Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0%. This decision was widely anticipated coming as absolutely no surprise to markets.
The key policy conclusion: “Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand” was unchanged from the November meeting when this mild easing bias was first adopted in the wake of the much lower than expected print for underlying inflation in the September quarter.
The key international themes were retained. However in November the language used was “some further softening in conditions in the Asian region”. This was replaced by “some softening in conditions in the Asian region”. Arguably we could interpret this as indicating that the Bank has not observed any additional deterioration over and above what was expected a month ago. Australia’s terms of trade are still described as “falling” while the Bank not surprisingly continues to expect the Federal Reserve to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead.
Growth in the domestic economy is still described as moderate but a gradual improvement in business surveys for the non-mining sector has been evident. This has been boosting employment growth and ensuring a stabilisation of the unemployment rate. Confidence around the labour market has been slightly boosted with November discussing “somewhat stronger growth in employment” and this statement referring to “stronger growth in employment”.
In the Statement on Monetary Policy the Bank confirmed the mid-point of its underlying inflation forecast for 2016 as 2.5%. However in the December statement it does confirm the November assessment that inflation will be consistent with the target over the next one to two years but qualifies that by suggesting that it will be “a little lower than earlier expected”.
Along with the observation that business surveys in non-mining are showing a gradual improvement this statement complements confidence around business by pointing out that “credit provided by intermediaries to business picking up”.
Since the last meeting the AUD has increased from USD0.715 to USD0.725 despite a fall in the iron ore price from USD49 to USD43 and a 5% fall in the Westpac’s overall commodity price index. With those contrasting changes there was some possibility that the commentary around the Australian dollar might be a little more urgent. However, with only one month’s data to go by, the Bank has decided to retain the sentiment around the Australian dollar as “the Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in commodity prices”.
Outlook
Markets are currently attributing a 25% probability to a cut of 25bps in February. Of course this pricing has been scaled back from more than 100% over the last five weeks. Westpac still expects rates to be on hold in February. Developments that would be necessary to change our minds would be around the labour market; commodity prices; GDP growth; and confidence. However, we expect that such developments would take time to trigger a policy change and even though the February meeting is two months away we don’t expect sufficient developments in that regard.
The risks for lower rates should be much more focussed on May where the market gives a more than 50% probability of a cut. Our current forecasts do not justify that decision but of course those forecasts are being constantly reviewed.
Certainly if there is to be a move over the next six months it will be down rather than up.
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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February cut also looks unlikely: Westpac's Bill Evans

