<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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<p><span>Some 17 more lenders have passed on the interest rate cut, according to finder.com.au.</span></p>
<p><span>This includes online banks who have cut interest rates from between 10 to 15 basis points.</span></p>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

17 more lenders pass on cut following cash rate cut

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<p>The ANZ Australian Housing Update for August said housing demand will begin to slow, most notably for property developers and foreign buyers due to tighter lending standards.</p>
<p>Rate cuts from the RBA in May and August, as well as expectation of more easing is driving pressure on mortgage rates.</p>
<p>The report said for owner-occupiers, the average discounted mortgage rate is now the same as before these macroprudential measures were implemented.</p>
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<p>"We continue to expect that demand for housing will ease from here, driven by tighter lending standards, especially for property developers and foreign buyers," the report said.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>"A number of major lenders have either exited the foreign investor segment of the market or have made a variety of adjustments, including requiring foreign buyers to hold a larger deposit and reducing the amount of overseas income when calculating the ability to service a loan.</p>
<p>"Construction activity is also expected to moderate. Building approvals remain below last year’s peak, suggesting that the rapid growth in starts and work done is unlikely to be sustained. However, a tremendous backlog of work will continue to support construction around record levels.</p>
<p>"In fact, the large backlog of construction work presents a risk of oversupply emerging in some markets. Significant additions to the supply of apartments are forthcoming in Brisbane and Melbourne, raising fears of settlement risk and eventual price declines."</p>
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Housing demand will begin to slow: ANZ 

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>“Record low interest rates”. This seems to be the headline of the year, having been used so many times it is hard to remember any other kind of interest rate. Each time we see this, expectations for another rate cut decrease momentarily, only to return to the same, pre-cut probability-levels after a few weeks. </span></p>
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<p><span>Figure 1 paints a clear picture of a similar short-term outlook, </span>yet weakening long-term expectations.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-12%20at%209.45.34%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-12%20at%209.45.34%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>While this graph does not include data since the rate cut (yields on 10 year treasuries have lifted a whopping 0.03 percent since the July levels shown in Figure 2), we can see almost identical movements at each maturity date from May to June and from June to July.</p>
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<p><span>Yields on 3 year bonds are down 0.05 percent, 5 year bonds are down 0.1 percent and 10 year bonds are down 0.2 percent. </span></p>
<p><span>This is almost a textbook example of yield curve inversion. In fact, yields on 90 day treasury bills in June were identical to those on 10 year bonds at 1.93 percent. </span></p>
<p><span>Other than perhaps transaction costs, there is no reason for an investor to take on the extra risk of longer term securities without any increase in expected return. </span></p>
<p><span>The RBA had little choice but to cut rates again. </span></p>
<p><span>Figure 2 shows a similar picture, with greater inversion in the short and medium-term (up until about 2022) and lower yields on long- term maturities. </span></p>
<p><span>This is a dangerous combination. </span></p>
<p><span>An interest rate cut effectively lowers the short-term cash rate </span>(i.e. 90 day yield), which normalises (steepens) the yield curve.</p>
<p><span>In theory, this stimulates the economy by making borrowing cheaper and incentivising banks to borrow at the short-term rate and lend out at the higher long-term rate. If the curve continues to flatten out (as it did since the last rate cut in May) then this impact is almost entirely negated. Like a see-saw, rates will continue to decrease until long-term expectations increase or at least stabilise. </span></p>
<p><span><em>For more information, <a href="https://secretagent.com.au/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</em></span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Rates will continue to decrease: Secret Agent 

Outgoing Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens highlights limitations and constraints of a super-low interest rate environment

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<p>Aussie Home Loans executive chairman John Symond says low interest rates would ensure the property market stay robust. </p>
<p>"I am expecting low rates for a decade.</p>
<p>" I'm not saying it won't go up, but we won't see 6 to 7 percent interest rates for a decade plus," he told Fairfax Media.</p>
<p>"Mortgages are in a good shape," he said. </p>
<p>"People are still making the same repayment when interest rates were 8 percent.</p>
<p>"The average mortgage holder is two years in front. I'm not saying WA, but the eastern seaboard ... particularly those who have bought property five years ago."</p>
<p>"We took a survey and the net asset value of all the areas where we have loans ...there was a 40 percent equity. In NSW, 50 percent," he said. </p>
<p>Aussie Home Loans has opened its 200th store in Sydney.</p>
<p>He says there is the potential for a 10 to 15 percent price growth in some capital city markets during the next three years as long as employment remained steady.</p>
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Low interest rates for a decade: John Symonds' forecast

