One of North Sydney's best-known commercial buildings could become hundreds of new homes, with insurance giant Zurich Australia lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to transform 5 Blue Street into a mixed-use residential development above North Sydney Station.

Rather than demolishing the existing building and starting again, Zurich is proposing an adaptive reuse project that would convert the landmark office building into a 15-level residential development delivering 62 apartments, 86 affordable co-living dwellings, activated retail and significant upgrades to the Blue Street Plaza.

The proposal reflects a growing trend of commercial property owners repositioning ageing office assets into residential housing as Sydney grapples with housing supply shortages and changing workplace demand.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bba7d12-06dc-4375-aad7-238c94b21ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.42.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NJl5oLAEBDGuPmY3RnyliKODjMc8lvRh" />

Located directly above North Sydney Metro and train station, the 3,051 sqm site occupies one of the most strategically positioned parcels of land on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Designed by fjcstudio, the proposal seeks to retain and adapt much of the existing structure while creating a contemporary residential address that better connects with the public domain surrounding North Sydney Station.

The application proposes two basement levels, ground floor retail, affordable co-living accommodation across the podium levels, and apartments above, while preserving and enhancing the publicly accessible Blue Street Plaza.

Rather than pursuing maximum apartment numbers, Zurich has opted for a housing mix heavily weighted towards larger owner-occupier residences.

The proposal includes 62 build-to-sell apartments comprising 12 one-bedroom, 19 two-bedroom, 29 three-bedroom apartments and two premium penthouses. It also incorporates 86 affordable co-living dwellings, which would be managed in perpetuity by a Community Housing Provider.

That balance between traditional apartments and affordable housing reflects the NSW Government's push to increase housing diversity around major transport infrastructure.

The proposal has been lodged concurrently with a rezoning application, with Zurich arguing the site is ideally positioned to support additional housing given its immediate proximity to public transport, employment and services.

"The proposal aims to respond to the housing challenges facing Sydney through the delivery of diverse housing types in a highly accessible location," the design report by fjcstudio states. It also seeks to improve pedestrian amenity through upgrades to Blue Street Plaza while creating a high-performing residential building that responds to the surrounding context.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36082e15-c636-4481-bb68-5a5f6443fe39" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.41.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5P6VD.fvmqjQfIG3TWWMRXxQWiQBjeFB" />

Rather than replacing the commercial building, fjcstudio has developed a design that works with the existing structural framework above the rail corridor, an approach that significantly reduces demolition while allowing the site to be repositioned as a mixed-use residential precinct.

The existing structural constraints have informed much of the building's design, including its relationship with Blue Street and surrounding public spaces.

The building has been designed as a slender tower rising above a clearly defined podium, with vertically expressed façades intended to reduce the perceived bulk while reinforcing North Sydney's emerging skyline.

According to fjcstudio, the architectural language responds directly to the surrounding commercial towers while maintaining a finer grain expression more closely aligned with the neighbouring Lavender Bay streetscape.

The tower incorporates articulated façade elements, landscaped podium edges and recessed upper levels to soften its appearance and improve pedestrian amenity below.

A significant component of the proposal is the revitalisation of Blue Street Plaza.

The existing public space has long served as one of the primary pedestrian connections between North Sydney Station, Greenwood Plaza and Blue Street, yet its role is expected to become even more important following the opening of Sydney Metro.

Zurich's proposal seeks to strengthen that role by improving landscaping, introducing new retail frontages, enhancing pedestrian permeability and creating more active edges throughout the day and evening.

Ground floor retail would wrap the plaza, while separate residential and co-living entries have been designed to improve wayfinding without reducing street activation.

Landscape design has been integrated throughout the podium and public realm, softening what is currently one of the most heavily urbanised parts of North Sydney.

&nbsp;

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fjcstudio has carefully oriented apartments towards Sydney Harbour and the CBD while using privacy blades and articulated façades to minimise overlooking between neighbouring buildings.

Large framed openings along the western elevation maximise harbour outlooks, while the eastern apartments have been angled towards the south-east to improve privacy from neighbouring development.

The project forms part of the continuing transformation of North Sydney from a predominantly commercial CBD into a genuine mixed-use city centre.

Since the completion of Victoria Cross Metro Station, developers have increasingly shifted their attention towards residential projects capable of leveraging the area's unparalleled transport connectivity.

&nbsp;

FiveX recently lodged plans for a 61-storey, 490-apartment tower that would become one of the tallest residential buildings in North Sydney if approved.

Aqualand continues to expand its Lower North Shore presence following the completion of AURA on Walker Street and its recent St Leonards and Roseville proposals.

Developers are also progressing projects throughout Walker Street, Miller Street and the Victoria Cross precinct as demand for well-located owner-occupier apartments continues to strengthen.

Joel Robinson

First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station

Busy developer Aqualand Prestige has formally taken the next step in its expansion across Sydney's Lower North Shore, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for its long-held Archer Street site in Chatswood.

The application covers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/51-55-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">51-55 Archer Street</a>, a 1,767 sqm amalgamated site on the eastern edge of the Chatswood CBD, where the developer is seeking approval for a 45-level mixed-use tower delivering 114 apartments, including a significant affordable housing component, alongside retail, commercial space and six basement levels of parking.

The SSDA marks the latest milestone for a project Aqualand has been quietly progressing over the past two years. The developer first secured the site for its Aqualand Prestige platform before undertaking an alternative design excellence process with PTW Architects, ultimately avoiding a formal design competition through the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The proposal has evolved considerably from Aqualand's original concept. The revised scheme has been designed around larger owner-occupier product, with an unusually high proportion of three and four-bedroom apartments, targeting the more affluent buyer profile, and downsizer, emerging across the North Shore.

