Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Economy

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Many countries around the world, including Australia, are looking to the construction industry to help rebuild economies.
Industry bodies such as the Master Builders Association are strongly urging governments to bring forward spending on already approved infrastructure projects.
They also want these projects to be unbundled into smaller contract packages so small local businesses and the whole sector get a piece of the pie.
We should not ignore the risks involved in the rush to get the economy going again. We will pay for mistakes made now in the form of debt created by cost blowouts and unscrupulous developers. We will have to live with poor-quality, ill-conceived and environmentally damaging developments for decades.
Of course, construction and infrastructure programs provide us with a powerful stimulus tool. It’s why federal and state governments are looking to this sector to drive recovery. The social impact of investing in more construction and infrastructure could certainly be significant.
Construction is one of the country’s largest employers. The sector employs about 1.2 million people directly, and indirectly much more. It’s one of the largest employers of apprentices, youth and disadvantaged groups such as Indigenous people and refugees.
Investment in construction flows through the broader economy. The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates every A$1 million spent on construction output generates A$2.9 million in output across the economy as a whole. Every job created in construction leads to another three in the wider economy.
Knowing this, state and local governments are relaxing hard-won controls to fast-track projects. Planning ministers are being given more power to override many of the statutory timeframes that govern normal planning and approval processes.
This approach creates many risks as well as many opportunities. If we do not control these risks in our rush to stimulate the economy, we are likely to regret this in future.
While the construction industry includes some world-class firms, the government-commissioned Productivity Commission inquiry into infrastructure raised many concerns about the lack of transparency and trust in development and infrastructure approval processes. It noted infrastructure project overruns were common. The extra costs amount to billions of dollars.
We are already battling a crisis of confidence in the residential apartments sector. Poor-quality buildings have devastated people’s lives. In New South Wales, the state government has appointed a building commissioner to clean up the mess.
Relaxing controls also opens the door to unscrupulous developers to exploit the crisis for their own personal gain. Transparency International’s recent submission to a Senate inquiry argues that powerful groups have too often prevailed over public interest. It warns:
Businesses in highly regulated industries, such as transport, mining, energy and property construction, all actively seek to influence politicians, although the channels of influence vary by industry.
In some countries we are already seeing developers exploiting the COVID-19 crisis to argue for relaxation and even removal of regulations put in place to ensure projects contribute positively to the communities in which they are built. A former senior adviser to US President Donald Trump has argued that his administration should trigger an emergency override of America’s environmental protection laws and establish “Australian-style permitting”.
If fast-tracked projects are undertaken without appropriate controls purely to boost the economy rather than meet a real community need, then we will be paying for this crisis for far longer than we expect.
As Elizabeth Mossop warned in her recent Conversation article, our governments are committing taxpayers to further debt to stimulate recovery from the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. Infrastructure spending is great for economic stimulus, but it still has to be the right kind of infrastructure that meets local community needs.
Mossop argues for small-scale stimulus projects focused on local small businesses, rather than multinationals, to deliver broad, long-term community value. Investing stimulus funding in local businesses means the money recycles in the community, reduces inequality and helps meet real community needs.
Of course we need to move quickly to rebuild our economy. But we must also place the community at the heart of any decisions about which projects we push through the system.
We could learn much from the principles of urban acupuncture, which would advocate a community-based approach to stimulus. It would also warn against awarding contracts to major multinationals. These corporations suck money out of needy communities into the pockets of shareholders with no links to the communities we need to help.
Research shows procuring from local businesses provides a 77-100 per cent economic advantage and an 80-100 per cent increase in jobs compared to procuring from multinationals.
If stimulus programs follow traditional approaches to infrastructure procurement in Australia, then we will miss an unprecedented opportunity to tackle growing inequity. Even before this crisis, many younger and poorer members of our society were already being left behind.The Conversation
Martin Loosemore is a Professor of Construction Management at the University of Technology Sydney
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

We may live to regret open-slather construction stimulus: Martin Loosemore

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More than four-fifths of experts (29/34, 85%) say the economy won’t fully recover until at least 2022.
However, more than one-third of experts (37%, 14/38) expect Australia to have its first quarter of GDP growth in Q3 2020.
<img src="https://mcusercontent.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/d8d0b433-be64-41ce-8ca2-8f894987f81f.png" data-imagetype="External">
Mark Crosby, applied macroeconomist at Monash University, said Q3 GDP growth is more about how bad the preceding quarters have been.
“If growth in Q3 2020 was measured against any quarter in 2019 it would be negative.
“In other words it's growth but nowhere near a reversion towards trend in Q3, not the end of recession (other than in definition) and not the end of rising unemployment,” Crosby said.
Restaurants and bars won’t return to normal until 2021
Those anxious for a "normal" restaurant experience once restrictions ease, may be waiting longer than they think.
Nearly half (47%, 15/31) of the experts who weighed in on hospitality said restaurants and bars won’t be operating at full capacity and without social distancing restrictions until 2021.
Less than a third (10, 31%) expected to see this happening this year.
Cooke said while restrictions are beginning to be relaxed, Australia still has a way to go until things return to normal.
“While restrictions are beginning to ease, it’s clear we’re still a long way off from booking a big group table at the pub over the long weekend,” Cooke said.
More than one-third of experts (37%, 14/38) expect Australia to have its first quarter of GDP growth in Q3 2020.
Mark Crosby, applied macroeconomist at Monash University, said Q3 GDP growth is more about how bad the preceding quarters have been.
“If growth in Q3 2020 was measured against any quarter in 2019 it would be negative.
“In other words it's growth but nowhere near a reversion towards trend in Q3, not the end of recession (other than in definition) and not the end of rising unemployment,” Crosby said.
Restaurants and bars won’t return to normal until 2021
Those anxious for a "normal" restaurant experience once restrictions ease, may be waiting longer than they think.
Nearly half (47%, 15/31) of the experts who weighed in on hospitality said restaurants and bars won’t be operating at full capacity and without social distancing restrictions until 2021.
Less than a third (10, 31%) expected to see this happening this year.
Cooke said while restrictions are beginning to be relaxed, Australia still has a way to go until things return to normal.
“While restrictions are beginning to ease, it’s clear we’re still a long way off from booking a big group table at the pub over the long weekend,” Cooke said.
