Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

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After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Housing finance data from The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on first home buyer activity has generally shown that this segment of the market has been tracking at below average levels over recent years. 
However, with each state and territory offering some level of incentive to first home buyers including grants and tax concessions, this segment is moving along quite nicely. 
Nationally, there were 8,782 housing finance commitments in February 2018. Although the volume of loans was down on levels in late 2017, it was 33.1% higher than the previous February.
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As a share of all owner occupier commitments, first home buyers accounted for 17.9% in February 2018 compared to 13.3% the previous year. 
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Across the individual states and territories, we’re seeing several varying trends emerge – all likely due to activity across other buyer types in the market and how recently certain incentives have become available.
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Performance around the States:
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NSW: February 2018 saw 2,246 first home buyer housing finance commitments compared to 1,105 the previous year which is an increase of 103.3%. Since the end of June 2017, stamp duty concessions have become available and over the 8 months there have been 18,400 commitments compared to 10,857 over the previous 8 months. First home buyers now account for 15.1% of owner occupier finance commitments up from 7.5% a year earlier. The 15.1% is the greatest share 3,000 since October 2012.
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Vic: 2,619 finance commitments to first home buyers in February 2018. The number of commitments was 38.6% higher than a year earlier. Vic also saw stamp duty exemptions go live on July 1 last year. From the end of June there have been 23,996 first home buyer commitments compared to 17,522 over the previous 8 months. First home buyers accounted for 18.3% of commitments compared to 13.9% a year earlier.
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Qld: Over the month there were 1,839 first home buyer housing finance commitments. The number of commitments was only marginally higher from a year ago (+3.8%). First home buyers have been much more active over recent years than in NSW and Vic although, it should be noted investors have been much less active in the Qld market. First home buyers accounted for 19.3% of the market in February 2018 compared to 17.6% a year earlier. 
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SA: In February 2018 there were 443 first home buyer housing finance commitments. Although the number was lower than those recorded late last year, it was 17.8% higher than the previous February. Despite house values being the lowest of any mainland capital city, SA has the lowest share of first home buyer activity of any state or territory with 13.0% of owner occupier commitments going to first home buyers, a year ago they accounted for a 10.5% share so they have risen a little. 
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WA: There were 1,185 first home buyer finance commitments in February 2018 which was -0.1% fewer than the volume in FHB No. (LHS) February 2017. WA is the only state or territory in which there were fewer commitments to first home buyers than a year ago. Despite the fall in volumes, first home buyers account for 25.0% of all owner occupier housing finance commitments compared to 22.2% a year ago.
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Tas: Over the month of February 2017 there were 137 first home buyer housing finance commitments which was 2.2% higher than the previous February. As a share of all owner occupier housing finance commitments, first home buyers account for 13.9%, up marginally from 13.8% a year ago. A common commentary is that a lot of younger people are moving to TAS to buy a home because they can’t afford one on the mainland. Although the number of first home buyers rose over the year, they remain very low which suggests, at least at this stage, first home buyers in TAS are not particularly active. 
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NT: While 52 first home buyer commitments in February 2018 is quite a low number, it is 26.8% higher than the previous year despite a sharp monthly fall. As a share of all owner occupier commitments, first home buyers account for 19.4% compared to 14.7% a year earlier however, the share is currently trending lower. 
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/NT.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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ACT: The 261 first home buyer housing finance commitments in February 2018 was a 177.7% increase in the number from the previous year. As a share of all owner occupier commitments, first home buyers accounted for 25.6% in February 2018 which was the highest share since October 2009.
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The latest trends in first home buyer activity highlights the sensitivities of this important market segment to both affordability constraints as well as market incentives such as first home buyer grants and stamp duty concessions.
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Despite overall slowing conditions in Sydney and Melbourne, the CoreLogic home value indices results show that the more affordable end of the housing markets in these cities as still seeing values rise and likely generated by first home buyer activity.
In other cities where affordability constraints are less severe, in the absence of any changes to first home buyer incentives, first time buyers generally remain more active relative to Sydney and Melbourne.
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With demand from the investment segment expected to continue to be weaker than it has over recent years, this may afford more opportunities for first home buyers to enter the market. 
Outside of the two largest cities, first home buyer volumes may lift over the coming months due to ongoing low mortgage rates and relative affordability compared to Sydney and Melbourne. In fact, the outflow of people from NSW to other states and territories is continuing to rise which may result in increases in first home buyers elsewhere. 
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CAMERON KUSHER is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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First home buyer levels tracking below average levels for years

