Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Cameron Kusher

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The Reserve Bank (RBA) last week released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting for February 2019.
One of the things that really stood out for me was the commentary relating to the housing market, specifically relating to the impact of falling prices. The following quote is taken straight from the minutes:
"From a longer-run perspective, members assessed that, following such large increases in housing prices, the effect of the recent price falls on overall economic activity was expected to be relatively small. However, members observed that if prices were to fall much further, consumption could be weaker than forecast, which would result in lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and lower inflation than forecast. From a financial stability perspective, tighter lending standards, an improving labour market and low interest rates were all likely to support households' capacity to service their debt. Few households were in negative equity positions despite the falls in housing prices, implying that banks' losses would be limited even if household financial stress were to become more widespread."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/26/household%20consumption%201%20.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/26/household%20consumption%201%20.png" alt=""> 
While it would be great to know how much further the RBA believes dwelling values would have to fall to start affecting consumption, it is looking inevitable that dwelling values will fall further over the coming months. As the above chart shows, values have now declined from their peak across each of the five largest cities in Australia, values have also recorded a significant decline over recent years in Darwin, and a more recent monthly fall in Hobart. Many other regions, including regional areas of most states and territories have recorded falls in dwelling values, with values in Regional Qld and Regional WA sitting lower than their peak for more than a decade now. The decline in dwelling values doesn’t appear to be close to finding a floor yet. This is particularly the case in the two largest markets of Sydney in Melbourne. In fact, if anything the rate of decline in both of these cities has been accelerating over recent months.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/26/household%20consumption%202.png" alt="">
The concerns about the impact of a declining housing market on household consumption are well founded. Household consumption accounts for more than half of gross domestic product (GDP) so if consumption slows, it is very likely that economic growth will also slow. To-date household consumption has been steady however; consumption isn’t growing as it did before the financial crisis and it has slowed over recent years.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/26/household%20consumption%203.png" alt=""> 
At the same time as consumption has underperformed, the household saving ratio has reduced over recent quarters, highlighting that households are saving less.  While the ratio has not fallen to the lows recorded during the 2000s it is clear that households are saving a lot less than they were initial post-GFC and this is despite inflation remaining consistently below 2%. To-date the reduction in saving has not provided a boost to household consumption and in fact, more regularly released retail trade data shows that expenditure at the shops has reduced which doesn’t bode well for consumption figures going forward.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/26/household%20consumption%204.png" alt=""> 
 
Over the 2018 calendar year, retail trade increased by 2.8%. By comparison, compound annual growth in retail trade over the past decade has been recorded at 3.3%. NSW where dwelling values are recording the greatest declines has seen retail trade increase by 1.7% over the past year, the slowest annual rate of change since March 2012. Not only is NSW the largest and most expensive housing market, it also accounts for almost one-third of national retail trade. If trade continues to slow in the largest state, it is unlikely to bode well for household consumption going forward. Given the already declining housing market, which looks set to continue, slower household consumption, below target inflation, reduced household savings and slowing retail trade, it looks likely that household consumption growth will slow further over coming quarters. As the RBA states that could lead to slower economic growth and in-turn necessitate an interest rate cut. The RBA board next meets on the 5th March. Between then and now a raft of additional data will be released including: the CoreLogic Home Value Index, private sector credit data, building approvals data and a range of inputs for the National Accounts. Unfortunately, National Accounts will not be released until the day after the RBA board meeting however, they will have plenty of new information to assess. Will it be weak enough to necessitate a rate cut? Who knows, but with the RBA shifting to a more neutral interest rate outlook, a run of poor data could see the next RBA meeting become ‘live’ for a rate cut despite not having the full data from the National Accounts until the following day. Personally, I don’t think the RBA will be ready to cut official interest rates next month but with each data release I am more convinced a rate cut is looking more likely. In fact, labour force data which has been showing an ongoing decline in the unemployment rate is the only data release which is overly positive at the moment.
Cameron Kusher is a Research Analyst at CoreLogic.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Consumption could slow with expectations of further housing value falls: Cameron Kusher

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First home buyers have become more active in the housing market over the past year.
There has been a number of reasons for this, dwelling values have been falling which has improved affordability lessened the deposit hurdle, other segments of the market have been less active (less competition) and attractive incentives have been offered to first home buyers in certain states. The latest data on housing finance from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for December 2018 shows that perhaps that trend is reversing.
Note that all the data is seasonally adjusted so the slowdown isn’t likely to be related to seasonality.
