<p>A mix of Gold Coast locals, fly-in, fly-out purchasers from Sydney and Melbourne, and Brisbane-based families has driven early sales success at Broadbeach's newest apartment tower, Lumara.</p>

<p>The 26-level project, a joint venture between builder-developer 5Point Projects and Bourke Projects, comprises just 37 luxury residences and is attracting a buyer profile that is looking for exclusivity, above the most amenity-rich suburb on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150454 project_image_fid=364156]</p>

<p>Jamie Bourke, Director of Bourke Projects, says every buyer secured so far intends to use Lumara as a lock-up-and-leave residence, combining holiday use with the ability to work remotely when required.</p>

<p>“The size of the apartments, both half- and full-floor options, and the different zones within the floorplans, lends itself perfectly to dedicated home office setups and multi-generational family holidays,” Bourke says.</p>

<p>That flexibility has become a key drawcard for affluent buyers seeking a second residence on the Gold Coast without sacrificing the ability to conduct business away from their primary home base.</p>

<p>The absence of holiday letting within the building has also resonated strongly with purchasers.</p>

<p>“This type of buyer doesn't need to generate holiday rental income,” Bourke says. “They're paying for exclusivity, privacy and certainty around who their neighbours are.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150454 project_image_fid=366491]</p>

<p>The strong demand comes amid broader shifts in the high-end apartment market following the Federal Budget announcements in May.</p>

<p>“We were already seeing strong enquiry from high-net-worth buyers, but that has only accelerated since the policy changes,” Bourke says.</p>

<p>“A lot of those buyers are looking to place more capital into premium lifestyle assets rather than investment-grade stock that has been targeted by the Federal Government.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150454 project_image_fid=366486]</p>

<p>Designed by Cottee Parker, Lumara adopts a slender, sculpted form with an emphasis on natural materials suited to its beachfront setting. The architectural approach draws on coastal influences, with a palette of stone, timber and concrete selected for durability and the ability to weather over time.</p>

<p>Apartments are limited to three and four-bedroom configurations, with a maximum of two residences per floor through the mid-levels and a selection of full-floor and dual-level homes in the upper levels. All apartments are oriented to the north to maximise natural light, cross-ventilation and views across the ocean, city skyline and hinterland.</p>

<p>A two-level amenity offering is positioned high within the building on levels 20 and 21, conceived as a sky wellness retreat. Facilities include a magnesium pool, spa, sauna and steam rooms, alongside more social spaces such as a private dining room, resident lounge, workspaces and outdoor barbecue areas integrated with landscaped greenery.</p>

<p>The uppermost levels are reserved for larger-format residences, including several full-floor homes and a dual-level penthouse with its own private wellness features and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>To give buyers confidence, 5Point and Bourke commenced construction ahead of the apartments launching to the market, a sure-fire way to prove they mean business, and the building will be delivered. They are targeting a 2028 completion date.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150454]</p>


Joel Robinson

Locals, interstate holiday makers, drive early sales at Lumara, Broadbeach's newest luxury apartment tower

<p>Often when it comes to purchasing property, the biggest barrier to entry is the deposit. Buyers of established homes typically aim for a 20 per cent deposit to avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance, while most property transactions require around a 10 per cent deposit when contracts are exchanged.</p>

<p>The off-the-plan market works differently, with buyers typically paying a deposit during construction and settling the balance upon completion. As completion approaches at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/fabbrica-fitzroy-369-gore-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">Fabbrica Fitzroy</a>, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pace-development-group">Pace</a> is making it easier for buyers to secure a residence through a deposit-matching incentive. Purchasers need only contribute a five per cent deposit*, with Pace matching the remaining five per cent.</p>

<p>The offer comes as Pace unveils a completed display apartment and townhouse, now available for inspection by appointment ahead of the project's Spring completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371009]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/winwood-mckenzie-architecture">Winwood Mckenzie</a> and landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/acre">Acre</a>, Fabbrica draws on Fitzroy’s industrial and manufacturing history, incorporating references to the former Argyle Shirt Factory and Life Savers Confectionery Company that once occupied the site.</p>

<p>The development comprises 85 residences, spanning low-maintenance apartments through to larger-format townhouses with private street access and double lock-up garages, a relatively uncommon offering in Fitzroy’s higher-density apartment market.</p>

<p>Pace says the project has been designed to appeal to buyers seeking inner-city convenience without sacrificing space, flexibility, or amenity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371016]</p>

<p>Inside the residences, Winwood Mckenzie has focused on adaptable layouts and integrated detailing, with features including custom joinery, and concealed storage solutions. The material palette leans into warm, tactile finishes intended to complement the building’s industrial architectural language.</p>

<p>Fabbrica’s rooftop amenity is a key part of the project offering. Spanning around 800 sqm, the communal rooftop includes a private dining room, communal kitchen, lounge spaces, work-from-home zones, and outdoor dining areas overlooking the Melbourne CBD skyline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371017]</p>

<p>Landscape architecture studio Acre has introduced a layered rooftop garden designed to soften the urban setting while creating a more communal environment for residents.</p>

<p>The Fitzroy location also positions residents within walking distance of Brunswick Street, Smith Street, parks, cafés, galleries, and public transport, while remaining only minutes from Melbourne’s CBD. The project has an enviable Walk Score of 96.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371025]</p>

