Growing national developer Time &amp; Place has announced its fifth new apartment development.

With two projects in Manly and two upcoming in Surry Hills and Potts Point, the developer, which expanded beyond Melbourne just a few years ago, is now heading to Mosman. It is planning 53 new apartments on Redan Street.

The 3,233 sqm site, spanning <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-48-redan-street-mosman-nsw-2088">40–48 Redan Street</a> with frontage to Redan Lane, is located just under 400 metres from Spit Junction Town Centre. It is reported the developer paid around $100 million for the five-site amalgamation.

Time &amp; Place, founded by Tim Price and backed by James Packer’s private investment firm NPACT, has submitted the project as a State Significant Development through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

Of the 53 apartments, 42 will be released to the market, with the remaining 11 allocated as affordable housing in line with NSW Government requirements.

fjc Studio has designed the building. In its Design Report, the architect said the diverse mix of dwelling types and sizes, including 11 two-bedroom affordable housing units, 40 three-bedroom apartments, and two four-bedroom residences, will support a broad demographic, including families, downsizers, and key workers.

The development will rise to nine levels, a height encouraged by the NSW Government due to the site’s proximity to Spit Junction, which has been identified as a low- to mid-rise centre. Developments within a certain proximity to these centres are permitted increased height.

fjc said the project “achieves an appropriate density outcome for its setting by balancing increased housing supply with strong amenity performance,” adding that it “makes a measurable contribution to NSW housing supply targets through the delivery of additional dwellings and dedicated affordable housing.”

The new development will replace five existing two-storey homes.

“By aligning with the objectives of the Housing SEPP and applying careful architectural and urban design principles, the development provides high-quality residential accommodation that integrates sensitively within its established Mosman context and delivers enduring benefits to residents and the wider community.”

Mosman has become increasingly popular with developers in recent years.

Developer Abadeen has been particularly active, with Mosman Residences currently on the market and under construction on Clifford Street. It also has an upcoming Burran Avenue project, comprising just three apartments on the Balmoral Slopes, and recently secured the Midas and Honeysuckle nursery site on Military Road.

Prosker Property has a project on Redan Lane, just a few doors down from Time &amp; Place’s proposed development.

Developers including Toohey Miller, DARE Property Group, and WINIM also have projects underway in the area. In 2024, a five-year target was set for the Mosman LGA to increase housing supply by 500 dwellings by 2029.

Time &amp; Place entered the Sydney market with Two Tides, its under construction Manly development. Given its sales success, it has secured another development in the area, more boutique, facing the beach on North Steyne.

They are hoping to launch their redevelopment of The Chimes in Potts Point this year, and next year will look to take to market Marlborough House, an adaptive re-use of the landmark David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills.

Joel Robinson

Time & Place to take on Mosman apartment market

Brunswick’s civic heart continues to consolidate around the Merri-bek Arts and Culture Precinct, where a growing cluster of cultural institutions, recreation facilities, and public infrastructure has created one of the inner north’s most defined community hubs.&nbsp;

Within this evolving precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/saxon-street-by-milieu-brunswick-31-saxon-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Saxon Street by Milieu</a> introduces new housing directly alongside the civic anchors that shape daily life in the suburb.

At 31 Saxon Street, the project sits immediately beside Brunswick Baths and within moments of Brunswick Library and Town Hall, longstanding institutions that support both community services and everyday amenity.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136434 project_image_fid=348840]

Next door, the newly delivered Balam Balam Place arts precinct has emerged as a central piece of Merri-bek Council’s cultural strategy, bringing together creative studios, exhibition spaces, maternal and child health services, and community programming in a purpose-built civic facility. Together, these destinations have reinforced the surrounding blocks as a focal point for public life in Brunswick.

This part of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/brunswick-vic-3056">Brunswick</a> forms a key pocket within the suburb’s designated Major Activity Centre, where long-term planning has prioritised walkability, civic investment, and increased housing supply close to transport and services. The surrounding street network reflects that strategy, with compact blocks, established retail corridors and active transport links supporting a lifestyle that is largely navigable on foot.

Within a few minutes’ walk, Sydney Road delivers one of Melbourne’s most recognisable streets, known for its long-running mix of independent retailers, international dining venues and everyday convenience. Tram routes along Sydney Road provide frequent connections south toward the CBD and north through Brunswick and Coburg, while Jewell Station on the Upfield line sits within roughly a ten-minute walk, offering direct train access into the city.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136434 project_image_fid=348839]

Active transport also plays a significant role locally. The nearby Upfield Bike Path forms a key north–south cycling corridor linking Brunswick through Parkville and into the central city, reinforcing the area’s reputation as one of Melbourne’s most accessible inner-urban neighbourhoods for cyclists and pedestrians alike.

The surrounding civic cluster extends beyond cultural infrastructure. Siteworks, a nearby creative hub supporting artists and community organisations, adds to the concentration of cultural activity in the immediate area. Educational institutions such as Brunswick North Primary School, Brunswick Secondary College and RMIT’s Brunswick campus are also within easy reach, contributing to the suburb’s diverse resident base spanning families, students and professionals.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136434 project_image_fid=348841]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-clements-burrows-architects">Jackson Clements Burrows Architects</a> in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> and landscape architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/oculus">OCULUS</a>, the nine-level building has been shaped to respond to the surrounding streetscape, with lower levels aligning to the street and upper storeys stepping back to soften its scale and improve solar access.&nbsp;

Curved balcony forms reference nearby heritage architecture, while the development’s public realm improvements include a widened footpath along Saxon Street to strengthen pedestrian connections between the precinct’s civic sites.

