Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

<html><body>
Market analysts are polarised about the the future direction of monetary policy, according to the finder.com.au comparison website survey. 
More than half of the experts (56 percent, or 23/41) in the <a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=1e7bd1b91e&amp;e=58cd8ffd03">finder.com.au </a>Reserve Bank Survey, the largest of its kind in Australia, believe the Reserve Bank will slash the official cost of borrowing at today’s board meeting. In a strongly divided result, 44 percent (18/41) are predicting the cash rate will hold at 1.75 percent. 
However, of those who believe the cash rate will remain unchanged, the majority of these experts (16/18, 89 percent) are predicting a cash rate cut before the year is out. November is tipped as the month we can expect this.  
The majority of experts (58 percent) predict the cash rate will bottom-out at 1.50 percent this cycle. However, only two experts who weighed in on the cash rate cycle predict that it won’t fall lower than its current rate of 1.75 percent. 
Some experts are starting to consider the possibility of rates falling lower than 1.5 percent, with 18 percent predicting the cash rate to bottom-out at 1.25 percent. A further seven economists are predicting the rate to fall even lower this cycle, with Jordan Eliseo of ABC Bullion predicting the cash rate to hit 0.50 percent before it starts to rise, and Angus Raine of Raine &amp; Horne predicting an eventual low of 0.25 percent.
Here’s what our RBA expert panel had to say:
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Cut): "It's a close call but we think the RBA will cut next week - signifying their intention to arrest the decline in inflationary pressure, which is widespread across the economy today."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Cut): "June quarter inflation data was not low enough to make an RBA rate cut certain, particularly given that recent economic data has been reasonably good. However, on balance we expect that the RBA will move again to help ensure that inflation expectations do not become entrenched below 2 percent as has been the case in several other countries, so that there is reasonable confidence that inflation will move back into the target zone in a reasonable time frame and to head off a rebound in the $A that will likely follow if it doesn’t cut again."
Dr John Hewson, ANU (Hold): "They will wait and see low inflation number confirmed."
Peter Munckton, Bank of Queensland (Hold): "The RBA are happy with current level of rates." 
Steven Pasas, Bank Of Sydney (Hold): "CPI came in higher than expected."
David Bassanese, BetaShares (Cut): "Annual underlying inflation has been confirmed as running 0.5 percent lower than the RBA expected 6 months ago."
Kishti Sen on behalf Richard Robinson, BIS Shrapnel (Hold): "No need to cut as economic growth is good, unemployment rate is stable and CPI likely to rise over next year as petrol prices rise. The RBA also needs to keep some policy bullets up its sleeve for when economy slows in the wake of coming residential downturn." 
Michael Blythe, CBA (Cut): "Low inflation."
Dr Andrew Wilson, Domain Group (Hold): "Inflation low but steady and other economic indicators slightly more positive recently  - will likely keep powder dry but still a solid case for a cut."
Scott Morgan, Greater Bank (Hold): "The evidence for a rate cut is not compelling enough at this stage. A rate change is unlikely to fix the factors influencing low inflation. In some respects, low inflation is a global issue. To pull the trigger on a rate cut now is wasted ammunition." 
Dr Mark Brimble, Griffith University (Cut): "With inflation remained well below the RBA's target range, a building range of head winds (including the expected large scale job losses from heavy manufacturing next year and a stubborn currency) together with APRA's intervention in the credit markets beginning to impact, the RBA has a close call to make, but is likely to want to get ahead of the market and cut rates to offer further support to the economy."
Atul Narang, HashChing (Cut): "The annual inflation is at just 1 percent, the weakest annual rise since 1999. It is well below RBA's target range of 2-3 percent so there is a strong chance of a rate cut. RBA's expectation that underlying inflation will be below 2-3 percent range until mid 2018 is based on the assumption that interest rates would fall to 1.5 percent." 
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank (Hold): "The inflation rate is sufficiently high to permit the RBA to stay on hold for now." 
Shane Garrett, HIA (Cut): "Inflation is at a low level, giving the RBA more room for flexibility on rates." 
Paul Bloxham, HSBC (Cut): "Inflation is too low." 
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Cut): "Inflation remains consistent with further easing, the question of timing is still open and the RBA may choose to delay until later in the year given the growth outlook has not deteriorated materially as yet." 
Robert Montgomery, Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (Cut): "The RBA will be hesitant to push the cash rate lower than it already is, however the June quarter inflation figures are well below the RBA’s target band of 2-3 percent, making an August rate cut likely." 
Michael Witts, ING Direct (Cut): "The inflation print and the slightly weaker domestic economy together with the higher AUD provides scope for the RBA to adjust the cash rate."
