An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.

The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.

The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.

Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" />

It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.

The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." />

Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.

&nbsp;

At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" />

The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.

The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.

Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.

Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.

The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" />

Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.

At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" />

The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.

Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.

The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" />

The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.

Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.

Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

Interest Rates

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Members commenced their discussion of developments in financial markets by noting that financial markets had been volatile around the time of the UK referendum on EU membership.
Despite large intraday movements in prices and much greater than normal volumes, market functioning had been resilient. Members noted that this event had provided a significant stress test of market structure in the wake of the regulatory reforms introduced after the financial crisis.
The most noteworthy developments that had persisted beyond the volatility immediately surrounding the UK referendum were the depreciation of the pound, the appreciation of the yen and the decline in bond yields to historic lows in a number of major markets as well as in Australia. Sovereign yields in the United Kingdom had declined considerably, notwithstanding the UK's credit rating being downgraded. Members noted that a sizeable share of the global sovereign bond market was trading at negative rates. Swiss government bond yields were negative up to a tenor of nearly 50 years. In Australia, the 10-year bond yield reached a record low of 1.95 per cent, with the decline in the yield on Friday, 24 June having been the largest daily fall since September 2001. Some bond spreads for financial institutions in the United Kingdom and Europe had widened a little, but most other financial market movements in response to the referendum had subsequently been unwound.
Expectations for the path of monetary policy in the United States had already eased prior to the UK referendum, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) keeping monetary policy unchanged at its 15 June meeting owing to concerns about a slowing in the US labour market as well as uncertainties surrounding the UK referendum. Following the referendum, market expectations had declined further so that the FOMC was not expected to raise its policy rate again before 2018. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) were expected to ease monetary policy further in the near future. The ECB had commenced its corporate bond purchase program in June, as had been announced in March.
Following the UK referendum, the pound fell sharply to its lowest level against the US dollar in over three decades. On 24 June, the pound depreciated against the US dollar by as much as 12 per cent and recorded the largest single-day movement since the pound was floated in 1971. Throughout the day, there were large volumes traded in both directions. Members noted that, as at the time of the meeting, the pound had depreciated by 9 per cent in trade-weighted terms since the referendum but remained above the levels it had reached in 2008.
Over the past month as a whole, the US dollar and euro were little changed in trade-weighted terms, while the Chinese renminbi had depreciated in both trade-weighted terms and against the US dollar. A decline in the value of the People's Bank of China's foreign currency reserves in May appeared to have reflected valuation effects, but overall the value of reserves had been broadly stable over the past few months.
The Australian dollar had appreciated against the US dollar and in trade-weighted terms over the past month, having been affected by changing expectations about the future path of monetary policy in Australia and the United States, as well as the UK referendum result.
Global share prices fell sharply following the UK referendum, but, with the exception of Japan and Europe, had subsequently largely recovered. Banking share prices were generally lower, particularly those of European and domestically focused UK banks. Members noted that ongoing problems in the Italian banking system had again come to the fore. In Australia, share prices had declined by around 4 per cent over the course of the 2015/16 financial year, with divergent outcomes across sectors reflecting the continued rebalancing of the economy following the mining investment boom.
Spreads on Australian bank debt had moved marginally higher following the UK referendum, but yields had remained at low levels. Members observed that Australian banks had issued a large amount of debt earlier in the year, limiting the need for further issuance in the near term if conditions in debt markets were unsettled. Average outstanding housing lending rates were expected to continue to edge lower as loans were refinanced following the cash rate reduction in May, although members noted that banks' serviceability requirements for borrowers had not changed.
Members noted that market pricing had assigned only a small chance of a reduction in the cash rate at the present meeting.
International Economic Conditions
Members noted that, while the UK referendum decision was likely to have an adverse effect on the UK economy, it was too early to gauge the size of that effect. Also, any adverse effects on growth arising from a reduction in access to EU markets and heightened political uncertainty were likely to be offset to some extent in the near term by the depreciation of the pound. In 2015, around one-half of the United Kingdom's exports (12 per cent of GDP) went to EU countries. Around one-half of these exports were services, of which around one-third were financial services. Estimates from the International Monetary Fund had suggested that in a relatively pessimistic scenario, in which output in the United Kingdom was around 5 per cent lower than otherwise over three years, global growth could average a little more than 0.1 percentage points lower over the next few years. Members noted that the direct effect on the Australian economy was likely to be quite small, given that only around 3 per cent of Australia's exports went to the United Kingdom and around 4½ per cent went to the rest of the European Union.
Meanwhile, growth in Australia's major trading partners looked to have remained a little below average over recent months. Growth in global industrial production had remained weak in year-ended terms, while growth in merchandise trade had picked up slightly. Inflation had generally remained below most central banks' targets, although core inflation in the major advanced economies had picked up since the previous year as labour market conditions had tightened further. Overall, commodity prices had risen over the month to be well above the low levels reached around the turn of the year.
GDP growth in the United States appeared to have picked up in the June quarter, after moderating in the March quarter, and the gradual recovery in the euro area looked to have continued. In both economies, activity in the March quarter had been driven by relatively strong growth in household consumption. Members noted that business investment had contributed to growth in the euro area and in the United States (excluding the energy sector). Growth in business investment in the United Kingdom had been moderating, which may have been partly related to the effect of uncertainty leading up to the UK referendum.
Although US employment growth had moderated in May, the unemployment rate had declined to be below estimates of its long-run equilibrium. Inflation remained below the Federal Reserve's inflation goal, although it was higher than it had been a year earlier. The unemployment rate had also declined further in the euro area, although considerable spare capacity remained. Inflation had continued to be well below the ECB's target of 2 per cent or a little below. In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate had fallen to around long-run equilibrium levels and core inflation had been picking up.
