blank">55 William</a>.

55 William presents&nbsp;just eight north-facing&nbsp;two-bedroom, three-bedroom and full-floor&nbsp;residences to the market, priced from $4.5 million.

The upcoming launch comes just weeks after Fortis secured approval for the $80 million development, its third eastern suburbs approval in two months. Construction is already underway, with completion targeted for 2028.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152579 project_image_fid=376250]

55 William adds to a growing concentration of Fortis projects in and around Double Bay, a market the developer has become increasingly active in over recent years.

Fortis previously completed the nine-residence Marmont on New South Head Road, while it is currently developing a mixed-use residential and retail project at 12 Cross Street. Its wider Double Bay footprint also extends into commercial and retail development.

The developer's broader Sydney residential pipeline is particularly concentrated across the eastern suburbs, with projects spanning Doub​le Bay, Ro​se Bay, Wo​ollahra, Dar​ling Point, Poi​nt Piper and Eli​zabeth Bay.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152579 project_image_fid=376253]

At 55 William, Fortis has again turned to MHN Design Union, the architecture practice behind several of its eastern suburbs projects, while London-based 1508 London has been appointed to handle the interiors and Wyer &amp; Co the landscaping.

The six-level building will comprise a combination of two and three-bedroom apartments, including a garden residence, full-floor apartments, a sub-penthouse and penthouse. Each residence will have secure basement parking and private outdoor space.

A rooftop terrace for all residents, along with select apartments, enjoys views across Double Bay Harbour and toward the Sydney skyline.

Ceiling heights will reach up to three metres&nbsp;in select residences, while the kitchens will feature natural stone and integrated Gaggenau appliances.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

The boutique nature of the project reflects the type of stock Fortis has increasingly targeted across Sydney's eastern suburbs, where larger apartments and smaller buildings are being pitched primarily toward local owner-occupiers and downsizers.

Fortis Group General Manager Ed Eve said the developer continues to see demand from buyers wanting to remain in the eastern suburbs but move into newer, lower-maintenance housing.

“We're seeing continued demand from local owner-occupiers and downsizers looking for high-quality homes that allow them to remain in the eastern suburbs, close to the lifestyle and community they know,” Eve said.

55 William is also one of the early projects to respond directly to the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms. Fortis had previously secured approval for just two townhouses on the 599 sqm site before revising the scheme to eight apartments following the planning changes.

Situated one street back from Double Bay's water's edge, the project enjoys an enviable harbourside setting within walking distance of Double Bay Village and the ferry wharf.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152579 project_image_fid=376252]

Fortis has increasingly made the eastern suburbs a major focus of its Sydney pipeline. Beyond Double Bay, it recently completed the 14-residence Piper in Point Piper and has projects underway or planned across Rose Bay, Woollahra and Darling Point.

The developer recently secured approval for Verano in Rose Bay, a six-level development comprising 21 two, three and four-bedroom apartments, also designed by MHNDU.

55 William&nbsp;is soon to be release to the market with VIP appointments commencing early September,&nbsp;with residences priced from $4.5 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152579]

Fortis continues eastern suburbs push with 55 William launch

UAE-based developer Arada has unveiled plans for a $2 billion twin-tower apartment development in Broadbeach, marking its first move into Queensland as it continues its rapid expansion across Australia.

Arada will develop 952 apartments across two towers on a prominent site opposite the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre, with the project targeted for completion ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

The project represents Arada's largest commitment to the Australian market since arriving in the country in 2024 and significantly expands a local pipeline that has now grown to eight projects and more than 5,000 homes.

It will also be the first major Queensland project delivered by Roberts Co since the tier-one contractor was acquired by Arada Group in 2025.

Plus Studio has designed the Broadbeach development, which will comprise one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two towers connected by a landscaped podium.

A significant resident amenity offering will include lagoon and lap pools, a gym, sauna and steam room, alongside a mist room, infrared room and salt scrub facilities. Communal terraces, private dining areas, a library, residents' lounge and work-from-home spaces are also planned. Around 1,200 sqm of retail and hospitality space will occupy the ground floor.

The site puts Arada in one of the Gold Coast's most active apartment markets, directly opposite the convention centre and within walking distance of Pacific Fair, The Star Gold Coast and Broadbeach's dining and retail precinct.

It also has immediate access to the Gold Coast light rail network and sits just a few blocks from the beach.

Arada Group Chief Executive Ahmed Alkhoshaibi said Broadbeach represented an opportunity for the developer to expand beyond its initial NSW pipeline.

“Broadbeach is a world-class address that gives us the canvas to create a community of exceptional design and lifestyle quality that genuinely enriches the daily lives of the people who call it home,” Alkhoshaibi said.

“This is our first development outside New South Wales, and it reflects our growing ambition to grow in key urban markets around the country.”

Alkhoshaibi said bringing Roberts Co into the project would give Arada greater control over the development and construction process.

“Delivering this project through Roberts Co, our own tier-one construction business, means we can bring the quality, pace and accountability that our buyers expect.”

The move into Broadbeach comes as Arada accelerates its Australian expansion following its entry into the market two years ago. The developer has assembled a pipeline of eight projects comprising more than 5,000 homes, while the acquisition of Roberts Co last year gave the group its own Australian construction capability.