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Cut): "It’s a line-ball decision that really could go either way. In the end, with inflation at its weakest in nearly 20 years, we believe the RBA will move to drop the cash rate." 
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "It's consistent with its previous hesitancy to cut even in the presence of its own forecasts of inadequate growth." 
Lynne Jordan, Liberty (Cut): "The Reserve Bank’s cash rate decision hinges on inflation, housing and labour market data – and, unfortunately, these indicators are just not leaning in the right direction to constitute a hold. The labour market has lost momentum, low wage growth is impacting consumer spending and, just this week, we’ve seen another disappointing report on inflation. RBA action and a rate cut to a new record low, is definitely on the cards in the not too distant future."
Grant Harrod, LJ Hooker (Cut): "The growth of house prices is moderating.  Added to this, inflation is at very low levels and concerns around the global economy should see the RBA cut the cash rate at its August meeting."
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Cut): "Low inflation and unemployment is too high."
John Caelli, ME (Cut): "Employment data remains soft and inflation remains well below the 2-3% desired band. The Australian dollar is also stronger than what the RBA would like."
Mark Crosby, Melbourne Business School (Hold): "While local inflation remains low the strongest driver of rate changes should remain changes to major central bank settings in coming months."
Emily Dabbs, Moody's Analytics (Cut): "Inflation data for the June quarter indicates that price pressures remain weak. The RBA preferred measure of inflation remains below its 2 percent to 3 percent target range." 
Jessica Darnbrough, Mortgage Choice (Cut): "The latest inflation data was in line with expectations, but low by historical standards. I believe this will provide the Reserve Bank with the incentive they need to cut the cash rate for the second time this year."
Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): "Economic data has if anything been a little stronger than expected in recent times and overall activity remains OK. While inflation remains low, the labour market appears to be holding up well as does the housing market. These were the three key variables called out by the RBA as most important for their next rate decision in the minutes of the July Board meeting. On balance, these variables suggest the RBA will leave rates on hold, but retain an easing bias as it takes further time to see how the economy develops. That said, it will be a close call." 
Saul Eslake, Economist (Hold): "Because Q2 inflation wasn't materially lower than the RBA had anticipated when it revised its forecasts after the Q1 result (the revision which prompted the most recent rate cut in May), and because other data released since the July Board meeting haven't warranted any downward revisions to the RBA's assessment of the outlook for economic growth. There are downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation, but the RBA would be better advised holding what "firepower" it still has for a time when the case for using it is stronger."
Alan Oster, Nab (Hold): "It’s line ball decision but the economy in non mining is still doing well as is the labour market.  Inflation remains low but no urgency to cut unlike May."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "The RBA likes to set its own agenda, not follow the herd mentality."
Matthew Peter, QIC (Cut): "The Q2 inflation outturn is consistent with RBA forecasts, which sees inflation remaining below the target band for an extended period. Risks around the flow-on effect of BREXIT, potential slowdown in China, threat to international trade agreements and geopolitical risks pose sufficient reasons for the RBA to cut."
Noel Whittaker , QUT (Hold): "No urgent need to drop."
Angus Raine, Raine &amp; Horne (Hold): "The recent Federal election wait and see approach."
Ken, Sayer (Hold): "We expect a drop in Sep 2016." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing Pty Ltd (Hold): "Stable employment market, confirmation of government, and stabilised growth in the overall Australian market." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold): "Inflation is very low, but it is in line with expectations. If they wanted to follow up the May rate cut with another, they would have done so in June or provided a stronger indication that they were close to cutting. The low inflation outlook keeps alive the chances of a rate cut this year, but given recent RBA commentary, they do not seem to be in a position to lower rates just yet." 
Steven Milch, Suncorp (Cut): "Persistently below target inflation."
Scott Haslem, UBS (Cut): "The issue for the RBA is whether Q2's 'in line' inflation is low enough to out-work the 'implied' 25bp cut in their May SoMP forecasts, or whether the post-UK-leave resilience of both financial markets &amp; global confidence, and the strong dataflow in the US &amp; domestically, leaves the RBA drifting away from their clearer easing bias at the July meeting, back to their 'neutral' post May cut stance. On balance, we believe Q2's CPI is enough to get the RBA across the line for a (final) cut in August, but the lack of downward surprise, &amp; better recent data, makes this a close call."
Nicki Hutley, Urbis (Cut): "Inflation is significantly below the Bank's target."
</body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA August rate cut to be a close call: finder.com.au