Recent data suggested that economic growth in China had continued to ease. Subdued conditions in the mining and manufacturing sectors had contributed to weakness in private investment. The output of some key industrial products, including steel, had been little changed over the past year, although iron ore imports from Australia had increased further. Members noted that the general weakness in industrial activity had been partly offset by an increase in public sector spending, which had been particularly apparent in the strong growth of public infrastructure investment over the past year or so. Dwelling investment had also picked up since late 2015, following measures by the Chinese authorities to support demand for real estate. Buoyant property market conditions, particularly in some larger cities, had more recently prompted authorities in some regions to introduce measures to constrain housing demand. Total social financing flows had moderated in recent months and overall inflationary pressures remained subdued.
In Japan, conditions in the labour market remained tight and base wages were rising at an above-average pace. However, inflation was still below the Bank of Japan's target of 2 per cent. In the rest of east Asia, recent data pointed to a continuation of below-average growth. Economic conditions had been relatively subdued in the higher-income economies in the region, in part reflecting their greater exposure to trade.
Domestic Economic Conditions
Members observed that there had been relatively little new data on the Australian economy since the previous meeting, most of which had related to labour and housing markets. Overall, the available data for the June quarter were consistent with a moderation in GDP growth following the stronger-than-expected outcome in the March quarter, mainly because there appeared to have been a smaller contribution to growth from net exports in the June quarter. Trade data suggested that iron ore export volumes had declined from very high levels in April and May, while coal export volumes had increased marginally.
Consumption had grown at around its decade-average rate in the March quarter. More recent indicators had been mixed. The value of retail sales had increased only slightly in April and May but liaison indicated that growth in retail sales had picked up in June, partly because cold weather had boosted clothing and apparel sales. However, liaison had also pointed to ongoing pressure to discount prices in response to increased competition in some retail markets. Meanwhile, survey measures of households' perceptions of their own finances had increased in May and June, to be clearly above average.
Survey measures of business conditions and capacity utilisation had remained noticeably above their long-run averages in May. Members noted that these indicators were consistent with data and evidence from liaison suggesting that non-mining business investment had been growing in some parts of the economy that were less exposed to the effects of the decline in commodity prices and the fall in mining investment. Business credit growth was higher than a year earlier, despite easing a little recently. Liaison had suggested that the outlook for investment was relatively favourable in some commercial property sectors including retail, hotels, student accommodation and aged care. However, non-residential building approvals had remained at relatively low levels over the past year.
The unemployment rate had remained steady at around 5¾ per cent for some months, having fallen by around ½ percentage point over 2015, and the participation rate had been little changed of late. Following strong outcomes in late 2015, employment growth had moderated to be around its long-run average in year-ended terms. Over the course of 2016, employment growth had been driven by part-time jobs, while full-time employment had retraced some of its earlier strong gains. Members noted that, over the past year or so, the underemployment rate (which captures those who are employed but wanting and available to work more hours) had not fallen to the same extent as the unemployment rate. Employment growth had been relatively strong in the household services sector since the beginning of 2016 and construction employment had been rising. The forward-looking indicators of employment had been slightly weaker over recent months following gains over the preceding year, but were still consistent with employment growth in the months ahead.
Housing prices in June had risen moderately in Sydney but had declined in some other capital cities. This followed unusually large increases recorded in April and May, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Other indicators of housing market activity had been mixed over recent months. Auction clearance rates and sales volumes had been lower than a year earlier, although both remained a little above average. Housing credit growth had eased further, consistent with a relatively low level of turnover in the housing market and the earlier tightening in lending standards.
Recent indicators suggested that dwelling investment had continued to grow strongly, particularly for higher-density dwellings. Looking through the volatility of the data, building approvals were a little lower than a year earlier but remained elevated and implied a considerable amount of work yet to be done. At the same time, a number of measures were being implemented that could dampen foreign investors' demand for new dwellings. Several state governments had increased or were preparing to increase taxes on foreign investors in housing, while the major banks had increased restrictions on housing loan approvals for applicants relying on foreign income. Nationally, growth in rents had declined over the past year to low levels and the vacancy rate had increased to around its long-term average.
Measures of inflation expectations – from consumers, market economists, union officials and financial markets – had remained below average.
Considerations for Monetary Policy
GDP growth in Australia's major trading partners looked to have remained slightly below average over recent months, in line with earlier forecasts. GDP growth in China appeared to have eased further, which was continuing to affect economic conditions throughout the Asian region. Monetary policy remained very accommodative across the major economies and was expected to remain so given that inflation was below most central banks' targets, despite improvements in labour markets leading to full employment in several large advanced economies.
The United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union had led to considerable financial market volatility, which had since settled. Financial markets had functioned effectively throughout the episode and borrowing costs for high-quality borrowers remained low. Any effects of the referendum outcome on UK and global economic activity remained to be seen. In any event, the referendum result implied a period of uncertainty about the outlook for the United Kingdom and the European Union. In the absence of significant financial dislocation, the staff's central case was that this uncertainty was expected to have only a modest adverse effect on global economic activity.
Commodity prices had generally increased since the previous meeting. At the time of the present meeting, the Australian dollar (in trade-weighted terms) was around the levels assumed in the forecasts at the time of the May Statement on Monetary Policy.
In the domestic economy, the transition of economic activity to the non-resources sector was now well advanced and recent data suggested that growth had continued at a moderate pace in the June quarter. Low interest rates were continuing to support household spending and the lower exchange rate since 2013 had continued to assist the traded sector of the economy. Members noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the necessary economic adjustments.
Recent data showed that conditions in the labour market had been more mixed of late. The unemployment rate had remained around 5¾ per cent for most of 2016, having fallen noticeably over 2015. Inflation was still expected to remain quite low for some time given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world.
Indicators of conditions in housing markets had been somewhat mixed over recent months. Housing prices were recorded as having risen in Sydney and Melbourne in April and May, but were little changed in June. Building approvals remained elevated at levels that would add to the considerable amount of dwelling construction work already in the pipeline. Considerable supply of apartments was scheduled to come on stream over the next few years, particularly in the eastern capital cities. At the same time, however, housing credit growth had eased, in line with a lower turnover of housing and the earlier tightening in banks' lending standards following the announcement of supervisory measures. Various state government measures and changes to bank lending requirements were likely to temper foreign investor demand for housing.
Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding monetary policy steady would be the most prudent course of action at this meeting. The Board noted that further information on inflationary pressures, the labour market and housing market activity would be available over the following month and that the staff would provide an update of their forecasts ahead of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. This information would allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate.
The Decision
The Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.75 percent.
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Minutes of the July monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

