One of North Sydney's best-known commercial buildings could become hundreds of new homes, with insurance giant Zurich Australia lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to transform 5 Blue Street into a mixed-use residential development above North Sydney Station.

Rather than demolishing the existing building and starting again, Zurich is proposing an adaptive reuse project that would convert the landmark office building into a 15-level residential development delivering 62 apartments, 86 affordable co-living dwellings, activated retail and significant upgrades to the Blue Street Plaza.

The proposal reflects a growing trend of commercial property owners repositioning ageing office assets into residential housing as Sydney grapples with housing supply shortages and changing workplace demand.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bba7d12-06dc-4375-aad7-238c94b21ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.42.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NJl5oLAEBDGuPmY3RnyliKODjMc8lvRh" />

Located directly above North Sydney Metro and train station, the 3,051 sqm site occupies one of the most strategically positioned parcels of land on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Designed by fjcstudio, the proposal seeks to retain and adapt much of the existing structure while creating a contemporary residential address that better connects with the public domain surrounding North Sydney Station.

The application proposes two basement levels, ground floor retail, affordable co-living accommodation across the podium levels, and apartments above, while preserving and enhancing the publicly accessible Blue Street Plaza.

Rather than pursuing maximum apartment numbers, Zurich has opted for a housing mix heavily weighted towards larger owner-occupier residences.

The proposal includes 62 build-to-sell apartments comprising 12 one-bedroom, 19 two-bedroom, 29 three-bedroom apartments and two premium penthouses. It also incorporates 86 affordable co-living dwellings, which would be managed in perpetuity by a Community Housing Provider.

That balance between traditional apartments and affordable housing reflects the NSW Government's push to increase housing diversity around major transport infrastructure.

The proposal has been lodged concurrently with a rezoning application, with Zurich arguing the site is ideally positioned to support additional housing given its immediate proximity to public transport, employment and services.

"The proposal aims to respond to the housing challenges facing Sydney through the delivery of diverse housing types in a highly accessible location," the design report by fjcstudio states. It also seeks to improve pedestrian amenity through upgrades to Blue Street Plaza while creating a high-performing residential building that responds to the surrounding context.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36082e15-c636-4481-bb68-5a5f6443fe39" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.41.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5P6VD.fvmqjQfIG3TWWMRXxQWiQBjeFB" />

Rather than replacing the commercial building, fjcstudio has developed a design that works with the existing structural framework above the rail corridor, an approach that significantly reduces demolition while allowing the site to be repositioned as a mixed-use residential precinct.

The existing structural constraints have informed much of the building's design, including its relationship with Blue Street and surrounding public spaces.

The building has been designed as a slender tower rising above a clearly defined podium, with vertically expressed façades intended to reduce the perceived bulk while reinforcing North Sydney's emerging skyline.

According to fjcstudio, the architectural language responds directly to the surrounding commercial towers while maintaining a finer grain expression more closely aligned with the neighbouring Lavender Bay streetscape.

The tower incorporates articulated façade elements, landscaped podium edges and recessed upper levels to soften its appearance and improve pedestrian amenity below.

A significant component of the proposal is the revitalisation of Blue Street Plaza.

The existing public space has long served as one of the primary pedestrian connections between North Sydney Station, Greenwood Plaza and Blue Street, yet its role is expected to become even more important following the opening of Sydney Metro.

Zurich's proposal seeks to strengthen that role by improving landscaping, introducing new retail frontages, enhancing pedestrian permeability and creating more active edges throughout the day and evening.

Ground floor retail would wrap the plaza, while separate residential and co-living entries have been designed to improve wayfinding without reducing street activation.

Landscape design has been integrated throughout the podium and public realm, softening what is currently one of the most heavily urbanised parts of North Sydney.

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fjcstudio has carefully oriented apartments towards Sydney Harbour and the CBD while using privacy blades and articulated façades to minimise overlooking between neighbouring buildings.

Large framed openings along the western elevation maximise harbour outlooks, while the eastern apartments have been angled towards the south-east to improve privacy from neighbouring development.

The project forms part of the continuing transformation of North Sydney from a predominantly commercial CBD into a genuine mixed-use city centre.

Since the completion of Victoria Cross Metro Station, developers have increasingly shifted their attention towards residential projects capable of leveraging the area's unparalleled transport connectivity.

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FiveX recently lodged plans for a 61-storey, 490-apartment tower that would become one of the tallest residential buildings in North Sydney if approved.

Aqualand continues to expand its Lower North Shore presence following the completion of AURA on Walker Street and its recent St Leonards and Roseville proposals.

Developers are also progressing projects throughout Walker Street, Miller Street and the Victoria Cross precinct as demand for well-located owner-occupier apartments continues to strengthen.

Joel Robinson

First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station

Busy developer Aqualand Prestige has formally taken the next step in its expansion across Sydney's Lower North Shore, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for its long-held Archer Street site in Chatswood.

The application covers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/51-55-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">51-55 Archer Street</a>, a 1,767 sqm amalgamated site on the eastern edge of the Chatswood CBD, where the developer is seeking approval for a 45-level mixed-use tower delivering 114 apartments, including a significant affordable housing component, alongside retail, commercial space and six basement levels of parking.

The SSDA marks the latest milestone for a project Aqualand has been quietly progressing over the past two years. The developer first secured the site for its Aqualand Prestige platform before undertaking an alternative design excellence process with PTW Architects, ultimately avoiding a formal design competition through the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The proposal has evolved considerably from Aqualand's original concept. The revised scheme has been designed around larger owner-occupier product, with an unusually high proportion of three and four-bedroom apartments, targeting the more affluent buyer profile, and downsizer, emerging across the North Shore.

<img alt="Archer St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0171204c-5811-41b5-9b09-2335d1b7c3d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%208.52.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6YTuxfq.puZo7k2wbfgemcO5K3QfXYGQ" />

The 114-apartment mix comprises six studios, 27 one-bedroom apartments, 18 two-bedroom apartments, 50 three-bedroom residences and 13 four-bedroom homes. A quarter of the building will be dedicated to affordable housing, well above the mandated 15 per cent&nbsp;

PTW has structured the building vertically, with affordable housing across levels one to six, premium apartments through levels seven to 31, duplex skyhomes on klevels 32 to 43, a penthouse on level 44, and a rooftop plant level above. Six basement levels will provide resident parking and servicing.

