Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Recession

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Australian economy contracted by 7% in the June quarter, broadly in line with expectations (both Westpac and market median at -6%).
This is by far the largest quarterly contraction in the Australian economy on record (previous record was -2.0% in June 1974).
However by international comparisons the contraction is relatively mild with UK (-20.3%); Europe (-12.1%); US (-9.1%); and Japan (-7.8%) all exceeding Australia’s contraction.
Of course these extraordinary numbers reflect the impact on activity from governments’ actions to contain the health damage to citizens from the Coronavirus.
As with other countries the primary impact of the containment policies was to restrict consumer spending. For Australia consumer spending represents 56% of GDP yet the 12% contraction in consumer spending explained 98% of the overall contraction in GDP. Components of consumption which were most adversely affected were: transport services (fell 86%); accommodation services (-77%); catering services (-56%); recreational and cultural services (-52%) and health (20%).
Household gross disposable income rose by 2.2%, largely reflecting the boost to social assistance benefits.
Hours worked fell by 9.8% although wage incomes declined by only 2.5%. That “gap” is explained by the JobKeeper subsidy payments which were used to maintain the wages of workers who experienced a significant reduction in hours worked.
With the lift in household incomes and the collapse in spending the household savings rate soared to 19.8% from 6% in the March quarter.
The sharper fall in hours worked relative to output points to the disproportionate job losses in the labour intensive service sectors of the economy.
The dominance of consumer spending in this result is generally highlighted by other components of expenditure, which were weak, reflecting the recession conditions, but not spectacularly so – business investment fell 3.5%, including a fall of 6.8% in machinery and equipment and a partly offsetting rise in infrastructure investment; residential construction fell by 6.8%; and real estate activities fell by 18.6%.
Nevertheless we can expect that the lags from recessionary conditions in the June quarter will continue to impact business investment and housing for the remainder of the year.
Exports fell by 6.7% (including a 24.6% fall in travel services and a 46.6% fall in transportation services) while imports fell 12.9% as the international border closure triggered a 98.7% fall in travel services and a 32.9% fall in transportation services. Overall net exports contributed 1.0ppt to GDP growth.
The growth outlook for the remainder of the year will be dependent on the success which government achieve in containing the virus.
On the positive side we assess that the economy had considerable momentum going into the September quarter following the 4% snap back in hours worked in June and the lift in jobs in June and July. Of course that momentum was severely impacted by the deterioration in Victoria which represents around 24% of national GDP.
Our current figuring points to a flat quarter overall in September to be followed by a strong recovery in the December quarter. That recovery is dependent upon our base assumptions that Victoria will move through to a Stage2 in the December quarter while other states will avoid any damaging second waves.
As we have seen in today’s report the governments’ support packages have played a key role in containing the impact on household incomes from the containment policies. The December quarter will – on current policy settings – see a considerable scale back in that support affecting both households and business.
However, as demonstrated by the spike in the savings rate, the household balance sheet is in much better shape to cope with the partial withdrawal of the government payments.
The upcoming Federal budget, on October 6, provides the government with another opportunity to reassess and reset policy support. The annual Budget will undoubtedly be expansionary, the question is the degree of additional stimulus and the form that takes. The bringing forward of already legislated income tax cuts is an appropriate action in the current environment.
Overall we expect that the net positive effect of the general reopening of the state economies on the consumer sector, including relaxation of key state border restrictions will underpin a strong recovery in the December quarter.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

