Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
Reserve Bank Board upbeat on economy rebalancing: “Members noted that recent domestic data had generally been positive.”… “Overall, the forecasts for the Australian economy were for output growth to strengthen gradually over the next two years, as the drag on GDP growth from falling mining investment gradually diminished and activity progressively shifted to non-mining sectors”.
The Reserve Bank Board left the door open for further rate cuts if growth slows, noting that the “that the outlook for inflation may afford some scope for a further easing of monetary policy should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.”
Consumer confidence: The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell from a 1-month high, down by 0.8% to 115.4 in the week to December 13. Confidence is up 4.7% over the year.
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +31 to +35 points – a near six-month high.
Car sales: New vehicle sales rose by 1% in seasonally adjusted terms in November after a 3.7% gain in October.
Higher home prices: The Bureau of Statistics reports that Australian home prices rose by 2% in the September quarter to stand 10.7% higher over the year.
The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses. The RBA Board minutes provides insights on the interest rate outlook. The data on car sales provide insights into consumer and business spending.
What does it all mean?
Consumer sentiment predictably eased last week from four week highs. No doubt the media discussion and preview on the expected blowout in Mid-Year Fiscal outlook added a modest dampener to the latest result. Overall confidence remains healthy consumers are still more upbeat than a year ago and sentiment is above the short-term average.
More confident consumers are more likely to spend, but there are no guarantees. But importantly the measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item lifted to the highest in nearly six months – a result that bodes well during the festive season. The upbeat employment data last week would have encouraged households when it comes to job security.
The Reserve Bank Board minutes make for interesting reading. Although there was no significant surprise in views. Board Members were slightly more upbeat on the prospects for the Australian economy and continued to reiterate firmer growth over the next two years. No doubt the weaker Australian dollar is supporting a rebalancing and helping to offset the weakness in mining investment. Interestingly the more upbeat view came ahead of the stronger employment numbers last week.
If the anticipated lift in activity does not take place, then this could prompt the Board to assess the need for more stimulus. And clearly the low inflation result has left the door open for a further rate cut.
Annual new vehicle sales are at record highs, suggestive of underlying strength in business and consumer sentiment and finances. But the trends aren’t uniform with sales of sports utility vehicles consistently setting new highs while passenger car sales are 24% below record levels.
<a href="/images/2015/12/15/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-16%20at%209.33.16%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/15/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-16%20at%209.33.16%20AM.png" alt="">
 
 
What do the figures show?
Consumer sentiment
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 0.9 points (0.8%) to 115.4 in the week to December 13. Confidence is up 4.7% over the year and above the average of 111.4 since 2014.
Three of the five components of the index fell in the latest week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was  down from +10 to +6;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was  down from +29 to +26;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was  down from +2 to 0;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was  unchanged at +10;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was  up from +31 to +35 points – a near six-month high.
Reserve Bank Board minutes
The key quotes from the Board minutes:
Stronger growth expected: “Overall, the forecasts for the Australian economy were for output growth to strengthen gradually over the next two years as the drag on GDP growth from falling mining investment gradually diminished and activity progressively shifted to non-mining sectors of the economy. Business surveys suggested that there had been an improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors over the past year, which had been accompanied by stronger growth in employment and a steady rate of unemployment.”
Job market: “Employment growth had been strong in October and the unemployment rate had declined to 5.9%, although in trend terms it remained in the 6–6% range it had been in since the middle of 2014. Members observed that unemployment rates for most states were in the range of 5ó–6ó%.”
Housing market: “Growth in lending to investors in the housing market appeared to have eased, with a moderation in the pace of growth in housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne over recent months. Housing price growth had mostly remained subdued in other cities. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing would reduce demand slightly, overall conditions remained quite accommodative. Members observed that supervisory measures had been helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.”
Inflation: “Even so, members recognised that there was still evidence of spare capacity in the economy, including in the labour market. Wage growth remained low and underlying inflation was expected to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.”
