<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.

A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.

Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]

“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.

From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.

The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]

Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.

A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.

Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]

Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.

“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.

Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]

Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.

The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.

“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”

The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.

The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]

Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.

The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

Interest Rates

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Market analysts are polarised about the the future direction of monetary policy, according to the finder.com.au comparison website survey. 
More than half of the experts (56 percent, or 23/41) in the <a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=1e7bd1b91e&amp;e=58cd8ffd03">finder.com.au </a>Reserve Bank Survey, the largest of its kind in Australia, believe the Reserve Bank will slash the official cost of borrowing at today’s board meeting. In a strongly divided result, 44 percent (18/41) are predicting the cash rate will hold at 1.75 percent. 
However, of those who believe the cash rate will remain unchanged, the majority of these experts (16/18, 89 percent) are predicting a cash rate cut before the year is out. November is tipped as the month we can expect this.  
The majority of experts (58 percent) predict the cash rate will bottom-out at 1.50 percent this cycle. However, only two experts who weighed in on the cash rate cycle predict that it won’t fall lower than its current rate of 1.75 percent. 
Some experts are starting to consider the possibility of rates falling lower than 1.5 percent, with 18 percent predicting the cash rate to bottom-out at 1.25 percent. A further seven economists are predicting the rate to fall even lower this cycle, with Jordan Eliseo of ABC Bullion predicting the cash rate to hit 0.50 percent before it starts to rise, and Angus Raine of Raine &amp; Horne predicting an eventual low of 0.25 percent.
Here’s what our RBA expert panel had to say:
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Cut): "It's a close call but we think the RBA will cut next week - signifying their intention to arrest the decline in inflationary pressure, which is widespread across the economy today."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Cut): "June quarter inflation data was not low enough to make an RBA rate cut certain, particularly given that recent economic data has been reasonably good. However, on balance we expect that the RBA will move again to help ensure that inflation expectations do not become entrenched below 2 percent as has been the case in several other countries, so that there is reasonable confidence that inflation will move back into the target zone in a reasonable time frame and to head off a rebound in the $A that will likely follow if it doesn’t cut again."
Dr John Hewson, ANU (Hold): "They will wait and see low inflation number confirmed."
Peter Munckton, Bank of Queensland (Hold): "The RBA are happy with current level of rates." 
Steven Pasas, Bank Of Sydney (Hold): "CPI came in higher than expected."
David Bassanese, BetaShares (Cut): "Annual underlying inflation has been confirmed as running 0.5 percent lower than the RBA expected 6 months ago."
Kishti Sen on behalf Richard Robinson, BIS Shrapnel (Hold): "No need to cut as economic growth is good, unemployment rate is stable and CPI likely to rise over next year as petrol prices rise. The RBA also needs to keep some policy bullets up its sleeve for when economy slows in the wake of coming residential downturn." 
Michael Blythe, CBA (Cut): "Low inflation."
Dr Andrew Wilson, Domain Group (Hold): "Inflation low but steady and other economic indicators slightly more positive recently  - will likely keep powder dry but still a solid case for a cut."
Scott Morgan, Greater Bank (Hold): "The evidence for a rate cut is not compelling enough at this stage. A rate change is unlikely to fix the factors influencing low inflation. In some respects, low inflation is a global issue. To pull the trigger on a rate cut now is wasted ammunition." 
Dr Mark Brimble, Griffith University (Cut): "With inflation remained well below the RBA's target range, a building range of head winds (including the expected large scale job losses from heavy manufacturing next year and a stubborn currency) together with APRA's intervention in the credit markets beginning to impact, the RBA has a close call to make, but is likely to want to get ahead of the market and cut rates to offer further support to the economy."
Atul Narang, HashChing (Cut): "The annual inflation is at just 1 percent, the weakest annual rise since 1999. It is well below RBA's target range of 2-3 percent so there is a strong chance of a rate cut. RBA's expectation that underlying inflation will be below 2-3 percent range until mid 2018 is based on the assumption that interest rates would fall to 1.5 percent." 
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank (Hold): "The inflation rate is sufficiently high to permit the RBA to stay on hold for now." 
Shane Garrett, HIA (Cut): "Inflation is at a low level, giving the RBA more room for flexibility on rates." 
Paul Bloxham, HSBC (Cut): "Inflation is too low." 
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Cut): "Inflation remains consistent with further easing, the question of timing is still open and the RBA may choose to delay until later in the year given the growth outlook has not deteriorated materially as yet." 
