<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Property News

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<p>The herd mentality and the FOMO syndrome drive far too many investment decisions in Australian real estate.</p>
<p>It helps to explain why most Australians who attempt property investment have a bad experience. </p>
<p>When people are driven by an impulse to do what others are doing (the herd mentality) or to get in because they don’t want to miss all that lovely capital growth they keep hearing about (the FOMO – Fear Of Missing Out – syndrome), they’re buying well after the boom started.</p>
<p>Many investors buy real estate at the peak of the cycle. Worse, some buy after the peak.</p>
<p>People are still out there bidding up prices at Sydney auctions, driven by the FOMO syndrome, unaware that the peak has passed and Sydney’s boom is fading.</p>
<p>It means that fundamentally they are paying too much and destroying their chances of maximizing capital growth.</p>
<p>No one ever got rich following the herd. Some have succeeded by leading the herd but the truly successful people are those who run in the opposite direction to the herd.</p>
<p>People love the comfort of the pack. They would rather be part of a herd stampeding towards a cliff, than detach and run in the opposite direction, towards safety and potential prosperity.</p>
<p>Because of the power of the herd mentality and the FOMO syndrome, most people buy when prices are high.</p>
<p>When the market is down, they stay out of the market. They’ll get back in when they read that the herd is running again.</p>
<p>Crazy stuff. </p>
<p>Right now, the Perth market is down. I’ve been suggesting to people it’s a great time to consider buying there. The Perth market, which was strong in 2011 and 2012, peaked early in 2013.</p>
<p>The heat has long since evaporated from that market, there’s no competition from other buyers, prices have eased off and the buying is good.</p>
<p>You just have to believe that the Western Australian economy has a future and that the Perth property market will rise again.</p>
<p>Taking a long-term view, Perth is a strong market with a great track record. Its 10-year capital growth record is the strongest among the state and territory capital cities, much better than Sydney’s or Melbourne’s.</p>
<p>It has a history of strong population growth and a buoyant economy boosted by its links to the resources sector. It’s currently struggling but that won’t last. </p>
<p>Perth has also shown itself to be resilient during periods of downturn. I don’t expect any major price decline in the current phase, with the exception of oversupplied inner-city apartment markets which should be avoided.</p>
<p>While awaiting recovery in the Perth market, the best strategy to maximise capital growth prospects is to follow the infrastructure trail. Find a location primed to benefit from spending on new infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure, and well-linked to major jobs nodes.</p>
<p>Locations with those qualities include the precincts around Rockingham, Fremantle, Midland and Forrestfield.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The Perth property market will rise again: Terry Ryder

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The outer Sydney land market is now in a strong growth phase, after being in a downturn for the best part of a decade. Rising land development in Outer Sydney has been driven by improved affordability, improved land availability, and improved transport infrastructure provision.</span></p>
<p>We have <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">profiled the various indicators relating to demand, dwelling and lot supply, and prices, in the outer Sydney land market, with a focus on the north west and south west corridors, as well as the central coast. The regions are defined as follows:</span></p>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">North West </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(The Hills Shire, Blacktown and Penrith LGAs)</span><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">South West </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(Wollondilly, Camden, Campbelltown and Liverpool LGAs)</span>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Central Coast (Gosford and Wyong LGAs).</span>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;">STOCK DEFICIENCY</p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Very low new dwelling completions between 2006/07 and 2011/12 saw a sizeable dwelling deficiency emerge in the Sydney market by June 2012. The combination of dwelling deficiency and improved affordability via low interest rates has been the key driver of the upturn in Sydney residential prices and demand for new housing. Completions have grown from a low of 18,400 dwellings in 2011/12 to 35,200 dwellings in 2014/15. While significant growth has occurred in high density dwelling commencements  </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">which rose by 123% in this time, new separate house starts have also increased by a sizeable 57% from 8,000 houses to 12,500 houses in the same period. This has been met by strong population growth, as New South Wales benefits from a strong, albeit easing, net overseas migration inflow, and a record low net interstate migration outflow, which has sustained the dwelling deficiency in Sydney despite rising supply. </span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.12.22%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click here</span></a></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.12.22%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.13.58%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.13.58%20AM.png" alt="" width="757" height="487"></p>
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<p><span>DEMAND </span></p>
<p><span>Population Growth </span></p>
