Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Rba Rate Decision

<html><body>
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.25 per cent.
Growth in the global economy continued at a moderate pace in 2014. A similar performance is expected by most observers in 2015, with the US economy continuing to strengthen, even as China's growth slows a little from last year's outcome.
Commodity prices have declined over the past year, in some cases sharply. The price of oil in particular has fallen significantly. These trends appear to reflect a combination of lower growth in demand and, more importantly, significant increases in supply. The much lower levels of energy prices will act to strengthen global output and temporarily to lower CPI inflation rates.
Financial conditions are very accommodative globally, with long-term borrowing rates for several major sovereigns at all-time lows over recent months. Some risk spreads have widened a little but overall financing costs for creditworthy borrowers remain remarkably low.
In Australia the available information suggests that growth is continuing at a below-trend pace, with domestic demand growth overall quite weak. As a result, the unemployment rate has gradually moved higher over the past year. The economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. With growth in labour costs subdued, it appears likely that inflation will remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.
Credit is recording moderate growth overall, with stronger growth in lending to investors in housing assets. Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities over recent months. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market. In other asset markets, prices for equities and commercial property have risen, in part as a result of declining long-term interest rates.
The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar, though less so against a basket of currencies. It remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices. A lower exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy.
At today's meeting the Board judged that, having eased monetary policy at the previous meeting, it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being. Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target. The Board will further assess the case for such action at forthcoming meetings.
</body></html>

po-LsXgBTHBmX

Strong growth in property investor lending: RBA governor Glenn Stevens' March 2015 statement

<html><body>
Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens has acknowledged concerns that the Reserve Bank's influence on demand may be limited, given the official cash rate's record low level.
Speaking at the House of Representatives Economic Committee in Sydney, the Governor noted that the Reserve Bank (RBA) board is "very conscious of the possibility that monetary policy's power to summon up additional growth in demand could, at these levels of interest rates, be less than it was in the past".
"A decade ago, when there was, it seems, an underlying latent desire among households to borrow and spend, it was perhaps easier for a reduction in interest rates to spark additional demand in the economy," said Stevens.
"Today, such a channel may be less effective."
Stevens does, however, believe that cash rate adjustments still have some effect on growth.
"Nonetheless we do not think that monetary policy has reached the point where it has no ability at all to give additional support to demand. Our judgement is that it still has some ability to assist the transition the economy is making, and we regarded it as appropriate to provide that support."
In his speech on Australia's economic outlook, he noted that strong housing price growth was a factor of consideration in the RBA's decision to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.
"Another factor in our consideration was dwelling prices, which have continued to increase. Price rises in Sydney are very strong, and they are pretty solid in Melbourne," he said.
However, Stevens noted that the performance of property markets Australia wide are "much more mixed".
"Excluding Sydney, the rise for Australia as a whole over the past year was about 5%.
"That is a healthy pace but not alarming, and some cities have seen price falls. Developments in the Sydney market remain concerning, but in the end we did not see these trends as overwhelming a case for a further easing in monetary policy that was made on more general grounds."
Following Stevens' remarks, the Commonwealth Bank commented: "The Governor sounds reasonably relaxed about house price trends and that any stimulus from rate cuts to housing activity can be contained.
"This is clearly an area that needs to be watched closely, particularly given the Governor’s comments about the changing effectiveness of interest rate changes. It probably also underlies remarks about the need to reload the fiscal cannon.
"The Governor believes that we should be on a better fiscal trajectory than we currently are." During his speech, Stevens reiterated the importance of supporting the non-mining economy, saying that "at this point non-mining business investment spending is still very subdued".
"While several key fundamentals are in place for stronger performance, clear signs of a near-term strengthening remain unconvincing at this stage. This is a weaker outcome than we had expected six months ago," he said.
Stevens noted that although growth in non-mining sectors had occurred, it remained below average.
"Our expectation had been that a further pick-up would occur in 2015," said Stevens.
"When we reviewed our forecasts in late January, we didn't feel that growth in the recent past had been materially different from what we had estimated a few months ago. But when we tried to look ahead, we concluded that there were fewer signs of a further pick-up in non-mining activity than we had hoped to see by now.
"As a result, the revised forecasts we took to the February Board meeting embodied a longer period of below-trend growth, and a higher peak in the rate of unemployment, than earlier forecasts."
</body></html>

jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Is the Reserve Bank losing its influence? Governor Glenn Stevens' admission during economic outlook update

