Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Housing Market

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Residential property price growth is expected to slow as the heat comes out of the Sydney and Melbourne markets, according to AMP Capital’s latest market update.
Meanwhile, the search for yields amid poor returns from cash and bank deposits is expected to continue to benefit unlisted commercial property and infrastructure, at least in the near term.
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver also noted that while Australian consumers remain sceptical about shares as the “wisest place for their savings” their interest in superannuation has picked up, likely in response to recent super reforms which allow for large one-off contributions before the financial year ends on June 30. 
Something similar was seen in a decade earlier in 2007, he said.
He also said that even amid the scepticism around real estate that has been around for more than a year now, prices haven’t stopped growing in Sydney and Melbourne’s property markets.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/AMPSNAPSHOT.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/AMPSNAPSHOT.png" alt="">
The recent strength in jobs data, consistent with forward-looking labour market indicators, along with solid business conditions partly offset other recent more negative data such as falling consumer confidence and poor wages growth. 
“The jobs data and the NAB survey support the RBA in leaving interest rates on hold for now,” Oliver said. 
“But given softer data for growth, consumer spending, housing construction, non-mining investment and wages growth, our view remains that there is more risk of another rate cut than a rate hike in the next 12 months or so. “
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Property prices expected to slow as heat comes out of market: AMP Capital

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GUEST OBSERVER
It is yet too soon to gauge the true impact of recent macro-prudential measures on the housing market, but recent reads on prices suggest the market could already be close to its peak.
According to CoreLogic’s hedonic price measure, property prices fell in May, including in the major boom cities of Sydney and Melbourne – prices fell for both detached houses and units, although the latter fell by more. Declines were not uniform, however, with dwelling prices rising in both Brisbane and Adelaide.
Mortgage lending has cooled only slightly, but is expected to be weighed down as lenders look to stem the flow of interest only loans (with the biggest impact likely to be seen in investor credit). Mortgage credit rose by a steady (albeit subdued) 0.5% m/m in April, as investor credit actually outpaced owner-occupied credit modestly.
Looming headwinds from prudential tightening, combined with rising housing supply, affordability constraints and modest wages growth (which looks set to continue), validate our expectation for the housing market to cool from here.
That said, while the risks have certainly compounded, we continue to expect an orderly conclusion to the long-running housing boom in major markets, with the profile also helped by additional policy announcements of late to support first home buyers.
Our national forecasts for houses in 2017 are 7.2 percent in 2017 and 4.3 percent in 2018. Unit prices are forecast to rise 6.8 percent in 2017, but will fall modestly in 2018 (-0.4 percent).
Forecasts for 2017 anticipate additional modest growth in coming months, suggesting a degree of downside risk.
Dwelling investment dropped by a greater than expected 4.4 percent in Q4, occurring despite a pipeline of construction projects that is close to record levels – although weather related disruptions may have contributed to the result.
However, it is possible that supply is being constrained by other factors, including deliberate delays by developers in response to rising settlement concerns. Capacity constraints and tighter credit availability are other possible explanations.
Declines were seen across both new and used dwellings (down 4 percent) and alterations &amp; additions (renovations, down 5.2 percent). Growth in dwelling investment over the year was also soft at -2.5 percent y/y.
New building approvals have come off from their highs, but have held steady at higher than expected levels in recent months.
That might suggest the housing construction boom has a little further to run (despite recent declines in dwelling investment), although our economic modelling still points to significant downside risks to the outlook. Overall, dwelling investment is expected to be flat in 2017 (revised down due to very weak Q1 outcome), before turning modestly negative (-0.4 percent and -2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively). 
Hints that housing prices are starting to peak will be welcome by the Reserve Bank who remain concerned about elevated household debt. While it is early days, this is consistent with our view that housing prices will slow from here, particularly given further tightening in credit growth as banks are forced to cut back on interest only loans. No rate hikes are likely however until mid- 2019.  
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/">here</a>.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Property market could already be close to its peak: Alan Oster

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/77402/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Investors have played an increasingly important role in the Australian housing market in recent years. Our new research shows the actual return rate for housing investors almost doubled a layman’s expectation. Experienced investors are taking advantage of the knowledge gap and might continue to price out other housing buyers. 
