The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Dwelling Values

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Hobart home values are tipped to rise 9.2 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent in 2018 according to the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast, 2017Q1.
The report said Hobart’s property market has gained traction this year as wage growth accelerated and the unemployment rate trended lower.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/11/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-12%20at%208.44.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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"Aided by a lower Australian dollar, tourism has buttressed the local economy," the report said.
"Home values are expected to rise 9.2 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent in 2018. However, apartments will likely fall 0.9 percent in 2017. 
"Population growth in Tasmania has picked up, driven in part by stronger interstate in lows.
"This is helping to boost demand for services and tourism, supporting employment growth and pushing up house prices as demand grows.
"State final demand was relatively upbeat at 2.3 percent in 2016. However, the higher participation rate also pushed up the unemployment rate to a peak of 7.2 percent in August before it trended down in the final months of the year.
"Plans to relocate a major university campus should boost construction activity in 2017."
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Hobart’s property market gains traction: CoreLogic-Moody's

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GUEST OBSERVER
Those who find Sydney a tad rich don’t have to go too far to find major markets with greater affordability and good growth prospects.
Newcastle has a rising economy, a strong property market and appears to be settling into a sustained period of growth.
The city, about 160km north of Sydney, presents an appealing formula for property investors: relatively affordable prices, an overall solid growth record and major impetus from economic activity in and around the city.
It has delivered steady price rises over the past three years and in the past 12 months several Newcastle suburbs have recorded double-digit median price growth. There’s more to come, I think.
Key projects keeping the Newcastle economy strong include the CBD revitalisation, residential construction, upgrades to transport infrastructure and expansion of the Newcastle port.
Newcastle is already the world’s biggest coal export port and major upgrades to export facilities occur regularly. A $1 billion upgrade to the Newcastle Airport and RAAF Base is also under way.
The airport – where the runway is shared with the RAAF Base Williamtown – is already a major employer, with around 3,000 military and civilian personnel working at the base.
Newcastle is Australia’s seventh largest city and one of its oldest. It has a busy harbour, many beaches and plenty of elegant historic buildings. Despite its reputation as an industrial city, Newcastle is ranked the sixth most visited place in Australia, attracting 9.6 million visitors per year.
It thrives as part of the Hunter Region, which is the largest economic base in NSW outside of Sydney. The Hunter region is also well known for its primary industries, notably equine breeding and winemaking. It’s also a key area for mining and power generation.
But in recent years, much of Newcastle’s employment growth has been experienced within the services sector, especially in health and the tertiary education sector.
Generally, Hotspotting regards Newcastle as one of Australia’s most under-rated markets. It has strong prospects as an affordable alternative to Sydney, offering an attractive beach lifestyle, proximity to the Hunter Valley and to Port Stephens, plus solid job prospects in a growing economy.
The impetus of the State Government’s Urban Renewal Strategy for Newcastle has become clearly evident; building activity has been rising for the past 3-4 years – especially with unit construction – as the city strives towards higher-density living to cater for population growth.
Over 100,000 new dwellings will be needed in the Lower Hunter region by 2031, according to the NSW State Government.
The affordability of Newcastle relative to Sydney is shown in the median house prices in the Mayfield suburbs ($445,000 to $484,000), Shortland ($380,000), Wallsend ($415,000) and Waratah ($500,000), as well as the median unit prices in New Lambton and Waratah (both $380,000), and Adamstown ($405,000).
There are good prospects for real estate in Newcastle, based on extensive spending on infrastructure and property developments.
Newcastle has recently been the beneficiary of investment activity, largely stimulated by the $6.55 billion State Government investment mandate covering projects such as the new light rail system on Hunter Street, the transport interchange at Wickham and construction of the Newcastle City University Campus.
A June 2016 map of Newcastle building activity showed 28 residential projects with a combined value of $1.6 billion in the construction pipeline, with more proposals in planning. Around 3,000 apartments will be added to the city’s housing stock as a result, including 1,200 in the west end.
Work on revitalising the CBD began in December 2014, with the $73 million transport interchange at Wickham expected to open late in 2017. The interchange will integrate trains, buses, taxis, light rail, cyclists and car drop-off and pick-ups, alongside a light rail service from Wickham to the beach.
