Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Consumer Sentiment

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Confidence in the Sydney property market has continued to grow, according to a survey from ME Bank
ME Bank's latest Quarterly Property Sentiment Report, which survey's 1,000 Australians already in the property market, has seen sentiment in the NSW capital soar over the last few quarters.
In the second quarter 2019, only 24 per cent of respondents thought values in the NSW metro area would increase in the next 12 months.
There was a sentiment spike in Q3, but the biggest jump was between Q3 and Q4. Now 57 per cent think values will rise.
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There's similar confidence in the Melbourne area too. 57 per cent of survey participants believe values will rise in the next 12 months.
Andrew Bartolo, ME's general manager home loans, said the past three months have been a critical time for the property market.
“After a period of price declines in Australia’s key property markets, consistent house price increases over the past three months have created a much-needed period of stability, providing more certainty that early price increases weren’t simply a blip in the data.
There wasn't a large spike in sentiment from the first home buyer camp, which Bartolo says suggests the recent house price movements may have marked the end of a unique opportunity to buy ‘at the bottom’.
"The recent uptick in first home buyer activity recorded by the ABS may represent the scramble to get in while they can due to renewed affordability pressures as prices rise," Bartolo noted. 
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“The surge in optimism about houses prices over the past six months reflects just how much the external environment has changed since ME launched its first Quarterly Property Sentiment Report in April. 
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“With a relatively solid spring selling season and a number of months’ worth of house value growth under the belt - according to CoreLogic data - there’s more confidence that the upward trajectory of prices will continue, albeit modest increases.”
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Sydney real estate sentiment continues to rise: ME Bank survey

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This is the lowest level of the Index since July 2015. The Index has fallen by 8.4% since the Reserve Bank started cutting rates in June and is down by 8.6% over the last year.
The fall comes despite a further 25bp cash rate cut from the RBA at its October meeting – the third rate cut since June taking the cash rate to a new historical low of 0.75%.
This result will be of some concern to the monetary authorities. Typically, an interest rate cut boosts confidence particularly around consumers’ expectations for and assessments of their own finances. In this survey these components of the Index fell by 3.7% and 4.9% respectively. This may be because, despite the rate cut, assessments for the economy overall plunged by 6% (the twelve month outlook) and 9.1% (the five year outlook).
Consumers are looking behind the reason for the rate cut and, arguably, the absolute level of rates and getting nervous.
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The Index has now been in the range where pessimists outnumber optimists for three of the last four months. As discussed, the October update marks the lowest read since July 2015, when a sudden 30% plunge in the Chinese share market sparked concerns around the Chinese economy and resulted in a 3.3% fall in the Index. However this was more than reversed by an 8% recovery in the Index in the following month.
Global events have, again, contributed to the weak result in October with the deterioration in US-China trade relations weighing on the global economy amid speculation of a recession in the US. In fact, during the week of the survey the US share market fell by 2.6% and the Australian market was down by 3%.
But these events are unlikely to fully explain the sharp fall in the Index. Issues that may also be unnerving consumers include the debate around the lack of response of fiscal policy to the deteriorating outlook; the banks’ partial (13 to 15 basis points) pass through to the standard variable mortgage rate of the recent official rate cut; and the realisation amongst Australians that wages growth is likely to remain ‘stuck’ at a modest 2%yr or less for the foreseeable future.
All index components recorded material declines in October. Consumer expectations for the economy recorded the biggest falls – the ‘economy, next 5 years’ sub-index plunged 9.1% and the ‘economy, next 12 months’ sub-index dropped by 6%. October marks the first month both sub-indexes have been below their long run average levels since April 2016.
Assessments of family finances also took a heavy knock, the ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index was down by 4.9% and the ‘finances, next 12 months’ sub-index was down by 3.7%, the latter hitting a five year low. Both moves came despite the series of interest rate cuts since June and the LMITO tax relief rolled out since July. Note that despite the cut in the official cash rate confidence amongst respondents with a mortgage dropped by 4%.
While the biggest falls this month were around consumer views on the economy, it is consumer views around family finances that remain the clear weak spot with the combined reading across these two indexes 12 points below its long run average compared to a combined reading across economic sub-indexes that is 3 points below average.
Consumer attitudes towards spending also deteriorated in October. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index declined 4.2%, also moving to a four year low. Spending on discretionary and big ticket durable items has been particularly weak over the last year.
