A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

Sherpa Group has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at Flourish Soleira in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with Flourish Amargo, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Joel Robinson

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The October Labour Force Survey surprised with a –19.0k decline in employment – the market median was for 16k while the lowest forecast in the range was +7k.
It was a surprisingly soft update all the more so for while the participation rate eased back to 66.0% from 66.1%, as you would expect with a soft print on employment, the unemployment still bumped up to 5.3% (5.32% at two decimal places) from 5.2%. Westpac had been looking for a rise in unemployment as we do expect participation to remain relatively robust in the face of softer employment growth.
This month also reinforced the trend that while male participation has lifted off its cyclical low it is the trend rise in female participation that driven force in the outsized gains in the labour force.  
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/OctNov2019/LFHighlighs.JPG" alt="">
The average monthly employment gain so far in 2019 dropped from 25k in September to 20k in October with the annual pace easing back from 2.5% in September to 2.0% in October. This also saw the employment pulse slow with the six month annualise pace easing to 1.6%yr from a very robust 2.6%yr reported as recently as August. Currently, with participation remaining robust growth in the labour force was still a fast 1.9% six months annualised in October.
By contrast the working age population is currently growing at a 1.6% six month annualised pace so you can see how it is rising participation, more so than population, that his holding up unemployment. As such, with the leading indicators pointing to softer employment growth we remain comfortable with our expectation that a resilient participation rate will see the unemployment rate continue its gradual trend higher into 2020. Our current forecasts is for the unemployment rate to drift higher to around 5.4% by end 2019 or early 2020 then rise to 5.6% by mid-2020.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/OctNov2019/LFsixmont.JPG" alt="">
We should also note the jump up in underemployment rate to 8.5% (8.52% at two decimal places) to from 8.3%. It was 8.54% back in August reinforcing a trend drift higher in underemployment. This month there was a contraction in both full-time and part-time employment (–10.3k full-time and –8.7k respectively) driving a 0.2% decline in hours worked.
This highlights that it is a fundamental weakness in the report that is driving underemployment higher rather than some statistical shift. This trend drift higher in underemployment, and the slower pace of gain in hours worked compared to total employment (1.4%yr vs. 2.0%yr), reinforces the observation of the broader slack in the labour market slack beyond the 5.3% unemployment rate.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/OctNov2019/LFUnder.JPG" alt="">
The state data is also reveals that the two largest states, NSW and Victoria, are starting to slow; NSW more so than Victoria. Total employment fell –10.3k in NSW with the unemployment rate picking up to 4.8% from 4.5%. In the year, employment growth in NSW has fallen from 3.8%yr in July to 1.5% in October.
Victoria has been a bit more robust than NSW with employment lifting 2.9k there with a smaller rise in unemployment to 4.8% (now on par with NSW which has risen to meet Victoria) from 4.7%. Annual employment in Victoria is still running at a very solid 3.2%yr pace but this is a moderation from the 3.7%yr pace in June. Of the mining states, Qld reported a fall in employment of –14k while employment lifted 6.3k in WA. Unemployment was steady in both states at 6.5% in Qld, 5.7% in WA.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/OctNov2019/LFunempl.JPG" alt="">
While today’s update was weaker than we were anticipating, it was not enough to change our view that the labour market is softening gradually which will drive a modest gradual rise in unemployment and underemployment. The Australian economy is a long way away from the RBA’s full employment aim of 4.5% and if the Bank wants to use monetary policy to drive the economy in that direction, it has a lot more work to do. However, the gradual pace of the deterioration will allow the RBA time to monitor the economy before having to act again.
In our view, while rate cuts along with the Government’s tax offset payments should help to support demand, we think it will be insufficient to get economic growth moving back to trend or above in 2020. As we see employment growth continuing to moderate in early 2020, and expect that the resulting decline in participation will provide only a partial offset, we hold to our view that unemployment is likely to hit 5.6% my mid-2020.
JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Rising unemployment is working against RBA's objectives: Justin Smirk

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank has released its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP). The two key areas of most interest in the Statement are around further policy insights and the RBA’s growth, unemployment and inflation outlook.
The discussion on policy was particularly interesting. The Overview for the Statement, which we expect largely reflects the Governor’s own views, provides the most open analysis of policy options that we have seen. In outlining the policy decision in October, the Overview noted “the Board was mindful that rates were already very low and that each further cut brings closer the point at which other policy options come into play”. This represents a more open approach to the discussion around unconventional policies. To date, that discussion has been characterised by comments such as “unlikely”, whereas this wording indicates almost an automatic move from cash rate policy to other policy options. To be sure, there is no firm commitment to move in that direction but the wording indicates that such a transition to other options may be considered to be a normal approach to policy.
