A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

Sherpa Group has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at Flourish Soleira in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with Flourish Amargo, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Joel Robinson

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

<html><body>
There's been plenty of speculation about the looming cliff faced by the interest only borrowers who are due to have their loans reset to the pricier principal and interest loans.
It comes as large price falls in some parts of Australia has meant some borrowers are facing negative equity – where the outstanding balance on the loan exceeds the value of the property it is secured against.
While this negative equity creates vulnerabilities both for borrowers, especially if they are selling, and their lenders, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently noted it doesn't anticipate risk to the financial stability of the economy.
Certainly nothing like the impact of negative equity peaks in the United States at over 25% in 2012 and in Ireland at 35%, as prices fell 30 and 50% respectively.
The RBA noted around 10% of loans in negative equity have interest only terms expiring in 2019.
Loans currently in negative equity were, on average, taken out around five years ago and had higher average Loan to Value Ratios (LVRs) at origination, of around 85%.
For these borrowers, the increase in repayments may be distressing for the borrowers and for the communities they live in.
The RBA research shows that negative equity is concentrated in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory, largely restricted to mining-exposed regions.
These locations account for 90% of mortgage debt in negative equity.
The RBA maintains the low rates of negative equity outside the mining-exposed regions reflect three factors: the previous substantial increases in prices; the low share of loans written at high LVRs; and the fact that many households are ahead on their loans.
The RBA cautions that further significant housing price falls in Sydney and Melbourne would see negative equity increase, but widespread defaults are unlikely, the RBA financial stability review suggested.
Any increase the incidence of negative equity will only arise with those high LVR borrowers.
Across Australia, around 11% of national loans have a current LVR between 95 and 100%.
Housing prices in some areas of Sydney and Melbourne have fallen by close to 20% from their 2017 peak.
But the RBA review noted only a small share actually purchased at peak prices, and many experienced rises before prices fell.
Properties purchased in Sydney and Melbourne since prices peaked account for 2% of the national dwelling stock.
Properties purchased in these two cities since prices were last at current levels only account for 4.5% of the dwelling stock.
Few recent borrowers have had been allowed loans with high LVRs.
In fact, over the past five years, the share of loans with LVRs above 90% has halved.
Since 2017, it has averaged less than 7%.
Around 80% of loans are issued with an LVR of 80% or less.
Given most borrowers do not have high LVRs, housing price falls will need to be larger for widespread negative equity.
Of course, if a borrower has also paid off some of their debt then price declines will need to be larger still.
Around 70% of loans are estimated to be at least one month ahead, with 30% ahead by two years or more.
When a borrower is behind on repayments, banks classify the loan as impaired.
Currently the impaired housing loans rate sits at 0.2% of all mortgages. 
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Australian negative equity remains below 2% of borrowers: RBA

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
The RBA minutes clearly indicate that they are willing to cut the cash rate and have set out the conditions that need to be fulfilled for it to occur.
We are encouraged by this new detail, and continue to believe the RBA will cut the cash rate in August and November this year.
The minutes of the April monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board have provided the clearest signal yet that the Bank would be prepared to cut the cash rate.
Firstly, the final section “Considerations for Monetary Policy” states “a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and via reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure”.
The Board even sets out the conditions for a rate cut, “members also discussed the scenario where inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up, noting that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate in these circumstances”.
The Board also notes that “members agreed that there was not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy”. We would interpret the “near-term” concept as referring to the next Board meeting in May. We do not believe that statement excludes the possibility of our target timing of August for the first rate cut.
Of course, while the Board refers to “continued strength in the labour market data and moderating GDP growth sending different signals”, it would appear that the labour market data has a higher weighting from a policy perspective.
We are somewhat perplexed by that approach, given that employment is seen to be a lagging variable, and while the lags may be longer in this cycle, we think it is reasonable that the slowdown in expenditure and income growth will eventually weigh on jobs growth.
The minutes even refer to the evidence around forward looking indicators of labour demand being mixed with job advertisements having eased but job vacancies having increased as a share of the labour force. What is unclear is whether businesses, in a climate of softening demand, actually intend filling these vacancies.
We were interested that the Governor excluded his standard growth forecast for the current year in his Statement immediately following the April Board meeting. The minutes also exclude that forecast while pointing out that the 2018 growth rate of 2.3% was “below the forecasts presented in the February Statement on Monetary Policy”.
