IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Joel Robinson

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Abadeen has released the whole-floor penthouse crowning its recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences</a> development in Cremorne, bringing the near-300 sqm residence to market for the first time.

Occupying the entire top floor of the boutique Lower North Shore development, the penthouse includes 221 sqm of internal living and a 74 sqm wraparound terrace, with a prized north-facing aspect taking in views across Middle Harbour.

The residence has been completed and fully furnished following a collaboration between Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown and internationally recognised interior designer Jack Freeman, Founder and Managing Director of FREEMAN &amp; CO.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen">Abadeen</a> and Freeman approached the penthouse as a finished home, sourcing furniture, artwork, lighting and objects from Australia and overseas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378718]

Pieces from Parisian design house Pierre Augustin Rose sit alongside contemporary artworks and bespoke lighting, with Freeman drawing on recent visits to PAD Paris and Salone del Mobile Milano for the final collection.

Brown said the aim was to create a penthouse that felt more like a large-scale private home than a traditional apartment.

"The experience begins the moment the lift doors open. You're welcomed into an elegant dining room before the home opens into an extraordinary living space framed by sun-drenched harbour views.

"Every time someone walks through the front door they pause. It's not just the view, it's the incredible sense of space, the warmth created by the northern sunlight that fills the interiors, and the way every room connects so effortlessly.

"It has all the proportions of a luxury home, while delivering the effortless lifestyle and personalised experience of living in a world-class six-star hotel, combined with the simplicity and convenience of apartment living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378713]

A secure lift provides exclusive access to the penthouse level, opening to a dedicated arrival foyer and dining area before the residence expands into its main living and entertaining spaces.

Floor-to-ceiling glazing runs across the northern side of the home, connecting the interiors with the terrace and Middle Harbour outlook.

The penthouse also features a fireplace and substantial chef's kitchen, while the wraparound terrace has been designed to accommodate both everyday outdoor living and larger-scale entertaining.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378720]

Freeman said the interiors had been deliberately kept restrained to complement the scale, natural light and outlook already established by the architecture.

"The penthouse is a serene study in quiet luxury," Freeman said.

"The interior pairs soft, sculptural forms with warm timber, pale stone and a restrained neutral palette. Curated artwork and metallic accents add depth, while abundant natural light creates a calm, effortlessly refined atmosphere. In my world, less is always more."

Freeman said the approach was centred around collecting individual pieces rather than simply decorating the apartment.

"Every material, every object and every piece of furniture has been curated with intention. I am a true believer in collecting versus decorating.

"The architecture already provided extraordinary natural light, remarkable volume and an uninterrupted connection to Middle Harbour. Our role was to complement those qualities with unique one-of-a-kind pieces of fine art and collectible design sourced from recent travels around the world."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378694]

Among the collection are solid bronze sculptures by Lorenzo Quinn, alongside a curated crystalware collection and pieces sourced from international design fairs.

Park Residences sits opposite Cammeray Golf Club, Cammeray Croquet Club and Grand Slam Tennis Cammeray, around 300 metres from Neutral Bay Village and its established collection of restaurants, cafés and retail.

Brown said the combination of a whole-floor floorplan, northern aspect and proximity to Neutral Bay was becoming increasingly difficult to find on the Lower North Shore.

"Completed whole-floor penthouses with a sun-drenched north-facing aspect and sweeping Middle Harbour views are exceptionally rare," Brown said.

"Add a quiet position opposite golf, croquet and tennis facilities, a level walk to Neutral Bay Village and only minutes to the CBD, and you have a lifestyle that's incredibly difficult to replicate.

"This is a home that offers the privacy and generosity of a luxury residence together with the convenience of one of Sydney's best-connected harbourside locations."

The penthouse will be exclusively marketed by SRM Residential.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=114246]

