<p>A new chapter in Sydney’s urban renewal story begins today as NSW Premier Chris Minns officially turns the sod for Dawn, the fifth stage of Sekisui House Australia’s $5 billion <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> masterplanned community.</p>

<p>Developed in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties and built by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-melrose-park-bundil-boulevard-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Dawn</a> will deliver 368 parkside residences, forming part of one of NSW’s largest privately owned urban renewal projects.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The milestone marks the start of the next phase in transforming Melrose Park into a new community delivering over 5,500 homes, a mixed-use town centre, 50,000 sqm of open green spaces and several future schools.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=352993]</p>

<p>Kazunori Ito, Group CEO and Managing Director at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a>, said the milestone symbolises the company’s ongoing commitment to job creation, housing supply and sustainable community building.</p>

<p>“This moment represents more than just the start of construction," Ito said.</p>

<p>"It is about building a new urban heart for Sydney’s geographic centre. Dawn and the wider Melrose Park masterplan will generate thousands of jobs, deliver quality homes for families and help more people realise the dream of home ownership.</p>

<p>“We are proud to be supporting the NSW government’s housing targets and expanded Home Guarantee Scheme, which came into effect on 1 October. The program is already opening doors for more first home buyers at Melrose Park, many of whom are using the scheme to purchase with a five per cent deposit and no Lenders’ Mortgage Insurance.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=334163]</p>

<p>Since its introduction, the enhanced federal government’s Home Guarantee Scheme has given first home buyers greater access to the property market. With value thresholds in New South Wales now lifted to $1.5 million, buyers can secure a new apartment in Melrose Park sooner, reducing the burden of saving a 20 per cent deposit and removing costly mortgage insurance premiums.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Dawn precinct, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/group-gsa">Group GSA</a> embodies Sekisui House’s global “Love of Humanity” philosophy, integrating sustainability, technology and liveability into every design detail. Residents will enjoy abundant green space, energy efficient features and a direct connection to the future Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 and Melrose Park Town Centre set to open in 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=354734]</p>

<p>As part of the NSW government’s long-term commitment to the local community, work recently commenced on the new Melrose Park High School, a state-of-the-art education facility designed to accommodate more than 1,000 students. The school will be within walking distance to Dawn and will become a cornerstone of the precinct’s family friendly environment.</p>

<p>Melrose Park’s smart community vision includes EV charging stations, environmental monitoring systems with Western Sydney University and NBN node to residence connectivity. With over $216 million in planning contributions committed to local and state infrastructure, this project supports NSW’s 30-minute city goal, ensuring residents can live, work and play within easy reach of key employment and lifestyle hubs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=334049]</p>

<p>Dawn’s contemporary residences all have secure basement parking and start at $649,000 for a one-bedroom apartment and $1.259 million for three-bedrooms.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The project will also overlook Central Park which spans nearly two hectares and features barbeque and picnic areas, children’s play zones and walking tracks ideal for active residents and pets.</p>

<p>Residents will enjoy exclusive rooftop community facilities including private rooftop gardens, beautifully landscaped podium parks and internal courtyard gardens.</p>

<p>Construction of Dawn, which is being led by regarded builder Decode, will be completed by Q1 2028, adding to Sekisui House’s pipeline of more than 9,000 homes and apartments under development across Australia.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145496]</p>


Staff Writer

Premier Chris Minns turns sod at Dawn Melrose Park as construction commences

<p>Southport is set for one of its tallest new apartment developments in recent years with the approval of Malua, a 32-level tower just one row back from Broadwater.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/malua-18-22-norman-street-southport-qld-4215">Norman St tower</a> will comprise 151 apartments within the Southport Priority Development Area. The three adjoining lots, totalling 1,215 sqm, are currently occupied by three two-storey buildings, one a house, and two duplexes.</p>

<p>The majority of the apartments will be two-bedders (126), with just five one-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedrooms. There will be three basement levels, three podium levels, and a rooftop communal space with a pool, gym, private dining areas and business hub facilities.</p>

<p><img alt="Malua" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21ab3437-de39-432c-b991-f33227b606dd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.41.37%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_dOcjcvmSMyn6utzzviBVCAgDp5ZCo_N" /></p>

<p>There had been prior approval for a 14-storey building, however those plans became financially unviable.</p>

<p>“The proposed development seeks to resolve financial viability issues of the existing development approval by providing a higher density development with a more favourable unit mix and streamlined design,” the planning report submitted to the Gold Coast City Council noted.</p>

<p>Plus Studio designed the tower which "aims to contribute positively to the evolving Southport skyline, with vertical relief elements, sculpted facades, and rooftop crowning features."</p>

<p>“When stepping into the lobby from Norman Street, pedestrians and residents pass through a sculpted podium of lush green foliage in an earthy entry experience,” Plus wrote in its design report, emphasising the landscape-led approach to the podium and ground plane.</p>

<p><img alt="Malua" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="694202c2-be8f-4cde-be26-a494293058a6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.42.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NOIFuolMkoE8vNerov63rnbFRk_TnYUy" /></p>

<p>There is renewed confidence in the development market in Southport. Buyers have jumped at the chance to buy at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/maris-southport-20-queen-street-southport-qld-4215">Maris</a>, the latest local Gold Coast development by MRCB. Over 75 per cent of the 192 apartments have been snapped up prior to launching to the market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The last notable launch in the suburb was in late 2023 when <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eden-garden-residences-20-bauer-street-southport">Eden Garden Residences</a> hit the market. The 54 apartments, on the corner of Bauer Street and Chester Terrace, are under construction and due to complete in mid-2026.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: Southport tower Malua to rise 32 levels in latest Gold Coast approval

<p>Woolworths Group’s development arm, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fabcot">Fabcot</a>, has unveiled its latest mixed-use development.</p>

<p>They are seeking to reshape a prominent site in Gladesville, on the northern edge of the town centre. They've filed a&nbsp;State Significant Development Application for the amalgamated 5,623 sqm block with street frontages to Victoria Road and Eltham Street that will see <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/363-victoria-road-gladesville-nsw-2111">two buildings with 171 apartments</a> sit above an activated retail ground plane.</p>

