Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

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Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

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Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

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The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

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Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

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“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

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Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

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Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Rba Rate Decision

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The RBA cash rate decision came out at 2.30 today with the decision to hold rates. The bank's last move saw it go to 2 per cent at the May 2015 meeting.
Today’s decision to keep the cash rate unchanged came as no surprise.
Mortgage Choice chief executive officer John Flavell said today’s decision by the Board was ‘unsurprising’.
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic RP Data head of research, said there were plenty of reasons why the RBA may have contemplated cutting the cash rate today.
He noted however the housing market was playing out exactly as the RBA probably would have hoped:  losing steam without a collapse in values. 
"The last three months have seen capital city dwelling values drift 0.6% lower and capital city home values are up by only 0.7% over the past six months."
"The RBA probably doesn’t need to worry too much about over stimulating the housing market via another rate cut; mortgage rates are already higher than a year ago due to the higher capital requirements implemented by APRA and the pace of investment growth has fallen below APRA’s 10% speed limit imposed in December 2014.  
"With heat in the housing market no longer likely to be a major concern for the RBA, a major obstacle has been removed from preventing rate cuts and we may see the cash rate move lower later in the year," Lawless said.
Laing+Simmons managing director Leanne Pilkington said she hoped the banks follow the RBA’s lead and keep their rates steady too.
“Certainly there’s no genuine impetus for the majors to move independently, aside from greed,” she said.
 
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RBA holds interest rates at 2 percent at February 2016 meeting

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<h3>The RBA shadow group suggest that despite the turmoil in global markets, a rate hold is still the best policy.</h3>
People who invested in shares have not had a good start to the new year.
Global stock markets have seen falls of more than 15 percent in some places as investors worry about slow growth in China.
The Australian share market losses are slightly more modest but the Australian dollar has been caught in the maelstrom, temporarily trading as low as 69 US¢.
Unemployment is steady, while inflation in the December quarter edged up to 1.7 percent, from 1.5 percent in the previous quarter and remains below the RBA's target band of 2-3 percent.
Latest figures estimate GDP growth at 2.5% annualized, a slight improvement over the previous quarter.
 
What the CAMA RBA Shadow Board believe
 
The CAMA RBA Shadow Board on balance prefers to keep the cash rate on hold, attaching a 69% probability to this being the appropriate policy setting.
The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 17%, down five percentage points from the previous month, while the confidence in a required rate hike has risen to 14%.
Australia’s unemployment, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is steady at 5.8%.
Employment has barely budged, though there has been an increase in full-time employment accompanied by an offsetting decrease in part-time employment.
Even though the participation rate is down to 65.1%, the labour market, at least for moment, appears robust.
After pausing around the 72 US¢ for some time, the Aussie dollar has depreciated further, briefly falling to as low as 69 US¢.
It now trades above 70 US¢ again. A further weakening of the international and domestic economies may see the Aussie dollar decline further.
Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds have fallen again, most recently to 2.69%, pointing to weakness in the Australian economy.
Globally, the economic outlook is weakening. Even though the US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate during its last FOMC meeting of 2015, the rest of the world is teetering.
Global share markets, led by China, suffered big losses in the opening weeks of the new year.
Increasingly cracks are showing in emerging market economies, following excessive debt levels and plummeting commodity prices.
Consequently, an estimated $740 billion (net) flowed out of emerging markets in 2015, most of it leaving China.
Further capital flight is likely, and there is a genuine risk that some countries and some financial institutions will be in serious financial difficulties.
Overall, global growth is likely to be sluggish, a view shared by the International Monetary Fund, which recently dropped its growth forecast for the world in 2016 from 3.6% to 3.4%.
Consumer and producer sentiment measures are pointing South.
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 101 in December 2015 to 97.3 in January.
Business confidence, according to the NAB business survey, after a brief blip up, fell again from 5 to 3.
The AIG manufacturing and services indices, leading economic indicators, both fell.
The Shadow Board’s confidence that the cash rate should remain at its current level increased marginally, from 67% in December to 69%.
The confidence that a rate cut is appropriate has dropped for the second time in a row and now equals 17% (22% in December); the confidence that a rate increase, to 2.25% or higher, is necessary has risen to 14% (11% in December).
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 2% is nearly unchanged at 24% (23% in December).
The estimated need for an interest rate increase is unchanged at 60%, while the need for a rate decrease has slipped to 16% (17% in December).
A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady edged up a percentage point, from 18% to 19%, while the confidence in a required cash rate increase equals 66% (67% in December) and in a required cash rate decrease 16% (unchanged from December).
To access the comments made by the RBA Shadow board <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/outcome/attachments/2016-01/shadow_board_comments_february2016.pdf" target="_blank">click here</a>
 