<p>Pace, which is also delivering the project as builder, has developed more than 100 projects across Melbourne over the past three decades. The vertically integrated approach has become increasingly common among developers seeking greater control over construction delivery amid broader market pressures affecting the apartment sector.</p>

<p>The strikingly contemporary Gore Street development is now around 70 per cent complete, with purchasers expected to move into their new homes in Spring 2026. A limited number of residences remain available under the current deposit match offer.</p>

<p><sup>*Conditions apply in relation to the deposit match offer.</sup></p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=139552]</p>


Pace offers five per cent deposit match at Fabbrica Fitzroy ahead of Spring completion

<p data-end="181" data-start="0">Sydney developer Hyecorp's roots on the Lower North Shore stretch back three generations, and that deep understanding of the market continues to shape where and how it develops today.</p>

<p data-end="484" data-start="183">From high-rise towers to boutique apartment projects, the family-run developer has built its reputation by focusing on a part of Sydney it knows intimately. Founded by Michael Abolakian in the early 1990s, Hyecorp is now led by his sons Stephen, Troy and Patrick.</p>

<p data-end="657" data-start="486">Stephen Abolakian, joint managing director alongside Troy, has spent more than two decades in the business, overseeing development, planning, finance, marketing and sales.</p>

<p data-end="806" data-start="659">Abolakian says the developer's disciplined focus on where it chooses to operate has been, and continues to be, one of Hyecorp's greatest strengths.</p>

<p data-end="871" data-start="808">“We know the buyer profile exceptionally well,” Abolakian says.</p>

<p data-end="1097" data-start="873">“The demographics between places like Willoughby, Chatswood, St Leonards and Roseville are very similar. There are nuances between suburbs and projects, but culturally and from a buyer perspective, there’s a strong overlap.”</p>

<p data-end="1169" data-start="1099">That buyer has historically been overwhelmingly owner-occupier driven.</p>

<p data-end="1434" data-start="1171">Unlike many Sydney apartment developers that have traditionally relied heavily on investor demand, Hyecorp’s projects have typically attracted downsizers, upsizers, rightsizers and family owner-occupiers seeking long-term homes rather than short-term investments.</p>

<p data-end="1533" data-start="1436">“Historically, investors have been a much smaller portion of our demand profile,” Abolakian says.</p>

<p data-end="1665" data-start="1535">“We design for owner-occupiers. We don’t design for yield, we design for comfort, amenity, family living and long-term usability.”</p>

<p data-end="1721" data-start="1667">That philosophy extends well beyond apartment layouts.</p>

<p data-end="1966" data-start="1723">From landscaping and communal gardens to shared amenities and circulation spaces, Hyecorp’s developments are designed around how people actually live, something Abolakian believes has become increasingly important in Sydney’s apartment market.</p>

<p data-end="2051" data-start="1968">“There was probably a period where having an approved project in market was enough,” he says.</p>

<p data-end="2154" data-start="2053">“There wasn’t as much competition and if you built it, buyers would come. That’s no longer the case.”</p>

<p data-end="2386" data-start="2156">“There’s more supply in the pipeline now, particularly with TOD precincts and low and mid-rise reforms opening up opportunities across Sydney. Buyers have more choice, so if you get the product wrong, they’ll simply go elsewhere.”</p>

<p data-end="2386" data-start="2156">[smartcode_project:default project_id=110379 project_image_fid=311393]</p>

<p data-end="2549" data-start="2388">The shift has forced developers to become more sophisticated in how they approach apartment design, particularly as owner-occupier expectations continue to rise.</p>

<p data-end="2678" data-start="2551">For Hyecorp, that means thinking beyond who the buyer is today and designing for who they may become in five or 10 years' time.</p>

<p data-end="2757" data-start="2680">“People buying now often aren’t moving in for several years,” Abolakian says.</p>

<p data-end="2949" data-start="2759">“You might have a young couple buying today, but by the time they move in they may have children, older children, or changing lifestyle needs. You’ve got to think about how families evolve.”</p>

<p data-end="3219" data-start="3163">That thinking also shapes Hyecorp’s approach to amenity, which positions wellness at the forefront.</p>

<p data-end="3219" data-start="3163">[smartcode_project:default project_id=149594 project_image_fid=362634]</p>

<p data-end="3454" data-start="3221">While resort-style facilities have become increasingly common marketing tools across Sydney apartment developments, Abolakian says the challenge is ensuring amenities are genuinely usable and appropriate for the scale of the project.</p>

<p data-end="3546" data-start="3456">“If amenities are done right, they can materially improve the living experience,” he says, adding however that if you&nbsp;overdo it or get it wrong, you can end up with facilities nobody uses that simply create ongoing strata costs.”</p>

<p data-end="3919" data-start="3669">That balance is something Hyecorp is aiming to strike with projects like Roseville Avenue, one of the group's upcoming Lower North Shore developments, which Abolakian describes as bringing a resort-style living experience into a metropolitan setting.</p>

<p data-end="4005" data-start="3921">“It’s about creating something that feels special without being excessive,” he says.</p>

<p data-end="4112" data-start="4007">“Good gardens, quality apartments, thoughtful amenity. Creating that resort feeling in a metro location.”</p>