<p>The tallest tower, at 13 storeys, will face Victoria Road and home 115 dwellings. A smaller nine-sytorey tower, stepping down to Eltham Street, will have the remaining 56 apartments.</p>

<p>The towers will rise above a podium containing a full-line 3,800 sqm Woolworths supermarket and cafe, activating along the Westminster and Eltham Street frontages.</p>

<p><img alt="Fabcot" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="da042a40-288e-41b8-becc-080f235a3717" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.13.26%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=n99ay71Clcy6WLP4Uajw2ph6BA61wboV" /></p>

<p>The residential offering will include 19 one-bedroom, 118 two-bedroom, and 34 three-bedroom apartments. Residents will have access to rooftop communal terraces on both buildings, as well as a podium-level garden, contributing a total of 1,411 sqm of communal open space.</p>

<p>According to the Urban Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/clarke-hopkins-clarke">ClarkeHopkinsClarke</a>, “The massing places height and density along Victoria Road, reinforcing its role as the commercial spine, while stepping down towards neighbouring areas to ensure appropriate scale transitions.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>The design draws inspiration from the local geology and waterways, with curving tower forms and a warm, tactile material palette referencing Hawkesbury sandstone and nearby riverine landscapes.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes basement parking across three to four levels, accommodating 392 car spaces - 190 for retail and 202 for residents.</p>

<p><img alt="Fabcot" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f1a01073-9a13-4ba7-9c14-43c84a751e26" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.13.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KSImA_iSQiIgSRMswm7.5Sg.WRZ0fZjg" /></p>

<p>Fabcot is aiming to deliver a “landmark building with civic presence,” leveraging the prominent corner site to anchor the precinct’s urban renewal.</p>

<p>“The building’s corner location and carefully sculpted form establish it as a landmark for North Gladesville,” the Urban Design Report notes.</p>

<p>ClarkeHopkinsClarke has previously collaborated on other Woolworths mixed-use projects, and here again deploys stepped setbacks, articulation, and extensive landscaping to manage bulk and enhance street-level engagement. A colonnaded brick base provides texture and rhythm to the podium, while upper levels curve softly to maximise views and cross-ventilation.</p>

<p>The development sits within the North Gladesville Precinct, an area earmarked for transformation under Ryde’s local planning strategy. It is well-served by bus connections along Victoria Road and within proximity to community infrastructure, schools, and riverside parkland.</p>

<p>Gladesville is set for a full transformation with developer Third.i also planning a major mixed-use development in the area. They are seeking to redevelop the Gladesville Village Shopping Centre into an&nbsp;integrated precinct with more than 500 apartments, a new supermarket, and significant public domain upgrades.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-third-i-plots-500-unit-redevelopment-of-gladesville-village-shopping-centre">First look: Third.i plots 500-unit redevelopment of Gladesville Village Shopping Centre</a></em></p>


Fabcot reveals mixed-use plans for Gladesville town centre

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/omaya">Omaya</a> has brought to market a boutique collection of completed, two-storey terraces on Telopea Avenue in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/homebush-west-nsw-2140">Homebush West</a>, offering buyers the opportunity to move straight into brand-new homes in a connected inner-west location.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/telopea-avenue-homebush-west-24-36-telopea-avenue-homebush-west-nsw-2140">Telopea Avenue</a> comprises four-bedroom terraces with internal basement parking, designed to balance functionality with contemporary interiors.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150682 project_image_fid=6085]</p>

<p>Each residence is arranged across two levels, with layouts tailored to families seeking more space or downsizers wanting low-maintenance living without compromise. Skylights and large windows maximise natural light throughout the interiors, while private terraces and balconies extend living outdoors.</p>

<p>Inside, hybrid timber flooring flows through living and bedroom spaces, complemented by built-in wardrobes with polyurethane finishes and melamine shelving.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Kitchens feature Bianco Imperial Granite benchtops and splashbacks, paired with Smeg appliances including a five-burner gas cooktop, oven, rangehood, and integrated dishwasher.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bathrooms continue the refined detailing with porcelain tiling, granite accents, gun metal tapware, and integrated LED lighting.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150682 project_image_fid=6072]</p>

<p>Landscaped surrounds create a sense of greenery within the community, while individual home designs ensure each terrace retains its own character.</p>

<p>Positioned within a quiet residential pocket, the project sits only minutes from the activity centres of Strathfield, North Strathfield, Homebush, and Lidcombe, as well as the broader lifestyle and employment precinct of Sydney Olympic Park.</p>

<p>Residents also benefit from the project’s proximity to transport and amenity. Homebush and Flemington stations provide direct rail access to the Sydney CBD, with major road connections including Parramatta Road and the M4 close by.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150682 project_image_fid=6064]</p>

<p>Local shops, Sydney Markets, and Strathfield Plaza cater to daily needs, while the area is well-serviced by schools, childcare centres, and universities.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Nearby Sydney Olympic Park and Bicentennial Park add further lifestyle appeal, offering walking trails, sports facilities, and year-round cultural events.</p>

<p>The terraces are delivered by Omaya, a family-run Sydney developer and builder with more than 35 years of experience and over 1,000 dwellings in its pipeline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150682]</p>


Omaya delivers complete and move-in ready terraces on Telopea Avenue, Homebush West

<p>Melbourne-based developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/las-group">LAS Group</a> has this month received planning approval for two adjoining sites, 101 Clarendon Street and 38 Clarke Street in Southbank, that will add around $700 million to the developer’s pipeline on completion.</p>

<p>The two sites were purchased from Crown in 2023 and occupy the same city block as the iconic Casino complex, acquired in an on-market transaction, consisting of multiple titles that were being used as warehouses and low-rise office space.</p>

<p>The resulting permits will see the delivery of two towers consisting of 52 and 25 levels, both to be designed by Fender Katsalidis.</p>

<p>LAS Group’s successful planning approvals are among only a select few new development sites in Southbank to receive a permit in the last three years, as appropriate sites become even more scarce in the popular city-side location.</p>

