Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

Household Debt

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Household debt high, rising faster than the unusually slow growth in incomes: RBA's Philip Lowe

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Record high household debt is expected to be on top of the Reserve Bank’s board meeting’s agenda on Tuesday as the central bank worries about risks to the economy from a shock in the property market.
Though most experts concur that the first rate hikes won’t come soon, but the RBA will be faced with question on Tuesday on whether or not to follow other central banks in lifting the official cash rate.
Australian household debt in the March quarter was at 190 per cent of their yearly disposable income, an all-time high, RBA data showed. The record debt level is even higher than the US just before the financial crisis.
High household debt is know to frequently be a trigger for financial crises.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe had earlier noted that a combination of high household debt and slow wages growth was a sobering combination. (put PO link)
A combination of low interest rates, slow wages growth and surge in home prices fuelled by overseas investor demand and strong population growth have been cited as reasons.
Data from the RBA confirmed that Australia’s record household debt mountain is largely due to soaring property prices.
In the March quarter, Australian housing debt reached 135 per cent of annual disposable income, according to the RBA, breaking another record.
RBA minutes in March noted that there was a build-up of risks associated with the housing market.
However, Treasurer Scott Morrison said recently that regulatory tightening is working to cool the overheated property market without a hard landing.
"The data shows to date that we are moving towards a safe landing when it comes to housing markets in Sydney and the pendulum swinging back in the favour of home owners and first home buyers, which is good news," Morrison said in Sydney on Monday, according to The Australian Financial Review.
In March, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority announced restrictions on interest-only loans in response to record high household debt levels and the measure was has been "fully supported by the government”, he said.
Interest-only loans must be restricted to 30 per cent of new residential mortgage loans, APRA said.
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Record high household debt worries RBA ahead of board meeting

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The Reserve Bank of Australia could raise interest rates eight times in the next two years, given the central bank’s inflation target, according to former board member John Edwards.
The RBA is possibly already considering a schedule of rate increases given its forecasts for inflation returning to target and economic growth rising to 3 percent against a stronger global backdrop, Bloomberg reported, referring to a column Edwards wrote on the website of the Lowy Institute for International Policy, where he is a non-resident fellow.
The central bank has held rates at a record low of 1.5 percent since last August.
At its June meeting, its Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent, with Governor Philip Lowe saying that conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country.
The long-term cash rate was about 3.5 percent -- below the 5.2 percent average over the past two decades -- and the RBA wants to start tightening in 2018 and reach its goal within two years, which would require four quarter-point increases each year, he said. 
“It seems to me that something like eight quarter percentage point tightenings over 2018 and 2019 are distinctly possible, if the RBA’s economic forecasts prove correct,” said Edwards, who was on the bank’s board until July 2016, Bloomberg reported.
“It’s possible the tightening could start earlier, or if not the tightening itself, at least the signaling which should precede it. We may be seeing a little of that now.”
Separately on the Money News show by Ross Greenwood on 2GB, Edwards, a former chief economist of HSBC, said the policy rate would not go higher than 3.5 percent because of the household debt.
When asked by Greenwood that some economies, like Canada and New Zealand, were pushed into recession by rate rises… and if a similar situation could arise in Australia, Edwards said that the RBA would proceed very cautiously. 
The first rate rises are likely not to come before February-March next year, opined Edwards and then increases every quarter.
Traditionally, the RBA changes rates in small increments and typically doesn’t commit itself to subsequent moves, making the market wary of predicting where the bank will be in a few years, Edwards said. 
In the current circumstances, he said we can reasonably assume:
<ul>
<li>the RBA considers its current rate to be exceptionally low </li>
<li>if the economy improves as it predicts, the next move will be up </li>
<li>if the economy was operating, as the RBA predicts, at 3 percent output growth and 2.5 percent inflation, it would think of a sustainable or natural policy rate of at least 3.5 percent </li>
<li>most importantly, it will want the policy rate increase to match the forecast improvement in Australia’s economic performance, so rising to at least 3.5 percent by the end of 2019</li>
</ul>
 He noted the risks of rate increases amid record high household debt, a fact even noted by RBA Governor Philip Lowe.
