<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Building Approvals

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>ABS figures show that new home building approvals faltered during the first month of 2016.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">January 2016 was a rather weak month for new home building approvals, with both detached house approvals and those for multi-units falling back compared with December. </span></p>
<p>During January 2016, new home building approvals declined by 7.5 percent. This comprised a 6.1 percent drop in detached house approvals and a reduction of some 9.1 percent in multi-unit approvals. Over the past year, approvals totalled some 231,752 which is 10.6 percent higher than the previous 12 month period and still very strong by historical standards. </p>
<p>Towards the end of 2015, the residential building industry was hit by a number of unfavourable developments. The major banks increased their mortgage interest rates, credit conditions were tightened for domestic investors and the $5,000 foreign investor fee came into force. This has made it more difficult to deliver new housing supply and today’s figures seem to bear this out.</p>
<p>The HIA’s <em>Housing Australia’s Future </em>report warned last week of the major challenges in meeting Australia’s housing needs over the coming decades. It is therefore vital that policy settings and credit conditions become more focused on the consistent delivery of the required volume of new housing supply over the long term. We’re just not seeing this at the moment. </p>
<p>During January 2016, total seasonally adjusted new home building approvals saw the largest increase in South Australia (+14.2 percent), followed by Western Australia (+7.2 percent) and Victoria (+2.9 percent). The volume of approvals fell in New South Wales (-22.9 percent), Queensland (-13.4 percent) and Tasmania (-11.1 percent). In trend terms, approvals saw a 9.4 percent decline in the Northern Territory and contracted by 11.4 percent in the Australian Capital Territory.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2012.34.55%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2012.34.55%20PM.png" alt="" width="799" height="388"></p>
<p><em>Shane Garrett is senior economist for HIA and can be contacted <a href="https://hia.com.au/en/BusinessInfo/economicInfo/EcoGroup.aspx" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Building approvals stumble into 2016: HIA's Shane Garrett

<html><body>
<p><span>Non-residential and residential building approvals fell over the last six months in NSW, says the Urban Taskforce citing Australian Bureau of Statistics data.</span></p>
<p><span>“In a worrying sign that the property market is slowing down the latest ABS approval numbers continue a fall from June 2015,” said Urban Taskforce CEO Chris Johnson. </span></p>
<p><span>In the high density apartment market, approvals in December 2015 dropped to 3,060 from a high of 3,338 approvals in June 2015 on trend numbers. </span></p>
<p><span>This could be a settling down to more normal production or point to less confidence in the market through a tightening of bank loans, said Johnson.</span></p>
<p><span>“While the state’s performance is well above the 10-year average the continual slow down means the government must be careful with any changes that affect the industry. We are concerned that statements about value capture levies along with a less focussed local government sector due to amalgamations could lead to further drops in production,” he said.</span></p>
<p><span>“Even at the June high point NSW was not producing sufficient housing for the increased population particularly when many approvals do not proceed to housing production.” </span></p>
<p><span>According to the NSW Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development website, land value capture or uplift involves governments levying a proportion of the increase in the unimproved capital value of private land due to public sector transport infrastructure investments. </span></p>
<p><span>The various forms of value capture range from property taxes, parking levies and voluntary planning agreements.</span></p>
<p><span>The non-residential building approvals — measured by value — have also slowed over the last six months with NSW now behind Victoria and Queensland despite these states being smaller. </span></p>
<p><span>Non-residential building approvals in Victoria were $833,198,000 in December 2015 compared to Queensland at $692,603,000 and NSW at $691,569,000.” </span></p>
<p><span>“While the NSW economy is generally in good shape the role of building production needs to be carefully supported to ensure it remains robust,” said Johnson.</span></p>
<p><span>He suggested that the Greater Sydney Commission take a more proactive role with approvals of major projects during the transition process to ensure housing supply continues at a strong level.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2010.21.07%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-04%20at%2010.21.07%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

NSW building approvals slowing down: Urban Taskforce 

<html><body>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released building approvals data for December 2015 which have been analysed here by CoreLogic RP Data research analyst Cameron Kusher.</p>
<p>The results tend to be somewhat volatile on a month-to-month basis, largely due to the more ‘lumpy’ unit approvals. </p>
<p>Following a -12.4% monthly fall in dwelling approvals in November, approvals rose by 9.2% to 18,868 approvals in December 2015.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.47.54%20pm.png" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.47.54%20pm.png" alt="" width="515" height="163"></p>
<p>The 18,868 dwelling approvals in December 2015 consisted of 9,968 house approvals and 8,899 unit approvals. </p>
