The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a> development in Melbourne's inner west is showing that landscaping can be just as influential as architecture, with buyers responding strongly to the garden-first approach adopted from the outset by developer Excelon Projects and the project's design team.

Excelon appointed Six Degrees Architects and landscape architects SBLA to work collaboratively on the development, with a brief to create "a sustainable, design-led building with a focus on community."

That approach has resonated with buyers. According to Next Chapter Director Tom Hirini, who is leading the sales campaign, the landscaped communal garden has become one of the project's defining features, alongside its boutique scale and European-inspired cluster housing concept.

Local downsizers, right-sizers and established families already living in Yarraville and surrounding suburbs have accounted for the majority of purchasers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297740]

Yarraville Green will comprise 53 homes, including apartments and townhomes, arranged around the shared central garden to maximise connections to the landscaped open space. Parking has been moved underground, allowing the ground plane to be dedicated to greenery, pedestrian movement and communal spaces.

The landscape extends well beyond passive planting. Productive garden beds, a pergola, communal gathering spaces, garden sheds and a pet wash have all been integrated into the masterplan, creating spaces designed to encourage everyday interaction between residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297741]

The interiors continue Excelon's focus on craftsmanship, incorporating bespoke elements by Melbourne artisans including leadlight detailing by Adadaz, hand-turned timber hardware by Auburn Woodturning and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen.

Sustainability has also been embedded throughout the project, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating through passive design principles, rooftop solar servicing common areas and rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297735]

Construction continues to progress at Yarraville Green, with structural works well underway and framing works approaching completion under builder Balmain &amp; Co. The project remains on track for completion in mid-2027.

Apartments at Yarraville Green are currently priced from $625,000, while townhomes start from $1.4 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]

Joel Robinson

Garden-led design drives buyer demand at Yarraville Green

National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]

Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]

Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]

Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 41-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 41-storey tower, which has 229 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Demographics

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Contrary to popular perception, the average tenant is not a student, nor even an individual living alone.
A Tenants Union of Victoria report notes that around a quarter of all households across the state are lived in by tenants – more than a million people. The report, based on the 2011 Census, found that 42% of private tenants were couples with children or single parent families.
Another 23% were couple only households, while less than a third of tenants were group households or living alone.
Tenants Union of Victoria policy and liaison officer James Bennett said that renting is no longer the transitional step towards home ownership.
“We know that more people are renting for longer but our culture and laws don’t always reflect this. Over a third of all private tenants in Australia have been renting for over 10 years; however this doesn't necessarily mean a decade in the same rental house,” he said.
Bennett noted that overseas, greater security of tenure in rental housing, with longer leases becoming the norm and more narrowly defined reasons for eviction are seen.
“There is no good reason for ‘no reason notices to vacate’ to exist. Secure and appropriate housing leads to better outcomes for tenants and society - it is good public policy and should be reflected in our tenancy laws,” Bennett said.
The TUV has been calling for minimum standards for rental properties to be introduced in Victoria – a change that will be seen from October 1 in Tasmania.
At present, landlords can legally rent out a property with no heating, weatherproofing, window coverings or hot water.
“Investment in good housing stock is a good investment – the cost of any improvements are easily outweighed by the longer term value to the landlord, the tenant and society. In addition, owners of investment properties can negatively gear the cost of improvements, reducing the cost impact of implementing minimum standards. There is no reason to believe landlords will ‘disinvest’ due to minimum standards."
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

What does the average tenant look like? Hint: Not a student, or single

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The University of Melbourne has the largest number of international students studying on campus, according to latest figures released by <a href="https://aei.gov.au/research/Research-Snapshots/Documents/International%20students%20in%20Australian%20unis%202013.pdf" target="_blank">Australian Education International</a> (AEI).
The total international student enrolments in Australia in the higher education sector dropped by 0.8% in 2013 to 216,298, or 18.8% of the total student population.
The AEI research figures revealed the University of Melbourne had 14,165 onshore international students in 2013, accounting for 27.1%.
The University of New South Wales ranked second with 13,123 onshore international students.
Next followed by Monash University with 12,271 onshore international students.
There were 410,925 international students from 193 countries studying on a student visa in Australia in 2013. 
<img src="/images/2014/08/18/students-aug-18-one.jpg" alt="">
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

International students head to University of Melbourne and UNSW

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One of the best pieces of advice I've received as a property investor is to "follow the jobs growth".
Australia is in the midst of a significant structural shift towards knowledge and services based industries and the data shows that increasingly jobs growth, population growth and economic output is flowing to the centre of our major capitals.
With just over 60% of Australia's population located in the five largest capital cities it might seem reasonable to expect that around 60% of jobs created would be in those five largest capital cities too.
However, this is nowhere near being the case as this week's <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6291.0.55.001" target="_blank">Detailed Labour Force</a> data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed.
Over the years our analysis shows that jobs growth has been much stronger in the five largest capital cities at well over 70% of the total for their respective states.
And over the past five years, of the jobs growth in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, some 77.4% of the jobs added have been in the capital cities, with only regional Queensland contributing significantly.
Not only is there a structural shift afoot in favour of capital cities and centralisation, our analysis of the data below shows that the trend is actually now accelerating.
Full-time employment growth
Looking at full-time jobs growth over the long-term we can see that while regional New South Wales has added jobs until relatively recently, the overwhelming majority of employment growth has been in the capital cities:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dt8z9s3UOG4/U_B05mGAQMI/AAAAAAAAPQ4/9Tm5vYiGNrM/s1600/a.jpg">
In the other states we expect to see something similar playing out, with one exception: Queensland.
Queensland is home to some large and growing conurbations outside Brisbane including Gold Coast/Tweed Heads, Sunshine Coast, Cairns, Toowoomba and Townsville, for example, and as such the rest of state figures for Queensland have tracked relatively strongly. Not so elsewhere...
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1tKh0E-aoNw/U_B07TRQUcI/AAAAAAAAPRU/_i04FRUITmA/s1600/b.jpg">
Total employment growth 
In recent times many jobs added are not of the full-time variety and therefore we have run the same charts for total employment growth over the long run. Note that regional Victoria has added more part-time jobs, but still it is the capital cities which overwhelmingly lead the way.
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uHIgsX1gC1g/U_B03-q19FI/AAAAAAAAPQo/p3i7sUidN8E/s1600/1.jpg"> 
And it's a similar story in the other states. 
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AxBZkLXhp2k/U_B04C2vmyI/AAAAAAAAPQk/YJCm3-l5Buo/s1600/2.jpg"> 
These figures are sometimes easier to interpret in a column chart, and here the evidence in favour of Australia's increasing dependence upon its capital cities for total employment growth and prosperity is compelling (click chart):
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GpnmuqCiJ3c/U_B04DvW1aI/AAAAAAAAPQg/bsf_ncP_K1M/s1600/3.jpg"> 
We note that jobs growth in regional Australia has stalled, and with the mining construction boom transitioning into the production phase, this trend is likely to become worse rather than better.
Unemployment
Finally, we note that employment growth is not yet occurring fast enough in this cycle to offset population growth in the capital cities and thus the trend in unemployment is up.
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d5ufWNhUMmM/U_B05okGE_I/AAAAAAAAPRA/yXtI3XyDhvM/s1600/5.jpg"> 
Our analysis of population growth in the 'rest of state' regional areas over recent years has shown the growth in regional population to be comparatively weak, and therefore unemployment should not be rising. However, regional jobs growth in Australia has almost totally stalled and the the recent unemployment trend is therefore still up in most cases. 
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d5ufWNhUMmM/U_B05okGE_I/AAAAAAAAPRA/yXtI3XyDhvM/s1600/5.jpg">
In short, the capital cities are increasingly becoming the job and population growth magnets, and as the data continues to show, this is becoming more and more so the case as the years progress.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Structural shift towards capital city employment accelerates

