The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a> development in Melbourne's inner west is showing that landscaping can be just as influential as architecture, with buyers responding strongly to the garden-first approach adopted from the outset by developer Excelon Projects and the project's design team.

Excelon appointed Six Degrees Architects and landscape architects SBLA to work collaboratively on the development, with a brief to create "a sustainable, design-led building with a focus on community."

That approach has resonated with buyers. According to Next Chapter Director Tom Hirini, who is leading the sales campaign, the landscaped communal garden has become one of the project's defining features, alongside its boutique scale and European-inspired cluster housing concept.

Local downsizers, right-sizers and established families already living in Yarraville and surrounding suburbs have accounted for the majority of purchasers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297740]

Yarraville Green will comprise 53 homes, including apartments and townhomes, arranged around the shared central garden to maximise connections to the landscaped open space. Parking has been moved underground, allowing the ground plane to be dedicated to greenery, pedestrian movement and communal spaces.

The landscape extends well beyond passive planting. Productive garden beds, a pergola, communal gathering spaces, garden sheds and a pet wash have all been integrated into the masterplan, creating spaces designed to encourage everyday interaction between residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297741]

The interiors continue Excelon's focus on craftsmanship, incorporating bespoke elements by Melbourne artisans including leadlight detailing by Adadaz, hand-turned timber hardware by Auburn Woodturning and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen.

Sustainability has also been embedded throughout the project, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating through passive design principles, rooftop solar servicing common areas and rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297735]

Construction continues to progress at Yarraville Green, with structural works well underway and framing works approaching completion under builder Balmain &amp; Co. The project remains on track for completion in mid-2027.

Apartments at Yarraville Green are currently priced from $625,000, while townhomes start from $1.4 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]

Joel Robinson

Garden-led design drives buyer demand at Yarraville Green

National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]

Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]

Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]

Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 41-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 41-storey tower, which has 229 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Demographics

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The profile of private rental tenants in Australia has changed dramatically over the past 30 years, with an increasing number of families with children and older people renting for the long-term, an academic study has found.
The research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) at Swinburne University of Technology is being used to inform government policy, but private landlords may find it useful when deciding what type of property to buy or how to renovate.
The absolute number of households in the private rental market doubled to 1.8 million over the past 30 years with the biggest growth in Queensland and the ACT, according to a bulletin based on the research released in February.
Families with children represented more than 40% of renting households in 2011, a much higher proportion than in earlier decades, the bulletin noted.
The number of group households has also risen, with more than one in 10 private properties being rented by unrelated housemates in 2011, up from just over one in 25 in 1981.
Traditionally, single tenants and young families made up the largest proportion of renters. But rentals to lone person households fell to one quarter in 2011 from just over 40% in 1981.
Renting households are also getting older. More than half of renters were over 35 years of age in 2011 compared with around 40% in 1981, the bulletin reported.
“While the age profile of households in private rental housing remains young relative to all households, the median age of household heads is growing more rapidly than for households in general. This is likely to lead to the private rental sector being home to larger proportions of elderly households in the future,” the bulletin noted.
For investors, the findings suggest properties that would suit families with children, or appeal to older people will be the ones most in demand, perhaps increasingly so in future.
But be careful not to limit the range of potential tenants that a rental property will appeal to.
A location near to shops, schools and transport, as well as cafes and restaurants will be attractive to a broad range of tenants.
Features such as a second bathroom, parking or a lock-up garage, an internal laundry and a good-quality, functional kitchen will also have wide appeal.
Apartments v houses
High density housing and apartments are popular investment choice for many landlords as they tend to be cost less and offer higher yield, and maintenance is often managed by a strata company, which makes them less work for owners.
However, the AHURI research shows the proportion of private renters in apartments and high density dwellings fell to 44.8% in 2011 from 48.9% in 1981. That is in spite of a 400% increase in the number of private rentals that were apartments and a 79% increase in rental properties that were in high density housing.
By number, 80% of all growth in private rental housing has been in detached and semi-detached properties mostly in the suburbs, the research bulletin noted.
The advantages for investors in buying a house rather than a unit are that the additional land offers an opportunity for capital growth, while there’s a better chance of attracting some tenant types, such as families to rent a freestanding home with extra space for children.
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Average tenant becoming more likely to be older and have families