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GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes of the July monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board confirmed the importance of next week’s June Quarter inflation report. 
The key sentences in the concluding paragraph of the “Considerations for Monetary Policy” section state: “The Board noted that further information on inflationary pressures, the labour market and housing market activity would be available over the following month and that the staff would provide an update of their forecasts ahead of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. This information would allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate.”
The minutes noted that there had been relatively little new data on the Australian economy since the previous Board meeting, most of which had related to labour and housing markets.
On both counts the commentary seemed to be less upbeat. Employment growth was described as having “moderated” and it was noted that the employment growth over the course of 2016 had been driven by part time jobs while full time employment had retraced some of its earlier strong gains. 
The minutes have not referred specifically to “the underemployment rate” (those who are unemployed or employed but wanting to work more hours) over the course of this year. In these minutes the Board chooses to highlight that this underemployment rate has not fallen to the same extent as the official unemployment rate indicating that slack in the labour market is greater than implied by the unemployment rate. It is interesting that both these comments put a less positive spin on the labour market than we have seen for some time.
Information on the housing market was also described as mixed with large price increases in April and May in Sydney and Melbourne being followed by only moderate rises in Sydney and falls in some other capital cities in June. Auction clearance rates and sales volumes are described as “lower than a year earlier”.
We are always interested in observations from the minutes on the Banks’ liaison work. In that regard it was noted that non-mining business investment had been growing in some parts of the economy that were less exposed to the decline in mining investment.
However much more importantly, liaison on inflation was less encouraging with the evidence pointing to “ongoing pressure to discount prices in response to increased competition in some retail markets”.
The Bank’s surveys and measures of inflation expectations were noted as having “remained below average”.
The international commentary was balanced, noting that economic growth in China had continued to ease with general weakness in industrial activity being only partly offset by an increase in public sector spending. Commentary around the ‘Brexit’ decision remained balanced with financial markets coping comfortably with the initial volatility while bond rates declined. There are no implied concerns in the commentary around any substantial impact on either the world economy or specifically the Australian economy from those developments.
The key sentence around the Australian dollar that has been recently used in minutes and the Governor’s statements has been repeated: “Members noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the necessary economic adjustments”. However the minutes noted that the Australian TWI was around the levels assumed in the May forecasts. In the forecasts the TWI was assumed at 62.5; reached 63 on the day of the Board meeting and has since risen further to 64.
Conclusion
The minutes clearly leave the door open for another rate cut in August. This will depend upon the June quarter inflation report and of course it is not clear what would be the upper bound for this report to ensure a follow up rate cut.
Westpac’s current forecast for underlying inflation in the quarter is 0.3 percent which would support the need for another move given that underlying inflation would only have risen by 0.5 percent over the course of the first half of 2016 raising a genuine question mark as to whether even the Bank’s current 1.5 percent forecast could be achieved.
A lower result for 2016 would also place the 2 percent (bottom of the 2-3 percent target range) forecast for 2017 in jeopardy.
While the Board and the Governor consistently note that the level of the AUD could complicate the economic outlook there does not appear to be any heightened concern about the current level of the currency indicating that the inflation report will be the dominant issue from the perspective of policy.
Other interesting aspects of the minutes are a more subdued sentiment towards labour markets; no hint of any concerns about the impact of the May rate cut on housing markets; and a further downbeat assessment of the Chinese economy.
At the margin, all these factors slightly improve prospects for lower rates but in the event of an upside surprise on inflation will not be enough to deliver a follow up rate cut.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA's sober assessment of the labour market and housing: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Board minutes make it clear that policymakers are waiting on more timely economic data to gauge how the economy is tracking.
However the minutes have also set the scene for next week’s inflation data and the subsequent August 2 Board meeting – highlighting potential triggers for an interest rate cut.
What makes the prospect of another rate cut a possibility in coming months is not just the modest slowdown in the economy over the past six months, but also the discussion on the Australian dollar. Board members noted that “at the time of the present meeting, the Australian dollar (in trade-weighted terms) was around the levels assumed in the forecasts at the time of the May Statement on Monetary Policy.”
Interestingly since that meeting the Australian dollar is around US1 cent higher. There was still the usual jawboning on the need for a lower Aussie dollar, with Board members noting that “an appreciation in the exchange rate could complicate the necessary economic adjustments”
