<p>A full-scale Sky Homes prototype apartment for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/zeste-at-the-orchards-norwest-104-fairway-drive-norwest-nsw-2153">Zeste</a> has been opened by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a>, offering buyers a look at the final residential release within The Orchards masterplan in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/norwest-nsw-2153">Norwest</a>.</p>

<p>The prototype launch coincides with buyer demand for larger apartment living continuing across Sydney’s Hills District.</p>

<p>David Lee, Sales Manager, Apartment &amp; Mixed-Use Developments at Sekisui House Australia said it was evident from the preceding four stages at The Orchards that a large number of buyers were local owner occupiers or downsizers specifically looking for oversized apartments with additional living spaces.</p>

<p>“The majority of buyers prefer to touch, feel and physically sight a full-scale completed apartment, rather than imagining the living spaces from floor plans," Lee says.</p>

<p>"The prototype apartment provides greater clarity and buyer confidence. We expect this will increase sales momentum for Zeste and the Sky Homes in particular.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=351878]</p>

<p>Positioned within Stage 5’s Zeste project, the Sky Homes form part of the final opportunity to purchase within the award-winning master-planned community, which will ultimately deliver approximately 1,300 apartments.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, Zeste comprises two residential buildings, Essence and Eden, providing 209 apartments surrounded by extensive landscaping, resort-style amenities and community spaces.</p>

<p>Ben Pomroy, Principal at Rothelowman said Zeste explores a reinvention of the traditional house, in the orchard, synthesising the nostalgic story of the orchard homestead of yesteryear with a contemporary aesthetic inspired by the landscape.</p>

<p>“Natural light and ventilation are key to the design, contributing to a higher quality of life at the human scale. Across all Rothelowman projects, our ethos of ‘a generous eye for life’ drives our consideration of the human experience as the central point of focus of our design process.”</p>

<p>Pomroy says a&nbsp;notable design element is the cathedral glass light boxes incorporated in the joinery, inspired by the idea of wandering the orchard homestead with a lantern in hand, something familiar and nostalgic.</p>

<p>"We took this narrative and gave it a contemporary twist that is both beautiful and functional, creating unique features that unify the kitchen and bathrooms design.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=351874]</p>

<p>In addition to the two residential buildings, Zeste comprises a single-story community amenity pavilion nestled in the landscape between Essence and Eden.</p>

<p>“The communal pavilion is a distinctive feature designed to foster a deep sense of community, with nature at its heart," Pomroy added.</p>

<p>"Whether it is watching the football grand final or hosting a family BBQ, the pavilion is designed as a place where residents can create memorable moments with friends, family and neighbours.</p>

<p>Since launching Essence, the first building within Zeste, buyer demand has remained strong with more than 30 per cent of residences already sold. Sky Homes have accounted for nearly 40 per cent of all sales achieved since launch.</p>

<p>“Purchasers are responding positively to the oversized layouts, diverse apartment configurations and the vast range of community facilities that will be available at completion,”David Lee noted.</p>

<p>Zeste Sky Homes represent approximately 35 per cent of the entire Stage 5 offering and are available across both Essence and the yet-to-launch Eden building. Prices for the Sky Homes range from $1,135,000 with one car space through to $1,500,000 for two car spaces.</p>

<p>Apartments across the broader Zeste release start from approximately $715,000, with generous floorplans ranging from 59 to 144sqm. Select residences also feature integrated ‘Max’ spaces, designed to function as flexible areas for home offices, children’s playrooms or additional storage.</p>

<p>Zeste also continues Sekisui House Australia’s sustainability partnership with Altogether Group, delivering integrated water, power and data services alongside passive design initiatives including cross-ventilation, landscaping and water features.</p>

<p>Early purchasers are currently able to access a selection of premium upgrade options, with VIP buyers receiving one complimentary upgrade package. A 2.5 per cent deposit is available for a short time.</p>

<p>Sekisui recently commenced its pre-construction phase. They are expecting an early 2028 completion of Zeste.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150510]</p>


Joel Robinson

Zeste Sky Homes prototype opens as buyer demand surges for oversized apartment living

<p>Having recently announced its entry into the booming Gold Coast new apartment market with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aere-chevron-island-18-20-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Aere Chevron Island</a>, developer Martello™ is offering generous stamp duty savings for buyers before June 30.</p>

<p>Martello™ says the incentive creates a more accessible entry into premium apartment living.</p>

<p>"While incentives in property are nothing new, today’s stamp duty contributions arrive at a particularly important moment," the developer says.</p>

<p>"Buyers are not only seeking quality homes and strong locations; they are also looking for smarter financial entry points. Reducing or offsetting stamp duty can represent tens of thousands of dollars in savings - funds that can instead be directed toward furnishing a home, reducing mortgage pressure, or simply providing peace of mind during the transition into ownership."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=367517]</p>

<p>Aere is one of the more boutique new developments on Chevron Island, with just 33 apartments across 18 storeys on Mawarra Street</p>

<p data-end="695" data-start="463">The developer has placed a strong emphasis on wellness, briefing architecture firm Raunik Design to embed this philosophy into the project.</p>

<p data-end="1094" data-start="697"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/martello">Martello™</a>&nbsp;has positioned Aere as a continuation of its human-centric development approach, with a focus extending beyond amenity to the fundamentals of layout, natural light, and spatial planning.</p>

<p data-end="1094" data-start="697">[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=368446]</p>