<p><span>Greater Sydney’s population growth slowed from 49,100 persons per annum over 1996–2001, to 30,700 persons per annum over 2001–2006 as a result of slowing net overseas migration and larger net interstate migration outflows. The impact was felt in Outer Sydney, with Inner and Middle Sydney population growth remaining largely unchanged. </span></p>
<p><span>Population growth recovered to 70,600 persons per annum over 2007–2011 as both net overseas migration boomed and net interstate outflows moderated, with Inner and Middle Sydney accounting for the majority of this increase. </span></p>
<p><span>Population growth has continued to strengthen over 2011 to 2015 to an estimated 79,200 persons per annum, with Outer Sydney now accounting for the larger share of the increase, are driving the emerging recovery in the broadhectare land market. </span></p>
<p><span>Greenfield development </span></p>
<p><span>Infill development of new houses can take place as knock downs, as well as new houses being built on infill or brownfield sites. The level of infill activity generally moves in line with the cycle, however it is significantly more stable than demand for greenfield houses being constrained by the more limited availability of sites. </span></p>
<p><span>As a result, any upturns in new house demand are accommodated by the more plentiful greenfield land. Over the 2001 to 2015 period, greenfield land is estimated to have accommodated around 44% of Sydney’s new house demand, being as low as 22% (in 2009) and as high as 70% (in 2001). Greenfield land is estimated to be accommodating around 55% of new houses in 2014/15. </span></p>
<p><span>House affordability </span></p>
<p><span>Housing affordability, as measured by mortgage repayments at the prevailing variable interest rate on 75% of a median priced home in Sydney as a percentage of average household disposable income for New South Wales, has averaged 33% over the twenty two years to 2014/15 (Chart 3). </span></p>
<p><span>The upturn in Sydney prices was initiated as interest </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rates fell and the affordability ratio moved below the long term average. However, subsequent price rises drove further demand and price growth, with mortgage repayments on a median priced home of 37.7% of household disposable income at June 2015, currently worse than the long term average and approaching some of the worst levels recorded in 2004 and 2008. Further price rises will put house prices increasingly under pressure, particularly if interest rates also rise. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.15.56%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.15.56%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.17.14%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.17.14%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Land affordability</span></p>
<p><span>The key to the upturn in the Sydney land market has been the improved affordability of new houses relative to the increasing median house price. Through the middle of the 2000s, the ratio of land prices to house prices, or alternatively the premium of buying a new house over an established house in Outer Sydney was at a worse level than in the 1990s and early 2000s.</span></p>
<p><span>However, the price of land relative to established housing in Outer Sydney has improved from 72% in 2005 to 52% in 2015—better than the late 1990s average. Conversely, the median new home cost is now slightly below established house median prices. </span></p>
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<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.19.07%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span><span><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.19.07%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>SUPPLY</span></p>
<p><span>Land Production</span></p>
<p><span>Lot production was extremely low in the 2006 to 2010 period, with Outer Sydney producing just 1,900 lots on average over this timeframe.</span></p>
<p><span>Since the upturn, lot production in Outer Sydney has surged, reaching 6,000 lots in 2013/14 and is estimated 4,500 to have risen to 8,100 lots over 2014/15, which 4,000 represents a 35% increase.</span></p>
<p><span>Over the long term, North West Sydney (The Hills Shire, Blacktown, and Penrith LGAs) has generally accommodated 48% of lot production in Outer Sydney.<br> In comparison, South West Sydney (Liverpool, Camden and Campbelltown LGAs) has accommodated around 36%, and the Central Coast (Gosford and</span></p>
<p><span>Wyong LGAs) has accounted for 13% (Chart 5). More recently, the limited new lot supply elsewhere means that Outer Sydney lot production is now roughly evenly split between North West and South West Sydney. </span></p>
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<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.21.35%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.21.35%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Lot Size</span></p>
<p><span>The median size of new lots in Outer Sydney has been falling since 2000, from over 700 square metres to below 500 square metres for the first time in 2013/14. </span></p>
<p><span>While lot sizes remain low in a long term sense, there has been a small increase in lot sizes in 2014/15 as developers increasingly serve the upgrader market as price points move beyond the realm of first home buyers. </span></p>
<p><span>The strong demand for land in Sydney means that developers are producing more profitable larger lots to target the upgrader market. Meanwhile, the first home buyer market is increasingly being serviced by the established home and apartment market. In new estates, the most affordable housing is being provided in integrated developments rather than small lots.</span></p>