A super-low inflation result would pave the way for the Reserve Bank to cut rates again. However the RBA would need to feel confident that a rate cut would have the desired impact in driving the Aussie dollar lower. Most central banks that have eased monetary policy in the past have seen their  currencies continue to strengthen. However it is easier to justify another rate cut in light of slower employment growth and softer retail activity over the first half of 2016 – although it could be election related.
<a href="/images/2016/07/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-20%20at%207.58.23%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-20%20at%207.58.23%20AM.png" alt="">
Consumer confidence has drifted low for the past four weeks, but it is nothing to be worried about. Rather a post- election hangover. In fact Aussie households have a lot of reasons to be more chipper about life. Not only are interest rates at generational lows, but petrol prices are falling, and job security is strong – all important in improving household budgets. In addition the Federal election is out of the way and share markets are now holding near 11 month highs – all ingredients that should hopefully result in consumers spending a little bit more freely in coming months. 
What do the figures show?
 The key quotes from the Board minute:  Economic growth: “Overall, the available data for the June quarter were consistent with a moderation in GDP growth following the stronger-than-expected outcome in the March quarter, mainly because there appeared to have been a smaller contribution to growth from net exports in the June quarter”.
  Australian dollar: “Low interest rates were continuing to support household spending and the lower exchange rate since 2013 had continued to assist the traded sector of the economy. Members noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the necessary economic adjustments”.
  Inflation: “Inflation was still expected to remain quite low for some time given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world.”
Consumer spending: “The value of retail sales had increased only slightly in April and May but liaison indicated that growth in retail sales had picked up in June, partly because cold weather had boosted clothing and apparel sales. However, liaison had also pointed to ongoing pressure to discount prices in response to increased competition in some retail markets.”
 Summary: “Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding monetary policy steady would be the most prudent course of action at this meeting. The Board noted that further information on inflationary pressures, the labour market and housing market activity would be available over the following month and that the staff would provide an update of their forecasts ahead of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. This information would allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate.”  Consumer confidence
The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 0.3 percent to 114.9 in the week to July 17. Confidence is up 2.8 percent over the year and well above the average of 112.1 since 2014. Three of the five components of the index fell in the latest week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was unchanged at +7;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +30 to +28;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from -4 to -1;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +9 to +7;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +34 points to +33 points.  What is the importance of the economic data?
  The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
  The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.  What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
 Overall it is clear that the low inflation environment provides the central bank with scope to cut rates further if deemed necessary. The next round of inflation data is released next week and essentially means that the mostly likely scenario for another rate cut would be at the August Board meeting. 
Click to enlarge
<img src="/images/2016/07/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-20%20at%208.04.01%20AM.png" alt="">
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Inflation to decide on rate cut: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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Canstar have looked at the current highest, lowest and average home loan rates on the canstar.com.au database. 
"The message for consumers is that no matter what the official cash rate is, most borrowers could definitely be saving money on their mortgage, if they know what’s on offer and are prepared to drive a hard negotiation with their bank," a spokesperson advised.
Here are the current highest, lowest and average home loan rates, for both owner-occupied and investor loans.  
<a href="/images/2016/07/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-07%20at%209.08.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-07%20at%209.08.05%20AM.png" alt="">
<a href="/images/2016/07/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-07%20at%209.08.39%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-07%20at%209.08.39%20AM.png" alt="">
Here’s what borrowers could save 
For owner-occupiers, based on the current average standard variable rate and a 25 year loan term, negotiating a 0.5 percent lower rate could potentially save the following: 
<a href="/images/2016/07/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-07%20at%209.10.57%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-07%20at%209.10.57%20AM.png" alt="">
<a href="/images/2016/07/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-07%20at%209.11.06%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-07%20at%209.11.06%20AM.png" alt="">
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

