Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/bottega-property-group">Bottega House</a> has secured council approval for its first Brisbane project - a $270 million luxury residential development on an absolute riverfront site in leafy St Lucia.&nbsp;

The 15-storey project, known as <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-lucia-by-bottega-house-180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">St Lucia by Bottega House</a> , will occupy a prime north-facing site at 178-180 Macquarie Street, directly fronting the Brisbane River in the established inner-west suburb known for its rowing clubs, golf courses and sprawling University of Queensland campus.&nbsp;

St Lucia by Bottega House will feature a suite of amenities including dedicated wellness spaces, a mineral pool and cold plunge. The project has been positioned to attract affluent owner-occupiers seeking high-quality, house-sized apartments.&nbsp;

Bottega House has been set up by co-directors Nick Malloch, Louis Mennes and Craig Marsh.

Malloch said the project drew inspiration from its Brisbane River setting and leafy inner-west surrounds, while responding to the demands of discerning locals looking to transition from freestanding homes into apartment living.&nbsp;

"With an expansive river frontage and lush green surrounds, we knew we had to create something special that reflects the natural beauty of the location while offering residents masterfully crafted homes," said Malloch.&nbsp;

"Our intent was to complement the project's quiet, private setting by introducing residences that offer a calm retreat and sanctuary from the everyday. The result is a harmonious blend of architecture, interiors and amenity that emphasises wellbeing, comfort and beauty without excess."&nbsp;

Malloch added that project consultants had been carefully selected in alignment with Bottega House's commitment to care, quality and attention to detail. The design team includes architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a>, interiors practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/urbis">Urbis</a>.&nbsp;

Three-bedroom apartments are expected to start around $5 millio. Selling agents Keenan &amp; Byrne said the pricing strategy for the project was anticipated to achieve upwards of $25,500 per square metre.&nbsp;

The project's development approval this week follows the success of Bottega House's inaugural Queensland project - a 22-storey collection of full-floor sky homes at Broadbeach on the Gold Coast which included the sale of a two-storey penthouse at a record price for a beachside residence.&nbsp;

St Lucia by Bottega House is expected to launch to market in November, with construction anticipated to be completed mid 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151826]

Joel Robinson

Bottega House to make Brisbane debut with St Lucia riverfront apartment development

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> is advancing its affordable apartment model into Brisbane with the acquisition of another site at Cordelia Street in South Brisbane for $27 million.

Sherpa, which has a $1.7 billion pipeline across Southeast Queensland, intends to bring a cohort of apartments exclusively for first homebuyers into its proposed 186-apartment project to be built at 2 Cordelia Street.

The Sherpa model has already been incredibly well received from their Gold Coast projects, where Sherpa Group set aside a number of apartments exclusively for first homebuyers.

The new $320 million project marks Sherpa Group's second development in Brisbane, following its $255 million Symphony project, also on Cordelia Street, which is currently under construction.

Symphony will deliver 146 apartments across 28 levels, offering a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments. With 114 already sold, construction by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/lps-group">LPS Group</a> is scheduled for completion in 2028.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=351654]

Sherpa Founder, Christie Leet, said the company was excited to be venturing into Brisbane for its second residential project.

“We’re big believers in the future of Brisbane as we lead into the 2032 Olympics and beyond,” Leet said.

“The success of Symphony has guided us into what will be our second project and we look forward to submitting our plans with council soon so we can deliver yet another quality project to the inner city residential market.

“Our Flourish model has been very well received both in Brisbane and the Gold Coast, and we’re excited to be able to offer some of these apartments again exclusively to first homebuyers to help get them into the property market.

“The model has been extraordinarily well received in our previous projects and it is something we are committed to moving forward.”

2 Cordelia Street will be designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hal-architects">HAL Architects</a> &amp; Finegrain and will include Sherpa’s signature residential amenities including pool, gym, recreation, wellness and work from home spaces.

The project will feature ground-floor commercial space, creating a vibrant amenity for residents and the surrounding community.

A development application will be lodged with Brisbane City Council in August on the code compliant site and will be launched to the market early 2027.

Sherpa acquires new site for second Brisbane apartment tower

One of North Sydney's best-known commercial buildings could become hundreds of new homes, with insurance giant Zurich Australia lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to transform 5 Blue Street into a mixed-use residential development above North Sydney Station.

Rather than demolishing the existing building and starting again, Zurich is proposing an adaptive reuse project that would convert the landmark office building into a 15-level residential development delivering 62 apartments, 86 affordable co-living dwellings, activated retail and significant upgrades to the Blue Street Plaza.

The proposal reflects a growing trend of commercial property owners repositioning ageing office assets into residential housing as Sydney grapples with housing supply shortages and changing workplace demand.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bba7d12-06dc-4375-aad7-238c94b21ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.42.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NJl5oLAEBDGuPmY3RnyliKODjMc8lvRh" />

Located directly above North Sydney Metro and train station, the 3,051 sqm site occupies one of the most strategically positioned parcels of land on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Designed by fjcstudio, the proposal seeks to retain and adapt much of the existing structure while creating a contemporary residential address that better connects with the public domain surrounding North Sydney Station.

The application proposes two basement levels, ground floor retail, affordable co-living accommodation across the podium levels, and apartments above, while preserving and enhancing the publicly accessible Blue Street Plaza.

Rather than pursuing maximum apartment numbers, Zurich has opted for a housing mix heavily weighted towards larger owner-occupier residences.

The proposal includes 62 build-to-sell apartments comprising 12 one-bedroom, 19 two-bedroom, 29 three-bedroom apartments and two premium penthouses. It also incorporates 86 affordable co-living dwellings, which would be managed in perpetuity by a Community Housing Provider.

That balance between traditional apartments and affordable housing reflects the NSW Government's push to increase housing diversity around major transport infrastructure.

The proposal has been lodged concurrently with a rezoning application, with Zurich arguing the site is ideally positioned to support additional housing given its immediate proximity to public transport, employment and services.

