<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.

A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.

Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]

“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.

From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.

The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]

Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.

A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.

Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]

Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.

“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.

Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]

Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.

The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.

“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”

The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.

The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]

Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.

The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

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</main>

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

Recession

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Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans, dubbed the rate whisperer for his consistently accurate forecasts on the RBA's cash rate calls, has predicted a 2020 recession in Australia.
"On a quarterly basis we expect the economy will contract in both the first and second quarters by 0.3% and 0.3% respectively", Evans said.
Evans however noted Australia won't come out of 2020 in negative growth.
"[The decline will be] followed by a rebound of 1.4% and 0.8% respectively in the third and fourth quarters", Evans continued, which would put the economic growth in 2020 at 1.6 per cent.
Evans says it will technically be a recession, which is defined as back to back quarters of negative growth, however he says given the forecasted second half of the year pick up it should be characterised as a "major disruption".
Evans says they expect the unemployment rate to hold below six per cent over the period. Australia's last two recessions saw the unemployment rate rise from six per cent to 11 per cent.
The veteran chief economist also says there's a great level of uncertainty surrounding the forecasts due to the unpredictable course of the coronavirus outbreak.
"The economy will be dealing with the impact of the virus when it is in a relatively fragile state with growth in 2019 at 2.2% compared to potential of 2.75%", Evans said.
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UTZSyY8Ef-o" frameborder="0" width="360" height="315"></iframe> Evans speaking on the prospect of a recession. Source: Westpac
He believes the 0.3 per cent contraction in the March quarter will be driven by a 10 per cent decline in services exports such as education, tourism and transport, as well as a 3.5 per cent decline in goods exports.
Evans says of most importance in the 0.3 per cent forecast decline in the June quarter will be a 1.2 per cent contraction in consumer spending.
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"The most vulnerable components of consumer spending (hotels; restaurants and cafes; recreational services; and air travel) are forecast to contract by two per cent in the March quarter to be followed by a 13 per cent contraction in the June quarter."
Evans did however add that consumer spending on products such as food and other essentials will be up 3.4 per cent.
But by the September quarter the contraction will have ended.
“Our figuring is on the basis that by the September quarter the direct impact of the virus and the policies required to contain it will have eased significantly. We expect that development on a global basis providing a significant boost to financial markets.”
The third quarter would show a 1.4 per cent increase in GDP, which would be followed by a 0.8 per cent increase in the final quarter of 2020.
“Based on this growth profile we expect that the unemployment rate will increase to a peak of 5.8 per cent in the second half of 2020; that will be marked by a period of no new jobs growth, followed by outright job losses, to be followed by a sequence of months with jobs growth beginning to recover in the fourth quarter,” Evans said.
“Partly easing the pressure on the unemployment rate will be a fall in the participation rate as workers become discouraged by the deteriorating jobs market.”
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Westpac's Bill Evans tips 2020 recession

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Australia’s three-decade run of near continuous economic growth is set to end, with treasury warning of a hit to growth of “at least” 0.5% in the first quarter of this year, potentially followed by a “prolonged downturn”.
If it came to pass, treasury’s preliminary assessment would most likely mean economic growth vanished and went backwards for several quarters, producing what is commonly known as a “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-really-lucky-country-talk-of-recession-as-australia-takes-world-record-20170601-gwiiwl" target="_blank">technical recession</a>” – two quarters or more in which income and spending shrink.
Providing the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/speech/opening-statement-march-2020-senate-estimates" target="_blank">assessment</a> to a Senate estimates committee on Thursday morning, treasury secretary Steven Kennedy said the COVID-19 coronavirus would take “at least half a percentage point” from economic growth during the current March quarter and more beyond that.
In recent quarters economic growth has been about half a percentage point.
Quarterly GDP growth
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318783/original/file-20200305-127918-160glbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318783/original/file-20200305-127918-160glbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Treasury’s preliminary estimate of a hit of at least half a per cent took into account only the direct impacts of the virus on tourism and education, and some exchange rate effects.
It did not take into account broader economic effects or the impact of the coronavirus on supply chains.
The half a percentage point hit to growth would come on top of a hit of 0.2% from the summer bushfires, most of which would be felt in the March quarter.
<hr>
 Read more: <a href="https://theconversation.com/support-package-gains-shape-as-gdp-turning-point-swamped-132969">Support package gains shape as GDP turning point swamped</a> 
<hr>
Dr Kennedy, a former nurse who retrained as an economist, stressed that the impact of the bushfires would extend well beyond the immediate hit to economic growth.
“Evidence from past episodes suggest bushfires can lead to long-lasting physical and mental health effects and destroy cultural heritage,” he said.
“Research by the University of Melbourne after the Black Saturday bushfires in 2009 found mental health problems continued for three to four years.”
The bushfires made clear the increased probability of such events in a world of climate change.
“The CSIRO predicts climate change will make bushfires more likely, as fire weather patterns worsen as a result of an increase in weather patterns with hot and dry winds and fuel becoming drier.”
Deeper, wider and longer lasting than SARS
As of Wednesday there had been 91,868 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide and 3,131 deaths, most in China. COVID-19 had spread to 77 countries.
When the virus first emerged in China in December, the treasury saw it through the lens of the 2002-04 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) pandemic.
It was now clear COVID-19 would be different.
The impact of SARS took on a V shape, a relatively contained reduction in activity, mostly in Asia, followed by a quick bounce back.
The economic impact of COVID-19 is likely to be deeper, wider and longer when compared with SARS.
It will create more risk of a prolonged downturn, and fiscal support will be needed to accelerate the recovery of the economy, especially once the health and health management effects of COVID-19 begin to fade.
The first phase of the economic support package to be delivered next week would target assistance to the businesses and sectors most affected in order to keep people in jobs.
After that, support for aggregate demand (overall spending) would become more important.
“A very substantial part of the impact is actually confidence among consumers and the business sector because of the uncertainty,” Dr Kennedy said.
“Frankly, effective health management will be very important. The economy is actually quite solid. One of the key things will be to to explain to the community how well placed the economy is to manage such a short-term shock.”
The shock would last for some time but the economy would “recover on the other side”.
Keeping workers employed would be very important.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133053/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/economic-growth-near-an-end-as-treasury-talks-of-prolonged-coronavirus-downturn-133053">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Economic growth nearing an end as Treasury talks of prolonged coronavirus downturn: ANU's Peter Martin

