Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Bubble

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Guest observation
Everyone is talking about a housing price bubble, particularly in Sydney, but is this really the case?
In my honest opinion, I think probably not at this stage. Although I do predict that we will see an influx of struggle-stories in the press.
It's safe to say that both Melbourne and Sydney markets are continuing with a strong growth pattern. Melbourne, in particular, documented a very strong capital growth rate throughout August at 2.31%. Sydney closely followed this at 1.52%.
The Sydney median house price now sits at a very high $852,500, which is getting closer and closer to that $1 million benchmark. So the question is, when do we expect to see our capitals hitting those million-dollar medians?
Million-dollar cities
Based on the historical data, our predicted growth rate for Sydney has been calculated at 5% for the next five years. This suggests that Sydney houses will hit the million-dollar value mark in three years. However, the predictions indicate that growth rates are going to slow in the short term, before increasing to 6% on average per annum towards the end of the next five years.
If the above scenario is the outcome, this would mean that Sydney would breach a million-dollar median value within five years, most likely during the first half of 2019. In Melbourne, a similar growth trend indicates that it will take ten years to reach a $1 million median, expected to occur during 2024.
Two million-dollar suburbs
Based on these predictions, in turn we expect that the number of suburbs with a median value of $2 million will increase. Today's figures show that there are currently 277 suburbs in Sydney with a median house value of over $1 million, with 41 of these currently breaching a $2 million median.
With this level of growth, we anticipate that by 2019 there will be 91 suburbs in Sydney with a median value in excess of $2 million. This suggests that around 9.5 per cent of the city will fall into this category, while the city portion that will fall under a $1 million house price median will be 43.25%t.
Australia's highest-value suburb, in terms of a median house price, is currently the eastern Sydney neighbourhood of Point Piper, where the current median sits at $8.099 million.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below to continue.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Unaffordability
Data shows that the Sydney market is slowing, although not as quickly as we would like it to. The current stance is that the level of unaffordability in the capital is now at historic highs, with loan repayments on a median house equating to approximately 54 per cent of an after-tax median salary.
These figures are extraordinarily high, which would usually send the market into retreat; although the fact that the market continues to display strong growth levels indicates that there is another issue.
I expect that this current level of unaffordability is causing the 'housing bubble' concerns. However, there is another potential explanation, and that is that the Sydney market purchasers have changed, so the affordability ratios are no longer valid simply because median income families are not buying the median income home.
Those who fall into the median income family bracket in Sydney are currently most likely to be renters, with the actual buyers being seasoned property investors with higher than average salaries. Median income families in Sydney are now buying on the city fringes where prices are currently more affordable.
Back to the bubble
Returning to the issue at hand, in my view, a housing bubble exists when there is significant growth in asset values, and the asset value growth is driven by borrowings. In more general terms, a bubble comes about through greed and carelessness from both lenders and borrowers in a situation where there is an oversupply of stock.
Are we in this situation currently? Well, there's nothing to suggest that we are. I believe our banks and financial intermediaries have stable risk management policies in place, despite their aggression in trying to maintain their market share.
In my opinion, the driving growth factor seems to be driven by existing homeowners who have much more reasonable levels of income and assets to support their property purchases. Due to this, the lenders can also be more aggressive due to having to compete in these market conditions.
There will always be a group of people who will ultimately cause lenders problems in an environment where there are high house prices and low interest rates. This is a consequence of some buyers overstretching themselves and getting caught up in a change in personal circumstances. As a word of warning, I would suggest that this is not the time to stretch your capacity and excessively borrow, but to look towards a lower cost investment and avoid the stress and potential pitfalls.
In the days ahead, I expect dwelling price growth rates to slow, with the market stabilising and exhibiting little growth throughout 2015. Those who are looking to make a first investment shouldn't rush into anything, and instead wait until the market moves into this more consolidating phase.
If you are looking for a more in depth analysis of my property research, you can find this in the Investor Centre at <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">Onthehouse.com.au.</a>
John Edwards is the consulting analyst for onthehouse.com.au.
 
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jedwards-8kHM8GNY6d

Housing prices: Boom or bubble?