What does the record 7% collapse in GDP mean? Bill Evans

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Household spending was the biggest drag on the economy: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The 7 per cent fall in the economy in the June quarter is the biggest decline since quarterly records began in 1959. In annual terms, the economy fell 6.3 per cent in the June quarter. The annual decline is similar to the 5.8 per cent fall in the economy in 1945 (5.8 per cent fall) but smaller than the 14.3 per cent decline recorded in 1931.
This is not your typical recession. It hasn’t occurred because there has been some policy mistake – like the Reserve Bank leaving interest rates too high. Inflation remains under control – prices are neither surging nor plunging. There has been no balance of payments crisis – record trade surpluses are being reported. And the federal budget was broadly balanced at the start of 2020. Rather the recession is the result of a community lockdown to battle a one-in-a-hundred-year pandemic. And the whole world has been similarly affected. 
Policymakers certainly aren’t sitting on their hands. An unprecedented amount of stimulus has been applied to the economy by governments and the Reserve Bank. Barring more second waves from the virus, the worst appears to be over for the economy. The hope over the coming months is that Victoria – and to a lesser extent, NSW, - can join the rest of the country in being relative ‘virus free’. 
It’s not your typical recession because home prices are still at or near record highs. Annual growth of retail spending is at 19-year highs. The Aussie dollar is just off two-month highs. And share prices are 36 per cent up from lows. 
The economic recovery has begun. But the path is uncertain and likely to be bumpy. The battle for normalcy has only just begun. 
We expect the jobless rate will rise from 7.5 per cent currently to around 9 per cent in the next few months. The aim will be to quickly get people back to work as the longer they are away from workplaces, the less employable they are likely to be. 
Somewhat perversely, there were two positive aspects in the data. Aussies saved more – the household saving ratio rose by 19.8 per cent in the quarter. Clearly it was hard to spend in lockdown but the government topped up people’s bank accounts. And productivity increased. GDP per hours worked rose 3.1 per cent. These are two elements that had been causing angst for policymakers in recent times.
What do the figures show? 
Economic Growth: The Aussie economy contracted 7.0 per cent in the June quarter after easing 0.3 per cent in the March quarter. It was the biggest contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in the 60-year history of the series. 
The economy contracted by 6.3 per cent in the year to June. Growth has previously averaged 2.6 per cent over the decade and averaged 2.7 per cent over the last 15 years.
The non-farm economy fell by 7.1 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.2 per cent fall in the March quarter. Nonfarm GDP is down 6.3 per cent over the year. 
Farm GDP fell by 2.3 per cent in the June quarter to be down 6.0 per cent over the year.  At current prices, GDP fell by 7.6 per cent in the June quarter after rising by 0.9 per cent in the quarter. Nominal GDP fell 5.9 per cent on the year (decade average +4.5 per cent).
As at June 2020 the Australian economy was valued at $1,981.6 billion.
GDP per capita fell 7.2 per cent in the June quarter to be down 7.4 per cent. 
Contribution to the overall result: The biggest contributions to growth came from net exports (+1.0 percentage points); public investment (+0.1pp) and government consumption (+0.6pp). But detracting from growth was household spending (-6.7pp); inventories (-0.6pp); dwellings (-0.4pp); business equipment (-0.5pp) and other private investment (-0.4pp). 
Inflation &amp; wages: In terms of domestic price pressures, the household consumption implicit price deflator fell by 0.8 per cent in the June quarter. Annual growth eased from 1.9 per cent to 0.5 per cent. Real non-farm unit labour costs fell by 9.8 per cent in the June quarter and was down 9.3 per cent over the year.
The terms of trade rose 0.2 per cent in the June quarter to be down 1.8 per cent on the year. 
Productivity: GDP per hour worked rose by 3.1 per cent in the June quarter to be up by 4.1 per cent on the year. GDP per hours worked in the market sector soared 5.9 per cent in the quarter to be up 7.3 per cent on the year.
States &amp; Territories: The only data available is state final demand (more accurate data would include net exports but it is not available for all states and territories). State final demand in the June quarter: NSW (down 8.6 per cent); Victoria (down 8.5 per cent); Queensland (down 5.9 per cent); South Australia (down 5.8 per cent); Western Australia (down 6.0 per cent); Tasmania (down 7.4 per cent); Northern Territory (down 4.9 per cent); and ACT (down 2.2 per cent).
Consumer spending: Household spending fell by a record 12.1 per cent in the March quarter to be down 12.7 per cent for the year. Hotels, cafes and restaurants fell 56.1 per cent and Transport services fell by 85.9 per cent. Spending on furnishings and household equipment rose 9.5 per cent with Alcoholic beverages up 13.0 per cent.
The ABS notes: “Spending on services fell 17.6 per cent reflecting temporary shutdown of businesses and movement restrictions. Spending on goods fell 2.8 per cent driven by record falls in operation of vehicles and clothing and footwear, while spending on food recorded the biggest decline since June 1983.”
Industry sectors: Fifteen of the 19 industry sectors contracted in the June quarter. The biggest contribution to the overall decline in output came from Transport postal and warehousing (-0.9 percentage points) from Accommodation and food services (- 0.8pp) and Administration and support services (- 0.7pp). Output rose in Mining, Education and training; Public administration and safety; and Financial and Insurance Services. 
Other points: Profit share at record high. In seasonally adjusted terms, the ratio of profits to total factor income rose from 29.0 per cent in the March quarter to 31.1 per cent in the June quarter. The wages share fell from a 2-year high of 52.5 per cent to 49.4 per cent. 
Household savings ratio. The household saving ratio rose from 6.0 per cent in the March quarter to 19.8 per cent in the June quarter in seasonally adjusted terms. 
Imports rose as a share of spending. The imports to sales ratio fell from an 11-year high of 0.378 to 0.397 in the June quarter – not far from 11-year highs. 
The private non-farm inventories to total sales ratio rose from 0.581 to 0.604 in the June quarter.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors? 
In the current September quarter the economy may end up contracting around 1 per cent, due largely to the lockdown in Victoria. Over the 2020 year the economy may contract by around 4 per cent – the biggest annual decline in 75 years. 
But it could’ve been worse. The Reserve Bank initially estimated that the pandemic contraction would be near 10 per cent in the June quarter. And GDP has contracted by an average of 11 per cent in the quarter for the 20 or so advanced economies to report so far. 
There is no shortage of stimulus to get the economy back on its feet. But money is not the problem – this is a health crisis, causing an economic downturn. There are encouraging signs of virus suppression in Victoria and NSW. But the path is uncertain. 
The fiscal roadmap in next month’s federal budget will be critical to economic recovery – as will developments on virus treatments and vaccines. 
Quite amazingly, data today showed a record 7 per cent economic contraction and the sharemarket was untroubled – currently up by around 1.8 per cent. The Aussie dollar eased from highs near US73.80 cents to US73.35 cents after the data release.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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It's not a typical recession: CommSec's Craig James