The lowest home loan and investor interest rates in July 2016

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GUEST OBSERVER
There were no surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia which left the official cash rate on hold again at a record low of 1.75 percent. This was the consensus expectation and our own. 
For the most part, the Statement accompanying the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates on hold was little changed except in so far as indicating that most markets have continued to function effectively despite the Brexit vote and that its impact on global activity outside the UK may be hard to discern (what was all the fuss about!).  
Furthermore, the RBA continues to sound fairly relaxed about the renewed pick-up in dwelling prices in recent months, particularly given the large supply of apartments to hit the market in the next two years. This suggests that worries about excessive house price growth are probably not constraints on additional RBA monetary easing.
More importantly, changes to the closing paragraph in the RBA’s Statement have arguably softened its neutral bias and opened the door to another easing.  Specifically, the RBA’s newly inserted reference to “further information” over the period ahead that should allow it to refine its outlook and “make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate” is likely a reference to the June quarter inflation data due later this month and possibly a broader reference to allowing time to be able to better assess the impact of Brexit and the Australian election and the risks to the Australian dollar, an appreciation in which the RBA continues to see as complicating the post mining boom adjustment in the economy. Since a rate hike is most unlikely, the “adjustment” that the RBA is referring to is presumably another possible interest rate cut.
We remain of the view that the RBA will cut rates again later this year. The risks to inflation are on the downside thanks to underlying deflationary pressures globally and record low wages growth domestically; the risks to global and Australian growth are still on the downside (with Brexit and the messy Australian election not helping); and the $A is still too high and at risk of further appreciation given the Fed’s endless delays in raising rates again. 
As such we are continuing to allow for two more 0.25 percent rate cuts this year, the first in August just after June quarter inflation data is released and when it next reviews its economic forecasts.
 <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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RBA on hold as expected, awaiting "further information": Shane Oliver