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85% of experts say economy won't recover till 2022: Finder.com.au

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Last night would have been Budget night and the Australian Treasurer would have been announcing budget surpluses. Of course, coronavirus intervened, and the surpluses rightly had to be sacrificed to support Australian households, businesses and jobs. And it makes no sense to provide detailed budget forecasts given the extreme uncertainty about the impact on the economy and hence the budget for the coronavirus shutdown. So, the Treasurer has provided a statement to Parliament on the economic impact of the crisis, updated budget numbers will be provided in June and the Budget itself has been delayed to October.
As the economic impact of the crisis is well known I won’t go through that again here except to note two things from the Treasurer’s statement. First, more than 5.5 million Australian workers are now covered by the JobKeeper wage subsidy program which is coming close to the Government’s initial estimate that it would cover 6 million. Second, the Treasurer reiterated that the best way to pay back debt is through productivity enhancing reforms focussed on workforce training and education, infrastructure, cutting red tape, taxation and industrial relations reform. So, reform to help the economy recover post coronavirus will likely be the key focus in the October Budget.
This note looks at our own projections for the budget deficit, the impact on Australia’s net public debt and whether it’s affordable.
Budget deficit projections
The next table shows our rough budget deficit projections, taking the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook projections from last December as the starting point.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/1.png" alt="">
Under “policy changes” we have allowed for the three policy support packages announced through March, the health package announced in March, various industry support packages including that for childcare and bushfire spending. These are dominated by the $130bn JobKeeper program and are concentrated in this financial year and next, particularly for the period out to September. While the reopening of the economy may be coming a bit earlier than the Government had allowed for, we assume that the Government redirects some of the JobKeeper program from those who may no longer need it, to those who do, such that the full $130bn is still spent. In total and allowing for state fiscal stimulus this is resulting in a 10.6% of GDP fiscal stimulus for this calendar year, which swamps the stimulus seen in the GFC (and rightly so because the GFC posed a much smaller threat to the economy).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/2.png" alt="">
The hit to the economy will mean a hit to government revenue and increased spending demands under some existing spending programs and this is shown in the line called “parameter changes.” This is a guesstimate at present, because we are yet to get a firm handle on the size of the hit to the economy and how quickly it might recover. But the negative impact on the budget is likely to be bigger next financial year than this financial year because unemployment will average far more next financial year (around 8.5%) than this financial year (around 6.3%) and that provides a guide to lost Federal revenue and increased expenses.
Put simply, the Government’s necessary fiscal support response and the hit to the budget flowing from the hit to the economy will see the budget deficit blow out to around $130bn this year and $200bn next financial year, before falling sharply from 2021-22, as support programs end and the economy recovers.
This would see the budget deficit as a share of GDP peak at around 10% of GDP in 2020-21, which would be its highest since World War 2.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/3.png" alt="">
Spread over several years, this will add nearly 20% of GDP to Australia’s public debt.
But can we afford the surge in the deficit and debt?
It’s not ideal, but it is affordable. First, it needs to be stressed that the stimulus is absolutely necessary. If the Government hadn’t imposed the lockdown the healthcare system could have been overwhelmed resulting in many more deaths than the 97 recorded so far. Australia has seen 4 deaths per million people, but the UK and Italy have seen around 500 deaths per million and if that had occurred in Australia it would mean the deaths of around 12,500 people. And if the Government along with the RBA and state governments had not moved to protect jobs, businesses and incomes, the prospective hit to the economy from the lockdown would be far greater, with a much slower recovery in prospect (and probably an even bigger blow out in the budget and public debt). Looked at another way the 10% or so hit to the economy this half year required a similarly sized stimulus program to offset it.
Second, it makes sense for the public sector to borrow from households and businesses at a time when they are stuck at home and can’t spend due to the shutdown or won’t spend due to uncertainty, and for the Government to give the borrowed funds to help those businesses and individuals that are directly impacted. Using the funds to subsidise wages was a very smart move as it keeps people employed, keeps them linked to their employer and helps minimize confidence zapping unemployment headlines.
Third, the support programs have been designed to support the economy when they are most likely needed – in the June and September quarters – and to phase down thereafter as is apparent in the table above showing policy stimulus falling sharply from 2021-22. So, under current law we have not seen a permanent step jump higher in government spending. This contrasts with what seemed to happen post the GFC
Fourth, Australia’s net public debt is relatively low at 23% of GDP in comparison with the US at 84%, the Eurozone at 69% and Japan at 154%. See the next chart. And even with the projected budget deficit adding 17% of GDP to public debt by 2021, according to IMF projections Australia’s net public debt will remain relatively small at around 40% of GDP in two years’ time. So, Australia has far greater scope to do fiscal stimulus than other comparable countries.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/4.png" alt="">
Fifth, the cost of borrowing for the Federal Government is very low at just 0.25% for three years and 0.95% for ten years. Of course, this is partly being facilitated by the RBA buying bonds in the secondary market, although even if it weren’t bond yields would be low anyway reflecting the massive hit to the economy from the shutdown.
And the odd thing about the RBA holding more Government bonds is that much of the interest paid on the bonds by the Government to the RBA will flow back to the Government as a dividend.
Finally, the Australian Government is borrowing to finance the deterioration in the budget deficit in Australian dollars and given the turnaround in Australia’s balance of payments from a large current account deficit to a surplus or around balance in recent years, it’s not as if we are dependent on foreign creditors risking some sort of foreign currency crisis.
The blow out in the Australian Government’s budget deficit and public debt is not great. But it’s a necessary price Australia has to pay to minimise the loss of life from the virus and at the same time minimise the hit to people’s livelihoods from the shutdown. In terms of getting the debt back down, a temporary deficit levy would be preferable to tax hikes or the cancelation of tax cuts. But I agree with the Treasurer that the best approach to getting debt back down is to grow the economy aided by a reinvigorated economic reform agenda.
Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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The incoming budget deficit and public debt: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The National Cabinet will meet on Friday and top of the agenda will be plans to re-open the economy after a period of hibernation.
¾ Stimulus and support measures: Federal, state and territory governments and the Reserve Bank have outlined measures totalling over $340 billion or 17 per cent of GDP. The Addendum updates the previous list that was issued on April 20.
Government decisions on easing lockdown restrictions have implications for all sectors.
