Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Demographics

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia as a nation has never been richer. But it is now also more unequal than at any time since the early 1980s. This inequality takes many forms, not least between suburbs and neighbourhoods. And our research suggests the few celebrated examples of famous Australians who emerged from disadvantaged neighbourhoods are the exceptions to the rule for children who grow up in them.
The Dropping Off The Edge research program, started by the late Professor Tony Vinson in the early 2000s, identifies the most disadvantaged suburbs and local government areas in each state and territory. This shows that as few as 3% of communities bear a disproportional burden of disadvantage. They are characterised by low rates of education and employment, and high rates of disability, criminal convictions and poverty.
Children growing up in these disadvantaged communities enjoy few opportunities for upwards social mobility when compared with peers in more affluent suburbs. And, significantly, the children of low-income families in better-off suburbs have higher aspirations and know what they need to do to achieve those.
Our recent research with young people in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide shows children in disadvantaged communities are not only more likely to live in poverty, but are also less likely to have access to sports clubs, libraries and other recreational and arts facilities, which those in more affluent suburbs appear to take for granted. Their schools are also less likely to offer extracurricular activities that enable young people to engage with others who live in different areas and have different life experiences.
Most young people see these activities as fun and a good way to connect with other young people. However, the implications for young people’s life chances of missing out on these activities stretch far beyond recreation.
‘Soft skills’ and social mobility
As Nobel Prize-winning economist James Heckman states: "Conscientiousness, perseverance, sociability and curiosity matter."
While these “soft skills” can be learned in the home and in the classroom, they are reinforced and embedded in structured out-of-school activities. Parents who recognise the long-term benefits of these activities often invest heavily in their children’s participation in them.
For young people in low-income families, access to these activities is made difficult by not being able to afford registration fees, uniforms and other equipment, or even the petrol for transport to the activities. For young people in low-income families living in disadvantaged suburbs, these challenges are multiplied.
Affluent suburbs tend to have good opportunity structures – a combination of physical facilities, institutional support and social networks that provide access to education, jobs and other valued opportunities. Poor suburbs often lack these opportunity structures.
While poor suburbs often abut more affluent suburbs with good opportunity structures, our research suggests young people in the disadvantaged suburbs do not often feel welcome there. As one girl told us when asked if she mixed with young people in the better-off neighbouring suburbs: "No, but if I did, I know it would be my fault."
Her worry is that if her interactions with better-off counterparts end in a conflict, she will be accused of something.
Young people in better-off suburbs, on the other hand, regarded their less well-off neighbours as in need of remediation. When one young man was asked if he went to the youth club in the neighbouring disadvantaged suburb where they offered a range of short workshops (for example; hip hop or graffiti skills), he replied: "Oh there, no! That’s for troubled kids."
These comments capture the social exclusion that keeps young people living in disadvantaged suburbs from connecting with young people in more affluent suburbs, or using facilities near them.
Neighbourhood overcomes lack of money
Not all poor kids live in poor suburbs. We talked with several young people living in low-income families in affluent suburbs who did take part in a range of recreational activities. Their parents struggled to pay registration fees, buy the right equipment and have petrol to take them to activities, but they were able to cobble together arrangements. Often the support of other parents helped with their children’s participation.
The contrast in outlook and aspirations between these young people and those living in the disadvantaged suburbs was notable. Most of the young people in the disadvantaged suburbs who we spoke with had low aspirations for their future careers. But most young people from low-income families in the more affluent suburbs aspired to university and knew what they needed to do to get there.
These differences in opportunities and aspirations underline how life chances are connected to young people’s community contexts as well as their individual and family situations. Young people’s perceptions of these contexts, the people they meet in their out-of-school lives and how they understand the possibilities of their own futures all have impacts on their capacity to take up opportunities.
In order to have equal access to opportunities that improve life chances, young people in the most disadvantaged suburbs need to have access to and feel welcome in the same opportunity structures that are available to more advantaged young people. This demands investment in recreational facilities and a focus on a culture of inclusion in these facilities. Redressing this problem also requires policies that reduce inequalities more broadly, so that progressively fewer suburbs can be defined as “dropping off the edge”.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102640/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Gerry Redmond, Associate Professor, College of Business, government &amp; Law, Flinders University
Jennifer Skattebol, Senior Research Fellow, Social Policy Research Centre, UNSW
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-australians-prospects-still-come-down-to-where-they-grow-up-102640" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Young Australians’ prospects still come down to where they grow up

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia is, apparently, in the midst of a population “crisis” – just this month, we passed the milestone of 25 million people. The nature of the crisis depends on the day and who you ask. Size and growth have become an increasing public preoccupation, particularly as immigration has held firm over the last 12 years as the major contributor to population growth.
