Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Housing Market

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Residential property price growth is expected to slow as the heat comes out of the Sydney and Melbourne markets, according to AMP Capital’s latest market update.
Meanwhile, the search for yields amid poor returns from cash and bank deposits is expected to continue to benefit unlisted commercial property and infrastructure, at least in the near term.
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver also noted that while Australian consumers remain sceptical about shares as the “wisest place for their savings” their interest in superannuation has picked up, likely in response to recent super reforms which allow for large one-off contributions before the financial year ends on June 30. 
Something similar was seen in a decade earlier in 2007, he said.
He also said that even amid the scepticism around real estate that has been around for more than a year now, prices haven’t stopped growing in Sydney and Melbourne’s property markets.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/AMPSNAPSHOT.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/AMPSNAPSHOT.png" alt="">
The recent strength in jobs data, consistent with forward-looking labour market indicators, along with solid business conditions partly offset other recent more negative data such as falling consumer confidence and poor wages growth. 
“The jobs data and the NAB survey support the RBA in leaving interest rates on hold for now,” Oliver said. 
“But given softer data for growth, consumer spending, housing construction, non-mining investment and wages growth, our view remains that there is more risk of another rate cut than a rate hike in the next 12 months or so. “
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Property prices expected to slow as heat comes out of market: AMP Capital

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GUEST OBSERVER
It is yet too soon to gauge the true impact of recent macro-prudential measures on the housing market, but recent reads on prices suggest the market could already be close to its peak.
According to CoreLogic’s hedonic price measure, property prices fell in May, including in the major boom cities of Sydney and Melbourne – prices fell for both detached houses and units, although the latter fell by more. Declines were not uniform, however, with dwelling prices rising in both Brisbane and Adelaide.
Mortgage lending has cooled only slightly, but is expected to be weighed down as lenders look to stem the flow of interest only loans (with the biggest impact likely to be seen in investor credit). Mortgage credit rose by a steady (albeit subdued) 0.5% m/m in April, as investor credit actually outpaced owner-occupied credit modestly.
Looming headwinds from prudential tightening, combined with rising housing supply, affordability constraints and modest wages growth (which looks set to continue), validate our expectation for the housing market to cool from here.
That said, while the risks have certainly compounded, we continue to expect an orderly conclusion to the long-running housing boom in major markets, with the profile also helped by additional policy announcements of late to support first home buyers.
Our national forecasts for houses in 2017 are 7.2 percent in 2017 and 4.3 percent in 2018. Unit prices are forecast to rise 6.8 percent in 2017, but will fall modestly in 2018 (-0.4 percent).
Forecasts for 2017 anticipate additional modest growth in coming months, suggesting a degree of downside risk.
Dwelling investment dropped by a greater than expected 4.4 percent in Q4, occurring despite a pipeline of construction projects that is close to record levels – although weather related disruptions may have contributed to the result.
However, it is possible that supply is being constrained by other factors, including deliberate delays by developers in response to rising settlement concerns. Capacity constraints and tighter credit availability are other possible explanations.
Declines were seen across both new and used dwellings (down 4 percent) and alterations &amp; additions (renovations, down 5.2 percent). Growth in dwelling investment over the year was also soft at -2.5 percent y/y.
New building approvals have come off from their highs, but have held steady at higher than expected levels in recent months.
That might suggest the housing construction boom has a little further to run (despite recent declines in dwelling investment), although our economic modelling still points to significant downside risks to the outlook. Overall, dwelling investment is expected to be flat in 2017 (revised down due to very weak Q1 outcome), before turning modestly negative (-0.4 percent and -2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively). 
Hints that housing prices are starting to peak will be welcome by the Reserve Bank who remain concerned about elevated household debt. While it is early days, this is consistent with our view that housing prices will slow from here, particularly given further tightening in credit growth as banks are forced to cut back on interest only loans. No rate hikes are likely however until mid- 2019.  
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/">here</a>.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Property market could already be close to its peak: Alan Oster

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/77402/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Investors have played an increasingly important role in the Australian housing market in recent years. Our new research shows the actual return rate for housing investors almost doubled a layman’s expectation. Experienced investors are taking advantage of the knowledge gap and might continue to price out other housing buyers. 