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The latest demographic statistics released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics have found that population growth is slowing, however the Housing Industry Association has noted that there is still strong demand for housing.
HIA economist Geordan Murray said that the latest figures have found Australia’s population reaching 23.49 million people at the end of 2013/2014, or an extra 365,000 people.
“This is equivalent to a growth rate of 1.6% over the year. This annual growth rate is down from the 1.8% rate which applied at the end of the 2012/13 fiscal year, but is still well above the long term average,” said Murray.
“The natural increase in population (births minus deaths) added 152,173 people in 2013/14. This contribution was 6% lower than in the previous year.”
Net overseas migration slowed in 2013/2014, with 212,695 more people than those departing – about 10% less than 2012/2013.
“Compared with many other developed economies, Australia has been a star performer over the last few years,” he said.
“With shortages of skilled labour evident in many industries and a relatively strong looking economy, Australia has proved to be a very attractive destination for overseas migrants and was equally attractive for Australians who would have otherwise considered opportunities overseas.”
The strongest states for population growth over the year were New South Wales and Victoria.
“Last financial year both these states recorded their strongest annual population growth rates in over twenty years, excluding the period skewed by the GFC,” he explained.
Murray noting that the annual growth for Victoria was 1.9% and for New South Wales it was 1.5%. Western Australia, however, is the star performer with 2.2% population growth. However, this is down from 3.3% last year.
Queensland increased 1.5%, while South Australia grew by 0.9% and Tasmania recorded 0.3% growth. The Northern Territory and ACT saw growth of 1.0% and 1.2% respectively.
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Population growth slows, but property demand high: HIA

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We are all living longer and that fact alone is having a big impact on the housing market as the population grows and ages.
However, it is the baby boomers that right now are shaping many areas of the housing market. As life expectancy among the boomers continues to rise, a more complex housing market is evolving.
There has been a 100% increase in the numbers of people living beyond 55 plus and a 150% increase in the numbers of people aged 75 plus. At the same time as the baby boomers age, their health has improved, and a longer life span is leading to pressures on aged welfare payments and health care costs. There are also longer term pressures building on how superannuation savings are managed and invested and how public pensions are funded.
As a result the traditional idea of retirement and retirement housing has shifted and continues to do so with some very dramatic consequences for the housing market.
Where and how the baby boomers live in retirement looks nothing like the retirement plans and hopes of their parents. The idea of moving to a sleepy coastal town, or traditional retirement village is being replaced with an appetite for lifestyles as diverse as living on a luxury liner (for the lucky few) or the more accessible idea of moving to a lifestyle resort with apartments and villas clustered around a golf course and access to a cinema, resort style pool and other amenities.
A key idea driving retirement living is the desire to stay connected. As people live longer and stay in good health they want to stay connected to family, the kids, the grand kids and lifelong friends, the idea of moving away from all of these connections has no appeal. Those living in retirement, or soon to retire, are no longer heading towards accommodation in clusters, they are aging in place and that means possibly staying longer in the current family home in metro, regional and country locations.
Existing homes are being renovated in greater numbers to accommodate their needs, by for example improving access to bathroom facilities and by reorganising accommodation so that stairs are eliminated.
Of course some people do move house, either trading up or down the price ladder and many new homes now feature a ground floor bedroom and bathroom. There’s also a continued trend towards boomers moving into CBD apartments, or apartments that a very well connected to local facilities. Sydney’s Double Bay and Bondi Junction are just two areas where this trend is evident. It’s all a part of being connected to the community and people's health care is also better managed when they are close to established medical facilities, a point not wasted on federal and state Treasurers.
More Flexibility Requires More Income
Recent federal budgets have started to directly address retirement issues, the retirement age is being increased, yes we are living longer, but we are also working longer by choice and by necessity.
As part of the housing equation income planning is now a central concern, people want to have more control when they retire and this is leading to a greater trend towards semi-retirement, with more lifestyle flexibility. By moving into retirement slowly, people are able to retain the family home longer, or plan their move to say a new apartment project, in an orderly fashion and possibly over a number of years. This is often an appealing solution for those who are asset rich, but cash poor.
If people do not want to sell their homes and move to fund part of their retirement income, staying local looks to be a long-term trend. Staying connected also means more boomers are looking for flexibility in their housing options and moving to semi-retirement may well have the impact of delaying the possible turnover of some existing housing stock. However it appears that it is quality of life that will drive retirement housing options. It is interesting to note that it’s the more highly paid who work longer and those that retire early usually do so not for financial reasons, but for health reasons as their ability to work is diminished.
Somehow that retirement cottage on the beach has lost its appeal, while a CBD apartment gains appeal and boomers weigh up how best to fund their future lifestyle and housing needs.
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How Baby Boomers retirement plans are impacting the housing market