Australia’s workforce is shrinking due to population ageing. This puts more pressure on young people to contribute enough personal income tax to fund the Australia we’ve become accustomed to. Immigration is one way to ensure Australia has the labour force it needs to offset the financial challenges of an ageing population.
But the population and population growth is unequal across Australia. The Turnbull government has signalled it will introduce a population policy (of sorts) by the end of the year. This will reportedly focus on settlement of immigrants in regions outside major cities.
The problem is that many people are conflicted about whether the population should continue to grow at all. A population policy offers a way for the country to be prepared and respond to the current and future needs of Australians. So, what would a good population policy look like?
Well-being, not control
The difficulties of the breadth of population-related matters in policy can be overcome, or at least minimised, by having a minister or agency with oversight over the progress of the population framework. The framework, which would include measurable indicators, would report and monitor success towards population-related well-being. This could provide an opportunity for the public to be involved and remain informed.
Population policies are usually focused on the components of population change: births, deaths and migration. Many people hold the mis-perception population policies are about control, and this isn’t surprising given the restrictive population policies in China.
But contemporary population policies, for countries like Australia, are less about controlling numbers and more about ensuring population well-being. The core tenet of a population policy for Australia should be about the population’s quality of life, now and into the future.
Health and education are central to quality of life. Babies born today or in the future should receive sufficient government investment to have a good start at life, particularly with respect to health and education. This means adequate housing and welfare support for families and children, quality equitable education and accessible and affordable health-care.
Gender inequality – both at home and in the workplace – are important elements to the population policy puzzle. Childcare and family support payments are crucial to population well-being, particularly among working parents.
A contemporary population policy for Australia should also include considerations of the use of land for agriculture, mining, water consumption and sources, and the degradation of natural parklands. Mandated environmental behaviours are overdue, and crucial to food and climate security.
Not the size that matters
Focus on population growth rates and size belies the nuances of the population context. It’s not size or growth that matters, but the characteristics and distribution of the population.
Strategies that seek to attract and retain populations outside the city limits will take the pressure off cities with the highest growth – such as Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. And these strategies shouldn’t just consider immigrants are beneficiaries of settlement incentives — Australian locals could participate in such a scheme.
Essential services, such as schools and hospitals, are based around populations. That is, hospitals are built where there is already enough demand. Yet adequate infrastructure must already be present for viable communities in regional areas to attract people to move there.
A settlement strategy could also incorporate investigations and investments in the way Australian towns and associated infrastructure can best support communities. This can include such things as employment opportunities, appropriate housing, transport and telecommunications.
Nhill, a town in the Wimmera region of western Victoria, embarked on a strategic resettlement program for a group of Karen refugees from Myanmar in 2010. A report by Deloitte Access Economics showed an estimated increase of more than A$40 million in Gross Regional Product over five years as a result of this strategy. This serves as a good example for how community and industry can work together to attract people to help bolster local business.
A policy is long overdue
Population ageing means we need to take action now to guarantee Australia’s future social and demographic sustainability.
Australia is long overdue for a sensible strategy for the future. Australia doesn’t need an immigration plebiscite (or even consensus) or another population inquiry to advance a population policy. We need evidence based decision-making which will ensure sustainability and quality of life into the future.
Public consultation and government-commissioned quality research to inform the future needs of the migration program will ensure the parameters of population policy are right for Australia.

A population policy for Australia should provide a blueprint for the future; a framework for what the nation aspires to be, and achievable goals to get there.
Liz Allen, Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-a-population-policy-for-australia-could-look-like-101458" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Here’s what a population policy for Australia could look like: Liz Allen

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia’s population is set to reach 25 million in the coming weeks. This is much earlier than expected. Eighteen years ago, projections estimated Australia’s population wouldn’t get to 25 million until 2041.
Western Australian Liberal Senator Dean Smith last week proposed a moratorium on immigration to give Australia some time to “breathe” and take stock. Claiming concerns over planning and infrastructure failing to meet population needs, Smith signalled Australia was unprepared, having relied on inaccurate population projections.
Immigration is often targeted when population levels seem out of control. But will a moratorium give Australia the supposed breathing space it needs?
Migration impacts
Concerns about immigration and a perceived population crisis have crossed over the spectrum of Australian politics. One Nation’s Pauline Hanson has called for a plebiscite on immigration, while Labor leader Bill Shorten has raised concerns about the number of temporary migrants in Australia.