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2013 was a stonking year for population growth with the Aussie population increasing by 396,200 persons, with particularly strong population increase in New South Wales (+110,300), Victoria (+107,900), Queensland (+79,700) and Western Australia (+71,300).
However, our analysis shows us that the population growth figure in 2014 will be weaker - and in some states considerably weaker - and we believe that the final population growth figure this year is likely to be closer to 300,000 than 400,000.
In particular, a number of states are in a significant population growth downtrend which we'll explore in more detail below, following last week's <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1Jun%202014?OpenDocument" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a> release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Short-term arrivals record high
As a first point of interest, the number of short-term overseas arrivals in Australia has hit record heights and may soon even be approaching 7 million on a rolling annual basis.
This is of significant consequence over the longer term as Australia becomes an increasingly popular country of choice for visitors and probably long-term settlers too.
 <img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-u9v2IgwH1OM/U-US6ks0g5I/AAAAAAAAPFo/KwBbT8BNFhU/s1600/1.jpg">
Long-term arrivals easing 
The number of long-term arrivals in Australia has pulled back to a rolling annual level of just over 700,000, after hitting a record high of more than 790,000 last year.
The monthly figures have shown quite a significant pullback since February suggesting that we are now in an entrenched downtrend of long-term arrivals.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cTyvPDQPPAs/U-US60USjZI/AAAAAAAAPF0/ryT2mXLqN98/s1600/2.jpg">
When offsetting long-term departures this equates to rolling 12 monthly net long-term overseas migration of just over 370,000 persons, which is approximately 10% lower than the peak levels seen in Australia. 
 <img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-axv04E8mtvQ/U-US65ZHHPI/AAAAAAAAPFs/V0yJ2T52UzY/s1600/3.jpg">
When throwing in the natural rate of increase in Australia as well as other short-term movements, this shows us that we will still experience strong population growth in 2014 at about double the long-term average, but the levels will be quite some way down on what we saw last year.
Settlers by country of birth - fewer Poms and Kiwis 
One of the interesting standout demographic trends to note that Brits and and New Zealanders are rapidly pulling the pin on migrating to Australia, with the numbers continuing to decline.
On the other hand, the number of settlers from China and India has been picking up strongly, which could become a significant structural change in our demographic make-up.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-T36_2fjzT14/U-UTCay_QBI/AAAAAAAAPGA/-Wdfvd9JnXQ/s1600/4.jpg">
Asian buyers
There have been countless inciteful comments over recent times about "Asians buying our homes"; "Asians taking our jobs" etc...plus ça change.
I thought I'd run the below rolling 12 monthly chart of settlers by continent over the long run to underscore an important point - over the past decade the "Asians" which people are fingering are often in fact Australians. 
The statistics show that Australia is increasingly becoming a country with a population of Asian heritage, and contrary to the widespread beliefs spouted on the internet, not all Aussie-Asian migrants hail from China!
 <img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aDvwBLU8Uxk/U-UTDt_LDOI/AAAAAAAAPGQ/fyxF-RwnlWs/s1600/5.jpg">
Splitting it down a little, it's clear that the Asian migrants come from all over Asia, although it's true that the increase in immigration from NE Asia and South/Central Asia is largely a result of increases from China and India in particular.
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pOQQoFJ_Xg8/U-UTCb1AgiI/AAAAAAAAPGE/0n04hIYG3tY/s1600/6.jpg">
Population growth will be very different in 2014
Population growth in 2014 will be very different from what a number of commentators seem to be expecting.
While the numbers jump around a bit and it is not possible to forecast with a high degree of accuracy, projecting forward the trends from previous <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0" target="_blank">ABS Demographic Statistics</a> releases suggests something quite different for 2014.
Natural increase in 2014
Natural increase in population we might reasonably expect to remain fairly steady as compared to 2013 at approximately 160,000, implying that this segment of growth will be most heavily focused on the more populous states.
For 2014, we might expect to see natural increase of something in the region of:
New South Wales - 50,000
Victoria - 37,500
Queensland - 35,000
Western Australia - 20,000
South Australia - 7,500
Other - 10,000
Total - 160,000
Article continues on next page. Please click below. 
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Net overseas migration and interstate migration in 2014
NSW
Net overseas migration has been very, very strong in New South Wales (i.e. Sydney) and has been tracking very solidly at around 70,000 per annum. 
After allowing for adverse net interstate migration of -15,000, New South Wales appears likely to see population growth in 2014 of around 105,000, which is exceptionally strong.
VIC
For Victoria, with the rate of net overseas migration having slowed in December 2013 and unemployment rising to 7% seasonally adjusted, we expect net overseas migration plus net interstate migration to be slower at approximately 50,000 in 2014, leading to a total state population growth for 2014 of 87,500.
QLD
Queensland is a major beneficiary of net interstate migration seeing +7,000 in 2014 which we may expect to continue. 
However, net overseas migration to the sunshine state dived in the December 2013 quarter. It's not yet clear whether that was a rogue print or the beginning of a trend. 
The slowing of total net overseas migration to Australia over the last six months suggests that it could be the latter, in which case total population growth could slow to around 60,000 in 2014 from nearly 80,000 in the prior year (generally, we take the conservative projections here).
SA
Net overseas migration also dived in South Australia in December 2013 and the state also suffers from a 'brain drain' and adverse interstate migration via a of around 4,000 per annum. 
We therefore project that total population growth in South Australia will be weak in 2014, at around 10,000 per annum. WA
Previously strong interstate migration to Western Australia had dried up almost completely by the end of 2013.
Meanwhile net overseas migration is likely to pull back in 2014 quite significantly as the mining boom peaks - we expect significant declines from 45,000 in the prior year, to perhaps only half of that figure in 2013. 
This is a highly unpredictable figure to estimate, but Western Australia's population growth, which was rampant in 2013 at 2.9%, could potentially dive to as low as 40,000 this year.
Other
And you can essentially throw a blanket around the rest, with the other states adding perhaps 7,500 persons between them.
Total Australia 2014
Totting that up, we could see:
New South Wales - 105,000
Victoria - 87,500
Queensland - 60,000
Western Australia - 40,000
South Australia - 10,000
Other - 7500
Total - 310,000
Clearly these figures will not be accurate, as they cannot be, but they are the best projections we can come up with given the available information and it will be interesting to see how the 2014 actuals track once they begin to roll in.
Where will the population growth happen?
Finally, where is the population growth actually take place?
Please do not be head faked by commentary which suggests that the cities are becoming less centric in nature, because they are not. In fact, all of the available evidence proves precisely the opposite is true. 
The major cities are becoming "self sustaining job magnets" and the population growth is taking place increasingly in inner and middle ring suburbs of the four major capitals, while regionally population growth is lagging badly.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/images/sp-so-150514-graph5-small.gif" alt="Graph 5: Population Density (Persons per square kilometre, 2011)">
Note how the change in population density was becoming ever more centrally focused over the half decade to 2011.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/images/sp-so-150514-graph9-small.gif" alt="Graph 9: Change in Population Density">
And jobs density shows the same picture.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/images/sp-so-150514-graph4-small.gif" alt="Graph 4: Job Density">
As was the change in jobs density from 2006 to 2011, which was ever more closely focused on the large city centres.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/images/sp-so-150514-graph8-small.gif" alt="Graph 8: Change in Job Density">
The result of this is that house prices continue to rise faster in suburbs closer to the city centres, and particularly in the lager cities.
All of the available evidence could not be more clear on this point.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/images/sp-so-150514-graph11-small.gif" alt="Graph 11: House Price Gradient">
Meanwhile small cities and regional centres are now struggling because the great household debt binge which ran for 15 years from the early 1990s has long since finished circa 2006.
If you want to source capital growth in this modern, post-GFC era of record low borrowing rates and increased foreign buyer desire to store wealth in prime location real estate, look to inner suburbs of the largest cities.
This has always been my viewpoint because I learned a huge amount from my experiences in a more mature city (London).
However, since I may suffer from confirmation bias, I would urge readers to consider what independent studies from the <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/rba-on-housing" target="_blank">Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have found</a>. And for that matter, consider what the <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/x" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a> found as well.
Very conclusive indeed.
You can visit <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) or Pete's <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blog</a>.
His latest book is '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' .
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Major cities becoming "self sustaining job magnets" as national population growth eases

