Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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ING, the fifth-biggest home loan lender in Australia, has lifted variable interest rates for all customers by 0.15 percentage points.
The hike will affect more than 100,000 borrowers from February 7, coming after ING also lifted variable rates on investment home loans by 0.15 percentage points in September and for owner-occupiers in July, by 0.1 percentage points. 
For owner-occupier borrowers paying principal and interest, the advertised rate will rise from 3.78 percent to 3.93 percent.
Those with a $300,000 30-year mortgage, face an increase from $1394 to $1420 a month.
A spokeswoman for the bank said: “We review our rates regularly and occasionally we need to increase them to ensure we can adjust to market changes while continuing to be best placed to provide our customers with simple, effective banking products.”
Sally Tindall, a spokeswoman for financial services broker RateCity, said ING’s rate hike was “disappointing” for customers.
The Reserve Bank board meets on Tuesday when it is expected to keep the cash rate on hold at 1.5 per cent.
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

ING raises rates again

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NAB has caved to funding pressures and hiked home loan rates just months after they said they were keeping their variables rates on hold.
NAB chief Andrew Thorburn said on September 10, “we are listening and acting differently”.
“We need to rebuild the trust of our customers, and by holding our NAB standard variable rate longer, we help our customers for longer,” Mr Thorburn he stated.
NAB is lifting rates by 0.12 per cent for owner occupiers paying principal and interest, and 0.16 per cent for investors and interest only customers, effective 31 January 2019.
The average NAB customer on a discounted variable rate will now pay $25 extra per month, almost $300 annually.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20rate%20hikes%202.JPG" alt="">
(Source: RateCity.com.au)
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said, “NAB tried to put their customers first, but it appears profit has won out in the end."
“NAB’s previous decision to keep rates on hold was designed to win back the trust of their customers. It was also a play to get new customers in the door."
“The strategy appears to have worked. In October 2018, NAB surpassed ANZ in terms of home loan market share. They now have the third largest home loan book, according to APRA data."
“Already this year we’ve seen BoQ and Virgin Money hike rates due to cost of funding pressures. Now that NAB has hiked as well, others are likely to follow in its shadow,” she concluded.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20rate%20hikes.JPG" alt="">
(Source: RateCity.com.au)
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NAB hikes variable rates after saying they wouldn't less than 20 weeks ago

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Home loan lender, Virgin Money has increased variable interest rates for all existing principal and interest (P&amp;I) and interest only (IO) home loans by 20 basis points.
Experts predict this trend will continue in 2019 across many lenders.
The group said the majority of standard variable rates for new home loan applications will remain unchanged, with only a few set to increase.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
Virgin Money has also announced it is reducing fixed rates by between 5bps and 10bps for the following products:
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<li>Two and three year fixed rates for owner occupier principal and interest loans over $300,000 with an LVR of 90% and under; and</li>
<li>Two and three year fixed rates for investment interest only loans with an LVR of 90% and under.</li>
</ul>
Virgin Money’s general manager, lending, cards &amp; deposits, Johnny Lockwood, said, “We have absorbed higher funding costs for the last twelve months in order to delay the impact for our home loan customers. Unfortunately, funding costs remain high and are likely to remain elevated into the foreseeable future."
The interest rate changes are effective Friday, 11 January 2019.
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said Virgin Money’s decision to pass these costs onto customers was becoming a trend.
“Virgin was a notable exception in the out-of-cycle rate hikes that happened mid last year.
“As the cost of funding continues to plague Australian lenders, today’s move is likely to be the next step towards a landslide of rate hikes.
“Virgin has still managed to keep their foot in the low rate market by only hiking their lowest rate product by 0.05 per cent for new customers.
“That way they can still offer a rate 3.69 per cent for people looking to bring new business in the door,” she said.
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Lender Virgin Money announces 20 bps home loan rate hikes

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The Bank of Queensland has become the first bank to officially hike home loan rates out of cycle in 2019.
The decision affects a range of BOQ variable rate loans including their Economy Variable Home Loan which is increasing by 0.11 per cent for both new and existing customers.
Other loans are increasing by up to 0.18 per cent, effective from January 11th.
That increases the price of monthly repayments on a $500,000 dollar loan by $32 and over the life of the loan it will cost an additional $11,369
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said the bank has cited cost of funding pressures and intense competition in term deposits as the reasons for the hike.
“These cost of funding pressures are affecting most banks so it’s likely we’ll see other lenders follow suit in 2019,” she said"
“A lot of household budgets are feeling the pinch after Christmas. While most families will be able to absorb this hike, some may struggle to come up with the extra cash,” she concluded.
Bank of Queensland is the ninth largest mortgage lender in Australia, according to APRA.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/BOQ%20hike.JPG" alt="">
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Bank of Queensland hikes home loan rates for 2019