Immigration Minister Peter Dutton has said a cut to immigration numbers would have economic benefits, contradicting Treasurer Scott Morrison. And Smith’s idea to halt immigration to allow the nation’s infrastructure time to catch up with population demand is shared by prominent public figures, including Bob Carr and Dick Smith.
Australia’s population is ageing, which has potential adverse consequences for the future as proportionally more people exit the workforce, increasing reliance on a shrinking income taxpayer base. Immigration has the potential to offset these consequences of population ageing by contributing to the workforce and to government funds for essential services. Migrants also contribute to Australia’s future population by having children.
The latest available research suggests immigration levels at “about 160,000 and 210,000 seem to have the ‘best’ impact by 2050 on ageing of the population and the rate of growth of GDP per capita”.
Current ABS projections provide an opportunity to examine what Australia’s demographic composition could look like if net overseas migration was zero, 200,000 (low), 240,000 (middle) or 280,000 (high) per year.
Based on 2011 census data, and medium-range assumptions for fertility and life expectancy, the 2013 (medium range) projections are tracking well with current estimates. These projections provide an indication of the impact of migration, measured as net overseas migration. Net overseas migration reflects the balance of incoming and outgoing movements and includes both permanent and temporary migration.
The four ABS scenarios show varying population numbers over the medium to long term. The higher the net overseas migration level, the bigger the population over the projected years. Interestingly, though, while zero net overseas migration would result in a reduction in population by the year 2070, the population would still continue to grow in the medium term due to natural increase (births minus deaths).
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Population composition is an important indicator to consider, rather than size alone. Age distribution is essential to understanding the fiscal opportunities and challenges a population faces.
Comparing the four net overseas migration scenarios illustrates the important contribution migration makes to Australia. The so-called dependency burden – the ratio of the number of children (0-14 years old) and older people (65 years or over) to the working-age population (15-64 years old) – is higher for zero and low net migration levels.
The current rate of net migration provides the middle ground in balancing population age structure and growth.
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Population projections
Planners need to know expected population size and growth to ensure adequate services and provisions. The ABS has produced projections for national and sub-national populations since 1950.
Population inquiries throughout Australia’s history have consistently called on such statistics to enable the country’s responsiveness and preparedness to accommodate numbers. Australia hasn’t set any population targets, mainly to avoid coercive population measures (such as mandating birth rates) and to allow flexibility in government policy, particularly around immigration intake.
Estimating population size and growth into the future is about what might be (projection) and not what will be (forecast). So population projections are not predictions; they’re calculations of potential future populations based on assumptions about possible births, deaths and migration.
The “best-before-date” for population projections is considered to be around 5-10 years from the initial base year of calculation. This is why projections should be regularly updated based on best available population data (the census and vital statistics) to ensure assumptions reflect births, deaths and migration trends.
Australia is one part of the global community. Cutting immigration to Australia will impact the demographic composition of the country, with consequences for the working-age population and income tax base.
Any changes to the migration program should be considered alongside evidence. Available evidence shows Australia’s current migration program intake (190,000) is about right for Australia.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100030/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Australia doesn’t need a moratorium. What we need is a respectful, open and evidence-based population discussion.
Liz Allen, Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/migration-helps-balance-our-ageing-population-we-dont-need-a-moratorium-100030" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Migration helps balance our ageing population – we don't need a moratorium

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Australia is about to experience a ‘silver tsunami’ with the population aged over 65 growing at a rate never seen before, says the Property Council.
However, the booming demographic risks fewer and poorer housing options unless our state and territory governments do a better job of planning for housing for older Australians, including retirement villages.
The Retirement Living Planning Report Card, published by Urbis and commissioned by the Property Council of Australia, assesses states and territories on their performance in planning for seniors housing, with South Australia ranked first overall.
The Report Card includes four key recommendations for reform of planning to deliver better outcomes for the housing needs of older Australians:
<ul>
<li>Increase land availability</li>
<li>Support more commercially viable developments</li>
<li>Improve alignment with market needs</li>
<li>Elevate retirement living to state importance in planning schemes.</li>
</ul>
Ben Myers, executive director of retirement living at the Property Council, says with more than 3.7 million Australians aged 65 and over, it’s vital that age appropriate housing options exist in all parts of our major cities to meet increased demand.
“The Retirement Living Planning Report Card shows that our states, together with local governments, can provide a more strategic role in ensuring there is land available for forms of seniors housing, like retirement villages and other independent living communities,” Myers says.
