Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Demographics

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The profile of private rental tenants in Australia has changed dramatically over the past 30 years, with an increasing number of families with children and older people renting for the long-term, an academic study has found.
The research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) at Swinburne University of Technology is being used to inform government policy, but private landlords may find it useful when deciding what type of property to buy or how to renovate.
The absolute number of households in the private rental market doubled to 1.8 million over the past 30 years with the biggest growth in Queensland and the ACT, according to a bulletin based on the research released in February.
Families with children represented more than 40% of renting households in 2011, a much higher proportion than in earlier decades, the bulletin noted.
The number of group households has also risen, with more than one in 10 private properties being rented by unrelated housemates in 2011, up from just over one in 25 in 1981.
Traditionally, single tenants and young families made up the largest proportion of renters. But rentals to lone person households fell to one quarter in 2011 from just over 40% in 1981.
Renting households are also getting older. More than half of renters were over 35 years of age in 2011 compared with around 40% in 1981, the bulletin reported.
“While the age profile of households in private rental housing remains young relative to all households, the median age of household heads is growing more rapidly than for households in general. This is likely to lead to the private rental sector being home to larger proportions of elderly households in the future,” the bulletin noted.
For investors, the findings suggest properties that would suit families with children, or appeal to older people will be the ones most in demand, perhaps increasingly so in future.
But be careful not to limit the range of potential tenants that a rental property will appeal to.
A location near to shops, schools and transport, as well as cafes and restaurants will be attractive to a broad range of tenants.
Features such as a second bathroom, parking or a lock-up garage, an internal laundry and a good-quality, functional kitchen will also have wide appeal.
Apartments v houses
High density housing and apartments are popular investment choice for many landlords as they tend to be cost less and offer higher yield, and maintenance is often managed by a strata company, which makes them less work for owners.
However, the AHURI research shows the proportion of private renters in apartments and high density dwellings fell to 44.8% in 2011 from 48.9% in 1981. That is in spite of a 400% increase in the number of private rentals that were apartments and a 79% increase in rental properties that were in high density housing.
By number, 80% of all growth in private rental housing has been in detached and semi-detached properties mostly in the suburbs, the research bulletin noted.
The advantages for investors in buying a house rather than a unit are that the additional land offers an opportunity for capital growth, while there’s a better chance of attracting some tenant types, such as families to rent a freestanding home with extra space for children.
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Average tenant becoming more likely to be older and have families

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The latest demographic statistics released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics have found that population growth is slowing, however the Housing Industry Association has noted that there is still strong demand for housing.
HIA economist Geordan Murray said that the latest figures have found Australia’s population reaching 23.49 million people at the end of 2013/2014, or an extra 365,000 people.
“This is equivalent to a growth rate of 1.6% over the year. This annual growth rate is down from the 1.8% rate which applied at the end of the 2012/13 fiscal year, but is still well above the long term average,” said Murray.
“The natural increase in population (births minus deaths) added 152,173 people in 2013/14. This contribution was 6% lower than in the previous year.”
Net overseas migration slowed in 2013/2014, with 212,695 more people than those departing – about 10% less than 2012/2013.
“Compared with many other developed economies, Australia has been a star performer over the last few years,” he said.
“With shortages of skilled labour evident in many industries and a relatively strong looking economy, Australia has proved to be a very attractive destination for overseas migrants and was equally attractive for Australians who would have otherwise considered opportunities overseas.”
The strongest states for population growth over the year were New South Wales and Victoria.
“Last financial year both these states recorded their strongest annual population growth rates in over twenty years, excluding the period skewed by the GFC,” he explained.
Murray noting that the annual growth for Victoria was 1.9% and for New South Wales it was 1.5%. Western Australia, however, is the star performer with 2.2% population growth. However, this is down from 3.3% last year.
Queensland increased 1.5%, while South Australia grew by 0.9% and Tasmania recorded 0.3% growth. The Northern Territory and ACT saw growth of 1.0% and 1.2% respectively.
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Population growth slows, but property demand high: HIA

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We are all living longer and that fact alone is having a big impact on the housing market as the population grows and ages.
However, it is the baby boomers that right now are shaping many areas of the housing market. As life expectancy among the boomers continues to rise, a more complex housing market is evolving.
There has been a 100% increase in the numbers of people living beyond 55 plus and a 150% increase in the numbers of people aged 75 plus. At the same time as the baby boomers age, their health has improved, and a longer life span is leading to pressures on aged welfare payments and health care costs. There are also longer term pressures building on how superannuation savings are managed and invested and how public pensions are funded.
As a result the traditional idea of retirement and retirement housing has shifted and continues to do so with some very dramatic consequences for the housing market.