It appears almost certain that the RBA will lower its growth forecast for 2019 from 3% (above-trend) to 2.75% (around trend). Of course, the RBA has consistently argued that growth in 2020 will be a 0.25% below 2019 due to a slowdown in the contribution to growth from LNG exports. If it is to be true to that approach then it will have to forecast growth in 2020 at 2.5% (below trend).
Traditionally, central banks which are forecasting below trend growth should at the least be adopting an easing bias.
The tension between growth and the labour market data may allow a looser interpretation of the policy stance. Certainly, the approach taken in these minutes appears to point to a bias towards lower rather than higher rates, although ongoing strength in the labour market will keep rates on hold, at least for the time being.
Further support for this ‘bias’ interpretation comes with the observation that “financial market pricing implied that the cash rate was expected to be lowered in the second half of 2019 and then again in 2020”.
While in previous commentaries, the RBA was dismissive of a significant wealth effect, or a near-term downturn in dwelling construction, these minutes are more realistic.
Weakness in consumption, is noted to be concentrated in those items that are historically most correlated with housing prices and housing turnover, and the RBA’s liaison suggested that growth in housing related consumption had remained soft in recent months.
Dwelling investment is noted to be past its peak but there is still uncertainty about how quickly dwelling investment might decline with a large amount of work still in the pipeline. Westpac expects a contraction in new dwelling investment of around 10% in 2019.
Conditions in the established housing market are noted to have remained weak in recent months, with house prices continuing to fall in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, and even declining in most other capital cities and regional areas.
The RBA offers no forward guidance as to how far this cycle has to run. Westpac expects that this market will remain soft throughout the course of 2019 and well into 2020.
Conclusion
We have been encouraged by these minutes from the perspective of our rate cut call.
The Board has made a clear case for the benefits of lower interest rates, discounting arguments to suggest that it sees little benefit from lowering rates given the very low starting point.
The Board also lays out clearly the conditions for lowering those rates around inflation and the labour market. It appears that it has resolved the uncertainty around the conflicting signals between growth and employment by favouring the labour market.
That is disappointing for us, given that the previous policy responses have been linked to growth forecasts, although we expect that persistently slow growth should begin weigh on the labour market.
While prospects for a policy response in May have disappeared, there is still ample time and data releases to justify our timing that there will be cash rate cuts in August and November.
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac.
You can read the full <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2019/2019-04-02">RBA Statement here</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

RBA Board minutes set out the conditions for a rate cut: Westpac's Bill Evans 

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
This is an extract from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Financial Stability Review.
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Over the past three years, there has been a shift in lending for property towards non-ADI lenders, also referred to as non-bank lenders.
Residential mortgage lending by non-banks is estimated to have been growing much faster than the rate of banks’ mortgage lending.
Non-bank lending to property developers has also grown at a fast pace.
They perform similar functions to banks and lend to a wide range of borrowers.
They finance their lending by securitising loans or with funding from private investors, such as high net worth individuals and institutional investors.
Non-bank lenders are prohibited from accepting deposits, and are therefore not prudentially regulated.
Non-bank lending supports economic growth by providing an alternative form of funding and increasing competition for lending. But the activities of non-bank lenders can pose risks to financial stability, as they have in some countries internationally.
These risks arise when non-banks exacerbate credit and asset price cycles, prompt banks to weaken their lending standards or have financial links with the banking sector that see credit losses at non-banks transmitted to banks.
This box assesses these risks today, in light of the recent pick-up in growth of non-bank property lending.
Non-bank residential mortgage lending is estimated to have grown by roughly 15% per annum over recent years, well above growth in lending by banks.
This has seen their market share of outstanding lending continue to trend up.
While these estimates are based on incomplete data that may be revised over the coming year, they are broadly consistent with the information available on non-banks’ liabilities.
Almost all non-bank mortgage lending is funded by issuing residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and non-bank issuance of these securities has trebled over the past three years.
The flow of non-bank RMBS issuance in 2018 was close to the pre-crisis peak.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Non%20bank%20credit%201.JPG" alt="">
A factor that had supported non-banks’ increased market share has been banks’ repricing of certain types of housing loans.
Specifically, banks have increased the interest rates they charge on investor and interest-only (IO) loans, which are now on average around 50 basis points higher than interest rates on owner occupier principal and interest loans.