<img alt="Archer St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0171204c-5811-41b5-9b09-2335d1b7c3d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%208.52.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6YTuxfq.puZo7k2wbfgemcO5K3QfXYGQ" />

The 114-apartment mix comprises six studios, 27 one-bedroom apartments, 18 two-bedroom apartments, 50 three-bedroom residences and 13 four-bedroom homes. A quarter of the building will be dedicated to affordable housing, well above the mandated 15 per cent&nbsp;

PTW has structured the building vertically, with affordable housing across levels one to six, premium apartments through levels seven to 31, duplex skyhomes on klevels 32 to 43, a penthouse on level 44, and a rooftop plant level above. Six basement levels will provide resident parking and servicing.

The tower is proposed to reach approximately 154 metres, placing it among a growing collection of residential high-rises transforming Chatswood's skyline.

Rather than competing purely on height, PTW says the design has been driven by creating a slimmer tower capable of delivering significantly larger apartments.

"The primary objective of this project was to create a distinctive building that stands out from the recently approved or built structures in the Chatswood area," the design report states, noting the structural efficiency allows greater investment into apartment quality and resident amenity.

Residents would have access to more than 450 sqm of communal open space including landscaped gardens, swimming pool, rooftop entertaining areas, fitness spaces, community gardens, children's play areas and barbecue facilities.

A major focus of the design has been the public domain.

The ground plane has been opened up through landscaped terraces inspired by Willoughby's sandstone ridges, with native planting, public seating, artwork, retail activation and a series of gathering spaces intended to soften what has traditionally been a hard commercial streetscape.

The landscape strategy references Blue Gum forests once common throughout the area, while incorporating Indigenous storytelling, public art and lighting installations to strengthen the connection to Country.

Chatswood has been one of Sydney's busiest apartment markets over the past 12 months, with a steady pipeline of both new project launches and fresh development applications.

Hyecorp recently launched Celine, a 122-apartment development just along Archer Street, while Changfa and Huirong Group are progressing The Anderson, an 84-apartment project on Anderson Street.

Develotek recently secured approval for a 101-apartment tower on Pacific Highway, while Tian An LFD received the green light for Hammond Greens, its apartment development on the edge of the Chatswood Bowling Club.

Commercial property developer FiveX is also making its move into the residential market. Last month it lodged plans for a 61-storey tower with 490 apartments, which, if approved, would become one of the tallest residential buildings in Chatswood.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-targets-chatswood-skyline-with-61-storey-tower-after-north-sydney-plans">First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans</a>

Aqualand is also expanding its development pipeline following the launch of its luxury residential brand, Aqualand Prestige. The developer has delivered a string of high-end apartment projects across Sydney's affluent suburbs over the past decade, most recently AURA by Aqualand on Walker Street in North Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292863]

It has since quietly assembled its next wave of projects.

Earlier this year Aqualand launched Boronia in Roseville, a boutique 111-apartment development on Larkin Street. The project is one of the first significant apartment developments to launch in the suburb ahead of what is expected to become one of Sydney's most active new housing precincts under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, which allow greater density around train stations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152095 project_image_fid=373685]

The developer has also lodged plans for a two-tower, 413-apartment development on Herbert Street in nearby St Leonards, further strengthening its presence across the Lower North Shore.

Beyond that, Aqualand remains behind the final stage of Barangaroo, where plans will deliver a five-hectare mixed-use precinct comprising new homes, retail, hospitality and community facilities, alongside a new Metro entrance and more than two hectares of public open space, completing the Barangaroo precinct.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/central-barangaroo-development-takes-big-step-with-concept-proposal-approval">Central Barangaroo development takes big step with concept proposal approval</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-aqualand-joins-st-leonards-apartment-party">First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party</a> 
&nbsp;

&nbsp;

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First look: Aqualand pushes ahead with Chatswood apartment tower as SSDA lodged for Archer Street

Mass timber is becoming an increasingly popular construction material in apartment developments, but Adelaide developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> is taking the approach a step further.

At its new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flowe-bowden-18-gibson-street-bowden-sa-5007">Flowe Bowden</a> development, the exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) structure isn't just about reducing the building's environmental footprint. It also forms the foundation of a broader wellness strategy, influencing everything from indoor air quality and natural materials to the way residents move through and experience the building.

The 115-apartment mixed-use development, designed by Melbourne-based architecture practice Fieldwork, will occupy a prominent island site opposite Bowden Village Reserve, combining one, two and three-bedroom apartments with retail and a dedicated wellness destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375528]

Wellness isn't confined to a gym or shared resident facility at Flowe. Instead, Fieldwork embedded the concept into the building itself.

The development has been split into two residential wings connected by a naturally ventilated central breezeway, replacing traditional enclosed corridors with open-air walkways that improve natural light, encourage cross ventilation and create more opportunities for neighbourly interaction.

"Rather than treating wellness as something that only happens on the ground floor, our response integrates it throughout the building, which led us to ask what it really means to design a healthy building," Fieldwork Director Quino Holland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375531]

The building's architecture also reflects Bowden's industrial heritage. The lower podium references the area's historic brick and sandstone buildings, while the upper levels transition to exposed CLT, allowing the timber structure to become a defining feature throughout the apartments and shared spaces.

The use of mass timber sits alongside a range of sustainability initiatives, including a fully electric, gas-free design, rooftop solar and a targeted 5 Star Green Star rating.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375524]

Inside the residences, the focus remains on natural, durable materials. Blackbutt engineered timber flooring, exposed CLT ceilings, porcelain surfaces and warm timber joinery create a calming interior palette, while low-VOC finishes and responsibly sourced materials have been selected to improve indoor air quality.

Kitchens have been designed as the centrepiece of each apartment, featuring porcelain island benchtops, timber-look cabinetry and brushed steel tapware, with layouts that maximise natural light and ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375530]

The more traditional interpretation of wellness comes in the form of Level Eleven, a two-storey wellness club spanning the ground floor, mezzanine and first floor.

