Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Consumer Sentiment

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The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 3.6% to 103.3 in December from 99.7 in November.
This is a surprisingly strong result and confirms the lift we have seen in the Index over the last three months. The average reading for the Index in the December quarter is 5% above the average for the September quarter when we saw a disturbing slump in consumer spending. This result is supportive of the view that consumer confidence may have bottomed out during that September quarter.
In turn, growth in consumer spending is likely to have also bottomed out in the September quarter. However, with ongoing weak income growth; a low savings rate; and high debt levels we cannot be confident that consumers have the capacity to sharply lift spending despite higher confidence.
A less threatening outlook for interest rates appears to have boosted confidence. During that September quarter households were spooked by media and many commentators saying that interest rates were likely to start rising in the new year. That effect has now calmed down significantly.
Also supporting a more positive assessment for respondents’ finances is coverage of the government’s recent speculation around possible tax cuts.
With the labour market remaining strong respondents are generally more confident about the domestic economy and there is likely to have been a ‘feelgood effect’ from the passing of marriage equality legislation.
Media coverage of tax cuts in the US combined with easing tensions in North Korea, may also be supporting an improved outlook for international conditions.
All five components of the Index improved in December. Responses on family finances support the assessment around interest rates and tax cuts although it is unlikely that respondents are experiencing any relief in terms of wage increases. The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index posted the biggest gain, rising 5.6% to 89.6 – an 18 month high but still well below the 100 mark indicating more consumers are seeing their finances deteriorate than improve. The forward view continues to be more positive the ‘finances, next 12mths’ sub-index posted a further 1.8% rise to 107.3, the most positive reading in a little over two years.
Views on the economy also posted solid gains, the ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index rose 5% and the ‘economic outlook over the next five years’ sub-index was up 3.4%.
The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index rose 2.8% but at 122.1 remains well below the long run average of 127.5 and still pointing to subdued consumer spending plans for the Christmas period.
The December survey included additional questions on news recall that provide insight into the factors shaping sentiment. Overall, recall levels were again low suggesting consumers are getting less exposure to news in general. The highest recall rates were for news on ‘economic conditions’ (19%); ‘budget and taxation’ (19%); interest rates (19%); inflation (10%); jobs (10%); and international conditions (9%). News on all of these topics was viewed as more favourable than three months ago, with particularly big improvements around international conditions, the economy and interest rates.
Consumers continue to become more comfortable about the outlook for jobs. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index declined 2.4% to 127.6 in December, the index reaching its lowest level since May 2011 (recall that lower reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to fall in the year ahead). The index can be viewed as a measure of consumers’ sense of job security. Qld consumers showed a particularly big improvement in December. Notably, all major states now have index reads below their long run averages, meaning consumer expectations for labour markets are marginally better than average.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index rose 2.3% to 100.6, the first reading over 100 since the start of the year. The state detail continues to show materially weaker reads in NSW (90) and Vic (88) as affordability remains a constraint whereas there are much more positive assessments in Qld (121) and WA (122).
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations edged 0.4% lower to 135. Price expectations continue show a sharp slide in NSW where the state index fell a further 12% in December to be down by 24% over the year. In contrast the Vic index was up 2% for the month and 10% for the year, with Qld and WA posting strong gains in the month (up 8% and 9% respectively). The variations mainly reflect the sharper slowdown in price growth evident in the Sydney market.
Responses to additional questions on the ‘wisest place for savings’ continue to indicate high levels of risk aversion. Nearly two thirds of consumers still favour safe options – deposits, superannuation or paying down debt – with only 12.8% nominating real estate and 8% nominating shares. About the same proportion of consumers favour ‘pay down debt’ (20.4%) as favour real estate and shares combined.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on February 6. As discussed above, markets and general commentary have cooled their fervour for rate hikes in 2018. In turn that has helped boost Consumer Sentiment along with other factors discussed above.
However we doubt whether this welcome lift to confidence will be sufficient to see the Bank achieve its ambitious growth forecast in 2018 of 3.25%. Constraints around incomes; savings; and debt are still likely to keep consumer spending growth below trend.
The Bank’s forecasts for core inflation (1.75% in 2018) and the cooling in the Sydney property market (which is once again apparent in this survey) are also likely to be significant headwinds to higher interest rates.
We confirm our view that the cash rate is likely to remain on hold at 1.5% through 2018.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Time to buy NSW dwelling sentiment weakening: Westpac's Bill Evans

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Guest Observer
Consumer expectations for house prices have softened slightly in recent months.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index has fallen about 2.5% between July and Oct, allowing for seasonal fluctuations.
At just over 140, the index still shows price expectations in firmly positive territory, well comfortably above its long run avg of 127.
Of those with a view, nearly 60% expect prices to rise over the next year, 26% expect no change and 15% expect price falls – a net proportion expecting prices to rise of 43%.