The sharp increase in investor credit in recent years could be partly attributed to the strong growth of housing prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. However, the reported capital gains might not have fully reflected investors’ actual returns as the impact of debt financing in property investment has been neglected. 
Since housing investors typically use large amounts of debt to fund their investment, using the return on equity (after adjusting for debt financing) more accurately reflects their actual return. 
In recent years, regulators such as the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and lenders have implemented measures to moderate the growth of investor lending. Despite these efforts, investors have come back into the housing market since the second half of 2016. 
Proportion of housing investment loans
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170523-8895-1g4m2hp.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170523-8895-1g4m2hp.png" alt="">
<div class="enlarge_hint">ABS, Housing Finance, Australia: February 2017</div>
 
<h2>Higher returns come with greater risk</h2>
Our research sampled properties in 14 suburbs across Sydney, using the Property Investors Alliance database. The results provide some empirical evidence to demonstrate the housing return on equity with debt financing is significantly higher, at an annual return of nearly 14 percent per year, than the housing return on property without debt financing of about 7 percent per year.
This could explain the increasing proportion of investment loans in the housing market. The knowledge of investors’ advantage should also be used to inform the ongoing debate about regulating investment housing loans to enhance housing affordability for first home buyers in particular.
It is important to highlight the effect of debt financing on decisions to invest in housing. The results clearly show the enhanced returns are likely to have an acute impact. 
At the same time, a higher risk level as a result of the use of debt financing has also been documented. This highlights that housing investors should closely manage their exposure to financial risk from using debt financing by using a prudential risk-management tool.
Returns and risk on housing portfolios: 2009-2015
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170511-21598-1gyjv43.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170511-21598-1gyjv43.png" alt="">
Author provided
<h2>Explaining the increased rate of return</h2>
We used an assumption of 20 percent equity to demonstrate the impact of debt financing, which is in line with the current deposit requirement from major banks. Here’s an example to demonstrate the effect of debt financing. 
Say an investor buys a house for A$1 million. The investor provides a 20 percent deposit ($200,000); therefore $800,000 was borrowed. The investor took an “interest-only” loan with an interest rate of 5 percent per year – so the interest cost is $40,000 per year. The investor also receives a net rental income of $30,000 in Year 1.
A year later, the investor decides to sell the property for $1.1 million (its value having increased by 10 percent over the year). The traditional performance analysis of property (without debt financing) would show the return on this housing investment is 13 percent: ($1,100,000-1,000,000+$30,000)/$1,000,000 = 13 percent. 
Given the housing investor used debt financing, 13 percent is not the actual return for the investor. The investor’s actual return on equity for the investor is 45 percent: ($300,000-$200,000)+($30,000-$40,000)/$200,000 = 45 percent. 
Property returns vs equity returns
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170520-12263-sf1nd0.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/26/file-20170520-12263-sf1nd0.png" alt="">
Author provided
<h2>Experienced investors exploit their advantage</h2>
Overall, the results suggest the actual return rate for housing investors is significantly higher than the layman might expect from the major housing index providers. 
The documented returns may not be applicable, however, to owner occupiers who are also using debt financing, via mortgages, to buy their property. There are two main reasons for this:
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owner occupiers mainly use their houses for their own residency purposes, so no rental income will be generated to offset the mortgage repayment; and
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housing investors are able to sell their properties whenever they want to realise gains in value, while owner occupiers do not have that flexibility.
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Importantly, experienced housing investors, in the current low interest rate environment, have realised the benefits of debt financing and taken advantage of the knowledge gap to exploit the higher returns available to them.
These findings also highlight the need for an innovative product to assist home buyers to enter the housing market.
Chyi Lin Lee is associate professor of Property, Western Sydney University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chyi-lin-lee-368009" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Investors exploiting returns on debt financing to muscle out home buyers

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GUEST OBSERVER
Two weeks following the budget, the topic of housing affordability is still not waning.
Australia and the world united last week to slam young real estate mogul, Tim Gurner, who claimed young Australians can’t afford to buy property because they are spending “$40 a day on smashed avocados” and “not working”. The story spread like wildfire nationally as well as globally with media outlets including TIME Magazine, Washington Post, and The LA Times picking up the story.