The Hunter Street Mall is also receiving a serious makeover, transforming the CBD into 50 percent residential and 50 percent commercial/retail. Included in the plans are an “eat street”, an entertainment precinct and around 500 apartments.
The State Government plans to move sections of Newcastle University into the CBD to help revitalise the inner-city.
Key projections for the university over the coming decade include increasing its student numbers to 40,000, making it one of the top three regional universities in Australia.
Construction has started on the $95 million NewSpace campus, with the NSW Government contributing $25 million towards the cost. By 2020, the university expects to have moved its business, law and creative arts faculties entirely to the CBD.
All this activity is helping to keep the Newcastle economy vibrant, providing a strong underpinning to a growth property market.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can  <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3Cspan%20style=/'display:%20none;/'%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3EThis%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3C/');%20document.write('span%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3E">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Housing affordability and price growth prospects in Newcastle

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Sydney apartment and home values are set for a minor correction, according to the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast, 2017Q1.
The report predicts detached home values are expected to decline 1.4 percent in 2018, with apartment prices will likely fall 1.2 percent.
According to the report, Sydney's strong local economy has been the key driver of real estate demand. 
"The labor market is approaching full employment, with a jobless rate of 4.7 at the end of 2016," it said.
"Furthermore, rents have stabilised after a drop in the first half of 2016.
"Sydney’s rental prices grew 1 percent over the month in January. Overall, detached-home and apartment prices in the city are expected to increase 7.2 percent and 7.5 percent in 2017 respectively.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-10%20at%2010.07.10%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-10%20at%2010.07.10%20AM.png" alt="">
"But prices are set for a minor correction.
"Detached-home values are expected to decline 1.4 percent in 2018, while apartment prices will likely fall 1.2 percent. Although we do not expect a steep decline in prices, Sydney’s property market will likely stagnate through to 2020 as interest rates begin to normalise.
"The degree of correction will likely be uniform across apartments and detached houses. Although the stream of oncoming apartment supply has accelerated—more than 150,000 apartments have been approved compared with 70,000 detached houses being approved—unit prices have grown more slowly than detached-home values.
"From 2013 to the end of 2016, apartment values have risen 46 percent, but those for detached homes have jumped 67 percent."
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Sydney prices set for a minor correction: Moody's

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Detached housing values across the capital cities is forecast to increase 5.6 percent in 2017 according to the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast, 2017Q1.
According to the forecast, detached housing values are tipped to increase around 7.2 percent in 2017 following a 10.9 percent gain in 2016.
The report said Apartment values are forecast to grow 7.5 percent, after a 10 percent increase in 2016.
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"Slower growth in apartment values in Melbourne relative to detached houses suggests buyers are already pricing in expected supply," the report said.
"Detached housing values in Melbourne are forecast to grow 7 percent in 2017 after an 11.3 percent increase in 2016, and apartment values are forecast to grow 3.4 percent, after a 4.6 percent increase in 2016. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-10%20at%209.52.34%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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"Home values in Melbourne remain buoyant; prices rose 12.8 percent from January 2016 to January 2017.
"However, unit prices rose 2.8 percent during the same period.
This situation suggests that the coming supply of apartments has already dampened value growth.
"Apartment values will rise 3.4 percent in 2017, and a period of stagnation will follow through to 2020. Detached-home values are expected to rise 7 percent in 2017, followed by a steady decline through to 2020.
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"After a strong showing in 2016, Brisbane’s property market will cool in 2017 and 2018. The mining slowdown continues to weigh on job growth, and unemployment in the city’s local economy is expected to remain elevated at around 6 percent in 2017. 
"Apartment values are set to slow more sharply than detached-home values. 
"The slight divergence stems from the prominent increase in incoming housing supply. Historically, for each apartment approved, 1.96 houses were approved. However, since 2012, the trend has reversed sharply, and there were 1.3 units approved for each house. 
"Consequently, detached-home values will likely rise 3.3 percent in 2017 and a further 1.2 percent in 2018. 
"The oncoming supply from 2016 will cause apartment prices to remain at in 2017. The Brisbane property market will likely recover from 2018 onwards, supported by population growth."
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"For Sydney, the strengthening local economy has been the key driver of real estate demand.