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Urban Taskforce CEO, Tom Forrest, today urged the NSW Government to be bold in their plans for reform of the NSW planning system as new ABS data on housing construction shows that NSW has fallen far behind Victoria and risks sleepwalking into a recession.
Across Australia, the value of construction work on new housing in 2019 declined in New South Wales (-15.5 per cent), Queensland (-10.1 per cent), South Australia (-7.4 per cent), and Western Australia (-14.0 per cent). By contrast, the value of work done on new housing increased: by 0.1 per cent in Victoria, 5.4 per cent in Tasmania and 9.6 per cent in the Australian Capital Territory
NSW has the slowest planning system in the country for every single type of development application according to the NSW Productivity Commissioner, Peter Achterstraat. 
Today’s ABS figures show that in the final three months of 2019, the dollars spent on the construction of new housing in NSW plummeted, and that is before the impact of the bushfires, subsequent floods and the Corona Virus are taken into account. This resulted in a dismal decline in NSW new home construction for the year of 2019.
Today’s ABS figures are a wake-up call for the NSW Government.  The NSW economy needs a stimulus now with new Commonwealth and State funds urgently needed for infrastructure to unlock private sector investment in housing. 
Only increased supply will create downward pressure on housing prices. Rather than increasing taxes on new housing, the NSW Government needs to boost its own spending to unlock private sector investment.
I welcome Premier Berejiklian’s calls for major reforms to the planning system. 
Planning reform is urgently needed because the current planning system is allowing NIMBYs to wreck our economy.  Local groups have successfully pressured Councils and the NSW Government into opposing new housing and apartment development across Sydney. This has slowed up the process, reduced the number of approvals and will result in a shortage in new housing supply.
This downward trend started prior to the State election in 2018 and has gotten worse. This is now having a direct impact on GST revenue, stamp duty revenue, employment and investment.  If urgent steps are not taken to reverse this trend, housing prices will skyrocket while the economy tanks – a worst case scenario.
TOM FORREST is the CEO of Urban Taskforce
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Is NSW sleepwalking into recession? Urban Taskforce's Tom Forrest