While sensationalised, the crux of the problem has still not been addressed.  
Recent research conducted by iBuildNew which surveyed Australian FHBs to examine how much an affordable house is considered to cost, what the biggest barriers to entry are, where and what housing alternatives were being considered, and other useful statistics and insights. The full findings can be found in the Appendix below.
About the super saver scheme
The Government will help Australians boost their savings for their first home by allowing them to build a deposit inside superannuation. These contributions, which are taxed at 15 per cent, along with deemed earnings, can be withdrawn for a deposit from 1 July, 2018.
While the 'First Home Super Savers Scheme' will provide some benefit to Australian FHBs, it needs to still be kept in perspective in terms of popularity among its target audience:
As an incentive to help FHB's save I really like the scheme, but am skeptical as to how effective this will be in terms of how many people will take this up.  
I suspect FHB's will not see the incentive as strong enough and have concerns their savings will be locked away until retirement if they can't ultimately save enough, property prices keep rising, or their personal circumstances change, which are all legitimate concerns. 
In theory however, if a FHB is on $80,000 pa and elects to salary sacrifice $1,000 per month into super for a deposit, within 2.5 years they will save the $30,000. Depending on their state, they should be eligible for the FHB grant of $10,000-$15,000 (let's say $15,000), so they then have $45,000 in total savings. An average off-the-plan house and land package across Australia is $440,000 and if you assume you need 20% of the total amount (worst case) to secure a loan from the bank, the FHB still needs to save or access another $43,000.  
This is in no way a slam dunk but may be possible if they already have some sort of additional savings or can access equity in their parent’s home, for example. However, with only just over 20 percent of FHB’s considering new home builds with most preferring established properties at much higher starting prices, this savings challenge is far more acute for most. Unfortunately, the numbers don’t lie, and while this initiative may create some savings discipline from the few that take it up, most FHB’s dream of owning their own home will still be out of reach.
Relevant statistics (per iBuildNew recent survey findings): 76 per cent of first home buyers can’t get into the property market because they can’t save the deposit or secure a loan.
Only 22 percent of FHBs are considering a new home build as their entry option to the property market, with 60 per cent preferring to buy established despite the significant price differential between the two options.
About retirees downsizing super exemptions 
In a bid to release more property to the market and help tackle housing affordability for Aussie first home buyers, Australians over 65 years of age will be able to contribute an additional $300,000 from the sale of their main residence (if they have owned it for 10 years) into their superfund at non-concessional rates.
Starting from July next year, this scheme was designed to encourage retirees to actively consider downsizing in an attempt to free up larger homes for younger families and FHBs. Downsizing to free up capital makes a lot of sense for the older generation as they often own their own home with significant equity, but may not have much super to live off.
I am is very skeptical about this initiative. He thinks this won't help first home buyers at all and is simply a strategy from the government to relieve pressure on pension entitlements:
Firstly retirees that have been in their home for more than 10 years generally live in homes that cost $1,000,000 or more, so creating new supply in this high-cost range won't help first home buyers at all. Any impact is likely to be at the upper end of the housing market, not in the sub $450,000 where most FHB’s consider affordable. This initiative in the short term actually has a negative impact on supply as some retirees that would have otherwise downsized in the next 6-12 months will now be holding off selling their house until this initiative takes effect in July 2018.
Secondly, and most importantly, we see this as being a strategy from the government to relieve pressure on pension entitlements. At the end of the day the country has an issue on how to fund pensions entitlements, so this would take some pressure off if retirees took it up. However, accountants will advise their clients to think very carefully about this as the principal place of residency is excluded from the net asset means test calculations when it comes to pension eligibility.
Many simply don’t want to leave what they know, but many won’t want to forgo the state pension in lieu of their super pension, so you really have to question what impact this will have on housing supply. Branding the retiree downsizing scheme as a housing affordability measure I find very strange, at least for FHB’s.
Relevant statistic (per iBuildNew recent survey findings): 63 pe cent of first home buyers believe an affordable house costs less than $450,000, 85 percent think it’s less than $600,000.