"The proposal aims to respond to the housing challenges facing Sydney through the delivery of diverse housing types in a highly accessible location," the design report by fjcstudio states. It also seeks to improve pedestrian amenity through upgrades to Blue Street Plaza while creating a high-performing residential building that responds to the surrounding context.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36082e15-c636-4481-bb68-5a5f6443fe39" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.41.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5P6VD.fvmqjQfIG3TWWMRXxQWiQBjeFB" />

Rather than replacing the commercial building, fjcstudio has developed a design that works with the existing structural framework above the rail corridor, an approach that significantly reduces demolition while allowing the site to be repositioned as a mixed-use residential precinct.

The existing structural constraints have informed much of the building's design, including its relationship with Blue Street and surrounding public spaces.

The building has been designed as a slender tower rising above a clearly defined podium, with vertically expressed façades intended to reduce the perceived bulk while reinforcing North Sydney's emerging skyline.

According to fjcstudio, the architectural language responds directly to the surrounding commercial towers while maintaining a finer grain expression more closely aligned with the neighbouring Lavender Bay streetscape.

The tower incorporates articulated façade elements, landscaped podium edges and recessed upper levels to soften its appearance and improve pedestrian amenity below.

A significant component of the proposal is the revitalisation of Blue Street Plaza.

The existing public space has long served as one of the primary pedestrian connections between North Sydney Station, Greenwood Plaza and Blue Street, yet its role is expected to become even more important following the opening of Sydney Metro.

Zurich's proposal seeks to strengthen that role by improving landscaping, introducing new retail frontages, enhancing pedestrian permeability and creating more active edges throughout the day and evening.

Ground floor retail would wrap the plaza, while separate residential and co-living entries have been designed to improve wayfinding without reducing street activation.

Landscape design has been integrated throughout the podium and public realm, softening what is currently one of the most heavily urbanised parts of North Sydney.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

fjcstudio has carefully oriented apartments towards Sydney Harbour and the CBD while using privacy blades and articulated façades to minimise overlooking between neighbouring buildings.

Large framed openings along the western elevation maximise harbour outlooks, while the eastern apartments have been angled towards the south-east to improve privacy from neighbouring development.

The project forms part of the continuing transformation of North Sydney from a predominantly commercial CBD into a genuine mixed-use city centre.

Since the completion of Victoria Cross Metro Station, developers have increasingly shifted their attention towards residential projects capable of leveraging the area's unparalleled transport connectivity.

&nbsp;

FiveX recently lodged plans for a 61-storey, 490-apartment tower that would become one of the tallest residential buildings in North Sydney if approved.

Aqualand continues to expand its Lower North Shore presence following the completion of AURA on Walker Street and its recent St Leonards and Roseville proposals.

Developers are also progressing projects throughout Walker Street, Miller Street and the Victoria Cross precinct as demand for well-located owner-occupier apartments continues to strengthen.

First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station

Busy developer Aqualand Prestige has formally taken the next step in its expansion across Sydney's Lower North Shore, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for its long-held Archer Street site in Chatswood.

The application covers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/51-55-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">51-55 Archer Street</a>, a 1,767 sqm amalgamated site on the eastern edge of the Chatswood CBD, where the developer is seeking approval for a 45-level mixed-use tower delivering 114 apartments, including a significant affordable housing component, alongside retail, commercial space and six basement levels of parking.

The SSDA marks the latest milestone for a project Aqualand has been quietly progressing over the past two years. The developer first secured the site for its Aqualand Prestige platform before undertaking an alternative design excellence process with PTW Architects, ultimately avoiding a formal design competition through the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The proposal has evolved considerably from Aqualand's original concept. The revised scheme has been designed around larger owner-occupier product, with an unusually high proportion of three and four-bedroom apartments, targeting the more affluent buyer profile, and downsizer, emerging across the North Shore.

<img alt="Archer St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0171204c-5811-41b5-9b09-2335d1b7c3d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%208.52.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6YTuxfq.puZo7k2wbfgemcO5K3QfXYGQ" />

The 114-apartment mix comprises six studios, 27 one-bedroom apartments, 18 two-bedroom apartments, 50 three-bedroom residences and 13 four-bedroom homes. A quarter of the building will be dedicated to affordable housing, well above the mandated 15 per cent&nbsp;

PTW has structured the building vertically, with affordable housing across levels one to six, premium apartments through levels seven to 31, duplex skyhomes on klevels 32 to 43, a penthouse on level 44, and a rooftop plant level above. Six basement levels will provide resident parking and servicing.

The tower is proposed to reach approximately 154 metres, placing it among a growing collection of residential high-rises transforming Chatswood's skyline.

Rather than competing purely on height, PTW says the design has been driven by creating a slimmer tower capable of delivering significantly larger apartments.

"The primary objective of this project was to create a distinctive building that stands out from the recently approved or built structures in the Chatswood area," the design report states, noting the structural efficiency allows greater investment into apartment quality and resident amenity.

Residents would have access to more than 450 sqm of communal open space including landscaped gardens, swimming pool, rooftop entertaining areas, fitness spaces, community gardens, children's play areas and barbecue facilities.

A major focus of the design has been the public domain.

The ground plane has been opened up through landscaped terraces inspired by Willoughby's sandstone ridges, with native planting, public seating, artwork, retail activation and a series of gathering spaces intended to soften what has traditionally been a hard commercial streetscape.

The landscape strategy references Blue Gum forests once common throughout the area, while incorporating Indigenous storytelling, public art and lighting installations to strengthen the connection to Country.

Chatswood has been one of Sydney's busiest apartment markets over the past 12 months, with a steady pipeline of both new project launches and fresh development applications.

Hyecorp recently launched Celine, a 122-apartment development just along Archer Street, while Changfa and Huirong Group are progressing The Anderson, an 84-apartment project on Anderson Street.

Develotek recently secured approval for a 101-apartment tower on Pacific Highway, while Tian An LFD received the green light for Hammond Greens, its apartment development on the edge of the Chatswood Bowling Club.

Commercial property developer FiveX is also making its move into the residential market. Last month it lodged plans for a 61-storey tower with 490 apartments, which, if approved, would become one of the tallest residential buildings in Chatswood.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-targets-chatswood-skyline-with-61-storey-tower-after-north-sydney-plans">First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans</a>

Aqualand is also expanding its development pipeline following the launch of its luxury residential brand, Aqualand Prestige. The developer has delivered a string of high-end apartment projects across Sydney's affluent suburbs over the past decade, most recently AURA by Aqualand on Walker Street in North Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292863]

It has since quietly assembled its next wave of projects.