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<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.24.37%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>PRICES</span></p>
<p><span>There was a correction in both land and house prices (as well as new house activity), through the latter half of the 2000s. Between 2005 and 2009, the Outer Sydney median land price fell by 10.5%, or a 20% decline in real terms. </span></p>
<p><span>With Outer Sydney median land prices over 2009 to 2013 remaining relatively flat (+4% increase in total), Outer Sydney house price growth returned (+25% in the same period), and land affordability improved back to 1990s levels. </span></p>
<p><span>Further strong growth in Outer Sydney median house prices in 2014 and 2015 (totalling +31%) has taken the median house price to an estimated $650,000 at June 2015. Growth in land prices has also returned although still remains below that of house prices (+21%) indicating a median of $335,000 by June 2015. This lower growth in land prices has allowed the cost of new houses to become more affordable relative to established houses and enabled upgraders to more easily sell their existing dwelling to upsize to a new home. </span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.27.44%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.27.44%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>Angie Zigomanis is senior manager, <span id="0.8280794406309724" class="highlight">BIS</span> <span id="0.5401298783253878" class="highlight">Shrapnel</span> and can be contacted <a href="mailto:azigomanis@bis.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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Strong growth for outer Sydney land market: Angie Zigomanis

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<p>Channel Seven program chief Angus Ross has revealed that a new series of House Rules, already filmed and originally slated to screen in late 2015, won’t go to air this year.</p>
<p>The move comes as part of a major shake-up at the network, which will also see them dumping Million Dollar Minute from its afternoon time slot.</p>
<p>Its program chief Angus Ross acknowledged that the next House Rules would struggle competing against The Block in the planned 7.30pm timeslot.</p>
<p>"We've got a series [completed] but I don’t think the genre matching that has occurred this year has helped anyone," he told News Ltd.</p>
<p>"Do I think House Rules versus The Block is going to be a good outcome for us or for audiences? No. I don’t think it would be a win for anyone."</p>
<p>The Mumbrella website wrote o<span style="font-size: 12.1599998474121px; line-height: 1.3em;">ne of the issues that has </span><span style="font-size: 12.1599998474121px; line-height: 1.3em;">annoyed media buyers was the big networks putting similar shows up against each other.</span><span style="font-size: 12.1599998474121px; line-height: 1.3em;">  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.1599998474121px; line-height: 1.3em;">In recent years Seven and Nine have faced off with The Voice vs X Factor, House Rules vs Reno Rumble and The Hotplate vs Restaurant Revolution.</span></p>
<p>Mumbrella advised at last week’s revenue announcement Nine’s sales boss Peter Wiltshire acknowledged this had hit the bottom line for the network.</p>
<p>“(In quarter four) Nine’s ratings were impacted by the two leading networks programming formats being in the same genre head to head.</p>
<p>"To some extent we were our own worst enemy as we competed aggressively,” said Wiltshire.</p>
<p>“This caused pressure on audiences on free-to-air TV and specifically Nine’s share of that audience.</p>
<p>"The size and magnitude of these changes coincided with advertisers moving to shorter term buying decisions and immediate ratings history to support their actions. </p>
<p>"This clearly worked against us as buyers worked to Q3 ratings in allocating Q4 revenues.”</p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

House Rules won't take on The Block Octagonal

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<p><span>The warehouse residence at 21 Joy Street, South Yarra sold at weekend Marshall White auction.</span></p>
<p>It was a <a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/21-joy-street-south-yarra/Property-Details-buy-residential-9294720" target="_blank">one-bedroom warehouse-style </a>house once owned by abstract artist Yvonne Audette .</p>
<p><span>It fetched $1,303,000.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It last sold at $371,500 in 2008 and before than in 1992 at $223,000.</span></p>
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South Yarra warehouse home sold at $1,303,000

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<p><span>The fashion designer Natalie Coyle and her husband Scott Sheezel, who run Tilkah boutiques around Melbourne, have sold in McKinnon.</span></p>
<p>Their three-bedroom property at <a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/3-lysbeth-street-mckinnon/Property-Details-buy-residential-9288760" target="_blank">3 Lysbeth Street </a>sold ahead of its scheduled August 29 auction.</p>
<p><span>Buxton’s Simon Wood secured the $1,705,000 sale.</span></p>
<p><span>It last sold at $630,000 in 2006.</span></p>
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Designer McKinnon cottage sells at $1,705,000

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<p>A Chinese investor has paid $12 million for a four level, 930sqm Queen Street property in Melbourne’s CBD, sold as a vacant possession.</p>
<p>The property, 338 Queen Street, offers ground level retail and three upper floors of office space.  </p>
<p>Savills CBD sales director Clinton Baxter<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> said the property had sold on a land rate of $41,379 sqm, adding the buyer</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> had flown into Melbourne for one day to view the property. </span></p>
