<p data-end="252" data-start="53">The Federal Government’s sweeping changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax could trigger an unintended consequence: a surge of investor demand into the new and off the plan apartment sector.</p>

<p data-end="558" data-start="254">While Treasurer Jim Chalmers has framed the reforms as a way to improve housing affordability and rebalance the tax system, the carve-outs for newly built housing are already positioning off the plan apartments as one of the few remaining tax-effective property investment plays.</p>

<p data-end="966" data-start="560">Under the changes handed down in the Federal Budget, investors purchasing established properties after budget night will no longer be able to access negative gearing benefits. The Government will also replace the long-standing 50 per cent capital gains tax discount with a new inflation-indexation model and introduce a minimum 30 per cent tax on gains from July 2027.</p>

<p data-end="1004" data-start="968">However, there is a major exemption.</p>

<p data-end="1268" data-start="1006">Investors buying new builds, including off the plan apartments, will still be eligible for negative gearing and will be able to choose between retaining the current 50 per cent CGT discount or adopting the new indexed model.</p>

<p data-end="1348" data-start="1270">That distinction is expected to reshape investor behaviour almost immediately.</p>

<p data-end="1625" data-start="1350">For years, established housing has dominated investor purchases because of its perceived lower risk, immediate rental returns and stronger historical capital growth. But with the tax advantages now heavily skewed toward new housing supply, the economics are changing rapidly.</p>

<p data-end="1685" data-start="1627">The Federal Government has been explicit about its intent.</p>

<p data-end="1926" data-start="1687">“The housing market and tax system are broken,” Chalmers said ahead of the Budget, arguing that existing concessions were disproportionately rewarding speculation rather than supporting housing supply.</p>

<p data-end="2115" data-start="1928">The Government says the reforms are designed to encourage investment into new housing rather than established stock, a move aimed at increasing supply during a prolonged housing shortage.</p>

<p data-end="2319" data-start="2117">According to the official Budget papers, limiting negative gearing to newly built homes is intended to “better align tax incentives with housing supply objectives.”</p>

<p data-end="2471" data-start="2321">For the apartment development sector, particularly the off the plan market, the changes could become one of the strongest investor tailwinds in years.</p>

<p data-end="2790" data-start="2473">Developers across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have spent the past two years battling elevated construction costs, higher interest rates and subdued investor confidence. Many projects have struggled to secure sufficient pre-sales to commence construction, particularly in markets heavily reliant on investor demand.</p>

<p data-end="2839" data-start="2792">The Budget changes may now alter that equation.</p>

<p data-end="3036" data-start="2841">Investors seeking tax-effective property exposure will increasingly find themselves funnelled toward newly built apartments simply because established dwellings no longer offer the same benefits.</p>

<p data-end="3362" data-start="3038">Commonwealth Bank described the reforms as one of the most significant shifts to residential property investment settings in decades, noting that the package is centred around “limiting negative gearing for residential property to new builds” while replacing the existing CGT framework.</p>

<p data-end="3427" data-start="3364">That could have profound implications for the apartment sector.</p>

<p data-end="3813" data-start="3429">Off the plan apartments already hold several advantages for investors. Purchasers typically secure a property at today’s price while settlement occurs years later, allowing time for capital growth and reducing the upfront capital burden. Brand-new apartments also generally attract depreciation benefits, lower maintenance costs, and stronger appeal to renters seeking modern amenity.</p>

<p data-end="3943" data-start="3815">Now, they may also become one of the only residential property types still offering the full suite of historical tax advantages.</p>

<p data-end="4133" data-start="3945">Industry analysts expect investor demand to increasingly migrate toward projects that can clearly demonstrate strong rental demand, transport connectivity and long-term supply constraints.</p>

<p data-end="4429" data-start="4135">The shift is likely to be particularly pronounced in apartment markets already underpinned by structural undersupply, including inner Brisbane, the Gold Coast, parts of Sydney’s Lower North Shore and select Melbourne precincts where new apartment commencements have collapsed over recent years.</p>

<p data-end="4529" data-start="4431">The reforms also arrive at a time when apartment supply nationally remains critically constrained.</p>

<p data-end="4844" data-start="4531">Australia is already struggling to meet the Federal Government’s target of delivering 1.2 million new homes over five years. Construction feasibility pressures have delayed or shelved thousands of apartments across the country, particularly as building costs remain elevated and financing conditions remain tight.</p>

<p data-end="5045" data-start="4846">Critics of the Budget changes argue the reforms could reduce overall investor participation in the housing market and place upward pressure on rents by discouraging investment in established housing.</p>

<p data-end="5209" data-start="5047">Some economists estimate the measures could reduce housing supply over the longer term if overall investor appetite weakens.</p>

<p data-end="5331" data-start="5211">However, the Government is betting that redirecting investor capital into new housing supply will offset those concerns.</p>

<p data-end="5584" data-start="5333">“To continue to incentivise construction of new housing, investors building new residential properties will be able to choose either the 50 per cent CGT discount or the new arrangements,” the Budget papers stated.</p>

<p data-end="5762" data-start="5586">That wording has been closely watched by the development industry because it effectively positions new apartments as the preferred investment class within residential property.</p>

<p data-end="5840" data-start="5764">For off the plan developers, the reforms could become a powerful sales tool.</p>

<p data-end="6035" data-start="5842">Projects that have increasingly relied on owner-occupier demand may once again attract investors seeking to preserve the tax advantages still attached to newly built housing before the July 2027 changes take effect.</p>

<p data-end="6133" data-start="6037">The reforms are also expected to sharpen the divide between established and new housing markets.</p>

