Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Housing Market

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The latest RBA minutes have noted recent data continued to suggest that there had been a build-up of risks associated with the housing market.
"In some markets, conditions had been strong and prices were rising briskly, although in other markets prices were declining.
"In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments was scheduled to come on stream over the next few years.
"Growth in rents had been the slowest for two decades. Borrowing for housing by investors had picked up over recent months and growth in household debt had been faster than that in household income.
"Supervisory measures had contributed to some strengthening of lending standards."
The bank had recently announced its concerns for the apartment market, warning a flood of new apartments could come onto the market in certain areas could push down prices causing heavy losses for developers.
Last week bank research noted the rate of housing market turnover, or transactions, is on an “unusual decline” with a sharp rise in off-the-plan sales of apartments — which are difficult to measure in a timely manner — likely to be a factor.
According to the central bank, other potential reasons could be lower rates of home ownership, particularly for younger households, and migration trends.
A fall in housing market transactions directly affects the economy as it hurts tax revenue - which made up about 40 per cent of total state tax revenue in 2014/15, besides impacting the creation of more jobs and related occupations such as real estate agents, lawyers and the finance industry, the RBA noted last week.
The RBA’s latest bulletin says the decline in the national housing turnover rate in recent years has come despite “the strength in a number of housing market indicators such as national housing price growth, which has historically been positively correlated with the turnover rate”. 
It says part of the recent weakness could from measurement issues arising from the increased share of apartments in new housing construction. 
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

RBA notes build-up of risks in housing market

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Back in 2011 Gladstone property was all the rage.
Unfortunately the predicted housing boom was based upon temporary factors, including a resources construction boom which finally an almighty peak in Queensland in the first quarter of 2013. 
As construction turned to production, the housing boom turned to dust, despite unfounded claims that the new residential development could never lead to oversupply.
Over the last three years alone asking rents for houses have collapsed by 46 percent. 
Units have fared even worse with asking rents down by 56 percent (for landlords lucky enough to find a tenant). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/21/ENG.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/21/ENG.jpg" alt=""> 
Source: SQM Research
Dwelling prices have followed a similar pattern, albeit in a marginally less painful trajectory, with unit prices down by 40 per cent over the past three years. 
It looks as though the market may finally be set to move into equilibrium as the glut of supply is absorbed and the LNG export boom ramps up. 
Vacancy rates in Gladstone have now been falling for 9 months, while rents and prices seem to be consolidating or forming some kind of bottom. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/21/G2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/21/G2.jpg" alt="">
Source: SQM Research
It's all too little and too late for those that bought off the plan at the heady market peak, but it looks likely that the worst is over for now. 
Even engineering construction activity began rising again in Queensland from the first quarter of calendar year 2016, but this time around resources projects have not been the driver, although the Adani project is still potentially lurking in the wings. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/21/G1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/21/G1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/21/G1.jpg" alt=""></a>
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Gladstone nearing the property bottom

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The number of Australians who consider property as the best place to invest their savings has fallen to its lowest level in more than 40 years, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.
The latest survey found confidence has fallen since September 2015 to an all time low of 11.6 percent.
In a breakfast briefing this week Michelle Bullock from the Reserve Bank said the worry is what happened in the United States - a big downturn in housing prices and negative equity
"Hopefully what we've done with strengthening the resilience of the households and the banks means they can withstand that sort of thing if it happened," she said.
The Age reported Bill Evans, Westpac chief economist said the result showed a clear increase in risk aversion.
"Consumers are saying: yes we expect [real estate] prices to rise, but we are a little cautious," he said.
"There is no doubt there is nervousness about the sustainability of the prices."
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Confidence in property investment falls to lowest level in 40 years