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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The latest data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) on property exposures data from authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) shows that the tougher lending policies of recent years continue to reduce mortgage risks. 
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Over the March 2019 quarter, APRA reports that there was $72.395 billion in residential mortgages to households, which was -17.9% lower than the previous quarter and down -16.5% on the March 2018 quarter. 
As the chart shows the value of lending to investors and owner-occupiers is falling. 
Over the quarter the value of lending to owner-occupiers was -17.6% lower and it was down -15.2% year-on-year. Lending to investors was -18.7% lower over the quarter and -19.6% lower year-on-year. 
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The heightened level of interest-only lending has been seen as a key risk in the market and new interest- only lending has fallen over the quarter both on a value and share of total basis. 
Over the quarter there was $10.785 billion in interest-only lending which was the lowest on record. 
As a share of total lending, interest-only was also at a record low of 14.9% which is a far cry from its peak at 45.6% in June 2015. 
As a proportion of the total portfolio of outstanding loans, interest-only now accounts for a record low 23.3% which is down from a peak of 39.5% in June and September 2015.
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Interest-only lending isn’t the only area in which there has been a reduction riskier lending. The value of low documentation loans, other non-standard loans and loans approved outside of serviceability all fell over the quarter in terms of both value and their share of total lending. 
In fact at 0.1% of total lending over the quarter, both other non-standard loans and low documentation loans were at an historic low share of mortgages while the 4.3% of loans that were approved outside of serviceability was the lowest share since December 2017.
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While most areas of riskier lending recorded a reduction over the quarter, there was a slight increase in the share of new mortgages written with a loan to value ratio (LVR) of more than 80%. Over the quarter there was $15.772 billion worth of new mortgages with an LVR of more than 80%. 
Although that was the lowest value on record, that is more a function of reduced overall demand for mortgages. The share of mortgages with an LVR in excess of 80% was recorded at 21.8% over the quarter which was its highest share since March 2017. The share of higher LVR loans is still well below its peak of 37.6% in March 2009 and most new borrowers have more than 20% equity in the property they are purchasing. 
Nevertheless, it is a little surprising that given the current tight credit conditions and falling dwelling values that there is an increased willingness to lend to borrowers with less than a 20% deposit. 
Overall, the data reflects the ongoing improvements in mortgage quality and the shift towards reducing the build-up of risk in the mortgage market. We would expect the current conditions to continue over the next quarter. Thereafter it will be interesting to see what happens given that there has been an interest rate cut and it looks as if APRA will be relaxing some of the serviceability limits in place on mortgages. 
On the other side of things, comprehensive credit reporting is being implemented which is likely to mean even more scrutiny on borrowers debts and subsequently increased pressure on lenders to write high quality mortgages. 
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CAMERON KUSHER  is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
 
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Lenders continue to reduce the risks in their mortgage books

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Over the 2018-19 financial year the number of settled property sales fell substantially, down -17.2% from the previous year. Because of the significant difference in sales year-to-year when we are analysing the market performance, especially in terms of sales across price points, looking at the shifts in market share provides a much more accurate picture.
Over the 12 months to June 2019, 12.5% of all houses and 8.0% of units sold nationally transacted for at least $1 million. The share of million dollar house sales was down from 14.7% a year earlier and was also well down from its peak of 15.0% of all sales in March 2018. For units, the 8.0% share over the past year was lower than the 9.4% a year earlier. The fall in million dollar sales over the past year reflects the overall weaker housing market conditions and the fact that higher valued properties have typically recorded the greatest value falls.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_National.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_National.PNG" width="576" height="186" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="29e13edb-5eec-47e0-97c6-b5b613674f3c" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_National.PNG">
 
Throughout the combined capital cities, 18.4% of all houses and 9.8% of all units sold over the 2018-19 financial year sold for at least $1 million. The share of million dollar house sales was down from 21.9% a year earlier as well as being below the peak of 22.3% of all sales in March 2018. The 9.8% of million dollar unit sales was down from 11.5% a year earlier and was the lowest share since October 2016.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Combined%20Capital%20Cities.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Combined Capital Cities.PNG" width="577" height="185" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c9e71fd5-5fad-4eeb-8176-907a038dc747" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Combined%20Capital%20Cities.PNG">
 
