Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Consumer Sentiment

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The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 3.6% to 103.3 in December from 99.7 in November.
This is a surprisingly strong result and confirms the lift we have seen in the Index over the last three months. The average reading for the Index in the December quarter is 5% above the average for the September quarter when we saw a disturbing slump in consumer spending. This result is supportive of the view that consumer confidence may have bottomed out during that September quarter.
In turn, growth in consumer spending is likely to have also bottomed out in the September quarter. However, with ongoing weak income growth; a low savings rate; and high debt levels we cannot be confident that consumers have the capacity to sharply lift spending despite higher confidence.
A less threatening outlook for interest rates appears to have boosted confidence. During that September quarter households were spooked by media and many commentators saying that interest rates were likely to start rising in the new year. That effect has now calmed down significantly.
Also supporting a more positive assessment for respondents’ finances is coverage of the government’s recent speculation around possible tax cuts.
With the labour market remaining strong respondents are generally more confident about the domestic economy and there is likely to have been a ‘feelgood effect’ from the passing of marriage equality legislation.
Media coverage of tax cuts in the US combined with easing tensions in North Korea, may also be supporting an improved outlook for international conditions.
All five components of the Index improved in December. Responses on family finances support the assessment around interest rates and tax cuts although it is unlikely that respondents are experiencing any relief in terms of wage increases. The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index posted the biggest gain, rising 5.6% to 89.6 – an 18 month high but still well below the 100 mark indicating more consumers are seeing their finances deteriorate than improve. The forward view continues to be more positive the ‘finances, next 12mths’ sub-index posted a further 1.8% rise to 107.3, the most positive reading in a little over two years.
Views on the economy also posted solid gains, the ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index rose 5% and the ‘economic outlook over the next five years’ sub-index was up 3.4%.
The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index rose 2.8% but at 122.1 remains well below the long run average of 127.5 and still pointing to subdued consumer spending plans for the Christmas period.
The December survey included additional questions on news recall that provide insight into the factors shaping sentiment. Overall, recall levels were again low suggesting consumers are getting less exposure to news in general. The highest recall rates were for news on ‘economic conditions’ (19%); ‘budget and taxation’ (19%); interest rates (19%); inflation (10%); jobs (10%); and international conditions (9%). News on all of these topics was viewed as more favourable than three months ago, with particularly big improvements around international conditions, the economy and interest rates.
Consumers continue to become more comfortable about the outlook for jobs. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index declined 2.4% to 127.6 in December, the index reaching its lowest level since May 2011 (recall that lower reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to fall in the year ahead). The index can be viewed as a measure of consumers’ sense of job security. Qld consumers showed a particularly big improvement in December. Notably, all major states now have index reads below their long run averages, meaning consumer expectations for labour markets are marginally better than average.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index rose 2.3% to 100.6, the first reading over 100 since the start of the year. The state detail continues to show materially weaker reads in NSW (90) and Vic (88) as affordability remains a constraint whereas there are much more positive assessments in Qld (121) and WA (122).
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations edged 0.4% lower to 135. Price expectations continue show a sharp slide in NSW where the state index fell a further 12% in December to be down by 24% over the year. In contrast the Vic index was up 2% for the month and 10% for the year, with Qld and WA posting strong gains in the month (up 8% and 9% respectively). The variations mainly reflect the sharper slowdown in price growth evident in the Sydney market.
Responses to additional questions on the ‘wisest place for savings’ continue to indicate high levels of risk aversion. Nearly two thirds of consumers still favour safe options – deposits, superannuation or paying down debt – with only 12.8% nominating real estate and 8% nominating shares. About the same proportion of consumers favour ‘pay down debt’ (20.4%) as favour real estate and shares combined.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on February 6. As discussed above, markets and general commentary have cooled their fervour for rate hikes in 2018. In turn that has helped boost Consumer Sentiment along with other factors discussed above.
However we doubt whether this welcome lift to confidence will be sufficient to see the Bank achieve its ambitious growth forecast in 2018 of 3.25%. Constraints around incomes; savings; and debt are still likely to keep consumer spending growth below trend.
The Bank’s forecasts for core inflation (1.75% in 2018) and the cooling in the Sydney property market (which is once again apparent in this survey) are also likely to be significant headwinds to higher interest rates.
We confirm our view that the cash rate is likely to remain on hold at 1.5% through 2018.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Time to buy NSW dwelling sentiment weakening: Westpac's Bill Evans

<html><body>
Guest Observer
Consumer expectations for house prices have softened slightly in recent months.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index has fallen about 2.5% between July and Oct, allowing for seasonal fluctuations.
At just over 140, the index still shows price expectations in firmly positive territory, well comfortably above its long run avg of 127.