Other issues around a very low cash rate, including that it may “unintentionally convey an overly negative view of the economic outlook” and “the usual channels of policy transmission might be less effective”, also signal that the cash rate cut cycle is nearing an end. That said, lower rates are seen as having some impact. Indeed, the usual channels of lower exchange rate and boosting household disposable income are pointed out. However, a new channel, “higher asset prices”, has been added to the list. Arguably, given that Sydney and Melbourne house prices bottomed out in May, the June and July rate cuts played a significant role in turning those markets. It is of some interest that the SMP highlights this channel as a constructive aspect of interest rate policy.
Commentary on the current policy position signals that rates are almost certain to remain on hold at the December Board meeting. Since the decision in November was part of a plan to allow time to assess the effects of the recent easing of monetary policy as well as global developments, no doubt the RBA’s observation that the low point in global pessimism may have passed is an important aspect of the current policy standing.
On balance, Westpac believes that its assessment that with the unemployment rate still well above the RBA’s target (4.5%) and the RBA seeing that there is a balance between the benefits and costs of lower rates, our view that 0.5% is the effective lower bound and that some transition to unconventional policies is likely is supported by this SMP.
The second point of interest in the SMP is around the RBA’s forecasts. As we anticipated in our preview to this SMP, the key growth forecasts for 2020 of 2.8% which was adopted in August, has been retained in this SMP. That is much higher than Westpac’s forecast of 2.4%. Surprisingly, the forecast in November includes a more optimistic outlook for dwelling construction for 2020 (-2.6%, upgraded from -3.3%) and business investment (+6.2% upgraded from +5.8%). Partially offsetting that more optimistic view is the lowering in growth of public demand from +3.2% to +2.9%. These forecasts for 2020 contrasts with Westpac’s forecast of 2.4% for GDP growth, -6% for dwelling investment, and +2.8% for business investment. Overall, Westpac’s forecast for growth in GNE of 2.3% in 2020 compares to 2.8% from the RBA. Looking further out, the RBA has retained its optimistic growth forecast for 2021 of 3.1% compared to our forecast of 2.7% with a substantial part of the difference being explained by the RBA seeing a much more rapid recovery in the dwelling investment cycle.
This substantial difference between Westpac and the RBA on the construction cycle partly hinges around the link between established house prices and construction activity. Furthermore, even the RBA points out that the current expected pipeline of construction may be overstating actual activity.
There have been some modest downward revisions to the inflation and wages outlook. Even though the unemployment rate profile of 5.2% in December 2020 and 4.9% by December 2021 is unchanged from August, wages growth for December 2021 has been cut from 2.4% to 2.3% (“wages growth is no longer expected to pick up”) and growth in the trimmed mean inflation measure has been cut from 2.1% to 1.9%. It must be particularly uncomfortable for the RBA to be forecasting that underlying and headline inflation will remain below the bottom of the 2-3% target band right out into 2021.
Readers will be aware that on November 6, Westpac advocated the bringing forward of the legislated personal income tax cuts, which had been timed for June 2022, to June 2020 and June 2021 (evenly distributed). If the Federal Government were to take up that policy option, then Westpac’s forecasts for consumer spending, housing activity and business investment will be lifted.
Conclusion
The November SMP provides the clearest insight yet into the RBA’s thinking about policy in 2020. The acceptance that, after rates reach a certain threshold, other policy options “might come into play” is quite significant. The recognition that asset prices are an additional channel of monetary policy and are assessed to be a positive channel is also important.
The overview of the RBA’s growth outlook, while largely unchanged from August, still appears to be overly optimistic, particularly around the residential construction cycle and business investment. On the other hand, the downbeat view on wages, inflation and the unemployment rate make it clear that the RBA does not believe that its job is done and so we can expect further policy action from the RBA in 2020. Westpac continues to expect the RBA to cut to 0.50% in February 2020 and to move to unconventional policies at an appropriate time.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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RBA openly discusses the risks from very low rates: Bill Evans

13 economists backed the RBA governor over the treasurer to fix things: Peter Martin

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The dour former RBA Governor Glenn Stevens and wife Susan have splashed out $3.6 million on their next home, upgrading to a waterfront but staying in the Shire.
They have secured a new home on the Georges River, complete with its own boatshed at Sylvania.
His trade up comes as his RBA successor, Dr Phillip Lowe has open the door for even cheaper home loans, with possibly a third rate cut of the year as soon as next Tuesday's October meeting which could bring the official cash rate down to another historic low at 0.75 per cent.