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There is a growing disparity in financial comfort between households described as ‘asset-rich’ and other households, particularly between age groups, according to ME Bank’s latest biannual Household Financial Comfort survey conducted in June.
ME Bank’s consulting economist, Jeff Oughton, noted that the survey sees this distance between the two groups growing due to a rise in property prices.
“Asset-rich households (including self-funded retirees and home owners) have benefited from a sustained rise in global and local equity prices as well as significant gains in residential prices, especially in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth,” said Oughton.
“In contrast, limited household income gains and rising concerns about cash savings among most other households have seen their financial comfort falling,” he said.
Those aged 65 plus saw their financial comfort increase by 9% over the six months to June to the highest number since the survey began, according to the survey, while all other life stage groups fell significantly. In particular, Gen X fell by 4% to its lowest level since the survey commenced.
Looking at households, retirees were the most comfortable. Self-funded retirees' financial comfort was up 8%, while government-funded retirees fell 15%.
All other main household groups’ comfort fell in the six month period.
In total, 54% of households reported being unable to save each month, the highest in three years, with overall financial comfort falling 3%. This is reversing the gains recorded in 2013.
Those breaking even numbered 42%, while 12% were drawing on savings, loans or home equity to get by.
Financial comfort is expected to drop even further over the next 12 months.
“Household income has been negatively impacted by relatively low average wage growth, moderate job gains, rising unemployment and corresponding falls in job security over the period, as well as an anticipated tightening in government income assistance and tax benefits announced in the Federal Budget,” said Oughton.
“About the same proportion of Australians (30%) reported income gains as income falls during 2013/14, compared with the corresponding outcomes of 39% and 28% respectively during the previous financial year.”
In New South Wales and Western Australia, comfort fell by 5%. In Victoria, a 2% drop was seen, while South Australia fell by 6%. Queensland remained unchanged, and Tasmania rose 10%, while the ACT fell by over a third. ME Bank notes that these smaller sample sizes make for more volatile results.
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Growing wealth inequality in Australia fuelled by rising property prices: ME Bank

