<p data-end="256" data-start="0"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.</p>

<p data-end="446" data-start="258">The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.</p>

<p data-end="645" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="448">Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.</p>

<p>The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.</p>

<p>The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”</p>

<p data-end="626" data-start="350">Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.</p>

<p data-end="928" data-start="628">“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”</p>

<p data-end="1147" data-start="930">Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.</p>

<p data-end="1510" data-start="1149">“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”</p>

<p data-end="1510" data-start="1149"><img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.</p>

<p>Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.</p>

<p>The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.</p>

<p>The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.</p>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
<p data-end="305" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.</p>
</section>


Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

<p style="text-align:start">The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.</p>

<p>The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.</p>

<p>Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.</p>

<p>The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.</p>

<p>As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.</p>

<p><img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" /></p>

<p>The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.</p>

<p>An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.</p>

<p>The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;</p>

<p>It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.</p>

<p>Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.</p>

<p>“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.</p>

<p>“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.</p>

<p>“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.</p>

<p>“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”</p>


Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

<p>Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.</p>

<p>A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.</p>

<p>Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.</p>

<p>“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.</p>

<p>Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.</p>

<p>“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.</p>

<p>The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.</p>

<p>It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.</p>

<p>The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.</p>

<p>One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.</p>

<p>Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.</p>

<p>The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.</p>

<p>Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.</p>

<p>Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.</p>

<p>Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.</p>

<p>“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”</p>

<p>Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.</p>

<p>Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.</p>

<p>Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.</p>


400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

<p>Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p>The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.</p>