<p data-end="6303" data-start="6135">Rather than a broad investor retreat from property altogether, many analysts expect a redistribution of capital toward sectors still supported by Government incentives.</p>

<p data-end="6495" data-start="6305">That could create stronger demand for apartment projects in key urban growth corridors and transit-oriented precincts where population growth, migration and rental shortages remain elevated.</p>

<p data-end="6626" data-start="6497">The policy direction also aligns with the Government’s broader push toward increasing housing density in established urban areas.</p>

<p data-end="6941" data-start="6628">Across Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, planning reforms are increasingly encouraging higher-density apartment development around transport infrastructure and activity centres. By maintaining tax incentives for new housing, the Federal Government is effectively reinforcing that agenda from a taxation perspective.</p>

<p data-end="7126" data-start="6943">For apartment developers who have spent years navigating subdued investor confidence, the changes may ultimately become the catalyst that reactivates parts of the off the plan market.</p>

<p data-end="7259" data-start="7128">While the broader property sector is still digesting the long-term implications of the Budget, one thing is already becoming clear.</p>

<p data-end="7366" data-start="7261">The era of investors buying established apartments and houses primarily for tax advantages may be ending.</p>

<p data-end="7444" data-start="7368">But for off the plan apartments, the investment story may just be beginning.</p>

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Joel Robinson

Investors to flood off the plan apartment market?

<p>Adding to Chatswood’s growing skyline, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-anderson-chatswood-54-56-anderson-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">The Anderson</a> is grounded in a simple principle: apartment living in a major centre does not have to come at the expense of space and outlook.</p>

<p>Set on Anderson Street in the heart of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chatswood-nsw-2067">Chatswood</a>, the new residential tower, a collaboration between developers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/changfa-group">Changfa Group</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huirong-group">Huirong Group</a> with architecture and interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>, will introduce 122 apartments that prioritise generous proportions, considered orientation, and a strong connection to the surrounding heritage precinct.</p>

<p>The design originated from a Design Excellence Competition, where AJC proposed a building that combines suburban-style apartment scale with the density expected in a transport-rich centre. The development will include more than 1,800 square metres of retail and commercial space at street level, landscaped communal roof terraces, and a ground-floor pocket park framed by canopy trees. Together these elements aim to create a building that integrates with Chatswood’s evolving streetscape while maintaining a strong residential focus.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151353 project_image_fid=353250]</p>

<p>A key driver behind the architecture was the desire to deliver family-sized apartments rarely seen in the Chatswood market. The Anderson includes a mix of one to four-bedroom apartments, with around 35 per cent of the residences configured as three or four-bedroom homes. At the top of the building, two double-storey penthouses span approximately 200 square metres each, reinforcing the project’s emphasis on scale and long-term liveability for both downsizers and intergenerational households.</p>

<p>Orientation and outlook were central to the planning of the building. The apartments are positioned to maximise views to the north and east across Chatswood’s heritage precinct, with upper levels capturing glimpses of the Pacific Ocean. South-facing apartments gain distant views toward the Sydney CBD and Harbour Bridge, while the building’s configuration intentionally reduces western exposure at lower levels to minimise overlooking toward the nearby railway corridor.</p>

<p>The external design references the character of the surrounding conservation area without replicating it directly. A brick podium anchors the building to the street and introduces a series of architectural portals that draw inspiration from the nearby Chatswood Presbyterian Church. Above this base, the tower shifts to a lighter, more open expression defined by horizontal lines and carefully detailed balconies that balance privacy with outward views.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151353 project_image_fid=353254]</p>

<p>Toward the top of the tower, AJC introduces a distinctive lantern-like element formed by sliding screens. These screens provide both solar shading and privacy while also creating a visual marker for the building within the Chatswood skyline. The feature reinforces the architectural intent of the project, a structure that is visually refined while still responding to the practical requirements of apartment living.</p>

<p>Inside the residences, interior architecture by Hayball focuses on clear spatial flow and practical everyday use. Open-plan living areas connect directly to large balconies, extending the internal living spaces outward and allowing natural light to move deeper into the apartments. Kitchens are designed as central working spaces with premium appliances and carefully selected materials, positioned to serve both daily living and entertaining.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151353 project_image_fid=353256]</p>

<p>Bathrooms follow a similarly restrained design language, using refined fixtures and materials to create calm, functional spaces, while wardrobe areas adopt a gallery-style layout with integrated lighting and generous storage. These elements reflect a broader design approach that prioritises clarity, functionality, and durability over decorative gestures.</p>

<p>Positioned just a short walk from Chatswood Interchange, residents will have direct access to rail, metro, retail, and dining. The Metro extension allows travel from Chatswood to Martin Place in approximately 11 minutes, placing the CBD within easy reach for residents while maintaining the convenience of a walkable North Shore neighbourhood.</p>

<p>One-bedroom apartments at The Anderson start from $1,022,000.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151353]</p>


How AJC designed The Anderson to bring oversized apartment living to Chatswood

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/bridgewell-development">Bridgewell Capital</a> has lodged plans for a major mixed-use apartment development in the heart of Maroubra, seeking a significant uplift in height and density controls to deliver 120 apartments and a 120-place childcare centre near Maroubra Junction.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development application, filed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, covers a 3,270 sqm amalgamated site at 251-257 Maroubra Road and 133-135 Garden Street. The proposal includes a concurrent rezoning that would increase the maximum building height from 12 metres to 35.6 metres and lift the floor space ratio to 4.02:1.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bka-architecture">BKA Architecture</a>, the project would replace a mechanic’s workshop and several detached homes with a 10-storey residential building above four basement levels.</p>