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Since the onset of the global financial crisis, migration between Australia’s states and territories has slowed.  
Demographic data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that overseas migrants arriving in the country’s mining states is easing, with most preferring to settle in New South Wales and Victoria.
Over the 12 months to December 2013, there were 235,797 net overseas migrants to Australia while the rate of natural increase was recorded at 160,357.  At a national level, interstate migration cancels itself however, looking at each state you can see that over recent years there are far fewer people moving between the states and territories.
By way of net migration, New South Wales continues to lose residents at a slower rate, while Victoria is the only state where there is a significant rise in the cross border inflow of residents.  
The mining states of Queensland and Western Australia have each seen a fall in both net interstate and net overseas migration over the year. This is a flow on from the slowdown in mining construction activity where activity on these projects move from construction to production which is resulting in lower worker demand.
New South Wales is still seeing a net outflow of residents from the state with a net 11,219 residents leaving the state in 2013.  Over the past 20 years, the outflow of residents has averaged a much higher 18,391 persons.  While the state is seeing some outflow to other states it is well and truly making up for it via the 71,446 net overseas migrants over the year.
<img src="/images/2014/07/31/kusher-july-31-one.gif" alt=""> 
Victoria has recorded an annual average net loss of citizens to other state and territories of 2,278 residents over the past 20 years. Victoria is now attracting a record number of net interstate migrants, with 7,528 new residents moving from other states last year.  Victoria also attracts a significant 62,337 net overseas migrants.
<img src="/images/2014/07/31/kusher-july-31-two.gif" alt=""> 
In Queensland the net inflow of residents from other states and territories is close to a record low. During 2013, Queensland’s net interstate migration was recorded at 6,897 persons compared to a 20 year average of 22,743 per annum. Although Queensland attracted 37,355 net overseas migrants, it is a sharp fall from the 46,161 at the same time in 2012.
<img src="/images/2014/07/31/kusher-july-31-three.gif" alt="">
South Australia has historically shown a much more stable level of population growth. Over the 2013 calendar year, South Australia lost a net figure of 3,994 residents to other states which was slightly higher than the average net loss of 3,263 residents over the past 20 years. Over the 12 months to December 2013, South Australia recorded net overseas migration of 11,872 residents which was slightly higher than the 11,203 over the same period the previous year.
<img src="/images/2014/07/31/kusher-july-31-four.gif" alt="">
Western Australia has seen a downturn in both net interstate and net overseas migration over the past year. Compared to the 20 year average net interstate migration, WA migration is still above average however; it has fallen by -56% over the year to 4,800 persons in 2013. Net overseas migration has also fallen from 56,580 in December 2012 to 45,401 persons in December 2013. 
<img src="/images/2014/07/31/kusher-july-31-five.gif" alt="">
Historically, residents have migrated from New South Wales and Victoria to Queensland and to a lesser degree Western Australia. Since the onset of the financial crisis the outflow of citizens to Queensland and Western Australia has slowed with fewer residents leaving New South Wales and Victoria.  
The sea change phenomenon was a big driver of this migration before the financial crisis. It now seems that when someone has secure employment, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, they are less inclined to trade that in and move interstate.
With unemployment rising nationally and demand for workers in the resources sector slowing we would expect this trend to continue over the coming year.  In fact the net loss of residents from New South Wales may reduce further and the net gain of residents in Victoria may increase.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Interstate movements remain low, but Victoria attracting a record number of interstate migrants