Our analysis suggests Oct is a slight seasonal low for expectations (markets tend to cool heading into year end as sellers look to transact before the off season and buyers dry up).
The state breakdown shows a sharper pull back in price expectations in NSW, where the market slowdown has been more pronounced. The shift in expectations suggests the moderation will carry into year end and early 2017.
In contrast, price expectations have continue to rally strongly in WA.
Despite ongoing price slippage in the Perth market, consumer price expectations have swung from clear pessimism to what now looks to be reasonably robust optimism.
While the state market clearly still faces significant headwinds – not least of all a large overhang of vacant dwellings – the sentiment preconditions for a recovery look to be coming into place.
Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2017/October/WestpacRedBookOctober2017.pdf" target="_blank">Westpac Red Book October 2017 (378kb)</a>.
 <img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/The_Red_Book/Red_Book_bites/Redbook-bite-20171023-6.jpg" alt="">
<h2 class="Textspacebefore"> Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
</h2>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Consumer house price expectations soften: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment declined by 1.2 percent in August from 96.6 in July to 95.5 in August. 
The consumer mood has deteriorated over the last year with August marking the ninth consecutive month where pessimists are outnumbering optimists. We have not seen such a succession of weak reads since 2008.
The survey detail suggests increased pressures on family finances; concerns around interest rates; and housing affordability in NSW and Victoria are more than outweighing increased confidence around jobs.
The further weakening in consumer sentiment comes despite some positives leading into this month’s survey. The RBA again opted to leave interest rates unchanged at its August meeting while the Governor sent a clear signal in a recent speech that rates were on hold in the immediate future. Other positives include: a continued improvement in labour market conditions; lower petrol prices (average pump prices down 15c/litre nationally since early June) and a booming Australian dollar, which briefly touched USD 0.80.
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The Index components point to clear pressure on family finances. The sub-index tracking views on ‘finances vs a year ago’ fell 5.1% to 78.1, the lowest level since June 2014, when consumers were shocked by the Abbott government’s first Budget. Much of the weakness is likely to reflect a mix of weak growth in wages; increases in key costs such as electricity and emerging concerns about rising interest rates.
Despite the bleak picture around current finances, consumer expectations are more upbeat. The sub-index tracking expectations for ‘finances over the next 12 months’ firmed 2.1% to 100.4 in August. A reading over 100 indicates that optimists slightly outnumber pessimists. Consumers were also a touch more positive on the economy: the ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index nudged up 0.4%; and the ‘economic conditions, next 5 years’ sub-index posted a stronger 2.3% gain, though coming off a sharp 9.6% drop over the previous two months.
However the weak picture on current finances appears to be affecting consumer attitudes towards major purchases. The ‘time to buy major a household item’ sub-index fell 4.9%, unwinding most of the 6% improvement seen over June- July. Notably, the pull-back has come despite increasingly aggressive price discounting amongst retailers and a likely further improvement in purchasing power from a higher Australian dollar – up over 6c US from its low in May to nearly US 0.80.
Some of the softening in sentiment in August may be a delayed reaction to recent mortgage rate increases – the major banks raised rates on ‘interest only’ mortgages in  late June. After posting a surprisingly firm 4.7 percent rise in July, sentiment amongst consumers with a mortgage fell 6.3 percent in August. Note that despite the increase in ‘interest only’ rates, the average standard variable mortgage rate declined a little between June and August.
Perhaps more importantly, most consumers expect rates to move higher over the next year. Responses to an extra question this month around the outlook for mortgage rates show that, of those consumers with a view, 71 percent expect rates to be higher in 12 months; 27 percent expect rates to be steady; and just 2.6 percent expect further rate cuts. That compares to 60 percent expecting higher rates when the question was last run in February and just 37 percent this time last year.
The one relative bright spot for consumers continues to be around jobs. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index declined 2.6 percent to 132.5 in August  (recall that lower reads mean fewer consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead). The Index is now at its lowest level since November 2011.
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Sentiment around housing improved slightly in August. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index edged 0.8% higher but remained at a low level by historical standards. The detail shows mixed moves across different regions with buyer sentiment falling towards very low levels in Sydney and Melbourne – where affordability pressures remain acute – but surging in Western Australia, where affordability has improved markedly.
Consumer expectations for house prices also firmed slightly overall. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations rose 0.6%, extending last month’s 8.6% bounce. Expectations consolidated in the major eastern states but rose strongly in WA which posted its second strongest reading since late 2014.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on September 5. There is no doubt that the Board will continue to leave the cash rate on hold. The more interesting question is whether, as expected by markets and signalled by consumers’ responses in this survey, the RBA will raise rates next year. High business confidence and improving employment conditions along with the Bank’s own upbeat growth forecasts support the case for higher rates. On the other hand we continue to see evidence of a downbeat consumer and signs that the housing markets are set to slow under the weight of stretched affordability.