<p>Both house and unit approvals recorded a large jump in December, up 5.7% and 13.5% respectively. </p>
<p>Year-on-year, house approvals are 3.4% higher while unit approvals are -8.3% lower resulting in a -2.5% fall in total dwelling approvals. </p>
<p>Despite the year-on-year fall in approvals they remain at close to record high levels although they are -8.7% lower than their recent record high recorded in June 2015.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.19%20pm.png" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.19%20pm.png" alt="" width="501" height="181"></p>
<p>Looking specifically at the types of units being approved over the 2015 calendar year, 27.0% were townhouses, a record-low 8.7% were low-rise units (less than four storeys) and 64.3% were high-rise units (four storeys or higher). </p>
<p>The above chart highlights the rising prevalence of high-rise approvals over the past few years, largely at the expense of townhouses. </p>
<p>Of course this is reflective of the large volume of in-fill development taking place, particularly in inner-city areas. </p>
<p>From a developer’s perspective the returns are much higher building to high-densities than there are constructing medium density properties such as townhouses. </p>
<p>More recently the chart shows that there has been a slight easing of high-rise unit approvals however, developers are still overwhelmingly seeking more high-rise approvals than approvals for low-rise or townhouses.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.29%20pm.png" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.29%20pm.png" alt="" width="455" height="169"></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.41%20pm.png" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.41%20pm.png" target="_blank"><img src="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.41%20pm.png" alt="" width="444" height="163"></a></p>
<p>The above two charts show the six month average number of house approvals across each of the capital cities. </p>
<p>The charts show that in most cities the number of house approvals have recently started to trend lower. </p>
<p>In particular this downwards trend is now most prevalent in Perth, Darwin and Canberra. </p>
<p>Despite the recent downwards trend in approvals, they remain well above average levels in Sydney and Perth, are at about average levels in Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart and Darwin and are well below average in Brisbane and Canberra.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.46%20pm.png" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.46%20pm.png" target="_blank"><img src="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.46%20pm.png" alt="" width="477" height="175"></a></p>
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<p><a href="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.51%20pm.png" target="_blank"><img src="/images/2016/02/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-03%20at%201.49.51%20pm.png" alt="" width="472" height="176"></a></p>
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<p>Unit approvals have also generally started to trend lower over recent months however, the notable exception is Sydney where they are still increasing. </p>
<p>Despite the recent slowdown of unit approvals they have been at record highs in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane and remain at extremely high levels. </p>
<p>The challenge now will be to see how many of these recent approvals end up constructed. </p>
<p>With sales volumes slowing, offshore demand reportedly slowing, investor activity reducing, value growth slowing and concerns of an oversupply in certain areas it will be interesting to see how many of these projects go ahead.</p>
<p>We anticipate that despite the month-to-month volatility in the data, building approvals will most likely trend lower through 2016. </p>
<p>This will be driven in large by the market due to an expectation of slowing value growth and sales volumes. </p>
<p>Furthermore, many are concerned about oversupply in certain markets and developers may find it harder to achieve their pre-commitment targets, particularly for units. </p>
<p>The recent slowdown in investment lending will also impact units more than houses with the last Census showing that units are more than twice as likely to be rented as houses are. </p>
<p>The fact that rental yields have pushed to record lows and rents are unchanged over the year is also likely to act as a further deterrent for buyers of new off-the-plan property.</p>
<p>While the trend in dwelling approvals appears to have peaked, there are still a large number of projects that are either under construction are due to start construction, which implies building activity probably has some way to go before we see a similar easing trend that is visible with approvals.</p>
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Dwelling approvals remain below peak despite December rise

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<p><span>The November 2015 building approvals data show a sharp fall in dwelling approvals led by the volatile unit segment. Seasonally adjusted total dwelling approvals were -12.7 percent lower over the month, their largest monthly fall since July 2012.  </span></p>
<p><span>Year-on-year dwelling approvals are -8.4 percent lower and approvals have retracted to be -16.8 percent lower than their recent record highs. The data indicates a slowing in developer appetite for approvals and, given the slowing demand for mortgages from investors and slowing home value growth, it is a trend which is likely to continue over the coming months.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-1-580x181.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p> <img src="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-1-580x181.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The decline in approvals in November was led by units however, house approvals, which haven’t seen the same level of acceleration as units, also recorded a fall over the month.  House approvals were -0.6 percent lower over the month and -2.2 percent lower year-on-year. Meanwhile, unit approvals declined by -24.0 percent in November and were -15.0 percent lower year-on-year.  Although the unit approvals series is much more volatile series than houses, it has now started trending lower with approvals -30.3 percent lower than their recent record high of 11,084 approvals in July 2015.  </span></p>