Outlook: “Based on the available data and the forecasts, the Board decided that leaving the cash rate unchanged at this meeting was appropriate. Members judged that the outlook for inflation may afford some scope for a further easing of monetary policy should that be appropriate to lend support to demand. The Board would continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy would most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target”
<a href="/images/2015/12/15/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-16%20at%209.46.28%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/15/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-16%20at%209.46.28%20AM.png" alt="">
New car sales:
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) new vehicle sales rose by 1%in November after a 3.7% slide in October. Passenger car sales rose by 0.7%, while sales of sports utility vehicles fell by 1.6%. But sales of “other” vehicles (includes utilities, panel vans, cab chassis, goods carrying vans, rigid trucks, prime movers, non-freight carrying trucks, and buses) rose by 6.6%.
New vehicles sales were up by 6% over the year. Passenger car sales in October were down by 3.6% while SUVs sales were up by 17% and “other vehicles” were up by 10.1%.
In rolling annual terms, a total of 1,152,601 new vehicles were sold over the year to November – a record high.
Annual sales of SUVs (403,698) hit fresh record highs in November, while annual sales of other vehicles rose from 229,635 to 232,341. Sales of passenger vehicles stood at 516,562 in the year to November, down from 517,899 in the year to October 2015.
Residential property prices
The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its Residential Property Price indexes.
“The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 2.0%t in the September quarter 2015. The index rose 10.7% through the year to the September quarter 2015. The capital city residential property price indexes rose in Sydney (+3.1 per cent), Melbourne (+2.9 per cent), Brisbane (+1.3 per cent), Adelaide (+1.2 per cent), Canberra (+1.3 per cent) and Hobart (+0.5 per cent) and fell in Perth (-2.4 per cent) and Darwin (-0.4 per cent).
Annually, residential property prices rose in Sydney (+19.9 per cent), Melbourne (+9.9 per cent), Canberra (+4.0 per cent), Brisbane (+3.8 per cent), Adelaide (+3.5 per cent) and Hobart (+1.7 per cent) and fell in Perth (-3.3 per cent) and Darwin (-2.0 per cent).
The ABS notes that as at September 2015 there were 9.57 million homes in Australia and the average price was $612,200.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of industry data. The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries releases estimates of car sales on the third business day of the month. The figures highlight the strength of consumer spending as well as conditions facing auto &amp; components companies.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides quarterly data on residential prices. The figures provide further perspectives on the state of the housing purchase sector.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank will be keeping a close eye on how the non-mining business sector evolves. The outlook to invest and create more employment will be a driving factor on any further rate cuts.
CommSec expects no change to interest rate settings in 2016, although the risks lie with another rate cut given the low inflation outcomes.
<a href="/images/2015/12/15/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-16%20at%209.45.34%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2015/12/15/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-16%20at%209.45.34%20AM.png" alt="">
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a> 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Content RBA, confident consumers: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board were a little more upbeat on the economy than we saw in November. 
In the key section of the minutes ‘Considerations for Monetary Policy’, the Board noted that “recent data had generally been positive”. That compared with the November minutes which noted that “recent data … suggested that the moderate economic expansion had continued”. 
We also saw a more upbeat analysis of the labour market. In December the Board notes that very low interest rates and the lower currency were leading to “stronger employment growth”. In November this recognition of an improving labour market was restricted to the services sector. 
It should be noted that this more optimistic assessment was reached without the benefit of knowing the stronger than expected GDP report (released the day following the meeting) and the November employment report which showed a fall in the unemployment rate to 5.9%. 
Of course despite this more optimistic tone there was no change to the soft easing bias which was signalled using the same language as in November: “Members judged that the outlook for inflation may afford some scope for a further easing of monetary policy”. That approach continues to be justified by members recognising that there was still evidence of spare capacity in the economy including in the labour market and that wages growth remained low with inflation expected to be consistent with the target. 
Commentary on the Australian dollar was unchanged from November: “the exchange rate was adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices”. We are not surprised by this sentiment given that the Governor’s statement used the same approach. However as we noted in commenting on the Governor’s statement this approach could have justifiably been strengthened given that since the November meeting the AUD had increased from US0.715 to US0.725 and the iron ore price had fallen around 15%. There was a case for the Bank to question whether the AUD should have been adjusting to the recent weakness. No doubt the Bank will be monitoring this situation and if it continues it is likely to strengthen its language in the February minutes. 