In December 2018, there were 8,476 finance commitments by owner-occupier first home buyers which was the fewest monthly commitments since June 2017. Commitments were also -9.6% lower over the month and down -12.6% year-on-year. Although the number of commitments was lower, as a share of all owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinances) the share of first home buyers shifted only slightly from 26.8% the previous month to 26.4% in December 2018. The minimal change in share is reflective of the overall weakening demand for mortgages.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project.png" alt="">
NSW
Across the state, there were 2,232 first home buyer commitments to owner-occupiers in December 2018, which was the fewest since July 2017. The number of commitments was -5.2% lower over the month and -3.0% lower year-on-year. In terms of the share of total owner- occupier finance commitments, first home buyers were 24.0% of the NSW market (excluding refinance) which was up from 23.6% over the previous month. However, overall owner-occupier mortgage demand (excluding refinances) has fallen by a larger -6.1% over the month compared to the -5.2% fall across the first home buyer segment.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/27/image.png" alt="">
Vic
The 2,604 first home buyer finance commitments in December 2018 were the fewest since June 2017. First home buyer commitments were -7.7% lower over the month and -14.8% lower year-on-year however, overall owner occupier commitments excluding refinances recorded a larger monthly fall (-10.4%). As a result, the share of owner-occupier housing finance commitments compared to total commitments (excluding refinances) actually rose over the month to 29.0%, its highest share since July 2013.
Given this, the share is rising however; it is rising on falling volumes for both first homebuyers and overall owner-occupiers.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%202.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%202.png" alt="">
Qld
Both the number of first home buyer finance commitments and the share of first home buyers compared to new lending fell in December. Over the month, there were 1,586 owner-occupier first home buyer commitments, which was -11.1% lower over the month and -23.2% lower year-on-year. It was also the fewest first home buyer commitments since October 2015. Looking at first home buyers as a share of total new owner-occupier lending, first home buyers represented 24.3% of lending, their lowest overall share since February 2017.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%203.png" alt="">
SA
The 495 first home buyer finance commitments in December 2018 was down -6.4% on the previous month but was 2.3% higher than a year earlier. The number of first home buyer commitments in December 2018 was the lowest it has been since July 2018. First home buyer demand for new mortgages fell faster than overall demand for new mortgages and as a result, the share of owner-occupier new finance commitments to first home buyers fell from 21.6% the previous month to 20.9% in December 2019.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%204.png" alt="">
WA
The 1,164 first home buyer finance commitments in December 2018 was the fewest since June 2018. First home buyer commitments were -5.4% lower over the month and -12.7% lower year-on-year. As a share of total new lending to owner-occupiers, first home buyers in WA are active and account for 34.3% of total new lending with the share rising over the month. The relative strength of the first home buyer market is also reflective of the overall weakness in demand from non-first home buyer owner-occupiers across the state.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%205.png" alt="">
Tas
There were 154 owner-occupier first home buyer commitments in December 2018. The 154 commitments was the fewest since May 2018 with the number -8.3% lower over the month but 8.5% higher year-on-year. The sharp fall in first home buyer commitments saw them fall as a share of overall new lending to owner-occupiers, recorded at 19.7% over the month. The 19.7% share was down from 21.5% the previous month and the lowest share since April 2018.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%206.png" alt="">
NT
Because it is such a small market, first home buyer volumes tend to be quite volatile. In December 2018, there were 81 first home buyer finance commitments, which was 2.5% higher over the month and 28.6% higher year-on-year. While first home buyer lending increased, new lending to owner occupiers fell significantly over the month leading to the share of new lending to first home buyers spiking to 42.4% from 36.4% the previous month.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/image.png" alt="">
ACT
There were 191 first home buyer finance commitments in December 2018. Although commitments were -15.1% lower over the month and - 16.2% lower year-on-year there had been fewer first home buyer commitments in September 2018 (182). First home buyer demand fell much more substantially over the month than overall demand to owner occupiers, as a result, the share of new owner occupier lending to first home buyers was recorded at 24.0%, down from 26.3% over the previous demand.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/image%201.png" alt="">
To-date, the first home buyer segment has been the one source of growing demand across the housing market. Although the weakness has only been apparent for a few months, it will be important to watch going forward. With an entrenched downturn in lending to investors and owner occupier demand falling sharply, if first home buyer activity drops it could lead to a further leg down in value declines across the market. The more pragmatic potential first home buyers are probably seeing values decline and despite incentives, they realise that if they remain on the sidelines the properties they are targeting could be becoming even more obtainable over the coming months.
CAMERON KUSHER is a Research Analyst at CoreLogic.
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Are first home buyers waiting on the sideline? CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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Data for lending to households and businesses data for December 2018 was released earlier this week.