<p data-end="1094" data-start="697">To bring a heightened level of confidence to the project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/martello">Martello™</a>&nbsp;has already appointed Promax Construction to build the tower. They are expected to start construction in the coming months.</p>

<p>Martello™ says that in any market cycle, confidence matters.</p>

<p>"Buyers who may have been waiting on the sidelines are now reassessing their timing as developers and vendors introduce meaningful incentives designed to support decision-making. For owner-occupiers, it creates an opportunity to secure a premium residence with reduced upfront costs. For investors, it can improve the overall acquisition equation at a time when rental demand remains exceptionally strong across many key markets."</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=367507]</p>

<p>Aere offers a mix of two-, three-, and four-bedroom apartments, the latter of which occupy half a flor. These layouts prioritise separation between living and sleeping zones, along with increased privacy and storage, features more commonly associated with detached housing than traditional apartment product.</p>

<p data-end="2059" data-start="1790">Aere’s private resident amenity spaces centre on wellness. A rooftop level will incorporate a heated swimming pool, sauna and spa, alongside a residents’ lounge, dining areas and barbecue spaces, while additional shared facilities throughout the building include a gym and yoga area.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=367515]</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>"What we are seeing now is a market that rewards readiness," Martello added.</p>

<p>"Buyers who are informed, financially prepared, and willing to act decisively are finding opportunities that may not exist once conditions shift again. Incentives such as stamp duty contributions are typically limited in duration and allocation, particularly within tightly held developments where demand remains high.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><em>Offer available on selected residences at Aere Chevron Island only. Stamp duty contribution provided by the developer at settlement and cannot be exchanged for cash or combined with any other offer unless approved by the developer. Offer valid for contracts signed on or before 30 June 2026. The developer reserves the right to amend or withdraw the offer at any time without notice. Terms and conditions apply.</em></p>

<p><em>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=143932]</em></p>


Martello™ offers limited time stamp duty concessions at Aere Chevron Island

<p data-end="200" data-start="0">New development specialists Lachlan Cottee and Ben Dalgleish have unveiled their new development firm, Dalcott, following several successful projects delivered under the Pyco banner across the region.</p>

<p data-end="376" data-start="202">Pyco is currently delivering Atelier in nearby West End, Nouveau in Albion, and Onde at Kirra, its debut Gold Coast apartment development in the booming Kirra Beach precinct.</p>

<p data-end="583" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="378">Its first plans under the new Dalcott banner are in South Brisbane, which has been Brisbane’s most enquired-on suburb so far in 2026, while neighbouring West End has also continued to record strong demand.</p>

<p data-end="1091" data-start="626">The developer already has approval for an 11-storey building with 65 apartments on Browning Street, however has recently acquired the adjoining 910 sqm site at the rear, creating a combined 2,746 sqm footprint that will now allow for two 11-storey buildings with 92 large-scale apartments, a configuration Cottee and Dalgleish have focused on across their local portfolio.</p>

<p data-end="1244" data-start="1093">The project, known as <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marrone-south-brisbane-39-browning-street-south-brisbane-qld-4101">Marrone</a>, will comprise 84 three-bedroom apartments, 16 of which will include an additional multipurpose room, and just eight two-bedroom residences.</p>

<p data-end="1383" data-start="1246">DAH Architecture has led the design of Marrone, which will include more than 330 sqm of communal open space and rooftop recreation areas.</p>

<p data-end="1383" data-start="1246"><img alt="Marrone" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7eeea1a0-be23-47c8-80fb-3409428241fd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-21%20at%209.36.38%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pZW7o.tB7oJovYCRIFSxrZbMr6QdpHy." /></p>

<p data-end="1473" data-start="1385">Cottee told Apartments.com.au the project reflects a gap in Brisbane’s apartment market.</p>

<p data-end="1571" data-start="1475">"It is an area we know well with Atelier, another development which focuses on large apartments, less than 300 metres away," Cottee says.</p>

<p data-end="1824" data-start="1573">"There's limited supply of large-scale apartments of this size in a single building in Brisbane. The majority of apartments in this category are in considerably smaller buildings, on the water, and are only really accessible to the deepest of pockets.</p>

<p data-end="1953" data-start="1826">"Marrone will offer the same size and scale, but with greater amenity and at a much more realistic price point for the market."</p>

<p data-end="2256" data-start="1955">The architectural approach reflects the continued evolution of South Brisbane’s higher-density residential character. Renders show a heavily landscaped façade composition with curved balconies, textured brickwork, deep recesses, and integrated planting aimed at softening the scale of the twin towers.</p>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2258">The revised proposal builds on the design narrative established in the original scheme. In the earlier submission, Gatehouse Architects described the project as a continuation of Browning Street’s long-term urban transformation.</p>

<p data-end="2691" data-start="2488">“The proposal echoes the spirit of early developments like Watson Terrace (built in 1888), by contributing to the growth and diversification of the local population,” the original design statement noted.</p>

<p data-end="2918" data-start="2693">“Just as Watson Terrace played a role in the area’s early gentrification, this development continues that trajectory, delivering contemporary housing that addresses the evolving needs of South Brisbane’s expanding community.”</p>

<p data-end="3297" data-start="3024">The updated proposal, designed by DAH Architecture, spans a 2,746 sqm corner site with frontages to Browning and O’Connell Streets. The development will comprise two 11-storey residential buildings delivering 92 apartments, replacing the previously proposed 65-unit scheme.</p>