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

$12 million paid for Queen Street, Melbourne CBD property

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<p class="first-para">GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The median house in Sydney surpassed the million dollar mark in July and is now valued at $1,017,500. In the quarter ending July, the Sydney median house value grew an astonishing 7.58%. The average quarterly growth rate of all other capital city house markets was just 0.92%.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_1_Capital_Growth_Summary.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_1_Capital_Growth_Summary.jpg" alt="" width="723" height="464"></p>
<p>The annual rate of growth for Melbourne houses was 9.07 per cent, bringing the median house value to $683,000. Growth for the month was significantly lower, at just 0.13 per cent. </p>
<p>Brisbane houses performed steadily in the year to July, however performance was down in the unit market due to an overhang of stock. Commencement of the Queens Wharf development in the heart of the Brisbane CBD (a complex which will include 2,000 new apartments) is likely to place further downward pressure on the growth of Brisbane units. </p>
<p>The worst performing areas in the year to July were once again the resource states. Perth houses contracted 4.34 per cent while Darwin unit values dropped 6.41 per cent. </p>
<p>Table 1 presents the market performance summary for July.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Table_1_July_Stats_Summary2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Table_1_July_Stats_Summary2.jpg" alt="" width="818" height="716"></p>
<p><span><strong>A Note on the Resource Markets</strong></span></p>
<p>A number of commodity prices have tumbled in the last year. The iron ore price averaged just AUD $69 per dry metric tonne over the month of July, which is a 13.88 per cent reduction from the previous month. </p>
<p>Australian Thermal Coal remained steady over the last month, averaging AUD $85.75 per pound. However, this is a significant reduction from the peak price in 2008 when coal averaged over AUD $200. </p>
<p>World Bank data shows that resources boomed in the early 2000’s, following a long period of low valuation between the 1970’s and the 1990’s. While it appears that commodities are in a correction period, values have not fallen so drastically that prices are below what they were a decade ago. </p>
<p>In response to the decline in commodity prices, many suppliers, including BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, chose to increase efficiency and cost cutting as opposed to reducing supply. This is likely due to larger producers taking advantage of the fall in commodity values to pressure smaller suppliers out of the market. </p>
<p>In line with cost cutting, thousands of mining positions have been terminated across South Australia, the Northern Territory and Western Australia. This, coupled with the completion of mining construction projects, is exacerbating economic downturn in the resource states.</p>
<p>Deterioration may be slightly offset in the short term due to the devaluation of the Yuan, which will make Chinese steel exports more competitive and drive demand for Australian Iron Ore, an input in steel production.</p>
<p>Commodity prices have a strong lead lag effect on dwelling values in the resource state capitals. As commodity prices stabilise at significantly lower levels, the Darwin and Perth dwelling markets are also stabilising.</p>
<p>To put the current growth cycle in perspective, I have provided the historical House Price Index (HPI)<a href="https://blog.residex.com.au/2015/08/28/property-market-update-3/#footnote-1"><span>[1]</span></a>data for Darwin and Perth in Graphs 2 and 3.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_2_Perth_HPI.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_2_Perth_HPI.jpg" alt="" width="816" height="523"></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_3_Darwin_HPI.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_3_Darwin_HPI.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p>The graphs show that, like commodity values, dwellings in the resource capitals are no longer in a stage of rapid growth as they were between 2000 and 2008. </p>
<p>The Perth and Darwin markets are currently in a correction period, which is indicated by the downward movement of the HPI. However, putting the dwelling positions into a larger historical context shows they have not drastically collapsed. </p>
<p>During the mining boom, the Perth market saw annualised growth rates as high as 40 per cent in 2006. However, these growth rates were met with corrections as large as 10 per cent in 2009. The end of the mining boom has restored growth cycles that are much more subdued than these levels. </p>
<p><span><strong>The New Normal – Ownership and Lifestyle in the Age of Population Convergence</strong></span></p>
<p>Growth in the Sydney and Melbourne markets have concerned lending institution regulators, and hopeful investors and homeowners.</p>
<p>As discussed in previous newsletters, there is little evidence attributing foreign investment and tax structures to the surge in property values. I have not found sufficient data to argue rigorously that these forces are driving up prices. </p>
<p>There is another force that I believe may be attributed to house and unit value increases – particularly in Sydney: the concept of population convergence. </p>
<p>In 2005, American urban studies theorist Richard Florida built a case for population convergence. Measuring economic production, levels of innovation and population, Florida found that population and economic activity were converging to a few large cities around the world. </p>
<p>Evidence suggests that Sydney could be one of these cities. This would account for the positive returns on Sydney property over the last three years, which according to Residex data has averaged a rapid 3.05 per cent per quarter. </p>