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It was only a matter of time before some property punters would cash in simply because property data is now pointing to a significant price correction.
The latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) data has inflation adjusted wage growth sitting most uncomfortably around zero which spells disaster for households carrying excessively large mortgages. Time to cool the heels-cash in, and lock oneself into a lease for twenty-four months or so and watch what happens as there are some worrying signs out there, although some areas will see minimal change and others massive.
The RBA also announced this week that it was concerned how the financial system would handle a significant price correction in the apartment investment sector. Between now and June 30 there are a staggering 15,000 apartments settling so we are approximately 90 days away from knowing if the investment apartment sector is about to collapse.
With the clear majority of these sales to Chinese investors we will soon find out if they can raise the funds to settle without the assistance of the major banks who have walked away from overseas investors.
Li Ming, a co-director of Aussiehome, recently announced that “the off-the-plan apartment markets is now the worst I have seen in the last 10 years.” He then went on to say that almost 80 percent of Chinese buyers can’t settle on the Australian apartments they have purchased and now would prefer to walk away. In the clear majority of cases, these properties are now worth considerably less than when they were an artist’s impression on a glossy brochure.
Property is a confidence game so when we start reading negativity we also start seeing an immediate response in consumer sentiment. This would almost certainly explain why the RBA is now sounding clear warnings directed at the investment apartment markets. This usually only happens when their internal research is discovering anomalies in the markets so immediately they start sounding the fog-horns.
I well remember remarking back in December 2008 when Wayne “The World’s Best Treasurer” Swan strangely increased the off-the-plan ratio from 50 percent to 100 percent that this would not have a happy ending. Who knows I may well be wrong although I still stand by my predictions where nearly nine years on we are now starting to see the result.
This also coincides with Sydney house prices presently posting the highest annual growth in 14 years. We all know (well most anyway) that for property markets to change direction you need a trigger. Should Li Ming be correct about the apartment investment market this will have a significant impact on this newly created apartment investment market right across the eastern seaboard.
If this does happen our governments and banks need to play this intelligently by riding the storm out by becoming landlords. In the past, they have panicked (especially the banks) by engaging in massive sell offs which cause more problems. What should be happening now is the intelligent preparation of worst case scenarios where lenders should be looking at first home buyers to create lease and buy back packages.
Having said that the first problem with housing affordability is the rental markets despite governments going down the wrong track of building more homes. If rents are flat and even decreasing as was the case 15 years ago, then the pressure on tenants is removed as it then becomes cheaper to rent over owning. What we forget are the many solid arguments back then that clearly showed renting was a smarter option than buying – how quickly we forget.
Obviously with so many brand-new apartments set to hit the rental markets rents will fall – just imagine what would happen if the NSW government forced the 200,000 plus permanently vacant Sydney apartments onto the market?
The Victorian government has acted on this with the introduction of the Vacant Residential Property Tax (VRPT) which will address the permanently vacant properties across inner and middle suburbs of Melbourne. The VRPT will be levied at 1 percent, multiplied by the capital improved value of the taxable property. A property worth $650,000 would then be charged a VRPT of $6,500 which in my opinion is too low because the clear majority are wealthy which is why they are not interested in renting the property out in the first place.
The VRPT should be between 3 and 5 percent although the Victorian government knows only too well that a 1 percent VRPT won’t have a significant impact on overseas buyers which is why they introduced it.
On the flip side, the NSW government is looking to further increase stamp duty for foreign buyers which would be an absolute disaster – just ask the Canadian government who did precisely this and then managed to collapse their investment markets by upwards of 30 percent.
I don’t worry too much about the property markets, I worry more about how our elected politicians will respond to these challenges. Generation Rent should be watching these markets very closely.
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