<p data-end="3673" data-start="3299">The apartment mix has shifted further toward larger owner-occupier residences, continuing Dalcott’s established strategy across South East Queensland. The plans include 68 three-bedroom apartments, 16 three-bedroom apartments with multipurpose rooms, and eight two-bedroom residences. Two basement levels will provide 142 car spaces, alongside bicycle parking for 115 bikes.</p>

<p data-end="3950" data-start="3675">The larger Marrone proposal arrives amid sustained redevelopment momentum across South Brisbane and the wider Kurilpa precinct, where developers are increasingly targeting owner-occupiers seeking larger apartments close to the CBD, cultural precincts, and riverfront amenity.</p>

<p data-end="4211" data-start="3952">The site sits within walking distance of South Bank, the Queensland Performing Arts Centre, Brisbane State High School, and several major transport connections, while nearby Fish Lane and West End continue to drive demand for higher-end inner-city apartments.</p>

<p data-end="4458" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="4213">Cottee is expecting Marrone to launch around August with Realm Projects.</p>


Exclusive: Dalcott doubles down on South Brisbane with twin-tower Marrone plans

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-2" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:9894702f-d5ab-4186-930d-8f794421c3c4-0" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:9894702f-d5ab-4186-930d-8f794421c3c4-0" dir="auto">
<p data-end="437" data-start="182"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/doma-group">DOMA Group</a> has unveiled plans for Newcastle Quay, a major waterfront precinct set to reshape Newcastle’s harbourfront and further cement the city’s evolution into one of Australia’s fastest-growing urban destinations.</p>

<p data-end="707" data-start="439">Positioned on a prominent site within the Honeysuckle Precinct, Newcastle Quay will span both sides of Honeysuckle Drive, connecting directly to the Foreshore Promenade and sitting within walking distance of Newcastle Interchange.</p>

<p data-end="1068" data-start="709">The mixed-use precinct is planned to include around 1,000 apartments, more than 28,000 sqm of commercial office space, 6,000 sqm of retail, and a 180-room hotel anchored by a 500-seat conference and exhibition centre, a move expected to significantly lift Newcastle’s ability to attract major business and tourism events.</p>
</section>

<p><img alt="DOMA Group unveil Newcastle’s future with transformative Newcastle Quay Precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0642ca09-67cc-4920-8a7e-d18df9729b4e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/%3D.png?VersionId=CnDmZxQnOV5LN0ePu7jaFBXC9tPGTrWm" /></p>

<p data-end="1381" data-start="1070">The proposal builds on DOMA’s growing Newcastle pipeline, where the developer has already delivered 866 apartments and more than 19,000 sqm of commercial and retail space since entering the market in 2013. A further $2 billion pipeline is also in the works across the city.</p>

<p data-end="1756" data-start="1383">The masterplan and executive architecture are led by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, with building concepts developed alongside Stewart Architecture, Architecture AND and Curious Practice, and landscape design by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/turf-design">Turf Design Studio</a>. More than 11,000 sqm of open space is planned, including a new waterfront park known as Honeysuckle Green, upgrades to Tree of Knowledge Park, and new pedestrian and cycling links throughout the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="2022" data-start="1758">At the centre of the development will be the heritage-listed Wickham School of Arts, which DOMA plans to reposition as the civic and cultural heart of the precinct through restaurants, bars, events and public gathering spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2254" data-start="2024">The broader vision is to create a genuine day-to-night precinct, blending residential, hospitality, retail, commercial and cultural uses in a way Newcastle has yet to experience at this scale.</p>

<p data-end="2407" data-start="2256">DOMA Group Managing Director Jure Domazet said the aim was to create a precinct that becomes synonymous with Newcastle itself.</p>

<p data-end="2644" data-start="2409">“Our vision is to create a precinct that not only delivers high-quality commercial, residential, and cultural spaces, but also defines Newcastle’s waterfront for generations to come,” Domazet said.</p>

<p data-end="2752" data-start="2646">DOMA’s Chris Farrington said the project would fundamentally change how Newcastle is perceived nationally.</p>

<p data-end="2868" data-start="2754">“Newcastle Quay is more than a waterfront precinct, it is a national announcement for this city,” Farrington said.</p>

<p data-end="3111" data-start="2870">“A world-class Conference and Exhibition Centre will open Newcastle and the Hunter Region to a national and international audience for the first time, delivering something this city has long deserved.”</p>

<p data-end="3360" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="3113">The project is expected to generate more than 4,000 full-time equivalent jobs and act as a major economic driver for the Hunter region through tourism, business events, hospitality and commercial investment.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully said the final parcel of harbourfront land will be a "true mixed-use precinct destination that includes housing, hospitality and entertainment, commercial spaces, retail, economic and social outcomes."</p>


DOMA Group unveils 1,000-apartment Newcastle Quay precinct

<p data-end="262" data-start="143">ASX-listed developer Stockland is continuing to ramp up its return to the apartment market.</p>

<p data-end="451" data-start="264">In late 2024, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/stockland">Stockland</a> announced it would resume apartment development after a 13-year absence, launching with Stanton Place in Rosebery, a 144-apartment project now under construction.</p>

<p data-end="560" data-start="453">Last week, the developer unveiled plans alongside the NSW Government for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-nsw-gov-unveils-plans-for-3-300-home-waterloo-south-renewal">3,300-home precinct in Waterloo</a>.</p>