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The cash rate has been left at a record low of 2% for a seventh month (eight months of rates at 2%).
The Reserve Bank Board has noted the moderation in home prices in Melbourne and Sydney.
What does it all mean?
In November, the Reserve Bank re-instituted the ‘easing bias’. That is, the RBA intimated that if rates were to move in coming months it would be down, not up. The ‘easing bias’ hasn’t changed. But this is more of an insurance policy. The economy is actually performing well and momentum appears to be lifting. Of course, if the economy started to lose steam, then the RBA could cut rates again – for the key reason that inflation is actually a bit lower than the RBA had earlier expected.
<a href="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%203.22.28%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%203.22.28%20PM.png" alt="">
The next meeting of the Reserve Bank Board is not until February 2 2016.
On the Australian dollar, the Reserve Bank continued with the same language: “The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.” Seemingly, the RBA is “happy” with the current level of the currency. However some could contend that the Aussie is a little firm compared with commodity prices like gold, oil, coal and iron ore.
On the housing market, the RBA noted: “The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities.” Back in October, the RBA said: “Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney and Melbourne, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities.” The Reserve Bank would be happy that supply and demand in the housing market has become more balanced in Australia’s biggest cities.
The good news is that Aussie consumers and businesses have almost two months of grace before being badgered again by interest rate speculation.
Perspectives on interest rates
The previous rate cut was in May 2015 (25 basis points), taking the cash rate to a record low of 2%.
There have been 10 rate cuts since November 2011.
The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 – a total of 1.75 percentage points, from 3% to 4.75%.
What are the implications of today’s decision?
CommSec doesn’t expect any change in the cash rate for the foreseeable future. Inflation is under control but the major uncertainty relates to the “pass-through” of the lower exchange rate in lifting prices of imported goods. So far, retailers have been reluctant to pass on higher prices to consumers. The economy is well supported by record building approvals which are serving to lift many boats across the country.
With interest rates poised to stay low or potentially move even lower, investors will need to remain pro-active in embracing the best deals on online bank accounts. Borrowers also need to be on guard as fixed-term rates could edge higher in coming months as the US Federal Reserve seeks to ‘normalise’ interest rates.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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No surprises from the Reserve Bank: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia today decided to keep the Official Cash Rate at 2%t - there is no surprise there.
The RBA has signalled that the cash rate will remain on hold for the foreseeable future.
The Bank has also signalled that if there is to be any change in 2016 it will be a further reduction.
That is the appropriate message for now given the uncertainty around future new home construction activity in 2016/17 and beyond. 
Higher variable mortgage rates and a broader reach for investor credit rationing than required is hitting at the very time when the new residential construction cycle is at or close to a peak. That is a risk for the broader Australian economy. 
<a href="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%202.56.18%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%202.56.18%20PM.png" alt="" width="772" height="385">
Harley Dale is chief economist, HIA and can be contacted <a href="https://hia.com.au/en/BusinessInfo/economicInfo/EcoGroup.aspx" target="_blank">here</a>.
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RBA signals cautious approach ahead in 2016: HIA

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Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
<h3 id="mr-title">Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision</h3>
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, reflecting increased supply, including from Australia, as well as weaker demand. Australia's terms of trade are falling.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment. While credit costs for some emerging market countries remain higher than a year ago, global financial conditions overall remain very accommodative.
In Australia, the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues in the face of a large decline in capital spending in the mining sector. While GDP growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, business surveys suggest a gradual improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors over the past year. This has been accompanied by stronger growth in employment and a steady rate of unemployment.
Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.
In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with credit provided by intermediaries to businesses picking up. Growth in lending to investors in the housing market has eased. Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.
The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.
At today's meeting the Board again judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate. Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand. The Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.
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Unchanged: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' December 2015 meeting statement

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GUEST OBSERVER
The big drop in the Australian unemployment rate grabbed the headline this week. Headline inflation, at 1.5% (year-on-year) below the RBA’s target band of 2-3%, remains well contained and GDP growth, at 2% annualized, soft.
The CAMA RBA Shadow Board on balance prefers to keep the cash rate on hold, attaching a 67% probability to this being the appropriate policy setting. The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 22%, down four percentage points from the previous month, while the confidence in a required rate hike has risen slightly to 11%.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia’s unemployment rate fell in October from 6.2% to 5.9% though the accuracy of recent ABS numbers is questionable. Employment, both full time and part time, has expanded and the participation rate reversed its recent decline. These are all positive signs.
The Aussie dollar continues to trade around 72 US¢. Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds have risen, most recently to 2.82%.
The outlook for the Australian property market has not changed appreciably. At this stage, it appears that the property market is cooling gently, preparing for a soft landing, rather than an abrupt correction. As predicted, the S&amp;P/ASX200 continues to move sideways around the 5200 mark.
Global markets are preparing for the US Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate during its last FOMC meeting of the year. Given the most recent rhetoric by the Federal Reserve Bank Governor Janet Yellen, this looks more likely than ever. Recent US growth data have surprised on the upside and other US economic indicators point to a healthy economic expansion. On the other hand there remain risks to the global economy. These include geopolitical tensions, following the terrorist attacks in Paris, as well as economic risks associated with emerging countries’ excessive debt levels.
Consumer and producer sentiment measures continue to paint a motley picture. After successive drops, the Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose for a second month in a row, to 102 in November, from 97.8 in October. Business confidence, according to the NAB business survey slid further, fell again, from 5 to 2. The AIG manufacturing and services indices, leading economic indicators, both fell.
The Shadow Board’s confidence that the cash rate should remain at its current level edged up from 65% in November to 67%. After last month’s noticeable shift, the confidence that a rate cut is appropriate has dropped again to 22% (26% in November); the confidence that a rate increase, to 2.25% or higher, is necessary has risen to 11% (9% in November).
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 2% is nearly unchanged at 23% (24% in November). The estimated need for an interest rate increase has slightly increased, to 60% (58% in November), while the need for a rate decrease has slipped to 17% (19% in November). A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady is unchanged at 18%, while the confidence in a required cash rate increase equals 67% (unchanged from November) and in a required cash rate decrease 16% (15% in November).
<a href="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%209.42.19%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%209.42.19%20AM.png" alt="" width="747" height="443">
To see the report in full, <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/rba-shadow-board/outcome/2015-12" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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No need for holiday season rate cut: RBA Shadow Board