Where and how the baby boomers live in retirement looks nothing like the retirement plans and hopes of their parents. The idea of moving to a sleepy coastal town, or traditional retirement village is being replaced with an appetite for lifestyles as diverse as living on a luxury liner (for the lucky few) or the more accessible idea of moving to a lifestyle resort with apartments and villas clustered around a golf course and access to a cinema, resort style pool and other amenities.
A key idea driving retirement living is the desire to stay connected. As people live longer and stay in good health they want to stay connected to family, the kids, the grand kids and lifelong friends, the idea of moving away from all of these connections has no appeal. Those living in retirement, or soon to retire, are no longer heading towards accommodation in clusters, they are aging in place and that means possibly staying longer in the current family home in metro, regional and country locations.
Existing homes are being renovated in greater numbers to accommodate their needs, by for example improving access to bathroom facilities and by reorganising accommodation so that stairs are eliminated.
Of course some people do move house, either trading up or down the price ladder and many new homes now feature a ground floor bedroom and bathroom. There’s also a continued trend towards boomers moving into CBD apartments, or apartments that a very well connected to local facilities. Sydney’s Double Bay and Bondi Junction are just two areas where this trend is evident. It’s all a part of being connected to the community and people's health care is also better managed when they are close to established medical facilities, a point not wasted on federal and state Treasurers.
More Flexibility Requires More Income
Recent federal budgets have started to directly address retirement issues, the retirement age is being increased, yes we are living longer, but we are also working longer by choice and by necessity.
As part of the housing equation income planning is now a central concern, people want to have more control when they retire and this is leading to a greater trend towards semi-retirement, with more lifestyle flexibility. By moving into retirement slowly, people are able to retain the family home longer, or plan their move to say a new apartment project, in an orderly fashion and possibly over a number of years. This is often an appealing solution for those who are asset rich, but cash poor.
If people do not want to sell their homes and move to fund part of their retirement income, staying local looks to be a long-term trend. Staying connected also means more boomers are looking for flexibility in their housing options and moving to semi-retirement may well have the impact of delaying the possible turnover of some existing housing stock. However it appears that it is quality of life that will drive retirement housing options. It is interesting to note that it’s the more highly paid who work longer and those that retire early usually do so not for financial reasons, but for health reasons as their ability to work is diminished.
Somehow that retirement cottage on the beach has lost its appeal, while a CBD apartment gains appeal and boomers weigh up how best to fund their future lifestyle and housing needs.
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How Baby Boomers retirement plans are impacting the housing market

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A huge shift in net interstate migration has taken place since the financial crisis, a major demographic trend which is a game-changer for this property market cycle, particularly in Sydney. Let's take a look in four short parts.
Part 1 - Mining states slowing...but Sydney booming 
Drilling into the most recent round of demographic data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed an interesting fact: net interstate migration from New South Wales has declined to its lowest level on record at just 1,036 in the March 2014 quarter.
Typically there has been a very significant population flow away from NSW, especially expensive Greater Sydney, which is comfortably more than replaced by immigrants from overseas and natural population increase. But as the mining construction boom fades so too does the tide of interstate population shift away from Sydney.
The mining states which have benefited most from net interstate migration historically are now no longer doing so - predominantly the maroon line of Queensland (and how!), the gold line of Western Australia (we use state cricket colours, see?) and the red of South Australia (Redbacks? Ah, you have the hang of it now), in that order.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TqZE7VZ8DeY/VFFcNaz6RgI/AAAAAAAAQ00/_WzKb3KVooI/s1600/NIM.jpg">
Instead an expected rebound in services and construction jobs in Sydney and to a lesser extent Melbourne is seeing a massive boom in the population of those two cities.
Charted below is the annualised rate of population growth by state, which shows New South Wales (+115,000) now threatening to spiral off the top of the chart, with Victoria (+109,000) not too far behind.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-afEmTfIBbSk/VFDtIiTQVCI/AAAAAAAAQzw/ZC_nBRz52Dg/s1600/DEMOG2.jpg">
It never pays to get too aroused by one quarter of data - particularly from ABS releases at the present time! But the population change in the March 2014 quarter showed NSW recording an extraordinary increase of 35,285, potentially implying an unheard of annualised pace of well over 140,000.
In the event, we will not see the state's annual population growth figure scaling such dizzying heights due to the now slowing pace of net overseas migration, with fewer Kiwis and Poms in particular choosing to take the path Down Under at this stage in the cycle. Indeed, most immigrants to Australia now hail from Asia.
Nevertheless, despite the slowing pace of net overseas migration, by the time the June 2014 data rolls around we will probably see New South Wales annual population growth approaching 120,000, which is a huge figure.
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6qzI7bGd7Hs/VFDtI7tCGpI/AAAAAAAAQz0/fNpiDo3qm-s/s1600/DEMOG3.jpg">
Part 2 - Dwelling supply: too hot, too cold...or just right?
