Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Home Construction

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CoreLogic-RP Data already appears set to report further dwelling price growth in October for Sydney, with prices once again up at a sprightly pace and moving another +$5,300 higher. </div>
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<div>There has been plenty of spirited debate in the media about what comes next for house prices in Australia.</div>
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<div>Macquarie has suggested that a housing market correction of -7.5 per cent could take place - beginning some time in 2016 before ending in 2017 - while Stockland's Mark Steinert disagrees and sees prices continuing to rise by +3% to +5% through next year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This pretty much tells you everything you need to know about short term property market predictions: one analyst thinks prices will rise, another thinks they'll fall! Central Bank What about the role of the Reserve Bank and monetary policy settings? Here's what central bank expert Sophia Rodrigues thinks:</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/14/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-14%20at%2010.14.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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Long term focus Property owners would do well to retain a long term outlook rather than waste too much energy on short term dwelling price predictions, which are invariably a hit and miss affair at the best of times.</div>
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<div>As for the bubble/crash/correction calls which have continued over the past 15 years or so, Sydney median house prices now need to suffer an enormous correction - a gargantuan fall of $300,000 - even just to get back to where they were a couple of years ago in June 2013, let alone to actually correct from there. </div>
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Market variances One thing that can be said with some certainty is that there will be significant variances across the Sydney property market.</div>
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<div>Outer suburban auction markets in Sydney have already turned in favour of buyers with clearance rates tanking fast in the west, south west, and north west sub-regions. More stringent deposit requirements appear to be biting hard in the outer. On the other hand clearance rates have remained relatively elevated for now in the eastern suburbs, the inner west, lower north shore, northern beaches, and the city &amp; inner south. 
</div>
<div>Higher density markets will also almost certainly fare less happily than the metropolitan averages due to a looming stock overhang.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/14/NSW.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/14/NSW.jpg" alt=""></div>
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In terms of other market drivers, Sydney presently has a vacancy rate of around 1.7% but with plenty of supply now in the pipeline, while the unemployment rate for Greater Sydney is only 5.1%. Implied yields on cash rate futures contracts are pricing a 100% chance of an interest rate cut to just 1.75% by April 2016. This morning's Building Activity data release will shed more light on dwelling commencements and completions around the states. Expect to see both commencements and completions respectively at close to their highest ever levels.
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

October housing prices: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Fewer homes will be built over the coming year, and that is to be expected following the frenetic pace of building over 2014-2018.
But there will be no shortage of work for the broader building and construction sectors.
Over $140 billion of work is yet to be done.
Commercial building work to be completed is at record highs with engineering work near 4-year highs. And that doesn’t include the raft of new infrastructure planned by state and territory governments.
Rebuilding after the horrific bushfires will add to the work total as well in coming years.
While off the absolute peak levels in 2012 – a total driven by mining activity – work yet to be done on building and construction projects is up almost 4 per cent over the year and near the highest levels in 4½ years.
There is a perception that the economy is listing. But building and construction remains a bevy of activity and there is plenty of work to support building material providers, builders, tradespeople and professional services like architects. Outside the resources sector, a record amount of engineering work remains to be done.
What do the figures show?
The number of dwelling starts fell by 11.7 per cent in the September quarter after rising 1.5 per cent in the June quarter.
House starts fell by 4.8 per cent in the September quarter after a 9.4 per cent fall in the June quarter. Apartment starts fell by 21.9 per cent in the September quarter after a 20.3 per cent increase in the June quarter.
Work started on 180,972 new dwellings over the 12 months to September, down by 21.5 per cent on the year. Starts fell from the record high of 234,186 dwellings in the year to December 2016.
Across Australia, starts in the September quarter fell in six states/territories: NSW (down by 19.5 per cent); Victoria (down by 9.7 per cent); Queensland (up by 3.0 per cent); South Australia (up by 1.9 per cent); Western Australia (down by 14.8 per cent); Tasmania (down by 4.6 per cent); Northern Territory (down by 18.5 per cent); and the ACT (down by 3.1 per cent).