Of those with a view, nearly 60% expect prices to rise over the next year, 26% expect no change and 15% expect price falls – a net proportion expecting prices to rise of 43%.
Our analysis suggests Oct is a slight seasonal low for expectations (markets tend to cool heading into year end as sellers look to transact before the off season and buyers dry up).
The state breakdown shows a sharper pull back in price expectations in NSW, where the market slowdown has been more pronounced. The shift in expectations suggests the moderation will carry into year end and early 2017.
In contrast, price expectations have continue to rally strongly in WA.
Despite ongoing price slippage in the Perth market, consumer price expectations have swung from clear pessimism to what now looks to be reasonably robust optimism.
While the state market clearly still faces significant headwinds – not least of all a large overhang of vacant dwellings – the sentiment preconditions for a recovery look to be coming into place.
Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2017/October/WestpacRedBookOctober2017.pdf" target="_blank">Westpac Red Book October 2017 (378kb)</a>.
 <img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/The_Red_Book/Red_Book_bites/Redbook-bite-20171023-6.jpg" alt="">
<h2 class="Textspacebefore"> Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
</h2>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Consumer house price expectations soften: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment declined by 1.2 percent in August from 96.6 in July to 95.5 in August. 
The consumer mood has deteriorated over the last year with August marking the ninth consecutive month where pessimists are outnumbering optimists. We have not seen such a succession of weak reads since 2008.
The survey detail suggests increased pressures on family finances; concerns around interest rates; and housing affordability in NSW and Victoria are more than outweighing increased confidence around jobs.
The further weakening in consumer sentiment comes despite some positives leading into this month’s survey. The RBA again opted to leave interest rates unchanged at its August meeting while the Governor sent a clear signal in a recent speech that rates were on hold in the immediate future. Other positives include: a continued improvement in labour market conditions; lower petrol prices (average pump prices down 15c/litre nationally since early June) and a booming Australian dollar, which briefly touched USD 0.80.
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The Index components point to clear pressure on family finances. The sub-index tracking views on ‘finances vs a year ago’ fell 5.1% to 78.1, the lowest level since June 2014, when consumers were shocked by the Abbott government’s first Budget. Much of the weakness is likely to reflect a mix of weak growth in wages; increases in key costs such as electricity and emerging concerns about rising interest rates.
Despite the bleak picture around current finances, consumer expectations are more upbeat. The sub-index tracking expectations for ‘finances over the next 12 months’ firmed 2.1% to 100.4 in August. A reading over 100 indicates that optimists slightly outnumber pessimists. Consumers were also a touch more positive on the economy: the ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index nudged up 0.4%; and the ‘economic conditions, next 5 years’ sub-index posted a stronger 2.3% gain, though coming off a sharp 9.6% drop over the previous two months.
However the weak picture on current finances appears to be affecting consumer attitudes towards major purchases. The ‘time to buy major a household item’ sub-index fell 4.9%, unwinding most of the 6% improvement seen over June- July. Notably, the pull-back has come despite increasingly aggressive price discounting amongst retailers and a likely further improvement in purchasing power from a higher Australian dollar – up over 6c US from its low in May to nearly US 0.80.
Some of the softening in sentiment in August may be a delayed reaction to recent mortgage rate increases – the major banks raised rates on ‘interest only’ mortgages in  late June. After posting a surprisingly firm 4.7 percent rise in July, sentiment amongst consumers with a mortgage fell 6.3 percent in August. Note that despite the increase in ‘interest only’ rates, the average standard variable mortgage rate declined a little between June and August.
Perhaps more importantly, most consumers expect rates to move higher over the next year. Responses to an extra question this month around the outlook for mortgage rates show that, of those consumers with a view, 71 percent expect rates to be higher in 12 months; 27 percent expect rates to be steady; and just 2.6 percent expect further rate cuts. That compares to 60 percent expecting higher rates when the question was last run in February and just 37 percent this time last year.
The one relative bright spot for consumers continues to be around jobs. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index declined 2.6 percent to 132.5 in August  (recall that lower reads mean fewer consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead). The Index is now at its lowest level since November 2011.
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Sentiment around housing improved slightly in August. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index edged 0.8% higher but remained at a low level by historical standards. The detail shows mixed moves across different regions with buyer sentiment falling towards very low levels in Sydney and Melbourne – where affordability pressures remain acute – but surging in Western Australia, where affordability has improved markedly.
Consumer expectations for house prices also firmed slightly overall. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations rose 0.6%, extending last month’s 8.6% bounce. Expectations consolidated in the major eastern states but rose strongly in WA which posted its second strongest reading since late 2014.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on September 5. There is no doubt that the Board will continue to leave the cash rate on hold. The more interesting question is whether, as expected by markets and signalled by consumers’ responses in this survey, the RBA will raise rates next year. High business confidence and improving employment conditions along with the Bank’s own upbeat growth forecasts support the case for higher rates. On the other hand we continue to see evidence of a downbeat consumer and signs that the housing markets are set to slow under the weight of stretched affordability.