<html><body>
The regional mutual lender Newcastle Permanent has dropped home loan interest rates by up to 45 basis points ahead of the today's Reserve Bank monetary policy meeting.
Newcastle Permanent has reduced its two-year year fixed home loan rate by 5 basis points, its three-year fixed home loan rate by 10 basis points and its four-year fixed home loan rate by 45 basis points. 
All rates are now under 4 percent with the new two, three and four-year fixed rates advertised at 3.69 percent, 3.79 percent and 3.94 percent, respectively. 
All new rates are effective Monday 1 August, the Australian Broker website advised.
Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au, said fixed home loan rates continued to tumble, with more than 600 rate cuts in June and July.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Newcastle Permanent drop rates to below 4 percent fixed

<html><body>
Interest rates are set to hit a new historic low of 1.50 per cent when the Reserve Bank Board meets tomorrow, a RateCity.com.au analysis of over 30 key economic indicators suggests.
The Board will consider of a number of factors including the Australian dollar, growth, the reaction to Brexit, how heated the housing market is and what our neighbours are doing.
However, there are three reasons the bank is more likely than not to pull the trigger.
Peter Arnold, data insights director at <a href="https://www.ratecity.com.au/" target="_blank">RateCity.com.au</a>, said last week’s much-anticipated quarterly inflation figures reflected a sluggish trend – coming in at 1 per cent for the year to June and 0.4 per cent for the quarter.
“The RBA will be inclined to cut rates after Wednesday's sluggish inflation figures because when rates are cut, borrowers theoretically have a little more money to spend, which increases demand – and in turn the price – of goods and services,” he said.
“While the June unemployment figures showed a jump in the number of full-time employees, overall the labour market growth slightly undershot expectations.
“A rate cut tomorrow could help to stimulate growth and make room for more jobs in the market.
“The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave US rates on hold last week puts the pressure on Glenn Stevens to cut rates in August.
“Had the Fed hiked rates in July then in theory the US dollar would be higher and the Aussie dollar lower, effectively doing the heavy lifting for the RBA Board.
“Despite a last-minute drop before inflation figures were released, the relatively-high dollar will also add to the RBA’s woes,” he said.
On top of this, fixed home loan rates continue to tumble, with more than 600 rate cuts in June and July, Arnold said.
“On average, <a href="https://www.ratecity.com.au/home-loans/3-year-fixed" target="_blank">three-year fixed home loan rates</a> are 0.36 percentage points lower than variable rates and the gap between the two is the widest it has been in over a year. This suggests the lenders are anticipating another cut,” he said. 
</body></html>

Finder.com.au found 600 home loan rate cuts in June and July 2016

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
GUEST OBSERVER
The last of the inflation reports – the producer price indexes – confirms the absence of inflationary pressures. 
The Reserve Bank Board can feel comfortable in cutting rates next Tuesday. The headline consumer price index showed annual growth at 17-year lows, underlying inflation is at record lows, imported consumer prices have fallen the most in four years and annual business inflation is standing at just 1.0 per cent.
The average of preliminary, intermediate and final demand indexes of domestic producer prices averaged growth of just 0.4 per cent in the June quarter – matching the consumer price headline and underlying readings.
The weak lending data removes yet another barrier to the Reserve Bank cutting rates. We can’t read too much into the result as Brexit and the Federal Election may have influenced lending intentions. But a fall in both personal and business lending is not a good look – especially with interest rates already so low. It was the smallest monthly lift in credit in 33 months. It was the biggest annual fall in personal loans in almost four years. And it was the biggest monthly fall in business loans in 3 1⁄2 years.
</div>
<div class="column">
<a href="/images/2016/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-01%20at%208.52.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-01%20at%208.52.42%20AM.png" alt="">
What is the importance of the economic data?
Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.
The producer price figures are important in flagging price pressures at an early stage. If business costs are rising, the risk is that these will be passed on in terms of higher prices of final consumer goods. The Consumer Price Index is regarded as the key gauge of economy-wide inflation. 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