Robert Montgomery, Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (Cut): "The RBA will be hesitant to push the cash rate lower than it already is, however the June quarter inflation figures are well below the RBA’s target band of 2-3 percent, making an August rate cut likely." 
Michael Witts, ING Direct (Cut): "The inflation print and the slightly weaker domestic economy together with the higher AUD provides scope for the RBA to adjust the cash rate."
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Cut): "It’s a line-ball decision that really could go either way. In the end, with inflation at its weakest in nearly 20 years, we believe the RBA will move to drop the cash rate." 
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "It's consistent with its previous hesitancy to cut even in the presence of its own forecasts of inadequate growth." 
Lynne Jordan, Liberty (Cut): "The Reserve Bank’s cash rate decision hinges on inflation, housing and labour market data – and, unfortunately, these indicators are just not leaning in the right direction to constitute a hold. The labour market has lost momentum, low wage growth is impacting consumer spending and, just this week, we’ve seen another disappointing report on inflation. RBA action and a rate cut to a new record low, is definitely on the cards in the not too distant future."
Grant Harrod, LJ Hooker (Cut): "The growth of house prices is moderating.  Added to this, inflation is at very low levels and concerns around the global economy should see the RBA cut the cash rate at its August meeting."
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Cut): "Low inflation and unemployment is too high."
John Caelli, ME (Cut): "Employment data remains soft and inflation remains well below the 2-3% desired band. The Australian dollar is also stronger than what the RBA would like."
Mark Crosby, Melbourne Business School (Hold): "While local inflation remains low the strongest driver of rate changes should remain changes to major central bank settings in coming months."
Emily Dabbs, Moody's Analytics (Cut): "Inflation data for the June quarter indicates that price pressures remain weak. The RBA preferred measure of inflation remains below its 2 percent to 3 percent target range." 
Jessica Darnbrough, Mortgage Choice (Cut): "The latest inflation data was in line with expectations, but low by historical standards. I believe this will provide the Reserve Bank with the incentive they need to cut the cash rate for the second time this year."
Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): "Economic data has if anything been a little stronger than expected in recent times and overall activity remains OK. While inflation remains low, the labour market appears to be holding up well as does the housing market. These were the three key variables called out by the RBA as most important for their next rate decision in the minutes of the July Board meeting. On balance, these variables suggest the RBA will leave rates on hold, but retain an easing bias as it takes further time to see how the economy develops. That said, it will be a close call." 
Saul Eslake, Economist (Hold): "Because Q2 inflation wasn't materially lower than the RBA had anticipated when it revised its forecasts after the Q1 result (the revision which prompted the most recent rate cut in May), and because other data released since the July Board meeting haven't warranted any downward revisions to the RBA's assessment of the outlook for economic growth. There are downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation, but the RBA would be better advised holding what "firepower" it still has for a time when the case for using it is stronger."
Alan Oster, Nab (Hold): "It’s line ball decision but the economy in non mining is still doing well as is the labour market.  Inflation remains low but no urgency to cut unlike May."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "The RBA likes to set its own agenda, not follow the herd mentality."
Matthew Peter, QIC (Cut): "The Q2 inflation outturn is consistent with RBA forecasts, which sees inflation remaining below the target band for an extended period. Risks around the flow-on effect of BREXIT, potential slowdown in China, threat to international trade agreements and geopolitical risks pose sufficient reasons for the RBA to cut."
Noel Whittaker , QUT (Hold): "No urgent need to drop."
Angus Raine, Raine &amp; Horne (Hold): "The recent Federal election wait and see approach."
Ken, Sayer (Hold): "We expect a drop in Sep 2016." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing Pty Ltd (Hold): "Stable employment market, confirmation of government, and stabilised growth in the overall Australian market." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold): "Inflation is very low, but it is in line with expectations. If they wanted to follow up the May rate cut with another, they would have done so in June or provided a stronger indication that they were close to cutting. The low inflation outlook keeps alive the chances of a rate cut this year, but given recent RBA commentary, they do not seem to be in a position to lower rates just yet." 
Steven Milch, Suncorp (Cut): "Persistently below target inflation."
Scott Haslem, UBS (Cut): "The issue for the RBA is whether Q2's 'in line' inflation is low enough to out-work the 'implied' 25bp cut in their May SoMP forecasts, or whether the post-UK-leave resilience of both financial markets &amp; global confidence, and the strong dataflow in the US &amp; domestically, leaves the RBA drifting away from their clearer easing bias at the July meeting, back to their 'neutral' post May cut stance. On balance, we believe Q2's CPI is enough to get the RBA across the line for a (final) cut in August, but the lack of downward surprise, &amp; better recent data, makes this a close call."
Nicki Hutley, Urbis (Cut): "Inflation is significantly below the Bank's target."
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA August rate cut to be a close call: finder.com.au