Earlier this year Aqualand launched Boronia in Roseville, a boutique 111-apartment development on Larkin Street. The project is one of the first significant apartment developments to launch in the suburb ahead of what is expected to become one of Sydney's most active new housing precincts under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, which allow greater density around train stations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152095 project_image_fid=373685]

The developer has also lodged plans for a two-tower, 413-apartment development on Herbert Street in nearby St Leonards, further strengthening its presence across the Lower North Shore.

Beyond that, Aqualand remains behind the final stage of Barangaroo, where plans will deliver a five-hectare mixed-use precinct comprising new homes, retail, hospitality and community facilities, alongside a new Metro entrance and more than two hectares of public open space, completing the Barangaroo precinct.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/central-barangaroo-development-takes-big-step-with-concept-proposal-approval">Central Barangaroo development takes big step with concept proposal approval</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-aqualand-joins-st-leonards-apartment-party">First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party</a> 
&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

First look: Aqualand pushes ahead with Chatswood apartment tower as SSDA lodged for Archer Street

Mass timber is becoming an increasingly popular construction material in apartment developments, but Adelaide developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> is taking the approach a step further.

At its new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flowe-bowden-18-gibson-street-bowden-sa-5007">Flowe Bowden</a> development, the exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) structure isn't just about reducing the building's environmental footprint. It also forms the foundation of a broader wellness strategy, influencing everything from indoor air quality and natural materials to the way residents move through and experience the building.

The 115-apartment mixed-use development, designed by Melbourne-based architecture practice Fieldwork, will occupy a prominent island site opposite Bowden Village Reserve, combining one, two and three-bedroom apartments with retail and a dedicated wellness destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375528]

Wellness isn't confined to a gym or shared resident facility at Flowe. Instead, Fieldwork embedded the concept into the building itself.

The development has been split into two residential wings connected by a naturally ventilated central breezeway, replacing traditional enclosed corridors with open-air walkways that improve natural light, encourage cross ventilation and create more opportunities for neighbourly interaction.

"Rather than treating wellness as something that only happens on the ground floor, our response integrates it throughout the building, which led us to ask what it really means to design a healthy building," Fieldwork Director Quino Holland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375531]

The building's architecture also reflects Bowden's industrial heritage. The lower podium references the area's historic brick and sandstone buildings, while the upper levels transition to exposed CLT, allowing the timber structure to become a defining feature throughout the apartments and shared spaces.

The use of mass timber sits alongside a range of sustainability initiatives, including a fully electric, gas-free design, rooftop solar and a targeted 5 Star Green Star rating.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375524]

Inside the residences, the focus remains on natural, durable materials. Blackbutt engineered timber flooring, exposed CLT ceilings, porcelain surfaces and warm timber joinery create a calming interior palette, while low-VOC finishes and responsibly sourced materials have been selected to improve indoor air quality.

Kitchens have been designed as the centrepiece of each apartment, featuring porcelain island benchtops, timber-look cabinetry and brushed steel tapware, with layouts that maximise natural light and ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375530]

The more traditional interpretation of wellness comes in the form of Level Eleven, a two-storey wellness club spanning the ground floor, mezzanine and first floor.

The facility will include a gym, yoga and reformer Pilates studios, Finnish and infrared saunas, magnesium hot and cold plunge pools, and dedicated recovery spaces. Unlike many residential wellness facilities, Level Eleven will also operate commercially, allowing the broader Bowden community to access the venue while giving residents exclusive membership benefits.

The ground floor has also been designed around everyday living. A café overlooking Bowden Village Reserve will activate the street frontage, while a bike workshop with tool storage, co-working space and dog wash has been incorporated to support daily routines and encourage interaction between residents.

"Flowe brings together my two biggest passions, creating places and creating healthier lives," Otello founder Daniel Harris said.

"We wanted to create something Adelaide hasn't seen before, a genuinely healthy building, where the way you live is lifted without even trying."

Flowe is positioned directly opposite Bowden Village Reserve and within walking distance of Bowden Railway Station and the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, placing future residents just minutes from the Adelaide CBD while remaining connected to one of the city's most established urban renewal precincts.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152022]

Otello launches wellness-focused Flowe Bowden with Adelaide-first mass timber apartment design