In the year to September, dwelling starts were higher than the decade average in only two of the states and territories: NSW (up 7.6 per cent) and Tasmania (up 17.0 per cent). Starts were below the decade average in: Victoria (down 0.2 per cent); Queensland (down 13.6 per cent); South Australia (down by 9.1 per cent); Western Australia (down by 35.4 per cent); Northern Territory (down 60.9 per cent); the ACT (down 7.6 per cent); and total Australia (down 5.9 per cent).
In the September quarter residential and commercial building work done fell by 0.5 per cent. New residential work fell 3.4 per cent with alterations &amp; additions down 0.3 per cent but commercial building rose by 3.8 per cent and engineering work rose by 0.5 per cent.
The value of residential and commercial building work in the pipeline stood at $89.6 billion at the end of September, down by 7.1 per cent on a year ago and below the record-high of $99.2 billion at the end of June 2018.
Across Australia, 201,317 homes are currently being built, down from a record 231,416 homes in March 2018.
In the September quarter residential and commercial building work yet to be done (completed), stood at $69.8 billion, down 7.9 per cent on a year ago. Engineering work to be done stood at $74.1 billion, up 18.1 per cent on a year ago. Total building and construction work to be done stood at $144 billion at the end of September, just off 4½-year highs but up 3.9 per cent on the year.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Building and construction sectors face mixed prospects. Work to be done on commercial projects stands at record highs. Engineering work is near 5-year highs but dwelling construction is easing from unsustainable highs.
When the word ‘decline’ or ‘fall’ is used, the perception is negative. But always the base needs to be considered as well as history. While some construction work levels have eased, in many sectors the decline is from super-normal or unsustainable levels. In NSW at the peak more than 70,000 apartments were being built. Prior to the last five years, a number of 25,000 apartments being built was considered a high level of building.
The healthy levels of construction work to be done provides further complications for the Reserve Bank in its thinking about rates at the February 2020 Board meeting. The next two key events are the December job figures on January 23 and the Consumer Price Index (inflation) on January 29.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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Record commercial building work to be done: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Dwelling approvals fell 15.5% in February, unwinding a 19.1% jump in February that reflected a big spike in high rise approvals. That was in line with Westpac's forecast but a touch weaker than the consensus view of a 12.5% decline.
Headline moves over the last two months have been driven by 'high rise' units with approvals in the segment more than doubling between January and February and nearly halving again between February and March. Approvals in this segment are still well above Jan's extreme low and about 10% above the average level over the three months to January.
Outside of the high rise segment, the underlying trend looks to be weak. Total approvals ex high rise (covering both detached houses and mid-low rise) looks to be down a further 2% in the month following a 4% fall in February and down around 19% year. Private detached house approvals declined 3.2% month, to be down 18.3% year. Mid-low rise unit approvals look to have risen slightly by around 1% in the March month but are still down by around 20% year.
The state detail also points to a soft underlying tone. The unwinding high rise spike was concentrated in NSW (–27% month, –23% year) and Vic (–27% month, –36% year). Excluding high rise, NSW posted a 10% month gain in the month but was coming off a much weaker January with approvals still down 7.7% on their Dec level. Vic approvals ex high rise declined 1.9% month but is down a milder 3.5% compared to Dec. Approvals declined the other major eastern states, the slide over the last year now looking brutal in Qld (–2.4% month, –35.9% year); much milder in SA (–2% month, –11.5% year). WA bucked the wider trend this month, posting a surprisingly strong 4.8% month gain to be up 20.7% year, very much against the odds.
The total value of renovation approvals fell 8.7% month to be up 3.6% on a rolling three month average basis, a reasonable uptrend still in place. The state detail continues to point to gains coming through more strongly in Qld and WA.
The total value of non res building approvals rose 2.1% month but is still down 0.5% year on a rolling three month basis. Conditions remain mixed across both segments but the state split points to slowing in NSW and Vic partially offset by gains in Qld and WA.
Overall the March dwelling approvals update again points to weakening underlying momentum, highlighting downside risks to the near term outlook for new dwelling construction. So far the weakness mostly just cancels out the lift from the February high rise spike. However clearly there are downside risks to the outlook if the weak momentum continues in coming months, particularly if we also start to see approved high rise projects get put on hold.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac.