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The regional mutual lender Newcastle Permanent has dropped home loan interest rates by up to 45 basis points ahead of the today's Reserve Bank monetary policy meeting.
Newcastle Permanent has reduced its two-year year fixed home loan rate by 5 basis points, its three-year fixed home loan rate by 10 basis points and its four-year fixed home loan rate by 45 basis points. 
All rates are now under 4 percent with the new two, three and four-year fixed rates advertised at 3.69 percent, 3.79 percent and 3.94 percent, respectively. 
All new rates are effective Monday 1 August, the Australian Broker website advised.
Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au, said fixed home loan rates continued to tumble, with more than 600 rate cuts in June and July.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Newcastle Permanent drop rates to below 4 percent fixed

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Interest rates are set to hit a new historic low of 1.50 per cent when the Reserve Bank Board meets tomorrow, a RateCity.com.au analysis of over 30 key economic indicators suggests.
The Board will consider of a number of factors including the Australian dollar, growth, the reaction to Brexit, how heated the housing market is and what our neighbours are doing.
However, there are three reasons the bank is more likely than not to pull the trigger.
Peter Arnold, data insights director at <a href="https://www.ratecity.com.au/" target="_blank">RateCity.com.au</a>, said last week’s much-anticipated quarterly inflation figures reflected a sluggish trend – coming in at 1 per cent for the year to June and 0.4 per cent for the quarter.
“The RBA will be inclined to cut rates after Wednesday's sluggish inflation figures because when rates are cut, borrowers theoretically have a little more money to spend, which increases demand – and in turn the price – of goods and services,” he said.
“While the June unemployment figures showed a jump in the number of full-time employees, overall the labour market growth slightly undershot expectations.
“A rate cut tomorrow could help to stimulate growth and make room for more jobs in the market.
“The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave US rates on hold last week puts the pressure on Glenn Stevens to cut rates in August.
“Had the Fed hiked rates in July then in theory the US dollar would be higher and the Aussie dollar lower, effectively doing the heavy lifting for the RBA Board.
“Despite a last-minute drop before inflation figures were released, the relatively-high dollar will also add to the RBA’s woes,” he said.
On top of this, fixed home loan rates continue to tumble, with more than 600 rate cuts in June and July, Arnold said.
“On average, <a href="https://www.ratecity.com.au/home-loans/3-year-fixed" target="_blank">three-year fixed home loan rates</a> are 0.36 percentage points lower than variable rates and the gap between the two is the widest it has been in over a year. This suggests the lenders are anticipating another cut,” he said. 
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Finder.com.au found 600 home loan rate cuts in June and July 2016

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GUEST OBSERVER
The last of the inflation reports – the producer price indexes – confirms the absence of inflationary pressures. 
The Reserve Bank Board can feel comfortable in cutting rates next Tuesday. The headline consumer price index showed annual growth at 17-year lows, underlying inflation is at record lows, imported consumer prices have fallen the most in four years and annual business inflation is standing at just 1.0 per cent.
The average of preliminary, intermediate and final demand indexes of domestic producer prices averaged growth of just 0.4 per cent in the June quarter – matching the consumer price headline and underlying readings.
The weak lending data removes yet another barrier to the Reserve Bank cutting rates. We can’t read too much into the result as Brexit and the Federal Election may have influenced lending intentions. But a fall in both personal and business lending is not a good look – especially with interest rates already so low. It was the smallest monthly lift in credit in 33 months. It was the biggest annual fall in personal loans in almost four years. And it was the biggest monthly fall in business loans in 3 1⁄2 years.
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<a href="/images/2016/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-01%20at%208.52.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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What is the importance of the economic data?
Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.
The producer price figures are important in flagging price pressures at an early stage. If business costs are rising, the risk is that these will be passed on in terms of higher prices of final consumer goods. The Consumer Price Index is regarded as the key gauge of economy-wide inflation. 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Lending growth softens, tame business inflation: CommSec's Craig James