Globally, Arada has a development portfolio valued at $50 billion comprising more than 55,000 homes across the UAE, United Kingdom and Australia.

The Gold Coast is emerging as the next major market for the developer, with strong population growth and infrastructure spending ahead of the 2032 Games continuing to underpin significant apartment development across the coastal strip.

Arada plots $2 billion Broadbeach towers in major Queensland move

Sydney’s downsizer market is changing, with a growing cohort of buyers prioritising the right home over simply finding a smaller one.

Coronation Property Head of Sales Cam Porter says the traditional idea of downsizing does not necessarily reflect what many buyers are now looking for, particularly those moving from established family homes across Sydney.

Instead, he says they are increasingly becoming “right-sizers”, seeking lower-maintenance homes without sacrificing the space, amenity or quality they have become accustomed to.

“We are increasingly seeing buyers who are not motivated by the idea of simply moving into a smaller property,” Porter says.

“They are right-sizers. They want a home that is easier to manage and better connected, but they still expect generosity, quality and a floorplan that supports the way they live.”

It is a subtle but important distinction in a market where apartment developers are increasingly targeting established owner-occupiers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377495]

For many of these buyers, moving from a house to an apartment is not driven by a desire to dramatically reduce their living space. Instead, the appeal is in removing some of the maintenance associated with a larger home while retaining generous living areas, storage and enough flexibility to accommodate family and friends.

Coronation’s sales team is seeing buyers place particular importance on natural light, practical storage and additional rooms that can be used as guest bedrooms, home offices or secondary living spaces.

Kitchens and dining areas are also playing an increasingly important role, particularly for buyers who regularly entertain or have children and grandchildren visit.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377494]

“These buyers still want their home to feel generous,” Porter says.

“They may want less maintenance, but they are not looking for less life.”

The challenge for the broader housing market is providing enough of the right stock to encourage that move.

While much of the discussion around Sydney’s housing shortage has centred on the number of homes being delivered, Porter says the diversity of those homes is equally important.

Older homeowners can remain in large family houses for longer when they cannot find an appropriate alternative in the neighbourhoods where they have built their lives.

“The decision is rarely as simple as wanting fewer bedrooms,” Porter says.

“People are weighing up their connection to a neighbourhood, the space they need for family, the quality of the home and whether it will continue to work for them over the long term.”

It also has implications beyond the downsizer market. Providing suitable apartments for smaller households can free up established houses for families who need the additional bedrooms and land, creating greater movement through the housing market.

<h2>Lillian targets the next stage of apartment buyer</h2>

It is a buyer Coronation is targeting at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lillian-erskineville-9-metters-street-erskineville-nsw-2043">Lillian</a>, its new collection of apartments, terraces and penthouses at Erskineville Village.

Designed by Silvester Fuller, Lillian has been shaped around larger living spaces, natural light and flexible floorplans, alongside landscaped areas, wellness amenity and communal spaces for residents.

The development will form part of Coronation’s broader Erskineville Village precinct, which will combine new homes with green space, retail, hospitality and new pedestrian connections.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377688]

McPherson Park will sit at the centre of the precinct, creating a significant new green space alongside the project’s retail and hospitality offering.

For Porter, the opportunity is to give buyers another housing option without forcing them to leave the part of Sydney they already know.

“People should be able to change the type of home they live in without having to change their entire life,” he says.

“For many buyers, Lillian offers the opportunity to remain connected to the Inner West and the city, while gaining access to a more convenient, walkable and considered way of living.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377687]

Coronation will explore the changing <a href="https://lillianresidences.com.au/news/lillian-x-space-x-downsizers-event-27-august/">right-sizer market at an event on August 27</a>, bringing together experts across property, design and lifestyle.

Held in partnership with SPACE, Poliform and Downsizer.com.au, the event will include a property market outlook from economist Michael Blythe alongside discussion around the considerations facing buyers planning their next move.

Attendees will also be able to learn more about the residences and amenity planned at Lillian Erskineville.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135149]

From downsizing to right-sizing: What Sydney buyers want from their next home

Family-owned builder and developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/omaya">Omaya</a> is bringing its 27-storey The Maybelle development to market, with the 229-apartment tower rising alongside Ismay Reserve near North Strathfield.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-maybelle-21-parramatta-road-homebush-nsw-2140">The Maybelle</a> will comprise one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with its height providing elevated outlooks towards the Sydney skyline and Harbour Bridge, while other residences will look across neighbouring Ismay Reserve.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/squillace-architects">Squillace Architects</a>, the tower combines its parkside setting with proximity to the established retail, dining and transport amenity around North Strathfield.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376196]

Residences will feature open-plan living spaces and a choice of two interior schemes, while communal amenity is spread across two elevated levels of the building.

Level 8 will be home to the Garden Pavilion, a full-floor resident space incorporating communal entertaining and breakout areas, seating and recreation spaces. Further up the tower, a landscaped Sky Terrace on Level 14 will provide another communal area with panoramic views towards the Harbour Bridge and Sydney skyline.

At ground level, the development sits directly alongside Ismay Reserve, where lawns, walking paths, children's play areas, picnic spaces and recreational facilities extend the green space available immediately around the project.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376194]

The Maybelle is also within walking distance of North Strathfield and the Bakehouse Quarter, which provides a mix of cafés, restaurants, shops and everyday services.