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<div class="column">In his final speech as Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens highlighted the limitations and constraints of a super-low interest rate environment.</div>
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<div class="column">“I have serious reservations about the extent of reliance on monetary policy around the world. It isn't that the central banks were wrong to do what they could, it is that what they could do was not enough, and never could be enough, fully to restore demand after a period of recession associated with a very substantial debt build-up”.</div>
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<br>Home loans: The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 1.2 percent in June. Excluding the refinancing of dwellings, the number of loans was up by 2.1 percent.</div>
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<br>Consumer confidence: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment rose by 2 percent in August to 101.0. The confidence index is up 1.6 percent on a year ago. The survey was conducted August 1st-4th.</div>
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<br>The housing finance data has implications for banks, building material suppliers and retailers. The consumer confidence figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending.</div>
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<br>What does it all mean?</div>
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<br>The Reserve Bank Governor has used his last public forum as a seminal speech to discuss a number of wide ranging issues from inflation targeting, the effect super low interest rates, a review of the past decade and also what “normal” growth may be in the current environment. The Governor did ask a lot of questions but as is the case with the Reserve Bank left it up to the public for interpretation.</div>
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<br>However the section of the speech that focussed on looking ahead, discussed the constraints of monetary policy. The Governor highlighted that monetary policy on its own is not enough to boost growth significantly. In fact a combination of public and private investment would be needed to support growth over the medium term. Interestingly the Governor did suggest that the current inflation target is still the right methodology to support longer-term growth outcomes.</div>
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<br>When it comes to the outlook for rates the Governor suggested that Australia is not in isolation and the negative and super low interest rates on a global front has also pushed the Reserve Bank in that direction.</div>
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<div class="column"><a href="/images/2016/08/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-11%20at%208.33.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="column">“We in Australia have done fewer such things, but we are connected to the world, and the effects of policies adopted elsewhere condition the policy choices available to us”.</div>
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<br>The latest data on the housing sector could be classified as somewhat old news given that it predates the Reserve Bank interest rate cut last week. What it does do is provide a useful barometer for housing activity earlier this year. And in that context housing activity remains solid. The value of loans to build new homes stood at a just under $3 billion – easing modestly from the record high of $3.45 billion in March. There is a healthy pipeline of work, with owner occupiers likely to dominate home building and buying.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Interestingly the proportion of fixed rate loans fell sharply<br><ul>
<li>over the past two months to just 13.4 per cent – a six month</li>
<li>low. In addition the number of home loan refinancing transactions fell for the past two months, although it remains well above decade averages. It may be the expectation of further rates cuts seems to have resulted in home owners holding off from fixing rates. No doubt with the latest rate cut and intense competition by lenders it is likely that more home owners will re-evaluate their home loans in coming months. The anticipated lift in refinancing will eventually provide additional savings to household budgets – injecting fresh spending power into the economy.</li>
</ul>
The average loan size recorded a sizable 5.7 per cent in June. In fact the gain was the strongest percentage increase in nine months. The May rate cut may have been catalyst for the lift in home loan size, providing mortgages holders with the opportunity to comfortably service larger loans. It should be noted that the average home loan is also influenced by home prices, composition of borrowers and the geographic location of home purchases.<br><p>The monthly consumer confidence data is now merely useful as a check against the timelier weekly survey. The ANZ-Roy Morgan survey has the same number of survey respondents as the monthly series, has been running over the same number of years and covers the same questions but is conducted each week. And what is clear from both surveys is that confidence levels are a little higher than where they were a month ago. The consumer confidence reading on both fronts remains “ok”, with consumers modestly optimistic about life. </p>
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<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Housing finance - number</p>
<p>The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 1.2 per cent in June after falling by 0.8 per cent in June. Excluding the refinancing of dwellings, the number of loans was up by 2.1 per cent.</p>
The number of new home loans was up by 6.7 per cent on a year ago.<br>Loans by owner-occupiers for the construction of homes rose by 2.1 per cent in June.</div>
<div class="column">Loans to buy newly-erected dwellings rose by 2.7 per cent.</div>
<div class="column">Loans for the purchase of established dwellings (excluding refinancing) rose by 1 per cent.</div>
<div class="column">The number of refinancing transactions fell by 0.4 per cent. </div>
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<p><span>Housing finance - value</span></p>
<ul>
<li> The value of new housing commitments (owner occupier and investment) rose by 2.3 per cent in June after rising by 1.8 per cent in May.</li>
<li>Owner-occupier loans rose by 1.8 per cent while investment loans rose by 3.2 per cent.</li>
<li> The value of loans by owner-occupiers and investors to build new homes fell by 1.3 per cent in June after rising by 3.5 per cent in May.</li>
<li>The value of loans to build new homes eased further from the record highs of $3.45 billion in March to $2.99 billion in June.</li>
</ul>
Housing finance – other statistics<br><p><span></span><span>The proportion of first-time buyers </span><span>in the home loan market rose from a 12-year low of 14.2 percent in May to 14.3 percent in June. (However the figures take into account refinancing loans and as such the figures may misrepresent the true situation). </span></p>
<p><span>The proportion of fixed rate loans </span><span>fell from 14.7 percent to 13.4 percent in June. And the </span><span>average home loan </span><span>across Australia stood at $360,100 in June, up 3.5 percent on a year ago. </span></p>
<p><span>Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment:</span></p>
<p>The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence rose by 2 percent in August to 101.0. The confidence index is up 1.6 percent on a year ago.</p>
<p>The current conditions index rose by 1.3 percent while the expectations index rose by 2.4 percent.</p>
Four of the five components of the index rose in August:<br><p>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up by 1 per cent;  The estimate of family finances over the next year was up by 4.3 per cent;</p>
<ul>
<li> Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up by 3.5 per cent;</li>
<li> Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down by 0.7 per cent;</li>
<li> The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up by 1.6 per cent.</li>
</ul>
Gender &amp; demographics: Men (index reading of 104.1, up 1.5 per ent) were still more optimistic than Women 98.1, up 2.4 percent). The sentiment index for young people rose by 3.9 percent to 112.9 in August. Across the other demographics: 25-44 years (index 103.0, up by 1.1 percent); 45 years plus (index 96.9, up 2.1 per cent).<br><p>  Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? – Index up 10.1 per cent in the month and up 9.2 per cent on the year.</p>
<p>  Housing Finance data is produced monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and shows commitments by lenders, such as banks, to provide finance for housing purposes. The lending figures relate to those looking to buy or build homes to live in as well as those seeking to buy or build homes for investment purposes. Generally people get their finance organised first, so the figures are regarded as a leading indicator on the housing market.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-11%20at%208.34.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-11%20at%208.34.05%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>  Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the Index of Consumer Sentiment each month. According to Melbourne Institute: “The survey of consumer sentiment was first undertaken in 1973 and was conducted on a quarterly basis until 1976, a six-weekly basis from 1976 to 1986, and has been conducted monthly ever since.” Confident consumers may be more inclined to spend, especially on major items.</p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
  The housing sector will continue to be a key driver of growth, given the amount of home building on the horizon. Home prices are lifting, but investors need to be more cautious about the outlook. Arguably we are near the point of maximum velocity. The plethora of cranes dotting skylines across the country indicate that plenty of sparkling new apartments will be coming onto the market over the next few years</div>
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<div class="column">CommSec expects a further interest rate cut in November. </div>
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<div class="column"><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em></div>
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RBA Governor questions benefit of lower rates: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<div id="post-body-3728627092930340920" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Measures taken to slow the housing market in 2015 did their job effectively, largely by restricting the amount that people could borrow.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although there have been two interest rate cuts since May - a valedictory "double tap" from Governor Stevens, if you will - serviceability calculations continue to be assessed at a more stringent level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As a result borrowers can generally borrow little more than was the case before the most recent salvo of easing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was to some extent reflected in the Housing Finance figures for June, released by the ABS today following a troublesome Census night website crash.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although the average loan size has been increasing steadily again from $352,200 to $360,100 since February, this figure remains below the peak of $382,300 seen in November last year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And it's a similar story for first homebuyer loan sizes. </div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/08/11/A2.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>At the state level, the first homebuyer loan sizes figures show the impact of tighter serviceability calculations.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/11/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Total finance</span></strong><br><br><div>The net effect of this is that although trend total monthly housing finance has also now been rising again for the past few months - back up to well above $32 billion - the total value of commitments for now remains below the peak of $32.7 billion seen in June last year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor lending was the main target of the macroprudential crackdown, as you can see in the chart below. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the speed of investor credit growth now only about half of the arbitrary 10 per cent "speed limit", investor lending has now been trending up again for the past six months, albeit at a far less frantic pace than seen previously.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/11/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Homebuyers return</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>The level of activity of homebuyers in the market has generally been relatively lower than we have seen in previous cycles, in part due to the sheer volume of investors in the Sydney and Melbourne markets since interest rates were dropped.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, following the effectively imposed caps on investor lending banks are now targeting the home loan market, and the trend number of monthly owner-occupier commitments has continued to rise to the highest level since June 2009. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/11/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br><br><div>The number of owner-occupier commitments is trending solidly higher in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Homebuyer activity remains high in Sydney and Melbourne, but these markets will also be impacted by serviceability constraints.</div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/08/11/A6.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>Indeed, this is reflected in the dampened trend monthly value of owner-occupier commitments in the two most populous states in the chart below.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The homebuyer trend value of commitments appears to be strongest in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/11/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">That said there has been a marked resurgence in investor lending in Sydney, sending preliminary auction clearance rates to their highest level of the year, at above 80 per cent.</div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Overall, despite lots of alarmist reporting housing finance is tracking both at a historically high level, and is now accelerating again.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And remember that these figures for June pre-date an interest rate cut delivered in August.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's also worth remembering that the underlying demand for mortgages right now is enormous - the only reason lending slowed was because regulators were getting concerned about the sheer wight of demand for borrowing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data seem to be following a remarkably similar trajectory to what we saw in the United Kingdom following its own macroprudential intervention (the so-termed Mortgage Market Review). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That is the initial shock clonked the market on to the back foot, but as the dust settles lending is on the rise again - just more steadily than it was before.<br><br>Finally, the ABS reported a small increase in first homebuyer activity, but as disclosed by the ABS these data remain incomplete.<br><br>NAB's survey for Q2 2016 showed that first homebuyers accounted for 1 in 3 new home sales in the June quarter, and 29 per cent of established home sales.</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> 
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Housing finance accelerating again: Pete Wargent