Abadeen unveils penthouse at Park Residences in Cremorne

Dwelling Values

<html><body>
Sydney home prices kept up their strong capital growth in February, as capital city home values rose a further 1.4 percent during the month, according to the monthly CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index.
The strong capital gain over February was led by Canberra (+3.2 percent) and Sydney (+2.6 percent), with Melbourne (+1.5 percent) and Hobart (+1.0 percent) also returning significant increases. 
In contrast, dwelling values were down over the month across Darwin (-4.3 percent), Perth (-2.4 percent) and Brisbane (-0.4 percent). Meanwhile, the rental market remains soft, pushing yields to a record low. The average dwelling yield across the combined capital cities fell to 3.2% over the month, a new low.
Summarising the capital gains in home values, CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said, “At a combined capital city level, growth conditions have been rebounding since the middle of last year when, on two separate occasions, interest rates were cut, and investor demand commenced trending higher.” 
“Prior to capital gains accelerating half way through last year, the growth trend had been moderating, reaching a cyclical low point over the twelve months ended July 2016 when the annual change in capital city dwelling values slowed to 6.1 percent.” 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/1/CoreLogicIndex.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/1/CoreLogicIndex.png" alt="">
A new cyclical high for annual growth rates 
February’s results mark a new high point in the current growth cycle, with capital city home values increasing by 11.7 percent over the past twelve months, said Lawless.
“The annual growth rate across the combined capitals hasn’t been this strong since the twelve months ending June 2010,” he said.
“In Sydney, where the annual rate of growth is now 18.4%, this is the highest annual growth rate since the twelve months ending December 2002 when the housing boom of the early 2000’s started to slow.” 
The latest CoreLogic results take the current housing growth cycle into its 58th month. Since capital city dwelling values started to rise in June 2012, dwelling values have increased by a cumulative 47.3 percent, ranging from a 74.9 percent capital gain in Sydney, to a net rise of 6 percent in Perth. 
Sydney, and to a lesser extent, Melbourne, have remained at the top of the capital gain tables over the past two cycles. Since the beginning of 2009, Sydney dwelling values have more than doubled, rising by 104.5 percent while Melbourne values are 87.7 percent higher. The next best performing capital city over the same period was Canberra where dwelling values have risen by a comparatively modest 37.4 percent. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/1/CoreLogicHighs.png" alt="">
“The strong growth conditions across Sydney have provided a substantial wealth boost for home owners, however, the flipside is that housing costs are becoming increasingly out of reach. This is especially true for price-sensitive segments of the market such as first time buyers and low income families,” Lawless said. 
“Affordability challenges are most pronounced across the Sydney housing market where, based on September 2016 data, dwelling prices are almost 8.5 times higher than gross household incomes. The second most expensive capital city, Melbourne, has a dwelling price to income ratio of 7.1.” 
In contrast, the February results show that the cities with greater exposure to the mining downturn have continued to record weak housing market results. Dwelling values slipped lower in Perth and Darwin over the month, taking the cumulative decline in values since these markets peaked in 2014 to 10 percent and 11.5 percent respectively. Brisbane also recorded a fall in dwelling values over the month, however values have been slowly trending higher despite the negative monthly result. 
As a consequence, housing affordability has shown a marked improvement in these regions, with the dwelling price to income ratio tracking at 5.7 in Brisbane, 5.5 in Perth and 4.5 in Darwin based on September 2016 data. 
Rental yields slipping to record lows 
While dwelling values continued to rise, weekly rents remained comparatively soft. As a result, downward pressure has been placed on rental yields. The average dwelling yield across the combined capital cities fell to 3.2% over the month, which is a new record low. Five years ago, the average capital city yield was a full percentage point higher at 4.2 percent. 
Sydney has shown the most significant compression in rental yields over the past five years, with the average gross yield reducing by 150 basis points to reach 2.9 percent (2.7 percent for houses and 3.7 percent for units). 
Lawless said, “Despite the record low rental yields on offer, investor demand remains high, suggesting investors are likely to be relying on a negative gearing strategy to compensate for their cash flow losses. It also indicates that investors are speculating on future capital gains.” 
“The latest housing finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics indicates that investors comprise approximately 57% of new mortgage demand across New South Wales (excluding refinanced loans). This is substantially higher than the long run average, which is slightly above one third.” 
Commenting overall on the February results, Lawless said, “The renewed strength in the housing market is corroborated by a range of other data points such as auction results, low advertised stock levels and rapid selling times.” 
According to CoreLogic auction results, 2017 began on a very strong footing with capital city clearance rates generally tracking in the high 70 percent to mid-80 percent range from week to week. The results of ‘Super Saturday’ last week saw an unprecedented number of auctions for February; clearance rates reached a new high for 2017 despite the large number of auctions held. 
Advertised listing numbers remain low across the hottest housing markets, with total residential advertised listings in Sydney tracking 11.3 percent lower than the same period a year ago, Melbourne total listings are 5.1% lower than last year, Hobart listings are down by 35 percent and Canberra advertised stock levels are 6.2 percent lower than a year ago. 
Lawless said, “Low levels of advertised stock for sale at a time when buyer demand remains strong is creating a sense of urgency among buyers, which is adding to the upward pressure on prices. This helps to explain why clearance rates are so high, and private treaty sales are so rapid across the strongest markets.” 
Growth likely to moderate later this year 
“Overall, the latest results from the CoreLogic Hedonic Index highlights the performance diversity across Australia’s housing market. The continuation of the capital gains rebound is likely to create further discomfort among policy makers, particularly in light of the growing debate around affordability and the high level of demand from investors.” 
“I remain of the view that housing market conditions will moderate during 2017 due to affordability constraints impacting on housing demand, as well as higher supply levels and an eventual slowing of investment demand brought about either through changed policies from Australian lenders or via regulatory changes aimed at slowing credit growth across the investment sector.”
At around the median price of $635,000 a three bedroom house at<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-act-kambah-124457326" target="_blank"> 8 Sholl Place</a>, Kambah (above) was sold yesterday for $609,000. 
Similarly a four bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-act-amaroo-124657490" target="_blank">11 Cooloola Street</a>, Amaroo (below) was sold last week for $635,000, having last traded for $439,000 in 2004.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/11%20Cooloola%20Street.jpg" alt="">
At around the median price of $405,000 a two bedroom unit at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-act-watson-124626206" target="_blank">49/23 Aspinall Street</a>, Watson (below) was sold last week for $401,500, having last traded for $165,000 in 2008.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/49_23%20Aspinall%20Street.jpg" alt="">
Similarly a two bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-act-belconnen-124227770" target="_blank">309/80 Chandler Street</a>, Belconnen (below) was sold two week ago for $402,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/309_80%20Chandler%20Street.jpg" alt="">
</body></html>

prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Capital city home values rise nearly 12 percent in a year, hitting new cyclical high: CoreLogic  