Our view is that these factors will slow growth and, along with an inflation rate which remains stubbornly below the Bank’s target zone, will preclude the need for higher rates next year. 
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Softer sentiment amongst consumers with a mortgage fall of 6.3 percent in August: Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Does the falling household saving ratio help to reconcile the disparity in consumer and business confidence?
A solid gap has opened up between business and consumer sentiment.  A falling saving ratio, which has supported household consumption in the face of declining wages growth, looks to be one of the important factors contributing to the disparity in confidence.  It may also help to explain why investment growth is soft despite strong business conditions and confidence.  
Overview
Confidence can be a powerful force. The sentiment of households and businesses regularly plays a role in shaping economic activity. Economists and policymakers often look at measures of reported confidence as forward looking indicators of consumption and investment. Right now, however, the surveys of business and consumer sentiment are sending conflicting signals. 
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A solid gap has opened up between business confidence (and conditions) and consumer sentiment (chart 1). The NAB business survey suggests that business conditions are at their highest level since 2008 while confidence is at an above- average level. In stark contrast, the WBC/MI consumer sentiment report indicates that household confidence is fragile.
In the past, there have been disparities in how consumers and businesses feel. But these divergences tend to be ‘ironed out’ over time and the results converge. This time around the disparity has persisted for an unusually long time.
In this note we attempt to reconcile why business confidence has been so buoyant despite consumers feeling downbeat. On the surface it’s easy to understand why consumers don’t feel good.
Real wages have fallen, household income growth is weak, debt levels are high and the labour market still has plenty of slack in it. As we covered last week, per capita measures of the economy suggest that there hasn’t been a lot a joy for households since the downturn of the mining investment boom.
We won’t go through the details again in this note other than to say that there is nothing unusual in the persistently weak monthly readings of consumer confidence. But what looks surprising, at least on the surface, is the reported high levels of business confidence. After all, non- exporting industries are selling goods and services to domestic households. And generally speaking, pessimistic consumers are bad for businesses because they  reign in spending.
We postulate that a falling saving rate, which has supported consumer spending, has helped to prop up business confidence and profits despite the household sector feeling gloomy and doing it tough. If we are right then the disparity can only persist until the saving rate hits a floor. At which point business confidence is likely to soften without a lift in household income growth. 
Why is business confidence high?
The two headline figures in the NAB Survey that relate to business conditions and confidence have posted strong outcomes in 2017 (chart 2). Business conditions hit a post-GFC high in June. And business confidence, which was a little softer, came in well above its long-run average level. According to the survey, there’s broad-based strength in the numbers because most industries have been performing well.
Some of the recent “hard” data helps to explain why businesses have had a much 
better time than consumers of late. The big lift in national income over the past year has largely been confined to the corporate sector as profits rather than spilling over to employee wages and salaries.
And unit labour costs are low because wage growth is weak (chart 4). This has kept a lid on the single biggest operating cost that businesses face.
Growth in labour market supply has facilitated this.
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Furthermore, the global economy has improved, which provides a boost to demand for Australia’s exporters. What is unusual, however, is that sales growth has been decent while the household sector struggles.
Why is consumer confidence weak?
It’s not hard to see why consumer sentiment is stuck in the pessimistic zone. Our note looking at the Australian economy on a per capita basis spoke to the heart of the matter. Namely that growth in living standards has stagnated and for some sections of the resident population, in particular younger people, it has gone backwards.
The trends in the data on wages (chart 5), real household income per person (chart 6), debt to income, and labour market spare capacity suggest that consumer pessimism is unlikely to lift in the near term. In fact, real wages growth may fall further into the red zone when the sharp lift in electricity prices finds its way into the headline CPI. This will naturally weigh on the consumer.
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Can the saving rate helps to explain the disparity?
The saving patterns of households can be a big driver of economic activity. The proportion of income saved influences household consumption which is worth 57 per cent of GDP.
In Australia, the saving rate1 has been falling since mid- 2012. This means that expenditure growth over that period has outpaced income growth. As chart 7 shows, household consumption growth has been pretty stable in Australia despite falling wages growth because the saving rate has come down.
There are two reasons, broadly speaking, why the saving rate may fall. First, consumers may feel good about the future and their personal finances which means they feel comfortable reducing the amount of income that is saved each period.
Alternatively, the saving rate may be falling so that households can maintain a constant level of consumption in the face of declining income growth.
The evidence suggests that it is the latter situation driving the recent decline in the saving rate. We know this because over the recent past, household income growth has slowed while consumption growth has remained broadly flat. And on top of this, consumer sentiment has been mired in the pessimistic zone all year.