<p>Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" /></p>

<p>“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.</p>

<p>The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”</p>

<p>The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" /></p>

<p>The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.</p>

<p>According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.</p>

<p>“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.</p>

<p>A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.</p>

<p>Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" /></p>

<p>All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.</p>

<p>The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.</p>


Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

<p>Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.</p>

<p>The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.</p>

<p>Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" /></p>

<p>Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.</p>

<p>The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.</p>

<p>"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.</p>

<p>The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.</p>

<p>The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" /></p>

<p>Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.</p>

<p>Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.</p>


First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

Residential Market

<html><body>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Housing investment in Australia has generally been a successful, largely one-way bet over many years. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Although this has been the case, home values have fallen in the past, are currently falling in some capital cities and will almost certainly fall again in the future.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">As can be evidenced in the accompanying charts, in most instances across combined capital cities, the Index has been rising, in fact from December 1995 to November 2015. Combined capital city home values have increased by a cumulative 330.5% and values fell in 2008 and again between 2011 and 2012. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">During 2008, combined capital city home values fell by -6.1% between March and December. Home values fell by -6.5% between March 2011 and May 2012. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">While the Index shows a certain set of trends, it’s important to remember that it is largely influenced by Sydney and Melbourne. In fact, combined capital city home values have increased by 8.7% over the 12 months to November 2015 however, only Sydney and Melbourne have recorded value growth stronger than that level. Values have also been declining over the past year in both Perth and Darwin.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/11/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-11%20at%2010.31.04%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/12/11/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-11%20at%2010.31.04%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Over the period from December 1995 to November 1995, all capital cities have seen values increase while each city has seen periods where values fall. Across the cities, the cumulative value increases have been recorded at: </span></p>
<p>• 330.1% in Sydney </p>
<p>• 421.4% in Melbourne </p>
<p>• 259.4% in Brisbane </p>
<p>• 261.2% in Adelaide </p>
<p>• 293.0% in Perth </p>
<p>• 208.0% in Hobart (from Sep-97) </p>
<p>• 180.1% in Darwin (from Apr-99) </p>
<p>• 258.7% in Canberra.</p>
<p>Of all the cities, Melbourne has led by recording the strongest rate of growth over the period followed by Sydney. Growth in Perth has been stronger than in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra where cumulative growth has been remarkably similar. While home values have risen significantly in each city, value falls have occurred.</p>
<p>There have been periods where values have fallen in a particular city but not others. As an example, from mid-2004 Sydney values started falling while in other cities, the rate of growth just slowed. Sydney home values fell by - 8.2% between March 2004 and December 2005. They then took until March 2009 to eclipse and remain above March 2004 levels.</p>
<p>Over the past few months we have seen early signs of value falls in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets. Based on our data, we can see that falls have previously occurred, and will no doubt happen again, however, the question is how large; of course no one knows.</p>
<p>Given that investor activity has been at a record high, building approvals have also hit record highs and record high levels of household leverage there is a possibility that falls could be larger than what we have seen in the past. Note: Adjacent, the table looks at the two most recent periods of decline across the combined capital cities: the financial crisis in 2008 and as the RBA started to lift interest rates in 2011. The data shows the financial crisis saw a short, sharp fall in values and a fairly rapid recovery. The second period saw, in most instances, a much larger decline and a much longer period for recovery. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/11/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-11%20at%2010.26.15%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/12/11/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-11%20at%2010.26.15%20AM.png" alt="" width="871" height="520"></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/11/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-11%20at%2010.30.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/12/11/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-11%20at%2010.30.04%20AM.png" alt=""> </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em> </span></p>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Home values will certainly fall again: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p>For the fifth consecutive week, CoreLogic RP Data is expecting over 3,000 auctions to be held across the combined capital cities, with 3,028 scheduled this week, down from 3,252 last week and the year’s record number of auctions the previous week (3,729).</p>
<p>There will be less capital city auctions this week, relative to last year, when there were 3,511 over the corresponding week.</p>
<p>Despite auction volumes falling on a broad capital city level, the same cannot be said for Adelaide, the only capital city where auction volumes are set to rise, with 151 Adelaide auctions scheduled this week, compared to 138 last week.</p>
<p>Melbourne auction volumes, down from 1,622 last week to 1,601 this week, have remained relatively steady, while across Sydney, auction activity will be significantly lower this week (902), compared to last week (1,070).</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Capital </strong></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>City Auctions this week:</strong></span></p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Sydney</strong><strong>: </strong><strong>902</strong>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Melbourne: </strong><strong>1,601</strong>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Brisbane: </strong><strong>179</strong>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Adelaide: </strong><strong>151</strong>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Perth: </strong><strong>61</strong>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Canberra: </strong><strong>116</strong>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Summary of last week’s results:</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/9/20151210-clearance-rate-table.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/12/9/20151210-clearance-rate-table.jpg" alt="" width="773" height="440"></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/9/20151210-clearance-rate-graph.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/12/9/20151210-clearance-rate-graph.jpg" alt="" width="789" height="335"></p>
<p>Last week, the combined capital city final auction clearance rate was recorded at 57.3%, the lowest reading since February 2013. Much of the overall weakness was driven by Sydney, where only 52.9% of the reported auctions were sold last week, dropping from 56.2% the previous week.</p>
<p>Melbourne’s final auction clearance rate was 63.3%, over 10 percentage points higher than Sydney’s, but still lower than the cities result over the week prior (65.9%).</p>
<p>Adelaide was the only other capital city where the final auction clearance rate didn’t fall below 60%. There were 130 Adelaide auctions reported from a total of 138 that were held.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/9/20151210-sub-regions.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/12/9/20151210-sub-regions.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
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Adelaide the standout mover in capital city auction volume: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p><span>Expat buyers should be aware that many of the homes available for sale are not yet listed on the internet.</span></p>
<p><span>These are properties that estate agents or buyers’ agents know have vendors willing to sell in the new year that have yet to advertised.</span></p>
<p>Peter Kelaher of PK Property Search and Negotiators says that a large proportion of the transactions negotiated by his firm are silent sales. </p>
<p>“Agents call us to say that a property is going on the internet in a month’s time,” says Kelaher.</p>
<p>Despite the softer auction statistics, inner Sydney agents are recording a significant amount of sale activity away from the Saturday auction limelight.  </p>
<p>Anthony Birdsall at Laing Real Estate said his agency was seeing good stock sell through private treaty negotiations.</p>
<p>The penny was dropping that inner Sydney apartment prices don’t seem to be going down in a hurry as competition remains for premium offerings, he said.</p>
<p>Some agents in some suburbs around Sydney have noted fewer overseas buyers, meaning less competition for expats in their acquisitions.</p>
<p>It can be traced back to then Treasurer Joe Hockey's crackdown on illegal fo<span>reign property investment, with new rules now meaning substantial fines for real estate agents, conveyancers and migration agents who knowingly assist illegal purchases. </span></p>
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Expats warned top listings might not yet be online