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GUEST OBSERVER
The RBA is clearly set to remain on hold next week. This was made clear in a recent speech by Governor Stevens, when, rather unusually, he gave fairly clear guidance on the near-term outlook for rates. 
When asked about whether he was ‘still content with a 2.00% cash rate’ or whether the central bank was ‘going to surprise us all again next February’, he said that, “February is three months away, we’ve got Christmas, we should just chill out… come back… and see what the data says.”
December is seemingly not even in consideration.
So if December is out: what about February?
One thing is clear: the RBA does not want to cut further. Otherwise, it would have done so already. Inflation is low and the central bank is forecasting it to stay low over coming quarters. At the same time, the RBA is forecasting growth to remain below trend until late 2016 and the unemployment rate to stay high over the next two years. The RBA is clearly patient and has set a high bar for delivering any further stimulus.
Between now and February there is also a large number of significant local and global events. Local Q3 GDP data arrive next week and are expected to be on the stronger side. Local jobs numbers come after that and will be worth watching, given the surprisingly strong October result. The Fed’s meeting in mid-December will be important, particularly its implications for the AUD: if the Fed hikes, but delivers a dovish message, the AUD may not fall as many are hoping. At the same time, commodity prices have fallen in recent weeks, as the Chinese slowdown has continued. Finally, the next local CPI print, due on 27 January 2016, will be critical.
We remain optimistic about local growth, but pessimistic about the global inflation outlook. Given low inflation, our central case has the RBA delivering another cut early next year, but there is significant uncertainty, given the large collection of events between now and then, and the RBA’s considerable reluctance about considering the prospect of further cuts.
<a href="/images/2015/11/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-27%20at%2011.40.51%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-27%20at%2011.40.51%20AM.png" alt="" width="760" height="339"> 
 
 
Growth is lifting, as the rebalancing act continues
 
Timely indicators of economic conditions continue to suggest that Australia’s growth is lifting.
 
The NAB business survey, which the RBA has put significant focus on recently in its commentary, shows that business conditions are at around five-year highs (Chart 1). The NAB survey has also shown a further pick-up in capacity utilisation, although business confidence ticked down recently and remains below average. The improvement in business conditions has been led by the services sectors, as growth rebalances away from mining (Chart 2).
 
Jobs growth is also being driven by services sector employment. The recent lift in jobs growth has seen the unemployment rate tick down to 5.9%, which is its lowest level since April 2014
 
(Chart 3). Although the official labour market numbers have been subject to significant measurement issues recently, the collection of labour market indicators suggests gradual improvement in labour market conditions. Job advertisements, job vacancies, internet vacancies and the business surveys have also shown a gradual trend improvement in recent months.
 