“Issues such as zoning and overly restrictive height controls can inhibit the redevelopment potential of existing communities to ensure the expectations of Australian retirees are met.
“Without changes to planning policy and improved awareness at council level, seniors may find their choices limited, and be more likely to be stuck in homes that reduce their ability to stay independent and healthy.
“Retirees would benefit greatly from specific seniors housing policies and targets, to promote appropriate development, to ensure there are options available for people aged 65 and over.”
Kylie Newcombe, associate director at Urbis and author of the report card, says that when it comes to scoring planning systems, the scores are low overall with no single state standing out as an exemplar.
“We need to switch the mindset from planning as a barrier, to planning as an enabler," she says.
“Common hurdles to developing seniors housing are the ongoing competition for land, historic zoning and height restrictions, and a general lack of understanding of the market’s needs by authorities.
“Ideally, there would be a more flexible approach that is tailored to what seniors need and want,” Newcombe says.
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Silver tsunami coming as population aged over 65 soars: Property Council

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The ABS reported that Sydney's population increased by more than +100,000 in FY2017 for the first time ever, in doing so rising to an estimated 5.1 million.
More than 70% of Australia's population growth was accounted for by Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane.
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SQupA_3mA1E/Wt62xR9kgCI/AAAAAAAApk0/KhmUFtsU3V0CfYio-r_eh_39R-jtWuhyQCLcBGAs/s1600/B1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SQupA_3mA1E/Wt62xR9kgCI/AAAAAAAApk0/KhmUFtsU3V0CfYio-r_eh_39R-jtWuhyQCLcBGAs/s640/B1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1466"></a>
Sydney's population growth climbed dramatically to +101,600 (+2%), while Melbourne remained extremely strong at +125,400 (+2.7%).
Melbourne's population has increased by well over ¼ million in only two financial years to hit 4.9 million. 
Population growth in Brisbane also picked up strongly to +48,000 or +2%, driven partly by interstate migration. 
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DXJ2awfmAbU/Wt62xfVHlfI/AAAAAAAApk4/BJCtef8snk8YNfg72FzYspUIhts028TJgCLcBGAs/s1600/B2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DXJ2awfmAbU/Wt62xfVHlfI/AAAAAAAApk4/BJCtef8snk8YNfg72FzYspUIhts028TJgCLcBGAs/s640/B2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1417"></a>
Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, and Geelong recorded some fair population growth in absolute terms, and the ACT also increased by an estimated +6,833 persons. 
But generally speaking population growth was considerably weaker around regional Australia.
Darwin (+696), Adelaide (+9,648), and Perth (+21,094) also recorded population growth rates of 1% or less. 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Sydney's population growth up 2%: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVER
Life has changed significantly for young Australians over the last 40 years. Millennials now delay marriage and childbirth, increase their years of study and have much greater rates of part-time work.
As a result, millennials might be feeling a little hard done by, but Australians aged from 25 to 34 have actually enjoyed increases in their incomes compared to the population average. They have also done better than people the same age in other countries.
These are some of the findings of a report from the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia: How unequal? Insights on inequality. It questions whether young people today are likely to do as well economically as previous generations.
Early millennials, born between 1981 and 1985, experienced household income growth 27% higher than the Australian average up to 2010, while households with a head aged 70 to 74 enjoyed growth only 2% higher than the national average.
Although incomes might be higher, the picture of household wealth is different. The wealth of older Australians has increased much more rapidly than that of younger generations, due to both increasing superannuation wealth and increasing property wealth.
Incomes are better for Gen Y in Australia
Work by the Luxembourg Income Study found that in the United Kingdom, households with a head aged 25 to 29 years saw income growth 2% less than the overall national average in the three decades up to 2010. They also found households with a head aged 65 years and over enjoyed income growth more than 60% higher than average.
In brief, in the UK older households became much better-off and younger households became slightly worse off than the population as a whole. Similarly young Americans experienced income growth 9% less than the national average, those in Spain 12% less and in Italy 19% less. In all these and other countries, older households have done better than the national average, although none as well as in the UK.
In contrast, younger Australians did better than the national average in income terms, and better than older Australians.
ABS data show that in 2016, Generation Y Australians had higher incomes between the ages of 25 to 34 than the preceding two generations – about 18% higher than those born a decade earlier. However, the real increase appears to have slowed compared to the previous decade, that cohort had incomes 65% higher than those a decade earlier (due to the mining boom).