<html><body>
The annual growth trend in capital city dwelling values reached a new cyclical high with an increase of 11.7 percent over the twelve months ending February 2017, according to CoreLogic’s latest report.
The property data firm says that the monthly CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index reported a further rise in the value of capital city dwellings in February, with values rising 1.4 percent over the month.
The strong capital gain over February was led by Canberra (+3.2 percent) and Sydney (+2.6 percent), with Melbourne (+1.5 percent) and Hobart (+1.0 percent) also returning significant increases.
In contrast, dwelling values were down over the month across Darwin (-4.3 percent), Perth (-2.4 percent) and Brisbane (-0.4 percent).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/1/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-01%20at%2010.16.47%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-01%20at%2010.16.47%20am.jpg" alt="">
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic head of research, said prior to capital gains accelerating half way through last year, the growth trend had been moderating, reaching a cyclical low point over the twelve months ended July 2016 when the annual change in capital city dwelling values slowed to 6.1 percent.
He said the February results mark "a new high point in the current growth cycle," with capital city dwelling values increasing by 11.7 percent over the past twelve months.
“The annual growth rate across the combined capitals hasn’t been this strong since the twelve months ending June 2010," he said.
“In Sydney, where the annual rate of growth is now 18.4 percent, this is the highest annual growth rate since the twelve months ending December 2002 when the housing boom of the early 2000’s started to slow.”
Canberra had the highest February price growth.
At around the median price of $635,000 a four bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-act-amaroo-124657490" target="_blank">11 Cooloola Street</a>, Amaroo (below) was sold last week for $635,000.
Similarly a three bedroom house at<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-act-kambah-124457326" target="_blank"> 8 Sholl Place</a>, Kambah (above) was sold yesterday for $609,000. It last sold for $439,000 in 2004.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/8%20Sholl%20Place.jpg" alt="">
At around the median price of $405,000 a two bedroom unit at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-act-watson-124626206" target="_blank">49/23 Aspinall Street</a>, Watson (below) was sold last week for $401,500. It last sold for $165,000 in 2008.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/49_23%20Aspinall%20Street.jpg" alt="">
Similarly a two bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-act-belconnen-124227770" target="_blank">309/80 Chandler Street</a>, Belconnen (below) was sold two week ago for $402,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/309_80%20Chandler%20Street.jpg" alt="">
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

New high point in national property price growth cycle: CoreLogic's Tim Lawless

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
A retrospective look at median dwelling values across the suburbs of Australia shows the bracket creep that has occurred over the current growth cycle, highlighting the deterioration of more affordable housing across the capital cities over the past five years.
At the end of 2016, 7.6 percent of suburbs nationally had a median house value under $200,000 and 5.9 percent of suburbs had a median unit value below $200,000. 
To put these figures into some perspective, 11.4 percent of suburbs had a median house value of at least $1 million and 3.0 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of at least $1 million.
Over the five years to the end of 2016, there has been a substantial decline in the proportion of suburbs with a median value below $400,000. 
At the end of 2011, 53.5 percent of suburbs had a median house value of less than $400,000 and 69.8 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of less than $400,000. 
By the end of 2016, the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 had fallen to 41.0 percent for houses and 55.3 percent for units.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-1.jpg" alt="">
A five year retrospective look at the individual capital cities highlights the significant shift in the proportion of suburbs with a median value under $400,000, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
In 2011, the proportion of total suburbs with a median house value below $400,000 across each capital city was: 21.2 percent in Sydney, 28.9 percent in Melbourne, 40.9 percent in Brisbane, 40.5 percent in Adelaide, 31.1 percent in Perth, 69.2 percent in Hobart, 2.1 percent in Darwin and 1.1 percent in Canberra. 
Units offer a more affordable option highlighted by the proportions of suburbs values below $400,000 at: 38.8 percent in Sydney, 48.2 percent in Melbourne, 81.7 percent in Brisbane, 94.3 percent in Adelaide, 59.8 percent in Perth, 92.7 percent in Hobart, 53.3 percent in Darwin and 44.6 percent in Canberra.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-2.jpg" alt="">
By 2015, the proportion of suburbs with a median house value below $400,000 had shifted to: 1.2% in Sydney, 12.2% for Melbourne, 31.4% in Brisbane, 29.5% in Adelaide, 15.5% in Perth, 55.7% in Hobart and 0.0% in both Darwin and Canberra. 
For units, the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 in December 2015 were recorded at: 10.9% in Sydney, 34.9% in Melbourne, 64.4% in Brisbane, 87.7% in Adelaide, 37.2% in Perth, 88.4% in Hobart, 51.4% in Darwin and 50.5% in Canberra.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-3.jpg" alt="">
The proportion of suburbs with a median house value of less than $400,000 at the end of 2016 was recorded at: 0.1% in Sydney, 6.3% in Melbourne, 29.2% in Brisbane, 28.0% in Adelaide, 18.9% in Perth, 52.1% in Hobart and 0.0% in Darwin and Canberra. 
For units the proportions were recorded at: 6.5% in Sydney, 31.8% in Melbourne, 62.7% in Brisbane, 85.1% in Adelaide, 46.4% in Perth, 88.4% in Hobart, 57.6% in Darwin and 45.8% in Canberra.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-4.jpg" alt="">
Five years ago every capital city except for Darwin and Canberra had at least 20% of suburbs with a median house value of less than $400,000. 
At the end of last year, it was virtually impossible to find houses for less than $400,000 in Sydney, Darwin and Canberra while less than 7% of suburbs had a median house value below $400,000 in Melbourne. 
Across each city there has been a substantial decline in more affordable housing over the past year despite the fact that outside of Sydney and Melbourne there has been only moderate value growth over the period.
Even units have recorded a fairly substantial decline in the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 over the past five years.
At the end of 2016, looking at both houses and units, 20.5% of Sydney suburbs had a median value of less than $600,000 compared to 38.5% of suburbs having a median value of at least $1 million. 
To further highlight deteriorating housing affordability in Sydney, 34.6% of suburbs had a median unit value of less than $600,000 at the end of 2016. 
In each other capital city, a higher proportion of suburbs had a median house value of less than $600,000 than the proportion of suburbs with a median unit value of less than $600,000.
If you are earning a relatively low income in Sydney and are looking to buy a house or unit, you are competing for a rapidly declining pool of housing stock across the city. 
The pool is also declining across the remaining capitals, albeit not at the same pace of decline as in Sydney.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Sydney's property bracket creep makes for declining housing options: Cameron Kusher