Download the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/May/er20190503BullDwellApprovMar.pdf" target="_blank">Australian dwelling approvals March' (PDF 327kb)</a>.
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Dwelling construction forecast is weak: Westpac's Matthew Hassan 

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
The number of dwelling starts (commencements) fell by 16.3 per cent in the December quarter to 46,706 dwellings after falling by 3.8 per cent in the September quarter. 
House starts fell by 7.6 per cent in the December quarter and apartment starts fell by 26.8 per cent. 
Work started on 221,606 new dwellings over the 12 months to December, up 2.4 per cent on the year, but fell from the record high of 234,179 dwellings in the year to December 2016. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CMSC%201.JPG" alt="">
Across Australia, starts in the December quarter fell in seven states/territories: NSW (down by 15.6 per cent); Victoria (down by 10.5 per cent); Queensland (down by 29.7 per cent); South Australia (down by 4.5 per cent); Western Australia (up by 14.9 per cent); Tasmania (up by 3.9 per cent); Northern Territory (down by 24.6 per cent); and the ACT (down by 53.1 per cent).
In the year to December, dwelling starts were higher than the decade average in all of the states &amp; territories except for the Northern Territory (down 53.9 per cent), and Western Australia (down 30.8 per cent). Starts in NSW were 43.2 per cent above the decade average. Next highest was the ACT where starts were up by 42.7 above the decade average with Victoria up 22.5 per cent; Queensland up 12.4 per cent; Tasmania up 12.0 per cent; and South Australia up 8.5 per cent. \
In the December quarter $72.9 billion of residential and commercial building work was yet to be done (completed), up 5.6 per cent on a year ago. 
The value of residential and commercial building work in the pipeline stood at $94.9 billion at the end of December, down by 0.7 per cent on a year ago but down from a record $99 billion at the end of June.
Across Australia, 216,948 homes are being built, down from a record 230,573 homes in March.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CMSC%203.JPG" alt="">
Consumer confidence 
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment index rose by 1.9 per cent to 100.7 in April. But the sentiment index is below its long-term average of 101.3 and down 1.7 per cent over the year to April. A reading above 100 denotes optimism. The survey of 1,200 people was conducted from April 1-5. 
The current conditions index fell by 3.2 per cent, but the expectations index rose by 5.4 per cent. 
Three of the five components of the index rose in April: 
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago fell by 5.0 per cent to 80.2;
The estimate of family finances over the next year rose by 4.1 per cent to 105.6;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months rose by 6.2 per cent to 101.8; 
Economic conditions over the next 5 years rose by 5.9 per cent to 100.2;
The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item fell by 2.0 per cent to 115.5. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CMSC%202.JPG" alt="">
Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? The index rose by 2.4 per cent to 119.4, and was up 14.9 per cent on the year. House price expectations rose by 11.9 per cent to 95.6, but were down by 26.5 per cent on a year ago. 
Unemployment expectations: Unemployment expectations fell by 2.5 per cent to 127.4 in April to be up by just 1.4 per cent over the year.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors? 
Council approvals to build new homes may have eased from record levels, but there is still plenty of work to be done over the next year. Dwelling starts in ‘boom’ state of Tasmania are particularly strong. At the other end of the spectrum, building in the ‘Top End’ is at record lows due to weak population growth. 
And it’s not all ‘doom and gloom’ for building materials’ companies. In fact, the growing pipeline of public transport-related infrastructure projects could ‘fill the gap’ for residential builders, while boosting demand for building products. If re-elected, the Federal government has committed to $100 billion worth of rail, roads and other transport projects over a 10-year period. 
Consumer spending and the jobs market are both key to the interest rate outlook. Spending at supermarkets and on food have both been solid. As the Easter holidays approach, retailers will be hoping that Aussies feel chipper about their tax cuts. That said, it appears the reaction from low income earners has been fairly muted.
CommSec expects interest rates to be unchanged for the foreseeable future. But the loss of momentum across global economies means central banks are skewed to more accommodative monetary policies.