Lending growth softens, tame business inflation: CommSec's Craig James

<html><body>
<div class="post-outer">
<div class="post hentry uncustomized-post-template">
<div id="post-body-1360595647608607452" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>CoreLogic's home value index for July will show that Sydney's prices have blazed 5.6 percent higher over the last quarter and a rip-snorting 10.3 percent in 2016 to date. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RP.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RP.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And interest rates to fall further? Interesting times. </div>
<div> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="post-outer">
<div class="post hentry uncustomized-post-template">
<div id="post-body-8306564758661403353" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Credit growth slows</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank (RBA) has an inflation target of 2 to 3 percent, and the latest figures this week showed that inflation is running well below that level, and the softest inflation result in 17 years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On Friday the RBA released its Financial Aggregates figures for the month of June which showed total credit growth slowing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor credit growth - denoted by the red line below - has more than halved to an annual pace of just 5 percent now, while personal credit growth remains weak, and business credit went backwards in the month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
 <div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>All up annual credit growth slowed to 6.2 percent, with broad money growth a little slower at 6 percent.</div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
 Business...as usual <div>Unfortunately business credit growth printed negative in June, taking the annual result back to 6.6 percent, a disappointing reading which might point towards a cut in interest rates. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
 Banks and housing <div> </div>
<div>While growth in term deposits remains understandably weak, other deposits with banks continue to surge at a very strong double digit pace. </div>
 <a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA3.jpg" alt=""> <div>In the housing market investor credit growth slowed to 5 percent, now tracking at just half the arbitrary "speed limit" imposed by APRA. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Naturally banks and lenders have been pushing owner-occupier loans, but even here growth slow by a tiny fraction from 7.73 to 7.72 percent, having notched a 70-month high in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
 <div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA5.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>Total housing credit growth of 6.7 percent is now well below the 7.5 percent rate hit in November last year, which will provide some comfort that macro-prudential measures are doing what they were designed to do.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, while nobody seems quite so sure any more what the split of credit relates to, total credit of $2.57 trillion is now growing at a slower pace of 6.2 percent, down from 6.7 percent in October last year. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA6.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>Another factor in this week's interest rate decision was that US real GDP printed at an annual pace of just 1.2 percent in Q2 2016, meaning that the US Federal Reserve won't be hiking rates soon. The Aussie dollar jumped to 76 US cents, and will probably jump higher again if interest rates are not cut on Tuesday. Bookies and financial markets are leaning towards an interest rate cut in Tuesday to a record low of 1.50 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Brace for record low rates: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
GUEST OBSERVER
Anyone can be a successful investor but it is critical you set your goals and start with the end in mind. Begin by finding a proven system that other successful people have used in the past. 
The key is doing your research and making sure your money goes somewhere that over the medium-term you can expect steady capital growth. Property has long been a proven investment performer in Australia with well-chosen properties tending to double in value over a 7 to 10 year period, and this is a field OpenCorp has a proven track record in helping clients get involved with. 
Do one thing and do it well 
Once you’ve found your already successful mentors and identified a proven wealth creation strategy, stick with it. It takes patience and dedication. Keep the FOCUS acronym in mind: follow one course until success. 
Goal setting 
Keeping the end in sight, you need to set firm goals. A new financial year is upon us so now is a perfect time to do this. The goal doesn’t need to be unrealistic, it should suit what you can reach, however modest that may be to begin with. Keep moving forward. Expect setbacks, learn from them and persist. 
But you do need a very clear visual picture of where you want to end up in 10 to 15 years. My goal when I started in investment was to be able to work only as much as I needed, to still enjoy time with friends and family, but to be able to buy a house and create an environment where I could raise a family. That was my goal. 
Action vs aspiration 
Getting your start-up capital (that first deposit or whatever your goal is) may be the most difficult step in your investment journey, but it’s also the most important. Whatever you can do today is already on the way to growing for tomorrow. If you ever think back and wish, ‘I wish I had done that 10 years ago,’ let that motivate you. Aspiration must meet action to create results. 
Compound growth – people overcomplicate strategy. 
If I had to put wealth creation and making money into two words, it would be: compound growth. The reason, in the simplest terms, is that compound growth is growth on top of growth. What this means though is that wealth creation takes time. It takes patience and discipline to maximise the benefits of compound growth. 
Cash flow properties versus growth properties 
A positive cash flow positive property is an investment property that returns more than it costs to own. Typically, this becomes possible when interest rates are low and there is strong demand, meaning higher rents, or once an investor has made a significant dent in the principal of the loan.
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
A growth property is one, on the other hand, that earns less in rental fees than you pay on its mortgage and maintenance, etc. A growth property pays its way through steady appreciation and, ultimately, resale. 
While a cash flow property might seem obviously superior, returning profit from day one, traditionally these properties may be in areas with less economic stability in the rental market. Or they might be seen as having less potential for capital gains. 
However, with Australian interest rates stable at historic lows this does not need to be an either/or consideration. A cash flow property can also be a growth property. While it might take between two and five years for an investment property to become cash flow positive, with interest rates below 4 percent and net yield sitting comfortably above this, solid growth properties across the market can also be cash flow properties. It just comes down to doing your research, getting the best advice and choosing the right property. 
Michael Beresford is director of investment services at OpenCorp and can be <a href="https://www.opencorp.com.au" target="_blank">contacted here</a>.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