Q3 GDP, which is due to be published next week (2 December), is expected to show a solid lift in the quarter, following the weak print in Q2 (Chart 4). A key support for growth is expected to come from net exports, with preliminary numbers showing a strong rise in exports and falling imports. Resources exports are ramping up as new capacity comes on line and coal exports rebound after weather-related disruptions in Q2. Domestic demand is expected to be modest with solid growth in household consumption and housing construction more than offsetting the effect of a sharp fall in mining investment.
<a href="/images/2015/11/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-27%20at%2011.43.26%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2015/11/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-27%20at%2011.43.26%20AM.png" alt="" width="776" height="389">
<a href="/images/2015/11/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-27%20at%2011.44.32%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-27%20at%2011.44.32%20AM.png" alt="" width="776" height="351">
 
Inflation is low and expected to stay there for some time
Although growth is picking up, inflation is low. This partly reflects that growth has been below trend for the past three years and the unemployment rate remains at a level that is well above full employment (around 5-5.25%). This has dampened wages growth and kept domestic price pressures at bay.
This month brought the wage price index, which showed that wages growth remains at its slowest pace in at least 18 years (Chart 5). The wage price index showed growth of 2.3% y-o-y in Q3, unchanged from Q2. However, growth in the private sector wage price index fell to a new record low of 2.1% y-o-y. Real wages have been broadly flat for the past two years.
Low wages growth is contributing to low inflation, with the underlying measures of inflation having surprised on the downside in Q3. Underlying inflation was running at 2.2% y-o-y in the Q3, which is near the bottom edge of the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Our own modelling, which is based on the RBA’s own work-horse models and using similar assumptions to the central bank, show that underlying inflation is expected to skirt the bottom edge of the target band over coming quarters (Chart 6). 
Considerable reluctance to cut
With growth running below its trend pace, the unemployment rate still well above its full employment level and underlying inflation at the lower edge of the target band, the RBA has scope to cut interest rates further, if it deems that this is needed. As Governor Stevens pointed out in a recent key speech, the RBA is “more than content to lower [the cash rate] if that actually helps”. At the same time, given the recent lift in business conditions and improving labour market, the RBA appears to have considerable reluctance to cut further. Part of this reflects that monetary policy is clearly doing what it is supposed to do and the RBA clearly sees the costs of a further cut outweighing the benefits at this stage.
One of these costs is financial stability. The central bank’s recent financial stability review suggested that the RBA remains concerned about potentially over-inflating the Sydney and
Melbourne housing markets, which have both seen significant housing price growth in recent years. The RBA has also recently expressed concerns about potential over-building in the housing and commercial property markets in some cities. Notably, there are signs that the housing market is cooling, particularly in Sydney, which may reduce the RBA’s concerns about financial stability issues over time (Chart 7).
<a href="/images/2015/11/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-27%20at%2011.47.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-27%20at%2011.47.20%20AM.png" alt="">
 
The RBA’s reluctance to cut further may also reflect timing and uncertainty. The RBA’s recent official statement emphasised a large number of risks at the current juncture.
One risk is what path the Fed might take in coming months and what that could mean for the AUD. The chances of Fed ‘lift-off’ this year have risen in recent weeks, particularly following the strong payrolls numbers for October. Although this could put some downward pressure on the AUD, much depends on the Fed’s subsequent path for rates. If the AUD falls noticeably from here, this could help to lift inflation faster, which could help the RBA hit its target. However, if the Fed’s commentary is more dovish the AUD could rise, putting further downward pressure on already low Australian inflation.
Another risk is what the slowdown in China will mean for commodity prices. The iron ore price has recently fallen to a 10-year low of around USD45 per tonne. The RBA has been content with the level of the AUD recently, partly because it had fallen in line with commodity prices and partly because there are clear signs that the lower AUD is lifting growth (Chart 8). If commodity prices were to fall further and the AUD rose, this could squeeze local income and become a concern for the RBA.
Importantly, we also get a swathe of local data for Australia before February. Next week we get Q3 GDP, which we expect to show solid growth (0.8% q-o-q and 2.5% y-o-y). The following week we get official labour market numbers for November, which will be of particular interest, given the strong result in October. Another critical piece of information ahead of the February RBA meeting will be Q4 CPI print, which is due on 27 January 2016. A low CPI print could encourage the RBA to cut further, although the central bank’s own forecasts already anticipate underlying inflation of 2.0% y-o-y, so it would take a weak result to surprise the RBA to the downside.
 