There is some some conflicting and some zany market commentary when it comes to the adequacy of dwelling supply in Australia, often involving a preconceived notion ("massive overbuilding" or "chronic undersupply") and the producing of data to support the position.
Sometimes we see analysis of building completions in Australia compared to the existing population, which is an interesting point of comparison, but a clear confusion of stock versus flow.
Much more unusually we see offbeat comparisons of Australian construction versus that seen in certain US states which previously had a cahuna oversupply and now aren't constructing much (relevance?), or on particularly obscure days, comparisons with Japanese construction. 
The slightly boring answer is that there is no chronic undersupply of dwellings in Australia and nor is there massive overbuilding in aggregate, although it is possible to highlights regions and suburbs which represent examples of each.
Property markets are complex and imperfect beasts. If you can analyse and understand data flows it becomes possible to identify specific areas where undersupply will begin to bite, and thus you can comfortably outperform market capital growth averages over time by buying investment property with an element of scarcity value in these locations. 
The data to analyse 
A better starting point is to scrutinise Australian building approvals, dwelling commencements and completions data against the changes in demand in Australia, drawing inferences based upon average household sizes (a little over 2.5 depending on your preferred source) for the regions analysed.
There have been warnings about a potential oversupply of dwellings in Sydney, for example. Travelling around certain parts of town I can see why you might reach that conclusion, but from a macro perspective, you'd be wrong. 
There is something of an oversupply of units looming in a few pockets - in the CBD and inner city, around the airport and inner south, and in a few of the new Urban Activation Precincts (UAPs) around transport hubs, where there will now be fewer height restriction on the building of apartment tower blocks.
Largely bought by offshore investors, these off-the-plan apartments will generally be poor performers and are likely to suffer from falling rents, vacancies, and possibly both.
(As an aside it's often highlighted how most property investor loans written are for established dwellings, but since there are now 9,366,800 dwellings and counting in Australia, and since a high proportion of the new stock is sold offshore, the percentage of domestic investment in established stock will continue to rise. 
Moreover, established properties usually represent better value than most expensive new units and therefore a majority of domestic investors will rationally steer clear of the newly constructed stock in the absence of incentives to do otherwise. In short, we probably do need foreign investors to create supply).
Sure, there are some areas where there are more new flats than willing renters. But ask anyone in the market and they'll tell you that in the lifestyle suburban areas where most people actually want to live, precisely the opposite problem exists - there is a dearth of quality stock and the decent stuff is selling in a matter of days.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Part 3 - New stock has come online 
Think back to the annualised population growth figures discussed previously for New South Wales, which are tracking at about 115,000 over the year to March 2014. In the 12 months to June 2014, the state saw the completion of 19,134 houses...
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9sqF6UvrvTg/VFDtMwvBFQI/AAAAAAAAQ0M/scA_2nrj8wE/s1600/DEMOG6.jpg">
...and only 17,510 completions for unit and apartments.
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pey-sa1PVEE/VFDtNSYhAJI/AAAAAAAAQ0U/ltPQkykWxb8/s1600/DEMOG7.jpg">
That's a grand total of 36,644 completions. Given that the state population in the year to March 2014 increased by 114,509, I don't think we need to panic about massive overbuilding just yet.
Completions have not even been high enough to match the demand from the state population growth let alone address previously inherent supply imbalances in Sydney...and that's before we even begin to account for brownfield site demolitions and stock obsolescence.
In fact, if you drill in more closely to the population and demographics data you will find that population growth in New South Wales regional centres has been far below the national averages in all but a tiny handful of localities. Meanwhile Greater Sydney is set to record population growth somewhere in the vicinity of 90,000 in this calendar year.
Part 4 - Decent approvals &amp; supply in the pipeline
In terms of forthcoming supply, it is true that there is more to come in the pipeline. In the 12 months to June 2014, New South Wales commenced 20,000 houses and 25,000 units. And Greater Sydney apartment approvals are now tracking at a little over 26,000 on a rolling annual basis.
That's a decent enough supply response to rising prices, assuming all approvals make it to completion, which they won't.
However the level of monthly apartment approvals peaked way back in March 2014 and is now rolling over. The major developers, who are nobody's dummies, are aiming to have their Greater Sydney new apartment stock completed and sold by December 2015.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T_iG24vTjOY/VFDtODsprWI/AAAAAAAAQ0c/uz-oy6QHkaY/s1600/DEMOG8.jpg">
Oversupply theory? Doesn't pass the "sniff test".
With the exception of the aforementioned locations, there is no city-wide oversupply of dwellings in Sydney, and nor is there going to be any time soon. 
Inner Melbourne and inner Brisbane are two other areas we can talk about with an apartment oversupply. And, for example, some coal mining towns and regions are likely to experience oversupply too, albeit as result of a collapse in demand rather than overbuilding.