Despite the loss of confidence this month, consumers’ job loss fears improved slightly. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index declined 1.3% to 131.8 in October, holding slightly above the long run average of 130 (recall that lower readings indicate that more consumers expect unemployment to fall in the year ahead). However, the state detail shows the improvement overall was due to sharply improved reads in Queensland and WA offsetting slight deteriorations in NSW and Victoria. Even with the slight improvement the index nationally has still deteriorated by 9% since the middle of the year, consistent with a slowdown in jobs growth and steady increases in unemployment and underemployment rates.
Housing-related sentiment continues to show more mixed results with softer reads on ‘time to buy’ but more bullish expectations for prices suggesting affordability constraints may be starting to re-emerge.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index declined a further 5.4% in October to be down 8.1% from its August peak (a five year high). At 116.6, the index is now below its long run average of 120. NSW and Victoria have shown particularly sharp deterioration, down 12% and 14% respectively since August.
In contrast, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations Index posted a further 5.9% rise in October following the 3.9% rise in September to be up a spectacular 54.4% since May.
Not surprisingly, the state detail on price expectations is the mirror image of the picture from assessments of ‘time to buy’ with the biggest gains over the last two months again coming in NSW (+12.5%) and Vic (+16.6%). More consumers nationally now expect prices to rise than fall – the first ‘net positive’ consensus since mid-2018.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on November 5. Westpac expects the Board will decide to keep the cash rate on hold. Despite this unexpected plunge in the Index the Board is likely to take some time to assess the impact of the three rate cuts before deciding to move again. As we discussed in this report, they will also be alerted to the impact that reductions in the cash rate to well below historical lows may be having on consumers’ assessments of the economy.
In particular, the signals around how consumers are assessing their own finances are worthy of detailed consideration before the Board embarks on its next move.
Westpac expects that next move will be a further cut in the cash rate to 0.5% in February next year although a case can be made for an earlier cut in December depending on developments in the labour market and the global economy.
While we expect the Bank will also be studying various types of unconventional monetary policy measures it is to be hoped that the signals from this survey highlight the possible unintended consequences that may result from the option of resorting to negative interest rates.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac.
This article was first published on <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/40598/14186/" target="_blank">Westpac IQ</a>.
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Consumer sentiment drops to four year low: Westpac's Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In Australia we saw the release of consumer and business surveys for August/September. Offshore, the ECB’s well telegraphed announcement of new stimulus largely met expectations.
As we saw in last week’s June quarter GDP report, the Australian economy is navigating a period of cyclical weakness. The question going forward is to what extent recent RBA rate cuts and tax offset receipts support the economy in the second half of 2019 and into 2020. Disappointingly, the private sector surveys released this week are yet to show any response.
Starting with the NAB Business Survey, not only was there an absence of a bounce, both conditions and confidence slipped further in August and remain at below average levels. Conditions declined 2pts to +1 – the softest result since 2014 – and confidence was down 3pts to +1. While employment conditions rose 2pts to +2 in the month, the trend is clearly moving lower. That stands in contrast to ABS employment growth figures which have held robust to July – the August update to be released next week.
Dour business sentiment was also echoed in the Q3 release of our Australian Chamber-Westpac survey of industrial trends. The Westpac–AusChamber Actual Composite index fell sharply to 52.9 in September from 61.5 in June, continuing the weakening trend seen since mid-2018.
Similarly for the household sector, our Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment survey lapsed back into slight negative territory again, down to 98.2 in September from 100 in August. The survey contained additional questions on the new tax offset payments received from July 1 for the 2018/19 financial year. Just over 16% of consumers reported receiving a payment. Amongst that cohort, 29% planned to spend it all, and a further 16% planned to spend over half. The remainder (53%) planned to spend less than half including around 25% who planned to save the full payment. Yet, perhaps the most telling indicator of the impact of the new stimulus (or lack thereof) is our regular ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index which declined 2.5% to a well below average 84.3.
The sombre consumer mood stands in contrast to further affirmation that the residential property market is stabilising. This week’s release of July housing finance approvals showed the total value of finance up 5.1%. That is broadly consistent with the improvement in auction activity and prices seen through June to August.
It therefore appears that concerns about the state of the domestic economy, broader international conditions and employment are having a more dominant effect on the consumer mindset. New stimulus measures may need more time to have an effect, but at this stage, overall data are still painting a soft economic backdrop.
As such, we continue to believe the RBA is set to deliver 25bp cuts in October and February. Our RBA forecast is explained in our September Market Outlook released this week which covers our broader view on Australian and global economies, FX, rates and commodities.