<p data-end="4112" data-start="4007"><img alt="Hyecorp" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="13c4c0f3-b1b7-44cf-9344-0b3d1d07797a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-02%20at%2012.14.57%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=9OLWjyj2bYkDV35F78WJnyMSPfc2bJ2z" /></p>

<p data-end="4243" data-start="4114">The focus on owner-occupier product comes as Sydney’s apartment market continues to navigate a difficult development environment.&nbsp;For Hyecorp, maintaining an in-house operating model across construction, sales, marketing and development management has become increasingly important in navigating that environment.</p>

<p data-end="5230" data-start="5149">“We’ve always believed in keeping a lot of the process in-house,” Abolakian says.</p>

<p data-end="5392" data-start="5232">“It creates efficiencies, but it also creates quality control. You can make faster decisions and ensure the end product stays aligned with the original vision.”</p>

<p data-end="5674" data-start="5394">Despite the challenges, Abolakian believes demand for quality owner-occupier apartments across Sydney remains strong beneath the surface, particularly across established Lower North Shore suburbs where downsizers continue to seek new housing options close to existing communities.</p>

<p data-end="5723" data-start="5676">“There are definitely people waiting,” he says.</p>

<p data-end="5902" data-start="5725">“Once some of the broader uncertainty settles, whether that’s the global environment or some of the local economic noise, I think the right projects will perform very strongly.”</p>

<p style="text-align:start">Hyecorp currently has three residential developments on the market across Sydney’s Lower North Shore.&nbsp;Audrey, St Leonards, positioned opposite Newlands Park, is nearing completion and preparing to welcome its first residents, with the project now almost sold out.</p>

<p style="text-align:start">Hyecorp has also recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/celine-chatswood-37-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">Celine Chatswood</a>, an architectural tower, while continuing to deliver&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet Roseville</a>, a more boutique scale of development with just 34 apartments.</p>


Why Hyecorp continues to back Sydney's Lower North Shore apartment market

<p>South East Queensland’s apartment market is entering a new phase defined by rising prices, constrained affordability, and mounting pressure on the construction pipeline, according to RPM Group’s latest SEQ Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report.</p>

<p>The May 2026 report highlights a widening divide between what buyers can afford and what developers can viably deliver, with detached house prices continuing to push more buyers toward apartments across Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast.</p>

<p>RPM says Brisbane’s median house price has reached around $1.5 million, accelerating the shift toward higher-density housing as buyers are increasingly priced out of the detached market.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135094 project_image_fid=356540]</p>

<p>Median unit prices rose across all three major SEQ markets in the March quarter. Brisbane City recorded the strongest annual growth, with median unit prices climbing 21 per cent to $862,000, while the Gold Coast reached the highest overall median at $950,000, up 17 per cent year-on-year. The Sunshine Coast followed at $870,000, representing annual growth of nine per cent.</p>

<p>RPM noted the affordability gap between houses and units remains significant, with detached homes commanding premiums of 67 per cent in Brisbane and 68 per cent on the Gold Coast relative to apartments.</p>

<p>The report suggests this price disparity is increasingly consolidating buyer demand within the apartment market, particularly among downsizers and owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>“Demand is real. Supply is moving. But they’re operating on different timelines and the gap between what’s being built and what buyers can afford is the defining tension in this market right now,” RPM Queensland and NSW Managing Directors Peter Neale and Clinton Trezise said in the report.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150787 project_image_fid=366230]</p>

<p>While approvals and commencements are strengthening, RPM argues the delivery pipeline remains constrained by construction costs, labour shortages, and extended build timelines.</p>

<p>Apartment approvals across Queensland increased 86 per cent over the year to February 2026, reaching 12,682 approvals, the highest level recorded since 2016. Brisbane overtook the Gold Coast as the state’s most active apartment approval market, with nearly 5,000 apartments approved over the past 12 months.</p>

<p>Unit commencements also strengthened considerably, rising 48 per cent year-on-year to 5,453 commencements in the December 2025 quarter, the highest level since 2018.</p>

<p>However, RPM’s research found apartment delivery timeframes have expanded sharply compared to the previous cycle. Projects are now averaging around 30 months from approval to completion, compared to roughly 20 months a decade ago.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=367515]</p>

<p>The number of units under construction has climbed to approximately 31,530 dwellings, nearing the previous 2016 peak, though projects are remaining in the pipeline for considerably longer.</p>

<p>Construction costs continue to weigh heavily on feasibility. RPM found the average apartment construction cost in Greater Brisbane reached $630,000 per dwelling in 2025, exceeding both Sydney and Melbourne. Coastal Queensland markets, including the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, were even higher at an average of $817,418 per apartment due to the prevalence of larger premium product.</p>

<p>The report also points to increasing pressure from Olympic-related infrastructure spending ahead of Brisbane 2032, with labour competition expected to intensify over the next several years.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370960]</p>

<p>ANZ Associate Director of Property Daniel Gradwell said the underlying demand drivers across South East Queensland remain strong, supported by interstate migration, downsizers, and population growth.</p>

<p>“The challenge is bringing enough supply to market to meet that demand, and nothing on the horizon makes that straightforward,” Gradwell said.</p>

<p>RPM’s analysis found the affordability challenge is becoming more pronounced in the new apartment market itself, with only three per cent of surveyed new apartments priced below $1 million.</p>

<p>Instead, the market is increasingly concentrated in higher price brackets, with the most common new apartment price band across SEQ sitting between $1.5 million and $1.75 million. Around half of all new apartment stock surveyed is priced below $2 million.</p>