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The NAB has scrapped its forecast for two late 2019 rate cuts.
It now predicts no change until late 2020.
"We have delayed our expectation for the first RBA increase in the cash rate to the second half of 2020," Alan Oster, its chief economist said today.
"While output growth has been largely as expected over the 2018, wages pressure remains weak and hence inflationary pressure has remained low, with the core measures continuing to track below the RBA’s target band.
"We expect that will continue through all of 2019.
"Our forecasts see a moderation in growth back to potential of around 2.3 to 2.5% and unemployment falling a little further to 4.75% and then remaining at that level.
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"Falling house prices suggest a bigger impact on housing construction than previously incorporated and additional concerns about the consumer, though low rates and unemployment are important offsets.
"The past year, despite growth being stronger than expected, the RBA has overall proven more relaxed about current policy settings than we expected – largely as wage growth failed to lift significantly on the stronger growth outcomes - and we don’t see that changing any time soon.
"The Bank will be looking very carefully at the extent of the slowing in house prices – and in particular that the adjustment remains orderly.
"We can see the case for a forward-looking central bank beginning to very moderately start increasingly rates from the second half of 2020.
"As always the exact timing will be data dependent – with a lift in both wages growth and the inflation forecast particularly important in this regard."
It noted that markets have become very concerned and are now toying with the possibility of the risk of an interest rate cut in the next 6-9 months.
"While that is a possibility we would not rate it as more than a 30% probability.
"Indeed the rate cut view underplays the strength currently evident and likely to remain elsewhere in the economy."
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“While falling house prices have garnered much media attention of late, businesses do not yet suggest they are having a material impact," Oster said.
"Falling house prices in themselves may have a ‘wealth effect’ on households but given the prior large run up the impact of the declines to date is unclear. 
"Also lower turnover of house sales and less housing construction activity is likely to have additional negative impacts on both the consumer and house building” Mr Oster said.
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Based on recent momentum NAB now expect house prices to fall further than previously forecast over the next two years.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/12/12/NAB-dwelling.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/12/NAB-dwelling.jpg" alt="">
But its expects the decline to be orderly, with prices still remaining well up on 4 years ago. 
"We now expect peak-to-trough declines of around 15% in both Sydney and Melbourne. 
"We expect more moderate outcomes in the other capitals. 
"The decline in house prices to date represents a significant correction compared with recent housing cycles.
"It is unusual for prices to decline while the unemployment rate is falling and interest rates are low and relatively stable. 
"We believe that these declines have been driven by a number of factors including tighter credit, investor price expectations (which also see lower demand for credit) and weaker foreign demand. 
"It is also likely that with house prices having significantly outpaced the growth in household incomes overs recent years, there is some adjustment occurring to restore this balance," Oster said.
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NAB scraps its two 2019 rate hike prediction - nothing until late 2020 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
GDP rose by just 0.3% in the September quarter and this saw annual growth slow to 2.8% year on year.
This was well below market (and RBA) expectations for growth around 3.4% year on year.
To some degree the slowdown in the September quarter reflects payback after two surprisingly strong quarters. But it also highlights the uncertainty around consumer spending as house prices slide and the ongoing patchiness of business investment.
We still see the risk of a recession in Australia as being low, but the rising list of downside risks to growth also mean that growth is likely to be constrained at around 2.5-3% over the year ahead as opposed to achieving the RBA’s expectation for growth “to average around 3.5%”. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/5/real-GDP.jpg" alt="">
The main points from the September quarter GDP data and associated outlooks are as follows:
- Consumer spending slowed to just 0.3% quarter on quarter or 2.5% year on year. Looking forward, apart from quarterly volatility, consumer spending is likely to remain under pressure. Yes employment growth has been strong but this is likely to slow, wages growth is likely to remain weak (with average earnings up just 0.2%qoq or 1.2%yoy in the September quarter) and households are unlikely to have the confidence to run down their saving further in the face of declining home values. (While the household saving rate was revised up its still just 2.4% which is down from around 9% in 2011 and more than a 10 year low). Likely fresh tax cuts next year might help but its doubtful they will be enough.