Sustainability also underpins the project’s approach. The building is designed to operate entirely on electric infrastructure supported by rooftop solar, with an average 7.5-star NatHERS energy rating and EV-charging readiness across the development. Shared resident amenities will include a landscaped rooftop terrace with barbecue and covered dining areas intended to encourage informal interaction between residents.

Saxon Street marks developer Milieu's fifth project in Brunswick and continues its focus on design-led infill housing across Melbourne’s inner suburbs.&nbsp;

Construction has commenced through reputable builder Manresa, who will complete the project in 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136434]

Saxon Street by Milieu connects residents to Brunswick’s cultural and civic core

Within <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/candela-ivanhoe-40-upper-heidelberg-road-ivanhoe-vic-3079">Candela Ivanhoe</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/salter-brothers">Salter Brothers</a>&nbsp;takes a different approach to larger residences, moving away from the constraints of a single level.

In Grand Residence 3.05, known as the Lustre, plays out across two levels, with a mezzanine configuration that is uncommon in apartment living.

Lustre is a four-bathroom residence where the layout creates a clear distinction between shared and private zones, with uninterrupted views toward the Dandenong Ranges extending the sense of openness from the main living areas.

Entry is to the primary living level, where the kitchen, dining, and living areas are arranged as one continuous space. Timber flooring runs throughout, with a fireplace set within the living zone. Full-height glazing brings in natural light, supported by double glazing that improves thermal performance.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=357506]

The kitchen is configured as both a working and social space. A large island bench provides seating, while a walk-in pantry extends storage beyond typical apartment expectations.

Gaggenau appliances, including a 900mm gas cooktop and 600mm oven, are integrated into a layout that connects directly to the adjacent dining and living areas, and outward to the terrace. This balcony includes a built-in BBQ, reinforcing the apartment’s capacity to accommodate larger gatherings without compromising internal space.

A dedicated laundry room, powder room, and a wine cellar area sit discreetly off the main living zone, ensuring that functional requirements are resolved without encroaching on primary living areas. The master suite is also located on this level, designed as a retreat with a walk-through wardrobe and an ensuite that includes double vanities, a bath, and a dedicated dressing table.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=357508]

The mezzanine level introduces a second layer of living, rather than simply additional bedrooms. Two large bedrooms with built-in robes are positioned alongside a central bathroom, while a secondary lounge and study area create a self-contained zone suited to children, guests, or extended family. A large storage room further supports long-term usability, addressing a common shortfall in apartment design.

This separation of levels is central to how the residence functions day-to-day. It allows the lower level to operate as the primary entertaining and living space, while the upper level provides privacy and flexibility. The result is closer in feel to a townhouse or standalone home, but with the benefits of apartment living, security, and low maintenance.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=364553]

Candela is close to 80 per cent complete, with Ironside delivering construction ahead of its expected October 2026 completion. The development comprises 58 residences, with a strong owner-occupier profile and a mix of one to four-bedroom apartments and loft-style townhouses.

Candela has exclusive access to private amenities, including a residential lounge and rooftop terrace. A charming café and a lifestyle wellness centre are located on the ground level, designed to foster community connection and extend the living experience beyond individual apartments without competing with the scale of homes like Lustre.

Candela, positioned in the heart of Ivanhoe Village, reinforces the practicality of the address. With a Walk Score of 90, residents are within immediate reach of cafés, retail, parklands, and Ivanhoe Station, while also benefiting from proximity to established schools and healthcare services.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=342]

Inside Lustre: Grand Residence 3.05 at Candela Ivanhoe

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a>’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a> is being shaped around a simple but increasingly rare premise in apartment development: that the built environment should actively support residents’ wellbeing.&nbsp;

Located on the former ABC Studios site on Gordon Street in Melbourne’s south-east, the new neighbourhood sits on an expansive 11,740 sqm site neighbouring the heritage-listed Rippon Lea Estate, whose gardens date back more than 140 years.

Rather than positioning wellness as an add-on amenity, the development integrates it into the physical planning of the site. Architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> is arranged across six low-rise buildings set within extensive landscaping designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/oculus">OCULUS</a>, with more than 40 per cent of the land dedicated to gardens and green space. Walking trails, pocket gardens, and mature trees are threaded between buildings, creating a network of green corridors that encourage residents to move through the precinct on foot and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136535 project_image_fid=288420]

Milieu has intentionally framed these gardens as an extension of the neighbouring Rippon Lea Estate. More than 16,000 new plants will be introduced across the site, with species carefully selected to protect and complement the area’s ecological significance. The approach focuses on strengthening existing environmental conditions while establishing new habitats that support native wildlife, reinforcing the role of the landscape as both an active ecosystem and a defining element of daily life.

A private resident gate will provide direct access to the historic grounds during opening hours, allowing residents to move seamlessly between the development’s landscaped gardens and the estate’s expansive lawns, lakes, and mature trees. The project’s gardens will also be maintained by the same gardeners responsible for Rippon Lea, reinforcing the visual and ecological continuity between the two landscapes.

Complementing the landscape is a dedicated wellness hub designed to support everyday health and recovery. Residents will have access to a gym alongside yoga and Pilates studios, while mineral pools and infrared saunas provide spaces for relaxation and restorative wellbeing. Shared lounges, workshop spaces, and pet care facilities expand the concept of wellness beyond fitness, creating opportunities for social connection and community interaction within the precinct.