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A huge shift in net interstate migration has taken place since the financial crisis, a major demographic trend which is a game-changer for this property market cycle, particularly in Sydney. Let's take a look in four short parts.
Part 1 - Mining states slowing...but Sydney booming 
Drilling into the most recent round of demographic data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed an interesting fact: net interstate migration from New South Wales has declined to its lowest level on record at just 1,036 in the March 2014 quarter.
Typically there has been a very significant population flow away from NSW, especially expensive Greater Sydney, which is comfortably more than replaced by immigrants from overseas and natural population increase. But as the mining construction boom fades so too does the tide of interstate population shift away from Sydney.
The mining states which have benefited most from net interstate migration historically are now no longer doing so - predominantly the maroon line of Queensland (and how!), the gold line of Western Australia (we use state cricket colours, see?) and the red of South Australia (Redbacks? Ah, you have the hang of it now), in that order.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TqZE7VZ8DeY/VFFcNaz6RgI/AAAAAAAAQ00/_WzKb3KVooI/s1600/NIM.jpg">
Instead an expected rebound in services and construction jobs in Sydney and to a lesser extent Melbourne is seeing a massive boom in the population of those two cities.
Charted below is the annualised rate of population growth by state, which shows New South Wales (+115,000) now threatening to spiral off the top of the chart, with Victoria (+109,000) not too far behind.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-afEmTfIBbSk/VFDtIiTQVCI/AAAAAAAAQzw/ZC_nBRz52Dg/s1600/DEMOG2.jpg">
It never pays to get too aroused by one quarter of data - particularly from ABS releases at the present time! But the population change in the March 2014 quarter showed NSW recording an extraordinary increase of 35,285, potentially implying an unheard of annualised pace of well over 140,000.
In the event, we will not see the state's annual population growth figure scaling such dizzying heights due to the now slowing pace of net overseas migration, with fewer Kiwis and Poms in particular choosing to take the path Down Under at this stage in the cycle. Indeed, most immigrants to Australia now hail from Asia.
Nevertheless, despite the slowing pace of net overseas migration, by the time the June 2014 data rolls around we will probably see New South Wales annual population growth approaching 120,000, which is a huge figure.
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6qzI7bGd7Hs/VFDtI7tCGpI/AAAAAAAAQz0/fNpiDo3qm-s/s1600/DEMOG3.jpg">
Part 2 - Dwelling supply: too hot, too cold...or just right?
There is some some conflicting and some zany market commentary when it comes to the adequacy of dwelling supply in Australia, often involving a preconceived notion ("massive overbuilding" or "chronic undersupply") and the producing of data to support the position.
Sometimes we see analysis of building completions in Australia compared to the existing population, which is an interesting point of comparison, but a clear confusion of stock versus flow.
Much more unusually we see offbeat comparisons of Australian construction versus that seen in certain US states which previously had a cahuna oversupply and now aren't constructing much (relevance?), or on particularly obscure days, comparisons with Japanese construction. 
The slightly boring answer is that there is no chronic undersupply of dwellings in Australia and nor is there massive overbuilding in aggregate, although it is possible to highlights regions and suburbs which represent examples of each.
Property markets are complex and imperfect beasts. If you can analyse and understand data flows it becomes possible to identify specific areas where undersupply will begin to bite, and thus you can comfortably outperform market capital growth averages over time by buying investment property with an element of scarcity value in these locations. 
The data to analyse 
A better starting point is to scrutinise Australian building approvals, dwelling commencements and completions data against the changes in demand in Australia, drawing inferences based upon average household sizes (a little over 2.5 depending on your preferred source) for the regions analysed.
There have been warnings about a potential oversupply of dwellings in Sydney, for example. Travelling around certain parts of town I can see why you might reach that conclusion, but from a macro perspective, you'd be wrong. 
There is something of an oversupply of units looming in a few pockets - in the CBD and inner city, around the airport and inner south, and in a few of the new Urban Activation Precincts (UAPs) around transport hubs, where there will now be fewer height restriction on the building of apartment tower blocks.
Largely bought by offshore investors, these off-the-plan apartments will generally be poor performers and are likely to suffer from falling rents, vacancies, and possibly both.
(As an aside it's often highlighted how most property investor loans written are for established dwellings, but since there are now 9,366,800 dwellings and counting in Australia, and since a high proportion of the new stock is sold offshore, the percentage of domestic investment in established stock will continue to rise. 
Moreover, established properties usually represent better value than most expensive new units and therefore a majority of domestic investors will rationally steer clear of the newly constructed stock in the absence of incentives to do otherwise. In short, we probably do need foreign investors to create supply).
Sure, there are some areas where there are more new flats than willing renters. But ask anyone in the market and they'll tell you that in the lifestyle suburban areas where most people actually want to live, precisely the opposite problem exists - there is a dearth of quality stock and the decent stuff is selling in a matter of days.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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Part 3 - New stock has come online 
Think back to the annualised population growth figures discussed previously for New South Wales, which are tracking at about 115,000 over the year to March 2014. In the 12 months to June 2014, the state saw the completion of 19,134 houses...
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9sqF6UvrvTg/VFDtMwvBFQI/AAAAAAAAQ0M/scA_2nrj8wE/s1600/DEMOG6.jpg">
...and only 17,510 completions for unit and apartments.
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pey-sa1PVEE/VFDtNSYhAJI/AAAAAAAAQ0U/ltPQkykWxb8/s1600/DEMOG7.jpg">
That's a grand total of 36,644 completions. Given that the state population in the year to March 2014 increased by 114,509, I don't think we need to panic about massive overbuilding just yet.
Completions have not even been high enough to match the demand from the state population growth let alone address previously inherent supply imbalances in Sydney...and that's before we even begin to account for brownfield site demolitions and stock obsolescence.
In fact, if you drill in more closely to the population and demographics data you will find that population growth in New South Wales regional centres has been far below the national averages in all but a tiny handful of localities. Meanwhile Greater Sydney is set to record population growth somewhere in the vicinity of 90,000 in this calendar year.
Part 4 - Decent approvals &amp; supply in the pipeline
In terms of forthcoming supply, it is true that there is more to come in the pipeline. In the 12 months to June 2014, New South Wales commenced 20,000 houses and 25,000 units. And Greater Sydney apartment approvals are now tracking at a little over 26,000 on a rolling annual basis.
That's a decent enough supply response to rising prices, assuming all approvals make it to completion, which they won't.
However the level of monthly apartment approvals peaked way back in March 2014 and is now rolling over. The major developers, who are nobody's dummies, are aiming to have their Greater Sydney new apartment stock completed and sold by December 2015.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T_iG24vTjOY/VFDtODsprWI/AAAAAAAAQ0c/uz-oy6QHkaY/s1600/DEMOG8.jpg">
Oversupply theory? Doesn't pass the "sniff test".
With the exception of the aforementioned locations, there is no city-wide oversupply of dwellings in Sydney, and nor is there going to be any time soon. 
Inner Melbourne and inner Brisbane are two other areas we can talk about with an apartment oversupply. And, for example, some coal mining towns and regions are likely to experience oversupply too, albeit as result of a collapse in demand rather than overbuilding.
As a Chartered Accountant and sometime auditor, too many years ago now I was trained at accounting college to consider that when people make sweeping yet unsubstantiated claims such as "there is an obscene amount of construction going on in Sydney" then that claim should be weighed up against or made to pass a common sense or "sniff test".
Even if you choose to dismiss vacancy rates as an unreliable indicator, which in Sydney are hovering way below the notional equilibrium position of 3% at just 1.7%, the best "sniff test" for oversupply to my mind is to look for signs of negative rental growth. 
Today apartment rental growth is tracking somewhere between at 3% and 5.3% in Sydney, depending on your data provider of choice.
Over the past 10 years the growth in median rental for detached houses in Sydney has been 80%, and for attached dwellings the equivalent growth in median rental is 77%.
'Nuff said.
You can visit <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) or Pete's <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blog</a>.
His latest book is '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' .
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Migration away from Sydney falls to record low