<p>The scheme comprises 120 apartments, including 27 affordable housing units to be managed by a community housing provider for 15 years, alongside 203 basement car spaces and 92 bicycle spaces. A childcare centre occupying nearly 900 sqm of floor area would sit at ground level and be capable of accommodating 120 children and 22 staff.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Bridgewell plots 120 apartments and childcare centre in Maroubra town centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="038a0639-f9e4-4303-8fcc-d43e73fa480f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bridgewell%20pers.png?VersionId=eGBElxmNqJW.YF3JFYgHTnPgAstdyXR3" /></p>

<p>According to the Design Report, the project has been conceived as a “gateway proposal” that responds to Maroubra’s evolving urban character and its proximity to the town centre.</p>

<p>“Designed to complement the character of Maroubra’s town centre, this gateway proposal features a building scale that matches its surroundings,” the report stated.</p>

<p>“It integrates residential units above a ground-level childcare centre, fulfilling the strategic objectives of the Randwick City Council Masterplan.”</p>

<p>The apartment mix is weighted toward larger residences aimed at families and downsizers, reflecting changing demographics in the Randwick LGA and increasing demand for medium-density housing close to transport and amenity.</p>

<p>BKA Architecture said the proposal seeks to reinforce Maroubra Road as a civic spine while improving the pedestrian experience around the site through landscaping and upgraded public interfaces.</p>

<p>“The design capitalises on the following site opportunities: reinforcement of Maroubra Road as a civic spine, enhancement of pedestrian pathways and the public interface via new landscaping, and strong market demand for two and three-bedroom apartments to support families and down-sizers,” the Design Report noted.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Bridgewell plots 120 apartments and childcare centre in Maroubra town centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ee509779-3c7e-4918-b03d-761c785459d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bridgewell%20site.png?VersionId=eZC4Ruyn.C7O.Qwfr1SVeP5.ds1c5.66" /></p>

<p>The building has been designed with setbacks and articulation intended to transition between the commercial intensity of Maroubra Junction and the surrounding lower-scale residential neighbourhoods. Communal open space is proposed on level one, while upper-level apartments would secure views towards Port Botany, Maroubra Beach and Sydney’s eastern suburbs.</p>

<p>The development sits around 200 metres east of the Maroubra Junction intersection of Anzac Parade and Maroubra Road, within one of Randwick’s identified strategic centres. The site is close to Pacific Square Shopping Centre, major bus routes, schools, parks and future cycling infrastructure proposed under the Maroubra Junction Masterplan.</p>

<p>The Maroubra proposal aligns with broader NSW Government initiatives encouraging higher-density housing near established centres and transport corridors, particularly where affordable housing is incorporated.</p>

<p>Bridgewell is also working on a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/goldfields-sets-the-stage-as-quartet-milton-launches">new 55-unit project in Killara</a>.</p>


First look: Bridgewell plots 120 apartments and childcare centre in Maroubra town centre

<p>National diversified developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/goldfields-group">Goldfields</a> has launched its latest Brisbane apartment project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/quartet-milton-33-manning-street-milton-qld-4064">Quartet Milton</a>, marking its entry into the sought-after inner-city suburb just two kilometres from the CBD.</p>

<p>The circa $100 million development will rise 18 storeys and deliver 131 apartments, offering a mix of one, two-, and three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>Ideally located on Manning Street, Quartet residents will be within 300 metres of Milton Station, 500 metres from the Milton Ferry Wharf, and a short walk to Milton Markets, the iconic Park Road, as well as a range of breweries and cafés.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367993]</p>

<p>Designed by architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and brought to life by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, the building features a simple, gridded façade paired with generous glazing to enhance views, maximise aspect, and capture both sunrises and sunsets from within the apartments and their generously sized balconies.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a 1,000 sqm rooftop, curated to balance wellness and entertaining, in response to increasing demand for wellness-focused shared spaces.</p>

<p>"We've approached Quartet Milton as a complete lifestyle offering, not just apartments, but a place where the design, amenities, and location all work together in a meaningful way," says Goldfields Managing Director Lachlan Thompson.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for that sense of confidence, knowing the vision has been carefully thought through not just by us as developers, but by all our consultants appointed to bring this together, and that it will be delivered to the standard they expect."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=368000]</p>

<p>Cera Stribley Co-Founder and Managing Principal Domenic Cerantonio said the rooftop is designed to feel like a place "you'd genuinely use every day."</p>

<p>"A 25-metre pool framed by city and mountain views, wellness areas, and private dining spaces for evenings with friends create a setting designed for year-round comfort and effortless Brisbane living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367999]</p>

<p>In addition to the 25-metre pool, the rooftop will include a sauna, cold plunge, fully equipped gym, and zen gardens, all complemented by panoramic views of the city and river.</p>

<p>While the building is expected to appeal predominantly to owner-occupiers, Goldfields anticipates interest from investors seeking strong rental returns, driven by the project's design, location, and the city's projected capital growth in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367991]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/milton-qld-4064">Milton</a>, widely regarded as one of Brisbane's most desirable inner-ring suburbs due to its lifestyle offering and proximity to the CBD, has experienced a shortage of new apartment supply in recent years.</p>

<p>Goldfields is already active in the Brisbane residential market through its Ripley Valley masterplanned community, Hayfield. The 109-hectare neighbourhood is already home to more than 300 families and features a large community park.</p>

<p>Plans for the precinct include a 4 km running track, future schools, and retail and commercial amenities, all within a 35-minute drive of the Brisbane CBD.</p>

<p>Goldfields also plans to deliver a new mixed-use tower at 88 Robertson Street in Fortitude Valley, within the James Street precinct. The project will include 16,000 sqm of boutique commercial space, a level of wellness facilities, and a rooftop restaurant and event space, akin to Goldfields House in South Yarra, its flagship mixed-use development on Chapel Street, which is crowned by the Beverly Rooftop bar, one of Melbourne’s best-known venues.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108736]</p>