Environmental performance is another key component of the project’s wellbeing focus. Elsternwick Gardens will be entirely fossil-fuel-free, with homes designed to operate on renewable electricity rather than gas. Passive design strategies, including cross-flow ventilation, high-performance insulation, and thermally broken double glazing, are intended to maintain comfortable indoor temperatures while reducing energy demand. Solar photovoltaic systems will power common building services, while rainwater harvesting will help irrigate the extensive landscaping across the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136535 project_image_fid=361030]

Milieu Founder and Managing Director Michael McCormack says the scale and setting of the project allowed the team to take a different approach to urban apartment living.

“This site represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to build something truly special,” McCormack says.

“Through that process, we arrived at a design that centres on a fully realised natural landscape – a series of private, interconnected gardens that encircle the homes and extend seamlessly from Rippon Lea Estate.”

Elsternwick Gardens will comprise three residential offerings, Gordon Place, Ripponlea Terrace, and The Garden Pavilion, each designed for owner-occupiers and shaped around high-quality interior design by Woods Bagot, K.P.D.O., and Flack Studio. The first stage, Gordon Place, includes one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments designed with a strong focus on indoor-outdoor living and sustainability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136535 project_image_fid=288412]

Milieu recently appointed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/brady-constructions">Brady Constructions</a> to deliver the project, marking a key milestone for the development. The appointment follows the demolition of the former studio buildings on the Gordon Street site, with construction progressing toward the delivery of the nature-led community.

Situated between the established villages of Elsternwick and Ripponlea, the development balances its garden setting with strong urban connectivity. Residents will be within walking distance of cafés, restaurants, and local retail, while nearby train and tram connections provide quick access to Melbourne’s CBD and the beaches of Elwood and St Kilda.

With construction underway and the first residents expected to move in by early 2027, Elsternwick Gardens represents a growing shift in apartment development toward environments that prioritise wellbeing as much as density or location. By placing landscape, sustainability, and shared spaces at the centre of the design, Milieu is positioning the project as a residential neighbourhood where wellness is not just promoted, but built into the structure of everyday life.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136535]

Elsternwick Gardens' wellness-first design strategy

Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a> has made a striking debut on the Gold Coast, officially unveiling its $250 million COMO development in Varsity Lakes, a lifestyle-driven residential project anchored by an extensive rooftop wellness and activity precinct.

Having recently launched to market, construction has already been fast-tracked by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/5point-projects">5Point Projects</a>, ensuring momentum continues on what is set to become a landmark residential address for the growing Varsity Lakes community.

Located at 22 Lake Street, Varsity Lakes, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO</a> will comprise 156 apartments across 16 levels, comprising one-, two- and three-bedroom residences designed for modern living. However, it is the project’s rooftop amenity offering that sets COMO apart.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363510]

Designed as a dedicated wellness and recreation hub, the rooftop will feature a 25-metre lap pool, fully equipped gymnasium, and multiple pickleball and paddleball courts - amenities rarely seen in boutique apartment projects.

Residents will also have access to a sauna and plunge baths, while landscaped gardens and relaxation zones will provide tranquil spaces overlooking sweeping panoramic views across the Gold Coast skyline.

The rooftop precinct has been designed to function as the social and wellness heart of the development, encouraging residents to embrace an active, balanced lifestyle within their own building.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363512]

Red &amp; Co director David Laverty said the amenity offering was central to the project’s design from the outset.

“Amenities were at the forefront of our decisions,” Laverty said.

“Buyers today are looking for more than just an apartment - they want a lifestyle that promotes health, connection and balance.

“The rooftop at COMO has been designed to be the epicentre of that lifestyle, with a suite of wellness and recreation facilities that are quite unique for a boutique development of this scale.”

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363514]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, the residences prioritise liveability, featuring spacious layouts, 2.7-metre ceilings and high-quality finishes throughout.

The development sits beside Bond University, placing residents within walking distance of education, retail and dining options within the vibrant Varsity Lakes precinct, including Robina Town Centre, Varsity Lakes Train Station and a range of leading schools.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

Laverty said the location was a key driver behind Red &amp; Co’s decision to bring the project to the Gold Coast.

“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/varsity-lakes-qld-4227">Varsity Lakes</a> was a clear choice for us to invest in as it’s a lifestyle hub that seamlessly blends lakeside living with urbanity,” he said.&nbsp;

“Como will capitalize on this great location, delivering a project that not only creates premium homes, but a lifestyle defined by community, wellbeing, and connectivity.”

Red &amp; Co has delivered more than 500 apartments and townhouses across 26 projects in Brisbane in recent years, with COMO marking the company’s first major Gold Coast development.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Red & Co unveils amenity-rich Como development in Varsity Lakes