“The bigger the household debt, the more impact a quarter percentage point increase in the policy rate will have on household spending,” he said. 
“In the Australian case, it is certainly possible that high household home mortgage debt will crimp consumer spending if the policy rate returned to what was once considered a relatively low long-term rate.”
Still, Edwards noted that interest paid on Australian mortgages is much less than it was six years ago: while debt has increased, interest rates have fallen a lot. 
Payments are now 7 percent of disposable income compared with 9.5 percent in 2011, and 11 percent at the peak of the RBA tightening cycle before the 2008 financial crisis, he said.
He said tightening steps would be dictated by how the economy performs.
“If household spending weakness, if the long expected firming of non-mining business investment is further delayed, if the Australian dollar strengthens, if employment growth is persistently weak, then the trajectory of rate rises will be less steep and the pace less rapid.”
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Starting next March RBA could lift interest rates eight times over two years: Ex-board member John Edwards

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Household debt and an increase in income-to-debt ratios add to macro-economic risks, suggests new research.
The study by researchers from the University of Sydney for the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute reveals how the housing market is one contributing factor to these macro-economic risks. 
Titled ‘Housing prices, household debt and consumer spending’, the study examined the effects of house prices and house-price-induced increases in debt on general consumption spending in Australia, focusing specifically on how such links were affected by the GFC.
The study suggests that policymakers should consider the potential risks that high levels of household debt and rising household income-to-debt ratios bring to the economy.
It points to the dangers, saying a number of countries have regulations that “limit the growth of household indebtedness, while the need to ensure robust prudential regulation remains an important policy priority”.
The study identified the consumption patterns for homeowners and home owning investors at different ages and who had greater or smaller amounts of debt or equity in their properties. 
Before the GFC, a rise in housing prices were associated with increases in consumption (i.e. spending or borrowing) for homeowners, particularly because they borrowed a larger fraction of the property price (i.e. had a higher ‘Loan to Value’ (LTV) ratio). 
However, after the GFC households with high LTVs turned more conservative and were no longer increasing their debt to increase consumption as a response to increases in house prices, the research noted.
“Our findings are relevant for macro-economic stability in Australia,” says associate professor Stephen Whelan, from the University of Sydney," it said.
“In particular, the finding that households with higher levels of debt are most responsive to increases in house prices highlights a potential systemic risk. Financing higher consumption through taking debt among highly leveraged households exposes those households to the risk of significant loss if house prices fall or if interest rates rise. This is in contrast to a general belief in Australia that debt is held by those most able to service it, namely, higher income and higher wealth households.
"Before the GFC, for every $100,000 increase in house values old-aged households increased their consumption by $1,000 per year and middle-aged households increased consumption by $1,700. After the GFC, consumption by old- and middle-aged households dropped to $600 and $1,600 per year respectively.
"The significance of this is seen if we consider there are 1.69 million households aged 65 and over who are homeowners (90% of these households do not own another property), then just $400 less being consumed each year by each household means a loss to the economy of approximately $608 million when compared to pre-GFC household consumption."
The report also finds differences in the consumption responses of home owning investors with and without debt.
Following the GFC, home owning investors with no debt became more conservative, reducing their consumption response from around $3,000 to approximately $2,600 per annum for every $100,000 increase in house prices. Whereas investors with mortgage debt became more responsive as their consumption response rose from $1,700 per annum to almost $2,900 per annum for a $100,000 increase in house prices.
The conclusion of this finding was that these investors with mortgage debt are not as risk-adverse when compared to other homeowners.
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Soaring household debt poses risks to economy: AHURI

Household debt, housing prices and resilience: Philip Lowe

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s household debt has been rising and is high by international standards.