Of note in this month’s edition is an update to our US forecast. As announced last Friday, we now expect in addition to our previous forecast of FOMC cuts in September, October and December, a further two cuts in March and June, taking the federal funds rate to 0.875%.
In that respect, Thursday’s ECB meeting offered an interesting prelude to next week’s FOMC meeting.
The ECB cut the deposit rate 10bps to -0.5%, moved to a tiered reserve system (for each bank, a multiple of six times minimum reserves will be exempt from the deposit rate charge and instead receive a juicy 0.0%), restarted asset purchases (€20bn per month pace and will persist for as long as necessary), repriced TLTRO's (cheap bank loans incentive rate 10bps cheaper at -0.5%), and strengthened forward guidance.
All up, the stimulus package broadly came in line with our own expectation. We did not anticipate the repricing of TLTRO-III but had expected a larger €40bn per month asset purchase program. We continue to believe the program will be lifted to that pace in 2020 and the deposit rate will be reduced to a low of -0.7%.
As we had seen going into the meeting, not all ECB members agree with the new stimulus, with some of the opinion that economic conditions were not weak enough to warrant restarting asset purchases. Draghi’s time as ECB president has faced significant criticism from within the ECB, and more recently, ire from US President Trump (who once again reiterated his belief that the ECB are targeting the exchange rate). But at his last meeting, Draghi did get a unanimous agreement that fiscal policy should be the main instrument going forward.
Finally, to finish on a more upbeat note, we did at least see some tentative positive developments this week in regards to the US-China trade war and, to some extent, Brexit.
The trade situation calmed down a notch after China released a list of goods that will be exempted from the retaliatory tariff on US imports. In return, the US offered a good will gesture by delaying the scheduled 25% to 30% tariff increase on $250bn of imports by two weeks to October 15.
With Brexit, we saw the Benn bill become law. This will effectively force PM Johnson to request a three month extension to the exit deadline unless a deal is found before October 19. Following that, the Government made a second attempt to call a general election, but once again, failed. Parliament is now suspended to October 14.
ELLIOT CLARKE is a senior economist at Westpac.
SIMON MURRAY is an economist at Westpac
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No signs yet of a rebound in consumer or business sentiment: Westpac 

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The consumer mood has lapsed back into slight negative territory again with continued pressure on family finances and concerns about the near term outlook weighing on sentiment.
The September survey included additional questions on the tax offset payments the Federal government began making with tax refunds from July 1. Just over 16% of consumers reported receiving a payment.
We estimate that around 30% of households are likely to receive a meaningful rebate so this survey indicates that about half of eligible consumers have already received a payment.
Amongst those that had received a payment, 29% planned to spend it all, and a further 16% planned to spend over half. The remainder (53%) planned to spend less than half including around 25% who planned to save the full payment.
Responses to additional questions on news recall show rising concerns about the economy and the global backdrop. The highest recall for the month was news on ‘economic conditions’ (33%) and ‘international conditions’ (19.8%) – the latter hitting a four year high.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/consumer%20sentiment%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/consumer%20sentiment%201.jpg" alt="">
 
These proportions are up significantly from a year ago (20.5% and 8.3% respectively). News on both was widely assessed as more unfavourable, with the proportion reporting ‘unfavourable’ doubling over the year. There was a comparable lift in the proportion reporting employment news as ‘unfavourable’ as well.
These concerns about the state of the economy; the international backdrop; and employment are seeing consumers become more cautious about their finances. The sub-index tracking expectations for ‘finances, next 12 months’ declined 2.2% to be down 9.4% since June and at a four year low.
The sub-group detail suggests a range of factors may be contributing including concerns around jobs, persistent weak wages growth and low returns on financial assets weighing on sentiment amongst those at or nearing retirement age.
Consumer assessments of current finances also deteriorated slightly. The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index declined 2.5% to 84.3. While that is above the low of 80.2 registered back in April, it is still a weak read, below long run averages.
It is particularly disappointing given the support that should be coming from the combined effect of policy – interest rate cuts and tax relief – and from stabilising housing markets.
A weaker near term outlook for the economy has also weighed on sentiment. The ‘economy, next 12 months’ sub-index is down 3.1% The disappointing June quarter national accounts update – released in the middle of the survey week – undoubtedly had an effect.
The report showed annual growth slowing to just 1.4%yr, the weakest pace since the GFC. Despite this, expectations for the economy are still comfortably above their July low, when the RBA’s back to back rate cuts appear to have badly rattled consumers.