Banks increased interest rates on these products as a way of meeting the investor and IO lending benchmarks introduced by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) in 2014 and 2017.
Non-bank lenders, which were not required to meet APRA’s benchmarks, often do not apply this differential to investor and interest only loans.
These benchmarks have both been removed for most lenders. But other prudential standards are changing, as have perceptions of risk, so, to date, banks’ interest rate differentials based on type of loan remain.
Data from the RBA’s Securitisation Data set show that non-banks generally charge higher interest rates than banks for owner-occupier principal and interest loans; however, the interest rates they charge on other loans are typically much closer to those charged by banks (Graph D2).
As a result, investor loans have made up a growing proportion of nonbank lending, while their proportion of IO loans has fallen by much less than banks (Graph D3).
In contrast, banks have retreated from both these market segments.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Non%20bank%20credit%202.JPG" alt="">
In addition, a perception that finance is more difficult to obtain from the major banks has seen even some higher quality borrowers shifting to non-bank lenders.
The RBA’s liaison with nonbank lenders indicates that borrowers have been attracted by their faster approval times and the greater likelihood of approval compared with the major banks. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Non%20bank%20credit%203.JPG" alt="">
… but remains small and financial stability risks are limited at this point
Non-bank mortgage lenders account for less than 5% of outstanding housing credit and so are not a substantial financial stability risk (Graph D1).
In particular, their small share reduces the risk that non-bank lenders will exacerbate the credit cycle. More generally, growth in non-bank lending has accelerated as housing markets and credit growth have both been weakening overall.
There is also no evidence of banks loosening lending standards to compete.
Banks have instead tightened lending standards since 2015, although there continues to be strong competition for the highest quality borrowers.
Non-bank lenders have also tightened their lending standards over recent years, even while writing a larger share of higher risk investor loans than previously.
This is because they are still subject to responsible lending laws, for which compliance expectations have increased over recent years, and because long-term investors often expect non-bank RMBS to broadly conform with APRA standards.
Consistent with this, arrears rates for non-bank lenders are slightly lower than for banks and have not increased materially to date.
Whether this would remain true if the unemployment rate was to rise remains to be seen.
The potential for contagion from non-banks to banks also remains small because interconnections between them are limited.
Banks have some exposure to non-bank mortgage lending through short-term ‘warehouse’ funding facilities, but these are small compared with banks’ own mortgage lending and their capital.
Banks’ willingness to increase these exposures significantly is limited by APRA monitoring the growth of these facilities, a liquidity requirement to match the undrawn exposures with highquality liquid assets, and the capital required to be held against such exposures.
The main constraints to a more rapid expansion of non-bank mortgage lending stem from their funding. RMBS pricing is well above the cost of bank funding (deposits or senior unsecured bank debt) and remains significantly higher than pre-crisis levels.
The cost of funding from RMBS markets has also risen significantly since early 2018, reflecting both a rise in spreads on RMBS and the increase in the bank bill swap rate, which forms the base for RMBS pricing.
This means that non-bank lenders will struggle to compete with banks for the highest quality owner-occupier principal and interest mortgages, unless they are able to secure alternative long-term funding.
In addition, it does not currently appear feasible to significantly increase the capacity of RMBS markets.
This is because the investor base for such instruments is relatively narrow and securing new investors has been a prolonged and challenging task.
Non-bank lending to property developers is also growing fast, and poses more risk
The pick-up in non-bank lending to property developers has occurred as banks pulled back from this market due to concerns about increased risks.
Non-bank lending for property development has come from a range of sources, but the most prominent providers have been managed funds that specialise in financing property development.
This lending is mostly funded by equity investments from wealthy individuals and institutional investors, including foreign funds.
This is an area where data are very limited; however, liaison contacts report that non-bank financing of property development is widely available and still growing strongly, especially in Melbourne.
Non-bank lenders generally require lower levels of pre-sales than banks and allow greater leverage for borrowers, but also charge much higher interest rates.
Presales became harder to achieve as the property market cooled, and this contributed to the demand for non-bank financing from developers.
If more marginal developments proceed, because developers are able to obtain funding from non-bank lenders, the boost to supply would place further downward pressure on property prices.
This could have flow-on implications for banks’ property portfolios. In particular, the performance of banks’ exposures to property developers would deteriorate if apartment sales and prices experience further significant declines and settlement failures rise.