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The speed of population growth into Australia has been winding down since reaching a recent annual peak in December 2012 when the national population grew by 1.78% over the year.
With overseas migration moderating and a slowdown in the rate of natural increase, the annual rate of population growth across the country has slipped to 1.69% over the year ending March 2014. The more timely overseas arrivals and departures data indicates that net overseas migration to Australia is continuing to slow down, so we should expect the rate of population growth to continue tapering over the near term.
Across the states there is a third component of population growth; interstate migration flows. The trends of migration flows between the states has been changing over the past few years with the mining states demonstrating a sharp slowdown in both overseas migration flows as well as less net migration across the state borders. Conversely, the non-mining states are seeing a pick-up in interstate migration flows as workers ‘bounce’ back from resources sector jobs that are no longer there.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/1-Rolling-annual-change-in-Australias-population.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3882" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/1-Rolling-annual-change-in-Australias-population-580x120.jpg" alt="1 Rolling annual change in Australias population" width="580" height="120"></a>
The following dashboards highlight the interstate migration flows for each state; what are the overall interstate migration trends, where are the migrants coming from and where are they going to?
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-nsw-vic-qld-sa-wa.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3883" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-nsw-vic-qld-sa-wa-580x120.jpg" alt="2 Net qtrly interstate migration nsw vic qld sa wa" width="580" height="120"></a>
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/3-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-tas-nt-act.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3884" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/3-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-tas-nt-act-580x120.jpg" alt="3 Net qtrly interstate migration tas nt act" width="580" height="120"></a>
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/4-Annual-net-interstate-migration-flows.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3885" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/4-Annual-net-interstate-migration-flows-580x166.jpg" alt="4 Annual net interstate migration flows" width="580" height="166"></a>
Across NSW interstate migration remains in negative territory (in fact there hasn’t been a single period over the ABS historical series where net interstate migration has moved into positive territory in NSW). With a net interstate migration figure of -1,036 over the 12 months ending March 2014, this is the smallest net loss of interstate migrants for NSW on record.
The improved interstate migration figures are largely being driven by an improvement in net migration between Queensland where the net rate of interstate migration was at a record low of -4,786 over the year to March 2014. To provide some context, in 2003 the net interstate migration deficit between NSW and Queensland was just under 26,000.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/5-NSW-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3886" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/5-NSW-IM-stats-453x580.jpg" alt="5 NSW IM stats" width="453" height="580"></a>
Victoria is now the national leader for interstate migration, taking the title away from Queensland since the September quarter last year based on annual net migration figures. Net interstate migration into Victoria is currently at a record high with a net 2,468 more residents moving to the state from other regions of Australia.
Net migrants from NSW were the most substantial interstate contributors to Victorian population growth; however the trend of interstate arrivals from the mining states to Victoria is at record levels and trending higher.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/6-VIC-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3887" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/6-VIC-IM-stats-453x580.jpg" alt="6 VIC IM stats" width="453" height="580"></a>
Queensland is no longer attracting the largest number of net interstate migrants, falling to second position after Victoria since the September quarter last year. Over the year to March 2014 the state of Queensland attracted an additional 5,772 net interstate migrants which is only slightly higher than the previous all-time low of 5,384 net interstate migrants recorded over the year ending December 2010.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/7-QLD-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3888" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/7-QLD-IM-stats-450x580.jpg" alt="7 QLD IM stats" width="450" height="580"></a>
Net interstate migration into South Australia hasn’t changed a great deal over recent years with the quarterly rate of net migrants typically bouncing between -1,500 and -500 over the past decade. The largest portion of state residents are lost to Victoria, where over the year ending March 2014 there was a net interstate loss of 1,827 residents to Victoria.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/8-SA-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3889" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/8-SA-IM-stats-448x580.jpg" alt="8 SA IM stats" width="448" height="580"></a>
 