<html><body>
The Australian Gross Domestic Product fell seven per cent in the June quarter, the largest quarterly fall on record, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today.
This follows a fall of 0.3 per cent in the March quarter 2020, with Australia now officially entering a recession.
The biggest quarterly contraction on record has confirmed Australia’s first recession since the 1990s and its most severe economic blow since World War II.
Head of national accounts at the ABS, Michael Smedes said, “The global pandemic and associated containment policies led to a 7.0 per cent fall in GDP for the June quarter. This is, by a wide margin, the largest fall in quarterly GDP since records began in 1959.”
"The June quarter saw a significant contraction in household spending on services as households altered their behaviour and restrictions were put in place to contain the spread of the coronavirus."
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/9/2/GDP.jpg" alt="">
Net trade contributed 1.0 percentage points to GDP. Imports of goods fell 2.4 per cent, with falls in consumption and capital goods reflecting weak domestic demand. Imports of services fell 50.5 per cent and exports of services fell 18.4 per cent, due to restrictions on travel and tourism.
Public demand contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP, driven by health related spending by the state and local government. Defence spending also increased as personnel were deployed to assist with management of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The household saving to income ratio rose to 19.8 per cent from 6.0 per cent, driven by the fall in consumption expenditure. Hours worked fell a record 9.8 per cent, outpacing the record 2.5 per cent decline in wages which were supported by JobKeeper payments. Social assistance benefits in cash rose a record 41.6 per cent, due to increased number of recipients and additional support payments.
General government net saving fell to -$82.6 billion from $1.2 billion in the March quarter 2020.
CBA was one entity that was off the mark with a less pessimistic outlook than the market consensus, which was a 6 per cent contraction for the economy.
Commonwealth Bank economist Kim Mundy believed GDP will have fallen by 5.4 per cent in the June quarter.
A month ago CBA changed their forecasts, with head of Australian economics Gareth Aird saying the Melbourne lockdowns have changed their thinking.
They cut the GDP growth forecast to -4.2 per cent for 2020, worse than the -3.8 per cent predicted before the lockdowns.
"There will be a huge disparity in economic outcomes between Victoria and the rest of Australia in Q3 20", Aird said.
Economist Lindsey David tweeted, "That GDP report was once-in-a-lifetime."
APAC economist Callum Pickering said, "over the past decade the Australian economy has expanded by just 1.7% a year on average. Adjusted for population growth and real GDP has increased by just 0.2% a year. Even before COVID-19 we had experienced a long period of relatively low growth.
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