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Prospective home owners and investors should be careful not to go overboard with the current low interest rate.
Last week the Reserve Bank cut interest rates to a historic low of 2.25% after weeks of speculation.
I encourage home owners to continue to pay off their mortgage with the same or higher repayments in order to build up a buffer to be used in tough times.
Prospective home buyers often get so excited about buying their own place that they forget about evaluating the future.
They base their home loan on their current financial circumstances and don’t take into account their future plans like starting a family or allowing for the fact that rates will rise at some time in the future.
While rates are at historic lows now, it’s important to keep in mind that they won’t stay at these levels for the long term.
There’s no downside to making repayments above your required level as it gives you a safety net in case of difficult financial times or allows you to pay off your mortgage sooner.
In contrast, borrowing to your maximum at this, or any, time is a recipe for disaster.
I recommend people follow my 20-25-20 rule if they want to avoid financial stress where you put down a 20% deposit, ensure no more than 25% of your income is required for repayments and have a term of no longer than 20 years.
Patrick Bright is the founder of Sydney-based buyer’s agency <a href="https://%20www.epspropertysearch.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">EPS Property Search</a>.
Patrick is the author of four best-selling real estate books known as “The Insider’s Guide to Buying Real Estate Series”.
</body></html>

pbright-aNtgvRfvJN

Buyers beware the lure of low interest rates: Patrick Bright

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The move by the RBA to a<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/" target="_blank"> record-low 2.25% cash rate </a>at its first meeting for 2015 has unsurprisingly reignited speculation of a <a href="https://news.domain.com.au/domain/interest-rate-cut-likely-to-turbocharge-sydney-houseprice-growth-20150203-134qd6" target="_blank">“turbo-charged” bubble</a> in Sydney’s house prices.
In actuality, the rate cut will not ignite a housing bubble and is the right policy given broader macroeconomic conditions.
While prospective property buyers in Sydney may feel the central bank has snubbed them, monetary policy is about a lot more than Sydney’s house prices. While pockets of Sydney have experienced high price appreciation in the past 12 months, this growth has not been experienced evenly across the city and certainly not across the country. <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/monthly-indices" target="_blank">Latest data from CoreLogic RP Data</a>, for example, show that while property prices in Sydney are up 13% over the past year, prices in Perth (2.56%), Darwin (1.40%) and Canberra (-0.34%) have barely kept pace with inflation in the 12 months to 31 Jan 2015.