There was indeed indirect recognition of this point. In November the minutes noted “Members noted that the outlook for Australia’s terms of trade was little changed”. There is no such recognition in the December minutes leaving open the possibility that reflecting this recent weakness in both iron ore and oil prices the Bank may now be further revising down its growth forecasts for the terms of trade. Westpac has certainly done that with our outlook for 2016 indicating a further fall of 10%, with implications for both household expenditure and business investment. It is likely that these adjustments will now be considered for the forecasts in the February Statement on Monetary Policy. 
Outlook
The Board clearly intended these minutes to signal no change in the policy stance. That is consistent with our own view for 2016. However, given the recent weakness in the terms of trade, risks to our view remain to the downside.
 
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA more positive on the Australian economy: Westpac's Bill Evans

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes from the RBA’s December Board meeting, at which the cash rate was left unchanged at 2%, don’t give too much new information on the Bank’s thinking but have a marginally more positive tone. 
On household consumption, the RBA seems less worried about the outlook, noting the improvement in retail conditions and removing the reference to the risks to the outlook included in the minutes from the November meeting. The Bank is expecting consumption growth to lift to above-average rates from 2016, and while retail outcomes have improved, we continue to see this forecast as somewhat ambitious, given soft wages growth is likely to weigh on consumption for some time. 
The Board seems broadly comfortable with the housing outlook, noting that dwelling investment is likely to continue to grow but at a slower rate. The minutes did, however, highlight that it was still too early to assess the effect of the recent increase in lenders’ mortgage rates on the housing market. 
On non-mining business spending, the Board seems almost unperturbed by the weakness in the CAPEX survey, noting that while non-mining business investment intentions remained weak, business condition were “clearly above average” in the household and business services sector, which were less capital intensive. 
On the labour market, while noting the improvement in the unemployment rate and measures of job vacancies, the Board continues to point to soft wages growth as evidence of spare capacity in the labour market. 
On the AUD, the minutes contained very little commentary, only noting that the AUD had appreciated against the USD “in contrast to most other currencies”. 
Consistent with the post-meeting statement, the minutes again noted that the “outlook for inflation may afford some scope for a further easing of monetary policy should that be appropriate to lend support to demand”. 
We continue to expect the RBA to cut rates next year. We recently pushed back the timing of those moves, and now expect the Bank to cut rates by 25bps in May and August. We still expect the stimulus from housing and the lower AUD to fade next year, but the recent strength in the labour market precludes a cut as early as February. For 2016, there is also a possibility that further rises in lending rates from the banks, to offset regulatory changes that have raised minimum capital requirements, would cause an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions. With the inflation outlook providing no impediment to lower rates, we think the Bank has scope to provide further stimulus. 
This week’s FOMC meeting will also be important to the monetary policy discussion, firstly, to gauge the market impact of the first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade; and secondly to absorb the Fed’s forward guidance on the likely trajectory of US interest rates. 
We are also likely to get a further update on the Bank’s thinking over the next week or so, with a newspaper interview with Glenn Stevens likely to be published, consistent with the experience of the past few years.
Felicity Emmett co-head of Australian economics, ANZ Research and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/felicity-emmett/5a/3ba/256" target="_blank">here</a>.
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RBA feeling more comfortable: ANZ's Felicity Emmett

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GUEST OBSERVER
We’re launching into yet another silly season, and there will no doubt be the annual holiday splurge – in fact, one estimate puts our nation’s Christmas spending to be around $8.9 billion.
And that’s on gifts alone! There is, however, a ray of hope for your back pocket: with variable interest rates on the move this month, you have even more opportunity to shop around for a better rate. On the off-chance that these rate rises continue, an offset can provide even more control over your loan by letting you slice interest off repayments based on your hard-earned savings.
Here are the lowest home loan rates on finder.com.au that also allow a 100% offset account.
finder.com.au’s lowest variable home loan rates with a 100% offset account
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/mortgage-house-summer-home-loan-review" target="_blank">Mortgage House Summer Home Loan</a>: 3.94%
With no application or ongoing fees, plus redraw facilities on top of your offset account, this home loan can provide some key cushioning for potential homeowners. Just be aware that you’re also signing up for a $395 legal, $200 Settlement and $450 discharge fee.