The household debt-to-income ratio has risen from 167 percent in 2011 to 190 percent in Q4 2016. Assessing how much to worry about this is not straightforward.
On the one hand, high levels of debt make the economy more vulnerable to a negative economic shock. On the other hand, appropriately allocated debt is an engine of economic growth, as it better allocates resources between savers and investors.
Our long held view is that high household debt is not, in itself, a problem, as long as it is held by households that can continue to service it. The problem faced by many economies during the global financial crisis, such as the US and Spain, was that household debt was misallocated to households that could not service it. In Australia, the latest available statistics suggest that the distribution is fairly favourable.
As at 2014, most of the debt was held by high income earners and there were few low income households with large debt servicing burdens. In addition, Australia does not have sub-prime borrowers and all of the mortgages are full recourse.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.14.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.14.17%20AM.png" alt="">
However, household debt has risen since 2014 and there has been an investor-led house price boom in Sydney and Melbourne. As a result, it is hard to be certain about how much risk has built up recently. The longer it goes on, the more difficult it is to judge. It is for this reason that prudential settings have been tightened and that RBA Governor, Mr. Phil Lowe, has repeated that it would not be in the ‘public interest’ to cut interest rates further if it provided another boost to housing prices and debt.
In its recent financial stability review, the RBA deemed that, given lending standards have been tightening, the key risk from rising household debt is to the macroeconomic cycle rather than financial stability.
The central bank’s own granular assessment is that any build-up of risks that could see rising defaults in a downturn is not large enough to be a financial-system-wide risk. Rather, they suggest the key risk is that the higher household leverage could amplify the economic cycle. We expect that concerns about high and rising household debt will be a key factor that keeps the RBA from cutting its cash rate further. We expect prudential settings to remain tight. 
Household debt is high, but mostly for fundamental reasons
Australia has high household debt and it has been climbing further in recent years. Indeed, across the range of economies regularly tracked by the Bank of International Settlements, Australia has the second highest level of household debt, relative to nominal GDP (Chart 1). In contrast, corporate debt is about average and public debt is low by international standards.
At the outset, a key question is: why is household debt high? In Australia, high household debt reflects that: firstly, the bulk of the housing stock, including the rental properties, is owned directly by the household sector using leverage, which is not the case across many nations; and, secondly, that housing prices are fairly high when compared with household incomes.
On the first point, this is because the owner-occupation rate is high, at around 68%, and because the bulk of the rental properties are also owned by the household sector directly. In Australia, investment properties, which are then rented, are a tax-favoured investment. So, unlike most other economies, including the US, for example, the stock of rental properties involves debt on the household balance sheet, rather than the corporate balance sheet. As a result, around one-quarter of Australia’s household debt is held by investors, which is a key reason that household debt levels are higher in Australia than elsewhere (Chart 2).
On the second point, Australia’s housing prices are fairly high relative to household incomes, although they are not exceptionally so (Chart 3). Australia’s housing-price to income ratio is around 5 times, which is a similar level to the UK, Ireland, Denmark, Spain, and the Netherlands. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.17.13%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.17.13%20AM.png" alt="">
For Australia, housing prices are high for a range of reasons, including relative economic success in the form of continued growth, low interest rates, strong population growth, and high foreign demand, in the face of limited supply.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.18.25%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.18.25%20AM.png" alt="">
Some of these factor are cyclical, such as low interest rates, while others are structural. A key structural factor is limited housing supply. The supply of well-located housing has been limited by planning regulations and poor urban infrastructure. As a result, Australia has very low rates of urban density despite being a largely empty continent (Chart 4). Although there has been a ramp up in residential construction in recent years, in the largest city, Sydney, there is still not enough being built to meet demand (see Downunder Digest: Apartment building boom is nearing its end, 10 January 2017).