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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<div>Just to add to all the other woeful data released today, the preliminary index of commodity prices was down by -3.5 per cent in November, following on from a substantially (downwardly) revised -6.6 per cent decline in October. </div>
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<div>Productivity figures released today were the worst in at least 25 years, and you can follow much of the other underwhelming news <a href="https://jamesfostermacro.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">here</a>. </div>
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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and the Board will need to work its way through a barrage of dire figures, including the ongoing nosedive in dwelling construction.</div>
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 <div>Futures markets are unsurprisingly pricing further easing, with the economy, inflation, and wages growth all so mired in the doldrums.</div>
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<div>The question the Board will need to consider is: what exactly would waiting until February achieve?</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Is a recession brewing? Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The claim that Australia has gone 28 years without a recession since the early 1990s recession ended in 1991 has been subject to some criticism in recent times with the economy sliding into a “per capita recession” where economic growth has been below population growth. Some have latched on to a recent Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis analysis that noted the 28 year claim should be “taken with a grain of salt” because “Australia has had three recessions since 1991 when looking at GDP per capita, the most recent one being from the second quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019.”
GDP per capita
It’s true that Australia’s relatively strong population growth helps grow the economy. And in terms of living standards it’s GDP per person or per capita that really matters and the recent slowdown in GDP growth to 1.4% year on year which is below 1.6% population growth is a big concern. I even wrote a note after the release of the December quarter GDP data entitled “Australia enters a per capita recession”. But it does not measure up as a conventional recession.
Recession definitions The conventional definition of recession is two or more consecutive quarters of falling real GDP.
On this basis Australia’s last recession ended back in 1991, ie 28 years ago. However, if GDP per capita is looked at then Australia has had three per capita recessions since 1991 using the two or more consecutive quarters of decline approach – in the September and December quarters of 2000, the March and June quarters of 2006 and the September and December quarters of 2018. There was also a per capita recession in 1985-86.
However, while it may be reasonable to call them “per capita recessions” they don’t compare at all to the scale of the conventional recessions in 1981-83 and 1990-91 that saw far deeper and longer falls in GDP and per capita GDP.
But what about through the GFC? To be sure, Australian confidence had a recession-like fall through the global financial crisis (GFC) reflecting the dyer global news at the time and annual growth in GDP per capita fell, but there was only one quarter of contraction in both GDP and GDP per capita and there was no recession like slump in employment or rise in unemployment. What’s more the fall in per capita GDP at the time of the GFC was trivial compared to that in the US, Europe and Japan suggesting again that other things must have helped Australia beyond strong population growth
Wider definitions of recession
Nor would the per capita recessions of 1985-86, 2000, 2006 and 2018 comply with wider definitions of recession such as that of the US National Bureau of Economic Research that defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For example, the next chart shows employment growth and unemployment since 1980 with per capita recessions shaded.
Only the per capita recessions of 1981-83 and 1990-91 which were also conventional recessions saw a significant slump in employment (both of around 4%) and sharp rises in unemployment (with both seeing around a 5 percentage point rise).
The other per capita recessions saw very little or no fall in employment and only small or no rises in unemployment. In fact, through the last per capita recession of 2006 jobs growth remained solid and unemployment fell, which makes a nonsense of calling it a recession particularly given it was in the midst of the mining boom! The recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s were horrendous events in terms of mass job losses, corporate collapses and financial failures. The per capita recessions of 2000, 2006 and more recently do not compare.
Which brings us to the smell test. For Australians like myself who lived through the early 1980s and early 1990s recessions it’s doubtful that they would recall the per capita recessions of 1985-86, 2000 or 2006 as real recessions.
Which is why they are often just referred to as slowdowns. The 2000 slowdown occurred because of the pull forward of spending due to the start up of the GST and also the end of the Olympics and the 2006 per capita recession can hardly be seen as a recession given it was in one of the biggest booms in Australian history, ie the mining boom. And a common question in relation to the recent episode is “things aren’t that bad, so why is the RBA cutting?” (The answer being that waiting for a real recession is likely leaving it too late.)
Consistent with this, consumer and business confidence was bouncing around average levels in 2000, 2006 and more recently in contrast to the slump of the early 1990s.
It’s not just strong population growth
While strong population growth helps grow the Australian economy as the Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis notes, it didn’t stop real recessions in 1981-83 and 1990-91. Going into the early 1980s recession population growth was 1.8% year on year and going into the early 1990s recession it was 1.5% year on year. So, if strong population growth didn’t stop conventional recessions in the past, other factors must have been playing a roll in heading off conventional recessions over the last 28 years.
These include:
1. economic reforms of the 1980s and 1990s that made the economy more flexible;  2. the floating of the $A that has seen it fall whenever there is a major economic problem providing a shock absorber for the economy; 3. desynchronised cycles across industry sectors and states; • strong growth in China that helped export demand through the GFC; 4. counter cyclical economic policy – like stimulus payments and monetary easing that helped in the GFC; and 5. good luck – which can never be ignored lest hubris set in!
But what about through the GFC?
To be sure, Australian confidence had a recession-like fall through the global financial crisis (GFC) reflecting the dyer global news at the time and annual growth in GDP per capita fell, but there was only one quarter of contraction in both GDP and GDP per capita and there was no recession like slump in employment or rise in unemployment. What’s more the fall in per capita GDP at the time of the GFC was trivial compared to that in the US, Europe and Japan suggesting again that other things must have helped Australia beyond strong population growth.
Concluding comment
The slowdown in Australian growth to below the level of population growth at a time of weak wages growth and high underemployment is a real concern and highlights the need to boost growth and productivity.
However, a per capita recession on its own is not the same as a real recession, and the three seen over the last 28 years do not compare to the recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s in terms of their impact on jobs, economic welfare and confidence.
Which is why they are normally just referred to as growth slowdowns as opposed to being recessions. To be sure the risk of conventional recession in Australia has increased – although for the reasons noted here I think it remains unlikely. But there is clearly more to Australia’s 28 years without a conventional recession than just strong population growth.
Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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Has Australia really had three recessions in the last 28 years? Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
A recession is formally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or negative growth in annual terms.
Australia has not had such an event since the early 1990’s. However there is ample evidence that the economy is weak:
1. GDP per capita has contracted over the year. 2. Consumer spending per capita has contracted over the year. 3. Private domestic demand has contracted over the year.
In terms of how the economy might “feel” to households, in particular, these measures certainly point to a downbeat economic climate.
But this is not a recession with the associated extreme pain for households, businesses, and institutions.
So why has Australia not experienced a technical recession since the early 1990’s?
Strong population growth: potential growth is measured as growth in the work force adjusted for productivity growth. Using the global benchmark of 1% for productivity growth, Australia’s potential growth rate is around 2.75% compared to the US of 1.75% and Europe of 1.2%. A high potential growth rate is some protection against a technical recession but, as discussed above, when measured on a per capita basis, Australia has experienced periods of negative growth.
At the times of major external shocks – GFC is the best example – Australia’s fiscal position has been in solid shape to accommodate a strong (“go hard; go households”) policy response which is further complemented by the automatic stabilisers (via lower tax and higher welfare payments). Australia’s budget position went from a surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2007/08 to a deficit of 4.2% of GDP in 2009/10. Australia’s surplus is currently estimated at around 0.5% of GDP in 2019/20 – lower than in 2007/08 but a surplus no less.
A flexible exchange rate – in the GFC and in the Asian Financial Crisis (1997/98) the AUD adjusted into the USD 0.50’s to offset the impact of the shock.
A flexible labour market also helped during the more recent shocks – employers tended to adjust hours worked rather than staffing levels, cushioning some of the ‘second round’ impacts on household incomes. The more rigid industrial relations systems that prevailed in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s made it more difficult to absorb cyclical shocks.
Compensating cycles: most recently, when the mining boom turned down the Australian economy was boosted by the state government infrastructure boom and the residential (mainly high rise) construction boom.
When it appeared that Australia was headed for two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction in 2008 Q4 and 2009 Q1, domestic demand did contract in those quarters (low point of the GFC) but GDP expanded in 2009 Q1 due to the impact on net exports of China’s massive post GFC stimulus package. With the media speculating on a technical recession, the announcement that Australia had avoided a technical recession saw a spectacular (8%) boost in Consumer Sentiment.
Government policy, apart from the fiscal stimulus, also helped Australia avoid a recession in the GFC as banks, whose access to offshore liquidity was under huge pressure, were able to purchase a Commonwealth government guarantee that allowed the rollover of existing short term debt (recall that in that period banks’ wholesale funding was around 60% of total liabilities)
Read the Westpac's full report '<a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/September/er20190913BullARecession.pdf" target="_blank">Australia's record recession free run'</a>.
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac
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Australia's record recession free run looks set to continue: Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Since President Trump tweeted about imposing new tariffs on China, global equity markets have gone into a tailspin.
Trump’s more recent announcement that the new tariffs would be <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49287494" target="_blank">delayed</a> has not calmed the markets, with very large falls in most major stock markets.
Another factor particularly spooking the markets in recent days has been the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-amid-talk-of-recessions-our-progress-on-wages-and-unemployment-is-almost-non-existent-121813" target="_blank">inversion of the yield curve</a>” in the United States.
The yield curve is a graph showing the relationship between interest rates earned on lending money for different durations.
Normally, someone who lent to the government or a corporation for one year (by buying a one-year government or corporate bond) would expect to get a lower interest rate than someone who lent for five or ten years, making the yield curve upward-sloping.