- Housing investment rose 1%qoq and contributed 0.1 percentage points to growth. But while there is still a decent pipeline of work yet to be finished, housing investment will likely slow as the downtrend in building approvals flows through. This in turn will act as a drag on consumer spending via slower demand for household goods.
- Underlying business investment (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) fell 1.9%qoq and detracted 0.2 percentage points from growth. Mining investment is continuing to fall but at least it’s getting near the bottom and the outlook for non-mining investment has improved.
 - Underlying government spending (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) rose 1.5%qoq and contributed 0.4 percentage points to growth, with the infrastructure spending boom continuing. Public sPending is likely to make a continuing solid contribution to growth over the next year.
 - Inventories detracted 0.3 percentage points from growth.
 - Net exports made a 0.3 percentage point contribution to growth. The outlook for export growth is still positive thanks to resource exports and as service exports like tourism and education continue to grow. But the contribution to growth is likely to slow going forward and is at risk if the US trade war with China is not resolved next year.
- Inflation pressures and wages are still subdued. Inflation as measured by the private final consumption deflator was just 0.4%qoq or 1.6%yoy. Average compensation per employee was up by just 0.2%qoq or 1.2%yoy. And real unit wages costs are falling at the rate of 1.5%yoy. 
Implications
The Australian economy continues to grow but its slowed back to a subpar pace after a brief spurt. A bottoming in mining investment, improving non-mining investment, strong infrastructure spending and strong export earnings should support growth going forward but are likely to be offset by the downturn in housing construction and house prices weighing on consumer spending. As such growth is likely to be stuck around 2.5-3% over the year ahead.
Given the combination of falling house prices, tightening credit conditions and constrained growth which will keep wages growth weak and inflation below target we are changing our view on the RBA from being one of rates on hold out to second half of 2020 to now seeing the next move being a rate cut.
However, with the RBA still seeing the next move as being up it will take them a while to change their thinking so we don’t see rates being cut until second half next year. When it does start cutting the RBA will likely stick to 0.25% increments and since rate moves are a bit like cockroaches there is likely to be more than one. This in turn will ultimately weigh on the Australian dollar.
SHANE OLIVER is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.
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RBA to cut rates second half of next year: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
This month’s RBA Board meeting saw interest rates left on hold for the 25th meeting in a row.
While there were no surprises on rates the RBA’s growth expectations have surprisingly moved higher seeing GDP growth of 3.5% this year and next (which is up by around 0.25% compared to its previous forecasts) and it now sees unemployment falling to around 4.75% in 2020 (which is down by around 0.25%) and it sees inflation moving above its previous forecast of 2.25% in 2020. 
While some upwards revisions to growth forecasts and downwards revisions to unemployment forecasts were justified by recently released data our assessment is that the RBA is underestimating the threat posed by slowing growth in China, tightening credit conditions and a negative wealth effect as house prices continue to fall, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where we anticipate a top to bottom fall of 20% stretching out to 2020.
As a result, in contrast to the RBA we see growth slowing to around 2.5-3% through 2019 as opposed to the RBA’s expectation for 3.5% growth which in turn will result in higher unemployment and keep wages growth and inflation lower for longer than the RBA is allowing.
Right now the RBA likely feels comfortable in its assessment that while there is no case to change monetary policy at present that the next move on interest rates is more likely to be up than down. This also remains our base case, although we don’t see a rate hike until late 2020 at the earliest.
However, with the risks to growth around tighter credit, falling house prices, the associated drag on consumer spending and the risks around China our assessment is there is a rising risk that the next move on rates will be a cut. But that’s a second half 2019 story at the earliest because the RBA will need to see broader signs of softness to consider cutting interest rates and that will take time. So, there is no prospect of imminent RBA rate cuts “rescuing” the housing market.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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Rising risk the RBA's next rate move will be a cut: Shane Oliver