<p>At the time of Florida’s study in 2005, Sydney was one of just 60 cities around the world that had a population of approximately five million or more. Using World Intellectual Property Organization and U.S. Patent and Trademark data, Florida also found that Sydney was one of just 20 cities around the world to be fostering significant levels of innovation. </p>
<p>Population density in Sydney has increased approximately 16 per cent between 2000 and 2012, according to data from Charting Transport. Increased density and the presence of more investors in the property market has led to an increase in the supply of units over houses. From September 2012, unit commencements have regularly outperformed housing builds, which can be seen in Graph 4. This further implies that most development is occurring in urban, densely populated areas.</p>
<p><strong>Graph 4: Sydney Dwelling Commencements</strong></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_4_Dwelling_Commencements_Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_4_Dwelling_Commencements_Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="752" height="479"></p>
<p>Population convergence theory could explain the growth in the house and unit markets, and signal that such growth is likely to continue. This is not unprecedented. Values and rents have skyrocketed in cities around the world, including Singapore, New York, London and Tokyo over the last few decades.</p>
<p>High rates of property growth are not just reflected in a desire to be near amenities, culture and cosmopolitan environments. Density also brings productivity advantages through economies of scale. It increases connectivity and knowledge sharing. In turn, these things create more jobs and attract a higher population, reinforcing population convergence.</p>
<p>In response to higher density living, many people have begun to adjust their standards of living in Sydney. However, a level of development resistance could further increase prices, such as a court ruling earlier this year which will see the minimum approval unit size in Sydney increase by 30 per cent<a href="https://blog.residex.com.au/2015/08/28/property-market-update-3/#footnote-2"><span>[2]</span></a>.</p>
<p>The methods inhibiting development are wide and diverse and therefore difficult to fully quantify; the prevention of new development can come from environmental regulation and community resistance.</p>
<p>These forces prohibit development of popular space and undermine innovations used to adapt to higher density, such as the micro-apartment movement. Resistance to development can also preserve a higher standard of living in Sydney, which – for those who can afford it – is clearly in demand. </p>
<p>Assuming Florida was right in his theory of population convergence, Sydney could see strong house value increases over the next few quarters before stabilising at a level that even the most wealthy and mobile will find excessive. </p>
<p><em>Eliza Owen is market analyst for Onthehouse.com.au and can be contacted <a href="https://investors.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em><a href="https://investors.onthehouse.com.au/"><br></a></p>
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Sydney house median passes $1 million mark: Onthehouse's Eliza Owen

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<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">I'm in the midst of what will ultimately be my most comprehensive research project to date, and henceforth will aim to share a few high level viewpoints and findings on this blog page along the way.</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are of course a multitide of factors which impact and drive housing markets ranging from macroeconomic drivers to monetary policy, and from consumption patterns to construction rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But for today let's look briefly and specifically at Australia's demographics.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Population pyramid</span></strong></div>
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<div>Looking below at an Australian population pyramid - which for the purposes of this blog post I have flipped on its side - representing the estimated resident population as at 2014, we can immediately observe a couple of salient points.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, although Australia does have an ageing population, in part thanks to our immigration program the demographic profile of Australia is markedly different to those found in some other developed countries, and considerably less "top heavy".<br><br>With skilled migration in particular often having favoured those in the 21-30 age bracket, there is presently a relative dearth of people in my age bracket, that being the 31 to 38 year old cohort (see Point A on the below chart).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/PP1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/PP1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Depending upon your preferred information source the average or "typical" age of first homebuyers in Australia now ranges anywhere from 31 to 34 years of age, and that figure could potentially levitate further due to a combination of lifestyle factors and increasingly stretched deposit gaps in the two major capital cities.<br><br>Of course, an "average" covers a wide range of ages and strains of buyer, but recent data has suggested that a comfortable majority of first homebuyers are now in their 30s or 40s.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investors in the ascendancy...for now</span></strong><br><br>