<p data-end="797" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="562">Now, Stockland has shifted its focus in St Leonards, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to replace an approved 42-storey office tower with a 52-storey residential development comprising more than 500 apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Stockland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8979095e-9072-432b-a7da-58b180cf994d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-20%20at%204.27.36%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=_jbRXYOafCSHjwsz.yQCNIymMyCj8zkF" /></p>

<p>An existing 14-storey commercial office building would make way for a 264.5-metre tower designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>. The project would deliver 538 apartments, including 30 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses at the podium and ground plane.</p>

<p>It will rise from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">601 Pacific Highway</a>, a prominent 2,844 sqm triangular site adjoining Mitchell Plaza and fronting Pacific Highway.</p>

<p>The development is being pursued under the Housing Delivery Authority pathway after Stockland’s proposal was declared State Significant Development earlier this year.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Stockland plans 52-storey mixed-use tower with 538 apartments in St Leonards" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="67f40f35-0458-47ab-80c0-a4e98a31838a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/stockland%201.png?VersionId=rxXe3njr.auuGDuiR0k42uI8Zr4K.gZA" /></p>

<p>The apartment mix includes 217 one-bedroom apartments, 191 two-bedroom apartments, 122 three-bedroom apartments, and eight four-bedroom residences. Six basement levels would accommodate 300 car spaces, bicycle parking, loading areas, and building services.</p>

<p>Bates Smart said the project has been shaped around a series of urban design principles intended to improve the pedestrian experience and respond to the evolving character of St Leonards.</p>

<p>“With a boundary length of almost 75m along Pacific Highway and 70m along Atchison Street to the north, complying simply with the LEP envelope and required setbacks would result in a very wide tower form on the skyline,” the architects noted in the Design Report.</p>

<p>“We propose breaking the tower form into two defined volumes rather than a singular form.”</p>

<p>The podium has similarly been articulated into separate forms to reduce perceived bulk and create a finer-grain response to Mitchell Plaza and Atchison Street. Retail tenancies would activate the lower levels, while commercial space is proposed across the podium floors.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Stockland plans 52-storey mixed-use tower with 538 apartments in St Leonards" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="90149990-0551-40d2-bd48-14b69a015d12" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/stockland%202.png?VersionId=MJC2KIIWFvU9FPGr3IVq09gkRN_gX3m8" /></p>

<p>The design also places a significant emphasis on communal amenity and environmental performance. Residents would have access to landscaped terraces, wellness areas, flexible workspaces, and rooftop communal facilities, while the all-electric building is targeting an average 7-star NatHERS rating. Bates Smart said the project incorporates passive design measures including natural ventilation, integrated shading, and lightweight façade systems.</p>

<p>Planning documents note the site is around 350 metres from St Leonards Station and 400 metres from the metro entrance, placing it within one of Sydney’s most connected emerging residential precincts.</p>

<p>The project arrives amid a wave of large-scale redevelopment proposals reshaping the St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline. Several nearby sites have recently been approved, lodged, or declared under the Housing Delivery Authority pathway as the precinct absorbs significant residential density uplift tied to transit-oriented development policies.</p>

<p><img alt="Stockland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7805bd7c-dfd7-4b35-8e15-ec4a8bf8e61b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-20%20at%204.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=iY12K2m2bQ6EeDnshqfZC9rbLx_oEugP" /></p>

<p>Bates Smart’s report describes St Leonards as transitioning away from its historical commercial identity toward a more mixed-use urban environment.</p>

<p>“In recent years, the character of St Leonards has started to evolve, driven by new development trends along the Pacific Highway corridor,” the report said.</p>

<p>“These projects have increasingly focused on residential accommodation, marking a shift from its purely commercial roots.”</p>

<p>Sekisui House Australia is currently selling Waterstone down near Newlands Park, in a pocket being branded "St Leonards South." Hyecorp recently completed Audrey in the same pocket.</p>