Western Australia still lays claim to the title of ‘fastest growing state’ with an annual population growth rate of 2.5%, there has been a consistent moderation in the rate of growth since a recent annual peak of 3.72% over the year ending September 2012. WA is still attracting a positive net interstate migration rate, however there were only 256 net interstate migrants to WA over the March quarter, down from a recent high of 3,395 over the March quarter of 2012.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/9-WA-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3890" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/9-WA-IM-stats-452x580.jpg" alt="9 WA IM stats" width="452" height="580"></a>
Net interstate migration into Tasmania has remained in negative territory since late 2010, however the trend is showing some constancy and is now approaching a neutral rate of interstate migration. The last time net interstate migration was substantially positive into Tasmania was between 2003 and 2004 when housing markets were booming.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/10-Tas-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3891" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/10-Tas-IM-stats-453x580.jpg" alt="10 Tas IM stats" width="453" height="580"></a>
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Interstate migration to Victoria at record highs

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Currently Australia has a population of some 23,640,000 and we are rapidly heading towards the 24 million mark.
In the most recent population update issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the March quarter 2014 there are some interesting facts and some shifting fortunes for various Australian states. Some of the changes directly reflect the shifting strengths of the associated local real estate market, but there are many other influences the population is having on demand for housing.
Our march towards a population of 24 million is being fuelled by some key facts; our birth-rate is healthy while our death-rate is much lower. According to the ABS a new birth takes place every one minute and 43 seconds, while a death occurs every three minutes and 31 seconds. So births are well ahead. There is one new international migration into Australia every two minutes and five seconds, and we have the net result adding one new person to the local population every one minute and 17 seconds.  Our population growth rate is at around 1.8% which is very high by international standards; therefore we lead the OECD ranks.
It’s little wonder that we see so many new baby wear shops in our local shopping centres, and also continued strong demand for housing.
International Migration
While our natural rate of population growth is impressive, it only accounts for 40% of overall growth, with 60% coming from international migration to Australia. The impact is also apparent in NSW and Victoria, the two states currently leading in population gains.
The March Quarter ABS figures show that in NSW the population increased by 114,500 with 67% of that coming from net overseas migration. In Victoria the population grew by 108,800 with migration making a 57% contribution and we know that these two states also have the most demand for housing and the most robust prices. Clearly the arrival of one new international migrant almost every two minutes is having a major impact on growth and creates more immediate demand for housing than the numbers of new born babies.
Interstate Migration Shows Major Shifts
While WA still leads in the rate of growth at 2.5%, that is well down from the rate of 3.5% just 12 months ago, as momentum is shifting towards the big states like NSW and with its current population at 7,500,600 it’s easy to see how important that state and Victoria and their local economies are as we move out of the mining boom. The ABS figures go further and show how population trends have changed over the last five years.
In 2009 some 12,300 residents left NSW to move to Queensland, in 2014 that figure had fallen to 4,800.  That’s a very big shift. More people are arriving and staying in NSW where housing supply is at its most critical. At the same time growth has slowed in Queensland and WA. In fact NSW has recorded its lowest interstate migration of population in 30 years and Victoria has had its highest gains on interstate migration to that state on record. Queensland has seen its lowest rate of gain, dropping 65% in five years.
We are seeing some changes that are reversing decade-long trends and the different population pressures in each state are reflected in local demand for housing. New migrants and expanded families need homes and both are having a major impact on our local real estate markets and possibly compounding the problems of undersupply.
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Population growth compounding our undersupply problems