This high variation in property prices across the country is a recurring theme in Australia. The figure below shows the average annual housing market returns to the east coast cities (SMB: Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane) against non-east coast cities (APD: Adelaide, Perth and Darwin). For comparison, housing market returns in Sydney alone are also charted.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71256/area14mp/image-20150205-28589-fn4ndj.JPG"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71256/width668/image-20150205-28589-fn4ndj.JPG" alt=""></a>
Several facts become apparent in this analysis. Firstly, while price growth in Sydney has been high and increasing in the past year, it is not a bubble and is showing signs of cooling off. It also shows how the two-speed economy extends to housing markets.
Monetary Policy Is About More Than Sydney’s House Prices
The RBA cash rate is a blunt policy tool. The same rate applies to the housing market in Sydney as much as Perth, and to homeowners as much as small business owners, farmers and stock market investors. Adjusting the cash rate in order to target something as specific as house prices in Sydney is certainly not the appropriate response.
Rather the RBA has used the cash rate to target inflation. In the broader economy, there has been a significant easing in inflationary pressures. Commodity prices are falling, unemployment is creeping up and, most importantly from the RBA’s perspective, the consumer price index grew at its slowest rate since mid-2012 last year, slipping below the 2-3% target range.
Another common argument you will hear from the bubble-spruikers is that property investors are going to fuel price increases with lower borrowing rates. Over the past year credit growth to housing investors has grown relative to homeowners (<a href="https://www.afr.com/p/national/abs_admits_big_error_on_first_home_ucmamlfo725pG6fBM9JgKL" target="_blank">although subsequent data revisions indicate this difference was initially exaggerated</a>). However, this trend is unlikely to continue with rents steady and yields falling markedly in the past year. Where the average rental yield in Sydney in 2013 was over 4.25% it has fallen to under 3.9% in 2014.
Sydney rental yield:
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71257/area14mp/image-20150206-28594-1wn5gq7.JPG"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71257/width668/image-20150206-28594-1wn5gq7.JPG" alt=""></a> 
It is the role of regulators and government, not the RBA, to consider issues such as housing affordability and equitable access. We are seeing other regulators, such as the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), actively monitoring lending practices as a targeted response to risks in the housing market. Earlier this week, the Prime Minister also signalled that <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/foreign-investment-rules-set-for-overhaul/story-fn3dxiwe-1227205321823">issues around foreign investment would be considered by the government and Foreign Investment Review Board</a> in coming weeks.
Keep these facts in mind as the tea leaves of the RBA’s February Statement on Monetary Policy are read and you hear about the impending property bubble.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/37269/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Danika Wright is a lecturer in finance at University of Sydney.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
</body></html>

