IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Joel Robinson

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Abadeen has released the whole-floor penthouse crowning its recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences</a> development in Cremorne, bringing the near-300 sqm residence to market for the first time.

Occupying the entire top floor of the boutique Lower North Shore development, the penthouse includes 221 sqm of internal living and a 74 sqm wraparound terrace, with a prized north-facing aspect taking in views across Middle Harbour.

The residence has been completed and fully furnished following a collaboration between Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown and internationally recognised interior designer Jack Freeman, Founder and Managing Director of FREEMAN &amp; CO.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen">Abadeen</a> and Freeman approached the penthouse as a finished home, sourcing furniture, artwork, lighting and objects from Australia and overseas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378718]

Pieces from Parisian design house Pierre Augustin Rose sit alongside contemporary artworks and bespoke lighting, with Freeman drawing on recent visits to PAD Paris and Salone del Mobile Milano for the final collection.

Brown said the aim was to create a penthouse that felt more like a large-scale private home than a traditional apartment.

"The experience begins the moment the lift doors open. You're welcomed into an elegant dining room before the home opens into an extraordinary living space framed by sun-drenched harbour views.

"Every time someone walks through the front door they pause. It's not just the view, it's the incredible sense of space, the warmth created by the northern sunlight that fills the interiors, and the way every room connects so effortlessly.

"It has all the proportions of a luxury home, while delivering the effortless lifestyle and personalised experience of living in a world-class six-star hotel, combined with the simplicity and convenience of apartment living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378713]

A secure lift provides exclusive access to the penthouse level, opening to a dedicated arrival foyer and dining area before the residence expands into its main living and entertaining spaces.

Floor-to-ceiling glazing runs across the northern side of the home, connecting the interiors with the terrace and Middle Harbour outlook.

The penthouse also features a fireplace and substantial chef's kitchen, while the wraparound terrace has been designed to accommodate both everyday outdoor living and larger-scale entertaining.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378720]

Freeman said the interiors had been deliberately kept restrained to complement the scale, natural light and outlook already established by the architecture.

"The penthouse is a serene study in quiet luxury," Freeman said.

"The interior pairs soft, sculptural forms with warm timber, pale stone and a restrained neutral palette. Curated artwork and metallic accents add depth, while abundant natural light creates a calm, effortlessly refined atmosphere. In my world, less is always more."

Freeman said the approach was centred around collecting individual pieces rather than simply decorating the apartment.

"Every material, every object and every piece of furniture has been curated with intention. I am a true believer in collecting versus decorating.

"The architecture already provided extraordinary natural light, remarkable volume and an uninterrupted connection to Middle Harbour. Our role was to complement those qualities with unique one-of-a-kind pieces of fine art and collectible design sourced from recent travels around the world."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378694]

Among the collection are solid bronze sculptures by Lorenzo Quinn, alongside a curated crystalware collection and pieces sourced from international design fairs.

Park Residences sits opposite Cammeray Golf Club, Cammeray Croquet Club and Grand Slam Tennis Cammeray, around 300 metres from Neutral Bay Village and its established collection of restaurants, cafés and retail.

Brown said the combination of a whole-floor floorplan, northern aspect and proximity to Neutral Bay was becoming increasingly difficult to find on the Lower North Shore.

"Completed whole-floor penthouses with a sun-drenched north-facing aspect and sweeping Middle Harbour views are exceptionally rare," Brown said.

"Add a quiet position opposite golf, croquet and tennis facilities, a level walk to Neutral Bay Village and only minutes to the CBD, and you have a lifestyle that's incredibly difficult to replicate.

"This is a home that offers the privacy and generosity of a luxury residence together with the convenience of one of Sydney's best-connected harbourside locations."