<p><span>House approvals are also trending lower, albeit at a more moderate pace, down -9.4 percent from their recent peak of 10,376 approvals in April 2015. The most recent Census in 2011 shows that 21.2 percent of detached houses are rented compared to 56.0 percent of units. The recent sharp fall in investor housing finance commitments is much more likely to impact on demand for new units than new houses and we may be seeing developers starting to react to this market shift.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-2-580x209.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-2-580x209.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The data on unit approvals by type further highlights the recent boom in high-rise (4 storeys and greater) unit approvals. Historically townhouses have been the product of choice for medium and high density developers however, over the past four years we have seen record high levels of high rise construction. Both monthly and annual data points to demand for high-rise approvals starting to fall although it should be noted that high-rise approvals still account for a majority of unit approvals. </span></p>
<p>High-rise approvals could be considered a bit of a double-edged sword for developers, in one instance they are considered the highest and best use of land in areas of strategic significance (eg along transport spines and in areas closed to major working nodes like the CBD) however, they are heavily reliant on achieving a particular level of presales.</p>
<p>From an economic sense they take longer to build so the economic benefit of the construction is stretched over a longer period of time however, they are ultimately less likely to end up constructed because much more financing is required and they are so dependent on adequate levels of presales.</p>
<p>It is likely that given units are much more likely to be purchased by investors and investor demand is now falling that a larger than normal proportion of these units will not end up constructed in this new phase of the housing cycle.  Historically around 98% of units approved are constructed compared to around 85% of units.</p>
<p>Much like home sales, values and investment related mortgage demand, we are now also seeing early signs of a slowing in dwelling approvals. Although approvals are slowing there is still a large number of unit projects under construction which should continue to provide a high level of economic benefit as the recent record high number of dwelling approvals continues for a few years. Of course the huge surge in housing construction at a time when population growth is slowing means that there is a better balance between housing supply and demand. In fact in certain areas there are now concerns about oversupply, particularly in inner city unit markets.</p>
<p>This is going to be a key theme to watch during 2016 particularly considering that we are already seeing investor demand falling and record low levels of rental growth. The next challenge will be when these units come to settlement will their initial valuation hold up and will the changed lending landscape mean that some purchasers will have to find larger deposits in order to settle.  Furthermore, if they purchased for investment purposes the next challenge may just be finding someone to rent the property.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Will new housing approvals continue to ease through 2016? Cameron Kusher

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<div>An unusual looking Building Approvals data release from the ABS, which showed a seasonally adjusted 2.1% increase in monthly approvals to 18,900 (21.4% year-on-year) but the trend result declining by 1.8% for the month to 18,309 (to be up by just 6.8% year-on-year).</div>
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<br>The trend result led to various reports of the building boom being over. Confusing? It certainly was, with the trend result evidently applying negative "tail weights" to the strong run of monthly approvals at the beginning of the year.</div>
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<div>Ultimately monthly building approvals figures will always and forever be lumpy, and the trend weights arguably add limited value here.<br><br>Below I have instead charted the original unadjusted data by month for houses and other dwellings - no seasonal adjustments and no trend weights, just a moving average whacked through the middle - so you can make your own mind up.<br><br>So, have building approvals peaked or not? In short, detached house approvals have probably peaked for the cycle. On the other hand townhouses, units and apartments may not <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>quite</strong></span> yet have peaked, but given tighter lending criteria being applied for investors and waning rental yields, the peak of the cycle appears likely to be imminent.</div>
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<span>The rolling annual data shows that over the year to September a record total of 230,296 dwellings was approved, with some 114,218 of them being attached dwellings, which is also a record.</span><br><br><span>Incredibly, the annual total number of attached dwelling approvals is approaching the number of houses approved, something that nobody was predicting three years ago.</span>