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<p>Once again we see a fast backtrack by many commentators who predicted a strong easing of real estate prices for the March quarter of 2016.</p>
<p>Then again there are those (like myself) who predicted an about-turn in property prices which is precisely what has happened. For the last four years the December quarter has been the worst performing quarter which can be simply put down to human fatigue.</p>
<p>For those who read the property markets wrong they then seamlessly move to Plan B – the debt debate and yes, Australia’s housing market does have a $1.45 trillion debt blister.</p>
<p>This debate is then marinated with housing affordability, which I must admit has everyone confused given the apparent lack of care or interest. Sydney and Melbourne, and Brisbane to a lesser extent, are flooding the markets with new developments, although in the majority of instances these properties are sold direct to non – resident Australians, so how does that work?</p>
<p>Take Sydney for instance – in the 1980’s the average house price ratio to median yearly household income was 3.0. In 2005 this ratio increased in Sydney to 8.5 and in 2015 it climbed to a staggering 12.2. I can’t see this breaking the back of house prices but I do see plenty of trouble ahead for the Sydney apartment market which has approximately another 22,000 new apartments in the investment pipeline over the next 24 months.</p>
<p>This is the market that requires closer examination and should not be confused with the family house market as the two are distinctly opposite.</p>
<p>We also need to look under the bonnet of the Australian economy to see what is driving it more particularly GDP. Sydney is way ahead of the pack with a 23.3 percent share overall Sydney has outperformed the rest of Australia for the last three years. Next in GDP is Melbourne with 17.7 percent, then Brisbane at 9.6 percent, Perth at 9.5 percent and then Adelaide at 4.6 percent.</p>
<p>If you look at the Green Square development (currently under construction) located between Alexandria and Moore Park in South Sydney – this development will deliver 27,276 apartments so they would be hoping that 60 percent are going to owner occupiers, as if! It is more like 80 per cent to property investors this will send rents in that area spiraling down as there will be a market flood when they all hit the market seeking tenants.</p>
<p>Investor beware! Australia is currently locked in to its biggest apartment development boom ever seen and the big problem is that these developments are congested into the same post codes and are not spread, so a cold can quickly turn to pneumonia.</p>
<p>What scares me the most is that we can trace this boom starting back in December 2008 when the ratio of foreign buyers was moved from 50 percent of new developments to 100 per cent. This ignited property developers and respective state and territory governments to move over night without any analysis to high density.</p>
<p>Again without analysis these developments have been contained into developing areas – so what if the foreign buyers decide not to proceed as the vast majority of these developments are yet to be completed?</p>
<p>It will be property investor mayhem because it’s one big Ponzi scheme totally reliant on the good faith of foreign investors completing on their transactions. Melbourne has another 123,622 apartments in the pipeline and Sydney has 88,013 and there are plenty more on the way awaiting approval. In the case of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland the state governments are only focused on millions and millions of dollars in stamp duty and land tax.</p>
<p>Sorry to tell you but nobody has a contingency plan should these new developments start to collapse, because if they do the prices will drop 30 per cent minimum overnight.</p>
<p>So whilst housing affordability is directly a responsibility of government I, like many, are not feeling comfortable at how they plan to make it more affordable. With Sydney and Melbourne building the lion’s share of apartments we should also note they are contributing 41 per cent of the Australia’s GDP.</p>
<p>This is precisely the conversation our elected politicians need to be having and this should have started years ago. We may be building an apartment revolution but just like the share market we could be looking at the biggest ‘shorting’ in the property market we have ever seen before too.</p>
<p>Very, very happy to be wrong on this.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 72</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 54</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 48</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 61</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 42</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 45</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 6</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 4</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 6</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 17</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 28</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 28</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 15</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 6</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 36</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26</p>
<p>*Number of apartments on the market this week – 25</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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Are we about to see our property investors short the market? Robert Simeon