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Q: Is there a housing bubble?
A: Nationally no, but if we are talking about Sydney, Melbourne and new inner Brisbane apartments, then yes.  That's a YES, in case you somehow missed it.
Sydney and Melbourne have been distorted by an influx of 'grey' money coming from China. Many don't like to hear this, but it is happening. No hard statistics, but our groundtruthing is looking worthy of a hefty bet.  And of late, some of this grey has shifted north, along with local superannuation funds looking for cheap property &amp; a longish timeframe to settle, in the hope of double digit price growth.
Brisbane always follows Sydney, right?  Property is so cheap in Brisbane, hey! You can buy two in Brisbane for the price of just one in Sydney. Bris Vegas here we come.
Sidebar
I have an internal debate several times each month – it's fun, like talking to an imaginary friend – about whether or not to write on a certain topic. 
Do I let blast about China? Publish my thoughts about smaller apartments?  Call out all those BS artists promising double digit price growth &amp; rental increases?  And this week, it's a yes.  Write something about the Reserve Bank (RBA), Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and how we will all be rooned.
We'll all be rooned
Now, there is nothing wrong with a global property market, nor being in the recovery phase of the property cycle and having closer ties to China – or any of our major trading partners for that matter.
But a housing bubble is a different story.
Property values have almost trebled over the past two decades, while wages have not kept pace. House prices in both Sydney, Melbourne, some parts of Perth and now across inner Brisbane, are often over 10 times household earnings. In many cases, weekly rents also far exceed 30% of a renter's income.
And things can start getting out of hand when the proportion of investors buying accounts for around half of all residential sales – double the 25% of the housing market made up by private renters. This happens every cycle, but its current trajectory is unsustainable.
Got some doubts?
Well this year alone, housing credit and house prices have climbed at, respectively, more than two and three times the rate of household income growth. It isn't the actual rate of credit and price growth that is the problem, but their relationship with our ability to afford this inflation.
It's true that this is mostly a Sydney and Melbourne phenomenon, but we only have a few blunt tools in the back of our ute to temper the times. And besides, we have never been that good at small, fiddly renovations. Slash and burn is more our style.
The good and the bad
Yes, there are reasons for property demand to be improving – we have record low interest rates, relatively low vacancy rates, high population growth and a strong penchant for owning property.
But on the flip side, we have falling commodity prices, an employment baton change which, for the life of me, I cannot see happening smoothly nor correspondingly, little wage growth, ageing demographics, high debt, an increasingly economically wobbly China and a close to epileptic Europe. Not to mention what may or may not happen with the rest of the world.
For those who only hear good news, you might have missed that Australia's federal budget deficit last year (2013/14) was close to $50 billion &amp; yet the Palmer United Party wants to keep the red ink flowing until the early 2020s. 
If that happens, then our prized AAA sovereign credit rating could be at risk, especially if something goes wrong with our economy – or that of a major trading partner.
In short, we might see the vulnerable economic conditions of southern Europe down under.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below to continue.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
True blue
But in true ocker fashion – it's all "she'll be right mate", "nothing to see here". Those questioning our "property at all costs" mentality need to take a double dose &amp; retire to bed early. Keep on moving on. Bid higher at that auction. Buy something tiny and off-plan. Doesn't property double in value every seven years? You cannot lose.
Too far-fetched?
Well, our real wages are falling. Yes, falling, as average earnings rose just 2.3% over the last 12 months – that's 0.3% lower than inflation. Unemployment is over 6%, without counting the 700,000-plus on disability pensions.
True, the RBA does predict higher economic growth next year, real wage growth in some distant future and lower employment one day, maybe, but this is predicated on the assumption that nothing economic will go bang or that China's economy won't slow down further.
Excuse me for being a skeptic, but trying to predict an economic future, these days, is almost impossible.  I would just love to read or hear one of those talking eco heads say something like, "well, frankly we don't have a bloody clue".
If you ask me what's going to happen, your guess is as good as mine.
But I do like to guess, so here goes.
<ul>
<li>Government will not reign in spending; we (the senate) won't allow it.</li>
<li>No workplace reforms, for fear of a union campaign.</li>
<li>The RBA will continue jawboning and keep interest rates where they are (when looking at the whole of the Australian economy – not just housing in Sydney and Melbourne – they really need to fall).</li>
<li>Plenty of talks about macro-prudential action – like higher investment loan to value ratios; changes to property taxation or minimum product sizes – but nothing done. Maybe that is a good thing?</li>
<li>No enforcement by FIRB regarding illegal overseas buying – and it has almost all been illegal in recent years.</li>
</ul>
And it's the last point that is the most pertinent right now.  If you want to slow down the Sydney, Melbourne and inner Brisbane property markets without stopping the rest of the country, then you must enforce offshore buying laws.
Inert FIRB
An inert FIRB has done nothing to inhibit the grey economy that exists to get money out of China (ironically, helping them deflate their own housing bubble) &amp; into safer overseas havens like Australia.
It's true that the Chinese government imposes a $US50,000 a year limit that can be sent out of the country, but cashed-up Chinese bypass this system via personal relationships rather than transparent bank transfers. Heaps of property – just how much is unknown (but it shouldn't be) – is being bought this way in Sydney &amp; Melbourne, Perth, and now in Brisbane and starting to again on the Gold Coast.
Also, the Significant Investor Visa (SIV) is dominated by mainland Chinese who meet the $5 million requirement. They are paying stupid prices for potential development sites (with site values doubling in the past five years), but property economics do not apply here, as the SIV is really a fast-tracked qualification for a permanent visa. Dual nationality is the want, but sadly, too many Chinese just want an Aussie passport as an insurance policy, not a new way of life.
Lower down the chain – much lower, if you ask me – is another sheltered workshop – property spruikers flogging Chinese investors little high-rise boxes in Sydney, Melbourne and now Brisbane. Entire high-rise buildings are financed, built and sold for the Chinese market, with local buyers and developers rendered irrelevant. Small, one-bedroom dogboxes are the norm. The more the merrier. How divine, indeed!
And all of this should be illegal. If only FIRB would enforce the law!
All of this illicit activity is creating a demand that would not otherwise exist. Well at nowhere near the levels that it is increasing spruiked. Quarterly newspaper lift-outs about Australia's sudden urge to live on top of each other – I mean, come on.
And this, coupled with local superannuation investors – many of whom appear to have been sold a pup – has created valuations that are dangerously detached from average weekly earnings &amp; sustainable owner-resident demand.
But then again, it is Australia mate; stop all this fussing; she'll be right; tyranny of distance and all that stuff.
But seriously folks
But seriously, something has to be done.  We are now entering some serious hot water.
Here's another guess.  Nothing will happen until this gets political; economic sense doesn't seem to cut the mustard around here anymore.  The political wedge, for mine, come next federal election, is overseas buying.
But between now then, I will take Terry's advice – take a couple of aspirin &amp; have a good lie down. 
Michael Matusik is the founder of Matusik Property Insights, which has helped over 550 new residential projects come to fruition.  Read Michael's <a href="https://matusik.com.au/missive/" target="_blank">Blog</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>.
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michaelmatusik-49YzLvdmNv