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<div class="separator"><span>Indeed some folk predicted there would be no material increase in approvals period, which just goes to show how unpredictable cycles can be at times.</span></div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Across the capitals</span></strong><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">House approvals continue to trend up steadily in Sydney and Melbourne, but are flatlining in Brisbane, and are now trending down in Perth, Adelaide and Canberra. </div>
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<div>Over the past 12 months Sydney has seen four big months for attached dwellings approvals ranging from 3,111 in May to a record 4,260 in July, but approvals tailed away again in September to just 1,835.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Melbourne waved through another 2,842 units in September for a fresh rolling annual high of 34,726 approvals.<br><br>Meanwhile Brisbane had another whopping month of high rise approvals, also sending its annual unit approvals to a new high of 18,301. This figure is up from an equivalent total of just 5,412 three years ago - again, think back to the commentary at the time, did anyone predict this surge in approvals or Chinese capital?<br><br>The Brisbane Central Business District is set to "benefit" from new high rise towers which will nudge against the city's 274 metre height limit, a restriction set for aviation regulations.</div>
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<div>What more is there to say on this point that I haven't already said over the past two years?<br><br>Whether or not all of these apartments are built, steer clear of the obvious areas of oversupply in Melbourne and Brisbane in particular, and be even more wary than usual about buying expensive off-the-plan or new build units. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">High rise gluts power on</span></strong><br><br><div>In particular, the number of high rise (4+ storey) units being approved continues to defy common sense in Victoria...</div>
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<div><span>...and in Queensland, which saw its greatest ever month for high rise apartment approvals in September. The ratio of new stock to existing stock in a number of Brisbane's inner suburbs is exceptionally high, as documented here previously.</span></div>
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<div><span>Meanwhile, New South Wales may have passed its cyclical peak in respect of high rise approvals, although due to necessity crowded Sydney will continue to approve more of this dwelling type in future. Nevertheless the higher-density sector is one I'd mark down to "underperform".</span></div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Overall, despite talk of the building boom being "at an end" thanks to the prplexing ABS trend data, this was a reasonably strong headline result for building approvals, though once again skewed towards high-density projects. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">With the macroprudential screw tightening it seems increasingly likely that unit approvals could soon drop off too, and a significant percentage of approved developments may never make it through to the completion stage.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Accordingly the dwelling starts data series will be one to watch closely. Note that there can be a significant lag between approval and completion for multi-unit developments, perhaps up to several years. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Building boom all over bar the grouting? Pete Wargent

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Building approvals rose slightly in September, but did not offset last month’s fall. </span></p>
<p><span>We </span><span>continue to believe that the housing market is at or near a peak, and further growth from housing construction is looking increasingly unlikely.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-02%20at%201.15.50%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Housing building approvals rose marginally in September, not offsetting the previous </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">month’s decline</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">, which was revised even further downward. Detached housing approvals fell slightly, meaning that activity has been unchanged for near two years. But the key swing variable, the higher-density segment, posted growth of 6.9% m/m (Figure 1).</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This monthly growth in the higher-density segment was mixed across the states. Queensland rebounded sharply to a near-record level, while Victoria posted mild growth. On the other hand, New South Wales approvals fell heavily, and are now 60% lower than the peak of just two months ago, highlighting the volatility inherent in the data. Nonetheless, the national level of approvals continued to trend lower, consistent with our belief that although demand for new housing will remain solid, it will not return to the peak levels of earlier this year. This means that although construction activity will remain elevated, further growth, and further contribution to national output, will be increasingly hard to come by.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Meanwhile, the outlook remains weak in the non-residential segment. Approvals rose slightly in September, but remain low, hindered by ongoing softness in the office segment particularly. Accommodation-related approvals continue to trend higher, and now sit at </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">record levels, likely supported by the lower AUD’s positive impact on the tourism sector </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(Figure 2). </span>