Goldfields sets the stage as Quartet Milton launches

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/stockland">Stockland</a> and Homes NSW have taken the next major step in the transformation of Waterloo Estate, lodging a Concept State Significant Development Application and concurrent rezoning proposal for the renewal of Waterloo South.</p>

<p>The proposal, now on public exhibition, outlines plans for around 3,300 new homes across the 12.3-hectare precinct. A minimum 30 per cent of residential gross floor area will be delivered as social housing, approximately 20 per cent as affordable housing, and a maximum 50 per cent as market housing. The redevelopment would more than quadruple the number of homes currently on the site and more than double the existing supply of social and affordable housing.</p>

<p>The renewal of Waterloo South forms the first stage of the broader Waterloo Estate transformation and is set to unfold over the next 10 to 15 years. The estate currently contains 750 social housing dwellings and 120 private homes.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Stockland and Homes NSW unveil plans for 3,300-home Waterloo South renewal" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ba2da34b-171b-4ff1-b0c7-4baf0bce97f2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Waterloo%20public.png?VersionId=S5apPKOqjPHJhk_SzCvdVPxsEBYs300o" /></p>

<p>The proposal, prepared by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a> and Beam Planning, spans 10 street blocks bounded by Cope, Raglan, George, Wellington, Gibson, Kellick, Pitt and McEvoy Streets, directly adjoining the Waterloo Metro Station precinct and within walking distance of Redfern and Green Square stations.</p>

<p>Under the masterplan, building heights would range from two to 33 storeys, delivering approximately 282,485 sqm of residential floor space alongside at least 10,000 sqm of non-residential uses and a minimum 5,000 sqm of community space. The planning framework has been specifically structured to support the mixed-tenure outcome, with the residential gross floor area capped at a maximum 50 per cent market housing allocation.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Urban Design Report describes the vision as creating “a unique and vibrant mixed-tenure housing precinct that supports the needs of the community and delivers much needed housing in response to National and State Government priorities.”&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Stockland and Homes NSW unveil plans for 3,300-home Waterloo South renewal" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6e1a6d8b-0626-4fa7-94fc-aa91c0af86dc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/waterloo%20per.png?VersionId=duyiJTFOeezTNdM22leI3SoHuqnW6ZaY" /></p>

<p>A major focus of the revised proposal has been increasing the social and affordable housing component. The Minns Government increased the affordable and public housing allocation from 35 per cent to 50 per cent after coming to office in 2023.</p>

<p>Minister for Housing and Homelessness Rose Jackson said the changes were critical to maintaining Waterloo’s social diversity.</p>

<p>“When we came to government, we immediately reviewed the plans for the Waterloo renewal and boosted the number of public and affordable homes from 35 to 50 per cent,” Jackson said.</p>

<p>“This was a crucial step to ensure Waterloo remains a welcoming place for people from all walks of life to call home now and into the future.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully said the project would reshape the precinct for generations.</p>

<p>“This concept DA brings thousands of new public, affordable and market homes on the doorstep of the Waterloo Metro station another step closer to reality,” Scully said.</p>

<p>“Importantly, alongside the new homes the plan also proposes new open space where residents and the broader community can gather, relax and play.”&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Stockland and Homes NSW unveil plans for 3,300-home Waterloo South renewal" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="867520cb-6e07-4204-885e-53793ac88066" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Waterloo%20public%20a.png?VersionId=lgSI85Q23xBLYLC9NcWKuWZY2HfP4zQ3" /></p>

<p>Stockland Managing Director and CEO Tarun Gupta said the project had been shaped around long-term liveability and community infrastructure.</p>

<p>“As delivery partner, Stockland is proud to be working with the NSW Government on the renewal of Waterloo South – a significant project with community at its heart,” Gupta said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The planning documents place strong emphasis on “Designing with Country,” recognising the site’s location on Gadigal land. The masterplan incorporates new east-west pedestrian links, activated streetscapes, rooftop communal spaces, retail frontages, and landscaped public areas intended to improve permeability and community connection throughout the estate.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposal also seeks to establish a more flexible planning framework for future detailed SSDAs, including updated provisions for educational uses, creative industries, rooftop communal areas, and active frontages. A minimum seven per cent of residential floor space will be delivered as affordable housing managed in perpetuity by community housing provider City West Housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Social Impact Assessment prepared by Urbis describes the renewal as one of Australia’s most significant public housing transformations, identifying substantial long-term positive impacts associated with housing supply, accessibility, public domain improvements, and community infrastructure.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Stockland and Homes NSW have already commenced the first stage of resident relocations, with some tenants moved into newly completed homes at Waterloo Metro Quarter and the Boronia development nearby.</p>


First look: Stockland, NSW Gov, unveils plans for 3,300-home Waterloo South renewal