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“Too many workers live too far away to fulfil our cities’ economic potential,” is the conclusion of a recently published study by the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Grattan institute</a>.
The report maps the dollar value of goods and services produced by workers within a particular area of Australia’s biggest cities.  Demonstrating a disproportionate 80% is created on just 0.2% of the nation’s land mass.
 <img src="/images/2014/07/28/cashmore%20july28%20one.png" alt="">
Source: Grattan Institute.
It mirrors findings highlighted in a recent speech by Luci Ellis, head of financial stability at the RBA, who collected the addresses of people’s workplaces from the 2011 Census, to construct a picture that is particularly striking if directly contrasted with where employees actually live.
<img src="/images/2014/07/28/cashmore-july28-two.gif" alt="">
“Inner areas have become even greater job magnets in recent years; some middle and outer areas added people, but not so many jobs, so their job-to-worker ratios actually declined,” wrote Ellis. 
Places with ratios well above 1 are employment centres. They pull in commuters across the city even from outside its borders. While the very pale fringe areas, attracting the largest population growth due to pressures of affordability, are the ‘commuter districts’, dormitory suburbs, where jobs and community infrastructure have failed to follow through.
The picture is one of increased social polarisation – fringe localities tend to face higher crime rates, elevated levels of unemployment, along with reports of <a href="https://theage.domain.com.au/health-fear-on-estates-20120314-1v3lw">depression and mental illness,</a>
Poor supply policy and delays zoning pockets within the urban boundaries for residential development, means a typical house and land package on a compact 450 square metre site, transacts for no less than $400,000.
Instead of a sensible system of bond financing, where residents pay back proportionally over a lengthy period of time, or a broad based land value tax to replace other taxes as advocated in the Henry Tax Review, funds for the provision of essential infrastructure are loaded onto the upfront cost of housing and promptly passed to the buyer. 
Yet councils can wait years for the finances to arrive.  The funds are only payable upon subdivision and with no control over the development or release of newly zoned land; buyers often pay for services they may never receive.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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The Grattan report is subtitled “Cities as Engines of Prosperity” and charts Australia’s evolution from a country that “made things”, into one that is now reliant on centrally clustered “knowledge-intensive and specialised services”.
<img src="/images/2014/07/28/cashmore%20july28%20three.png" alt="">
Together, the cities above, account for 15% of Australia’s economic activity but despite declining job-to-worker ratios in the outer suburbs, along with increases in the price-to-distance trade off for home buyers, only 8% of Australia’s employed population actually work in the central hubs of each major capital.
In Melbourne for example, over 50% of jobs in are located more than 13 kilometres from the inner core, with fewer that 20% of jobs in the CBD itself.
These are not high paying jobs however, which leads the authors to imply we need to move closer in and“minimise barriers to highly productive activity in CBDs and inner city areas”.
They suggest this would provide industries with a “wider range of potential workers to choose from”. 
 “Australia’s cities are the backbone of our economy, with CBDs and inner city areas critically important to the nation’s prosperity….The more highly skilled and specialised a job, the greater the need to find the best person to fill it.”
Knowledge based and specialised services cover a diverse area, including industries such as, finance, insurance, real estate, and business services, as well as cultural, media, communication, and education facilities for example.
They are gaining predominance across the globe, due to a technological boom that is powering us forward in an expansion not unlike the industrial revolution.
3-D printing is lowering the cost and logistics of production. Advances in the research of solar and renewable energy have paved the way for homeowners to store electricity overnight and possibly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/storing-solar-power-is-the-key-to-cutting-energy-bills-csiro-says-20140502-zr2zw" target="_blank">disconnect from the grid</a> completely.  
Companies such as Uber and Lyft have created innovative apps to provide cheaper transport options for consumers and ironically, changes in the way we interact and communicate have allowed people and jobs to disperse over a broader footprint and successfully collaborate across international borders.
However, this is not where Australia excels.
Moves to take advantage of the innovation revolution have been continually hampered by government intervention, winding back tariffs and scaling down their 2020 Renewable Energy Target, acting to protect the cartel of the Taxi industry’s ‘licensing’ monopoly, and cutting funding to organisations such as the CSIRO. 
No - the predominant sector that yields the most “knowledge intensive” gains in Australia comes from the FIRE industry (finance, insurance, and real estate)– which has its infrastructure webbed like a parasite on the back of the great Australian housing boom. 
<img src="/images/2014/07/28/cashmore-july28-five.gif" alt="">
At a global banking conference in 2013, the question was asked: "Why the hell are Australian Banks performing so well!?" It was in response to a chart showing a decade rise in market capitalisation on the global banking index, from 2% to 14%.
The answer was obvious; the banking sector <a href="https://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/01/31/therovingcavaliersofcredit/" target="_blank">makes its money by creating debt</a> – mostly mortgage debt and our highly leveraged ‘too big to fail four’ are the world’s most heavily exposed to residential and commercial real estate, capturing 88% of the mortgage market alone.
To be clear, the FIRE Economy is not a value adding economy; it profits by extracting economic rent from the debt on rising land values, impeding areas of productive enterprise and trading the interest in a multi trillion-dollar derivatives market to advantage those sitting at the top of the financial pyramid.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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To survive, the FIRE sector must sell the illusion that the economy and its participants can achieve economic prosperity through speculation on rising property values.
This has been assisted by tax, housing, and monetary policy, resulting in Australian’s holding some of the highest levels of private debt in the developed world. 
Tax withholdings or exemptions given to land holders for example, result in an increase of unearned monetary gains (economic rent) available to be capitalised at the current interest rate into the upfront cost of land. 
This was aptly demonstrated in a recent release by <a href="https://www.prosper.org.au/2014/07/24/negative-gearing-is-costing-you-a-lot-more-than-you-think/">Moodys’ Analytics</a>, estimating how the tax policy of negative gearing, has acted to inflate Australian house prices by no small degree.
 <img src="/images/2014/07/28/cashmore-july28-seven.gif" alt="">
Supply policy has further assisted.
Inelastic responses to market conditions have allowed professional land-bankers to squat on sites at low cost and secure windfall gains when the sites are later rezoned for residential development.
Allowing the uplift of land values to capitalise year upon year into the cost of housing, may be gift-wrapped with corporate spin to suggest it somehow benefits the community, however, a cursory analysis reveals the exact opposite to be true.
It raises the cost of living for every single household, increasing welfare costs, and leaving less to invest in sustainable industries that contribute to the county’s real ‘value adding’ economy. 
As demonstrated by the British economist and historian Fred Harrison in his book The Great Tax Clawback Scam.
The pull of the centralised core, where property values and wages are highest, results in decades of progressive taxes on every worker in the state being clawed back by a few, as inner city land values benefit from higher wages, increased demand and improvements to social infrastructure and transport arterials to do precisely as the Grattan review suggests – and keep us locked and reliant on a small pocket of land for our economic gains.
It brings with it the theory of urban consolation – reduce sprawl and force residents into apartments, however doing so can have the adverse effect of increasing sprawl, as lesser industries ‘hop’ the middle ring, in search of cheaper options and their employees move out further still.
If we were living in ancient Rome where walking was the general mode of transport, you could understand the need to stay centrally located; however we are not. 
We’re in an age of mobility where global research is being poured into innovative modes of transportation such as solar roads and electric cars.
If a buyer is able to travel to the supermarket, park and any other amenity on the priority list within a 30 or 40-minute period, the distance from the CBD is not an imposing factor. The decider is the time it takes to drop the kids off to school in one direction and travel to work in the other. 
Since the 1970s, successive governments have poured millions into incentives to try and decentralise and boost regional localities.  However, all attempts have failed, because the funding mechanism is flawed.
Decentralisation requires affordable land for both business and buyer, which is not unduly inflated due to policies that promote speculation, as well as growth enhancing infrastructure and flexible supply policy that responds in a timely manner to homebuyer (not speculator) demand.
The Henry Tax review was not slow to <a href="https://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/finalreport.aspx?doc=html/publications/papers/final_report_part_1/chapter_12.htm">point this out</a>, when it suggested slowly phasing out a vast array of ‘bad taxes’ that impede productivity and reduce mobility (stamp duty, payroll, insurance, vehicle registration, and so forth, as well as phasing out those that ‘reward’ speculation) and instead, collecting more of the economic rent from the unimproved value of land.
Historically, the capture of economic rent (through land tax and to some extent ‘betterment’ taxes) financed some of the most remarkable infrastructure we have. Sydney Harbour Bridge being a case in point.
It was <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/rearvision/tony-abbotts-big-plans-at-odds-with-infrastructure-history/5404212">acknowledged</a> at the time, that residents on the north shore would benefit significantly from an increase in their property values as a result of this essential piece of infrastructure.  Therefore, a framework was set in place to capture a proportion of the uplift – approximately one third – to assist with funding.
This was in no way detrimental to the property owners.
The increased advantage of economic activity coupled with the rise in prices resulting from the enterprise, more than compensated. A win-win if you like – and readily accepted by the public as ‘fair’.
A more familiar example can be used for owners of apartments. 
When buyers purchase a unit, they expect to pay a yearly corporation fee for maintenance and improvement of community services. In doing so, it reduces the up front cost consumers are willing to pay as they configure the fee into their budget, yet it is also an investment, as the benefits and any subsequent improvement attracts future purchasers. 
A broad based land value taxation as advocated in the Henry Tax review is essentially no different.
In markets that have similar policies – a change in the tax mix, with higher taxation on land in lieu of those on productivity in order to fund related infrastructure, coupled with good supply policy, enables a process of decentralisation and increased affordability to follow through.  Both reforms work hand in hand.  
The prosperous economy of Texas in the USA is a good example of this.
Since June 2009, about 48% of all jobs created in America have been in the state; it has booming population growth, high levels of disposable income, low house prices and has been termed 'The Texas Miracle'.
This is because with no income tax employees get to keep more of their earnings while higher property taxes used to fund community infrastructure stem speculative inflation, which along with good supply policy has created a truly decentralised city, with only <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQtDHY_tkns" target="_blank">7% of jobs located ‘downtown’</a>.
We do not have to mirror another country’s policies, but it does prove the ability to create a system that provides a fairer regime for the funding of infrastructure and stops runaway house price gains.
However, in an economy that is dominated by the financial sector, and reports such as the latest Grattan review celebrating Australia’s city-centric culture, efforts to decentralise and produce a fairer system for all Australian’s is, once again, likely to fail.
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catherinecashmore-6LXia3pPQj