We can therefore infer that businesses, at an aggregate level, have benefited from falling unit labour costs but relatively constant sales growth thanks to a falling household saving rate.
That means stronger profit growth, which lifts business confidence, all else equal. In the context of the above, we now have a better insight into the disparity between consumer and business confidence.
Of course there are other factors like firmer commodity prices which have boosted resources profits. But given the broad-based strength of the NAB business survey we think that the fall in the saving rate has played an important role in explaining the disparity.
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What does it mean for the outlook
If the savings rate stops falling, and it must hit a floor at some point, then household income growth and consumption growth will converge. Some of the consumer pain will then be felt by the business sector unless a meaningful lift in wages growth arrives that can propel consumer spending higher.
We don’t envisage that happening in the near term given the level of spare capacity in the labour market (chart 8).
Historically business confidence tends to be a good gauge of investment intentions. Higher levels of confidence are usually a precursor to a lift in capital spending. In this case, however, the strong confidence and conditions numbers have not generated a commensurate lift in investment. Again, we suspect that the consumer is playing a role here.
Many businesses will be aware that household budgets are stretched and that a falling saving rate has supported consumption. There has also been a lot of coverage recently on the level of debt that the Australian household sector is carrying.
As a result, it may be the case that expectations of future consumer demand are too low to justify a lift in investment at this point in time despite positive levels of confidence and conditions.
The upshot of this means that our monetary policy call looks more aligned with the consumer sentiment figures than what the NAB business survey is suggesting.
As such, we continue to see the RBA on hold well into 2018 despite a more optimistic tone in the July Minutes.
Gareth Aird is economist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905">here</a>.
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Solid gap between business and consumer sentiment: Gareth Aird

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This is the eighth consecutive month where the Index has printed below 100 indicating that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists.
The Index is not sending encouraging signals about the outlook for consumer spending.
Having said that, developments around interest rates during the month could have been much more damaging for confidence than turned out to be the case.
Banks increased rates on ‘interest only’ mortgages while there was considerable media speculation about prospects for rising rates overall.
In the event confidence amongst respondents with mortgages actually rose by 4.8%.
However, the interest rate increases may have contributed to softer reads in some sub-groups with higher exposure to investor housing – sentiment down about 10% in the month for those aged over 55.
The key components of the Index gauging respondents’ assessments of their own financial position were mixed.
The component measuring assessments for family finances relative to a year ago lifted slightly by 1.2% while the component tracking assessments of the outlook for finances over the next 12 months fell by 4.2%.
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Overall however both of these components are down significantly over the year by around 4%. While-ever respondents remain concerned about their own finances prospects for a marked lift in spending patterns will remain remote.
On the other hand there was an improvement in how respondents assess conditions in the labour market.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations fell by 3.1% (a lower number indicates that fewer consumers expect unemployment to rise) but really only recouped the increase we saw in the last month.
Over the last year this Index has remained fairly steady despite the encouraging developments in the stunning employment reports which indicate that 141,000 jobs were added in the three months to May.
Other components of the Index were also mixed.
The ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ sub-index increased by 1.8% while the ‘economic conditions over the next five years’ sub- index fell by 1.5%.
Over the last year, 12 month prospects have increased by a modest 1.1% while 5 year prospects have fallen by 8%.
The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index improved by 4.2% to be up 1.0% over the year.
Conditions in the housing market appear to be stabilising, at least for the time being. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index lifted by 3.1% in the month – the first significant increase we have seen for this year.
Recall that in the first half of 2017 this indicator fell consistently by just over 10%.
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Recent increases in state government assistance for first home buyers appears to have been a big factor in the July rise with the ‘time to buy a dwelling’ sub-index for 25–34 year olds surging 36% in the month.
The outlook for house prices also partially reversed the recent deterioration.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations increased by 8.6% following the cumulative 11.8% fall we saw in the previous two months.
With banks raising some mortgage rates and overall confidence soft it is too early to call a recovery in confidence in the housing market.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on August 1.
Rates will remain on hold.
We continue to predict that the Reserve Bank cash rate will remain on hold throughout the remainder of 2017.
A cautious consumer; a slowing housing market; and a weakening in the labour market with limited prospects of any boost to wages growth all point to another year of steady policy.
Bill Evans is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment remains soft: Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 0.7 percent in April from 99.7 in March to 99.0 in April.
This is a surprising but welcome result.
Since the last survey there has been intense media attention on housing highlighting concerns around affordability and potential price bubbles. Banks have also increased interest rates for some mortgage borrowers.
Reports on the labour market have been disappointing. The unemployment rate was reported to have lifted back to just below 6 percent.
On the international front, markets have been unnerved by the lack of progress shown by the Trump administration in delivering health care; tax; and infrastructure reform. And recently we have seen a heightening of tensions in the Middle East.