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Turmoil in global markets causing headaches: RBA Shadow Board

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<h3 id="mr-title">Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision</h3>
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some further softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, in part reflecting increased supply, including from Australia. Australia's terms of trade are falling.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment. While credit costs for some emerging market countries remain higher than a year ago, global financial conditions overall remain very accommodative.
In Australia, the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues. While GDP growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, business surveys suggest a gradual improvement in conditions over the past year. This has been accompanied by somewhat stronger growth in employment and a steady rate of unemployment.
Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years, but a little lower than earlier expected.
In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with growth in lending to investors in the housing market easing slightly while that for owner-occupiers appears to be picking up. Dwelling prices continue to rise in Melbourne and Sydney, though the pace of growth has moderated of late. Growth in dwelling prices has remained mostly subdued in other cities. Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.
In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.
At today's meeting the Board judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting. Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand. The Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.
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Containing housing risks as supervisory measures assist: November RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' statement

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GUEST OBSERVER
The cash rate has been left at a record low of 2% for a fifth month (six months of rates at 2%). The Reserve Bank has left the accompanying statement the same – almost word-for-word.
The Aussie dollar rose by a third of a cent as investors gave up on hopes for a rate cut in the future. What does it all mean?
In outlining where the Reserve Bank stands on interest rate settings, the Governor recently told the House of Representatives Economics Committee, "I think we are pretty content where we are right now.” And little more needs to be said.
The key question now, is what will be the next move on rates? It is clear to us that the economy is picking up momentum but there are still challenges ahead, so interest rates should remain on hold. But there is certainly no case for rate cuts. 
Consider:
Car sales are at record highs
Building approvals are at record highs
Job ads have lifted for 14 of the last 16 months
Employment has posted the biggest 6-month gain in 41⁄2 years
Manufacturing &amp; services sectors are expanding
The Aussie dollar has fallen around US17 cents over the past year
The only real changes to the text of the statement. In September: “Equity markets have been considerably more volatile of late, associated with developments in China, though other financial markets have been relatively stable”. In October: “Equity market volatility has continued, but the functioning of financial markets generally has not, to date, been impaired.”
Also, in September: “The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market.” In October: “Regulatory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.”
The only other change: the Reserve Bank noted “Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney and Melbourne...” In September it only referred to prices in Sydney.
Bottom line is that there has been no change to the neutral policy stance – a stance that suggests that the next move in rates could be either up or down. 
<a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.24.39%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.24.39%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