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<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Other data today showed house price growth weakening in Sydney, up just 0.3% in October (in seasonally adjusted terms). In turn, annual price growth eased back to 16%, from a peak of 20% in July. This marked slowdown is in line with falling auction clearance rates (Figure 3), reflecting lower housing market sentiment, especially amongst investors. Melbourne price growth remained more robust, outpacing Sydney for the past four months in seasonally adjusted terms. However, price growth is easing in Melbourne too, and has slowed over each of the past three months.</span></div>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This waning enthusiasm for housing is at least partially driven by tighter regulation aimed </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">at removing some of the heat from the housing market. APRA’s macro prudential measures </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(which have resulted in tighter borrowing conditions and higher interest rates) have resulted in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">a sharp slowdown in investor borrowing, as seen in last Friday’s credit data. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This is expected to result in house price growth easing further over coming months, with Sydney and Melbourne growth rates to converge with other capital cities. </span>
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<p><em>Cherelle Murphy is c<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">o-head of Australian economics, ANZ and </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Daniel Gradwell is economist. They can be contacted <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/authors/our-economists/" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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Building approvals improve, house price growth eases: ANZ Research

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Our forecasts for global growth to stay around the 31⁄4% yoy mark remain basically unchanged; a sub-trend outcome that falls well short of the IMF’s rosier predictions. The hard data provides no evidence that overall global growth has picked up and our leading indicators suggest further stagnation through to September. The bursting of the share market bubble will probably only worsen China’s trend slowdown. </span></p>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The main issues of market focus are the likely timing of US/UK interest rate increases, the recent devaluation of the CNY (intended to align the currency more with market expectations and support exports), and the implications of measures Chinese authorities have used to prop up the share market. Apart from that, bond yields have reversed some of their recent recovery from exceptionally low levels. Facing an improving labour market, we think the Fed will start lifting rates in September, although they have signalled that the process will be gradual. Given recent USD strength, it is not yet clear whether the devaluation of the CNY will have any consequences for the timing of Fed rate hikes. </span>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The decline in Chinese share prices from the mid-June bubble peak has wiped out a significant amount of market capitalisation. However, as investors only held recent paper gains for a short time the consequences on spending behaviour may prove to be relatively limited. If investors have borrowed heavily on margin to then face margin calls, there is potential for broader problems.</span><br><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The disappointing trends in global industrial output and trade have continued. Industrial growth was disappointing in March quarter 2015 and the June quarter is shaping up to be even weaker. World exports are faring even worse with volumes trending down, mainly because of poor Asian data. The strong $US has depressed trade flows but there is also an underlying weakness. There is, however, a more fundamental problem at work with export volumes falling below year-earlier levels and faring worse than global trade. Commodity prices have fallen heavily, lowering export earnings and national income across a range of primary exporting countries. Lower commodity prices do boost incomes and spending power in importing economies but the immediate impact on global activity could be negative.</span><br><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">After a disappointing start to the year, economic growth in key advanced economies picked up in the June quarter. Business survey results look better in the Euro-zone, despite the Greek crisis, with the upturn broadening out to include services activity. Monthly Japanese business surveys also look slightly better</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">but the quarterly GDP figures are volatile and kicked up in March, posing the risk of a slowdown in June. Canada is the weakest G7 economy with GDP falling through the first 5 months of the year as investment activity falls. </span>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The acceleration in US and UK growth in June continues the trend recovery trajectories seen through the last few years in their economies. Timely monthly business surveys generally point to ongoing moderate growth. This growth is generally broad-based with upturns in both the manufacturing and services sectors with the US and UK service sectors being the stand-out performers for growth</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">whereas Japan has been the laggard when it comes to growth in all areas.