A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Rather than concentrating landscaping in a single resident area, the plans integrate planting across the building. Mature trees at the Cordeaux Street corner will be retained, with communal landscaped open space proposed at ground and upper levels alongside deep-soil planting and increased tree canopy coverage.

The building will have two residential entries, one from each street frontage, feeding into a central core with three lifts. Vehicle access is consolidated separately, with the basement entry positioned at the lower part of the site.

Doroch's design report shows 101 of the 139 apartments, or 72.6 per cent, receiving more than two hours of solar access, while 84 apartments achieve natural cross-ventilation. Twenty-eight apartments will incorporate Liveable Housing Australia Silver-level provisions, and every habitable room is designed with a window in an external wall.

The 2016 approval it will replace has never been built, leaving the corner of Cordeaux and Moore-Oxley streets as one of the more prominent unrealised sites in a city centre now being pushed toward higher-density renewal.

Joel Robinson

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Interest Rates

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ING, the fifth-biggest home loan lender in Australia, has lifted variable interest rates for all customers by 0.15 percentage points.
The hike will affect more than 100,000 borrowers from February 7, coming after ING also lifted variable rates on investment home loans by 0.15 percentage points in September and for owner-occupiers in July, by 0.1 percentage points. 
For owner-occupier borrowers paying principal and interest, the advertised rate will rise from 3.78 percent to 3.93 percent.
Those with a $300,000 30-year mortgage, face an increase from $1394 to $1420 a month.
A spokeswoman for the bank said: “We review our rates regularly and occasionally we need to increase them to ensure we can adjust to market changes while continuing to be best placed to provide our customers with simple, effective banking products.”
Sally Tindall, a spokeswoman for financial services broker RateCity, said ING’s rate hike was “disappointing” for customers.
The Reserve Bank board meets on Tuesday when it is expected to keep the cash rate on hold at 1.5 per cent.
 
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ING raises rates again

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NAB has caved to funding pressures and hiked home loan rates just months after they said they were keeping their variables rates on hold.
NAB chief Andrew Thorburn said on September 10, “we are listening and acting differently”.
“We need to rebuild the trust of our customers, and by holding our NAB standard variable rate longer, we help our customers for longer,” Mr Thorburn he stated.
NAB is lifting rates by 0.12 per cent for owner occupiers paying principal and interest, and 0.16 per cent for investors and interest only customers, effective 31 January 2019.
The average NAB customer on a discounted variable rate will now pay $25 extra per month, almost $300 annually.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20rate%20hikes%202.JPG" alt="">
(Source: RateCity.com.au)
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said, “NAB tried to put their customers first, but it appears profit has won out in the end."
“NAB’s previous decision to keep rates on hold was designed to win back the trust of their customers. It was also a play to get new customers in the door."
“The strategy appears to have worked. In October 2018, NAB surpassed ANZ in terms of home loan market share. They now have the third largest home loan book, according to APRA data."
“Already this year we’ve seen BoQ and Virgin Money hike rates due to cost of funding pressures. Now that NAB has hiked as well, others are likely to follow in its shadow,” she concluded.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20rate%20hikes.JPG" alt="">
(Source: RateCity.com.au)
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NAB hikes variable rates after saying they wouldn't less than 20 weeks ago

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Home loan lender, Virgin Money has increased variable interest rates for all existing principal and interest (P&amp;I) and interest only (IO) home loans by 20 basis points.
Experts predict this trend will continue in 2019 across many lenders.
The group said the majority of standard variable rates for new home loan applications will remain unchanged, with only a few set to increase.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
Virgin Money has also announced it is reducing fixed rates by between 5bps and 10bps for the following products:
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<li>Two and three year fixed rates for owner occupier principal and interest loans over $300,000 with an LVR of 90% and under; and</li>
<li>Two and three year fixed rates for investment interest only loans with an LVR of 90% and under.</li>
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Virgin Money’s general manager, lending, cards &amp; deposits, Johnny Lockwood, said, “We have absorbed higher funding costs for the last twelve months in order to delay the impact for our home loan customers. Unfortunately, funding costs remain high and are likely to remain elevated into the foreseeable future."
The interest rate changes are effective Friday, 11 January 2019.
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said Virgin Money’s decision to pass these costs onto customers was becoming a trend.
“Virgin was a notable exception in the out-of-cycle rate hikes that happened mid last year.
“As the cost of funding continues to plague Australian lenders, today’s move is likely to be the next step towards a landslide of rate hikes.
“Virgin has still managed to keep their foot in the low rate market by only hiking their lowest rate product by 0.05 per cent for new customers.
“That way they can still offer a rate 3.69 per cent for people looking to bring new business in the door,” she said.
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Lender Virgin Money announces 20 bps home loan rate hikes