What does it all mean?
Australia has made good progress at stopping the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Now consideration turns to re-opening the economy. The health risks are easing but the economic risks are rising. So it is a case of finding some balance.
But just like when Microsoft Windows closes unexpectedly on your PC, the rebooting of the economy will be in ‘safe’ mode (COVIDSafe mode if you like). Open up too quickly and you risk repeating mistakes made in other countries that attempted to return to ‘normal’ too quickly.
National Cabinet will review the case for an easing of restrictions on Friday. National Cabinet has outlined conditions to be met before the economy can be rebooted.
The COVID-19 cases may lift again when the economy re-starts, but the aim is to keep the process manageable. Certainly the facilities and procedures are now in place to deal with any modest lift in cases.
The re-start timetable will vary across states and territories. The number of active cases is near zero in Northern Territory, ACT and South Australia. NSW, Victoria and Queensland have a bit further to go. But importantly there is no single road map to follow.
The cost of the virus crisis has been huge. Federal Treasury estimates it is costing the nation $4 billion a week. Treasury and the Reserve Bank tip a 10 per cent contraction of the economy in the first half of 2020. Output could slide 6 per cent in 2020 before lifting 6 per cent in 2021.
The impact on the job market is more worrisome. The jobless rate will peak near 10 per cent in coming months but will only fall to 7 per cent in just over 18 months’ time.
What businesses or industries return first?
Guidelines for COVIDsafe workplaces and activities are already available. And the information and guidelines will be expanded over time.
https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/covid-19-information-workplaces
In the transition to lockdown, there were limits imposed on groups of more than 500 people, and then this was tightened to groups of 10 and then to groups of 2 (numbers varied across states and territories). In the re-start phase, there is likely to be a step back. Social distancing will remain a feature for an extended period. The 4 square metre per person guideline will likely be enforced.
Retailers that marketed goods considered ‘non-essential’ – covering areas like clothing, discount department stores, car dealers – have potential to re-open first. These may be stores that closed voluntarily or were mandated to close.
“White-collar” workers will also return to their offices in mid-to-late May with likely enforcement on staggered work hours and enforcement on social distancing.
A freeing up on travel within states and territories is also likely in the early reboot phase, benefitting regional areas, especially tourism-focussed businesses. Overseas travel (perhaps with the exception of New Zealand) will be amongst the last to re-start.
The Prime Minister has expressed a wish that cafes, restaurants and clubs can re-open relatively soon, no doubt with significant limits and guidelines. But re-opening is not expected until late May/June.
Note that the Northern Territory Government announced that “Stage two activities can commence from noon, Friday 15 May, and include indoor activities for less than two hours, such as:
- Shopping centre food courts.
- Restaurants, cafes, and bars for the consumption of food – excluding gaming areas.
- Organised outdoor training activities for sport teams without physical contact.
- Beauty therapy salons for non-facial services such as nails, massage and tanning.
- Gymnasium.
- Public libraries.
- Places used for religious worship – including indoor weddings and funerals.”
NSW, Victoria and Queensland make take longer to re-open these businesses, given their relatively large population sizes.
Many parts of construction, mining and manufacturing have continued to operate over the past six weeks. But greater ‘normality’ will return over May. In particular, fast tracking of infrastructure projects will be important for each of those industries in the recovery phase.
What has each state and economy announced so far? NSW
On April 28, the Premier announced the following: “From Friday, 1 May up to two adults and their dependent children will be allowed to visit another household.
We will see a return of face-to-face teaching from 11 May, and then will consider accelerating a full return to school as soon as possible.
There have never been restrictions in NSW on what people can and cannot buy, however there may be increased retail activity, with some businesses choosing to re-open. It is important these shops maintain social distancing and hygiene requirements.”
The full list of the current rules is here: https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/what-you-can-and-cant-do-under-rules
On May 3, the Treasurer said agents and vendors able to hold traditional property inspections and on-site auctions from May 9.
Victoria
On May 1, Premier Daniel Andrews said:
“The more tests we can get done in the lead-up to 11 May, the more options we will have to potentially ease some of the rules,” he said.
“If we are going to change those settings, then we need to be really clear on how much virus is out there in the Victorian community that we didn’t previously know about.”
Mr Andrews is aiming to complete 100,000 COVID-19 tests before May 11 to allow an easing of restrictions. 
Queensland
On April 26 Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced:
“From 11.59pm Friday, May 1, Queenslanders will be able to leave their homes for recreation and the distance they can travel has been extended.
For example, Queenslanders will be able to enjoy some relief from stay-at-home rules and:
On May 1 Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk cleared the way for the NRL season to resume on May 28th, dependent on Chief Health Officer advice that the league’s plan is workable, and the NRL’s assurance that players won’t break restrictions. The Premier said the decision gives clubs permission to travel across the Queensland border to play because they are working and because they are in quarantine. The Premier also said work was being done on other issues such as dining out.
On May 4, the Premier announced plans for schools
- May 11: Kindy, Prep, Years 1, 11 and 12 return to learning at school
-  May 15: Assess state-wide response to easing of restrictions
-  May 25: Proposed re-opening to remaining students in remaining grades
On May 5 the Premier issued a media release noting that “Planning continues for the resumption of hospitality and tourism business activity.”
South Australia
On April 27 schools opened for Term 2 on the advice of the Chief Medical Officer.
On May 3 Premier Steven Marshall announced:
“To guide the delicate process of both continuing to move out of the COVID-19 health emergency and restore the social and economic health of the State, the Marshall Government has established a broad high-level transition team.
While maintaining the vigilance of our public health response, the highly credentialed Transition Committee will look at which restrictions should be eased and in what order, as we take the next steps to return the State’s economy and community way of life to the new normal.”
Western Australia
On April 26 Premier Mark McGowan and Health Minister Roger Cook announced an easing of restrictions:
- “Indoor and outdoor gatherings for up to 10 people will be allowed including weddings, outdoor personal training, and open house or display village inspections
- Easing of some of WA's stage 3 restrictions effective Monday, April 27 2020
- Allows families and friends to interact more freely, with good social distancing
- Schools opened for Term 2 on the advice of the Chief Medical Officer.”