About the foreign owners rent levy
Overseas property investors who leave their houses unoccupied will face an annual charge to help encourage foreign owners to make their property available to rent to improve rental supply – or that’s the plan anyway. Predictions on empty properties put the number as high as 300,000 across the country, however Mr. Peterson believes the levy will do nothing to increase housing affordability:
The levy only starts from $5,000, so even the more expensive properties around Australia will only attract a $15,000 slap on the wrist. For the Chinese who are using this as a strategy to get money into a safe haven (often several million dollars), a small annual charge is unlikely to drive a change in behavior from these types of investors who are more concerned about capital preservation than realizing rental returns. Even if it does, all this would do is ensure more blue chip houses are available for rent, generally at rental rates that people who are looking for affordable housing, can't afford anyway.
I think this is bit of a cop out by the Government who are trying to blame foreign investors for the housing supply shortage and affordability, when in reality they are a minority group undertaking this activity, so they have missed the mark.
About the release of surplus government land
As part of the housing affordability package released in the budget announcement the government has earmarked 127 hectares of surplus land in Melbourne which could house up to 6,000 properties. They have also outlined similar measures for Western Sydney. It is initiatives like this that can make a real difference.
The release of government land is one of the few genuine measures announced in this year’s budget that will actually help the housing affordability challenge. It directly impacts supply of land, and that has a direct impact on price and affordability.
In my view this type of land should be made almost exclusively for first home buyers, with a double FHB grant available on the purchase of such land when committed as part of a house and land package. If the super saving scheme is going to have any real impact, it still needs to be coupled with a first home buyer grant if FHB’s are going to be any chance of saving sufficient deposit in the Melbourne and Sydney markets.
However, FHB’s need to look beyond the inner suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney, lift their eyes and explore some of the outer suburbs if they are serious about getting into the property market. A new build house and land package is typically 40% plus cheaper than an inner suburb established property, not to mention its brand new.
Relevant research (per iBuildNew recent survey findings): 64 percent of first home buyers are only prepared to look at properties within their suburb of choice or surrounding suburbs.
Only 22 percent of first home buyers are considering a new home build while 60 per cent are focused on buying an established home or townhouse.
76 percent of first home buyers can’t get into the property market because they can’t save the deposit or secure a loan.
Daniel Peterson is chief executive officer, iBuildNew, and can be contacted <a href="https://www.ibuildnew.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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iBuildNew rejects three key initiatives from the 2017 Budget first home buyer measures 

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Housing price growth in China’s tier-1 cities has slowed down slightly and the pace shows a passing of the baton from the centre to the regions, says Westpac’s latest China Property Update.
The 70-city house price update for the month of April highlights authorities’ tight management of the sector. 
Tier-1 city price growth continues to be reined in as price growth is sustained elsewhere. In April, the number of cities reporting price gains fell to 58 from 62 for new housing and to 61 from 64 for the established market. 
Both results are toward the upper end of the range seen over the past year, signalling price gains remain broad across the nation, said Westpac. Across the three tiers, the pace of annual price growth clearly shows a passing of the baton from the centre to the regions. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/westpac1.png" alt="">
Over the past year, annual price growth for new housing in tier-1 has decelerated from 31% per year a year ago to 14% year (17% year for established housing). 
“Whereas Shenzhen initially provided all of the impetus to this slowdown, now all of the tier-1 cities are experiencing decelerating price growth,” said report author Elliot Clarke.
However, Shenzhen has still (by far) seen the largest decline, from 62% year in April 2016 to 6% year currently. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/westpac2.png" alt=""> 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/westpac3.png" alt="">
Growth in Tier-2 also slowed down, though on a much more modest level. Growth fell from 12% year in November to 10% year for new builds, while it fell to 8% per year to 10% in October for the established market. 
In contrast, price growth for tier-3 cities has held up, with annual growth currently around 9% yr for new homes and 7%yr for existing. 
Westpac noted that around a year ago, annual growth for this sub-set of cities was just 2% yr. From the above price trends, it is best to conclude that the actions of authorities have spread investor activity more broadly rather than halting it outright. 