<p>The projects will enjoy immediate walking access to Crown Casino, South Wharf, the Aquarium, Southbank and the wider Yarra River walk precinct that features a plethora of restaurants, bars and other hospitality and entertainment offerings.</p>

<p>The Fender Katsalidis-designed towers will feature intricate brick masonry and arched windows at street level that will add character to the Southbank streetscape, with sleek towers rising above each podium.</p>

<p>The larger of the two towers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/101-clarendon-street-southbank-vic-3006">101 Clarendon Street</a>, will have 509 apartments across a 52-level building that wuill also include a resident&nbsp;lounge, private dining room, podcast room, golf simulator, co-working spaces, pet care facilities, and an outdoor terrace.</p>

<p>That is expected to complete in 2029.</p>

<p><img alt="Clarendon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9d8595a7-d225-4532-86a9-d3c5ca7407d4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-05%20at%208.28.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=quwbfnhk5Vf6yR1Qj0GQtt0EjeIsKMci" /><br />
<em>The podium at 101 Clarendon Street. Image supplied</em></p>

<p>The smaller tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/36-42-clarke-street-southbank-vic-3006">38 Clarke Street</a> will be around half the size at 25 levels and home 188 apartments, a pool, gym, cold plunge, and sauna. That is expected to complete in 2028.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>LAS Group has a long history of developing key sites across Australia, including The Fawkner on St Kilda Road and Guild Apartments in Southbank, as well as holding significant interests in retail, mixed-use and storage facilities across Australia.</p>

<p><img alt="38 Clarke" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d871b034-d2a4-490f-b9eb-b9d4b99a04c5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-05%20at%208.28.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=J3fWfemsLPQzXekl_h0QlsXoWFnRbfRF" /><br />
<em>38 Clarke Street, Southbank. Image supplied</em></p>

<p>LAS Group director and founder Les Smith said the planning approvals had come at a time when confidence was returning to the market and the need to deliver quality apartment stock in Melbourne’s inner suburbs was becoming critical to help ease the housing and affordability crisis.</p>

<p>“These planning approvals are the outcome of a collaborative process with multiple stakeholders and we are grateful for the involvement and support of Melbourne Water, the Department of Transport and Planning, Melbourne City Council and Property Council of Australia along the way," Smith said.</p>

<p>“We have a huge affinity for Melbourne believe the macro and micro economic factors that underpin long-term growth mean it is currently undervalued compared to other capital cities around Australia.</p>

<p>“Confidence is starting to return given the recent interest rate drops and the buoyancy in the economic climate, so we believe the time is right to bring these two new projects to market in the coming months."</p>

<p>LAS Group General Manager, Mia Smith said the design intent was to bring a sense of place to Southbank from the ground level and contribute positively to the thriving entertainment precinct, while delivering good quality, affordable stock to the market.</p>

<p>“These projects will deliver product that is affordable and accessible, while delivering a beautiful building with luxury appointments, in a wonderful location that’s next door to Crown Casino and the Southbank entertainment precinct, and on the doorstep to the CBD," Smith said.</p>

<p>“We are incredibly pleased with the designs that Fender Katsalidis have proposed and we are excited to make a positive impact to the urban design of this important pocket of Southbank with these exceptional design outcomes.”</p>


LAS Group to build 700 apartments across two towers on Crown Casino’s former Southbank sites

Recession

<p>The extended lockdown across greater Sydney could be the catalyst for another Australian recession, according to experts surveyed in this month&rsquo;s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey.&nbsp;</p>

<p>All 40 experts and economists that weigh&nbsp;in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy, expect&nbsp;a rate hold for this month.</p>

<p>With greater Sydney set to be in lockdown until at least the end of August, the majority of experts who weighed in* (63%, 19/30) believe that the lockdowns could see Australia enter another recession.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Nearly 2 in 5 (38%, 8/21) of economists think that it could take as little as another two months in lockdown for the recession to hit.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said all eyes will be on the length of Sydney&rsquo;s lockdown.</p>

<p>Close to half of respondents who responded (43%, 12) think that Australia&rsquo;s response to the pandemic has hurt its international reputation.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7363 project_image_fid=41840]</p>

<p><strong>Uncertainty returns for employment and wage growth&nbsp;</strong></p>

<p>While positivity towards both wage growth and employment surged in July, August saw both of these economic indicators dip significantly.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Cooke said it was no surprise that the latest Covid developments had driven sentiment into the ground.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&ldquo;Last month, we saw positivity towards wage growth spike to its highest point since our survey began. While this has seen a sharp decrease, it&rsquo;s employment that&rsquo;s seen the biggest dip, dropping from 71% in July to 29% in August.&quot;</p>

<p>&ldquo;Positive economic sentiment overall has dropped to 14% in August, down from 28% last month,&rdquo; Cooke added.&nbsp;</p>


All 40 experts and economists surveyed expect a rate hold for this month.