</span><br><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Given that the emerging market economies have been the main drivers of global output growth in recent years, the slowdown in China along with very weak outcomes in Brazil and disappointing data in India all present a major headwind to the world economy. The monthly trade volume and industrial output data that allows us to track how the emerging economies are faring does not look positive, signalling that there is little sign of an imminent upturn in their growth momentum. The monthly data for China and India continues to show a slowing trend in the pace of growth. </span>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Recent trade figures have been particularly soft but there is also evidence of a softening in expansion across key sectors of activity like fixed investment spending in China and infrastructure output in India. The People’s Bank of China surprised markets with a large devaluation of the renminbi in mid-August – signalling a greater role for markets in setting the exchange rate in the future. This move may also provide support for struggling exporters. The picture is even worse when we turn to the other emerging market economies in East Asia and Latin America. Industrial output and exports are falling in both regions as sluggish global trade and weaker commodity markets take their toll.</span><br><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Overall our global forecasts have been left broadly unchanged in 2016 (3.3%) and 2017 (3.4%), although this sub-trend outcome falls well short of the IMF’s rosier predictions. The hard data provides no evidence that overall global growth has picked up and our leading indicators suggest further stagnation through to September.</span><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span><img src="file:///page1image41080" alt="page1image41080" width="0.720000" height="12.180000" style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="file:///page1image41240" alt="page1image41240" width="3.660000" height="0.600000" style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="file:///page1image41400" alt="page1image41400" width="0.720000" height="12.120000" style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="file:///page1image41560" alt="page1image41560" width="3.600000" height="0.600000" style="line-height: 1.3em;"><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Australia: The economic outlook remains mixed and patchy. Mining investment is declining sharply, public spending is limited and national income growth is weak amidst declining commodity prices. Meanwhile, monetary policy is highly stimulatory and the AUD is acting as a shock absorber, with tentative evidence of recovery in non-mining activity. Our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month – 2.4% in 2014/15, 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17 – with domestic demand weak and net exports making a large contribution. </span>
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<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The unemployment rate is forecast to stay around 61⁄4% before easing slightly into 2016/17. Central forecast is for the RBA to hold rates steady, with the next move likely to be up, but not till late 2016.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Recent exuberant readings on business confidence were pared back in July. While confidence eased in most industries, much of the change stemmed from mining and construction firms (which includes a large share on non-residential and engineering firms), suggesting an escalation in Chinese growth concerns could be putting firms on alert. Confidence fell back below the long-run average but remains positive and the trend has held up around average levels. Business conditions also dropped back. Looking through the volatility in conditions and confidence, however, suggests a turnaround in the non-mining economy. Yet, leading indicators from the Survey – such as forward orders and capacity utilisation – generally eased.</span><br><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The labour market appears to be performing more strongly than suggested by traditional relationships with economic activity at present. The average pace of employment growth has strengthened, which has been enough to stabilise the unemployment rate between 6 and 6.3% over the past year. The July reading of 6.3% likely reflects some statistical noise (as it was accompanied by an unusually sharp increase in the participation rate) and we expect some retracement. </span>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Readings from various forward-looking measures of the labour market are mixed, but in general suggest employment growth should be sufficient to stabilise the unemployment rate in coming months. Capacity utilisation, which has historically led the unemployment rate, continues to improve and the employment series in the NAB survey (while soft) is suggesting job creation of 15k per month - enough to keep pace with now slower population growth.</span><br><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Consumers remain cautious, but spending has picked up moderately with growth in retail sales volumes accelerating a little in Q2. Retail sales for the month of June were particularly strong (both traditional and online), which could partly reflect spill-over from small business spending encouraged by Budget measures targeted at micro-businesses. Rising dwelling investment in the Eastern states could be another factor behind strong household goods sales. Nevertheless, consumers are nervous, with unemployment expectations high. Against a backdrop of subdued household income growth, we expect a modest pick up in consumer spending growth through to 2017, underpinned by a gradual decline in the household savings rate.