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<div>CoreLogic's home value index for July will show that Sydney's prices have blazed 5.6 percent higher over the last quarter and a rip-snorting 10.3 percent in 2016 to date. </div>
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<div class="separator">And interest rates to fall further? Interesting times. </div>
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<div>Credit growth slows</div>
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<div>The Reserve Bank (RBA) has an inflation target of 2 to 3 percent, and the latest figures this week showed that inflation is running well below that level, and the softest inflation result in 17 years.</div>
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<div>On Friday the RBA released its Financial Aggregates figures for the month of June which showed total credit growth slowing.</div>
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<div>Investor credit growth - denoted by the red line below - has more than halved to an annual pace of just 5 percent now, while personal credit growth remains weak, and business credit went backwards in the month. </div>
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 <div>All up annual credit growth slowed to 6.2 percent, with broad money growth a little slower at 6 percent.</div>
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 Business...as usual <div>Unfortunately business credit growth printed negative in June, taking the annual result back to 6.6 percent, a disappointing reading which might point towards a cut in interest rates. </div>
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 Banks and housing <div> </div>
<div>While growth in term deposits remains understandably weak, other deposits with banks continue to surge at a very strong double digit pace. </div>
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<img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA3.jpg" alt=""> <div>In the housing market investor credit growth slowed to 5 percent, now tracking at just half the arbitrary "speed limit" imposed by APRA. </div>
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<div>Naturally banks and lenders have been pushing owner-occupier loans, but even here growth slow by a tiny fraction from 7.73 to 7.72 percent, having notched a 70-month high in May. </div>
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 <div>Total housing credit growth of 6.7 percent is now well below the 7.5 percent rate hit in November last year, which will provide some comfort that macro-prudential measures are doing what they were designed to do.</div>
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<div>The wrap</div>
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<div>Overall, while nobody seems quite so sure any more what the split of credit relates to, total credit of $2.57 trillion is now growing at a slower pace of 6.2 percent, down from 6.7 percent in October last year. </div>
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 <div>Another factor in this week's interest rate decision was that US real GDP printed at an annual pace of just 1.2 percent in Q2 2016, meaning that the US Federal Reserve won't be hiking rates soon. The Aussie dollar jumped to 76 US cents, and will probably jump higher again if interest rates are not cut on Tuesday. Bookies and financial markets are leaning towards an interest rate cut in Tuesday to a record low of 1.50 percent. </div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Brace for record low rates: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVER
Anyone can be a successful investor but it is critical you set your goals and start with the end in mind. Begin by finding a proven system that other successful people have used in the past. 
The key is doing your research and making sure your money goes somewhere that over the medium-term you can expect steady capital growth. Property has long been a proven investment performer in Australia with well-chosen properties tending to double in value over a 7 to 10 year period, and this is a field OpenCorp has a proven track record in helping clients get involved with. 
Do one thing and do it well 
Once you’ve found your already successful mentors and identified a proven wealth creation strategy, stick with it. It takes patience and dedication. Keep the FOCUS acronym in mind: follow one course until success. 
Goal setting 
Keeping the end in sight, you need to set firm goals. A new financial year is upon us so now is a perfect time to do this. The goal doesn’t need to be unrealistic, it should suit what you can reach, however modest that may be to begin with. Keep moving forward. Expect setbacks, learn from them and persist. 
But you do need a very clear visual picture of where you want to end up in 10 to 15 years. My goal when I started in investment was to be able to work only as much as I needed, to still enjoy time with friends and family, but to be able to buy a house and create an environment where I could raise a family. That was my goal. 
Action vs aspiration 
Getting your start-up capital (that first deposit or whatever your goal is) may be the most difficult step in your investment journey, but it’s also the most important. Whatever you can do today is already on the way to growing for tomorrow. If you ever think back and wish, ‘I wish I had done that 10 years ago,’ let that motivate you. Aspiration must meet action to create results. 
Compound growth – people overcomplicate strategy. 
If I had to put wealth creation and making money into two words, it would be: compound growth. The reason, in the simplest terms, is that compound growth is growth on top of growth. What this means though is that wealth creation takes time. It takes patience and discipline to maximise the benefits of compound growth. 
Cash flow properties versus growth properties 
A positive cash flow positive property is an investment property that returns more than it costs to own. Typically, this becomes possible when interest rates are low and there is strong demand, meaning higher rents, or once an investor has made a significant dent in the principal of the loan.
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A growth property is one, on the other hand, that earns less in rental fees than you pay on its mortgage and maintenance, etc. A growth property pays its way through steady appreciation and, ultimately, resale. 
While a cash flow property might seem obviously superior, returning profit from day one, traditionally these properties may be in areas with less economic stability in the rental market. Or they might be seen as having less potential for capital gains. 
However, with Australian interest rates stable at historic lows this does not need to be an either/or consideration. A cash flow property can also be a growth property. While it might take between two and five years for an investment property to become cash flow positive, with interest rates below 4 percent and net yield sitting comfortably above this, solid growth properties across the market can also be cash flow properties. It just comes down to doing your research, getting the best advice and choosing the right property. 
Michael Beresford is director of investment services at OpenCorp and can be <a href="https://www.opencorp.com.au" target="_blank">contacted here</a>.
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How to set your investment strategy: Michael Beresford