jordan_55689

Experts warn extended Sydney lockdown could lead to another recession: Finder

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>More carnage overnight with US stocks down another -10 per cent again in early trade to smash into the circuit breakers, with the Dow Jones shedding -36 per cent in less than a month, before a late rally.</p>
<div id="post-body-2582528096951691734" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>The oil price (WTI) was down at nearly $20 at one stage, before a bouncing to $22, nestling in at the lowest level since the early 2000s...so there are some value plays emerging there.</p>
<p>But overall, cash is king at the moment while stock market valuations continue to mean revert.</p>
<p>This risks sounding like a broken record, but it bears repeating that overall US stocks are still far too expensive given the outlook, and could yet fall another -30 per cent even from here (if things got really bad they could go much lower).</p>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lq18M1eZhts/XnKhiiXFqbI/AAAAAAAA0vY/zUHAiE2ggegAqwyOYEAT9qR84VyY8a3tQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CAPE.jpg" width="640" height="308" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="1090"></div>
<span id="goog_1039971940"></span><br><div><em>Source: Shiller PE</em></div>
<br>Don't forget that previously healthy earnings are about to be decimated, with JPM forecasting US GDP to shrink by 4 per cent in Q1 and 14 per cent in Q2.<br><br>I can't watch another fund manager video demanding that you stay fully invested with them.<br><br>It's time to step away from the noise and remember the <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2020/03/16/applying-the-8-timeless-principles-in-a-bear-market/" target="_blank">8 timeless principles</a>!<br><br>The <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2020/01/04/maximising-your-long-term-wealth-with-the-kelly-criterion/" target="_blank">Kelly criterion</a> demands that you keep cash aside and live to fight another day - especially when markets are as overvalued as they have been - as better opportunities will always come around in the future.<br><br>Remember Rule #1: don't lose money.<br><br>The Aussie market stock index may catch a bid after a European stimulus announcement this morning.<br><br>This is Lagarde's own 'whatever it takes' moment, but the ECB promising no limits to its commitment to the Euro, and another massive asset purchase programme.<br><br>Still on the balance of probabilities the Aussie index increasingly looks likely to hit late 2009 levels this week in the 4,800s range this month.<br><br>This is a swift and brutal lesson in the importance of <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2019/12/29/the-magic-of-rebalancing/" target="_blank">rebalancing</a> and keeping cash aside for future opportunities arising, with a decade of price gains erased in about 20 trades.<br><br>Buy and hold at all times has been mistaken at times as a panacea or even a religion, but it's not; you need and do whatever it takes to keep yourself around to capitalise on the opportunities.<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong>'Whatever it takes' moment</strong>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: line-through;">A historic</span> <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">An historic</span> A momentous day ahead for Australian financial markets.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank is set to make a landmark announcement at 2.30pm Sydney time, with Governor Lowe lined up to speak thereafter at 4pm.</p>
<p>Lowe will likely discuss an emergency cut in the official cash rate to 0.25 per cent, central bank purchases of government bonds, the ongoing conducting of repo operations, and other measures to ensure that credit continues to flow to households and businesses. </p>
<p>Global cases of the coronavirus continue to increase at this stage, suggesting that a serious disruption to the global economy lies squarely ahead, although <em>known</em> cases in Australia remain relatively low at this stage. </p>
<p> </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PpQcwNO9df0/XnKlqpCKgHI/AAAAAAAA0vg/zHXvgYR03PYK6i4HO-HDdOhrRudmyWKYACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="503" data-original-width="828"></p>
<p>Daily new cases hit fresh highs yesterday (the February 12 spike was a data collation or measurement issue).</p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QesSeFEsy4A/XnKs4AK_b6I/AAAAAAAA0vo/i5BTQupD2EEaQuoc-z-AD4xeoeGEq6pVACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Cases.jpg" width="640" height="342" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="897"></div>
<br>The biggest surge in cases lately has been in Italy, with 35,713 cases and 2,978 deaths recorded to date.<br><br><strong>Recession ahead</strong><br><br>Major bank economists see the Aussie unemployment rate rising to 7 to 8 per cent (not that you can really forecast in the present environment), while the government's initial stimulus package probably isn't enough to save the economy from printing negative growth for both the first and the second quarter of the year.  
<p>This would lock in Australia's first recession in three decades. </p>
<p>Recent years been characterised by the Reserve Bank 'leaning against' asset prices and continually undershooting the inflation target, with persistently slow growth in wages and living standards.</p>
<p>Nobody could've predicted the great trifecta of drought, bushfires, and a global pandemic, of course, but the economy was already running well below potential before these shocks. </p>
<p>At this stage all we have is mostly anecdotes about the likely state of the economy, but so many of them reflect sharp drops in revenue, income, commissions, and profits, that this is no time for half measures.</p>
<p>Markets will be looking for a 'whatever it takes' pledge and from Lowe, and the use of unlimited monetary ammunition until things stabilise.<br><br>Anything less than that will be brushed aside in the savage market conditions.<br><br>From the government's perspective infrastructure programs and tax cuts aren't going to cut it.<br><br>What's needed is putting cash into the hands of households and small businesses today...to prevent the R from becoming a D.<br><br>They'll write books about all this next year; it's been a momentous month. </p>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Infrastructure programs and tax cuts won't be enough: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER </p>
<div>GDP growth was estimated at a seasonally adjusted -0.3 per cent for Q1, leading to the inevitably mind-numbing 'recession we had to have' headlines.<br><br>Over the year GDP growth slowed to +1.4 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Q1 could yet be revised up, of course - especially the very significant negative drag from inventories - and therefore the technical definition of a recession may yet be avoided. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, given that GDP growth in Q2 will clearly be severely negative this is largely semantics.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pt_Gww_Reuc/XtgnFuMgFeI/AAAAAAAA2HQ/vLAGeFkHn3M9QOwI61ZNNpoOjf5yT5T5ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1381"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>Nominal GDP growth over the year is floundering again.<br><br></p>
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<div>Real net national disposable income, as a proxy for living standards, has been fairly flat over the past six months. </div>
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<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>And the terms of trade have held up well to date, well above the long-run average.<br><br></p>
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<div>Meanwhile, the interest payable on dwellings continues to fall, now down to the lowest level since 2009 despite the dramatic increase in the dwelling stock over that time.</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Stimulus mixed</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>With the Reserve Bank fading quietly into the background, the government must now do the heavy lifting with its fiscal stimulus.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Aussie dollar has accordingly soared back towards US 70 cents, in turn slowing the adjustment process. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The terms of the $688 million renovation stimulus missed the mark completely, leaving such a skinny cohort of prospective qualifying applicants that the government needn't have bothered with it. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Essentially you must own a house and undertake an expensive renovation within the next few months, but without having a high income (while a whole heap of renovation options are excluded): </div>
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<div>
<br>Perhaps some retirees might qualify for a grant, and maybe a few young homeowners with wealthy parents.<br><br>
</div>
<div>The terms of the HomeBuilder grant scheme for <em>new</em> homes are far better targeted, and will undoubtedly be a net positive for the industry. </div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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GDP headed down, recession all but locked in: Pete Wargent