Donald Trump

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/69117/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The federal deficit will be worse in 2017-18 than predicted in the May budget, despite some easing in the delays imposed by the Senate, Deloitte Access Economics’ budget monitor predicts.
It also says the short-term business implications of a Trump presidency are likely to be smaller and slower than the headlines have suggested but in the longer term there may well be net negatives for the global and Australian economies.
The Deloitte assessment comes as the government starts the final parliamentary fortnight of the year, reasonably confident that it will get its industrial relations bills, which were the triggers for the double dissolution, passed.
In a gloomy outlook for the government’s core challenge of budget repair, Deloitte says: “There are challenges seen on almost every front: under-performance on wages and jobs is forecast to continue, we see shortfalls creeping back in on company tax, super may also fall shy, and GST may do the same.”
On current policy settings, Deloitte forecasts a deficit of A$29.9 billion in 2017-18, which is A$3.8 billion worse than budgeted.
“That says something simple: no, the tide isn’t turning,” Deloitte says.
It estimates a $40.5 billion deficit in 2016-17, $3.4 billion worse than budgeted, and a total blow out of $24 billion in the deficit over the forward estimates. 
The government will release its budget update on December 19.
Deloitte applies a reality check to the benefits of the boost in coal prices, which has seen contract prices going to $US200 a tonne and spot prices to more than $US300.
Coal “is dragging Australia out of the income recession we’ve juggled since late 2011. But King Coal also comes with some king-sized caveats.
"First, as many coal companies have been making losses, a switch to earning profits has a slower-than-usual impact on tax payments. Second, many of the factors that sent coal stratospheric are temporary, and most other commodity prices are more in line with budget assumptions.”
So a spike in national income would then ease back, according to the forecast.
It says both wages and jobs are likely to undershoot official forecasts. The tax take from individuals is predicted to fall short of the budget forecasts by A$1.3 billion in 2016-17 and by A$2 billion in 2017-18. In a break with recent trends, a minor shortfall in indirect tax of A$500 million is also forecast in 2017-18.
While the government has made some progress with measures in the Senate “the overall story on spending remains one of the continuing cost of failing to get a backlog of measures through parliament, topped up by a soupcon of new measures”.
Commenting on the Deloitte report, Treasurer Scott Morrison said the government would be adopting a cautious approach to commodity price assumptions in the budget update “and agrees with Deloitte that commodity price impacts are being offset by wages and inflation outcomes”.
“Deloitte also correctly identifies the need for more important savings measures to be passed by the parliament, that are opposed by Labor. This reinforces the position adopted by rating agencies who continue to watch our parliament to see whether they will support the government’s approved pathway to restore the budget to balance,” Morrison said.
Deloitte says that while the election of Trump was bigger news than Brexit, its shorter-term implications are likely to be less than the speculation.
“The US political system has remarkably strong checks and balances, and those checks and balances have increasingly solidified into gridlock over a number of years”, so presidents are rather less powerful than popular opinion believed.
On the other hand, there are Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, and presidential power is at its strongest on foreign policy – suggesting policy change is now more likely in some areas.
“Examples relevant to Australia include trade and climate change policy, and perhaps foreign policy more generally.
"On balance, we would recommend concentrating on the longer-term implications. In brief, we’d say that overall policy changes may well be net negatives for the global and Australian economies – especially trade- related developments and the increased potential geopolitical uncertainties. However, a number of those negatives will be years in the making.”
In Peru for APEC, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull continued to extol the virtues of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), despite it being apparently dead under a Trump administration.
He said Trump had “never said that he’s against free trade. He has criticised a number of agreements on the basis that they’re not good enough deals.
"It may well be that over time the TPP is re-embraced by the United States, by the Congress or indeed by the president, perhaps in the same form it is today, perhaps in a different form.
"The important thing is to maintain the commitment to the arrangements, the free trade, the open markets that are delivering jobs in Australia,” Turnbull said.
Observers are taking the fact the government is preparing to bring on the bills to tighten union governance and to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission in the Senate this fortnight as a sign that it thinks it can get them through. Previously Turnbull has said they would be brought forward “when we believe there is a majority that will support it and on terms that we will accept”.
Asked about this at the weekend Turnbull said that with the Senate “it’s a long game and we work away, we respect every single senator”. On Sunday Employment Minister Michaelia Cash was engaged in negotiations over the legislation.
Michelle Grattan is professorial fellow, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michelle-grattan-20316" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Trump’s economic impact slower, smaller than predicted – but still bad: Deloitte

<html><body>
After adjusting to Brexit, the global real estate sector is now managing a bond rout triggered by the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency  according to Alistair Elliott, chairman, Knight Frank.
In a recent visit to Australia he said  global direct property investment had already dropped from the record levels of 2015 due to a hesitancy about the right time to buy rather than any change in sentiment towards real estate.
"Post the financial crisis, property has had a strong role and I see no sign of that ebbing... in a world where it is difficult to find returns, property is a relatively secure bet," he said.
"We do not expect this [the slowdown in direct real estate investment] to worsen. Indeed as an increasing quantity of investment capital gathers to seek out yield then there is a case to suggest investment volumes may well begin to increase as we get clarity around the new administration's future plans for the USA and with the UK developing an agenda with key trading partners in Europe."
"Melbourne and Sydney [offices] have real growth and that would give confidence to the buyers compared to other cities where rental growth is reaching its peak."
</body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Global real estate sector managing a Trump bond rout

<html><body><div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
The nation's biggest non-bank lender, Firstmac, and nine other lenders are raising fixed rate mortgages in a move known as the 'Trump effect,' according to lenders and market analysts.
These mortgages are being raised by up to 45 basis points.
Firstmac's rates for owner-occupiers and investors on one to three-year mortgages by 13 basis points.
Owner-occupied rates have increased to 4.09 percent and investor rates to 4.34 percent.
"International funding costs are rising, which is the fallout from the 'Trump effect'," Martin North, principal of Digital Finance Analytics, told The Australian Financial Review.
"Other lenders are likely to follow," he said.  
"I am expecting rises in mortgage rates over the summer."
"If the US do turn on the debt tap to fund infrastructure builds, this is likely to drive rates up.
"I know the banks have more deposit funding now, but they are still caught in the draft of international rate movements." 
Marnie Mortimer, managing director of loans.com.au said that global markets are set to change.
"There is no doubt global markets are pricing in a rise in rates in the medium-term and that has now been aggravated by expectations of higher inflation if Mr Trump implements his election promises," she to the Australian Financial Review.
It comes as for the first time in two years, the markets are betting that the RBA is more likely to lift rates than lower them next year.
Index swaps are pricing in an about 8 per cent chance that over the next 12 months the cash rate will rise from its current record low of 1.5 per cent, according to Credit Suisse data.
Loans.com.au had cut its three year fixed-rate home loan by 32 basis point to 3.67 percent in June.
This week the lender increased its three-year rate to 3.89 percent.  
P&amp;N Bank, the largest member-owned bank in Western Australia, has raised rates on its products by 10 basis points.
Catalyst Money increased its fixed rates by up to 30 basis points, Bank of Queensland's three-year owner-occupied and investment loans went up by up to 20 basis points and Beyond Bank by 10 basis point.
Westpac, which has about $380 billion in mortgages, is cutting the introductory discount rate on its popular "flexi first" owner-occupier and investment products by 10 basis points. 
Loans.com.au, the nation's largest online lender, has raised rates by up to 13 basis point on investor and owner-occupied fixed rates.
 