It’s the distribution of debt that matters the most
If the overall high level of household debt is driven by fundamentals, then what’s the worry? Part of the concern is that debt has been climbing recently, and that the rise has been driven by investors, rather than owner-occupiers (Chart 5). Again, even this is not worrisome, as long as the new borrowers are expected to be able to continue to service the debt. Thus it is the distribution of debt that matters the most, a point we have made before (see Downunder Digest: Australia’s rising household debt: should we worry?, 22 April 2016). The challenge is that there is considerable uncertainty about the distribution of debt and that this uncertainty rises when growth in debt is driven by new borrowers.
In Australia’s case, the key cross-sectional survey from 2014 shows quite favourable trends. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.19.28%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.19.28%20AM.png" alt="">
The survey shows that the bulk of the household debt is held by high-income earners, with 74% of the debt held by the top 40% of income earners. The survey also shows that most of Australia’s highly-indebted households (those with debt-to-income ratios in the top 10th percentile of debt holders) are also high-income earners (Chart 6).
Australia’s financial regulatory environment is also strong. All mortgages are full recourse and there is no sub-prime lending. Australians also have an incentive to pay down their mortgages ahead of schedule, as they cannot deduct the expenses associated with their owner-occupied housing, such as mortgage interest, against their other taxable income. As a result, the average mortgage holder is around 21⁄2 years ahead on their mortgage payments (when offset accounts and redraw facilities are included). This means that the average borrower has a significant buffer on which to draw in the event of job loss or some other negative income shock.
So what is the concern? First, the information on the distribution of debt is from 2014 and we know that household debt has risen since then. We do not know much about the distribution of the new debt, although we do know that the bulk of it has been for property investors. On the positive side, historically, investors have been less likely to default on mortgages than first home buyers as investors tend to have equity in an owner-occupied property, and tend to be older and higher-income households with a loan repayment history. On the negative side, we do not know much about the new investors in recent years, although we know that the prudential regulator has been tightening its settings since late 2014 to prevent an excessive build-up of risk.
Second, although the average mortgage holder has a significant buffer, it is not the average borrower that typically defaults. At the riskier end of the spectrum of borrowers there is evidence of mortgage holders with only slim buffers against a negative income shock. For example, in a recent speech (4 May 2017), the RBA Governor, Mr. Phil Lowe, referred to data on securitised loans which showed that about one-third of borrowers only have a one-month buffer.
However, in that same speech Governor Lowe relayed that the RBA’s own assessment, with full access to all of the granular lending numbers, was that the risk of rising household debt levels was not to financial stability but to the macroeconomic cycle. Given that lending standards have been tightened and that risky loans are still only a small share of financial system liabilities, a large enough rise in loan defaults to shake the overall financial system is unlikely.
What happens when housing price growth slows?
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.20.23%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.20.23%20AM.png" alt="">
The RBA’s concern is that, when housing price and household credit growth slow down, this could exacerbate the economic cycle. Sydney and Melbourne have had significant housing prices booms in recent years, although it has been quite concentrated to these cities (Chart 8). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.21.27%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.21.27%20AM.png" alt="">
Sydney and Melbourne housing prices have risen 77 percent and 58 percent over the past five years, while housing prices are only 14 percent higher in the rest of the nation.
The RBA’s argument is that the eventual slowdown, or fall, in housing prices and easing in the pace of household credit growth could weaken overall economic growth, particularly growth in household consumption.
While a slowdown in housing activity would, no doubt, have some effect, it may not be as large as in the past. Indeed, there is clear evidence that the recent ramp up in housing prices and household debt has had little impact on households’ willingness to borrow to consume goods and services. Unlike the early 2000s housing boom, households have not been withdrawing equity from their properties, but rather have been injecting it in recent years (Chart 9). If there has not been a significant positive wealth effect from rising housing prices and household debt, any slowdown in these factors may also have a more muted effect than in the past.
A key counter-argument is that the household saving rate has been falling in recent years, which provides some evidence of a positive wealth effect (Chart 10). That is, households may have been more willing to lower their saving out of income because their wealth has been rising.