However, much of the lending by non-banks is expensive mezzanine debt (debt which is ranked below senior debt in the capital structure).
This debt is relatively expensive and so reduces the likelihood that low-return projects will proceed, minimising the financial stability risk.
Further, this mezzanine lending is subject to some external oversight because when a bank provides the senior debt it has visibility of the mezzanine debt and the risks this may pose to the developer.
This oversight may diminish as non-bank involvement in senior debt is becoming more common.
The financial stability risks from non-bank property lending are judged to be limited at this point, although risks associated with property development bear watching.
Incomplete data on non-bank lending activity currently make it challenging to assess these risks.
However, legislation passed in March 2018 expanded APRA’s data collection powers to encompass a wider range of non-bank entities.
Since then, a working group, consisting of APRA, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the RBA, has been working to improve the coverage of non-bank data.
This should help APRA and the RBA in their ongoing monitoring of financial stability risks arising from non-bank lending.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's Financial Stability Review provides the Bank's assessment of the current condition of the financial system and potential risks to financial stability. It contains a number of boxes on topics of special interest, along with occasional articles. The Review is issued half-yearly. 
Download the complete <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2019/apr/pdf/financial-stability-review-2019-04.pdf" target="_blank" title="Link, opening in a new window, to PDF file.">Review here</a>.<abbr title="Megabytes"> </abbr>
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No evidence of banks loosening lending standards to compete: RBA

How the RBA looks at property, debt and financial stability: RBA's Michele Bullock

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank to cut the cash rate by 25bps in both August and November this year.
We have revised down our GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 from 2.6% to 2.2%. With the slower growth profile we now expect to see the unemployment rate lift to 5.5% by late 2019. That makes a strong case for official rate cuts to cushion the downturn and, in turn, meet the RBA’s medium term objectives.
The Reserve Bank recently revised down its growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 from 3.25% and 3.0% to 3.0% and 2.75% respectively. It also cut its estimate for 2018 from 3.5% to 2.75%.
Momentum in 2018 slowed dramatically through the year. The annualised growth rate in the first half was 4% whereas in the second half we estimate that the pace slowed to 1.5%.
Moving from a 1.5% pace to a 3% pace in 2019 seems to be a very large stretch.
Westpac’s growth forecast in 2019 and 2020 has been a much weaker 2.6% in each year but even that number now appears too high.
Our new forecast for GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 is 2.2%.
In particular, we have been expecting only a modest impact on consumer spending from the likely negative wealth effect associated with falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne.
Our growth forecasts have assumed a lift in the savings rate across 2019 from 2.4% to 2.9%. That would be consistent with consumption growth of 2.4%. Note that we expect momentum in consumption growth in the second half of 2018 to be closer to 1.5%.
A more reasonable assessment of the lift in the savings rate in 2019 is from 2.4% to 3.5% with a lift towards 5.0% expected in 2020. Those savings rates imply consumer spending growth around 2%.
That lift assumes that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne will continue to fall through 2019. Our estimates of the need to restore affordability and the impact of tighter lending standards on prices point to falls of around 5%-10% in Sydney and Melbourne over the course of 2019 complemented by softness in other markets.
Absent any policy response from the RBA we expect that further falls will be necessary in 2020 before stability in these markets will be achieved.
These headwinds for the housing market and activity are also apparent in developments around credit. In the second half of 2018 new lending for housing fell by 14.9% with both investors (-15.5%) and owner occupiers (-14.7%) being affected. This is a sharper correction than
we had anticipated. These falls are a combination of both demand (concerns around falling prices and stretched affordability) and supply (new regulations and caution from some lenders in a falling market).
We expect these falls, albeit at a much slower pace, to continue through 2019 representing a negative feedback loop to prices.
That negative wealth effect is therefore likely to persist through 2020 with a further extension of the soft profile for consumer spending.
Other important dynamics will be around the sharp downturn in residential housing construction. We have revised down our forecast for residential housing construction in 2019 to –10% from –7% and –5% in 2020 from –3%. We also envisage a weaker profile for business equipment investment as businesses adjust their plans to a softening growth environment.
Overall we have revised down our GDP growth rates in 2019 and 2020 from 2.6% in both years to 2.2% respectively.
Consumer spending; residential housing construction and equipment investment are all key to the outlook for jobs growth.
With reasonable estimates for the participation rate our weaker jobs growth profile has the unemployment rate lifting to 5.5% in the second half of 2019 and further by end 2020.