Our view is that these factors will slow growth and, along with an inflation rate which remains stubbornly below the Bank’s target zone, will preclude the need for higher rates next year. 
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Softer sentiment amongst consumers with a mortgage fall of 6.3 percent in August: Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Does the falling household saving ratio help to reconcile the disparity in consumer and business confidence?
A solid gap has opened up between business and consumer sentiment.  A falling saving ratio, which has supported household consumption in the face of declining wages growth, looks to be one of the important factors contributing to the disparity in confidence.  It may also help to explain why investment growth is soft despite strong business conditions and confidence.  
Overview
Confidence can be a powerful force. The sentiment of households and businesses regularly plays a role in shaping economic activity. Economists and policymakers often look at measures of reported confidence as forward looking indicators of consumption and investment. Right now, however, the surveys of business and consumer sentiment are sending conflicting signals. 
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A solid gap has opened up between business confidence (and conditions) and consumer sentiment (chart 1). The NAB business survey suggests that business conditions are at their highest level since 2008 while confidence is at an above- average level. In stark contrast, the WBC/MI consumer sentiment report indicates that household confidence is fragile.
In the past, there have been disparities in how consumers and businesses feel. But these divergences tend to be ‘ironed out’ over time and the results converge. This time around the disparity has persisted for an unusually long time.
In this note we attempt to reconcile why business confidence has been so buoyant despite consumers feeling downbeat. On the surface it’s easy to understand why consumers don’t feel good.
Real wages have fallen, household income growth is weak, debt levels are high and the labour market still has plenty of slack in it. As we covered last week, per capita measures of the economy suggest that there hasn’t been a lot a joy for households since the downturn of the mining investment boom.
We won’t go through the details again in this note other than to say that there is nothing unusual in the persistently weak monthly readings of consumer confidence. But what looks surprising, at least on the surface, is the reported high levels of business confidence. After all, non- exporting industries are selling goods and services to domestic households. And generally speaking, pessimistic consumers are bad for businesses because they  reign in spending.
We postulate that a falling saving rate, which has supported consumer spending, has helped to prop up business confidence and profits despite the household sector feeling gloomy and doing it tough. If we are right then the disparity can only persist until the saving rate hits a floor. At which point business confidence is likely to soften without a lift in household income growth. 
Why is business confidence high?
The two headline figures in the NAB Survey that relate to business conditions and confidence have posted strong outcomes in 2017 (chart 2). Business conditions hit a post-GFC high in June. And business confidence, which was a little softer, came in well above its long-run average level. According to the survey, there’s broad-based strength in the numbers because most industries have been performing well.
Some of the recent “hard” data helps to explain why businesses have had a much 
better time than consumers of late. The big lift in national income over the past year has largely been confined to the corporate sector as profits rather than spilling over to employee wages and salaries.
And unit labour costs are low because wage growth is weak (chart 4). This has kept a lid on the single biggest operating cost that businesses face.
Growth in labour market supply has facilitated this.
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Furthermore, the global economy has improved, which provides a boost to demand for Australia’s exporters. What is unusual, however, is that sales growth has been decent while the household sector struggles.
Why is consumer confidence weak?
It’s not hard to see why consumer sentiment is stuck in the pessimistic zone. Our note looking at the Australian economy on a per capita basis spoke to the heart of the matter. Namely that growth in living standards has stagnated and for some sections of the resident population, in particular younger people, it has gone backwards.
The trends in the data on wages (chart 5), real household income per person (chart 6), debt to income, and labour market spare capacity suggest that consumer pessimism is unlikely to lift in the near term. In fact, real wages growth may fall further into the red zone when the sharp lift in electricity prices finds its way into the headline CPI. This will naturally weigh on the consumer.
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Can the saving rate helps to explain the disparity?
The saving patterns of households can be a big driver of economic activity. The proportion of income saved influences household consumption which is worth 57 per cent of GDP.
In Australia, the saving rate1 has been falling since mid- 2012. This means that expenditure growth over that period has outpaced income growth. As chart 7 shows, household consumption growth has been pretty stable in Australia despite falling wages growth because the saving rate has come down.
There are two reasons, broadly speaking, why the saving rate may fall. First, consumers may feel good about the future and their personal finances which means they feel comfortable reducing the amount of income that is saved each period.
Alternatively, the saving rate may be falling so that households can maintain a constant level of consumption in the face of declining income growth.
The evidence suggests that it is the latter situation driving the recent decline in the saving rate. We know this because over the recent past, household income growth has slowed while consumption growth has remained broadly flat. And on top of this, consumer sentiment has been mired in the pessimistic zone all year.