The tower is proposed to reach approximately 154 metres, placing it among a growing collection of residential high-rises transforming Chatswood's skyline.

Rather than competing purely on height, PTW says the design has been driven by creating a slimmer tower capable of delivering significantly larger apartments.

"The primary objective of this project was to create a distinctive building that stands out from the recently approved or built structures in the Chatswood area," the design report states, noting the structural efficiency allows greater investment into apartment quality and resident amenity.

Residents would have access to more than 450 sqm of communal open space including landscaped gardens, swimming pool, rooftop entertaining areas, fitness spaces, community gardens, children's play areas and barbecue facilities.

A major focus of the design has been the public domain.

The ground plane has been opened up through landscaped terraces inspired by Willoughby's sandstone ridges, with native planting, public seating, artwork, retail activation and a series of gathering spaces intended to soften what has traditionally been a hard commercial streetscape.

The landscape strategy references Blue Gum forests once common throughout the area, while incorporating Indigenous storytelling, public art and lighting installations to strengthen the connection to Country.

Chatswood has been one of Sydney's busiest apartment markets over the past 12 months, with a steady pipeline of both new project launches and fresh development applications.

Hyecorp recently launched Celine, a 122-apartment development just along Archer Street, while Changfa and Huirong Group are progressing The Anderson, an 84-apartment project on Anderson Street.

Develotek recently secured approval for a 101-apartment tower on Pacific Highway, while Tian An LFD received the green light for Hammond Greens, its apartment development on the edge of the Chatswood Bowling Club.

Commercial property developer FiveX is also making its move into the residential market. Last month it lodged plans for a 61-storey tower with 490 apartments, which, if approved, would become one of the tallest residential buildings in Chatswood.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-targets-chatswood-skyline-with-61-storey-tower-after-north-sydney-plans">First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans</a>

Aqualand is also expanding its development pipeline following the launch of its luxury residential brand, Aqualand Prestige. The developer has delivered a string of high-end apartment projects across Sydney's affluent suburbs over the past decade, most recently AURA by Aqualand on Walker Street in North Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292863]

It has since quietly assembled its next wave of projects.

Earlier this year Aqualand launched Boronia in Roseville, a boutique 111-apartment development on Larkin Street. The project is one of the first significant apartment developments to launch in the suburb ahead of what is expected to become one of Sydney's most active new housing precincts under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, which allow greater density around train stations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152095 project_image_fid=373685]

The developer has also lodged plans for a two-tower, 413-apartment development on Herbert Street in nearby St Leonards, further strengthening its presence across the Lower North Shore.

Beyond that, Aqualand remains behind the final stage of Barangaroo, where plans will deliver a five-hectare mixed-use precinct comprising new homes, retail, hospitality and community facilities, alongside a new Metro entrance and more than two hectares of public open space, completing the Barangaroo precinct.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/central-barangaroo-development-takes-big-step-with-concept-proposal-approval">Central Barangaroo development takes big step with concept proposal approval</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-aqualand-joins-st-leonards-apartment-party">First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party</a> 
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First look: Aqualand pushes ahead with Chatswood apartment tower as SSDA lodged for Archer Street

Mass timber is becoming an increasingly popular construction material in apartment developments, but Adelaide developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> is taking the approach a step further.

At its new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flowe-bowden-18-gibson-street-bowden-sa-5007">Flowe Bowden</a> development, the exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) structure isn't just about reducing the building's environmental footprint. It also forms the foundation of a broader wellness strategy, influencing everything from indoor air quality and natural materials to the way residents move through and experience the building.

The 115-apartment mixed-use development, designed by Melbourne-based architecture practice Fieldwork, will occupy a prominent island site opposite Bowden Village Reserve, combining one, two and three-bedroom apartments with retail and a dedicated wellness destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375528]

Wellness isn't confined to a gym or shared resident facility at Flowe. Instead, Fieldwork embedded the concept into the building itself.

The development has been split into two residential wings connected by a naturally ventilated central breezeway, replacing traditional enclosed corridors with open-air walkways that improve natural light, encourage cross ventilation and create more opportunities for neighbourly interaction.

"Rather than treating wellness as something that only happens on the ground floor, our response integrates it throughout the building, which led us to ask what it really means to design a healthy building," Fieldwork Director Quino Holland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375531]

The building's architecture also reflects Bowden's industrial heritage. The lower podium references the area's historic brick and sandstone buildings, while the upper levels transition to exposed CLT, allowing the timber structure to become a defining feature throughout the apartments and shared spaces.

The use of mass timber sits alongside a range of sustainability initiatives, including a fully electric, gas-free design, rooftop solar and a targeted 5 Star Green Star rating.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375524]

Inside the residences, the focus remains on natural, durable materials. Blackbutt engineered timber flooring, exposed CLT ceilings, porcelain surfaces and warm timber joinery create a calming interior palette, while low-VOC finishes and responsibly sourced materials have been selected to improve indoor air quality.

Kitchens have been designed as the centrepiece of each apartment, featuring porcelain island benchtops, timber-look cabinetry and brushed steel tapware, with layouts that maximise natural light and ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375530]

The more traditional interpretation of wellness comes in the form of Level Eleven, a two-storey wellness club spanning the ground floor, mezzanine and first floor.

The facility will include a gym, yoga and reformer Pilates studios, Finnish and infrared saunas, magnesium hot and cold plunge pools, and dedicated recovery spaces. Unlike many residential wellness facilities, Level Eleven will also operate commercially, allowing the broader Bowden community to access the venue while giving residents exclusive membership benefits.

The ground floor has also been designed around everyday living. A café overlooking Bowden Village Reserve will activate the street frontage, while a bike workshop with tool storage, co-working space and dog wash has been incorporated to support daily routines and encourage interaction between residents.

"Flowe brings together my two biggest passions, creating places and creating healthier lives," Otello founder Daniel Harris said.

"We wanted to create something Adelaide hasn't seen before, a genuinely healthy building, where the way you live is lifted without even trying."