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The Bank of Queensland has become the first bank to officially hike home loan rates out of cycle in 2019.
The decision affects a range of BOQ variable rate loans including their Economy Variable Home Loan which is increasing by 0.11 per cent for both new and existing customers.
Other loans are increasing by up to 0.18 per cent, effective from January 11th.
That increases the price of monthly repayments on a $500,000 dollar loan by $32 and over the life of the loan it will cost an additional $11,369
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said the bank has cited cost of funding pressures and intense competition in term deposits as the reasons for the hike.
“These cost of funding pressures are affecting most banks so it’s likely we’ll see other lenders follow suit in 2019,” she said"
“A lot of household budgets are feeling the pinch after Christmas. While most families will be able to absorb this hike, some may struggle to come up with the extra cash,” she concluded.
Bank of Queensland is the ninth largest mortgage lender in Australia, according to APRA.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/BOQ%20hike.JPG" alt="">
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Bank of Queensland hikes home loan rates for 2019

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The NAB has scrapped its forecast for two late 2019 rate cuts.
It now predicts no change until late 2020.
"We have delayed our expectation for the first RBA increase in the cash rate to the second half of 2020," Alan Oster, its chief economist said today.
"While output growth has been largely as expected over the 2018, wages pressure remains weak and hence inflationary pressure has remained low, with the core measures continuing to track below the RBA’s target band.
"We expect that will continue through all of 2019.
"Our forecasts see a moderation in growth back to potential of around 2.3 to 2.5% and unemployment falling a little further to 4.75% and then remaining at that level.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/12/12/NAB4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/12/NAB4.jpg" alt="">
"Falling house prices suggest a bigger impact on housing construction than previously incorporated and additional concerns about the consumer, though low rates and unemployment are important offsets.
"The past year, despite growth being stronger than expected, the RBA has overall proven more relaxed about current policy settings than we expected – largely as wage growth failed to lift significantly on the stronger growth outcomes - and we don’t see that changing any time soon.
"The Bank will be looking very carefully at the extent of the slowing in house prices – and in particular that the adjustment remains orderly.
"We can see the case for a forward-looking central bank beginning to very moderately start increasingly rates from the second half of 2020.
"As always the exact timing will be data dependent – with a lift in both wages growth and the inflation forecast particularly important in this regard."
It noted that markets have become very concerned and are now toying with the possibility of the risk of an interest rate cut in the next 6-9 months.
"While that is a possibility we would not rate it as more than a 30% probability.
"Indeed the rate cut view underplays the strength currently evident and likely to remain elsewhere in the economy."
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“While falling house prices have garnered much media attention of late, businesses do not yet suggest they are having a material impact," Oster said.
"Falling house prices in themselves may have a ‘wealth effect’ on households but given the prior large run up the impact of the declines to date is unclear. 
"Also lower turnover of house sales and less housing construction activity is likely to have additional negative impacts on both the consumer and house building” Mr Oster said.
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Based on recent momentum NAB now expect house prices to fall further than previously forecast over the next two years.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/12/12/NAB-dwelling.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/12/NAB-dwelling.jpg" alt="">
But its expects the decline to be orderly, with prices still remaining well up on 4 years ago. 
"We now expect peak-to-trough declines of around 15% in both Sydney and Melbourne. 
"We expect more moderate outcomes in the other capitals. 
"The decline in house prices to date represents a significant correction compared with recent housing cycles.
"It is unusual for prices to decline while the unemployment rate is falling and interest rates are low and relatively stable. 
"We believe that these declines have been driven by a number of factors including tighter credit, investor price expectations (which also see lower demand for credit) and weaker foreign demand. 
"It is also likely that with house prices having significantly outpaced the growth in household incomes overs recent years, there is some adjustment occurring to restore this balance," Oster said.
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NAB scraps its two 2019 rate hike prediction - nothing until late 2020 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
GDP rose by just 0.3% in the September quarter and this saw annual growth slow to 2.8% year on year.
This was well below market (and RBA) expectations for growth around 3.4% year on year.
To some degree the slowdown in the September quarter reflects payback after two surprisingly strong quarters. But it also highlights the uncertainty around consumer spending as house prices slide and the ongoing patchiness of business investment.
We still see the risk of a recession in Australia as being low, but the rising list of downside risks to growth also mean that growth is likely to be constrained at around 2.5-3% over the year ahead as opposed to achieving the RBA’s expectation for growth “to average around 3.5%”. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/5/real-GDP.jpg" alt="">
The main points from the September quarter GDP data and associated outlooks are as follows:
- Consumer spending slowed to just 0.3% quarter on quarter or 2.5% year on year. Looking forward, apart from quarterly volatility, consumer spending is likely to remain under pressure. Yes employment growth has been strong but this is likely to slow, wages growth is likely to remain weak (with average earnings up just 0.2%qoq or 1.2%yoy in the September quarter) and households are unlikely to have the confidence to run down their saving further in the face of declining home values. (While the household saving rate was revised up its still just 2.4% which is down from around 9% in 2011 and more than a 10 year low). Likely fresh tax cuts next year might help but its doubtful they will be enough.
- Housing investment rose 1%qoq and contributed 0.1 percentage points to growth. But while there is still a decent pipeline of work yet to be finished, housing investment will likely slow as the downtrend in building approvals flows through. This in turn will act as a drag on consumer spending via slower demand for household goods.
- Underlying business investment (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) fell 1.9%qoq and detracted 0.2 percentage points from growth. Mining investment is continuing to fall but at least it’s getting near the bottom and the outlook for non-mining investment has improved.
 - Underlying government spending (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) rose 1.5%qoq and contributed 0.4 percentage points to growth, with the infrastructure spending boom continuing. Public sPending is likely to make a continuing solid contribution to growth over the next year.
 - Inventories detracted 0.3 percentage points from growth.
 - Net exports made a 0.3 percentage point contribution to growth. The outlook for export growth is still positive thanks to resource exports and as service exports like tourism and education continue to grow. But the contribution to growth is likely to slow going forward and is at risk if the US trade war with China is not resolved next year.
- Inflation pressures and wages are still subdued. Inflation as measured by the private final consumption deflator was just 0.4%qoq or 1.6%yoy. Average compensation per employee was up by just 0.2%qoq or 1.2%yoy. And real unit wages costs are falling at the rate of 1.5%yoy. 
Implications
The Australian economy continues to grow but its slowed back to a subpar pace after a brief spurt. A bottoming in mining investment, improving non-mining investment, strong infrastructure spending and strong export earnings should support growth going forward but are likely to be offset by the downturn in housing construction and house prices weighing on consumer spending. As such growth is likely to be stuck around 2.5-3% over the year ahead.
Given the combination of falling house prices, tightening credit conditions and constrained growth which will keep wages growth weak and inflation below target we are changing our view on the RBA from being one of rates on hold out to second half of 2020 to now seeing the next move being a rate cut.
However, with the RBA still seeing the next move as being up it will take them a while to change their thinking so we don’t see rates being cut until second half next year. When it does start cutting the RBA will likely stick to 0.25% increments and since rate moves are a bit like cockroaches there is likely to be more than one. This in turn will ultimately weigh on the Australian dollar.
SHANE OLIVER is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