However, the state-level numbers suggest that this story is a bit more nuanced. The biggest fall in the saving rate has occurred in Western Australia, following a sharp rise earlier. This reflects the impact of the mining boom, which boosted incomes significantly in that state prior to 2011/12 and where incomes have fallen since. Western Australian households saved when income growth was strong and have been saving less recently, in line with what a permanent income model might suggest.
However, the saving rate has not moved much in New South Wales and Victoria, where the housing markets have been booming recently. This suggests that the wealth effect has, in fact, been quite small in these states, consistent with the housing equity withdrawal numbers.
In our view, when the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne cool, which we expect to be the case this year and next, we do not expect a large negative wealth effect.
For the RBA, the idea of the overall economic cycle being exacerbated by the housing cycle is clearly a concern. In our view this concern would suggest an earlier tightening, rather than a later one, though. If the concern is not allowing the housing boom to continue too long, because the end of the boom could cause problems, the risk-averse approach is likely to be higher rates, not lower ones. 
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<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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How worrisome is Australia’s high household debt? Paul Bloxham

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While the financial position of households has been fairly resilient, vulnerabilities persist for some highly indebted households, especially those located in the resource-rich states, the recent RBA's Financial Stability Review has noted.
Household indebtedness (as measured by the ratio of debt to disposable income) has increased further, primarily due to rising levels of housing debt, although weak income growth is also contributing.
Rising indebtedness can make households more vulnerable to potential income declines and higher interest rates.
This is of most concern for households that have very high levels of debt.
Low interest rates are helping to offset the cost of servicing larger amounts of debt and hence total mortgage servicing costs remain around their recent lows (Graph 2.5).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/Graph%202.5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/Graph%202.5.jpg" alt="">
In this regard, lenders have tightened mortgage serviceability assessments in recent years to include larger interest rate buffers, which should provide some protection against the potential effects of higher interest rates.
Prepayments on mortgages increase the resilience of household balance sheets.
Aggregate mortgage buffers – balances in offset accounts and redraw facilities – are high, at around 17 per cent of outstanding loan balances or around 21⁄2 years of scheduled repayments at current interest rates.
However, these aggregate figures mask significant variation across borrowers, with available data suggesting that around one-third of borrowers have either no accrued buffer or a buffer of less than one month’s repayments.
Those with minimal buffers tend to have newer mortgages, or to be lower-income or lower-wealth households.
Weak economic conditions, and declining housing prices, continue to present challenges to the financial health of households in regions with large exposures to the mining sector.
For example, the rate of personal administrations in Western Australia increased further over the second half of 2016.
While commodity prices have increased, this seems unlikely to translate into significantly improved labour market outcomes in these regions in the near term.
If housing prices continue to decline in these locations, then banks may face additional losses on their mortgage portfolios.
Find the RBA's latest Financial Stability Review 2017 <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Households continue to have high levels of debt: RBA warns

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The aggregate household debt-to-income ratio has increased further in recent years, rising from already high levels according to RBA’s Financial Stability Review 2017.
This has raised concerns about the household sector’s resilience to unexpected declines in income or asset prices.
Debt-to-income ratios vary substantially across households; roughly 30 per cent of households owe no debt, while some other households have debt-to-income ratios that are well above the average.
One important issue for financial stability is the number and characteristics of highly indebted households.
These households are most likely to have difficulty repaying debt and sustaining consumption if their circumstances change.
If the number of highly indebted households is large, their response to adverse income shocks could amplify and propagate an economic downturn, declines in housing prices and losses at financial institutions.
This article outlines some of the characteristics of highly indebted households.
Household-level information on the distribution of debt, income and wealth is available in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, which collects data on owner-occupier mortgage debt every year and provides a detailed breakdown of total household debt every four years (most recently in 2014).