Household Debt

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<div>The latest AMP.NATSEM Household Debt report showed that the average household debt in Australia has increased to a new high of $245,000, continuing a prolonged run-up which has seen the average debt per household increase by a factor four since 1988, up from $60,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the bulk of the rise in mortgage debt has been driven by 30 to 50 year olds, the over 65s cohort also accounts for a fair proportion of the increase in household debt, with more Australians than ever before taking liabilities into retirement.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite this, the latest Australian National Accounts implied that interest serviceability has continued to become easier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are a thousand possible ways to measure this, nine of which is satisfactory: the blue points on the chart below denote interest paid on dwellings as a percentage of total employee compensation minus income tax, while the red points show total interest paid inclusive of consumer debt (excluding unincorporated enterprises) as a percentage of gross household income.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/14/Interest.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/14/Interest.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>You could spend forever debating what should or should not be included in household income (imputed interest on dwellings, benefits receivable etc.) or backed out of gross household income (e.g. other taxes, transfers, insurance premiums etc.) but the results tend to be broadly similar. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course the results generally appear to be "too low" due to the significant number of debt free households. The important thing to note is the trend, which shows that while the mining boom was in full swing the aggregate mortgage interest repayment burden was tending towards excruciating levels by September 2008 (when the official cash rate was still as high as 7 per cent). but since that time serviceability has become relatively speaking very easy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Buffers at record highs</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has noted in its Financial Stability Review that indicators of household financial stress are presently low, with households pushing ahead on repayments to the extent that aggregate mortgage buffers - as measured by balances in offset and redraw facilities - remain at around 16 per cent of outstanding loan balances, or the equivalent of well over two years of scheduled repayments at current interest rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/14/Buffers.gif" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/14/Buffers.gif" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Loan arrears and mortage delinquencies data are also tracking at historically low levels, with favourable delinquency developments having cascaded lower since the 2008 book year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A crude comparison the aggregate interest paid to the total stock of outstanding housing credit implies that the average mortgage rate is well under 5 per cent, suggesting in turn that Australians have taken advantage of the very generous fixed rates available through 2015.</div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The outlook</span></strong><br><br><div>The first chart above shows the sensitivity of household finances, and especially mortgage repayments, to the unpredictable changes in interest rates. Mortgage repayments are on average clearly very affordable now, but may not be so if interest rates rise sharply.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The AMP.NATSEM report found that the highest typical debt repayment burdens are to be found in the outer suburbs of our capital cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If interest rates were to rise by 2.5 percentage points - essentially the equivalent of ten interest rate hikes - then the most indebted households could see mortgage repayments rise from 42 per cent of household income to a stress-inducing 58 per cent, while perhaps unsurprisingly the most indebted low income households would be the hardest hit of all.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>An increase in interest rates of 2.5 percentage points would also see repayments for the typical first homebuyer rising from 21 per cent to 30 per cent of household income, or a shade over an extra $8,000 per year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are few indications that the official cash rate is set to move materially higher any time soon, although shifts in capital requirements and funding costs may be another matter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Fragile markets</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unemployment rates have generally been trending down since January 2015, although unemployment rates in Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory are in an uptrend, and the housing market in Darwin looks exceptionally fragile.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/14/UERATE.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/14/UERATE.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Although household financial stress is currently low, it seems likely that there will be some vulnerable housing markets in 2016, which may include;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>-resources regions and markets, with the terms of trade crunch likely to result in multiple mass lay-offs to add to the winding down of capital investment;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>-suburbs and sub-regions which are experiencing extensive over-building of apartments. particularly inner city high-rise stock, and those areas with already elevated and rising vacancy rates; </div>
<div> </div>
<div>-off-the-plan developments which will be adversely impacted by APRA's tougher deposit measures; and</div>
<div> </div>
<div>-outer suburban fringe locations in Sydney which saw a massive spike in investor activity and rapid price growth in 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'd include a generic entry here for "mining towns", but many have been so utterly smashed already, leading to investor defaults and bankruptcies, since not only were prices unsustainable, so too were rents, and even tenancies. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Auctions</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's preliminary auction clearance rate rebounded a bit to 55.2 per cent this week, with outer suburban markets looking particularly dormant, The strongest auction market was a resurgent inner west, with a strong preliminary auction clearance rate of 74.6 per cent (<em>CoreLogic-RP Data</em>).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This month's Labour Force data showed that New South Wales economy has generated a seasonally adjusted +176,000 jobs over the past year, for an outrageous employment growth rate of +4.9 per cent (trend +160,000 jobs, or +4.4 per cent). The Detailed Labour Force figures, which provide more colour by city, region and industry will be released on Thursday. So stay tuned for that and more this week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Record household debt of $245,000: Pete Wargent