<p>The report suggests developers are not necessarily avoiding lower price points by choice, but because current construction economics make delivering affordable apartments increasingly difficult at scale.</p>

<p>Rental conditions also remain tight across the region. Median rents for one-bedroom apartments rose 12 per cent in Brisbane over the past year to $580 per week, while Gold Coast one-bedroom rents increased nine per cent to $630.</p>

<p>Despite rising rents, RPM noted bond lodgements have generally trended downward over the past five years, indicating more apartments are being absorbed by owner-occupiers rather than retained as investor-held rental stock.</p>

<p>Looking ahead, RPM expects projects targeting the mid-market owner-occupier segment between $1.25 million and $2 million to remain the most viable part of the market, while premium projects in highly constrained coastal or riverfront locations continue to attract demand.</p>

<p>“Construction costs are rewriting the feasibility rulebook across Greater Brisbane, and with little relief in sight, only projects in the right price band, right location, and with presales secured early will make it through,” the report concludes.</p>


SEQ apartment demand outpacing affordable supply as construction timelines stretch: RPM

<p data-end="231" data-start="139">Camberwell Junction has long been the epicentre of amenity in Melbourne’s Boroondara region.</p>

<p data-end="597" data-start="233">For nearly a century, it has drawn both locals and visitors, anchored by the Camberwell Sunday Market, which first operated in 1929 and quickly became a fixture of the suburb’s identity. Over time, the Junction evolved into one of Melbourne’s most established retail and lifestyle precincts, now comprising more than 400 stores and over 300 commercial businesses.</p>

<p data-end="699" data-start="599">Despite that depth of amenity, one thing has remained notably limited: the supply of new apartments.</p>

<p data-end="1041" data-start="701">In a suburb defined by its heritage streetscapes and tightly held residential stock, new development opportunities have been scarce, particularly within the core of the Junction itself. That lack of supply has left a gap in the market for larger, design-led apartments suited to downsizers and owner-occupiers wanting to remain in the area.</p>

<p data-end="1173" data-start="1043">Boutique developer Above Zero identified that gap when it secured a prime site on Burke Road, in the heart of Camberwell Junction.</p>

<p data-end="1173" data-start="1043">[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368543]</p>

<p data-end="1566" data-start="1175">The site has a long planning history. Various proposals have been put forward over more than a decade, many of which were knocked back by the City of Boroondara, with initial applications dating back to 2015. Above Zero acquired the site in 2022 and returned with a revised scheme, refining both the building’s height and its ground-level interface to better align with Council expectations.</p>

<p data-end="1629" data-start="1568">That process has culminated in approval for Camberwell House.</p>

<p data-end="1845" data-start="1631">The Cera Stribley-designed development will deliver 57 residences on a 1,950 sqm site within the Camberwell Activity Centre, placing it directly within one of Melbourne’s most established retail and transport hubs.</p>

<p data-end="2162" data-start="1847">It is expected to be one of the only new apartment developments to launch in the Junction in recent years, reinforcing the rarity of new supply in the precinct. Currently, there are just a handful of projects on the market in Camberwell, underscoring the significance of a development of this scale and positioning.</p>

<p data-end="2162" data-start="1847">[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368544]</p>

<p data-end="2438" data-start="2164">Camberwell House has been conceived with a clear focus on larger-format apartments. The project will offer a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, alongside a limited number of penthouses, targeting owner-occupiers seeking scale rather than volume-driven product.</p>

<p data-end="2496" data-start="2440">The building’s vertical presence will also set it apart.</p>

<p data-end="2868" data-start="2498">Positioned on Burke Road, the development is set to become one of the taller buildings in its immediate context, allowing for elevated outlooks across Melbourne’s CBD skyline and toward the Dandenong Ranges. In a precinct characterised by lower-scale built form, that height provides a point of differentiation, particularly for buyers seeking outlook and natural light.</p>

<p data-end="2868" data-start="2498">[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368568]</p>

<p data-end="3133" data-start="2870">Architecture has been led by Cera Stribley, with interiors by GOLDEN and landscape design by Florian Wild. The design approach centres on material consistency and restraint, with residences oriented to maximise light, ventilation and connection to outdoor spaces.</p>

<p data-end="3317" data-start="3135">Full-height glazing and generous terraces form a key part of that strategy, allowing apartments to extend beyond their internal footprint and engage with the surrounding environment.</p>

<p data-end="3413" data-start="3319">Beyond the private residences, a significant component of the project is its amenity offering.</p>

<p data-end="3710" data-start="3415">Above Zero has positioned Camberwell House as a “complete living environment”, incorporating a full floor dedicated to resident facilities. At the centre of that is a wellness zone, including a 12.5-metre lap pool, spa, sauna and treatment spaces, alongside a gym and recovery-focused amenities.</p>

<p data-end="3852" data-start="3712">This level of amenity is more commonly associated with inner-city developments, rather than established middle-ring suburbs like Camberwell.</p>

<p data-end="3852" data-start="3712">[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368588]</p>

<p data-end="4137" data-start="3854">Additional shared spaces include a private library lounge, dining and entertaining areas, and an indoor golf simulator. A self-contained guest suite has also been incorporated, allowing residents to accommodate visiting family or friends without impacting their primary living space.</p>