The big property shift is fast heading to a sell recommendation: Robert Simeon

Australian housing market turnover - the RBA's nine chart insights

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<div class="page" title="Page 1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 0.1 percent in March from 99.6 in February to 99.7 in March. 
The Index appears to be stabilising around that point where optimists and pessimists are around equal in number. The encouraging 2.3 percent lift we saw in the Index in February has been sustained in March.
In this survey we ask respondents for information on the news items that have affected their views and whether the news has been well received. This gives us an assessment of what may be on the minds of respondents.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2010.51.27%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2010.51.27%20AM.png" alt="">
As we saw in December the two dominant news categories were ‘economic conditions’ (27.9 percent of respondents recalled news on this topic) and ‘budget and taxation’ (25.2 percent). On both counts respondents saw the news as less unfavourable than had been the case in December. In particular ‘economic conditions’ showed a marked improvement.
It is also interesting to note that overall awareness of ‘budget and taxation’ news is down significantly from a year ago when 37.1 percent of respondents recalled news on this topic. That difference can be largely attributed to a fall from 17.6 percent to 3.7 percent in those respondents recalling news on taxation.
Other well-recalled news items covered: employment (15.7 percent,  up from 11.1 percent in December); interest rates (15.6 percent); and international conditions (12.0 percent). Despite no move by the Reserve Bank over the intervening period news on interest rates was much more positively received while the pessimism around international conditions eased. Respondents, who regularly assess the news on employment as unfavourable, were somewhat more concerned in this survey.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations fell by 3.1 percent in March pushing the Index back to around the levels in December. Recall that lower readings on the index mean more consumers expect unemployment to fall in the year ahead. Our take on the index is that respondents’ assessments of the unemployment outlook have stabilised around a level which is consistent with spare capacity consistently available in the labour market with little prospect of that spare capacity actually clearing.
There was one quite significant movement within the components of the Index: the ‘Family finances compared to a year ago’ sub-index fell by 5.3 percent. This component is now at its lowest level since June 2014 when respondents were shaken by the May Budget announcement.
However on that occasion the overall Index was much lower than we see today, indicating that, currently respondents are particularly concerned about their own finances. News from the December quarter national accounts that wage incomes had fallen by 0.5 percent is indicative of the source of these concerns. That news, of course, complemented other recent reports that wages growth had fallen to a record low of 1.9 percent.
Other components of the Index are less newsworthy. The ‘family finances, next 12 months’ sub-index fell 0.2 percent, the ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index rose 1.6 percent; the ‘economic conditions, next 5 years’ sub-index rose 3.9 percent and the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index dipped 0.1%.
Housing sentiment lifted in March. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index rose by 7.0 percent. However that increase only recovered the 7.8 percent fall in February. The recovery was mainly attributed to a sharp turnaround in Victoria where the state government has recently announced a range of new measures including abolishing stamp duty for first home buyers.
Despite this, the national index still seems to be drifting lower having fallen by 4.9 percent over the last year. That compares with the 13 percent fall we saw over the previous year. The Index is still around 25 percent higher than the deep lows we saw in the 2007/08 period.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2010.52.35%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2010.52.35%20AM.png" alt="">
House price expectations continue to rise. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations rose by 2.2 percent to be 26.7 percent above the level of a year ago.
Every quarter we also ask respondents for their preference for their savings. This can provide us with any evidence that consumers are becoming more or less risk averse. There was a notable shift in March with the proportion nominating ‘pay down debt’ jumping from 20.5 percent in December to 25.7 percent, and the proportion favouring real estate dropping to just 11.6 percent, a record low since we first started asking this question back in 1974. The moves indicate a clear increase in risk aversion.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on April 4. The Bank will decide to keep rates on hold. Even though income growth and inflation are too low and there remains ample spare capacity in the labour market (unemployment rate of 5.7 percent compared to a ‘full employment‘ rate of around 5 percent) the Bank has no flexibility to cut rates. The evidence is clear that the rate cuts the Bank embraced last year in the face of low inflation fuelled house  prices and household leverage. The Bank is concerned about possible excesses in the housing market.
Markets accept the view that rates will remain on hold in 2017 but are pricing in at least two hikes from the Bank next year. We expect that growth in the economy will slow in 2018 as the residential construction boom unwinds. As we saw in today’s report households are concerned about their finances, largely because of weak income growth. This concern is unlikely to fade in 2018 appropriately constraining household spending and discouraging investment. That is no environment for higher rates. Accordingly, we expect rates will remain on hold throughout 2018 as well. 
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Time to buy dwelling index rises 7 percent: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 4.4 percent in the past week from six-week highs.
The Performance of Construction index rose by 5.4 points to 53.1 in February. 
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<div class="column">To say that consumer confidence is somewhat fluky at present is probably an under-statement. In late February, consumer confidence was at six-week highs and up 7 percent over the year. A week later and confidence is back down, and almost 1 per cent lower than a year ago.</div>
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 Domestic politics, Donald Trump, petrol prices, interest rate expectations and a lower Australian dollar are all influencing consumer sentiment. It is a little surprising given that economic data and company earnings results have been very good, but confidence has presumably softened in the past week. It is hard to read much into it. Expect the sideways trend for confidence to continue. The construction gauge can be volatile. And that is understandable given that engineering and housing activity have tended to move in opposite directions in recent times. And clearly construction activity varies markedly from state to state. Still, it is encouraging that manufacturing and construction gauges are both above 50, signifying expansion.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-07%20at%2011.55.33%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-07%20at%2011.55.33%20AM.png" alt="">
What do the figures show?
Consumer sentiment
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 5.2 points (4.4 percent) to 113.9 in the week to March 5. Confidence is down 0.8 percent over the year but above the average of 113.3 since 2014. </div>
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 Only one component of the index rose in the latest week: <ul>
<li> The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +11 to +1;</li>
<li> The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +34 to +26;</li>
<li> Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from +5 to +6;</li>
<li> Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +7 to +6;</li>
<li> The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +40 to +31:</li>
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  The reading of inflation expectations two years ahead fell from 4.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent. But inflation expectations have now held above 4 per cent for the past 12 weeks.
Performance of Construction
Following four months of decline, the Ai Group/Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI®) lifted by 5.4 points to 53.1 in February. It was the highest Australian PCI® reading since mid-2016 (readings below 50 indicate contraction in activity, with the distance from 50 indicating the strength of the decrease).</div>
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 While apartment building activity contracted for a sixth consecutive month (down 0.4 points to 46.1), house building recorded a strong resurgence (up 10.7 points to 60.9 – its highest rate since June 2016).</div>
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 Stronger conditions were also evident in commercial (up 6.1 points to 53.6) and engineering construction (up 11.1 points to 53.9), with both sub-sectors lifting into positive territory after declines of five and four months respectively. Pressure from rising wages (up 2.8 points to 63.0) and input prices (up 10.5 points to 76.1) is partially being passed on, with the selling prices sub-index increasing slightly by 0.7 points to 56.0, but profit margins remain under pressure amid a highly competitive tender pricing environment. “
What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank. The Australian Industry Group and Housing Industry Association release the Performance of Construction Index (PCI) each month. The PCI is useful not just in showing how the construction sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank monitors consumer confidence but it is unlikely that it is taking away much of consequence at present. But the construction data was positive, adding to similar trends for other indicators on the economy.</div>
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 The Reserve Bank will maintain a “neutral stance”. It is still too early to talk of rate hikes.</div>
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<div class="column">Watch the inflationary trends in construction – especially home building. </div>
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Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
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Fluky winds for Aussie consumers: Craig James