Last month his former RBA colleague Guy Debelle indicated "there is evidence that the decline in housing prices has reached its end."
With views towards Captain Cook Bridge, the new full brick, three level duplex home designed by architect Justin Quinlan comes with four bedrooms, two with ensuites, and a master with a dressing room.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/Glenn%20Stevens%20Shire%201.jpg" alt="">
The open plan living areas offer views across Botany Bay. There's a gym, media room and home office for the former central banker who now sits on the board of Macquarie Group.
There are two entertaining terraces, one with a built in barbecue kitchen opens to the level lawn where there's a swimming pool.
The marketing of the home ceased last December two months after the duplex strata plan was registered. The neighbouring property was sold in July at an undisclosed price.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/Glenn%20Stevens%20Shire%202.jpg" alt="">
Stevens will have likely secured an ANZ home loan interest rate with a three at the front on his new home.
The Stevens family recently offloaded their nearby longtime Sylvania Waters home after having a guide of $1.7 million to $1.8 million.
Stevens, who was at the central bank between 1980 and 2016, joins the early spring sellers who took an undisclosed pre-auction offers. 
They had paid $312,500 for the non-waterfront property in 1992.
In 2007, he told a House of Representatives hearing, "My house is not a fibro house, but it is a piece of spec rubbish built in the 1970s, and in many respects it shows that”.
When he bought the official cash rate was 5.75 per cent.
Stevens was no stranger to rate movements during his decade at the top.
Rates started in his termsat six percent, and within two years rose to 7.25 percent, before being cut during the GFC to 3 percent in 2009.
They were at 1.5 percent on his 2016 departure.
Stevens indicated in 2015, two years before the boom turned into a two year downturn, that some of Sydney house prices were "crazy." 
He suggested last year that "a child born today will not be able to afford a house today without family assistance.”
 
 
 
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Former RBA Governor Glenn Stevens completes Shire upgrade

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The former RBA governor Glenn Stevens and wife Susan have joined the early bird spring property auction listees.
The downsizers are selling their five bedroom, two storey Sylvania Waters home after 27 years ownership.
The Sutherland Shire has been among Sydney's recent top regions securing an 75 per cent success rate during August.
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It was 56 percent last August.
Sydney saw an 81 percent preliminary clearance rate across its 444 weekend auctions, according to CoreLogic. Listing volume was down on one year ago, when 572 auctions returned a 52 percent final clearance.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/19/Glenn%20Stevens%202.jpg" alt="">
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The 61 year old Stevens, who was at the central bank between 1980 and 2016, and is now a Macquarie Group director, joins the sellers who have signed up for September auction hoping the price recovery is underway.
Last week the RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle indicated "there is evidence that the decline in housing prices has reached its end."
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Marketed as an "immaculate family home," its McGrath agent David Greig has the Stevens' home for September 7 auction with a $1.7 million to $1.8 million price guide. The couple paid $312,500 on a non-waterfront holding in 1992 for their home with their two children.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/19/Glenn%20Stevens%203.jpg" alt="">
Three years ago the four bedroom home next door sold for $1,625,000.
In 2007, he deprecatingly told a House of Representatives hearing, "My house is not a fibro house, but it is a piece of spec rubbish built in the 1970s, and in many respects it shows that”.
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Stevens had the cash rate at 1.5 percent on his 2016 departure.
The current governor Dr Philip Lowe has taken it to a historic low one percent, and signalled it could go to zero.
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-sylvania+waters-131730694" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-sylvania%2Bwaters-131730694&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1566189075224000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF5FyCHPNrbCCa7ceaTDiA071iSpw">T</a>his article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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Retired RBA governor Glenn Stevens lists in Sutherland Shire

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
A very quiet week for data saw the spotlight again fall on central banks, particularly the RBA and ECB.
This week, there were two speakers from the RBA: first Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent; then Governor Phillip Lowe. The Assistant Governor's speech was focused on the Committed Liquidity Facility, its role within the economy and recent changes the RBA has made. These remarks have no immediate significance for monetary policy and economic momentum. However, during Q&amp;A, Assistant Governor Kent noted that the RBA was unlikely to adopt unconventional monetary policy measures, while making clear the RBA had considered a number of policies implemented elsewhere from the perspective of what would be most effective in Australia.
Arguably the RBA believe they are unlikely to deliver unconventional easing because they regard the outlook as "reasonable", and also believe they still have scope to support the economy through conventional means. This was highlighted in the Governor's subsequent speech. Governor Lowe was constructive on the outlook, noting that the "foundations of the Australian economy remain strong" and that the "two recent reductions in the cash rate will support demand... [as will] recent tax cuts, higher commodity prices, [and] some stabilisation in the housing market. Further, "if demand growth is not sufficient, the Board is prepared to provide additional support by easing monetary policy further", while "other arms of public policy could also play a role".