GDP plummets 7%, the largest fall ever, as Australian recession begins

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EXPERT OBSERVER
It’s wrong to expect a “snap-back” at shopping centres, food courts, cinemas and other places where people used to gather to spend money.
We’ve identified three reasons why spending in physical stores on goods like clothes is likely to remain much lower than it was for a long time.
<h2>1. Fear, much of it age-based</h2>
First, even when governments relax restrictions, lots of people will still be worried and will go out less. Unless there are zero cases for several weeks in a state or city, many people will remain reluctant to go out.
This is why we have previously argued that there is a big dividend in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-endgame-c-stop-almost-everything-restart-when-coronavirus-is-gone-134232" target="_blank">eliminating</a> COVID-19 in the style of New Zealand, the Northern Territory, and South Australia, rather than bumping along with “suppression” – and several new locally-acquired cases a day – as Victoria is still doing.
This reluctance to go out and spend, irrespective of government restrictions, could be seen in Australia before government restrictions were imposed, as shown on the “Consumers and mobility” tab of the <a href="https://grattan.shinyapps.io/covid-econ-tracker/" target="_blank">Grattan Econ Tracker</a>.
The effects of fear shouldn’t be underestimated.
Spending in <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04630.pdf" target="_blank">Sweden</a> has fallen almost as much as in Denmark, even when Denmark was in lockdown and Sweden had minimal restrictions. Swedes are afraid to go out, particularly if they are old.
Spending by people aged 70+ has fallen further in Sweden than in Denmark, and 60-69 year-olds have cut their spending by about the same amount in both countries.
This isn’t surprising. COVID-19 is much more deadly for older people.
Age-based fear is a challenge for retailers because older households now spend significantly more than younger households. 25 years ago it was the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/920-Generation-Gap.pdf" target="_blank">other way around</a>.
<h2>2. Time to form new habits</h2>
Second, we are likely to keep spending on different things, and using different channels, even after restrictions are lifted.
Habits tend to form when behaviour changes consistently. They strengthen over time, and are particularly sticky once behaviour has been consistent for a <a href="http://repositorio.ispa.pt/bitstream/10400.12/3364/1/IJSP_998-1009.pdf" target="_blank">period of months</a> – and we’ve been living with lockdown for that long in Australia.
Once formed, the new habits can persist unless there is another shock.
Australians have become used to doing more of their purchasing online. They have become used to spending more on living comfortably at home, and less on clothes for the office and to go out.
After the shutdown, people are likely to continue to work from home more often.
The habits of shopping remotely, and spending more on home furnishings and less on clothes, are likely to continue, and they would be likely to continue even if COVID-19 vanished tomorrow.
<h2>3. Global recession</h2>
Third, irrespective of COVID-19 regulations and behaviours, we are heading into an “old-fashioned”, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33748" target="_blank">globally synchronised, deep recession</a>.
For the moment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-key-to-the-success-of-the-130-billion-wage-subsidy-is-retrospective-paid-work-135042" target="_blank">JobKeeper</a>, the temporarily-boosted <a href="https://theconversation.com/scalable-without-limit-how-the-government-plans-to-get-coronavirus-support-into-our-hands-quickly-134353" target="_blank">JobSeeker</a> payment, and a recent <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/NAB-Data-Insights-May-Report.pdf" target="_blank">bounceback</a>, have resulted in <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/guidance/business/commbank-card-spending-data-shows-modest-lift-202006" target="_blank">spending on credit and debit cards</a> a bit more than this time last year.
But unemployment jumped to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">7.1%</a> on Thursday. That official rate understates how bad things are.
In May an extra 227,700 Australians lost their jobs (on top of 607,400 in April).
But only 85,000 of them were counted as unemployed. When and if the bulk of those people look for work, the unemployment rate will climb further.
Employed Australians, total
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342603/original/file-20200618-41230-ffex5d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342603/original/file-20200618-41230-ffex5d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Includes Australians regarded as still employed because they are on JobKeeper. <a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0" target="_blank">ABS 6202.0</a>
After JobKeeper <a href="https://theconversation.com/whatll-happen-when-the-moneys-snatched-back-our-looming-coronavirus-support-cliff-138527" target="_blank">ends in September</a> (or is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-improve-jobkeeper-hint-it-would-help-not-to-pay-businesses-late-140435" target="_blank">phased out</a> as a result of the government’s review) many of the three million people on it will also become counted as unemployed.
Australians who have lost their jobs are likely to spend less than they did before.
After each of the previous two recessions it took <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/dont-expect-a-v-shaped-recovery-after-the-pandemic/" target="_blank">years</a> for employment to recover.
<h2>Spending need not recover after COVID</h2>
These three factors – fear, new habits, and recession – are present in countries and regions that seem to be well clear of coronavirus.
Much of China has been free of most government restrictions for months. Manufacturing and infrastructure spending has largely returned to pre-COVID levels.
But consumer activity is still <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/china/retail-sales-annual" target="_blank">below pre-COVID levels</a>, and it is inching up only slowly.
Australia might well see an “opening party” on the day each particular COVID-19 restriction is lifted.
But after that, the best guess is that consumer spending will remain very subdued and refocused for a long time.
For those in the hardest-hit <a href="https://theconversation.com/which-jobs-are-most-at-risk-from-the-coronavirus-shutdown-134680" target="_blank">sectors</a> and <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/06/the-latest-jobs-data-shows-urban-electorates-are-now-being-hit-hardest-by-covid-19/" target="_blank">regions</a> – particularly arts and recreation, hospitality, and clothing – the pain will continue long after the restrictions are lifted.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140628/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank">John Daley</a>, Chief Executive Officer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/retail-wont-snap-back-3-reasons-why-covid-has-changed-the-way-we-shop-perhaps-forever-140628" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Retail won’t snap back. 3 reasons why COVID has changed the way we shop, perhaps forever