Downturn

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
After many years of strong increases in dwelling values, the two largest housing markets, Sydney and Melbourne, have begun to see values fall over recent months.  While values are declining in both cities the speed of the declines vary greatly, both compared to one another and compared to other recent downturns in these housing markets.
<img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogim1.png" alt=""> 
Since values peaked back in July 2017, Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -3.9% over the following eight months.  If we look at the three previous downturns highlighted in the above chart, in the 2003-06 downturn values had fallen by -5.8% eight months in and went on to decline by -8.2% over 25 months before values started rising again.  In the 2008-09 downturn, values were -4.9% lower eight months in and went on to fall by -7.0% over 12 months.  The 2010-11 downturn saw values fall from their peak to their trough by -3.7% and after 8 months they had fallen by just -1.0%.
<img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg2.png" alt="">
 Dwelling values in Melbourne have not been falling as quickly or for as long as those in Sydney.  After the market peaked in November of last year, values have fallen by -0.7% over the four months to March 2018.  In 2003-04, values fell by a total of -3.0% over nine months and were -1.0% lower after four months of declines.  In 2008-09 values fell for 11 months, they had fallen by -3.9% over the first four months and ended up declining by -9.4%.  In the first four months of the 2010-12 period of value falls values were -2.2% lower before they ultimately fell by -8.4%.  Outside of these recent declines, values recorded a peak to trough fall of -8.3% between 1989 and 1992 with values falling by -2.5% over the first four months of this period.
Two other capital cities, Perth and Darwin, have been recording value falls for some time.  Although their declines are somewhat lengthier and different to recent falls in Sydney and Melbourne, it is valuable to analyse how these declines have evolved.
<img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg3.png" alt="">
Perth dwelling values increased in March 2018 however, over the period from June 2014 to February 2018 values fell by -11.0%.  There is no guarantee that these declines are over as yet although the pace of these declines has steadied recently.  It is also interesting to note that during the most recent period of value falls the declines began much more moderately on a month-to-month bases than they did in 2006-07, 2008-09 and 2010-11, with the downturn stretching on much longer than any of these previous downturns.  In 2006-07, values fell by -3.7% in five months, in 2008-09 values were -11.0% lower over 13 months and in 2010-11 values declined by -9.1% over 19 months.
<img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg4.png" alt="">
 Darwin has only seen two recent period of market downturn, between October 2010 and September 2011 and from May 2014 to February 2018 (values rose over March 2018).  Again, it should be noted although values have risen over the month it doesn’t necessarily mean the downturn is over.  Over the 11 month downturn in 2010 and 2011, Darwin dwelling values fell by -7.9%.  The more recent downturn saw value declines start slower than those in 2010-11 with the downturn stretching for much longer.  As at February 2017 Darwin dwelling values have fallen by -22.3% from its previous peak in May 2014.
While these charts are interesting to consider they don’t provide any particular guidance as to how deep or elongated the current downturns in Sydney and Melbourne may be.  The weak housing market conditions in Perth and Darwin were largely a symptom of weak economic and demographic conditions, while the current downturns in Sydney and Melbourne are occurring against reasonably strong economic and demographic conditions; the slowdown is primarily being influenced by tighter credit conditions.  
What is interesting is that comparing to Perth and Darwin shows that just because they have started falling slower than other housing market downturns doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t end up as a deeper and longer downturn.  Of course the reverse is true as well but it will be interesting to see how deep and how long these current downturns persist for in Sydney and Melbourne and whether they lead to downturns in other cities and regions too.
CAMERON KUSHER is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Are all property downturns the same?

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There’s a startling inconsistency in Australian news media when it comes to the treatment of real estate prices.
When actual data is published, showing what actually happened with house prices, media will savage the figures (if they are positive, as they were in March and April) and dismiss them as irrelevant or misleading. That’s journalism, right? Journalists are supposed to challenge things.
But if someone makes a forecast about prices which is negative, news media will accept that without question. And, worse, media will turn this speculation into a fact. It’s not a case of “prices are forecast to fall”; it’s presented as “prices will fall”.
This inconsistency in the approach of media speaks volumes about the mentality of journalists –
- If it’s a positive, attack it;
- If it’s a negative, make love to it.
Data from both CoreLogic and SQM Research showed prices resisted the impacts of virus shutdown in both March and April, with prices rising to some degree in most markets around the nation. We’re three months into the covid-19 schemozzle and there’s still no evidence of the price collapse predicted by the usual suspects.
But this was broadly challenged by news media as being misleading and untenable. Most headlines early in May, reporting the April figures, were extremely negative. One media outlet managed to turn all that solid price data into this headline: “Real Estate Markets Collapse.
It’s essentially about click-bait and the truth is optional – but, in other walks of life, if someone uses that level of deception and dishonesty to try to make money, they end up being charged with serious offences and in some cases go to jail.
Contrast all that with the treatment in the past week of forecasts for house prices by some of the big banks. These have been quite negative and news media has had a field day with those reports: no one has questioned or challenged them at all.
And they should be challenged, because the track records of bank economists in forecasting anything, but in particular real estate prices, are notoriously bad.
(As an aside, observe the record of Bill Evans, chief economist for Westpac, in predicting interest rates – he will make a forecast about likely movements in the next 12 months, with lots of publicity, but in perhaps two months’ time will issue a new, different, forecast. This begs the question: what was the value of your forecast two months ago, which you are now suggesting is wrong?)
If ever something deserved to be attacked by journalists, it’s the forecasts of bank economists about the housing market. Collectively, they have a very low level of credibility.
Let’s take National Australia Bank as a case study. The bank publishes regular forecasts about residential property prices, including the quarterly NAB Residential Property Survey reports. I’ve been reading NAB’s forecasts for many years and here’s what I know to be true – the forecasts are never correct. And I do mean never.
They always err on the side of pessimistic and invariably they are wrong.
Here’s a recent example. NAB published one of its reports in January 2019, containing forecasts for house prices for capital cities for the coming year.
Here what they predicted: capital cities on average would record a 3.8% fall in house prices in 2019. Sydney would drop 5.6%, Melbourne would decline 7.0%, Brisbane would deliver zero growth and other state capitals would deliver minimal growth.
News media, of course, gave this considerable fanfare and treated the forecasts as facts – i.e. Melbourne prices will fall 7% by the end of the year.
Here’s what actually happened, according to three major research entities which publish price statistics – and also according to NAB itself.
According to the latest NAB report, the capital city average for houses in 2019 was actually a rise of 2.9%, not a fall of 3.8%. The capital average for apartments was a rise of 3.4%, not the 4.3% decline that the NAB report forecast a year earlier.
The Melbourne result was a rise of 4.6% for houses and a rise of 6.5% for apartments, not the big declines that NAB had forecast. And in Sydney, there was a rise of 6.1% for houses and a rise of 3.4% for apartments, in contrast to the declines of 5.6% and 5.5% that the NAB report of January 2019 had forecast.
It’s quite a dismal failing, isn’t it, when you predict something will decline 5.6%, but it actually rises 6.1%.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster did not mention any of that in his recent media soundbites on his latest report. Here’s your credulity rating with me, Alan: 0
But the contrasts between the NAB forecasts and the eventual reality are even more stark when you look at the figures from more credible sources.
According to the figure from three major sources, the capital city average result for house prices in 2019 was a rise 5.5% (Domain), 2.1% (CoreLogic) and 2.9% (SQM Research).
The result for Sydney houses was a rise of 6.8% (Domain), 6.1% (CoreLogic) and 4.8% (SQM). Remember, NAB forecast a 5.6% decline for Sydney house prices.
The result for Melbourne houses was a rise of 8.7% (Domain), 4.6% (CoreLogic) and 5.7% (SQM) – not the 7.0% decline NAB had forecast.
There are similar contrasts with the other cities. Hobart, for example, rose 15.6% (Domain) and 11.7% (SQM), whereas the NAB report had forecast a 2019 rise of just 1.8%.
Without boring you with any more statistical detail, I can tell you that the NAB reports have been similarly, and consistently, wrong with their price forecasts year after year. They always lean towards negativity and real estate keeps on proving them wrong.
Yet, this nation’s gaggle of non-journalists has accepted their latest pessimistic outpouring without a single challenge. Its new forecasts, which are quite negative, have been celebrated in media across the country.
Shame on all of you for being so willing to heap further misery on Australian households without any credible justification.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