Hot air but no bubble following RBA rate cut: Danika Wright

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
This week’s Reserve Bank interest rate move surprised virtually everyone, bringing the cash rate to 2.25%, yet another historic low.
Despite Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey suggesting the rate cut means “the shackles are off the Australian economy,” the cut is unlikely on its own to kick Australia’s GDP growth rate back to trend level. But with a little help from friends offshore and a light touch from APRA, the rate cut just might work.
Let us review for a moment how a lower cash rate can boost the economy – the so-called “transmission channels” for monetary policy. There are three. First, rate cuts change asset prices, including foreign exchange rates. Second, rate cuts should reduce the cost of capital, all else being equal. Third, rate cuts should increase the availability of credit from banks’ balance sheets. All three elements are important considerations in yesterday’s move.
Asset prices moved according to expectations, with the ASX rallying 1.4% on the news. The main game, however, was the exchange rate.
Pushing the dollar down
Many commentators have focused their attention on the AUD-USD exchange rate, which fell by 1.5 cents immediately after the rate cut. Was this the RBA’s main target? The AUD had already depreciated significantly against the US dollar, with the AUD-USD as of 2 February already 15% below its average over the first half of 2014. At AUD/USD0.7769 as of 2 February, the benchmark rate of exchange was very near the level that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens had indicated was desirable.
What had not moved perhaps as much as the RBA might have liked was the trade-weighted index, which measures the AUD against a basket of the exchange rates of our major trading partners. The TWI had declined only 10% relative to its average rate across the first half of 2014, making the AUD the unwilling strong man in a world of “currency wars” depreciation. The ECB’s decision in late January to engage in its own version of quantitative easing - which sent the AUD back up above the AUD-EUR0.70 level, may have been one of the straws that broke the camel’s back and contributed to this early rate decision.
As of Tuesday, the TWI had dropped to below 63 for the first time since July 2009. This is welcome relief. But it can only last so long as other major central banks outside the US co-operate by avoiding further easing of their own.
What is likely to prove more important - and more durable - is a lower cost of capital and the potential to spur investment through greater availability of banking credit to the economy. Here, too, the RBA needs help – from the Abbott government and APRA.
Getting credit flowing to business
There is not a great deal of evidence to date that a lower cost of capital – with a historically low 2.5% cash rate already in place for a year – has induced an increase in investment in the Australian economy outside the property sector. Capital expenditure by firms has been largely limited to the resources sector, and is now petering out.
The household savings rate remains high, while the debt-to-asset ratio has fallen. This suggests households are electing to increase their equity in current investments rather than using leverage to expand their investment portfolios.
<img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71164/area14mp/image-20150205-28601-3e6u3t.png">
Within the property sector, credit continues to grow at a relatively rapid pace, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-how-exposed-are-australian-banks-30272" target="_blank">credit growth</a> for investment properties far outpacing the expansion of credit for other purposes - whether household or business. In 2014, credit to purchase investment properties appears to have accounted for about 35% of all new credit creation in the economy. No wonder critics worry that the RBA’s rate cut has the potential to stoke excessive leverage in the property market.
The question becomes whether there are other triggers that can be pulled to encourage more credit to flow into other types of investment in the Australian economy. Ideally, that would be a renewed expansion of business credit to support increased capital expenditure, and eventually business activity and employment.
<img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71165/area14mp/image-20150205-28578-egik59.png">
The RBA cannot dictate that looser monetary policy be directed toward the business sector. But the Abbott government and APRA have in hand the tool to provide a not-so-gentle nudge.
Will the government act on Murray’s advice?
We are merely weeks away from the deadline for final feedback to the <a href="https://fsi.gov.au/" target="_blank">Financial System Inquiry</a>, led by David Murray. A key recommendation of the inquiry was to raise banks’ average internal ratings-based risk weights on mortgages to narrow the difference between the mortgage risk weights used by authorised deposit-taking institutions and the “standard” risk weights used by other institutions.
In shorthand, this recommendation would force the Big 4 banks to hold more capital against their mortgage books, making the mortgage-writing business relatively more expensive (and less attractive) from a capital perspective.
This recommendation makes sense. The post-2008 boom in investment property has been driven in part by investor demand – but also in part by the Big 4 banks being willing underwriters of residential real estate. This willingness has in turn been driven, at least in part, by the regulatory setting that makes mortgages one of the least capital-intensive – and therefore cheapest to produce – lending products in the Australian market.
Reducing this regulatory incentive to lend into the property market holds the potential to increase the appetite among the Big 4 for other types of lending, including business credit. It is a reform that the Abbott government and APRA can hang their hat on in 2015.
Amy Auster is deputy director at Australian Centre for Financial Studies.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. 
</body></html>