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<p>Each quarter the Reserve Bank (RBA) publishes household finances data which look at the ratio of household debts and assets to disposable income. The latest data shows households are becoming more indebted at the same time as the value of their assets are increasing.</p>
<p>According to the RBA, the ratio of household debt to disposable income was recorded at 193.7% at the end of June 2017.  The ratio sits at a record high having increased by 2.0% over the quarter and by 3.9% over the year.  Unsurprisingly, most of this debt is housing related; the ratio of housing debt to disposable income is recorded at 136.4% having increased by 1.4% over the quarter and 3.9% over the year.  </p>
<p>The first chart highlights how much household and housing debt has increased over time relative to disposable incomes.  It is also noticeable that since the financial crisis the rate of escalation has slowed.  Further data from the RBA reveals that of the 136.4% ratio of housing debt to disposable income, 103.2% is held by owner occupiers with the remaining 33.2% held by investors.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage1.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdandhousingdebttodisposableincome" width="570" height="272"></p>
<p>The second chart details the ratio of household and housing assets to disposable income.  At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household assets to disposable income was recorded at 935.6% and the ratio of housing assets to disposable income was 516.5%, both of which were record highs.  Over the past year household assets and housing assets have increased by 6.6% and 7.8% respectively, well in excess of the increase in household and housing debt. </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage2.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdnadhousingassesttodisposableincome" width="570" height="281"></p>
<p>By comparing the ratios of assets and debt the RBA also produces ratios of household and housing debt to assets.  The data reiterates that although debt levels are high, at this stage that debt is well supported by assets which are valued substantially higher.  Over recent years the ratios of household and housing debt to assets has actually been falling.  In June 2017, the ratio of household debt to assets was recorded at 20.7% and the ratio of housing debt to assets sat at 26.4%.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage3.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdandhousingdebttoassets" width="570" height="283"></p>
<p>A big contributor to the declining ratio of debt to assets over recent years has been the ongoing fall in interest rates to their current lows.  The RBA publishes ratios of interest payments to disposable income for household and housing debt.  The fourth chart highlights that households are paying significantly less interest currently than they were when interest rates were much higher.  At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household interest repayments to disposable income was 8.7% and for housing it was 7.1%.  Lower interest rates also mean that where there is a debt, debtors have the ability (if they choose) to maintain previous repayments which in turn means additional debt is repaid as interest rates fall.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-ppimage4.png" alt="2017-10-09--ratioofhouseholdandhousinginteretrepaymentstodisposableincome" width="570" height="281"></p>
<p>The data highlights that Australian households are heavily indebted, largely due to housing.  While debt levels are high, the value of household and housing assets are, at this stage, considerably greater than the level of debt.  Of course, if household and housing asset values begin to fall in the future, the accompanying debt may not fall at the same rate and that remains the main concern with the ongoing increase in household and housing debt.  Although Australia survived the financial crisis with much less damage than most other countries, it is noticeable how there was a fairly sharp rise in the ratio of household and housing debts to assets over that period.  A more sustained downturn could potentially see a much greater increase in these ratios as asset values fall but the debt against these assets remain.<br> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
<p>To read the original article <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/household-debts-and-assets-hit-record-highs#.Wd6d5xOCyuV" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p>
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Household debt and assets reach record highs: Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The ABS data showed that at the end of the March quarter, household net worth was $10.243 trillion.</p>
<p>While a large figure, household wealth has now fallen for two consecutive quarters and is -0.7% lower year-on-year. The $10.243 trillion in net worth is madeup of $12.701 trillion in assets and $2.458 trillion in liabilities. The recent fall in the value of assets at a time in which liabilities have continued to rise has led to the fall in net worth.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank (RBA) analyses this data to produce a number of valuable ratios, including: debt, assets and interest payments to household disposable income.</p>
<p>These ratios highlight the impact of high levels of debt at a time in which asset values have fallen but the debt has not fallen at the same pace.</p>
<p>We’ve seen the ratio of household debt to disposable income continue to climb over the quarter, reaching a new historic high of 189.7%. The rise in household debt relative to incomes has certainly slowed; however, it continues to edge higher.</p>
<p>The ratio of housing debt to disposable income is recorded at 140.1% and was unchanged over the quarter. While it was unchanged over the quarter, it remains at an historic high level, highlighting that households remain very sensitive to the cost of mortgage debt.</p>
<p>Turning to the ratio of household assets to disposable income, it was recorded at 927.0% in March 2019. The ratio peaked at 961.7% in December 2017 and has trended lower since. The ratio of housing assets to disposable income peaked at 529.6% in December 2017 and as at March 2019; it was recorded at 483.5%.</p>
<p>The reduction in housing values has coincided with the period in which the ratio of household and housing assets has fallen which is no wonder when you consider housing accounts for around half of the value of household assets. </p>
<p>It's also important to consider is that while the value of assets are falling there has been no reduction in the ratios of debt to income which highlights that asset depreciation has been greater than debt reduction. As a result, the ratio of household debts to assets is at 20.5%, the highest it has been since December 2014 and the ratio of housing debt to assets is at 29.0%, the highest it has been since June 2013.</p>
<p>Despite the lowest interest rates since the 1960s, the ratio of interest payments to disposable income has trended higher years. As at March 2019 the ratio was recorded at 9.1% and although it has been steady for three quarters, interest payments relative to disposable income has trended higher on an annual basis</p>
<p>Furthermore, the ratio of interest payments to disposable income was last this high in September 2013. It is a similar story for the ratio of housing interest payments to disposable income, which is also trending higher, recorded at 7.6%, which is the highest ratio since June 2013.</p>
<p>With interest rates at generational lows there was perhaps, some expectation that households would use the low rates to pay off some debt however that has largely not occurred. With asset values recently falling the data shows that debt pay off has not been as rapid as the declines leading to a reduction in household wealth.</p>
<p>This data is to March 2019 and by the end of June 2019, there were some tentative signs that the declines in dwelling values were starting to level. While this means that there is likely to be a further decline in household wealth over the June quarter, it also suggests there is unlikely to be a meaningful reduction in household debt levels.</p>
<p>As such, household debt levels are likely to remain amongst the highest in the world. At the same time, the value of household assets remain substantially higher than the value of the debt. The cause for concern will be what happens if economic conditions deteriorate materially, leading to weaker labour market conditions and potentially creating some challenges around servicing such high levels of debt as unemployment rises.</p>
<p>Another medium to long-term consideration is a scenario where interest rates eventually start to rise. Households are generally able to service high levels of household debt while interest rates are at record lows, but eventually (probably not for at least several years) interest rates will rise.</p>
<p>If household debt levels remain high relative to incomes under a higher interest rate environment, the result could be weakness in household spending (as households dedicate more of their income towards servicing their debt) and potentially higher levels of financial stress amongst heavily leveraged households.</p>
<p><em>CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic</em></p>
<p><em>Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.</em></p>
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Australian Household wealth falling while debt remains: Cameron Kusher

