For most new apartment buildings, the Owners Corporation starts life with little more than a bank account and the first quarterly strata levies.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/9-gay-street-castle-hill-9-gay-street-castle-hill-nsw-2154">9 Gay Street</a> in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a>, it starts with around $7 million in reserve.

It's an unusual legacy of what was once one of Sydney's highest-profile apartment remediation projects. When the development, originally known as Skyview and built by disgraced developer Top Place, came under scrutiny by then NSW Building Commissioner David Chandler, an $11 million remediation bond was negotiated to ensure any building defects could be fully rectified.

The building underwent an 18-month remediation program, during which around $4 million of that bond was spent bringing the building up to the standard it should have been in from the outset.

After extensive inspections, all active rectification orders have been lifted. What's more, around $7.2 million remains secured for the Owners Corporation for the next 15 years.

In a twist few would have predicted, what began as a significant concern for purchasers has left the building with something almost unheard of in the apartment market: a multi-million-dollar financial reserve from day one.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147685 project_image_fid=359136]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a> Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said the structure offers buyers a level of certainty that is difficult to replicate.

"The $11 million bond established for the Skyview Castle Hill development represents exceptional value, providing genuine financial security for purchasers," Huxley said.

"Unlike a standard insurance policy, this bond consists of real funds held in trust for the Owners Corporation, offering a tangible layer of protection and added peace of mind."

The apartments themselves have been designed with a focus on practical, contemporary living. Interiors feature Smeg appliances, stone benchtops, tiled living areas, carpeted bedrooms, 2.7-metre ceilings, floor-to-ceiling glazing, and ducted heating and cooling throughout.

Residents also have access to a range of shared amenities, including two rooftop barbecue areas, a swimming pool, children's playgrounds, secure building access, storage cages, and visitor parking.

The location continues to be one of the project's strongest drawcards. Castle Hill Metro Station sits virtually on the doorstep, providing direct connections across Sydney's expanding Metro network, while Castle Towers offers extensive retail, dining, entertainment, and service amenities within walking distance.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147685 project_image_fid=359127]

The building, now named after its location at 9 Gay Street, comprises a diverse mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments starting from just under $600,000.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett said demand in the Hills District continues to be driven by buyers seeking convenience and connectivity.

"Interest from both owner-occupiers and investors in Castle Hill remains exceptionally strong, with buyers consistently prioritising developments in close proximity to the Metro station and Castle Towers Shopping Centre," Hamblett said.

"There is a clear trend in the market, with purchasers seeking convenient access to transport and lifestyle amenities that support a seamless, low-maintenance way of living."

On top of the long-term protection afforded by the remaining $7.2 million bond, Equitifund is offering a limited-time stamp duty rebate on selected apartments.

Eligible purchasers can also secure finance options, including a 3.99 per cent two-year variable rate, loan-to-value ratios of up to 90 per cent, and interest-only lending options through EquitiCredit.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=147685]

Joel Robinson

Why this Castle Hill apartment building starts with a $7 million advantage

For much of the past few years, conversations about Australia's property market have centred on the rapid growth seen in Sydney, Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Perth. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3004">Melbourne</a> has followed a different trajectory.

That relative underperformance is now encouraging some buyers to reassess the city, particularly those willing to look beyond short-term market movements and focus on quality property in established locations, along with the long-term growth prospects of a city expected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s most populous.

John Bekiaris, Research &amp; Market Insights at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Projects by Equitifund</a>, said Melbourne's current position is attracting increasingly sophisticated purchasers.

"Melbourne continues to present one of Australia's strongest long-term investment stories," Bekiaris says.

"While other capital cities have experienced stronger recent growth, that relative underperformance is exactly what's attracting sophisticated counter-cyclical investors."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363268]

Equitifund isn't just commenting on Melbourne's property market, it's investing in it.

The Sydney-headquartered capital partner has taken over the remaining apartments at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/victoriana-melbourne-20-queens-road-melbourne-vic-3004">Victoriana</a>, the recently completed glass-encased development opposite Albert Park Lake in Melbourne's tightly held St Kilda Road precinct.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and built by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hickory">Hickory</a>, Victoriana places residents between one of Melbourne's most recognised parklands and the CBD, offering oversized two and three-bedroom apartments aimed at owner-occupiers seeking a genuine alternative to a traditional family home.