This data series replaces the old housing finance and lending finance series and includes some different data. Specifically focusing on lending to households the data shows that the weakening of demand for mortgages has continued.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic1.png" alt="pic1.png" width="842" height="355" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bb33c8c9-5ed9-47d3-a589-bf7f9843bf66" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic1.png">
 As the above chart shows, investor mortgage lending has been weakening for some time however, over recent months there has been a rapid slowdown in lending to owner-occupiers. Over the month, there was a total of $26.0 billion in mortgage finance to borrowers which was the lowest monthly value since January 2014. The value of mortgage lending has fallen -5.2% over the month and is -15.2% year-on-year. Looking at the split between owner-occupier and investor mortgage lending, there was $18.5 billion worth of finance commitments to owner occupiers which was -5.3% lower than the previous month and its lowest value since May 2015. The remaining $7.5 billion worth of finance to investors was -4.8% lower over the month and the lowest monthly value since April 2013. While the slowdown in mortgage demand began, and is well entrenched, across the investor segment, owner-occupier mortgage demand is now also falling rapidly.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic2.png" alt="pic2.png" width="802" height="338" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b08c7e3c-d4d4-48b8-9ecd-078d9723d53f" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic2.png">
 Looking a little more granularly at the data, over the month there was $12.5 billion worth of owner-occupier finance commitments excluding refinance, $6.0 billion worth of owner occupier refinance commitments, $4.9 billion worth of non-refinance commitments to investors and $2.6 billion worth of investor refinances. The chart highlights a weakening of demand across each of these four categories however, refinance demand is generally holding up better than non-refinance. New lending to owner-occupiers is the lowest it has been since May 2015, owner occupier refinances are the lowest they’ve been since August 2017, investor new lending is at its lowest value since January 2012 and investor refinance lending is the lowest it has been since August 2018. 
The data clearly shows that housing finance commitments are falling the bigger question is what is the actual driver of the falls. According to recent commentary from the Reserve Bank in their Statement on Monetary Policy, demand is falling because of ‘significantly fewer loan applications over the past year or more.’ Personally, I am not necessarily convinced this is the only reason.
The volumes that eventually make their way to lending teams are likely to be significantly lower but is this actually occurring because of fewer people wanting a mortgage or fewer making it that far? I suspect that demand has certainly fallen but possibly it has fallen a greater amount because people are talking to the bank lender or mortgage broker and the feedback they are given is that there is no point applying because with current credit conditions this just isn’t going to get approved.
Looking at it another way, credit conditions remain tighter than they have been in many years. Although the 10% cap on investment credit growth and 30% interest-only origination limit have been removed (largely because they became redundant), both investor and interest-only borrowers continue to be charged a premium compared to owner-occupier mortgages. Furthermore, lenders are now asking a lot more questions about household expenditure than they have in the past rather than relying on an index of household expenditure. Although this may be a new normal, in the past, potential borrowers perhaps haven’t had to be so mindful of their expenditure prior to a mortgage application and there will be a period of adjustment to these new conditions.
In the past borrowers have tended to adjust their expenditure appropriately once they have taken on the mortgage rather than now when the adjustment has to be made prior to obtaining approval for the mortgage. Finally, when applying for a mortgage, borrowers are being assessed on their ability to repay a mortgage at an interest rate above 7% while most lenders will offer a new borrower a discounted variable at around or below 4%. The current cash rate futures yield curve is now suggesting a reduction in official interest rates is more likely than a hike. In my mind, 7% mortgage rates are a long way off and we won’t be getting back to those levels absent some decent household income growth.
While in isolation these individual changes to credit policy changes may not remove many potential borrowers, the combination of these changes likely result in far fewer borrowers being considered credit-worthy for a mortgage. Therefore, while application volumes are likely lower, the blame can’t solely be pointed at fewer applications when the process for applying for a mortgage has changed so dramatically over recent years.
CAMERON KUSHER is a Research Analyst at CoreLogic.
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Is it tighter credit or fewer applications hitting mortgage demand? CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
According to the CoreLogic Home Value Index, dwelling values have recorded some substantial falls over the 12 months to January 2019. Four of the eight capital cities have recorded dwelling value falls while four of the seven rest of state markets have also experienced declines.
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/001%2012%20month%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales.emf__0.jpg" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/001%2012%20month%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales.emf__0.jpg" alt="001 12 month change in dwelling vales.emf_.jpg" width="1050" height="559" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f21356ec-de3e-4809-acaf-7e17f28fcdf4" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
Nationally, dwelling values have fallen by -5.6% over the 12 months to January 2019 which is their largest annual fall since March 2009.
Combined capital city dwelling values were -6.9% lower over the past year while combined regional markets saw much more moderate value falls of -0.8%.  
For the combined capital cities, the -6.9% fall is the largest since February 2009 while the -0.8% fall across regional markets is the largest since October 2012. The recent declines in dwelling values are very much a different situation to the one that has played out over the past 20 years.