AmyAuster-LX8uHdhTjE

How to multiply the rate cut impact and unshackle the economy: Amy Auster

<html><body>
Back in November a little-noticed graph in Westpac’s 2014 profit result told an important story: the proportion of bad or worrisome loans on the banks books — in the jargon, stressed exposures as a percentage of TCE or total committed exposures — had dropped below 2008 levels, to 1.24%.
That is to say, Westpac had weathered the storm, the crisis was over. Rounding out the picture of a healthy bank were lower wholesale funding costs, higher net interest margins and record profits. And of course, Westpac and the other big banks had emerged from the crisis with much less competition from smaller and non-bank lenders.
<img src="https://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/tce.png" width="430" height="505">
Which is a roundabout way of saying the big banks did not have a leg to stand on when it came to passing on Tuesday’s 0.25 percentage point cut to the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank.
As though his life depended on it, Treasurer Joe Hockey made that crystal clear in his press conference yesterday afternoon, and you could hear the urgency in his voice on ABC Radio yesterday:
“The flow-through to the Australian economy is significant. And importantly, it must be immediate. And I say again to the Australian banks, pass it on in full now, not just to home owners, but importantly small business and credit cards as well.”
The Commonwealth Bank was the first of the Big Four to move, cutting standard variable home loan rates by 0.25 percentage points (and, interestingly, five-year fixed rates by 0.3 percentage points). Westpac quickly cut by an even higher 0.28 percentage points, and NAB, which has its rates under review, is certain to follow. ANZ customers will have to hold their breath since chief Mike Smith announced a year ago a stand-offish, stick-in-the-mud policy of waiting until Fridays (three days after the RBA meets each month) to announce any changes to interest rates, to stop bank-bashing treasurers, shadow treasurers and journalists berating the bank within seconds of any official rates move.
As they cut rates more or less in lockstep, however, the banks might be permitted a private grumble about mixed signals coming from the federal government and regulators. On one hand, David Murray’s Financial System Inquiry has just recommended the banks tighten home loan risk weights and retain higher levels of capital, to prevent another “too big to fail” moment requiring the kind of public bailout we saw in Australia with the bank deposit and wholesale funding guarantees or (much worse) in the United States, where the government spent trillions buying troubled assets and the Fed took equity stakes in the likes of Citigroup and Goldman Sachs to recapitalise them. The same pressure is felt internationally from the Financial Stability Board for example, and Australia’s big four — still among the world’s biggest banks — are key players in the debate.
Furthermore, the banks are being asked by Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) —  quite rightly, <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2014/11/03/bullying-banks-threaten-govt-over-price-signalling/?wpmp_switcher=mobile" target="_blank">as Crikey has argued</a>  — to toughen lending standards, particularly for those low- or no-deposit home loans originated by mortgage brokers on sales commission incentivised to maximise volume. As house prices surge — entering “new paradigm” territory with the likes of real estate agent John McGrath tipping that inner-Sydney suburbs will be “hot forever” — and self-managed super funds pile in, reducing housing affordability, right when income and jobs growth are receding, the systemic risk represented by some kind of house price slump increases. Tighter “macro-prudential” controls will hurt first home buyers struggling to get into the market, but they are necessary to stop borrowers over-committing on the false premise that prices only move in one direction.
On the other hand, despite this hawkish regulatory tendency, the second the RBA loosens monetary policy, we find ourselves screaming at the banks to “pass it on this instant!”. When it comes to the crunch, we all want easier money.
This story originally appeared on <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2015/02/04/hockey-bets-it-all-on-a-rate-cut-but-will-the-banks-save-his-bacon/">Crikey</a>.
</body></html>

Hockey bets it all on a rate cut, but will the banks save his bacon?