The development comprises 232 completed residences alongside a suite of resident amenities, including a 25-metre indoor swimming pool, gymnasium, landscaped entertaining areas, resident lounges, EV charging, secure basement parking and a concierge-style arrival experience.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363229]

The apartments have been designed with owner-occupiers firmly in mind.&nbsp;Open-plan living and dining areas flow onto generous balconies framing views across Albert Park Lake, Fawkner Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens and the Melbourne skyline.

Kitchens feature Gaggenau appliances, stone benchtops and generous preparation space. Bedrooms include built-in robes, while bathrooms feature full-height textured tiling. Hardwood flooring and ducted air conditioning complete residences designed for long-term living.

Rothelowman's architecture takes its cues from the landscape opposite the site. Sweeping horizontal glazing references the movement of Albert Park Lake, while generous balconies and expansive glazing strengthen the connection between the apartments and the surrounding parklands. The result is a building designed to deliver the scale and amenity expected of luxury apartment living, while offering the larger floorplans increasingly sought by owner-occupiers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363284]

The location is one of Victoriana's defining characteristics. Positioned on Queens Road, residents are directly opposite Albert Park Lake and within easy reach of Fawkner Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens, South Melbourne, St Kilda Road and the CBD. With few comparable development opportunities remaining in the precinct, buyers are increasingly placing value on outlooks that are unlikely to be interrupted by future construction.

Greg Huxley, Founder of Equitifund, believes those qualities become even more valuable over time.

"Premium real estate has always rewarded buyers who take a long-term view," Huxley said.

"Victoriana represents the kind of asset that's increasingly difficult to recreate today, particularly in an established location like Queens Road."

He said rising construction costs are also changing the way buyers assess completed developments.

"When you combine an irreplaceable location with thoughtful architecture and premium finishes, you create something that becomes increasingly difficult to reproduce as construction costs continue to rise."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363228]

According to National Sales Director Ben Hamblett, enquiry has been driven largely by Melbourne downsizers and buyers upgrading from smaller apartments.

"Interest in Victoriana continues to build, with strong buyer focus on the larger owner-occupier residences within the development," Hamblett says.

"Enquiry is increasingly driven by local buyers who recognise the rarity of what's on offer: park-facing apartments in an established neighbourhood where new development opportunities are becoming increasingly scarce. At Victoriana, the view is not just a feature; it's an appreciating asset in its own right."

He said interstate enquiry has also strengthened as buyers reassess Melbourne's position within the national property cycle.

"Melbourne currently stands as the most compelling entry point of any major Australian capital, and discerning buyers are beginning to recognise what those who move early always understand: the best opportunities are taken before the price rise confirms them."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=1979]

Why now is the time to buy in Melbourne's premium apartment market

Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Consumer Confidence

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Sensationalist press commentary about the outlook for residential markets was, in part, to blame for suppressed consumer confidence, according the boss of house and land package company AV Jennings.
Its chief executive Peter Summers said confidence in relation to property had been hit in "a constant barrage of media."
"Much of this media reflects extreme examples or views," he said adding that it remains a fact that market fundamentals remain sound and, in some areas, strong.
The house and land developer AV Jennings also blamed political uncertainty, a slowdown in bank lending for its plunge in profits.
It presented shareholders with headlines it said reflected a frenzy.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/11/AVJennings.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/11/AVJennings.JPG" alt="">
Summers noted Australia continued to have a strong economy.
"In analysing where things are at it is important to have this perspective.
"In the past we have had poor market conditions based on high or rising interest rates, we have had poor employment prospects in areas where our customers work.
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"Market cycles are part of the property landscape.
"They need to be planned for, they need to be managed.
"But they also need to be understood."
He said "some corrections were required, some are still required and the most obvious remains government policies.
"But the gap that has opened up the most is consumer confidence in residential property."
He suggested too shareholders that in the short term it was unlikely to change significantly.
 