Existing rail and bus services provide connections across Sydney, while the future North Strathfield Metro and access to the M4 will add to the transport options available around the precinct. Walking and cycling routes also extend via Powells Creek towards Sydney Olympic Park and its sporting, entertainment and parkland precincts.

Families are also well positioned for access to a broad selection of established schools and education options across Strathfield and the surrounding Inner West.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376181]

Omaya has operated in Sydney for more than 35 years, managing projects from acquisition and design through to construction and delivery. The family-owned company is both developer and builder of The Maybelle.

Apartments start from $560,000, with the development protected by 10-year Latent Defects Insurance.

Construction is well underway, with completion expected by the end of 2026 and move-in anticipated from Q1 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134873]

The Maybelle brings 27-storey parkside tower to market near North Strathfield

Residential Market

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As someone allegedly knows something about property, I have to confess I didn't participate in Melbourne's property market through its recent stellar run, having been focused on Sydney, and more lately Brisbane. 
 
At least I won't miss out on Geelong, though.
 
Geelong had always looked to be a likely contender for the ripple effect from Melbourne, being located less than 50 miles from the capital, and being a generally good city in its own right.
 
And then the Labor government more or less nailed it on by announcing a series of measures to stimulate the market.
 
I broke a golden rule of thumb when discussing possible price impacts here when I estimated that median house prices in the city could feasibly rise by 20 to 30 per cent by 2020 (never use numbers; they always go for the numbers...).
 
Somehow, that became a median price of $600,000 ("it's not hard to envision prices in Geelong moving 20 to 30 percent higher by June 2020, particularly in the sub-$600,000 bracket").
 
Anyhoo, the point was that prices could rise as a result of the stimulatory measures, not least because the new legislation doesn't take full effect for months, affording opportunists a free kick at buying before 1 July. 
 
And it looks like prices are teeing off already.
 
Last weekend the auction clearance rate in Geelong moved above 90 percent, the highest regional or non-capital city clearance rate in the country.
 
And there are now regular stories of street records being smoked.
 
This weekend a house that last sold for $310,000 in 2009 sold for an astonishing $836,000 at auction. 
 
It looks like a rocket has been put under house prices in Geelong West.   
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/23/A1.jpg" alt=""> 
All the hallmarks of a nascent boom.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Geelong prices teeing off early

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The Canberra market continues to look stronger and is rising as Sydney is fading.
The ACT took some time to join the party, and its conditions remain somewhat less than a “boom”, but are becoming increasingly buoyant.  All indicators - sales activity, price growth, rental growth and vacancies - indicate a market that’s trending upwards.
Having previously been hampered by downsizing in the public service and a unit oversupply, the Canberra showed signs of rising in 2014, when total residential sales increased to 9,200 from 8,590 the year before. Sales rose further to 9,829 in 2015 and the market has remained busy ever since.
Total residential sales volumes have been rising over the past two years. In 2012, 2013 and most of 2014, every quarter recorded residential sales below 2,300 - but since late 2014 most quarters have been above 2,400 sales.
This has occurred on the back of an improving economy (recently ranked No.2 in the nation behind NSW by CommSec), low unemployment and high average incomes.
The greatest strength has been in the housing market, with sales activity in the apartment market falling away last year.
As a result, the most positive statistics on prices and rents are being seen in the housing market, and much less so in the apartment market.
The latest figures from SQM Research suggest a 13 percent annual rise in house prices and a 4 percent rise of units. CoreLogic’s latest data says houses are up 10 percent and units 7 percent.
The Canberra figures for house price growth are bettered only by Melbourne and Sydney.
The national capital is also the national leader on rental growth, helped by very low vacancy rates. Both SQM and Domain suggest vacancies are consistently around 1percent (only Hobart is lower among the capital cities).
SQM says rents are up 7 percent for houses and 2 percent for units, while Domain reports 6 percent growth for houses and 5 percent for units.
Median rental yields are 4.1 percent for houses (compared to 2.8 percent in Sydney and 2.6 percent in Melbourne) and 5.1 percent for apartments.
Overall, as I have often commented, the standout characteristic of Canberra is the steadiness of its performance. I sometimes refer to it as the Goldilocks of Australian real estate: not too hot, not too cold, just right.
That, plus the low vacancies and the growth numbers now emerging, make the national capital increasingly appealing for investors.
Another predictable factor in the ACT market is the predominance of the northern part of the city in terms of growth markets.
While there are now growth suburbs across the Canberra metropolitan area, the strongest precincts once again are the Belconnen and Gungahlin districts in the north.
In the latest Hotspotting research for The Price Predictor Index, we have identified 18 Canberra suburbs with rising markets and nine of those are in the Belconnen and Gungahlin areas.
Belconnen (six growth suburbs) has taken over from Gungahlin (three) as the clear market leader.
Suburbs with rising markets in the Belconnen District include Flynn, Bruce, Florey, Holt, Macgregor and Evatt. Bruce, where house sales have risen from 38 to 41 to 44 to 54 in the past four consecutive quarters, is typical of the suburbs that are rising.
There are growth markets elsewhere as well, including in the Tuggeranong and Inner South precincts of the city. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