Flowe is positioned directly opposite Bowden Village Reserve and within walking distance of Bowden Railway Station and the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, placing future residents just minutes from the Adelaide CBD while remaining connected to one of the city's most established urban renewal precincts.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152022]

Otello launches wellness-focused Flowe Bowden with Adelaide-first mass timber apartment design

Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

Household Debt

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

The evolution of household sector risks: RBA's Michele Bullock

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
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<div>There was a flurry of excitement back in January when previously reported 2017 figures implied that Australia's household debt pile had temporarily nudged against twice disposable income. </div>
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<div>However, the headline number was subsequently revised down.</div>
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<div>The latest ratios from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) show household debt now sitting at at 1.9x disposable income.</div>
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<div>Or 190.13 per cent as at March 2018, to use a bit of false precision, up from 183.51 per cent a year earlier. </div>
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<div>Click here <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jg6DW-0Q4mU/WzqepI3WnUI/AAAAAAAAq2g/IgMCJx3uRN4KTafsk-RgZdhKL9lqNlKiACLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jg6DW-0Q4mU/WzqepI3WnUI/AAAAAAAAq2g/IgMCJx3uRN4KTafsk-RgZdhKL9lqNlKiACLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1310"></div>
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<div>There's a lot of debate about what this debt ratio should or shouldn't be.</div>
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<div>It will probably remain higher than was previously normal given the structure of Australia's population and immigration profile, with policy generally taking a keener regard of interest payments and serviceability. </div>
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<div>Although this is a revised series high, the rate of increase has slowed somewhat (while the gross figure also doesn't account for the record mortgage buffers and use of offset accounts racked up through this cycle).</div>
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<div>Moreover, given the precipitous drop in both the stock and flow of interest-only mortgages the ratio is likely to peak relatively soon as income growth also moves beyond the nadir. </div>
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<div>Anecdotally lenders are making it very difficult for brokers and borrowers to see loans written at the present time, which I believe will see the seasonally adjusted monthly value of investment loans pushed down to around $10 billion by the middle of the year, from nearly $15 billion at the 2015 peak.</div>
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<div>Money growth is now at its lowest level in 26 years, and investor credit growth is at a record low of just 2 per cent, even before accounting for headcount growth and inflation. </div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Household debt higher over 12 months to March

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly consumer sentiment jumped 6.5 points (5.6%) to 21-week high of 123.0 points.
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment index rose by 0.3% to 102.1 in June. The index is above its long-term average of 101.5. A reading above 100 denotes optimism.
In the latest quarterly survey 22.5% of respondents thought the ‘wisest use of savings’ was to pay down debt.
In the Reserve Bank Governor speech entitled “Productivity, wages and prosperity” the Governor highlighted evidence of a growing “skills shortage” in Australia.
The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses.
What does it all mean?
When you weigh all the ‘big picture’ influences, Aussie consumers have little to be despondent about. The economy has completed 26 years of uninterrupted economic growth and the pace of annual growth now tops 3%. But inflation is contained, interest rates are at generational lows, unemployment is below the long-term average and sharemarket returns are up more than 10% on a year ago. The main worry is the high price of petrol and the fact that Aussie consumers and travellers would probably like the Aussie dollar a little higher than where it is currently.
Rising home prices didn’t drive consumer sentiment higher in the past few years and the rebalancing probably won’t lead to weaker consumer confidence. Overall, consumers tend to keep everything in perspective. In most capital cities, home prices have posted solid gains over the past five years.
Roy Morgan believes that the early start to winter clearance sales by department stores and chains may have also been a factor in lifting confidence last week.
While consumers are confident, they also remain conservative. Almost a quarter of consumers surveyed thought the wisest use of new savings was to pay down debt – the second highest response behind leaving the money in the bank. Almost 12% thought real estate was the best investment with around 9% opting for shares.
The Reserve Bank Governor has continued to indicate that the next move in interest rates will be up, but the move is “still looks to be some time away”. There needs to be a lift in inflation and wages before the Board is confident to lift rates.
The Reserve Bank Governor has highlighted growing evidence of a “skills shortage” in Australia. Governor Lowe believes this adds to the case that higher wages and prices are in prospect. However he stresses that this will be a gradual process.
The Reserve Bank Governor said the design of the tax system was important for future productivity. He didn’t elaborate on the point – perhaps he should have.
What do the figures show?
Weekly consumer confidence
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly consumer sentiment jumped 6.5 points (5.6%) to 21-week high of 123.0 points. All five components rose in the latest week.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/13/consumer1.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge.</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/13/consumer1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/6/13/consumer1.jpg" alt=""> </a>
Monthly consumer confidence
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment index rose by 0.3% to 102.1 in June. The index is above its long-term average of 101.5. A reading above 100 denotes optimism. The survey was conducted from June 4-10.
The current conditions index rose by 2.4%, but the expectations index fell by 1.0%.
Three of the five the components of the index increased in March:
- The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago rose by 4.5%;
- The estimate of family finances over the next year rose by 2.8%;
- Economic conditions over the next 12 months fell by 1.0%;
- Economic conditions over the next 5 years fell by 3.1%;
- The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item rose by 1.0%.
Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? The index rose by 4.5% in June is up by 16.3% from a year ago. And house price expectations fell by 7.3% and is down by 10.2% on a year ago.
Unemployment expectations: Unemployment expectations rose by 5.7% in June, but are down by 9.6% over the year.
Wisest place for savings: On the question of the ‘wisest place for savings’, banks (27.7%) led the way from paying down debt (22.5%). Only 11.6% of respondents selected real estate and 8.6% nominated shares. The proportion of consumers opting to put money in superannuation (6.8%) was the second highest in a decade. Only 4.6% of people said they would prefer to spend any extra savings. Interestingly the proportion of consumers favouring cash management trusts (3.3%) was at a 12-year high.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/13/debt3.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/6/13/debt3.jpg" alt=""> 
Reserve Bank Governor Speech
“The national accounts provided confirmation that the Australian economy is moving in the right direction. If this continues to be the case, it is likely that the next move in interest rates will be up, not down. It is, however, important to remember that the environment in which interest rates are increasing is also likely to be one in which people's incomes are growing more quickly than they are now. This will help.”
“One area that we continue to watch carefully is consumption growth. Over the year, household consumption rose by 2.9%. This is a reasonable outcome, although growth in the March quarter was on the soft side.”....”we are paying close attention to household finances.”
“While we can't be definitive about what constitutes full employment, most conventional estimates for Australia are that it means an unemployment rate of around 5%....It is possible, though, that we could do better than this, especially if we approach the 5% mark at a steady pace, rather than too quickly.”
The Governor has identified lower wage growth in the mining sector, increase in labour force participation, labour force underutilisation, and the fact that benefits of new technologies are accruing unevenly across the community as some of the factors explaining lower growth of wages.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/13/wage-growth.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge.</a>
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/6/13/wage-growth.jpg" alt="">
“some pick-up in wages growth would be a welcome development. It would help deliver a rate of inflation consistent with the target, it would help with the debt situation and it would add to our sense of shared prosperity.... In my judgement, a return, over time, to a world where wage increases started with a 3 rather than a 2 is both possible and desirable.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the Index of Consumer Sentiment each month. According to Melbourne Institute: “The survey of consumer sentiment was first undertaken in 1973 and was conducted on a quarterly basis until 1976, a six-weekly basis from 1976 to 1986, and has been conducted monthly ever since.” Confident consumers may be more inclined to spend, especially on major items.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Aussies remain optimistic. When you weigh up all the influences, it is easy to see why. More confident consumers are more likely to spend – positive for retailers. Rising employment, improved job security and stable interest rates represent a heady mix, giving shoppers the ammunition to embrace the mid-year sales.
CommSec doesn’t expect a change in official interest rates until early 2019. But the area to watch is the job market and especially survey evidence of skills shortages, leading to higher wages.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Confident consumers still keen to pay down debt: CommSec