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<div>The shape of the first chart above may therefore go some of the way to explaining the comparatively low volumes of homebuyers in the market through this cycle, with investors dominant to an an unprecedented degree, particularly in the largest capital city markets.<br><br>Naturally other factors have played a role here, particularly looser monetary policy which has encouraged those with existing equity generated through housing market ownership to redeploy it in a faithful manner.<br><br>Not only is there a relative paucity of 31 to 38 year olds where we might expect to find the bulk of first homebuyers, there is also an evident weak spot in the traditional "big spender" cohort.<br><br>Which is to say, there is a proportionate lull in the number of executives, senior managers and business owners commonly aged from around 45 to 55 (refer to Point B on the above chart).</div>
<br><div>While the wave of first homebuyers predominantly impacts dwelling prices at the entry level, it is those in these middle working years that are the heaviest spenders in the housing market, making their most material dwelling purchases at that stage in life.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see in the graphic above, the demographic pyramid does not present too kindly in respect of either cohort at the current time...and nor is it likely to do so for some years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Looking swell (2021-2027)</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, rolling the chart packs forward by calendar year we find that it is not until around around 2021 that the number of potential first homebuyers reaches a critical mass which might be considered compelling, with the number of 31 to 38 year olds in particular mushrooming to a total of more than 3.1 million (from around only 2.6 million in 2014).<br><br>In the period through to 2027, that number is projected to have expanded further still to more than 3.3 million. </div>
<div>
<br>As this effective "spending wave" passes through 2021, therefore, the demographic factors for Australian housing market growth look to be particularly favourable from that year until around 2027 inclusive.<br><br>As you can see in the second chart below, not only will the total population of Australia have swelled significantly by 2021 to around 26.5 million, the clamour of potential purchasers in the 31 to 38 year old age bracket (Point A below) really begins to amplify.<br><br>Furthermore there will be a coinciding wave of Australians approaching the latter half of their fourth decade (Point B below), the time of life at which they are likely to make their most consequential home purchases. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/PP2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/PP2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>This isn't to suggest here that the demographics for homebuyer activity then deteriorate after 2027 as such, rather that the projected figures then plateau for a period of time and thereby stop improving so impressively.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">City winners and losers</span></strong><br><br>Drilling down to the next statistical level, it can be found that from around 2021 the demographic waves will become very favourable for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and and <span style="text-decoration: underline;">particularly</span> Perth (assuming the superfluity of mining boom migrants opts to stay put, and interstate migration away from Western Australia doesn't begin to bite).<br><br>Hampered by an interstate migration "brain drain" these demographic waves do not suggest a favourable environment for the Adelaide housing market, with barely any improvement discernible over the same time horizon.<br><br>Meanwhile the latest projections suggest that Tasmania's housing market demographics could potentially worsen quite appreciably in the years leading up to 2035, although such longer term projections by their very nature tend to be less than reliable.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dwelling starts</span></strong>
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<div>
<br>While this is a blog post predominantly concerned with demographics, it's worth considering for a moment how the above findings tie in with the dwelling construction cycle.<br><br>Two of the "X-factors" which have impacted this housing market cycle have been an explosion in the volume of Asian capital invested in the Australian market and a hitherto unseen shift towards multi-unit construction.<br><br>Although 2015 will likely prove to be the market peak for dwelling starts, dwelling <em>completions</em> will remain elevated for the next few years.<br><br>In combination with a slowing rate of population growth, this will be one of the factors together with an erosion of yields which will eventually bring the current growth cycle to its end.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/HIA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/HIA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Since natural population growth and net overseas migration will take some time to absorb the excess dwelling stock, this also points broadly towards 2021-2027 as a likely period for housing market growth.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/AW1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/31/AW1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Long run demographics are healthy</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the latest data suggests that over the short term Australia's populaton growth is likely to continue to slow, over the very long run the demographics of Australia are exceptionally compelling, with the population potentially set to almost double by over the next half century.<br><br>Also note that immigration is projected to keep the headcount in the potential homebuyer age brackets expanding to heights that agents and other industry participants can only dream of today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/PP3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/PP3.