RBA to cut rates second half of next year: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
This month’s RBA Board meeting saw interest rates left on hold for the 25th meeting in a row.
While there were no surprises on rates the RBA’s growth expectations have surprisingly moved higher seeing GDP growth of 3.5% this year and next (which is up by around 0.25% compared to its previous forecasts) and it now sees unemployment falling to around 4.75% in 2020 (which is down by around 0.25%) and it sees inflation moving above its previous forecast of 2.25% in 2020. 
While some upwards revisions to growth forecasts and downwards revisions to unemployment forecasts were justified by recently released data our assessment is that the RBA is underestimating the threat posed by slowing growth in China, tightening credit conditions and a negative wealth effect as house prices continue to fall, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where we anticipate a top to bottom fall of 20% stretching out to 2020.
As a result, in contrast to the RBA we see growth slowing to around 2.5-3% through 2019 as opposed to the RBA’s expectation for 3.5% growth which in turn will result in higher unemployment and keep wages growth and inflation lower for longer than the RBA is allowing.
Right now the RBA likely feels comfortable in its assessment that while there is no case to change monetary policy at present that the next move on interest rates is more likely to be up than down. This also remains our base case, although we don’t see a rate hike until late 2020 at the earliest.
However, with the risks to growth around tighter credit, falling house prices, the associated drag on consumer spending and the risks around China our assessment is there is a rising risk that the next move on rates will be a cut. But that’s a second half 2019 story at the earliest because the RBA will need to see broader signs of softness to consider cutting interest rates and that will take time. So, there is no prospect of imminent RBA rate cuts “rescuing” the housing market.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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Rising risk the RBA's next rate move will be a cut: Shane Oliver

US Federal Reserve's continued rate hikes, what does that mean for Australia? Shane Oliver