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<div>The Australian National Accounts recorded that real GDP growth came in at a seasonally adjusted -0.5 percent for the third quarter and +1.8 percent for the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oops.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was the first negative quarterly result for GDP since the Queensland flood-affected quarter of March 2011, and only the fourth such result since Australia's last recession in 1991. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With a negative contribution of -0.2ppts net exports were a drag on growth this time around, and there was a big drop in public capital expenditure (for a contribution of -0.5ppts) after a surge of government investment last quarter, summarily in helicopters, healthcare, and hepatitis drugs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Household consumption contributed 0.3ppts to growth this quarter, but there wasn't much joy elsewhere. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>With downward revisions to previous quarters, this takes annual GDP growth all the way down to +1.8 percent. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Nominal GDP fared somewhat better, growing by +0.5 percent in the quarter, and by +3 percent over the year.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Income boost</span></strong></p>
<div>It's often been pointed out that in a country such as Australia with its volatile bulk commodity prices, real GDP isn't always an ideal measure of how things are tracking. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this quarter, for example, there was a large +4.4 percent jump in the terms of trade, meaning that the index is now up by +1.4 percent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that the terms of trade index has been falling since Q3 2011, this is hugely welcome news!</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Behind the scenes, of course, commodity export volumes have been ramping up over time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus while real GDP contracted, real gross national income, real gross disposable income and real net national disposable income all rose to record highs in the September quarter, and we can expect to see further gains in Q4. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> </p>
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<div>In real terms, gross national income increased by +0.9 percent over the quarter and +3.2 percent over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Essentially, then, this this quarter has been the mirror image of the dynamics we've seen in previous quarters, shifting to strong income growth and weaker GDP growth.</div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Two-speed</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Research by SGS Economics and Planning has shown that Sydney and Melbourne have beendominating economic growth, while many regional economies are presently running slower as they adjust to life post-resources boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>State final demand was very weak in Western Australia at -3.8 percent as capex continues to work through its decline. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>At the industry level, construction was the biggest loser, contracting by -3.6 percent, and swiping some -0.3ppts from GDP growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Compensation of employees grew by +1.3 percent over the quarter and a positive +3.1 percent over the year, while the household savings ratio ticked down to 6.3 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll look at the impact on household incomes and expenditure in a separate post. </div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></p>
<p>After 100 consecutive quarters without a recession, the economy posted a negative GDP result for the third quarter, but real national income measures surged to a record high.   </p>
<div>Whether or not we experience a technical recession next quarter is open for debate, but it looks to be unlikely based on the recent growth in retail spend. </div>
<div>
<br>Overall, strong public investment figures in the first half of the year masked a softening underlying trend in growth in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>An annual GDP growth figure of +1.8 percent feels much more in line with the metrics we've seen elsewhere, including low employment and wages growth, soft inflation, and a budget in deficit. </div>
<div>
<br>If hours worked are said to be the best measure of the health of the economy, then the conclusion is clear: the economy stuttered in the first half of 2016, although there was at least a moderate improvement of +0.5 percent in Q3. </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>In the face of an obviously weaker result, a key question for the government now is whether it uses low yields to borrow and invest in infrastructure, as the Reserve Bank doesn't sound particularly keen on cutting the cash rate too much further!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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A recession looks unlikely: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Mike Tyson is quoted as saying, "everyone has a game-plan until you get punched in the face”.</span></p>
<p><span>So, how do we take this true to life and memorable analogy and personalize it to our business? I spilled my coffee due to convulsive laughter, when I first heard this.</span></p>
<p><span>Like many sides of our personal makeup we, as human beings, personalize or internalize and emotionally invest in what we create and believe in.</span></p>
<p><span>In this particular post, I will look at how we can recession proof “protect” our brand as we move into 2016 - a year with many unknowns when it comes to the survival of real estate agents and their offices, independent or mainstream.</span></p>
<p><span>I'm talking about building a defensive wall that won’t allow adversaries an inch of space but don’t forget, your inner voice can also work against you.</span></p>
<p><span> Yes, you too can punch yourself in the nose and sabotage your business.</span></p>
<p><span>I’m no expert, to say the least; so I called on the experience and expertise of my good friend and brand mentor, Anthony Carroll, from Yellowsneakers to help explore the idea of recession proofing my brand.</span></p>
<p><span>Anthony best explains the relevance and relationship between recession proofing our business and branding with a simple question:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span>How relevant is your brand when it comes to your purpose and your customers needs? All the elements of your brand should radiate out from your “purpose”.</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span>Unravelling purpose is not just about having an idea, it is about solving a problem and engaging an audience.</span></p>
<p><span>A purpose is a solution to a problem that your target audience can't solve on their own. Your solution should therefore fit the problem but also be delivered in a way that is unique and different to what your competitors offer.</span></p>
<p><span>Staying true to your purpose is KEY to surviving and recession proofing your business.</span></p>
<p><span>The basic principles, on how we build a strong defensive wall, is sometimes forgotten. Most brands with no essence or belief, in other words purpose, will fail. Fail to be noticed and fail to engage the audience it needs to survive.</span></p>
<p><span> A strong brand on the other hand, can weather many storms:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Product failure</span></li>
<li><span>PR fallouts</span></li>
<li><span>Corporate scandal</span></li>
<li><span>Dips in market share</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span>Therefore, the strength of your brand can be gaged by your commitment to its purpose. The purpose that underlines your daily and constant decision making and reason to stay motivated and focused.</span></p>
<p><span>A good example of a brand weathering a PR fallout is the LiveStrong brand started by Lance Armstrong.</span></p>
<p><span>Because of its strong underlying purpose: Lifestyle choices, healthier eating and so on, the brand continues flourish despite the Tour-de-France doping scandal that Lance Armstrong was at the centre of.</span></p>
<p><span>Lance had to step down from the organization he founded and distance himself completely. However, as a result the brand remains relevant in the eyes of its audience.</span></p>
<p><span>People will forgive human frailty and it’s been shown that the more human or personable the brand is, the more supportive people become of the brand.</span></p>
<p><span>More recently, we can look at the VW emissions scandal. Sales for VW and Audi have actually increased. While it might be too early for sales to be affect, yet it will be interesting to see how VW survives this scandal.</span></p>
<p><span>So what happens when we have a kick-ass brand? More people engage with the brand as soon as they understand its core purpose.</span></p>
<p><span>Reflecting on the industry I’m presently engaged in and as I re-read this post, I find myself asking the following questions:</span></p>
<ol>
<li><span>Will the main real estate brands remain true to the nature, the purpose of their founders? or Will they continue to lose the respect of both employees and clients?</span></li>
<li><span>Will the New Year 2016, usher in new real estate brands created by disillusioned employees of some of the more established brands?</span></li>
</ol>
<p><span>No matter what industry you are in and particularly if you are about to launch with a new brand; I do hope these thoughts have been of help.</span></p>
<p><span>I leave you with this thought: never underestimate small beginnings, remain true to your purpose and your brand will make the impact you aimed for.</span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><em><span>EDWIN ALMEIDA</span> is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"><br></a></em></p>
<p><em>He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.</em></p>
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Recession proof your real estate business: Edwin Almeida