As a Chartered Accountant and sometime auditor, too many years ago now I was trained at accounting college to consider that when people make sweeping yet unsubstantiated claims such as "there is an obscene amount of construction going on in Sydney" then that claim should be weighed up against or made to pass a common sense or "sniff test".
Even if you choose to dismiss vacancy rates as an unreliable indicator, which in Sydney are hovering way below the notional equilibrium position of 3% at just 1.7%, the best "sniff test" for oversupply to my mind is to look for signs of negative rental growth. 
Today apartment rental growth is tracking somewhere between at 3% and 5.3% in Sydney, depending on your data provider of choice.
Over the past 10 years the growth in median rental for detached houses in Sydney has been 80%, and for attached dwellings the equivalent growth in median rental is 77%.
'Nuff said.
You can visit <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) or Pete's <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blog</a>.
His latest book is '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' .
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Migration away from Sydney falls to record low

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The speed of population growth into Australia has been winding down since reaching a recent annual peak in December 2012 when the national population grew by 1.78% over the year.
With overseas migration moderating and a slowdown in the rate of natural increase, the annual rate of population growth across the country has slipped to 1.69% over the year ending March 2014. The more timely overseas arrivals and departures data indicates that net overseas migration to Australia is continuing to slow down, so we should expect the rate of population growth to continue tapering over the near term.
Across the states there is a third component of population growth; interstate migration flows. The trends of migration flows between the states has been changing over the past few years with the mining states demonstrating a sharp slowdown in both overseas migration flows as well as less net migration across the state borders. Conversely, the non-mining states are seeing a pick-up in interstate migration flows as workers ‘bounce’ back from resources sector jobs that are no longer there.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/1-Rolling-annual-change-in-Australias-population.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3882" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/1-Rolling-annual-change-in-Australias-population-580x120.jpg" alt="1 Rolling annual change in Australias population" width="580" height="120"></a>
The following dashboards highlight the interstate migration flows for each state; what are the overall interstate migration trends, where are the migrants coming from and where are they going to?
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-nsw-vic-qld-sa-wa.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3883" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-nsw-vic-qld-sa-wa-580x120.jpg" alt="2 Net qtrly interstate migration nsw vic qld sa wa" width="580" height="120"></a>
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/3-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-tas-nt-act.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3884" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/3-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-tas-nt-act-580x120.jpg" alt="3 Net qtrly interstate migration tas nt act" width="580" height="120"></a>
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/4-Annual-net-interstate-migration-flows.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3885" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/4-Annual-net-interstate-migration-flows-580x166.jpg" alt="4 Annual net interstate migration flows" width="580" height="166"></a>
Across NSW interstate migration remains in negative territory (in fact there hasn’t been a single period over the ABS historical series where net interstate migration has moved into positive territory in NSW). With a net interstate migration figure of -1,036 over the 12 months ending March 2014, this is the smallest net loss of interstate migrants for NSW on record.
The improved interstate migration figures are largely being driven by an improvement in net migration between Queensland where the net rate of interstate migration was at a record low of -4,786 over the year to March 2014. To provide some context, in 2003 the net interstate migration deficit between NSW and Queensland was just under 26,000.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/5-NSW-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3886" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/5-NSW-IM-stats-453x580.jpg" alt="5 NSW IM stats" width="453" height="580"></a>
Victoria is now the national leader for interstate migration, taking the title away from Queensland since the September quarter last year based on annual net migration figures. Net interstate migration into Victoria is currently at a record high with a net 2,468 more residents moving to the state from other regions of Australia.
Net migrants from NSW were the most substantial interstate contributors to Victorian population growth; however the trend of interstate arrivals from the mining states to Victoria is at record levels and trending higher.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/6-VIC-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3887" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/6-VIC-IM-stats-453x580.jpg" alt="6 VIC IM stats" width="453" height="580"></a>
Queensland is no longer attracting the largest number of net interstate migrants, falling to second position after Victoria since the September quarter last year. Over the year to March 2014 the state of Queensland attracted an additional 5,772 net interstate migrants which is only slightly higher than the previous all-time low of 5,384 net interstate migrants recorded over the year ending December 2010.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/7-QLD-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3888" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/7-QLD-IM-stats-450x580.jpg" alt="7 QLD IM stats" width="450" height="580"></a>
Net interstate migration into South Australia hasn’t changed a great deal over recent years with the quarterly rate of net migrants typically bouncing between -1,500 and -500 over the past decade. The largest portion of state residents are lost to Victoria, where over the year ending March 2014 there was a net interstate loss of 1,827 residents to Victoria.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/8-SA-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3889" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/8-SA-IM-stats-448x580.jpg" alt="8 SA IM stats" width="448" height="580"></a>
 
Western Australia still lays claim to the title of ‘fastest growing state’ with an annual population growth rate of 2.5%, there has been a consistent moderation in the rate of growth since a recent annual peak of 3.72% over the year ending September 2012. WA is still attracting a positive net interstate migration rate, however there were only 256 net interstate migrants to WA over the March quarter, down from a recent high of 3,395 over the March quarter of 2012.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/9-WA-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3890" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/9-WA-IM-stats-452x580.jpg" alt="9 WA IM stats" width="452" height="580"></a>
Net interstate migration into Tasmania has remained in negative territory since late 2010, however the trend is showing some constancy and is now approaching a neutral rate of interstate migration. The last time net interstate migration was substantially positive into Tasmania was between 2003 and 2004 when housing markets were booming.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/10-Tas-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3891" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/10-Tas-IM-stats-453x580.jpg" alt="10 Tas IM stats" width="453" height="580"></a>
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Interstate migration to Victoria at record highs

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Currently Australia has a population of some 23,640,000 and we are rapidly heading towards the 24 million mark.