The sharp increase in investor credit in recent years could be partly attributed to the strong growth of housing prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. However, the reported capital gains might not have fully reflected investors’ actual returns as the impact of debt financing in property investment has been neglected. 
Since housing investors typically use large amounts of debt to fund their investment, using the return on equity (after adjusting for debt financing) more accurately reflects their actual return. 
In recent years, regulators such as the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and lenders have implemented measures to moderate the growth of investor lending. Despite these efforts, investors have come back into the housing market since the second half of 2016. 
Proportion of housing investment loans
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170523-8895-1g4m2hp.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170523-8895-1g4m2hp.png" alt="">
<div class="enlarge_hint">ABS, Housing Finance, Australia: February 2017</div>
 
<h2>Higher returns come with greater risk</h2>
Our research sampled properties in 14 suburbs across Sydney, using the Property Investors Alliance database. The results provide some empirical evidence to demonstrate the housing return on equity with debt financing is significantly higher, at an annual return of nearly 14 percent per year, than the housing return on property without debt financing of about 7 percent per year.
This could explain the increasing proportion of investment loans in the housing market. The knowledge of investors’ advantage should also be used to inform the ongoing debate about regulating investment housing loans to enhance housing affordability for first home buyers in particular.
It is important to highlight the effect of debt financing on decisions to invest in housing. The results clearly show the enhanced returns are likely to have an acute impact. 
At the same time, a higher risk level as a result of the use of debt financing has also been documented. This highlights that housing investors should closely manage their exposure to financial risk from using debt financing by using a prudential risk-management tool.
Returns and risk on housing portfolios: 2009-2015
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170511-21598-1gyjv43.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170511-21598-1gyjv43.png" alt="">
Author provided
<h2>Explaining the increased rate of return</h2>
We used an assumption of 20 percent equity to demonstrate the impact of debt financing, which is in line with the current deposit requirement from major banks. Here’s an example to demonstrate the effect of debt financing. 
Say an investor buys a house for A$1 million. The investor provides a 20 percent deposit ($200,000); therefore $800,000 was borrowed. The investor took an “interest-only” loan with an interest rate of 5 percent per year – so the interest cost is $40,000 per year. The investor also receives a net rental income of $30,000 in Year 1.
A year later, the investor decides to sell the property for $1.1 million (its value having increased by 10 percent over the year). The traditional performance analysis of property (without debt financing) would show the return on this housing investment is 13 percent: ($1,100,000-1,000,000+$30,000)/$1,000,000 = 13 percent. 
Given the housing investor used debt financing, 13 percent is not the actual return for the investor. The investor’s actual return on equity for the investor is 45 percent: ($300,000-$200,000)+($30,000-$40,000)/$200,000 = 45 percent. 
Property returns vs equity returns
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170520-12263-sf1nd0.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170520-12263-sf1nd0.png" alt="">
Author provided
<h2>Experienced investors exploit their advantage</h2>
Overall, the results suggest the actual return rate for housing investors is significantly higher than the layman might expect from the major housing index providers. 
The documented returns may not be applicable, however, to owner occupiers who are also using debt financing, via mortgages, to buy their property. There are two main reasons for this:
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owner occupiers mainly use their houses for their own residency purposes, so no rental income will be generated to offset the mortgage repayment; and
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housing investors are able to sell their properties whenever they want to realise gains in value, while owner occupiers do not have that flexibility.
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Importantly, experienced housing investors, in the current low interest rate environment, have realised the benefits of debt financing and taken advantage of the knowledge gap to exploit the higher returns available to them.
These findings also highlight the need for an innovative product to assist home buyers to enter the housing market.
Chyi Lin Lee is associate professor of Property, Western Sydney University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chyi-lin-lee-368009" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Investors exploiting returns on debt financing to muscle out home buyers

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GUEST OBSERVER
Two weeks following the budget, the topic of housing affordability is still not waning.
Australia and the world united last week to slam young real estate mogul, Tim Gurner, who claimed young Australians can’t afford to buy property because they are spending “$40 a day on smashed avocados” and “not working”. The story spread like wildfire nationally as well as globally with media outlets including TIME Magazine, Washington Post, and The LA Times picking up the story.