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Property developing can throw many different challenges at you and one thing I have learnt in this industry is there is always a solution to a problem.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> The trick is to understand what possible problems may arise and preparing yourself for them.  Unfortunately things don’t always go to plan and as a project manager it is up to us to make sure the development gets through as efficiently as possible.</span></p>
<p>One of the biggest areas for problems is not allowing enough for building works. </p>
<p>When pricing a development and running feasibilities, it is important to understand that your building estimate is an organic creature. By this I mean the building estimate you start with will nearly always be different to the one you end with.  It will evolve throughout the process as you obtain more and more details.  Once you have all the fine details, the building estimate can be finalised to the fixed price builder’s contract. </p>
<p>If architecturally designing our villas, we generally follow this process:</p>
<ol>
<li>Concept plan – this will show the number and size of villas on the land, but not much detail</li>
<li>Development Application (DA) plans – enough information is included on the plans to satisfy  council</li>
<li>Construction Certificate (CC) plans –more detail, including engineer drainage and slab design</li>
</ol>
<p>The starting point for our build estimate will be based on similar projects that we have recently completed and an allowance for the different site.</p>
<p>This progresses to an estimate based on the Concept Plan.  Still a very ‘loose’ estimate as there is usually not enough detail on the Concept Plan for the builder to have all information he needs.  The build estimate we have at this stage will tell us whether we are tracking within budget.  If not, we can make the necessary changes required, perhaps reducing the size of the villas working with both our builder and architect to design the right dwellings for our project to be successful.</p>
<p>Once the Concept Plan is approved, the architect will proceed to full DA plans.  It is here that much more detail is added and we will have our builder price the DA plans.  Again, this does not give us a final build cost but we will be getting closer to the expected outcome.  Once approved by our client, the DA plans are finalised and the DA is prepared.</p>
<p>During the DA process, council may request some changes to the plans, so it is important to understand we are still ‘evolving’ at this stage. We also need to review the Conditions of the DA Consent before we have more detail to finalise the build costs.</p>
<p>Once council have approved the DA, we will start to prepare the CC plans.  Engineers will be briefed and a drainage and engineered slab design or footings for the foundations will be produced. More detail is added to the CC plans, finalising levels and double checking schedules. </p>
<p>Before we lodge the CC plans with our private certifier we will have our builder issue a third costing. It is this costing that will give us the final build costs...well almost.  We still need to have the CC approved and ensure there are no further revisions to the plans required.  </p>
<p>After we have the CC stamped plans, our builder will issue their final tender and building contract. This will be a fixed price contract; however, there may still be a few items that will be ‘provisional’. They are usually some site works, removal of fill and retaining walls.  The builder may mark these items as provisional as they won’t know until works proceed exactly what the cost is. For instance, if rock is hit during the site cut, this will increase the site costs. If the site cut differs slightly to the plans, this may impact on the height of retaining walls.  So these ‘provisional’ items will be charged at actual cost whether it is lower or higher. Our clients often enjoy credits on their provisional items as it’s always best to over allow than under.</p>
<p>So you can see how the build estimate must evolve through the development process and until your development is completed, you really won’t know the exact cost.  It’s important you allow a contingency amount for any variations that may crop up along the way.  At Property Bloom we are happy to say that for many of our projects the end construction cost is lower than our original estimates. This is because our builder uses accurate allowances and because we’ve worked together for so long, we all understand what the cost is likely to be based on the typical, lower risk development sites we select for our clients.</p>
<p>As a developer, you will embark on a challenging journey from start to finish and the path you choose can be simplified with the help of a project manager to guide you along the way.  Always take the time to have full builder’s estimates done at each stage to avoid any nasty surprises. </p>
<p><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
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Why construction costs evolve: Jo Chivers