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/boq-clear-path-rate-variable-home-loan#14747" target="_blank">Bank of Queensland Clear Path</a>: 3.99%
The Clear Path home loan will allow you to borrow up to 95% of the property’s value, while also waiving application fees and allowing for free redraws and repayments, which could pad out your mortgage nicely. You will have to crank the budgeting up a notch however, as you’ll then be factoring in a $10 monthly fee and a once-off settlement fee of $150. It’s advised you take some time to sit down and calculate the lifetime costs and benefits of your mortgage, especially in the case of revolving expenses. 
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/bankwest-complete-home-loan-package-variable#10460" target="_blank">Bankwest Complete Home Loan Package</a>: 4.08%
Let it be said from the get-go that this is a package deal, which usually entails an additional expense of some sort – in this case it’s a considerable $395 annual fee. This might be offset in the first year by no application or legal fees, and its split options, redraw and extra repayment facilities could be enough to pull this loan over the line for you. When it comes to considerable annual fees, it’s a good idea to make sure there’s enough funds sitting in your offset account to negate the rolling expense by the time it hits every year.
finder.com.au’s lowest variable home loan rates with a 100% offset account
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/beyond-bank-total-home-loan-package#12549" target="_blank">Beyond Bank Total Home Loan Package</a>: 4.09%
Perhaps just as powerful as a 100% offset account is the ability to also make free repayments, and this loan allows the best of both worlds. You can also borrow up to 95% of the property value, along with the ability to redraw funds should your financial standing get shaky. Again, this is a packaged home loan, and you will be slugged with a $395 annual fee, which will be exacerbated in the first year by a $150 settlement fee.
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/mortgage-house-100-offset-fixed-rate-home-loan-review#13193" target="_blank">Mortgage House 100% Offset</a>: 4.39%
Nothing says freedom like no monthly or annual service fees – which is something recipients of this loan will experience. There is also no application fee tied to this loan, and you will be able to make additional repayments and be able to redraw. Just make sure you have some funds available at all times, as the $200 settlement fee will hit you in the earlier stage of the loan, while the $450 discharge fee will come around at the tail-end of the loan.
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/st-george-fixed-rate-home-loan#1035" target="_blank">St. George Fixed Rate</a>: 4.44%
This loan comes with a waived legal and valuation fee, along with the ability to split your loan and make extra repayments and redraws. That being said, there are some serious fees that come with this product, including a $600 application, $10 monthly service, $100 settlement and $350 discharge fee. This loan could be your best option – but without doing your homework first, these fees could drown your budget and leave your head underwater for the next 30 years. Tread the water carefully!
Bessie Hassan is consumer advocate at <a href="https://www.finder.com.au" target="_blank">finder.com.au</a>.
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3.94% Mortgage House Summer special tops Finder's December home loans roundup

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<div>The US Federal Reserve is set to lift interest rates for the first time since June 2006.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 211,000 jobs in November, while the October result was revised up from +271,000 to a smashing +298,000, and September also saw a positive revision from +137,000 to +145,000 (for a total of +35,000 revisions).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After 68 consecutive months of employment gains, the Fed is finally ready to hike interest rates following its December 15-16 meeting.  
</div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/7/BLS1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/7/BLS1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Average hourly earnings have increased by 2.3% over the year, with the economy having gained some 13 million jobs since its nadir.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/12/7/BLs2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/7/BLs2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Average monthly employment gains this year have been solid at 210,000, although a bit lower than the 260,000 seen in 2014.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/7/BLS3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/7/BLS3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate was unchanged at a 7.5 year low of 5%.</div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/12/7/BLS4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fed to hike. It's been a while coming!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Fed set for lift off: Pete Wargent

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Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens has joked the price of iron ore has even, on occasion, displaced from page one of newspapers the price on which Australians typically focus most intensely – that of a house.
He was speaking in Perth, with the RBA board meeting for the first time in Perth since September 2011. He noted the ‘super-cycle’ in commodity prices, and the associated surge in capital spending, had been of national and international significance.  
"I don't need to tell you that quite a lot has changed in the intervening period.
"At that time, the price of a tonne of iron ore was about US$170.
:A tonne of hard coking coal was bringing in about US$300.
"These were among the prices that saw Australia's terms of trade soar to a level some 75 per cent above their average for the preceding century.
"Few countries have seen such a windfall.
"These extraordinary prices had already, by that time, triggered a massive investment program, which was lifting capacity.
"Four years ago, Australia was shipping about a million tonnes of iron ore each day, which was already double the rate of 2004 - bit under a million tonnes of coal left our shores daily.