House price forecasts are usually wrong: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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House prices continue to defy forecasts of dramatic decreases from the virus shutdown – and the significance of that continues to be downplayed and misreported by mainstream media.
It would be refreshing is journalists could simply report the facts, in an even and balanced way, rather than go to extraordinary lengths to find negatives to feature in their headlines.
Let’s look at the facts. Figures published on 1 May by CoreLogic show that house prices nationally recorded another small increase in April.
The CoreLogic figures confirmed those published a few days earlier by SQM Research, showing that most capital cities had recorded rises in the past month.
The CoreLogic figures indicate that six of the eight capital cities, and six of the seven regional jurisdictions, recorded some level of increase in their house price indexes during April.
The biggest increases for the month were recorded in Darwin and Regional Tasmania, which both rose 1.1% in April.
Nationally, there was a 0.2% increase in house prices during the month. It’s a very small increase - but in the circumstances any rise is remarkable.
And it defies media forecasts a significant decline in April.
A month ago, when the figures for March (showing price rises in most markets across the nation), media generally dismissed those figures as being insignificant, as they (allegedly) pre-dated the full impact of the coronavirus shutdown.
Most articles in early April said the March figures were irrelevant and that those for April would show the full impact of the shutdown, with significant decreases predicted. There were some very negative and quite alarmist headlines a month ago.
However, the CoreLogic data shows that the housing market remains resilient in the face of the considerable forces created by the economic downturn. While sales activity has dropped markedly, and rents have fallen in some cities, housing values have not dropped.
The price data is strong also for the three months ending 30 April. All eight capital cities recorded increases in their house price indexes, headed by a 3.4% increase in Darwin and a 3.2% rise in Sydney.
Six of the seven regional markets also rose in the past quarter, with Northern Territory the only exception. The regional increases were headed by a 3% uplift in Tasmania and a 2.7% rise in Victoria.
Nationally, there was a 2% increase in the house price index in the past three months.
In annual terms, house prices are up 8.3% nationally, including a 9.8% increase in the combined capital cities index.
Keep in mind that the first of the share market meltdowns occurred on 20 February and we are now in May. We’re 10 weeks into the virus-induced economic schemozzle and, according to usual suspects like Shane Oliver of AMP Capital, we should be seeing evidence of a dramatic drop in property values.
But we’re not. We’re seeing a big fall in sales activity, but the number of properties for sale has also reduced significantly, so supply and demand remains in some sort of balance in many locations. So there’s no great pressure for prices to fall.
All this confirms anecdotal evidence from the coal face of the property industry. I’m having lots of conversations with valuers, buyers’ agents, investment advisers and marketers of various sorts who are seeing good sales happening amid strong competition and values staying firm.
The number of potential buyers in the market has dropped, but the active ones are genuine buyers, with the tyre-kickers having dropped out.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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House prices defy forecasts of dramatic virus downturn: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITS) have good gearing buffers to withstand the looming property value declines, according to a recent report from Moody's Investors Service.
The predicted downturn is due to weak demand and slowing economic activity caused by the coronavirus pandemic.  
The report found that property values would need to fall significantly for A-REITs to breach gearing and covenant thresholds.
“We expect retail property values to decline in the next 12-18 months because of weak demand and economic activity resulting from coronavirus related disruptions,” saidsenior analyst Saranga Ranasinghe.
“Office property values will fall to a lesser degree, and continued demand will support industrial property values.”
The report futher found that average property values would need to fall 34% to breach the top end of the rated REITs' target gearing (debt/asset) ranges and fall 55% to breach their covenant thresholds.
The REITs came into the downturn with balance-sheet buffers to withstand an increase in gearing. 
According to the report retail A-REITs will experience the largest declines in property values.
“In response to coronavirus disruptions, Vicinity Centres (VCX, A2 negative), Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group (SCP, Baa1 stable) and Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR, Baa1 stable) raised equity to strengthen their balance sheets,” added Ranasinghe.
CQR's gearing will approach covenant thresholds if property values fall more than 25%. Without debt reduction, Scentre Group's (SCG, A2 negative) gearing will breach its rating tolerance levels if property values fall more than 27%.
But SCG's gearing will remain well within its covenant thresholds.
Diversified A-REITs with retail property are also exposed to devaluations; office value declines are likely to be moderate.
Despite exposure to retail, the risk to diversified A-REITs is mitigated by exposure to industrial as well as office properties.
Stockland Group (SGP, A3 stable) has the largest exposure to retail. SGP has significant buffers within its covenants, but it will approach its rating threshold if its retail property values decline more than 30%.
We expect office property values will decline only moderately over the next 12-18 months and do not see material risks to gearing levels of other diversified A-REITs.
Industrial property values supported by e-commerce penetration and increasing focus on supply chains.
Unlike retail and office, we expect industrial property values will be flat to up slightly over the next 12-18 months.
The pandemic has accelerated e-commerce penetration in Australia and increased focus on supply chains.
The report concluded that Goodman Group (GMG, Baa1 stable), Goodman Australia Industrial Partnership (GAIP, Baa1 stable), and Charter Hall Prime Industrial Fund (CPIF, Baa1 stable) will benefit most.
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Most Australian REITs can withstand property value declines: Moody’s Investors Service