The penthouse will be exclusively marketed by SRM Residential.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=114246]

Abadeen unveils penthouse at Park Residences in Cremorne

Dwelling Values

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Hobart home values are tipped to rise 9.2 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent in 2018 according to the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast, 2017Q1.
The report said Hobart’s property market has gained traction this year as wage growth accelerated and the unemployment rate trended lower.
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"Aided by a lower Australian dollar, tourism has buttressed the local economy," the report said.
"Home values are expected to rise 9.2 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent in 2018. However, apartments will likely fall 0.9 percent in 2017. 
"Population growth in Tasmania has picked up, driven in part by stronger interstate in lows.
"This is helping to boost demand for services and tourism, supporting employment growth and pushing up house prices as demand grows.
"State final demand was relatively upbeat at 2.3 percent in 2016. However, the higher participation rate also pushed up the unemployment rate to a peak of 7.2 percent in August before it trended down in the final months of the year.
"Plans to relocate a major university campus should boost construction activity in 2017."
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Hobart’s property market gains traction: CoreLogic-Moody's

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GUEST OBSERVER
Those who find Sydney a tad rich don’t have to go too far to find major markets with greater affordability and good growth prospects.
Newcastle has a rising economy, a strong property market and appears to be settling into a sustained period of growth.
The city, about 160km north of Sydney, presents an appealing formula for property investors: relatively affordable prices, an overall solid growth record and major impetus from economic activity in and around the city.
It has delivered steady price rises over the past three years and in the past 12 months several Newcastle suburbs have recorded double-digit median price growth. There’s more to come, I think.
Key projects keeping the Newcastle economy strong include the CBD revitalisation, residential construction, upgrades to transport infrastructure and expansion of the Newcastle port.
Newcastle is already the world’s biggest coal export port and major upgrades to export facilities occur regularly. A $1 billion upgrade to the Newcastle Airport and RAAF Base is also under way.
The airport – where the runway is shared with the RAAF Base Williamtown – is already a major employer, with around 3,000 military and civilian personnel working at the base.
Newcastle is Australia’s seventh largest city and one of its oldest. It has a busy harbour, many beaches and plenty of elegant historic buildings. Despite its reputation as an industrial city, Newcastle is ranked the sixth most visited place in Australia, attracting 9.6 million visitors per year.
It thrives as part of the Hunter Region, which is the largest economic base in NSW outside of Sydney. The Hunter region is also well known for its primary industries, notably equine breeding and winemaking. It’s also a key area for mining and power generation.
But in recent years, much of Newcastle’s employment growth has been experienced within the services sector, especially in health and the tertiary education sector.
Generally, Hotspotting regards Newcastle as one of Australia’s most under-rated markets. It has strong prospects as an affordable alternative to Sydney, offering an attractive beach lifestyle, proximity to the Hunter Valley and to Port Stephens, plus solid job prospects in a growing economy.
The impetus of the State Government’s Urban Renewal Strategy for Newcastle has become clearly evident; building activity has been rising for the past 3-4 years – especially with unit construction – as the city strives towards higher-density living to cater for population growth.
Over 100,000 new dwellings will be needed in the Lower Hunter region by 2031, according to the NSW State Government.
The affordability of Newcastle relative to Sydney is shown in the median house prices in the Mayfield suburbs ($445,000 to $484,000), Shortland ($380,000), Wallsend ($415,000) and Waratah ($500,000), as well as the median unit prices in New Lambton and Waratah (both $380,000), and Adamstown ($405,000).
There are good prospects for real estate in Newcastle, based on extensive spending on infrastructure and property developments.
Newcastle has recently been the beneficiary of investment activity, largely stimulated by the $6.55 billion State Government investment mandate covering projects such as the new light rail system on Hunter Street, the transport interchange at Wickham and construction of the Newcastle City University Campus.
A June 2016 map of Newcastle building activity showed 28 residential projects with a combined value of $1.6 billion in the construction pipeline, with more proposals in planning. Around 3,000 apartments will be added to the city’s housing stock as a result, including 1,200 in the west end.
Work on revitalising the CBD began in December 2014, with the $73 million transport interchange at Wickham expected to open late in 2017. The interchange will integrate trains, buses, taxis, light rail, cyclists and car drop-off and pick-ups, alongside a light rail service from Wickham to the beach.
The Hunter Street Mall is also receiving a serious makeover, transforming the CBD into 50 percent residential and 50 percent commercial/retail. Included in the plans are an “eat street”, an entertainment precinct and around 500 apartments.
The State Government plans to move sections of Newcastle University into the CBD to help revitalise the inner-city.
Key projections for the university over the coming decade include increasing its student numbers to 40,000, making it one of the top three regional universities in Australia.
Construction has started on the $95 million NewSpace campus, with the NSW Government contributing $25 million towards the cost. By 2020, the university expects to have moved its business, law and creative arts faculties entirely to the CBD.
All this activity is helping to keep the Newcastle economy vibrant, providing a strong underpinning to a growth property market.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can  <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3Cspan%20style=/'display:%20none;/'%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3EThis%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3C/');%20document.write('span%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3E">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Housing affordability and price growth prospects in Newcastle