This is most obvious in the opposing price trends for tier-1 and tier-3 cities – the latter’s’ frequent geographic proximity to the former combined with rapidly improving transport infrastructure arguably sparking growing investor interest. 
While growth in housing starts is modest, developers continued strong appetite for land suggests they remain optimistic on the outlook for the sector. 
“That said, they are likely to manage the supply of new housing to match demand and see moderate price growth (which doesn’t raise the ire of authorities) sustained,” said Westpac’s note. 
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Housing price growth in China's cities edges down: Westpac 

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Increases in Sydney and Perth housing stock has so far failed to match population growth according to research from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) and the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC).
The research, titled Housing supply responsiveness in Australia: distribution, drivers and institutional settings, found increases in Perth and Sydney’s housing stock over the past ten years have been insufficient to match the increase in their growing populations, with supply-side barriers more acute in Sydney than Perth.
Professor Rachel Ong, Deputy Director of BCEC, said while national growth in Australia’s housing stock has kept pace with population growth over the last ten years, the picture is very different for some of our major capitals.
“We’d normally expect to see a trickle-down effect, where building higher-value homes leads to the opening up of lower-value homes for those on lower incomes," she said.
"Our research indicates this isn’t the case, meaning an increase in housing supply is not leading to better housing affordability.
“This indicates that a broader policy response is needed to address the structural impediments that weaken the 'trickle down' impact on new housing supply.
"There is a real need for targeted government intervention, including measures that improve financial incentives for developers to build at the lower end of the housing market.”
The report also found most new housing is concentrated in mid-to-high price market segments and the supply of units is more likely to be concentrated in job-rich areas." 
“A likely result of that will be shorter commuting time to work, which offers an important boost to productivity,” Professor Ong said.
Key findings of the report include:
<ul>
<li>An increase in the level of real housing prices by 1 percent produces an estimated 4.7 percent increase in new housing supply. Units with a 1 percent price increase yields a 3.9 percent increase in supply.</li>
<li>Structural impediments weaken the ‘trickling down’ of new housing supply from mid-to-high price segments to lower-value segments, where affordable housing is needed for those on low incomes.</li>
<li>Targeted government intervention is needed to ensure an adequate supply of affordable housing.</li>
<li>The supply of units appears to be higher (all else equal) in already developed areas. Therefore, measures that further promote the construction of units could prove an effective pathway to easing price pressures and expanding affordable housing opportunities.</li>
<li>The impact of planning regulations on housing supply responsiveness is modest, though there is some evidence that government planning policies that promote housing growth are leading to an increase in housing supply.</li>
<li>Developers are more willing to work with restrictive policies that are implemented by planning officers with consistency, than with more lenient policies that come with conflicting consistency and advice. </li>
</ul>
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Increases in Sydney and Perth housing stock fails to meet population growth

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GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board for May provide no real changes from the April minutes.
As with April, the minutes concluded with “the Board continued to judge that developments in the labour and housing markets warranted careful monitoring”.
This comment was not included in the Governor’s statement following the May board meeting possibly suggesting that the Board had become more relaxed on these issues.
Consequently, repeating the statement in these minutes confirms the Board’s most prominent areas of interest.
The commentary on the housing market was little changed from April with conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne markets being described as “robust” (compared to April – “strengthened further”) -while prices had been falling in Perth.
The threat of additional supply, particularly from apartments, was repeated, with Brisbane being held out for particular attention.
Concerns with household leverage continued to be emphasised - “the risks associated with household balance sheets had been rising”.
Equally, the Board expects that recently announced supervisory measures will assist in this regard, although time will be needed to assess the full effects.
Data on the labour market is described as “somewhat mixed”, although forward indicators provide some comfort that “spare capacity in the labour market will decline gradually”.
Since April, the Board received an update on inflation with the release of the March quarter inflation report.
This report was described as “in line with forecasts” and consistent with, in the Board’s view, that the underlying inflation rate would pick up to around 2% by early 2018.
(Note, that still represents the bottom of the 2-3% target band and the forecasts in the May SoMP do not have inflation back in the middle of the 2-3% band until mid 2019).
The Board neatly describes the inflation dynamics around strong competitive pressures in the retail sector and soft wages growth being partly offset by higher utilities and housing construction costs, although these costs are around materials rather than wages.