Far fewer properties sell for at least $1 million in regional markets as opposed to capital cities. Over the 2018-19 financial year, 4.1% of all houses and 3.3% of all units sold in regional Australia transacted for at least $1 million. While the share of million dollar house sales was marginally lower over the year (down from 4.5%), the share of unit sales was marginally higher than the 3.2% a year earlier.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Combined%20Regional%20Markets.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Combined Regional Markets.PNG" width="573" height="187" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="020089ea-48e7-4cf0-8947-e13a8ef1bdb7" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Combined%20Regional%20Markets.PNG">
 
While a substantial volume of houses and units sold in Sydney are at least $1 million, the share has seen a steady fall over recent years as dwelling values have declined. Over the 2018-19 financial year, 30.2% of all house sales were at least $1 million which was down from 34.2% a year earlier and the smallest share since October 2014. For units, 18.9% of sales were at least a million dollars of the 2017-18 financial year compared to 16.4% over the latest financial year. The 16.4% of unit sales $1 million or greater was the smallest share since the 12 months to January 2016.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Sydney.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Sydney.PNG" width="600" height="190" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fde8b0f5-7cc3-45b1-ba38-6765cc33f8ea" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Sydney.PNG">
 
Like Sydney, Melbourne has recorded a slump in million dollar sales over the past year as values have continued to fall. Over the 2017-18 financial year, 29.0% of all house sales and 7.8% of all unit sales were at least $1 million. Over the past financial year, the share of million dollar sales had reduced to 23.1% for houses and 6.5% for units. The larger falls across higher value housing markets and tighter credit conditions have clearly limited transactions at prices above $1 million.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Melbourne.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Melbourne.PNG" width="598" height="188" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9fc21a83-94ff-4cdf-9ef7-0c1fd7b939d1" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Melbourne.PNG">
 
Over the 2018-19 financial year, 8.7% of all houses and 3.8% of all units sold in Brisbane transacted for at least $1 million. Brisbane values have fallen over the past year and as such there has been a slight fall in million dollar sales which were down from 8.8% and 4.0% respectively over the previous year. As the chart shows the fall in million dollar sales has been much more moderate than the decline in these sales across Sydney and Melbourne.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Brisbane.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Brisbane.PNG" width="601" height="183" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e765ec35-4e8c-453b-8599-bf579c566407" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Brisbane.PNG">
 
5.9% of all houses and 1.4% of all units sold over the 2018-19 financial year in Adelaide, transacted for at least $1 million. The share of house sales of at least $1 million is currently at an historic high and has increased from 5.2% a year ago. The 1.4% of units sold for at least $1 million is unchanged from 12 months ago but the share has fallen slightly over recent months.
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Although the Perth housing market has seen a substantial decline in values since the middle of 2014, the share of million dollar sales has actually not fallen significantly. Over the 2018-19 financial year, 10.0% of all house sales and 4.1% of all unit sales were at least $1 million. The 10.0% of house sales was down from 10.6% a year earlier and the 4.1% of unit sales was up from 3.9% a year earlier.
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Although dwelling values have continued to climb over the past year in Hobart, there has been weaker conditions at the top-end of the market resulting in the share of million dollar sales falling over recent months. Over the 12 months to June 2019, 3.9% of all houses sold in Hobart were at least $1 million which was higher than the 3.7% a year earlier but down from the recent peak of 4.1%. The share of units sold for at least $1 million has fallen from 3.0% at the end of the 2017-18 financial year to 2.4% at the end of the latest financial year.
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The ongoing decline in Darwin dwelling values since 2014 has resulted in a much smaller share of house and unit sales occurring within the million dollar price point. At the end of the 2018-19 financial year, 2.4% of all house sales and 0.6% of all unit sales were at least $1 million. The share of million dollar house sales is down from 3.0% a year earlier and is at its lowest share since June 2013. The share of million dollar unit sales is unchanged over the year.
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Although Canberra dwelling values continued to increase throughout the 2018-19 financial year, the share of million dollar sales has dropped over the year. The share of $1 million house sales has fallen from 12.3% a year ago to 11.5% over the current year. For units, the share of sales has fallen to 2.0% of all sales from 2.3% a year earlier.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Canberra.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Canberra.PNG" width="601" height="194" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1cab45de-0f45-42a4-85f4-2d0e371ea2a6" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Canberra.PNG">
 