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<div><span>Sadly an inevitable consequence of the internet age for investors has been a focus on shorter and shorter timeframes. </span></div>
<div><span><br>While extra frequency of analysis can be interesting and fun, for most investors the best results will be secured by seeing the big picture and building a long term plan around it, particularly so in property investment which is ideally suited to a longer time horizon.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>When it comes to population and demographic projections, there are certainly plenty of cranks making forecasts, but if you're going to pay attention to any of them, then bugrudgingly it's got to be the cranks that determine policy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the short term to June 2019, the drivers of a rebound population growth from net overseas migration are clear enough, at least according to the latest available figures from the Department of Immmigration and Border Protection (DIBP). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">But what about for the longer term?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is often said that infrastructure investment is a key driver of property price growth, and this can certainly be the case whereby the multiplier effect of new projects generate economic activity, while infrastructure can also make certain suburbs a more appealing prospect. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, we have just been through a once-in-a-century resources investment boom, which temporarily caused a spike in dwelling prices in some towns, before they <a href="https://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/news/14137-6-mining-towns-go-from-boom-to-bust" target="_blank">crashed</a> again as supply responded and contractors skipped town. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Infrastructure investment is evidently only one part of the puzzle, and it needs to be coupled with a strong and sustainable growth in population, economic activity, and household wealth. I'd further add land supply constraints to that. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this context I took another read of Infrastructure Australia's latest estimates and projections, so let's take a 60-second look at what they say. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Population a key driver of economic growth" </span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The "three Ps" model of economic growth applied by the Australian Treasury has population growth at its very core: </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In the 2015 Intergenerational Report population growth was assumed to drive for <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">almost half</span></strong> of the projected economic growth, measured in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), over the next four decades.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Projected population figures quoted in April 2015 by the Infrastructure Australia audit background paper were somewhat higher than the equivalent figures released in 2008, and tend to mirror previous projections by the Australian Bureau of Statistics reasonably closely. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>Notably, it is clearly articulated that state governments are planning for their capital cities to continue taking on a continually greater share of the state's population, particularly in the most populous states.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>As such, going forward an ever greater share of the actual population growth must correspondingly take place in the capital cities, as confirmed by the projections. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>These are telling numbers indeed, but for mine it's the texture provided by the Government that is the really interesting bit:</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"Population growth is likely to have its greatest impact in Australia’s cities. Around the globe, cities are increasing their share of national population. Australia is already one of the most urbanised countries in the world. It would be unusual – if not remarkable – if Australia were to chart a materially different path from its past (or where the world is heading), at least over the next 15 years or so."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>Looking forward</span></span></strong></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>On the medium level projections, by 2031 Australia’s capital cities will be home to 6.4 million extra people (around 43.4 per cent more than 2011). The growth to 2061 (15.7 million persons) is around 1 million persons more than the current combined population of all of Australia’s capital cities.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Note in particular the enormous projected growth in Greater Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth respectively (click to enlarge).</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Or looked at graphically.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Looked at another way, the gradients of capital city projections show how the four largest cities are expected to garner the great bulk of the projected growth in population.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A5-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A5-1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Infrastructure plans and peri-urbanisation</span></strong></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>Projected population growth between 2011 and 2031 is evidently huge - the equivalent of an entirely new Melbourne and Brisbane combined! - while t</span><span>he projected growth to 2061 is more than all of the existing population of the capital cities cobbled together.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>However, according to the Australian Government, regional development and decentralisation policies tend to have a short life span, and thus regional population growth is forecast to decline as a share of the pie:</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>"It is unclear whether governments and the Australian community would support material ongoing interventions over the long term to encourage decentralised growth. P</span><span>roposals for investment in regional areas need to be supported by rigorous and transparent analysis."</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>A handful of areas which are close to the capital cities might be expected to grow appreciably, being "peri-urban" locations with social and economic linkages to the capital cities. These are cited as follows:</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>Notes the Government: "In the absence of employment growth in these locations, ‘journey to work’ trips to and from the capital city may increase appreciably."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Infrastructure investment: cities are critical</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The infrastructure audit background paper could hardly have been more explicit in its conclusions, so to wrap up I will simply quote it directly:</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"Within the capital cities, the location of new development and population growth will be critical. While the cost of providing new infrastructure in ‘greenfield areas’ is substantial, the cost of retrofitting or augmenting some infrastructure (for example transport links in tunnels) in established areas can also be high. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>With a few exceptions, the population case for expanding infrastructure networks in regional areas is less obvious. Arguments for investment in infrastructure in those areas will be driven more by social considerations."</span><br><span><br></span>While I don't agree with the intended policy - I don't originally hail from a capital city myself after all - it is abundantly clear that infrastructure investment will be focussed very heavily on the capital cities. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Population growth and infrastructure crucial for property price growth: Pete Wargent