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The iron ore price has fallen by 14 percent over the last month while the Australian dollar has pulled back from USD 0.77 to USD 0.75 over the last few weeks.
Arguably these factors could have been expected to produce a marked fall in confidence, particularly around the economic outlook. And indeed the components of the Index relating to the economic outlook have deteriorated.
Individual state issues have also impacted the overall result more than usual. A change of government in Western Australia saw a boost to confidence in the west while higher commodity prices have assisted sentiment in both Queensland and Western Australia.
In addition, speculation around the upcoming Commonwealth Budget has been benign. Accordingly, respondents are more confident about their finances. Contrast this result with April last year when the Index fell by 4% amid nervousness leading into the May Budget.
Any significant negative shocks in the Budget can be expected to render considerable damage to the Confidence Index.
Despite this better than expected result the current level of the Index is hardly encouraging. April marks the fifth consecutive month when the Index has been below 100 – indicating that pessimists are slightly outnumbering optimists.
Confidence around the labour market deteriorated somewhat in April. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations increased by 1.8% from 137.9 to 140.3 (higher readings mean more consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead). This Index has been stuck in a narrow range of 136 to 142 over the last year, well above its long run average of 
130, highlighting the difficulties the Australian economy has had building any positive momentum in the labour market.
There were diverse movements in the components of the Index. There was some encouraging improvement in those components measuring respondents’ assessments around their own finances. The ‘finances versus a year ago’ sub-index lifted by 8.5 percent while the ‘finances next 12 months’ sub-index improved by 2.4 percent. These results contrast with movements in these components in April last year of -3.9 percent and -6.6 percent respectively. At that time there was much more angst about prospects for the upcoming Budget.
On the other hand, expectations for the economy, possibly reflecting prospects for the housing market and global developments, fell. The ‘economic conditions next 12 months’ and ‘economic conditions next 5 years’ sub-indexes fell by 6.5 percent and 2.7 percent respectively.
Consumer attitudes towards spending also fell, the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index down 2.9 percent.
Not surprisingly, confidence in the housing market deteriorated. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell by 3.3 percent to 96.3. This read is 6.2 percent below the average over the last 12 months and 20% below the peak levels seen in early 2015. The fall in April reflected large falls in the two major markets – Sydney and Melbourne – partially offset by solid gains in Brisbane and Perth. Clearly affordability factors were behind this divergent response.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations fell 1.1 percent in April – possibly reflecting additional policies from the regulators aimed at slowing house price appreciation. In that regard it is worth noting that in the year to April 2016, in the aftermath of the previous round of regulatory and interest rate changes the Index fell by 16 percent. Since the Reserve Bank’s rate cuts in May and August 2016 the Index has lifted by 19 percent to be back near previous highs. 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on May 2. The Board is certain to keep rates on hold. As discussed previously the Board is concerned about excessive household leverage which has been boosted by rising house prices. While this concern might be alleviated by a rate hike the real economy is in no shape to deal with higher rates. Considerable spare capacity persists in a stagnant labour market (as indicated by our own index); inflation remains below the Bank’s target zone andis expected to remain at the bottom of the zone; and incomes and confidence are restraining consumption.
The authorities are therefore opting for a policy mix of steady official rates and heightened regulatory controls. As noted with our House Price Expectations Index these regulatory controls, complemented by increases in banks’ rates have been successful in easing conditions in the housing market in the past. 
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Economy in no shape to deal with higher rates: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Despite another modest lift this month consumer sentiment remains below its October-November levels.
At just below 100 the Index is in slightly pessimistic territory with consumers reporting family finances under pressure and a mixed outlook for the economy.
All components of the headline Index improved this month. The sub-index tracking views on ‘family finances vs a year ago’ posted the biggest gain, up 4 percent but coming from a weak starting point after a 10.6 percent slide over the previous three months.
The sub-index tracking expectations for ‘finances over the next 12 months’ has been steadier in recent months, posting a small 1.1 percent gain in February. On a combined basis, consumer views on family finances are still down 6.5% on a year ago and are 5.4 percent below their long run average.
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Consumers are more positive on the economy. Near term expectations posted a solid gain, the ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index up 2.8 percent, recovering all of the ground lost following the surprisingly weak September quarter national accounts. 
Recent commentary from the RBA may have helped ease concerns with the Bank re-affirming it positive growth outlook. Consumers are less convinced about medium term prospects though, the ‘economic conditions, next 5 years’ sub- index posting a milder 1.6 percent gain to be only slightly above its long run average read. 
Consumers are a little more inclined towards making major purchases. The ‘time to buy major household item’ sub-index rose 2.2 percent, building on a 4.9 percent bounce in January to be back near November levels. The rebound is a hopeful sign that the soft patch in retail sales late last year has not extended into 2017. 