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<p>Heritage Bank has lifted its profit in 2015/16, despite loan approvals being down slightly.</p>
<p>Its retail deposits grew strongly, up by $294 million (6.05 percent) to $5.16 billion.</p>
<p>Its chairman Mr Kerry Betros said the results reflected the key drivers of a renewed corporate strategy that is now being implemented. <br><br>“Our Roy Morgan customer satisfaction rating at 30 June 2016 was 94.3 percent, the highest of any financial institution in Queensland,” he said. <br><br>“Canstar Blue awarded Heritage the 2016 Most Satisfied Customers award in the Challenger Bank category across Australia <br><br>“We also took out the 2016 Mozo People's Choice Award for overall customer satisfaction, an award based on actual customer reviews completed throughout Australia during the year. <br><br>“In addition, independent analysis by research company CANSTAR, found that our customers were $50 million a year better off in 2015/16 through banking with Heritage rather than one of the big four banks. <br><br>“That’s a compelling demonstration of how banking with a customer-owned organisation provides tangible benefits for our customers.<br><br>“Our mutual ethos stretches back to our origins in Toowoomba 141 years ago."</p>
<p>Australia’s largest mutual bank, with a national presence, reported a capital adequacy ratio at 30 June 2016 was 13.95% and its liquidity ratio was 15.94%, well above regulatory requirements.</p>
<p>Heritage’s mortgage loan arrears greater than 30 days was 0.30 percent at 30 June 2016, well below the industry average. </p>
<p>Its CEO Peter Lock said today that Heritage's unaudited financial results for the 2015/16 year showed pre-tax profit of $51.11 million, up 6.46 percent on the $48.01 million achieved the previous year.  </p>
<p>The after tax profit was $36.14 million, up 7.53 percent on the $33.61 million achieved in 2014/15. <br><br>Loan approvals were down slightly (3.26 percent), reaching $1.78 billion in 2015/16 compared to $1.84 billion in the previous year. </p>
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Heritage Bank lends less, but profits up