<p data-end="4220" data-start="4139">The inclusion of these facilities reflects a broader shift in buyer expectations.</p>

<p data-end="4590" data-start="4222">As more downsizers look to transition from larger family homes into apartments, there is increasing demand for developments that offer not just a residence, but a lifestyle. That includes access to wellness, social and entertaining spaces within the building itself, reducing the reliance on external amenity while still maintaining proximity to established precincts.</p>

<p data-end="4644" data-start="4592">Camberwell House is positioned to benefit from both.</p>

<p data-end="4919" data-start="4646">Its location places it within immediate walking distance of Camberwell Junction’s retail and dining offering, as well as public transport connections, including tram and train services. That combination of internal amenity and external convenience is central to its appeal.</p>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-150" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:55d7c6ac-8e6d-4881-ad49-0ed9bf66d1cc-74" dir="auto">
<p data-end="271" data-start="88">Jellis Craig Projects Director Stephen Bowtell is handling sales for the project and says Camberwell House offers a rare entry point into one of Melbourne’s most tightly held markets.</p>

<p style="text-align:start">“Buyers are recognising that Camberwell House offers something they simply haven’t seen before in Boroondara,”&nbsp;Bowtell&nbsp;says.</p>

<p>“It combines a level of resident amenity and service typically associated with Melbourne’s premium inner-city developments, while being positioned right in the heart of Camberwell Junction.</p>

<p>“The response to the concierge offering has been particularly strong. Buyers appreciate not only the convenience, but also the sense of security and peace of mind that comes from having a dedicated presence in the building every day.</p>

<p>“When you combine that with the wellness facilities, the exceptional arrival experience, and panoramic views across both the CBD skyline and the Dandenong Ranges, it creates a lifestyle proposition that is genuinely unique within the local market.”</p>
</section>

<p data-end="5000" data-start="4921">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4896]</p>


Above Zero launches Camberwell House in undersupplied Camberwell Junction precinct

Consumer Confidence

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Very few cases of COVID-19 in Australia, with a handful of cases returning from overseas and headed to quarantine. </p>
<p id="post-body-464826279062726739" class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4cgHNMSh-oQ/Xsx2s06IRqI/AAAAAAAA16g/wDLDtpPvcfkunQPJ6ms16Hj1eSX8Ba3kQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1410"></div>
<br><div>Recoveries continue to comfortably outstrip new cases.</div>
<br><div>And, importantly, we're consistently seeing zero deaths reported on a daily basis, with few serious cases even going as far as ICU. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Oq1uYHyB-KM/Xsx2tGzEx0I/AAAAAAAA16o/8yxL_txLTsEmUkq7S9oXm1PF9d9-Es09gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1409"></div>
<br><div>There are 5 cases remaining in ICU nationally, against the expanded capacity of 7,500 beds.</div>
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<div><strong>Confidence returning</strong></div>
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<div>Consumer confidence increased for an 8th consecutive week, up by +0.4 per cent to a reading of 92.7 points according to ANZ-Roy Morgan.</div>
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<div>Future financial conditions gained by +3.2 per cent and is approaching its long term average reading.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vCSe5Ue0BOI/Xsx2s1gwkFI/AAAAAAAA16k/Zeb8FGowur8NGJMmSaZfv2E44F65IjhawCPcBGAYYCw/s640/CC2.jpg" width="640" height="502" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1011"></div>
<br><div><span><em>Source: ANZ-Roy Morgan</em></span></div>
<br><div>Credit card usage data shows that Aussies are willing and able to spend again, but realistically travel restrictions needs to be eased before the economy can begin to fire up properly.</div>
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<strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Confidence up for 8th consecutive week: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Confidence means a lot to real estate markets. And it’s been a long time since Australian real estate has had such a concerted shot in the arm as on Tuesday this week.</span></p>
<p>Against the predictions of virtually every economist in the land, proving yet again how little they understand, the RBA dropped its official interest rate to depths not seen before. Most of the major lenders have dropped their mortgage rates accordingly.</p>
<p>The same economists who incorrectly predicted the RBA board’s decision will also tell you that record low interest rates equals a property boom. Goodness knows where that comes from – certainly not from any historical precedent and certainly not from the experience of recent years where only Sydney has had a market worthy of being described as a boom (no, not even Melbourne’s performance warrants the boom tag).</p>
<p>I note that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens doesn’t see the rate cut reigniting boom scenarios. "In reaching today's decision, the board took careful note of developments in the housing market, where indications are that the effects of supervisory measures are strengthening lending standards and that price pressures have tended to abate," he said in a statement. "At present, the potential risks of lower interest rates in this area are less than they were a year ago."</p>
<p>So I don’t expect the rate cut, replicated by three of the four major banks, to generate anything dramatic in the market. But it will generally help the psyche of property consumers. And the next affordability index will likely show a further improvement.</p>
<p>On the same day, Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison delivered his first Budget, which reiterated strongly that negative gearing won't change, nor will investors be slugged more on capital gains tax.</p>
<p>“We will not remove or limit negative gearing,” Morrison said in his Budget speech. “Those earning less than $80,000 make up two-thirds of those who use negative gearing. They are teachers, nurses, police officers, office workers and tradesmen. We do not consider that taxing them more on their investments is a plan for jobs and growth.”</p>
<p>Amen to that. The tragic thing about those who justify their anti-gearing stance on the grounds that it’s all about housing affordability is that scrapping negative gearing won’t make housing cheaper. Even Bill Shorten says it won’t force down the value of homes, therefore affordability won’t improve. Shorten, like so many others, doesn’t understand the affordability issue and is targeting the wrong culprits.</p>
<p>Another event on Tuesday was publication of building approvals data which showed there’s still some life in building approvals, although the monthly bounce may be an aberration because the longer-term trend is down (from record high levels, it must be said).</p>
<p>This closely followed the release of price data for April, which shows that the home value index has risen in the past three months of the year in seven of the eight capital cities.</p>
<p>That includes a 3.9% rise in Sydney. That would tend to rubbish claims of a collapse in values and a bursting of the bubble. I say “tend” because this is one set of figures from one source and it’s not uncommon for another major source to publish figures that are largely contradictory.</p>
<p>Based on the CoreLogic numbers, however, Adelaide’s prices rose 4.5% in the past three months and Brisbane was up 2.8%. I’ve been predicting good growth in those two cities, but I’m not getting overly excited because of what I said in the previous paragraph.</p>
<p>But, according to these figures, even Perth and Darwin showed glimmers of price growth in the latest quarter.</p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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Going against economists show how little the RBA understands:Terry Ryder