The facility will include a gym, yoga and reformer Pilates studios, Finnish and infrared saunas, magnesium hot and cold plunge pools, and dedicated recovery spaces. Unlike many residential wellness facilities, Level Eleven will also operate commercially, allowing the broader Bowden community to access the venue while giving residents exclusive membership benefits.

The ground floor has also been designed around everyday living. A café overlooking Bowden Village Reserve will activate the street frontage, while a bike workshop with tool storage, co-working space and dog wash has been incorporated to support daily routines and encourage interaction between residents.

"Flowe brings together my two biggest passions, creating places and creating healthier lives," Otello founder Daniel Harris said.

"We wanted to create something Adelaide hasn't seen before, a genuinely healthy building, where the way you live is lifted without even trying."

Flowe is positioned directly opposite Bowden Village Reserve and within walking distance of Bowden Railway Station and the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, placing future residents just minutes from the Adelaide CBD while remaining connected to one of the city's most established urban renewal precincts.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152022]

Otello launches wellness-focused Flowe Bowden with Adelaide-first mass timber apartment design

Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

Michael Matusik

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Well, more real estate baloney.
This time it is about first home buyers – or the lack of them.
The ABS statistics released today show that first home buyer activity, measured as the proportion of all owner-resident lending, is the lowest in 23 years.
You would have heard all about it on the news tonight or will read about in tomorrow’s papers.
But something is wrong here.
<blockquote>
The fact is, we should all question a lot more of the real estate data that is being fed to us.
</blockquote>
And like many things these days in the real estate world, it’s the figures that are incorrect.  The ‘official’ statistics are measuring only part of the whole, yet very few question the results.
In short, there is a hell of a lot of first home buying taking place.
Most first home buyers buy an established property, and in most places across Australia, first home buyer grants do not apply to established property, only new stock.  And where it does apply, it amounts to very little, and to many it isn’t worth the paper work.
So, for mine, the ABS (along with others) is not correctly corralling first home buying activity.
It is interesting to watch the property intelligentsia trying to explain the reasons for the fall in first home buyer interest, as shown in the first two charts below.
"Generation X are choosing to rent rather than buy – they are buying investment housing instead of homes for themselves – housing is unaffordable so they cannot buy – we need more grant monies"; and it goes on.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7359" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-1.jpg" alt="FHB #1"></a>
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7360" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-2.jpg" alt="FHB #2"></a>
I think the statistics are wrong.
Why wouldn’t first home buyers be buying?
<ul>
<li>Interest rates are extremely low</li>
<li>Banks are keen to lend</li>
<li>Mum and dad are practically paying for the deposit to get rid of their ‘boomerang’ adult children (at 30, one wonders if ‘children’ should really apply)</li>
<li>Yet according to the same talking heads who claim low first home buyer take-up – housing affordability is the best in over a decade</li>
<li>And to prove that point, there has been little change in the size of the average first home loan in recent years – see my third chart below</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-3.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7361" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-3.jpg" alt="FHB #3"></a>
Late last year the ABS put out a great study – sadly it comes out only every five years or so – called Housing Occupancy and Costs (catalogue number 4130.0 for those who want to read the 92 page document).  This shows that first home buyer activity is much higher than the housing finance loan data suggests.
The HOC study shows that over the past three (3) years (and importantly, covering much of the recent first home buyer slump) just short of 1 million households (988,000) bought a property across Australia.
Of the 988,000 transactions over the last three years, 36% or 355,000 were first home buyers.  Eight out of ten first home buyers (289,000 or 81%) bought a second-hand or established home.  Just 19% bought a new property or something off-plan.
My conversations with real estate agents, including those selling new stock, indicate that first home buyer activity is much higher than the low levels officially reported.
I suspect that first home buying activity is close to the historic average – something around 35% of the total owner-resident market and around 20% of the total housing market, when including investors.  This is what I am seeing on the ground; and it explains the strong sales results across much of the country over the last 12 to 18 months.
First home buyers must be taking part; otherwise those upgrading or downsizing would not be able to sell as fast or as often as they currently are.  It is first home buyers that make up a significant part of the buying audience for their established homes.
It is good to see that others, too, are starting to question the results.
I note that the RBA, in their current chart pack (June quarter), have left off first home buyers in the graph outlining loan activity across the country.  See the last chart on page 6 of <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/index" target="_blank">this</a> document.  It has been included in previous RBA charts.
Michael Pascoe, too – thinking man that he is – has also questioned the results.  See <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/first-home-buyer-statistics-not-adding-up-20140609-39sam" target="_blank">here</a>.
You should too.
The fact is, we should all question a lot more of the real estate data that is being fed to us.
The media – for the most part – aren’t interested in checking the statistics before they regurgitate them.
Much of what you read these days about property is sadly bunkum.
Ohh…….. and don’t get me started on the need for or accuracy of a daily price index or suburban median house/unit prices!
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
</body></html>

michaelmatusik-49YzLvdmNv

Have first home buyers really gone missing?