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Governor provided a cautiously optimistic overview of the Aussie economy and a reasonably upbeat assessment of the Reserve Bank’s response to the pandemic crisis. In his opening statement to the Select Committee on COVID-19 today, he said “The evidence so far is that our mid-March package is working as expected and it is helping build the necessary bridge to the recovery.” Dr Lowe also stressed, “With the national health outcomes better than earlier feared, it is possible that the economic downturn will not be severe as earlier thought. Much depends on how quickly confidence can be restored.”
On interest rates: Governor Lowe remained cautious about the road to recovery and signalled that record low interest rates and unconventional monetary policy support would remain in place “for a few years.” He stressed, “But even as the recovery gets under way, there will still be a shadow cast by the pandemic. As a country, we will need to turn our minds as to how to move out of this shadow. A reform agenda that makes Australia a great place for businesses to expand, invest, innovate and hire people would certainly help. For its part, the RBA will maintain its expansionary settings until progress is being made towards full employment and we are confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band.”
On fiscal policy and JobKeeper: In the lengthy cross examination by Senators that followed, Dr. Lowe emphasised that, “It’s very important we don’t withdraw fiscal stimulus too early” and “fiscal policy will have to play a more important role” in the future. In reference to the government’s JobKeeper wage subsidy program, Dr. Lowe said that the Reserve Bank used a much more granular approach to its labour market forecasts and assumptions, “We started the forecasting process [in March] at the number of hours worked.” No assumptions on the number of people on JobKeeper or JobSeeker were considered. And he noted “JobKeeper has kept the connection between workers and firms. The recovery would be more difficult without JobKeeper.” He also expected to see some form of JobKeeper retained for specific industries, such as tourism with international borders unlikely to be re-opened before year end.
On the labour market: Dr. Lowe reiterated the importance of developments in the labour market: “My main focus has very much been on hours worked. I’m expecting to see a decline in May but not of the magnitude of April. The labour force has a lot of definitional issues.” The Governor had previously forecast that hours worked in the economy could fall by 20 per cent. But he now believes that the decline may be closer to 15 per cent and wants to see a “reasonable increase in hours worked in July and August.” And when prodded on his views on the fabled “full employment” number, Dr. Lowe proffered “In February I would have said 4.5 per cent. We were making progress. We know from previous sharp economic downturns that there is scarring in the labour market. It is quite possible that the estimate of full employment rises back up to 5 per cent.”
On monetary support for the economy and negative interest rates: The Governor also said that the Reserve Bank remains “focused on keeping funding costs low across the country” and “keeping interest rates low for bank borrowers. Central banks work through lending not spending.” When prodded on unconventional monetary policy Dr Lowe said, “I think negative interest rates are extraordinary unlikely here. The reason that people are sceptical is the cost to the financial system as it impairs profitability and the ability to lend. Negative interest rates don’t work.” If required, “we could purchase more bonds”, but “as things stand at the moment we don’t see need to do more” as the banks “have a lot of liquidity”. And “we’ve bought $50 billion worth of government bonds that will eventually mature.”
On reforms and infrastructure spending: "The economy has become less dynamic", said, Dr. Lowe and “a reform agenda to encourage investment, hiring would help…regulation is a barrier to entrepreneurship”. On infrastructure spending the Governor said, “Surely there are plenty of good infrastructure projects with a risk adjusted return for Australian society of better than 1.5 per cent.”
On government debt: “The level of public debt, while rising in Australia, is still low. There is strong demand for debt and the government has the capability to issue more debt.”
On the global economy: “There are a lot of domestic ramifications from a weak global economy.”
On recent economic data and forecasts: “We’re tracking between the baseline and the upside forecast scenarios. The recent data has been better than expected but I still a lot of challenges ahead. Even in an upside scenario it’s still a pretty depressing scenario. On policy moves he notes in hindsight and with reference to JobKeeper revisions “We would have done the same thing.”
APRA Chair remarks to the Board of International Banking Federation
APRA Chair Wayne Byers provided an online speech, “Going the distance: APRA’s approach to the COVID-19 fight.”
On pandemic preparation: “In Australia, we have had prudential guidance on pandemic planning for financial institutions in place for many years, and it has certainly proved its worth in recent months.”
On solvency pressures: “Measures to backstop liquidity have worked well and bought us time, but solvency pressures are mounting as credit risks come to the fore.”
On financial services disruption: “Thankfully, firms’ plans have stood up well and (along with a great deal of reactive work behind the scenes) the level of disruption to financial services has thus far been minimal.”
On financial system health: “We were fortunate that Australia went into 2020 with a banking system in generally good health. We had been working for some years to position our largest banks in the top quartile of international peers from a capital adequacy perspective, and fortuitously they had achieved that positioning before the crisis struck. On an internationally comparable basis, our largest banks are operating with CET1 ratios in the order of 15-16 per cent, and capital within the broader banking system is at a historical high – and about twice the level heading into the 2008 crisis. Funding and liquidity positions were also stronger, and asset quality was good, reflecting a lot of supervisory attention in recent years.”
On the road ahead: “This crisis will almost certainly precipitate enduring change in the way society operates. The idea that we’ll employ some temporary measures and then everything will ‘go back to normal’ is therefore a dangerously naïve one on which to base our decisions. Flexibility and agility will be important – we have a long battle ahead.”
On the regulatory and supervisory landscape: “First, financial and operational resilience – the core of prudential supervision – will be the primary area of focus in the foreseeable future… Second, the post-2008 reforms will be properly tested, and inevitably we will find areas they can be improved…. Third, transparency will become even more important.”
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank Governor’s more optimistic tone was somewhat reassuring today. He seemed satisfied that the Bank had done all it could to help cushion the economic blow from the pandemic, but appears prepared to do more (buy more bonds) if the recovery fails to gather momentum as the economy is re-opened.
Of course, the Governor remains focused on developments in Australia’s labour market. The Bank’s assessment of the economy is predicated on the number of hours worked by Australians. The Governor emphasised that “What I’m focused on is people getting their jobs and income. Mortgage repayments are entirely manageable if you’ve got a job and income.” But "The shape and timing of that recovery depends not only on when restrictions are lifted, but also on the confidence that Australians have about their own health and their finances,"
Improving jobs data from the Bureau of Statistics, SEEK and Indeed – albeit off very low levels – provides unemployed Aussies with some hope and lifts confidence.
But a lot of uncertainty will remain, thus impacting consumer behaviour, until a potential virus vaccine is found. In the meantime, government policymakers would be well advised to retain the large fiscal and welfare support necessary for Australian workers and businesses to survive and operate through these challenging times until the economy finds a firmer footing.
RYAN FELMSAN Senior Economist, CommSec
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RBA says downturn less severe than first appeared: CommSec's Ryan Feldman