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/002%2020%20year%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/002%2020%20year%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" alt="002 20 year change in dwelling vales.jpg" width="1012" height="542" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7ab6cac4-2830-4ad3-b5d0-f34972df29df" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
 Over the past 20 years, national dwelling values have increased by 197.4% with the combined capital cities recording stronger total value growth (212.4%) than the combined regional markets (150.3%).  
Looking at the individual capital cities, Melbourne has recorded the greatest value gains over the period (274.6%) while Darwin value growth has been the most moderate (38.4%).  The weak growth in Darwin has been driven by values falling by almost 26% since peaking in mid-2014.  
Across the individual rest of state regions, growth has been strongest in regional NSW (185.6%) and weakest in regional WA (77.5%).  Darwin and regional WA were the only two major regions of the country where values have not doubled over the past 20 years. Within the past 20 years there have been many housing cycles so the following graphs will show how each region has seen values change over the 20 years within five year increments. The five years to January 2004 was the strongest five-year period for value growth over the past 20 years, with national dwelling values increasing by 80.2%.  Over the period, the total growth in values across the combined capital cities (79.6%) and the combined regional markets (82.0%) was remarkably similar.  In fact, it was also the only five-year period in which value growth was stronger in regional markets than in capital cities.
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/003%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/003%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" alt="003 5 years change in dwelling vales.jpg" width="1088" height="579" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="55120ca7-ddde-48d9-a9d7-54abca62c8ae" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
 Over the five years to January 2004, capital city value growth was greatest within Canberra (110.9%) and weakest within Darwin (-3.9%). While values in Darwin fell, the next weakest growth in capital city values was Perth (63.5%).  Across the regional markets, values saw little growth over the five years in regional WA (24.4%) and regional NT (28.9%) while elsewhere value growth was quite strong with values doubling in regional NSW (108.8%). Following the strong value growth between 1999 and 2004, the growth in dwelling values over the five years to January 2009 was generally much more circumspect.  Over the period, national dwelling values increased by 14.9% with a 15.2% rise across the combined capital city markets and a 14.2% increase throughout the combined regional markets.  While the headline figures show little growth, it was quite a different story within different regions with some of the smaller housing markets experiencing big gains.  
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/004%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/004%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" alt="004 5 years change in dwelling vales.jpg" width="1016" height="541" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="07eba968-8ad9-4b1a-ae57-dacf97b00270" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
 Across the individual capital cities, Perth (52.3%) and Hobart (57.1%) recorded the strongest value growth over the five years to January 2009.  Sydney was the weakest capital city market for value growth over the five years with values falling by 4.6%.  In regional markets, regional WA was booming on the back of the mining boom with values increasing by 80.9% over the five years.  Although regional NSW recorded the strongest value growth over the previous five years, it was the weakest market during this period with values falling -3.4%. The five years to January 2014 marks the period following the GFC and saw the mining boom come to an end.  Low interest rates and market stimulus saw values rise 20.3% nationally during the five years.  The growth in values over the period was almost entirely driven by the combined capital cities (25.3%) with very little value growth across he combined regional markets (4.8%).  
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/005%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/005%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" alt="005 5 years change in dwelling vales.jpg" width="1041" height="554" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="25d6caea-fc23-4f56-bdc5-04cb6f5db9fd" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
 Across the capital cities, values growth in Sydney (36.5%) and Melbourne (32.3%) was much stronger than elsewhere with Brisbane (5.0%) experiencing the weakest growth.  In regional markets, values declined by -2.0% over the five years in regional Qld while regional NT (30.2%) experienced the greatest increase in values over the period. Over the most recent five years, national dwelling values have increased by 19.4%.  The combined capital cities index has increased by 20.6% while the combined regional market index is 14.9% higher.  
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/006%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" target="_blank">Click </a>to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/006%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" alt="006 5 years change in dwelling vales.jpg" width="1003" height="534" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="65a12c3b-534e-469a-8054-05d3fb2a2272" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
 Across the individual capital cities, Perth (-15.6%) and Darwin (-24.4%) have recorded large falls while Hobart (35.1%) has experienced the strongest value growth.  In the regional markets, values have fallen in regional SA(-1.1%), regional WA (-22.6%) and regional NT (-7.3%) while regional NSW has recorded the largest value increase (28.2%). While past performance is certainly not an indicator of future performance, the data shows that over the past two decades most regions have seen some substantial increases in dwelling values.  The data also shows that over five year increments, the best regions for growth in a given five-year period are typically the weaker areas for growth over the following five years.  Given substantial growth over recent years in markets such as Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart that may provide some insight into the performance of these cities over the coming years. Of course, the housing market has a number of headwinds that have not been seen for some time.  Throughout most of the past 20 years, credit has been becoming easier to access, since late 2014 credit has increasingly become harder to access.  Furthermore, ongoing strong value growth in Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart has seen housing affordability rapidly deteriorate over recent years.  Finally, economic conditions outside of NSW and Vic have tended to be quite weak over recent years which has curtailed housing demand in these markets.