"By 2011, capital spending by the resources sector had already roughly trebled since 2005.
"It would peak the following year after rising by a further 50 per cent."
He said the results of that investment have come on stream, or soon will.
"Today, Australia ships around 2 million tonnes of iron ore and 1 million tonnes of coal per day.
"The investment was not just in iron ore and coal.
"On forecasts of strong demand from Asia – not just China but Korea and Japan as well – massive investments are under way in gas.
"LNG exports have begun from some of the Queensland projects and are expected to increase strongly over the coming years.
"As the WA projects come on line in the next few years, Australia's total LNG production capacity will reach over 80 million tonnes per year.
"This compares with a production capacity of around 10 million tonnes a decade ago."
As it happens, about the time the Board was meeting in 2011, resource prices and Australia's terms of trade were about at their peak.
"And what a peak it was.
"On a ten-year average basis, the terms of trade exceeded anything seen for at least a century.
"This was not just a very brief spike like some commodity price events have been (such as the early 1950s rise in the price of wool).
"It was quite persistent.
"Not permanent, but quite persistent.
"Nonetheless, the peak was four years ago.
"Today the price of iron ore is about US$40 per tonne, and coking coal around US$75.
"At a national level, Australia's terms of trade, having been through an extraordinary surge, have fallen by a third and are still declining."
But even at those reduced prices, iron ore is still bringing a price 60 per cent higher than it did in 2000.
Natural gas prices are 50 per cent or more above their 2000 level. 
"The spill-overs of these activities have been felt around the country.
"For the fifty years up to 2005, resources sector investment had averaged just over 1½ per cent of national GDP.
"Periodically, in a boom it tended to reach a peak of perhaps 3 per cent of GDP.
"While the episode is not yet over, at this point the economy overall has been recording growth."
Noting the RBA do not make detailed forecasts at state level, he noted previously, economic activity was very strong in the west and the north-east, driven by the investment boom, while in the south-east of the country it was somewhat subdued.
"Now, as the mining investment boom in the west is in the reversal phase, economic activity here in WA is more subdued, while in the south-east it is picking up.
"Consumer spending and employment growth in WA, which had outpaced the national average by a wide margin, have come back to be a bit below the national average.
"The rate of WA's population growth has slowed.
"Housing prices have declined a little, while those in Sydney and Melbourne have, at least until recently, risen at quite a clip.
"Measures of business conditions in WA are at about their long-run average, having been a long way above that for some years.
"So WA has ‘come back to the pack’, though the pack has actually picked up some speed in the meantime."
He concluded remembering the positive legacy of the events of the past decade.
Household net worth in WA in 2013/14 (the latest available data), at about $950 000 per household, was a good deal higher than in any other state.
"Since then, housing prices in WA have declined while those in some other places have risen, so this gap may have diminished.
"Nonetheless, my guess is that, among the Australian states, the citizens of Western Australia are on average, probably still among the richest.
"Even if the others gradually close the gap over time, as they well might, you are better off for having had the boom."
He said new opportunities for growth will emerge, resulting from things like the growth in the middle class of Asia, with all what that means for demand for services as well as for energy and agricultural production.
"The growth of India is surely also a potential opportunity for WA – facing as you do the Indian Ocean, and with the advantage of relative lesser distance.
"A mere eight hour flight time!" 
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RBA governor Glenn Stevens says WA has come back to the pack

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GDP grew by 0.9%qtr in Q3, broadly as anticipated (market median 0.8% and Westpac 0.9%).
Annual growth rebounded to 2.5%, which was a little firmer than expected (market 2.4% and Westpac 2.3%). 
Economic conditions remain uneven and choppy from quarter to quarter.
In Q3, exports (resources and services) were once again the key growth engine, business investment and public investment were major negatives, housing is responding to low interest rates and consumer spending strengthened a little on firmer wage income numbers. The global backdrop and the income environment remain challenging, with the terms of trade down a further -2.3%qtr, -10.4%yr in the quarter. 
The details
Net exports contributed 1.5ppts to Q3 growth, more than reversing a surprise 0.8ppts subtraction in Q2.
Exports are a key growth engine, +4.6%qtr, as the mining boom pays dividend and as service exports (education, travel and business services) advance, boosted by the lower AUD. 