“The changes, based on health advice, will mean indoor and outdoor non-work gatherings will be relaxed to enable for up to 10 persons, lifted from the two person only limit, following continued low number of new cases and the encouraging response to COVID-19 in WA.” “The new 10-person rule aligns WA with South Australia.”
Tasmania
On May 1, Premier Peter Gutwein announced Additional North West COVID-19 measures to be lifted: “I am pleased to announce that the additional North West COVID-19 safety measures will be lifted from 12.00am this Monday, 4th May.”
The Premier said at the same time “The Government will make decisions about statewide restrictions in the lead up to 15th May.”
ACT
On May 1 Chief Minister Andrew Barr announced:
“…reasons for Canberrans to be outside their family home will be broadened from this weekend, allowing Canberrans to leave their home for non-essential shopping purposes.
This measure will support retail stores as they re-open (whilst maintaining appropriate physical distancing inside their stores). Many retailers voluntarily closed their doors to support community efforts to suppress the virus. Soon many will re-open and the community is encouraged to support them whilst maintaining physical distancing.
Restrictions on gatherings inside the family home will be relaxed to allow families to visit each other with two adults plus children able to visit outside of those who ordinarily live in a property.
With travel restrictions eased in NSW, Canberrans should only travel outside of the Canberra region to visit family and friends in small groups while maintaining physical distancing. As much as possible, travel outside of the Canberra region should be carefully considered, as someone bringing the virus into the Territory from interstate remains one of the biggest threats to the ACT.”
On schools, the Chief Minister said “we are preparing to move to face-to-face delivery during Term 2 if the circumstances allow us to do that sensibly.”
Northern Territory
On April 27 Chief Minister Michael Gunner announced:
The Northern Territory Government will begin re-opening some parks from Noon on Friday 1 May.
The Chief Minister outlined a transition to a “new normal”:
This transition has three parts:
- Controlling the borders: to keep the Territory safe and to stop coronavirus from spreading, our borders will stay secured.
- Rapid response: a “test, trace and trap” plan to contain any future outbreak, minimising the risk to the community.
- The new normal: Territorians enjoying their lives while also adhering to social distancing, cleaning and hygiene protocols.”
On April 30 the Chief Minister outlined “The Territory’s Roadmap to the New Normal” (http://newsroom.nt.gov.au/mediaRelease/33205)
From 1 May, Stage One adjustments will commence. Stage two activities can commence from noon, Friday 15 May. And from noon, Friday 5 June, restrictions will be eased on further indoor activities. By 5 June all Territory businesses, services, facilities and organisations should have their own COVID-19 Safety Plan.
On May 5 Chief Minister Michael Gunner announced:
“The COVID-19 safety plan checklist for businesses and organisations as part of the Roadmap to the New Normal is now available.
Businesses and organisations seeking to re-open or expand operations as part of stage two of the Roadmap can begin submitting their checklist from today, ahead of opening on 15th May.”
What are the implications for investors?
The focus now shifts from containment and suppression of the virus to rebooting the economy. The process will understandably be long and staggered. The process may differ across states and territories. The process is not without risks. But the price of delaying the reboot too long is getting higher.
Governments now have the processes and infrastructure in place to deal with any lift in the number of virus cases. Businesses may need information on what constitutes a new acceleration phase for cases, so they can stay on top. A reacceleration of cases could prompt a reimposition of lockdown measures or a tightening of rules and regulations.
Investors will need to particularly stay on top of daily information of virus news to gauge implications for companies, sectors and the broader market.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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Rebooting the economy, state by state: CommSec's Craig James

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The NSW Government is inviting community feedback on the second stage of its 24-hour economy liquor law reforms.
The draft Liquor Amendment (24-hour Economy) Bill 2020 aims to create risk-based liquor laws that support business.
Minister for Customer Service Victor Dominello said, “the proposals will help boost the state’s night time economy by removing outdated laws, simplifying licensing processes and creating a new incentives and sanctions system that rewards licence holders with a clear record.” 
“We want pubs, bars and hotels to hit the ground running on the other side, but we are mindful of how rules such as social distancing may need to be accommodated.”
Minister for Jobs, Investment, Tourism and Western Sydney Stuart Ayres said the hospitality sector is a significant employer and lifeblood for many communities, but has been dealt a devastating blow and brought to its knees due to COVID-19.
“COVID-19 has hit the hospitality industry hard and fast. We recognise the importance of streamlining the previously complicated legislation to make it easier for industry to get back on their feet as social distancing restrictions ease,” Mr Ayres said.
“There is now clearly a light at the end of the tunnel for our hospitality sector and this will give them hope for the future.”
Key proposals include:
A new incentives and sanctions system with ongoing fee discounts for licensed venues that maintain a clear record; Removal of outdated live music restrictions; Allow small bars to offer more family friendly services to customers, by permitting minors in certain circumstances; Reducing red tape by aligning liquor licensing and planning processes; and Enhancing same day alcohol delivery regulations.
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Economic reform supports 24-hour nightlife revival post coronavirus

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In recent weeks a growing chorus of Australian commentators has called for social distancing measures to be eased or radically curtailed.
Some have <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/coronavirus-lockdown-hysteria-is-ruining-10-million-lives/news-story/fd5307f58302cf1ab928decb07b2619c">claimed </a>the lives saved by the lockdowns are not worth the damage they are causing to the economy.
Others have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/baby-boomers-won-t-like-it-but-next-step-after-lockdown-is-herd-immunity-20200415-p54k0t">claimed</a> the case for easing is strengthened by the fact many of the hardest hit by COVID-19 are elderly or suffering from other conditions.
Some might expect economists, of all people, to endorse this calculus.
But as economists we categorically reject these views, and we believe they do not represent the majority of our profession.
We believe a callous indifference to life is morally objectionable, and that it would be a mistake to expect a premature loosening of restrictions to be beneficial to the economy and jobs, given the rapid rate of contagion.
It is wishful thinking to believe we face a choice between a buoyant economy without social distancing and a deep recession with social distancing.
In a world with COVID-19, there are no good choices.
The best we can do is limit the spread of COVID-19 as much as practicable and rely on the strength of the government’s balance sheet to cushion the impact on the workers and businesses hardest hit.
Our success to date is a direct result of the measures taken, but we cannot afford to be complacent.
We recognise there are trade-offs on some margins, but we urge the government to work closely with public health experts to carefully determine at what time, in what ways, and in which sectors, to begin lifting restrictions.