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Sydney apartment and home values are set for a minor correction, according to the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast, 2017Q1.
The report predicts detached home values are expected to decline 1.4 percent in 2018, with apartment prices will likely fall 1.2 percent.
According to the report, Sydney's strong local economy has been the key driver of real estate demand. 
"The labor market is approaching full employment, with a jobless rate of 4.7 at the end of 2016," it said.
"Furthermore, rents have stabilised after a drop in the first half of 2016.
"Sydney’s rental prices grew 1 percent over the month in January. Overall, detached-home and apartment prices in the city are expected to increase 7.2 percent and 7.5 percent in 2017 respectively.
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"But prices are set for a minor correction.
"Detached-home values are expected to decline 1.4 percent in 2018, while apartment prices will likely fall 1.2 percent. Although we do not expect a steep decline in prices, Sydney’s property market will likely stagnate through to 2020 as interest rates begin to normalise.
"The degree of correction will likely be uniform across apartments and detached houses. Although the stream of oncoming apartment supply has accelerated—more than 150,000 apartments have been approved compared with 70,000 detached houses being approved—unit prices have grown more slowly than detached-home values.
"From 2013 to the end of 2016, apartment values have risen 46 percent, but those for detached homes have jumped 67 percent."
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Sydney prices set for a minor correction: Moody's

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Detached housing values across the capital cities is forecast to increase 5.6 percent in 2017 according to the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast, 2017Q1.
According to the forecast, detached housing values are tipped to increase around 7.2 percent in 2017 following a 10.9 percent gain in 2016.
The report said Apartment values are forecast to grow 7.5 percent, after a 10 percent increase in 2016.
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"Slower growth in apartment values in Melbourne relative to detached houses suggests buyers are already pricing in expected supply," the report said.
"Detached housing values in Melbourne are forecast to grow 7 percent in 2017 after an 11.3 percent increase in 2016, and apartment values are forecast to grow 3.4 percent, after a 4.6 percent increase in 2016. 
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"Home values in Melbourne remain buoyant; prices rose 12.8 percent from January 2016 to January 2017.
"However, unit prices rose 2.8 percent during the same period.
This situation suggests that the coming supply of apartments has already dampened value growth.
"Apartment values will rise 3.4 percent in 2017, and a period of stagnation will follow through to 2020. Detached-home values are expected to rise 7 percent in 2017, followed by a steady decline through to 2020.
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"After a strong showing in 2016, Brisbane’s property market will cool in 2017 and 2018. The mining slowdown continues to weigh on job growth, and unemployment in the city’s local economy is expected to remain elevated at around 6 percent in 2017. 
"Apartment values are set to slow more sharply than detached-home values. 
"The slight divergence stems from the prominent increase in incoming housing supply. Historically, for each apartment approved, 1.96 houses were approved. However, since 2012, the trend has reversed sharply, and there were 1.3 units approved for each house. 
"Consequently, detached-home values will likely rise 3.3 percent in 2017 and a further 1.2 percent in 2018. 
"The oncoming supply from 2016 will cause apartment prices to remain at in 2017. The Brisbane property market will likely recover from 2018 onwards, supported by population growth."
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"For Sydney, the strengthening local economy has been the key driver of real estate demand.
"The labor market is approaching full employment, with a jobless rate of 4.7 at the end of 2016. Furthermore, rents have stabilised after a drop in the rst half of 2016; Sydney’s rental prices grew 1 percent over the month in January. Overall, detached-home and apartment prices in the city are expected to increase 7.2 percent and 7.5 percent in 2017 respectively."
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Capital city detached housing values tipped to increase 5.6 percent: Moody's