"The labor market is approaching full employment, with a jobless rate of 4.7 at the end of 2016. Furthermore, rents have stabilised after a drop in the rst half of 2016; Sydney’s rental prices grew 1 percent over the month in January. Overall, detached-home and apartment prices in the city are expected to increase 7.2 percent and 7.5 percent in 2017 respectively."
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Capital city detached housing values tipped to increase 5.6 percent: Moody's

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GUEST OBSERVER
When renovating for profit, never rely on a selling agent’s estimate of renovated value.
Buyers should do their own research to establish the ceiling price of fully-renovated properties in the suburbs they are looking to buy.
You can’t rely on selling agents to give you an accurate estimate of the renovated value of a property.
Not only is it in their nature to be very bullish with sale prices as no one wants to list their property for sale with a pessimist; it’s also in their clients’ financial interest for them to be bullish.
They want to paint the property in the best possible light to encourage you to make an offer on it. 
The other problem is that it’s also an unqualified estimate as they may interpret what you intend to do with the property as more high end than you are actually planning.
Many property experts are predicting that unrenovated houses will be the most sought-after property purchases in 2017 as buyers shy away from an oversupply of new apartment buildings.
Those properties in need of renovation will be even more popular this year especially if they are livable, allowing DIY renovators to move in and reside onsite whilst undertaking renovation works over time.
When you’re renovating for profit, adding value is the name of the game.
Unfortunately you can’t add unlimited value to a property because there is a limit as to what the market will pay no matter how good it looks.
Once a home has reached its ceiling price for the accommodation it offers, buyers will not pay more.
When you’re undertaking comparable market analysis you need to establish the ceiling price of fully renovated properties that are similar to the ones you’re targeting.
Be mindful of the top values and resist the temptation to overspend.
Tips when searching for an unrenovated property:
<ol>
<li>Get to know the price difference between renovated and unrenovated properties in your chosen area so you know what you can spend and still not overcapitalise.</li>
<li>Find out which streets to avoid and the unique pockets that attract higher prices.</li>
<li>Understand the value of desirable features: parking, views, proximity to shops, schools, parks and public transport.</li>
<li>Get lots of ideas for improvements for your property by looking at the features of other homes that are for sale.</li>
</ol>
 
Patrick Bright is the Director of buyer’s agency EPS Property Search and can be contacted <a href="https://www.epspropertysearch.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Never rely on a selling agent's estimate of renovated value: Patrick Bright

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GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.4 percent in March and was up 12.9 percent over the year.
Prices rose in all eight capital cities with Canberra and Darwin up the most (up 3.1 percent). Regional house prices by 0.8 percent in February (latest available).
Manufacturing: The Performance of Manufacturing index eased from 15-year highs, down by 1.8 points to 57.5 in March. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. This was the sixth consecutive month of expansion.
Home price data is important for retailers, especially those focussed on consumer durables. The manufacturing data provides guidance for companies in the Industrials sector.
What does it all mean?
The economic data has certainly started off the week on a healthy footing. Stronger home prices in March while manufacturing activity barely eased from 15 year highs.
It may be no surprise to see that home prices continue to lift across most capital cities. But what was clearly surprising was the magnitude of the lift in prices. Probably even more surprising was that home prices rose in all eight capital cities. Across the nation home prices rose by a substantial 1.4 per cent in March, matching a similar result in February and December 2016.
In fact over the four months to March home prices have accelerated by 4.9 percent – the strongest four-month period in 18 months.
Across the capital cities, it was encouraging that Darwin and Hobart featured heavily when it came to the strength in home prices as opposed to Sydney and Melbourne.
Interestingly the key resource states saw a rebound in home prices, although annual growth remained weak. The sustained lift in commodity prices may help to alleviate some of the weakness in home prices in coming months.
Overall policymakers will keep a close eye on the housing sector in the early part of 2017, and will prefer to see more balanced house price growth across the nation. In particular, a lift in regional house prices would be a positive outcome. Annual growth in home prices across regional centres was a healthier 4 per cent over the past 12 months.
Click to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%2011.45.04%20AM.png" alt="">
What do the figures show?
Home prices
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.4 per cent in March and was up 12.9 per cent over the year.
In regional Australia, house prices rose by 0.8 per cent in February and were just 4 per cent higher than a year ago. (Regional prices cover just houses and data is up to the end of February). 