Interestingly, consumers’ longer term expectations for the economy have been both steadier and more positive.
The ‘economy, next 5 years’ sub-index was the only component to post a rise this month, up 2.1% and up 6.7% since July to a level still comfortably above its long run average. That may be an indication that some of the difficulties currently facing the economy are expected to dissipate over time.
Consumer attitudes towards spending dipped in September. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index declined 2.8%, unwinding all of last month’s modest gain and taking the sub-index well below its long run average again. Spending on discretionary and big ticket durable items has been particularly weak over the last year.
Consumers’ job loss fears remained slightly elevated. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index was essentially unchanged, holding at 133.5 in September, a touch above the long run average of 130 (recall that higher readings indicate that more consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead).
The Index remains about 10% above the levels prevailing late last year, a clear sign of cooling conditions in the labour market.
Housing-related sentiment recorded a more mixed month after the clear positive response to interest rate cuts seen in June-July-August.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index declined 2.9%, reversing most of last month’s gain. At 123.3, the index is still above its long run average of 120 and near a five year high. That said, the sizeable 7-8% declines in Sydney and Melbourne suggest the nascent recovery in prices in these markets may already be starting to dampen buyer enthusiasm.
In contrast, consumers’ house price expectations have continued to firm. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations Index posted a further 3.9% in September to be up a spectacular 45.8% since May. All major states recorded a lift in price expectations this month. Expectations posted a particularly strong 6.7% gain in NSW.
Responses to additional questions on the ‘wisest place for savings’ show a slight easing in risk aversion although it remains very high by historical standards. Consumers still heavily favour ‘safe options’, 61% nominating deposits, superannuation or paying down debt as the best place for savings, compared to 64% in June.
The proportion favouring real estate nudged up, but only slightly from 10% to 12% and the proportion favouring shares dipped slightly from 10% to 9%. Perhaps most tellingly, some 9% of consumers simply nominated ‘don’t know’ – the highest reading on records going back to 1974.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on October 1. Westpac expects the Board will decide to cut the cash rate by a further 0.25% from 1% to 0.75%.
In August the Reserve Bank released a revised set of forecasts which showed a downgraded outlook for the unemployment rate; a further extension to the time when the inflation rate is expected to move into the 2-3% band; and a downward revision to the outlook for wages growth.
All of these forecasts were based on ‘market pricing’ for the interest rate path at the time which included one more rate cut in 2019 and a second move in early 2020.
Month to month timing of RBA moves is imprecise but with the case for lower rates quite clear and both US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank likely to be easing policy in the next week or so the next meeting in October seems a sensible time for the Reserve Bank to deliver the next rate cut.
Westpac expects a second cut in February 2020, which we believe will follow further cuts from the Federal Reserve by year’s end.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/consumer%20sentiment%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/consumer%20sentiment%202.jpg" alt="">
Read full report '<a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/September/er20190911BullConsumerSentiment.pdf" target="_blank">Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment September' (PDF 128klb)</a>
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac
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Sydney and Melbourne's nascent recovery may already be starting to dampen buyer enthusiasm: Bill Evans 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Housing-related sentiment has improved but part of the gain looks to be based on an expected further lowering in rates.
Our <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/WestpacHousingPulseAugust2019.pdf" target="_blank">latest Housing Pulse report</a> finds sentiment-based measures giving the most positive signal in over five years. However, a sustained lift in demand has yet to be confirmed and there remain important caveats. In particular much of the lift looks to be based on an expected further improvement in affordability that may not materialise if prices start rising again or if the RBA disappoints on expected rate cuts.
Interest rate expectations have seen a big shift over the last year. Back in Aug 2018 most consumers expected rates to be higher by now. That hawkishness evaporated in Feb following a clear signal from the RBA that rates were more likely to fall than rise. The Bank followed up with two 25bp cuts in June and July, indicating that it is prepared to cut further “if needed”. Accordingly, most consumers now expect rates to be the same or lower in a year’s time with markets and economists expecting rates to be about 50bps lower.
Our August update of an additional question on consumer expectations for mortgage rates. The simplest summary measure – the net % expecting rates to rise – declined to 9.8 from 38.7 in Feb, 50.4 in Aug last year and a peak of 68.2 in Aug 2017. The latest read is a touch below the 9.9 in Aug 2016 and the least hawkish/most dovish since late 2011.