There should be no doubt the cost of getting this wrong is very high.
Open Letter from Australian Economists
19 April, 2020
Dear Prime Minister and Members of the National Cabinet,
The undersigned economists have witnessed and participated in the public debate about when to relax social-distancing measures in Australia. Some commentators have expressed the view there is a trade-off between the public health and economic aspects of the crisis. We, as economists, believe this is a false distinction.
We cannot have a functioning economy unless we first comprehensively address the public health crisis. The measures put in place in Australia, at the border and within the states and territories, have reduced the number of new infections. This has put Australia in an enviable position compared to other countries, and we must not squander that success.
We recognise the measures taken to date have come at a cost to economic activity and jobs, but believe these are far outweighed by the lives saved and the avoided economic damage due to an unmitigated contagion. We believe strong fiscal measures are a much better way to offset these economic costs than prematurely loosening restrictions.
As has been foreshadowed in your public remarks, our borders will need to remain under tight control for an extended period. It is vital to keep social-distancing measures in place until the number of infections is very low, our testing capacity is expanded well beyond its already comparatively high level, and widespread contact tracing is available.
A second-wave outbreak would be extremely damaging to the economy, in addition to involving tragic and unnecessary loss of life.
Sincerely,
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alison-booth-153308">Professor Alison Booth</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeff-borland-1079">Professor Jeff Borland</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lisa-cameron-986169">Professorial Research Fellow Lisa Cameron</a>, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/efrem-castelnuovo-145615">Professor Efrem Castelnuovo</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deborah-ann-cobb-clark-729631">Professor Deborah Cobb-Clark</a>, University of Sydney
<a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/ashley-craig/home">Assistant Professor Ashley Craig</a>, University of Michigan
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-edmond-673265">Professor Chris Edmond</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://nisvanerkal.net/">Professor Nisvan Erkal</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-freebairn-90">Professor John Freebairn</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/renee-fry-mckibbin-673270">Professor Renée Fry-McKibbin</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joshua-gans-399">Professor Joshua Gans</a>, University of Toronto
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jacob-k-goeree-562903">Professor Jacob Goeree</a>, UNSW Business School
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/quentin-grafton-1941">Professor Quentin Grafton</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://www.rse.anu.edu.au/about-us/our-people/people/?profile=Simon-Grant">Professor Simon Grant</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/pauline-grosjean-343133">Professor Pauline Grosjean</a>, UNSW Business School
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jane-hall-1280">Distinguished Professor Jane Hall</a>, University of Technology Sydney
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hamilton-155869">Assistant Professor Steven Hamilton</a>, George Washington University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ian-harper-8628">Professor Ian Harper</a>, Melbourne Business School
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Professor Richard Holden</a>, UNSW Business School
<a href="https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/david-johnston">Professor David Johnston</a>, Monash University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/flavio-menezes-4124">Professor Flavio Menezes</a>, University of Queensland
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/warwick-mckibbin-9129">Professor Warwick McKibbin</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://economics.uchicago.edu/directory/simon-mongey">Assistant Professor Simon Mongey</a>, University of Chicago
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-morley-9918">Professor James Morley</a>, University of Sydney
<a href="http://www.josephlyonmullins.com/">Professor Joseph Mullins</a>, University of Minnesota
<a href="https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/profile/140028-abigail-payne">Professor Abigail Payne</a>, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Professor Bruce Preston</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sue-richardson-552530">Emeritus Professor Sue Richardson</a>, Flinders University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stefanie-schurer-333154">Professor Stefanie Schurer</a>, University of Sydney
<a href="https://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/our-people/staff/economics/kalvinder-shields">Professor Kalvinder Shields</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-quiggin-2084">Professor John Quiggin</a>, University of Queensland
<a href="http://www.simonrquinn.com/">Associate Professor Simon Quinn</a>, Oxford University
Economic Advisor James Vickery, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
<a href="http://tomwilkening.com/">Professor Tom Wilkening</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-wolfers-429743">Professor Justin Wolfers</a>, University of Michigan
<a href="https://lens.monash.edu/@yves-zenou">Professor Yves Zenou</a>, Monash University
<hr>
Full list of signatories available on the economists open letter <a href="http://covid19openletter.net/">website</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136686/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hamilton-155869">Steven Hamilton</a>, Visiting Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-edmond-673265">Chris Edmond</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/open-letter-from-174-australian-economists-dont-sacrifice-health-for-the-economy-136686">original article</a>.
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Open letter from 174 Australian economists: don’t sacrifice health for the economy

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In the past week, a sharp decline in sentiment has been seen amongst Australian consumers and business. In the US, President Trump and the market remain optimistic on the ability of their economy to rebound quickly from this crisis, but data to hand is increasingly challenging this view.
Beginning with our business sector, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/April/er20200414BullAustralianbusinessconditionsMarch.pdf">the NAB business survey</a> reported a dramatic decline in confidence, the index declining from -2pts in February to -66pts in March as severe restrictions over trading and social gatherings were implemented. The March level of the index compares to a reading of around -30 at the depths of the GFC, and -24 in the 1990’s recession.
Conditions also fell sharply this month, from 0pts to -21pts. This outcome is worse than the GFC (-17pts), but not as bad as the 1990’s recession (-39pts). All the components of conditions were weak in March, and the experience of businesses across the states was uniform. Unsurprisingly, business is reticent to invest in this climate, the capex expectations index falling to -23, below the GFC low of -20. Fiscal measures introduced to accelerate business investment are then set to struggle.
Turning to the Australian consumer, in April our <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/April/er20200415BullConsumerSentiment.pdf">Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey</a> registered the single biggest monthly decline in the 47 year history of the survey, taking the Index beyond its GFC lows to 75.6, levels only seen during the deep recessions of the early 1990s (64.6) and early 1980s (75.5). As detailed by Chief Economist Bill Evans, it is “pertinent to note that the lows in previous recessions were reached after one to two years of continuous deterioration compared to the one month collapse we have seen here”.
Consumers’ view of the ‘economy, next 12 months’ recorded its biggest monthly fall on record, a 31% drop to 53.7, in line with GFC lows. Households are however still optimistic that this is only a temporary shock, with the ‘economy next 5yrs’ sub-index only down 3.8% to 87 – still above this cycle’s lows of 85.5 averaged during the second half of 2014.