First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower

Household Debt

<html><body>
<div>The latest AMP.NATSEM Household Debt report showed that the average household debt in Australia has increased to a new high of $245,000, continuing a prolonged run-up which has seen the average debt per household increase by a factor four since 1988, up from $60,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the bulk of the rise in mortgage debt has been driven by 30 to 50 year olds, the over 65s cohort also accounts for a fair proportion of the increase in household debt, with more Australians than ever before taking liabilities into retirement.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite this, the latest Australian National Accounts implied that interest serviceability has continued to become easier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are a thousand possible ways to measure this, nine of which is satisfactory: the blue points on the chart below denote interest paid on dwellings as a percentage of total employee compensation minus income tax, while the red points show total interest paid inclusive of consumer debt (excluding unincorporated enterprises) as a percentage of gross household income.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/14/Interest.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/14/Interest.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>You could spend forever debating what should or should not be included in household income (imputed interest on dwellings, benefits receivable etc.) or backed out of gross household income (e.g. other taxes, transfers, insurance premiums etc.) but the results tend to be broadly similar. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course the results generally appear to be "too low" due to the significant number of debt free households. The important thing to note is the trend, which shows that while the mining boom was in full swing the aggregate mortgage interest repayment burden was tending towards excruciating levels by September 2008 (when the official cash rate was still as high as 7 per cent). but since that time serviceability has become relatively speaking very easy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Buffers at record highs</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has noted in its Financial Stability Review that indicators of household financial stress are presently low, with households pushing ahead on repayments to the extent that aggregate mortgage buffers - as measured by balances in offset and redraw facilities - remain at around 16 per cent of outstanding loan balances, or the equivalent of well over two years of scheduled repayments at current interest rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/14/Buffers.gif" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/14/Buffers.gif" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Loan arrears and mortage delinquencies data are also tracking at historically low levels, with favourable delinquency developments having cascaded lower since the 2008 book year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A crude comparison the aggregate interest paid to the total stock of outstanding housing credit implies that the average mortgage rate is well under 5 per cent, suggesting in turn that Australians have taken advantage of the very generous fixed rates available through 2015.</div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The outlook</span></strong><br><br><div>The first chart above shows the sensitivity of household finances, and especially mortgage repayments, to the unpredictable changes in interest rates. Mortgage repayments are on average clearly very affordable now, but may not be so if interest rates rise sharply.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The AMP.NATSEM report found that the highest typical debt repayment burdens are to be found in the outer suburbs of our capital cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If interest rates were to rise by 2.5 percentage points - essentially the equivalent of ten interest rate hikes - then the most indebted households could see mortgage repayments rise from 42 per cent of household income to a stress-inducing 58 per cent, while perhaps unsurprisingly the most indebted low income households would be the hardest hit of all.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>An increase in interest rates of 2.5 percentage points would also see repayments for the typical first homebuyer rising from 21 per cent to 30 per cent of household income, or a shade over an extra $8,000 per year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are few indications that the official cash rate is set to move materially higher any time soon, although shifts in capital requirements and funding costs may be another matter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Fragile markets</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unemployment rates have generally been trending down since January 2015, although unemployment rates in Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory are in an uptrend, and the housing market in Darwin looks exceptionally fragile.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/14/UERATE.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/14/UERATE.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Although household financial stress is currently low, it seems likely that there will be some vulnerable housing markets in 2016, which may include;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>-resources regions and markets, with the terms of trade crunch likely to result in multiple mass lay-offs to add to the winding down of capital investment;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>-suburbs and sub-regions which are experiencing extensive over-building of apartments. particularly inner city high-rise stock, and those areas with already elevated and rising vacancy rates; </div>
<div> </div>
<div>-off-the-plan developments which will be adversely impacted by APRA's tougher deposit measures; and</div>
<div> </div>
<div>-outer suburban fringe locations in Sydney which saw a massive spike in investor activity and rapid price growth in 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'd include a generic entry here for "mining towns", but many have been so utterly smashed already, leading to investor defaults and bankruptcies, since not only were prices unsustainable, so too were rents, and even tenancies. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Auctions</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's preliminary auction clearance rate rebounded a bit to 55.2 per cent this week, with outer suburban markets looking particularly dormant, The strongest auction market was a resurgent inner west, with a strong preliminary auction clearance rate of 74.6 per cent (<em>CoreLogic-RP Data</em>).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This month's Labour Force data showed that New South Wales economy has generated a seasonally adjusted +176,000 jobs over the past year, for an outrageous employment growth rate of +4.9 per cent (trend +160,000 jobs, or +4.4 per cent). The Detailed Labour Force figures, which provide more colour by city, region and industry will be released on Thursday. So stay tuned for that and more this week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Record household debt of $245,000: Pete Wargent