We can therefore infer that businesses, at an aggregate level, have benefited from falling unit labour costs but relatively constant sales growth thanks to a falling household saving rate.
That means stronger profit growth, which lifts business confidence, all else equal. In the context of the above, we now have a better insight into the disparity between consumer and business confidence.
Of course there are other factors like firmer commodity prices which have boosted resources profits. But given the broad-based strength of the NAB business survey we think that the fall in the saving rate has played an important role in explaining the disparity.
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What does it mean for the outlook
If the savings rate stops falling, and it must hit a floor at some point, then household income growth and consumption growth will converge. Some of the consumer pain will then be felt by the business sector unless a meaningful lift in wages growth arrives that can propel consumer spending higher.
We don’t envisage that happening in the near term given the level of spare capacity in the labour market (chart 8).
Historically business confidence tends to be a good gauge of investment intentions. Higher levels of confidence are usually a precursor to a lift in capital spending. In this case, however, the strong confidence and conditions numbers have not generated a commensurate lift in investment. Again, we suspect that the consumer is playing a role here.
Many businesses will be aware that household budgets are stretched and that a falling saving rate has supported consumption. There has also been a lot of coverage recently on the level of debt that the Australian household sector is carrying.
As a result, it may be the case that expectations of future consumer demand are too low to justify a lift in investment at this point in time despite positive levels of confidence and conditions.
The upshot of this means that our monetary policy call looks more aligned with the consumer sentiment figures than what the NAB business survey is suggesting.
As such, we continue to see the RBA on hold well into 2018 despite a more optimistic tone in the July Minutes.
Gareth Aird is economist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905">here</a>.
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Solid gap between business and consumer sentiment: Gareth Aird

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This is the eighth consecutive month where the Index has printed below 100 indicating that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists.
The Index is not sending encouraging signals about the outlook for consumer spending.
Having said that, developments around interest rates during the month could have been much more damaging for confidence than turned out to be the case.
Banks increased rates on ‘interest only’ mortgages while there was considerable media speculation about prospects for rising rates overall.
In the event confidence amongst respondents with mortgages actually rose by 4.8%.
However, the interest rate increases may have contributed to softer reads in some sub-groups with higher exposure to investor housing – sentiment down about 10% in the month for those aged over 55.
The key components of the Index gauging respondents’ assessments of their own financial position were mixed.
The component measuring assessments for family finances relative to a year ago lifted slightly by 1.2% while the component tracking assessments of the outlook for finances over the next 12 months fell by 4.2%.
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Overall however both of these components are down significantly over the year by around 4%. While-ever respondents remain concerned about their own finances prospects for a marked lift in spending patterns will remain remote.
On the other hand there was an improvement in how respondents assess conditions in the labour market.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations fell by 3.1% (a lower number indicates that fewer consumers expect unemployment to rise) but really only recouped the increase we saw in the last month.
Over the last year this Index has remained fairly steady despite the encouraging developments in the stunning employment reports which indicate that 141,000 jobs were added in the three months to May.
Other components of the Index were also mixed.
The ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ sub-index increased by 1.8% while the ‘economic conditions over the next five years’ sub- index fell by 1.5%.
Over the last year, 12 month prospects have increased by a modest 1.1% while 5 year prospects have fallen by 8%.
The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index improved by 4.2% to be up 1.0% over the year.
Conditions in the housing market appear to be stabilising, at least for the time being. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index lifted by 3.1% in the month – the first significant increase we have seen for this year.
Recall that in the first half of 2017 this indicator fell consistently by just over 10%.
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Recent increases in state government assistance for first home buyers appears to have been a big factor in the July rise with the ‘time to buy a dwelling’ sub-index for 25–34 year olds surging 36% in the month.
The outlook for house prices also partially reversed the recent deterioration.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations increased by 8.6% following the cumulative 11.8% fall we saw in the previous two months.
With banks raising some mortgage rates and overall confidence soft it is too early to call a recovery in confidence in the housing market.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on August 1.
Rates will remain on hold.
We continue to predict that the Reserve Bank cash rate will remain on hold throughout the remainder of 2017.
A cautious consumer; a slowing housing market; and a weakening in the labour market with limited prospects of any boost to wages growth all point to another year of steady policy.
Bill Evans is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment remains soft: Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 0.7 percent in April from 99.7 in March to 99.0 in April.
This is a surprising but welcome result.
Since the last survey there has been intense media attention on housing highlighting concerns around affordability and potential price bubbles. Banks have also increased interest rates for some mortgage borrowers.
Reports on the labour market have been disappointing. The unemployment rate was reported to have lifted back to just below 6 percent.
On the international front, markets have been unnerved by the lack of progress shown by the Trump administration in delivering health care; tax; and infrastructure reform. And recently we have seen a heightening of tensions in the Middle East.