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Master planned communities will be South East Queensland's retirement hot spots in 2031, taking over from sea change destinations that are home to the largest numbers of older Australians now, Urban Economics predicts.
Bribie Island had South East Queensland's largest population of people aged over 65 in 2011, according to Urban Economics analysis of census data. The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast were also popular retirement destinations.
"We are going to continue to see those areas as important but going into 2021, tree change areas pick up in importance, then to 2031, growth areas such as Greenbank and Ripley – the master planned communities – become important," Urban Economics managing director Kerrianne Bonwick-Meulman said.
The researcher forecast that in 2021 Bribie Island would continue to be home to South East Queensland's largest population of retirees with an estimated 4246 people aged 65 to 74; 3695 people aged 75 to 84 years; and 1454 people aged over 85.
But by 2031, Ripley near Ipswich would take over with a projected population of 7947 people aged 65 to 74; 5807 people aged 75 to 84; and 2765 people aged 85 plus.
Bonwick-Meulman said the shift was related to land availability.
Families moving to master planned areas now would be approaching their early, active retirement years in 2031 and would want to remain in their neighbourhoods, she said.
The trend meant there was a need to ensure master planned communities could cater to the needs of older people by incorporating health care facilities and smaller houses aimed at retirees downsizing their homes for example.
"It's about providing choice and diversity of housing stock that can best meet their needs," Bonwick-Meulman said.
Developments completed in the 1970s where most residents are now approaching retirement often lack the facilities that older people need to remain in the community.
Bonwick-Meulman said there was an opportunity for South East Queensland's master planned communities currently in the development stages, such as Ripley, Springfield and Greenbank, to ensure people who are buying into those areas now know that there will be options for them when they are older.
South East Queensland suburbs with the highest population of 65-74 year olds
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2011</td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2021</td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2031</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>3,290</td>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>4,246</td>
<td>Ripley</td>
<td>7,947</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>2,530</td>
<td>Noosa Hinterland</td>
<td>3,477</td>
<td>Greenbank</td>
<td>5,298</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Noosa Hinterland</td>
<td>2,323</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>3,311</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>4,250</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Beachmere - Sandstone Pt</td>
<td>2,131</td>
<td>Robina</td>
<td>3,068</td>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>4,232</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Maroochydore - Kuluin</td>
<td>2,066</td>
<td>Maroochydoore - Kuluin</td>
<td>2,797</td>
<td>Noosa Hinterland</td>
<td>4,045</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
South East Queensland suburbs with the highest population of 75-84 year olds 
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2011 </td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2021 </td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2031 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>2,446</td>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>3,695</td>
<td>Ripley</td>
<td>5,807</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>1,564</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>2,118</td>
<td>Greenbank</td>
<td>4,456</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Maroochydore - Kuluin</td>
<td>1,381</td>
<td>Beachmere - Sandstone Pt</td>
<td>2,052</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>3,610</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Beachmere - Sandstone Pt</td>
<td>1,344</td>
<td>Noosa Hinterland</td>
<td>1,923</td>
<td>Caloundra - West</td>
<td>3,139</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Caloundra - West</td>
<td>1,294</td>
<td>Maroochydore - Kuluin</td>
<td>1,839</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>2,975</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
South East Queensland suburbs with the highest population of 80+ year olds 
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2011 </td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2021 </td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2031 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>964</td>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>1,454</td>
<td>Ripley</td>
<td>2,765</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nambour</td>
<td>644</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>1,151</td>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>2,237</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>626</td>
<td>Maroochydore - Kuluin</td>
<td>969</td>
<td>Caloundra - West</td>
<td>1,999</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Caloundra - West</td>
<td>583</td>
<td>Caloundra - West</td>
<td>891</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>1,606</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Maroochydore - Kuluin</td>
<td>581</td>
<td>Cleveland</td>
<td>872</td>
<td>Robina</td>
<td>1,403</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Retirees to favour master planned communities by 2031: Urban Economics