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Commonwealth Bank and ANZ have hiked rates for their variable customers, higher than Westpac's rise last week.
CBA have increased their rates by 15 basis points percent, while ANZ have raised theirs by 0.16.
ANZ were first to crack, raising their rates earlier today. Just 20 minutes later, Commonwealth Bank, the nation's biggest lender, followed suit.
The move comes after Westpac were the first of the big four to <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-is-the-first-of-the-big-four-banks-to-hike-out-of-cycle">rate out of cycle. </a>
Westpac raised their basis points by 14 basis points.
NAB continues to be the only big four bank to hold out. 
Mozo director Kirsty Lamont said it's only a matter of time before NAB joins the fray.
“The latest interest rate hike from ANZ and the Commonwealth Banks comes as no surprise after Westpac opened the floodgates earlier," Lamont said.
"The big banks have been noticeably more strategic about the timing of their hikes this time around against the backdrop of the Banking Royal Commission. 
With spring property season now in full swing, Lamont says mortgage interest rate hikes by some of the nation’s biggest lenders are likely to have a flow-on effect on the property market.
“These rate hikes couldn’t come at a worse time for property prices. Sizeable price drops have already been recorded across some of Australia’s capital cities and as the cost of borrowing rises, prices are likely to fall even further.”
Now coming into the 25th month of no movement in the cash rate by the Reserve Bank, the latest cycle of rate hikes is likely to keep official rates rises at bay for at least another two years.
RateCity.com calculated the Commonwealth Bank and ANZ new costs based on the banks’ standard variable rates for an owner occupier paying principal and interest.
CBA
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/6/CBA-Figures.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/6/CBA-Figures.jpg" alt="">
 ANZ
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/6/ANZ-Figures.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/6/ANZ-Figures.jpg" alt=""> 
Source: <a href="http://ratecity.com.au/" target="_blank">RateCity.com.au</a>. 
RateCity research director Sally Tindall said today’s hikes show that when one big banks pulls the trigger, their counterparts aren’t far behind. 
“CBA and ANZ’s decision to hike rates hot on the heels of Westpac was a predicable step in what is becoming a well-worn routine," Tindall said.
“In fact, hiking on the same day means they can shoulder the backlash together.
“What this rate hike means is that the vast majority of variable rate home owners will now be shelling out more on their mortgage each month.
“NAB would do well to break free of tradition and find a different way to wear the additional expense,” she said.
“While Australia’s big banks might move like a flock of sheep it doesn’t mean their customers have to.
“If you live in your own home and own at least 20 percent of it, start shopping around – you’ll be surprised at what rates are on offer.
“Plenty of lenders are ready and waiting to take on your business with rates as low as 3.44 percent,” she said.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

CBA and ANZ hike variable home loan rates

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Property buyers can save big amounts of money if they shop around for the lowest variable interest rate home loan, a new analysis of rates has revealed. 
The Australian Financial Review says a property buyer shopping around for a $1 million home loan with a 20 percent deposit can save more than $6,800 in annual repayments by choosing the cheapest variable rate. 
They suggests a $1 million owner-occupier borrower has nearly 680 fixed and more than 340 variable interest rates to choose from.
Analysis by Canstar found that CBA's wealth package standard variable rate for a principal and interest loan of 4.52 per cent is more than 100 basis points higher than Easy Street Financial Services rate of 3.49 per cent, or about $569 extra in monthly payments.
Commonwealth Bank is the most expensive lender, while Westpac closed the gap when they <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-is-the-first-of-the-big-four-banks-to-hike-out-of-cycle">hiked their rates out of cycle last week.</a>
Adelaide Bank and Suncorp followed, raising their rates by up to 40 basis points.
Suncorp, Australia’s sixth largest lender, lifted its variable rates for the second time in less than six months.
The changes at Suncorp will see all variable rate home loans increase 0.17% p.a. and small business loans increase 0.10% p.a, effective 14 September.
This follows on from its 28 March rate hike of up to 0.12%.
Suncorp Banking &amp; Wealth CEO David Carter said the decision to increase rates was based on the sustained increase in funding costs.
RateCity research director Sally Tindall said Adelaide Bank interest-only variable customers will be bruised by the fact their bank has delivered them one of the biggest out of cycle hikes so far.
“The message for Australian mortgage holders is now clear: Be prepared to shell out extra for your home loan or consider refinancing.
“Despite the hikes, banks are desperate to get new business in the door, throwing rock-bottom rates on the table, but only for new customers."
Tindall added it was best to "own at least 20 per cent of your home."
 
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