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic.
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The Australian capital cities that saw substantial house price gains over past two decades: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank (RBA) has released its financial aggregates data for October 2018.  The housing credit data is of particular interest.  It covers data from all local mortgage lenders and measures the value of mortgages outstanding.  The data is important because it highlights the expansion or contraction in credit.
As at the end of October 2018 there was $1.797 trillion in outstanding housing credit.  Housing was overwhelmingly the largest share of outstanding credit, accounting for 62.1% of total credit.  Looking at the split between owner occupier and investor credit, owner occupiers accounted for 67.0% of outstanding credit while investors accounted for 33.0% which is that cohort’s lowest share since June 2012.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20in%20house%20credit.png" alt="change in house credit" width="1017" height="256" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="677891bb-3eda-4d6f-b1e4-e67f74329956" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20in%20house%20credit.png">
 Total housing credit increased by 0.3% in October 2018 which was its slowest monthly rate of growth since July 1984. The monthly expansion in housing credit has been consistently slowing since February 2018 when it expanded by just 0.5% during the month. On an annual basis, housing credit has expanded by 5.1% which is its slowest annual expansion since October 2013. While the slowdown in credit growth was initially being led by investors, credit growth for owner occupiers is now also slowing.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20owner%20occupier%20credit.png" alt="change owner occupier credit" width="993" height="250" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a3e4f229-9c47-484f-8c67-6e521303edcf" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20owner%20occupier%20credit.png">
 Owner occupier housing credit increased by 0.4% in October 2018 which was its slowest monthly growth since April 2015. Owner occupier housing credit increased by 7.0% over the 12 months to October 2018 and that was its annual slowest growth since November 2015. The monthly change in owner occupier credit has been slowing since February 2018 which has slowed annual credit growth form 8.1% to the currently 7.0%.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20investor%20credit.png" alt="change investor credit" width="978" height="247" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c4f385f9-69ec-4e92-a70e-377e5f39dbf8" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20investor%20credit.png">
 Investor credit recorded a nominal increase of less than 0.1% in October 2018 which was its smallest monthly change since credit fell by -0.1% in June 2018. The monthly change in investor credit has been minimal for a number of years now which is resulting in the weakest annual expansion in investor credit on record. Over the past 12 months, investor credit has expanded by just 1.3%.
It should be noted that the expansion in credit to investors is certainly being driven by fewer new originations (as highlighted in monthly housing finance commitments data). What is less clear but is also likely to be a factor is the ongoing shift from investors away from interest-only mortgages and towards principal and interest. Note that RBA reports around 70% of interest-only mortgages are to investors. In terms of new interest-only lending, APRA reported in the June 2018 quarter that $15.74 billion worth of new interest only mortgages was committed to which was its second lowest quarterly value any time since March 2008. Furthermore, the total value of outstanding interest-only mortgages has fallen to $461.329 billion, its lowest value since September 2014. As borrowers move from interest-only arrangements in which the principal isn’t repaid, to principal and interest mortgages, outstanding credit to investors is expected to keep falling especially as overall investor and interest-only new lending also continues to fall.
Overall, the reduction in housing credit can be attributed to the tighter credit environment, however a range of other factors are also at play in tempering housing credit, including low consumer sentiment, housing affordability constraints and higher mortgage rates. We expect housing credit growth to remain weak. With fewer transactions in the market and ongoing value declines it is reasonable to expect a further slowing of housing credit demand over the coming months.
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More signs the housing market is slowing further: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As dwelling values and transactions decline and stock for sale mounts properties are taking longer to sell across most regions of the country.
Over the three months to October 2018, properties nationally had a median time on market of 53 days.
As the first chart shows there has been a clear increase in days on market of late, up from 42 days a year ago and a recent low of 38 days in December 2017.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%201.JPG" alt=""><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
Across the combined capital cities, the median days on market sat at 46 days over the three months to October 2018 compared to 61 days across the combined regional markets.
Across each of these broad regions the days on market figure was higher than during the previous year when it was recorded at 35 days and 55 days respectively.
The capital city days on market figure is now the highest it’s been since March 2016 and across the combined capital cities it is the highest since October 2016.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%203.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
Although the median days on market in Sydney and regional NSW has edged slightly lower over recent months, across both regions, days on market is higher than a year ago.
In Sydney, the median days on market was 31 days a year ago and has increased to 50 days currently which is much higher than the recent low of 24 days in April 2017.