While sensationalised, the crux of the problem has still not been addressed.  
Recent research conducted by iBuildNew which surveyed Australian FHBs to examine how much an affordable house is considered to cost, what the biggest barriers to entry are, where and what housing alternatives were being considered, and other useful statistics and insights. The full findings can be found in the Appendix below.
About the super saver scheme
The Government will help Australians boost their savings for their first home by allowing them to build a deposit inside superannuation. These contributions, which are taxed at 15 per cent, along with deemed earnings, can be withdrawn for a deposit from 1 July, 2018.
While the 'First Home Super Savers Scheme' will provide some benefit to Australian FHBs, it needs to still be kept in perspective in terms of popularity among its target audience:
As an incentive to help FHB's save I really like the scheme, but am skeptical as to how effective this will be in terms of how many people will take this up.  
I suspect FHB's will not see the incentive as strong enough and have concerns their savings will be locked away until retirement if they can't ultimately save enough, property prices keep rising, or their personal circumstances change, which are all legitimate concerns. 
In theory however, if a FHB is on $80,000 pa and elects to salary sacrifice $1,000 per month into super for a deposit, within 2.5 years they will save the $30,000. Depending on their state, they should be eligible for the FHB grant of $10,000-$15,000 (let's say $15,000), so they then have $45,000 in total savings. An average off-the-plan house and land package across Australia is $440,000 and if you assume you need 20% of the total amount (worst case) to secure a loan from the bank, the FHB still needs to save or access another $43,000.  
This is in no way a slam dunk but may be possible if they already have some sort of additional savings or can access equity in their parent’s home, for example. However, with only just over 20 percent of FHB’s considering new home builds with most preferring established properties at much higher starting prices, this savings challenge is far more acute for most. Unfortunately, the numbers don’t lie, and while this initiative may create some savings discipline from the few that take it up, most FHB’s dream of owning their own home will still be out of reach.
Relevant statistics (per iBuildNew recent survey findings): 76 per cent of first home buyers can’t get into the property market because they can’t save the deposit or secure a loan.
Only 22 percent of FHBs are considering a new home build as their entry option to the property market, with 60 per cent preferring to buy established despite the significant price differential between the two options.
About retirees downsizing super exemptions 
In a bid to release more property to the market and help tackle housing affordability for Aussie first home buyers, Australians over 65 years of age will be able to contribute an additional $300,000 from the sale of their main residence (if they have owned it for 10 years) into their superfund at non-concessional rates.
Starting from July next year, this scheme was designed to encourage retirees to actively consider downsizing in an attempt to free up larger homes for younger families and FHBs. Downsizing to free up capital makes a lot of sense for the older generation as they often own their own home with significant equity, but may not have much super to live off.
I am is very skeptical about this initiative. He thinks this won't help first home buyers at all and is simply a strategy from the government to relieve pressure on pension entitlements:
Firstly retirees that have been in their home for more than 10 years generally live in homes that cost $1,000,000 or more, so creating new supply in this high-cost range won't help first home buyers at all. Any impact is likely to be at the upper end of the housing market, not in the sub $450,000 where most FHB’s consider affordable. This initiative in the short term actually has a negative impact on supply as some retirees that would have otherwise downsized in the next 6-12 months will now be holding off selling their house until this initiative takes effect in July 2018.
Secondly, and most importantly, we see this as being a strategy from the government to relieve pressure on pension entitlements. At the end of the day the country has an issue on how to fund pensions entitlements, so this would take some pressure off if retirees took it up. However, accountants will advise their clients to think very carefully about this as the principal place of residency is excluded from the net asset means test calculations when it comes to pension eligibility.
Many simply don’t want to leave what they know, but many won’t want to forgo the state pension in lieu of their super pension, so you really have to question what impact this will have on housing supply. Branding the retiree downsizing scheme as a housing affordability measure I find very strange, at least for FHB’s.
Relevant statistic (per iBuildNew recent survey findings): 63 pe cent of first home buyers believe an affordable house costs less than $450,000, 85 percent think it’s less than $600,000.