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
<div>GDP growth was estimated at a seasonally adjusted -0.3 per cent for Q1, leading to the inevitably mind-numbing 'recession we had to have' headlines. Over the year GDP growth slowed to +1.4 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Q1 could yet be revised up, of course - especially the very significant negative drag from inventories - and therefore the technical definition of a recession may yet be avoided. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, given that GDP growth in Q2 will clearly be severely negative this is largely semantics.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pt_Gww_Reuc/XtgnFuMgFeI/AAAAAAAA2HQ/vLAGeFkHn3M9QOwI61ZNNpoOjf5yT5T5ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1381"></div>
 Nominal GDP growth over the year is floundering again. 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZfLhyXG8ULc/XtgnF37tlzI/AAAAAAAA2HU/Mx852eP3OhEMtJBOxcGwPqRhzAM8SiTUQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1401"></div>
 
<div>Real net national disposable income, as a proxy for living standards, has been fairly flat over the past six months. </div>
 
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 And the terms of trade have held up well to date, well above the long-run average. 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HXTaXlH0wVI/XtgnGmiASCI/AAAAAAAA2Hg/GtnNP1jk36kKzW5yBz4CndeKKYu-AX0eQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1348"></div>
 
<div>Meanwhile, the interest payable on dwellings continues to fall, now down to the lowest level since 2009 despite the dramatic increase in the dwelling stock over that time.</div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MgkJhBkDCVg/XtgnGUlHiqI/AAAAAAAA2Hc/AKW1kQicX989EsVNqJ18tMPoeYSvBpyeQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1364"></div>
 
<div>Stimulus mixed</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>With the Reserve Bank fading quietly into the background, the government must now do the heavy lifting with its fiscal stimulus.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Aussie dollar has accordingly soared back towards US 70 cents, in turn slowing the adjustment process. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The terms of the $688 million renovation stimulus missed the mark completely, leaving such a skinny cohort of prospective qualifying applicants that the government needn't have bothered with it. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Essentially you must own a house and undertake an expensive renovation within the next few months, but without having a high income (while a whole heap of renovation options are excluded): </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F-4fNLv_G3U/XtgoiKsKFjI/AAAAAAAA2H4/wHgQFtbv05Ixdzimj9Xru2Jnvr8LUCxXQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/rebo.jpg" width="640" height="606" data-original-height="723" data-original-width="762"></div>
<div>
 Perhaps some retirees might qualify for a grant, and maybe a few young homeowners with wealthy parents. 
</div>
<div>The terms of the HomeBuilder grant scheme for new homes are far better targeted, and will undoubtedly be a net positive for the industry. </div>
<div>
 PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