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The world still needs the central banks to bail us out of trouble but the impact of monetary policy is complicated in a world of zero or near-zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) and negative interest-rate policy (NIRP).
Money presents us with three alternatives: we can spend it, save it or invest it. Most households and governments do the first; financial institutions take the third option; and virtually no one saves. Except Asia, obviously.
In 2008, spending and investment froze during the global financial crisis (GFC). This forced central banks and governments to ultimately adopt unorthodox and largely unprecedented strategies. Two tools were available to governments: fiscal stimulus and looser monetary policy. Most governments adopted a mix of both.
However, there are political and financial limits to fiscal policy, particularly as governments grew increasingly overextended during the GFC. Consequently, since 2008, monetary policy has largely displaced fiscal policy as means of generating economic stimulus. Except in Sydney, at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
<h2>ZIRP it. ZIRP it good</h2>
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was the first to adopt ZIRP, as it sought to deal with the aftershocks of the Heisei recession of the early 1990s. This was referred to as Japan’s “lost decade”, as it experienced stagnant growth, a condition still bedevilling the country today, despite the best efforts of Abenomics.
As the global financial crisis emerged throughout 2007–08, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England sank hundreds of billions of their respective currencies into their foundering financial sectors. The People’s Bank of China injected massive liquidity into Chinese markets.
In Australia, the RBA slashed interest rates, with deep successive cuts in 2008–09. Looser monetary policy was matched by the Rudd government’s significant fiscal expansion to prevent the collapse of consumer spending.
The reason behind this fiscal pump priming, combined with the dramatic monetary measures, was clear: in late 2008, credit markets froze. Admittedly, there is much debate about how long and to what extent this occurred. However, the fear of contagion was so palpable that the interbank lending market experienced systemic dysfunction and, at the very least, credit rationing took place.
The problem for central banks is that they have relatively few monetary tools available to them. The traditional lever to prevent overheating is to exert monetary discipline by raising interest rates, thus increasing the cost of credit.
Conversely, under the crisis conditions of the GFC, the central banks slashed interest rates to encourage consumption. However, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank reached their lower limits faster than the RBA, which never adopted ZIRP.
But that may be about to change. The RBA’s cash rate is at a historic low of 1.75 percent, and the bank may cut further as the Australian economy plateaus, combined with the uncertainty wrought by Brexit.
<h2>The new normal</h2>
Make no mistake: ZIRP and even perhaps NIRP are the new normal. Just ask Janet Yellen. When the Federal Reserve chairman increased US interest rates by 0.25% in December 2015, the markets reacted savagely. It was the first Federal Reserve (Fed) rate rise since 2006. 
Fourteen months earlier, Yellen had tapered off the US’s third quantitative easing program (QE3), ending it on schedule in October 2014. Between 2008 and 2014, the Fed had purchased over US$4.5 trillion in government bonds and mortgage-backed securities in three rounds of QE, plus a fourth program, Operation Twist (2011–12).
The outcome was an avalanche of “free” money. Why “free”? Because, in the long run, the real cost of the capital for commercial banks was zero, or less than zero.
The Fed was effectively printing money (although it’s more complex than that). The effects were clear: the US central bank was reflating the American economy, and by extension the global economy, by injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the system in an attempt to ameliorate the worst effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis.
<h2>US Fed moves this year</h2>
No one on the markets was surprised by the central bank’s December 2015 rate rise. The clear objective was to return some semblance of normality to global interest rates.
The problem is it didn’t work. The tapering-off of QE in late 2014 meant that the last sugar hits of stimulus were wearing off in 2015.
The Yellen rate rise, plus the clear intention of the Fed to incrementally drive rates higher, spooked the markets. In May this year, undeterred by gloomy US jobs figures, Yellen indicated that she would seek to raise US interest rates “gradually” and “over time” as US growth continued to improve. Her concern was that adherence to ZIRP would ultimately bite in the form of inflation.
Not anymore. Brexit has seen to that. It was one of the factors behind the Fed committee’s decision to keep interest rates on hold in mid-June.
ZIRP – or something approximating it – is becoming the “new normal” because cheap money has become structural; the global financial system is now structured around the persistence of low-cost credit. NIRP is thus the logical continuum of this downward interest rate spiral.
<h2>Negative interest zates</h2>
Until recently, most macroeconomic textbooks argued that zero was rock bottom for interest rates. The GFC shifted the goalposts.