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The iron ore price has fallen by 14 percent over the last month while the Australian dollar has pulled back from USD 0.77 to USD 0.75 over the last few weeks.
Arguably these factors could have been expected to produce a marked fall in confidence, particularly around the economic outlook. And indeed the components of the Index relating to the economic outlook have deteriorated.
Individual state issues have also impacted the overall result more than usual. A change of government in Western Australia saw a boost to confidence in the west while higher commodity prices have assisted sentiment in both Queensland and Western Australia.
In addition, speculation around the upcoming Commonwealth Budget has been benign. Accordingly, respondents are more confident about their finances. Contrast this result with April last year when the Index fell by 4% amid nervousness leading into the May Budget.
Any significant negative shocks in the Budget can be expected to render considerable damage to the Confidence Index.
Despite this better than expected result the current level of the Index is hardly encouraging. April marks the fifth consecutive month when the Index has been below 100 – indicating that pessimists are slightly outnumbering optimists.
Confidence around the labour market deteriorated somewhat in April. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations increased by 1.8% from 137.9 to 140.3 (higher readings mean more consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead). This Index has been stuck in a narrow range of 136 to 142 over the last year, well above its long run average of 
130, highlighting the difficulties the Australian economy has had building any positive momentum in the labour market.
There were diverse movements in the components of the Index. There was some encouraging improvement in those components measuring respondents’ assessments around their own finances. The ‘finances versus a year ago’ sub-index lifted by 8.5 percent while the ‘finances next 12 months’ sub-index improved by 2.4 percent. These results contrast with movements in these components in April last year of -3.9 percent and -6.6 percent respectively. At that time there was much more angst about prospects for the upcoming Budget.
On the other hand, expectations for the economy, possibly reflecting prospects for the housing market and global developments, fell. The ‘economic conditions next 12 months’ and ‘economic conditions next 5 years’ sub-indexes fell by 6.5 percent and 2.7 percent respectively.
Consumer attitudes towards spending also fell, the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index down 2.9 percent.
Not surprisingly, confidence in the housing market deteriorated. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell by 3.3 percent to 96.3. This read is 6.2 percent below the average over the last 12 months and 20% below the peak levels seen in early 2015. The fall in April reflected large falls in the two major markets – Sydney and Melbourne – partially offset by solid gains in Brisbane and Perth. Clearly affordability factors were behind this divergent response.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations fell 1.1 percent in April – possibly reflecting additional policies from the regulators aimed at slowing house price appreciation. In that regard it is worth noting that in the year to April 2016, in the aftermath of the previous round of regulatory and interest rate changes the Index fell by 16 percent. Since the Reserve Bank’s rate cuts in May and August 2016 the Index has lifted by 19 percent to be back near previous highs. 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on May 2. The Board is certain to keep rates on hold. As discussed previously the Board is concerned about excessive household leverage which has been boosted by rising house prices. While this concern might be alleviated by a rate hike the real economy is in no shape to deal with higher rates. Considerable spare capacity persists in a stagnant labour market (as indicated by our own index); inflation remains below the Bank’s target zone andis expected to remain at the bottom of the zone; and incomes and confidence are restraining consumption.
The authorities are therefore opting for a policy mix of steady official rates and heightened regulatory controls. As noted with our House Price Expectations Index these regulatory controls, complemented by increases in banks’ rates have been successful in easing conditions in the housing market in the past. 
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Economy in no shape to deal with higher rates: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Despite another modest lift this month consumer sentiment remains below its October-November levels.
At just below 100 the Index is in slightly pessimistic territory with consumers reporting family finances under pressure and a mixed outlook for the economy.
All components of the headline Index improved this month. The sub-index tracking views on ‘family finances vs a year ago’ posted the biggest gain, up 4 percent but coming from a weak starting point after a 10.6 percent slide over the previous three months.
The sub-index tracking expectations for ‘finances over the next 12 months’ has been steadier in recent months, posting a small 1.1 percent gain in February. On a combined basis, consumer views on family finances are still down 6.5% on a year ago and are 5.4 percent below their long run average.
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Consumers are more positive on the economy. Near term expectations posted a solid gain, the ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index up 2.8 percent, recovering all of the ground lost following the surprisingly weak September quarter national accounts. 
Recent commentary from the RBA may have helped ease concerns with the Bank re-affirming it positive growth outlook. Consumers are less convinced about medium term prospects though, the ‘economic conditions, next 5 years’ sub- index posting a milder 1.6 percent gain to be only slightly above its long run average read. 
Consumers are a little more inclined towards making major purchases. The ‘time to buy major household item’ sub-index rose 2.2 percent, building on a 4.9 percent bounce in January to be back near November levels. The rebound is a hopeful sign that the soft patch in retail sales late last year has not extended into 2017. 