US Federal Reserve's continued rate hikes, what does that mean for Australia? Shane Oliver

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Commonwealth Bank and ANZ have hiked rates for their variable customers, higher than Westpac's rise last week.
CBA have increased their rates by 15 basis points percent, while ANZ have raised theirs by 0.16.
ANZ were first to crack, raising their rates earlier today. Just 20 minutes later, Commonwealth Bank, the nation's biggest lender, followed suit.
The move comes after Westpac were the first of the big four to <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-is-the-first-of-the-big-four-banks-to-hike-out-of-cycle">rate out of cycle. </a>
Westpac raised their basis points by 14 basis points.
NAB continues to be the only big four bank to hold out. 
Mozo director Kirsty Lamont said it's only a matter of time before NAB joins the fray.
“The latest interest rate hike from ANZ and the Commonwealth Banks comes as no surprise after Westpac opened the floodgates earlier," Lamont said.
"The big banks have been noticeably more strategic about the timing of their hikes this time around against the backdrop of the Banking Royal Commission. 
With spring property season now in full swing, Lamont says mortgage interest rate hikes by some of the nation’s biggest lenders are likely to have a flow-on effect on the property market.
“These rate hikes couldn’t come at a worse time for property prices. Sizeable price drops have already been recorded across some of Australia’s capital cities and as the cost of borrowing rises, prices are likely to fall even further.”
Now coming into the 25th month of no movement in the cash rate by the Reserve Bank, the latest cycle of rate hikes is likely to keep official rates rises at bay for at least another two years.
RateCity.com calculated the Commonwealth Bank and ANZ new costs based on the banks’ standard variable rates for an owner occupier paying principal and interest.
CBA
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/6/CBA-Figures.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/6/CBA-Figures.jpg" alt="">
 ANZ
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/6/ANZ-Figures.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/6/ANZ-Figures.jpg" alt=""> 
Source: <a href="http://ratecity.com.au/" target="_blank">RateCity.com.au</a>. 
RateCity research director Sally Tindall said today’s hikes show that when one big banks pulls the trigger, their counterparts aren’t far behind. 
“CBA and ANZ’s decision to hike rates hot on the heels of Westpac was a predicable step in what is becoming a well-worn routine," Tindall said.
“In fact, hiking on the same day means they can shoulder the backlash together.
“What this rate hike means is that the vast majority of variable rate home owners will now be shelling out more on their mortgage each month.
“NAB would do well to break free of tradition and find a different way to wear the additional expense,” she said.
“While Australia’s big banks might move like a flock of sheep it doesn’t mean their customers have to.
“If you live in your own home and own at least 20 percent of it, start shopping around – you’ll be surprised at what rates are on offer.
“Plenty of lenders are ready and waiting to take on your business with rates as low as 3.44 percent,” she said.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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CBA and ANZ hike variable home loan rates

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Property buyers can save big amounts of money if they shop around for the lowest variable interest rate home loan, a new analysis of rates has revealed. 
The Australian Financial Review says a property buyer shopping around for a $1 million home loan with a 20 percent deposit can save more than $6,800 in annual repayments by choosing the cheapest variable rate. 
They suggests a $1 million owner-occupier borrower has nearly 680 fixed and more than 340 variable interest rates to choose from.
Analysis by Canstar found that CBA's wealth package standard variable rate for a principal and interest loan of 4.52 per cent is more than 100 basis points higher than Easy Street Financial Services rate of 3.49 per cent, or about $569 extra in monthly payments.
Commonwealth Bank is the most expensive lender, while Westpac closed the gap when they <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-is-the-first-of-the-big-four-banks-to-hike-out-of-cycle">hiked their rates out of cycle last week.</a>
Adelaide Bank and Suncorp followed, raising their rates by up to 40 basis points.
Suncorp, Australia’s sixth largest lender, lifted its variable rates for the second time in less than six months.
The changes at Suncorp will see all variable rate home loans increase 0.17% p.a. and small business loans increase 0.10% p.a, effective 14 September.
This follows on from its 28 March rate hike of up to 0.12%.
Suncorp Banking &amp; Wealth CEO David Carter said the decision to increase rates was based on the sustained increase in funding costs.
RateCity research director Sally Tindall said Adelaide Bank interest-only variable customers will be bruised by the fact their bank has delivered them one of the biggest out of cycle hikes so far.
“The message for Australian mortgage holders is now clear: Be prepared to shell out extra for your home loan or consider refinancing.
“Despite the hikes, banks are desperate to get new business in the door, throwing rock-bottom rates on the table, but only for new customers."
Tindall added it was best to "own at least 20 per cent of your home."
 
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