This is where NIRP enters the picture: negative interest rates. How do they work? Typically, commercial banks will park their money in their accounts with the central bank, or in private markets, such as the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Thus, their money never sleeps and earns interest 24/7, even when bank doors are shut.
But NIRP is different. Negative rates mean depositors pay for the privilege of a bank to hold their money. Which means depositors are better off holding the cash than placing the funds on deposit. Japan has experienced the results of a NIRP first-hand.
There is a method in this madness: the G7 central banks want commercial banks to lend, not to accumulate piles of cash. Consequently, the policy effect of both ZIRP and NIRP is to stimulate business and consumer lending in order to drive real economic activity. With piles of cash looking for investment placements, the shadow banking system of financial intermediaries may also drive enterprise investment.
However, ZIRP and NIRP are blunt instruments; the perverse outcomes of the stimulus programs of the US Fed, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank were artificially inflated stockmarkets and various sector bubbles (such as real estate, classic cars).
The combination of ZIRP and QE may have also created a “liquidity trap”. This means that central banks’ QE injections caused only a sugar rush and did not inflate prices, as one would normally expect from a significant expansion of the monetary base.
Instead, many developed countries have experienced multiple recessions and a prolonged period of deflation. In April this year, the Australian economy experienced deflation for the first time since the GFC, which compelled the RBA to make its most recent 0.25 percent cut in May 2016.
Yellen knows the global economy cannot retain ZIRP indefinitely. But, ironically, all of the central banks are caught in their own liquidity trap: unable to relinquish ZIRP for fear of market catastrophe; unwilling to abandon QE entirely as “the new normal” demands fresh injections of virtually cost-free credit.
<h2>A lack of interest</h2>
The Australian economy has done quite well by having interest rates above the OECD average, particularly since the GFC. This has encouraged significant foreign investment flows into Australia as global investors seek somewhere – anywhere – to park their cash as other safe-haven government bonds, such as the US, Japan and Germany, are in ZIRP or NIRP territory. It also doesn’t hurt that Australia’s major banks and government bonds are blue-chip-rated. And Australian sovereign bonds have excellent yields too.
If ZIRP is the new normal, that matters to the Reserve Bank of Australia. It also matters to all Australian home buyers, businesses, banks, pensioners, investors, students and credit card holders. Everyone, in other words.
ZIRP has created hordes of winners: mortgage interest rates are at historic lows. Property buyers who borrowed when rates were relatively high (at, say, 6-7 percent) are now paying less than 4%. Credit card rates are still astronomically high (20–21 percent or more), but balance transfer rates are zero. New credit issues in terms of consumer debt represented by unsecured loans (which is what a credit card is) have a real capital cost of zero. This is virtually unprecedented.
But ZIRP or near-ZIRP produces many losers as well. There is no incentive to save because rates are so low. Hoarding cash makes no sense.
Global surplus capacity reinforces deflation as both goods and commoditised services are cheap. Wages are terminal. Pension funds’ margins are smaller, thus expanding future liabilities and reducing the value of current superannuation yields.
In a world of ZIRP, is it any wonder that all of this cheap or (effectively) free cash has been stuffed into the global stock exchange and real estate markets, creating not only a double bubble, but double trouble?
<h2>The best things in life are free</h2>
QE is like heroin: the first hit is always free. The commercial banks got their first hit in 2008 and the prospect of going cold turkey sends them into paroxysms of fear.
The problem is that the dealers – the central banks – have started using their own product and are just as hopelessly addicted to both ZIRP and QE. To rudely cut off supply would destroy their own markets.
The RBA is not immune to the elixir of ZIRP. No central bank wants to assume responsibility for a recessionary economy; the RBA took enough heat for its monetary policy mismanagement of 1989-90, which induced the 1990s recession.
Unlike the Fed, the RBA is not about to fire up the printing presses and engage in rounds of QE, if it runs out of tools and is compelled to adopt ZIRP. The RBA is too conservative to engage in such policy in any case.
But this conservatism has a direct impact upon federal government fiscal policy, irrespective of whether the LNP or the ALP is in power. From Rudd to Turnbull, Treasury has been forced to increase its borrowing time and time again, blowing out the forward fiscal projections year after year.
No government has delivered a surplus because it is no longer possible. The RBA is partly responsible for this because, rather than expanding its balance sheet via QE, it has forced Canberra to accumulate government debt of more than $AU400 billion, which the overburdened Australian taxpayer will pay for.
Like most drug deals, this will not end well.
Remy Davison is Jean Monnet Chair in Politics and Economics, Monash University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/remy-davison-2838" target="_blank">here</a>.
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In a world of low rates, what else can the RBA and central banks do?