Our process for forecasting monetary policy has always been to assume that the economy will evolve as we expect and then to anticipate the policy response once the authorities react to the new reality.
The decision by the Reserve Bank Board to accept the possibility that interest rates could fall further, despite the current record low levels, is profoundly important.
We can now be confident that if our growth profile does evolve the Reserve Bank will be prepared to act. Prior to this more balanced approach to rates it was reasonable to assume that it was most reluctant to lower rates. The view seemed to be that the adjustment in the housing market was a necessary development with limited spill over effects on the rest of the economy.
Lowering rates, as we last saw in 2016, would only disrupt that adjustment while the rest of the economy was not in need of further stimulus.
The approach now seems to be that the spill over effects to the rest of the economy are real and the “adjustment” process may be more substantial than earlier anticipated. Certainly the collapse in new lending and sharp falls in house prices would be attracting considerable attention.
Note that the current view of the Reserve Bank is GDP growth of 3% in 2019; and 2.75% in 2020. That profile is, in their view, consistent with a gradual fall in the unemployment rate from 5.0% to 4.75% by end 2020.
The rise in the unemployment rate which we envisage through 2019 will not be severe since unit labour costs are contained and labour enjoys a relative cost advantage over capital. However it will be contrary to the Reserve Bank’s expectations and prompt a significant revision to the 4.75% forecast for 2020.
When might this decision be taken?
The forces around a slowing economy, falling house prices, and weak consumer spending are already apparent. However the current forecasts do not indicate that the Bank expects these conditions to persist.
Recognition of this persistence is likely to take some time, but not too much time. Our preferred estimate would be the August Board meeting. A full explanation of the reasons behind the decision can be set out in the August Statement on Monetary Policy.
That timing will also allow two more inflation prints to confirm that the further widening of the output gap, as growth remains stuck well below trend, is constraining inflation with little likelihood of achieving the current forecast of 2.25% inflation in 2020.
A second cut at the November Board meeting is likely to follow.
Unlike the response of the markets in 2016 to two rate cuts we do not expect that these two cuts will immediately stabilise housing markets. However there will be sufficient progress for the Reserve Bank to resume its cautious stance.
Adjustments will also be accommodated by the Australian dollar, possibly in lieu of even lower rates.
Partially offsetting our weaker profile for the AUD will be more “patience” on the part of the Federal Reserve with the federal funds rate. Following my trip to the US over the last few weeks where I met with a number of officials and market participants it is clear that even if the Federal Reserve decides that higher rates will be necessary it will take considerable time to make the case.
Accordingly we have eliminated our forecast for hikes in the federal funds rate in June and September leaving one more hike in December to recognise the need to finally settle on the neutral rate setting.
The net impact of these forecast changes is for a further 25bp deterioration in the overnight cash rate differential. That puts downside risks to our current target of USD 0.68 for the AUD in the second half of 2019 particularly if the expected cuts from the Reserve Bank are ineffective in settling markets.
The Risks to This Rate Outlook
Housing markets may stabilise more quickly than we anticipate and the extended negative wealth effect may not materialise.
The labour market may hold up more strongly than we expect. (Note the January Employment Report showing 39,000 new jobs). Certainly evidence from other countries points to unusually strong labour markets despite other less constructive developments in these countries. A relative improvement in the cost of labour may hold up labour markets despite soft demand conditions. Unit labour costs in Australia have been flat for many years.
We may be overestimating the appetite of the RBA to respond to the environment we are describing.
Wages growth may lift more quickly than we expect, boosting household incomes and supporting spending despite a negative wealth effect. That lift may be supplemented by unexpected increases in the terms of trade as China boosts its own growth through housing and infrastructure. On the other hand while this is a perfectly reasonable scenario, there is still likely to be little flow through from higher commodity prices to household incomes as mining companies remain cautious. Mining wages continue to languish highlighting the limited effect a strong terms of trade has on the broader economy.
There is mixed evidence around wealth effects in other countries although the scale of the adjustment in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne is too large to downplay.
Conclusion
Since the last rate cut in August 2016 Westpac has consistently held the line that the RBA cash rate would remain on hold for the foreseeable future (a standard two to three year window). That has been despite markets, the RBA and most economists expecting higher rates.
To an extent this view was influenced by the perception that the Bank welcomed the adjustment in the housing markets and saw insignificant spill over effects to the rest of the economy.