Across regional NSW, days on market currently sits at 64 days compared to 52 days a year ago and a recent low of 48 days in May 2017.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%204.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
In Melbourne, the median time on market is currently recorded at 38 days and in regional Vic it is recorded at 41 days.
In Melbourne, the days on market is trending higher, it is much higher than the 23 days a year ago and the highest it has been since March 2016.
In regional Vic the days on market figure has been trending lower and is down from 49 days a year ago, highlighting the strengthening of housing market conditions in regional Vic as the Melbourne housing market slows.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%205.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
Throughout Queensland, properties are taking longer to sell than they were a year ago.
In Brisbane, the median days on market is currently recorded at 53 days which is the longest it has taken since February 2013 and has increased from 37 days a year ago.
In regional Qld it is typically taking 69 days to sell a home, up from 55 days a year ago with the 69 days the longest it has taken to sell since February 2016.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%206.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
As at October 2018, the median time on market for Adelaide was recorded at 42 days and in regional SA it was recorded at 93 days.
As the chart shows, the days on market figure for Adelaide is trending lower and is down from 55 days a year ago.
In regional SA, days on market has begun to trend higher over recent months however, it is lower than the 102 days it was typically taking a year ago.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%207.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
Perth properties were typically taking 63 days to sell over the three months to October 2018.
The days on market figure for the city is trending higher and is up from 56 days over the same period in 2017.
In regional WA, the days on market figure has been trending higher over recent months however, it is unchanged from a year ago with the median currently recorded at 82 days.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%208.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Properties that transact in Hobart are continuing to sell quickly however, there has been a fairly steep rise in days on market over recent months.
Properties in Hobart took 25 days to sell over the past three months, up from just 10 days a year ago and a recent low of 9 days during a number of months over the past year.
Properties are taking much longer to sell in regional Tas at 45 days however, the days on market figure has fallen from 53 days a year ago.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%209.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
With the ongoing weak housing market conditions properties take a long time to sell across NT.
The small volume of sales also creates volatility in the days on market figure.
In Darwin, it currently takes 90 days to sell a property compared to 100 days a year ago.
In regional NT, it was taking 66 days a year ago which was a shorter days on market than the 74 days currently.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%2010.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Over the three months to October 2018, the median days on market for a Canberra property was 43 days.
The days on market for the city was higher than the 37 days it took at the same time last year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%201.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
Across the nation, the data shows that the trend is towards properties typically taking longer to sell.
This is reflective of the weaker housing market conditions whereby dwelling values are falling with growth slowing in most regions, transaction volumes are lower and the overall stock available for sale continues to climb which provides buyers with more choice and less urgency.
With credit conditions much tighter than they have been over recent years accessing finance is tougher which is a major contributor to weaker overall conditions.
As a result of these trends, it is expected that the median days on market figure will continue to trend higher over the coming months as vendors of ’stale’ inventory eventually adjust their price expectations lower or withdraw their property from the market.
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic.
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Selling conditions weaken as inventories rise and buyer activity fades: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The weakness in housing finance commitments now looks engrained
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for September 2018 earlier today and it showed a further weakening of demand for mortgages. Over the month, the total value of housing finance commitments was recorded at $29.1 billion which was the lowest monthly value since August 2014. While the decline in finance commitments over recent times has been primarily driven by investors, owner occupier demand is now also clearly easing.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%201.jpg" alt=""> 
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Over the month, the $29.1 billion worth of housing finance commitments was split between $19.4 billion to owner occupiers and $9.8 billion to investors. The $19.4 billion worth of commitments to owner occupiers was its lowest monthly value since July 2015 while the $9.8 billion to investors was its lowest monthly value since July 2013. Lending to owner occupiers in September 2018 was -9.4% lower than its monthly peak in February 2018. Housing finance commitments to investors in September 2018 was -33.8% lower than its April 2015 monthly peak.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
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In terms of the different types of owner occupier housing finance commitments, each of the four categories recorded a fall over the month while year-on-year, refinance was the only segment that was higher. Importantly, the two largest components of lending to owner occupiers; refinance and purchase of established were -15.9% and -12.9% below their historic peaks in September 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
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It is a similar story for investors with demand falling across both new construction and established properties, both of which are lower over the month and year-on-year. In fact the September 2018 value of lending to investors for new construction was -46.9% below its peak while lending for established properties was -35.6% lower.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%204.jpg" alt=""> 
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As investor demand has faded from the housing market, demand from owner occupier first home buyers had been trending higher. This lift was largely on the back of introductions of stamp duty free or stamp duty reduced purchases for first home buyers under certain price points in NSW and Vic which became available in July 2017. More recently the data is pointing to an easing of demand from first home buyers. In September 2018 there were 8,693 owner occupier first home buyer commitments which was both lower than the previous year (9,618) and the previous month (9,534). In fact the 8,693 commitments was the lowest monthly number since January 2017 (note the data isn’t seasonally adjusted so January is always much lower than other months) other than that you’d have to go back toJune 2017 to see commitments so low (the month prior to stamp duty concession going live in NSW and Vic).