Also, imports contracted in Q3, -2.4%qtr, including a sizeable fall in service imports as the lower AUD dollar bites, encouraging Australians to redirect spending from overseas to domestically – particularly travel, as well as retail. 
New business investment contracted by a sizeable -4.6%qtr, -11.0%yr.
The mining investment downturn is a sizeable headwind and will remain so into 2016. In addition, non-mining investment weakened in the quarter, with declines in equipment spending and non-residential building. 
Public demand, having surprised with a 2.2% jump in Q2, reversed, down 0.9% in Q3, including a hefty 8.2% drop in investment. 
Going forward, public demand is unlikely to be strong, but a rebound from this sizeable fall is in prospect. Of note, NSW and Victorian state governments are embarking on new transport infrastructure projects. 
Household consumption provided a positive surprise, strengthening a little to grow by 0.7% in Q3, following a 0.6% rise in Q2 (revised up from 0.5%). Annual growth grinded higher to 2.7%, up from 2.5%.
Wage incomes were a little more supportive in the quarter, up 1.1%qtr, reflective of stronger employment results. In addition, households allowed their saving rate to shift a little lower, to a still high 9.0% from 9.4%. 
Home building activity grew by 0.9%, with new dwelling construction up a solid 2.0%qtr and a strong 12.8%yr in response to record low interest rates and pent-up demand. However, renovation work slipped, down 0.9%qtr, following a 2.4% rise. 
Domestic demand contracted by a sizeable 0.5%qtr in Q3, the largest decline since early 2009, reflective of the weakness of business investment and public investment in the period. Over the year, domestic demand grew by 0.8%. 
Across the three estimates of GDP
The expenditure measure printed at 0.9%qtr, 1.9%yr
GDP Income was 1.1%qtr, 3.1%yr
GDP Production was 0.8%qtr, 2.6%yr  
Implications for Monetary Policy
The Reserve bank will be encouraged by this report. Recall that at this time last year the September 2014 report printed 0.3% compared to the current print of 0.9% with through the year growth slipping a little to 2.7%. 
This time through the year growth has lifted from 1.9% to 2.5%. In particular household spending has printed 0.7% compared with a disappointing 0.5% last year and growth in annual household spending has been boosted from 2.5% to 2.7%. A modest fall in the savings rate from 9.4% to 9.0% also points to consumers being prepared to supplement modest income growth to lift the pace of spending. 
The Bank will also find the large contribution to growth from net exports provides some encouragement from an employment perspective with net services exports playing a more prominent role than a year ago. 
While last year Westpac interpreted the September quarter national accounts as providing a key justification for its forecast of a February rate cut we see no comparable case here. While markets held a 25% chance of a move in February we expect that as they have time to digest this result those folks favouring another move will be forced to push the timing out to May. 
For our part we remain comfortable with our call that rates will remain on hold in 2016 with downside risks. 
<h2>Strategy</h2>
<h2>For the AUD</h2>
AUD/USD approached the GDP data at 0.7325, consolidating its gains in NY trade. The 0.9% headline was a touch above consensus, producing an AUD/USD bounce to a high of 0.7345. This was a fresh high since 15 October. However, within 20 minutes the Aussie was back to 0.7315/20. Given that the details of the report were mostly encouraging and that RBA governor Stevens (speaking in Perth) deemed the data “not a bad outcome” and a touch higher than the RBA had expected, the AUD pullback suggests some fatigue after its sharp rally.
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Economic conditions uneven and choppy from quarter to quarter: Westpac's Bill Evans

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Borrowers disappointed by the RBA’s decision to keep interest rates on hold can still get an early Christmas rate cut on their home loan by haggling their lender for a better deal, according to <a href="https://mozo.com.au/" target="_blank">Mozo.com.au</a>.
In a recent mystery shopping exercise, Mozo staff posing as borrowers were able to haggle huge discounts of up to 1.25% off the standard variable home loan rate, simply by calling up the banks and asking. 
“The Big 4 are competing more fiercely for owner occupiers in the wake of the crackdown on investor lending, with discounts on offer to these borrowers the biggest we’ve seen,” said Mozo Director Kirsty Lamont.
Mozo data shows that by haggling 1.25% off the average standard variable rate, borrowers could save $223 a month on their repayments on a $300,000, 30-year loan.