How to set your investment strategy: Michael Beresford

<html><body>
Non-major lender CUA has amended its lending policies to make it easier for people to access finance for apartment purchases, with the changes targeted at the owner-occupied unit market.
On the whole, these changes are designed to help more apartment buyers to qualify for a CUA home loan, CUA general manager of sales, Andy Rigg advised.
“Some of the changes are also designed to manage the risks from forecasts of an apartment oversupply in some Australian cities in the coming two years,” Rigg said.
The changes include CUA changing its definition for what it considers to be high density apartments.
Last week CUA issued a media release to correct mis-reporting of changes to its apartment loan criteria in Fairfax Media publications. 
The mutual said it had not introduced a policy of not lending for the purchase of apartments of less than 40 square metres.
It indicated that it had been its long-standing policy. 
It did recently amend its definition of a "high density apartment" to apply to buildings with six or more floors or more than 50 apartments.
It had previously classified a high density apartment as one in a complex with four floors or more than 30 apartments.
</body></html>

How lenders are curtailing their high density apartment block lending

<html><body>
ING Direct has cut its lowest variable rate home loan for owner-occupiers by 15 basis points. ING’s Orange Advantage loan has been reduced to 3.79 percent, effective today.
They are for owner-occupier loans with a minimum LVR of 80 percent. Fixed rate changes include a rate of 3.69 percent available for a three-year fixed term.
For more information, <a href="https://www.ingdirect.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>.
</body></html>