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<p class="Body">The latest doomsday forecasts for Australian real estate call to mind the shameful history of overseas spruikers and local economists in getting it spectacularly wrong on house prices.</p>
<p class="Body">There’s nothing new in individuals with ulterior motives (usually seeking publicity for a seminar tour, new business venture or a book launch) getting acres of free mileage by predicting our markets will collapse. The <em>60 Minutes</em> debacle is merely the latest.</p>
<p class="Body">I note that the nation’s worst forecaster of property trends, academic Steve Keen, has publicly admitted recently that he got it “hopelessly wrong” with his price forecasts. It’s about time - Keen famously predicted in 2008 that Australian house prices would fall 40% in 2009. Prices rose that year and in the years since Keen has rehashed his predictions in various guises with different time frames but with the same result – he’s been wrong every time. Now he has written a column for <em>Business Spectator</em> which says: “I was hopelessly wrong on house prices. Ask me how.”</p>
<p class="Body">But Keen has lots of company at the bottom when it comes to faulty forecasting, sometimes perhaps for dodgy reasons.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">One of the worst examples was US doomsday specialist Harry S Dent who came to Australian in 2011 for a seminar tour and sought (and received) publicity by predicting our home values would fall 40% in 2012. He advised Sydney owners to “sell their excess real estate”. We all know how well that forecast worked out.</p>
<p class="Body">But Dent was back in Australia two years later for another lucrative seminar tour and again went to the media for some free mileage. He said house prices would crash “some time in 2014”, with values falling at least 27% in Sydney and Melbourne. The market made a fool of him again.</p>
<p class="Body">Given the state of Australia media, I have no doubt that if Dent shows up again next year, he will make the same style of prediction and will be handed another round of massive national publicity.</p>
<p class="Body">Many others have come to our shores and used the Armageddon formula of generating publicity for their venture.</p>
<p class="Body">Little-known US spruiker Jorgan Wirsz suddenly became well-known in 2012 by forecasting a “bloodbath” in Australian real estate, with home values tipped to fall 60% in 2013. He also said land values would drop 90%.</p>
<p class="Body">Think for a moment what that means. He was suggesting that residential land in Australia would be almost worthless. Nothing remotely like has ever occurred in the history of the world, not even in the worst basket-case economy post-GFC. But Australian media chose to give these ridiculous claims credibility. And of course they were subsequently shown to be nonsense.</p>
<p class="Body">There have been many others, including another US spruiker called Jeremy Grantham who claimed in 2010 that the “Australian housing bubble” would burst that year.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">There also have been plenty of local commentators, mostly economists who don’t understand the dynamics of Australian real estate, who have forecast significant declines.</p>
<p class="Body">Morgan Stanley’s Gerard Minack said in August 2010 that property was 40% over-valued and the bubble was about to burst.</p>
<p class="Body">AMP’s Shane Oliver, who regularly calls it wrong on real estate prices, claimed in 2005 that homes were grossly over-valued and there would be no growth anywhere in Australia for the next decade. Those 10 years have come and gone, and I have to ask: How did that one work out for you, Shane?</p>
<p class="Body">Oliver was in the media again in June 2012 claiming that house prices were “over-valued’ and “chronically weak” and were heading for “a sharp fall”. Ooops, again.</p>
<p class="Body">Commonwealth Bank chief Ralph Norris said in November 2011 that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe had put Australian house prices at risk.</p>
<p class="Body">Prosper Australia claimed in August 2011 that Melbourne was about to experience “a US-style property crash with price falls of 30%”. (Those who suggest Australia must decline because it happened in the US appear to be unaware that US markets dropped for clear reasons, and those circumstances don’t exist in Australia.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Michael Power of Investec declared in September 2012 that Australian house prices would fall by up to 20% by the end of 2014.</p>
<p class="Body">The <em>Herald Sun</em> ran the headline “Prices could fall as higher interest rates bite” based on comments by CommSec’s Craig James. (This notion that rising interest rates means a market crash is quite prevalent, but there is historical evidence to support the idea.)</p>
<p class="Body">Citibank economist Josh Williamson said in June 2013 that house prices would peak in March 2014 and fall thereafter. Propell National Valuers put out a media release in June 2014 declaring the end of the Sydney boom and, around the same time, Morgan Stanley analyst Malcolm Wood also called the end for Sydney, saying:” If you’re an investor, you’ve missed the boat.”<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Fringe dweller Leigh van Onselen, who has a lifetime of raging against real estate, stated in February 2012 that the “slow melt” in Australian house prices would continue.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Another guerilla-style opponent of all things real estate, Kris Sayce, shouted in March 2011 that “the value of your home could fall 61% the minute interest rates start rising”.</p>
<p class="Body">The list goes on. And there’s a clear pattern. Since the start of the 21<sup>st</sup> Century, claims of markets collapsing, bubbles bursting and prices disintegrating have been an almost weekly occurrence. Journalists never seem to tire of doomsday stories.</p>
<p class="Body">They’ve all been wrong. And they’ve been wrong for clear reasons. Australia is not in recession, it does not have high unemployment, we don’t have a vast oversupply of dwellings nationwide and our banks don’t lend recklessly. We would need all of those circumstances to fall into alignment, as they did in the US around the time of the GFC, before our property markets would be in danger.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Property Observer</em> would welcome a response from any of those named to give the context on their call.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Company at the bottom for faulty market forecasters: Terry Ryder