About the foreign owners rent levy
Overseas property investors who leave their houses unoccupied will face an annual charge to help encourage foreign owners to make their property available to rent to improve rental supply – or that’s the plan anyway. Predictions on empty properties put the number as high as 300,000 across the country, however Mr. Peterson believes the levy will do nothing to increase housing affordability:
The levy only starts from $5,000, so even the more expensive properties around Australia will only attract a $15,000 slap on the wrist. For the Chinese who are using this as a strategy to get money into a safe haven (often several million dollars), a small annual charge is unlikely to drive a change in behavior from these types of investors who are more concerned about capital preservation than realizing rental returns. Even if it does, all this would do is ensure more blue chip houses are available for rent, generally at rental rates that people who are looking for affordable housing, can't afford anyway.
I think this is bit of a cop out by the Government who are trying to blame foreign investors for the housing supply shortage and affordability, when in reality they are a minority group undertaking this activity, so they have missed the mark.
About the release of surplus government land
As part of the housing affordability package released in the budget announcement the government has earmarked 127 hectares of surplus land in Melbourne which could house up to 6,000 properties. They have also outlined similar measures for Western Sydney. It is initiatives like this that can make a real difference.
The release of government land is one of the few genuine measures announced in this year’s budget that will actually help the housing affordability challenge. It directly impacts supply of land, and that has a direct impact on price and affordability.
In my view this type of land should be made almost exclusively for first home buyers, with a double FHB grant available on the purchase of such land when committed as part of a house and land package. If the super saving scheme is going to have any real impact, it still needs to be coupled with a first home buyer grant if FHB’s are going to be any chance of saving sufficient deposit in the Melbourne and Sydney markets.
However, FHB’s need to look beyond the inner suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney, lift their eyes and explore some of the outer suburbs if they are serious about getting into the property market. A new build house and land package is typically 40% plus cheaper than an inner suburb established property, not to mention its brand new.
Relevant research (per iBuildNew recent survey findings): 64 percent of first home buyers are only prepared to look at properties within their suburb of choice or surrounding suburbs.
Only 22 percent of first home buyers are considering a new home build while 60 per cent are focused on buying an established home or townhouse.
76 percent of first home buyers can’t get into the property market because they can’t save the deposit or secure a loan.
Daniel Peterson is chief executive officer, iBuildNew, and can be contacted <a href="https://www.ibuildnew.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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iBuildNew rejects three key initiatives from the 2017 Budget first home buyer measures 

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Housing price growth in China’s tier-1 cities has slowed down slightly and the pace shows a passing of the baton from the centre to the regions, says Westpac’s latest China Property Update.
The 70-city house price update for the month of April highlights authorities’ tight management of the sector. 
Tier-1 city price growth continues to be reined in as price growth is sustained elsewhere. In April, the number of cities reporting price gains fell to 58 from 62 for new housing and to 61 from 64 for the established market. 
Both results are toward the upper end of the range seen over the past year, signalling price gains remain broad across the nation, said Westpac. Across the three tiers, the pace of annual price growth clearly shows a passing of the baton from the centre to the regions. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/westpac1.png" alt="">
Over the past year, annual price growth for new housing in tier-1 has decelerated from 31% per year a year ago to 14% year (17% year for established housing). 
“Whereas Shenzhen initially provided all of the impetus to this slowdown, now all of the tier-1 cities are experiencing decelerating price growth,” said report author Elliot Clarke.
However, Shenzhen has still (by far) seen the largest decline, from 62% year in April 2016 to 6% year currently. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/westpac2.png" alt=""> 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/westpac3.png" alt="">
Growth in Tier-2 also slowed down, though on a much more modest level. Growth fell from 12% year in November to 10% year for new builds, while it fell to 8% per year to 10% in October for the established market. 
In contrast, price growth for tier-3 cities has held up, with annual growth currently around 9% yr for new homes and 7%yr for existing. 
Westpac noted that around a year ago, annual growth for this sub-set of cities was just 2% yr. From the above price trends, it is best to conclude that the actions of authorities have spread investor activity more broadly rather than halting it outright. 