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>Consumer confidence rose +1.2 per cent last week to 93.5, according to ANZ-Roy Morgan, a 13-week high.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, confidence levels remain well below the monthly average since 1990 of 112.6, and even still a reading of 93.5 is equivalent to what Australia experienced through the financial crisis. </div>
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<div><em>Source: ANZ-Roy Morgan</em></div>
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<div>On March 29 the COVID shock saw consumer confidence reading hit the lowest level in half a century at 65.3, but it has since rebounded by 43 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Curiously confidence levels in Melbourne have picked up this week to a level 'a touch below neutral' -  possibly on optimism of restrictions being eased - and confidence levels in Melbourne are now higher than in Sydney. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>RBA update</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The RBA put out some state level payroll jobs figures this week which showed that jobs have been steadily picking up elsewhere, but not in Victoria. </div>
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<p>However, the payrolls recovery has stalled this week, and indeed it cannot really take hold until the Victorian economy sees restrictions broadly eased. </p>
<div>Separate analysis from UBS highlighted how small businesses have disproportionately felt the pain this year, and this is reflected in hiring figures relative to large businesses. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This has raised the prospect of a potential further reduction of interest rates, as discussed today by the RBA’s Guy Debelle.</div>
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<div>The RBA has now expanded its balance sheet significantly, almost doubling from from $170 billion in February to $300 billion, through its various policy measures. with a further 'decently large' expansion to come. </div>
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<div>In the money markets swap rates are now at record lows. </div>
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<div>Banks are now allowing their offshore funding to roll off, which has reduced the share of offshore bonds funding, and this has been replaced by take-up of the cheaper Term Funding Facility (TFF). </div>
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<div>It's interesting to note that the Chinese economy has come surging back from its 10 per cent decline in the March 2020 quarter, to the extent that its output is now greater than it was at the end of 2019, as targeted stimulus measures have successfully bolstered production.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div>Australia has gone down a different route, focusing instead on income support, to the extent that household income actually <em>increased</em> over the previous quarter, which is a very unusual outcome for a recession.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was driven by a range of factors including lower interest rates, super withdrawals, mortgage and rent deferrals, and all of the various government stimulus measures (including JobKeeper payments, and JobSeeker). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>No wonder them Harvey Norman shares have come roaring back! </div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><span> </span>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Consumer confidence hits three month high: Pete Wargent

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<p>New research from Aussie home loans has revealed that uncertainty arising as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is leading two thirds (65%) of Australians with property plans to lose confidence in their ability to achieve their property goals.</p>
<p>Consumer confidence in the property market has also collapsed from 76 percent in January of this year, to just 46 percent in June.</p>
<p>More than 6 in 10 – or 61 percent – of respondents further indicated that the pandemic has resulted in changes to their property plans, including a third (35%) who say they have delayed them.</p>
<p>The research, commissioned by leading mortgage broker Aussie, asked the same questions of Australians pre-pandemic in January, and again in June, highlighting the doubt COVID-19 has cast over Australians’ plans to buy or refinance their homes.</p>
<p>Despite the uncertainties, 42 percent of Australians said they want to take advantage of the market, but do not know how. This has led to over half (54%) wanting more guidance when it comes to their property and finances, while a third (36%) said they would be more likely to engage a broker now to help them better navigate the property market. </p>
<p>Aussie customer data supports the statistics, with enquires remaining relatively steady. Aussie saw a 1.8 percent increase between January to July 2020, relative to the same time period last year, while lodgements are up 16 percent year-on-year, showing that that many Australians are looking for ways to navigate the current environment to see how they can make their property plans a reality.</p>
<p>Aussie Chief Executive Officer, James Symond, said the strong number of enquiries shows that there is still interest in the market.</p>
<p>“There are many opportunities available right now that could make it favourable for Australians to enter the market, invest, downsize or refinance, including lender cashback incentives, reduced interest rates and government initiatives, such as the First Home Owner Grant, the $25,000 HomeBuilder grant, and the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme (FHLDS),” Symond said.</p>
<p>“During what has been a challenging time for many Australians, including a change in personal circumstances or financial outlook for some, brokers have an important role to play in helping Australians understand their options and make smart choices to keep their property goals on track,” he concluded.</p>
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Two thirds of Australian lack property confidence during COVID-19: Aussie