Westpac continues to see greater risk to the outlook, believing that activity growth and inflation will disappoint the RBA's expectations. Recent data for the labour market and consumer sentiment have supported our economic view, so too the stickiness of the Australian dollar, which has failed to depreciate in response to the June/ July rate cuts.
As a result, as highlighted by Chief Economist Bill Evans, we believe the case for a third cash rate cut to 0.75% will now be made by October (following two more labour market prints and June quarter GDP), and more importantly that there will be a need for a fourth cut to 0.50% come February 2020. In recent days, markets have quickly gravitated towards our view, pricing roughly an extra 7bps in the IB curve, seeing a third cut in October fully priced and a 0.59% expected cash rate at February 2020 – indicating the likelihood of a fourth cut.
To ensure the effectiveness of the cut to 0.50%, we also see the possibility of the RBA adopting a package of other measures to aid pass-through. Chief Economist Bill Evans has outlined an example of this concept, using the experience of the Bank of England. However, we note that any unconventional easing undertaken by the RBA must suit Australian circumstances. It is important to note that we do not believe this possibility for unconventional easing is in conflict with the remarks of Assistant Governor Kent. This is because we see such a course of action only eventuating after a material economic disappointment, and only to guarantee the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy, i.e the rate cut to 0.5%, not to move market rates lower in their own right. It is also important to emphasise that the rate cut we envisage in February is not conditional on an associated package of other policies being adopted.
For their own reasons, Westpac New Zealand economics have also updated their policy view this week, now seeing a second rate cut from the RBNZ to 1.00%, most likely in November. In short, the New Zealand economy has disappointed of late, and there are concerns over business sentiment and its potential impact on investment and employment. This is in addition to global uncertainties and sector-specific weakness in forestry. Importantly, our New Zealand team continue to believe these cuts will prove effective and will see growth strengthen come 2020.
On the broader global backdrop, this week saw the IMF revise down their global growth view for 2019 and 2020 on weakness in emerging and developing markets. The scale of these revisions was immaterial, but they highlight that momentum continues to deteriorate and that risks remain skewed to the downside. The latest Markit PMI data for Europe and the US also confirmed a further loss of momentum in manufacturing. Euro Zone manufacturing momentum is the worst it has been in seven years, and for the US, nearly ten.
The July ECB meeting largely met expectations through indicating the deposit rate is very likely to be cut at their September 12 meeting and that other stimulus measures are on the table. While the July meeting does not involve updated projections, President Draghi noted the outlook is getting "worse and worse". The Governing Council note data continues "to point to somewhat slower growth in the second and third quarters of this year. This mainly reflects the ongoing weakness in international trade in an environment of prolonged global uncertainties, which are particularly affecting the euro area manufacturing sector."
The detail on other potential stimulus measures is not clear cut, but the Council are clearly making preparations in the context of responding to the medium term inflation outlook disappointing. We continue to believe that a cut will be delivered in September, but now expect a broader stimulus package will also soon be introduced. This is in response to the particularly bad run of data over recent weeks, in particular the ECB Bank Lending survey. The new package is likely to include a tiered deposit rate to mitigate the pressure on banks and see asset purchases of sovereign bonds restarted. Our expectation is for the ECB to introduce a €30bn per month program in December lasting for a year, at this stage.
Ahead next week, for Australia we receive the June quarter CPI report. And in the US, there is the all-important July FOMC meeting, which is expected to result in a 25bp rate cut.
ELLIOT CLARKE is a senior economist at Westpac.
SIMON MURRAY is an economist at Westpac 
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The RBA is unlikely to adopt unconventional monetary policy measures: CoreLogic's Elliot Clarke

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The minutes of the June RBA Board meeting show the decision to cut the cash rate by 25bp at that meeting was driven by a revised assessment of spare capacity in the labour market and that the Board expects to ease policy further.
We continue to expect a further 25bp rate cut in August and a final 25bp cut in November.
Note that much of the information from the minutes is not new. Key aspects have already been covered in a speech by the RBA Governor on the day of the decision and in other commentary from the Bank since then.
Assessments have also likely evolved since June 4, particularly following the March quarter national accounts released a day later.
As such, our main interest in reading the meeting minutes is around the commentary from members and the tone of the discussion – particularly the degree of urgency around policy easing.
The minutes are clear on the prospect of further cuts, noting in the concluding paragraph that “… it was more likely than not that a further easing in monetary policy would be appropriate in the period ahead”.