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<p>I'm not yet clear whether there has been a revision to the Residex house price index methodology.</p>
<div>But, for what it's worth, here are the latest median prices, which have now been disclosed.</div>
<p>The Sydney median house price hit a new high of $1,117,500 in December 2016.<br><br>The Sydney median unit price increased to a new high of $725,500.</p>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/10/RESI1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br>The median unit price rose by 7.4 percent in 2016, while the median house price increased by 7.1 percent.</p>
<div>One of the metrics I've been tracking has been the change in Sydney unit prices when priced in Chinese yuan terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see in the chart below, Sydney unit prices have increased by only 15 percent since this cycle began for offshore Chinese buyers. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/RESI2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/10/RESI2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Rising prices have therefore not been much of a deterrent for Chinese buyers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, regulatory measures have been.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Upon discussion this week with developers in Brisbane, it's clear that activity from China has, if not halted, slowed up dramatically since last year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rates on hold</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other news, there were few surprises in the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Decision, whereby the official cash rate was left in hold at 1.50 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The RBA expects reasonable growth in the economy in the December quarter, and expects growth to remain at around 3 per cent over the next couple of years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The real cash rate now sits just below zero.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/REAL%20CASH%20RATE.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/10/REAL%20CASH%20RATE.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </em><a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2"><em>AllenWargent</em></span></a><em> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </em><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2"><em>blogger</em></span></a><em>. </em>
</div>
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Sydney median prices rose in 2016: Pete Wargent

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<p>Tasmania is a fine example of the adage that it’s easy to get a bad reputation but very hard to lose it. </p>
<p>The days of Tasmania being the basket case economy of Australia are gone, as are the days when investors steered clear of Hobart as a place offering no growth.</p>
<p>I’ve been advocating the merits of investing in Hobart for the past 18 months or so, based on the marked improvement in the state economy and the status of Hobart as the capital city with the lowest prices, tightest vacancies and highest rental yields.</p>
<p>Hotspotting’s regular research into sales activity has noted the rise in sales volumes in Hobart (and also in Launceston and Devonport) this year.</p>
<p>I’ve felt a bit like a voice in the wilderness, given that Hobart and Tasmania is a pretty hard sell. It’s very hard to shift entrenched attitudes, particularly as your average punter isn’t terribly well informed.</p>
<p>So how refreshing to see the latest research-based report from Simon Pressley of Propertyology. </p>
<p>He says: “Hobart is Propertyology’s tip to be Australia’s best-performed capital city property market in 2017."</p>
<p>“An under-rated economy, limited properties for sale, the tightest vacancy rates in Australia, a more controlled housing supply pipeline than mainland cities, and increased buyer activity are expected to drive property prices and rents higher.</p>
<p>“We have been actively investing in Hobart for a while and our buyer’s agents have observed first-hand price growth of 8 to 10 per cent over the past 12 months. We can only see buyer activity further intensifying and forcing stronger growth over the next couple of years.”</p>
<p>And Pressley makes this forecast for next year: “On an all-things-being-equal basis, double-digit price growth is well and truly on the cards for Hobart in 2017.”</p>
<p>He says the significant retraction in properties listed for sale has made it increasingly difficult for our buyer’s agents to find suitable properties for investors. “Properties are generally selling within a week of listing and often going for prices well above our own appraisal range. The market is red hot.”</p>
<p>All this is happening on the back of improving economic performance. There is now a long list of reports from name brands which have noted the improvement in the underlying fundamentals.</p>
<p>The latest to confirm that view is CommSec’s <em>State of the States</em> report, which notes Tasmania’s population growth is the fastest in five years and the state no longer ranks last overall. </p>
<p>“Tasmania has improved from 8<sup>th</sup> to 7<sup>th</sup> on the rankings,” it says. “Tasmania is 4th ranked on two indicators and 5<sup>th</sup> on three indicators. Annual growth on home lending is the strongest in the nation at 10.3%. Both home loans and home prices are lifting.”</p>
<p>State Treasurer Peter Gutwein says the report card is the best in five years. “But there is still a long way to go,” he says. He’s right, but a significant turnaround has been achieved already.</p>
<p>Another positive indicator for Tasmania is the level of infrastructure and construction work. The Deloitte Access Economics <em>Investment Monitor</em> report says: “The value of Tasmanian engineering projects under way has stayed well above $1 billion and there’s just under $1 billion worth of planned projects in the pipeline.”</p>
<p>The biggest under way is the $535 million Midland Hwy update. Work worth $239 million is ongoing on the freight rail revitalisation statewide and there is a $40 million extension of the Hobart Airport runway. The report says commercial building is also “coming along well,” with $1.5 billion worth of projects under way and a similar pipeline of planned work.</p>
<p>“The $689 million Royal Hobart Hospital project is still the largest project,” it says. “Planned work has been boosted, with University of Tasmania plans to move its science-technology-engineering building to Hobart’s CBD, at a cost of $400 million.”</p>
<p>The value of projects under way is up 27 percent to $2.9 billion. Adding planned projects, the total is $4.98 billion.</p>
<p>Tourism is big for Tasmania, with strong results for 2015-16. For the first time Tasmania had over one million interstate visitors, who spent $2 billion. Airline capacity rose by 173,658 new seats between the state’s two main airports and Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. TT-Line ran 33 extra day sailings over peak season, with visitors arriving on Spirit of Tasmania growing 17 percent.</p>
<p>In the 2015-16 summer, there were 59 cruise ship port calls in Tasmania — delivering 163,328 passengers and crew. Big growth in cruise ship visits is forecast for the next two seasons. The tourism industry supports 36,700 jobs or 15.3 percent of total jobs, and contributes $2.55 billion to the economy (10 percent of gross state product).</p>
<p>All of that provides a solid foundation on which real estate can continue to grow in Hobart, Launceston and Devonport.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Solid foundations for real estate growth in Hobart, Launceston and Devonport