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<p>Each quarter the Reserve Bank (RBA) publishes household finances data which look at the ratio of household debts and assets to disposable income. The latest data shows households are becoming more indebted at the same time as the value of their assets are increasing.</p>
<p>According to the RBA, the ratio of household debt to disposable income was recorded at 193.7% at the end of June 2017.  The ratio sits at a record high having increased by 2.0% over the quarter and by 3.9% over the year.  Unsurprisingly, most of this debt is housing related; the ratio of housing debt to disposable income is recorded at 136.4% having increased by 1.4% over the quarter and 3.9% over the year.  </p>
<p>The first chart highlights how much household and housing debt has increased over time relative to disposable incomes.  It is also noticeable that since the financial crisis the rate of escalation has slowed.  Further data from the RBA reveals that of the 136.4% ratio of housing debt to disposable income, 103.2% is held by owner occupiers with the remaining 33.2% held by investors.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage1.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdandhousingdebttodisposableincome" width="570" height="272"></p>
<p>The second chart details the ratio of household and housing assets to disposable income.  At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household assets to disposable income was recorded at 935.6% and the ratio of housing assets to disposable income was 516.5%, both of which were record highs.  Over the past year household assets and housing assets have increased by 6.6% and 7.8% respectively, well in excess of the increase in household and housing debt. </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage2.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdnadhousingassesttodisposableincome" width="570" height="281"></p>
<p>By comparing the ratios of assets and debt the RBA also produces ratios of household and housing debt to assets.  The data reiterates that although debt levels are high, at this stage that debt is well supported by assets which are valued substantially higher.  Over recent years the ratios of household and housing debt to assets has actually been falling.  In June 2017, the ratio of household debt to assets was recorded at 20.7% and the ratio of housing debt to assets sat at 26.4%.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage3.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdandhousingdebttoassets" width="570" height="283"></p>
<p>A big contributor to the declining ratio of debt to assets over recent years has been the ongoing fall in interest rates to their current lows.  The RBA publishes ratios of interest payments to disposable income for household and housing debt.  The fourth chart highlights that households are paying significantly less interest currently than they were when interest rates were much higher.  At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household interest repayments to disposable income was 8.7% and for housing it was 7.1%.  Lower interest rates also mean that where there is a debt, debtors have the ability (if they choose) to maintain previous repayments which in turn means additional debt is repaid as interest rates fall.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage4.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdandhousinginteretrepaymentstodisposableincome" width="570" height="281"></p>
<p>The data highlights that Australian households are heavily indebted, largely due to housing.  While debt levels are high, the value of household and housing assets are, at this stage, considerably greater than the level of debt.  Of course, if household and housing asset values begin to fall in the future, the accompanying debt may not fall at the same rate and that remains the main concern with the ongoing increase in household and housing debt.  Although Australia survived the financial crisis with much less damage than most other countries, it is noticeable how there was a fairly sharp rise in the ratio of household and housing debts to assets over that period.  A more sustained downturn could potentially see a much greater increase in these ratios as asset values fall but the debt against these assets remain.<br> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
<p>To read the original article <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/household-debts-and-assets-hit-record-highs#.Wd6d5xOCyuV" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p>
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Household debt and assets reach record highs: Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The ABS data showed that at the end of the March quarter, household net worth was $10.243 trillion.</p>
<p>While a large figure, household wealth has now fallen for two consecutive quarters and is -0.7% lower year-on-year. The $10.243 trillion in net worth is madeup of $12.701 trillion in assets and $2.458 trillion in liabilities. The recent fall in the value of assets at a time in which liabilities have continued to rise has led to the fall in net worth.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank (RBA) analyses this data to produce a number of valuable ratios, including: debt, assets and interest payments to household disposable income.</p>
<p>These ratios highlight the impact of high levels of debt at a time in which asset values have fallen but the debt has not fallen at the same pace.</p>
<p>We’ve seen the ratio of household debt to disposable income continue to climb over the quarter, reaching a new historic high of 189.7%. The rise in household debt relative to incomes has certainly slowed; however, it continues to edge higher.</p>
<p>The ratio of housing debt to disposable income is recorded at 140.1% and was unchanged over the quarter. While it was unchanged over the quarter, it remains at an historic high level, highlighting that households remain very sensitive to the cost of mortgage debt.</p>
<p>Turning to the ratio of household assets to disposable income, it was recorded at 927.0% in March 2019. The ratio peaked at 961.7% in December 2017 and has trended lower since. The ratio of housing assets to disposable income peaked at 529.6% in December 2017 and as at March 2019; it was recorded at 483.5%.</p>
<p>The reduction in housing values has coincided with the period in which the ratio of household and housing assets has fallen which is no wonder when you consider housing accounts for around half of the value of household assets. </p>
<p>It's also important to consider is that while the value of assets are falling there has been no reduction in the ratios of debt to income which highlights that asset depreciation has been greater than debt reduction. As a result, the ratio of household debts to assets is at 20.5%, the highest it has been since December 2014 and the ratio of housing debt to assets is at 29.0%, the highest it has been since June 2013.</p>
<p>Despite the lowest interest rates since the 1960s, the ratio of interest payments to disposable income has trended higher years. As at March 2019 the ratio was recorded at 9.1% and although it has been steady for three quarters, interest payments relative to disposable income has trended higher on an annual basis</p>
<p>Furthermore, the ratio of interest payments to disposable income was last this high in September 2013. It is a similar story for the ratio of housing interest payments to disposable income, which is also trending higher, recorded at 7.6%, which is the highest ratio since June 2013.</p>
<p>With interest rates at generational lows there was perhaps, some expectation that households would use the low rates to pay off some debt however that has largely not occurred. With asset values recently falling the data shows that debt pay off has not been as rapid as the declines leading to a reduction in household wealth.</p>
<p>This data is to March 2019 and by the end of June 2019, there were some tentative signs that the declines in dwelling values were starting to level. While this means that there is likely to be a further decline in household wealth over the June quarter, it also suggests there is unlikely to be a meaningful reduction in household debt levels.</p>
<p>As such, household debt levels are likely to remain amongst the highest in the world. At the same time, the value of household assets remain substantially higher than the value of the debt. The cause for concern will be what happens if economic conditions deteriorate materially, leading to weaker labour market conditions and potentially creating some challenges around servicing such high levels of debt as unemployment rises.</p>
<p>Another medium to long-term consideration is a scenario where interest rates eventually start to rise. Households are generally able to service high levels of household debt while interest rates are at record lows, but eventually (probably not for at least several years) interest rates will rise.</p>
<p>If household debt levels remain high relative to incomes under a higher interest rate environment, the result could be weakness in household spending (as households dedicate more of their income towards servicing their debt) and potentially higher levels of financial stress amongst heavily leveraged households.</p>
<p><em>CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic</em></p>
<p><em>Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.</em></p>
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Australian Household wealth falling while debt remains: Cameron Kusher