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Australia’s three-decade run of near continuous economic growth is set to end, with treasury warning of a hit to growth of “at least” 0.5% in the first quarter of this year, potentially followed by a “prolonged downturn”.
If it came to pass, treasury’s preliminary assessment would most likely mean economic growth vanished and went backwards for several quarters, producing what is commonly known as a “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-really-lucky-country-talk-of-recession-as-australia-takes-world-record-20170601-gwiiwl" target="_blank">technical recession</a>” – two quarters or more in which income and spending shrink.
Providing the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/speech/opening-statement-march-2020-senate-estimates" target="_blank">assessment</a> to a Senate estimates committee on Thursday morning, treasury secretary Steven Kennedy said the COVID-19 coronavirus would take “at least half a percentage point” from economic growth during the current March quarter and more beyond that.
In recent quarters economic growth has been about half a percentage point.
Quarterly GDP growth
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318783/original/file-20200305-127918-160glbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318783/original/file-20200305-127918-160glbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Treasury’s preliminary estimate of a hit of at least half a per cent took into account only the direct impacts of the virus on tourism and education, and some exchange rate effects.
It did not take into account broader economic effects or the impact of the coronavirus on supply chains.
The half a percentage point hit to growth would come on top of a hit of 0.2% from the summer bushfires, most of which would be felt in the March quarter.
<hr>
 Read more: <a href="https://theconversation.com/support-package-gains-shape-as-gdp-turning-point-swamped-132969">Support package gains shape as GDP turning point swamped</a> 
<hr>
Dr Kennedy, a former nurse who retrained as an economist, stressed that the impact of the bushfires would extend well beyond the immediate hit to economic growth.
“Evidence from past episodes suggest bushfires can lead to long-lasting physical and mental health effects and destroy cultural heritage,” he said.
“Research by the University of Melbourne after the Black Saturday bushfires in 2009 found mental health problems continued for three to four years.”
The bushfires made clear the increased probability of such events in a world of climate change.
“The CSIRO predicts climate change will make bushfires more likely, as fire weather patterns worsen as a result of an increase in weather patterns with hot and dry winds and fuel becoming drier.”
Deeper, wider and longer lasting than SARS
As of Wednesday there had been 91,868 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide and 3,131 deaths, most in China. COVID-19 had spread to 77 countries.
When the virus first emerged in China in December, the treasury saw it through the lens of the 2002-04 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) pandemic.
It was now clear COVID-19 would be different.
The impact of SARS took on a V shape, a relatively contained reduction in activity, mostly in Asia, followed by a quick bounce back.
The economic impact of COVID-19 is likely to be deeper, wider and longer when compared with SARS.
It will create more risk of a prolonged downturn, and fiscal support will be needed to accelerate the recovery of the economy, especially once the health and health management effects of COVID-19 begin to fade.
The first phase of the economic support package to be delivered next week would target assistance to the businesses and sectors most affected in order to keep people in jobs.
After that, support for aggregate demand (overall spending) would become more important.
“A very substantial part of the impact is actually confidence among consumers and the business sector because of the uncertainty,” Dr Kennedy said.
“Frankly, effective health management will be very important. The economy is actually quite solid. One of the key things will be to to explain to the community how well placed the economy is to manage such a short-term shock.”
The shock would last for some time but the economy would “recover on the other side”.
Keeping workers employed would be very important.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133053/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/economic-growth-near-an-end-as-treasury-talks-of-prolonged-coronavirus-downturn-133053">original article</a>.
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Economic growth nearing an end as Treasury talks of prolonged coronavirus downturn: ANU's Peter Martin