An inverted curve slopes down
A simple way to get an idea of the slope of the yield curve is to compare a short-duration government interest rate for a two- or three-year government bond with the rate on a ten-year government bond.
In Australia the ten-year government bond rate has just fallen to a record low 0.891%, only slightly above the three-year rate at around 0.7%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/19/the%20conversation%201.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/19/the%20conversation%201.png" alt="">
CNBC.
In the US in recent days the ten-year bond rate has fallen to the point at which the ten-year rate is below the two-year rate – so the yield curve is inverted.
What has made the markets so nervous is that there has been a yield curve inversion before each of the past seven recessions.
The graph below plots the difference between the US ten-year government bond rate and the US two-year government bond right back to the 1970s.
When the difference is negative (when the ten-year bond rate slips below the two-year bond rate), the line moves below zero.
It has done it just before each of the US recessions, which are also marked.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/19/the%20conversation%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/19/the%20conversation%202.jpg" alt="">
Sometimes the recession follows soon after the line slips below zero, and sometimes there is a delay. Interestingly, in the case of the most recent recession the yield curve inversion was quite small, and began some time before the global financial crisis.
So does correlation imply causation? Reserve Bank deputy governor Guy Debelle said on Thursday that <a href="https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/rba-s-debelle-challenges-us-recession-signal-20190815-p52hc7" target="_blank">this time is different</a>.
We should certainly hope so.
There are good reasons to think that this time it will be different.
No recession this time?
One reason is that although central bank controlled rates are near record lows, most central banks have also announced words to the effect of “doing what it takes” to support the economy. With the markets expecting further rate cuts, long-term rates might simply reflect this rather than expectations of a recession.
Of course, it could be that markets see central banks’ cuts as a sign that they see a recession coming. It’s hard to tell.
Another reason to think it might be different this time is that President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Many economists think the latest rate cut took place for that reason rather than because of economic fundamentals.
The simple point here is that a lot of things are different this time.
Many economists, like myself, view recent moves by central banks to cut rates as <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-rate-cut-tuesday-here-are-four-reasons-why-the-reserve-bank-shouldnt-jump-116590" target="_blank">unproductive</a>.
The gist of these arguments is that the Australian economy has reasonably strong fundamentals, and any weakness can be better dealt with by measures other than rate cuts. Among them would be measures to boost productivity.
In the US, by contrast, there are indeed reasons to be concerned about a recession.
The trade war with China has already been very destructive, and the political uncertainty of Trump, high debt levels and other structural weaknesses are creating problems.
A US-only recession?
The last time the US entered recession was September 2008. During that quarter global trade fell off a cliff, but in the year that followed Australia’s economy grew by a solid 4%.
Supporting Australia’s economy was a very large Chinese stimulus package that led to very strong demand for Australian resources.
A recession in the US in the next year or two would again lead China to consider all options. Traditionally those options have included much more funding for resource intensive infrastructure.
While that is the most likely path that China would take, it probably has less financial room to supercharge infrastructure than in 2008. That’s enough of a reason for Australians to very concerned if the US goes into recession.
In the end though it is well to remember that Australia’s economy is still in a reasonably strong position compared to others. Unemployment is low, wages growth is higher than it was at 3.1%, public debt is low and other fundamentals are reasonably sound.
But predicting recessions is notoriously difficult.
There are some who have successfully predicted nine of the last two recessions in Australia, and those pundits are very pessimistic now!
I tend to be more of the view that the probability of a recession in Australia in the next year or so is higher than it has been since 2008, but a recession is far from the sure thing that yield curve readers might suggest.
Mark Crosby, Professor, Monash University.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-an-inverted-yield-curve-why-is-it-panicking-markets-and-why-is-there-talk-of-recession-121975" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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What is an inverted yield curve? Why is it panicking markets, and why is there talk of recession?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Legend has it that, when asked by US President Richard Nixon in 1972 what he thought about the impact of the French Revolution, Chinese Premier Zhou En Lai replied: “it’s too early to say”.
Waiting for progress on wages and unemployment in Australia may not be a multi-century enterprise (the French Revolution was in 1789) but Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe’s <a href="https://rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-08-09" target="_blank">testimony</a> to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics on Friday was reminiscent of Zhou’s caution:
"In the central scenario that I have sketched today, inflation will be below the target band for some time to come and the unemployment rate will remain above the level we estimate to be consistent with full employment.
"While this remains the case, the possibility of lower interest rates will remain on the table. The board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if there is additional accumulation of evidence that this is needed to achieve our goals of full employment and inflation consistent with the target. Time will tell."
That was a week ago, but since then “<a href="https://youtu.be/VhkmB5OzvQ0" target="_blank">old man time</a>” has given us two less than completely encouraging pieces of information.
Wage growth isn’t really climbing