In capital cities, house prices rose by 1.5 per cent in March while apartment prices rose by 0.9 per cent. House prices were up 13.4 per cent on a year ago and apartments were up by 9.8 per cent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $613,000 and the average unit price was $512,200.
Dwelling prices rose in all eight capital cities in March: Hobart (up 3.1 per cent), Darwin (up 3.1 per cent), Melbourne (up 1.9 per cent), Canberra (up 1.4 per cent), Sydney (up 1.4 per cent), Perth (up 1 per cent), Adelaide (up 0.4 per cent) and Brisbane (up 0.2 per cent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 18.9 per cent); followed by Melbourne (up 15.9 per cent), Canberra (up 12.8 per cent); Hobart (up 10.2 per cent); Adelaide (up 3.4 per cent); and Brisbane (up 3.7 per cent). Prices fell in Perth (down by 4.7 per cent) and Darwin (down 4.4 per cent)
Total returns on capital city dwellings rose by 16.7 per cent in the year to March with houses up 17.1 per cent on a year earlier and units up 14.3 per cent.
Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index fell from 15-year highs, down by 1.8 points to 57.5 in March. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. This was the sixth consecutive month of expansion.
AIG notes “All seven activity sub-indexes in the Australian PMI® expanded in March (seasonally adjusted). Expansions in new orders (62.6 points) and sales (57.7 points) strengthened. Production expanded while slowing from more robust growth last month (57.6 points) as did employment (54.1 points). Deliveries (52.9 points) and exports (51.1 points) eased to more modest growth, while inventories turned up in March (55.5 points).”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%2011.45.46%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%2011.45.46%20AM.png" alt="">
“Comments from manufacturers in March indicate that demand continues to recover. Positive factors for demand include: higher prices for coal and other commodities; large infrastructure projects; the NBN rollout; stronger defence spending and stronger activity in the agricultural sector. Energy prices (particularly electricity) continue to play havoc with manufacturers. Concerns about energy pricing and security of supply are eroding profitability and confidence. Other input prices are increasing (including steel prices), which is putting manufacturers’ margins under further pressure. Export growth appear to be easing off for some manufacturers, compared to the strong surge of exports seen in 2016.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
  The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
  The Australian Industry Group compiles the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
  Activity in the manufacturing sector is encouraging, especially the lift in new orders that has been identified in recent months. All the published data and anecdotes indicate that business conditions have markedly improved since the flat spot recorded for the economy in mid-2016.
  Investors are once again driving key housing markets such as Sydney and Melbourne. But there are more risks, with investors relying on expected capital appreciation for returns on their investment rather than rising rents. More apartments are being built, supply will catch up to demand and growth of home prices will ease over the next few years. Investors need to be aware of the risks including recent actions by regulators to slow housing demand.
  The broad-based health of Australian housing markets reduces the potential for further rate cuts. While fixed- term lending rates have lifted, it is still too early to canvas possible rate hikes from the Reserve Bank. 
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Home prices accelerate: Savanth Sebastian

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March combined capital city dwelling values increased 1.4 percent over the month, according to CoreLogic, with the combined capital city annual growth rate at 12.9 percent -  the highest annual rate of growth since the twelve months ending May 2010. 
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic head of research said while Sydney and Melbourne recorded the strongest growth conditions, the annual rate of capital gains has also moved into double-digit growth in both Hobart (+10.2 percent) and Canberra (+12.8 percent).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%209.48.11%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%209.48.11%20AM.png" alt="">
"On an annual basis, dwelling values in Perth fell by -4.7 percent and by -4.4 percent in Darwin where economic conditions and migration trends remain weak across both cities," he said.
"Adelaide and Brisbane also saw dwelling values continue to trend higher at a sustainable pace with increases of 3.4 percent and 3.7 percent respectively in these cities over the past twelve months.
"The March results highlight the continued resurgence in the pace of capital gains. 
“This became evident through the second half of 2016, fueled largely by lower mortgage rates and a rebound in investment activity. Since June last year, the CoreLogic capital city hedonic index has increased by 9.3 percent.”
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He said the diversity of performance between houses and units is also a current key feature of the housing market.