In the lexicon of RBA statements, “period ahead” signals that policy is ‘live’ in coming meetings but stops short of indicating an imminent move at the next meeting.
The case for easing in June rested firmly on a reassessment of the labour market.
Updates on wage costs, showing growth of 0.5%qtr, 2.3%yr to March, were seen as “further evidence of spare capacity”.
The latest data around jobs and unemployment is assessed as “mixed” – with an increase in unemployment and underemployment and a moderation in employment growth noted, albeit with the latter still running above growth in the labour force and participation rates reaching a record high.
The contrast with the “strong” description in the May minutes is striking.
However, the real change was around the assessment of the extent of spare capacity – i.e. the degree to which unemployment was above the ‘full employment’ levels associated with stable inflation.
As outlined by the Governor, the Bank now sees this as around 4.5% compared to the 4.75-5% cited previously – the shift reflecting the unfolding mix of wage and unemployment outcomes.
The current 5.2% unemployment rate is a sizeable 0.7ppts above this target level. While noting estimates are uncertain, Board members concurred with the change in assessment.
Other factors behind the decision to cut seem less urgent. The outlook for both the global economy and the Australian economy was assessed as “reasonable” albeit with the latter conditioned on market pricing for the cash rate that implied interest rates would be lower in the period ahead.
Around inflation, the persistence of low underlying inflation – below the 2-3% target range for three years and expected to remain low near term – looks to have been a secondary consideration behind the cut, giving scope for the move rather than driving the decision.
That said, there did seem to be some concern that this might start to undermine medium term inflation expectations.
The risks a rate cut would present around high household debt and housing markets were assessed as low.
Members judged it “was unlikely to encourage a material pick-up in borrowing by households that would add to medium term risks”.
Interestingly, members also noted that lower rates would “stimulate activity and thereby improve the resilience of the Australian economy to any future adverse shocks” – perhaps an indication that the Board is a little keener to get the economy moving.
Conclusion
Overall, the minutes confirm more easing is on the way. Board members appear very much aligned to the Governor’s views, particularly around the labour market.
That said, the ‘tone’ is not urgent in the sense that growth outlook still does not seem to be viewed as that challenging and low inflation is not a driving force behind the easing.
We continue to see the next 25bp rate cut coming in August and a final 25bp cut in November.
There are complications. After shifting its view on full employment and having identified more significant spare capacity in the labour market, the Board may see little point in delaying follow-on easing moves – the case having already been made.
However, we expect the next move to instead be framed by a downgrade to the Bank’s forecasts meaning it will be more inclined to move in August when the full set of revised forecasts are released in its Statement on Monetary Policy.
We expect this to include a downward revision to the Bank’s near term growth forecast from ‘around 2.75%’ to something more materially below trend. The disappointing March quarter national accounts release has already lowered the starting point.
Updates on the consumer are likely to show soft conditions extending into the June quarter. Meanwhile weak labour market updates are likely to take the unemployment further away from the Bank’s 4.5% target.
Given the need to adjust, it is much simpler communication-wise, to cut rates at the time the forecast is changed than to cut in July and announce the lower forecast a month later.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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RBA June minutes allay fear that low rate borrowing has medium term risks: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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GUEST OBSERVATION
If we can avoid a recession for another two years, then on July 1, 2021 Australia will have recorded a record 30 years of economic expansion. We will be entering our fourth decade recession-free.
That’s the expectation embedded in the Reserve Bank’s latest set of forecasts in its <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/" target="_blank">Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy</a>. But it will be a challenge.
A major downturn in housing markets, historically low interest rates and an international economy more complex and troublesome than we have seen for decades mean the new government will need to take bold and creative decisions in order for us to achieve this truly remarkable milestone.
Things would be okay globally…
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274096/original/file-20190513-183080-1p0rgsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274096/original/file-20190513-183080-1p0rgsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank Statement on Monetary Policy May 2019</a>
The bank has painted a benign picture of the global economic outlook for the next few years after recent data have allayed concerns about a US recession.
The Chinese authorities appear to have stabilised growth in the world’s second largest economy after fears of a steeper decline in activity emerged late last year. Although the Chinese economy faces many challenges, there doesn’t appear to be any signs of an imminent problem.
That should leave economic growth in Australia’s major trading partners at a respectable rate of 3.75% over the next few years, not too different to the global economy. While not exactly a boom, it should be enough to support the Australian economy through to 2021.
This is reflected in the bank’s expectations for the key sectors linking Australia to the world economy. Resource exports are expected to experience strong growth, as are education exports and tourism.