This is most obvious in the opposing price trends for tier-1 and tier-3 cities – the latter’s’ frequent geographic proximity to the former combined with rapidly improving transport infrastructure arguably sparking growing investor interest. 
While growth in housing starts is modest, developers continued strong appetite for land suggests they remain optimistic on the outlook for the sector. 
“That said, they are likely to manage the supply of new housing to match demand and see moderate price growth (which doesn’t raise the ire of authorities) sustained,” said Westpac’s note. 
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Housing price growth in China's cities edges down: Westpac 

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Increases in Sydney and Perth housing stock has so far failed to match population growth according to research from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) and the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC).
The research, titled Housing supply responsiveness in Australia: distribution, drivers and institutional settings, found increases in Perth and Sydney’s housing stock over the past ten years have been insufficient to match the increase in their growing populations, with supply-side barriers more acute in Sydney than Perth.
Professor Rachel Ong, Deputy Director of BCEC, said while national growth in Australia’s housing stock has kept pace with population growth over the last ten years, the picture is very different for some of our major capitals.
“We’d normally expect to see a trickle-down effect, where building higher-value homes leads to the opening up of lower-value homes for those on lower incomes," she said.
"Our research indicates this isn’t the case, meaning an increase in housing supply is not leading to better housing affordability.
“This indicates that a broader policy response is needed to address the structural impediments that weaken the 'trickle down' impact on new housing supply.
"There is a real need for targeted government intervention, including measures that improve financial incentives for developers to build at the lower end of the housing market.”
The report also found most new housing is concentrated in mid-to-high price market segments and the supply of units is more likely to be concentrated in job-rich areas." 
“A likely result of that will be shorter commuting time to work, which offers an important boost to productivity,” Professor Ong said.
Key findings of the report include:
<ul>
<li>An increase in the level of real housing prices by 1 percent produces an estimated 4.7 percent increase in new housing supply. Units with a 1 percent price increase yields a 3.9 percent increase in supply.</li>
<li>Structural impediments weaken the ‘trickling down’ of new housing supply from mid-to-high price segments to lower-value segments, where affordable housing is needed for those on low incomes.</li>
<li>Targeted government intervention is needed to ensure an adequate supply of affordable housing.</li>
<li>The supply of units appears to be higher (all else equal) in already developed areas. Therefore, measures that further promote the construction of units could prove an effective pathway to easing price pressures and expanding affordable housing opportunities.</li>
<li>The impact of planning regulations on housing supply responsiveness is modest, though there is some evidence that government planning policies that promote housing growth are leading to an increase in housing supply.</li>
<li>Developers are more willing to work with restrictive policies that are implemented by planning officers with consistency, than with more lenient policies that come with conflicting consistency and advice. </li>
</ul>
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Increases in Sydney and Perth housing stock fails to meet population growth

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GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board for May provide no real changes from the April minutes.
As with April, the minutes concluded with “the Board continued to judge that developments in the labour and housing markets warranted careful monitoring”.
This comment was not included in the Governor’s statement following the May board meeting possibly suggesting that the Board had become more relaxed on these issues.
Consequently, repeating the statement in these minutes confirms the Board’s most prominent areas of interest.
The commentary on the housing market was little changed from April with conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne markets being described as “robust” (compared to April – “strengthened further”) -while prices had been falling in Perth.
The threat of additional supply, particularly from apartments, was repeated, with Brisbane being held out for particular attention.
Concerns with household leverage continued to be emphasised - “the risks associated with household balance sheets had been rising”.
Equally, the Board expects that recently announced supervisory measures will assist in this regard, although time will be needed to assess the full effects.
Data on the labour market is described as “somewhat mixed”, although forward indicators provide some comfort that “spare capacity in the labour market will decline gradually”.
Since April, the Board received an update on inflation with the release of the March quarter inflation report.
This report was described as “in line with forecasts” and consistent with, in the Board’s view, that the underlying inflation rate would pick up to around 2% by early 2018.
(Note, that still represents the bottom of the 2-3% target band and the forecasts in the May SoMP do not have inflation back in the middle of the 2-3% band until mid 2019).
The Board neatly describes the inflation dynamics around strong competitive pressures in the retail sector and soft wages growth being partly offset by higher utilities and housing construction costs, although these costs are around materials rather than wages.