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/11/AVJennings%202.JPG" alt="">
"However, as the media frenzy moderates, as it always does; as elections come and go and some sense of the political future emerges; as the necessary pricing adjustments occur; we believe those strong fundamentals will see a return to positive market conditions."
The company noted there is no doubt the first half results were impacted by a fast deterioration in market conditions," he noted, adding there had been settlement delays at key projects in NSW and Victoria.
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"When we released our full year results for FY2018, we did comment that we expected the market, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney, would most likely slow.
"Both these markets had experienced high growth rates in both volumes and prices, and moderation was not only expected, it was necessary, for longer term sustainability.
"We also flagged the political risk around three planned elections in Victoria, New South Wales and federally.
"Traditionally markets slow in the lead up to elections.
"There were the early signs of the impacts coming out of the Banking and Finance Royal Commission," he said.
"It is fair to say that the extent of all of these was underestimated.
"The impacts from the Royal Commission have been extensive and the political landscape continued to deteriorate, including seeing another change in Prime Minister."
AVJennings announced profit before tax of $2.167 million for the first half 2019 financial year, consistent with revision statements made to the market prior to Christmas
"The company believes that consumer confidence is currently suppressed by a combination of political uncertainty (especially Federal tax policy), sensationalist press commentary about the outlook for residential markets and the relatively sudden tapering of residential property lending appetite of banks."
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"Major lenders are digesting the recommendations of the Banking Royal Commission and tighter credit conditions have bitten particularly hard over the past six months,” Summer said adding he was seeing first homebuyers re-enter the market.
"Which is pleasing, but second and subsequent buyers are not currently confident to contract prior to selling their existing home, so the transaction chain is slower across the board.”
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Sensationalist press commentary blamed for suppressed home buyer confidence: AV Jennings

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Australian consumers are uncertain about the future of the property market, according to the latest consumer survey from NAB.
With Australian house prices continuing to moderate, home owners, investors, buyers and sellers now face a different and for some unfamiliar, property market.
This survey found <a href="/news/melbourne-houses-set-to-fall-the-most-in-2019-nab-survey">Melbourne houses are set to fall the most of any in 2019</a>.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/1/Strip%20ad%20keep%20up%20in%202019.jpg" alt=""></a>
NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster, said “most consumers think now is a good time to renovate their home or buy to live in, but with prices falling across most of the country, not surprisingly they don’t think it’s a good time to sell their home or investment property”.  
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/1/24/Is%20it%20a%20good%20time%20australia.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/Is%20it%20a%20good%20time%20australia.JPG" alt="">
Overall, 1 in 2 Australians said it wasn’t a good time to sell their home or investment property. A much higher number in Western Australia said it wasn’t a good time to sell their home.
“We suspect this is influenced by the fact that some home owners in WA may also be sitting on capital losses” said Mr. Oster.
Over the next 12 months Australians are still most positive about renovating their home and buying a property to live in. 
But Mr Oster said, “overwhelmingly, the majority plan to sit tight and do nothing."
On average, consumers expect price falls of ‐2.1% over the next 12 months compared to ‐2.4% forecast by property professionals that NAB surveyed.   
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australians plan to sit tight and do nothing in the 2019 property market: NAB Survey

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 0.7 per cent to 118.6 in the past week. The index is well above the average of 114.2 held since 2014, and above the longer-term average of 113.0 held since 1990.
The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses.
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<h1>What does it all mean?</h1>
Aussie consumers are resilient. Despite sharemarket gyrations and the inconvenient interruptions provided by global and domestic politics, confidence levels of Aussie consumers are above “normal”. The strong job market and falling petrol prices and clear positives for consumers together with the ongoing deals provided by global and domestic retailers.
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Aussie consumers also tend to like a firmer Aussie dollar as it is considered favourable for maintaining spending power when shopping or travelling overseas. So an Aussie near US72-73 cents, rather than US70-71 cents a few weeks ago, serves to support confidence levels.
Retailers will be pleased by the trading environment. The job market is strong, wages are ticking higher and petrol prices are well down from recent highs.
<h1>What do the figures show? </h1>
Consumer Sentiment
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 0.7 per cent to 118.6 in the past week. The index is well above the average of 114.2 held since 2014, and above the longer-term average of 113.0 held since 1990. 
Three of the five components of the index decreased last week:
- The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +6.7 to +6.2; 
- The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +25.2 to +21.4;
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- Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from +9.9 to 15.4; 
- Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +16.6 to +15.7;
- The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +30.7 to +34.1.
- The measure of inflation expectations fell from 4.2 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
<h1>What is the importance of the economic data?</h1>
- The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
<h1>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</h1>
- Consumers remain positive but they aren’t getting carried away. One of the key areas to watch is the collective attitude of consumers on their future finances. There has been a softening in views in recent weeks, suggesting some conservatism on current and future spending.
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Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
 