ING drops variable rate to record low 3.79 percent

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes of the July monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board confirmed the importance of next week’s June Quarter inflation report.
The key sentences in the concluding paragraph of the “Considerations for Monetary Policy” section state: “The Board noted that further information on inflationary pressures, the labour market and housing market activity would be available over the following month and that the staff would provide an update of their forecasts ahead of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. This information would allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate.”
So the minutes clearly leave the door open for another rate cut in August.
But this will depend upon the June quarter inflation report’s estimate of underlying inflation. The upper bound below which a rate cut can be expected is likely to be 0.5%.
Westpac’s forecast for underlying inflation in the quarter is 0.35 percent (up slightly on our preliminary estimate of 0.30 percent) which would support the need for another move given that core inflation would only have risen by 0.55 percent over the course of the first half of 2016, raising a genuine question mark as to whether even the Bank’s current 1.5 percent/yr mid-point forecast for December 2016 could be achieved. A lower result for 2016 would also place their 2.0 percent forecast for 2017 (the bottom of the 2-3 percent target range) in jeopardy.
What are the risks to our forecast and what is the level of June quarter inflation above which the Bank would keep rates on hold?
The tone of the minutes indicates that the Bank may be leaning toward another rate cut and may have a bit more flexibility on the inflation result than we had expected.
It is useful to note the Bank’s own expectation for the print.
In the Statement on Monetary Policy in May, it forecast underlying inflation would print 1.5 percent for the year to June. With nearly 1.0 percent already being reached in the first 3 quarters, we can conclude that the Bank is expecting a 0.5 percent print for underlying inflation in the June quarter. That result would therefore be interpreted by the Bank as being in line with its overall inflation outlook, which is for underlying inflation to print 1.5 percent for calendar 2016 and 2.0 percent for calendar 2017.
The result would provide support for its forecast changes in May and indicate that it had not overreacted to the very low print of the March quarter.
Recall that the May forecasts assumed “market pricing” on interest rates, which incorporated a fully priced second rate cut by early 2017.
I think it is therefore reasonable to conclude that a 0.5 percent print for underlying inflation, although representing a sharp jump from March’s 0.2 percent print would be consistent with a follow up rate cut at the August meeting.
Another way to look at it is that 0.5 percent would still represent an annualised “run rate” of 2.0 percent which is still at the bottom of the 2-3 percent target band.
In the May Statement on Monetary Policy, the Bank noted “Although some temporary factors contributed to the low result, the data indicate that there has been broad based weakness in domestic cost pressures, reflecting low wage growth, heightened retail competition, softer conditions in rental and housing construction markets and declines in the cost of industry inputs such as fuel and utilities.”
Theoretically the pass through from the fall in the AUD should be an offset to these pressures, but there has been only limited evidence of that effect and the fall in the AUD is starting to fade with the currency being broadly stable over the last 12 months – clearly margin squeeze has had a considerable influence on limiting the pass through from AUD depreciation.
Our forecasts for the June quarter expect these trends to be sustained. Lower than expected results across the spectrum of components are consistent, in particular, with low wage pressures and margin squeeze. That stood out in the March quarter result.
Clothing and footwear; processed food; household contents and services and holidays are likely to continue to capture the low wages and retail margin squeeze effects in the June quarter. We have made allowance for those factors in our forecasts.
However, by far the most important driver of the outcome for underlying inflation is likely to be housing.
Because rent and housing construction costs are not volatile and/or impacted by significant one off factors, they are almost always included in the 70 percent of items which make up the trimmed mean – the key measure of underlying inflation. With a total of 15.4 percent in the overall CPI (construction costs, 8.7 percent; and rents, 6.7 percent) these two components represent an effective 22 percent of the trimmed mean – by far the highest weighting of any component.
In recent quarters we have seen a collapse in housing pressures, particularly outside of Sydney and Melbourne.
In the December quarter last year, growth in construction costs slowed from 1.1 percent the year before to 0.1 percent; in the March quarter, we saw a continuation of that weakness, printing 0.2 percent from 0.9 percent the year before.
The slowdown in rents has been more gradual. The December quarter slowed to 0.2 percent from 0.5 percent a year ago and slowed further still in the March quarter to 0.1 percent from 0.4 percent a year earlier.
Housing pressures in the June quarter will be critical for underlying inflation. In our preliminary estimates, we assumed 0.1 percent for rents and 0.2 percent for housing construction. In our final estimate, we have cautiously lifted these estimates to 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, pushing the underlying measure up to 0.35 percent – still comfortably in the “rate cut” zone.
If the underlying result printed above 0.5 percent due to housing, then one combination would be both rents and construction costs printing at 0.6 percent or above. These results would defy a clear slowing trend in rents, and indicate a possible but unlikely sharp recovery in construction costs and builders’ margins. While entirely possible (e.g. construction costs/ margins lifted from 0.9 percent to 1.5 percent between March and June last year), particularly following the lift in house prices (rather than specifically construction costs) in April/May in Sydney and Melbourne, we think the outcome would be unlikely.
Arguably, an unanticipated “spike” in housing costs and rents that offsets the wages/margins forces that have structurally driven down inflation pressures would be an unwelcome outcome for the Bank.
In the event of an upside surprise in the Inflation Report that was largely attributed to a spike in housing costs, the Bank is likely to be more flexible with its ultimate rate decision, but a print above 0.5% would still make it very difficult to justify a cut.
In that event, markets would readily switch their focus to a November cut, expecting some correction to the housing “spike”.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
</body></html>

Housing pressures in the June quarter will be critical for underlying inflation:  Westpac's Bill Evans