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Moody’s Analytics has announced that, given Australia’s current low interest rates, much of the country’s housing stock is at ‘fair value’ at present; with Victoria and NT already too expensive, yet Queensland, WA and SA being undervalued.
Sydney, amazingly – according to Moody’s – is just slightly overvalued.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Over-Undervaluation-of-dwelling-prices.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7562" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Over-Undervaluation-of-dwelling-prices.jpg" alt="Over Undervaluation of dwelling prices"></a>
And whilst this sounds like great news, Moody’s Analytics believes that Australia’s housing markets (with few exceptions) will become overvalued if (when) interest rates rise back to normal levels and push up mortgage repayments.
Moody’s estimates the ‘normal’ cash rate is 4.5%, being 2% higher than current levels.
But what is fair value?
How can an investor – as one could argue that for an owner-resident, value is largely an emotional thing – best determine a property’s value?
Rental returns
For mine, rental yields should really be used as the benchmark to help determine an investment property’s value.
And the 5% gross rental return – the old school marker which essentially converts to $1 in weekly rent for every $1,000 spent buying a property – is still the most accurate measure, in my opinion, to help determine investment value.
So for most investment property, when gross rental yields are under, say, 4.5%, they are overvalued.  The reverse applies for dwellings with gross rental returns over, say, 5.5%; assuming the rent is sustainable over the longer  term.
This approach, I think, should also be used much more by valuers rather than the wishy-washy comparisons made via the ValEx system or the like.
Some trends
Our <a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Matusik-Missive-5th-August-2014-How-best-to-determine-investment-value-final-full-version2.pdf" target="_blank">analysis</a> for this missive has found that:
<ul>
<li>In general, compact housing offers better investment rental returns than detached houses.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Sydney and Melbourne – for property investment – look overvalued to me.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>In contrast, Brisbane and much of SEQ, for investment, look undervalued.</li>
</ul>
End notes
I have travelled a lot in recent weeks giving market outlook presentations to audiences of investors.  My travels have taken me to most capitals plus several regional towns.
Many with whom I have spoken seem confused.  Their heads are full of the latest property commentary.  Few seem to have a basic set of rules that help them to assess a property’s potential.
One of my presentation points is that investment value is best determined by rent.
I know it is basic stuff, but sometimes the simple things are often the best.
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How to determine fair investment value

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I like to take a helicopter view; a wider lens often shows the truer picture.
I find myself taking this stance more often – actually saying something like, “let’s take a step back for a second and take in the broader view” – the older I get.
And the Monocle Magazine has done just that.
Monocle has just issued its eighth annual Quality of Life Survey of the top 25 cities in the world and three Australian cities have made the cut.
Firstly, Monocle is well worth a read. The July/August issue is their 75th. Go to <a href="https://www.monocle.com/" target="_blank">www.monocle.com</a> to find out more. Their app is also worth downloading – fantastic podcasts about urban issues, among other things.
Ranking
According to Monocle the best cities in the world fall in this order:
<ol>
<li>Copenhagen</li>
<li>Tokyo</li>
<li>Melbourne</li>
<li>Stockholm</li>
<li>Helsinki</li>
<li>Vienna</li>
<li>Zurich</li>
<li>Munich</li>
<li>Kyoto</li>
<li>Fukuoka</li>
<li>Sydney</li>
<li>Auckland</li>
<li>Hong Kong</li>
<li>Berlin</li>
<li>Vancouver</li>
<li>Singapore</li>
<li>Madrid</li>
<li>Paris</li>
<li>Amsterdam</li>
<li>Hamburg</li>
<li>Barcelona</li>
<li>Lisbon</li>
<li>Portland, Oregon</li>
<li>Oslo</li>
<li>Brisbane</li>
</ol>
The Monocle survey seeks to measure the quality of cities in terms of the intangibles that light up their communities, as well as the infrastructure that supports them.
Important criteria include safety/crime; climate, medical care, public transport, tolerance, urban design, architecture, government policy, business conditions, and access to nature.
What they think about us
Melbourne
This year it is ranked third; last year second.  Melbourne has proved, says Monocle, that coffee and cricket aren’t the only things it does well.  Public transport upgrades, low crime, plus a compelling new weekend paper help to explain why the city has retained its top three ranking.
Melbourne’s cultural credentials are second to none – and the success of ‘Melbourne Now” – the largest exhibition in the history of the National Gallery of Victoria, has cemented the city as an art capital.
And it is home to a number of brands that have made Melbourne their first port of call in Australia.  As Monocle concludes: "Sydney may have the Harbour Bridge, but it still doesn’t have a Muji."
Sydney  
This year it ranked 11th; last year ninth.  Let’s face it, for many, Sydney is Australia.  It is the world’s most popular destination for international students.  Monocle calls it Australia’s face to the world – pretty, and architecturally outstanding, with breakthroughs like the North Bondi Surf Life Saving Club and One Central Park.
Downfall – public transport servicing Sydney’s suburbs.  Upside around the harbour – the $2 billion in planned infrastructure spending and ambitious vertical garden strategy that has already yielded 96,000 square metres of greenery.  
Brisbane 
This year it ranked 25th; last year, not ranked.  Here’s what Monocle has to say about the Sunshine City:
This year, Australia’s third-largest city steps out from behind the shadows of Melbourne and Sydney and into the spotlight, playing host to the G20 Leaders Summit.
Delegates will find a sun-drenched destination with a flourishing start-up scene; fine subtropical climate; and leafy parks which boast 906 council-operated barbeques.
The good stuff:  low cost of living compared to other Australian cities; a spacious inner city, which leads to an ease of doing business; an encouraging business environment; interesting cafes and thriving restaurants.
Downfall – Brisbane’s violent binge-drinking culture and the strict policing that comes with it.
What would Monocle fix?
<ul>
<li>
Melbourne: the state premier’s promise of a rail link to the airport should come sooner rather than later.
</li>
<li>
Sydney: pick up the pace on the long-awaited second airport.
</li>
<li>
Brisbane: create a livelier city centre similar to Melbourne, as it is pretty unexciting outside of business hours.
</li>
</ul>
Tolerance – around half of those Brisbane residents recently surveyed admitted to being anti-Muslim; while a quarter had anti-Aboriginal concerns.  Yet, the city is hugely multicultural, with a third Brisbane residents having been born overseas.
Public transport – an efficient network, but expensive.
IsBrisbane a libertarian paradise or stickler for rules?  Bit of a stickler, reports Monocle.
So what do others think?
Auspoll in Australia has also developed a subjective measure of city liveability for its MY City survey conducted for the Property Council of Australia last year.
A sample of residents from 11 different cities are surveyed on 17 attributes about liveability in their cities and their responses are combined into an overall liveability score.
My City Liveability Index
The latest My City study results are charted below.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/PCA-liveability-index.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7511" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/PCA-liveability-index.jpg" alt="PCA liveability index"></a>
Adelaide has consistently been rated the most liveable city, closely followed by Canberra.
Both Hobart and Newcastle ranked higher in 2012 than 2011 (third and fourth place), while Perth and Melbourne fell slightly in the rankings.  Sydney and Darwin were ranked as the least liveable cities.
Brisbane falls somewhere in the middle of the pack.
The most important of the 17 attributes that make up the liveability index were:
<ul>
<li>safety – a safe place for people and their property</li>
<li>cost of living – affordable for a good standard of living</li>
<li>health – good health care services</li>
<li>employment – good employment and economic opportunities</li>
<li>quality of the environment – clean city, well maintained and unpolluted 
</li>
</ul>
What do we think?
Well firstly, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  What looks crappy to some is fantastic to others.
I have just been to several of the cities that the My City survey suggests are Australia’s most liveable and well, let me say….. I don’t get it.
But we agree with the My City results in that safety; cost of living; health; employment and quality of the environment are the most important aspects behind an area’s liveability.  And I dare say, a property market’s overall performance.
Too much commentary, and we are very guilty of this too, is about economic things; new infrastructure and the hard elements like transport systems.  It is very often the soft stuff that matters the most.
Also, it interesting to see how others have pigeon-holed us.
When it comes to Monocle and Brisbane, we don’t disagree – and particularly in view of the need to attract residents to the plethora of inner city apartment towers slated for Brisbane.
While there is a trend both in Australia and overseas to accept less private dwelling space in order live in a better location or place, the higher the density, the better the local amenity needs to be.
Or, as I often say – “density needs to be offset”.
The concept of trading “space for place” is incumbent upon an area being attractive and with a high degree of amenity and lifestyle offerings.
It is what Brisbane needs more of, and it’s a concept upon which our decision-makers and planners should focus.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
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Australia has three of the world's "most liveable" cities: What does this really say about us?