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Non-major lender CUA has amended its lending policies to make it easier for people to access finance for apartment purchases, with the changes targeted at the owner-occupied unit market.
On the whole, these changes are designed to help more apartment buyers to qualify for a CUA home loan, CUA general manager of sales, Andy Rigg advised.
“Some of the changes are also designed to manage the risks from forecasts of an apartment oversupply in some Australian cities in the coming two years,” Rigg said.
The changes include CUA changing its definition for what it considers to be high density apartments.
Last week CUA issued a media release to correct mis-reporting of changes to its apartment loan criteria in Fairfax Media publications. 
The mutual said it had not introduced a policy of not lending for the purchase of apartments of less than 40 square metres.
It indicated that it had been its long-standing policy. 
It did recently amend its definition of a "high density apartment" to apply to buildings with six or more floors or more than 50 apartments.
It had previously classified a high density apartment as one in a complex with four floors or more than 30 apartments.
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How lenders are curtailing their high density apartment block lending

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ING Direct has cut its lowest variable rate home loan for owner-occupiers by 15 basis points. ING’s Orange Advantage loan has been reduced to 3.79 percent, effective today.
They are for owner-occupier loans with a minimum LVR of 80 percent. Fixed rate changes include a rate of 3.69 percent available for a three-year fixed term.
For more information, <a href="https://www.ingdirect.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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ING drops variable rate to record low 3.79 percent