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>As expected, the statement fell short of providing explicit forward guidance, but we interpret the larger number of risks to the outlook and the RBA’s forecast that average underlying inflation would be stuck at the bottom of the 2-3 percent target band by the end of 2018 as a strong easing bias.</p>
<p>Our base case is that rates remain on hold at 1.5 percent, but we see a clear risk of further cuts given the RBA expects persistently low inflation and with banks passing on only half of this week’s rate cut to home loan customers. The AUD is also important given the RBA thinks it still poses a “significant source of uncertainty” around the outlook.</p>
<p>In our view, today’s statement reinforces this risk. With the cash rate now close to the 1 percent floor for the cash rate, we think the RBA would be looking more closely at unconventional options if downside risks to the outlook materialise.</p>
<p>Persistently low inflation points to an easing bias. As expected, the RBA’s forecast profile for underlying inflation was unchanged, showing inflation at or below the bottom of the 2-3 percent target band for the entire forecast period.</p>
<p>Importantly, in our opinion, the RBA’s initial forecast for Q4 2018 showed average inflation remaining at the bottom of the target band rather than returning to the 2.5 percent midpoint. We think this is a dovish signal, given that the RBA cut rates this week and the forecasts are based on market pricing, which was for another rate cut.</p>
<p>Near-term growth was revised higher, but the RBA is more uncertain about the outlook. The RBA revised near-term growth higher given Q1 GDP was significantly higher than it had expected, but left the rest of its forecast profile for modest growth unchanged. Unemployment was expected to “move only a little lower”, with a degree of spare capacity in the labour market for some time. The statement highlighted the uncertainty about the outlook, citing China, the labour market, the housing market, and the exchange rate.</p>
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<p>We think the RBA would be looking more closely at unconventional options if downside risks to the economy materialise. We think the RBA would have to look more closely at unconventional policies if, say, the economy takes a turn for the worse, the exchange rate unexpectedly strengthened, and/or low inflation expectations kept actual inflation below the target band. The RBA thought the likelihood of using such options was “very remote”, but we are much less sure given the cash rate is close to the RBA’s 1 percent floor.</p>
<p>Governor Stevens may talk about the limits to monetary policy next week.</p>
<p>The Governor is speaking on 10 August at what might be his last speaking engagement before his term finishes on 17 September. We think he may cover familiar ground, emphasising that central banks are having to shoulder too much of the burden of supporting growth and argue that there are limits to what can be achieved with monetary policy. He may also repeat his support for the RBA’s inflation targeting framework and argue that tougher regulations have put the banks in a better place. </p>
<p><span><em>Kieran Davies is an economist for ANZ and can be contacted <a href="https://www.anz.com/personal/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></span></p>
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Clear risk of further cuts from RBA: ANZ's Kieran Davies