The bank is even expecting manufacturing exports to grow, due to healthy global economic growth and a low Australian dollar. The same can’t be said for rural exports, with drought conditions expected to hurt our international sales for some time.
…were it not for the threat of a trade war
This otherwise upbeat assessment of global economic prospects could come to naught if the renewed trade dispute between the US and China intensifies. The bank identifies this as a major risk to Australia’s economic outlook.
Even though Australia could benefit from the dispute via Chinese domestic economic stimulus in response to difficulties in moving exports, a continuation of rising protectionist measures would impact us directly and indirectly as global economic growth slowed.
Managing the China relationship in the midst of Trump’s trade war will be critical for the incoming government. A misstep could see China use non-tariff measures to slow Australia’s exports.
It would also make life difficult for Australian companies attempting to capitalise on the opportunities offered by China’s emerging middle class.
In Australia, households are battening down
The Reserve Bank expects employment to continue to grow by enough to keep the unemployment rate stable. However, there seems to be little prospect of a rapid pick up in either wages or inflation that will make a dent in Australia’s household debt burdens.
The bank has made it clear that the very low inflation environment will be with us for several years to come. It expects the inflation pulse of the economy, which appears to have slipped to around 1.5% in the past six months, to only slowly pick up, climbing towards 2% by 2020 and just above 2% (and back into the Reserve Bank’s target zone) in 2021.
That gradual increase is unlikely to be meaningfully outstripped by wages growth, implying either a very small lift in living standards or no increase in living standards. It will result in very low consumption growth.
The bank is forecasting historically weak consumption growth of about 2.5% for the next few years. It will put the high-employing retail sector under pressure.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274095/original/file-20190513-183077-5xz4du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274095/original/file-20190513-183077-5xz4du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts, May 2019</a>
Two more rate cuts…
The only good news for households (those with debt at least) is that there is interest rate relief in prospect. The bank uses market pricing for the interest rate assumptions in its forecasts. Markets are pricing a cash rate of 1% over the year ahead, down from the present record-low 1.5%. The bank suggests it will come in two cuts of 25 points.
Even with 50 points of cuts factored in, the bank believes it will only just meet its targets of falling unemployment and 2% inflation. It might have to cut further.
But the effectiveness of interest rate cuts as a way of bolstering the economy is in serious question.
The costs of sustained easy money are rising.
Not only is wealth inequality a potential problem, but as interest rates get lower the banks find cuts harder to pass cuts on.
…but they mightn’t be enough
A major issue for the new government will be to recognise the new-found importance of fiscal policy (spending and tax policy) to support economic growth. It will need to be used in an even handed way, without a hint of pork barrelling. Otherwise it will be wasted.
While lower interest rates will good news for the large proportion of Australians that have mortgages, they will not be great for savers. Whether it is someone saving for a home deposit or someone living off retirement savings, super low interest rates will not make life easier.
This challenging environment for Australian households will have implications beyond just the economy’s performance, making <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-populist-moment-has-arrived-111491" target="_blank">for tricky political waters</a>. Populist political propositions will have much more resonance in difficult times, particularly in regional and rural areas with high retiree populations and the exposure to drought.
The next Australian government should not be complacent.
It will need to adopt an explicit strategy needs to deal with the economic and political fallout from the adjustments within the household sector. it will need to address falling wealth and low real income growth through serious structural reforms aimed at driving up productivity and real wages.
In the short term the government is going to need to be ready to deploy its substantial resources to support households should conditions deteriorate. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-income-tax-questions-answered-in-three-easy-charts-labor-and-coalition-proposals-side-by-side-115450" target="_blank">low and middle income tax offset</a> are a good starting point.
Business is in good shape so far…
Although business confidence has dropped over the past nine months, the Reserve Bank expects businesses to continue to invest and hire new staff. It expects non-mining business investment to expand at a healthy rate. But this can’t be taken for granted given the precarious nature of consumer demand.
The next government will have to be acutely sensitive to the risk of undermining business confidence. A hiring strike by business would be dangerous for an economy tiptoeing along a knife edge.
We might be surprised by good news. In other advanced economies an unexpected bonus has been strong employment growth despite economic and political uncertainty and modest economic growth.
While this international experience shouldn’t give us confidence that stronger employment growth translate into stronger wage growth, it might at least help maintain consumer spending in the face of lower house prices.
…except for construction
The Reserve Bank is explicit in its expectation that housing construction will turn down over the next two years. The drop off in activity could be big and have a major negative impact on employment. Although there is currently a high level of activity in commercial construction, particularly infrastructure-related activity, it is unlikely to be big enough to offset the downturn in housing construction.