While sentiment improved in February, the month saw renewed labour market concerns. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index rose 3.1 percent, the higher read meaning more consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead. 
Notably, consumers are also wary about the outlook for interest rates. In our special question around the outlook for mortgage rates, 60 percent of respondents rates to be higher in 12 months; 35 percent expect rates to be steady; and just 5 percent expect further rate cuts. That compares to just 37 percent expecting higher rates when the question was last run back in August. 
Concerns about potential interest rate increases may have impacted sentiment towards housing. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell sharply, declining 7.8 percent. The index is now at its lowest 
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level since May 2010 when the RBA was near the end of its last tightening cycle. Victoria, Queensland and WA all recorded 10 percent plus declines in the month although the NSW Index remains the weakest across the states. The fall points to a shaky start to the new year for housing markets. 
Most consumers still expect house prices to move higher. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations rose 0.1 percent, holding on to last month’s 11 percent bounce. Over 64 percent of consumers expect price gains over the next 12 months compared to just 39 percent this time last year. In NSW and Victoria, where market conditions and price gains have been strongest, 70–75 percent of consumers expect prices to rise further in 2017 with one in ten expecting double digit price growth. 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on March 7. We expect the Board will again decide to keep the official cash rate on hold. Recent commentary clearly sets out the Bank’s current policy approach. That is, to hold rates steady in anticipation of a gradual lift in growth and inflation while imbalances in the housing market remain contained. We expect this thinking will be sustained throughout 2017, being supported by a rising terms of trade, a peaking construction cycle and a gradually falling unemployment rate with rates remaining on hold. 
We expect a similar policy stance in 2018 despite clear preferences in the market for the beginning of a tightening cycle. Indeed, Westpac’s view of a slowdown to below trend growth pitches the risks to the ‘on hold’ call in 2018 to the downside, in clear contrast to current market views.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/">Westpac</a>.
 
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Consumer sentiment posts modest lift: Matthew Hassan

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The Index continues to hold in a very tight band. Over the last six months the Index has held within the range of 99.1 to 102.4. 
However if you compare the average level during this period with the average over the comparable six month period in 2015 there has been a clear lift in the Index of 4.7 percent. Most of that improvement has been in the components of the Index that measure expectations which are up by an average of 7.3 percent on last year, whereas the components which measure current conditions have increased by only 1.2 percent. 
Developments of note over the month have included weakness in the share market as investors dealt with the uncertainties around the US election (ASX down by 4.4 percent since the October survey); a spectacular surge in coking coal prices (spot prices are up around 150 percent since August); a disappointing jobs report (annual employment growth slowing to 1.4 percent); and an unchanged rate decision from the Reserve Bank. 
Markets had been giving a decent chance to a November rate cut in earlier months so the fall in confidence amongst respondents holding a mortgage of 3.1 percent was somewhat understandable.
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Although down 3.4 percent in the latest month the lift in confidence in Queensland – the ‘Sunshine and Coal’ state – over the year has been spectacular. The Queensland index has lifted by 15.9 percent since last November compared to falls in the other major states – NSW (–2.6 percent); Victoria (–5.4 percent) and WA (–7.2 percent).
Disappointment in the jobs market has been signalled in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations. The Index rose by 1.4 percent from 138.2 to 140.2. It is now up by 2.9 percent over the last six months and slightly above the level a year ago. Recall that higher reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months and hence mark a deterioration.
Four of the five components of the Index fell slightly in the month. Both measures of family finances were down a little – the sub- index tracking views on ‘family finances compared to year ago’ fell by 1.3 percent while the sub-index tracking expectations for finances over the next 12 months fell by 0.8 percent. ‘Economic conditions over the next 12 months’ increased by 0.6 percent but ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ fell by 1.4 percent.
In a slight disappointment for the outlook for Xmas spending there was a 2.4 percent fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index.
In November we traditionally gauge respondents’ Christmas spending intentions. The question is “Do you think that you will spend less, about the same, or more on Christmas gifts compared to last year?” Last year we recorded a net balance – the proportion expecting to spend more minus the proportion expecting to spend less – of minus 13 percent. This year the net balance has declined to minus 20.1 percent. That is around the average since we started asking the question in 2009. That is a disappointing result given the promising improvement in spending plans in 2015.
Confidence in housing has also deteriorated. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell by 5.1 percent from 105.7 in October to 100.3 in November. We saw significant falls in NSW; Victoria; and Queensland.
Despite confidence in housing deteriorating house price expectations continue to rise. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations increased by 1.3 percent to be up 23 percent on a year ago and reach its highest level since July 2015.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 6. There is little chance of any change in rates at this meeting. The key issue is whether the Bank decides to further cut rates in 2017. Whereas lower than expected inflation was the driver of the two cuts in 2016 the decisions in 2017 will be determined by developments in housing and labour markets.