Is there a housing bubble? Or should we all take a wee lie down?

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In case anyone needed someone to say it, Residex’s John Edwards has noted that Sydney is now more unaffordable than ever before recorded, and that prices are still rising.
Yet despite the headlines, he says there is no bubble.
Edwards noted that an affordability measure, based on median household income, is now at historic highs.
Sydney house growth from August 2012 to August 2013 was 9.43%. From August 2013 to August 2014 it was recorded at 16.93%. Over the last quarter, 3.5% growth was recorded, with 1.52% over the month.
Sydney's unit growth from August 2012 to August 2013 was 2.68%. From August 2013 to August 2014 it was recorded at 14.31%. Over the last quarter, 3.64% growth was recorded, with 0.1% over the month.
“It takes about 54% of after tax income to make loan repayments on the median value home of $852,500; it takes close to eight times the annual median income to buy the median Sydney home. These ratios are extraordinarily high based on historical data,” said John Edwards.
However, he noted that fortunately Sydney is slowing down, albeit not as quickly as had been expected.
“Historically, at these levels our markets would fall in value. It is this high level of un-affordability that probably leads many to suggest that we are in a “housing bubble”.
“However, something has changed: The buyers in our markets. Our measure is likely no longer as valid as it once was, because the current buyers are no longer median income families. Median income families living in the median value areas of Sydney are largely renting,” he said.
He noted that house and land buyers are second and third time purchasers with income levels much higher than the median recorded wage, and that median income families are purchasing in the slightly more affordable city fringe.
He notes that the median price is very high, just $147,500 from reaching the $1 million median value mark.
By the first half of 2019, Edwards forecasts that Sydney can be assumed to reach a median value of this amount.
“It is equally clear that there are going to be large numbers of suburbs with a median above $2 million,” he said.
“By the end of 2019 it is estimated that there will be 91 suburbs with a median value in excess of $2 million. This represents about 9.5% of the city. The percentage of the city with median suburb value over $1 million will be approximately 43.25%.”
However, despite this, he maintains there’s no suggestion of a bubble.
He notes that a bubble exists when significant growth in asset values is driven by borrowings.
“In more general terms it is driven by greed and lack of careful thought by both lenders and borrowers. It is excessive bank lending which allows leverage and preparedness by borrowers to pay unreasonable prices for property,” he said.
Nothing suggests we are in this situation, Edwards explains, noting that banks and financial intermediaries, while becoming more aggressive to maintain market share, have acceptable risk policies.
“The driving force behind the growth in values seems to be existing home owners who have reasonable levels of income and assets to support their property purchases which are likely investments.
“In this situation the lenders can be more aggressive due to the capacity of borrowers to meet their obligations,” he said.
{mijopolls 43}
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Sydney now more unaffordable than ever in recorded history, but no bubble: Residex

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I think we all need to have a cold shower, a few aspirin and a wee lie down.
Then, having calmed down a bit, conduct a rational assessment of our property markets, without the emotion, the self-serving hyperbole and the publicity-seeking rhetoric.
We seem to have arrived at a point where any price rise anywhere in Australia is deemed a crisis. We're also at a point where the argument (it doesn't deserve to be called a debate) about real estate is driven by the people who make the most noise, rather than those with the most knowledge.
And, saddest of all, Australia in 2014 is a place where few people who work in or use the media give a damn about fairness, accuracy or balance. The only thing that matters is the headline or the political points scored or the amount of publicity achieved.
There was a time when journalists performed a worthwhile role. They were the filters through which information and comment had to pass. Claims were challenged, information was checked and alternative views were sought.
No one got to write about a subject unless they had credentials.
Today employees of media organisations are often mere conduits for propaganda. The public is asked to accept that if it's in a press release, it's valid. If someone describing themself as an economist makes a statement, it's likely to be fact. If an offshore "analyst" makes an observation, it's news.
The outcome is a melting pot of extreme views. The missing ingredients are objectivity, scrutiny and balance.