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One does not need to be Albert Einstein to see that for decades and decades the Australian real estate industry has been running blind – so it's very interesting to observe that now a cavalcade of seeing eye-dogs have been brought in to add some vision and clarity.
Having said that, there is plenty of work to do, and the Federal and State Governments will have to do plenty of the heavy lifting for a change. Again, the spotlight keeps shining away from the main accelerants that have seen investors not just entering the market but dominating it, coupled with overseas investors lunging at every off-the-plan sale that hits the market.
Australia simply does not have enough property to meet demand given our population keeps increasing at a growth rate of 1.7%. In the year to March 2014 the Australian population increased by 388,400 to reach 23.4 million.
Instead of continually slugging the taxpayers, overseas investors should be hit with a surcharge and the investors who prefer to keep their properties vacant should be hit with a Vacancy Tax.
The Senate Inquiry into overseas investors has shown glaring holes in how the Foreign Investment Review Board operates (or attempts to) with a staff of under 10 people. Again, this highlights that Australia does not even have a Housing Minister – so who then is taking responsibility and managing this?
Yes – it's reasonable to suggest that Australia is fast becoming a country of landlords and renters, although one needs to ask, had the Rudd Government implemented the recommendations from the Henry Tax Review, how would the Australian property landscape look today? We will never know – however, isn't it time we had this conversation again?
We have the David Murray Financial System Inquiry deadline now just over two months away and there is much speculation about how much they will recommend the banks keep in their piggy banks. How much capital should the banks hold in the event of a property market downturn to avoid the domino effect?
This week the worst kept secret was all but confirmed, where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority have almost certainly agreed to introduce macro-prudential policies in an attempt to ease property prices.
It's a start. However; the measures will hardly put a dent in prices.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
To really have a closer examination; look no further than the report filed last year by Saul Eslake: 50 Years of Housing Policy Failure.
In a nutshell, he writes that cynical politics had kept policies in place that made it harder for people to buy their first home.
"While political parties and governments profess to care about first home buyers, the reality is that in a typical year fewer than 100,000 people succeed in attaining home ownership for the first time; whereas there are some 5.8 million households (and over eight million people) who already own at least one property."
This week RP Data revealed that the number of properties listed for sale in all capital cities, excluding Perth, is 11.6% lower than in September 2013. So introducing macro-prudential policies will hardly affect investors who are borrowing against their existing property portfolios.
<img src="/images/2014/09/30/24-09-2014-9-34-41-AM.jpg" alt="">
Property investors have entered the market with "eyes-wide-open" given that just a few years ago they witnessed firsthand what happens to property prices when we inherited the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) – this is a long term investment. Many are taking a safer punt on property and have walked away from the share market (which has had a shocking run of late) to lock and load into bricks and mortar.
There will be major changes ahead for Australia's tax system where many of the changes will be made to the property taxation benefits that investors are currently taking full advantage of. It's a win-win for the property investors given with all new taxes they are generally retrospective so the investors will be working from a 100 base – history shows this very clearly.
 <img src="/images/2014/09/30/24-09-2014-1-30-26-PM.jpg" alt="">
On the assumption that eventually the GST will be increased to 15%. construction will slow down further, which is exactly what happened in Australia previously following the introduction of the GST.
The developers wear the GST so that it then comes off their respective bottom lines by significantly reducing their profit margins – GST on construction has been a dismal failure which clearly explains why construction is in decline.
So there is a lot of method to the present investor madness – where for those looking at this from a different perspective the vast majority are on a win-win property formula.
No doubt they will be smiling even more when the read a recent article in The Economist, Birth Right – Where to be born in 2013, where Australia was ranked second from the top.
 
 
 
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

A broken system: investors are laughing all the way

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Six years ago McCrindle Research (one of Australia's leading research houses) predicted that by 2020 the Australian population would reach 24 million. At the time - 2008 - our population was 21.4 million.
Based on the Australian Bureau of growth statistics (2013), we're growing by:
<ul>
<li>one birth every one minute and 42 seconds,</li>
<li>one death every three minutes and 34 seconds,</li>
<li>a net gain of one international migration every two minutes and 14 seconds, leading to</li>
<li>an overall total population increase of one person every one minute and 20 seconds.</li>
</ul>
As I write this article in August 2014 Australia's population sits at 23.5 million (<a href="https://abs.gov/" target="_blank">abs.gov</a>). If my calculations are correct, we're growing by 395,188 people every year. By New Years Eve in 2020, we'll add another 2.371 million people to our population. Last time I checked ... 23.5 million plus 2.3 million equals 25.8 million.
We'll be 10% bigger at almost 26 million people. By 2020 we won't just reach 24 million - we'll have enough new blood to add another Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin, Canberra, Townsville and Cairns into the mix!
It's just "numbers" you say, but take note - these "numbers" will have a massive effect on the Australian economy and the thousands of property markets across Australia.
As the federal government has recently signalled - adding salt to the wound will be our ageing population; lots of significantly older adults.
Around 200,000 people reached 65 years of age in 2011. Between January 2012 and December 2020 another 5.4 million will join them. That little fact may not mean much today - but with Baby Boomers exiting the workforce in large numbers, we're staring down the barrel of a lot more people and a lot less tax payers.
A bit more research (another McCrindle report) revealed that in 2012 the median age was 38. They also predict that in 2050 our median age will be 43. We're growing older and living longer.
The double-edged sword? We're also losing our kids to the 'global village' - what we read about at university back in the 60s and 70s, they now live in. Our younger generations grow up, study, possibly received government funding or HECS support to gain their qualifications and leave our shores in increasing numbers to work in others countries.
In 2012, a reported 257,258 Australians left the 'lucky country' permanently - a quarter of a million Aussies said goodbye!
When I sat my HSC 42 years ago we didn't have pocket calculators - they weren't available in Australia. "How the times they are a changing"
I know at least some of these kids found that international job on their mobile device, accepted the offer, negotiated their remuneration package and booked their flights the same way. Leaving without a second thought.
The undeniable challenge we must now address is that we have a mass exit at the top of the age scale, a significant one in the lower age bracket - and the people in the middle are going to suffer. Your retirement age has already been increased to 70 years of age.
What's next then?
This is what's next, and it's a real eye opener. In 2013, only four percent of Aussies over the age of 65 years were self-funded retirees.
What the? 96% of people over the age of 65 were either reliant on a tax-payer funded pension, still working, or deceased. And as I said earlier, with the Boomers exiting the workforce in large numbers, we're staring down the barrel of a lot less tax payers to fund those pensions.
If people in the middle age bracket (38-55 years of age) don't take control of their financial futures right now, they really won't have much to look forward to in retirement.
If you're in that middle group and you're 'stuck'; unsure of how to shape your financial future so you can see the retirement you want and deserve, then you need to invest in your financial education now.
By developing your financial education, you'll create the ability to identify opportunities to help maximise your income and asset potential, and in return create a passive income in retirement.
Kevin Lee is the property investment expert and buyer's agent at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Smart Property Adviser</a>.
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The demographic storm about to hit Australia