Westpac is expecting economic growth and employment growth to lift in 2017 boosted by higher commodity prices; ongoing strong residential construction; and booming exports. While the pace of house price appreciation can be expected to slow the case for lower rates under those circumstances does not seem to be strong.
We expect rates to remain on hold in 2017. 
 
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment dips a little, Christmas spending plans disappoint: Bill Evans

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GUET OBSERVER
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 1.1 percent in October from 101.4 in September to 102.4 in October. 
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This result extends a remarkable run of stability in the Index. Over the last six months the Index has held within a relatively tight 4 percent range with five of the six readings hovering just above 100 indicating that optimists have remained slightly in the ascendancy. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-12%20at%2010.58.50%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-12%20at%2010.58.50%20AM.png" alt="">
This has been despite some significant local events including two rate cuts from the Reserve Bank; a very close election result and the aftermath of the May Budget. 
International events have hardly been without highlights including the vote by the British people to leave the European Union (‘Brexit’) and a particularly volatile US presidential election. On the other hand anxieties around China have definitely settled down and the prices of Australia’s major commodity exports have been particularly buoyant. 
This stability is signalling a sustained lift in Consumer Sentiment over the last year. The average level of the Index over this last stable six months is now 4.9 percent higher than the average of the same six months a year ago. However that boost is all in expectations. 
The “Current Conditions components of the Index have been steady while the Expectations components of the Index are up 8.1 percent on the previous year. This boost to expectations has been sustained. Certainly there was a 4.4 percent lift following the change of Prime Minister a year ago but the Expectations Index has lifted a further 5.2 percent since last October.
The only disappointing aspect of this story is that the component of the Index which measures how respondents feel about their own finances relative to a year ago has fallen by 2.9 percent (on a six month average basis) whereas the component that tracks their outlook for finances over the next 12 months has lifted by 2.2 percent. 
The largest average boost of the components has been the outlook for the economy over the next 12 months which has lifted by 13.1 percent on a year ago (on a six month average basis). 
Ongoing stability in the labour market has been one likely explanation for the overall boost to confidence. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations dipped from 138.4 to 138.2. The average print for the Index over the last six months is 138.2 – emphasising the stability of the current assessment of the labour market. This average read is 8.0 percent below the average of the same six months a year ago indicating a definite improvement in respondents’ assessments of the conditions in the labour market.
There were generally minimal movements in the components of the Index over the month. The ‘family finances compared to a year ago’ sub-index fell by 0.4% while the ‘family finances over the next 12 months’ sub-index lifted by 0.9 percent. 
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The ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ sub-index lifted by 5.8% while the ‘five year’ outlook was unchanged. 
The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index fell by 0.4 percent but is still up by 9.2 percent over the year. The average reading for this component over the last six months is up 3.3 percent on the average six months reading a year ago. 
Confidence in housing faded in October. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ Index fell by 3.3 percent in October from 105.7 to 109.3. There was a particularly sharp fall in the NSW Index – down by 10.5 percent with the Sydney Index down from 101 to 82.2 (–18.6 percent). However if we consider the average of the ‘time to buy’ index over the last six months relative to the same period a year ago the Index is around 2 percent higher. In the case of the volatile Index in NSW we can see a 14.7 percent improvement while the Sydney index has improved over that period by 34 percent. 
Confidence in house prices continued to improve. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations increased by 1.6 percent in October to be 12.1% above its level in October last year. House price expectations in NSW lifted by 2.6 percent in the month to be 20 percent above the level a year ago. 
There have been solid improvements in expectations across the major states over the year with Victoria up by 6 percent; Queensland by 9 percent and Western Australia by 15 percent. With vacancy rates rising and prices falling in Perth we had been surprised by the resilience in respondents’ expectations for prices in WA although this month we have seen a disturbing 16 percent fall in expectations in one month. 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on November 1. 
A significant number of commentators have been predicting a rate cut in November and a few weeks ago markets had been giving around a 50 percent probability to a move. We were never convinced that the inflation report which is due to be released on October 26 would provide the case for a cut. In fact, with a 0.3 percent reading for the underlying inflation dropping out, it seems likely that the September quarter report will actually show that annual underlying inflation has lifted. 
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It has also become clear that the new Governor will give considerable weighting to ‘financial stability’ in his policy deliberations. With Sydney house prices having been reported to have lifted by 3.5 percent and Melbourne by 5 percent in the last three months the risks of further boosting housing with another rate cut will be a significant consideration for the Board. While the results of today’s report point to some short term deterioration in housing sentiment the longer term picture is clearly still positive.