</div></body></html>

'Trump effect' begins to bite borrowers as fixed-rate mortgages increase

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68571/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
2016 will go down as a watershed year for all the wrong reasons: Britain’s EU exit faces strong opposition; Syria remains plunged in civil war; and in the wake of the US election politics in the two major Anglosphere democracies are now deeply polarised. 
In Britain and the US, the majority of voters have embraced candidates and movements that eschew globalisation, immigration and free markets. Instead, they preach nationalism, closed borders and protectionism.
But it is hyperbolic to suggest that the post-2008 financial crisis era is beginning to look very much like the 1930s in the wake of the Wall Street crash. This is not a clash between fascism, communism and democracy. But what the Brexit and US presidential votes do show is that modern democracies have proven incapable of dealing adequately with income inequality, unemployment and declining opportunity.
With Trump as president, US policy is likely to become more unpredictable, but the business of government and policy implementation must go on nevertheless. 
Despite Republican majorities in Congress, Trump will not be able to treat the legislature as a mere rubber stamp. In the US system, Congress holds the whip hand. Moreover, Trump is at war with so many senior Republicans, he is unlikely to enjoy a smooth ride. Where congressional Republicans and Trump do agree is that tax cuts are needed.
<h2>Unchartered waters</h2>
In this respect, we are really navigating unknown waters as to how Trump will behave in office as president. Trump has no public sector background. He will be the first US president to enter the office without any gubernatorial or congressional experience, or any previous role in an administration. 
Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush served as state governors; John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama were junior senators (Obama also served as a state senator from 1996); George H.W. Bush served in multiple roles, including the vice presidency. In the post-war period, only Eisenhower comes close to Trump as a political cleanskin. But Eisenhower had a substantial military career, a reputation as a war hero, and had been a key adviser to both the military and the Department of Defense before and after World War II.
Trump’s victory has been built on his image as a Washington outsider. But his isolationist, nationalist and protectionist policies are not new; the first US Secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton, was an unabashed protectionist, viewing American infant industries as central to the US’s commercial rivalry with industrial Britain. 
On defence and trade policy, Trump is close to many of the positions articulated by the America First movement in the 1930s and 1940s. Substantial figures, such as Charles Lindbergh and future president Gerald Ford, sought to keep America out of the second world war. But once Washington entered the war, it did not make the same mistake it made after Versailles in 1919; instead, the US became a global economic and military superpower, eschewing the isolationism of 1920–41.
As a self-declared neo-isolationist, one of the keys to Trump’s victory was his denunciation of the free-trade orthodoxy that has dominated Washington’s economic agenda since the Bretton Woods conference of 1944, which created the IMF, World Bank and, later, the GATT, the predecessor to the World Trade Organisation.
Let’s take a look at the state of play of the US’s current and mooted free trade negotiations. We’ll also briefly canvass how President Trump is likely to deal with Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve. 
<h2>The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)</h2>
The TPP was initiated under George W. Bush’s administration, but President Obama pushed the 12-member bloc, obtaining fast-track trade promotion authority from Congress in June 2015. This allowed him to press forward with the finalisation of the agreement, which was released in October 2015. However, Trump’s opposition to TPP, along with Hillary Clinton’s second thoughts about her support for it means the deal is unlikely to pushed through during Obama’s final weeks in office.
In November 2015, Trump declared TPP “insanity”. Trump’s anti-TPP campaign demonstrated how he and the Tea Partyists had so convincingly vanquished the traditionally pro free trade Republican Party. By July this year, Republicans began to erase all trace of TPP support from their websites. By September, staunch TPP supporters Marco Rubio and Pat Toomey performed a volte-face; having praised the TPP, now they sought to bury it. Both Obama and Hillary Clinton were depending on the pro-TPP Republicans to get the pact through Congress.
Verdict: Dead in the water. Many Australians will applaud Trump for killing the TPP, as it was <a href="https://theconversation.com/ratifying-the-tpp-may-be-tough-but-australia-needs-it-48663" target="_blank">far from popular</a>. 
<h2>The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)</h2>
NAFTA was a product of the Reagan-Bush years, building on its 1998 predecessor, the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA). George H.W. Bush’s administration did most of the heavy lifting, but Bill Clinton pushed NAFTA through Congress in 1993, expending considerable political capital as he faced off against the unions, the Democrats’ biggest supporters.
Trump has labelled NAFTA “the worst trade deal ever”. True, NAFTA may have destroyed 879,000 US jobs, according to one study. But it also provided a low cost labour base for both the US and Canada, as they strove to compete with Asian manufacturing and the EU’s newly opened eastern periphery.
Verdict: No happily ever NAFTA. Likely to stay, but regulatory changes will be made.
<h2>
Europeans came out in force against the TTIP. Francois Lenoir/Reuters
</h2>
<h2>The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)</h2>
TTIP may be dead already, mostly due to the fact that it’s as popular as Hillary Clinton. It is in Europe that TTIP has found its strongest opponents, with thousands protesting against it.
Clinton, Sanders and Trump’s position against TTIP coalesced early, as it was clear it was a vote loser within all three candidates’ voter bases. In a pitch to Sanders supporters, Clinton declared she would quash any deal that hurt American jobs. 
Clinton’s opposition to free trade deals demonstrated how decisive both the Sanders and Trump campaigns had been in shaping the narrative of the anti-free trade debate. Equally, the union base of the Democratic Party had always opposed FTAs. Had Clinton won the election, it is likely she would have attempted to revive TTIP during her tenure, as both the EU and US had pushed for a transatlantic FTA in some form since 1990. 
Verdict: This is an <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/64604-this-parrot-is-no-more-it-has-ceased-to-be" target="_blank">ex-parrot.</a>
<h2>A UK-US free trade deal?</h2>
President Obama infamously intervened in the UK Brexit debate earlier this year, declaring Britain would go “to the back of the queue” if it left the EU and sought a FTA with the US. Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox will be hoping that President-elect Trump will welcome a special free trade relationship.
During the campaign, Trump advisers indicated that he would be willing to discuss a FTA with the UK. Indeed, Trump stated that Britain would “always be at the front of the line” when it came to trade deals. This would be critical to Brexit Britain; the US is the UK’s largest third-country market, with more than £30 billion in exports.
But the UK also enjoys a trade surplus in goods and services with the US, and Trump’s administration is unlikely to grant substantial concessions to an ally that already makes substantial hay from its existing tariff arrangements.
In other words, why would President Trump do a deal that gives UK firms more access to the US market?
Verdict: Boris needs to grab that American passport of his, head for Washington and start speed-dating. Soon.
<h2>Audit the Fed!</h2>
What future for Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair? The Donald has expressed his dislike of the Federal Reserve chair on more than one occasion.
In September 2016, Trump took aim at Yellen’s near zero interest-rate policy, arguing it existed only to make Obama look good. Janet Yellen wasn’t about to take this lying down. In a press conference, she responded – implicitly – to Trump, arguing that:
“I can say emphatically that partisan politics plays no role in our decisions…We do not discuss politics at our meetings.”
It’s unknown whether Trump would seriously attempt to remove Yellen. But in May this year, he did state that he would “most likely” replace her as she was “not a Republican”. In September, Trump’s position hardened; he said he would audit the Fed and replace Yellen in the first 100 days of his administration.
There are precedents; in 1981, US Treasury Secretary Donald Regan began to brow-beat Fed Chair Paul Volcker for maintaining his tight monetary policies as the Reagan administration sought to introduce wide ranging tax cuts. Despite Reagan’s early support for Volcker (a Carter appointee), by 1987, the President had had enough; he ended Volcker’s tenure, bringing in Alan Greenspan.
Verdict: Anyone looking for a central bank chief? Used for one term only. Low, low interest rates.
<h2>Another brick in the wall</h2>
Trump’s triumph is partly built upon faulty and drastically over-simplified conceptualisations of the operation of the US and the global economy. Corporations, banks, finance and even consumers are no longer “national” entities. They have not been for many years. Manufacturing and services are not local but global. This complex web of interdependence has manifested itself over many decades.
Globalisation has even brought jobs back to America; but in the post-GFC environment, this has produced US jobs that, on average, pay 23% lower than they did prior to 2008.
Mexican walls, Chinese trade negotiations and bans on Muslims: if Trump were to implement some of these initiatives it may have some impact upon people movements. But low-tech manufacturing jobs en masse are not coming back to America. The US used to build vast numbers of radios and TVs; these have not been made in America for a long, long time. Similarly, Apple is not about to repatriate iPhone production and establish manufacturing onshore. And US corporations are not about to stop doing business with the rest of the world.
This is the brutal reality that Trump cannot smash, but his supporters appear to believe he can. He is wrong and they are wrong. And they will be bitterly disappointed.
Remy Davison is Jean Monnet Chair in Politics and Economics, Monash University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/remy-davison-2838" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