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The history of this question, which has been run since 2010, shows a clear ‘upward bias’. Adjusting for this the latest reading looks to be consistent with about a 45bp decline in rates over the next year. That would place the consumer reading as slightly less dovish than current market pricing which has 60bps in RBA cuts priced in by this time next year but more in line with that of economists. For the record, Westpac expects the RBA to cut rates by 50bps over the next year, with two moves likely coming in Oct and Feb (see <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/July/er20190724BullRBACashRate.pdf">here</a> for more).
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Housing sentiment at its most positive in over 5 years: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The most recent consumer sentiment result comes as somewhat of a surprise given that the survey was conducted against a turbulent backdrop with global financial markets roiled by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, the ASX down 3.4% and the AUD off 3c US since the July survey.
However, the result does come in the aftermath of an unexpected 4.7% fall in the Index in June/July that came despite consecutive rate cuts from the RBA and the restoration of political certainty following the May Federal election.
At the time, particularly following the July fall of 4%, we speculated that households may have been unnerved by the unusual sequence of consecutive rate reductions, implying that there might be some alarming drop in confidence in official circles around the economic outlook.
Realising that lower rates are in the offing but that there is no need for further consecutive changes might be a more encouraging signal for households than a rapid sequence of rate cuts.
Indeed part of the gain is consistent with firming expectations for additional interest rate cuts. The RBA left rates on hold at its August meeting, pausing after the two cuts in June and July but retained a clear easing bias.
The media and economic forecasters now expect a further lowering in the official cash rate in coming months.
This is influencing consumer views. Responses to an additional question on expectations for mortgage interest rates, run every six months, show just 31% expect rates to be higher in a year’s time compared to 43% when the question was last run in February and 50% this time a year ago.
This is the most dovish mix of responses seen since mid-2012 when the RBA was moving through a significant policy easing cycle.
This less alarmist but nevertheless confident view on interest rates appears to have calmed expectations for the economic outlook.
The sub-index tracking expectations for the ‘economy, next 12 months’ rallied 9.6% in August, reversing most of last month’s 12.3% slump but still down 8.3% since May.
Longer term expectations for the economy also recovered, the ‘economy, next 5 years’ sub-index rising 4.5% after recording a 6.7% fall last month.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/14/consumer%20sentiment%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/14/consumer%20sentiment%20.jpg" alt="">
Views around family finances have shown a more muted improvement. The sub-index tracking consumers’ expectations for ‘finances, next 12 months’ rose 0.7% but remained in slightly pessimistic territory.
The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index lifted 0.9% to a five month high, although at 86.5, the sub-index remains at weak levels overall.
The muted gains are despite further signs of improvement in Australia’s housing market and the “Federal government’s tax relief which may be starting to see cash flow to some households.
Spending attitudes showed a firmer gain, the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index is up 2.8% in August to the highest level in over a year.
A major influence on the near term economic outlook is going to be the mix between spending and saving as households receive their increased tax rebates. With sentiment flat and households remaining risk averse we expect consumers to favour saving over spending so this lift in ‘time to buy’ is an encouraging sign for retailers.
Consumers’ job loss fears eased slightly in August. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index improved slightly recording a 0.8% decline to 133.3 (recall that lower readings indicate that more consumers expect unemployment to fall in the year ahead).
While the Index is around its long run average level, it has risen 10.3% since May, a significant deterioration from what were consistently better than average readings seen over the six months to February.
Housing-related sentiment continues to show a clear positive response to lower interest rates with assessments of both ‘time to buy’ and house price expectations recording further gains in August.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index rose 3.0% to 126.9, comfortably above the long run average of 120 and the highest level since early 2014.
Sydney and Melbourne continue to lead the turnaround although buyer sentiment posted particularly strong gains in WA and SA this month.
Buyer sentiment has been notably softer in Queensland, the state index down 6.4% this month and down 11.6% on a year ago.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations Index posted a solid 5.1% increase. At 125.4, the Index is up 40% since May and back on a par with levels in mid-2018, although still 18% below its previous peak in March 2017. All major states recorded a lift in price expectations this month.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on September 3. Westpac expects that the Board will decide to keep rates on hold in September before cutting rates by another 25bps at the October meeting with a final 25bp move taking the cash rate to 0.5% in February.
Signals from the RBA are quite clear. In its recent Statement on Monetary Policy the RBA lowered its forecasts for inflation, wages and growth, while lifting its forecasts for the unemployment rate. Those forecasts were despite basing them on the technical assumption of adopting market pricing, which anticipates two more rate cuts.