Older Australians, born between 1941 and 1950 (including the first “baby boomers”), show an increase in average incomes between 1995-96 and 2005-06, and then a decline as they enter retirement. Middle baby boomers, born between 1951 and 1960, show a marked increase in real incomes between the age of 35-44 years and 45 to 54 years (from A$1,370 per week to A$2,200 per week). But they only experienced a very small increase in the next decade, because some of them retired before the age of 65.
\Baby boomers born between 1961 and 1970 show substantially higher incomes than those born a decade earlier – more than 20% higher in real terms at the age of 45 to 54 years. Generation X born between 1971 and 1980 show large increases in real incomes – nearly 45% - across the last decade and are about 34% better off than the preceding cohort were at the same age.
What has happened to wealth
Households with people under 35 years of age were actually slightly worse off in wealth terms in 2015-16, than a decade earlier, with their net worth falling by around 8%, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data. But for those aged 65 and over, there were increases closer to 40% in real net worth.
The value of owner-occupied housing fell for Australia’s youngest age group, but older households enjoyed large increases in the value of their homes and large increases in the value of other property they own.
Overall, all age groups saw real increases in the value of their total assets, including the youngest age group. This means that falls in wealth are due to an increase in their debts.
ABS data also shows that at all ages there has been a fall in the share of outright home owners, and also in the share of the youngest age group with a mortgage. For younger age groups an increasing share are private renters. This was a significant increase from 43 to 53% for those aged 25 to 34 years and from 26 to 31% for those aged 35 to 44 years.
For those 65 years and over, there has been little change - around 85% of households aged 65 years and over were owners or purchasers in both 2005-06 and 2015-16.
Younger households have seen both declining rates of home purchasing and higher overall indebtedness. Rental costs have also increased faster than the costs of home ownership, and this may have increased the barriers that younger generations face in establishing themselves in home ownership.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94501/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">But when it comes to incomes, millennials in Australia have continued to progress.
Peter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-millennials-incomes-have-grown-more-than-baby-boomers-and-millennials-in-other-countries-94501">original article</a>.
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Australian millennials' incomes have grown well compared to other countries: Peter Whiteford

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GUEST OBSERVER
Two social trends that pose imminent challenges – and require policy responses – to sustainable futures in our cities are the rise of single-person households and homelessness.
One in four Australians live alone, either voluntarily or circumstantially. The ageing population is one factor. The rise of younger people choosing to live alone is another, and it’s historically and distinctively a new phenomenon.
The number of pension-aged people living alone has grown because that population itself has increased. However, the number of younger people living alone has grown in proportion to multi-adult households of working age in Australia and across the globe. We still have very limited understanding of this latter group.
The proportion of single-person households is expected to grow to 30-40% or more of households in most developed countries, including Australia, by 2030. At the same time, more people are dying alone.
Evidence suggests that these trends have significant health, sociocultural, economic and environmental implications. Japan, where these trends are further advanced, is already having to deal with these.
Lessons from Japan
Kodokushi (lonely death), genkai shuraku (village on the edge of extinction) and chihotoshi shometsu (the disappearance of regional towns) are major problems in Japan today. New services are emerging in Japan to cater to the needs of people who live alone. For example, one service plans and carries out the cleaning of someone’s home should they die alone.
For this reason, Japan is referred to as kadai senshin koku (frontier in solving global problems). Australia will soon need to face these problems too.
Digital and networked technologies, especially artificial intelligence and robots, are being explored as support mechanisms in homes, care homes and hospitals. Increasingly, though, the crucial role of human creativity and connection in care is becoming evident.
In neighbouring South Korea, cultural trends like mukbang (eat-casting) are said to have their origins in “the loneliness of unmarried or uncoupled Koreans, in addition to the inherently social aspect of eating in Korea”.
In this case, technologies are being used even to jeopardise people’s health, as individual “BJs” (Broadcasting Jockeys) are paid to broadcast themselves eating – often excessively – while interacting with their audience. Many of them are also eating alone while watching the show.
Problems associated with living alone will have an even more damaging impact on those without homes. In Australia, one in 200 people are homeless. Most of them are people under 35 or, increasingly, women over 55.
We must acknowledge the diversity of the homeless population, and the different factors that cause and sustain the experiences of living alone or being homeless. Such diversity will increase with the growing number of single-person households, income inequality, broader participation in the gig economy, and loss of jobs to automation.
What role for government?
Policy and regulatory measures to decrease housing prices will help. Australia ranks high for unaffordable housing among OECD nations.