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GUEST OBSERVER
When renovating for profit, never rely on a selling agent’s estimate of renovated value.
Buyers should do their own research to establish the ceiling price of fully-renovated properties in the suburbs they are looking to buy.
You can’t rely on selling agents to give you an accurate estimate of the renovated value of a property.
Not only is it in their nature to be very bullish with sale prices as no one wants to list their property for sale with a pessimist; it’s also in their clients’ financial interest for them to be bullish.
They want to paint the property in the best possible light to encourage you to make an offer on it. 
The other problem is that it’s also an unqualified estimate as they may interpret what you intend to do with the property as more high end than you are actually planning.
Many property experts are predicting that unrenovated houses will be the most sought-after property purchases in 2017 as buyers shy away from an oversupply of new apartment buildings.
Those properties in need of renovation will be even more popular this year especially if they are livable, allowing DIY renovators to move in and reside onsite whilst undertaking renovation works over time.
When you’re renovating for profit, adding value is the name of the game.
Unfortunately you can’t add unlimited value to a property because there is a limit as to what the market will pay no matter how good it looks.
Once a home has reached its ceiling price for the accommodation it offers, buyers will not pay more.
When you’re undertaking comparable market analysis you need to establish the ceiling price of fully renovated properties that are similar to the ones you’re targeting.
Be mindful of the top values and resist the temptation to overspend.
Tips when searching for an unrenovated property:
<ol>
<li>Get to know the price difference between renovated and unrenovated properties in your chosen area so you know what you can spend and still not overcapitalise.</li>
<li>Find out which streets to avoid and the unique pockets that attract higher prices.</li>
<li>Understand the value of desirable features: parking, views, proximity to shops, schools, parks and public transport.</li>
<li>Get lots of ideas for improvements for your property by looking at the features of other homes that are for sale.</li>
</ol>
 
Patrick Bright is the Director of buyer’s agency EPS Property Search and can be contacted <a href="https://www.epspropertysearch.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Never rely on a selling agent's estimate of renovated value: Patrick Bright