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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RBA chilling out for Christmas: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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When it comes to the question of who pays the mortgage interest, the answer is that New South Wales and Victoria do: well over half of the national interest payable in fact.
<a href="/images/2015/11/25/Interest%20Payable.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2015/11/25/Interest%20Payable.jpg" alt="">
<div>While this might seem surprising, in fact the share of interest paid by the largest two states has declined over the past two decades.</div>
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<div>The reason for this has been the expansion of both the population and mortgage sizes in Queensland (its share of the mortgage interest pie increasing from 15%to 19%) and Western Australia (its share increasing from 9 to 13%).</div>
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<div>The changes elsewhere have been negligible when viewed from the national level.</div>
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<div>Despite the Australian population having increased by well over 1 million persons (or about 4.7%) over the past three years, total interest payable has declined by nearly 22% thanks to the slashing of interest rates.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Who pays the interest? Pete Wargent

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Thirteen lenders are predicted to increase variable rates for both owner occupiers and investors.
Analysis by RateCity, titled "Rate Hike Friday" predicts mortgage holders will be hit by an average of 0.17 percentage points or $372 per year on a $300,000 home loan.
<a href="/images/2015/11/20/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-20%20at%2010.34.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/20/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-20%20at%2010.34.20%20AM.png" alt="">
RateCity money editor Sally Tindall said just one bank, CUA, is dropping its basic variable rate for existing customers as well as new ones - a strike rate of 1%.
“We’ve identified least 24 lenders who have dropped their variable home loan rates in recent months – but there’s a catch – the overwhelming majority of these lenders will only give you the new deal if you’re a new customer,” she said.
“Loyalty has well and truly left the home loan market. If you want one of the lowest rates, the chances are you’ll have to switch."
<a href="/images/2015/11/20/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-20%20at%2010.33.56%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/20/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-20%20at%2010.33.56%20AM.png" alt="" width="837" height="407">
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Thirteen lenders predicted to increase variable rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
A cash rate rise is coming to the Australian property market – experts are confident of that much.
When that rise will come, however, is a little unclear – 30% of respondents in the finder.com.au Reserve Bank Survey predict a rate move before the year is out, while more than half don’t expect any upward movements until at least 2017. In the meantime, we’re seeing out of cycle rate hikes hit the market, just weeks out from Christmas.
If you’ve been considering a home loan but haven’t yet made the plunge, now may be time to make the transition without worrying about further hikes.
Here are the lowest variable and 3-year fixed home loans on finder.com.au with no ongoing fees.
finder.com.au’s lowest variable rate home loans with no ongoing fees
1.     Mortgage House Summer Home Loan: 3.79%
This low rate is available for a 12 month period, at which point the rate will revert to 3.99%. It allows for a 100% offset account, the benefit of no application fees and additional repayment and redraw features. Provided you’ve braced for the $200 settlement, $450 discharge and $395 legal fees.
2.     Reduce Home Loans Rate Buster Fee Free: 3.85%
If you’re the type of person who can save a 30% deposit and still have a little left over to foot the $440 application and $130 settlement fees, this loan is a worthy contender among your options. The 100% offset account, repayment and redraw facilities as well as splitting options all give you the tools to create a formidable financial product. 
3.     loans.com.au Essentials Home Loan: 3.98%
While you won’t be accessing a 100% offset account  with this loan, you can put ongoing, legal and application fees worries to rest. This is particularly powerful when paired with the ability to make unlimited additional repayments, slicing interest off your mortgage. Just have your 20% deposit saved up, as you’ll only be able to borrow up to 80% of the total property value.
 