Many journalists no longer feel the need to support their statements with evidence.
A writer from a major media company (not a property specialist but apparently a "personal finance writer") this week stated as fact that Australia has "inflated house prices" and "surging property prices across the country". And that was just the first sentence.
No evidence was presented to back those big statements; we were expected to accept them as truth, despite the writer's lack of expertise and the reality that all the research data contradicts the notion we have "surging property prices across the country". According to the numbers I see every day, it's simply a lie.
On the same day, a writer from a different media company, with even flimsier credentials, sought to justify a pre-conceived attitude that investors exploiting the tax system drive up property prices. He presented graphs which he claimed showed that "whenever investor activity increases, house prices go up".
He saw what he wanted to see but, in reality, the graphs showed nothing of the sort. They showed, in fact, that investors do not lead price rises – they follow them. In every step along the graph line, a change in investor activity came after a change in prices.
My three decades researching real estate has taught me that investors never instigate property booms - they follow them. The biggest force in real estate, always, is the sector comprising home buyers other than first-home buyers, who dominate most markets numerically and have the financial capacity and motivation to pay high prices.
Meanwhile, another columnist with a bee in his bonnet about Asian investors tried to argue that "an influx of murky money from China" had been distorting and inflating our property markets "for years".
There was little in the way of research evidence, just a convoluted set of statements that led to no apparent conclusion.
So there we had, on the same day, three writers, all of them working for major media organisations but none of them with any real estate expertise, all claiming "Australian property prices" were unreasonably high, but each blaming a different bogeyman – one claiming it was foreign investors, another pointing the finger at local investors boosted by negative gearing, and the third blaming slack lending standards.
The one thing they had in common is that they all got it wrong. And probably don't give a damn because the headline is the thing.
So, setting aside all the ego-driven noise, here's a reality check.
Sydney remains the only city to have produced boom growth to date. The figure so many misguided commentators keep quoting – and describing as "the surge in Australian property prices" – is nothing more than the average increase across the capital cities, greatly inflated by Sydney's growth.
The key thing is this: Sydney's upturn follows 10 years of under-performance. Even with the rises of the past year or so, Sydney's average growth over the past decade is still below par. As a number of the more rational observers have commented, Sydney has been playing catch-up. But, despite the recent increases, it still hasn't caught up.
Here are some examples of what I mean. The median house price for <a href="/news">Vaucluse</a> has increased 17% in the past 12 months, according to Australian Property Monitors, but the average annual rise in the past five years is just 1.4%. The 10-year growth average is 3% per year.
The median unit price for <a href="/news">Point Piper</a> is up 17% in 12 months, but the 10-year average is 1.5% per year. In real terms, they've lost value over the past decade.
In <a href="/news">Darling Point</a>, the median unit price today is lower than it was 10 years ago, despite the recent growth. They've lost money, even without allowing for inflation.
Heading out west to a more mainstream and affordable market, the suburb of <a href="/news">Blacktown</a> (Sydney's most popular suburb in terms of sales volumes) has recorded 18% median price growth in the past year, but it's 10-year average is just 3% per year.
You'll find similar numbers right across the Sydney metropolitan area. Even when you examine above-average performers, the numbers are still modest. Balgowlah's five-year growth average is 5% per year; its 10-year performance is 4.1% per year.
All the froth and bubble in the media is being caused almost exclusively by Sydney's growth, but in reality Sydney's long-term performance remains decidedly poor.
Take the recent Sydney growth out of the equation and the average growth in the past year across the other seven capital cities is 4-5%. And that follows several years of price decline.
But, amid the prevailing atmosphere that any price rise is a national disgrace, even that number would be described by some as a bubble.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can reach Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">twitter</a>.
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Headline obsessed writers need a reality check