These data indicate that the share of households with very high debt-to-income ratios was little changed between 2006 and 2014 (Graph C1).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%20C1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%20C1.jpg" alt="">
In contrast, the proportion of households with more moderate debt-to- income ratios increased steadily, while the share of less indebted households declined.
However, because the latest HILDA data on total debt are for 2014, it is not possible to discern whether these trends have continued more recently.
The aggregate ratio of debt to income was overall little changed between 2006 and 2014, but has since risen.
There are several ways to classify household indebtedness.
The approach used here is to classify ‘highly indebted’ households as those with debt-to-income ratios in the top 10 per cent of indebted households in a given survey year.
Over the 10 years to 2014, most households in this group had a debt-to-income ratio above 550 per cent and as a group these households accounted for around 35–40 per cent of total household debt.
While the median debt-to-income ratio of the top 10 per cent of indebted households increased sharply from around 600 per cent to over 750 per cent between 2002 and 2006, it was little changed between 2006 and 2014.
Highly indebted households steadily became more leveraged between 2002 and 2014, with the median debt-to-asset ratio of these households rising from around 50 per cent to just under 60 per cent.
The type of debt owed by highly indebted households was different to that for less indebted households.
Less indebted households mostly had owner-occupier housing debt, while highly indebted households owed a rising share of ‘other’ property debt, most of which was investor housing debt (Graph C2).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%20C2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%20C2.jpg" alt="">
Between 2002 and 2014, the average share of highly indebted households’ total debt comprised of ‘other’ property debt increased from around 20 per cent to nearly 30 per cent.
The HILDA Survey also includes information on the repayment behaviour of households.
As might be expected, highly indebted households were less likely to be ahead of schedule on both owner-occupier debt and ‘other’ housing debt than less indebted households (Graph C3).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%20C3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%20C3.jpg" alt="">
Part of the reason is that they tended to have newer mortgage debt that had less time to amortise.
Nonetheless, the share of highly indebted households ahead of schedule on their owner-occupier debt rose between 2006 and 2014, which suggests that, like other borrowers, these households took advantage of low interest rates to pay down debt at a faster rate.
The share of highly indebted households ahead of schedule on ‘other’ property debt was lower, and increased only a little between 2006 and 2010.
This is unsurprising given the greater tax incentives to retain debt on rental properties than on owner-occupier properties.
Around one-quarter of highly indebted households were in the bottom two quintiles for income and wealth, which is a higher share than for less indebted households (Graph C4).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%20C4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%20C4.jpg" alt="">
Lower-income households tend to devote a higher share of their income to essential living expenses (leaving less income for debt servicing), while households with lower wealth may be less able to sell assets to resolve any difficulties in servicing their debt.
Nonetheless, a relatively small share of the total stock of debt owed by highly indebted households was owed by lower income or lower wealth households.
In 2014, for instance, households in the bottom two income quintiles accounted for only 12 per cent of total debt owed by highly indebted households.
Using HILDA, it is possible to track highly indebted households over time. Households that were highly indebted in a particular year tended to reduce their debt-to-income ratios substantially in subsequent years.
For instance, in 2002 households that were highly indebted had a median debt-to-income ratio of 600 per cent, yet by 2006 the median debt-to-income ratio of these particular households had fallen to below 350 per cent and their debt-to-income ratio had fallen further by 2010 (Graph C5, left panel).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%20C5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%20C5.jpg" alt="">
The HILDA Survey also includes questions on financial stress experienced by households over the previous year.
There was a broad-based decline in the share of households experiencing episodes of financial stress between 2001 and 2015 (the time span available in the HILDA Survey).
Nonetheless, households that were highly indebted in a particular year had a greater propensity to experience financial stress.
For instance, households that were highly indebted in 2002 were more likely to experience at least one incidence of financial stress in all other years compared with households that were less indebted in 2002 (Graph C5, right panel).
The result also holds true for other cohorts.
This suggests that a greater share of highly indebted households face financial difficulties and are more likely to be vulnerable to events that affect their ability to repay their debt, such as income declines or increases in interest rates.