Over recent months we have started to see some stabilizing of housing market conditions. The data also shows that the largest improvement is occurring across the most expensive properties. Assuming this continues over the remainder of the current financial year the share of million dollar sales, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, may increase over the coming year.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
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Million dollar sales take a dive over the financial year

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for September 2018 earlier today and it showed a further weakening of demand for mortgages.
Over the month, the total value of housing finance commitments was recorded at $29.1 billion which was the lowest monthly value since August 2014.
While the decline in finance commitments over recent times has been primarily driven by investors, owner occupier demand is now also clearly easing.
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Over the month, the $29.1 billion worth of housing finance commitments was split between $19.4 billion to owner occupiers and $9.8 billion to investors. 
The $19.4 billion worth of commitments to owner occupiers was its lowest monthly value since July 2015 while the $9.8 billion to investors was its lowest monthly value since July 2013. 
Lending to owner occupiers in September 2018 was -9.4% lower than its monthly peak in February 2018. Housing finance commitments to investors in September 2018 was -33.8% lower than its April 2015 monthly peak.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/Cam2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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In terms of the different types of owner occupier housing finance commitments, each of the four categories recorded a fall over the month while year-on-year, refinance was the only segment that was higher. 
Importantly, the two largest components of lending to owner occupiers; refinance and purchase of established were -15.9% and -12.9% below their historic peaks in September 2018. 
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It is a similar story for investors with demand falling across both new construction and established properties, both of which are lower over the month and year-on-year.
 In fact the September 2018 value of lending to investors for new construction was -46.9% below its peak while lending for established properties was -35.6% lower.
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As investor demand has faded from the housing market, demand from owner occupier first home buyers had been trending higher. 
This lift was largely on the back of introductions of stamp duty free or stamp duty reduced purchases for first home buyers under certain price points in NSW and Vic which became available in July 2017. More recently the data is pointing to an easing of demand from first home buyers. 
In September 2018 there were 8,693 owner occupier first home buyer commitments which was both lower than the previous year (9,618) and the previous month (9,534). In fact the 8,693 commitments was the lowest monthly number since January 2017 (note the data isn’t seasonally adjusted so January is always much lower than other months) other than that you’d have to go back to June 2017 to see commitments so low (the month prior to stamp duty concession going live in NSW and Vic). 
Given the ongoing declines in dwelling values, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, and the now apparent declines in owner occupier and investor housing finance commitments, it is hard to see a reversal in dwelling value declines or a lift in sales activity any time soon.
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As activity reduces, housing inventory is building up, providing more choice for buyers and little in the way of urgency to make a purchase decision.
The upcoming pause for Christmas and New Year may see some adjustment in the New Year but even that looks unlikely. For the coming months it is expected mortgage demand will continue to fall as will dwelling values.
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic
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The weakness in housing finance commitments now looks engrained: Cameron Kusher

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REA Group has appointed Cameron Kusher to the newly created role of executive director, economic research. 
He joins REA from Core Logic where he spent over 11 years, most recently as the Australian head of research. 
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“Working alongside our well established and influential chief economist Nerida Conisbee, Cameron will drive forward our program of economic research," REA Group CEO Owen Wilson said.
“Core to REA’s growth strategy is becoming Australia’s property data powerhouse."
"We want to provide Australians with the best research, data and insights to better inform their property decisions. 
"We are delighted to have someone of Cameron’s calibre join our team to help supercharge this part of our strategy.
"Together Nerida and Cameron will play a fundamental role informing key audience groups with market leading analysis and commentary.”  
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REA Group’s Economist team sits within the audience and marketing division of REA Group headed by chief marketing officer, Melina Cruickshank.  
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REA Group secures Cameron Kusher to lead economic research