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

No signs of flagging in consumer confidence: CommSec

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<div class="column">NAB have suggested the orderly correction in house prices will continue over the next 18 to 24 months, with Sydney units falling around 10 percent and Melbourne houses over eight percent.</div>
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<div class="column">NAB’s change in forecast comes after their current market sentiment survey dipped to a seven year low and confidence collapsed.</div>
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<div class="column">Confidence in the NAB Residential Property Index in July saw confidence fall to its lowest level since mid-2016.</div>
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<div class="column">Its recent release is its first negative read since mid 2012, when the property price boom began.</div>
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<div class="column">"Weakening house prices in New South Wales and Victoria weight heavily on the market," NAB's chief economist Alan Oster said.</div>
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<div class="column">In July NAB forecasted a fall of 3.7 percent in the Sydney housing market this year. Now they suggest it will be a 5.7 percent decline.</div>
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<div class="column">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/10/NAB%20House.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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<div class="column">Melbourne's housing market has seen the biggest forecast change. Predicted to drop 2.3 percent over the year in July, they are now forecast to decline by 5.9 percent, even greater than Sydney.</div>
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<div class="column">Unit prices in Sydney have now been tipped to decline twice as much as they were forecast to in July.</div>
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<div class="column">NAB predicted a 1.6 percent decline, which they have changed to a 3.6 percent drop.</div>
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<div class="column">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/10/NAB%20units.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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<div class="column"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/10/NAB%20units.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div class="column">Oster says the dwelling declines are a healthy correction.</div>
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"Overall, we see this as a healthy correction which will help offset some of the risk in the household sector against a backdrop of a relatively healthy economy and labour market," he said.
"Our central scenario does not include a credit crunch event leading to disorderly falls in house prices."
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