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GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.4 percent in March and was up 12.9 percent over the year.
Prices rose in all eight capital cities with Canberra and Darwin up the most (up 3.1 percent). Regional house prices by 0.8 percent in February (latest available).
Manufacturing: The Performance of Manufacturing index eased from 15-year highs, down by 1.8 points to 57.5 in March. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. This was the sixth consecutive month of expansion.
Home price data is important for retailers, especially those focussed on consumer durables. The manufacturing data provides guidance for companies in the Industrials sector.
What does it all mean?
The economic data has certainly started off the week on a healthy footing. Stronger home prices in March while manufacturing activity barely eased from 15 year highs.
It may be no surprise to see that home prices continue to lift across most capital cities. But what was clearly surprising was the magnitude of the lift in prices. Probably even more surprising was that home prices rose in all eight capital cities. Across the nation home prices rose by a substantial 1.4 per cent in March, matching a similar result in February and December 2016.
In fact over the four months to March home prices have accelerated by 4.9 percent – the strongest four-month period in 18 months.
Across the capital cities, it was encouraging that Darwin and Hobart featured heavily when it came to the strength in home prices as opposed to Sydney and Melbourne.
Interestingly the key resource states saw a rebound in home prices, although annual growth remained weak. The sustained lift in commodity prices may help to alleviate some of the weakness in home prices in coming months.
Overall policymakers will keep a close eye on the housing sector in the early part of 2017, and will prefer to see more balanced house price growth across the nation. In particular, a lift in regional house prices would be a positive outcome. Annual growth in home prices across regional centres was a healthier 4 per cent over the past 12 months.
Click to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%2011.45.04%20AM.png" alt="">
What do the figures show?
Home prices
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.4 per cent in March and was up 12.9 per cent over the year.
In regional Australia, house prices rose by 0.8 per cent in February and were just 4 per cent higher than a year ago. (Regional prices cover just houses and data is up to the end of February). 
In capital cities, house prices rose by 1.5 per cent in March while apartment prices rose by 0.9 per cent. House prices were up 13.4 per cent on a year ago and apartments were up by 9.8 per cent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $613,000 and the average unit price was $512,200.
Dwelling prices rose in all eight capital cities in March: Hobart (up 3.1 per cent), Darwin (up 3.1 per cent), Melbourne (up 1.9 per cent), Canberra (up 1.4 per cent), Sydney (up 1.4 per cent), Perth (up 1 per cent), Adelaide (up 0.4 per cent) and Brisbane (up 0.2 per cent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 18.9 per cent); followed by Melbourne (up 15.9 per cent), Canberra (up 12.8 per cent); Hobart (up 10.2 per cent); Adelaide (up 3.4 per cent); and Brisbane (up 3.7 per cent). Prices fell in Perth (down by 4.7 per cent) and Darwin (down 4.4 per cent)
Total returns on capital city dwellings rose by 16.7 per cent in the year to March with houses up 17.1 per cent on a year earlier and units up 14.3 per cent.
Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index fell from 15-year highs, down by 1.8 points to 57.5 in March. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. This was the sixth consecutive month of expansion.
AIG notes “All seven activity sub-indexes in the Australian PMI® expanded in March (seasonally adjusted). Expansions in new orders (62.6 points) and sales (57.7 points) strengthened. Production expanded while slowing from more robust growth last month (57.6 points) as did employment (54.1 points). Deliveries (52.9 points) and exports (51.1 points) eased to more modest growth, while inventories turned up in March (55.5 points).”
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“Comments from manufacturers in March indicate that demand continues to recover. Positive factors for demand include: higher prices for coal and other commodities; large infrastructure projects; the NBN rollout; stronger defence spending and stronger activity in the agricultural sector. Energy prices (particularly electricity) continue to play havoc with manufacturers. Concerns about energy pricing and security of supply are eroding profitability and confidence. Other input prices are increasing (including steel prices), which is putting manufacturers’ margins under further pressure. Export growth appear to be easing off for some manufacturers, compared to the strong surge of exports seen in 2016.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
  The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
  The Australian Industry Group compiles the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
  Activity in the manufacturing sector is encouraging, especially the lift in new orders that has been identified in recent months. All the published data and anecdotes indicate that business conditions have markedly improved since the flat spot recorded for the economy in mid-2016.
  Investors are once again driving key housing markets such as Sydney and Melbourne. But there are more risks, with investors relying on expected capital appreciation for returns on their investment rather than rising rents. More apartments are being built, supply will catch up to demand and growth of home prices will ease over the next few years. Investors need to be aware of the risks including recent actions by regulators to slow housing demand.
  The broad-based health of Australian housing markets reduces the potential for further rate cuts. While fixed- term lending rates have lifted, it is still too early to canvas possible rate hikes from the Reserve Bank. 
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Home prices accelerate: Savanth Sebastian