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>With life expectancies increasing there will evidently be a greater number of residents living well beyond the traditional retirement date in the decades ahead, although in time we might expect to see more folk working beyond the traditional retirement age too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart above implies that with the demand for capital city property likely to approximately double over the very long run, the likelihood of capital city land values in the landlocked inner- and middle-ring suburbs remaining anything less than singularly expensive appears quite remote.<br><br>Of course, it isn't possible to forecast or time markets so accurately, but over the near term there could easily be a relatively weak period ahead for housing markets as dwelling completions overtake demand, before a potentially strong rebound running broadly between 2021 and 2027. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The most interesting and useful findings are those which incorporate the shifting composition of net migration at the suburb level, though I don't post detailed suburb research on my blog. </div>
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<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Making waves in the Aussie housing market: Pete Wargent

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<p>Victoria had a clearance rate of <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">78% this weekend, up from 73% last weekend and 73% this weekend last year. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">A total of 941 auctions reported to the REIV according to chief executive officer Enzo Raimondo who said of the 738 sold and 203 being passed in, 85 of those on a vendor bid.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"The suburbs with top auction sales in the year to date were Reservoir with 387 auctions followed by Glen Waverley with 306 auctions and Richmond with 298 auctions," he said.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-31%20at%2010.20.45%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-31%20at%2010.20.45%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
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<p> For more information on weekend statistics, click <a href="/news">here</a>.</p>
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Victorian weekend clearance rate up: REIV

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<div>It's set to be a monester week of data releases ahead, from tomorrow in particular, but before that a quick look at the weekend auction results.</div>
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<em>Core-Logic-RP Data</em> reported its preliminary auction stats which showed stronger initial results than one year ago in Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth.</div>
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<div>Sydney recorded another vigorous result of 78.1 per cent, which was stronger than the final result for last week of 76.2 per cent, but for the first time this year was below the preliminary clearance rate from one year ago at 79.9 per cent.</div>
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<div>Sydney's incredible run which has seen house prices rising at a pace of well over <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/residex-astonishing-sydney-boom" target="_blank">20 per cent per annum</a> has continued right the way through until the final week before the spring selling season.</div>
<br><div>The result of 78.1 per cent this week will doubtlesss lead to some premature extrapolation, but there are a few reasons why the Sydney market probably has a bit of a way to run yet before it runs out of puff.</div>
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<div>Firstly while auction volumes have been tracking at the highest level we have seen, total listings are still moderate, and less than those of Melbourne and even Perth.</div>
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<div>Secondly, in the inner- and middle-ring suburbs that matter, clearance rates are still tracking at exceptionally high levels.</div>
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<div><span><span>According to <em>CoreLogic-RP Data</em> the Eastern Suburbs (87.6 per cent), North Sydney &amp; Hornsby (86.3 per cent) and the Inner West (85.1 per cent) had the strongest clearance rates, followed by Blacktown (84.6 per cent), City &amp; Inner South (82.8 per cent) and the Northern Beaches (81.5 per cent).</span></span></div>
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<div><span><span>Although these are only preliminary results, traditionally it is said that results above 80 per cent point towards a "boom time" property market.</span></span></div>
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<div><span><span>And thirdly, John McGrath ignited some debate earlier this year when he claimed that Sydney's inner suburbs will be "hot forever".</span></span></div>
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<div><span><span>While this obviously isn't set in stone, simple geometry tells you that within the inner 6km there are only 113 square kilometres of land for which there is huge demand. </span></span></div>
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<div><span><span>Nothing is certain, of course, but personally I wouldn't bet against it. </span></span></div>
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<div><span><span>It's precisely what has happened in prime central London over the last couple of decades. </span></span></div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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