The forecasts that growth will lift above 3% in the first half of 2018 is attributed to “the drag from declining mining investment waned and as resources exports continued to pick up”.
Consumption is still forecast to expand above its average rate of recent years, with risks being balanced.
It is interesting to note that these minutes include a comment “a fall in housing prices would also weigh on consumption growth” – this prospect has not been discussed in recent minutes.
The Board expects that commodity prices will continue to fall, probably moving back towards the levels of mid 2016 when the spot iron ore price was around USD$50 compared to the current USD$60.
They are also cautious about the impact of the rising terms of trade on activity particularly boosting mining investment.
There is limited confidence around the outlook for non-mining business investment with some surveys pointing to a lift in intentions and others indicating that it will be some time before we see stronger mining investment growth.
Commentary around global conditions is more positive. “The broad-based nature of the data… provided some confidence that the expansion could become self-reinforcing”.
Monetary policy clearly remains on hold as the Board assesses developments in those key markets – housing and the labour markets.
The persistent view remains that despite clear evidence that the housing construction cycle will turn down (and regulation and recent rate hikes are likely to slow housing activity and price appreciation), risks are still evident around household leverage.
On the other hand, while the Board appears to be increasingly more confident on the global outlook, there is limited optimism around the labour market; household consumption; and non-mining investment.
From our perspective, the persistent view that growth will evolve around 0.5 percent above trend in 2018 and 2019 seems overly optimistic.
While it may seem that the Bank expects to be tightening policy in 2018, our view remains that developments in the housing market; labour market; and global environment will not justify such a policy.
We remain comfortable with our view that rates will remain on hold for the remainder of 2017 and 2018.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a><a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2017/2017-05-02" target="_blank">.</a><a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2017/2017-05-02" target="_blank"> </a>
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Rates on hold through 2017 and 2018 as housing market remains robust: Bill Evans

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Toowoomba’s housing market is starting to decline, but price growth is still apparent for current vendors.
According to Herron Todd White’s latest report, the property valuation firm says that in the past month Toowoomba’s housing market was beginning to decline and now it is set to continue declining.
Despite Toowoomba’s residential market being past it’s peak it can also be described as multi speed.
There is currently an oversupply of residential products, particularly units, that emerged during 2016.
As a result vacancy rates have increased while rental rates and investor interest has reduced.
“While properties in the sub $400,000 market have showed some signs of regression in value and rental rates, it appears that higher end property above $600,000 and even the $1 million plus price point have enjoyed a good level of interest with some strong sales being achieved,” the report stated.
Herron Todd White says that properties in the mid-range has also moved along steadily with a good level of interest from owner occupiers.
“Market performance appears to be particularly property type and location specific.
Higher priced established properties in the eastern suburbs appear to be enjoying strong interest from owner occupiers (third and fourth home buyers), while interest in the western suburbs, which largely appeals to first home buyers and investors, has softened,” the report commented.
Herron Todd White says that despite major projects occurring in the area, the residential values are anticipated to remain stable this year.
“The vacancy rate at slightly above 3% combined with recent interest rate increases for investors is likely to keep the lower end of the market subdued.
The market will be positively influenced through the creation of long term sustainable employment opportunities, which may be generated by the flow on effects of the transport infrastructure projects underway, in planning and completed (TSRC, Wellcamp Brisbane West Airport and Inland Rail).
Investment activity may be reignited if major lenders were able to focus the current tightening of lending criteria on the major capital city markets only, while supporting investment in regional markets,” the report stated.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%201.30.24%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%201.30.24%20pm.jpg" alt="">
Meanwhile Ipswich’s housing market is now currently beginning to recover.
Sydney now is steadily rising once again.
A four bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-withcott-125452658" target="_blank">61 Parkridge Drive</a> in Withcott, Toowoomba (above) has been listed for over $519,000 having last traded for $110,000 in 2004.