“When pushed banks are prepared to offer better discounts beyond their advertised home loan deals which can lead to savings of $2676 each year for borrowers,” said Lamont.
As well as discounts on interest rates, lenders also offered other bonuses including cash back offers and frequent flyer points.
“With 27 home loan providers increasing their variable rates in this month alone, borrowers need to be prepared to do some hard negotiating to get the biggest discounts.” 
Here are Mozo’s top tips to get a better deal on your home loan:
1.    Don’t settle for the advertised price
2.    Research what the best deals are on the market and what competitor lenders are offering
3.    Start negotiating only when the lender knows you’re a good loan candidate
4.    If you can’t haggle on the interest rate, haggle on other aspects of the loan like asking them to waive your home loan application fees
5.    Be willing to move other banking products such as credit cards and transaction accounts to your new lender.
 
Kirsty Lamont is marketing director of <a href="https://mozo.com.au/" target="_blank">Mozo</a>.
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Five tips for a better home loan deal: Mozo's Kirsty Lamont 

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GUEST OBSERVER 
Dwelling approvals: Dwelling approvals rose by 3.9 % in October, boosted by a 10.6 % increase in apartment approvals. Over the past year a record 233,180 new homes were approved.
The terms of trade (ratio of export to import prices) fell by 2.4 % to a 9-year low of 83.3 in the September quarter. But the terms of trade is still up 4 % on the 20-year average.
Record foreign debt: Net foreign debt rose by $25.5 billion to a record $993.8 billion as at the end of the September quarter.
Trade sector adds to economic growth: Net exports (exports less imports) will add 1.5 percentage points to economic growth in the September quarter. CommSec estimates that the economy grew by 0.9 % in the September quarter to be up 2.5 % over the year.
China purchasing manager indexes: The National Bureau of Statistics measure for manufacturing fell from 49.8 to 49.6 in November; the services index lifted from 53.1 to 53.6.
What does it all mean?
Courtesy of stronger demand for our exports, we expect the economy grew by almost 1.0 % in the September quarter. Last quarter media were comparing Australia to Greece after the economy grew by just 0.2 %. Will we see media comparing our economy with India or China if the economy grows as expected in the September quarter?
We can never become too complacent with our foreign debt position. In the past quarter our debt levels rose to almost $1 trillion dollars – not an event we should celebrate. The good news is that Australians are also investing overseas with latest data at record highs.
Dwelling approvals lifted by healthy 3.9 % October. From a longer term sense the lift in home building over the past couple of years has been extraordinary. Over the past year a record 233,180 new homes were approved – a boom that will continue to support economic activity over the next 12-18 months. Interestingly with the tightening in bank lending standards, it is pretty clear that the lift in supply should result in a much more balanced housing sector - as was highlighted by the pullback in home prices in five of the eight capital cities last month.
<a href="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%203.56.03%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%203.56.03%20PM.png" alt="" width="803" height="275">
What do the figures show?
 Building Approvals:
Dwelling approvals rose by 3.9% in October after rising 2.3% in September.  Over the past year a record 233,180 new homes were approved.
House approvals fell by 2.1% in October (private sector fell by 2.1%). Meanwhile ‘lumpy’ apartment approvals rose by 10.6% in October after rising by 7.5% in September. Private sector apartment approvals rose by 10.6% in October.
Dwelling approvals are up 12.3% on a year ago with house approvals down by 2.3% while apartments are up by 30.2%.
Across states and territories in October: NSW approvals rose by 22.0%; Victoria rose by 21.2%; Queensland fell by 28.7%; South Australia rose by 23.4%; Western Australia fell by 1.1%; Tasmania fell by 41.6%. In trend terms, approvals rose by 7.1% in the Northern Territory and fell 10.8% in the ACT.
The value of all commercial and residential building approvals rose by 6.4% in October after falling by 2.7% in September. Residential approvals rose by 9.8% with new building up by 10.5% while alterations &amp; additions rose by 3.7%. Commercial building fell by 1% in October to be up 19.6% over the year.
 Balance of Payments
The broadest measure of Australia's external position -  the current account – improved in the September quarter (smaller deficit), with the deficit falling from $20,506 million to $18,104 million.