The recent change of rhetoric from the Bank on that issue is important.
Our revised growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts now make a convincing case for lower rates.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Westpac now expects the RBA to cut the cash rate twice: Bill Evans

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The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting for February have largely confirmed the themes which were set out in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
Key to these themes is “the probabilities around these scenarios were now more evenly balanced than they had been over the preceding year when an eventual increase in the cash rate had appeared more likely”. Of course, the two scenarios relate to an eventual increase and an eventual decrease in the cash rate.
The policy outlook is firmly linked to progress in reducing the unemployment rate and moving the inflation rate back into the 2-3% policy band.
The risks around the outlook centre on the household sector and dwelling investment. The Bank remains generally comfortable with the outlook for business investment; government spending and external conditions.
Clearly, developments in the housing market, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, are attracting considerably more attention than we had seen in the minutes of meetings held in 2018. In particular, the Bank’s current position that the effect of recent price falls on overall economic activity was expected to be relatively small is noted.
However, in a very significant warning around the policy outlook, the minutes state “if prices were to fall much further, consumption could be weaker than forecast, which would result in lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and lower inflation than forecast”. This statement directly links developments in house prices to the Bank’s key policy forecasts.
The causal mechanism would be around a larger wealth effect than currently expected impacting consumer spending, and a sharper downturn in residential building activity than has been recognised, even in the Bank’s new much more subdued forecasts relative to the November Statement on Monetary Policy.
Note that for the record, the RBA’s GDP growth is forecast at 3% in 2019 and 2.75% in 2020. These forecasts are down from 3.25% in 2019, and 3% in 2020. The downward revisions are largely attributed to softer consumption growth and a sharper downturn in dwelling investment.
Westpac has long argued that the RBA’s previous growth forecasts were too high, and indeed, our current forecasts for 2019 and 2020 of 2.6% are still below the RBA’s numbers.
The RBA’s handle on the outlook for housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne appears tenuous. The minutes note that the recent falls “were relatively large by historical standards, and that it was unusual for housing prices to fall significantly in an environment of low mortgage interest rates and a declining unemployment rate”.
Note that in previous periods of falling house prices, large interest rate cuts have followed, and were successful in stabilising the markets.
The current period of low mortgage rates means that the usual policy response to stabilise markets with large rate cuts will not be possible, and it is therefore not unreasonable to expect that further falls in house prices may occur.
Based on the comments in these minutes, such an outcome is likely to lead to further downward revisions in the RBA’s forecasts.
Conclusion
The minutes note that financial market pricing implied that the Australian cash rate was expected to remain unchanged for a considerable period with some expectation of a decrease by late 2019.
Over most of last year when markets; the RBA, and most economists were forecasting higher rates, Westpac’s view was consistently that rates would remain on hold in 2019 and 2020. That was largely because our growth, inflation and employment forecasts did not justify higher rates.
Our current forecasts remain lower than those of the RBA and we therefore expect that, over time, the RBA will further revise down their forecasts.
However  we do not think that those downward revisions will be sufficient to trigger a rate cut. As usual, our forecasts will continue to be reviewed.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA emphasises the importance of house prices: Bill Evans

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The RBA has acknowledged the decline in housing turnover over the past year had "weighed on demand" for items such as household appliances and furnishings that are more likely to be purchased when moving into a new home.
"More generally, the decline in household wealth associated with falling housing prices has likely put some downward pressure on consumption growth," the February RBA statement of monetary policy noted.
"However, these recent falls have followed several years of very strong growth in prices," the RBA suggested.
"If households take a longer- term perspective of their wealth, they may look through the recent declines; even if they do react, it is unclear how quickly this might occur," the central bank advised.
The bank also noted the high level of household debt also remains a key consideration for household consumption. 
"In general, more indebted households are likely to be more sensitive to changes in their expected income growth and household wealth; consumption growth may be weaker for a time if households become concerned about their debt levels and choose to pay down debt more quickly. 
"It is also possible that households that are highly indebted or credit-constrained will be more sensitive to falling housing prices than to rising prices.
"Weaker housing construction and prices could have pervasive economic effects, it said.
The statement n monetary policy also noted there are a number of channels other than consumption through which housing market conditions can affect economic activity. 
"These channels have been incorporated into the central forecasts, but the effects are uncertain, particularly when there is uncertainty about the outlook for housing prices.