RYAN FELSMAN is a Senior Economist for CommSec
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Home building hits three year low: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Regulation of the Australian building industry is broken, according to the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/building-confidence-building-ministers-forum-expert-assessment" target="_blank">Shergold-Weir report</a> to the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/regulation-and-standards/building-and-construction/building-ministers-forum" target="_blank">Building Ministers’ Forum</a> (BMF).
"[…] we have concluded that [the] nature and extent [of problems] are significant and concerning. The problems have led to diminishing public confidence that the building and construction industry can deliver compliant, safe buildings which will perform to the expected standards over the long term."
You can say that again.
Just one of the issues identified in the report, combustible cladding, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/hit-list-identifies-10000-potential-grenfellstyle-buildings/news-story/65aaf99088ead16bd3e0947a6e242770" target="_blank">could affect over 1,000 buildings across Australia</a>. An unknown proportion of these are tall (four storey and above) residential strata buildings. Fears of rectification costs are starting to have <a href="https://www.afr.com/real-estate/melbourne-apartment-buildings-face-extra-scrutiny-over-combustible-cladding-20190205-h1avoi" target="_blank">severe impacts on the apartment market</a>.
The cost of replacing combustible panels at the Lacrosse Apartments in Melbourne, which caught fire in 2014, will be <a href="https://theconversation.com/lacrosse-fire-ruling-sends-shudders-through-building-industry-consultants-and-governments-112777" target="_blank">at least A$5.7 million, plus A$6 million or so in consequential damages</a>. The total cost of replacing combustible panels across Australia is unknown at this point, but is likely to run to billions of dollars.
The <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/building-confidence-building-ministers-forum-expert-assessment" target="_blank">Shergold-Weir report</a> identifies a catalogue of other problems, including water leaks, structurally unsound roof construction and poorly constructed fire-resisting elements. Faults appear to be widespread.
A <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/44/Governing_the_Compact_City_EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY.pdf" target="_blank">2012 study by UNSW City Futures</a> surveyed 1,020 strata owners across New South Wales and found 72% of respondents (85% in buildings built since 2000) knew of at least one significant defect in their complex. Fixing these problems will cost billions more.
Regulatory failures are not only “diminishing public confidence”, they have a direct impact on the hip pockets of many Australians who own a residential apartment. In short, building defects resulting from lax regulation are a multi-billion dollar disaster.
How could authorities let this happen?
A web of regulations and standards enacted by governments cover construction in Australia, but this regulation is centred on the <a href="https://ncc.abcb.gov.au/ncc-online/About" target="_blank">National Construction Code</a> (NCC). The <a href="https://www.abcb.gov.au/ABCB/The-Board" target="_blank">Australian Building Codes Board</a> (ABCB), a body controlled by the Building Ministers’ Forum, manages the NCC. The ABCB board comprises appointed representatives from the Commonwealth plus all the states and territories and a few industry groups.
It is such a complicated system that it is hard to identify any government, organisation or person that is directly responsible for its performance.
The NCC is supposed to create “benefits to society that outweigh costs” but it appears the ABCB may have been more focused on the need to “consider the competitive effects of regulation” and “not be unnecessarily restrictive” (Introduction to NCC Volume 1).
The BMF’s <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/bmf-communique-8-february-2019.pdf" target="_blank">February 8 communique</a>, issued after the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/bmf-communique-8-february-2019.pdf" target="_blank">fire in the Neo200 building</a> in Melbourne, is straight out of the Yes Minister playbook:
"Ministers agreed in principle to a national ban on the unsafe use of combustible ACPs (aluminium composite panels) in new construction, subject to a cost/benefit analysis being undertaken on the proposed ban, including impacts on the supply chain, potential impacts on the building industry, any unintended consequences, and a proposed timeline for implementation. Ministers will further consider this at their next meeting [in May this year]."
This suggests the ministers are more concerned about possible impacts on the panel suppliers and the building industry than the consumer. The earliest a ban can take effect is in May. In the meantime, anecdotal evidence suggests buildings are still being clad in combustible ACP.
Thanks to the journalist Michael Bleby, we know <a href="https://www.afr.com/real-estate/governments-failed-to-act-on-warnings-of-combustible-cladding-dangers-20190226-h1br6n" target="_blank">governments and the ABCB failed to act in 2010</a> when presented with evidence that combustible ACP was not only a danger, but was also being widely used on tall residential buildings.