In the most recent population update issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the March quarter 2014 there are some interesting facts and some shifting fortunes for various Australian states. Some of the changes directly reflect the shifting strengths of the associated local real estate market, but there are many other influences the population is having on demand for housing.
Our march towards a population of 24 million is being fuelled by some key facts; our birth-rate is healthy while our death-rate is much lower. According to the ABS a new birth takes place every one minute and 43 seconds, while a death occurs every three minutes and 31 seconds. So births are well ahead. There is one new international migration into Australia every two minutes and five seconds, and we have the net result adding one new person to the local population every one minute and 17 seconds.  Our population growth rate is at around 1.8% which is very high by international standards; therefore we lead the OECD ranks.
It’s little wonder that we see so many new baby wear shops in our local shopping centres, and also continued strong demand for housing.
International Migration
While our natural rate of population growth is impressive, it only accounts for 40% of overall growth, with 60% coming from international migration to Australia. The impact is also apparent in NSW and Victoria, the two states currently leading in population gains.
The March Quarter ABS figures show that in NSW the population increased by 114,500 with 67% of that coming from net overseas migration. In Victoria the population grew by 108,800 with migration making a 57% contribution and we know that these two states also have the most demand for housing and the most robust prices. Clearly the arrival of one new international migrant almost every two minutes is having a major impact on growth and creates more immediate demand for housing than the numbers of new born babies.
Interstate Migration Shows Major Shifts
While WA still leads in the rate of growth at 2.5%, that is well down from the rate of 3.5% just 12 months ago, as momentum is shifting towards the big states like NSW and with its current population at 7,500,600 it’s easy to see how important that state and Victoria and their local economies are as we move out of the mining boom. The ABS figures go further and show how population trends have changed over the last five years.
In 2009 some 12,300 residents left NSW to move to Queensland, in 2014 that figure had fallen to 4,800.  That’s a very big shift. More people are arriving and staying in NSW where housing supply is at its most critical. At the same time growth has slowed in Queensland and WA. In fact NSW has recorded its lowest interstate migration of population in 30 years and Victoria has had its highest gains on interstate migration to that state on record. Queensland has seen its lowest rate of gain, dropping 65% in five years.
We are seeing some changes that are reversing decade-long trends and the different population pressures in each state are reflected in local demand for housing. New migrants and expanded families need homes and both are having a major impact on our local real estate markets and possibly compounding the problems of undersupply.
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Population growth compounding our undersupply problems

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Master planned communities will be South East Queensland's retirement hot spots in 2031, taking over from sea change destinations that are home to the largest numbers of older Australians now, Urban Economics predicts.
Bribie Island had South East Queensland's largest population of people aged over 65 in 2011, according to Urban Economics analysis of census data. The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast were also popular retirement destinations.
"We are going to continue to see those areas as important but going into 2021, tree change areas pick up in importance, then to 2031, growth areas such as Greenbank and Ripley – the master planned communities – become important," Urban Economics managing director Kerrianne Bonwick-Meulman said.
The researcher forecast that in 2021 Bribie Island would continue to be home to South East Queensland's largest population of retirees with an estimated 4246 people aged 65 to 74; 3695 people aged 75 to 84 years; and 1454 people aged over 85.
But by 2031, Ripley near Ipswich would take over with a projected population of 7947 people aged 65 to 74; 5807 people aged 75 to 84; and 2765 people aged 85 plus.
Bonwick-Meulman said the shift was related to land availability.
Families moving to master planned areas now would be approaching their early, active retirement years in 2031 and would want to remain in their neighbourhoods, she said.
The trend meant there was a need to ensure master planned communities could cater to the needs of older people by incorporating health care facilities and smaller houses aimed at retirees downsizing their homes for example.
"It's about providing choice and diversity of housing stock that can best meet their needs," Bonwick-Meulman said.