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
While the global economy is seeing its fastest growth in years and the US Federal Reserve has increased rates five times since December 2015 and is on track for more hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has now left interest rates on hold for a record 21 months in a row.
The Australian economy is in a very different position to the US. While the RBA continues to expect that the next move in rates is most likely to be up, and we tend to agree, we now don’t see a hike until sometime in 2020. And the next move being a cut cannot be ruled out. This note looks at the reasons and what it means for mortgage rates, the $A and investors.
Five reasons why rates will be on hold into 2020
We have been looking for a rate hike in early 2019, but have now pushed that out to 2020 for the following reasons:
• First, growth is likely to remain below RBA expectations. A bunch of factors will help keep the economy growing: the drag on growth from falling mining investment is largely over; non-mining investment is rising; infrastructure investment is booming; and net exports should add to growth helped by strong global conditions.
However, against this housing construction is slowing and consumer spending is constrained with downside risks around slow wages growth, high debt levels and falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne.
Personal tax cuts likely to be tabled in the Budget will help keep the consumer going but are unlikely to offset all the drags. So while growth will likely improve from the 2.4% pace seen last year, it is likely to be to between 2.5% and 3%, below RBA expectations for a pick up to 3.25%.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/3/AMP%201.jpg" alt="">
• Second, wages growth and inflation are likely to remain low as growth is unlikely to be strong enough to eat into significant spare capacity in the Australian economy.
Some say Australian rates just follow those in the US but there has been a big divergence in recent years.
In 2009 while the Fed left rates near zero the RBA started raising rates only to start cutting them from 2011. And while the Fed started hiking rates in 2015 we continued cutting them in 2016.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/3/AMP%202.jpg" alt="">
There is good reason for the RBA to lag the Fed. Labour market underutilisation (see next chart) at 8% in the US is about as low as it ever gets whereas in Australia its around 14%.
If wages growth is only just starting to pick up in the US despite a much tighter labour market it’s no surprise that it will take much longer in Australia.
Continuing weak wages growth along with excess capacity and high levels of competition in goods markets will keep underlying inflation around the low end of the RBA’s 2-3% target for a lengthy period yet.
• Third, bank lending standards are going through yet another round of tightening as the household debt boom comes to an end, doing the RBA’s work for it.
Now it relates to policies and practices around borrowers’ income, expenses and total debt levels.
This has been driven by APRA which is shifting away from blunter constraints on lending to certain categories of borrowers (such as the 10% speed limit on credit growth to property investors) and is receiving added impetus now.
This will particularly hit lower income borrowers and high home price to income markets like Sydney and Melbourne.
Tougher checking of income and expenses and constraints in terms of the amount of loans going to high total debt to income borrowers will likely lead to a slowing in credit growth in the months ahead.
While a credit crunch is unlikely its hard to reliably predict the impact of tighter lending standards.
• Finally, house prices are slowing led by falling prices in Sydney and Melbourne with more weakness likely. APRA measures to constrain investor and interest only borrowers have worked.
These measures, combined with poor affordability, rising unit supply, falling expectations for price growth and the end of FOMO (fear of missing out) are pushing prices down.
The latest round of tighter lending standards will add to this, as will any move to lower immigration levels (and curtail negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount were there to be change in government).
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/3/AMP%203.jpg" alt="">
Capital cities other than Sydney and Melbourne face a much better outlook as they did not see the same boom in recent years.
However, we see prices in Sydney and Melbourne falling another 5% this year, another 5% next year and with further slight falls in 2020.
We are running around levels for price growth and auction clearance rates that in the past have been associated with the start of interest rate cutting cycles (in September 2008 and November 2011 – see the previous chart), not rate hikes!
The risks of a sharper fall in prices if investors lose faith, homeowners decide to reduce high debt levels and if the shift from interest only to principle and interest for many borrowers over the next few years creates problems needs to be allowed for. Raising rates when prices are falling will accentuate these risks.
As a result of these considerations, we have pushed our timing regarding the start of interest rate increases into 2020.
Of course, the risk here is that by 2020 the US economy may be weakening making it hard for the RBA to then start considering rate hikes. And of course, if the declines in home prices turn out to be deeper the next move could end up being a cut.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/3/AMP%204.jpg" alt=""> Won’t mortgage rates rise anyway?
Since the time of the GFC “out of cycle” changes in bank mortgage rates have been common.
However, the main driver of significant changes in mortgage rates remains what the RBA does with the cash rate – see the next chart.
It cut from 2008 and mortgage rates fell. It hiked from October 2009 and mortgage rates rose. It cut from November 2011 and so mortgage rates fell.
This makes sense as the banks get around 65% of their funding from bank deposits the main driver of which is the cash rate.
However, the remaining 35% can cause some variation as will regulatory changes which saw higher rates for investors and interest only borrowers recently.
There are two main pressures at present. The first is a rise in money market funding costs in the US and Australia of around 0.3 to 0.4%.
Given that only 10-15% of bank funding comes from this source its unlikely to have much impact. And the banks are unlikely to pass on the extra costs to owner occupiers on traditional loans given the Royal Commission, but banks could raise rates for investors and interest only borrowers.
Higher US bond yields could also place some pressure on bank funding costs but again this is likely to be modest, and probably unlikely to result in higher rates for owner occupiers on traditional loans.
The main thing for traditional borrowers to watch is the cash rate. If we are right, such borrowers will see pretty stable mortgage rates out to 2020.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/3/AMP%205.jpg" alt=""> What about the Australian dollar?
With the RBA likely on hold and the Fed set to keep hiking the interest rate gap between Australia and the US will go further into negative territory.
Historically, this means a fall in the value of the Australian dollar. The $A appears to be starting to break below the rising trend channel that’s been in place since 2015 and we see more downside to around $US0.70. A fall to below $US0.50 as we saw in 2001 is unlikely as commodity prices are likely to remain much stronger than they were then.
Implications for investors
First, bank deposits are likely to continue providing poor returns for investors for a while yet.
Second, as a result assets that are well diversified and provide decent income flow remain worthy of consideration. This includes unlisted commercial property and infrastructure along with Australian shares which continue to offer much higher income yields compared to bank deposits.
Third, Australian bonds are likely to outperform global bonds which are dominated by the US as US bond yields rise (on the back of Fed tightening) relative to Australian yields (which will be constrained by on hold RBA cash rates).
Finally, with the $A likely to fall further there is reason to keep a decent exposure to global assets on an unhedged basis.
Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Interest rates on hold until 2020: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
There's so much more commentary around than there used to be that I should probably direct a bit more attention to trying to blog about things that don't get a whole lot of coverage elsewhere.
Here are a four things that sprang to mind last week. 
Narrative change
Firstly, it looks to be as though household debt might feasibly peak at around 1.9x annual household disposable income. 
It was a front page splash a little while back when UBS reported that Australia's household debt to disposable income ratio was shockingly high at 2x and projected that it would balloon all the way out to 2.05x.
Then again it seems almost everything UBS reports about Australian housing is front page news these days.
In the event it turned out that not only was this not to be the case, the actual ratio was in fact just 1.88x.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirmed a misaollocation of household debt in its data, which in turns flows through to the derived ratios. 
Interest-only mortgage lending also really began to plummet in the September 2017 quarter and continued to do so thereafter, so in my best estimates the debt ratio won't get anywhere near 2x. 
You'd think this might get a bit more airtime than it has after all the preceding hullabaloo, but debt being revised lower isn't much of an attention-grabbing headline. 
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Tw2MA69_Ygc/WsIXCBirZ0I/AAAAAAAApOY/T9fT3kwqhy4Rj4eLSMklIbNELYHVz-hiwCLcBGAs/s1600/HW4.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Tw2MA69_Ygc/WsIXCBirZ0I/AAAAAAAApOY/T9fT3kwqhy4Rj4eLSMklIbNELYHVz-hiwCLcBGAs/s640/HW4.jpg" width="640" height="404" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1316"></a>
Secondly, last week the ABS reported its Household Finance &amp; Wealth statistics for the December 2017 quarter, which showed household wealth soaring to $10.2 trillion (this did get some great coverage from Commsec, with its outstanding daily analysis as always). 
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dRYJJnwyNVs/WsIPr4m0F8I/AAAAAAAApN0/Z-vC01Eda78oiEvfhIZ41wCMmPgav0f_ACLcBGAs/s1600/HW2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dRYJJnwyNVs/WsIPr4m0F8I/AAAAAAAApN0/Z-vC01Eda78oiEvfhIZ41wCMmPgav0f_ACLcBGAs/s640/HW2.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1348"></a>
This put Australia's estimated average net worth per capita at more than $411,000, representing a new high with average wealth up by about $16,000 in 2017, though global stock markets perhaps look set to take a hit in early 2018. 
Many commentators believe Australia is lacking in potential drivers of growth, yet we're sitting on a greater average household wealth than any other country in the world bar Switzerland, so a few tweaks on the right policy levers could potentially unlock plenty of consumption. 
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tpGxTSHm-Eo/WsIPr2Lvh2I/AAAAAAAApNw/g6-EKwlRy78Klopxagazv0ALnfkmeTc9gCLcBGAs/s1600/HW3.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tpGxTSHm-Eo/WsIPr2Lvh2I/AAAAAAAApNw/g6-EKwlRy78Klopxagazv0ALnfkmeTc9gCLcBGAs/s640/HW3.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1370"></a>
Debt now being repaid
Through 2017 there was a huge shift in interest-only lending from 37.5% of new housing loans at the end of 2016 to just 15.2% by the final quarter of 2017. 
While you have to make a few assumptions to work out exactly what might happen next, it seems quite possible that the household debt ratio could soon begin to fall, from the already-revised lower level. 
A recent stock market release from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) noted that more than a quarter of its interest-only loans will roll off this year, with some existing borrowers voluntarily opting to switch to principal and interest mortgages for the cheaper rates. 
Thirdly, then, while there has been a lot of focus on BBSW rates this week, partly of a result of switching to cheaper mortgage rates the derived household interest payable to income ratio was actually lower than a year earlier by the end of 2017 at just 10.2%. 
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fKWVWJnwm4M/WsIPrxlvEmI/AAAAAAAApNs/FTRSLbDXC_AB6QvMXO_oDSzrklTIcYu4gCLcBGAs/s1600/HW1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fKWVWJnwm4M/WsIPrxlvEmI/AAAAAAAApNs/FTRSLbDXC_AB6QvMXO_oDSzrklTIcYu4gCLcBGAs/s640/HW1.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1370"></a>&lt;
Another factor which might help to push the household debt to income ratio lower by the end of this year is that average earnings are now <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/best-earnings-growth-since-2014-led-by" target="_blank">rising again at the fastest pace since 2014</a>.
Greater Sydney, which now has an <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/sydney-unemployment-rate-continues-to" target="_blank">annual average unemployment rate of just 4.5%</a>, is leading the way in terms of the earnings recovery. 
The cost of living has an impact on the ability of households to pay down debt and consume, of course, but today's monthly inflation gauge recorded a very modest +0.1% increase, and that followed a -0.1% decrease in the preceding month. 
There's been plenty of talk about rising living costs as a result of supply shocks, but as more households shift their focus to paying down debt it seems mighty hard to visualise core inflation getting anywhere near to the top of the target 2-3% band over the next few years.
In any event, if the money supply is any worthwhile precursor at all to inflationary pressures, the growth in M3 hit its lowest levels in a quarter of a century at the last count. 
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mDTqh8AN0Y8/WsIcRA6AoaI/AAAAAAAApOo/PRn-x-w4K-QxTi-cPnvwB0YeADHonNfJgCLcBGAs/s1600/HW5.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mDTqh8AN0Y8/WsIcRA6AoaI/AAAAAAAApOo/PRn-x-w4K-QxTi-cPnvwB0YeADHonNfJgCLcBGAs/s640/HW5.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1371"></a>
Another factor which might help to push the household debt to income ratio lower by the end of this year is that average earnings are now <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/best-earnings-growth-since-2014-led-by" target="_blank">rising again at the fastest pace since 2014</a>.
Greater Sydney, which now has an <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/sydney-unemployment-rate-continues-to" target="_blank">annual average unemployment rate of just 4.5%</a>, is leading the way in terms of the earnings recovery. 
The cost of living has an impact on the ability of households to pay down debt and consume, of course, but today's monthly inflation gauge recorded a very modest +0.1% increase, and that followed a -0.1% decrease in the preceding month. 
There's been plenty of talk about rising living costs as a result of supply shocks, but as more households shift their focus to paying down debt it seems mighty hard to visualise core inflation getting anywhere near to the top of the target 2-3% band over the next few years.
In any event, if the money supply is any worthwhile precursor at all to inflationary pressures, the growth in M3 hit its lowest levels in a quarter of a century at the last count. 
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The narrative around household debt is changing: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVER
If Australia has an Achille’s heal it’s the high and still rising level of household debt that has gone hand in hand with the surge in house prices relative to incomes.
Whereas several comparable countries have seen their household debt to income ratios pull back a bit since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), this has not been the case in Australia.
Some worry Australians are unsustainably stretched, and it is only a matter of time before it blows up, bringing the economy down at the same time. Particularly now that global interest rates are starting to rise. This note looks at the main issues. 
Australia - from the bottom to the top in debt stakes 
The chart below shows the level of household debt (mortgage, credit card and personal debt) relative to annual household disposable income for major countries. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/14/HOUSEHOLD%201.jpg" alt="">
While rising household debt has been a global phenomenon, debt levels in Australia have gone from the bottom of the pack to near the top.
In 1990, there was on average $70 of household debt for every $100 of average household income after tax. Today, it is nearly $200 of debt (not allowing for offset accounts) for every $100 of after tax income. 
Why has debt gone up so much in Australia? 
The increase in debt reflects both economic and attitudinal changes. Memories of wars and economic depression have faded and with the last recession ending nearly 27 years ago, debt seems less risky. Furthermore, modern society encourages instant gratification as opposed to saving for what you want.
Lower interest rates have made debt seem more affordable and increased competition amongst financial providers has made it more available. So, each successive generation since the Baby Boomers through to Millennials have been progressively more relaxed about taking on debt than earlier generations. 
It’s not quite as bad as it looks 
There are several reasons why the rise in household debt may not be quite as bad as it looks: 
<ul>
<li>Firstly, higher debt partly reflects a rational adjustment to lower rates and greater credit availability via competition. </li>
<li>Secondly, household debt has been rising since credit was first invented. It is unclear what a “safe” level is. This is complicated because income is a flow and debt is a stock which is arguably best measured against the stock of assets or wealth. </li>
<li>The rise in the stock of debt levels has been matched by a rise in total household wealth in Australia. Thanks to a surge in the value of houses and a rise in financial wealth, we are far richer. Wealth rose 9.5% last year to a new record. The value of average household wealth has gone from five times average annual after tax household income in 1990 to 9.5 times today. <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/14/HOUSEHOLD%202.jpg" alt="" style="font-size: 12.16px;">
</li>
</ul>
So, while the average level of household debt for each man, woman and child in Australia has increased from $11,837 in 1990 to $93,943 now, this has been swamped by an increase in average wealth per person from $86,376 to $475,569. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/14/HOUSEHOLD%203.jpg" alt="">
As a result, Australians’ household balance sheets, as measured by net wealth (assets less debt), are healthy.
Despite a fall in net wealth relative to income through and after the GFC as shares and home prices fell, net wealth has increased substantially over the last 30 years and is in the middle of the pack relative to comparable countries.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/14/HOUSEHOLD%204.jpg" alt=""> 
<ul>
<li>Fourthly, Australians are not having major problems servicing their loans. According to the Reserve Bankís Financial Stability Review non-performing loans are low and Census and Household Expenditure Survey data shows that mortgage stress has been falling. Of course, this may reflect low mortgage rates with interest costs as a share of income running a third below its 2008 high. </li>
</ul>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/14/HOUSEHOLD%205.jpg" alt="">
<ul>
<li>Fifthly, debt is concentrated in higher income households who have a higher capacity to service it. This is particularly the case for investment property loans.</li>
<li>Sixthly, a disproportionate share of the rise in housing debt over the last 20 years owes to investment property loans. As servicing investment loans is helped by tax breaks the debt burden is not even as onerous.</li>
<li>Finally, lending standards have not deteriorated to the same degree in Australia as they did in the US prior to the GFC where loans were given to NINJAs borrowers with no income, no job and no assets. </li>
</ul>
What are the risks? 
None of this is to say the rise in household debt is without risk. Not only has household debt relative to income in Australia risen to the top end of comparable countries but so too has the level gearing (ie the ratio of debt to wealth or assets). 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/14/HOUSEHOLD%206.jpg" alt="">
It certainly increases households’ vulnerability to changing economic conditions. There are several threats:
<ol>
<li>Higher interest rates – the rise in debt means moves in interest rates are three times as potent compared to say 25 years ago. Just a 2% rise in interest rates will take interest payments as a share of household income back to where they were just prior to the GFC (and which led to a fall in consumer spending). However, the RBA is well aware of the rise in sensitivities flowing from higher debt and so knows that when the time comes to eventually start raising rates (maybe later this year) it simply won’t have to raise rates anywhere near as much as in the past to have a given impact in say controlling spending and inflation. And so, it’s likely to be very cautious in raising rates (and is very unlikely to need to raise rates by anything like 2%). 
</li>
<li>Rising unemployment – high debt levels add to the risk that if the economy falls into recession, rising unemployment will create debt-servicing problems. However, it is hard to see unemployment rising sharply anytime soon.  
</li>
<li>Deflation – high debt levels could become a problem if the global and local economies slip into deflation. Falling prices increase the real value of debt, which could cause debtors to cut back spending and sell assets, risking a vicious spiral. However, the risk of deflation has been receding.  
</li>
<li>A sharp collapse in home prices – by undermining the collateral for much household debt – could cause severe damage. Fortunately, it is hard to see the trigger for a major collapse in house prices, ie, much higher interest rates or unemployment. And full recourse loans provide a disincentive to just walk away from the home and mortgage unlike in parts of the US during the GFC.  
</li>
<li>A change in attitudes against debt – households could take fright at their high debt levels (maybe after a bout of weakness in home prices or when rates start to rise) and seek to cut them by cutting their spending. Of course, if lots of people do this at same time it will just result in slower economic growth. At present the risk is low but its worth keeping an eye on with Sydney and Melbourne property prices now falling. But high household debt levels are likely to be a constraint on consumer spending. </li>
</ol>
Conclusion 
While the surge in household debt has left Australian households vulnerable to anything which threatens their ability to service their debts or significantly undermines the value of houses, the trigger for major problems remains hard to see. However, household discomfort at their high debt levels poses a degree of uncertainty over the outlook for consumer spending should households decide to reduce their debt levels. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australian's love affair with household debt - how big is the risk? Shane Oliver