As Sydney market fades Canberra gains strength: Terry Ryder

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Success in real estate belongs to the independent thinkers. And that means the select few.
The most predictable market intelligence of the past few weeks is that consumer sentiment about real estate has weakened.
Given the herd mentality in Australian real estate, and the absence of independent thought and action, I would expect sentiment to mirror media reporting trends. If media keeps reporting that “the Australian property boom” is over, I would expect a survey of public sentiment to reflect that.
And, lately, it has. According to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment, public opinion about whether it’s a good time to buy, and about price expectations, has weakened. This apparent dissipation of confidence has coincided with mainstream media deciding that the new core storyline is that the so-called national property boom is over.
What they really mean is that the Sydney boom is over and that is reflected in the generalised national figures much beloved by lazy journalists.
This new and recurrent theme in mainstream media is now being mirrored in responses to surveys about real estate.
It tells us that the average citizen struggles with independent thought. Most are pack animals and more likely to take action because everyone else is than because it makes sense. 
Sometimes it feels like all Australians are connected to a central brain – and not a particularly smart one, either.
Another recent poll that fits this theme is the NAB’s quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey. The generalised results are that sentiment has weakened and people expect price growth to be less spectacular than the past couple of years.
Significant? Not at all. It’s people parroting what they read in newspapers. Will those expectations be marched by outcomes? No it will not - growth won’t stop, but the focus of growth will switch from Sydney to other areas.
While media focused on this downturn in overall generalised simplified public expectations, without segmenting for local differences of which there are many, there are many other things in the NAB quarterly report that are far more significant. 
These are matters of fact, rather than impressions, expectations or predictions.
The NAB report is one of the few that realistically quantifies buying activity by first-timers. It finds that this market segment has increased recently - 26.2% of sales of established properties are made to first-time buyers, compared to 23.7% in the June Quarter. And 28.9% of sales of new properties are being made to first-time buyers.
The NAB report, unlike other less credible sources like the ABS, takes into account that not all first-timers buy homes. A rising number buy investment properties as a first purchase. According to NAB, 15.7% of established properties and 16.4% of new properties are being sold to first-timers as home-buyers. In addition, 10.5% of established properties and 12.5% of new properties are being sold to first-time buyers as investors.
They’re a big chunk of the market, but for many media outlets it’s an inconvenient truth because it contradicts the beloved storyline about the Great Australian Dream being dead because youngsters are priced out of the market. 
As an aside, research from Mortgage Choice has found that most first-home buyers are comfortable with their mortgages, with almost two-thirds saying they could accommodate interest rate rises of at least two percentage points (a quarter of them could cope with a rise of four points).
The NAB report also provides a good snapshot of the activity of foreign investors. It shows that overall they remain quite insignificant as a share of the overall market. They are most active in buying new property, where they account for 16% of sales.
They are most prominent, and this tells its own tale, in the apartment market, especially in Victoria (which means inner-city Melbourne). In Victoria, foreign buyers account for almost a third of all new unit sales. 
It confirms that developers are flooding inner-city apartment markets with new product because they believe they can sell any surplus stock overseas (which means Asia, especially China and Hong Kong). 
Some developers are not bothering to market locally but heading directly overseas to sell their off-the-plan stock.
As time goes by and more projects flood this market, I would expect the foreign purchase component to rise. It’s a warning to Australian investors and home-buyers to steer clear.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
 
 
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A warning to Australian investors and home buyers: Terry Ryder