Views on family finances were also hit in April, though the cost was much less severe than for immediate expectations of the economy (down 14.8% for ‘finances, versus a year ago’, and 6.6% for ‘finances in the year ahead’). While households are hopeful regarding their financial position, very clearly they are taking preventative measures when it comes to spending, ‘time to buy a major household item’ plunging 31.6% in the month – also its largest ever shock. As detailed in the survey release, health concerns and social distancing requirements are likely on the minds of consumers, in addition to their finances. 
A similar argument can be posited for housing, with sentiment around the sector having collapsed in April. ‘Time to buy a dwelling’ fell 26.6%, and house price expectations declined by over half (-50.8%). These outcomes are discussed in more detail by <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42983">Chief Economist Bill Evans</a> in our weekly video update, along with the responses to a number of special questions on the experience of consumers in this outbreak – <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/April/er20200415BullConsumerSentiment.pdf">also highlighted in the bulletin</a>. 
Turning to the labour market, while <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42990">the unemployment rate</a> was little changed in March at 5.2%, Westpac-MI unemployment expectations continued to rise, another 8% increase seen in April. Helpfully, the current level for the index of 130 is well below that seen in the GFC and the 1990’s recession, circa 180 and 170 respectively. Presumably, the Government’s JobKeeper package has given households some confidence in the labour market. It is also likely that households view the threat of job loss as temporary because it is being caused by a virus. On this point, while Westpac expect the unemployment rate to peak around 9% mid-2020, by the end of 2020, it should be back near 7%.
The significance of the JobKeeper program to Australia’s economic outlook was a key topic discussed by Chief Economist Bill Evans in our inaugural <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42984">Market Outlook in conversation podcast</a>. In this edition, Bill was joined by our Head of Financial Market Strategy Robert Rennie who covered off on key financial market developments, particularly with respect to the Australian and US dollar.
Turning to the US, the economic situation they face as a result of COVID-19 is becoming more and more severe. In just four weeks, around 22 million US citizens have now filed for unemployment benefits after losing their jobs. This loss will see the unemployment rate rise from 4.4% at March to around 15% in April. Further job loss has to be expected, and so the peak for the employment rate will be closer to 20% come mid-2020. Despite the benefit of precautionary buying in March, retail sales have already been hit hard, falling 8.7% in March, the worst outcome on record. Another, likely larger, decline will be seen in April, with durable goods and discretionary services expected to be the hardest hit.
While a sharp reduction in consumption is the prime shock coming to the US as a result of this crisis, investment in housing and the business sector has also been hit hard, and will remain weak for some time. Both Westpac and the IMF expect a contraction in US GDP of around 6.0% in 2020. While the IMF forecast a V-shaped recovery, circa 5.0% growth in 2021, we are much more circumspect, instead anticipating year-average growth around 1.0%. Hot spots such as New York City look to be coming under control, but the virus has now spread across the US, making it difficult to trace and contain. This will delay a return to normal conditions, with wide-ranging economic consequence. 
ELLIOT CLARKE is a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42750" target="_blank">senior economist at Westpac</a> 
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COVID-19’s terrible toll: Elliot Clarke

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GUEST OBSERVER
Less than a month after restrictions first took effect, Australia appears to have contained the spread of COVID-19 more successfully than we could have possibly imagined.
But we’ve done so at unimaginable cost: large swathes of the economy have been shut down, leaving the livelihoods of millions of Australians on hold indefinitely. With new cases now on the decline, the conversation at today’s National Cabinet meeting will turn to what can reopen, and when.
But the economic costs of re-opening prematurely could be enormous.
The <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">least costly</a> economic strategy is eliminating COVID-19 from Australia altogether. Growing epidemiological evidence suggests it may be possible for us to eliminate coronavirus within the next two to three months.
New Zealand is pursuing such a strategy.
Australia’s state and territory governments should <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/covid-19-there-are-only-two-options-from-here-one-is-more-deadly/">explicitly declare</a> that they want to eliminate the virus, and maintain harsh lockdown restrictions until new cases are down to zero or close to it.
And in the meantime we’ll accrue invaluable intelligence from other countries about how best to emerge from lockdowns, and plan accordingly.
There’s no doubt this strategy would have big short-term economic costs.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that severe shutdowns like our level-three restrictions wipe out almost a quarter of economic activity, costing Australia’s economy about 2% of annual GDP for each month they remain in place.
This means a three-month shutdown would <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-oecd-estimates-suggest-a-22-hit-to-australias-economy-135026">shave</a> six percentage points off Australia’s annual GDP.
But the Government’s <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/04/covid-19-australias-fiscal-response-is-now-among-the-biggest-in-the-world/">unprecedented</a> package of economic support means many firms and households are well-placed to weather a short but severe storm.
Short term pain, long term gain
There’s also enormous economic upside if we eliminate the virus and the economy can more or less return to normal.
Schools and offices could re-open, as could bars, cafes and restaurants. Import and export goods would flow freely. International students could still come to Australia with quarantine and testing, and being COVID-free would mean more would choose Australia over alternative destinations.
Not everything could return to normal. International tourism would take a hit, because tight border controls would be maintained until the pandemic subsides abroad. But international tourism accounts for just 2% of our gross domestic product. And domestic travel would boom.
And while the prospect of 90 days of stage-three restrictions is daunting, it poses fewer economic costs than the alternatives.
Health Minister Greg Hunt has rightly <a href="https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a200413jxwnp/a-cause-for-real-hope-greg-hunt-officially-confirms-australia-is-flattening-the-curve-20200413">ruled out</a> allowing the virus to spread through the community.
Even with a so-called herd immunity strategy, there is little chance that economic life would return to normal for at least 12 months. Spatial distancing would still be needed to ensure our hospitals were not overwhelmed, and fear of infection would prevent many people from going outside. Many businesses would remain closed.
Adopting a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">Goldilocks</a> strategy – where we try to find just the right balance between allowing some economic activity while keeping infections low – would mean fewer die, but would still be bad for the economy.
While there is hope that widespread use of face masks and improvements in tracking and tracing of the disease might change this – there is no certainty.