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">The worsening coronavirus outbreak and associated rout in financial markets have had a major impact on sentiment this month. The Index has hit a five year low. In fact it is the second lowest level of the Index since the Global Financial Crisis when the Index bottomed out at 79, (with an average read of 86.8 over the period).</span></p>
<p>Therefore, while clearly very concerned, consumers are, for now, taking a more balanced approach to the situation than we saw during the GFC. </p>
<p>Other evidence of this can be found by comparing the ‘family finances’ and ‘time to buy a major household item’ components of the Index which registered 63.7 and 88.2 respectively at the low point of the GFC compared to the current reads of 82.7 and 111.4 respectively.</p>
<p>The survey detail shows consumers are rightly concerned about the near term outlook for the economy but are less perturbed about their finances or the longer term outlook for the economy. That is consistent with the notion that virus-related disruptions will be large but temporary.</p>
<p>At the time of last month’s survey, there were just over thirty thousand confirmed cases of COVID-19 with over 99% in China. A month later there are well over one hundred thousand cases globally with a quarter of these recorded outside of China, with infections rising rapidly in many countries.</p>
<p>Financial markets have also reacted sharply. After showing little change in February, the ASX dropped 11.5% between the February and March surveys (and by a further 4.5% since the latest survey closed). These falls have been despite a 25bp rate cut from the RBA and an emergency 50bp rate cut from the US FOMC. </p>
<p>Responses to additional questions on news recall show by far the highest recall was for news on the economy – 45% of consumers recalling news on this topic with over 85% saying that news as unfavourable. News on ‘international conditions’ also had a relatively high recall rate (25%) and was also assessed by around 85% of respondents as unfavourable. </p>
<p>About 20% of consumers recalled news on ‘interest rates’. The RBA cut rates by 0.25% at its March meeting. However, we again saw consumers assess this news more negatively than usual. As we have noted previously, the favourable/unfavourable mix on ‘interest rate’ news following rate cuts over the five years to 2016 was around 50/50 but has been closer to 30/70 for cuts in 2019 and 2020. That lukewarm response is despite the major banks passing on the rate cut in full to mortgage interest rates.</p>
<p>Across the five component sub-indexes, the biggest fall was around expectations for the economy, particularly over the near term. The ‘economy, next 12 months’ sub-index recorded a spectacular 12.8% drop taking it to 77.9, a five year low but still comfortably above the GFC low of 62.9. In contrast, the ‘economy, next 5 years’ sub-index only fell 1.3%, to 90.4. Clearly consumers expect very challenging conditions near term but are less concerned about medium term prospects.</p>
<p>Assessments of family finances were relatively stable. The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index rose 1.8% although at 82.7 it remains 6.6% below the historical average. Despite the recent carnage in equity markets respondents were balanced about the 12 month outlook for their finances with ‘finances, next 12 months’ sub-index down by only 1.7%.<br>Notably, despite the RBA’s 25bp rate cut and that move by major banks to reduce mortgage rates by the full 25bps, sentiment amongst consumers with a mortgage declined 2.8% in the month.</p>
<p>At the same time, sentiment amongst older age groups fell more sharply, particularly those aged over 65 (–13.8%). This likely reflects several factors including the impact of lower deposit rates on incomes, the hit to superannuation from the sharemarket sell off and perhaps also a higher degree of concern about health risks from the coronavirus, which has a markedly higher fatality rate amongst those in older age groups.</p>
<p><strong>BILL EVANS</strong><em> is Westpac's chief economist</em></p>
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Consumer Sentiment falls to a five year low: Bill Evans

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<p><em><a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/March/er20190312BullAustralianBusinessConditionsFeb.pdf">E</a>XPERT OBSERVER</em></p>
<p>As the 2019 year draws towards a close, conditions in the Australian economy remain weak. Policy stimulus is struggling to gain traction. The NAB business survey for November reports that business conditions have stabilised at low levels.</p>
<p>The survey was conducted from November 19 to 29. Given this timing, the survey is unlikely to have fully captured the recent “sales” - with Black Friday falling on November 29 and Cyber Monday on December 2.</p>
<p>The business conditions index was unchanged at +4, a below average reading. The index has moved broadly sideways since April, after tumbling from +19 over the first half of 2018.</p>
<p>Business confidence fell by 2pts to 0, reversing the 2pt lift in October. Confidence rallied in May, after the Federal election, but the bounce was short-lived. The lack of confidence is understandable in this challenging environment - with weak domestic sales and a slowing global economy, with heightened uncertainty around international trade.</p>
<p>The private business surveys correctly foreshadowed the sharp loss of momentum in the Australian economy from mid-2018, a shift that was led by the home building cycle turning from boom-to-bust, as well as by consumers.</p>
<p>Australia’s September quarter economic report card was another disappointing one - confirming feeble and uneven growth, at 1.7% for the year. The private sector economy is in recession, with private demand contracting by 0.3% in the quarter and declining by 0.4% over the year.</p>
<p>The NAB survey suggests that weak conditions have extended into the December quarter and there is a lack of momentum heading into 2020.</p>
<p>As to business conditions detail for November: trading conditions fell by 1pt to +6; profitability improved but remained weak, up 3pts to +3; and employment conditions moved sideways, at +4.</p>
<p>The survey suggests that employment conditions at this level are consistent with job gains averaging 18k per month near-term (down a little from the 20k per month average for the 2019 year to date).</p>
<p>We note that recently the official jobs data has fallen into line with the more downbeat forward indicators from the private business surveys to be consistent with the sluggish output results. The six month annualised pace of jobs growth has slowed to 1.6%, down from 2.5% in March.</p>
<p>Forward orders are weak, after a one-off gain in October, falling by 5pts to -2.</p>
<p>By industry, while aggregate business conditions have stabilised there has been some shift in the mix. The goods sectors have tended to weaken further since April, while services have improved somewhat. The consumer sectors have lifted off their lows, but retail is still as weak levels.</p>
<p>By state, weakness in trend business conditions is broadly based. Of note, the survey reports that conditions have eased in recent months in WA, mirroring the trend in the mining sector, as commodity prices moderate. Over the past three months, conditions in Qld are reportedly the softest of any of the states.</p>
<p><em>Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/December/er20191210BullAustralianBusinessConditions2019Nov.pdf">'Australian business conditions November' (PDF 201kb)</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>ANDREW HANLAN </strong>i<em>s a senior economist for Westpac</em><br></em></p>
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Australian business conditions & confidence stablise: Andrew Hanlan