Developments completed in the 1970s where most residents are now approaching retirement often lack the facilities that older people need to remain in the community.
Bonwick-Meulman said there was an opportunity for South East Queensland's master planned communities currently in the development stages, such as Ripley, Springfield and Greenbank, to ensure people who are buying into those areas now know that there will be options for them when they are older.
South East Queensland suburbs with the highest population of 65-74 year olds
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2011</td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2021</td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2031</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>3,290</td>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>4,246</td>
<td>Ripley</td>
<td>7,947</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>2,530</td>
<td>Noosa Hinterland</td>
<td>3,477</td>
<td>Greenbank</td>
<td>5,298</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Noosa Hinterland</td>
<td>2,323</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>3,311</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>4,250</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Beachmere - Sandstone Pt</td>
<td>2,131</td>
<td>Robina</td>
<td>3,068</td>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>4,232</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Maroochydore - Kuluin</td>
<td>2,066</td>
<td>Maroochydoore - Kuluin</td>
<td>2,797</td>
<td>Noosa Hinterland</td>
<td>4,045</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
South East Queensland suburbs with the highest population of 75-84 year olds 
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2011 </td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2021 </td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2031 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>2,446</td>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>3,695</td>
<td>Ripley</td>
<td>5,807</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>1,564</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>2,118</td>
<td>Greenbank</td>
<td>4,456</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Maroochydore - Kuluin</td>
<td>1,381</td>
<td>Beachmere - Sandstone Pt</td>
<td>2,052</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>3,610</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Beachmere - Sandstone Pt</td>
<td>1,344</td>
<td>Noosa Hinterland</td>
<td>1,923</td>
<td>Caloundra - West</td>
<td>3,139</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Caloundra - West</td>
<td>1,294</td>
<td>Maroochydore - Kuluin</td>
<td>1,839</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>2,975</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
South East Queensland suburbs with the highest population of 80+ year olds 
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2011 </td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2021 </td>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="2">2031 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
<td>Area</td>
<td>#</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>964</td>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>1,454</td>
<td>Ripley</td>
<td>2,765</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nambour</td>
<td>644</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>1,151</td>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>2,237</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bribie Island</td>
<td>626</td>
<td>Maroochydore - Kuluin</td>
<td>969</td>
<td>Caloundra - West</td>
<td>1,999</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Caloundra - West</td>
<td>583</td>
<td>Caloundra - West</td>
<td>891</td>
<td>Southport</td>
<td>1,606</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Maroochydore - Kuluin</td>
<td>581</td>
<td>Cleveland</td>
<td>872</td>
<td>Robina</td>
<td>1,403</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Retirees to favour master planned communities by 2031: Urban Economics

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One does not need to be Albert Einstein to see that for decades and decades the Australian real estate industry has been running blind – so it's very interesting to observe that now a cavalcade of seeing eye-dogs have been brought in to add some vision and clarity.
Having said that, there is plenty of work to do, and the Federal and State Governments will have to do plenty of the heavy lifting for a change. Again, the spotlight keeps shining away from the main accelerants that have seen investors not just entering the market but dominating it, coupled with overseas investors lunging at every off-the-plan sale that hits the market.
Australia simply does not have enough property to meet demand given our population keeps increasing at a growth rate of 1.7%. In the year to March 2014 the Australian population increased by 388,400 to reach 23.4 million.
Instead of continually slugging the taxpayers, overseas investors should be hit with a surcharge and the investors who prefer to keep their properties vacant should be hit with a Vacancy Tax.
The Senate Inquiry into overseas investors has shown glaring holes in how the Foreign Investment Review Board operates (or attempts to) with a staff of under 10 people. Again, this highlights that Australia does not even have a Housing Minister – so who then is taking responsibility and managing this?
Yes – it's reasonable to suggest that Australia is fast becoming a country of landlords and renters, although one needs to ask, had the Rudd Government implemented the recommendations from the Henry Tax Review, how would the Australian property landscape look today? We will never know – however, isn't it time we had this conversation again?
We have the David Murray Financial System Inquiry deadline now just over two months away and there is much speculation about how much they will recommend the banks keep in their piggy banks. How much capital should the banks hold in the event of a property market downturn to avoid the domino effect?
This week the worst kept secret was all but confirmed, where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority have almost certainly agreed to introduce macro-prudential policies in an attempt to ease property prices.
It's a start. However; the measures will hardly put a dent in prices.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
To really have a closer examination; look no further than the report filed last year by Saul Eslake: 50 Years of Housing Policy Failure.
In a nutshell, he writes that cynical politics had kept policies in place that made it harder for people to buy their first home.
"While political parties and governments profess to care about first home buyers, the reality is that in a typical year fewer than 100,000 people succeed in attaining home ownership for the first time; whereas there are some 5.8 million households (and over eight million people) who already own at least one property."