Sophisticated contract tracing and surveillance were initially effective in helping countries like Singapore to largely stay open, but they too have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/upshot/coronavirus-singapore-thinking-big">since resorted</a> to a lockdown to keep infections under control.
In practice, few sectors currently closed could be reopened in Australia under a Goldilocks strategy.
Modellers at the University of Sydney <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144">estimate</a> that even a 20% reduction in spatial distancing compliance would push rates of transmission back above one (that is, where one infected person on average infects more than one other).
That suggests schools could probably re-open, but many workplaces and university classes may have to stay closed.
As would domestic air travel and much non-essential retail. The political lobbying over which industry should have the privilege to re-open first would also be intense.
And whatever is required to keep infection rates stable would need to remain in place until there was herd immunity or a vaccine – and that probably means for as long as 18 months, assuming either happens.
We’ve a choice of a long or a short shutdown
For 18 months of lighter restrictions to be better for the economy than shutting down for another 2-to-3 months to eliminate the virus, the economic costs of a lighter shutdown need to be six to nine times less damaging to the economy than a severe shutdown.
That would require an almost complete removal of spatial distancing, which isn’t on the table.
If there were extended shutdowns, millions of Australians would come out the other side with significant scarring; many would never work again.
Firms that can endure a three-month shutdown without going bust are unlikely to survive for 12 months without further government support. And the budgetary costs of that support would become much bigger for future generations if extended to 12 months or more.
Relaxing most restrictions without sparking a second round of contagion may be possible in time, but only after making enormous new investments in our ability to identify cases and isolate them quickly.
Economist Paul Romer <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment">argues for</a> universal testing of Americans every two weeks; others <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/-CgXCr8Dz5s8r3E9gijh1uN?domain=americanprogress.org">call</a> for a new digital surveillance state to enforce self-isolation. In each case the technological obstacles are large, and so we should start investing now. Extending the shut down would give us valuable time to prepare if we fail.
It’s commonly assumed that the public health and economic objectives of managing COVID-19 are in conflict. That’s wrong. Eliminating the virus from Australia is the best strategy for our health and for our economy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136488/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644">Brendan Coates</a>, Program Director, Household Finances, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-nolan-575166">Jonathan Nolan</a>, Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/eradicating-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-also-the-best-economic-strategy-136488">original article</a>.
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Eradicating the COVID-19 coronavirus is also the best economic strategy

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EXPERT OBSERVER
introduction
After a roughly 35% plunge from their February high point to their lows around 23rd March, global and Australian shares have had a 15-20% rally. What’s more this rally has occurred despite increasingly bleak economic data ranging from plunges in business conditions surveys or PMIs (see the next chart) to a record 10 million surge over two weeks in claims for unemployment payments in the US. Volatility remains very high but at least we are seeing up and down volatility rather than all down as was the case into mid-March.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/111.png" alt="">
Markets usually lead and so may have already factored in the worst. And we have seen massive fiscal and monetary stimulus over the last few weeks to match the coronavirus threat to economies. So maybe we have already seen the low for shares? Or maybe not? There is still a lot of bad news ahead regarding the virus and the economic hit and we still don’t know how long the shutdown will be for and hence it’s hard to gauge the size and duration of the economic hit, when the recovery will come and what it will be like. What’s more past bear markets have often been interrupted by strong rallies, eg, October/November 2008 saw two 19% rallies in US shares followed by the ultimate low in March 2009. This could be the case here even if we have entered into a bottoming process.
So, what should investors look for in terms of when we can expect a bottom or be at least somewhat confident that the bottom has been reached? Not that anyone will ring a bell at the bottom or that investors will be bullish at the bottom.
The following are what we are looking for:
<ul>
<li>confidence the coronavirus can soon be contained;</li>
<li>measures to minimise collateral damage to the economy;</li>
<li>confidence collateral damage is being kept to a minimum &amp; signs that growth momentum is bottoming; &amp;</li>
<li>technical signs of a market bottom.</li>
</ul>
Confidence the coronavirus will soon be contained
This is important as it will give guidance as to the duration of the shutdowns and their severity and hence the first round hit to the economy. There are several key things to watch:
The severity of suppression measures.
After containment policies (quarantining &amp; contact follow up) failed to control the virus (South Korea may be an exception), most countries have moved on to suppression, ie social distancing. This has been made necessary to allow hospital systems to cope without a blow out in deaths as in Italy. The question is are they being applied rigoursly. The evidence suggests that they are. Of 41 major countries nearly 80% now have severe restrictions in place, including Australia.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/222.png" alt="">
Is suppression working? The best thing to watch for is a turn down in the number of new cases. Italy is a good one to watch as it went into national lockdown around 9 March and if they get it under control it gives other countries hope. And there are some positive signs here with a downtrend in new cases evident in Italy, Spain, Germany, the EU generally and Australia. In the US it’s too early to tell, but it’s New York epicentre is showing a decline in new cases.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/333.png" alt="">
<ul>
<li>Based on China’s experience: 11-21 days after the lockdown new cases peak, and a month or so after that, the shutdown can start to be relaxed, which is why Chinese economic indicators started to improve in March. (While some question the reliability of China’s Covid19 case data, directionally it looks right and lines up with President Xi’s March 10 Wuhan visit &amp; the restart of its economy.)</li>
<li>This would suggest that the lockdown in Italy and maybe even Australia may be able to be relaxed later this month or in May, if the number of new cases continues to trend down.</li>
<li>Of course, if the lockdown is eased too quickly this may risk a second wave of cases (as occurred in relation to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic). To guard against this, quarantining of new cases and contact follow up will have to be aggressive and international travel bans would likely have to remain in place to prevent imported new cases (as China has found). There are two things that could short circuit this.</li>
<li>
Antibody tests. It’s likely the actual number of coronavirus cases is being significantly underestimated because those with mild or no symptoms are not showing up for testing, but mass testing for antibodies to Covid19 would reveal what proportion of the population have already been infected and recovered. They will likely no longer be transmitters of the virus and should be able to return to work. Some estimates suggest that it’s already 40-60% of the Italian and UK populations. If so, there would already be a degree of “herd immunity” making it easier to safely relax the shutdowns. Such testing may still be several months away though.</li>
<li>
Anti-virals or a vaccine. A vaccine may still be 12 months away but anti-virals are being rapidly tested.</li>
</ul>
The bottom line on this is that there are a lot of balls in the air but the decline in the number of new cases in several countries including Australia indicates that shutdowns are working which in turn holds out the hope that they can be relaxed in a month or so (providing containment measures are rigorous). International travel will likely be the last restriction to be lifted.