RBA's contentment with neutral stance maintained: CommSec's Craig James

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The Reserve Bank Board meets on August 4. We expect the Board will decide to keep rates on hold. 
Markets are in full agreement with this view with only a negligible probability of a rate cut being priced in. 
It is a different story for November with market pricing oscillating between 60% and 80% probability of a cut by then. 
With this in mind, attention will focus on the Governor’s decision statement, released at 2:30pm on August 4, and the Statement on Monetary Policy which will print at 11.30am on August 7. 
We are not expecting any surprises in the Governor’ statement. He has finally found the right approach to ‘talking down’ the Australian dollar with the language:
 “Further depreciation seems both likely AND necessary, particularly given the significant declines in commodity prices”. He first used that sentence in May when the AUD was around USD 0.787; followed up in June (USD 0.7682) and then in July (USD 0.744). 
Now at USD 0.73 the AUD has certainly not fallen sufficiently for the Governor to abandon a successful strategy. Further, we suspect that the key reason behind his referring to potential further easing (“We remain open to the possibilities of further easing if that is, on balance, beneficial for sustainable growth”) in speeches is also a desire to maintain downward pressure on the Australian dollar. 
The forecasts for growth and inflation presented in the Statement on Monetary Policy will be of critical interest. 
Recall that in February this year the Bank adopted an approach of assuming ‘market pricing’ for the cash rate profile. At the time the market had a near 100% probability of a further rate cut by June to complement the cut in February. Markets could be excused 
for interpreting that change of approach as, in effect, franking its pricing for another rate cut. The Bank repeated the approach in its May Statement on Monetary Policy, when market pricing only had a 40% probability of a follow-up cut by year’s end price in – not a high enough probability to encourage speculation. 
Next week, with markets pricing in a 65% probability of a further rate cut by year’s end and an 80% probably of a move by early next year, considerable attention will be given to whether the assumption of market pricing is retained. I expect that for the purposes of continuity the Bank will retain the market pricing assumption but would not interpret this as any kind of signal. 
On the other hand, if the Bank drops that assumption, it would be a most discouraging signal for those folks expecting a near term rate cut. 
Note that in the May Statement on Monetary Policy the Bank forecast that underlying inflation would centre around 2.25% in 2016. Apart from during the depths of concerns around the Global Financial Crisis in 2009, this is the first time since the Bank started publishing forecasts that it has forecast underlying inflation to be below than the midpoint of the target range in the next calendar year.
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This is surely a very dovish signal from the authorities. Even though the AUD has fallen from USD 0.80 (the assumption used for its inflation and growth forecasts in May) to USD 0.73 I expect that the Bank will retain its dovish inflation forecast. 
The other risk is around the Bank’s assessment of trend growth. 
As discussed in last week’s note the Governor indicated that the Bank would be reviewing its assumption of trend growth, which has generally been assessed as 3–3.25%. 
Australia has been consistently growing below that pace since the GFC. The assessed negative output gap has weighed on inflation. If however, the trend growth rate was, say, 2.75% then the negative output gap would be smaller and disinflationary pressures less intense. Theoretically, all else being equal, that would imply a need to raise the inflation forecasts. 
We expect that the Bank may make that adjustment in future but not in the next Statement on Monetary Policy. 
Recall that the growth forecasts are currently 2.5% for 2015 and 3.25% for 2016, down from 2.75% and 3.5% respectively in the February Statement. 
Since May the data releases around the real economy have generally been disappointing. In particular the March quarter national accounts and the March quarter Capex survey have revealed a weaker than expected investment profile for both mining and non-mining and no evidence of a recovery in the downbeat 2.5% annualised pace of consumer spending. 
The ‘sticker shock’ effect of further lowering the 2015 forecast seems too high to consider but it does seem likely that the growth forecast for 2016 will be reduced to 3%. 
Policy will be targeted on growth in 2016. At 3%, growth would still be assessed at ‘around’ current estimates of trend and would still be consistent with no policy change. 
However, markets might seize on the disturbing downtrend in the 2016 growth forecasts and speculate on a ‘below trend’ forecast for 2016 in the November Statement on Monetary Policy. 
That would not be a good strategy. 
By then the Bank is likely to have adopted a lower trend growth assumption (say 2.5–2.75%). Even with a further downward revision to the growth forecast in 2016, from 3% to 2.75%, this would still be at or above the newly assessed trend precluding the need for a policy response. 
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA will hold: Westpac's Bill Evans

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the official cash rate at 2% for June.
The RBA last cut rates in May and February.
"With the RBA focussing on stimulating economic growth, dragging the Australian dollar lower and lifting consumer spending, they are likely to focus less on the growth in the housing market," CoreLogic RP Data head of research, Tim Lawless said.
"The RBA is likely to look through the pause in the rise of dwelling values reported by CoreLogic RP Data for the month of May, paying more attention to the strong upwards trend that has been evident in Sydney and Melbourne since mid-2012. 
"Dwelling values have risen by 39% in Sydney and by 22% in Melbourne over the past three years, while the other capital cities have seen much more sedate conditions. 
"At a time when interest rates remain low, there is the expectation that tougher lending requirements to investors as well as higher supply levels will start to cool housing market conditions and bring the rates of capital gain back to more sustainable levels across the two largest cities where growth in dwelling values has been the highest," Tim Lawless said 
More time is needed to see if historic low interest rates are impacting on property markets outside of Sydney and Melbourne, according to the real estate network LJ Hooker.
LJ Hooker CEO Grant Harrod said the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to wait for May’s cut to influence the economy was sensible, despite weak business investment figures. 
He believes an interest rate cut is now more likely at the end of the year, if needed, to stimulate the economy.
“We haven’t seen any signs but it is too early to call if it’s had any positive effect in cities such as Perth and Canberra - it could take another three to six months,’’ he said.
In Sydney, a lack of listings combined with historic low interest rates are continuing to bring record numbers of people to open inspections and push up property prices. 
Mr Harrod believes it has evolved as a unique market and is likely protected from any ‘bubble’ due to a lag in DA approvals to match population growth.
“The biggest issue facing all agents at the moment is the lack of listings and the proliferation of buyers,” he said.
“The total number of properties available for sale across the LJ Hooker network is down by about five percent and the industry has dropped 5.5%.”
 