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Houses in Canberra are on the decline with homes in Mackay, Townsville and Gladstone at the bottom of the market according to the March property clock from Herron Todd White.
Houses in Coffs Harbour, Newcastle and the NSW Central Coast are top the market. 
Apartments in Canberra are currently at the bottom of the market.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/5/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-05%20at%201.26.51%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/5/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-05%20at%201.26.51%20pm.jpg" alt="">
Property Observer found this four bedroom home,<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-act-amaroo-124752410" target="_blank"> 90 Burdekin Avenue, Amaroo</a>, (above) on the market with a price guide of $598,000.
Another four bedroom home, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-act-nicholls-124631274" target="_blank">6 Waine Place Nicholls</a>, (below) is on the market expecting offers over $769,000.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-07%20at%209.35.02%20AM.png" alt="">
 
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Canberra house market in decline: HTW's March 2017 property clock

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The Victorian government has come out with a package that encourages potential first home buyers to get into the market.
It has come up with a "HomesVic”, a pilot programme in which 400 people will get a chance to co-purchase a home with the government, which will take an equity share of up to 25 percent and get its money back (plus price growth) when the property is eventually sold. 
The programme is aimed at couples earning up to $95,000 a year and singles earning up to $75,000. 
The changes are likely to be welcomed given the growing number of people who are finding it more hard than ever to get into the housing market.
Treasurer Tim Pallas said that the changes are an "important step towards ensuring today's families and future generations will be able to afford somewhere to live".
The state government will also contribute $5 million to Buy Assist, a community-sector based shared equity scheme.
This is modelled, according to reports, on a scheme recommended to prime minister John Howard in 2003 but never adopted.
The $50 million pilot scheme, HomesVic, will target first home buyers who are able to meet regular mortgage repayments, but because of rising rental costs, haven’t been able to save a big enough deposit.
Under the scheme, to be introduced in January 2018, HomesVic will co-purchase up to 400 homes, taking an equity share of up to 25 percent in these properties.
It will be available for both new and existing homes.
By allowing homebuyers to purchase less than 100 percent of the property, they will require a smaller deposit and are able to enter the market sooner. 
Eligible applicants will include couples earning up to $95,000, and singles earning up to $75,000.  
Buyers will need to have a 5 percent deposit.
The pilot will be tested across the state, and when the properties are sold, HomesVic will recover its share of the equity.
To further improve buyers’ chances of owning their own home, the Labor Government will also contribute $5 million to a national, community sector, shared equity scheme, Buy Assist.
With similar goals to HomesVic, Buy Assist will help deliver an additional 100 shared equity homes and help low to medium income households get a foothold in the property market.
The Government is also set to give first home buyers priority in government-led urban renewal developments, with at least 10 percent of all properties allocated to first time buyers.
This approach will be used for the first time at the Arden development.
The plan to develop the 56 hectare site Arden, (pictured above) announced by the Labor Government last year, could be home to around 15,000 people. Under this policy 1,500 of those could be first home buyers.
The Government will also consult with first home buyers, industry and the community about the design and implementation of measures to support first home buyers in private developments, especially those close to jobs and transport.
Artist’s impression of Arden central above.
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Victoria government to co-own with first time home buyers in pilot project