We need to change our city-centric economic views

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A generational shift may be coming that will substantially alter the property market, according to Club Plus Super. But what that shift is may catch you off guard.
Club Plus Super’s chief executive officer Paul Cahill says that the current structure of superannuation will see many Australians forced to sell the family home to fund their retirement – and move in with their children.
Modelling undertaken by the company has shown that a 65 year old person’s super balance will likely be dried up after just six years in retirement.
This matches an Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia report that saw the majority of Australians relying on modest levels of superannuation, with many retirees relying on the Age Pension. A Club Plus Super survey also discovered that while more than 50% of the 843 respondents understood the funds needed to retire, just one third were making extra contributions.
“This system and the sheer scale of Australia’s rapidly aging population will potentially see hundreds of thousands of retirees run out of funds and not be able to enjoy the retirement they envisaged,” said Cahill.
What will then potentially be seen is a system where retirees sell their large properties, unlock equity and then either rent, downsize or move in with their children.
“These trends could significantly change the dynamics of Australian families, the Australian property market and the Australian economy,” he said, pointing to moving in with children as the most cost effective option for many retirees.
He says that either Australians need to make additional contributions to grow their superannuation, or the government need to overhaul the system.
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The generational shift set to alter the property market: Club Plus Super

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NSW attracted the largest number of new residents at 110,923 over the period followed by Victoria with 107,916 new residents, Queensland with 79,706, and Western Australia with 71,301.
An important indicator for the housing market, population growth statistics represent a proxy for housing demand. More residents imply more people who require accommodation.
At its peak, Australia’s population reached a record high in 2008 with an annual growth rate of 2.2%. Since then, population growth has fallen away sharply and dropped to its lowest point of 1.4% for the year end to March 2011. In 2012, population rose to reach a new high point of 1.8%.
ABS data indicates that the rate of population growth has been slipping since mid-last year, slowing to an annual growth rate of 1.7%. Despite a slowdown, population growth remains well above average.
<img src="/images/2014/06/26/lawless-june-26-one.gif" alt="">
Source: RP Data, ABS
The level of natural increase, that is births minus deaths, was 8.6% higher than the ten year average and 19.1% higher than their 30-years average over the 2013 calendar year. In addition, net overseas migration was tracking substantially higher than average at 16.7% above the 10 year average and 78.6% above the 30-years average.
Across the states, there were some diverse population growth trends where in raw numbers; NSW continues to attract the largest number of new residents, at 110,923 over the 2013 calendar year. Victoria showed the second largest number of new residents (107,916) followed by Queensland (79,706) then Western Australia (71,301).
According to the ABS, net overseas migration is the largest contributor to population growth. Across each of the states except for Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, natural increase outweighs net overseas migration numbers.
New South Wales holds the largest number of overseas migrants at 71,446 net migrants over the calendar year, followed by Victoria which recorded 62,337 overseas migrants.
Both NSW and Victoria are the two states showing a healthy upwards trend in overseas migration. Net overseas migrants into WA were the third highest of any state at 45,401, however, the ABS data shows a substantial decline over the year with overseas migrant numbers down 19.8% compared with the 2012 calendar year. A similar trend is evident in the other mining state, Queensland, where overseas migration is down 19.1% over the year.
Victoria attracted the largest number of net interstate migrants for the second consecutive quarter; historically it has been Queensland and more recently Western Australia. A slowdown in the resources sector is the likely cause of stymied interstate migration into both of these states.
With population growth winding down we can expect some further easing of housing demand, both from a sales and a rental perspective. The slowdown seems to be most pronounced in the mining states of WA and Qld where population growth conditions have previously been the strongest.
<img src="/images/2014/06/26/lawless-june-26-two.gif" alt="">
 
<img src="/images/2014/06/26/lawless-june-26-three.gif" alt="">
<img src="/images/2014/06/26/lawless-june-26-four.gif" alt="">
Source: RP Data, ABS
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Stalling population growth will lead to further easing of housing demand