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A<a href="/expert-insights/investing/australias-top-25-most-expensive-suburbs-rp-data"> recent RP Data report</a> stated the number of suburbs across Australia with a median price of at least $1 million has increased by more than 33% in 12 months - and it looked as though they were suggesting this is a good thing.
Make no mistake - this revelation of 417 suburbs should sound warning bells for the 'average Australian'. Our state and federal governments rabbit on about the need for affordable housing - since when did house prices of $1 million fit that bill?
As you might expect, many of the suburbs that made the list were in the major capitals - Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. The combined population of these three cities is approx 11 million, or 46% of Australia's total.
So let's do the math for a 35 year old working Sydney couple with one child. They're buying a home in a Sydney suburb for that median price of $1 million and they don't want to pay lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).
Suppose they met and fell in love eight years ago and started saving for their 'average home' pretty soon after. Our 'model couple' married, had a baby and have been super diligent too - saving $250,000 i n that time. That's an average of $31,000 a year for eight years.
Nice one! Who do you know that can do that? Not many? Mmmm - thought so.
Let's stop here for a minute: what buying a home for $1 million plus is doing is sucking the life out of people who are in the prime of their life, just so they can buy an average home in one of those 417 suburbs.
Out of that $250,000 deposit, they need to allow:
<ul>
<li>A little over $40,800 for stamp duty + associated fees in Sydney</li>
<li>Around $3200 for their legals and conveyancing</li>
<li>And $500 or so for their bank fees</li>
</ul>
By the time they add removal costs and a few other incidentals, they've just burned $50,000. Leaving this lovely couple $200,000 to put towards the purchase: their deposit. This means that they need an $800,000 mortgage. No problem, book that appointment with your friendly bank manager or mortgage adviser.
Oh dear ... do they qualify for an $800,000 loan? A quick calculation suggests that with the current 'super low interest rates' on offer, our couple with one child, two cars and a car loan only need to earn a combined $130,000 a year to be approved for this loan.
For this exercise I'll assume a split of: $85,000 for the breadwinner and $45,000 for the person who most carries household and child responsibilities. These two incomes deliver $64,000 and $38,250 after tax. A quick monthly calculation tells the real story: they have $5,324 &amp; $3,189 net monthly income after tax.
I t's time to celebrate - your loan is approved!
But now it's crunch time people! At just 4.69% (the super low rate currently on offer) the $800,000 loan to purchase that average home will cost our average family $4,145 per month.
That's monthly until they reach 65 years of age. $4,145 a month for the rest of their working lives! Almost 49% of their combined net income goes towards making their minimum loan repayments. And if our friends can't pay it off faster, they will have paid more than $1,000,000 in bank interest during t hat time.
What will happen though when their interest rate increases to just 6.6%? That monthly repayment jumps by a grand to $5,157 - ouch. I think you can work the rest of this math exercise out?
So our average couple bought an average home in one of 417 average suburbs with an above average deposit and above average sized mortgage...
And pretty much gave up their opportunity to become an average family of two adults and two kids.
Listen up people. Unless he's Walter White they can't ever afford to have baby number two.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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The mysterious world of finance can be honed down to just three questions:
<ol>
<li>Can you pay back the loan?</li>
<li>Will you pay back the loan?</li>
<li>If it goes pear shaped, what can we sell?</li>
</ol>
If you fail to meet any one of the three criteria questions you will not be approved for finance.
Here's what hurts the feelings of so many people: the primary reason a couple wants to purchase one of these million dollar homes is to keep up appearances - I see it all the time.
Shelling out almost half your net income each month for a roof over your head is not the smartest move for most couples. Lose your job, become ill or have an accident that stops you from working and you're in trouble. This kind of financial stress kills even the strongest relationships.
People who need to keep up appearances aren't thinking about their financial future at all. They're all about 'I want it and I want it now'. Dangerous ground indeed - especially when interest rates increase in 2015 and beyond.
Many a credit rating (CRAA File) has been severely damaged over the years by this scenario and the resultant relationship breakdown.
It's articles like that RP Data Report that feed ego driven decisions and encourage people to believe that it's a 'fantastic' idea to purchase these types of properties.
Because we all know the mantra: "Property values always double every seven to 10 years."
Yeah right! Pigs might fly too.
It kills me to know that so many people fall into the trap of buying the wrong type of property, when the investors I'm working with are buying their first, second and third investments just weeks after getting started.
It's time for a reality check.
Here's a sample of the ‘no go’ suburbs from the RP Data list:
 <img src="/images/2014/08/21/rp-data-aug-21-two.png">
Kevin Lee is the property investment expert and buyer's agent at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Smart Property Adviser</a>.
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