"The decline in housing prices will have a direct effect on dwelling investment but the timing and magnitude of the effect is uncertain. 
"The pipeline of work to be done is large and is expected to support dwelling investment for some time even though residential building approvals have already declined considerably.
The extent of the support from the pipeline could be more protracted than currently expected.
"But there is a risk that dwelling investment declines sooner and by more than currently forecast.
"This would have flow-on effects to the outlook for employment and household income.
"Very weak conditions in the earlier stages of residential development identified in business liaison point to further downside risk to dwelling investment in 2020 and beyond.
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There are also a number of indirect channels through which a decline in housing prices could affect the economy. 
"Lower housing prices could limit how much small businesses can borrow when using housing as collateral."
The report noted the decline in housing market turnover associated with the decline in housing prices has implications for business and household services, such as real estate and legal services.
"Changes in housing prices and turnover can also affect public demand through their effect on state government stamp duty revenue."
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Uncertainty on house prices set to impact on demand for appliances and furnishings: RBA 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This month’s RBA Board meeting saw interest rates left on hold for a record 27th meeting in a row.
No surprises there.
Since its December meeting the RBA has become less upbeat - acknowledging that downside risks have increased globally, revising down its Australian growth forecasts from “around 3.5%” to “around 3% for this year and a little less in 2020”, acknowledging the threat to consumer spending from falling house prices, revising down its inflation forecasts yet again to 2% this year (from 2.25%) and sounding a bit more concerned about the downturn in house prices.
However, despite its growth and inflation downgrades and increased downside risks it retains the view that “further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected” implying that it still believes that the next move in rates will be up rather than down. 
This probably explains why the $A bounced from around $US0.72 around the time of the rates announcement to around $US0.726 an hour or so later.
Tomorrow’s address by Governor Lowe and Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy may provide greater clarity as to whether it retains its “next move is more likely to be up” bias on interest rates.
Nevertheless, our view is that RBA is underestimating the impact of the housing downturn on the economy – both directly via reduced housing construction and also indirectly via reduced consumer spending – and as a consequence we see weaker growth and lower inflation than the RBA is forecasting.
Consistent with this we have seen a string of soft economic data releases this year including for business conditions, business conditions PMIs, consumer confidence, retail sales, housing approvals and housing starts, house prices and job ads.
As a result our view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by year end.
DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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The RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by year end: Shane Oliver

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Chris Joye's AFR column says the biggest winners from the royal commission are demonstrably the big banks while the largest losers are Australia’s mortgage brokers.
"Indeed, the top end of town have done an amazing job convincing everyone that brokers should be made the “fall guys” for their own deeds, surreptitiously fattening their profits, despite no evidence of pervasive misconduct," Joye noted.
Joye noted the single biggest cost a lender incurs when selling a home loan is the 0.6 per cent upfront commission and 0.2 per cent annual trailing commission that they pay to a mortgage broker.
Mortgage brokers currently settle around 59 per cent of all mortgages in Australia.
"If the royal commission has its way and/or Labor comes to power, these commissions will disappear completely, destroying the existing business models of the 20,000 mortgage brokers (and their employees) that rely on this revenue.
"This is horrific news for aggregator businesses that have built up large networks of brokers licenced by them in exchange for a share of the revenue they generate."
The only hope the latter have is to quickly shift into lending and securitising themselves, he says, adding the ban on broker commissions will radically reduce bank and non-bank mortgage distribution costs, which is "ironically going to be a huge profitability fillip for funders."
According to CBA evidence cited by the commission, a bank typically has to pay a mortgage broker $6,600 in fees to sell a loan via this channel, which accounts for almost 60 per cent of all residential mortgages written in Australia.
Under the commission’s proposal, these costs will disappear and be shunted on to consumers, whom CBA says should be prepared to pay about $2,310 for the service.
Brokers are also set to be regulated for the first time under the much stricter future of financial advice (FoFA) laws that apply to planners.
Mortgage brokers will be subjected to a "best interests" duty.
The government has said it will move to ban trailing commissions from July 2020, after the royal commission final report declared the chief value of trail commissions to the recipient, "to put it bluntly, is that they are money for nothing".
The government said it would not immediately adopt Commissioner Kenneth Hayne's call for upfront commissions to also be banned and be replaced by a customer-paid fee, which Labor indicated it would support.
 
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