</span><br><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Dwelling prices in Australia have risen to 11.1% in the year to July according to RP Data- Rismark. Strength remains concentrated in Sydney (18.4% y/y) and Melbourne (11.5%), but more moderate in the other states and negative in Perth (-0.6%) and Darwin (-5.3%). Undersupply of housing is particularly prevalent in Sydney, and to a lesser degree Melbourne. These markets are also being supported by foreign demand, as well as investor demand, which should slow somewhat as APRA attempts to limit growth in investor housing credit to 10% y/y (currently at 10.7%). Overall we see Australian house price increases to be around 6.1% in 2015 and slowing to 3.0% in 2016, a rate more consistent with household income growth.</span><br><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The outlook for mining investment remains starkly negative, with recent falls in commodity prices further questioning the viability of marginal projects. Dwelling investment is helping to plug the gap, although it’s potential to do so is limited by its small share of GDP (5%). Higher density developments (namely in Sydney and Melbourne) are contributing significantly to the construction pipeline, and the long lag times for these projects means high levels of approvals should drive further growth in construction until late 2016. In other sectors, trend improvement in business conditions, confidence and capacity utilisation (despite the payback in July), suggest an improving outlook for business investment. </span>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">However, non-residential building approvals remain weak and firms are reporting very high required ‘hurdle rates of return’ (13%) before investing. Indicators of medium-term investment expectations are at best mixed, with the ABS capex survey suggests an outright decline in non-mining capex in 2015/16, while the NAB Business Survey measure of capex intentions suggest a slightly less pessimistic outlook.</span><br><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month – 2.4% in 2014/15, 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17. Despite recent volatility in the labour market figures, our peak unemployment rate is unchanged at 61⁄4%, although spare capacity in the labour market is expected to remain for an extended period. Our central case is for the RBA to sit on its hands until late 2016 when a gradual tightening cycle begins.</span>
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<br><em><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and </span>can<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em>
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Non-residential building approvals remain weak: Alan Oster

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Despite reaching new record levels for the year, building approvals are showing the first signs of having peaked according to the latest ABS data for June released today. </span></p>
<p><span>The run of record approvals over the last financial year has created a pipeline of new housing construction activity at levels to finally </span><span>meet Australia’s needs after years of underbuilding. </span></p>
<p><span>Nationally the latest ABS Building Approvals were down 8.2% in June 2015 in </span><span>comparison to the previous month’s figure. </span><span>For the 12 months to June 2015 however the record-breaking run continued with 220,423 new dwellings approved in seasonally adjusted terms. This was up from 195,302 approvals for the same 12 month period to June 2014. </span></p>
<p><span>The figures point to the market operating as it should and responding to new macroprudential settings with the reduction in approvals likely pegged to investor based activity. </span></p>
<p><span>The good news here is that w</span><span>hen we compare building approvals figures with household formation rates the two are lining up</span><span>. </span></p>
<p><span>The bad news is the signs are suggesting this may have peaked. On average 154,000 new homes are built per year, but this has been falling short by between 2,000 and 14,000 homes of what is required each year over the past 10 years, creating a housing shortfall. However the approvals we have seen over the last twelve months will start to make a dent in the housing deficit, especially in Sydney. </span></p>
<p><span>With investment loans likely to be lower</span><span>, the critical issue is to ensure as many approvals are converted to actual builds as possible to boost supply, especially in Sydney where pricing pressures have been predominantly due to undersupply. </span></p>
<p><span>The danger is that measures to contain house price growth in Sydney and Melbourne mean new housing drops away in other states. These states have only just come back to moderate, long-term five-yearly average house price growth off the back of recent strong building activity. </span></p>
<p><span>Declining investor numbers and new taxes on foreign investment will impact on the number of approvals that progress to construction. It is vital that strong supply is maintained to moderate housing prices particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. </span></p>
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<p><span>Governments need to continue to focus on supply side efficiencies in land release, improvements to development assessment and reform of inefficient taxes such as stamp duty to support continued supply</span><span>. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/07/30/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-30%20at%201.44.43%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/07/30/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-30%20at%201.44.43%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><em>Nick Proud is executive director of residential for The Property Council of Australia and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyoz.com.au/Profiles/ProfileDetail.aspx?pid=75" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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