Accordingly we feel reasonably comfortable that the RBA Board will be cutting rates at least twice more in this cycle.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/14/consumer%20sentiment%20aug%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/14/consumer%20sentiment%20aug%20.jpg" alt="">
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac.
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August house price and consumer sentiment bounce back: Bill Evans 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While the month to month rise in sentiment is fairly muted, the survey detail suggests the Budget was well-received.
Sentiment over the course of the week showed a clear boost, with sentiment amongst those surveyed post-Budget 7.7% higher than sentiment amongst those surveyed prebudget – the most positive turnaround since we began tracking pre and post Budget responses in 2011.
The key issue will be whether this boost from the Budget is sustained. Certainly the ‘pre Budget’ print of 96.8 showed a further deterioration in sentiment from the previous print of 98.8, despite what was already quite a sharp 4.8% fall in March.
Persistent weak wages growth; falling house prices; and the perceived rising cost of living are all weighing on consumers.
This is best captured in the component of the Index – ‘family finances compared to a year ago’ – which declined 4.9% in April (showing little movement between pre and post Budget responses) and is down 9.6% on a year ago.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/10/Sent1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/10/Sent1.jpg" alt="">
That compares to the headline Index which is only down by 1.6% over the same period. The month’s survey included an additional question asking consumers about the impact they expect the Budget to have on their finances over the next 12 months. Responses again suggest the 2019 Budget was well-received. Around 15% of consumers expected it to improve their finances; 51% expected no change; and 22% expected it to worsen their finances.
While the overall balance is negative, consumers appear to carry a consistent negative view around budget assessments. At –8.5% the net improve/worsen reading is less negative than last year’s net –10.4% and easily the ‘best’ response we have seen since we began running this question in 2010 (the average reading being –26.6%).
Tax relief was again a key feature of this year’s Federal Budget with new measures building on the seven–year personal income tax plan announced last year.
The main near term measures are clearly targeted at ‘low and middle income earners’. Accordingly it is no surprise that sentiment showed more positive responses amongst consumers in these income groups – both the post-Budget lift and assessed impact on family finances were markedly more positive amongst consumers with incomes in the $60–100k a year range.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/10/Sent2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/10/Sent2.jpg" alt="">
Other factors that may have impacted sentiment in April include: a continued lift in the ASX, now up nearly 10% from its late 2018 levels; but negatives around petrol prices (average pump prices nationally up 18¢/litre since early February) and continued declines in house prices.
The month to month gain in sentiment was driven by a solid rise in expectations for the economy and family finances with some offsetting drag from weaker assessments around current finances and ‘time to buy a major household item’. 10 April 2019 
The Budget appeared to shore up confidence around the economy, which has had a shaky start to the year with choppy reads in the previous three months.
The ‘economic outlook, next 12 months’ sub-index rose 6.2% in April, regaining most of the ground lost in March.
The ‘economic outlook, next five years’ sub-index also rose 5.9%, retracing all of the previous month’s decline. Both sub-indexes are again in net positive territory above 100 and well above long run averages. Consumer views on family finances were much more mixed.
The ‘finances next 12 months’ sub-index posted a solid 4.1% lift, no doubt reflecting the tax measures at the centre of this year’s Budget. However, as discussed, the sub-index tracking assessments of ‘finances vs a year ago’ posted a sharp 4.9% decline in April to be down 9.6% on a year ago and at its lowest level since August 2017.
Attitudes towards spending also cooled notably with the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index declining 2.0% to 115.5 in April (despite a 10.5% post-Budget lift). While that is still a positive read, it is below the levels seen a year ago and well below the long run average of 127. The readings around both current finances and ‘time to buy a major item’ remain consistent with the weak consumer spending growth seen through the second half of 2018.
Renewed confidence around the economy eased job loss fears a little in April. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index recorded a 2.5% decline, retracing part of last month’s sharp 8.9% jump. Recall that lower readings indicate that fewer consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead. At 127.4 the index is back below the long run average of 130”. Sentiment around housing improved in April. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index rose a further 2.4% to 119.4 in April, a four year high.
The index has now risen 33% from its mid-2017 low and is back around its long run average of 120. Improving affordability continues to see a lift in buyer sentiment in NSW and Victoria although in both cases there is still some way to go before buyer sentiment returns to long run average levels.
More surprisingly, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations posted a strong 11.9% rise to 95.6 in April, boosted by a sharp increase in New South Wales.
The Index is coming off a March reading that was the lowest level since we began compiling this index in 2009. The Reserve Bank Board next meets on May 7.