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The big, but completely unsurprising, news this week was the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting the cash rate to an historic low 1.50 percent.</p>
<p>As Vital Signs has been saying for some time, this month was a likely candidate for a cut, once second-quarter inflation was confirmed to be disturbingly low – as it was last week.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/05/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-05%20at%208.48.39%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/05/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-05%20at%208.48.39%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Australia is faced with extremely low inflation, low effective growth, a squishy labour market, and prudential regulation measures enacted last year partially reigning in the housing market. Given this, it was almost inevitable Glenn Stevens would engineer another cut.</p>
<p>But there were some other figures of note this week. Australian retail trade rose 0.1 percent in June, compared to market expectations of 0.3 percent – further underlining the weak domestic economy.</p>
<p>Adding to that story of gloom, private sector building approvals were down in June, both in absolute terms and relative to expectations. House approvals fell 2.3 percent implying a 5.9 percent drop compared to a year earlier. Apartment approvals fell 2.4 percent, implying a 4.8 percent drop year-on-year.</p>
<p>Chinese manufacturing data was mixed – or perhaps just confusing – with the official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) down to 49.9, from 50.0 the month before. Recall that 50 is the break even between expansion and contraction. Meanwhile, the private Caixin index came in at 50.6 in July, up from 48.6 in June. This was the first jump above 50 since February 2015.</p>
<p>Why the difference? The likely answer is that the official government PMI is more relevant for large, state-owned enterprises, while the Caixin index is a better gauge of smaller and medium-size companies.</p>
<p>In the US, payroll processing firm ADP’s latest data revealed a 179,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July. This was essentially confirmation of the official Bureau of Labor Statistics figures (though on a slightly different scale) of strong job creation in the US. This is further evidence of the likelihood of a rise in official rates by the Fed in the next month or two.</p>
<p>Now, back to Australian interest rates. Lower rates only have a potential stimulatory effect if they are passed on to borrowers by (largely) the big 4 banks. About half of Tuesday’s cut was passed on – with the rest “kept” for bank shareholders.</p>
<p>On Thursday afternoon, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison announced at a press conference that the big 4 banks would have to front the House Economics Committee annually to “explain” their interest rate decisions.</p>
<p>Populist nonsense? Interventionist joke? Meaningless charade? Those are all phrases that come to mind. Turnbull grinned like a Cheshire cat as he described it as a “great opportunity” for the banks. Ho, ho, ho.</p>
<p>I’m no apologist for the banks, but they do have a legitimate argument that their funding costs have been rising. The US money market funds are much harder to tap as they have become significantly more conservative after the Primary Reserve Fund “broke the buck<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/broke-the-buck.asp">”</a> during the financial crisis. Deposits now make up about 60% of bank funding, compared to 40 percent in 2007-08 – and those rates have been rising.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the banks do have a good deal of market power. It’s legitimate for them to use that, unless they are violating competition law. That’s a matter for the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, not the House Economics Committee.</p>
<p>One final note. To all those people who keep saying “rates have been cut a lot and it hasn’t done any good”: please search my name and the word “counterfactual”.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Richard Holden is p</span>rofessor of economics, UNSW Australia and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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