The government could also play a central role in enabling collaboration among diverse stakeholders to seek new ways of creating and applying knowledge. This could be used to ask and answer difficult questions about even some of the most widely accepted concepts, like what is “home” for those living alone and homeless.
The answers should then guide us as we create data, tools and systems for care and with care.
It will be critical to ensure the focus is not predominantly driven by a technocentric vision. We need to consider the sociocultural implications that existing and often celebrated technocratic discourses – around smart cities, for instance – might have.
To avoid a technocratically determined fate, we must develop diverse and enduring narratives of Australian cities. This requires what this year’s Boyer lecturer, Genevieve Bell, might call a “bolshie” move. Part of that could involve bringing together interests and capacities across the public, private, community and research sectors to place urban futures as a key intellectual and social agenda.
We need comprehensive, transdisciplinary research and development for short to long-term goals. This must include ambitious innovation in research and practice, supported by new and emerging technologies, but most importantly, creative engagements beyond the usual suspects. This cannot be gesticulatory “co-design” workshops that are exclusive to certain participants.
Instead, we need inclusive engagement to produce new kinds of knowledge relevant to complex present and future urban conditions.
The Australian government’s role in the future development of cities should not be about cleaning up the technological hubris or proliferation of “feral” technologies that we’re generating. Rather, it should be about building individual and communities’ capacity to question and co-create “the wisdom or propriety of a particular developmental direction” of Australian cities.
This article draws on the author’s submission to the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/ITC/DevelopmentofCities" target="_blank">parliamentary inquiry into the Australian government’s role in the development of cities</a>.
Jaz Hee-jeong Choi is senior lecturer in design at Queensland University of Technology
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-are-living-alone-together-in-todays-cities-and-that-calls-for-smart-and-bolshie-moves-85318" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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We are living alone together in today's cities: Jaz Hee-jeong Choi

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GUEST OBSERVER
The “great Australian dream” of owning your own home is rapidly proving to be an illusion for many in the early 21st century.
In an environment of exceedingly high house prices, groups who don’t have secure, long-term employment are at risk of homelessness, particularly as they age. Single, older women are one such group at increasing risk of being homeless.
While housing policy has neglected this area of concern, recent work is beginning to highlight this gap. Most research has been done in metropolitan areas, but women living in regional Australia merit attention too.
In our study of 47 older women who do not own homes in regional New South Wales nearly all were living on low incomes. Their housing ranged from dingy hotel rooms and makeshift sheds or shacks to rundown flats or housing in regional towns. Only a few lived in reasonable circumstances, including community housing.
We discovered that the women had clear ideas about what sort of housing would suit them as they age. For all of them, stability and security of tenure were priorities. Other aspects of what these women wanted were perhaps more surprising and differed from research findings on older women living in cities.
Why is housing a problem for these women?
In a recent article, we argued that women’s work and family roles in the last century left them economically disadvantaged. Most had interrupted employment histories, lower status and lower-paid jobs than men.
Research shows that women who don’t have a partner generally suffer greater insecurity when they can no longer work, particularly if they don’t own their own homes.
Many single women now have to contend with a rental market in Australia in which the laws tend to be skewed in favour of landlords. Leases are typically short-term and tenants have little security of tenure. An overheated housing market, which encourages speculative investment, makes this insecurity worse.
To make matters worse, the availability of public housing has fallen.
What are their housing priorities?
Our study of older women in the Northern Rivers region of NSW found that only two participants had never had a partner. All but four had borne children.
Their shared desire for stability and security of tenure is understandable, given most had very disrupted housing histories.
Many worried about what would happen to them. Elizabeth said: "It would be just lovely to be somewhere where I know I could stay until I died."
Agnes thought she might end up “in an old school bus on somebody’s property”.
The women also expressed a strong desire for privacy and independence, which many of them called their “own space”. They wanted to come and go as they please. For instance, Anne just wants her “own little space to be private”.
Many women linked their desire for security, privacy and independence to their age and their gender. Jane, for example, associated wanting her own kitchen space with being a woman.
In contrast to some research on this group in cities, our participants insisted they did not wish to share housing with other women. They spoke quite vehemently at times – Susan would rather live in a tent than share housing.
What was surprising was that nearly all the women wanted some sort of garden, even if it was a tiny space. This was almost as important as their need for security and independence.
Finally, the women wanted to have space to accommodate their grandchildren and pets. They saw their role as being able to provide a base for their family and to nurture their grandchildren. This seems to reflect more traditional notions of women’s caring responsibilities, which were more widespread last century when these women were young.