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<p>Australia is a nation full of highly confused real estate consumers. They’re befuddled because there is so much conflicting data on matters relating to residential property, especially on prices.</p>
<p>The confusion arises because of the widespread acceptance of anything labeled “research” as fact. Media these days is driven by under-resourced journalists and there’s a growing tendency to recycle press releases as articles, without the scrutiny that once was common in the industry.</p>
<p>Back in the day, publishing a press release (which, by definition, is someone’s propaganda) verbatim was a sacking offence. These days it’s mainstream journalism, especially in real estate. Most of the online “news” services that send out daily bulletins consist almost entirely of contributed material. The journalistic content is close to zero. </p>
<p>Any press release from a name research company featuring price data will be published without question. If the press release says Sydney prices are still soaring, that will be the headline in multiple media outlets, including some of our biggest newspapers.</p>
<p>The problem is that price statistics are often very rubbery figures. One of the ways we know this is by comparing price data from multiple sources. The differences and contradictions are quite stark. </p>
<p>Recently I wrote a report which focused on the latest price data for the eight capital cities from four different research sources. The areas where they disagreed were far more numerous than the ones where they were broadly in concert.</p>
<p>Two sources claimed Sydney prices were still growing at an annual rate around 11 percent, while the other two said the annual growth rate was down to 1.2 percent and 2.6 percent.</p>
<p>One source said Darwin house prices were unchanged while another recorded an 8 percent decline. Two sources said Canberra apartment prices were rising and the other two reported they were falling. All four agreed that Darwin apartment prices were falling but the rate of decline ranged from 0.2 percent to almost 10 percent.</p>
<p>Annual price growth for Melbourne houses ranged from 7 percent to 15 percent. One said the capital city average was 2.7 percent annual growth in house prices while another claimed it was 8.2 percent.</p>
<p>There are myriad other examples.</p>
<p>We know that different research companies have different methodologies and parameters, but consumers are entitled to think that the movement of prices in a particular location is a mater of fact: when media reports one week that they’re rising and the next that they’re falling, confusion is understandable.</p>
<p>It seems no one in media has noticed the discrepancies.</p>
<p>And now we have the Reserve Bank revealing that it disregarded price data from one of its regular sources. Apparently a change in methodology resulted in the research entity overstating price growth in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>At the time those figures were published, I challenged them because I thought they were clearly wrong. They contradicted known trends in the market and also conflicted with data from other more credible sources. </p>
<p>But media outlets across the nation published those erroneous figures as fact. There were numerous headlines declaring the fading Sydney boom had been reactivated somehow, miraculously, in contradiction of all previous data.</p>
<p>Inevitably this was accompanied by observers shouting about bubbles, affordability crises and young Australians priced out of the market, doomed to a lifetime of renting.</p>
<p>Worse, one of the big-name global ratings agencies rushed out a warning about the re-inflation of the Australian house price bubble, based purely on a single month’s price figures from one research source. It says something about the credibility of the ratings organisation that the basis for them issuing international press statements was so flimsy.</p>
<p>The message for real estate consumers is to take real estate statistics with several grains of salt. It’s alarming how many people base investment decisions on published data from a single source, reported verbatim by an unquestioning media.</p>
<p>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></p>
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Property price statistics are often rubbery figures: Terry Ryder