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The Gold Coast market has finally entered a recovery.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Gold-Coast-area-image-for-missive.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7281" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Gold-Coast-area-image-for-missive.jpg" alt="Gold Coast area - image for missive"></a>
This recovery started in earnest this year.  It followed a market correction and long stagnation period.  This ‘reset and rest’ was needed, as the Gold Coast had overheated in terms of price and even rents in the mid-to-late 2000s.  Property values on the Gold Coast appreciated in the order of 165% between 2001 and 2008.
What next?
This time around, values are expected to lift, but mildly in comparison.  Potentially, house values could rise by another 9% and attached property values by as much as 11%.  This takes into account the current low interest rate setting.
The Gold Coast’s current recovery and pending upturn is likely to be short in duration this cycle, with the market peaking in early 2016, depending on interest rate movements, local employment trends and dwelling supply.
Demand
One of the driving factors behind the Gold Coast property market and overall economy is its population growth.  The already high rate of population growth is expected to accelerate in the future.  Much of this growth is imported, from interstate and overseas.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GC-Report-P.-12.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7284" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GC-Report-P.-12.jpg" alt="GC Report P. 12"></a>
The Gold Coast also has a relatively young demographic profile, with the strongest demand over the next 10 years coming from young renters and first home buyers.
This will see the need for more affordable property.  This will likely fuel the need more townhouses plus one and two-bedroom apartments in low-to-midrise developments, mostly, away from the beach.
The size of the downsizing market is also quite large and this market, too, is looking towards smaller dwellings, but at affordable prices and in their local area.
Again, the key message here is affordable dwellings.  On average, Gold Coast households have limited income.  Increasingly detached housing is priced out of the majority’s reach.
What to buy
Investors should look to buy property priced largely under $400,000 for second-hand stock; under $500,000 for new apartments and house and land.  Property at these price points should be met with strong rental demand and should attract owner-resident buyer interest at presale.
Another big plus to the Gold Coast property cycle this time around is the undersupply of new stock and also the very tight local rental market.
Despite all the hoop-la about the Commonwealth Games, employment growth on the Gold Coast – or the general lack of it – remains a drag on the local economy and dwelling price growth.
Whilst speaking about jobs, investors should look to buy property in or within close proximity to the Gold Coast’s major employment nodes. These include Robina/Varsity Lakes and Southport/Benowa.
Moving forward
With already over 500,000 permanent residents; strong population growth, a young demographic profile and tight supply (at present), the Gold Coast property market is in its best shape for almost a decade.
We stress that the Gold Coast property play moving forward is more about jobs and buying what I call “capital city stock” rather than the traditional lifestyle coastal property. So beachfront, top-end, luxury homes or apartments might not make the best investment on the Gold Coast for the next cycle or two – the underlying demographics don’t really support such.
Our modelling suggests a growing need for more residential construction on the Gold Coast and this will further help increase employment. The city has a very strong future Property Pulse™ suggesting a growing demand for property in the region.  We stress, however, that until jobs and incomes improve on the Gold Coast, price growth, despite rising demand, will be constrained.
Final word
Now looks like a good time to buy a Gold Coast investment.  Prices should increase over the next 12 to 24 months.  Rents are rising.  But investors need to buy affordable, mainstream rental property, not lifestyle-orientated stock.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
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Now looks like a good time to buy a Gold Coast investment