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GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes of the July monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board confirmed the importance of next week’s June Quarter inflation report.
The key sentences in the concluding paragraph of the “Considerations for Monetary Policy” section state: “The Board noted that further information on inflationary pressures, the labour market and housing market activity would be available over the following month and that the staff would provide an update of their forecasts ahead of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. This information would allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate.”
So the minutes clearly leave the door open for another rate cut in August.
But this will depend upon the June quarter inflation report’s estimate of underlying inflation. The upper bound below which a rate cut can be expected is likely to be 0.5%.
Westpac’s forecast for underlying inflation in the quarter is 0.35 percent (up slightly on our preliminary estimate of 0.30 percent) which would support the need for another move given that core inflation would only have risen by 0.55 percent over the course of the first half of 2016, raising a genuine question mark as to whether even the Bank’s current 1.5 percent/yr mid-point forecast for December 2016 could be achieved. A lower result for 2016 would also place their 2.0 percent forecast for 2017 (the bottom of the 2-3 percent target range) in jeopardy.
What are the risks to our forecast and what is the level of June quarter inflation above which the Bank would keep rates on hold?
The tone of the minutes indicates that the Bank may be leaning toward another rate cut and may have a bit more flexibility on the inflation result than we had expected.
It is useful to note the Bank’s own expectation for the print.
In the Statement on Monetary Policy in May, it forecast underlying inflation would print 1.5 percent for the year to June. With nearly 1.0 percent already being reached in the first 3 quarters, we can conclude that the Bank is expecting a 0.5 percent print for underlying inflation in the June quarter. That result would therefore be interpreted by the Bank as being in line with its overall inflation outlook, which is for underlying inflation to print 1.5 percent for calendar 2016 and 2.0 percent for calendar 2017.
The result would provide support for its forecast changes in May and indicate that it had not overreacted to the very low print of the March quarter.
Recall that the May forecasts assumed “market pricing” on interest rates, which incorporated a fully priced second rate cut by early 2017.
I think it is therefore reasonable to conclude that a 0.5 percent print for underlying inflation, although representing a sharp jump from March’s 0.2 percent print would be consistent with a follow up rate cut at the August meeting.
Another way to look at it is that 0.5 percent would still represent an annualised “run rate” of 2.0 percent which is still at the bottom of the 2-3 percent target band.
In the May Statement on Monetary Policy, the Bank noted “Although some temporary factors contributed to the low result, the data indicate that there has been broad based weakness in domestic cost pressures, reflecting low wage growth, heightened retail competition, softer conditions in rental and housing construction markets and declines in the cost of industry inputs such as fuel and utilities.”
Theoretically the pass through from the fall in the AUD should be an offset to these pressures, but there has been only limited evidence of that effect and the fall in the AUD is starting to fade with the currency being broadly stable over the last 12 months – clearly margin squeeze has had a considerable influence on limiting the pass through from AUD depreciation.
Our forecasts for the June quarter expect these trends to be sustained. Lower than expected results across the spectrum of components are consistent, in particular, with low wage pressures and margin squeeze. That stood out in the March quarter result.
Clothing and footwear; processed food; household contents and services and holidays are likely to continue to capture the low wages and retail margin squeeze effects in the June quarter. We have made allowance for those factors in our forecasts.
However, by far the most important driver of the outcome for underlying inflation is likely to be housing.
Because rent and housing construction costs are not volatile and/or impacted by significant one off factors, they are almost always included in the 70 percent of items which make up the trimmed mean – the key measure of underlying inflation. With a total of 15.4 percent in the overall CPI (construction costs, 8.7 percent; and rents, 6.7 percent) these two components represent an effective 22 percent of the trimmed mean – by far the highest weighting of any component.
In recent quarters we have seen a collapse in housing pressures, particularly outside of Sydney and Melbourne.
In the December quarter last year, growth in construction costs slowed from 1.1 percent the year before to 0.1 percent; in the March quarter, we saw a continuation of that weakness, printing 0.2 percent from 0.9 percent the year before.
The slowdown in rents has been more gradual. The December quarter slowed to 0.2 percent from 0.5 percent a year ago and slowed further still in the March quarter to 0.1 percent from 0.4 percent a year earlier.
Housing pressures in the June quarter will be critical for underlying inflation. In our preliminary estimates, we assumed 0.1 percent for rents and 0.2 percent for housing construction. In our final estimate, we have cautiously lifted these estimates to 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, pushing the underlying measure up to 0.35 percent – still comfortably in the “rate cut” zone.
If the underlying result printed above 0.5 percent due to housing, then one combination would be both rents and construction costs printing at 0.6 percent or above. These results would defy a clear slowing trend in rents, and indicate a possible but unlikely sharp recovery in construction costs and builders’ margins. While entirely possible (e.g. construction costs/ margins lifted from 0.9 percent to 1.5 percent between March and June last year), particularly following the lift in house prices (rather than specifically construction costs) in April/May in Sydney and Melbourne, we think the outcome would be unlikely.