Indeed while we give little probability to a further rate cut at the next meeting our assessment of the growth outlook, including the shape of the construction cycle, points to rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment stabilises in positive territory: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Consumer Sentiment has been remarkably stable for the last six months. Over that period the Index has averaged 100.3 so today’s reading is just 1.0 percent above this average. 
Indeed the September reading is just 1.7 percent above the average reading over the previous six month period to March as well. 
This stability over the last six months has been despite significant events that can usually be expected to impact confidence: two interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank and associated reductions in mortgage rates; a Commonwealth Budget; a Federal election; and some major developments offshore such as the surprise UK referendum result (‘Brexit’) and the build -up leading into November’s US election. 
In the September survey we have the benefit of respondents nominating those news categories that they most recalled and whether that news was favourable or unfavourable. There have been some important trends that might explain the stability of confidence at a reasonably solid level.
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A year ago the most recalled news items were around ‘economic conditions’ (53.9 percent of respondents) and ‘international events’ (41.8 percent of respondents). Recall on these topics is now down to 21.9 percent and 11.4 percent respectively. Not surprisingly, the news is assessed to be considerably less unfavourable today than last year. Having said that there has been a marginal deterioration in the assessment of domestic economic conditions since June. That move has been more than matched by a significant improvement in the assessment of news on international conditions over the last three months. 
The most recalled news category in September was ‘Budget and taxation’ (26 percent). News on this category has been assessed as more unfavourable than in June but still less unfavourable than a year ago. 
Recall levels for news items on ‘interest rates’ (15.2 percent); ‘employment’ (11.9 percent); and ‘inflation’ (6.4 percent) have been fairly steady over the last year. However for all of these categories, we have seen significant improvements in how news has been viewed. 
That theme of improving assessment of the jobs market is supported by the Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index. This fell from 141.2 in August to 138.4 in September (down 2 percent, recalling that a lower print means fewer respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the year ahead). The Index is now down 11.5 percent over the last year and 10.5 percent since September 2014. The Index was stubbornly high through 2012- 2015 so it is very encouraging that confidence seems to be gradually returning to the jobs market. 
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Confidence in the housing market is improving. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell 2.5% in September from 112.1 in August to 109.3 in September. The Index is still 7.5 percent above its level from a year ago and 4.3 percent above its average for the last six months. Confidence in both the major markets improved over the month. Sydney lifted by 4.0 percent and Melbourne rose by 5.1 percent. 
Confirmation of a continuation of improvements in the housing market was apparent in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index which increased by 3.0 percent for the month to be up by 6.0 percent for the year. Increases were recorded in NSW, Victoria and Queensland. 
There were mixed messages around the components of the Index. Of most significance was a 3.5 percent jump in the sub-index tracking assessments of ‘family finances vs a year ago’. Readers will recall that the Reserve Bank usually highlights this component when discussing its assessment of the consumer in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. Less encouraging was a 2.3 percent fall in the subindex tracking views on ‘family finances over the next 12 months’. While the overall Index is up 8 percent over the last year both ‘family finances’ components are around the same levels. 
Confidence around the economic outlook deteriorated somewhat. The sub-index tracking views on ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ fell by 4.6% while the ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ sub index increased by 1.1 percent. 
The sub-index tracking assessments of ‘time to buy major household Item’ increased by 3.5 percent to now be 16.5 percent up on a year ago. 
In this survey, we also receive information on respondents’ saving preferences .These responses are particularly important for assessing whether there has been a change in risk aversion. Consistent with ‘stability’ in the overall survey we saw little change in saving preferences. Most respondents still see bank deposits as the wisest form of saving (29.9 percent up marginally from 29.5 percent in June). That proportion compares to the 40yr peak of 39% in 2012 when risk aversion was much higher.
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A second measure of risk aversion is the component ‘pay down debt’. That proportion increased from 20.0 percent to 21.0 percent and compares with record high of 27 percent in 2010. However the ‘pay down debt’ component has steadily lifted over the last three years. 
The proportions favouring ‘real estate’ (15.4 percent) and ‘shares’ (8.6 percent) remained steady in September. 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on October 4. This will be the first meeting under the new Governor Lowe. It is extremely unlikely that there will be any change to rates at that meeting. 
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Since the cash rate returned to its historical low of 3% in 2013 all six subsequent cuts have occurred on the meetings in February/ May/August and November when the Bank has a ‘fresh’ print on inflation and is able to communicate any forecast changes in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. That really suggests that the next ‘live’ meeting will be November 1. 
We expect rates will be held steady in November as well. Signs of stability in the real economy, as signalled in this report, point to steady rates being the most appropriate policy. Of course there is always the possibility of a shock from the inflation report on October 26 but both our inflation forecasts and our assessment of current high RBA inertia to moving again this year point to stability in November. 
<a href="/images/2016/09/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-15%20at%208.14.34%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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