Bleby quoted ABCB general manager Neil Savery as saying neither his organisation, nor any of the states, was aware that builders were using the product incorrectly.
We also know that panel manufacturers, including the Australian supplier of Alucobond, actively lobbied building ministers. At the July 2011 BMF meeting, the ACT representative effectively vetoed an ABCB proposal to issue an advisory note on the use of combustible ACP.
We are entitled to ask why the ABCB and its staff, or the downstream regulators and their staff, did not know about serious fire problems with ACP that the technical press <a href="http://www.cookeonfire.com/pdfs/eurisolgreenreport.pdf" target="_blank">identified as long ago as 2000</a>. The answer will be of particular interest to residents of tall apartment buildings clad in these panels, all of whom are now living with an active threat to their safety.
Consumers are owed better protection
While both Labor and Coalition governments have worked to improve consumer protection for people buying consumer goods, their record on housing, particularly apartments, is awful. While a consumer can be reasonably sure of getting restitution if they buy a faulty fridge, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/victims-suffer-as-combustible-cladding-crisis-rages-on-20190402-p519yy" target="_blank">no such certainty exists if they buy a faulty house or apartment</a>.
At the moment, the NCC does not have any focus on providing protection for buyers of houses or apartments. There are few requirements for the durability of components and astonishingly weak requirements for waterproofing. Under the NCC and its attached Australian Standards, particularly AS 4654.1 and 2-2012, a waterproof membrane could last, in practice, five minutes or 50 years.
Given the magnitude of the economic loss, it would be appropriate for the BMF and ABCB board to publicly admit they have failed. Since their appointments in November 2017 and January 2013 respectively, neither ABCB chair John Fahey nor Savery as general manager has remedied the situation. The Shergold-Weir report has not been implemented and the combustible cladding issues remain unresolved. It would be reasonable for Fahey to step down and for Savery to consider his future.
The next federal government should consider what further action should be taken, particularly in relation to individuals on the BMF and within the ABCB involved in the 2010-2011 decision not to issue the proposed advisory note on the use of ACP. Since the ABCB does not publish minutes and none of its deliberations are in the public domain no one knows what actually happened or who did what.
The new board should consider moving residential apartment buildings (Class 2 buildings in the NCC classification) from Volume 1 of the NCC to Volume 2, which controls detached and semi-detached housing. Volume 2 should then have as its overriding objective the protection of consumers.
The downstream regulators should focus on requiring builders to deliver residential buildings with no serious faults and providing simple mechanisms for redress if they don’t.
Surely this is not too much to ask.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113115/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Geoff Hanmer, Adjunct Lecturer in Architecture, UNSW
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-with-buyer-protection-and-no-serious-faults-is-that-too-much-to-ask-of-builders-and-regulators-113115" target="_blank">original article</a>.
This article has been updated to correct a reference to NCC volumes 1 and 2 – the latter controls detached and semi-detached housing.
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Housing with no serious faults and buyer protection – is that too much to ask of builders and regulators?

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New home building held up well during the September 2018 quarter despite the tougher market conditions, according to Master Builders Australia’s chief economist Shane Garrett. 
The ABS figures on Construction Work Done released this morning indicate that new residential building work eased back by 1.8% during the quarter but was still some 4.7% higher than a year earlier. 
“Surprisingly, the apartment/unit side of the market put in a strong performance and came close to surpassing its busiest quarter on record. Work on detached houses fell by 3.2% compared with the previous quarter,” Shane Garrett said. 
“The performance of residential building has proven more resilient than expected in light of the unfolding credit crunch and less favourable conditions in Australia’s largest housing markets,” he said. 
“Going forward, we do expect the tougher financial environment to take its toll on the volume of new home building over the next few years.
"Larger apartment projects will probably see the biggest reduction,” Shane Garrett said. 
Today’s figures also indicate that non-residential building declined by 2.4% during the September 2018 quarter and that engineering construction fell by 4.5%. 
“With the federal Budget set be delivered earlier next year, it is important that it includes measures to support our sector’s capacity to meet the building needs of a steadily growing population,” Shane Garret said.