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
As green shoots have clearly appeared in the property market, RiskWise Property Research has taken a retrospective analysis of lessons to be learned from the recent downturn.
1) Think long term and don’t seek quick wins. It’s easy to see Sydney and Melbourne carry a low level of risk and are the long-term winners when it comes to the property market. While we’ve had short-lived episodes of enthusiasm in areas such as Hobart and the mining towns in both Western Australia and Queensland, these areas are no longer in favour with owner-occupiers or investors (Hobart delivered a modest annual change in dwelling value of 2.6 per cent). Now we are seeing the Sydney and Melbourne markets starting to perform more strongly, which means that only the people who bought at the top of the market in 2017 and 2018 are seeing temporary reductions in dwelling values. People who are looking for ‘adventures’ in the property market are like gamblers and often find these escapades to be perilous down the track when it is too late to do anything about.
2) Taxation and regulatory changes carry very tangible risk to property investors. Investors should focus on purchasing dwellings that are suitable for families in areas which have a high owner-occupier ratio, particularly houses, as these are less subject to potential taxation changes.
3) High-rise units simply carry a higher level of risk. This is driven by areas which have oversupply of units, often flagged as Danger Zones. However, the newly emerging threat of construction defects and combustible cladding has added an addition layer of risk for investors. For the same amount of money investors can usually buy a house in the middle or outer rings which will present much less risk and is more likely to enjoy solid capital gains down the track due to the long-term appreciation of land values.
4) Capital growth should be the key driver for investor decisions, rather than cash flow. A RiskWise five-year analysis of the property market earlier this year demonstrated that high rental yields generally deliver low overall returns for investors. Our analysis proved that, over the medium to long term, low rental returns delivered significantly higher overall return (i.e. capital growth + rental return), while high rental returns delivered lower ones overall. What it means is people who invest in very affordable suburbs that carry a high level of rental return, with the expectation of strong overall growth, achieve exactly the opposite result. The analysis showed, under the assumption of a 20 per cent deposit, that low-rent houses would increase their net equity by 63.1 per cent. Conversely, high-return houses would increase their net equity by only 29.5 per cent. This means low-rent houses increased their equity by more than twice that of the high-rent ones.
5) Undersupply of houses in Sydney and Melbourne is a systematic issue. With high population growth in both these capital cities, undersupply of family-suitable dwellings, mainly houses and, to a lesser extent, townhouses will drive property values and is likely to create strong long-term growth in prices. What it means is supply has been unable to keep pace with strong demand. While there has been a large supply of units in high-rise buildings, these are generally unsuitable for owner-occupiers and are largely rental properties. This imbalance in dwelling construction has been a major contributing factor to housing affordability challenges, remembering that rental properties and owner-occupied ones are not fully substitute products. Overall, investors are more likely to benefit more from buying houses in the middle rings and the outlying areas of these cities, provided there are adequate transport solutions and access employment.
DORON PELEG is the CEO of RiskWise
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Five lessons from Australia's recent real estate downturn: RiskWise's Doron Peleg

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The Western Australia housing market took a turn for the worse over the last quarter with broad-based downgrades, according to the latest data from Moody's Analytics
They found, despite support from lower interest rates and the continued strength of non-rural commodity prices, dwelling prices remain in a slump after the mining boom.
The labour market in Western Australia has been comparatively weak for some time, with the growth in employment lower than the national average since 2015.
Plus, average weekly earnings contracted over the year to May, the second worst performance among states after the Northern Territory.
Given the subdued conditions, Moody's Analytics forecast is for the housing market is expected to continue declining in 2019, with the trough not likely until 2020, after which conditions will begin to pick up before a modest recovery in 2021.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/28/WA%20Moodys%201.JPG" alt="">
Katrina Ell, Economist at Moody’s Analytics said: "Greater Perth’s house values are expected to fall 7.8% in 2019, building on the 1.8% drop in 2018.
"Mandurah is expected to experience the greatest fall in house prices this year, before stalling in 2020, while Perth Inner and Perth-North West are expected to perform the worst in apartments, which will have double-digit falls. Conditions will improve for both in the following year, but prices are forecast to still be below 2017’s in the medium term.
"Median rental values in Western Australia fell more than 20% peak to trough from November 2013 to September 2016, a sign of continued excess supply. Since then, rental values have remained broadly stable.
"A slow recovery in rental value over the next two years will help the housing market recover.
"Perth-North West, encompassing Joondalup, Stirling and Wanneroo, is representative of trends across Greater Perth. While apartment prices will likely remain weak over 2019-2020, house values will fare better, with less of a decline this year followed by a modest recovery in the next."
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