finder.com.au’s lowest 3-year fixed home loans with no ongoing fees
1.     Newcastle Permanent Fixed Rate Home Loan: 3.89%
This loan is not only a super low rate but it’s fee-friendly – there’s no application, legal, valuation or settlement fees. You can also make additional payments to this loan but beware, as you will not be able to access this money once you do decide to make those deposits.
 2.     CUA Fixed Rate Home Loan: 4.09%
This low rate comes with a high application fee, but don’t be disheartened by the $600 application tag – this loan has some great cushions to soften the blow. With no valuation fees, the ability to make additional repayments (capped at three repayments for the fixed period) and the ability to switch into interest only options, this flexible number can get your house on its feet sooner, provided you manage it well.
3.     Australian Unity Health, Wealth and Happiness Fixed Rate Package: 4.15%
If you can swallow a $600 settlement fee, don’t need to borrow more than 90% and are okay with no 100% offset account, this home loan is a serious heavyweight in the fixed space. With no application, legal or valuation fees and the ability to redraw your extra deposits, there is still quite a bit of breathing space in this low rate loan.
 
MICHELLE HUTCHISON is spokesperson for comparison website <a href="https://finder.com.au/" target="_blank">finder.com.au</a>.
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Six essential home loans: finder.com.au's Michelle Hutchison 

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GUEST OBSERVER 
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The minutes from the RBA’s November Board meeting, at which it left the cash rate at 2%, do not reveal substantial additional detail on the Bank’s outlook. 
The meeting predated the release of the strong October labour force numbers, which showed the unemployment rate falling nearly 0.3ppts to 5.9%, the lowest reading since April 2014. These numbers are broadly in line with the RBA’s relatively upbeat observations about labour market developments and help explain (post-script) why the Board chose not to implement a November rate cut, despite markets pricing a 50% probability just prior to the meeting. The Bank noted in the statement after the meeting and in the minutes that “prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months”. 
But the Bank also noted that spare capacity in the economy would persist for some time and remains quite uncertain about its consumption forecasts, noting “households' decisions about consumption and saving continued to represent an important source of uncertainty for the forecasts”. The Bank is expecting above-average consumption growth at some point, but we do not share that view. At 55% of the economy, this is a large proportion of expenditure and so any uncertainty could be influential to the Bank’s thinking. 
In isolation, the labour force report makes our expectation of a February rate cut more difficult to achieve. But of course the data cannot be read in isolation and the notoriously volatile labour force figures could paint quite a different picture over the next two months. Also, there is a possibility of further rises in lending rates from the banks to offset the regulatory changes that have raised minimum capital requirements. This would force an unwelcome – although probably small – tightening of financial conditions. The RBA’s November Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) (released after the Board meeting, but before the strong labour force report) also showed that the RBA lowered its growth and inflation forecasts, and these changes also support our view that the outlook is precarious and lower rates will be necessary in 2016. 
Consistent with the post-meeting statement, the minutes said the “inflation outlook may afford some scope for further easing of monetary policy”. While acknowledging that inflation was lower than earlier expected, “inflation was forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years”. The RBA said that while tight competition was limiting the higher price of imports being passed on to final consumer prices, some increase in tradable prices is expected in coming years. 
The Bank noted that although there would be further growth in dwelling investment, the pace of house price growth in Sydney and Melbourne “had moderated” and “supervisory measures were helping to contain risks”. On the international front, the slowing in growth in Asia “was likely to be more persistent than expected” and “Australia's trading partners was expected to be slightly below its decade average over the period ahead”. These comments are consistent with the SoMP. 
Bottom line, we think the RBA will be looking for a clearer picture before making any decisions. We see a very low likelihood of a move at the next RBA Board meeting on 1 December. This is especially the case with the crucial US central bank policy meeting on 16-17 December, two Australian labour force reports due before February, and the December quarter CPI due on 27 January. 
We maintain our view that the RBA will cut rates in the first half of next year. With the stimulus from housing and the lower AUD likely to fade next year, and the inflation outlook providing no impediment to lower rates, we think the cash rate will be cut twice by 25bps, most likely in February and May. 
Cherelle Murphy is co-head of Australian Economics, ANZ Research and can be contacted <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/authors/our-economists/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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