The Governor’s Statement following the April meeting saw a change in the wording of the key final paragraph. From our perspective, that change indicated a more flexible approach to interest rate policy than the ‘on hold’ stance we have seen since September 2016. The Board meeting in May will consider the staff’s revised growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020.
We expect these to be markedly lower than when last reported in February with growth tracking around or below potential. In those circumstances it is reasonable to expect the Board to move to a more formal easing bias in preparation for the first rate cut, which we expect to be delivered in August.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
 
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Westpac consumer sentiment shows the Budget has been well received

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
The deepening market downturn is starting to weigh more heavily on consumer sentiment towards housing. Both the complexion of this impact and the extent to which market weakening has outstripped weakness in housing-related sentiment provide important clues about some of the dynamics at play.
Consumers’ housing-related sentiment has deteriorated since November with negatives around price expectations and elevated risk aversion more than offsetting the boost from improving affordability. While sentiment overall is downbeat, the market performance has been markedly weaker than sentiment over the last year, suggesting that other factors are impacting. In particular, a tightening in loan standards from some lenders may have compounded what were already negative market dynamics following a drop in investor activity and initial price correction.
Nationally, the Westpac Melbourne Institute ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index has slipped 1.8% since November but is still up 8.6% year on year. Improving affordability continues to see a lift in NSW and Vic, the latter reaching a five year high in Feb. However buyer sentiment is still sub-par in these states while it has become a little more unsettled in other states.
Price expectations have been the big mover. The Westpac–MI Consumer House Price Expectations Index posted a sharp 11% drop over the three months to February, hitting a new historical low since we began compiling the index in May 2009. Weakness remains more pronounced in NSW and Vic, with just over half of consumers in these states expecting prices to be lower in a year’s time. That said, the more positive views in other states are also starting to show signs of softening with notable pull backs in Qld and WA.
These two aspects of housing-related sentiment highlight the ‘dynamics’ of the housing cycle. Price declines are currently dominating with negative expectations around prices likely to continue feeding into investor weakness and encourage buyers to delay purchases. At some point though, improving affordability should generate a bigger lift in buyer sentiment and a pick-up in demand that stabilises the market – exactly where that point is and how we get there remain more open questions.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/2019-02/Housing-pulse-bite-2019-02-1.jpg" alt="">
Matthew Hassan is senior economist at Westpac. 
Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/February/WestpacHousingPulseFebruary2019.pdf" target="_blank">Westpac Housing Pulse</a>. 
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What consumer sentiment is telling us about the housing downturn: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In the latest March quarter survey only 8.8 per cent of respondents thought the ‘wisest’ place to put new savings was in ‘real estate’ – a record 46-year low.
The ‘wisest’ place for savings remains bank deposits (28.8 per cent of respondents) from ‘pay debt’ (26.3 per cent).
 Consumer confidence: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment index fell by 4.8 per cent to 98.8 in March after rising by 4.3 per cent to 103.8 points in February.
The sentiment index is back below its long-term average of 101.3.The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focused businesses.
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What does it all mean?
Aussie consumers remain super-conservative. When asked what was the wisest place to put new savings, ‘bank deposits’ and ‘paying-off debt’ were ranked number one and two. Understandably with home prices falling, real estate didn’t feature in the top places for new savings. In fact the result for ‘real estate’ was the lowest since the survey began in 1973.
Aussie consumers aren’t confronted with a lot of financial news in the mainstream media nowadays. But when it is published it tends to be bad news. Last week consumers would have heard that the Australian economy slowed in the December quarter, that the Australian dollar had fallen to US70 cents, and that retail sales rose modestly in January. 
There was speculation about rate cuts. Understandably this was picked up in the ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence index yesterday and today’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey. Confidence does bounce from week-to-week and month-to-month. Before the latest drop, Aussie confidence levels were actually above longer-term averages.
Westpac noted: “Responses over the survey week show a marked drop-off after the national accounts update. Those collected before the March 6 release had a combined index read of 100.7. Those collected after the release had a combined read of 92.7, an 8 per cent fall.”
If consumers are pessimistic, they may reduce spending. But much depends on the strength of the job market (at present, it is quite strong) and consumer prices (inflation rate is low). So it is a case of being alert and not alarmed.
The good news is that more homebuyers believe that now is a good time to buy a home. The index is at 5-year highs, up 30 per cent from the mid 2017 low.
What do the figures show?