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<p>Approaching the halfway mark of the year with record low interest rates and consumer confidence back sees the market remaining strong with increases in values through several sectors of the market, including the real estate market in NSW's Coffs Harbour, say valuation firm Herron Todd White in their July 2016 residential market report.</p>
<p>Buyers in the $500,000 bracket can expect to purchase good quality five to 20 year old 3- or 4-bedroom, 2- or 3- bathroom homes on varying size sites located within two to three kilometres of the Coffs Harbour CBD and local beaches.</p>
<p>Standard new project style 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom homes range between $450,000 and $550,000 in the smaller central Coffs estates and southern suburbs of Bonville and Boambee East.</p>
<p>The more modern upmarket estate known as The Lakes at North Boambee Valley (two kilometres from the CBD) starts at around $500,000 for new 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom homes.</p>
<p>"If you are after more bang for your $500,000, the older established areas south of Coffs Harbour at Boambee East and Toormina will get you a five to 30 year old larger better quality 4- to 5-bedroom home with double garage and pool," says HTW.</p>
<p>Traditionally, these areas are of a more modest standard with values in the $300,000 to $450,000 range. These areas are well located close to the Pacific Highway for access north and south and are also located within two to three kilometres of the popular Sawtell Beach and shopping precinct. The major shopping centre at Centro Tormina is underpinned with K-Mart, Woolworths and Coles. Schools include primary and public high schools plus nearby St Josephs College and Southern Cross University.</p>
<p>The older homes within the northern beaches suburbs of Korora, Sapphire Beach, Moonee Beach and Emerald Beach have always been solid investments in the $500,000 to $600,000 bracket which buys 20 to 30 year old properties of good size located close to beaches and not far from major facilities in Coffs Harbour.</p>
<p>One area to watch is the beach side township of Woolgoolga, 30 kilometres north of Coffs Harbour. A traditionally strong agricultural area with good infrastructure, the recent bypass upgrade of the Pacific Highway and opening of Woolworths shopping centre only adds to the appeal.</p>
<p>Look to the southern side of Woolgoolga at Sandy Beach for the cheap beachside properties. Price points are generally under $450,000 for one to 30 year old homes of modest construction, with esplanade position properties going between $500,000 and $650,000. This area is still under developed with easy access to Woolgoolga and Coffs Harbour. The recent purchase of a large beachside development site will see substantial future residential development taking place which will lead to better infrastructure.</p>
<p>The Coffs Coast locality saw little capital growth over the GFC period, however the past 12 to 18 months has seen the market bottom and the start of the recovery.</p>
<p>"Traditionally we have not experienced the high levels of capital growth of the major cites due to the fairly low economic base within the region. Limited job opportunities does put a cap on the growth experienced in the mid to upper price brackets, while the majority of growth is centred under the $500,000 mark," HTW concludes.</p>
<p>As an example of recent affordable sales, Property Observer found a three-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-coffs+harbour-122873066" target="_blank">15 Sunnyside Cl, Coffs Harbour, NSW 2450</a> (above) which traded hands for $365,000. To put things in perspective, the median house price in Coffs Harbour was $425,000, according to CoreLogic </p>
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