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Quite surprising that nothing has been said when last Friday, the Australian government debt ticked just over $475 billion.
For the last twelve months, the government on average has been borrowing $6.35 billion each month, so what happens when they hit the debt ceiling of $500 billion? Will that then bring an end to Australia’s prized membership of the AAA – rated club?
Standard &amp; Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch have just 9 countries in the AAA club – Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland. Should our membership be revoked that would mean that borrowing costs would increase overnight, which is not a good sign for the Australian economy. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) currently estimates that Australian small businesses currently owe $13 billion in unpaid tax debts. Obviously, there is no impact on existing debt although when it comes time to refinance then that would be an entirely different story.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.03.18%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.03.18%20AM.png" alt="">
With the federal government recently weighing into the housing affordability debacle there are two things that I would immediately implement to critique our housing markets.
The ATO has taken over responsibility for being Australia’s biggest property manager so land banking must be the first point of call. It is estimated that Sydney now has well over 100,000 permanently vacant apartments so they should be rented out to ease the rental crisis. Look at the lost revenues the ATO is missing out on with these land banked properties, where the clear majority are owned by overseas investors. Land banking in Australia must be outlawed.
Reverse the ridiculous off-the-plan ratio back to 50 percent from 100 percent to overseas buyers. We are now going into the ninth year of 100 percent and the only clear impact we are seeing is that foreign investors have become a most dominant player. In 2016, Chinese developers acquired almost 40 percent of the Australian residential sites that were offered to the marketplace. All these properties are offered exclusively to Asia and these properties are not available for local buyers. Reducing the ratio back to 50 percent would have a big impact on housing affordability.
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.04.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.04.36%20AM.png" alt="">
A recent survey by Roy Morgan Research found that approximately 7 per cent of Australian mortgage holders have little or zero equity in their homes in the twelve months to October 2016. That would equate to approximately 300,000 properties across Australia. Western Australia has the highest number with 54,000, followed by South Australia with 27,000, Queensland with 63,000, Melbourne has 50,000, Victoria has 65,000, NSW has 73,000 and Sydney has 33,000. Tasmania came in with 5,000 – these are concerning numbers when you consider the east coast has enjoyed unprecedented capital appreciation.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.05.32%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.05.32%20AM.png" alt="">
Since 2009, Sydney home values have doubled and Melbourne have climbed 85 percent. In 2011, less than 10 percent of investors held multiple investment properties, according to Digital Finance Analytics. This has now grown to 16 percent nationally, and on the east coast multiple investment properties is now approximately 18 percent.
Really makes one wonder, just what data our elected politicians and policy makers are actually looking at or quite possibly, they don’t even understand this data?
The most recent data from CoreLogic shows that the rental yields in Sydney and Melbourne are on the decline. For Sydney, houses yield is 2.8 percent and units are 3.8 percent. In Melbourne, houses are 2.7 percent and units are 4.0 percent. It will be most interesting to see just how low these yields will go with all the new developments entering the market. It is quite clear that investors have been enjoying the unprecedented capital growth over rental yields in Sydney and Melbourne, although this is about to change.
With very few alternate investment opportunities, we don’t at this particular point in time expect to see investors retreating out of the market, although we do expect to see carnage in the CBD markets. This should not come as a great surprise as these markets have introduced thousands and thousands of new apartments, and many suburbs have constructed less than one hundred new apartments.
Whatever the case, if you like watching real estate machinations 2017 will keep you highly entertained.
To add to this, the Commonwealth Bank advised mortgage brokers this week, that from February 13, it will cease accepting refinancing applications for investment home loans. Will the other major lenders then follow suit?
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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