Trump can kill trade deals but he can’t kill globalisation

The potential implications of the US Presidential election on Australia: NAB's Alan Oster

<html><body>
It is no surprise the last direct link of the presidential candidate Donald Trump to Australia was a real estate conference.
It was four years ago when the entrepreneur Donald Trump told his Australian estate agent audience that owners struggling to sell their prestige homes shouldn’t fire their listing agent, just “fire them up” with the prospect of higher sales commission.
The billionaire property developer and host of The Apprentice advised his devoted audience via satellite that he regularly pays his agents 2 percent or 3 percent higher than the regular sales commission rate.
"Over the years, I have done every conceivable thing to agents, including a time when I decided to cut the agents out on a beautiful building I was marketing to try and save on the commissions,'' Trump told the audience of estate agents at the Australasian Real Estate Agents (AREC) conference on the weekend at the Gold Coast.
"But did I learn the hard way that was a bad idea. The sales I had started to dry up. I found out the agents were telling people the building was no good. They weren't stupid.
"Now I pay 7 or 8% commission and go [to] the other extreme because it means people bring buyers to me because I pay a better commission. It works.''
Trump, who praised estate agents as strong, smart and resilient, cautioned the 2,500 agent audience not to let the economic environment make them too aggressive.
"If you are too aggressive to the point where you become obnoxious, you are not a good agent,'' he said.
"When I'm looking for an agent, I look at their past success and their reputation. I want to see their record: are they honourable people, are they well liked and what is their success rate like? And if I like what I hear, I make a deal.''
Negotiation skills were also important, he added, saying his tip to prospective vendors in choosing the right real estate agent was to “look at their past success,” News Ltd papers reported.
Last month the local Apprentice television host, Mark Bouris suggested Australian estate agents would be more successful if they emulated the “big man”.
He suggested it was important to build a strong image based on consistency and trust. 
Bouris was speaking at The Great Start, an exclusive breakfast event in Sydney with an agenda to help agents build their personal brand hosted by realestate.com.au.
 
“The most important variable in how [to build a personal brand] is consistency. You’ve got to be consistently the same. People don’t like to be surprised. They want to be familiar with you. The way you build familiarity is someone sees something at the same place, at the same time, in the same way, in the same image. Familiarity also then builds trust.”
Mr Trump is the best example of this, being the “most consistent brand person” Mr Bouris has “ever seen and/or met”, the REB wesbite reported.
“Now, Donald, you might not like him, he is divisive. I get it. But he’s never off brand. Never,” Mr Bouris said.
“He is totally consistent. And you watch him today when he walks onto the stage, he’s exactly the same person he is the day before, the day before, the day before.
“He’s not changing. He’s not a shape changer. He’s not an image changer. He is consistent and persistent.
“And it seems like that’s what you’ve got to do if you want cut through to build awareness campaigns – because he’s trying to win people’s votes, which is what all of you are trying to do, or I try to do. I try to win consumers’ votes to come to me. You’re trying to win investors’ and vendors’ votes to come and see you. It’s a campaign. An election campaign. It’s about your image. It’s about being consistent.”
Mr Bouris said agents also have to be consistent in what they say, adding that they must believe the messages they’re putting out to the market.
“Whatever you decide to establish, be consistent on everything you do with it. Everything,” he said.
“This is all pervasive… It is everything you do. Everything you do.”
Mr Bouris said this consistency includes physical appearance, where, perhaps, Mr Trump offers yet another lesson.
“You have to have an image that you are consistent with physically, your appearance,” he said.
Even Mr Trump’s hair could have a lesson for agents.
“Now, we all laugh at that, but his hair is part of his physical image.
“If you look at him now, his hair has never changed colour – it’s getting a bit more yellow – but it’s never changed colour, ever since I can remember. And it is part of his physical image. He comes out always with a satin tie. It’s a pink or it’s a red or it’s a blue. He comes out with a pinstripe suit.
“He’s a big man. He’s a big guy. So his whole physical image has never changed. I’ve never seen him thinner or fatter. He’s got a sort of colour about his skin… He’s always the same. And this is a guy trying to become president of the United States. He is the alternative candidate.
“So obviously something works.”
<div class="b-article_reb__content">
<div class="b-article_reb__content__right col-sm-11 col-xs-12">
<div class="b-module module_container b-module_float_left b-module_padding_tbr">
<div class="dfp">
<div>
<div id="div-gpt-ad-1386545842669-0" data-google-query-id="CIaSrrGrltACFcYcvAodW78HTg"> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
 