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/72867/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Moral panic over recent increases in visibly homeless people in central Melbourne has brought to the fore the critical shortage of affordable housing across the metropolitan areas of Australia’s wealthiest cities.
But living on the street is only the tip of the iceberg. Many more households are living in insecure and/or overpriced accommodation. Their plight is due to an undersupply of appropriately priced, sized and situated rental housing.
The Commonwealth government is reportedly planning to scrap the National Affordable Housing Agreement with the states. Without a clear alternative, the weakness of state policies, which lack clear targets and mechanisms for providing more and better affordable housing, adds to the problem. One state, Victoria, still doesn’t have an affordable housing strategy.
South Australia’s strategy has 15 percent inclusionary zoning as one of several mechanisms to achieve affordable housing targets. Western Australia provides regular progress updates on the regional targets of its Affordable Housing Strategy 2010-2020. Tasmania adopted a ten-year strategy in 2015.
New South Wales has had affordable housing policies in place since 2009. The NSW government has a new plan to build more social housing and improve existing stock. Queensland released a draft strategy in March 2016.
While these state policies vary in their success, Victoria does not even have a strategy to critique.
Victoria’s toxic planning legacy
No doubt Premier Daniel Andrews inherited several industrial-strength cans of toxic planning waste when Victorian Labor won office in November 2014. This legacy came not only from the Liberals, but from the earlier Bracks-Brumby Labor government.
Under the 2000s Labor government, the fourth new metropolitan strategy in four decades, Melbourne 2030, largely failed to stop sprawl. The main excuse for sprawl – that increased and largely unregulated housing supply would magically enable affordability – had become a sad joke.
As former Labor adviser Joel Deane’s book Catch and Kill shows, inability to respond to basic public concerns about planning and transport was perhaps the most significant factor in Labor’s 2010 election defeat.
If Labor had been ineffective in creating new affordable housing, the Liberals’ planning decisions between 2010 and 2014 were disastrous. Australia’s largest urban renewal site – Fishermans Bend – was drastically up-zoned from Industrial to Capital City (also known as “Anything Goes”). They did this without extracting a cent in added value from landowners towards affordable housing – or any other infrastructure.
Huge parts of the southeastern suburbs – Liberal strongholds – were essentially walled off from new housing, even though these had some of the best school and transport infrastructure to serve a rapidly growing population. Hundreds of job cuts meant the civil service lost experience and capacity to do better.
A long wait for action on affordable housing
The Victorian Labor 2014 election platform stated:
All Victorians have a right to safe, affordable and secure housing.
Yet in more than two years since its election, the Labor government has not completed any of the major reforms that would enable affordable housing.
Plan Melbourne’s “refresh” has not been published in its final form. The Residential Tenancies Act still has to be strengthened. The residential zone review hasn’t been completed.
Perhaps most disturbingly, we are still waiting for the results of the early announcement that the state treasurer was going to work with the planning and housing ministers to develop an integrated affordable housing strategy.
A new advisory body, Infrastructure Victoria, published a 30-Year Infrastructure Strategy in December 2016. “Social housing” (public and non-profit) was one of its top three priorities. However, compared with principles of “a good plan”, the affordable housing section of this strategy does not pass the test.
According to the literature on plan analysis, good plans should have seven elements: a clear vision; specific goals; a fact base informing alternatives; a spatialised sense of what goes where; a very specific implementation plan, with costs, timelines and responsible authorities; a monitoring and evaluation plan; and specific horizontal (across all parts of government, the private sector and civil society) and vertical (alignment between national, state and local government) integration.
Vancouver shows how to do it
The City of Vancouver’s Housing and Homelessness Strategy 2012-2021 is an example of an affordable housing plan that ticks the boxes. It has a clear vision embodied in the strategy’s subtitle:
A home for everyone.
The strategy sets specific numeric housing targets. These cover everything from supportive housing for homeless people with mental disabilities, to social housing, market rental and home-ownership options.
These targets are based on a robust and transparent analysis of housing trends across the city. While all subsequent neighbourhood plans are intended to achieve a mix of dwelling cost and size, there is a particular emphasis on locating supportive housing near areas with significant homeless populations.
The partnerships with other levels of government, private developers and non-profit providers are comprehensive. A new Vancouver Affordable Housing Authority has been established to coordinate these efforts. Since the report’s adoption, further mechanisms such as a community land trust have been established. Annual reporting against the targets is available on the City of Vancouver’s website.
In contrast, Infrastructure Victoria is an advisory body to state government, not an implementation agency. Its vision of a “thriving, connected and sustainable Victoria where everyone can access good jobs, education and services” begs the question of how progress towards these attributes would be measured.
Infrastructure Victoria does estimate an extra 30,000 affordable homes are needed over the next ten years. But it admits this figure is not well justified, due to a lack of good information on affordable housing deficits.
It recommends further work on an affordable housing plan with specific funding streams. However, this cannot really be expected to be the plan that “tackles [the] affordable housing shortage”, as its own website boasted of the draft report.
At best, Infrastructure Victoria’s plan is a baby step. It does clearly state the importance of social housing as critical infrastructure. It also begins to justify mechanisms that could achieve some scaling up of affordable housing outcomes.
But the public housing waiting list now has more than 35,000 names. About 120,000 households receiving Commonwealth Rent Assistance are still unable to afford living where they do. That includes 50,000 households in the lowest income bracket. And another one million new households are expected to move into Victoria within the 30-year timeframe of the infrastructure strategy.
This all means that baby steps will not be enough to prevent rapidly increasing homelessness.
 