While sentiment improved in February, the month saw renewed labour market concerns. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index rose 3.1 percent, the higher read meaning more consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead. 
Notably, consumers are also wary about the outlook for interest rates. In our special question around the outlook for mortgage rates, 60 percent of respondents rates to be higher in 12 months; 35 percent expect rates to be steady; and just 5 percent expect further rate cuts. That compares to just 37 percent expecting higher rates when the question was last run back in August. 
Concerns about potential interest rate increases may have impacted sentiment towards housing. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell sharply, declining 7.8 percent. The index is now at its lowest 
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level since May 2010 when the RBA was near the end of its last tightening cycle. Victoria, Queensland and WA all recorded 10 percent plus declines in the month although the NSW Index remains the weakest across the states. The fall points to a shaky start to the new year for housing markets. 
Most consumers still expect house prices to move higher. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations rose 0.1 percent, holding on to last month’s 11 percent bounce. Over 64 percent of consumers expect price gains over the next 12 months compared to just 39 percent this time last year. In NSW and Victoria, where market conditions and price gains have been strongest, 70–75 percent of consumers expect prices to rise further in 2017 with one in ten expecting double digit price growth. 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on March 7. We expect the Board will again decide to keep the official cash rate on hold. Recent commentary clearly sets out the Bank’s current policy approach. That is, to hold rates steady in anticipation of a gradual lift in growth and inflation while imbalances in the housing market remain contained. We expect this thinking will be sustained throughout 2017, being supported by a rising terms of trade, a peaking construction cycle and a gradually falling unemployment rate with rates remaining on hold. 
We expect a similar policy stance in 2018 despite clear preferences in the market for the beginning of a tightening cycle. Indeed, Westpac’s view of a slowdown to below trend growth pitches the risks to the ‘on hold’ call in 2018 to the downside, in clear contrast to current market views.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/">Westpac</a>.
 
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Consumer sentiment posts modest lift: Matthew Hassan

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The Index continues to hold in a very tight band. Over the last six months the Index has held within the range of 99.1 to 102.4. 
However if you compare the average level during this period with the average over the comparable six month period in 2015 there has been a clear lift in the Index of 4.7 percent. Most of that improvement has been in the components of the Index that measure expectations which are up by an average of 7.3 percent on last year, whereas the components which measure current conditions have increased by only 1.2 percent. 
Developments of note over the month have included weakness in the share market as investors dealt with the uncertainties around the US election (ASX down by 4.4 percent since the October survey); a spectacular surge in coking coal prices (spot prices are up around 150 percent since August); a disappointing jobs report (annual employment growth slowing to 1.4 percent); and an unchanged rate decision from the Reserve Bank. 
Markets had been giving a decent chance to a November rate cut in earlier months so the fall in confidence amongst respondents holding a mortgage of 3.1 percent was somewhat understandable.
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Although down 3.4 percent in the latest month the lift in confidence in Queensland – the ‘Sunshine and Coal’ state – over the year has been spectacular. The Queensland index has lifted by 15.9 percent since last November compared to falls in the other major states – NSW (–2.6 percent); Victoria (–5.4 percent) and WA (–7.2 percent).
Disappointment in the jobs market has been signalled in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations. The Index rose by 1.4 percent from 138.2 to 140.2. It is now up by 2.9 percent over the last six months and slightly above the level a year ago. Recall that higher reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months and hence mark a deterioration.
Four of the five components of the Index fell slightly in the month. Both measures of family finances were down a little – the sub- index tracking views on ‘family finances compared to year ago’ fell by 1.3 percent while the sub-index tracking expectations for finances over the next 12 months fell by 0.8 percent. ‘Economic conditions over the next 12 months’ increased by 0.6 percent but ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ fell by 1.4 percent.
In a slight disappointment for the outlook for Xmas spending there was a 2.4 percent fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index.
In November we traditionally gauge respondents’ Christmas spending intentions. The question is “Do you think that you will spend less, about the same, or more on Christmas gifts compared to last year?” Last year we recorded a net balance – the proportion expecting to spend more minus the proportion expecting to spend less – of minus 13 percent. This year the net balance has declined to minus 20.1 percent. That is around the average since we started asking the question in 2009. That is a disappointing result given the promising improvement in spending plans in 2015.
Confidence in housing has also deteriorated. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell by 5.1 percent from 105.7 in October to 100.3 in November. We saw significant falls in NSW; Victoria; and Queensland.
Despite confidence in housing deteriorating house price expectations continue to rise. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations increased by 1.3 percent to be up 23 percent on a year ago and reach its highest level since July 2015.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 6. There is little chance of any change in rates at this meeting. The key issue is whether the Bank decides to further cut rates in 2017. Whereas lower than expected inflation was the driver of the two cuts in 2016 the decisions in 2017 will be determined by developments in housing and labour markets.