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Agents told to emulate Donald Trump by local Apprentice Mark Bouris

<html><body>
Property tycoon Donald Trump’s outrider, Todd Wynee-Parry visited Australia sizing up opportunities in 2013.
A few headlines, but it never looked likely there would be any investment.
“I think [the Gold Coast] needs to rethink its development strategy and designate some proper resort sites," he advised at the time.
"The Gold Coast is a gorgeous beach with no world class resorts actually on the beach," saying Queensland needed to lift its game if it hopes to attract more premium tourism.
Mr Wynne-Parry was speaking at the Tourism &amp; Transport Forum’s 2013 Outlook Conference in Sydney where the Trump group gave fleeting interest to developing a prestige hotel and apartment Trump Tower at Sydney’s Barangaroo.
But Australian gambling tycoon James Packer had a near monopoly on that ambition.
"You're not a global hotel company unless you're in Sydney," Wynne-Parry suggested.
"There is room for another luxury hotel and we would love to be a part of Barangaroo or anything that gives us a decent shot at 150-200 rooms with some residential and good connectivity to the CBD. Maybe (we could get) concessions from the government in terms of a tax holiday or something and an enhanced GFA (gross floor area)."
Also speaking to the Tourism and Transport Forum at the Sydney Hilton via video link, Trump's daughter Ivanka -- the Trump Hotel Collection executive vice president of development and acquisitions -- said the company wanted a "very big" piece of the Australian market.
"I just wanted to reiterate how important Australia is to us strategically as we grow the Trump Hotel Collections around the globe," she said.
"There are many great cities . . . for our hotel collection and we are very excited about making our presence felt in Australia in a very big way."
Trump International's then senior vice-president for global hotel development and acquisitions, Todd Wynee-Parry departed the empire in mid-2014 when he became senior vice president development at Commune Hotels &amp; Resorts.
From October 2000 until 2006, he was in the TOGA Group to head up the growth of its hotel mamagement division.
"Todd was responsible for significant growth of the business and was directly responsible for the identification and securing of many new management opportunities," Alan Vidor said adding he was "tenanciaous, commercially astute, driven and extremely hard working." 
</body></html>

Trump remains a no-show in Australian tourism

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/67372/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Opinion polls, statistical prediction models and betting markets are now all predicting a fairly comfortable victory for Hilary Clinton in the United States presidential election.
However, they all said much the same about the prospect of British voters opting to remain in the European Union, before a majority of them actually voted to leave at the Brexit referendum in June. 
In Brexit those wanting “change” felt much more strongly about it and were thus more inclined to vote, than those favouring the status quo. This might also be the case with Trump voters. So the possibility of a Trump victory can’t be entirely dismissed – and the possible economic consequences of such an outcome are worth considering.
Precisely because a triumph for Trump has by now been so widely discounted – including by the financial markets – this outcome would prompt a much larger financial market reaction than a Clinton victory. 
The unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum saw the London share market fall by more than 5%, and the British pound by more than 8%, in the following 24 hours. And although the share market has since more than recouped its initial losses, the pound is now almost 18% below its pre-referendum level against the US dollar.
The financial market reaction to a Trump victory in the US presidential race is likely to be sharper. As the Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe noted earlier this month, “the possible election of President Trump wouldn’t be as benign an event”, as Brexit turned out to be. A paper published this week by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz (of the University of Michigan and Dartmouth College, respectively) suggests that the US, UK and Asian share markets could fall by 10-15 percent, and that the Mexican peso would fall by 25 percent, in the event of a Trump victory.
From an historical perspective this is an extraordinary prospect, given that, as Wolfers and Zitzewitz note:
"In almost every case back to 1880, equity markets have risen on the news that Republicans win elections and fall when Democrats win."
This is also because, at least superficially, Trump is proposing policies that are more likely to benefit rich households (who are more likely to own equities), while Clinton is explicitly advocating higher taxes on capital.
These findings are more understandable in the light of mainstream economists’ assessments of the likely implications of the policy proposals put forward by the two main contenders. Out of 414 respondents to a survey conducted by the US National Association of Business Economists, 55% thought Hilary Clinton would “do the best job as president of managing the economy”. 
Only 14 percent thought that Donald Trump would (and that was 1 percentage point less than the proportion who nominated Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson). It’s perhaps worth emphasising that this was a survey of business, not academic, economists.
This overwhelming view likely reflects three particularly important concerns to mainstream economists about the Republican presidential candidate’s policies.
<h2>Differences in policies</h2>
Donald Trump’s policies would significantly increase the US Budget deficit. The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) last month estimated that the combination of tax cuts and spending increases proposed by Donald Trump would add US$5.3 trillion to US public debt over the next decade, lifting it from 77 percent to 105 percent of GDP. 
By contrast, the spending and tax measures (cuts for some, increases for others) advocated by Hilary Clinton would boost public debt by US$200 billion, to 86% of GDP, over the next decade. A more recent analysis of Donald Trump’s tax proposals by the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution’s Tax Policy Center suggests that they would increase US Federal debt by US$7.2 trillion over a decade. 
While both candidates assert that their policy proposals would boost economic growth, which would in turn result in lower (rather than higher) budget deficits, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB)  calculates that economic growth would need to average 3.5% per annum over the next decade in order to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio without further tax increases. According to the CRFB, that would “likely require a level of productivity growth that has not been achieved in any decade in modern history”. Whereas the same objective would require economic growth averaging 2.7% per annum under Hillary Clinton’s proposals.
In addition to this, Donald Trump has consistently advocated a major upheaval in US trade policies, including the repudiation of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the designation of China as a “currency manipulator”. This is something which under existing US trade laws would allow the imposition of tariffs of up to 45% on goods imported into the US from China. 
The greatest adverse impact of such measures would be on low-income households in the US, as the result of having to pay much higher prices for goods that make up a large proportion of their spending. But there would also be an obvious negative impact on the Chinese economy – since China’s exports to the US account for 18% of its total exports, and just under 4% of China’s GDP. 
It’s also hard to imagine that China wouldn’t seek to retaliate in some way against any such measures by a Trump Administration. In a studypublished by the Petersen Institute, Marcus Nolan, Sherman Robinson and Tyler Moran suggest that in such circumstances, the US economy would experience a recession in 2018 and 2019, with unemployment rising to 8.6%.
It’s hard to imagine how a trade war between the world’s two largest economies, Australia’s largest and third-largest trading partners, could have anything other than negative consequences for Australia.
Another concern for mainstream economists arising from Donald Trump’s economic agenda is his contempt for the independence of the US Federal Reserve. Trump’s suggestion that the Federal Reserve should have been more willing to raise US interest rates this year is not without some basis. 
But his personal criticisms of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, combined with the fact that there are already two unfilled vacancies on the Fed’s Board of Governors, suggests that the Fed could quickly become much more politicised in the event of a Trump victory. That would likely undermine confidence in US monetary policy, potentially leading in turn to a weaker US dollar and higher US bond yields. 
<h2>Relationships between the US and other nations</h2>
Beyond these concerns to mainstream economists, the Republican candidate’s attitude to longstanding US strategic alliances – with European countries, Japan and Korea – threatens to create much greater political uncertainty around the world. It may even prompt an “arms race” entailing greater proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Trump hasn’t specifically listed Australia as being among the US allies who “aren’t paying anywhere near what it costs to defend them”. It could be that Australia’s status, as one of the few countries with which the US runs a trade surplus, puts us in a different category. Nonetheless, a deteriorating regional security environment could result in the Australian government concluding that it needs to spend more on defence.
It’s important to note that not all of the foregoing concerns will be completely alleviated should, as seems more likely, Hillary Clinton becoms the 45th President of the United States. If that result were to be accompanied by a “clean sweep” of both the Senate and (less likely) the House of Representatives, left-wing Democrats such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders will have a much larger influence on US economic policy. 
The differences between Donald Trump and the left wing of the Democratic Party on trade policy, or on the independence of the Federal Reserve, are in reality quite small. So while a Clinton victory on 8th November is much the better outcome from an Australian perspective, it would not be in Australia’s interests for her to win too well.
Saul Eslake is vice-chancellor’s fellow, University of Tasmania and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