Carolyn Whitzman is professor of Urban Planning, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carolyn-whitzman-9944" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

States drag feet on affordable housing, with Victoria the worst

<html><body>
The rise in home prices is expected to moderate in 2017, especially Sydney and Melbourne, where prices will take a breather from their double-digit growth, according to a forecast by leading economists in the 2017 BusinessDay Scope survey. 
The CoreLogic measure for home price increase will grow by just 4.9 per cent in Sydney, while for Melbourne it will be 4.3 per cent, a far cry from the 15.5 per cent growth for Sydney and 13.7 per cent for Melbourne in 2016. 
The BusinessDay survey carried by The Sydney Morning Herald is made up of forecasts from 27 leading economists. Over time its average predictions have proved to be more accurate than those of any of its individual members.
Some forecasters expect home prices to fall — Nicki Hutley (Urbis Consulting), Stephen Koukoulas (Market Economics) and author, Professor Steve Keen -- while two expect no growth (Jakob Madsen of Monash University and Richard Robinson from the property specialist BIS Shrapnel), the report said.
The highest forecasts are for further growth of 12 percent -- Julie Toth of Australian Industry Group and Renee Fry-McKibbin of Australian National University -- for Sydney and Mardi Dungey (University of Tasmania) for Melbourne.
The range of housing investment forecasts is also wide, with the highest being a growth of 11 per cent (Neville Norman of the University of Melbourne) while the lowest is a slide of 5.5 pe cent (from the Housing Industry Association).  The average forecast is a low 1.9 percent growth. 
The general consensus also says the Reserve Bank won’t adjust interest rates at its first meeting for the year on Tuesday and has very little pressure to adjust them at any time during the year. 
Below is the results of the survey given to the economists.
<table style="width: 472px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Name
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Company
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
Sydney home prices year to Dec (%)
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
Melbourne home prices year to Dec (%)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Stephen Anthony
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Industry Super
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5.4
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
7.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Sally Auld
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
JP Morgan
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
David Bassanese
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
BetaShares
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Paul Bloxham
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
HSBC
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Michale Blythe
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Commonwealth Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
7
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Paul Dales
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Capital Economics
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
8
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
10
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Besa Deda
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Bank of Melbourne
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
6
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Bill Evans
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Westpac
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Shane Oliver
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
AMP Capital
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
4
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Sun-Lin Ong
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
RBC Capital Markets
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Riki Polygenis
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
National Australia Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
3.9
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Richard Yetsenga
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
ANZ Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Janine Dixon
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Victoria University
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Mardi Dungey
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Tasmania
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
10
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
12
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Saul Eslake
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Tasmania
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Renee Fry-McKibbin
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Australian National University
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
12
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
10
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Steve Keen
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Kingston University, London
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
0
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-4
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Guay Lim
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Melbourne Institute
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
6
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Jakob Madsen
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Monash University
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
0
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Bill Mitchell
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Newcastle
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
8
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Neville Norman
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
University of Melbourne
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
9
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
11
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Nicki Hutley
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Urbis Consulting
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-3
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Stephen Koukoulas
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Market Economics
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Richard Robinson
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
BIS Shrapnel
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
0
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Shane Garrett
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Housing Industry Association
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Margaret McKenzie
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
ACTU
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="118">
Julie Toth
</td>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Australian Industry Group
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
12
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
10
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" valign="top" width="279">
Low
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
-5
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
-6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" valign="top" width="279">
High
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
12
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
12
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" valign="top" width="279">
AVERAGE
</td>
<td valign="top" width="87">
4.9
</td>
<td valign="top" width="106">
4.3
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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Home price growth to take a breather in 2017, says survey of economists