NAB change property price correction forecast after confidence collapses

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
The consumer mood deteriorated in August, giving back about half of the surprisingly strong gains seen in June and July. Those gains look to have been partly a positive response to the tax cuts announced in the May Budget, which passed into legislation in June, the first round of cuts coming into effect in July. The June-July gains also came against a backdrop of adverse developments on the global trade front and an emerging price correction in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets.
Despite the latest decline, the Index is still in positive territory overall, 5.5% above the average in 2014 to 2017. August marks the ninth successive month that the Index has been above the 100 level, indicating optimists outnumber pessimists, a clear turnaround on the twelve months in which 11 out of 12 readings were below 100.
Reduced rate rise fears may also have contributed to the lift in sentiment since earlier in the year. Every six months we gauge respondents’ outlook for interest rates. Back in February, 58% of respondents expected rates to rise over the next year down slightly from 61% in August 2017. The proportion fell further to just below 50% in August 2018.
All index components recorded declines in August, but the biggest falls were around expectations for the economy: the ‘economic outlook, next 12 months’ sub-index down 4.9% and the ‘economic outlook, next 5yrs’ sub-index down 3.1%. Both sub-indexes recorded strong gains last month. Despite the August pull-back, both ‘economic outlook’ sub-indexes remain well above their levels a year ago and 9-10pts above their long run averages.
Consumer views around family finances showed a milder pull back in August but remain weaker overall. The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index dipped 0.5% and the ‘finances, next 12 months’ sub-index declined 1.1%. Both remain 1-2pts below their long run averages. Household budgets have come under persistent pressure from a range of factors, including: slow growth in wages, rising electricity and petrol costs, and declining house prices.
Consumers remain relatively downbeat on spending. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index declined 1.7%, giving up all of last month’s firming. At 122.4, the sub-index is 5ppts below its long run average and well below the levels associated with buoyant spending conditions.
Consumer views on unemployment continue to soften, pointing to a shift in labour market conditions. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index rose 2.8% to 129.3 and has now risen 7.2% from its February low (recall that higher reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead). The Index, which can also be viewed as a measure of consumers’ sense of job security, is now back near its long run average levels, suggesting consumers expect little change in the unemployment rate over the next 12mths. That would in turn imply a continuation of the slower employment gains seen since the start of the year with employment growth over the first half of 2018 more in line with growth in the working age population. Whether the shift marks a more sustained turning point in the labour market – something that has been seen during the lead in to the last two Federal elections – remains to be seen.
Consumer views around housing improved in August. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index posted a solid 5.5% gain and is now up 15.1% on a year ago and over 20% from its mid-2017 low. At 108.8, the index is at its highest level since September 2016. However, it remains well below the long run average of 120. The biggest lifts over the past year have been in Sydney and Melbourne where markets have seen significant price declines. Despite this, the average ‘time to buy a dwelling’ sub-indexes for these cities over the last three months has still been more subdued (102 and 101 respectively compared to 105.8 nationally). The easing rate rise fears evident in consumers’ mortgage rate expectations would have undoubtedly contributed to this lift in housing sentiment.
Consumer expectations for house prices stabilised in August. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations edged 0.3% higher to 112.8 in August. That followed a sharp 13.1% drop over the previous two months. Expectations showed solid gains in NSW and Vic (both up 4.8%), the states that had led the declines in June-July (down 22% and 23% respectively).
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on September 4. Last week the Bank released its latest Statement on Monetary Policy which provided an update on its forecasts. Of most interest was a downward revision to the Bank’s inflation forecast for 2018 from 2.25% to 1.75%. If correct that would mark five consecutive years when headline inflation has printed below the bottom of the Bank’s 2-3% target band.
The Reserve Bank still expects inflation to lift to 2.25% by 2020 and anticipates that the next move in the cash rate will be up. An obvious headwind to the Bank’s plan to move inflation back into the target zone is the impact that five years of underperformance in inflation will have on households’ and firms’ expectations. Lower expectations will make it that much more difficult to lift inflation back into the band. Price expectations impact households’ wage expectations and claims, while firms’ pricing decisions are also influenced by expectations.
Certainly it will be quite some time before the Bank has a case to adjust the cash rate.
Westpac reaffirms its view that rates will remain on hold in both 2018 and 2019.
Bill Evans is the Chief Economist for Westpac
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Consumer optimism fades, but housing sentiment rises: Bill Evans

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The Sydney house market is forecast to fall 3.7 percent this year, according to the latest NAB Residential Property Index which saw confidence fall to its lowest level since mid-2016 and less than half the average.
The 1.6 percent fall in unit prices in Sydney in 2018 will not be as much as for houses. 
NAB's Residential Property Index is 'a measure of sentiment among property professionals based on expectations for house prices and rents'.
Sentiment waned in all states, with the biggest falls in WA and NSW.
The report suggests weaker than expected residential markets in Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth would add to ongoing weakness in Sydney.
It had prompted NAB to cut its outlook for housing prices this year to expect house prices this year to fall 1.8 percent from the 0.8 percent it forecast in April.
Unit prices are tipped to fall 1.7 percent.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/12/NAB%20res%20G2.JPG" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/12/NAB%20res%20G4.JPG" alt="">
Confidence also fell to a new survey low, pulled down mainly by NSW and VIC where the outlook for house prices has been scaled back sharply.
The outlook for rents remains positive in all states and is likely placing upward pressure on yields.
It noted housing demand from first home buyers continued to offset a reduction in demand from foreign buyers in new and established housing markets, with state government incentives and moderating house prices assisting these buyers in moving onto the property ladder.
Property professionals have said credit constraints are impacting housing markets more than they have for a number of years amid intensified lending scrutiny by banks and APRA-inspired tighter credit policies.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/12/NAB%20res%20G3.JPG" alt="">
NAB’s is of the opinion that the weakness in dwelling prices seen over the past year is likely to persist in 2018 and 2019 although they expect moderate rather than sharp price falls.
Having revised their forecasts NAB now predict that there will be a slightly larger decline in 2018 and a small fall in 2019 (which they previously predicted would be a small increase), driven by continued weakness in Sydney and Melbourne as well as a sharper decline in unit prices in Brisbane.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/12/NAB%20res%20G1.JPG" alt="">
NAB forecasts that house prices will flatten in aggregate in 2020.
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Confidence falls with Sydney housing market forecast to be the worst in 2018: NAB