Governments across Australia have an opportunity to think about nation building. Funding costs are low, government finances are strong and the shrinking construction sector will free up labour and other resources for important projects.
Which means its time for nation building
The next term of government will see very little economic momentum originating from consumers. They are in balance sheet repair mode. That makes it the perfect time for the governments to lead the way and drive private sector economic activity through a whole range of long-term investments in Australia’s future.
Coordinating this with the states and identifying the right projects will be the most important challenge facing the new government.
Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-next-government-can-usher-in-our-fourth-decade-recession-free-but-it-will-be-dicey-116887" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The next government can usher in our fourth decade recession-free, but it will be dicey

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
This month’s RBA Board meeting saw interest rates remain on hold for the 30th meeting (or 33rd month) in a row.
While the RBA still sees the labour market as being strong it has further revised down its 2019 growth forecast to 2.75% (from 3% in February and from 3.25% in November) and its underlying inflation forecast to 1.75% for this year (from 2% in February and from 2.25% in November) and to 2% for next year (from 2.25% in February). This reflects weaker than expected data for growth and inflation in recent months.
Our expectation was that the RBA would cut at this meeting particularly given the weak March quarter inflation outcome. But given the timing of the election and the RBA’s focus on the jobs market it was a close call and in the event while the RBA has yet again lowered its growth and inflation forecasts it has opted to leave rates on hold for the time being.
Unfortunately we won’t really know whether the RBA has moved to an easing bias until the Minutes are released for this meeting in two weeks time because in recent times it has expressed its bias either in the minutes or in speeches. However, in a dovish twist it noted at the end of its post meeting statement that it recognises “that there was still spare capacity in the economy and that a further improvement in the labour market was likely to be needed for inflation to be consistent with the target.”
This continues the RBA’s focus on the labour market and implies that in the absence of a further improvement in the labour market inflation won’t head back to target. Which in turn would be consistent with rate cuts.
Our assessment is that unemployment will drift up from here – not dramatically but to around 5.5% by the end of the year – and we continue to see the RBA cutting the cash rate to 1% by year end. We have pencilled in a cut for June but concede that the RBA may wait a bit longer given that there is only one month’s worth of jobs data to be released between now and then. 
The problem for the RBA is that inflation has been undershooting its forecasts and the 2-3% inflation target for several years now. The longer this persists the more the RBA will lose credibility, seeing low inflation expectations become entrenched making it harder to get inflation back to target and leaving Australia vulnerable to deflation in the next economic downturn.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/7/RBA.png" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/7/RBA.png" alt="">
Source: RBA, Bloomberg, AMP Capital 
DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist for AMP Capital.
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RBA rate cuts are coming: Shane Oliver 

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Large housing price falls in parts of Australia mean some borrowers are facing negative equity – where the outstanding balance on the loan exceeds the value of the property it is secured against.
Negative equity creates vulnerabilities both for borrowers and lenders, the RBA recently noted in a research paper.
A borrower having difficulty making loan repayments who has negative equity cannot fully repay their debt by selling the property.
Negative equity also implies that banks are likely to bear losses in the event that a borrower defaults.
Evidence from Australia and abroad suggests that borrowers who experience an unexpected fall in income are more likely to default if their loan is in negative equity, the RBA financial stability review indicated.
"At present, the incidence of negative equity remains low," the report said.
"Given the large increases in housing prices that preceded recent falls and the decline in the share of mortgages issued with high loanto-valuation ratios (LVRs), housing prices would need to fall significantly further for negative equity to become widespread.
"However, even if this did occur, increased defaults would be unlikely if the unemployment rate remains low, particularly given the improvements in loan serviceability standards over recent years.
"Few loans are currently in negative equity despite sizeable housing price declines Estimating the share of borrowers with negative equity requires data on current loan balances and property values."
The RBA’s Securitisation Dataset contains the most extensive and timely data on loan balances and purchase prices.
These data can be combined with regional data on housing price movements to estimate the share of loans that are currently in negative equity.
This suggests that nationally, around 2.75% of securitised loans by value are in negative equity (just over 2% of borrowers).
The highest rates of negative equity are in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland, where there have been large price falls in areas with high exposure to mining activity.
Almost 60% of loans in with negative equity are in Western Australia or the Northern Territory. Rates of negative equity in other states remain very low (Graph B1).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Negative%20Equity%201.JPG" alt="">
Estimates of negative equity from the securitisation dataset may, however, be under or overstated, the RBA financial stability review acknowledges.
"They could be understated because securitised loans are skewed towards those with lower LVRs at origination.