We know that pets play a significant role in fostering mental and emotional health in older people. We also know that describing pets as family members is part of a broader trend in Australia. In our study, one participant minded the “grand-dogs” when her daughter was away.
A few women even said they would rather be homeless that give up their pet, such was their attachment. But, for many, lack of secure tenure and independence meant they were denied this source of emotional security.
The Victorian government has recently announced changes to tenancy laws that will allow renters to keep pets, as well as improve security of tenure. This is a welcome development for Victorians. It must be hoped it spreads to other states.
Preferences have policy implications
Our study emphasises the housing preferences of a regional cohort. Though the desire for secure tenure may be widespread, some preferences such as the expressed need for a garden may reflect regional values.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84780/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">If the housing problems that many single, older women experience are to be solved, housing policymakers need to be informed by research about what makes these women’s lives meaningful and productive.
Yvonne Hartman, Lecturer in Politics and Sociology, Southern Cross University and Sandy Darab, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Southern Cross University
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-do-single-older-women-want-their-own-little-space-and-garden-to-call-home-for-a-start-84780" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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What single older women want with the great Australian dream

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/75544/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">GUEST OBSERVER
Melbourne is Australia's most rapidly growing city, a title it wrested from Perth around 2013-14. Several of Australia's big cities are growing well above the national average population growth rate.
At around 1.5 percent, Australia’s current population growth rate is above the world rate of about 1.2 percent, and among the highest in the OECD.
Net international migration comprised about 55 percent of Australia’s population growth in 2015-16. Natural increase – that’s births minus deaths – makes up the rest.
<h2>Victoria is Australia’s fastest-growing state</h2>
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that, since about 2013, Victoria’s population growth rate has risen to become the highest of all the states and territories in Australia.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/10/april%20obs%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/10/april%20obs%201.jpg" width="600" height="299">
<div class="dw-chart-notes">Victoria’s population growth rate (the pale green line) has risen to become the highest of all the states and territories. Western Australia (the black line) was previously the most rapidly growing state but the growth rate has fallen rapidly.</div>
<div class="dw-chart-notes">Source: ABS Cat 3218.0 Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2015-16</div>
<div class="dw-chart-notes"> </div>
<div class="dw-chart-notes">
Western Australia was previously the fastest-growing state but its population growth rate has fallen sharply (by about 70% since 2011-12), likely driven by the demise of the mining boom. Queensland’s growth has declined more gradually.
Victoria’s higher population growth rate is due to it having the highest per capita rate of net international migration of all the states and territories and the largest net in-movement from elsewhere in Australia.
The most important reason for Victoria’s higher rate of net international migration was its higher per capita inflow of international students. Victoria also gained more people due to permanent migration.
After 2012, the net movement of New Zealand citizens to Australia fell rapidly (by 83% in two years). Due to its fall in numbers being shallower, Victoria replaced Queensland as the state receiving the largest net inflow of New Zealand citizens.
About 68% of the precipitous drop in Western Australia’s population growth rate since 2011-12 is because international migration to that state has fallen away. Previously, more people moved to Western Australia from the other states than in the other direction. Now, that trend has reversed.
Decreased net international migration also explains most of the decrease in Queensland’s growth rate over this period.
<h2 class="caption">Big city squeeze</h2>
In recent years, Australia’s population has become increasingly concentrated in its largest cities, and several big cities are growing at well above the average Australian population growth rate.
Melbourne is Australia’s most rapidly growing city, a title it wrested from Perth around 2013-14.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/10/april%20obs%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/10/april%20obs%202.jpg" width="600" height="372">
Australia’s population has become increasingly concentrated in its largest cities. By 2013-14, Melbourne had replaced Perth as the most rapidly growing city.
Source: ABS Cat 3218.0 - Regional Population Growth, Australia, 
</div>
<div id="footer"> 
Sydney’s population, which the ABS says recently reached 5 million, is also growing at above the national average rate. Net in-migration (people moving to Sydney) is the major component of Sydney’s population growth, as opposed to natural increase (births minus deaths).
Brisbane’s growth has slowed but remains above the national average. In contrast, many already sparsely settled areas in inland Australia are experiencing population decline.
<h2 class="caption">The mix of overseas-born residents is changing</h2>
About 28.5% of Australia’s population was born overseas. People born in the United Kingdom are still the biggest group of overseas-born residents, making up 5% of Australia’s population. That picture is changing, however, as chart 1.2 from the ABS shows here.