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Paris is a top-tier world city that offers value on a global stage.
The Savills combined world city ranking for connectedness, competitiveness, power and performance often places Paris third, after London and New York.
But several years of more muted performance have left residential costs significantly lower than its rivals.
However, with a new political regime, historically low interest rates and building consumer confidence, the residential market has now possibly turned.
Prices in the prime Paris residential market rose by 4.3% in 2016 and the pace of price growth has picked up in 2017.
“Stock levels have been starting to contract over the last year which will continue to push prices higher in the coming months”, said Hugues de La Morandière, partner of Savills residential in Paris.
Across the whole market, prices stood at €8,430psm in February 2017. Leading indicators from Notaires suggest a price of €8,700psm in June 2017, bringing price growth to 7% for the last 12 months.
In the prime market, prices have also grown from a 2014 low, averaging between €12,000 and €18,000psm, while exceptional properties are trading for between €20,000 and €30,000psm. 
Values in the 1st, 4th and 5th arrondissements have already exceeded their 2012 peak.
Paul Tostevin, associate director, Savills World Research, said recently the recovery was being driven by domestic demand.
"Activity has been buoyed by record low interest rates and more-competitive asking prices.
"This year, the prospect of interest rate rises has encouraged more buyers to close deals and stock levels have fallen.
“Overseas buyers accounted for just 9% of the prime market in 2016, but we expect them to grow in importance. 
"The new Government will bring clarity on legislation and a period of relative stability.
"This could encourage buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to act, including expat French citizens looking to return home.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-23%20at%2010.00.43%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-23%20at%2010.00.43%20am.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://search.savills.com/com/en/list#/r/list/property-for-sale%252Ffrance%252Fparis%252Fgbp%252Fdesc" target="_blank">Prime Paris</a> is characterised by apartments of the Haussmann era, with limited new development. 
Consequently, modern buildings with high levels of services and amenities (a type favoured by wealthy international buyers) are relatively rare in Paris.
Pied-á-terres, larger apartments and mansions are favoured by both French and international high net worth individuals (HNWIs).
Family apartments are sold mainly to the French.
Overseas buyers accounted for 9% of prime Paris sales in 2016, down from a peak of 14% in 2008.
Americans, who benefit from a strong dollar, dropped from 21% of foreign buyers in 2015 to 16% in 2016.
Other Europeans are the largest single foreign buyer group (39%), led by the British, Swiss and Belgians.
The Chinese, a huge tourist group, have yet to make their mark as property buyers.
The perception of France as a high-tax location has weighed on the prime markets.
But Savills analysis of buying, holding and selling costs in major world cities suggests this is unfounded.
Property taxes and fees are, in fact, average by global standards.
Purchase costs in particular, are lower than many rival cities. Hong Kong, Vancouver and Singapore all levy an additional 15% stamp duty on foreign buyers (on top of existing stamp duties).
Beyond property, France’s much quoted 75% income tax rate is not payable by those whose source of income is from another country.
Paul Tostevin suggested the election of Emmanuel Macron as the new French president should mean a period of stability for the Parisian residential market.
"Reduced political risk in Europe coupled with pro-business reforms could result in renewed economic growth and stimulate the residential markets. 
"The abolition of Wealth Tax (ISF) will improve France’s attractiveness to HNWIs, although taxation on real estate at the current ISF thresholds are set continue.”
Mark Harvey, head of European sales at Knight Frank, noted last month that online searches for French property on Knight Frank’s website had increased by 97 per cent in April 2017 compared to March, and across the country 30,909 properties changed hands in the first quarter of 2017, up 8 per cent on the same period in 2016 and 29 per cent on 2015.
Despite price growth in the prime Paris residential market of 7 per cent in the past 12 months, less than 15 per cent of HNW buyers are foreign, compared to around 60 per cent in London, according to Savills.
It seems Paris’s high-end housing stock is typified by gloomy 19th-century apartments whose stuffy interiors are worlds away from the open-plan, wrap-around glazed affairs favoured by most international buyers.
‘Unlike London, where there are upwards of 20-25 large developments going on, in Paris there are fewer than three," Hugues de la Morandière told the Spear's wealth management website last month.
"Consequently, Paris tends to be less attractive to people who want something of international standards, although there is a new trend of interior designers renovating older apartments into something more modern."
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Confidence returns to Paris residential market says Savills