Does Australia have a greater housing oversupply than the US? Pete Wargent

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Is this quote by Johnny Isakson the perfect property quote – “In the real estate business you learn more about people, and you learn more about community issues, you learn more about life, you learn more about the impact of government, probably than any other profession that I know of.”
Let’s focus on the part of governments in property – more particularly as it relates to Sydney and its many niche property markets. Local governments are being amalgamated so that the NSW government can put on its developer cap and start approving thousands upon thousands of new developments. They identify overseas buyers as the driving force so they then introduce higher duties to get a greater tax grab. The federal government (since December 2008) allows one hundred per cent of all new developments to be sold offshore driving overseas investor demand to levels never seen before – the perfect property storm has been created but who will clean it up?
Firstly, we need to pinpoint when this newly created apartment – a – thon peaked which would be around mid – 2013. Barangaroo was the star attraction with 750 new harbour side apartments that sold in a matter of hours smashing per square metre records. These per square metre rates were then factored into every other new development and the investors came in fast, which in turn led developers to pay record prices for property sites thus creating an insatiable property appetite for investors and property developers.
Then 18 months later the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) on December 9, 2014 tightens lending regulations resulting in higher deposits from investors buying off – the – plan. Although not much was said at the time the investor cracks were starting to appear despite developers and real estate agents buying record amounts of polyfilla. Next in July 2015, APRA announced that the big four banks and Macquarie Bank must hold more capital to provide a buffer against defaults by investors.
In May 2015, then federal treasurer Joe Hockey announced that the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) was being handed full control over all property acquisitions in Australia. This then led to the ATO announcing that every property transaction dating back to 1985 would be recorded and placed on their property register. Foreign investor participation in Australia’s property markets had spiked to $34.7 billion in 2013/14 up from $17.6 billion the previous year, so suspicions were on the rise. I might add that some market commentators (like myself) had been raising concerns well before this.
Who could forget the piece I filed back on 5 March 2015 – Treasurer Joe’s Villa del Nightmare when the ATO announced the first divestiture notice for a $39 million Point Piper mansion that was bought by a foreign buyer without Australian residency. The subject property was then flipped to a friend who just so happened to have an Australian residency and the case was closed – or so we were led to believe.
Last week (a premature announcement broke) –<a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Forms/Foreign-resident-capital-gains-withholding-clearance-certificate-application-instructions/"> Foreign resident capital gains withholding clearance certificate applications</a> would be required for every property in Australia selling above $2 million from 1 July 2016. I was reliably informed that the grand plan is that clearance certificates will apply for every Australian property down the track. Here is the official<a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/uploadedFiles/Content/LB_I/downloads/FRCGW%20-%20clearance%20certificate%20application.pdf"> ATO clearance certificate</a>application from the ATO website.
So does this then take our attention (well mine anyway) to the fact that quite possibly in the very near future the ATO, who have been very quiet of late on all matters pertaining to divestiture notices, may soon have some big announcements? Assuming all those who purchased illegally will not be able to receive a clearance certificate – so the ATO pockets 10 per cent of the selling price from every sale?
The big problem here is that most in the industry knows that the Asian buyers have dropped off significantly, as too the Asian developers. Sydney has approximately 30,000 new apartments nearing completion and how many of those properties will have defaulting buyers? We know what the first market sale price was and nobody can intelligently predict what the second sale price may be. Guesstimates range from a 10 to 50 per cent correction depending on the volume of property coming on to the market, and rest assured you can no longer apply the Barangaroo square metre rate set back in mid – 2013.
If these defaults do happen and the second sales prices are well below the initial selling price this will then throw all the thousands and thousands of off – the – plan sales into complete chaos. Then all the future developments are shelved given these once strong markets have disappeared. Councils have been merged so what then happens to that grand plan of high density future developments?
Sydney for a few years now has been showing clear signs of investor growing pains. Although this time around the vast majority of these new developments are still a way off completion. If we go by past markets the banks are about to become reluctant property owners – so what’s the plan?
Sadly, there is no plan – just cross your fingers and hope that level heads prevail. Quite fascinating that with all these massive high – density developments that in this day and age we still don’t have a governing body regulating Australian property markets.
I get that feeling that we will need more than an umbrella.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 68
Number of houses on the market last week – 55
Number of houses on the market this week – 51
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 46
Number of apartments on the market last week – 50
Number of apartments on the market this week – 42
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
Number of houses on the market last week – 11
Number of houses on the market this week – 10
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 13
Number of apartments on the market last week – 22
Number of apartments on the market this week – 18
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
Number of houses on the market last week – 8
Number of houses on the market this week – 8
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 26
Number of apartments on the market last week – 22
Number of apartments on the market this week – 20
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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The property storm Sydney had to have: Robert Simeon

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<div>I recently visited the wildlife sanctuary at Currumbin, and it occurred to me that without the scores of Chinese visitors in attendance on the day, the place would have been four-fifths empty!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As it was the attraction was absolutely packed to the rafters with camera-toting tourists. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's a trend that is being reflected right across Australia, with the number of visitors from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong continuing to multiply at a record pace. That's just one part of the Asian century story for Australasia. Meanwhile, a recently released report on global migration of the super-wealthy found that the two most popular cities in the world for net inflow of millionaires in 2015 were Sydney (4,000) and Melbourne (3,000). Australia is becoming a playground for wealthy Asians. As noted in these pages many months ago, though, perhaps the most significant change for Australia will be the record boom in international students, since this will in turn lead to higher permanent residency uptake. The government has announced that from 1 July 2016 - just a few weeks away - that there will be a series of important changes to the student visa programme. There will now only be one visa class only for international students, subclass 500, and under the new streamlined process three quarters of applications will be waved through in less than one month. International students with the requisite funds or income and English language skills will be able to apply for the new visa, including Primary School student applicants (from the age 6 or above) and their guardians or family members. This represents a very significant shift in policy. The rules have also been relaxed with regards to course duration and immigration risk assessment. As a result of the new changes, there could potentially be a huge increase in the number of Primary School age Chinese students and their guardians, with many ultimately going on to become Australian citizens. With a combined population of about 2.7 billion or so, there is boundless potential for uptake from China and India in particular.</div>
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<div>Immigration eases</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures figures to April 2016 rolling annual number of net permanent and long arrivals eased to +270,200, the lowest number since May 2007. </div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/06/07/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>The impact of this will mainly be felt in regional Australia and in resources regions, with population growth in the largest cities continuing to expand at around 80,000 to 90,000 per annum. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some 59 percent of permanent settlers hailed from Asia in the year to April, with the volumes arriving from New Zealand and Britain having slowed markedly.</div>
 <a href="/images/2016/06/07/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<img src="/images/2016/06/07/A3.jpg" alt=""> <div>Rebalancing continues</div>
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<div>The lower dollar continues to drive tourist and other short term arrivals to record highs, with the 7.69 million short term arrivals over the past year being a punchy 9 per cent increase from April 2015.</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/06/07/A4.jpg" alt=""> <div>Most notably, the number of visitors from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong continues to multiply at an extraordinary rate, up by a tub-thumping 21.2 per cent over the year to 1.49 million. The compounding effect of such a growth rate implies a doubling of that number within 3.5 years. Incredible stuff.</div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/06/07/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>Most short term arrivals come for holidays (3.79 million), but more than 2 million now cite their main reason for travel as being visiting friends and family, thereby reinforcing the Asian connections. 
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/06/07/A6.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>After a rare blip last month, the number of education arrivals is now on the march again, with the 489,900 arrivals over the past year representing a romping increase of 17 per cent. And thanks to the streamlining of visa rules from 1 July 2016 the number of international students will likely begin to flow freely more or less in perpetuity.</div>
 <a href="/images/2016/06/07/A2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<div class="post-body entry-content">
 <img src="/images/2016/06/07/A2-1.jpg" alt=""> This is another trend which is largely driven by China and India, and it is also heavily focussed upon the largest capital cities.  <div> </div>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The significance of the unprecedented boom in Chinese tourism and students seems largely to be lost in the popular narrative, which continues to discuss economic malaise when the economy is growing at a faster pace than even the most bullish of commentators expected (an annualised pace of 3.6 per cent in the last six months reported).</div>
<div>
 It is true that net exports are leading growth, and certainly there has been concentration risk aplenty, but the international trade data confirmed that the pace of education, tourism and other services exports to China and other parts of Asia is accelerating.</div>
<div>
 No doubt there will be the usual shrill complaints from the anti-immigration lobby about the streamlining of entry rules for international students, but overall this should be be a material boost for the Australian economy - and indeed for the beleaguered new apartment market.  
</div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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New student visa rules set to boost property markets: Pete Wargent