The share of UK-born residents in Australia is declining, and the proportion of people born in New Zealand has grown over the last decade. Over the same period, the share of China-born residents has increased, and that’s also true for India-born residents.
Australia’s India-born resident population remain predominantly male (119 males per 100 females in 2016), although not as heavily so as previously.
In contrast to China’s male-dominated population back home, among the China-born residents in Australia females are increasingly outnumbering males (just 80 males per 100 females in 2016).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/10/april%20obs%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/10/april%20obs%203.jpg" width="600" height="253">
The closer the line is to 100, the more even the sex ratio. So while there's a fairly even ratio of women to men among UK-born, Australian-born and NZ-born residents in Australia, there are more Chinese-born women than Chinese-born men in Australia. Among India-born residents, there are more men than women.
Nick Parr is anAssociate Professor in Demography, Macquarie University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nick-parr-5830" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Three charts on Australia’s population shift and the big city squeeze: Nick Parr

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A lot has been made about a first home buyer 'strike' over recent years, but the NAB survey and others have shown that often young people are choosing investment property as their first step onto the ladder. 
As such, the share of the market comprising first time buyers hasn't really changed all that much.
Mentioned far more rarely (or more like never) is that with most people doing things later in life than used to be the case, relatively speaking there just haven't been that many people in the key age bracket to buy their first home either.
This is especially so given that the average first timer is likely to be in their 30s these days, at least in the main capital cities.
This trough in Australia's demographic waves might have been one of the more convincing parts of the bear case for the housing markets in recent years, but in the end policy makers opted to sidestep the potential wipeout by cutting interest rates to record lows.
It largely worked by drawing more investors into the froth rather than through pulling forward demand.
In surfing terminology, we've been in a demographic trough for a long period, but it seems that the swell is now beginning to build.
 The next wave
It's probably not for a few years yet that the number of persons in the 31 to 40 age bracket reaches a critical mass that might be considered compelling.
Yet the demographic statistics figures for the quarter ended June 2016 showed that finally things are beginning to move in that direction, with a significant 2% leap in this cohort during the financial year. 
Between now and 2026 the number of persons in this age bracket is <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/making-waves-in-aussie-housing-market" target="_blank">projected to swell dramatically</a>.
Looked at graphically, you can see the trough in the 31 to 40 age bracket becoming emphatic over the last decade. However, the red line shows that the housing market is just beginning reaping the benefits of the ramped up immigration programme (which is tilted heavily towards immigrants aged under 30). 
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bG2S6vRWaqw/WGKN-skn54I/AAAAAAAAg9U/LyJnpIggbCQXm_zF8onwT6DyBNxw2KShACLcB/s640/B1.jpg">
Looked at another way, after mostly treading water for years the number of 31 to 40 year old residents jumped by more than 118,000 in the last 24 months, with hundreds of thousands more to come in a demographic wave between now and 2026.
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PAd8lrtsER0/WGKN9ApG3OI/AAAAAAAAg9Q/3OLVLyzixG83SULWl4fj47n9dxivwpD0wCLcB/s640/B2.jpg">
This is important because although individual choices differ and trends shift over time, in aggregate people tend to do quite predictable things at fairly predictable stages in their lives. 
Variations around the traps 
The bureau's figures showed that although Australia's population is expected to age in a similar way to other developed nations due to a combination of longer life expectancy and lower fertility rates, the immigration programme helped to keep the median age steady at 37 years over the 2016 financial year.
What is clear from analysing the figures, however, is that the states and cities with stronger economies and employment prospects generally have more a favourable demographic outlook than those with rising or elevated unemployment rates.
For example, Tasmania's median age has spiked sharply from 35 to 42 years over the last two decades, as younger adults have chosen the path of interstate migration to the mainland in search of gainful employment.
And while some states saw solid growth in their working age population in 2016, including New South Wales (+1.0%) and Victoria (+1.7%), both Tasmania and the Northern Territory saw their working age populations decline.
The wrap
The picture is quite mixed around the states and cities, but projections show that over the next decade there will be more than three quarters of a million extra persons in the 31 to 40 age bracket, a huge demographic wave to drive new entrants into the housing markets.
That's not to say other cohorts won't expand too - in fact, the total population is projected to expand by a record 4.4 million over the next decade to 28.5 million - but the number of potential new entrants may possibly be the most important driver of demand.
For some reason it's only just dawning on people how population growth will impact traffic congestion in the largest cities.
As a result of this the next big run on housing markets is likely to be towards certain inner suburban locations with transport links at the expense of outer suburbia where infrastructure and jobs are sparse. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
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