Given the ongoing declines in dwelling values, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, and the now apparent declines in owner occupier and investor housing finance commitments, it is hard to see a reversal in dwelling value declines or a lift in sales activity any time soon.
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As activity reduces, housing inventory is building up, providing more choice for buyers and little in the way of urgency to make a purchase decision.
The upcoming pause for Christmas and New Year may see some adjustment in the New Year but even that looks unlikely. For the coming months it is expected mortgage demand will continue to fall as will dwelling values.
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic
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Housing finance commitments: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Median values and prices are often quoted in the media but what do they actually mean and what are they reflective of?
CoreLogic’s median value is an estimate of the middle value of all residential properties within a market.
The median is useful for understanding the middle of the market, however across the metropolitan area of our cities there is great deal of diversity in housing values.
To try and provide a bit more depth, we are looking at median values across the five largest capital cities and comparing them to values across the capital city SA4 sub-regions. In Tas and NT we are comparing capital city values to regional SA4 values.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/12/data%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/12/data%201.jpg" alt="">
Sydney’s median dwelling value as at October 2018 was $833,876 and the SA4 region closest in median value was the Inner South West at $840,805.
Most of the areas that have a median value lower than that of greater Sydney are located some distance from the city centre while those with higher values are typically the areas closer to the city centre or along the coastline.
The city’s most affordable SA4 region is Outer South West ($602,246) and the most expensive is Northern Beaches ($1,383,461).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/12/data%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge
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Across Greater Melbourne, the median dwelling value is recorded at $665,044. The city’s most affordable region is West ($578,922) and the most expensive region is Inner East ($1,127,558).
Outside of the highly desirable Eastern and Inner regions values are remarkably similar across the remaining Melbourne regions.
In fact, only the Inner East, Inner South and Outer East have median values that are higher than that of Greater Melbourne.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/12/data%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/12/data%203.jpg" alt=""> 
Brisbane’s median dwelling value is currently $491,925.  While that is substantially lower than Sydney and Melbourne you can see that all of the regions relatively close to the city have current median values which are higher than that.
The most expensive region of the city is the West ($659,554) while the most affordable is Ipswich ($350,511).
Only three SA4 regions of the city actually have a median value which is lower than the city-wide median.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/12/data%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/12/data%204.jpg" alt="">
Greater Adelaide’s median dwelling value was recorded at $431,554 as at October making it the nation’s most affordable capital city housing market.
Throughout the city’s four SA4 regions, Central and Hills is noticeably more expensive than the rest and North is noticeably cheaper.
Central and Hills and West are more expensive than the city-wide median and South and North are cheaper.
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic.
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Housing costs vary widely across capital cities: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for September 2018 earlier today and it showed a further weakening of demand for mortgages.
Over the month, the total value of housing finance commitments was recorded at $29.1 billion which was the lowest monthly value since August 2014.
While the decline in finance commitments over recent times has been primarily driven by investors, owner occupier demand is now also clearly easing.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/Cam1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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Over the month, the $29.1 billion worth of housing finance commitments was split between $19.4 billion to owner occupiers and $9.8 billion to investors. 
The $19.4 billion worth of commitments to owner occupiers was its lowest monthly value since July 2015 while the $9.8 billion to investors was its lowest monthly value since July 2013. 
Lending to owner occupiers in September 2018 was -9.4% lower than its monthly peak in February 2018. Housing finance commitments to investors in September 2018 was -33.8% lower than its April 2015 monthly peak.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/Cam2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/Cam2.jpg" alt=""> 
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In terms of the different types of owner occupier housing finance commitments, each of the four categories recorded a fall over the month while year-on-year, refinance was the only segment that was higher. 
Importantly, the two largest components of lending to owner occupiers; refinance and purchase of established were -15.9% and -12.9% below their historic peaks in September 2018. 
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Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/cam3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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It is a similar story for investors with demand falling across both new construction and established properties, both of which are lower over the month and year-on-year.
 In fact the September 2018 value of lending to investors for new construction was -46.9% below its peak while lending for established properties was -35.6% lower.
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Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/cam4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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As investor demand has faded from the housing market, demand from owner occupier first home buyers had been trending higher. 
This lift was largely on the back of introductions of stamp duty free or stamp duty reduced purchases for first home buyers under certain price points in NSW and Vic which became available in July 2017. More recently the data is pointing to an easing of demand from first home buyers. 