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Guest observeration
Recently I read two very different articles about our 'property markets'.
The first was an in depth piece by arguably Australia's most accurate property analyst, Michael Matusik. The <a href="/expert-insights/finance/unprecedented-low-interest-rates-wont-last-forever">second article</a> was attributed to the chairman of Century 21 Real Estate, Charles Tarbey. Both articles rammed home why the average Australian finds it difficult to know (let alone understand) what's really happening in 'the property market'.
Matusik suggested that "caution and common-sense" are the order of the day for owner occupiers and investors alike (along with investing for rental income of course).
Tarbey on the other hand declared that there was no bubble in Australian real estate, and that "we're in a very steady adjustment growth mode driven by the shift to a market where buyers and sellers negotiate a fair price". Caution and common sense?
Neither pundit addressed this point though: your bank has a dirty little secret (weapon) that they can't wait to use on you.
Our current low interest rates and housing shortage issues have lured thousands of people each week into paying 'whatever it takes' to get into a property, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. There's so much evidence of this that it's just plain scary.
Whether you like it or not, Sydney is the undisputed engine of Australia. Melbourne comes in second and not-so-sleepy Brisbane is third in line.
So let's take a close look at Sydney, shall we? With 4.35 million residents, the largest workforce, strongest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and highest home prices in the nation. House prices (in Sydney and every other overheated market) are poised for a serious downward adjustment, not if, but when interest rates go back up from their current 50 year historical lows.
Most people flocking in to buy a home today don't understand that an interest rate of 6.70% isn't just a "bit more"; it's a whopping 37% extra interest each month.
How will life change for an average Sydney couple with a $400,000 mortgage currently and 4.89% interest rate? Their current monthly repayment is $2121 with an interest component of $1630; and they're paying the principal down by $491 a month. It will take them 30 years to own that home at that rate.
But what happens when their interest rate goes back to 6.70% - still well below the long term average?
Have a look at the 'smoke &amp; mirrors' their bank uses to hide its dirty little secret. Although the monthly repayment for our Sydney couple jumps by $460 to $2581, the interest component jumps by almost $150 more, from $1630 to $2233.
The interest component on their loan is now $112 a month more than their previous principal and interest repayment.
Their interest is now $603 higher, however their monthly repayment only increased by $460. Even though their monthly repayment jumped by almost 22% - the interest component jumped by 37%.
Hello, did you see that: they've gone from paying almost $500 a month off, to now only reducing the debt by just $348 each month.
Kiss that 30 year repayment period goodbye!
Score 1:0 to their bank, who win big time, with each rate rise working in their favour.
 This article continues on the next page. Please click below to continue.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
So I simply cannot agree with Tarbey's view. When people are competing in record numbers, for the few properties available, and prepared to pay above the odds to secure a place to call home, then common sense has gone out the window.
I know we're in a bubble right now, when real estate agents tell me that the house I bought for $680,000 just over five years ago would probably now fetch $1.1m.
I know we're in a bubble right now, when real estate agents tell me that they'll now accept "offers over $280,000" for the two bedroom units I was buying for investor clients 21 months ago for $200,000 - and their rents have either remained static or dropped $10 a week in the process.
I know we're in a bubble right now, because my house hasn't increased in value by over $500,000 or 73%. I know we're in a bubble right now, because those two bedroom units haven't increased in value by $80,000 or 40%.
I also know we're heading for a severe correction in those markets because:
<ul>
<li>This insanity is driven by an abundance of cheap money</li>
<li>The supply component is out of synch to match the demand caused by the abundance of cheap money</li>
<li>Money is the cheapest it's been in over 50 years because our economy is in trouble</li>
<li>Borrowing to the hilt because you can afford to pay whatever it takes for 'that' property based on today's interest rates is maybe the new definition of insanity</li>
</ul>
Michael Matusik, I think you're closer to the truth than even you might know.
What should you do right now? A couple of things, actually:
<ul>
<li>Get rid of all that credit card debt, personal loans, and any other high interest rate facilities</li>
<li>If you can't get rid of that debt, if you've got enough equity in your home consider rolling those debts into your home loan. Better still, roll them into a separate facility and pay it off over say three to five years</li>
<li>Seriously consider switching your home and/or investment property loan to either a three or five year Fixed Rate loan - sooner rather than later</li>
<li>Pay more than the minimum repayment on your home and/or investment property loans; in fact use these ridiculously low interest rates to pay as much extra as you can afford</li>
<li>Right now, the smartest thing you can do - for you - is to reduce debt fast. The lowest interest rates in five decades is your best chance to do this, probably in five decades.</li>
</ul>
 