The forecasts that growth will lift above 3% in the first half of 2018 is attributed to “the drag from declining mining investment waned and as resources exports continued to pick up”.
Consumption is still forecast to expand above its average rate of recent years, with risks being balanced.
It is interesting to note that these minutes include a comment “a fall in housing prices would also weigh on consumption growth” – this prospect has not been discussed in recent minutes.
The Board expects that commodity prices will continue to fall, probably moving back towards the levels of mid 2016 when the spot iron ore price was around USD$50 compared to the current USD$60.
They are also cautious about the impact of the rising terms of trade on activity particularly boosting mining investment.
There is limited confidence around the outlook for non-mining business investment with some surveys pointing to a lift in intentions and others indicating that it will be some time before we see stronger mining investment growth.
Commentary around global conditions is more positive. “The broad-based nature of the data… provided some confidence that the expansion could become self-reinforcing”.
Monetary policy clearly remains on hold as the Board assesses developments in those key markets – housing and the labour markets.
The persistent view remains that despite clear evidence that the housing construction cycle will turn down (and regulation and recent rate hikes are likely to slow housing activity and price appreciation), risks are still evident around household leverage.
On the other hand, while the Board appears to be increasingly more confident on the global outlook, there is limited optimism around the labour market; household consumption; and non-mining investment.
From our perspective, the persistent view that growth will evolve around 0.5 percent above trend in 2018 and 2019 seems overly optimistic.
While it may seem that the Bank expects to be tightening policy in 2018, our view remains that developments in the housing market; labour market; and global environment will not justify such a policy.
We remain comfortable with our view that rates will remain on hold for the remainder of 2017 and 2018.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a><a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2017/2017-05-02" target="_blank">.</a><a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2017/2017-05-02" target="_blank"> </a>
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Rates on hold through 2017 and 2018 as housing market remains robust: Bill Evans

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Toowoomba’s housing market is starting to decline, but price growth is still apparent for current vendors.
According to Herron Todd White’s latest report, the property valuation firm says that in the past month Toowoomba’s housing market was beginning to decline and now it is set to continue declining.
Despite Toowoomba’s residential market being past it’s peak it can also be described as multi speed.
There is currently an oversupply of residential products, particularly units, that emerged during 2016.
As a result vacancy rates have increased while rental rates and investor interest has reduced.
“While properties in the sub $400,000 market have showed some signs of regression in value and rental rates, it appears that higher end property above $600,000 and even the $1 million plus price point have enjoyed a good level of interest with some strong sales being achieved,” the report stated.
Herron Todd White says that properties in the mid-range has also moved along steadily with a good level of interest from owner occupiers.
“Market performance appears to be particularly property type and location specific.
Higher priced established properties in the eastern suburbs appear to be enjoying strong interest from owner occupiers (third and fourth home buyers), while interest in the western suburbs, which largely appeals to first home buyers and investors, has softened,” the report commented.
Herron Todd White says that despite major projects occurring in the area, the residential values are anticipated to remain stable this year.
“The vacancy rate at slightly above 3% combined with recent interest rate increases for investors is likely to keep the lower end of the market subdued.
The market will be positively influenced through the creation of long term sustainable employment opportunities, which may be generated by the flow on effects of the transport infrastructure projects underway, in planning and completed (TSRC, Wellcamp Brisbane West Airport and Inland Rail).
Investment activity may be reignited if major lenders were able to focus the current tightening of lending criteria on the major capital city markets only, while supporting investment in regional markets,” the report stated.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%201.30.24%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%201.30.24%20pm.jpg" alt="">
Meanwhile Ipswich’s housing market is now currently beginning to recover.
Sydney now is steadily rising once again.
A four bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-withcott-125452658" target="_blank">61 Parkridge Drive</a> in Withcott, Toowoomba (above) has been listed for over $519,000 having last traded for $110,000 in 2004.