GDP headed down, recession all but locked in: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It is well-established that recessions hit young people the hardest.
We saw it in our early 1980s recession, our early 1990s recession, and in the one we are now entering.
The latest <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6160.0.55.001Main%20Features4Week%20ending%202%20May%202020" target="_blank">payroll data</a> shows that for most age groups, employment fell 5% to 6% between mid-March and May. For workers in their 20s, it fell 10.7%
The most dramatic divergence in the fortunes of young and older Australians came in the mid 1970s recession when the unemployment rate for those aged 15-19 shot up from 4% to 10% in the space of one year. A year later it was 12%, and 15% a year after that.
<hr>
Unemployment rates 1971-1977
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336271/original/file-20200520-152288-16b5n6o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336271/original/file-20200520-152288-16b5n6o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6203.0">ABS 6203.0</a>
<hr>
At the time, 15 to 19 years of age was when young people got jobs. Only one third completed Year 12.
What is less well known is how long the effects lasted. They seem to be present more than 40 years later.
The Australians who were 15 to 19 years old at the time of the mid-1970s recession were born in the early 1960s.
In almost every recent <a href="http://positivepsychology.org.uk/subjective-well-being/" target="_blank">subjective well-being</a> survey they have performed worse that those born before or after that period.
Subjective well-being is determined by asking respondents how satisified they are with their lives on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is totally dissatisfied and 10 is totally satisfied.
Australia’s Household, Income and Labour Dynamics survey (<a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda" target="_blank">HILDA</a>) has been asking the question since 2001.
In order to fairly compare the life satisfaction of different generations it is necessary to adjust the findings to compensate for other things known to affect satisfaction including income, gender, marital status, education and employment status.
Doing that and selecting the 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 surveys to examine how children born at the start of the 1960s have fared relative to those born earlier and later, shows that regardless of their age at the time of the survey, they are less satisfied than those born at other times.
<hr>
Subjective wellbeing by birth cohort over four HILDA surveys
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336287/original/file-20200520-152311-h03y48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336287/original/file-20200520-152311-h03y48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Subjective well-being on a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 is totally dissatisfied and 10 is totally satisfied. <a class="source" href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda" target="_blank">Regressions available upon request</a>
The consistency of lower levels of subjective well-being reported by the 1961-1965 birth cohort suggests something has had a lasting effect.
An obvious candidate is the dramatic increase in the rate of youth unemployment in at the time many of this age group were trying to get a job.
Over time, labour markets can recover but the scars of entering the labour market during a time of sudden high unemployment can be permanent.
The impacts of the early 1980s and early 1990s recessions on young people were alleviated somewhat by the doubling of the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4220.0" target="_blank">Year 12 retention rate</a> and later by the doubling of <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/student-data" target="_blank">university enrolments</a>.
But the education sector is maxed out and might not be able to perform the same trick for the third recession in a row.
Reinvigorating apprenticeships and providing cadetships for non-trade occupations might help. Otherwise the effects of the 2020 recession on an unlucky group of Australians might stay with us for a very long time.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137236/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jenny-chesters-869325" target="_blank">Jenny Chesters</a>, Senior Lecturer/ Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/recessions-scar-young-people-their-entire-lives-even-into-retirement-137236" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Recessions scar young people their entire lives, even into retirement

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EXPERT OBSERVER
More carnage overnight with US stocks down another -10 per cent again in early trade to smash into the circuit breakers, with the Dow Jones shedding -36 per cent in less than a month, before a late rally.
<div id="post-body-2582528096951691734" class="post-body entry-content">
The oil price (WTI) was down at nearly $20 at one stage, before a bouncing to $22, nestling in at the lowest level since the early 2000s...so there are some value plays emerging there.
But overall, cash is king at the moment while stock market valuations continue to mean revert.
This risks sounding like a broken record, but it bears repeating that overall US stocks are still far too expensive given the outlook, and could yet fall another -30 per cent even from here (if things got really bad they could go much lower).
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lq18M1eZhts/XnKhiiXFqbI/AAAAAAAA0vY/zUHAiE2ggegAqwyOYEAT9qR84VyY8a3tQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CAPE.jpg" width="640" height="308" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="1090"></div>
 <div>Source: Shiller PE</div>
 Don't forget that previously healthy earnings are about to be decimated, with JPM forecasting US GDP to shrink by 4 per cent in Q1 and 14 per cent in Q2. I can't watch another fund manager video demanding that you stay fully invested with them. It's time to step away from the noise and remember the <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2020/03/16/applying-the-8-timeless-principles-in-a-bear-market/" target="_blank">8 timeless principles</a>! The <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2020/01/04/maximising-your-long-term-wealth-with-the-kelly-criterion/" target="_blank">Kelly criterion</a> demands that you keep cash aside and live to fight another day - especially when markets are as overvalued as they have been - as better opportunities will always come around in the future. Remember Rule #1: don't lose money. The Aussie market stock index may catch a bid after a European stimulus announcement this morning. This is Lagarde's own 'whatever it takes' moment, but the ECB promising no limits to its commitment to the Euro, and another massive asset purchase programme. Still on the balance of probabilities the Aussie index increasingly looks likely to hit late 2009 levels this week in the 4,800s range this month. This is a swift and brutal lesson in the importance of <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2019/12/29/the-magic-of-rebalancing/" target="_blank">rebalancing</a> and keeping cash aside for future opportunities arising, with a decade of price gains erased in about 20 trades. Buy and hold at all times has been mistaken at times as a panacea or even a religion, but it's not; you need and do whatever it takes to keep yourself around to capitalise on the opportunities. 'Whatever it takes' moment
 