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Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres told a Senate committee yesterday that he is worried some home loan borrowers have not properly considered the impact of rising interest rates.
He suggests these borrowers might be wrong to assume future wage growth will help retire their borrowings.
Low interest rates are "making high debt levels affordable and that won't always be the case, and that's at the heart of what we are thinking about," he advised.
He's urged bankers to exercise caution because there "a lot of things that seem at extremes".
"Household debt levels are very high relative to household income in particular…and is still on an upward trajectory," Mr Byres said.
"Interest rates are at historically low levels and household income growth is actually relatively subdued, so the idea that people will pay their debs off in the future just because their income will grow strongly is not an assumption you can necessarily make."
He told the senate committee APRA continued to work to reinforce sound lending standards.
"The measures we’ve taken appear to be having a positive impact with strengthened serviceability assessments, moderating investor loan growth and a reduction in high loan-to-valuation lending, and our most recent benchmark for interest only lending to remain below 30 per cent of total new lending looks like it has been comfortably achieved overall."
Mr Byres said on Monday the household debt-to-income ratio (DTI) would need to be "constrained" before lending limits on banks will be lifted.
He reiterated the DTI ratio was important because it shows the ability of a customer to pay back all their debts, not just a particular loan.
He suggested the DTI will be improved once banks adopt 'positive' credit reporting, overcoming a current "blindspot" of banks not being able to see their customers' full financial picture.
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Given bank blindspot, APRA's Wayne Byres again warns households on the prospect of rate rises