Westpac is expecting economic growth and employment growth to lift in 2017 boosted by higher commodity prices; ongoing strong residential construction; and booming exports. While the pace of house price appreciation can be expected to slow the case for lower rates under those circumstances does not seem to be strong.
We expect rates to remain on hold in 2017. 
 
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment dips a little, Christmas spending plans disappoint: Bill Evans

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GUET OBSERVER
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 1.1 percent in October from 101.4 in September to 102.4 in October. 
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This result extends a remarkable run of stability in the Index. Over the last six months the Index has held within a relatively tight 4 percent range with five of the six readings hovering just above 100 indicating that optimists have remained slightly in the ascendancy. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-12%20at%2010.58.50%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-12%20at%2010.58.50%20AM.png" alt="">
This has been despite some significant local events including two rate cuts from the Reserve Bank; a very close election result and the aftermath of the May Budget. 
International events have hardly been without highlights including the vote by the British people to leave the European Union (‘Brexit’) and a particularly volatile US presidential election. On the other hand anxieties around China have definitely settled down and the prices of Australia’s major commodity exports have been particularly buoyant. 
This stability is signalling a sustained lift in Consumer Sentiment over the last year. The average level of the Index over this last stable six months is now 4.9 percent higher than the average of the same six months a year ago. However that boost is all in expectations. 
The “Current Conditions components of the Index have been steady while the Expectations components of the Index are up 8.1 percent on the previous year. This boost to expectations has been sustained. Certainly there was a 4.4 percent lift following the change of Prime Minister a year ago but the Expectations Index has lifted a further 5.2 percent since last October.
The only disappointing aspect of this story is that the component of the Index which measures how respondents feel about their own finances relative to a year ago has fallen by 2.9 percent (on a six month average basis) whereas the component that tracks their outlook for finances over the next 12 months has lifted by 2.2 percent. 
The largest average boost of the components has been the outlook for the economy over the next 12 months which has lifted by 13.1 percent on a year ago (on a six month average basis). 
Ongoing stability in the labour market has been one likely explanation for the overall boost to confidence. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations dipped from 138.4 to 138.2. The average print for the Index over the last six months is 138.2 – emphasising the stability of the current assessment of the labour market. This average read is 8.0 percent below the average of the same six months a year ago indicating a definite improvement in respondents’ assessments of the conditions in the labour market.
There were generally minimal movements in the components of the Index over the month. The ‘family finances compared to a year ago’ sub-index fell by 0.4% while the ‘family finances over the next 12 months’ sub-index lifted by 0.9 percent. 
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The ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ sub-index lifted by 5.8% while the ‘five year’ outlook was unchanged. 
The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index fell by 0.4 percent but is still up by 9.2 percent over the year. The average reading for this component over the last six months is up 3.3 percent on the average six months reading a year ago. 
Confidence in housing faded in October. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ Index fell by 3.3 percent in October from 105.7 to 109.3. There was a particularly sharp fall in the NSW Index – down by 10.5 percent with the Sydney Index down from 101 to 82.2 (–18.6 percent). However if we consider the average of the ‘time to buy’ index over the last six months relative to the same period a year ago the Index is around 2 percent higher. In the case of the volatile Index in NSW we can see a 14.7 percent improvement while the Sydney index has improved over that period by 34 percent. 
Confidence in house prices continued to improve. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations increased by 1.6 percent in October to be 12.1% above its level in October last year. House price expectations in NSW lifted by 2.6 percent in the month to be 20 percent above the level a year ago. 
There have been solid improvements in expectations across the major states over the year with Victoria up by 6 percent; Queensland by 9 percent and Western Australia by 15 percent. With vacancy rates rising and prices falling in Perth we had been surprised by the resilience in respondents’ expectations for prices in WA although this month we have seen a disturbing 16 percent fall in expectations in one month. 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on November 1. 
A significant number of commentators have been predicting a rate cut in November and a few weeks ago markets had been giving around a 50 percent probability to a move. We were never convinced that the inflation report which is due to be released on October 26 would provide the case for a cut. In fact, with a 0.3 percent reading for the underlying inflation dropping out, it seems likely that the September quarter report will actually show that annual underlying inflation has lifted. 
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It has also become clear that the new Governor will give considerable weighting to ‘financial stability’ in his policy deliberations. With Sydney house prices having been reported to have lifted by 3.5 percent and Melbourne by 5 percent in the last three months the risks of further boosting housing with another rate cut will be a significant consideration for the Board. While the results of today’s report point to some short term deterioration in housing sentiment the longer term picture is clearly still positive.