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If you looked only at the generalised data excreted by research company computers, you’d think not much is going on in Adelaide.
According to one set of figures, house values are up 3.9 percent in annual terms and units 3.6 percent. But Adelaide is busier and more vibrant than those numbers indicate, particularly when you look at sales activity.
Adelaide started 2016 in solid fashion and continues to be one of the strongest city markets in the nation. The steady start to the year is encouraging, given that the March Quarter is typically the period that produces the smallest number of sales in the South Australian market.
Adelaide currently has more suburbs with rising sales momentum than Brisbane does, although it’s a smaller city, and considerably more than Sydney now does.
Generally, Adelaide had a solid year in 2015. Each of the four quarters had sales activity on a par with, or higher than, the corresponding period a year earlier. The June and September quarters were both substantially higher than the year before.
This continues a pattern of steadily rising sales over the past three years. In 2013 the SA market recorded between 7,000 and 7,500 dwelling sales per quarter. In 2014 sales rose above 8,000 per quarter and in 2015 every quarter was above 9,000 sales. The current year looks like continuing the pattern.
Our research for The Price Predictor Index shows that the growth suburbs in Adelaide are primarily middle-market areas and outer-ring precincts, with few top-end markets standing out.
The No.1 municipality is now the Port Adelaide Enfield LGA, one of the largest municipalities in Adelaide, covering the inner north and north-west of the city. Eight suburbs in this LGA having rising sales patterns, mostly suburbs with median house prices in the range from $380,000 to $510,000. They include Broadview, Northgate, Windsor Gardens and Largs Bay.
The Onkaparinga LGA, which always features as one of the strongest markets, has six growthsuburbs and six markets with steady sales activity in the far south of the Adelaide metropolitan area.
Many of the more active precincts are middle-market areas. The Charles Sturt LGA, which includes bayside suburbs like Henley Beach and West Beach, has seven suburbs with upward momentum. Growth markets include Findon, Kidman Park, Seaton and Semaphore Park.
The Tea Tree Gully LGA in the north-eastern suburbs stands out in most of our surveys as a highly consistent market. It now has six suburbs with steady sales patterns, plus five that are rising– including Hope Valley, Modbury and Ridgehaven.
The Holdfast Bay LGA has four Rising Steadily markets, including the bayside Glenelg suburbs and Somerton Park.
Another thing worth considering about Adelaide is the rental yields on offer. With negative gearing in the firing line in this long and boring Election campaign, cities that can offer higher rental yields become more appealing. If you borrow at 4 percent to buy a property returning 6 percent, negative gearing becomes a non-issue.
The cheaper precincts in the Adelaide metropolitan area provide houses with median yields between 6 percent and 7 percent. Areas that are slightly more expensive typically have yields in the 5.5 percent to 6 percent range.
 Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Adelaide tops Brisbane for property sales momentum: Terry Ryder