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
 It’s now four weeks since the Brexit panic on June 24 and since then US and European shares are up 6 percent, British shares are up 9 percent, Australian shares are up 7 percent and Japanese shares are up 11 percent.
Fears around Brexit’s global impact look to have been wildly exaggerated. The only really lasting impact (so far) has been on the British pound which is down another 3 percent leaving it down 11 percent from June 23rd, which understandably reflects the negative impact of Brexit on the UK economy.
Over the past week the rally in shares generally continued with US and European shares up slightly, solid gains in Japanese and Australian shares but a fall in Chinese shares. A combination of good economic data, good US profit results, the absence of a major negative impact outside the UK from Brexit and talk of more policy stimulus in parts of the world are continuing to help. 
Bond yields were generally flat to down, commodity prices were mixed and the $A fell partly in sympathy with NZ moves towards another monetary easing. 
The talk around Japan’s planned fiscal stimulus is continuing to get ramped up with the size of the package supposedly going from ¥10trillion, to ¥20trillion to maybe even ¥30trillion which is around 6 percent of GDP albeit it depends how many years it is spread over. If as we expect it’s focussed on encouraging consumers to spend more then it should have a reasonable chance of success. 
In maybe a sign of things to come in Australia – NZ looks to be heading for another rate cut. After a surprisingly low June quarter inflation outcome, the announcement of plans to tighten restrictions on residential mortgage lending and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stating that “a decline in the [$NZ] is needed”, the RBNZ has clearly set the scene for a rate cut next month. In fact, it doesn’t mince words stating that “it seems likely that further policy easing will be required”.
The IMF downgraded it global growth forecasts to 3.1 percent for 2016 (from 3.2 percent) and to 3.4 percent for 2017 (from 3.5 percent) on Brexit risks - but hardly a surprise. It must often strike the ordinary investor as weird that much fanfare is given to the IMF downgrading its growth forecasts but share markets seem to largely ignore it. There are several reasons for this but in essence it’s because the market (and most economists) have already moved ahead of the IMF and the IMF global growth forecasts have been starting out too optimistic for years now. 
Since early this decade they have been starting out forecasting 4 percent global growth for the year ahead only to end around 3 percent. This is not great – but it’s not bad either! Just more of the same. 
 One positive from the last week – we learned that Trumps can say thoughtful things. Not to worry that they were Michelle Obama’s. In the week ahead it’s on to the Democrat convention which may be a lot calmer. 
Major global economic events and implications
US data on a roll. Housing data was strong (with solid readings for home builder conditions, starts, sales and home prices), jobless claims remain very low, leading indicators rose more than expected and while the headline Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell readings for shipments, new orders and employment rose solidly. The US housing recovery likely has a long way to go as housing starts at 1.2 million continue to run below underlying demand of 1.5 million with the overbuilding of last decade having been more than worked off. Buying a house in Detroit still looks like a good proposition! 
 Evidence is continuing to build that US profits bottomed in the March quarter. 115 S&amp;P 500 companies have now reported June quarter earnings to date and so far so good with 81 percent beating on earnings and 58 percent beating on sales. While the market expects profits to fall 3 percent from a year ago, this will translate into a rise in profits of 8 percent from the March quarter.
As expected the ECB remained in wait and see mode at its July meeting. However, President Draghi referred to greater uncertainties in reference to Brexit and reiterated the ECB’s “readiness, willingness and ability to act” if necessary. We remain of the view that its QE program will be extended beyond its current expiry of March 2017. 
Eurozone consumer confidence fell only fractionally in July suggesting little impact on confidence (or perhaps it was a case of good riddance). Interestingly the ECB’s bank lending survey showed an increase in demand for loans and a further easing in lending standards which is also a good sign as the survey was conducted before and after the Brexit vote.
Japan’s manufacturing conditions PMI showed a welcome improvement in July albeit it’s still weak.
The Chinese property market recovery remains a positive for Chinese growth – with residential property prices up another 0.8 percent in June or 7.8% year on year. Tier 1 cities are seeing most the gains but Tiers 3 and 4 have picked up. Meanwhile, the MNI Chinese business sentiment index rose in July and significant flooding in parts of China could have a short term positive impact on GDP from rebuilding and may temporarily boost food prices.
Australian economic events and implications
In Australia, the minutes from the RBA’s last Board meeting confirmed that the door is wide open for another rate cut at its August 2 meeting. 
While not as direct as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the RBA indicated that it was waiting on further information on inflation, the labour market and the housing market and the next update of the RBA’s economic forecasts. Since it has described the labour market and the housing market as “mixed” and recent data on both suggest no reason to change that assessment, the implication from the RBA is that should we see another low inflation reading when the June quarter CPI numbers are released on Wednesday then it’s likely that the RBA will cut the cash rate from 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent on August 2. A CPI outcome of 0.4% quarter on quarter  for headline and underlying – which is what we expect - would likely be enough to see the RBA cut again.