"Across the combined capitals index, house values were 13.4 percent higher over the past twelve months compared with a 9.8 percent rise in unit values," he said.
“The disparity in growth rates is more significant in those cities where high new unit supply is more apparent. In Melbourne, house values were 17.2 percent higher over the past twelve months compared with a 5.2 percent increase across the unit sector. Similarly, in Brisbane, house values were 4.0% higher over the past twelve months compared with a 0.2% rise in unit values over the same period.”
“The weaker growth conditions within the unit markets’ sector reflect heightened levels of new supply across specific inner city precincts and also suggests that consumer confidence has been negatively affected by the warnings of a potential unit oversupply.”
“Given the recent policy announcements from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) are aimed at dampening investment related credit demand, we can expect lending conditions for investment purposes will tighten, particularly for investors with small deposits or those applying for an interest only loan. Additionally, higher mortgage rates handed down by Australia’s major banks may contribute towards cooling some of the exuberance being seen in the largest capital city housing markets.”
“Furthermore, organic constraints in the market are becoming more pronounced. As examples, record-low rental yields, which imply dwelling values are out of balance with rents, and heighted affordability constraints are preventing some prospective buyers from participating in the market.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%209.51.12%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%209.51.12%20AM.png" alt="">
“Record-high levels of apartment supply are also likely to act as a brake on capital gains in those precincts where supply levels are high.
“Stronger buyer demand can be attributed to the rising number of investors participating in the market compared with a year ago as well as the lower cash rate stimulus and population growth. However, overall transaction numbers remain approximately 15.5 percent lower than their recent 2013/14 peaks.”
 “A shortage of advertised stock can contribute to upwards pressure on prices, as prospective buyers experience FOMO (fear of missing out) which reduces a buyers ability or willingness to negotiate on prices and causes some urgency in the decision making process.” 
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Annual growth rate higher than 10 percent in half of Australian capital cities: Corelogic

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AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver has forecast a slowdown in property price gains in Sydney and Melbourne this year ahead of a 5-10 percent price fall starting next year.
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The call comes in the wake of the Australian Prudential Regulation Auth­or­ity’s announcement on Friday of tougher lending standards, including a crackdown on interest-only home lending.
Dr Oliver said it was no surprise to see APRA increase its focus on the investor lending market, but told The Australian the moves had come too late.
“The latest moves by APRA, coming on the back of bank mortgage rate hikes over the last two weeks, the likelihood of action to boost affordability in the May budget (including a cut to the capital gains tax discount), and the surge in unit supply at a time of silly prices, are all likely to result in a slowdown in property price gains in Sydney and Melbourne this year ahead of a 5-10 per cent price fall starting next year some time,” he said.
Based on the latest APRA data, CBA is the bank with the highest annual home loan growth of 7.6 per cent, compared to system growth of 7 per cent.
Westpac was up 6.4 per cent, ANZ 5.7 per cent and NAB 5.2 per cent.
CBA’s interest-only loans are growing at 42 per cent and account for 40 per cent of its book.
Home loans account for 62 per cent of all bank loans.
The tighter interest only slowdown measures from APRA came as the RBA’s latest quarterly spreadsheets on household ­finances, released on Friday, showed that average debts were now 89 per cent greater than ­incomes, up from 67 per cent greater just four years ago. 
While household debts have risen by 32 per cent in the past five years, the value of household assets­ have risen even faster, by 51 per cent. Household net worth has gained 57 per cent over that period, from $5.6 trillion to $8.8 trillion, translating to an increase from $666,864 per household to $954,550 in just five years.
The booming housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne are a large part of this increase, with the value of the housing stock rising by 47 per cent, from $4.2 trillion to $6.1 trillion. The size of the housing stock has increased by 8.5 per cent over that period, so the ­increase per house has been about 33 per cent.
Oliver has previously predicted 5 to 10 percent price falls.
Last October he noted the surge in prices and debt has led many to conclude a crash is imminent.
"But we have heard that lots of times over the last 10-15 years.
"Several considerations suggest a crash is unlikely.
"First, we have not seen a generalised oversupply and at the current rate we won’t go into oversupply until around 2017-18.
"Second, despite talk of mortgage stress the reality is that debt interest payments relative to income are around 2004 levels.
"Third, Australia has still not seen anything like the deterioration in lending standards seen in other countries prior to the GFC.