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a flurry of excitement back in January when previously reported 2017 figures implied that Australia's household debt pile had temporarily nudged against twice disposable income. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the headline number was subsequently revised down.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest ratios from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) show household debt now sitting at at 1.9x disposable income.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Or 190.13 per cent as at March 2018, to use a bit of false precision, up from 183.51 per cent a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jg6DW-0Q4mU/WzqepI3WnUI/AAAAAAAAq2g/IgMCJx3uRN4KTafsk-RgZdhKL9lqNlKiACLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jg6DW-0Q4mU/WzqepI3WnUI/AAAAAAAAq2g/IgMCJx3uRN4KTafsk-RgZdhKL9lqNlKiACLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1310"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's a lot of debate about what this debt ratio should or shouldn't be.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It will probably remain higher than was previously normal given the structure of Australia's population and immigration profile, with policy generally taking a keener regard of interest payments and serviceability. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although this is a revised series high, the rate of increase has slowed somewhat (while the gross figure also doesn't account for the record mortgage buffers and use of offset accounts racked up through this cycle).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, given the precipitous drop in both the stock and flow of interest-only mortgages the ratio is likely to peak relatively soon as income growth also moves beyond the nadir. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anecdotally lenders are making it very difficult for brokers and borrowers to see loans written at the present time, which I believe will see the seasonally adjusted monthly value of investment loans pushed down to around $10 billion by the middle of the year, from nearly $15 billion at the 2015 peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Money growth is now at its lowest level in 26 years, and investor credit growth is at a record low of just 2 per cent, even before accounting for headcount growth and inflation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span>
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Household debt higher over 12 months to March

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<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>Household finance data released by the Reserve Bank (RBA) each quarter looks at the ratios of household debts and assets to disposable income. The latest RBA update shows that while households debt is growing, asset wealth is simultaneously increasing. </p>
<div title="Page 1">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>According to the RBA, the ratio of household debt to disposable income was recorded at 193.7% at the end of June 2017 and now sits at a record-high having increased by 2.0% over the quarter and by 3.9% over the year.</p>
<p>According to CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher it was not surprising to see that most of this debt is housing related; the ratio of housing debt to disposable income is recorded at 136.4% having increased by 1.4% over the quarter and 3.9% over the year.</p>
<p>Kusher said, “Clearly, household and housing debt has increased over time relative to disposable incomes. Of note is that since the financial crisis, the rate of escalation has slowed.”</p>
<p>Further data from the RBA reveals that of the 136.4% ratio of housing debt to disposable income, 103.2% is held by owner occupiers with the remaining 33.2% held by investors.</p>
<p>At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household assets to disposable income was recorded at 935.6% and the ratio of housing assets to disposable income was 516.5%, both of which were record highs. Over the past year household assets and housing assets have increased by 6.6% and 7.8% respectively, well in excess of the increase in household and housing debt.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p> <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher1.png" alt=""></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher2.png" alt=""></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher3.png" alt=""></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher4.png" alt=""></p>
<p>By comparing the ratios of assets and debt the RBA also produces ratios of household and housing debt to assets. Mr Kusher said, “The data reiterates that although debt levels are high, at this stage debt is well supported by assets which are valued substantially higher.”</p>
<p>Over recent years the ratios of household and housing debt to assets has actually been falling. In June 2017, the ratio of household debt to assets was recorded at 20.7% and the ratio of housing debt to assets sat at 26.4%.</p>
<p>According to Kusher, a big contributor to the declining ratio of debt to assets over recent years has been the ongoing fall in interest rates to their current lows. At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household interest repayments to disposable income was 8.7% and for housing it was 7.1%. Lower interest rates also mean that where there is a debt, debtors have the ability (if they choose) to maintain previous repayments which in turn means additional debt is repaid as interest rates fall.</p>
<p>He said, “The latest household finance data from the RBA highlights that Australian households are heavily indebted, largely due to housing. While debt levels are high, the value of household and housing assets are, at this stage, considerably greater than the level of debt.”</p>
<p>“Of course, if household and housing asset values begin to fall in the future, the accompanying debt may not fall at the same rate and that remains the main concern with the ongoing increase in household and housing debt.</p>
<p>“Although Australia survived the financial crisis with much less damage than many other countries, of note was the fairly sharp rise in the ratio of household and housing debts to assets over that period. A more sustained downturn could potentially see a much greater increase in these ratios as asset values fall but the debt against these assets remain,” Mr Kusher said. </p>
</div>
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<p> </p>
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Household debt growing slower than asset wealth as both hit record highs