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GUEST OBSERVER
The NAB business survey reported that business conditions remained elevated in July and that business confidence increased. The survey was conducted from July 25 to 31.
In July, the conditions index rose 1pt to +15. This is well above the long-run average for this series, of +1 (dating from 1989), but below the highs of 2007 ahead of the GFC.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.14.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.14.38%20AM.png" alt="">
The components of business conditions for July were: trading conditions down 1pt to +20; profitability up 4pts to +18; and employment conditions held onto earlier gains, steady at +7.
Business confidence moved higher, up 4pts to +12. Business confidence has improved since 2016, mirroring the global trend, and is at above average levels, although it continues to trail actual conditions.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.15.52%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.15.52%20AM.png" alt="">
How to interpret the survey?
The elevated level of the business conditions index is overstating actual conditions across the broader economy, as it has tended to do since the GFC.
Directionally, the survey suggests that the Australian economy is experiencing a trend improvement in underlying conditions after the slowdown in mid-2016, associated with the July Federal election.
The official data was mixed early in 2017, impacted by weather disruptions. More recently, partial indicators have improved (retail sales, exports, jobs), lending support to our view that the economy will rebound in 2017 from these temporary disruptions, although consumer spending is likely to be constrained by weak wages growth.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.17.09%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.17.09%20AM.png" alt="">
On employment growth, the previously weak official data has fallen into line with the positive signal from the private business surveys, meeting our expectations. The survey suggests that the recent trend improvement in employment will be sustained in coming months.
On investment, the outlook is less certain, with the survey’s capex measure pulling back in July.
By industry, a strengthening of conditions in 2017 relative to 2016H2 is evident in: construction; manufacturing; and mining. Construction has strengthened on an upswing in public investment; a lift in commercial building; elevated home building activity (ahead of a 2018 downturn); and the waning of the mining investment drag. Mining is enjoying better cash flows associated with higher commodity prices. Manufacturing is benefitting from strength in construction, mining, agriculture and the lower AUD. Positive spillover effects are also evident in wholesale and in transport &amp; utilities.
Retail conditions reportedly dipped in July, possibly in part due to a mild winter, with Sydney experiencing its 2nd warmest July on record. Official data reports that real retail sales jumped in Q2, up 1.5%, after a weather disrupted 0.2% gain in Q1. The uncertainty is around the strength of consumer spending over the second half of 2017 and beyond.
By state, business conditions for July are positive in all states, with the exception of WA. Trend conditions are most favourable in the major non-mining state of NSW and Victoria. In NSW conditions jumped in July, to +22, possibly in part due to unseasonably mild and dry weather conditions. Looking through month to month volatility, the improvement in overall conditions between 2016H2 and 2017H1 is largely driven by the mining states of WA and Qld, as well as SA. 
Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/andrew-hanlan/3/222/430" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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July conditions elevated, confidence lifts: Andrew Hanlan