A historic An historic A momentous day ahead for Australian financial markets.
The Reserve Bank is set to make a landmark announcement at 2.30pm Sydney time, with Governor Lowe lined up to speak thereafter at 4pm.
Lowe will likely discuss an emergency cut in the official cash rate to 0.25 per cent, central bank purchases of government bonds, the ongoing conducting of repo operations, and other measures to ensure that credit continues to flow to households and businesses. 
Global cases of the coronavirus continue to increase at this stage, suggesting that a serious disruption to the global economy lies squarely ahead, although known cases in Australia remain relatively low at this stage. 
 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PpQcwNO9df0/XnKlqpCKgHI/AAAAAAAA0vg/zHXvgYR03PYK6i4HO-HDdOhrRudmyWKYACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="503" data-original-width="828">
Daily new cases hit fresh highs yesterday (the February 12 spike was a data collation or measurement issue).
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QesSeFEsy4A/XnKs4AK_b6I/AAAAAAAA0vo/i5BTQupD2EEaQuoc-z-AD4xeoeGEq6pVACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Cases.jpg" width="640" height="342" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="897"></div>
 The biggest surge in cases lately has been in Italy, with 35,713 cases and 2,978 deaths recorded to date. Recession ahead Major bank economists see the Aussie unemployment rate rising to 7 to 8 per cent (not that you can really forecast in the present environment), while the government's initial stimulus package probably isn't enough to save the economy from printing negative growth for both the first and the second quarter of the year.  
This would lock in Australia's first recession in three decades. 
Recent years been characterised by the Reserve Bank 'leaning against' asset prices and continually undershooting the inflation target, with persistently slow growth in wages and living standards.
Nobody could've predicted the great trifecta of drought, bushfires, and a global pandemic, of course, but the economy was already running well below potential before these shocks. 
At this stage all we have is mostly anecdotes about the likely state of the economy, but so many of them reflect sharp drops in revenue, income, commissions, and profits, that this is no time for half measures.
Markets will be looking for a 'whatever it takes' pledge and from Lowe, and the use of unlimited monetary ammunition until things stabilise. Anything less than that will be brushed aside in the savage market conditions. From the government's perspective infrastructure programs and tax cuts aren't going to cut it. What's needed is putting cash into the hands of households and small businesses today...to prevent the R from becoming a D. They'll write books about all this next year; it's been a momentous month. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
</div>
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Infrastructure programs and tax cuts won't be enough: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
On Monday, March 9, we forecast that the Australian economy would experience a recession in 2020 with the economy contracting by 0.6% in the first half although we expected growth in the second half of 2.2% as the economy recovered from the disruption associated with COVID-19.
Our central assumption was that the COVID-19 threat would peak in the June quarter and by quarter’s end confidence and activity would begin to recover.
We described 2020 as a severe disruption or technical recession to differentiate from the last two recessions in Australia when the unemployment rate spiralled from 6% to 11%.
Our figuring last week set the forecast peak in the unemployment rate at around 5.8%- 6%, up from the current level of 5.3%.
The relatively modest increase in the unemployment rate was particularly reflective of the expectation that the disruption would be relatively short when compared to earlier recessions and viewed as such by business that there would be a degree of labour hoarding.
Later in the week we analysed the Government’s $17.6 billion Stimulus Package and concluded that the Package would not be sufficiently stimulative to avert a recession in 2020.
Our key assumptions around the Package focussed on the likely impact on spending from the $4.76 billion payments to pensioners and social security recipients and the instant asset write off provisions.
We assessed that pensioners would save around 75% of payments and social security recipients would save around 60%.
Pensioners are likely to be cautious given the collapse in bank deposit rates and health concerns. In that regard the 13.8% collapse in confidence amongst the over 65 year olds in the latest Westpac MI Consumer Sentiment Survey signals caution. Social security recipients will be unnerved by the COVID -19 threats and discouraged by the “one off” nature of the income boost.
We differed with the Government’s figuring around the lift in business investment associated with the “instant asset write off” package assuming around $2 billion compared to the Government’s estimate of $5-6 billion. With business confidence fragile going into the COVID-19 shock and weakening further we expect businesses will be cautious around boosting spending.
Nevertheless, we noted that the Package was likely to boost activity in the June quarter by 0.4% of GDP largely offsetting the estimated contraction. However we noted that conditions had deteriorated over the week and the “pre-package” contraction was now likely to be larger than estimated early last week.
In that regard our revised estimates of GDP growth in the March and June quarters, after adjusting for the Stimulus Package, are minus 0.7% and minus 0.3% respectively - a total contraction of 1% of GDP.
Recall that our estimate early last week was a total contraction of 0.6%, before adjusting for the Stimulus Package.
So what has changed?
Most notably we have seen mandatory quarantine requirements for international travellers; restrictions on large public gatherings; a brutal sell off in the global equity markets; and reports of limited liquidity in government and corporate debt markets.
Not surprisingly, as these events have moved quickly, we have made some major changes to our estimates of the impact of COVID-19 in both the March quarter and the June quarter.
We have increased our estimate of the shock to the most exposed component of consumer spending (hotels; restaurants and cafes; recreational services; and air travel) to minus 40% over the two quarters from minus 25%.
We have increased the expected shock to consumer durables to minus 7% and revised up the negative impact on home renovations and additions.
We expect outbound and inbound tourism to contract by 80% over the two quarters.
Overall we now see consumer spending contracting by 0.1% (March quarter) and 2.8% (June quarter) before recovering by 1.9% in the September quarter and 1.0% in the December quarter.
We have also made adjustments to inventories; government spending (lifting health expenditure further).
Growth through 2020 is now estimated at 1.5% with minus 1% in the first half and 2.5% in the second half.
The unemployment rate is now forecast to reach 7% by October 2020 (up from the previous estimate of 5.8%-6.0%) due to the larger negative shocks to the labour intensive sectors such as recreation; tourism; education; renovations and additions; and dwelling construction. This lift in the unemployment rate is despite reducing the participation rate from 66.1% to 65.4% as a discouraged worker effect – that is, as workers respond to a deteriorating labour market the participation rate is likely to decline.
Please note that these forecasts are not based on Australia following a European style full lock down. Not surprisingly, the forecasts are subject to downward revision in the event of such an occurrence.
This article was <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42362" target="_blank">first published on WestpacIQ</a>
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BILL EVANS is the <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/news/authors/bill-evans/" target="_blank">chief economist at Westpac</a>.
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Westpac revise 2020 forecasts, deeper recession and 7% unemployment: Bill Evans