What to watch over the next week?
The focus in the week ahead will be on monetary policy -  with June quarter inflation data in Australia providing a guide to whether the RBA will cut rates again next month and both the Fed and Bank of Japan meeting – and European banks with another round of stress tests.
In the US, we expect the Fed (Wednesday) to leave rates on hold as it seeks to gain more confidence that US growth is back on track and that the impact from Brexit will be minimal but to indicate that it still expects to raise rates in a gradual and cautious fashion. 
The US money market is only implying an 8 percent chance of a hike in the week ahead but the Fed may try and push up the market’s probability of a hike going forward which is currently at just 25 percent for September and 45% for December. With US growth averaging around 2 percent, the labour market continuing to tighten with wages growth edging higher and inflation heading up towards target we see more like a 65% chance of a hike in December. The main brake on the Fed will be if the $US rises too strongly as it amounts to a de facto monetary tightening. On the data front in the US expect to see continuing gains in US home prices, a rise in new home sales but a fall in consumer confidence (all Tuesday), softish durable goods orders and a rise in pending home sales (Wednesday), a slight edging up wages growth according to the June quarter employment cost index and a bounce back in annualised GDP growth to 2.6 percent in the June quarter (both Friday) after just 1.1 percent growth in the March quarter. Earnings will also remain a focus with over 100 S&amp;P 500 companies to report June quarter earnings.
In the Eurozone, the focus will be on the latest ECB bank stress tests (Friday) which will indicate whether banks are sufficiently capitalised or not. Italian banks of course will be the main focus, and the stress tests should help clear the way for some of them to be recapitalised. On the data front expect June quarter GDP (Friday) to show moderate economic growth of around 1.5 percent year on year and confidence readings (Thursday) will provide a guide to the impact of Brexit on business confidence. Data will also be released for bank lending (Wednesday) and core inflation (Friday) is likely to have remained around 0.9 percent year on year on July.
The Bank of Japan (Friday) is likely to announce further monetary easing as the Japanese government prepares to unveil its much talked about fiscal stimulus package. While it’s doubtful this will involve “helicopter money” (ie direct BoJ financing of government spending), it is getting close. Rather its likely to involve further monetary easing through some combination of increased ETF purchases and corporate debt purchases and a another cut in the negative deposit rate. Japanese data due Friday is expected to show continued labour market strength and a bounce in industrial production but soft household spending and inflation.
In Australia, expect another low inflation reading on Wednesday for the June quarter to clear the way for an August RBA rate cut. While headline inflation is expected to rise 0.4 percent quarter on quarter thanks to higher petrol prices and a seasonal rise in health costs this is likely to see annual inflation drop to 1.1% year on year and low wages growth and competitive pressures are likely to have seen underlying inflation rise just 0.4%qoq or 1.4%yoy which is down from 1.6%yoy in the March quarter. Export, import and producer price inflation data will also be released. June credit data (Friday) is likely to show that credit growth remains moderate with the stock of lending to property investors continuing to show slower growth.
Outlook for markets
Brexit related risks, Italian bank risks, renewed $US strength as the Fed heads back towards tightening and seasonal September quarter weakness could still see more volatility in shares in the short term. However, beyond near term uncertainties, we anticipate shares trending higher over the next 12 months helped by okay valuations, very easy global monetary conditions and continuing moderate global economic growth. 
Ultra-low bond yields (with one third of the global bond index in negative yield territory) point to a soft medium term return potential from them, but it’s hard to get too bearish in a world of fragile growth, spare capacity, low inflation and ongoing shocks. That said, the recent bond rally has taken yields to pathetic levels leaving them at risk of a snapback. Renewed expectations of a Fed hike may be the driver.
Commercial property and infrastructure are likely to continue benefitting from the ongoing search for yield by investors. 
Dwelling price gains are expected to slow to around 3% over the year ahead, as the heat comes out of Sydney and Melbourne thanks to tougher lending standards and as apartment prices get hit by oversupply in some areas. Prices are likely to continue to fall in Perth and Darwin. 
Cash and bank deposits offer poor returns. 
The Australian dollar is still higher than it should be and the longer term downtrend looks likely to continue as the interest rate differential in favour of Australia narrows as the RBA continues cutting and the Fed eventually resumes hiking, the risk of a sovereign ratings downgrade continues to increase, commodity prices remain in a secular downswing and the $A sees its usual undershoot of fair value. The $A is still likely to fall to around $US0.60 in the years ahead. 
 <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
</body></html>

Interest Rates

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Interest Rates

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News