A three bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-rockville-125320666" target="_blank">5 Kettle Street</a> in Rockville (below), just outside of the Toowoomba CBD is under offer having been listed for $249,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/12/5%20Kettle%20Street.jpg" alt="">
A three bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-east+toowoomba-124494894" target="_blank">79 Herries Street</a>, East Toowoomba (below) was sold last week for $529,000. It last sold for $300,000 in 2013.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/12/79%20Herries%20Street.jpg" alt="">
A four bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-rockville-124326502" target="_blank">158 Tor Street</a>, Rockville (below) was sold in last week for $345,000. It last traded for $295,000 in 2006.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/12/158%20Tor%20Street.jpg" alt="">
Last month Property Observer reported that NSW regions were at the top of the property clock for houses.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Toowoomba housing market set to decline as Sydney rises: May HTW Clock

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While the financial position of households has been fairly resilient, vulnerabilities persist for some highly indebted households, especially those located in the resource-rich states, the recent RBA's Financial Stability Review has noted.
Household indebtedness (as measured by the ratio of debt to disposable income) has increased further, primarily due to rising levels of housing debt, although weak income growth is also contributing.
Rising indebtedness can make households more vulnerable to potential income declines and higher interest rates.
This is of most concern for households that have very high levels of debt.
Low interest rates are helping to offset the cost of servicing larger amounts of debt and hence total mortgage servicing costs remain around their recent lows (Graph 2.5).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/Graph%202.5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/Graph%202.5.jpg" alt="">
In this regard, lenders have tightened mortgage serviceability assessments in recent years to include larger interest rate buffers, which should provide some protection against the potential effects of higher interest rates.
Prepayments on mortgages increase the resilience of household balance sheets.
Aggregate mortgage buffers – balances in offset accounts and redraw facilities – are high, at around 17 per cent of outstanding loan balances or around 21⁄2 years of scheduled repayments at current interest rates.
However, these aggregate figures mask significant variation across borrowers, with available data suggesting that around one-third of borrowers have either no accrued buffer or a buffer of less than one month’s repayments.
Those with minimal buffers tend to have newer mortgages, or to be lower-income or lower-wealth households.
Weak economic conditions, and declining housing prices, continue to present challenges to the financial health of households in regions with large exposures to the mining sector.
For example, the rate of personal administrations in Western Australia increased further over the second half of 2016.
While commodity prices have increased, this seems unlikely to translate into significantly improved labour market outcomes in these regions in the near term.
If housing prices continue to decline in these locations, then banks may face additional losses on their mortgage portfolios.
Find the RBA's latest Financial Stability Review 2017 <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Households continue to have high levels of debt: RBA warns

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76505/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
There’s been quite a bit of speculation over whether Australia has a property market bubble - where house prices are over-inflated compared to a benchmark - and when it might burst.
According to housing experts, there’s at least four scenarios where this could happen.
Australia could see a property bubble burst due to:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li2">Lending tightening, interest rate hikes and mortgage stress</li>
<li class="li2">Underemployment and unemployment creating a slow deflation</li>
<li class="li2">Government intervention failure and market repair</li>
<li class="li2">Global crisis</li>
</ul>
These four scenarios focus on different tension points in Australia’s and the global economy. One scenario focuses on the balance of actions between regulators like APRA and the Reserve Bank, combined with household mortgage stress. Another envisions the affect that unemployment might have in certain areas.
Some of the factors we may see play out, such as the federal and state government trying to intervene to “fix” problems in the market, as happens in one scenario. But other factors may be out of the government’s control, for example, where a global crisis pushes up risk premiums.
All of these scenarios highlight just how complicated and interrelated the steps that lead to a property bubble burst could be.
Lending tightening, interest rate hikes and mortgage stress
Associate Professor Harry Scheule, UTS Business School
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-25594-sr2cd9.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-25594-sr2cd9.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Following concerns of the housing bubble, bank regulator APRA increases bank lending standards, it also increases the risk weight on Australian mortgages resulting in lower loan supply and higher loan costs. Banks are encouraged to reduce interest-only loans, hold a greater amount of costly capital (making home loans more expensive) and reduce the loan amounts offered to applicants due to higher future interest scenarios.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12655-nn7let.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Following increases in interest rates in the US and Europe, as those markets recover, the Australian dollar begins to decline – forcing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase interest rates.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12640-1lrrxft.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a>
Higher interest rates lead to higher monthly repayments, as most of Australia’s home loans are adjustable. Interest only loans are the most exposed. Higher interest rates also lead to more mortgage delinquencies.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15097-i6a8cl.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a>
The banks tighten bank lending standards in response to the increase in delinquencies. This further constrains interest-only borrowers seeking to refinance after the end of the interest-only terms. This means more mortgage stress, as many had expected to roll over the interest-only period indefinitely, but now they are forced to make principal repayments next to interest payments.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12627-djg6hq.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The cycle between delinquencies and tightening bank lending standards continues and as a result there’s a noticeable drop in loan supply and a fall in house prices. 