"In fact in recent years there has been a decline in low-doc loans and a reduction in loans with high loan to valuation ratios."
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Oliver noted it is dangerous to generalise before saying nationwide price falls are unlikely until the RBA starts to raise interest rates again.
"This is unlikely before 2018, at which point we are likely to see a 5 percent or so pullback in property prices as was seen in the 2009 and 2011 down cycles.
"Sydney and Melbourne having seen the biggest gains are more at risk and so could fall 5-10 percent around 2018."
 
For more real estate traps and tips visit <a href="https://realestatetraps.com.au/">realestatetraps.com.au</a>
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Shane Oliver again tips 5 to 10 percent property price falls for Sydney and Melbourne

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House price growth in Sydney and Melbourne increased further in March according to CoreLogic, with Sydney house prices up 19 percent compared to the same month last year and Melbourne 16 percent.
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic head of research, said the early results come after a strong rebound in housing market conditions through the latter half of 2016 and into 2017.
"The strong capital gain results are further evidenced by a continuation in low stock levels, high auction clearance rates and strong investment demand," he said.
"March's figures reflected a strong rebound in housing market conditions that picked up in the latter half of last year and continued into this year."
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Sydney home prices up 19 percent in year to March: CoreLogic

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Sydney and Melbourne property markets have hotted up again and high house prices and household debt leave Australia vulnerable. But a property crash remains unlikely.
Expect average home prices to fall 5-10% once an interest rate tightening cycle gets underway in 2018-19. Sydney and Melbourne unit prices are most at risk.
More macro prudential measures to slow property demand are likely on the way. Alleviating poor affordability over the long term is best addressed by boosting supply. 
The cooling in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets evident in late 2015 in response to macro prudential tightening deployed by APRA has proved ephemeral. Price gains have reaccelerated and auction clearance rates &amp; lending to property investors have rebounded. Over the last five years Sydney dwelling prices have risen a ridiculous 73 percent and Melbourne prices are up 47%. As a result the Australian housing market continues to cause much angst around poor affordability and high household debt. This note looks at the main issues. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.57.38%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.57.38%20PM.png" alt="">
Is Australian housing overvalued?
On most measures Australian housing is overvalued:
On the basis of the ratio of house prices to rents adjusted for inflation relative to its long term average Australian houses are 39% overvalued and units 13% overvalued.
According to the 2017 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey the median multiple of house prices in cities over 1 million people to household income is 6.6 times in Australia versus 3.9 in the US and 4.5 in the UK. In Sydney it’s 12.2 times and Melbourne is 9.5 times.
The ratios of house prices to incomes and rents are at the high end of OECD countries. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.58.38%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.58.38%20PM.png" alt="">
Why is it so expensive and household debt so high?
There are two main drivers of the surge in Australian home prices over the last two decades. First, the shift from high to low interest rates has boosted borrowing and hence buying power. This has taken Australia’s household debt to income ratio from the low end of OECD countries 25 years ago to the top end. Second, there has been an inadequate supply response to demand. The following chart shows a cumulative shortfall relative to underlying demand had built up by 2014 and is still yet to be worked off despite record construction lately. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.59.35%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.59.35%20PM.png" alt="">
Consistent with this, while vacancy rates have increased they have only increased to around average long term levels. In Sydney vacancy rates are below average.
What about investors and foreign buyers?
A range of additional factors may be playing a role in accentuating demand beyond that implied by population growth. These include negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, foreign buying and SMSF buying. Negative gearing is just part of the normal operation of the Australian tax system.
However, the interaction with the capital gains tax discount by enhancing the after tax return available to property investment may be resulting in higher investment activity than would otherwise be the case. This may particularly be the case when past property price gains have been strong encouraging investors to think future gains will be too. While commitments to lend to property investors slowed in 2015 after APRA tightened macro prudential controls, this has since worn off. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.00.29%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.00.29%20PM.png" alt="">
Foreign buying is likely also impacting – with indications that it is around 10-15 percent of demand – but it is also concentrated in particular areas and SMSF buying appears to be relatively small. But like lower interest rates, all of these should have a less lasting impact if the supply response was stronger.
Is a crash likely?