The balance of goods and services was in deficit by $7,438 million after a $10,946 million deficit in the June quarter. Exports rose in real terms by 5.4% while imports fell by 1.8%.
At the end of the June quarter,  net foreign equity was $70.99 billion – essentially Australians own more assets overseas than foreign investors own here in Australia. And the positive net foreign equity position rose by $7.37 billion over the September quarter.
The trade sector (exports less imports) will add 1.5 percentage points to economic growth in the September quarter.
Terms of trade (ratio of export to import prices) fell by 2.4% to 83.3 in the September quarter – lowest level since June quarter 2006. But the terms of trade is still up 4.0% on the 20-year average.
Net foreign debt rose by $25.5 billion to a record $993.8 billion as at the end of the September quarter.
The debt servicing ratio (net income on foreign debt to goods and services credits) worsened from 7.4% to 7.7% in the September quarter.
 Government Finances
Government consumption spending rose by 0.7% in the September quarter after a 1.7% increase in the June quarter. But total public investment fell by 9.2% in the September quarter after rising by 2.1% in the June quarter. Overall, spending by the government sector  fell by 1.2% in the September quarter after rising 1.8% in the June quarter.
<a href="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%204.07.51%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%204.07.51%20PM.png" alt="" width="609" height="199">
 
 Consumer sentiment
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.7 points (1.5%) to 112.8 in the week to November 29 Confidence is down 1.0% over the year but above the average of 111.7 since 2014.
Just two of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was  down from +9 to +4;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was  up from +23 to +25;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was  down from +2 to -2;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was  down from +10 to +6;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was  up from +28 to +31.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Bureau of Statistics' monthly  Building Approvals release contains figures on local council approvals to build residential structures such as homes and units as well as commercial premises such as offices and shops.
Approval is one of the first stages of the construction ‘pipeline’ and is thus a key leading indicator of future activity.
An increase in approvals would point to stronger future activity for construction-related companies.
The quarterly Balance of Payments figures have few short-term effects on financial markets. The importance of the data is merely to highlight Australia’s trading position with the rest of the world as well as the contribution of foreign trade (exports less imports) to the latest estimates of economic growth.
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The near $1 trillion in foreign debt will serve as a brake on the Aussie dollar, which at present seems a little high compared with the level of commodity prices.
A solid reading on economic growth in the September quarter will ensure that the Reserve Bank stays on the interest rate sidelines.
 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Exports to lift growth, record building approvals: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
In a move that surprised no one, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 2% at its board meeting. 
Moreover the post-meeting statement was a virtual carbon copy of last month’s. Clearly the Bank is waiting and watching the data. The labour market numbers are important, as are the inflation numbers due out in late January. But in the meantime, the data the Bank will be most interested in will be tomorrow’s Q3 household spending numbers. Internationally, any market volatility around the US Fed’s meeting on 16-17 December (AEDT) will be of interest, even though a rate hike is priced by the market. 
The changes to the statement were minimal: 
• The improvement in growth in business credit was noted. 
• The language around housing finance was changed slightly – the statement continued to highlight the easing in lending to investors, but omitted the comment about owner-occupier finance picking up. 
• The last paragraph reiterated last month’s comment that “members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand”. 
 
In our view, soft inflation probably does give the RBA the scope to cut rates to give the economy a bit of stimulus. The question will be if, by February when the Bank next meets, it judges that demand does need a bit more of a kick-along. 
Until then, each data release will take on added significance. The labour market data are clearly important, in particularly whether the unemployment rate’s dip below 6% is sustained. The inflation number in late January will also be key. Tomorrow’s Q3 GDP, while somewhat dated, will be important in giving a guide to where things are at currently. 
What will be particularly important in tomorrow’s release will be the household spending numbers. The RBA is forecasting consumption to lift to above average from 2016. Above average is about 3½% y/y. It’s currently running at 2½%, so it will need to accelerate pretty quickly to keep the RBA comfortable with that forecast. With household incomes under pressure, due mainly to soft wages growth, we are doubtful that households will have the capacity to lift their spending to this degree. So tomorrow’s numbers are important to gauge how achievable the Bank’s forecasts are. It will be one of the key numbers the RBA will be watching.
Felicity Emmett co-head of Australian economics, ANZ Research and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/felicity-emmett/5a/3ba/256" target="_blank">here</a>.
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