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Nearly 90 per cent of Finder.com.au's RBA Survey have predicted Australia will see a recession this year.
The 15 strong survey of experts and economists saw 13 say a recession was now likely. Back in December, around the same number of experts said there wouldn't be a recession.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder.com.au, said fear of recession among the general public had been brewing for a while, although economists had until now, were more optimistic. "We've seen fear of recession among the Australian public grow over recent months, while the vast majority of economists were saying it wouldn't happen.  “COVID-19 pouncing unexpectedly on an already weakened Australian economy, has very much changed the game."
Two thirds of the experts surveyed however believe any recession would be over by the end of the year.
Over half of the survey (53%) predict an emergency rate cut this week, which would see rates drop to a historic low 0.25 per cent.
"Only a few days before the last RBA cut two weeks ago, 85% of economists said they did not expect a cut and only half thought the ASX 200 would drop by 10% in value", Cooke said. “Within a week, we had a cut and a 20% drop. This signals the sheer severity and speed of the coronavirus impact." Around half of the economists who responded to the last-minute survey (53%) expected the RBA to make an emergency cash rate cut this week.
Yesterday Westpac announced that they expect an interest rate cut and an announcement for quantitative easing to happen this week.
Most experts believe house prices will be negatively affected, with 20 per cent expecting a significant drop and 60 per cent expecting a slight drop.
Cooke said a downturn in the market could present a window for cashed-up Aussies ready to buy. “If you’re one of the first-time buyers who missed out on the 2019 price dip, 2020 could provide a second bite at the apple.  “Keep a close eye on your local market, but be careful – nobody knows what may be around the corner or how long this coronavirus dampening could really last,” Cooke said.
 
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