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Each quarter the Reserve Bank (RBA) publishes household finances data which look at the ratio of household debts and assets to disposable income. The latest data shows households are becoming more indebted at the same time as the value of their assets are increasing.
According to the RBA, the ratio of household debt to disposable income was recorded at 193.7% at the end of June 2017.  The ratio sits at a record high having increased by 2.0% over the quarter and by 3.9% over the year.  Unsurprisingly, most of this debt is housing related; the ratio of housing debt to disposable income is recorded at 136.4% having increased by 1.4% over the quarter and 3.9% over the year.  
The first chart highlights how much household and housing debt has increased over time relative to disposable incomes.  It is also noticeable that since the financial crisis the rate of escalation has slowed.  Further data from the RBA reveals that of the 136.4% ratio of housing debt to disposable income, 103.2% is held by owner occupiers with the remaining 33.2% held by investors.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage1.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdandhousingdebttodisposableincome" width="570" height="272">
The second chart details the ratio of household and housing assets to disposable income.  At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household assets to disposable income was recorded at 935.6% and the ratio of housing assets to disposable income was 516.5%, both of which were record highs.  Over the past year household assets and housing assets have increased by 6.6% and 7.8% respectively, well in excess of the increase in household and housing debt. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage2.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdnadhousingassesttodisposableincome" width="570" height="281">
By comparing the ratios of assets and debt the RBA also produces ratios of household and housing debt to assets.  The data reiterates that although debt levels are high, at this stage that debt is well supported by assets which are valued substantially higher.  Over recent years the ratios of household and housing debt to assets has actually been falling.  In June 2017, the ratio of household debt to assets was recorded at 20.7% and the ratio of housing debt to assets sat at 26.4%.  
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage3.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdandhousingdebttoassets" width="570" height="283">
A big contributor to the declining ratio of debt to assets over recent years has been the ongoing fall in interest rates to their current lows.  The RBA publishes ratios of interest payments to disposable income for household and housing debt.  The fourth chart highlights that households are paying significantly less interest currently than they were when interest rates were much higher.  At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household interest repayments to disposable income was 8.7% and for housing it was 7.1%.  Lower interest rates also mean that where there is a debt, debtors have the ability (if they choose) to maintain previous repayments which in turn means additional debt is repaid as interest rates fall.  
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage4.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdandhousinginteretrepaymentstodisposableincome" width="570" height="281">
The data highlights that Australian households are heavily indebted, largely due to housing.  While debt levels are high, the value of household and housing assets are, at this stage, considerably greater than the level of debt.  Of course, if household and housing asset values begin to fall in the future, the accompanying debt may not fall at the same rate and that remains the main concern with the ongoing increase in household and housing debt.  Although Australia survived the financial crisis with much less damage than most other countries, it is noticeable how there was a fairly sharp rise in the ratio of household and housing debts to assets over that period.  A more sustained downturn could potentially see a much greater increase in these ratios as asset values fall but the debt against these assets remain.  
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
To read the original article <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/household-debts-and-assets-hit-record-highs#.Wd6d5xOCyuV" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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Household debt and assets reach record highs: Cameron Kusher