This week RP Data revealed that the number of properties listed for sale in all capital cities, excluding Perth, is 11.6% lower than in September 2013. So introducing macro-prudential policies will hardly affect investors who are borrowing against their existing property portfolios.
<img src="/images/2014/09/30/24-09-2014-9-34-41-AM.jpg" alt="">
Property investors have entered the market with "eyes-wide-open" given that just a few years ago they witnessed firsthand what happens to property prices when we inherited the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) – this is a long term investment. Many are taking a safer punt on property and have walked away from the share market (which has had a shocking run of late) to lock and load into bricks and mortar.
There will be major changes ahead for Australia's tax system where many of the changes will be made to the property taxation benefits that investors are currently taking full advantage of. It's a win-win for the property investors given with all new taxes they are generally retrospective so the investors will be working from a 100 base – history shows this very clearly.
 <img src="/images/2014/09/30/24-09-2014-1-30-26-PM.jpg" alt="">
On the assumption that eventually the GST will be increased to 15%. construction will slow down further, which is exactly what happened in Australia previously following the introduction of the GST.
The developers wear the GST so that it then comes off their respective bottom lines by significantly reducing their profit margins – GST on construction has been a dismal failure which clearly explains why construction is in decline.
So there is a lot of method to the present investor madness – where for those looking at this from a different perspective the vast majority are on a win-win property formula.
No doubt they will be smiling even more when the read a recent article in The Economist, Birth Right – Where to be born in 2013, where Australia was ranked second from the top.
 
 
 
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

A broken system: investors are laughing all the way

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Six years ago McCrindle Research (one of Australia's leading research houses) predicted that by 2020 the Australian population would reach 24 million. At the time - 2008 - our population was 21.4 million.
Based on the Australian Bureau of growth statistics (2013), we're growing by:
<ul>
<li>one birth every one minute and 42 seconds,</li>
<li>one death every three minutes and 34 seconds,</li>
<li>a net gain of one international migration every two minutes and 14 seconds, leading to</li>
<li>an overall total population increase of one person every one minute and 20 seconds.</li>
</ul>
As I write this article in August 2014 Australia's population sits at 23.5 million (<a href="https://abs.gov/" target="_blank">abs.gov</a>). If my calculations are correct, we're growing by 395,188 people every year. By New Years Eve in 2020, we'll add another 2.371 million people to our population. Last time I checked ... 23.5 million plus 2.3 million equals 25.8 million.
We'll be 10% bigger at almost 26 million people. By 2020 we won't just reach 24 million - we'll have enough new blood to add another Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin, Canberra, Townsville and Cairns into the mix!
It's just "numbers" you say, but take note - these "numbers" will have a massive effect on the Australian economy and the thousands of property markets across Australia.
As the federal government has recently signalled - adding salt to the wound will be our ageing population; lots of significantly older adults.
Around 200,000 people reached 65 years of age in 2011. Between January 2012 and December 2020 another 5.4 million will join them. That little fact may not mean much today - but with Baby Boomers exiting the workforce in large numbers, we're staring down the barrel of a lot more people and a lot less tax payers.
A bit more research (another McCrindle report) revealed that in 2012 the median age was 38. They also predict that in 2050 our median age will be 43. We're growing older and living longer.
The double-edged sword? We're also losing our kids to the 'global village' - what we read about at university back in the 60s and 70s, they now live in. Our younger generations grow up, study, possibly received government funding or HECS support to gain their qualifications and leave our shores in increasing numbers to work in others countries.
In 2012, a reported 257,258 Australians left the 'lucky country' permanently - a quarter of a million Aussies said goodbye!
When I sat my HSC 42 years ago we didn't have pocket calculators - they weren't available in Australia. "How the times they are a changing"
I know at least some of these kids found that international job on their mobile device, accepted the offer, negotiated their remuneration package and booked their flights the same way. Leaving without a second thought.
The undeniable challenge we must now address is that we have a mass exit at the top of the age scale, a significant one in the lower age bracket - and the people in the middle are going to suffer. Your retirement age has already been increased to 70 years of age.
What's next then?
This is what's next, and it's a real eye opener. In 2013, only four percent of Aussies over the age of 65 years were self-funded retirees.
What the? 96% of people over the age of 65 were either reliant on a tax-payer funded pension, still working, or deceased. And as I said earlier, with the Boomers exiting the workforce in large numbers, we're staring down the barrel of a lot less tax payers to fund those pensions.
If people in the middle age bracket (38-55 years of age) don't take control of their financial futures right now, they really won't have much to look forward to in retirement.
If you're in that middle group and you're 'stuck'; unsure of how to shape your financial future so you can see the retirement you want and deserve, then you need to invest in your financial education now.
By developing your financial education, you'll create the ability to identify opportunities to help maximise your income and asset potential, and in return create a passive income in retirement.