"In contrast, the higher prevalence of newer loans in the dataset compared to the broader population of loans, and not being able to take into account capital improvements on values, will work in the other direction."
It noted some private surveys estimate closer to 10% of mortgage holders are in negative equity.
However, these surveys are likely to be an overestimate for a number of reasons; for instance, by not accounting for offset account balances. Information from bank liaison and estimates based on 2017 data from the Household Incomes and Labour Dynamics of Australia (HILDA) survey suggest rates of negative equity are broadly in line with those from the Securitisation Dataset.
The continuing low rates of negative equity outside the mining exposed regions reflect three main factors: the previous substantial increases in housing prices; the low share of housing loans written at high LVRs; and the fact that many households are ahead on their loans, having accumulated extra principal payments.
Housing prices in some areas of Sydney and Melbourne have fallen by upwards of 20% from their peak in mid to late 2017.
But the RBA review noted only a small share of owners purchased at peak prices, and many others experienced price rises before property prices began to fall.
Properties purchased in Sydney and Melbourne since prices peaked account for around 2% of the national dwelling stock.
Looking further back, properties purchased in these two cities since prices were last at current levels still only account for around 4½% of the dwelling stock.
Few recent borrowers had high starting LVRs.
Over the past five years, the share of loans issued by ADIs with LVRs above 90 has roughly halved.
Since 2017, it has averaged less than 7% (Graph B2).
Around 80% of ADI loans are issued with an LVR of 80 or less. Around 15% of owner-occupier borrowers and 20% of investors take out a loan with a starting LVR of exactly 80.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Negative%20Equity%202.JPG" alt="">
Given most borrowers do not have high starting LVRs, housing price falls need to be large for widespread negative equity.
The review noted only 15% of regions have experienced price declines of 20% or more from their peaks.
Around 90% of these regions are in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory.
"If a borrower has paid off some of their debt, then price declines will need to be larger still for them to be in negative equity.
"Most borrowers have principal and interest loans that require them to pay down their debt and many borrowers are ahead of their repayment schedule."
Around 70% of loans are estimated to be at least one month ahead of their repayment schedule, with around 30% ahead by two years or more.
When a borrower is behind on repayments and their loan is in negative equity, banks classify the loan as ‘impaired’.
Banks are required to raise provisions against potential losses from impaired loans through ‘bad and doubtful debt’ charges.
Currently the proportion of impaired housing loans is very low, at 0.2% of all residential mortgages, despite having increased of late (Graph B3).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Negative%20Equity%203.JPG" alt="">
Negative equity is concentrated in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory
Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory together account for around 90% of all mortgage debt in negative equity.
These states have regions that experienced large and persistent housing price falls over several years.
"This has often been coupled with low income growth and increases in unemployment, which have reduced the ability of borrowers to pay down their loans," the RBA financial stability review indicated.
"Loans currently in negative equity were, on average, taken out around five years ago and had higher average LVRs at origination, of around 85%.
"This made them particularly susceptible to subsequent falls in property values."
Investment loans are also disproportionately represented, despite typically having lower starting LVRs than owner-occupier loans.
Investors are more likely to take out interest-only loans in order to keep their loan balance high for tax purposes.
Around 10% of loans in negative equity have interest only terms expiring in 2019, which is double the share for loans in positive equity.
For these borrowers, the increase in repayments from moving to principal and interest may be difficult to manage, especially as loans in negative equity are already more likely to be in arrears.
Having more borrowers in this scenario is distressing for the borrowers themselves and for the communities they live in.
However, it is unlikely to represent a risk to broader financial stability given it remains largely restricted to mining-exposed regions, which represent a very small share of total mortgage debt.
Further significant housing price falls in Sydney and Melbourne would see negative equity increase, but widespread defaults are unlikely, the RBA financial stability review suggested.
Continued housing price falls would be expected to increase the incidence of negative equity, particularly if they affect borrowers with already high LVRs.
Around 11/4% of loans by number (and 13/4% of loans by value) have a current LVR between 95 and 100, making them likely to move into negative equity if there are further housing price falls (Graph B4).
However, compared to the international experience with negative equity during large property downturns, the incidence of negative equity in Australia is likely to remain low.
Negative equity peaked in the United States at over 25% of mortgaged properties in 2012 and in Ireland it exceeded 35%, as peak to trough price falls exceeded 30 and 50% respectively.
However, high origination LVRs were far more common in these countries than they have been in Australia.
Even if negative equity was to become more common in the larger housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne, impairment rates for banks are unlikely to increase significantly while unemployment and interest rates remain low.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Negative%20Equity%204.JPG" alt="">
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