The surge in prices and debt has led many to conclude a crash is imminent. But we have heard that lots of times over the last 10-15 years. In 2004, The Economist magazine described Australia as “America’s ugly sister” thanks in part to a “borrowing binge” and soaring property prices. Most recently the OECD has warned of the risks of a property crash. However, the situation is not so simple:
Firstly, we have not seen a generalised oversupply and at the current rate we won’t go into oversupply until 2018 and in any case approvals suggest supply will peak this year.
Secondly, mortgage stress is relatively low and debt interest payments relative to income are around 2003-04 levels.
Thirdly, lending standards have not deteriorated like they did in other countries prior to the GFC. In recent years there has been a reduction in loans with high loan to valuation ratios and interest only loans are down from their peak.
Finally, generalising is dangerous. While prices have surged in Sydney and Melbourne, they have fallen in Perth to 2007 levels and seen only moderate growth in other capitals.
To see a general property crash – say a 20 percent plus average price fall - we need to see one or more of the following: a recession - which looks unlikely; a surge in interest rates - but rate hikes are unlikely until 2018 and the RBA will take account of the greater sensitivity of households to higher rates; and property oversupply – this would require the current construction boom to continue for several years. However, the risks on the supply front are high in relation to apartments.
What can be done to fix it?
Recent RBA commentary strongly hints that more macro prudential measures to tighten lending standards are on the way. These could include a further lowering in the 10% growth cap on the stock of lending to investors and tougher debt serviceability tests. This is in part about reducing the risks to financial stability when it’s too early to consider raising rates.
More fundamentally, policies to help address poor housing affordability should focus on boosting new supply, particularly of standalone homes which have lagged. This includes relaxing land use restrictions, releasing land faster, speeding up approval processes and encouraging greater decentralisation. This is largely a state issue. Policies designed to make better use of the existing housing stock (eg, by relaxing constraints on empty nesters downsizing) could also help. 
Policies that are unlikely to be successful include increased first home owner grants (as in periods of high demand they just result in higher prices) and allowing first home buyers to access to their super (again this will just result in even higher prices unless supply is fixed before and will mean less in retirement).
Tax reform should ideally be part of the package and include replacing stamp duty with land tax (again a state issue), removing the capital gains tax discount that is a distortion in the tax system and lower income tax rates to discourage use of negative gearing as a tax avoidance strategy. Piecemeal cuts to stamp duty targeted at FHBs will just result in higher home prices. Abolishing negative gearing would just inject another distortion in the tax system and could adversely affect supply (although I can see a case to cap excessive benefits).
What is the outlook?
Generalised price falls are unlikely until the RBA starts to raise interest rates again and this is unlikely until later in 2018, which after a few hikes will likely trigger a 5-10% pullback in property prices as was seen in the 2009 &amp; 2011 cycles:
Sydney &amp; Melbourne having seen big gains are most at risk.
Prices are likely to fall further in Perth and Darwin this year, but they are close to bottoming and should rise next year.
The other capitals are likely to see continued moderate growth this year and a less severe down cycle around 2019.
But units are at much greater risk given surging supply and this could see unit prices in parts of Sydney &amp; Melbourne fall by 15-20 percent as investor interest fades as rents falls.
What are the risks to the economy?
Slowing momentum in building approvals points to a slowdown in the dwelling construction cycle ahead. This combined with a slowing wealth affect from rising home prices means that the contribution to growth from the housing will slow. However, as this is likely to coincide with a fading in the detraction from growth due to falling mining investment and higher commodity prices it’s unlikely to drive a slowing in the economy. However, a likely decline in rents (as the supply of units hits) will constraint inflation helping keep interest rates low for longer. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.01.58%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.01.58%20PM.png" alt="">
A property crash would have bigger impact given the exposure of banks, but as noted above such a development is unlikely.
Implications for investors
While there is a strong long term role for residential property in investors’ portfolios at present their remains a case for caution. It is expensive on all metrics and offers very low net income (rental) yields of 2 percent or less. This leaves investors highly dependent on capital growth.
But it is dangerous to generalise. Apartments in parts of Sydney and Melbourne are probably least attractive. Best to focus on areas that have lagged behind.
Finally, investors need to allow for the fact that they likely already have a high exposure to Australian housing. As a share of household wealth it’s nearly 60%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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