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Discounting is measured by comparing the original list price of a property to its ultimate selling price. At CoreLogic, auction sales are excluded from the calculation of the discounting measure. 
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Nationally, over the three months to April 2019, 75.6% of properties sold for less than their original list price. Typically the majority of dwellings sold sell for less than their original list price. The 75.6% of properties selling at a discount was above the decade average of 69.3% of properties. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Dwellings%20selling%20below%20list%20price%20-%20Capital%20Cities.PNG" alt="Dwellings selling below list price - Capital Cities.PNG">
It is a little bit of a different story across the combined capital cities. Although the combined capital cities are recording larger declines than the national index, a lower 72.9% of properties sold over the past three months did so for less than the original list price. While this is a much higher share than the decade average (62.3%) it is interesting to note that despite the weak conditions there are still more than a quarter of properties selling for more than the original list price. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Dwellings%20selling%20below%20list%20price%20-%20Sydney.PNG" alt="Dwellings selling below list price - Sydney.PNG">
Across Sydney, 78.1% of all property sales were at a price below the original list price over the past three months. During the boom in Sydney housing (2013-15) a majority of properties were actually selling for more than their list price. That phenomenon has changed substantially since dwelling values began to fall over recent years. The decade average shows that 59.4% of properties sold at a discount to the original list price. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Dwellings%20selling%20below%20list%20price%20-%20Melbourne.PNG" alt="Dwellings selling below list price - Melbourne.PNG">
Over the past decade, an average of 49.2% of Melbourne properties have sold at a discount to the original list price. This highlights the strength of the Melbourne housing market over recent years with sales at a discount much less prevalent than elsewhere. The recent weakness in the Melbourne market has seen this trend shift with 76.3% of sales over the past three months at a discount to the original list price. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Dwellings%20selling%20below%20list%20price%20-%20Brisbane.PNG" alt="Dwellings selling below list price - Brisbane.PNG">
Over the 14 year period, Brisbane has never seen a greater share of properties selling above than below the original list price. Over the past decade, an average of 71.4% of properties sold at a discount from the original list price compared to 67.2% over the past three months. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Dwellings%20selling%20below%20list%20price%20-%20Adelaide.PNG" alt="Dwellings selling below list price - Adelaide.PNG">
For most of the past 14 years a majority of Adelaide properties have sold at a discount however, in 2007 when dwelling values were booming the share of properties selling at a discount was as low as 29.9%. Currently, 75.4% of properties are selling at a discount which is above the long-term average which is recorded at 68.2%. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Dwellings%20selling%20below%20list%20price%20-%20Perth.PNG" alt="Dwellings selling below list price - Perth.PNG">
The ongoing weak housing market conditions in Perth has seen an average of 73.6% of properties sold over the past decade selling at a discount. You have to go all the way to 2006-07 when Perth’s housing market was booming to see a majority of properties not selling at a discount. Over the past three months, 74.1% of properties sold at a discount. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Dwellings%20selling%20below%20list%20price%20-%20Hobart.PNG" alt="Dwellings selling below list price - Hobart.PNG">
The recent strength of the Hobart housing market has seen a significant reduction in the share of properties selling at a discount however, over recent months the share has started to rise again. Over the past three months, 32.5% of properties sold at a discount, compared to the decade average of 55.2%.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Dwellings%20selling%20below%20list%20price%20-%20Darwin.PNG" alt="Dwellings selling below list price - Darwin.PNG">
The ongoing weak housing market conditions in Darwin has seen a large share of properties selling for less than their original list price. On average over the past decade, 84.9% of properties sold at a discount with the figure slightly higher over the past three months at 85.4%. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Dwellings%20selling%20below%20list%20price%20-%20Canberra.PNG" alt="Dwellings selling below list price - Canberra.PNG">
Over the past decade an average of 54.1% of properties sold transacted at a price below the original list price. Although the share of sales at a discount has increased in Canberra over recent months, a majority (45.8%) sold for less than the original list price. 
As dwelling value growth accelerates, vendors can find it difficult to price properties, in-turn strong housing conditions typically result in fewer sales at a discount. With the national housing market continuing to see value declines it is expected that over the coming period relatively few properties will be selling at a price above the original list price. 
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
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How much discounting is taking place? CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher 