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New home building holds up

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EXPERT OBSERVER
With home prices falling, access to finance more difficult and fewer people now entering the country, the number of new homes approved for construction has declined.
ABS data released today show that 16,447 homes (seasonally adjusted) were approved for construction in August – a level that is 9.4 per cent lower than in July and 13.6 per cent lower than in August 2017. The latest level of approvals is the lowest since October 2016. 
The new home building sector has been cooling modestly over the past year after reaching all-time high levels of activity during 2015 through to 2017.
Just as apartment construction drove the increase in home building to record levels, approvals data is signalling that apartments will lead the decline.
Approvals for units fell by 17.2 per cent in August, to be 23.7 per cent lower than a year earlier. 
The key risks that we’re watching relate to credit conditions and population growth.
Constraints on the availability of finance through APRA and increased prudential constraints by banks are restricting investment in new homes.
Population growth has slowed since the government introduced stricter visa requirements last year. As global economic conditions improve, skilled migrants who might otherwise consider immigrating to Australia could be more inclined to look to other similar advanced economies where entry requirements are less restrictive.
The outlook for detached house building is better than for units, with the latest approvals data indicating declines likely to be much more modest,” added Ms Hopkins.
Detached house approvals declined by 1.7 per cent in August and are a modest 4.2 per cent lower than a year previously,” concluded Ms Hopkins.
Total seasonally adjusted dwelling approvals in August fell across the eastern seaboard states: Victoria (-12.0 per cent); Queensland (-8.4 per cent), and; New South Wales (-2.7 per cent). Tasmania experienced the largest monthly fall (-18.6 per cent). Elsewhere approvals increased: Western Australia (+14.7 per cent) and South Australia (+9.6 per cent). 
In trend terms, total dwelling approvals in August increased by 1.5 per cent in the Northern Territory and was virtually unchanged (up by 0.1 per cent) in the Australian Capital Territory.
Diwa Hopkins is an economist at the Housing Industry Association.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Fewer homes approved for construction: HIA

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In Victoria, the cost of constructing a house accelerated by 5% in 2017 according to the CoreLogic CHIP index December quarter results. According to the measure, this is now higher than the national pace of 4% across Australia, and the highest growth rate of all of the states for the year.
Several factors have contributed to this rapid increase in construction costs in the state. Namely, Victoria’s strong housing growth in the last few years which has delivered increased demand for housing construction materials and labour as developers seek to capitalise on high capital growth rates.
Along with increases in building input values and labour, CoreLogic development data indicates that 11.1% of residential subdivision commencements across Victoria were located in the state’s regional areas. Furthermore, 48.6% of residential subdivisions commenced on the fringes of the Melbourne metropolitan area and included Hume, Whittlesea and Wyndham. As a result, higher freight costs are likely to be built into the delivery of materials to regional sites.
Note: The CoreLogic CHIP index uses a standard house model over time to isolate changes in the cost of building materials and labour that go into constructing a house. CoreLogic tracks a separate index for Australia, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. The National CHIP index rose 4% over 2017 and has diverged significantly from growth in CPI since around 2003. Since this time, inflation has averaged 0.62%, while quarterly nominal growth in the building price index has averaged 1.1%. Furthermore, as subdued wages have maintained a low inflationary environment in Australia, the gap between building costs and general living costs have increasingly diverged. Eliza Owen said, “This suggests that inflation accounts less and less for the growth in the CHIP index.”
CoreLogic’s construction and development data has been powered by the acquisition of Cordell in 2015. The CHIP index began in 1990. The Queensland CHIP index has grown the highest of the states since 1990, at 190%. Particular divergence occurred between Queensland and the rest of Australia from the time of the 2011 Queensland floods, when rebuilding accelerated building costs in the state, as well as inflation generally. Find the full CHIP index report for Q4 here.
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Eliza Owen is Commerical Property Research Analyst with ‎CoreLogic and can be contacted <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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House construction cost in Victoria rise five percent in 2017: Eliza Owen

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Dwelling investment appears to have peaked earlier than previously anticipated, according to the RBA's latest statement on monetary policy.