Arguably, an unanticipated “spike” in housing costs and rents that offsets the wages/margins forces that have structurally driven down inflation pressures would be an unwelcome outcome for the Bank.
In the event of an upside surprise in the Inflation Report that was largely attributed to a spike in housing costs, the Bank is likely to be more flexible with its ultimate rate decision, but a print above 0.5% would still make it very difficult to justify a cut.
In that event, markets would readily switch their focus to a November cut, expecting some correction to the housing “spike”.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Housing pressures in the June quarter will be critical for underlying inflation:  Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
 It’s now four weeks since the Brexit panic on June 24 and since then US and European shares are up 6 percent, British shares are up 9 percent, Australian shares are up 7 percent and Japanese shares are up 11 percent.
Fears around Brexit’s global impact look to have been wildly exaggerated. The only really lasting impact (so far) has been on the British pound which is down another 3 percent leaving it down 11 percent from June 23rd, which understandably reflects the negative impact of Brexit on the UK economy.
Over the past week the rally in shares generally continued with US and European shares up slightly, solid gains in Japanese and Australian shares but a fall in Chinese shares. A combination of good economic data, good US profit results, the absence of a major negative impact outside the UK from Brexit and talk of more policy stimulus in parts of the world are continuing to help. 
Bond yields were generally flat to down, commodity prices were mixed and the $A fell partly in sympathy with NZ moves towards another monetary easing. 
The talk around Japan’s planned fiscal stimulus is continuing to get ramped up with the size of the package supposedly going from ¥10trillion, to ¥20trillion to maybe even ¥30trillion which is around 6 percent of GDP albeit it depends how many years it is spread over. If as we expect it’s focussed on encouraging consumers to spend more then it should have a reasonable chance of success. 
In maybe a sign of things to come in Australia – NZ looks to be heading for another rate cut. After a surprisingly low June quarter inflation outcome, the announcement of plans to tighten restrictions on residential mortgage lending and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stating that “a decline in the [$NZ] is needed”, the RBNZ has clearly set the scene for a rate cut next month. In fact, it doesn’t mince words stating that “it seems likely that further policy easing will be required”.
The IMF downgraded it global growth forecasts to 3.1 percent for 2016 (from 3.2 percent) and to 3.4 percent for 2017 (from 3.5 percent) on Brexit risks - but hardly a surprise. It must often strike the ordinary investor as weird that much fanfare is given to the IMF downgrading its growth forecasts but share markets seem to largely ignore it. There are several reasons for this but in essence it’s because the market (and most economists) have already moved ahead of the IMF and the IMF global growth forecasts have been starting out too optimistic for years now. 
Since early this decade they have been starting out forecasting 4 percent global growth for the year ahead only to end around 3 percent. This is not great – but it’s not bad either! Just more of the same. 
 One positive from the last week – we learned that Trumps can say thoughtful things. Not to worry that they were Michelle Obama’s. In the week ahead it’s on to the Democrat convention which may be a lot calmer. 
Major global economic events and implications
US data on a roll. Housing data was strong (with solid readings for home builder conditions, starts, sales and home prices), jobless claims remain very low, leading indicators rose more than expected and while the headline Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell readings for shipments, new orders and employment rose solidly. The US housing recovery likely has a long way to go as housing starts at 1.2 million continue to run below underlying demand of 1.5 million with the overbuilding of last decade having been more than worked off. Buying a house in Detroit still looks like a good proposition! 
 Evidence is continuing to build that US profits bottomed in the March quarter. 115 S&amp;P 500 companies have now reported June quarter earnings to date and so far so good with 81 percent beating on earnings and 58 percent beating on sales. While the market expects profits to fall 3 percent from a year ago, this will translate into a rise in profits of 8 percent from the March quarter.
As expected the ECB remained in wait and see mode at its July meeting. However, President Draghi referred to greater uncertainties in reference to Brexit and reiterated the ECB’s “readiness, willingness and ability to act” if necessary. We remain of the view that its QE program will be extended beyond its current expiry of March 2017. 
Eurozone consumer confidence fell only fractionally in July suggesting little impact on confidence (or perhaps it was a case of good riddance). Interestingly the ECB’s bank lending survey showed an increase in demand for loans and a further easing in lending standards which is also a good sign as the survey was conducted before and after the Brexit vote.
Japan’s manufacturing conditions PMI showed a welcome improvement in July albeit it’s still weak.
The Chinese property market recovery remains a positive for Chinese growth – with residential property prices up another 0.8 percent in June or 7.8% year on year. Tier 1 cities are seeing most the gains but Tiers 3 and 4 have picked up. Meanwhile, the MNI Chinese business sentiment index rose in July and significant flooding in parts of China could have a short term positive impact on GDP from rebuilding and may temporarily boost food prices.
Australian economic events and implications
In Australia, the minutes from the RBA’s last Board meeting confirmed that the door is wide open for another rate cut at its August 2 meeting. 