On Wednesday the Bureau of Statistics released the June quarter <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6345.0" target="_blank">Wage Price Index</a> which showed wages rising 0.6% for the quarter and 2.3% on the year.
It provides two things to worry about.
First, wage growth isn’t rising. Annual growth has remained unchanged for three quarters.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288130/original/file-20190815-136208-8bizez.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288130/original/file-20190815-136208-8bizez.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6345.0" target="_blank">ABS 6345.0</a>
Second, the growth that is there is driven more by the public sector (0.8% over the quarter) than the private sector (0.5%).
As the Bureau’s chief economist Bruce Hockman puts it:
"Wage growth continues at a steady rate in the Australian economy on the back of strong public sector growth over the quarter. The most significant contribution to wage growth this quarter came from the public sector component of the health care and social assistance industry, where a number of large increases were recorded in Victoria under a plan to ensure wage parity with other states"
Things might improve when and if the Reserve Bank interest rate cuts of June 5 and July 2 start changing the way consumers and employers think.
But the Reserve Bank cash rate has been at a record low of 1.5% since September 2016. All through those three years Governor Lowe has told us to be patient, that soon wage growth will climb and unemployment will fall.
We’ve had little progress on wages, and since January none on unemployment.
Unemployment isn’t really falling
On Thursday the bureau followed up with the latest <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0" target="_blank">unemployment figures</a>.
Although job creation was strong in July – 24,600 jobs were added to the economy, 15,100 of which were full-time – the trend unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3%, from 5.2%.
The “trend” is a smoothed out extension of the way the way the Bureau of Statistics algorithm thinks the rate is going.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288128/original/file-20190815-136186-f1ybgp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288128/original/file-20190815-136186-f1ybgp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0" target="_blank">ABS 6202.0</a>
In part it is going up because more people not previously regarded as unemployed are looking for work (and not finding it).
It isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it is also exactly what would be expected when wage growth was sluggish. Households are doing what they can to assemble more income.
The world economy is in trouble
Global economic conditions are concerning. This week Europe’s second-biggest economy <a href="https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2019/08/PE19_304_811" target="_blank">Germany</a> announced that its economy shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2019, putting it on track to meet what some people call the technical definition of a recession.
Figures out of China regarding industrial production were also worrying, with factory output climbing more slowly than at any time in the last 17 years.
The US stock market climbed 1.5% on Tuesday after the Trump administration announced it would delay some of its new tariffs on China, but slid twice that amount the next day on the news from Germany and China.
The fall in stocks led to a flight to the relative safety of government bonds. This caused the yield on 10 year US government bonds to fall below that of the 2 year bonds, a so-called “inverted yield curve” of the kind usually seen before a recession. The last time the US yield curve inverted was before the US Great Recession of 2008.
None of this is good for Australia. With roughly 20% of our economy powered by exports, we need the countries we export to to be doing well.
As Reserve Bank deputy governor Guy Debelle put it in a <a href="https://rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-dg-2019-08-15" target="_blank">speech</a> on Thursday:
"Australia also has significant exports to China in both tourism and education. To date, these have been broadly unaffected by the slowdown in the Chinese economy. But a further significant slowing in the Chinese economy and household incomes would clearly pose a risk."
There’s no telling how low rates will go
There have been plenty of <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-surplus-no-share-market-growth-no-lift-in-wage-growth-economic-survey-points-to-bleaker-times-post-election-110315" target="_blank">competing views</a> about the state of the Australian economy over the past few years.
Not long ago most economists who thought interest rates would move <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-surplus-no-share-market-growth-no-lift-in-wage-growth-economic-survey-points-to-bleaker-times-post-election-110315" target="_blank">thought they would rise</a>. The Reserve Bank governor suggested the same.
But its increasingly clear that <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/big-project-spending-a-good-way-to-kickstart-stagnant-economy-20150819-gj2i7v" target="_blank">secular stagnation</a> is gripping advanced economies around the world. In response, the US Federal Reserve has recommenced cutting rates and markets predict it will cut <a href="https://rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-ag-2019-08-13" target="_blank">another full percentage point</a> by this time next year.
Markets also expect the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank to cut rates significantly.
The Bank’s “<a href="https://theconversation.com/rba-update-governor-lowe-points-to-even-lower-rates-121690" target="_blank">house position</a>” on unemployment is that we can go down to 4.5% before worrying about triggering inflation (not that there’s much sign of that happening).
Another way to say that is that unemployment has to reverse course and get down to a barely-precedented 4.5% before there’s much hope of the Reserve Bank meeting the inflation target it is meant to be aiming for.
Perhaps the most important question facing the Australian economy is how aggressively the bank will act to attempt to get it there and to keep the economy afloat. Time will tell.
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-amid-talk-of-recessions-our-progress-on-wages-and-unemployment-is-almost-non-existent-121813" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Amid talk of recessions, our progress on wages and unemployment is almost non-existent