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Household finance data released by the Reserve Bank (RBA) each quarter looks at the ratios of household debts and assets to disposable income. The latest RBA update shows that while households debt is growing, asset wealth is simultaneously increasing. 
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According to the RBA, the ratio of household debt to disposable income was recorded at 193.7% at the end of June 2017 and now sits at a record-high having increased by 2.0% over the quarter and by 3.9% over the year.
According to CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher it was not surprising to see that most of this debt is housing related; the ratio of housing debt to disposable income is recorded at 136.4% having increased by 1.4% over the quarter and 3.9% over the year.
Kusher said, “Clearly, household and housing debt has increased over time relative to disposable incomes. Of note is that since the financial crisis, the rate of escalation has slowed.”
Further data from the RBA reveals that of the 136.4% ratio of housing debt to disposable income, 103.2% is held by owner occupiers with the remaining 33.2% held by investors.
At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household assets to disposable income was recorded at 935.6% and the ratio of housing assets to disposable income was 516.5%, both of which were record highs. Over the past year household assets and housing assets have increased by 6.6% and 7.8% respectively, well in excess of the increase in household and housing debt.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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By comparing the ratios of assets and debt the RBA also produces ratios of household and housing debt to assets. Mr Kusher said, “The data reiterates that although debt levels are high, at this stage debt is well supported by assets which are valued substantially higher.”
Over recent years the ratios of household and housing debt to assets has actually been falling. In June 2017, the ratio of household debt to assets was recorded at 20.7% and the ratio of housing debt to assets sat at 26.4%.
According to Kusher, a big contributor to the declining ratio of debt to assets over recent years has been the ongoing fall in interest rates to their current lows. At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household interest repayments to disposable income was 8.7% and for housing it was 7.1%. Lower interest rates also mean that where there is a debt, debtors have the ability (if they choose) to maintain previous repayments which in turn means additional debt is repaid as interest rates fall.
He said, “The latest household finance data from the RBA highlights that Australian households are heavily indebted, largely due to housing. While debt levels are high, the value of household and housing assets are, at this stage, considerably greater than the level of debt.”
“Of course, if household and housing asset values begin to fall in the future, the accompanying debt may not fall at the same rate and that remains the main concern with the ongoing increase in household and housing debt.
“Although Australia survived the financial crisis with much less damage than many other countries, of note was the fairly sharp rise in the ratio of household and housing debts to assets over that period. A more sustained downturn could potentially see a much greater increase in these ratios as asset values fall but the debt against these assets remain,” Mr Kusher said. 
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Household debt growing slower than asset wealth as both hit record highs