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There’s been a lot of discussion about a resurgence in Sydney prices, but I’m not believing it.
The talk is based primarily on one month’s figures from one source, which suggested a significant rise in Sydney house prices in May.
People are so willing to blindly accept the figures pumped out by research companies. One international ratings agency rushed out a new assessment of the Australian residential market, complete with dire warnings, based on that one figure – apparently oblivious to the frequent statistical aberrations in price data for short time periods. 
Those figures for May presented a large number of very strange results. For example, are we seriously expected to believe that Hobart apartment values rose 8.4% in a single month? Or that Darwin apartment values declined 10 percent in May? Or that, in sharp contrast, Darwin house prices surged 3.5 percent in May? Or that unit prices dropped 6% in a month in both Canberra and Perth? Or that house values in Sydney suddenly turned around and jumped 3.6 percent in May?
The absurd nature on some of these numbers shows how rubbery real estate figures can be, especially when you’re dealing with month-to-month changes, which are notoriously erratic and essentially meaningless.
The Sydney figure was particularly strange because there has been a major drop-off in sales activity this year. Sales volumes have been trending steadily downwards since the end of 2014 in fact, but it’s been particularly pronounced in 2016 – and exacerbated recently by the calling of a federal election, which always causes consumers to stop dead with their decision-making and action-taking.
The thing is: all other price data, including the March Quarter figures from the ABS, has been recording a contraction of Sydney price growth, which is exactly what I would expect. It’s extremely rare in housing markets for prices to keep rising when there’s a significant decline in sales activity.
Hotspotting research for The Price Predictor Index finds not a single growth market in the Sydney metropolitan area, which contains over 700 suburbs. Many suburbs are in steady decline.
An example is Auburn (median house price $835,000, down 1.7 percent in the three months to April, according to Australian Property Monitors), where there were over 200 sales per quarter in late 2013, dropping to 170 in late 2014, 100 late in 2015 and now 75 per quarter.
Likewise, Bankstown ($840,000, down 2.7 percent percent in three months) was recording over 200 sales per quarter late in 2013, but numbers have fallen steadily to 95 per quarter late in 2015 and 80 per quarter in 2016.
Sales in Breakfast Point (median unit price $1.06 million, down 4.9 percent in three months) have fallen from 110 to 88 to 70 to 43 to 33 to 26 in consecutive quarters. 
In Cammeray (median house price $1.7 million, down 10.6 percent in three months), sales have dropped from 58 to 54 to 46 to 37 to 30 to 26 since late 2014. In Fairfield ($720,000, down 2 percent in three months) sales in the past four quarters have been 107, 77, 56 and 35. In Pymble ($2.05 million, down 3.3 percent in three months) sales levels have dropped from 112 to 99 to 71 to 64 to 39 in the past five quarters.
Unit sales in CBD fringe suburb of Haymarket (median unit price $895,000, down 1.8 percent in three months) have dropped from 77 to 57 to 39 to 24 to 9.
In Parramatta ($565,000, down 1 percent) unit sales have declined from 172 to 165 to 107 to 95 in the past four quarters, while in Potts Point ($710,000, down 4.3 percent), unit sales have dropped from 110 to 66 to 47 in consecutive quarters.
There are myriad other examples, all charting the same pattern of decline in sales volumes, with prices starting to follow.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Not a single growth market in the Sydney metropolitan area: Terry Ryder

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Today I met with two of my lovely clients to celebrate the completion of their dual occupancy project. Friends Karen and Katie decided to do a joint venture (JV) with the goal of each ending up with a villa after subdivision.
The ladies were not new to property, they both own their own homes and at times an investment property or two but as corporate business women were understandably time poor.  Their goal was to build their property portfolio and share the experience of their first development.  By working together, they would have each other to bounce off any worries and fears as well as celebrate the major milestones.
Their JV worked like a dream as they each brought a different skill set to the project with Karen being focussed on fine detail and Katie on big picture.
"The one thing we didn't want was the development project and JV to impact on our friendship" Katie explained. 
Karen found that it was easier and less stressful going into the JV and her first development project than it was buying her first pre-built investment property.  “Katie and I trusted each other implicitly and we trusted Property Bloom’s experience” Karen said, “and that trust was proven true.  Without exception Property Bloom took care of all the details, keeping everything on track”.
Karen and Katie’s project commenced in October 2014 and was completed within fourteen months.
The moment the land was secured Property Bloom began the DA approval process enabling the DA to be lodged before settlement on the land.  There is a lot of work involved in getting a DA prepared -  detailed survey, geotechnical report and engineering just to get the plans finalised before then organising the Statement of Environmental Effects, Basix report, Bushfire report and plans and external materials and colours to be approved by the land developer. 
But that was the easy part.  The bigger challenge was getting the actual approval from Council!
Now, admittedly, Christmas did fall whilst the DA was in council so that didn’t help but we were surprised after so many weeks of processing and with the DA approval just within in our grasp (or so we thought) that the town planner then demanded a change to the entire roof design.  This involved changes to the engineer's drainage plan as well so it was not a small change.  We were furious with the lack of consistency as a previous and very similar DA sailed through council without this change request.
Once we had the DA approval in our hands we handed over the Construction Certificate approval to our private certifier who is markedly faster than council. There was no further hold ups and construction commenced in July 2015.
By Christmas 2015, less than 6 months later, the project was completed!
The villas came up beautifully and were quickly leased at a good rent with the ladies enjoying close to a 7% gross yield and very pleased with the equity created.
But that wasn’t the end of it.  The final, and biggest decision of all was……. how to divide the villas? Who would end up with which one?
 The villas were almost identical in size but to keep them unique they had different floor plans, different front facades and internal finishes and slightly different private outdoor space sizes.  After some discussion and internal agonising, it was decided that a flip of a coin would determine the outcome.  Let fate decide!  So in a nail salon Katie and Karen stood watching as a stranger they'd asked, flipped a coin into the air.
The villas will be split by way of a Deed of Partition which is a great way for joint venture partners to work together and then end up with a property each. Talk to your solicitor about how this is managed as you must ensure the Deed is formed before the subdivision of the villas is registered.
“The best things we liked about this project were the ease with which it was executed and the stunning look of the finished villas which we could easily imagine living in ourselves”, said Karen.   “All the details were managed by Property Bloom.  “I was doing an extension on my home at the same time and the stress I went through in organising that project was divorce material…. almost.  In comparison, the development of our villas happened in the background, any stresses and concerns absorbed by Jo and her team.  And the best part is that my friendship with Katie has never been stronger, our trust in each other proven.”
 
Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.
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Developing property and friendships: Jo Chivers

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The Hobart housing market has been the nation’s weakest performing capital city housing market for more than a decade.
There are now signs that the Hobart (and Tasmania’s) housing market may be in line for a steady improvement.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-1-2-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-1-2-580x208.jpg" alt="">
Over the 12 months to March 2016, home values in Hobart have increased by 4.8 percent while over the past two years values are only 4.5 percent higher highlighting that the value growth performance has been much stronger over the past year relative to the previous year.
The above chart shows the annual change in home values across all capital cities, with Hobart and the combined capital cities highlighted and the other cities in grey.  Although Hobart values have increased over the past year, the recent rise must be put in context, over the past decade home values in Hobart have increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent with values falling at an annual rate of -0.7 percent over the past five years.  Hobart’s decade growth performance is well behind Perth which has recorded the second lowest annual rate of growth over the period at 3.1 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-2-2-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-2-2-580x207.jpg" alt="">
It is interesting to look at the performance of the Hobart housing market in context with the performance of the Melbourne market. The previous chart shows that in 2003 and 2004 home value growth in Hobart surged. The rate of growth reached a peak of 57.9 percent annual growth in November 2003 and very shortly thereafter the growth performance in Hobart stalled and has been limited ever since.
The surge in Hobart dwellings came following a surge in Melbourne home values and at a similar time to which the rate of growth in Melbourne values began to slow.  Ever since the end of the last surge in home values in Hobart, Melbourne has recorded strong rises in home values while growth in Hobart has been minimal.
Melbourne has obviously recently seen a large surge in home values meaning that many home owners have substantial levels of equity in their property. Investment in the Tasmanian housing market which offers much lower home values and superior yields may be looking attractive for those in Melbourne looking for a lifestyle investment.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-3-2-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-3-2-580x207.jpg" alt="">
While value growth in Hobart is picking up, transaction volumes are relatively steady from where they were at the end of last year and virtually unchanged from a year ago.  In comparison, most other capital city housing markets are actually recording fewer property transactions than they were a year ago.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-4-2-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-4-2-580x206.jpg" alt="">
Looking at the current market, listings provides one of the best guides about the balance between buyers and sellers.  As listings move lower, buyers have less choice and vendors can be less flexible on their price expectations which can push values higher.  Over the 28 days to 17 April 2016 there were 376 newly advertised properties added to the Hobart housing market and 2,189 total property listings. 
New listings are 1.3 percent higher than they were a year ago and fairly flat over recent weeks.  Meanwhile, total listings are -26.2 percent lower than they were a year ago and as the table shows they are trending lower.  In fact, the number of listings is at its lowest level since October 2010.  With new listings slightly higher than a year ago and total listing much lower it suggests that there is limited new supply coming to the market with increasing demand which is causing total listing volumes to trend much lower.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-5-2-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-5-2-580x210.jpg" alt="">
One of the main drivers of the surge in Hobart home values in 2003 and 2004 was the positive migration trends for Tasmania.  The above table shows that in 2003 and early 2004 both net overseas and net interstate migration were positive.  The chart also shows that typically there is an outflow of residents of Tasmania to other states and territories while net overseas migration is usually positive.  Over the past few quarters, for the first time in a number of years, net interstate migration to Tasmania has been positive.  It is still early days but should this trend continue over the coming quarters it could be a positive for the Tasmania housing market.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-6-1-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-6-1-580x208.jpg" alt="">
People will generally only move to a new region if they are reasonably comfortable that they can find employment.  The unemployment rate in Tasmania has ticked up over recent months and job creation has slowed which may act as a deterrent to make the move to a market like Hobart.  However, if we look at 2003 and 2004 when home values were surging and migration to Tasmania was quite strong, job creation was stronger although the unemployment rate was in the high 6% to low 7% range compared to a similar 6.9% currently.  Keep in mind that some people will move to Tasmania and Hobart as a lifestyle choice so they may be able to do their current job remotely or may commute back to the mainland a few days a week / each month.  Furthermore, a proportion of people that move interstate would be retirees and therefore their decision is not reliant upon securing employment.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-7-1-580x213.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-7-1-580x213.jpg" alt="">
Tourism is likely to be a growing source of employment for those living in Tasmania.  According to data from Tourism Research Australia, international visitor numbers to Tasmania increased by 19.6 percent in 2015 and have increased by 53 percent over the past five years. Meanwhile, domestic overnight trips to Tasmania increased by 17.3 percent in 2015 and have increased by 40 percent over the past five years.  Should the ramp-up in tourism continue it will create even more employment opportunities in the local economy.
When you look at the housing and economic indicators for Hobart it looks like the market is well positioned to see an increase in the rate of housing demand and subsequently home values over the coming year.  Of course Hobart also has the advantage of being a substantially more affordable housing market than all of the other capital cities.  Any of these indicators could change and most importantly if job creation picked up pace and the unemployment rate fell it would provide further positives for the local market.  Nevertheless, it looks as if the fundamentals are in place for a long-awaited improvement in value growth for the Hobart housing market.
 Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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