In September 2018 there were 8,693 owner occupier first home buyer commitments which was both lower than the previous year (9,618) and the previous month (9,534). In fact the 8,693 commitments was the lowest monthly number since January 2017 (note the data isn’t seasonally adjusted so January is always much lower than other months) other than that you’d have to go back to June 2017 to see commitments so low (the month prior to stamp duty concession going live in NSW and Vic). 
Given the ongoing declines in dwelling values, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, and the now apparent declines in owner occupier and investor housing finance commitments, it is hard to see a reversal in dwelling value declines or a lift in sales activity any time soon.
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As activity reduces, housing inventory is building up, providing more choice for buyers and little in the way of urgency to make a purchase decision.
The upcoming pause for Christmas and New Year may see some adjustment in the New Year but even that looks unlikely. For the coming months it is expected mortgage demand will continue to fall as will dwelling values.
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic
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The weakness in housing finance commitments now looks engrained: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
According to the latest CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October 2018, national dwelling values have fallen by -3.5% over the past year and are -3.5% lower than their peak. 
Although this is a pretty moderate fall it is interesting to take a look at what this means and where values sit historically.  
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A -3.5% decline in national dwelling values from their peak to October 2018 means that values are now the lowest they’ve been since January 2017.
Given this, if you’ve purchased a property any time since January 2017 it is likely that your property is worth less than you paid for it.
While home owners don’t like to see the value of their assets falling, to put this into perspective values are still 44.8% higher over the past decade and 209.9% higher over the past 20 years.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/2/sydney.jpg" alt=""> 
In Sydney, dwelling values have recorded their largest annual decline since February 1990, falling by -7.4% over the year to October 2018 and now sitting -8.2% lower than their peak in July 2017.  
The Sydney dwelling value index is currently the lowest it has been since September 2016. 
Although values are currently falling, they are still 81.4% higher over the past decade and 220.1% higher over the past 20 years.
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Dwelling values in Melbourne peaked in November 2017 and to October 2018 have fallen by -4.9%.
The Melbourne index is now at its lowest level since March 2017.  Over the 10 years to October 2018, values in Melbourne have increased by 74.7% and they are 295.4% higher over the past 20 years.
Based on this data, most home owners are still ahead however, recent buyers are likely to have seen values slip below the purchase price.
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Following a peak in April 2018, Brisbane dwelling values have fallen by -0.3% to October 2018. 
Although falls have only been moderate to date, values are at levels last seen in Brisbane in February 2018. 
A big difference between Brisbane and Sydney and Melbourne is that Brisbane has seen very little value growth over the past decade (16.1%) however, values are 185.3% higher than they were two decades ago.
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Adelaide dwelling values sit at record high levels as at October 2018.
Although values are continuing to climb the rate of growth is moderate at just 1.8% over the past year.
Like Brisbane, Adelaide has seen very little value growth over the past decade, up by 23.7% with values 198.6% higher over the past two decades.
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Perth’s housing market has been in the midst of a correction since 2014 with dwelling values currently -14.2% lower than their June 2014 peak.
Based on index values, current values are the lowest they’ve been since June 2009. 
This means many recent buyers are in a position whereby the current value is lower than what they paid.
Over the past decade, values in Perth are -1.1% lower however, the previous decade was much stronger for value growth resulting in 20 year growth of 159.0%.
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Values have been rising at a rapid rate in Hobart over recent years and although the rate of growth has slowed a little of late, they remain at an historic high level.
Over the past decade, values in Hobart have increased by 42.9% with value growth much stronger over the previous 10 years with an increase of 230.0% over the past two decades.
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Darwin has seen a substantial correction in housing values over recent years and as at October 2018, values were -23.6% lower than their May 2014 peak.
The last time dwelling values were as low as they are currently was November 2007.
This means anyone that has purchased over the past decade is likely to have a current home value lower than the purchase price.
This is reflected by the fact that values are -3.1% lower over the past decade.
NT housing data is only available from 1999 so over the 19 years to October 2018, values in Darwin are 77.8% higher.
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Dwelling values in Canberra are continuing to rise and sit at historic high levels however, the rate of growth has slowed of late.  
Over the past 10 years, Canberra dwelling values have lifted 35.4% and over the past 20 years values are up 233.6%.
Although values in Sydney and Melbourne are seeing accelerating rates of decline, in the context of the run-up in values over recent years it has not greatly improved affordability. 
In fact in both cities values have only returned to levels seen a couple of years ago.  
CoreLogic expects values to continue declining over the coming months however, it is unlikely that these falls will make any significant improvement to affordability, especially in the absence of real income growth.
Although, if the declines continue for a number of years we could see a more substantial improvement in affordability as per what has occurred in Perth and Darwin following four years of ongoing value falls.
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Cameron Kusher

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