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div id="post-body-2344560504014387325" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Just to add to all the other woeful data released today, the preliminary index of commodity prices was down by -3.5 per cent in November, following on from a substantially (downwardly) revised -6.6 per cent decline in October. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZpHxPyxhBS8/XeUWD1ePD_I/AAAAAAAAzJ8/cUV_89zPAP8WrA0ZWMBaCF4kiouWAPzKQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Commodity.gif"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZpHxPyxhBS8/XeUWD1ePD_I/AAAAAAAAzJ8/cUV_89zPAP8WrA0ZWMBaCF4kiouWAPzKQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Commodity.gif" width="640" height="498" data-original-height="465" data-original-width="597"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Productivity figures released today were the worst in at least 25 years, and you can follow much of the other underwhelming news <a href="https://jamesfostermacro.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">here</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and the Board will need to work its way through a barrage of dire figures, including the ongoing nosedive in dwelling construction.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mxFbqv6uopM/XeUV7w27ZDI/AAAAAAAAzJ4/-6H8KzN91H8V7WueVcKddgFbefJyG2nQACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/RW.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mxFbqv6uopM/XeUV7w27ZDI/AAAAAAAAzJ4/-6H8KzN91H8V7WueVcKddgFbefJyG2nQACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RW.jpg" width="572" height="640" data-original-height="924" data-original-width="828"></a></div>
<br><div>Futures markets are unsurprisingly pricing further easing, with the economy, inflation, and wages growth all so mired in the doldrums.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The question the Board will need to consider is: what exactly would waiting until February achieve?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em><span> </span>
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Is a recession brewing? Pete Wargent

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<p><span>As the Sydney real estate markets start drawing the curtains on what has been a highly entertaining 2015 year it’s interesting to note some are framing 2016 as the recession year. </span></p>
<p><span>However before we start nailing that coffin we need to look at what possibly may cause a recession and then look for what may avert a recession. Naturally there are many that opt for the let’s wait and see option although I’m of the opinion that we won’t see a technical recession.</span></p>
<p><span>Yes in some areas property prices are falling and in many other areas property prices are still performing well. Just last week we set (nearly doubled) the all-time record price for a <span>Cammeray waterfront</span>.  This week a developer released Chatswood Place, a $300 million boutique style development, and in just three hours set a new suburb record as well as securing $160 million in off the plan sales. This is the very same investment market which many were believing was well and truly finished.</span></p>
<p><span>Last week the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that business investment spending in the September quarter had fallen 9.2 %. This quarterly result was the worst in the 28 year history of the survey of business investment. The ABS also released the GDP growth which identified growth of 0.9 % thanks to the highest exports in 15 years, an increase in consumer spending and of course the much publicised housing boom more particularly in apartment construction.</span></p>
<p><span>We also need to note that Treasury has cut the nation’s potential economic growth rate to 2.75 % down from 3.25 %. This follows three consecutive years of below – trend economic growth where the elephant in the room is the decline in mining.</span></p>
<p><span>Now for that beaming light at the end of this tunnel of misery – enter the very cashed – up NSW government. Unlike the vast majority of state and territory governments NSW has an overflow of coin and it’s all going into the biggest infrastructure spend in the state’s history. Over the next four years the NSW government has allocated a staggering $70 billion infrastructure spend which is unprecedented. This in itself will singularly underpin the Sydney housing market given nothing stimulates the markets and consumer confidence like a massive infrastructure spend.</span></p>
<p><span>The breakdown is $38 billion to be spent on new transport projects which will also include the second harbour tunnel, North West rail link, South East Light rail, Sydney CBD and WestConnex. The Transgrid lease which brought in a record $10,258 billion is still to be allocated although it has been confirmed that these monies will also be directed into new infrastructure projects.</span></p>
<p><span>Following the federal government crackdown on illegal foreign real estate acquisitions in Australia the Significant and Premium Investor Visas have been running at full – speed. It will be very interesting to see the next set of figures and whether there has been a significant spike in applications since the crackdown. The low Australian dollar is also enticing many offshore purchasers and expats and this is now a very strong emerging market within the Sydney real estate markets.</span></p>
<p><span>So when one takes the time to actually look at what is going on I find myself (as do many others) not too worried about this so called recession. The last recession was 25 years ago and they aren’t very nice but when you have a state government pouring $70 billion into the NSW economy it would appear that NSW has more Zoom than Gloom. </span></p>
<p><span>To further highlight this the NSW government just appointed Lucy Turnbull (the PM’s wife) as chair of the NSW government’s newly created Greater Sydney Commission. The sole purpose of the Greater Sydney Commission is to stop the infighting at local councils and to speed up developments across the city although I still see councils incompetency as an on – going hurdle.  I’m reliably informed that the premier will hand his greater Sydney Commission special powers and the councils will not like what’s in-store.</span></p>
<p><span>Of course not everybody will be convinced but then again, that all adds to the theatre of debate. When the 2016 property markets kick off I’m of the view that the areas within a 15 kilometre radius of the CBD will do very well. But expect more than a few to tell a different tale.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>MOSMAN – 2088</strong></span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 103</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market last week – 65</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this week – 55</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 66</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 60</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 51</span></p>
<p><span><strong>CREMORNE – 2090</strong></span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 13</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market last week – 15</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this week – 11</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 25</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 18</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 17</span></p>
<p><span><strong>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</strong></span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market last week – 8</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this week – 8</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 33</span></p>
<p><span>*Number of apartments on the market this week – 30</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Some framing 2016 as the recession year: Robert Simeon