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a flurry of excitement back in January when previously reported 2017 figures implied that Australia's household debt pile had temporarily nudged against twice disposable income. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the headline number was subsequently revised down.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest ratios from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) show household debt now sitting at at 1.9x disposable income.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Or 190.13 per cent as at March 2018, to use a bit of false precision, up from 183.51 per cent a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jg6DW-0Q4mU/WzqepI3WnUI/AAAAAAAAq2g/IgMCJx3uRN4KTafsk-RgZdhKL9lqNlKiACLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jg6DW-0Q4mU/WzqepI3WnUI/AAAAAAAAq2g/IgMCJx3uRN4KTafsk-RgZdhKL9lqNlKiACLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1310"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's a lot of debate about what this debt ratio should or shouldn't be.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It will probably remain higher than was previously normal given the structure of Australia's population and immigration profile, with policy generally taking a keener regard of interest payments and serviceability. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although this is a revised series high, the rate of increase has slowed somewhat (while the gross figure also doesn't account for the record mortgage buffers and use of offset accounts racked up through this cycle).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, given the precipitous drop in both the stock and flow of interest-only mortgages the ratio is likely to peak relatively soon as income growth also moves beyond the nadir. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anecdotally lenders are making it very difficult for brokers and borrowers to see loans written at the present time, which I believe will see the seasonally adjusted monthly value of investment loans pushed down to around $10 billion by the middle of the year, from nearly $15 billion at the 2015 peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Money growth is now at its lowest level in 26 years, and investor credit growth is at a record low of just 2 per cent, even before accounting for headcount growth and inflation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span>
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Household debt higher over 12 months to March

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<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>Household finance data released by the Reserve Bank (RBA) each quarter looks at the ratios of household debts and assets to disposable income. The latest RBA update shows that while households debt is growing, asset wealth is simultaneously increasing. </p>
<div title="Page 1">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>According to the RBA, the ratio of household debt to disposable income was recorded at 193.7% at the end of June 2017 and now sits at a record-high having increased by 2.0% over the quarter and by 3.9% over the year.</p>
<p>According to CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher it was not surprising to see that most of this debt is housing related; the ratio of housing debt to disposable income is recorded at 136.4% having increased by 1.4% over the quarter and 3.9% over the year.</p>
<p>Kusher said, “Clearly, household and housing debt has increased over time relative to disposable incomes. Of note is that since the financial crisis, the rate of escalation has slowed.”</p>
<p>Further data from the RBA reveals that of the 136.4% ratio of housing debt to disposable income, 103.2% is held by owner occupiers with the remaining 33.2% held by investors.</p>
<p>At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household assets to disposable income was recorded at 935.6% and the ratio of housing assets to disposable income was 516.5%, both of which were record highs. Over the past year household assets and housing assets have increased by 6.6% and 7.8% respectively, well in excess of the increase in household and housing debt.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p> <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher1.png" alt=""></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher2.png" alt=""></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher3.png" alt=""></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/05/Kusher4.png" alt=""></p>
<p>By comparing the ratios of assets and debt the RBA also produces ratios of household and housing debt to assets. Mr Kusher said, “The data reiterates that although debt levels are high, at this stage debt is well supported by assets which are valued substantially higher.”</p>
<p>Over recent years the ratios of household and housing debt to assets has actually been falling. In June 2017, the ratio of household debt to assets was recorded at 20.7% and the ratio of housing debt to assets sat at 26.4%.</p>
<p>According to Kusher, a big contributor to the declining ratio of debt to assets over recent years has been the ongoing fall in interest rates to their current lows. At the end of June 2017 the ratio of household interest repayments to disposable income was 8.7% and for housing it was 7.1%. Lower interest rates also mean that where there is a debt, debtors have the ability (if they choose) to maintain previous repayments which in turn means additional debt is repaid as interest rates fall.</p>
<p>He said, “The latest household finance data from the RBA highlights that Australian households are heavily indebted, largely due to housing. While debt levels are high, the value of household and housing assets are, at this stage, considerably greater than the level of debt.”</p>
<p>“Of course, if household and housing asset values begin to fall in the future, the accompanying debt may not fall at the same rate and that remains the main concern with the ongoing increase in household and housing debt.</p>
<p>“Although Australia survived the financial crisis with much less damage than many other countries, of note was the fairly sharp rise in the ratio of household and housing debts to assets over that period. A more sustained downturn could potentially see a much greater increase in these ratios as asset values fall but the debt against these assets remain,” Mr Kusher said. </p>
</div>
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<p> </p>
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Household debt growing slower than asset wealth as both hit record highs