A three bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-rockville-125320666" target="_blank">5 Kettle Street</a> in Rockville (below), just outside of the Toowoomba CBD is under offer having been listed for $249,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/12/5%20Kettle%20Street.jpg" alt="">
A three bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-east+toowoomba-124494894" target="_blank">79 Herries Street</a>, East Toowoomba (below) was sold last week for $529,000. It last sold for $300,000 in 2013.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/12/79%20Herries%20Street.jpg" alt="">
A four bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-rockville-124326502" target="_blank">158 Tor Street</a>, Rockville (below) was sold in last week for $345,000. It last traded for $295,000 in 2006.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/12/158%20Tor%20Street.jpg" alt="">
Last month Property Observer reported that NSW regions were at the top of the property clock for houses.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Toowoomba housing market set to decline as Sydney rises: May HTW Clock

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While the financial position of households has been fairly resilient, vulnerabilities persist for some highly indebted households, especially those located in the resource-rich states, the recent RBA's Financial Stability Review has noted.
Household indebtedness (as measured by the ratio of debt to disposable income) has increased further, primarily due to rising levels of housing debt, although weak income growth is also contributing.
Rising indebtedness can make households more vulnerable to potential income declines and higher interest rates.
This is of most concern for households that have very high levels of debt.
Low interest rates are helping to offset the cost of servicing larger amounts of debt and hence total mortgage servicing costs remain around their recent lows (Graph 2.5).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/Graph%202.5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/Graph%202.5.jpg" alt="">
In this regard, lenders have tightened mortgage serviceability assessments in recent years to include larger interest rate buffers, which should provide some protection against the potential effects of higher interest rates.
Prepayments on mortgages increase the resilience of household balance sheets.
Aggregate mortgage buffers – balances in offset accounts and redraw facilities – are high, at around 17 per cent of outstanding loan balances or around 21⁄2 years of scheduled repayments at current interest rates.
However, these aggregate figures mask significant variation across borrowers, with available data suggesting that around one-third of borrowers have either no accrued buffer or a buffer of less than one month’s repayments.
Those with minimal buffers tend to have newer mortgages, or to be lower-income or lower-wealth households.
Weak economic conditions, and declining housing prices, continue to present challenges to the financial health of households in regions with large exposures to the mining sector.
For example, the rate of personal administrations in Western Australia increased further over the second half of 2016.
While commodity prices have increased, this seems unlikely to translate into significantly improved labour market outcomes in these regions in the near term.
If housing prices continue to decline in these locations, then banks may face additional losses on their mortgage portfolios.
Find the RBA's latest Financial Stability Review 2017 <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Households continue to have high levels of debt: RBA warns

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76505/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
There’s been quite a bit of speculation over whether Australia has a property market bubble - where house prices are over-inflated compared to a benchmark - and when it might burst.
According to housing experts, there’s at least four scenarios where this could happen.
Australia could see a property bubble burst due to:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li2">Lending tightening, interest rate hikes and mortgage stress</li>
<li class="li2">Underemployment and unemployment creating a slow deflation</li>
<li class="li2">Government intervention failure and market repair</li>
<li class="li2">Global crisis</li>
</ul>
These four scenarios focus on different tension points in Australia’s and the global economy. One scenario focuses on the balance of actions between regulators like APRA and the Reserve Bank, combined with household mortgage stress. Another envisions the affect that unemployment might have in certain areas.
Some of the factors we may see play out, such as the federal and state government trying to intervene to “fix” problems in the market, as happens in one scenario. But other factors may be out of the government’s control, for example, where a global crisis pushes up risk premiums.
All of these scenarios highlight just how complicated and interrelated the steps that lead to a property bubble burst could be.
Lending tightening, interest rate hikes and mortgage stress
Associate Professor Harry Scheule, UTS Business School
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-25594-sr2cd9.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-25594-sr2cd9.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Following concerns of the housing bubble, bank regulator APRA increases bank lending standards, it also increases the risk weight on Australian mortgages resulting in lower loan supply and higher loan costs. Banks are encouraged to reduce interest-only loans, hold a greater amount of costly capital (making home loans more expensive) and reduce the loan amounts offered to applicants due to higher future interest scenarios.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12655-nn7let.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Following increases in interest rates in the US and Europe, as those markets recover, the Australian dollar begins to decline – forcing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase interest rates.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12640-1lrrxft.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a>
Higher interest rates lead to higher monthly repayments, as most of Australia’s home loans are adjustable. Interest only loans are the most exposed. Higher interest rates also lead to more mortgage delinquencies.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15097-i6a8cl.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a>
The banks tighten bank lending standards in response to the increase in delinquencies. This further constrains interest-only borrowers seeking to refinance after the end of the interest-only terms. This means more mortgage stress, as many had expected to roll over the interest-only period indefinitely, but now they are forced to make principal repayments next to interest payments.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12627-djg6hq.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The cycle between delinquencies and tightening bank lending standards continues and as a result there’s a noticeable drop in loan supply and a fall in house prices. 