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Though markets had somewhat priced in an Australian interest rate cut yesterday, many analysts and commentators were still left surprised.
The rate had not been cut for 18 months. Over that period commentary varied over the entire gamut of the need for both increased and decreased rates. But the markets have until this point been largely satisfied with the expectation of little change.
This time the markets were concerned. The falling value of the Australian dollar showed their uncertainty about the likelihood of a move (although the direction was fairly well expected).
What can we learn from the market reactions and the extent of the cut?
Norwegian economist Tore Ellingsen and Swedish central banker Ulf Söderström <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2677943?sid=21105778703003&amp;uid=2&amp;uid=3737536&amp;uid=4">have argued</a> that the behaviour of the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp">yield curve</a> following a rate cut clearly indicates the nature of the surprise experienced by the market. To sum up, if the yield curve simply shifts this represents the extent to which the change in the interest rate reflects changes in the economic environment as assessed by the central bank. On the other hand, if the yield curve rotates this represents communication of changing preferences over the economic aims of the central bank.
This simplification of their theoretical model is useful in the current context. First of all, it is very evident that the Australian yield curve did not rotate in reaction to the news yesterday. There is no evidence the central bank has changed its preferences in relation to its economic aims. The rhetoric in the bank’s statement and the market actions as a result do not show any inconsistency with the policy concerns that all players in the market are familiar with. This should be comforting.
The fact that the yield curve shifted means the markets were surprised by the action to some extent. One mechanism of surprise can be that the markets are waiting for validation of the expert view in the market from the central bank in the face of considerable uncertainty – and this may well be the most compelling argument for the current action.
Many academic economists (myself included) <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/rba-shadow-board/outcome/2015-02">supported</a> a continuation of the 2.50% rate as the most appropriate path last week. However markets were unsure; in this case the cut seems to have served to increase transparency about policy and the economic situation, helping to anchor expectations. Taken to its extreme the transparency argument suggests that a central bank with strong rhetoric will almost never surprise financial markets, as expectations will be managed via other communication means.
So how does the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) perform in communicating its policy intentions in general?
New research in collaboration with former Treasury economist Edda Claus (based on a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00539.x/abstract;jsessionid=5A56AE7055E885361CBBEAEDA6877597.f03t01?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&amp;userIsAuthenticated=false">methodology we developed</a>), compared the policy surprises generated at the RBA, Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve over the last two decades, and found the RBA is less likely to surprise.
The RBA appears to be particularly good by international standards in providing clear policy guidance to markets and sticking with a consistent policy agenda. Even during periods of significant market stress, the changes in policy preferences and direction do not surprise the market to the extent evident in Canada and the US.
The global leadership of the US markets may explain some of the greater evidence of surprise in Fed actions, but the comparison between Canada and Australia is of considerable interest. Studies that use institutional factors to measure transparency clearly favour the Bank of Canada as more transparent than the RBA. Yet, the market evidence, which directly addresses the question of “do the markets understand the actions?”, clearly favours the strategies of the RBA.
The actions of the RBA in reducing the cash rate, accompanied by the rhetoric in the press release, seem to be part of the RBA’s consistent moves to clarify its current assessment of the economic situation for the market. This has reassured the market that there is no departure from its policy aims and agenda.
The reassurance that monetary policy is well in hand is likely to be a calming influence in what are unsettled international conditions over which Australia has no control. This has to be a good thing.
Mardi Dungey is professor of Economics and Finance, Associate Dean of Research, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics at University of Tasmania
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
</body></html>

Why it's good for markets to second-guess the RBA: Mardi Dungey

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Heading into 2015, I think we can expect to see a steady increase in the level of refinancing.
The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut the cash rate in February will no doubt encourage more home owners to review their current mortgage, which may prompt them to take the plunge and refinance into a more competitively priced home loan.
But while an increasing number of home owners could potentially be inspired to refinance their mortgage as a result of the rate cut, I do not expect to see a dramatic increase in the number of new home buyers entering the market.
Given how low interest rates already are, the February rate cut is unlikely to persuade potential home buyers to bring their property purchase plans forward. Instead, potential buyers will continue to take their time and enter the market at a point that is convenient for them.
That said, the Reserve Bank of Australia together with other industry regulators, including the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), will still keep a close eye on what is happening in the property market as they will want to make sure the rate cut doesn’t artificially inflate the property market – especially in Sydney.
As part of the Reserve Bank’s February cash rate decision, governor Glenn Stevens said the Bank would work closely with “other regulators to assess and contain economic risks that may arise from the housing market”. 
This statement strongly suggests industry regulators won’t hesitate to implement certain lending restrictions if the latest rate cut results in a sudden and dramatic increase in demand for property.
Jessica Darnbrough is head of corporate affairs with <a href="https://www.mortgagechoice.com.au/" target="_blank">Mortgage Choice</a>.
</body></html>