"Although the significant pipeline of work still to be done should mean that the level of residential construction activity remains high over the next year or so, dwelling investment is not likely to contribute to GDP growth over the forecast period," it advised. 
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Bank liaison with developers indicates that demand for off-the-plan apartments in the major east-coast cities has moderated, reflecting weaker demand from foreign buyers and domestic investors.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/10/growth.jpg" alt="" style="font-size: 12.16px;">
Developers’ access to bank finance – which is secured before obtaining a building approval – has tightened over the past year or so, particularly in areas where there have been very large increases in the supply of apartments, such as inner-city Brisbane, the statement noted.  
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The statement acknowledged one of the key sources of uncertainty for the forecasts is the outlook for the labour market.  
It also suggested weaker-than-expected growth in housing prices or changes in expectations about the likely path of interest rates could also lead to weaker consumption growth than is currently forecast.
The statement sets out the Bank's assessment of current economic conditions, both domestic and international, along with the outlook for Australian inflation and output growth.
It noted conditions in established housing markets have eased in recent months.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/10/Price%20Growth.jpg" alt="">
"The Sydney market has slowed noticeably; auction clearance rates have fallen and housing price growth has been relatively subdued over the past few months, although this follows very strong increases in housing prices over the second half of 2016 and early 2017."
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Conditions remain strongest in Melbourne; vendor discounts and days on market continue to point to very strong conditions, although housing price inflation and the auction clearance rate have declined a little.
"The more pronounced slowing in the Sydney housing market relative to Melbourne may reflect the higher share of investors in the Sydney market; the flow of loan approvals to these buyers has slowed since the beginning of the year."
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Housing prices in Sydney are also higher, so affordability could be more of a constraint than in Melbourne.
Higher migration flows to Victoria, both from overseas and interstate, are also supporting the demand for housing, it noted.
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Housing prices have declined a little further in Perth, where the rental vacancy rate has increased to its highest level since 1990, driven by the slowing in population growth.
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In Brisbane, apartment prices have been little changed in recent months following earlier declines, while detached house prices have increased. 
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The bank noted overall household indebtedness is high and debt levels relative to income have continued to edge higher because household credit growth has continued to outpace income growth.
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"Steps taken by regulators have seen the growth in riskier types of lending to households moderate, but some risks remain.
"For example, a highly indebted household sector is likely to be more sensitive to changes in income or wealth, which could have implications for consumption growth.
"Also, consumption growth could be weaker for a time if indebted households choose to pay down debt more quickly rather than spend additional income."
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Dwelling investment has peaked earlier than previously anticipated: RBA 

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The Australian Institute of Architects has opened voting for the public to choose from 14 shortlisted residential projects to celebrate World Architecture Day on October 3.
Selected by a national jury, the 14 projects range from discreet alterations to grand works of art, showcasing the best residential architecture – both new builds and alterations and additions – from around the country.
Voting for the National Architecture Awards' 2016 People's Choice Award is open until October 27.
The winning project will be announced at the National Architecture Awards ceremony on November 3 in Sydney along with all the winners as chosen by the panel of judges.
People who choose to cast their vote also stand a chance to win prizes by writing a short summary in 25 words justifying their choice.
More information on the 2016 National Architecture Awards and access to voting in the People's Choice Award is available via <a href="https://wp.architecture.com.au/awards-2016/" target="_blank">wp.architecture.com.au/awards-2016/</a> 
Projects vying for the vote are:
Camino House (WA) by Bosske Architecture (above)
Chapel Hill House (QLD) by Reddog Architects Pty Ltd
Darlinghurst Rooftop (NSW) by CO-AP (Architects)
Deepdene House (VIC) by Kennedy Nolan
Deepwater (NSW) by Tobias Partners
Five Yards House (TAS) by Archier
Granville Residence (QLD) by Richard Kirk Architect
House in Hamilton (QLD) by phorm architecture + design with Tato Architects
Indigo Slam (NSW) by Smart Design Studio
Jenny's House (TAS) by Rosevear Stephenson
Mills, The Toy Management House (VIC) by Austin Maynard Architects
Point Lonsdale House (VIC) by NMBW Architecture Studio
Project Zero (QLD) by BVN
Rosalie House (QLD) by Owen Architecture
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