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Introduction
A common concern ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) ended a decade ago is that the next recession is imminent.
This concern has become more pronounced recently as yield curves – ie the gap between long-term bond yields and short-term borrowing rates - have inverted (or gone negative) as in the US.
This concern has taken on added currency now that the US economic expansion is the longest on record. Surely it must be living on borrowed time?
This matters a lot. The US is the world’s biggest economy in US dollar terms (at 24% of world GDP), its share market is around 56% of global share market capitalisation and being central to the world’s financial system it sets the direction for global share markets, including Australia’s.
What’s more, while share corrections (say falls of 5-15%) and even mild bear markets (with say a 20% decline that turns around quickly) are common, the key driver of whether they turn into a major bear market (where shares fall 20% and a year later are down another 20% or so like in the GFC) is whether we see a recession or not –notably in the US (see the table in Correction time for shares?).
So, whether a US recession is imminent or not is critically important in terms of whether a major bear market is imminent.
Longest but not the strongest
The cyclical bull market in US shares is now over 10 years old. This makes it the longest since WW2 and the second strongest in terms of percentage gain. And according to the US National Bureau of Economic Research the current US economic expansion that started in June 2009 is now 121 months old and compares to an average expansion of 58 months since 1945.
This makes it the longest on record (since 1854). See the next two tables. But it’s noteworthy that it’s not the strongest.
In fact, GDP and employment growth through this expansion have averaged around half that seen in the average post war expansion. Both have been the second weakest.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/amp%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/24/amp%201.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/amp%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/24/amp%202.jpg" alt=""> 
Absence of excess
Numerous growth slowdowns and recession scares – notably around 2011-12, 2015-16 and since last year - and post GFC caution have kept this expansion slow.
A key lesson of past economic expansions is that “they do not die of old age, but of exhaustion”.
The length of economic expansions depends on how quickly recovery proceeds, excess builds up, inflation rises and the central bank tightens.
The current US economic expansion may be long, but it has been slow. As a result, it’s been taking longer than normal for excesses that precede recessions – around cyclical spending, debt and inflation - to build up.
First, cyclical spending in the US as a share of GDP remains low. In particular, there has been no “boom” in spending on consumer durables, business or housing investment resulting in a glut that needs to be worked off as occurred prior to all of the recessions in the last 50 years. All are around or below long-term averages as a share of GDP, in contrast to highs seen prior to past recessions. Basically, no boom = no bust!
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/us%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/24/us%201.jpg" alt="">
Second, growth in private sector debt has been modest and well below the surge seen prior to the recessions of the early 1990s, early 2000s and 2008-09 as household debt growth has been weak. While corporate debt is up, the ratio of profits to interest payments is well above average and the ratio of corporate debt to assets is low. (Yes, public debt to GDP in the US is a concern but high public debt has not been a precursor to recession and the public sector’s taxing and money printing abilities mean it’s a totally different risk to excessive private debt.)
Finally, there is no sign of the surge in inflation that traditionally precedes recessions. Sure, the labour market has been flashing warning signs with unemployment and underemployment having fallen sharply, warning of a wages breakout and inflation pressure.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/us%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/24/us%202.jpg" alt="">
However, there is arguably still spare capacity in the US labour market (the participation rate has yet to see a normal cyclical rise) and wages growth around 3% remains very low.
The last three recessions were preceded by wages growth above 4%. And industrial capacity utilisation at 78% is well below levels that in the past have shown excess and preceded recessions.
Reflecting this, along with intense competition which has been accentuated by technological innovation, core inflation has fallen below target.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/us%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/24/us%203.jpg" alt="">
So, while the Fed has raised interest rates since late 2015 it has not slammed the brakes on with tight monetary policy.
Past US recessions have been preceded by the Fed Funds rates being well above inflation and nominal growth, whereas that’s not the case now. See the last chart. And given perceived risks to growth and the concern that it will be easier to deal with a rise in inflation than deflation, the Fed is now moving to cut rates again anyway.
The bottom line is that the excesses that normally precede US recessions – a spending boom, surging private debt and/or rising inflation/tight monetary policy – are absent.
So while US economic expansion may be long in the tooth it’s far from exhausted.
But what about the inverted yield curve?
The inverted US yield curve that started in the last few months is certainly a concern as they have preceded past US recessions.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/us%204.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/24/us%204.png" alt="">
However, there are several reasons not to be too concerned. First, the lag from yield curve inversion to recession averages around 15 months (which takes us to second half next year), there have been numerous false signals and following yield curve inversions in 1989, 1998 and 2006 shares actually rallied.
Second, various factors may be inverting the yield curve unrelated to growth expectations including still falling long-term inflation expectations, low German and Japanese bond yields and higher levels of investor demand for bonds post the GFC as they have proven to be a good diversifier to shares in times of crisis. Third, the retreat from monetary tightening has been a factor behind the rally in bonds but this is positive for growth.
Finally, other indicators are not pointing to imminent recession – as noted above we have not seen the sort of excess that normally precedes recession.
The bottom line
Issues around the trade war and tensions with Iran certainly pose a risk to US growth and could drive short term volatility in share markets.
But the combination of easing monetary conditions globally, the removal of caps on US Government spending for next year (which threatened a mini “fiscal cliff”) as part of a deal to suspend the debt ceiling and the absence of the excesses that contribute to recessions would suggest that US - and hence global and Australian - shares are likely to be higher in 6-12 months’ time.
Shares up and bond yields down – which is right?
This brings us back a puzzle that has worried some this year: share markets are up but bond yields are down...surely one market must be wrong?
But this occasionally happens in the investment cycle. Basically, shares having fallen last year on growth fears are looking through short-term growth uncertainties and focusing on lower for longer interest rates and bond yields making shares relatively cheaper and the likelihood that monetary and fiscal stimulus will ultimately boost economic growth.
By contrast bonds have been focussing on falling inflation and lower for longer short-term interest rates.
So, there is logic behind both shares and bonds rallying at the same time. Ultimately though if global growth picks up over the next 12 months, bond yields will start to rise again – but it’s likely to remain gradual and constrained.
Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital.
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The longest US economic expansion ever - does this mean recession is around the corner? Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
For some time our view has been a less upbeat on the Australian economy than the consensus and notably the RBA.
The reasons were simple.
The housing cycle has turned down and this is weighing on consumer spending.
And this is at a time when the risks to the global economy have increased as the trade war threat has ramped up again.
All at a time when high levels of underemployment are keeping a lid on wages growth and, along with technology and competition, inflation.
Consequently we have been expecting rate cuts this year which have now commenced and have further to go.
We see a strong case for more fiscal stimulus to help the RBA in boosting growth and see an increasing risk that the RBA may have to use some form of quantitative easing to achieve its inflation target.