Underemployment and unemployment create a slow deflation
Danika Wright, Lecturer in Finance, University of Sydney
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-14s147l.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Unemployment and underemployment - workers who want to work more but can’t - increase. As the apartment development boom dies down, and without a mining boom to replace it, construction industry workers are at high risk.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12629-1g17gp1.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Households with a lot of mortgage debt are forced to limit their spending, particularly on discretionary items. This in turn affects companies that employ retail workers, reducing hours and employment.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12645-1thbkt5.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Employment opportunities are a major component of house price amenity, in part because demand for housing is pushed higher by inbound work-related migration. So, as there are less jobs nearby, the amenity value of some areas decreases.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15121-1a3mn50.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The amount of people at risk of defaulting on their mortgage increases in areas where there is a loss of employment or reduced income. In 2008, arguably the last time Sydney house prices went through a correction, the incidence of mortgage defaults and property price declines was geographically localised.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15086-1qrzafm.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Borrowers who have the least amount of equity in their homes (typically the least wealthy, younger and newer entrants to housing market) are the hardest hit by falling property values. They are more likely to end up “underwater” – that is, owing more than the property is now worth – and face the prospect of a distressed sale. This in turn contributes to the downward spiral in house prices.
Australia has tighter lending criteria than regulators enforced before the global financial crisis in the United States. But concerns by regulators, including APRA, over current lending practices and potentially fraudulent activities raise questions over the real quality of mortgages and the ability of borrowers to repay them.
Government intervention failure and market repair
Professors of Economics, Jason Potts and Sinclair Davidson, RMIT
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-22270-1wxliec.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
A combination of low interest rates and low growth in new housing stock drive up Australian housing prices, a situation compounded by poor policy choices by state and federal governments and high demand from foreign residential property investors.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12658-1w2f933.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
As a result housing is misallocated in the Australian market, across demographic and especially age groups. This produces demographic pressures, as millennials delay leaving home, delay starting families. This leads to political pressure on governments – increases the urge to intervene.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12669-19vk1qg.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The federal government intervenes, blaming the secondary drivers (particularly the non-voting group: foreign investors). They increase restrictions on foreign investment in residential housing stock.
The federal government also lobbies APRA to increase rules on financial products, while promoting a scheme to subsidise and promote first home ownership.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-23807-i1c8wi.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Because none of these previous measures from the federal government affect the primary drivers of the misallocation of housing, domestic interest rates don’t change, and state governments do not act to release new stock. As a result housing prices continue to grow.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-27254-4qwo2z.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Increasingly alarmed that house prices continue to rise, the federal government starts to panic, threatening ever further regulation and starts to blame the financial system. This triggers the RBA to finally act, raising interest rates.
As interest rates rise, this causes mortgage stress, resulting in default among investors with high amounts of debt, pushing these properties onto the market. These distressed sales finally cause prices to fall.
Global crisis
Timo Henckel, Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12629-1juog2j.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
International crisis (whether it be political, military, economic) leads to an increase in global risk premiums.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12645-qj07.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Borrowing costs for Australian banks rise because of this and supply of global capital falls, pushing up mortgage rates in Australia.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-z8xdgo.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The most vulnerable mortgagees can no longer afford their mortgages and are forced to sell their homes.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-1fhdu2b.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
House prices fall which, coupled with rising interest rates, adds further distress to households’ balance sheets, leading to more selling of houses and so on.
Jenni Henderson is editor, Business and Economy, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here</a>.
Wes Mountain is<a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#wes-mountain"> </a>deputy multimedia editor, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here.</a>
 
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