Underemployment and unemployment create a slow deflation
Danika Wright, Lecturer in Finance, University of Sydney
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-14s147l.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Unemployment and underemployment - workers who want to work more but can’t - increase. As the apartment development boom dies down, and without a mining boom to replace it, construction industry workers are at high risk.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12629-1g17gp1.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Households with a lot of mortgage debt are forced to limit their spending, particularly on discretionary items. This in turn affects companies that employ retail workers, reducing hours and employment.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12645-1thbkt5.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Employment opportunities are a major component of house price amenity, in part because demand for housing is pushed higher by inbound work-related migration. So, as there are less jobs nearby, the amenity value of some areas decreases.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15121-1a3mn50.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The amount of people at risk of defaulting on their mortgage increases in areas where there is a loss of employment or reduced income. In 2008, arguably the last time Sydney house prices went through a correction, the incidence of mortgage defaults and property price declines was geographically localised.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15086-1qrzafm.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Borrowers who have the least amount of equity in their homes (typically the least wealthy, younger and newer entrants to housing market) are the hardest hit by falling property values. They are more likely to end up “underwater” – that is, owing more than the property is now worth – and face the prospect of a distressed sale. This in turn contributes to the downward spiral in house prices.
Australia has tighter lending criteria than regulators enforced before the global financial crisis in the United States. But concerns by regulators, including APRA, over current lending practices and potentially fraudulent activities raise questions over the real quality of mortgages and the ability of borrowers to repay them.
Government intervention failure and market repair
Professors of Economics, Jason Potts and Sinclair Davidson, RMIT
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-22270-1wxliec.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
A combination of low interest rates and low growth in new housing stock drive up Australian housing prices, a situation compounded by poor policy choices by state and federal governments and high demand from foreign residential property investors.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12658-1w2f933.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
As a result housing is misallocated in the Australian market, across demographic and especially age groups. This produces demographic pressures, as millennials delay leaving home, delay starting families. This leads to political pressure on governments – increases the urge to intervene.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12669-19vk1qg.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The federal government intervenes, blaming the secondary drivers (particularly the non-voting group: foreign investors). They increase restrictions on foreign investment in residential housing stock.
The federal government also lobbies APRA to increase rules on financial products, while promoting a scheme to subsidise and promote first home ownership.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-23807-i1c8wi.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Because none of these previous measures from the federal government affect the primary drivers of the misallocation of housing, domestic interest rates don’t change, and state governments do not act to release new stock. As a result housing prices continue to grow.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-27254-4qwo2z.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Increasingly alarmed that house prices continue to rise, the federal government starts to panic, threatening ever further regulation and starts to blame the financial system. This triggers the RBA to finally act, raising interest rates.
As interest rates rise, this causes mortgage stress, resulting in default among investors with high amounts of debt, pushing these properties onto the market. These distressed sales finally cause prices to fall.
Global crisis
Timo Henckel, Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12629-1juog2j.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
International crisis (whether it be political, military, economic) leads to an increase in global risk premiums.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12645-qj07.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Borrowing costs for Australian banks rise because of this and supply of global capital falls, pushing up mortgage rates in Australia.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-z8xdgo.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The most vulnerable mortgagees can no longer afford their mortgages and are forced to sell their homes.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-1fhdu2b.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
House prices fall which, coupled with rising interest rates, adds further distress to households’ balance sheets, leading to more selling of houses and so on.
Jenni Henderson is editor, Business and Economy, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here</a>.
Wes Mountain is<a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#wes-mountain"> </a>deputy multimedia editor, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here.</a>
 
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