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Several times in recent weeks the RBA has made statements about the price of Australia’s housing. 
The first was that overseas buying is having little impact on price; the second was that owners shouldn’t expect prices to rise every year and the third, that if price growth slows, then many would be better off renting.
With only one real tool now left in the tool box – i.e. interest rates – there is little that The Guv can do but jawbone. 
Nothing wrong with that – you, I and many others do it on a regular basis.  The difference is we don’t get front page coverage (well, you do sometimes) or a mention on the nightly news. 
Overseas buying
Well the RBA, in my view and according to our research, is wrong.  Somewhere between 25% and 50% of new attached residential property is being sold directly overseas.
We are about to release a series of apartment sales and performance reports – which cover buyer profiles and origins, along with resale plus rental results – and the recently settled projects have all got very high overseas buyer origins.
Also, having given over 60 market outlook presentations over the past 12 months, I can tell you that many in the audience – especially in Sydney and Melbourne – are recent migrants and they tell me during our one-on-one discussions, after the formalities are over, that they are buying for not only themselves, but friends and relatives currently living overseas.  Interestingly, many think that ownership gives their friends and relatives the right to occupy.
Despite the recent low interest rates, why is it this housing recovery has been quarantined (so far) largely to Sydney and Melbourne?  Little has happened over the past 18 to 24 months, outside of these two capitals.  Is it just coincidence that both Sydney and Melbourne attract the most overseas migration and direct overseas interest?  Come on, let’s get real. and the RBA have no control over this.
Price growth to slow
Once interest rates normalise (rise) then the housing market will slow.  But more importantly, ageing demographics, especially the contraction in the size of the upgrading market, will be a big drag on house spending.  Ditto persistently high unemployment and fewer full-time jobs being created. 
Annual price growth, say, post mid-2016 (when I think interest rates will rise, due to the Federal Reserve’s action rather than anything here), would at best be 5% per annum.  So, well under 2.5% in real terms.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
<a href="/expert-insights/finance/no-property-bubble-but-rba-pinpoints-the-possible-future-wisdom-in-renting">Better off renting?</a>
Statistically yes, but only if households wisely invested the difference; the quality of the owner resident homes and rental properties in this country were the same and that pride, security and self-worth weren’t generated out of security of title and the ability to improve your lot.
It is amazing how a really boffin-ish academic study can get so much airplay.  But it does reiterate that the RBA expects less residential growth in the future.
I think more will rent in the decades to come, as many will be priced out of the ownership marketand/or don’t want to commit to the mortgage.  Ironically, we are likely to see fewer investors – well, first time investors mostly – as the past and easy property growth rate has gone.  It will take real skill and focus to buy the right investment product and even if investors buy wisely, gone are the days of double digit annual price growth, once this current upturn is over. 
What’s going on
Let me share some statistics with you:
<ul>
<li>
16,000 new jobs were created across Australia in June, but just 3,800 were full-time.  The unemployment rate is now at 6%.  Less wage growth is the result and about half of that experienced just five years ago.  Half of the new jobs created across Australia over the last year have been part-time.  This is now a growing trend.
</li>
<li>
Mining capex is in decline and has not (yet) been replaced by non-mining stuff – i.e. retail, tourism, gas projects, public transport and especially construction.  Things look increasingly encouraging in this space, especially with housing commencements finally starting to move upwards, but many of these new jobs will not pay as well as resource-related ones and a lot will be part-time.
</li>
<li>
94.9 is the current reading of the Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence – a reading above 100 signals optimism.  So, we are pessimistic. and it is more than just the federal budget or PUP and this Senate; we have been pessimistic for some time. I think many believe that Australia has been living ‘above its means’ for some time and that we need to do something about it,and now, rather than leaving it to our children/grandchildren to deal with.  This means having less.  Hard to do and such change usually zaps confidence.
</li>
<li>Investment housing loans are up over 20% on last year.</li>
</ul>
My reading is that the RBA is having a bet each way: rates to remain steady for some time, or if things continue to soften economically, then the cash rate will need to fall sometime over the next couple of months – down another 0.25%  – to help boost employment and help boost the non-mining capex industries along.
If rates do fall, this will add strength to the housing cycle, increasing prices above a sustainable growth path and level (they have already passed this point in many centres – seriously so in Sydney, Melbourne and to some degree Perth).
This collateral damage is the price we will be paying for having only one tool now to work with (we have no money left in the bank) and it is why the RBA is megaphoning about such housing matters now.
And sometime in the future – let’s say for now, in 18 or so months, the USA will start increasing their cost of funds. Why?  Because their economy will be improving and higher interest rates will be warranted. The world will have to follow suit, Australia included.
For mine, Australia’s housing markets are at a watershed – the future is much less generic price and even rental growth, real issues with affordability, acceptance of more compact and cheaper housing, plus the dire need for major changes to town-planning regulations and practice. Taxation on housing, new and established, will also need a major overhaul.
Fewer are likely to invest in property as a result; many will age in place; look to take in a tenant to help pay their way and where it is allowed, many owners will redevelop their homes – adding granny flats; creating duplexes; making extensions, but not for ‘pleasure’, rather for income generation and/or accommodating children at home for longer, or housing their ageing parents at home.
Sadly, the RBA isn’t megaphoning about this.
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Australia’s housing markets are at a watershed moment