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National Australia Bank has raised its expectations for house price growth in 2017 while also saying that apartment values will likely fall less than expected as further rate cuts will continue to support the market.  
The country’s fourth-largest mortgage lender said the strength of the Sydney and Melbourne markets continue to surprise and predicted solid albeit much slower, growth in prices.
NAB has raised its expectations for house price growth this year to 3.4 percent, while narrowing the loss it expects on apartment prices to 0.8 percent from 1.6 percent, citing improved sentiment from real estate professionals in its latest NAB Residential Property Index and expecting a continuation of last year's rate cut-driven demand. 
It dismissed the idea of sharp or sudden falls in prices, saying these would only happen if unemployment or interest rates surged, which it said was unlikely. However, even the revised figures represent a cooling from last year's capital city average of 11.6 per cent growth for houses and 5.9 per cent growth in apartment prices. 
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut the benchmark cash rate from the current record-low 1.5 per cent to 1 per cent by year-end as it fights weak inflation and as housing construction, which buoyed the economy last year, slows. 
"Most market commentators have been surprised by the strength in the Melbourne and Sydney property markets in the second half of 2016," said Riki Polygenis, NAB's head of Australian economics. "Because momentum is so strong, that's coming through in the survey in terms of the broad index that measures sentiment within the survey. We're still expecting a moderation in house prices going into 2017 but it is a modest revision upward from where we were".
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/01/NABExpertViews.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/01/NABExpertViews.png" alt=""> 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/01/NABResiIndexbyState.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/01/NABResiIndexbyState.png" alt="">
 
The revised forecasts were part of the bank's latest quarterly survey of 250 property industry professionals. While the overall survey of sentiment left the headline Residential Property Index unchanged at a reading of 15 from the September quarter, underlying that was a weakening of sentiment in NSW, Queensland and WA, and a strengthening of sentiment in Victoria and (to a lesser extent) SA and NT. 
"Sydney and Melbourne will both see solid, albeit much slower, growth in prices, while Brisbane and Adelaide are forecast to cool a little," the report said. "Perth will remain very weak as house prices decline by another 2.7 percent this year, as the market continues to feel headwinds from the mining sector, slower population growth and ample housing supply."
Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart would be the best performers for units, the report said. Unit prices would fall 2.7 percent in Melbourne and 1.8 percent in Brisbane as a result of oversupply of new apartment product in the market, but the worst performance would still be in Perth, where apartment prices would likely fall 3.8 percent, it said. 
"Prices are generally expected to be fairly weak for apartments across the country in 2017," it said. "The record pipeline of apartment construction in Sydney naturally presents a significant downside risk to the forecast, but substantial pent-up demand for housing should support the market, while the relative affordability of apartments (in the country's most expensive market) could also trigger a shift in demand by some buyers."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/01/NABHedonicPriceForecast.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/01/NABHedonicPriceForecast.png" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/01/NABHedonicUnitForecast.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/01/NABHedonicUnitForecast.png" alt="">
Housing affordability remained the largest constraint on new housing development in Victoria, Queensland and SA/NT. In NSW, affordability and tight credit were seen as the biggest hurdles. In WA, the ability of price gains to be sustained was regarded as the biggest constraint.  
Separate figures from data provider Domain on Tuesday showed affordability worsened for buyers in Sydney, where the median house price topped $1.1 million. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/01/NABResiIndex.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/01/NABResiIndex.png" alt="">
The fourth quarter also marked the first increase in foreign buyers' share of the residential market in a year. 
In the three months to December, foreign buyers accounted for 10.9 percent of all new property purchases, up from 10.2 percent in September and the highest level since the three months to March. In established housing markets, their share rose to 7.6 percent from 6.4 percent in the September quarter and the highest level since the last quarter of calendar 2015, NAB said.
While the apparent boost in demand from foreign buyers, particularly Chinese ones, reflected the improved sentiment in the local residential market, the true extent of foreign demand was hard to measure, Ms Polygenis said. 
"It's very difficult to square up with reports that Chinese authorities are cracking down on capital outflows by households out of China," she said. "It's very difficult to know how exactly the figures from this survey translate through to actual demand on the ground. The official data we get from [the official Foreign Investment Review Board] is very delayed."
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NAB forecasts 3.4 percent price growth for houses in 2017, with falls in units less likely 