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<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Australia is officially out of a recession.</span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span> </span></div>
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<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) advised that the nation's Gross Domestic Product – or GDP – rose 3.3 per cent in the September quarter.</span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span> </span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>CommSec's Craig James called it a "Christmas miracle."</span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa">
<p>It was the strongest quarterly growth since the March quarter 1976. </p>
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<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>However t<span>hroughout 2020 Australia's GDP has fallen 3.8 per cent.</span></span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span><span> </span></span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa">
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<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters in negative growth.</span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span> </span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa">
<div class="block-content">
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The three months to June saw the nation's GDP shrink by seven per cent, the biggest drop since records began in 1959.</span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span> </span></div>
</div>
<div class="block-content">
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The previous quarter to March saw Australia's GDP fall by 0.3 per cent.</span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span> </span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span><span>The market had been predicting that the economy would grow 2.5 per cent in the September quarter. Westpac had forecast three per cent growth.</span></span></div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> </div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa">"The key dynamic of the covid recession and the re-opening of the economy relates to the restrictions on the movement of people and on travel, with the closure of the borders," Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan said.</div>
<div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa">
<p>"Consumer spending plunged by 12.5% in Q2 reflecting the reduced opportunities for people to spend.</p>
<p>"As restrictions were eased, consumers returned to the shops in greater numbers and consumer spending rebounded by 7.9% in Q3 (providing the upside surprise to our forecast).</p>
<p>"Another key feature of this recession has been the massive income transfer from the government to households and businesses – on an unprecedented scale."</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
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Australia is officially out of recession after 3.3 per cent rise in GDP in the September quarter

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<p class="legacy"><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">EXPERT OBSERVER</span></strong></p>
<p class="legacy"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">It became official on Wednesday. The Australian economy is in recession for the first time in nearly three decades.</span></p>
<p>And the drop in economic activity is unprecedented. GDP fell 7% in the June quarter. The previous biggest post-war fall in Australia was 2% in June 1974.</p>
<p>But Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted that in March he was told the June quarter contraction might be 20%. In Britain it was.</p>
<p>Bookkeeping aside, the question that matters is how to fight this recession.</p>
<p>Answering it requires an understanding that it is a different type of recession to those we’ve seen before.</p>
<p>As I pointed out <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-covid-19-recession-is-different-and-we-need-more-stimulus-to-deal-with-it-141037" target="_blank">earlier this year</a> the recessions some of us grew up with in the early 1980s and 1990s were “business cycle” recessions.</p>
<p>They happened because the economy overtook its inbuilt speed limit and pushed up inflation. To curb it, central banks pushed up interest rates, pushed them up too far and choked off investment and spending, sending economic activity backwards.</p>
<h2>A recession like no other</h2>
<p>In 2020 we face a different sort of shock.</p>
<p>COVID-19 has hammered economic activity, even more so in countries such as the United States where it has run out of control.</p>
<p>Many of the opportunities we used to have to spend money (such as airlines, theatre tickets and cafe meals) simply haven’t been there.</p>
<p>They’ll come back when things return to closer to normal, perhaps though the wide deployment of a vaccine.</p>
<p>But we might not spend as we used to.</p>
<p>Some people, out of work or on shorter hours won’t have the capacity to spend. Others will want to rebuild their savings.</p>
<p>And others who have been saving big might decide to keep doing it.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Household saving ratio</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355997/original/file-20200902-22-yq9rjf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355997/original/file-20200902-22-yq9rjf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> </p>
<p><em><span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS Australian National Accounts</span></span></em></p>
<p>Australia’s household saving ratio surged to 19.7% in the June quarter.</p>
<p>It’s a peak not reached since 1974 at a time when there was much less of an age pension and superannuation, no Medicare and surging unemployment. In other words, its at a height not reached since people really needed to save.</p>
<p>The Bureau of Statistics says that if household income from all sources including early access to super was counted, the ratio is even higher. Its estimate of what it calls the “household experience savings ratio” is 24.8%.</p>
<p>That means households saved an extraordinary one in every four dollars that came through their doors in the June quarter, up from mere percentage points a few quarters earlier.</p>
<p>Much of it would have been what economists call <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/132/3/1427/3071924?casa_token=NaR4tX3aSioAAAAA:5a0tN7y4nXtjvyxhO1tit2wcRHuU-NmyYeUJD2Md_gw6wnoLrLkYAwfNWxBE4XkYCfTVh4NeLIfL4rQ" target="_blank">precautionary saving</a>, understandable given how much of the future is uncertain.</p>
<h2>There’s such a thing as too much saving</h2>
<p>But what if this extraordinarily high saving rate lasts beyond the point it is understandable, as it did in Japan.</p>
<p>As with Japan in the 1990s when saving soared, real interest rates are negative. We are so <a href="https://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/japtrap" target="_blank">keen to save</a> we don’t need a financial return.</p>
<p>There were signs of it worldwide, well before the pandemic. President’s Clinton’s Treasury Secretary Larry Summers referred to it as <a href="http://larrysummers.com/2016/02/17/the-age-of-secular-stagnation/" target="_blank">secular stagnation</a>, a term first coined in the 1930s.</p>
<p>Saving more than we are prepared to invest shrinks economic activity. It creates unemployment which itself creates uncertainly, prodding people to save still more than they invest.</p>
<p>It’s one of the reasons worldwide economic growth is low, interest rates are low, and inflation is low.</p>
<p>During the pandemic the government is spending more than A$100 billion on measures such as JobKeeper and JobSeeker.</p>
<h2>If we won’t spend, out government will have to</h2>
<p>Post pandemic it might have to keep spending big on physical and social infrastructure – things such as major projects and better aged care and health care.</p>
<p>If we won’t spend big again, it’ll have to. It’ll need to get the economy’s long term growth rate back up to 2%, or even the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/speech/the-macroeconomic-context" target="_blank">near 3%</a> the Treasury thinks it is capable of.</p>
<p>It’ll require a lot. </p>
<p>Australia used to have one of the lowest company tax rates in the developed world, now we have one of the highest. We tax labour income too much and consumption too little. And we have a hopelessly out of date and absurdly complex industrial relations system.</p>
<p>Each of those things are a handbrake on economic growth.</p>
<p>This is an unusual recession and an unusually deep one.</p>
<p>Digging our way out will require us to at first contain and defeat the virus, and then spend like Keynes and <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/we-can-spend-like-keynes-and-cut-taxes-like-friedman-20200728-p55g2s" target="_blank">cut taxes like Friedman</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145484/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-how-do-you-fight-a-recession-without-precedent-145484" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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