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Gladstone has entered a downturn.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Image.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7346" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Image.png" alt="Image"></a>
Yesterday
The market peaked in 2012, with values, rents and new supply overshooting the local area’s property fundamentals.
Much of this overshoot was influenced by the need for workers for the construction of gas and coal-related infrastructure.
Also the area, about five years ago, was undersupplied with new stock. Exaggerated rents were being paid by energy and construction workers. Many were desperate to find accommodation, often at almost any cost.
This mismatch between supply and demand, in concert with the lacklustre outlook for the markets in South East Queensland post 2008, saw investment sellers oversell Gladstone’s potential.
New supply increased and future investment returns detached from reality.  A real estate bubble formed and a much needed correction has now taken place.  A rapid fall in weekly rents, and in many cases, prices and sales, has occurred over the last 12 months.
Many property commentators and investors – as a result – have written Gladstone off.
Today
That is premature, and shows a distinct misunderstanding of how a property cycle, especially in a regional city, works.
At today’s prices, the city has the potential for price growth in the short-to-medium term.  However, we believe that this is unlikely to happen over the next 12 to 24 months, given the current misconception of the Gladstone market and the area’s current oversupply.
Yet, now is a great time to buy investment property in Gladstone.
Prices are negotiable, rents are at the bottom of their cycle and sales volumes are likely to increase in coming years.  In addition, there is a lot of stock from which to choose.  Counter-cyclical investors, with the mindset to hold for a full cycle or more, should seriously look at Gladstone.
Tomorrow
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Gladstone-Page-12.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7349" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Gladstone-Page-12.jpg" alt="Gladstone Page 12"></a>
Our mid-to-long term outlook for Gladstone is very positive – a rising Matusik Property Pulse™; strong population growth; high and growing underlying demand and the need for more rental property.
Job creation – despite what is reported – is improving and the area has a much lower unemployment rate when compared to the Queensland average.
Gladstone has a young demographic profile – this will drive the need for affordable homes and more attached property.
What to buy
Investors, for mine, need to buy close to the Gladstone CBD.  They are better off buying attached product or small-lot homes in prime locations.  In most cases, limit expenditure to $400,000 for second-hand stock and under $500,000 for a new property or off-plan purchase.
Up to $600,000 for high quality, furnished, downtown property is also worth considering.
Furnished apartments – again in the CBD – are likely to find a tenant more quickly than unfurnished product.
Final word
Price and rental growth will return to Gladstone, but this is likely to take some time.  Also, when it returns, the growth tangent is likely to be much less than what the region experienced between 2009 and 2012.
A 5% per annum growth rate is more realistic and sustainable.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
<a href="https://matusik.com.au/products/gladstone-market-outlook-report/" target="_blank">Go here</a> for the full Matusik Market Outlook Report on Gladstone.
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Gladstone in a downturn, but positive medium outlook means it could be a great opportunity for investors

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The song at this stage of the residential property cycle would normally sound something like this:
"Higher prices and price growth, coupled with lower rental returns in both Sydney and Melbourne will see more people move interstate to cheaper and sunnier South East Queensland.”
Well, that doesn’t seem to be happening. The more optimistic would end this sentence, with a ‘yet’.  But I wonder. Yes, investors are crossing the Tweed and the current level investor interest from the southern states reminds me of the early 2000s, but unlike back then, net interstate migration to Queensland still remains low, close to an all-time low in fact.  See our first chart below.
Our second chart shows that Victoria – yes, that old rust bucket – attracts more interstate action than Queensland these days.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7443" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-1.jpg" alt="NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION #1"></a>
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7444" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-2.jpg" alt="NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION #2"></a>
So why are fewer people moving to Queensland?
<ul>
<li>Jobs</li>
</ul>
Most people move interstate for work.  Sure, many might like Queensland’s climate better, especially during winter/spring, but their primary motivation is work. 
Queensland is creating new jobs, but these aren’t really big paying positions, nor are that many full-time. 
It is more than just post-mining influence at work here; the overall ‘casualisation of work’ trend is having an impact.
<ul>
<li>Ageing demographics</li>
</ul>
As people age, they move less and when they move, they don’t move as far as they did when they were younger.They like to stay in the same neighbourhood if they can.  
Yes, they like to be closer to the kids and especially the grandchildren, but given the low cost of air travel, plus the vitality of our older folk (my parents are almost always travelling), they don’t see themselves as ‘baby sitters’ these days.
<ul>
<li>Stamp duties</li>
</ul>
One of the biggest killers of housing movements is stamp duties.  This cost – determined as a percentage of the end price – stops many local moves and a lot of interstate movements as well.
It should be a flat fee; the same for all residential property transactions regardless of location and be say, $1,000 per sale, and not the exorbitant amount that is currently incurred.
If you want free up our larger, underutilised homes and get downsizers/retirees into something more practical for them, then stamp duties must be reduced and dramatically so. 
Otherwise, these two market segments (which are about to grow <a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/2014/06/03/housings-future/">substantially</a> in size) will age in place; and we will struggle to house, affordably, our younger generations.
<ul>
<li>Perception</li>
</ul>
I don’t care how many times the media try to project Brisbane/South East Queensland as having lost its “red neck” and somehow acquired, magically, a sophisticated aura; most of my interstate friends and relatives don’t buy it, nor do I.  I think we need to really think through what we are and the image we want to convey.  We shouldn’t be competing with Sydney, Melbourne or Perth; we need to find our own voice.
For example, I was in Toowoomba last week giving a presentation for the Chamber of Commerce, where a short promotional video was played outlining why someone should consider living in the Darling Downs.  It wasn’t “resources” this or “infrastructure” that, it was a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMQ9dPn7IA4&amp;feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">great clip</a> about a bushie and how he lived under a “big sky”.  It worked a treat – so much so that I nearly bought a Toowoomba house.
Anyway, for mine, Queensland needs to work on its image.  It seems lost if you ask me…and it is reducing the number of bums of seats.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
<a href="https://matusik.com.au/products/toowoomba-market-outlook-report/" target="_blank">Go here</a> for the full Matusik Market Outlook Report on Toowoomba.
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Why are fewer people moving to Queensland?