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RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' July 2016 statement
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. 
The global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace. Several advanced economies have recorded improved conditions over the past year, but conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China's growth rate has moderated further, though recent actions by Chinese policymakers are supporting the near-term outlook.
Commodity prices are above recent lows, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years. Australia's terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.
Financial markets have been volatile recently as investors have re-priced assets after the UK referendum. But most markets have continued to function effectively. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative. Any effects of the referendum outcome on global economic activity remain to be seen and, outside the effects on the UK economy itself, may be hard to discern.
In Australia, recent data suggest overall growth is continuing, despite a very large decline in business investment. Other areas of domestic demand, as well as exports, have been expanding at a pace at or above trend. Labour market indicators have been more mixed of late, but are consistent with a modest pace of expansion in employment in the near term.
Inflation has been quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.
Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 is helping the traded sector. Financial institutions are in a position to lend and credit growth has been moderate. These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.
Indications are that the effects of supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards in the housing market. Separately, a number of lenders are also taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. Dwelling prices have risen again in many parts of the country over recent months. But considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities.
Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding monetary policy steady would be prudent at this meeting. Over the period ahead, further information should allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate.
 
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Watch the considerable apartment supply: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' July 2016 statement

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The RBA cash rate decision came out at 2.30 today with the decision to hold yet again. 
Some 24 of 25 economists expect the cut at the August meeting.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said the RBA has looked through the fog of political uncertainty and global volatility to keep the cash rate on hold. 
"From a housing market perspective there has recently been renewed heat in the Sydney and Melbourne markets where, according to the CoreLogic Home Value Index, the trend rate of growth has bounced higher over the past three months," he said.
"The reversal in what was previously a moderating trend in housing market conditions was likely to have been a concern to the RBA, however CoreLogic's June data showed a slower pace of capital gains compared with April and May which may indicate the recent surge in dwelling value appreciation will be sort lived. 
The chances of interest rates moving lower in August remain high;  June quarter inflation data will be available late this month, providing a timely read on consumer prices prior to the August RBA meeting.  It is likely that the inflation figures will come in well below the RBA target range of 2-3 percent. 
"If that is the case, there is a high likelihood that interest rates will move lower next month. The challenge for policy makers and regulators will be to ensure lower mortgage rates don’t refuel a higher rate of growth in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets where affordability is already stretched and rental yields are pushing to new record lows each month."
LJ Hooker chief executive officer Grant Harrod said a cash rate cut could still come by the traditionally busy spring selling season if market conditions did not resume promptly.
“Sellers can be put off by elections and we’ve just come out of one of the longest campaigns held in Australia,” he said.
“During the recent campaign, listings across the board were down an average of 5 percent across the country compared to the same period last year.
“But history has shown listings rebound after a poll and the RBA, through holding the cash rate at the record low of 1.75 percent today, is waiting for this to happen.
“Buyer enquiry has remained strong throughout the election campaign while the average capital city auction rate hit as high as 72 percent over the period. There’s a strong opportunity for sellers to capitalise on that interest now and beat their competitors ahead of the traditional spring listing period.
"The RBA would still keep an eye on any property ramifications of the Brexit outcome.
“We don’t anticipate any impacts to filter through to the actual property market in the immediate future due to the time it takes to transact. But it may turn out that we benefit from the global conditions as investors seek out alternatives to London.”
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RBA holds again at July 2016 meeting

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The majority of respondents to a survey conducted by online agency iBuyNew found 66 percent of those polled believe the RBA is likely to maintain its cash rate at the current rate of 1.75 percent for the rest of 2016.
Only 23 percent of respondents believe there will be further cash rate cuts, with 11 percent expecting official rates to rise again.
iBuyNew chief executive officer Mark Mendel said while there is pressure on the RBA to possibly lower rates as soon as its board meeting, most of those polled are anticipating more rate stability.
“With so much for the central bank to digest from the Brexit fall out and after an eight week federal election campaign which has proven to be inconclusive, it will be no surprise to see the RBA stay on hold in July,” he said.
“It's only two months since the RBA cut the cash rate to its historical low and they still have some room to move on rates going forward.”
iBuyNew survey results: 
Do you think the Reserve Bank will take any action on official rates again this year?
Interest rates will remain on hold                      66 percent
Interest rates will increase                                11 percent
Interest rates will decrease                               23 percent
 
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