But the gloom around the Australian economy seems to have gone over the top lately with all the talk around rate cuts adding to the sense of malaise and more and more talk about a recession being inevitable.
Surely it can’t be that bad!
And why despite all this doom and gloom is the share market at an 11- year high, up 16% year to date and just 4% shy of its 2007 resources-boom high.
There must be some positives around.
And there are!
So, to inject some balance into the debate around Australia here is a list of positives.
They are partly why we don’t see Australia as being about to plunge into recession.
1. Australia’s current accounts deficit has collapsed
As a share of GDP, it’s the lowest since the 1970s as high iron ore prices have combined with solid growth in export volumes and pushed the trade balance into a record surplus. The current account deficit is the gap between what we spend as a nation and what we earn – so its near disappearance means we are less dependent on foreign capital. This is a big one given that a big scare of the 1980s in Australia was that the large current account deficit and rising foreign debt would lead to a major crisis, collapse the economy and require an IMF bailout. Like with most doomster stories on Australia, we are still waiting!
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/29/oliver%201.jpg" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital
2. The Australian dollar helps stabilise the economy The $A is down 38% from its 2011 high and is likely to fall further and this provides a shock absorber for the Australian economy as a lower $A makes Australian businesses that compete internationally more competitive – eg higher education, tourism, mining, manufacturing, agriculture.
3. The drag from falling mining investment is over The big drag on growth (which was up to around 2 percentage points at one stage) as mining investment fell back to more normal levels as a share of GDP is likely over and mining investment plans look to be moving up again.
4. There is scope for extra fiscal stimulus The Federal budget is nearly back in surplus and while we have had a long run of deficits our public finances are in good shape compared to the US, Europe and Japan.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/29/oliver%202.jpg" alt="">
Source: IMF, AMP Capital
Some fiscal stimulus is already on the way with tax refunds for low and middle income earners. While the Government is focussed on achieving a surplus it seems to be recognising the case to do more to help the economy with talk of bringing forward infrastructure spending.
5. Infrastructure spending is booming Infrastructure spending is booming. While growth in public capex may peak this year, NSW has flagged another round of asset sales to fund new infrastructure spending and suggestions to bring back Joe Hockey’s asset recycling program (that saw the Federal Government provide a financial incentive to states to sell existing assets and use the proceeds to plough back into new infrastructure spending).
6. There is no sign of panic property selling Despite the falls in property prices we have seen no sign of a “crash”. Non-performing loans are still relatively low even in Perth where prices are down nearly 20%. There has been no significant panic selling. The switch for many from interest only loans to principle and interest has not seen mass defaults or mass selling. And the combination of the removal of the threat to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount along with rate cuts has seen buyer interest return.
7. The political environment remains sensible While the Federal election has been analysed to death, the bottom line is that Australians as a whole were not prepared to support a populist agenda of higher taxes on the “top end of town”, substantially increased public spending and redistribution. Just like they weren’t prepared to support a more right-wing free market agenda in 1993. Australia is not immune to the populism seemingly sweeping the world, but it seems to be limited to a relatively minor influence. Maybe it’s the moderate climate, maybe it’s the lack of extreme inequality, maybe it’s the compulsory voting system that keeps motivated extremists in their place in favour of a sensible centre.
Whatever it is – economic policy making in Australia could always be better (economists would love to see a greater focus on economic reform) but it’s generally pretty sensible.
8. Population growth remains strong Australia’s population growth at around 1.5% pa is strong and supported by a high fertility rate and high levels of immigration. While it’s far from a world beater – with the top 10 countries by population growth seeing growth of between 3 to 5% pa - it is at the high end of comparable countries and roughly double the OECD average and of the US and UK and is faster than India.
Of course, strong population growth is not without issues –around integration, congestion, the environment, adequate housing and infrastructure. And ultimately in terms of living standards it is economic growth per person (or per capita) that matters not total growth and lately per capita GDP has gone backwards. But solid population growth also has significant benefits in terms of supporting demand growth in the economy, preventing lingering oversupply (as today’s excess – say Sydney apartments – can quickly turn into tomorrow’s shortfall) and keeping the economy dynamic. It also means that while Australia’s population is ageing, the problem is far less challenging than in most advanced countries as by comparison Australia with a median age of 37 is relatively young and it has a relatively low old age dependency ratio.
9. The RBA can still do more While the official cash rate is at a record low of 1.25%, it can still go lower and we think it will, whereas in Europe and Japan rates are already at zero (or just below). Our view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 0.5% beyond which it will probably conclude it’s of little benefit as it will make it harder for banks to pass on rate cuts as they will have more bank deposits at zero and so cutting mortgage rates would mean reduced profit margins and probably less lending.
But the RBA can still do quantitative easing – if needed. This basically involves seeking to boost the economy by injecting more cash into the economy using printed money. The lesson from the US, Europe and Japan was to go early and go hard. Japan and then Europe left it a bit too late, but the US went early and has achieved more success with QE.
QE as practiced there – using printed money to buy assets on the hope that banks would use the cash to lend, people would borrow and investors would help the economy by taking on more risky investments – may help. But it may not be the most efficient approach (as much of the cash just ended up in bank reserves) or the most equitable (to the extent it boosted prices for shares and other risky assets that are disproportionately held by high income/wealthier people).
A better option in terms of QE may be to use printed money to finance fiscal stimulus – maybe by directly buying bonds issued by the government. This is a radical step. The Austrian economists would scream hyperinflation! But they did with QE in the US a decade ago too and we are still waiting. In any case the problem is a lack of inflation and the risk of deflation. But it would work in terms of boosting spending in a fair way. It could involve either government spending on things like infrastructure (which both adds to demand and the economy’s productive potential) or tax cuts or “cheques in the mail” with use by dates.
But bear in mind Australia is a long way from needing to do this – we are not in recession so it’s really a debate about what can be done ahead of time which is actually healthy. Better this than wait for a crisis to hit then scramble on what to do.
Australian shares – what’s going on? Which brings us to the strong Australian share market. Much of the recent surge in the Australian share market reflects strong gains in mining stocks on the back of the strong iron ore price, strong demand for high yielding stocks as bond yields have plunged and the post-election bounce. And if global shares have a further setback on the back of trade fears then Australian shares will be impacted too. But it’s also worth noting that the Australian share price index has underperformed global share markets for almost a decade now reflecting tighter monetary policy from October 2009, the surge in the $A into 2011, the end of the commodity price boom, worries about a property crash and a mean reversion after Australia’s 2000 to 2009 outperformance. Many of these factors have run their course, have reversed or have been factored in by the share market so maybe the decade-long underperformance by Australian shares is coming close to an end.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/29/oliver%203.jpg" alt="">
Source: Thomson Reuters, AMP Capital
Concluding comment The point about all this is that while Australian growth may be going through a rough patch and this could go on for a while yet, there is a bunch of things going well for the Australian economy and there is plenty of scope for more monetary and fiscal stimulus. So – barring a significant global downturn threatening our export earnings big time – recession is unlikely, and it would be wrong to get too gloomy on Australia.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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