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March combined capital city dwelling values increased 1.4 percent over the month, according to CoreLogic, with the combined capital city annual growth rate at 12.9 percent -  the highest annual rate of growth since the twelve months ending May 2010. 
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic head of research said while Sydney and Melbourne recorded the strongest growth conditions, the annual rate of capital gains has also moved into double-digit growth in both Hobart (+10.2 percent) and Canberra (+12.8 percent).
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"On an annual basis, dwelling values in Perth fell by -4.7 percent and by -4.4 percent in Darwin where economic conditions and migration trends remain weak across both cities," he said.
"Adelaide and Brisbane also saw dwelling values continue to trend higher at a sustainable pace with increases of 3.4 percent and 3.7 percent respectively in these cities over the past twelve months.
"The March results highlight the continued resurgence in the pace of capital gains. 
“This became evident through the second half of 2016, fueled largely by lower mortgage rates and a rebound in investment activity. Since June last year, the CoreLogic capital city hedonic index has increased by 9.3 percent.”
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He said the diversity of performance between houses and units is also a current key feature of the housing market.
"Across the combined capitals index, house values were 13.4 percent higher over the past twelve months compared with a 9.8 percent rise in unit values," he said.
“The disparity in growth rates is more significant in those cities where high new unit supply is more apparent. In Melbourne, house values were 17.2 percent higher over the past twelve months compared with a 5.2 percent increase across the unit sector. Similarly, in Brisbane, house values were 4.0% higher over the past twelve months compared with a 0.2% rise in unit values over the same period.”
“The weaker growth conditions within the unit markets’ sector reflect heightened levels of new supply across specific inner city precincts and also suggests that consumer confidence has been negatively affected by the warnings of a potential unit oversupply.”
“Given the recent policy announcements from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) are aimed at dampening investment related credit demand, we can expect lending conditions for investment purposes will tighten, particularly for investors with small deposits or those applying for an interest only loan. Additionally, higher mortgage rates handed down by Australia’s major banks may contribute towards cooling some of the exuberance being seen in the largest capital city housing markets.”
“Furthermore, organic constraints in the market are becoming more pronounced. As examples, record-low rental yields, which imply dwelling values are out of balance with rents, and heighted affordability constraints are preventing some prospective buyers from participating in the market.
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“Record-high levels of apartment supply are also likely to act as a brake on capital gains in those precincts where supply levels are high.
“Stronger buyer demand can be attributed to the rising number of investors participating in the market compared with a year ago as well as the lower cash rate stimulus and population growth. However, overall transaction numbers remain approximately 15.5 percent lower than their recent 2013/14 peaks.”
 “A shortage of advertised stock can contribute to upwards pressure on prices, as prospective buyers experience FOMO (fear of missing out) which reduces a buyers ability or willingness to negotiate on prices and causes some urgency in the decision making process.” 
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Annual growth rate higher than 10 percent in half of Australian capital cities: Corelogic

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AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver has forecast a slowdown in property price gains in Sydney and Melbourne this year ahead of a 5-10 percent price fall starting next year.
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The call comes in the wake of the Australian Prudential Regulation Auth­or­ity’s announcement on Friday of tougher lending standards, including a crackdown on interest-only home lending.
Dr Oliver said it was no surprise to see APRA increase its focus on the investor lending market, but told The Australian the moves had come too late.
“The latest moves by APRA, coming on the back of bank mortgage rate hikes over the last two weeks, the likelihood of action to boost affordability in the May budget (including a cut to the capital gains tax discount), and the surge in unit supply at a time of silly prices, are all likely to result in a slowdown in property price gains in Sydney and Melbourne this year ahead of a 5-10 per cent price fall starting next year some time,” he said.
Based on the latest APRA data, CBA is the bank with the highest annual home loan growth of 7.6 per cent, compared to system growth of 7 per cent.
Westpac was up 6.4 per cent, ANZ 5.7 per cent and NAB 5.2 per cent.
CBA’s interest-only loans are growing at 42 per cent and account for 40 per cent of its book.
Home loans account for 62 per cent of all bank loans.
The tighter interest only slowdown measures from APRA came as the RBA’s latest quarterly spreadsheets on household ­finances, released on Friday, showed that average debts were now 89 per cent greater than ­incomes, up from 67 per cent greater just four years ago. 
While household debts have risen by 32 per cent in the past five years, the value of household assets­ have risen even faster, by 51 per cent. Household net worth has gained 57 per cent over that period, from $5.6 trillion to $8.8 trillion, translating to an increase from $666,864 per household to $954,550 in just five years.
The booming housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne are a large part of this increase, with the value of the housing stock rising by 47 per cent, from $4.2 trillion to $6.1 trillion. The size of the housing stock has increased by 8.5 per cent over that period, so the ­increase per house has been about 33 per cent.
Oliver has previously predicted 5 to 10 percent price falls.
Last October he noted the surge in prices and debt has led many to conclude a crash is imminent.
"But we have heard that lots of times over the last 10-15 years.
"Several considerations suggest a crash is unlikely.
"First, we have not seen a generalised oversupply and at the current rate we won’t go into oversupply until around 2017-18.
"Second, despite talk of mortgage stress the reality is that debt interest payments relative to income are around 2004 levels.
"Third, Australia has still not seen anything like the deterioration in lending standards seen in other countries prior to the GFC.
"In fact in recent years there has been a decline in low-doc loans and a reduction in loans with high loan to valuation ratios."
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Oliver noted it is dangerous to generalise before saying nationwide price falls are unlikely until the RBA starts to raise interest rates again.
"This is unlikely before 2018, at which point we are likely to see a 5 percent or so pullback in property prices as was seen in the 2009 and 2011 down cycles.
"Sydney and Melbourne having seen the biggest gains are more at risk and so could fall 5-10 percent around 2018."
 