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An interesting release from Australia's largest mortgage aggregator Australian Finance Group, showing some notable trends in the Aussie property market.
The index is highly seasonal, of course, as we are now into the cold winter months - and most certainly in Sydney we are!
Stripping out seasonality, mortgage demand sits some 23% higher than it was a year ago.
Even allowing for any possible shifts in AFG's market share, this implies a huge annualised uplift in mortgages sold:
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Y6RNrL1ZFBc/U7SvsRlQbvI/AAAAAAAAOOs/cVdY8ya1T7o/s1600/AFg6.jpg">
The average mortgage size by state shows that how it has been New South Wales and specifically Sydney which has driven the property boom over the past 18 months.
Queensland has also been a strong performer over the 12 months from July 2013.
Elsewhere, markets have been solid enough, but relatively much more subdued:
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KTJ0y5gnZqs/U7Svs_LC0gI/AAAAAAAAOOc/rF4Cf7JvuvE/s1600/Afg1.jpg">
One trend we are watching is the role of investors by state, and in particular whether investors will spread their wings to look at the Sunshine State of Queensland next up in seeking yield and value.
There has been an uplift in the share of investors in the Queensland market, but Sydney remains the speculator's paradise with more than 45% of the mortgage market being sen up by investment purchases:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sHzCLOouTno/U7SwGxPWEVI/AAAAAAAAOO0/0YWRcv0ET_g/s1600/AFG7.jpg">
In terms of mortgages sold for the state, New South Wales demand has ripped upwards by +33% year on year, despite the low number of reported first home buyers.
It will be interesting to see if NSW mortgage demand resumes its upwards trajectory from July through to December as it did in 2013:
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ceaR2JP-uZ8/U7Svro9UdXI/AAAAAAAAOOQ/B8kauromDCo/s1600/AFg4.jpg">
Overall, a strong release, and stripping out seasonality mortgage demand appears to remain in a secular uptrend which has been in place since 2011.
Article continues on next page. Please click below. 
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Housing construction boom still on track?
I put forward the view some time ago that residential building approvals would likely hit all-time record highs, driven on by rising dwelling prices over the past couple of years.
Although is is argued by some that supply is effectively strangled by planning restrictions and NIMBY-ism (to some extent, this obviously does play a part, particularly in established inner- and middle-ring suburbs), there has been another factor at play.
And that is, with high labour and construction costs in Australia combined with government charges, dwelling prices were simply not high enough to encourage developers to build.
The numbers are clear - if Sydney's apartment prices were to dip much below $550,000, construction will quickly dry up, even with today's lower financing costs.
In short, projects would not be sufficiently profitable for developers to build and there would be no adequate return on investment.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2013/images/sp-so-230413-graph8-small.gif" alt="Graph 8: Construction Costs">
It's that simple. Ask anyone who works for a major developer in a residential division and they will tell you the same thing.
Dwelling values were previously too low and price action not strong enough for developers to be interested, until recently.
Indeed, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens confirmed as much in a speech this morning.
However, with prices moving up, there is clearly no shortage of approvals being waved through now in Sydney, thus underscoring the point.
In some areas, every second block appears to be under construction, especially in a number of inner south suburbs where thousands upon thousand of apartments are due to come online.
After three months of softer data, most commentators had already called the end of the approvals boom.
Admittedly, things were looking a tad shaky, but at the end of the day monthly approvals data is always necessarily going to be all over the shop.
In the event, after three weak readings building approvals in May jumped by 9.9% month on month to be up 14.3% year on year:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OmJ3i3uomTc/U7UFvwEANpI/AAAAAAAAOPk/YFCx_BAwDfQ/s1600/a+approvals.jpg">
This data is always easier to read when smoothed out on a rolling monthly basis.
As you can see, rolling 12 monthly approvals are approaching the highest level ever recorded in Australia, now tracking at well over 190,000.
The previous annualised record was recorded in 1994 after the cash rate had been slashed from the nosebleed level of 17.5% to just 4.75%, resulting in higher prices and and a construction boom:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OmJ3i3uomTc/U7UFvwEANpI/AAAAAAAAOPk/YFCx_BAwDfQ/s1600/a+approvals.jpg">
The major driver in this cycle has been a big ~20% year on year uplift in apartment approvals, casting a lot of doubt over the sticky supply response theory.
In fact, apartment approvals are booming to new record highs:
 <img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WdLE8tX-6IU/U7UH3Da_DEI/AAAAAAAAOQI/JhEwwZ3HirU/s1600/3+units.jpg">
New South Wales, a state with both a dwelling and an infrastructure deficit, has been leading the way with gusto in recent years:
 <img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9oOHSiKj9R8/U7UFveRjdOI/AAAAAAAAOPc/CbrADiFPzO0/s1600/4+NSW.jpg">
In NSW's case too, it's also been largely an apartment story, with nearly seven in every 10 approvals over the past year relating to unit and apartment stock in Sydney and the state-wide level of apartment approvals soaring:
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DiMTITiI9rE/U7UFvl0XoWI/AAAAAAAAOPg/68ayXXSzr38/s1600/5+NSW+apartments.jpg">
That said, it's notable that what started as a New South Wales and Western Australia boom is now becoming more broad-based.
Only in the Australian Capital Territory jurisdiction, where new supply is essentially not really needed, are building approvals not materially higher than a year ago.
In terms of the capital cities, approvals are generally very strong as detailed by RP Data's Cameron Kusher here:
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d-JzbvPy290/U7UJMz1CTPI/AAAAAAAAOQc/lbcukkrH_hA/s1600/7RPD.jpg">
Source: RP Data, ABS.
"As you can see from the above chart, across each of the major capital cities there has been an upswing in dwelling approvals.
"The most significant upswing has occurred in Sydney and Brisbane however, the number of approvals remains much higher in Sydney and Melbourne than in all other cities.
"The number of dwellings approved for construction is at an all-time high currently in Perth, is very close to its record high in Sydney and at its highest level since the 12 months to June 2004 in Brisbane," wrote Kusher.
No signs of any constipated supply response there, rather the market just seems to be doing exactly what it should do, and the dwelling construction boom remains - albeit tentatively - still on track.
Acquirers of property, particularly buyers of units and apartments, must be wary of pockets of oversupply.
Great wall of foreign capital hits Sydney &amp; Melbourne
Some years ago when I wrote my first book, I noted that one day in the not too distant future, the Aussie dollar would depreciate again and certain parts of our property markets would likely be hit by a great wall of foreign capital.
It's all part of a global shift towards storing wealth in real estate which I discussed in more detail here, and which we have seen playing out in London over the past two decades with ever-widening eyes.
However, as I noted in my book, foreign buyers generally aren't interested in smaller cities and regional centres.
Instead, they will be predominantly interested in buying medium-density properties in the areas they are generally most familiar with - that is to say, inner Sydney and inner Melbourne.
Credit growth in Australia is only just rebounding from 40 year lows and yet prices are surging, with Sydney prices up by 15.4% in the last 12 months alone.
Well, that unprecedented great wall of foreign capital is now here.There has been a lot of debate about foreign buyers purchasing illegally, but even approved annualised spending is up by a whopping 93% to an annualised equivalent of more than $33 billion.
The always-excellent Chris Joye <a href="https://www.afr.com/f/free/blogs/christopher_joye/foreign_buyers_purchase_homes_to_VCVDT4m60HAlgpYbdGrCSL" target="_blank">highlighted in the AFR</a> how foreign buyers are buying up to 40% of newly constructed homes in Sydney and Melbourne (while simultaneously completely disregarding the southern states):
"Foreign investors are likely key drivers of the Sydney and Melbourne housing booms, according to new UBS data, potentially buying up to 40% of all newly constructed homes, and accounting for up to one in eight Australian sales overall.
"Unprecedented levels of foreign buyer activity, combined with the ability of the $559 billion self-managed super fund sector to leverage its cash five times when making property purchases, could be two reasons why this Australian housing cycle is different to anything we’ve seen before."
<img src="https://www.afr.com/r/AFR/Blogs/christopher_joye/201406/Images/housing414x727.png" width="227" height="400">
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<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Lucky 888 Visas take-off
An interest sub-plot which has not received much airtime in the mainstream media is that the controversial "Significant Investor Visas" are being issued overwhelmingly in New South Wales and Victoria too - 85% of them.
The investor "Golden Ticket" or "Lucky 888" visas (doubtless that subclass was chosen as they will be mainly issued to Chinese immigrants) require a minimum $5 million of investment in qualifying assets in exchange for a visa, and the rules allow them to be processed very rapidly.
Another 81 visas were issued in April and May taking the tally to date up to 255, but the big story is that another 928 applications for Golden Ticket visas have been lodged.
Tally all of that up and that's another $5 billion of investment coming overwhelmingly into the two major states, not to mention the additional wealth that the new visa holders will bring with them.
And this is doubtless only the beginning.
Canada recently shut down its equivalent visa scheme with there still being a staggering 59,000 shut out in the waiting lists, most of them wealthy Chinese.
Throw in all of that together with another new advent - SMSF lending for property investment - mixed in with record low interest rates, and I continue to see little prospect of dwindling prices in inner Sydney any time soon.
Yesterday's <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1May%202014?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a> data revealed some very interesting trends.
The number of short-term visitors to Australian shores reached a new record high of 583,600 in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The first key point of note today, which has actually been quite evident to me, both in the capital city and up and down the coast, has been the very substantial increase in the number of Chinese visitors to Australian shores. 
It's long been argued by commentators that Australia will become a playground for wealthy Asians.
Not to say that all Chinese visitors are wealthy, of course! 
But what has certainly been the case that there has been a strong and increasing interest in Sydney and Melbourne for $5 million Significant Investor or "Golden Ticket" Visas, with nearly 1,000 applications reportedly now in the queue to be processed in addition to those already dished out (85% of which were issued in Victoria and New South Wales). 
The number of Chinese tourists in May alone hit 66,700 (+5.9% y/y) - which was 11.4% of the total visitors for the month - helping to pump the short-term visitor levels to new heights:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--gsHtO-E4vQ/U7oxWXGUQFI/AAAAAAAAOWE/fwePpA6uUPc/s1600/Arrivals1.jpg">
The number of long-term arrivals tailed back marginally to a shade under 760,000 on a rolling annual basis, from a peak level of close to 800,000:
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9D_5bScSZ-0/U7oxX-0yt2I/AAAAAAAAOWY/GWTByl0-Ykg/s1600/arrivals2.jpg">
After accounting for long-term and permanent departures, rolling annual net long term migration came in at just a little over 376,000 in May, which is also down from its most recent peak of approximately 408,000 a year ago:
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HsHrOAudybA/U7oxWUUc7_I/AAAAAAAAOV8/PALex_CKoOo/s1600/Arrivals3.jpg">
Australia's population growth is now accounted for by approximately 60% net long term migration and 40% natural increase. These figures appear to be commensurate with annual population growth tailing back from searing highs of well above 400,000 to slightly more moderate (although still undeniably strong) levels, perhaps somewhere in the 300,000s range in 2014.
 