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GUEST OBSERVER
According to CoreLogic data Australian home price momentum has started the year on a solid note with capital city dwelling prices up 0.7 percent month on month in January or 10.7 percent year on year.   As has been the case for the last four years this remains dominated by Sydney and Melbourne where prices are up 1 percent/mom/16 percent/yoy and 0.8 percent/mom/11.8 percent/yoy respectively.
Other cities are far more moderate although Hobart is looking stronger with prices up 1.4 percent/mom/7.8 percent/yoy.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-01%20at%201.15.27%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-01%20at%201.15.27%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Unit price increases have slowed in Melbourne to 2.8 percent/yoy presumably reflecting supply increases but remain very strong in Sydney at 13.1 percent/yoy.   The continuing strength in Sydney and Melbourne property prices coming on the back of a clear acceleration in lending to investors and high auction clearance rates will clearly add to RBA concerns about financial stability. While a surge in housing supply to record levels will act to slow the property market this is still yet to become clearly apparent (except perhaps in Melbourne unit prices).
In the meantime the focus around APRA tightening its macro prudential measures in order to slow investor activity in the Sydney and Melbourne markets, in order to provide the RBA with ongoing necessary flexibility on interest rates, is likely to intensify. This could take the form of APRA lowering its threshold for the stock of lending to investors from the currently level of 10 percent year on year.   We remain of the view that the RBA will cut interest rates again but not until May, but this likely to require either some slowing in property price momentum or a further tightening in APRA’s macro prudential policies. Meanwhile, the AIG’s manufacturing conditions PMI slipped back to 51.2points in January from a surprisingly strong 55.4 in December. This series is normally very volatile but it remains at a reasonable level and well above the lows of late last year.
SHANE OLIVER is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/news/olivers-insights" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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Continuing strength in Australian house prices: Shane Oliver

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Combined capital city dwelling values rose 0.7 percent for January with Sydney recording the highest annual capital gains with dwelling values up 16 percent over 12 months according to CoreLogic.
CoreLogic's Hedonic Home Value Index for January 2017 found since the growth cycle commenced in June 2012, Sydney dwelling values have increased by a cumulative 70.5 percent.
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic head of research said the largest month-on-month gains were recorded in Hobart (+1.4 percent), Sydney (+1.0 percent) and Melbourne (+0.8 percent).
"On a quarterly basis, the CoreLogic January index results confirmed that all capital cities recorded a rise in dwelling values, with Hobart in the lead, recording a 5.8 percent rise in dwelling values over the three months to the end of January. Sydney (+2.7 percent) and Melbourne (+2.4 percent) also posted strong increases over the rolling quarter," he said.
"The annual trend in dwelling value appreciation remained steady when compared with last month.
"The annual growth rate across the combined capital cities was 10.7 percent over the twelve months ending January 2017, compared with 10.8 percent over the previous rolling twelve month period.
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“While the growth trend in smaller cities such as Hobart can show higher levels of volatility, clearly the Hobart housing market is now well into its growth cycle. Strong housing market conditions are being driven by positive affordability of housing, as well as improving economic conditions and stronger migration trends.” 
"For Perth and Darwin, the rise in dwelling values over the rolling quarter may hint at a bottoming of the downturn, evident since 2014.
"Since dwelling values peaked in these markets they have reduced by a cumulative 7.7 percent in Perth and 7.5 percent in Darwin through to January 2017. Perth dwelling values were 2.1 percent higher over the past three months and Darwin values were up 1.8 percent.
“Buyers still have a great deal of leverage in these markets, with listing numbers remaining high, long selling times and high rates of discounting. However, in another indication that conditions may be moving through the bottom of the cycle, transaction volumes moved higher across both markets prior to the seasonal downturn in December and January, whilst the average selling time reduced from previously higher levels. With economic and demographic conditions remaining weak in these markets, a recovery in dwelling values is likely to be a slow process.” 
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<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-01%20at%2010.02.54%20AM.png" alt=""> 
 "Gross rental yields slipped to a new record low across the combined capitals index in January, with the gross yield on a house now recorded at 3.20 percent, falling from 3.50 percent a year ago and 4.12 percent five years ago.
"The gross yield on a unit also reached a new record low in January, recorded at 4.01 percent across the combined capitals; down from 4.25 percent a year ago and 4.86 percent five years ago.
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“While rental yields plumb new lows, investment in the housing market has been consistently ratcheting higher which implies that investors are speculating on further capital gains in the housing market."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-01%20at%2010.05.47%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-01%20at%2010.05.47%20AM.png" alt="">
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Sydney's price growth gets even stronger in 2017 with opening 16 percent annual gain