Overall, these data highlight that highly indebted households can be more vulnerable to negative economic shocks and pose risks to financial stability.
In particular, highly indebted households are less likely to be ahead of schedule on their mortgage repayments and they are more likely to experience financial stress, hence could be more vulnerable to adverse macroeconomic shocks.
The consequent effects of this stress on the broader economy may be exacerbated by the disproportionately large share of investor housing debt owed by highly indebted households.
Heightened investor demand can contribute to the amplification of the cycles in borrowing and housing prices, particularly when this investment is highly leveraged.
Nonetheless, HILDA data also show that much of the debt held by highly indebted households is owed by households with high income and wealth, who are typically better placed to service larger amounts of debt.
Find the RBA's latest Financial Stability Review 2017 <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Household debt-to-income ratio continues to increase: RBA

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One third of mortgage owners have less than a month's buffer against financial instability, the Reserve Bank has warned.
The RBA's half-yearly financial stability review, released today, suggested a decline in investor credit could reduce consumption sharply, then trigger a downturn in the market. 
"The concern is that investors are likely to contribute to the amplification of the cycles in borrowing and housing prices, generating additional risks to the future health of the economy," the RBA said.
"Periods of rapidly rising prices can create the expectation of further price rises, drawing more households into the market, increasing the willingness to pay more for a given property, and leading to an overall increase in household indebtedness."
The central bank warned elevated mortgage debt, especially among investors, would see pain felt across the broader economy if high debt, falling house prices, and rising unemployment combined.
It added the banks are well braced for a downturn should it come.
“The risks associated with strong investor credit growth and increased household indebtedness are primarily macroeconomic in nature,” the RBA said.
The RBA was confident that the banks are well capitalised and would ride out an economic downturn.
“Australian banks have continued to reduce exposures to low-return assets and are building more resilient liquidity structures,” it said.
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Home borrowers with less than a month in reserve, so Reserve Bank steps up property warnings

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Housing markets in Australia and Canada have many similarities such as large increases in home prices in cities, high household debt levels and strong investor interest in property, says RBA Governor Philip Lowe. 
He put his views across at the recent Australia-Canada Leadership Forum, saying, “We are both attractive places for non-residents to invest their savings. We both have growing populations. And we both have had to deal with very large increases in housing prices in some of our cities. With all this in common, it is not surprising that we find much to talk about and experiences to share.” 
The 13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey ranked Sydney as the second least affordable housing market behind Hong Kong. Canada’s Vancouver was ranked third.  
Sydney’s “median multiple”, or the median house price divided by the median household income is 12.2 while Vancouver had a score of 11.8.
Other major Australian cities such as Melbourne, Adelaide and Canada’s Toronto too are not too far behind in unaffordability.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/23/RBAHousePriceGrowth.png" alt="">
He also drew similarities on high household debt to income ratio, saying, “The increase in overall housing prices in both our countries has gone hand in hand with a further pick-up in household indebtedness (Graph 7). 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/23/RBADebttoIncome.png" alt="">
“In both countries the ratio of household debt to income is at a record high, although the low level of interest rates means that the debt-servicing burdens are not that high at the moment.”
Another commonality was addressing the supply side of the housing market equation, with low investment in infrastructure contributing to high prices. 
“Another characteristic that we have in common is that at a time of strong demand from both residents and non-residents, there are challenges on the supply side,” Lowe said.
“I understand that zoning is an issue in Canada, just as in Australia. In some parts of Australia, there has also been underinvestment in transport infrastructure, which has limited the supply of well-located land at a time when demand for such land has been growing quickly. The result is higher prices.”
He said both countries had large differences across the various sub-markets.  
“The strength in housing markets in our major cities contrasts with marked weakness in the mining regions following the end of the mining investment boom (Graph 6).”
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/23/RBAHousePriceCity.png" alt="" style="font-size: 12.16px;">
 
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