While not as direct as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the RBA indicated that it was waiting on further information on inflation, the labour market and the housing market and the next update of the RBA’s economic forecasts. Since it has described the labour market and the housing market as “mixed” and recent data on both suggest no reason to change that assessment, the implication from the RBA is that should we see another low inflation reading when the June quarter CPI numbers are released on Wednesday then it’s likely that the RBA will cut the cash rate from 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent on August 2. A CPI outcome of 0.4% quarter on quarter  for headline and underlying – which is what we expect - would likely be enough to see the RBA cut again.
What to watch over the next week?
The focus in the week ahead will be on monetary policy -  with June quarter inflation data in Australia providing a guide to whether the RBA will cut rates again next month and both the Fed and Bank of Japan meeting – and European banks with another round of stress tests.
In the US, we expect the Fed (Wednesday) to leave rates on hold as it seeks to gain more confidence that US growth is back on track and that the impact from Brexit will be minimal but to indicate that it still expects to raise rates in a gradual and cautious fashion. 
The US money market is only implying an 8 percent chance of a hike in the week ahead but the Fed may try and push up the market’s probability of a hike going forward which is currently at just 25 percent for September and 45% for December. With US growth averaging around 2 percent, the labour market continuing to tighten with wages growth edging higher and inflation heading up towards target we see more like a 65% chance of a hike in December. The main brake on the Fed will be if the $US rises too strongly as it amounts to a de facto monetary tightening. On the data front in the US expect to see continuing gains in US home prices, a rise in new home sales but a fall in consumer confidence (all Tuesday), softish durable goods orders and a rise in pending home sales (Wednesday), a slight edging up wages growth according to the June quarter employment cost index and a bounce back in annualised GDP growth to 2.6 percent in the June quarter (both Friday) after just 1.1 percent growth in the March quarter. Earnings will also remain a focus with over 100 S&amp;P 500 companies to report June quarter earnings.
In the Eurozone, the focus will be on the latest ECB bank stress tests (Friday) which will indicate whether banks are sufficiently capitalised or not. Italian banks of course will be the main focus, and the stress tests should help clear the way for some of them to be recapitalised. On the data front expect June quarter GDP (Friday) to show moderate economic growth of around 1.5 percent year on year and confidence readings (Thursday) will provide a guide to the impact of Brexit on business confidence. Data will also be released for bank lending (Wednesday) and core inflation (Friday) is likely to have remained around 0.9 percent year on year on July.
The Bank of Japan (Friday) is likely to announce further monetary easing as the Japanese government prepares to unveil its much talked about fiscal stimulus package. While it’s doubtful this will involve “helicopter money” (ie direct BoJ financing of government spending), it is getting close. Rather its likely to involve further monetary easing through some combination of increased ETF purchases and corporate debt purchases and a another cut in the negative deposit rate. Japanese data due Friday is expected to show continued labour market strength and a bounce in industrial production but soft household spending and inflation.
In Australia, expect another low inflation reading on Wednesday for the June quarter to clear the way for an August RBA rate cut. While headline inflation is expected to rise 0.4 percent quarter on quarter thanks to higher petrol prices and a seasonal rise in health costs this is likely to see annual inflation drop to 1.1% year on year and low wages growth and competitive pressures are likely to have seen underlying inflation rise just 0.4%qoq or 1.4%yoy which is down from 1.6%yoy in the March quarter. Export, import and producer price inflation data will also be released. June credit data (Friday) is likely to show that credit growth remains moderate with the stock of lending to property investors continuing to show slower growth.
Outlook for markets
Brexit related risks, Italian bank risks, renewed $US strength as the Fed heads back towards tightening and seasonal September quarter weakness could still see more volatility in shares in the short term. However, beyond near term uncertainties, we anticipate shares trending higher over the next 12 months helped by okay valuations, very easy global monetary conditions and continuing moderate global economic growth. 
Ultra-low bond yields (with one third of the global bond index in negative yield territory) point to a soft medium term return potential from them, but it’s hard to get too bearish in a world of fragile growth, spare capacity, low inflation and ongoing shocks. That said, the recent bond rally has taken yields to pathetic levels leaving them at risk of a snapback. Renewed expectations of a Fed hike may be the driver.
Commercial property and infrastructure are likely to continue benefitting from the ongoing search for yield by investors. 
Dwelling price gains are expected to slow to around 3% over the year ahead, as the heat comes out of Sydney and Melbourne thanks to tougher lending standards and as apartment prices get hit by oversupply in some areas. Prices are likely to continue to fall in Perth and Darwin. 
Cash and bank deposits offer poor returns. 
The Australian dollar is still higher than it should be and the longer term downtrend looks likely to continue as the interest rate differential in favour of Australia narrows as the RBA continues cutting and the Fed eventually resumes hiking, the risk of a sovereign ratings downgrade continues to increase, commodity prices remain in a secular downswing and the $A sees its usual undershoot of fair value. The $A is still likely to fall to around $US0.60 in the years ahead. 
 <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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