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December 2016 saw capital city dwelling values rise by 1.4%, taking the annual capital gain for 2016 to 10.9%; the highest growth rate for a calendar year since 2009.
Factoring in gross rental yields and capital gains, housing as an asset class, earned a total annual return of 14.7% based on the combined capital cities index results.
Across Australia’s capital cities, the annual change in dwelling values for 2016 ranged from -4.3% in Perth to 15.5% in Sydney, with Melbourne and Hobart also showing annual capital gains higher than 10%.
Capital city growth rates have also shown a growing divergence between the broad housing product types.
Over the past twelve months we have seen capital city house values rise by 11.6%, while unit values have increased by roughly half the pace at 5.9%.
The divergence in growth rates is the most distinct in Melbourne and Brisbane, where concerns around unit oversupply have eroded buyer confidence.
Melbourne house values are up 15.1% over the year compared with a 1.7% rise in unit values, while Brisbane house values are 4.0% higher over the year, with unit values falling by -0.2%.
Australia’s regional housing markets generally did not experience the same growth conditions as the capital cities, with annual growth to November recorded at 2.8% across the combined regional markets. Regional New South Wales showed the strongest growth conditions, with non-capital city house values rising 7.3% over the 12 month period to November 2016.
The remaining rest-of-state regions showed relatively sedate conditions, with values rising by half a per cent across regional Victoria, 1% across regional Queensland and 1.1% across regional South Australia. Regional Western Australia recorded a 7% fall in house values over the year. Those regional areas with intrinsic ties to the mining and resources sector have continued to record weaker housing market conditions since the end of the mining infrastructure boom, with Perth and Darwin recording the weakest housing market conditions across the capital cities.
Since values peaked in these markets during 2014, values have fallen by a cumulative 7.9% in Perth and 5.9% in Darwin.
More recently both these markets have shown signs of moving through the low point of their respective downturns, with values rising by 2.8% and 5.9% respectively over the final quarter of 2016.
Based on the annual housing market results, it is clear that housing markets across Australia have responded to regional differences in economic and demographic trends; strong population growth and economic activity have driven value growth in Sydney and Melbourne, however, more recently strong growth trends have spread to Hobart and Canberra, as well as many of the coastal and lifestyle markets where values are now also rising swiftly.
Post Global Financial Crisis, the CoreLogic index results show that Sydney’s dwelling values have almost doubled, rising by 97.5% since January 2009, whilst Melbourne dwelling values have increased by 83.5% over the same time frame.
Every other capital city has seen dwelling values rise at substantially lower rates over this period, highlighting just how strong the Sydney and Melbourne housing market conditions have been over the past eight years.
Sydney-siders saw dwelling values increase by approximately $10,000 per month over the past year, creating a significant boost in wealth for home owners; at the same time we’ve seen mounting affordability challenges for aspiring home owners.
The recent CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report shows Sydney dwelling prices were 8.3 times higher than annual household incomes and households were dedicating an average of 44.5% of their income to service a mortgage (based on an 80% loan to valuation ratio and the average discounted variable mortgage rate).
Tim Lawless heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia.
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

2016 dwelling value growth rates divergent even within the same capital city: Corelogic's Tim Lawless

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December 2016 saw capital city dwelling values rise by 1.4%, taking the annual capital gain for the year to 10.9%.
CoreLogic calculated it was the highest growth rate for a calendar year since 2009.
"Factoring in gross rental yields and capital gains, housing as an asset class, earned a total annual return of 14.7% based on the combined capital cities index results," Tim Lawless, the CoreLogic head of research said.
Across Australia’s capital cities, the annual change in dwelling values for 2016 ranged from -4.3% in Perth to 15.5% in Sydney, with Melbourne and Hobart also showing annual capital gains higher than 10%.
“Capital city growth rates have also shown a growing divergence between the broad housing product types.
"Over the past twelve months we have seen capital city house values rise by 11.6%, while unit values have increased by roughly half the pace at 5.9%.
“The divergence in growth rates is the most distinct in Melbourne and Brisbane, where concerns around unit oversupply have eroded buyer confidence.
"Melbourne house values are up 15.1% over the year compared with a 1.7% rise in unit values, while Brisbane house values are 4.0% higher over the year, with unit values falling by -0.2%.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/03/Graph%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/03/Graph%201.jpg" alt="">
The difference in Sydney between houses and units was houses up 16.7% and units up 9.6%, the report for the year noted. 
Lawless noted Australia’s regional housing markets generally did not experience the same growth conditions as the capital cities, with annual growth to November recorded at 2.8% across the combined regional markets.
Regional New South Wales showed the strongest growth conditions, with non-capital city house values rising 7.3% over the 12 month period to November 2016.
According to Mr Lawless, the remaining rest-of-state regions showed relatively sedate conditions, with values rising by half a per cent across regional Victoria, 1% across regional Queensland and 1.1% across regional South Australia.
Regional Western Australia recorded a 7% fall in house values over the year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/03/Graph%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/03/Graph%202.jpg" alt="">
“Those regional areas with intrinsic ties to the mining and resources sector have continued to record weaker housing market conditions since the end of the mining infrastructure boom, with Perth and Darwin recording the weakest housing market conditions across the capital cities.
“Since values peaked in these markets during 2014, values have fallen by a cumulative 7.9% in Perth and 5.9% in Darwin.
"More recently both these markets have shown signs of moving through the low point of their respective downturns, with values rising by 2.8% and 5.9% respectively over the final quarter of 2016."
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