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GUEST OBSERVER
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating eased from 112.4 to a 5-week low of 111.8 in the week to June 25.
Engineering work lifts: Work done rose by 2.8 percent in the March quarter to $20.3 billion.
Outstanding work: The value of engineering work still to be completed stood at a 71⁄2-year low of $59.8 billion at the end of March.
Consumer confidence data is important for retailers.
The data on engineering construction is important for builders, building material and construction-dependent companies.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-28%20at%201.32.46%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-28%20at%201.32.46%20PM.png" alt="">
What does it all mean?
Consumer confidence remains just OK. Most Aussie consumers are still grappling with the new reality that annual wage growth will now be closer to 2 percent rather than 3-4 percent as in the past.
Still, what is lost on most is the fact that wages are growing at a faster rate than household inflation. And the job market continues to improve with the jobless rate at 4-year lows.
While business confidence is near 7-year highs, consumer confidence is merely trending sideways. The hope is that with profits at record highs and real unit labour costs falling, more jobs will be created, thus leading to a tighter job market and serving to push wages higher.
The mining construction boom continues to unwind. The value of outstanding engineering work has fallen to 71⁄2- year lows around $60 billion, but the value of work yet to be done has scope to fall further to get to the levels existing before the mining boom commenced.
The new economic driver in the next few years will be broader economic and social infrastructure building, especially that progressed by state and federal governments.
What do the figures show?
Consumer sentiment
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating eased from 112.4 to 111.8 in the week to June 25. Confidence is down 4.3 percent over the year and below the average of 113.1 since 2014.
Three of the five components of the index fell in the latest week:
<ul>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was unchanged at a reading of zero;</li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +23 to +21;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from -6 to -3;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +4 to +3;</li>
<li>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +41 to +38:</li>
</ul>
Engineering construction
Engineering construction work completed in the March quarter (activities like roads, bridges, pipelines and railways) rose by 2.8 percent in real terms. 
Work done was down 12.5 percent on a year ago. But while work done for the private sector was down 22.4 percent over the year, work done for the public sector was up by 10.2 percent.
The value of engineering work yet to be done stood at $59.8 billion at the end of March with private sector work standing at $56 billion and public sector work at $3.8 billion. 
While outstanding work is at 71⁄2-year lows, the value of the projects is still double the level that prevailed a decade ago in December 2006, just before the Chinese-driven mining construction boom. 
Characteristics of Exporters 
The total number of exporters of goods and/or services in 2015/16 was 53,350, an increase of 2,454 (5 percent) from 2014/15.
The number of goods exporters increased by 2,611 (5 per cent) and the number of services exporters decreased by 136 (-4 percent).
The increase in the number of exporters was across the board, except for large goods exporters (over $100m) and services exporters.
The number of goods exporters increased in each of the main industry divisions, except for Mining. What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-28%20at%201.34.03%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides detailed estimates on Engineering Construction each quarter. The data is valuable in gauging activity levels across the sector. 
The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides insights on Australian exporters each year to highlight trends. What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to remain on the interest rate sidelines for an extended period. The mining boom is over, but home building is at record levels and public infrastructure construction is about to ramp up. The economy is poised to enter a new phase.
Consumers aren’t super-optimistic, but neither are they super-pessimistic. Basically they are just taking stock of the changing landscape. Unfortunately political wrangling isn’t helping to boost consumer sentiment, despite some favourable influences such as strong job growth and lower petrol prices. 
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Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx">CommSec</a>. 
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Wages growing at a faster rate than household inflation: Craig James

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The number of Australians who consider property as the best place to invest their savings has fallen to its lowest level in more than 40 years, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.
The latest survey found confidence has fallen since September 2015 to an all time low of 11.6 percent.
In a breakfast briefing this week Michelle Bullock from the Reserve Bank said the worry is what happened in the United States - a big downturn in housing prices and negative equity
"Hopefully what we've done with strengthening the resilience of the households and the banks means they can withstand that sort of thing if it happened," she said.
The Age reported Bill Evans, Westpac chief economist said the result showed a clear increase in risk aversion.
"Consumers are saying: yes we expect [real estate] prices to rise, but we are a little cautious," he said.
"There is no doubt there is nervousness about the sustainability of the prices."
 
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