Indeed while we give little probability to a further rate cut at the next meeting our assessment of the growth outlook, including the shape of the construction cycle, points to rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment stabilises in positive territory: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Consumer Sentiment has been remarkably stable for the last six months. Over that period the Index has averaged 100.3 so today’s reading is just 1.0 percent above this average. 
Indeed the September reading is just 1.7 percent above the average reading over the previous six month period to March as well. 
This stability over the last six months has been despite significant events that can usually be expected to impact confidence: two interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank and associated reductions in mortgage rates; a Commonwealth Budget; a Federal election; and some major developments offshore such as the surprise UK referendum result (‘Brexit’) and the build -up leading into November’s US election. 
In the September survey we have the benefit of respondents nominating those news categories that they most recalled and whether that news was favourable or unfavourable. There have been some important trends that might explain the stability of confidence at a reasonably solid level.
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A year ago the most recalled news items were around ‘economic conditions’ (53.9 percent of respondents) and ‘international events’ (41.8 percent of respondents). Recall on these topics is now down to 21.9 percent and 11.4 percent respectively. Not surprisingly, the news is assessed to be considerably less unfavourable today than last year. Having said that there has been a marginal deterioration in the assessment of domestic economic conditions since June. That move has been more than matched by a significant improvement in the assessment of news on international conditions over the last three months. 
The most recalled news category in September was ‘Budget and taxation’ (26 percent). News on this category has been assessed as more unfavourable than in June but still less unfavourable than a year ago. 
Recall levels for news items on ‘interest rates’ (15.2 percent); ‘employment’ (11.9 percent); and ‘inflation’ (6.4 percent) have been fairly steady over the last year. However for all of these categories, we have seen significant improvements in how news has been viewed. 
That theme of improving assessment of the jobs market is supported by the Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index. This fell from 141.2 in August to 138.4 in September (down 2 percent, recalling that a lower print means fewer respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the year ahead). The Index is now down 11.5 percent over the last year and 10.5 percent since September 2014. The Index was stubbornly high through 2012- 2015 so it is very encouraging that confidence seems to be gradually returning to the jobs market. 
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Confidence in the housing market is improving. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell 2.5% in September from 112.1 in August to 109.3 in September. The Index is still 7.5 percent above its level from a year ago and 4.3 percent above its average for the last six months. Confidence in both the major markets improved over the month. Sydney lifted by 4.0 percent and Melbourne rose by 5.1 percent. 
Confirmation of a continuation of improvements in the housing market was apparent in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index which increased by 3.0 percent for the month to be up by 6.0 percent for the year. Increases were recorded in NSW, Victoria and Queensland. 
There were mixed messages around the components of the Index. Of most significance was a 3.5 percent jump in the sub-index tracking assessments of ‘family finances vs a year ago’. Readers will recall that the Reserve Bank usually highlights this component when discussing its assessment of the consumer in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. Less encouraging was a 2.3 percent fall in the subindex tracking views on ‘family finances over the next 12 months’. While the overall Index is up 8 percent over the last year both ‘family finances’ components are around the same levels. 
Confidence around the economic outlook deteriorated somewhat. The sub-index tracking views on ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ fell by 4.6% while the ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ sub index increased by 1.1 percent. 
The sub-index tracking assessments of ‘time to buy major household Item’ increased by 3.5 percent to now be 16.5 percent up on a year ago. 
In this survey, we also receive information on respondents’ saving preferences .These responses are particularly important for assessing whether there has been a change in risk aversion. Consistent with ‘stability’ in the overall survey we saw little change in saving preferences. Most respondents still see bank deposits as the wisest form of saving (29.9 percent up marginally from 29.5 percent in June). That proportion compares to the 40yr peak of 39% in 2012 when risk aversion was much higher.
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A second measure of risk aversion is the component ‘pay down debt’. That proportion increased from 20.0 percent to 21.0 percent and compares with record high of 27 percent in 2010. However the ‘pay down debt’ component has steadily lifted over the last three years. 
The proportions favouring ‘real estate’ (15.4 percent) and ‘shares’ (8.6 percent) remained steady in September. 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on October 4. This will be the first meeting under the new Governor Lowe. It is extremely unlikely that there will be any change to rates at that meeting. 
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Since the cash rate returned to its historical low of 3% in 2013 all six subsequent cuts have occurred on the meetings in February/ May/August and November when the Bank has a ‘fresh’ print on inflation and is able to communicate any forecast changes in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. That really suggests that the next ‘live’ meeting will be November 1. 
We expect rates will be held steady in November as well. Signs of stability in the real economy, as signalled in this report, point to steady rates being the most appropriate policy. Of course there is always the possibility of a shock from the inflation report on October 26 but both our inflation forecasts and our assessment of current high RBA inertia to moving again this year point to stability in November. 
<a href="/images/2016/09/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-15%20at%208.14.34%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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