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment index fell by 4.8 per cent to 98.8 in March after rising by 4.3 per cent to 103.8 points in February. The sentiment index is back below its long-term average of 101.3. A reading above 100 denotes optimism. The survey of 1,200 people was conducted from March 4-8.
The current conditions index fell by 2.8 per cent and the expectations index fell by 6.2 per cent.
All five of the components of the index fell in March after all rose in February:
<ul>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago fell by 5.6 per cent to 84.4;</li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year fell by 5.9 per cent to 107.8;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months fell by 7.0 per cent to 101.4;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years fell by 5.5 per cent to 94.6;</li>
<li>The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item fell by 0.6 per cent to 117.9.</li>
</ul>
Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? The index rose 3.5 per cent to 112.7, and was up 11.5 per cent on the year. House price expectations fell by 2.7 per cent to 85.4 and were down by 34.1 per cent on a year ago.
Unemployment expectations: Unemployment expectations rose by 8.9 per cent to 130.6 in March to be up by 7.2 per cent over the year.
Wisest place for savings: On the question of the ‘wisest place for savings’, banks (28.8 per cent) led the way from paying down debt (26.3 per cent). Only 8.8 per cent of respondents selected real estate while 7.5 per cent nominated shares. Overall a record 51.7 per cent suggested choices for putting savings other than traditional real estate, bank deposits, building society deposits, bonds or shares.
What is the importance of the economic data?
Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the Index of Consumer Sentiment each month. According to Melbourne Institute: “The survey of consumer sentiment was first undertaken in 1973 and was conducted on a quarterly basis until 1976, a six-weekly basis from 1976 to 1986, and has been conducted monthly ever since.” Confident consumers may be more inclined to spend, especially on major items.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Consumer confidence ebbs and flows over time, but the job market remains in strong shape. Provided unemployment remains low, job opportunities abound and wages tilt higher then consumers will continue to embrace ‘retail therapy’.
Consumers may currently prefer to put savings in other places than real estate but that could be about to change. The reading on whether it was a good time to buy a home has lifted to 4-year highs. Low interest rates, softer home prices and a strong job market are a heady mix of positive influences, balanced against a raft of new housing supply in the process of hitting markets.
CommSec doesn’t expect a change in official interest rates for the foreseeable future.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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Real estate sentiment hits 46-year low: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Despite the material correction in housing markets, residential property investors remain markedly more optimistic than non-investors.
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Investors sit front and centre in the housing market correction currently unfolding in Australia. For the first time, the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey provides some insight into who this segment is and how they are assessing things.
An additional classification question added to the survey in Dec now allows us to separately identify consumers that own residential investment properties. The first results show an interesting breakdown on both the characteristics of this sub-group and their sentiment – the latter of particular interest given both the investor-driven housing market downturn and associated concerns about potential ‘wealth effect’ spillovers to demand.
At the aggregate level, 18.7% of respondents reported owning a residential investment property, broadly in line with official statistics.
Consumers in NSW, WA and Vic were slightly more likely to be housing investors while those in Qld showed the lowest incidence (15%). Not surprisingly the share of investors rises steadily across age groups, peaking at 27% for those aged 55-64, dropping back sharply to 14% for those over 65 (noting that this group is less likely to be accessing the tax benefits of negative gearing).
Again in line with the official statistics, the incidence of investor housing ownership is higher for those on high incomes (31%) and amongst consumers that are owner occupiers (24%). So-called ‘rentvesters’ account for just 7% of tenants.
Turning to the sentiment readings, housing investors are markedly more optimistic than non investors with an average sentiment read over Dec-Jan of 114.7 vs 101 for non investors and 103.7 for all consumers.
Note that this does not appear to be a by-product of income differences – across every income band, housing investors have more positive sentiment reads than non investors.
The positive spread is across all index components but is most pronounced for ‘finances vs a year ago’ (+16pts) and least pronounced for ‘finances, next 12mths’ (+6pts) – an intriguing mix that suggests investors have been unperturbed by price falls over the last year but that expectations of further declines may be curbing optimism for the year ahead.
On housing, investors are more positive on ‘time to buy’ but more negative on the price outlook. They also view ‘real estate’ more favourably as the ‘wisest place for savings’, particularly compared to ‘deposits’, but are slightly more inclined towards repaying debt than non investors.
Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/January/WestpacRedBookJanuary2019.pdf" target="_blank">'Red Book January 2019' (PDF 453kb)</a>
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/The_Red_Book/Red_Book_bites/Redbook-bite-20190131-2.jpg" alt="">
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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