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Asian century
The Permanent Movements - Settlers data series showed that significant numbers of today's migrants hail from countries such as the Phillipines, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Malaysia. From the Middle East, Iraq was another surprisingly strong contributor, at least, to me. 
An interesting point of note is how the number of settlers from New Zealand, and in particular, the United Kingdom, have dropped off dramatically since peaking in January 2009 and February 2008 respectively on a rolling annual basis.
In Britain's case, I'm fairly certain from my own experience that this is in part due to dramatic shifts in the exchange rate caused by the respective fortunes of those economies, and therefore the relative cost of living for Poms in Australia, as I discussed in <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/currency" target="_blank">this timely post</a>.
For my money, the biggest news of today's data set is explained by the graph below:
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6pk7fLfq3Ok/U7oxWgrwrjI/AAAAAAAAOWA/EfOZeuorEq4/s1600/Arrivals4.jpg">
Note how permanent settlers from both China and India are now tracking at or close to record highs.
Incredibly, approximately one in every eight permanent settlers in Australia hails from China (12.3%), and nearly one in every seven from India (13.7%).
Unevenly spread
The above charts show how clearly Australia has increasingly embraced a "populate or perish" mentality in recent years, and this decade and the next are likely to be noteworthy for the dramatic impact of immigration from Asia.
It's worth noting here though how the population growth differs greatly by state and by region:
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KcPgnQY8UAk/U7oxXf3UhGI/AAAAAAAAOWc/-qaoiH6hynI/s1600/Arrivals5.jpg">
The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0" target="_blank">Australian Demographic Statistics</a> for the year to December 2013 showed how the New South Wales population increased by a thumping +110,300 in the 2013 calendar year, with the overwhelming majority of that taking place in Greater Sydney.
Many of the highest growth rates are being seen in the inner and middle-ring suburbs if the harbour city, placing a colossal strain on existing infrastructure and housing markets.
This population and labour market growth has occurred, and is occurring, at the expense of nearly every New South Wales regional centre where population growth rates below the national averages have been seen.
On the other hand, net absolute population growth in Tasmania, the Northern Territory, the Australian Capital Territory and South Australia remained fairly minimal in 2013:
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6EzgEBHbvTg/U7oxXrENM-I/AAAAAAAAOWU/_o0bgEAQNdE/s1600/Arrivals6.jpg">
Summary
Population growth in 2014 looks set to be driven more by China and India than ever before, as well as a number of other south-east Asian and far-east Asian countries. 
However, the absolute Australian population growth figure looks to have peaked for this cycle and perhaps may be closer to 300,000 than 400,000 in this calendar year. 
On the face of it this ongoing strong population growth is all great news for property investors.
However, some alarm bells are starting to ring in a number of areas as higher prices and lower interest rates are driving a glut of new supply in some regions.
In particular, certain parts of Melbourne and regional Victoria appear to have worryingly high vacancy rates, as do some parts of regional New South Wales and Queensland.
Moreover, there has been plenty of questinable advice over the last couple of years about investing for high yields in overpriced mining towns.
Yet in some mining locations we now we have the prospect of a potentially devastating trifecta of declining commodity prices, a crunching drop-off in mining construction and a jumping in unemployment in the resources sector.
Each to their own, but personally I'd be giving the one-trick mining towns a very wide berth.
You can visit <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) or Pete's <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blog</a>.
His latest book is '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' .
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