JessicaDarnbrough-syp4rPD4iy

RBA's rate cut will trigger rise in refinancing: Jessica Darnbrough

<html><body>
Here are eight recent quotes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made in reference to the Australian property market:
<ol>
<li>"Prices have risen faster than consumer prices, but they have not risen materially faster than household incomes… This is not a country where we haven't experienced house price falls; we have experienced house price falls. There is risk in the system that people have already experienced. It's simply incorrect to treat the Australian history as if there had never been any kind of downturn." October, RBA head of financial stability, Luci Ellis, at the AHURI panel roundtable 
</li>
<li>"Australia is not one of the boomier places over the last 10 years. Prices have risen faster than consumer prices, but they have not risen materially faster than household incomes in Australia… Mortgage repayments are lower than the average of the past 10 or 15 years, so again thinking about what it means to have affordability and unaffordability – the affordability of a current mortgage is not unusually high at present." October, RBA head of financial stability, Luci Ellis, at the AHURI panel roundtable 
</li>
<li>"Apartment construction in the inner city [in particular Melbourne, Sydney] has been at high levels for some time and, given the time lags in completing higher density constructions, is expected to remain elevated for the next few years. That said, liaison suggests that construction in Melbourne continues to be driven by strong demand, including from foreign investors, with pre-sale levels remaining high." September, RBA Financial Stability Review 
</li>
<li>"A related risk, which is likely to be currently most pronounced in Melbourne, is that some new developments may appeal to a relatively narrow segment of tenant or owner demand. For example, some new developments involve smaller-sized apartments that are targeted at international students, which could be harder to sell in the secondary market than more traditional-sized apartments. This could place downward pressure on apartment prices if student demand weakens or if there are other shocks that reduce foreign investors’ appetite for these apartments." September, RBA Financial Stability Review 
</li>
<li>"Dwelling investment had increased by more than 8% over the year to the June quarter, and continued strength in building approvals and other indicators pointed to further growth in coming quarters. House price growth had been a little slower, on average, over 2014 than in late 2013, but remained consistent with strong conditions in the established housing market." October RBA board minutes 
</li>
<li>"What matters is how much speculation there is in the market and what that might mean for a subsequent price cycle, and at the moment there is more speculative activity than we are comfortable with." October, RBA head of financial stability, Luci Ellis, Senate Inquiry into housing affordability 
</li>
<li>"Some of this [growth seen in the property markets, such as Sydney] perhaps represented an element of catch up after some earlier weakness. Nonetheless, prices have continued to rise significantly faster than incomes, and this has been associated with strong growth in investor activity." October, RBA assistant governor Malcolm Edey, Senate Inquiry into housing affordability 
</li>
<li>"The general point I would make is that we can't improve housing affordability simply by adding to demand. Targeted assistance can certainly help particular groups such as first home buyers, but without a supply-side response, any generalised increase in demand will just be capitalised into prices." October, RBA assistant governor Malcolm Edey, Senate Inquiry into housing affordability
</li>
</ol>
</body></html>

jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Eight quotes from the RBA about Australia’s property market

<html><body>
Yesterday’s announcement from the Reserve Bank (RBA) that the overnight cash rate will remain at 2.5% for October came amid speculation that interest rates are likely to increase in mid-2015. Housing Institute of Australia (HIA) senior economist Shane Garrett said the decision was widely expected, and stable interest rates will be seen for a while. “This will provide a welcome degree of certainty to those engaged in the housing industry, as well as other areas of the economy,” said Garrett.   “The era of very low interest rates has provided a welcome boost to new home building, and is doing something to alleviate the shortage of dwelling accommodation suffered by Australia,” he said.
With all the factors the RBA has been considering, ANZ’s summary included the following important points of note:
<ul>
<li>The Bank remains concerned about the outlook for China, however noted it had been slowing in recent months. 
</li>
<li>Acknowledgement of the recent volatility in the labour market data. 
</li>
<li>They remain relaxed about inflation due to subdued wages growth, which will help to offset upside influence from the weaker currency. 
</li>
<li>The rhetoric on domestic housing has been lifted slightly, noting a “further pick-up in recent months in lending to investors in housing assets”. 
</li>
<li>A further decline in the Australian Dollar will be watched for. Although it remains high by historical standards it is offering “less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy”. 
</li>
<li>The comment about a period of stability was repeated verbatim from last month.</li>
</ul>
Loan Market chairman Sam White said that in recent weeks there has been talk of macro prudential measures to be introduced to slow down the real estate market without raising rates. "Broadly we support this way forward. However, we'd urge the RBA not to penalise first home buyers from entering the market, as has happened recently in New Zealand," White said.
</body></html>

Rba Rate Decision

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Rba Rate Decision

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News