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<p>Consumer confidence fell over the weekend, an ANZ survey has suggested.</p>
<p>It appears there is a view the latest cut to the cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia was a signal of worsening economic conditions.</p>
<p>The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index dipped 1.1% from the previous week, with respondents' perception of the economy - including the outlook for the next 12 months - retreating 3.6% and prospects about conditions in the next five years sliding 1.7%.</p>
<p>But the weekly measure of sentiment showed a 3.7% rise in how people felt about their financial condition compared to a year ago.</p>
<p>It was based on about 1,000 face-to-face interviews conducted on Saturdays and Sunday.</p>
<p>Consumer sentiment is still above the average of 114.4 points held since 2014 and the longer term average of 113.1 points since 1990. </p>
<p>But three out of the five major components of the index fell last week:</p>
<ul>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +9.0 points to +13.0 points; </li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +25.5 points to +27.1 points;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from +7.2 points to +3.3 points;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +12.8 points to +10.9 points; </li>
<li>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +40.3 points to +33.8 points. </li>
</ul>
<p>The measure of inflation expectations rose from 3.7% to 3.9%.</p>
<p>NAB's latest business survey also suggested that the business sector has lost significant momentum over the past year with the recent run of results also suggesting that the economy is unlikely to record a significant pickup in growth in Q2.</p>
<p>According to the survey, the weakening in momentum has been broad-based across the business sector over the past year, with all industries having weakened.</p>
<p>Retail also continues to show ongoing malaise, with reported business conditions at a level last seen in the GFC - while manufacturing has also shown steep declines.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/10/NAB%20Business%20Confidence%20June.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Alan Oster, NAB Groups Chief Economist said, “business confidence appears to have unwound its spike in May, which we think was driven by a short-term election bounce and increased optimism around a renewed interest rate easing cycle by the RBA."</span></p>
<p><span>“While business conditions increased slightly in the month, they remain well below average after trending lower for over a year now. The decrease in conditions has been relatively broad-based across states and industries – suggesting that there has been sector wide loss of momentum over the past year."</span></p>
<p><span>“Forward looking indicators suggest that there is unlikely to be a material improvement in conditions over the next few months with forward orders remaining very weak. This suggests the pipeline of demand is weak and is consistent with below average confidence,” Mr Oster concluded.</span></p>
<p>Sentiment also fell in <a href="/expert-insights/investing/sentiment-falls-4-1-despite-interest-rate-cuts-and-tax-relief-westpac">Westpac's Consumer Sentiment Survey</a>.</p>
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Second RBA rate cut dampens consumer confidence: ANZ-Roy Morgan

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<p>Consumers continue to mark down their expectations for house prices albeit with a choppy profile in recent months, according to Westpac's latest Red Book.</p>
<p>A very weak March was followed by a surprising strong lift in April.</p>
<p>Overall, the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index is down a further 0.3% since January.</p>
<p>Westpac economists suggest that likely understates the weakening with the first few months of the year typically seeing a seasonal rise in price expectations. </p>
<p>At 95.6 the Index remains around the lowest levels since we began compiling it in 2009.</p>
<p>Earlier figures from a survey by Mortgage Choice suggest current reads are above GFC lows.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/18/Redbook%20House%20Prices%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Of those consumers with a view, 32% now expect prices to rise over the next year, 32% expect no change and 36% expect falls.</p>
<p>The state breakdown continues to show a more bearish mix in NSW (30%:29%:41%) and Victoria (26%:29%:45%).</p>
<p>Notably, the price weakening in Perth does not appear to have weighed as heavily on price expectations.</p>
<p>The biggest downgrade in expectations over the last three months has been among Queenslanders.</p>
<p>Prices have continued to weaken in early 2019 albeit with some hints of milder declines in the last three months, although some of this may reflect seasonality with prices typically a touch firmer early in the year.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/18/Redbook%20House%20Prices%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
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