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Michele Bullock, the RBA assistant governor, says the central bank is carefully monitoring the high levels of household debt fuelled by by rising house prices and low interest rates and regulators are looking to mitigate some of that high-risk lending areas through prudent steps.
Speaking at "Where to from here?", a panel discussion hosted by Lander &amp; Rogers and Westpac, Bullock said the core focus of the RBA was financial stability.
She made her point by addressing the issue of the resilience of banks and the resilience of households.
Bullock said APRA's prudent steps such as putting a "speed limit" on lending to investors had a definite effect on prices but that the housing market had started to rise again this year and further measures had to be taken such as capping interest-only loans at 30 percent.
She spoke about the increased oversight of APRA in monitoring the risks that banks were taking on. The purpose of these measures was "to bolster the lending quality of the banks so that the assets they had in these mortgages were well secured and lending was prudent,” she said.
Earlier this year, Bullock had said that the RBA was "prepared to do more if needed,” to check any risk from the housing market to the economy.
Back in 2014, lending to property investors was rising “very sharply” and this was an environment where house prices were rising… in Sydney and Melbourne particular, prices were rising about 20 percent annually” which was viewed as a systemic risk by the regulatory bodies.
She said it was possibly exacerbating demand, particularly for new apartments, and “all banks were increasing their exposure to housing” which meant that “if the market turned down, all banks would be affected”.
She pointed out that a substantial portion of lending was interest-only loans which was “a riskier type of lending because peopler aren’t reducing their loan-to-value ratios”.
In such a scenario, regulators had to act and said that no more than 30 percent of bank loans could be IO loans.
“Investors might be introducing more risk by exacerbating cycles in house prices, so if investors are chasing capital gains, they might be spurred on by rising house prices and then if any slowdown occurred that could affect sentiment and they could do the same on the downside,” she said. 
“It’s not their home, so they’re not going to be desperate to hang on to it, so if house prices decline, they might just get rid of it.”
Bullock said the risk from a property market decline would not only affect investors, but also owner occupiers. For owner occupiers the risk was because many were sitting on high debt, if prices fell, the value of their debt would be higher than the value of their property.
“House price per se isn’t the issue, it’s rather what the house price growth might be reflecting in behaviours and introducing risks in the sorts of debt and sorts of behaviours that people are taking on," said Bullock.
She said many households may have stretched themselves to get on the property ladder, while at the same time incomes weren't rising quickly.
“So you’ve got rising debt, rising quite quickly because house prices are rising so people are having to take on more debt but their incomes aren’t rising as quickly, so the debt-to-income ratio is actually rising,” which was a source of worry for the RBA.
On the bright side, though debt servicing was being supported by low interest rates at the moment but the question was "what happens if interest rates start to rise in these circumstances?”
She said that improved lending standards introduced by APRA such as asking banks to put in interest rate buffers…"so banks are assessing serviceability not only on the current interest rate people are paying but with an interest rate with a buffer in it, so about 7 percent as opposed to about 4 percent" was a confidence-building measure in the system.
"This would mean that households would have an increased resilience to increase in interest rates."
 Bullock also said that lots of households have buffers, such as offset accounts, redraw facilities, so they’ve “got a little bit of flex over how much they’re paying”.
"Also, the fact though average debt is high, a lot of debt is held by high income households, so that also gives us a little bit of confidence," but at the same time, high levels of debt does leave households vulnerable to shocks.
Bullock said that when interest rates do rise in Australia, they’re likely to impact consumption in a different sort of way, so this is something that the RBA will have to take into account.
 
 
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