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Toowoomba has a lot going for it, real estate-wise.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Picture3.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7422" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Picture3.png" alt="Picture3"></a>
The good news
The city has just entered a residential recovery.  It is Australia’s largest non-capital inland city. It is the ‘service town’ of the Surat Basin, which is expected to become Australia’s largest energy province.
Yet the city has a diverse economic base and now, a secure water supply.  Toowoomba already holds significant regional infrastructure and several new projects have just been announced.
The challenges 
The city, however, does face some challenges.
The largest is its changing demographics.  Toowoomba’s age structure is polarised, on one hand a significant proportion of its population is aging, whilst on the other a younger buyer and rental group is emerging.
<blockquote>
Toowoomba’s age structure is polarised, on one hand a significant proportion of its population is aging, whilst on the other a younger buyer and rental group is emerging.
</blockquote>
Yet with this demographic shift comes opportunities.
Market recovery
The ingredients that characterise a market recovery are all in place in Toowoomba.
A major regional city
Few realise how big Toowoomba already is, holding 160,000 permanent residents, with its population expected to exceed 200,000 within the next two decades.
The City services a much bigger area, acting as the ‘hub’ for much of the production which occurs west of Brisbane.
In a typical year for example, over half of the trade moving through the Port of Brisbane travels to or emanates from the Toowoomba area. 
Matusik Property Pulse™
Our modelling suggests a growing need for more residential construction in Toowoomba.
This, in turn, will further help increase employment.
Bottom line 
We do expect prices and rents to increase, and maybe sharply, over the next 12 to 14 months as Toowoomba’s recovery gains momentum.
Investors today can anticipate some price growth.  Rents should continue to grow, and most likely strongly in Toowoomba into the future.
But demographics drive the property market and Toowoomba’s twin age peaks (young and old) mean that price growth post 2016 is likely to remain subdued.
Be careful not to pay too much.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
<a href="https://matusik.com.au/products/toowoomba-market-outlook-report/" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Go here</a> for the full Matusik Market Outlook Report on Toowoomba.
Photo courtesy of Alan Henderson/Flickr/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Toowoomba's shifting demographics an opportunity for investors

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My usual property outlook presentation these days covers two main themes – cycle and structure.
The interplay between these two elements makes up the property market’s DNA.
I have written about the property cycle several times over the last 12 months and have also covered four of the main five ingredients that make-up the most important structural foundations supporting the Australia residential market. These four pillars include employment, wages, income and the cost/availability of money.
This will cover the most vital ingredient for mine, demographics.
Now I am not talking about population growth per se, but a deeper cut of the available statistics.
Also, I am not that interested in the past, but much more interested in the future.  I am talking about age forecasts.
We are lucky in Australia that the ABS, after each Census, recalibrates their age-related forecasts.  They did so late last year, with their estimates reaching out as far as 2100.  Now we won’t get that ahead of ourselves but we will have a look at what’s likely to happen over the next decade or so.
Housing demographics
I don’t really like generational segregation i.e. baby boomers; generation X and the like – I think they are too broad and don’t necessarily translate well when it comes to real estate action.
We instead break the market into seven segments:
<ul>
<li>
Children – aged up to 17 years.  Living mostly – one hopes – at home; and whilst not a direct influence on underlying demand, they are captured in the larger household sizes of first home buyers (3.3 people on average per dwelling) and the upgrading market (2.99 people per home).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Young renters – 18 to 29 years.  Statistically, 77% of them rent, many rent apartments in our inner cities.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
First home buyers -30 to 44 years.  Yes, up to 44 years!  HECS, partnering later; parents as friends; travel; options galore – so yes, for many, it is not until their mid to even late 30s that they buy a home.  
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Upgraders – 45 to 59 years.  Having children later means that many, even well into their 50s, still have teenage children at home.  With teenagers you want space – demand is highest for houses, with lots of bedrooms, a pool etc. 
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Downsizers – 60 to 74 years.  Many want to move into something with a nexus to the ground; in a small project and if possible in their existing neighbourhood.  Living close to the grandchildren is also a strong locational consideration.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Age-related care - over 85 years.  At this age – and it is mostly women who live this long – some form of assistance is often required.  But many who live to 85 years, the statistics show, can expect another ten years of life, so nursing homes (for the sake of labelling them) aren’t necessarily God’s waiting room these days.</li>
</ul>
Spending on housing peaks when people upgrade, and the money spent on housing, and the number of moves made, drops sharply once we are in our mid-to-late 50s.  See the chart below.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/housing-demo1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7294" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/housing-demo1.jpg" alt="housing demo#1"></a>
Market outlook
Our second chart outlines underlying demand – the number of new properties needed per annum – by each housing segment over time.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/housing-demo-2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7296" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/housing-demo-2.jpg" alt="housing demo #2"></a>
This chart suggests:
<ul>
<li>
Young renters – drop in market demand over the next 10 years.  My experience is that town planning is a decade behind the actual market and the willingness to approve downtown high-rise apartments in big blocks should have been done ten years ago, not now.  The demand for product is much smaller than many realise.  Well, that’s what the statistics are telling us.  And it is for that reason we aren’t advising on or advocating large scale downtown apartment projects these days.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
First home buyers – significant increase in demand.  Affordable housing is increasingly important, especially given the casualization of the Australian workforce.  Many may also remain renters out of choice or force.  But the potential demand is here.  More affordable product is the answer, not grants or handouts. 
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Upgraders – a drop in demand.  This will slow down the momentum of the housing market in coming years, especially so once interest rates rise.  This is one of the reasons, we believe, why Australia’s housing market will contract post 2016.  
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Downsizers – strong lift in underlying demand.  Many will opt to age in place, as the upgrading market that usually buys their property will not be large enough to consume this supply.  Also, many would sell if they could find smaller and affordable local digs.  The irony here is that this is the demographic that mostly protested against local infill development in the past.  However, some are reassessing this non-development stance.  First home buyers are another potential buyer group, but these larger houses will need to be retrofitted to allow shared accommodation to help first timers pay the mortgage.  This is the space in which town planners and urban decision makers need to spend more time, and not in ten years’ time! 
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Retirement – a big shift too and more so in the 2020s.  Living in more compact housing suits this demographic – more travel; little maintenance and convenience.  Importantly, they like a limited number of neighbours; and they like their pets too.  Pet friendly developments are a must. 
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Age-related care – little change, but post 2020 a massive shift upwards.  The ABS statistics suggest that during the 2030s, the largest single housing market is Australia – with the need to build close to 40,000 new dwellings per year – will be for those aged 85 or older.  It is little wonder that the likes of FKP and Eureka Group Holdings Limited are focusing on existing and future sites to cater for this pending demand.</li>
</ul>
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
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