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National dwelling values have fallen by -7.4% from their October 2017 peak through to the end of March 2019.
While this figure is often quoted, it is also important to understand the context in terms of how much that actually equates to in dollar terms.
Based on the median dwelling value at the time of the market peak, a -7.4% fall in national dwelling values translates approximately into a $40,590 decline in dwelling values.
Looking at falls across the combined capital cities, the decline has been larger than national falls with values -9.2% lower than their September 2017 peak.
This translates to an approximate $59,478 reduction in dwelling values.
Throughout the combined regional markets, values have fallen by -2.5% or$9,464 from their May 2018 peak.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/26/New%20Project%202.png" alt="">
Let us take a look across the states.
NSW
Sydney values are -13.9% lower than their peak or down $124,739. In regional NSW, values have declined by -4.1% or -$18,674.
Vic 
Melbourne dwelling values have fallen by -10.3% or $71,404 from their peak. Regional Vic values are $2,749 lower than their peak having fallen by -0.8%.
Qld 
Brisbane dwelling values are $7,796 or -1.6% lower than they were at their peak. In regional Qld, values are -4.9% lower than their peak of -$18,773 lower.
SA 
Adelaide dwelling values are -0.5% or -$2,307 lower than their peak. Regional SA values are -3.4% or -$8,623 lower than their peak.
WA 
Perth dwelling values peaked in mid-2014 and are currently -18.1% or -$97,797 lower. Regional WA values have fallen -31.6% from their peak taking them $118,734 lower.
Tas 
Hobart and regional Tas are the only two major regions of the country in which values are yet to have fallen from their peak.
NT 
Darwin dwelling values are -27.5% or -$145,980 lower than their peak. In regional NT the falls have been much more moderate at -7.9% or -$31,761
Canberra 
Values are -0.2% lower than their peak or -$1,071.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/26/New%20Project%203.png" alt="">
While a values percentage fall indicates how the market is fairing, seeing the actual value of the declines is a stark reminder of the actual losses.
While the recent declines in markets like Sydney and Melbourne can be put in context of the significant increases over recent years, this is little comfort for home owners that purchased at or near the peak of the market.
Over the coming months, we expect declines to continue, leading to further falls in asset values.
Importantly, while values are falling, the debt held against these properties is unlikely to be reducing at the same pace resulting in wealth declines for holders of residential property.
From another perspective, lower housing values are becoming more attractive to first home buyers and prospective buyers who were previously priced out of the housing market.
With advertised stock levels remaining high and mortgage rates tracking around the lowest level since the 1960s (and potentially moving even lower later this year), active buyers are back in the driver’s seat to take advantage of improved housing affordability and the low cost of debt.
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How property values have changed from the market peak: Cameron Kusher

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently released the quarterly building activity data for December 2018.
The release is a treasure-trove of data and includes information on dwelling commencements, dwelling completions, dwellings under construction and dwellings approved for construction but not commenced.
This release has published very valuable data on the number of units commenced by the number of storeys.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_001.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_001.png" alt=""> 
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
In terms of dwelling commencements, there was a significant slowdown over the quarter. In fact, house starts fell 7.6% over the quarter to their lowest level (27,088) since March 2017.
Unit commencements recorded a much larger -26.8% decline to 19,134 commencements, the fewest over a quarter since September 2013 and the largest quarterly decline in commencements since September 1974 when they fell -32.5%.
Despite the falls, both house and unit commencements remain above their long-term average.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_002.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_002.png" alt=""> 
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
The most notable change in the landscape of dwelling commencements over recent years has been the lift in apartment starts and more recently their fall.
The increase in higher density construction has primarily been driven by the three most populous states, or more specifically, the capital cities of each of those states.
Over the past five years, every state and territory has seen unit commencements reach historic high levels, demonstrating a clear shift towards higher density development (that isn’t to say that detached housing construction hasn’t also climbed significantly over the period).
More recently, as the housing market has turned and values have started to fall we can see there is a reduced preparedness of developers to commence new projects.
We would expect that commencements, particularly for units, are likely to continue to trend lower over the coming quarters as housing values continue to record value falls, finance remains tight, and both domestic and foreign investors remain light on the ground.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_003.png" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_003.png" alt=""> 
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
In the latest building activity release the ABS published a further breakdown of annual unit commencements by the height of the building.
While the number of commencements has climbed significantly over recent years, it is interesting to note that commencements of units in a one to three storey block has been relatively steady.
Anecdotally, the demand/supply ratio of medium density dwellings remains much healthier relative to high density products.
Conversely, there has been significant increases in commencements of taller buildings over recent years with commencements now beginning to ease.
This reflects both the unit construction boom and also the fact that as the cost of acquiring sites has increased developers have sought approvals for taller buildings in an effort to maximise their yield and to recoup acquisition costs and maximise profits.
With dwelling commencements expected to continue to fall, the decline doesn’t negate the fact that many developers have paid high prices to acquire sites.
As a result we would expect that despite an expectation of fewer commencements going forward, those projects that do commence will largely be taller apartment projects.
Notwithstanding that expectation, larger projects are generally riskier for the developer and achieving sufficient presales to commence a project is more of a challenge when there are more units to sell.
In order to maintain profitability of projects it is highly likely that as values continue to decline that dwelling commencements will continue to fall.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Cameron Kusher

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