A Trump presidency could bring a range of economic disasters

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/66755/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The 2016 US presidential election has been unprecedented in several ways. For starters, seasoned psephologists were surprised by Donald Trump’s success in the Republican primaries. 
And while the “fundamentals” of the election would suggest the Republicans would have a significant edge – due to tepid economic growth and an incumbent Democratic president – even one of the key proponents of this model doubts its applicability this year. 
The reason for this doubt is that Trump is an unconventional candidate who has eschewed normal campaign practices such as setting up field offices, building up campaign staff, fundraising, and spending on TV advertisements. 
Trump’s campaign has been built upon controversial statements that have kept his name in the news. This strategy served him well during the primaries, where he received nearly US$3 billion in free coverage. 
Any one of Trump’s major gaffes would have likely been fatal for other campaigns. But he has proven uniquely resilient. Why?
<h2>Trump and populism</h2>
The narrative the Trump campaign has played during the continual turmoil and controversy that has surrounded him is that the elites who have abandoned him or disagree with him are all part of the establishment he seeks to destroy. This is a populist appeal that resonates with a large portion of the population who feel their voices have not been heard.
Trump’s recently revealed disrespectful remarks about women fit with an identity of the alpha-male populist figure who is strong while his opponents are “weak”, “crooked”, and lacking in “stamina”.
The leader is central to the idea of populism. It is the leader who will emancipate the “people” on their behalf, unshackling them from the ills, constraints, and indignities imposed upon them by a corrupt and indifferent elite. 
Populism has been a part of American politics from its inception. The Anti-Federalists were a populist response to the push for the Constitution and the strong national government it created. 
But, as Alexis de Tocqueville observed, Americans have been able to keep populism at bay and avoid the emergence of democratic despotism to the extent that they resist reliance on strong authority figures to emancipate them. They rely more on themselves and their democratic capacities to work together to affect change in some aspect of political life. 
This is the same contrast Barack Obama drew during his speech at this year’s Democratic National Convention between his view of America and the narrative developed by the Trump campaign.
<h2>A slow-moving trainwreck?</h2>
Many Republicans are now abandoning Trump following signs his campaign may be coming off the rails completely. The release of a videoin which Trump describes himself as engaging in sexual assault led to scores of Republicans, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, abandoning him. 
However, despite early concerns, they had dutifully fallen in line endorsing him between the primaries and the convention.
One of America’s most-respected journalists, CBS’ Bob Schieffer, described Trump’s handling of himself in the second debate and particularly his threat to jail his opponent as “disgraceful” and beneath the dignity of the office he seeks. 
Yet polling reveals 2016 is one of the most stable races in modern times. The reason for this appears to be growing partisanship. There has been a significant uptick in this since the 1990s. 
Although there has been a consistent story about the level of undecideds and the level of support for third parties in this election, Democrat Hillary Clinton has retained a consistent lead since June 2016.
<h4> </h4>
<h2>Not going away</h2>
In many ways, the populist vein that Trump has tapped into won’t go away.
With a two-term Democratic president in the White House now, pundits have noted that 2016 is a “change election” whereby there is widespread fatigue for the incumbent party and demands for change, which has made the populist message resonate with so many. This has so far sustained Trump’s campaign where others might have failed.
Twitter users tend to cluster in partisan networks. Online networks are often critical for sustaining political rumours, which have played such a big part of the rise of Trump’s campaign. 
But it does not end there. If retweeting is a measure of Trump’s support on Twitter, he does not have fair-weather fans. Rather, they are in for the long haul. 
Consider the comparison between Trump and Clinton’s average tweet metrics in relation to the margin of Clinton’s polling lead. As Trump does worse in the polls, his retweets go up – whereas there is no statistically significant relationship between Clinton’s retweets and her polling margin. 
The conditions that made the Trump campaign possible will persist as long as there is a belief that governments are run by a corrupt and indifferent elite. It is a caution for whoever wins the White House that they will have to find new ways to connect with ordinary citizens.
Michael Jensen is senior research fellow, Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-jensen-306913" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

Donald Trump

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Donald Trump

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News