For more real estate traps and tips visit <a href="https://realestatetraps.com.au/">realestatetraps.com.au</a>
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Shane Oliver again tips 5 to 10 percent property price falls for Sydney and Melbourne

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House price growth in Sydney and Melbourne increased further in March according to CoreLogic, with Sydney house prices up 19 percent compared to the same month last year and Melbourne 16 percent.
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic head of research, said the early results come after a strong rebound in housing market conditions through the latter half of 2016 and into 2017.
"The strong capital gain results are further evidenced by a continuation in low stock levels, high auction clearance rates and strong investment demand," he said.
"March's figures reflected a strong rebound in housing market conditions that picked up in the latter half of last year and continued into this year."
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Sydney home prices up 19 percent in year to March: CoreLogic

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Sydney and Melbourne property markets have hotted up again and high house prices and household debt leave Australia vulnerable. But a property crash remains unlikely.
Expect average home prices to fall 5-10% once an interest rate tightening cycle gets underway in 2018-19. Sydney and Melbourne unit prices are most at risk.
More macro prudential measures to slow property demand are likely on the way. Alleviating poor affordability over the long term is best addressed by boosting supply. 
The cooling in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets evident in late 2015 in response to macro prudential tightening deployed by APRA has proved ephemeral. Price gains have reaccelerated and auction clearance rates &amp; lending to property investors have rebounded. Over the last five years Sydney dwelling prices have risen a ridiculous 73 percent and Melbourne prices are up 47%. As a result the Australian housing market continues to cause much angst around poor affordability and high household debt. This note looks at the main issues. 
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Is Australian housing overvalued?
On most measures Australian housing is overvalued:
On the basis of the ratio of house prices to rents adjusted for inflation relative to its long term average Australian houses are 39% overvalued and units 13% overvalued.
According to the 2017 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey the median multiple of house prices in cities over 1 million people to household income is 6.6 times in Australia versus 3.9 in the US and 4.5 in the UK. In Sydney it’s 12.2 times and Melbourne is 9.5 times.
The ratios of house prices to incomes and rents are at the high end of OECD countries. 
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Why is it so expensive and household debt so high?
There are two main drivers of the surge in Australian home prices over the last two decades. First, the shift from high to low interest rates has boosted borrowing and hence buying power. This has taken Australia’s household debt to income ratio from the low end of OECD countries 25 years ago to the top end. Second, there has been an inadequate supply response to demand. The following chart shows a cumulative shortfall relative to underlying demand had built up by 2014 and is still yet to be worked off despite record construction lately. 
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Consistent with this, while vacancy rates have increased they have only increased to around average long term levels. In Sydney vacancy rates are below average.
What about investors and foreign buyers?
A range of additional factors may be playing a role in accentuating demand beyond that implied by population growth. These include negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, foreign buying and SMSF buying. Negative gearing is just part of the normal operation of the Australian tax system.
However, the interaction with the capital gains tax discount by enhancing the after tax return available to property investment may be resulting in higher investment activity than would otherwise be the case. This may particularly be the case when past property price gains have been strong encouraging investors to think future gains will be too. While commitments to lend to property investors slowed in 2015 after APRA tightened macro prudential controls, this has since worn off. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.00.29%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.00.29%20PM.png" alt="">
Foreign buying is likely also impacting – with indications that it is around 10-15 percent of demand – but it is also concentrated in particular areas and SMSF buying appears to be relatively small. But like lower interest rates, all of these should have a less lasting impact if the supply response was stronger.
Is a crash likely?
The surge in prices and debt has led many to conclude a crash is imminent. But we have heard that lots of times over the last 10-15 years. In 2004, The Economist magazine described Australia as “America’s ugly sister” thanks in part to a “borrowing binge” and soaring property prices. Most recently the OECD has warned of the risks of a property crash. However, the situation is not so simple:
Firstly, we have not seen a generalised oversupply and at the current rate we won’t go into oversupply until 2018 and in any case approvals suggest supply will peak this year.
Secondly, mortgage stress is relatively low and debt interest payments relative to income are around 2003-04 levels.
Thirdly, lending standards have not deteriorated like they did in other countries prior to the GFC. In recent years there has been a reduction in loans with high loan to valuation ratios and interest only loans are down from their peak.
Finally, generalising is dangerous. While prices have surged in Sydney and Melbourne, they have fallen in Perth to 2007 levels and seen only moderate growth in other capitals.
To see a general property crash – say a 20 percent plus average price fall - we need to see one or more of the following: a recession - which looks unlikely; a surge in interest rates - but rate hikes are unlikely until 2018 and the RBA will take account of the greater sensitivity of households to higher rates; and property oversupply – this would require the current construction boom to continue for several years. However, the risks on the supply front are high in relation to apartments.
What can be done to fix it?
Recent RBA commentary strongly hints that more macro prudential measures to tighten lending standards are on the way. These could include a further lowering in the 10% growth cap on the stock of lending to investors and tougher debt serviceability tests. This is in part about reducing the risks to financial stability when it’s too early to consider raising rates.
More fundamentally, policies to help address poor housing affordability should focus on boosting new supply, particularly of standalone homes which have lagged. This includes relaxing land use restrictions, releasing land faster, speeding up approval processes and encouraging greater decentralisation. This is largely a state issue. Policies designed to make better use of the existing housing stock (eg, by relaxing constraints on empty nesters downsizing) could also help. 
Policies that are unlikely to be successful include increased first home owner grants (as in periods of high demand they just result in higher prices) and allowing first home buyers to access to their super (again this will just result in even higher prices unless supply is fixed before and will mean less in retirement).
Tax reform should ideally be part of the package and include replacing stamp duty with land tax (again a state issue), removing the capital gains tax discount that is a distortion in the tax system and lower income tax rates to discourage use of negative gearing as a tax avoidance strategy. Piecemeal cuts to stamp duty targeted at FHBs will just result in higher home prices. Abolishing negative gearing would just inject another distortion in the tax system and could adversely affect supply (although I can see a case to cap excessive benefits).
What is the outlook?
Generalised price falls are unlikely until the RBA starts to raise interest rates again and this is unlikely until later in 2018, which after a few hikes will likely trigger a 5-10% pullback in property prices as was seen in the 2009 &amp; 2011 cycles:
Sydney &amp; Melbourne having seen big gains are most at risk.
Prices are likely to fall further in Perth and Darwin this year, but they are close to bottoming and should rise next year.
The other capitals are likely to see continued moderate growth this year and a less severe down cycle around 2019.
But units are at much greater risk given surging supply and this could see unit prices in parts of Sydney &amp; Melbourne fall by 15-20 percent as investor interest fades as rents falls.
What are the risks to the economy?
Slowing momentum in building approvals points to a slowdown in the dwelling construction cycle ahead. This combined with a slowing wealth affect from rising home prices means that the contribution to growth from the housing will slow. However, as this is likely to coincide with a fading in the detraction from growth due to falling mining investment and higher commodity prices it’s unlikely to drive a slowing in the economy. However, a likely decline in rents (as the supply of units hits) will constraint inflation helping keep interest rates low for longer. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.01.58%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.01.58%20PM.png" alt="">
A property crash would have bigger impact given the exposure of banks, but as noted above such a development is unlikely.
Implications for investors
While there is a strong long term role for residential property in investors’ portfolios at present their remains a case for caution. It is expensive on all metrics and offers very low net income (rental) yields of 2 percent or less. This leaves investors highly dependent on capital growth.
But it is dangerous to generalise. Apartments in parts of Sydney and Melbourne are probably least attractive. Best to focus on areas that have lagged behind.
Finally, investors need to allow for the fact that they likely already have a high exposure to Australian housing. As a share of household wealth it’s nearly 60%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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