Policy measures to support the economy
The past month has seen a massive ramp up in monetary and fiscal measures globally and in Australia to support businesses, jobs and incomes through the shutdown period and to keep financial markets functioning properly. These are discussed here and here. Some (eg in Australia) are better than others (eg in the US) but with policy makers committed to doing whatever it takes they provide confidence that second round damage from the shutdowns will be kept to a minimum, which will enable economies to recover once the virus is under control. We rate this as positive, although more may still need to be done.
Collateral damage being kept to a minimum/growth indicators bottoming
There are a range of indicators to track on this front, including:
<ul>
<li>Credit spreads. Corporate &amp; government bond yield gaps need to narrow. They are off their highs, but above normal.</li>
<li>Money market funding costs. As measured by the gap between 3 month borrowing rates and expected official rates these have narrowed in Australia but remain high in the US.</li>
<li>Default rates up only slightly. This is important in terms of assessing whether public support &amp; debt/rent payment holidays are working. It’s too early to tell in most countries.</li>
<li>Daily activity indicators (eg, for energy production and traffic congestion) stabilising. This has been a good indicator in China, but it’s too early in developed countries.</li>
<li>Business conditions PMIs stabilising/improving. They’ve improved in China but are still falling elsewhere.</li>
</ul>
Technical signs of a market bottom
Market bottoms usually come with a bunch of signs.
<ul>
<li>Extreme oversold conditions. This got a tick in March.</li>
<li>Apocalyptic investor sentiment. It’s very negative but maybe not apocalyptic yet.</li>
<li>Signs of falling downwards momentum. This may only become apparent on a re-test of the March low.</li>
</ul>
Signpost table
The following provides a summary. The key ones are in blue.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/444.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/555.png" alt="">
Concluding comment
Many of these signposts tick off positively so we may have seen the low. But given the uncertainty around the length of the shutdown, risks of a second wave and very poor economic data to come it’s still too early to say that with confidence. Trying to time market bottoms is always very hard so a good approach for long term investors is to average in over several months.
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Dr SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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Signposts that indicate when shares have bottomed: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This week, historic negative economic outcomes were seen in both Europe and the US. Financial markets instead focused on the wave of stimulus announced, particularly in the US.
Of the data released, the first focus for markets was the Markit PMI’s for key developed nations. Whereas the shock ex-China to date has been concentrated in manufacturing, services were hit hard in the March preliminary reading. In Japan, the service PMI fell from 46.8 in February to 32.7 in March; in the US, a similar decline was seen from 49.4 to 39.1; while in Europe, the loss was a staggering 24pts from 52.6 to 28.4 – a very unfavorable comparison to the GFC low of 39.2 in 2009. 
While severe, these shocks pale in contrast to the deterioration seen this week in US initial jobless claims. As we flagged last week, the first few weeks of the US contagion have seen a never-before-seen increase in US unemployment. Following the 71k increase in the last report to 282k claimants, in this update a further 3 million new claimants were reported, taking initial claims to 3.28 million. Prior to this outcome, the historic peak was 695k back in 1982.
Note that while the 2020 initial outcome is almost five times the scale of the 1982 peak, the labour force has only grown 50% since. Moreover, this week’s outcome will not be a one off. It is still early days in this crisis; job losses have been staggered; and there have been numerous reports of claim backlogs to be assessed. Clearly the US is facing into an immense shock. 
It is not surprising then that the US Congress has responded with a stimulus package also of historic proportions ($2 trillion). This will include support to all low and middle-income households in the form of cash handouts; extended unemployment benefits; loans to small business which can be forgiven in time if the funds are used for certain purposes such as keeping on staff; as well as loans to support large business cash flow.
These are significant measures, but are unlikely to materially reduce the shock coming to their economy. This is in part because the stimulus will only partly offset the loss of income from job loss and as confidence’s decline will hit discretionary spending hard. But primarily it is because the US COVID-19 case count continues to rise rapidly, meaning the country is nowhere near a point of stabilisation which it can begin to recover from. Highlighting this, the New York Times today reported that the US now has more confirmed cases than China experienced. Moreover, the global state of affairs also remains dire, with severe cases continuing to increase rapidly across Europe.
The shock to growth coming from abroad is also having a clear impact on Australia and New Zealand. But more pressing is the domestic spread of COVID-19. The current situation for our two nations has been summarised this week by Westpac Group Chief Economist Bill Evans and New Zealand Chief Economist Dominick Stephens. For Australia, further detail on the expected depth of the deterioration in our labour market and economy was also released by Westpac Economics, as was our forecast of the implications for the Federal Government’s fiscal position and government debt.
For our labour market, given the implementation of stricter restrictions on our economy, we now anticipate a rise in the unemployment rate to a peak of 11% by mid-2020, to be sustained through the September quarter. This will come as a result of the loss of over 800k jobs and as the economy contracts by 4.0% over the year to September 2020.  As the economy is restored to a more normal footing in the September and December quarters, activity will bounce and the unemployment rate fall – we believe to 8.8% end-2020 and 8.0% end-2021.
Still, that is a much weaker end point than anticipated prior to COVID-19. Hence, not only will the recession of 2020 hit the Government’s fiscal position, but there will also be a lasting impact. On top of this shock to activity and Government revenue is the cost of stimulus, to steady the economy amid immense uncertainty.
In summary, we anticipate a deterioration in the Federal budget from balance in 2018/19 to a 4.5% of GDP deficit ($90bn) in 2019/20 and a deficit of 8% of GDP ($160bn) come 2020/21. In 2019/20, 2ppts ($40bn) comes as a result of policy stimulus while 2.5ppts ($50bn) is due to the apparent cyclical deterioration. The 2020/21 deficit of 8% of GDP meanwhile includes 3ppts ($60bn) from policy stimulus and 5ppts ($100bn) is due to cyclical deterioration. As a result, the supply of government securities on issue will rise by $250bn to $820bn (40% of GDP) by June 2021.
ELLIOT CLARKE is a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42750" target="_blank">senior economist at Westpac</a> 
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