Kevin Lee is the property investment expert and buyer's agent at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Smart Property Adviser</a>.
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The demographic storm about to hit Australia

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A<a href="/expert-insights/investing/australias-top-25-most-expensive-suburbs-rp-data"> recent RP Data report</a> stated the number of suburbs across Australia with a median price of at least $1 million has increased by more than 33% in 12 months - and it looked as though they were suggesting this is a good thing.
Make no mistake - this revelation of 417 suburbs should sound warning bells for the 'average Australian'. Our state and federal governments rabbit on about the need for affordable housing - since when did house prices of $1 million fit that bill?
As you might expect, many of the suburbs that made the list were in the major capitals - Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. The combined population of these three cities is approx 11 million, or 46% of Australia's total.
So let's do the math for a 35 year old working Sydney couple with one child. They're buying a home in a Sydney suburb for that median price of $1 million and they don't want to pay lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).
Suppose they met and fell in love eight years ago and started saving for their 'average home' pretty soon after. Our 'model couple' married, had a baby and have been super diligent too - saving $250,000 i n that time. That's an average of $31,000 a year for eight years.
Nice one! Who do you know that can do that? Not many? Mmmm - thought so.
Let's stop here for a minute: what buying a home for $1 million plus is doing is sucking the life out of people who are in the prime of their life, just so they can buy an average home in one of those 417 suburbs.
Out of that $250,000 deposit, they need to allow:
<ul>
<li>A little over $40,800 for stamp duty + associated fees in Sydney</li>
<li>Around $3200 for their legals and conveyancing</li>
<li>And $500 or so for their bank fees</li>
</ul>
By the time they add removal costs and a few other incidentals, they've just burned $50,000. Leaving this lovely couple $200,000 to put towards the purchase: their deposit. This means that they need an $800,000 mortgage. No problem, book that appointment with your friendly bank manager or mortgage adviser.
Oh dear ... do they qualify for an $800,000 loan? A quick calculation suggests that with the current 'super low interest rates' on offer, our couple with one child, two cars and a car loan only need to earn a combined $130,000 a year to be approved for this loan.
For this exercise I'll assume a split of: $85,000 for the breadwinner and $45,000 for the person who most carries household and child responsibilities. These two incomes deliver $64,000 and $38,250 after tax. A quick monthly calculation tells the real story: they have $5,324 &amp; $3,189 net monthly income after tax.
I t's time to celebrate - your loan is approved!
But now it's crunch time people! At just 4.69% (the super low rate currently on offer) the $800,000 loan to purchase that average home will cost our average family $4,145 per month.
That's monthly until they reach 65 years of age. $4,145 a month for the rest of their working lives! Almost 49% of their combined net income goes towards making their minimum loan repayments. And if our friends can't pay it off faster, they will have paid more than $1,000,000 in bank interest during t hat time.
What will happen though when their interest rate increases to just 6.6%? That monthly repayment jumps by a grand to $5,157 - ouch. I think you can work the rest of this math exercise out?
So our average couple bought an average home in one of 417 average suburbs with an above average deposit and above average sized mortgage...
And pretty much gave up their opportunity to become an average family of two adults and two kids.
Listen up people. Unless he's Walter White they can't ever afford to have baby number two.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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The mysterious world of finance can be honed down to just three questions:
<ol>
<li>Can you pay back the loan?</li>
<li>Will you pay back the loan?</li>
<li>If it goes pear shaped, what can we sell?</li>
</ol>
If you fail to meet any one of the three criteria questions you will not be approved for finance.
Here's what hurts the feelings of so many people: the primary reason a couple wants to purchase one of these million dollar homes is to keep up appearances - I see it all the time.
Shelling out almost half your net income each month for a roof over your head is not the smartest move for most couples. Lose your job, become ill or have an accident that stops you from working and you're in trouble. This kind of financial stress kills even the strongest relationships.
People who need to keep up appearances aren't thinking about their financial future at all. They're all about 'I want it and I want it now'. Dangerous ground indeed - especially when interest rates increase in 2015 and beyond.
Many a credit rating (CRAA File) has been severely damaged over the years by this scenario and the resultant relationship breakdown.
It's articles like that RP Data Report that feed ego driven decisions and encourage people to believe that it's a 'fantastic' idea to purchase these types of properties.
Because we all know the mantra: "Property values always double every seven to 10 years."
Yeah right! Pigs might fly too.
It kills me to know that so many people fall into the trap of buying the wrong type of property, when the investors I'm working with are buying their first, second and third investments just weeks after getting started.
It's time for a reality check.
Here's a sample of the ‘no go’ suburbs from the RP Data list:
 <img src="/images/2014/08/21/rp-data-aug-21-two.png">
Kevin Lee is the property investment expert and buyer's agent at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Smart Property Adviser</a>.
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