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Rates on hold at RBA June 2015 meeting

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GUEST OBSERVATION
As we had forecast the Reserve Bank Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25bps to 2%.
For Westpac this brings to a close an interesting six months in forecasting. When we changed our view on 4 December, 2014 we were the only institution in the Bloomberg survey who forecast that the cash rate would be at 2% by May 2015.
The most surprising aspect of the Governor’s statement is that he has not chosen to indicate a ‘soft’ easing bias. In fact, the explanation behind the decision indicates renewed optimism in the economy with the obvious implication that rates are likely to be on hold for some time. Specifically, he commented: “The Board judged that the inflation outlook provided the opportunity for monetary policy to be eased further, so as to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand.”
The language around the Australian dollar was the most strident we have seen. Not only does he predict that a further depreciation seems likely but also labels it as “necessary”.
It must have been a disappointment for the Governor to see that the Australian dollar lift to around US 79c (from 78.50). This is clearly the market response to the final paragraph which signals an end, at this stage, to the easing cycle.
Consistent with the final paragraph the commentary around consumer spending and the labour market is more upbeat than in previous statements – “the available information suggests improved trends”.
Those doubting that a cut would be delivered today placed most emphasis on risks in the housing market. The Governor addresses that issue by pointing out that outside Sydney trends in the housing market have been varied. Once again he emphasises the macroprudential tools that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) is now enforcing within the banking system. It is our view that these guidelines will have a cooling impact on housing markets.
In our previews to this meeting we emphasised that we expect that the Bank will lower its growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016 due to a weaker outlook for business investment, both mining and non-mining. The Governor clearly highlights business investment as the key drag on private demand.
He also maintains the line that the economy will be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet.
For the first time in this cycle the Governor speculates on the policy of the Federal Reserve with the expectation that the Fed will be tightening later this year. Clearly that will provide an important contribution to the Governor’s expectation that the Australian dollar will depreciate further. Westpac shares that view with our current expectation that the Fed will begin tightening in September with a follow up move in December.
The outlook
We have consistently argues that 2% will be ‘the resting place’ for this easing cycle. The Bank will now take time to assess the sustainability of their current forecast that economic growth in 2016 will exceed 3%. That is above trend growth and consistent with stability and an eventual fall in the unemployment rate. For our part the next significant date will be the November Board meeting. By that time the Bank will have sufficient information around the momentum in the economy through 2015 for it to assess whether its relatively positive outlook for growth in 2016 can be sustained.
Our current forecast is that despite an ongoing drag from mining and non-mining business investment there will be a sufficient lift in household demand (both consumption and dwelling investment) to justify a 3% growth rate in 2016. However, with record weak income growth, fragile confidence and ongoing headwinds from fiscal policy the risks to this outlook are to the downside.
In addition the absence of an easing bias and Australia’s ongoing yield advantage over other countries could frustrate the Bank’s ambitions to see a substantially lower AUD.
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA adopts optimistic tone and abandons easing bias: Bill Evans

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.0% at its May meeting.
Many expected the RBA's decision after it kept rates on hold for April. The move <a href="/expert-insights/finance/amp-capitals-shane-oliver-wont-be-surprised-if-rba-holds-off-another-cut-in-may">was anticipated</a> by AMP Capital head of Investment Strategy and chief economist Shane Oliver among others.
According to comparison website <a href="https://finder.com.au">Finder</a>'s Michelle Hutchison, borrowers with a variable rate home loan are likely to save around $47 a month on a $300,000 loan with the new official cash rate.
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Reserve Bank cuts interest rate to 2.0% for May

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.0%, effective 6 May 2015.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, but commodity prices have declined over the past year, in some cases sharply. These trends appear largely to reflect increased supply, including from Australia. Australia's terms of trade are falling nonetheless.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate later this year, but some other major central banks are stepping up the pace of unconventional policy measures. Hence, financial conditions remain very accommodative globally, with long-term borrowing rates for sovereigns and creditworthy private borrowers remarkably low.
In Australia, the available information suggests improved trends in household demand over the past six months and stronger growth in employment. Looking ahead, the key drag on private demand is likely to be weakness in business capital expenditure in both the mining and non-mining sectors over the coming year. Public spending is also scheduled to be subdued. The economy is therefore likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.
Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending, and credit is recording moderate growth overall, with stronger lending to businesses of late. Growth in lending to the housing market has been steady over recent months. Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market. In other asset markets, prices for equities and commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates.
The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies. Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.
At today's meeting, the Board judged that the inflation outlook provided the opportunity for monetary policy to be eased further, so as to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand.
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Rate down to 2.0% despite Sydney risks: Governor Glenn Stevens' May 2015 statement

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept the official cash rate on hold this month.
The official cash rate remains at its record low of 2.25%, after a 25 basis point cut last month.
The majority of experts <a href="/expert-insights/finance/experts-split-on-reserve-banks-march-rate-move-finder">surveyed by comparison website Finder</a>, including NAB's Alan Oster, anticipated that the Reserve Bank would announce that rates would not change this month.
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