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">It's like<em> deja vu </em>all over again! </p>
<div id="post-body-5346701206206902946" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The historic ratio of household debt to disposable income was once again revised down, but the trajectory remained up. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And in the end, we ended up back in the same old place, with an Aussie household debt ratio still at 1.9x disposable income. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Note that the impact of tax and rate cuts has yet to flow through fully to these figures, so behavioural patterns could change going forward. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-E1JICRVccs4/XY2p48YKbqI/AAAAAAAAx_E/iSC6SMuc62Yj4H-65nfDIT5IdyvUEI7mQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="1366"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The 'record high' headlines will naturally follow in due course, although the ratio was ostensibly about 200 per cent a couple of years ago - before previous revisions were pushed through - and the growth in housing credit has since been crunched lower (to record lows for housing investors, at zero growth). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The bulk of Australia's household debt remains concentrated in the upper two income quintiles, while net of a huge surge in prepayments the debt-to-income ratio is pretty much unchanged since 2006. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Treasurer Frydenberg was also lightning quick off the mark to highlight that the value of assets was 5x that of the debt. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile the ratio of household interest payments to disposable income continued to fall and sow sits well under 9 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This ratio is now some 33 per cent lower than at the 2008 peak, and trending lower (it was also higher in the late 1980s than it is today):</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-p9EkMGT4dH4/XY2p49HieWI/AAAAAAAAx_A/AJhLZqxNtjAwS6pUx5zeVs07A6IQAmC-ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1404"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interest rates have since fallen further in the September quarter, so further declines are in the post.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been some mortgage stress, even in spite of the household interest payments ratio being down by a third, mainly experienced in Western Australia and largely related to the forced interest-only mortgage reset.<br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kzDI0RPnsOI/XY245qcXHRI/AAAAAAAAx_k/poT5fkvt4uYJppj8l-6cjZan2M6BGJG3wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/sandp.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1422"></div>
<br>That said, S&amp;P expects arrears to fall as repayments have become easier. <br><div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></div>
</div>
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Interest repayments continue to get easier: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australian household debt levels have increased substantially over the past thirty years, with the ratio of household debt to annual disposable income rising from 68% in June 1990 to a recent peak of 188.5% in June 2019. Since June last year, the ratio has reduced slightly to 185.0%. Most of the debt held by households is housing debt, which comprises around 76% of overall household debt. Thirty years ago housing debt comprised a much smaller 46% of overall household debt.</p>
<p>The skew towards housing debt can also be seen in the latest Household Income and Wealth survey from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which showed the median value of debt held against owner occupied dwellings was $102,600, compared with a median debt level of $5,000 for student loans, $3,000 on credit cards and $3,700 on car loans. Most of Australia’s household debt accrual occurred between 1990 and 2010.</p>
<p>The ratio of household debt to income increased by 45.7 percentage points between 1990 and 2000, and by another 49.3 percentage points between 2000 and 2010. The past decade has seen growth in the ratio more than half to 21.5 percentage points, with most of that growth aligned with the property boom between late 2012 and 2017.</p>
<p>Importantly, the value of assets held against the debt has recorded a more significant increase, pushing household net worth to new record highs at the end of 2019. Residential dwellings comprise by far the largest component of household assets, totaling $6.8 trillion, or 53% of household wealth. Household debt levels are important for two reasons.</p>
<p>Heavily indebted households are generally more vulnerable to a ‘shock’ such as job loss, illness or a sharp rise in the cost of debt, which in turn has implications for financial stability. The other key area of concern relates to household spending; heavily indebted households may be more likely to save rather than spend during periods of uncertainty or economic hardship. With around 60% of Australia’s economy dependent on household consumption, a sustained drop in spending activity would have a negative impact on economic growth.</p>
<p>These risks were recently covered in detail by the RBA in a discussion paper released in May this year. The outcomes of the paper noted the risk to financial stability was likely to be relatively low due moderate loan-to-valuation ratios on residential mortgages. In separate analysis from the latest Financial Stability Review, the RBA notes that only 3% of Australian mortgages are thought to be in negative equity. The risks associated with high household debt levels weighing on consumption are more substantial, especially under a scenario where housing prices fell.</p>
<p>While household debt is high, and potentially a concern for consumption, servicing debt is at its most affordable since 1999 due to record low interest rates. The ratio of housing interest payments to household disposable income has more than halved since 2008, from a high of 13.3% to 6.4% in June 2020. With interest rates moving lower since June, it is likely the ratio has fallen even further. Another factor helping to minimise risk is the fact that asset values are substantially higher than the debt held against them.</p>
<p>The ratio of household debt to household assets was 19.4% and the ratio of housing debt to housing assets was 28.2% in June 2020, implying a remarkably large amount of equity is held within the household sector. Other factors helping to alleviate risk associated with high household debt, and potentially support a reduction in debt levels are credit policy and less consumer appetite for credit. Lending standards have improved over the past five to ten years, with a trend towards fewer loans originating with a high loan to valuation ratio and substantially fewer interest only loans.</p>
<p>9.2% of home loans were originated with a deposit of 10% or less in June this year, down from a recent peak of 22% in 2009. Similarly, interest only loans comprised almost 46% of new home loans in mid2015, but have averaged only 17% of new lending since mid-2017. Additionally, loans with a high loan to income ratio have remained low, with June data showing only 5.8% of new home loans were originated with a loan to income ratio of 6% or higher.</p>
<p>It is clear that households became more risk averse through the worst of the COVID period. National accounts data showed the household saving ratio skyrocketed to almost 20% through the June quarter, up from 2.5% in the June quarter of 2019. Given that the virus curve has flattened and consumer sentiment surged in recent months, it is likely the saving ratio will drop. Additionally, the trend in personal credit, which has been in negative monthly growth territory since late 2019, has plummeted since March.</p>
<p>Although the risks around high household debt are manageable at the moment, interest rates will eventually rise down the track.</p>
<p>As debt servicing costs move higher, a heavily indebted household sector would need to devote more of their income towards servicing debt and less to spending, which implies a medium-to-long term risk to household spending. This implies high debt levels may also stagger and slow an economic recovery. If increases in housing debt servicing costs result from higher interest rates, the exacerbated drag on spending could slow economic growth.</p>
<p>Additionally, with household debt remaining high, the sector is more exposed to unforeseen events such as job loss and illness, as well as black swan events like a pandemic or financial crisis. It is likely policy makers and regulators will be keeping watch for any signs of rising household debt or slippage in lending standards that could lead to higher household debt.</p>
<p>Higher LVR lending or higher loan to income ratios could be the trigger for a new round of macro-prudential style intervention. Recent macro-prudential interventions targeted interest only lending and growth in lending for investment housing through 2014 and 2019. Future interventions may be aimed at keeping a lid on household debt levels, and minimizing longer term risk, via firm limits on loan to valuation ratios, loan to income ratios or debt to income ratios.</p>
<p><strong>TIM LAWLESS </strong><em>is the research director Asia Pacific at CoreLogic</em></p>
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