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">It's like<em> deja vu </em>all over again! </p>
<div id="post-body-5346701206206902946" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The historic ratio of household debt to disposable income was once again revised down, but the trajectory remained up. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And in the end, we ended up back in the same old place, with an Aussie household debt ratio still at 1.9x disposable income. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Note that the impact of tax and rate cuts has yet to flow through fully to these figures, so behavioural patterns could change going forward. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-E1JICRVccs4/XY2p48YKbqI/AAAAAAAAx_E/iSC6SMuc62Yj4H-65nfDIT5IdyvUEI7mQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="1366"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The 'record high' headlines will naturally follow in due course, although the ratio was ostensibly about 200 per cent a couple of years ago - before previous revisions were pushed through - and the growth in housing credit has since been crunched lower (to record lows for housing investors, at zero growth). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The bulk of Australia's household debt remains concentrated in the upper two income quintiles, while net of a huge surge in prepayments the debt-to-income ratio is pretty much unchanged since 2006. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Treasurer Frydenberg was also lightning quick off the mark to highlight that the value of assets was 5x that of the debt. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile the ratio of household interest payments to disposable income continued to fall and sow sits well under 9 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This ratio is now some 33 per cent lower than at the 2008 peak, and trending lower (it was also higher in the late 1980s than it is today):</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-p9EkMGT4dH4/XY2p49HieWI/AAAAAAAAx_A/AJhLZqxNtjAwS6pUx5zeVs07A6IQAmC-ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1404"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interest rates have since fallen further in the September quarter, so further declines are in the post.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been some mortgage stress, even in spite of the household interest payments ratio being down by a third, mainly experienced in Western Australia and largely related to the forced interest-only mortgage reset.<br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kzDI0RPnsOI/XY245qcXHRI/AAAAAAAAx_k/poT5fkvt4uYJppj8l-6cjZan2M6BGJG3wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/sandp.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1422"></div>
<br>That said, S&amp;P expects arrears to fall as repayments have become easier. <br><div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></div>
</div>
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Interest repayments continue to get easier: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australian household debt levels have increased substantially over the past thirty years, with the ratio of household debt to annual disposable income rising from 68% in June 1990 to a recent peak of 188.5% in June 2019. Since June last year, the ratio has reduced slightly to 185.0%. Most of the debt held by households is housing debt, which comprises around 76% of overall household debt. Thirty years ago housing debt comprised a much smaller 46% of overall household debt.</p>
<p>The skew towards housing debt can also be seen in the latest Household Income and Wealth survey from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which showed the median value of debt held against owner occupied dwellings was $102,600, compared with a median debt level of $5,000 for student loans, $3,000 on credit cards and $3,700 on car loans. Most of Australia’s household debt accrual occurred between 1990 and 2010.</p>
<p>The ratio of household debt to income increased by 45.7 percentage points between 1990 and 2000, and by another 49.3 percentage points between 2000 and 2010. The past decade has seen growth in the ratio more than half to 21.5 percentage points, with most of that growth aligned with the property boom between late 2012 and 2017.</p>
<p>Importantly, the value of assets held against the debt has recorded a more significant increase, pushing household net worth to new record highs at the end of 2019. Residential dwellings comprise by far the largest component of household assets, totaling $6.8 trillion, or 53% of household wealth. Household debt levels are important for two reasons.</p>
<p>Heavily indebted households are generally more vulnerable to a ‘shock’ such as job loss, illness or a sharp rise in the cost of debt, which in turn has implications for financial stability. The other key area of concern relates to household spending; heavily indebted households may be more likely to save rather than spend during periods of uncertainty or economic hardship. With around 60% of Australia’s economy dependent on household consumption, a sustained drop in spending activity would have a negative impact on economic growth.</p>
<p>These risks were recently covered in detail by the RBA in a discussion paper released in May this year. The outcomes of the paper noted the risk to financial stability was likely to be relatively low due moderate loan-to-valuation ratios on residential mortgages. In separate analysis from the latest Financial Stability Review, the RBA notes that only 3% of Australian mortgages are thought to be in negative equity. The risks associated with high household debt levels weighing on consumption are more substantial, especially under a scenario where housing prices fell.</p>
<p>While household debt is high, and potentially a concern for consumption, servicing debt is at its most affordable since 1999 due to record low interest rates. The ratio of housing interest payments to household disposable income has more than halved since 2008, from a high of 13.3% to 6.4% in June 2020. With interest rates moving lower since June, it is likely the ratio has fallen even further. Another factor helping to minimise risk is the fact that asset values are substantially higher than the debt held against them.</p>
<p>The ratio of household debt to household assets was 19.4% and the ratio of housing debt to housing assets was 28.2% in June 2020, implying a remarkably large amount of equity is held within the household sector. Other factors helping to alleviate risk associated with high household debt, and potentially support a reduction in debt levels are credit policy and less consumer appetite for credit. Lending standards have improved over the past five to ten years, with a trend towards fewer loans originating with a high loan to valuation ratio and substantially fewer interest only loans.</p>
<p>9.2% of home loans were originated with a deposit of 10% or less in June this year, down from a recent peak of 22% in 2009. Similarly, interest only loans comprised almost 46% of new home loans in mid2015, but have averaged only 17% of new lending since mid-2017. Additionally, loans with a high loan to income ratio have remained low, with June data showing only 5.8% of new home loans were originated with a loan to income ratio of 6% or higher.</p>
<p>It is clear that households became more risk averse through the worst of the COVID period. National accounts data showed the household saving ratio skyrocketed to almost 20% through the June quarter, up from 2.5% in the June quarter of 2019. Given that the virus curve has flattened and consumer sentiment surged in recent months, it is likely the saving ratio will drop. Additionally, the trend in personal credit, which has been in negative monthly growth territory since late 2019, has plummeted since March.</p>
<p>Although the risks around high household debt are manageable at the moment, interest rates will eventually rise down the track.</p>
<p>As debt servicing costs move higher, a heavily indebted household sector would need to devote more of their income towards servicing debt and less to spending, which implies a medium-to-long term risk to household spending. This implies high debt levels may also stagger and slow an economic recovery. If increases in housing debt servicing costs result from higher interest rates, the exacerbated drag on spending could slow economic growth.</p>
<p>Additionally, with household debt remaining high, the sector is more exposed to unforeseen events such as job loss and illness, as well as black swan events like a pandemic or financial crisis. It is likely policy makers and regulators will be keeping watch for any signs of rising household debt or slippage in lending standards that could lead to higher household debt.</p>
<p>Higher LVR lending or higher loan to income ratios could be the trigger for a new round of macro-prudential style intervention. Recent macro-prudential interventions targeted interest only lending and growth in lending for investment housing through 2014 and 2019. Future interventions may be aimed at keeping a lid on household debt levels, and minimizing longer term risk, via firm limits on loan to valuation ratios, loan to income ratios or debt to income ratios.</p>
<p><strong>TIM LAWLESS </strong><em>is the research director Asia Pacific at CoreLogic</em></p>
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