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klee-LzAEhB2j7n

Your bank has a dirty little secret

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At last, some informed comments about Australian real estate by someone in a position of authority.
Joe Hockey isn’t my favourite politician, but the Federal Treasurer has a better handle on residential property than all of our chattering economists, the overseas analysts who appear obsessed with Australian prices and the twits at the Reserve Bank who speak to the public about real estate as if they were lecturing primary school students.
Hockey has criticised offshore commentators looking at Australian real estate through a very long and out-of-focus telescope. He has<a href="/news/joe-hockey-dubs-housing-bubble-claims-as-lazy-analysis"> accused them of “lazy analysis”</a>. He might have pointed the figure equally at the RBA.
Glenn Stevens continues to fret about “soaring real estate prices” and has pumped out a series of Real Estate #101 lectures to the public; such as this platitude: “People should be aware that real estate prices do not always rise. Sometimes they fall.”
Hockey’s absolutely right about lazy analysis. It’s just too easy to look at a single average figure for one-year price growth across our major cities and rush out a press release claiming a bubble in the hope of some cheap publicity– and media always obliges without ever thinking to ask a question or two.
Hockey has made it clear he’s not interested in taking action on what one newspaper termed “spiraling property prices”. That’s because we don’t have spiraling prices, other than in Sydney, which is playing catch-up after 10 years in which average price growth barely kept pace with inflation.
Hockey pointed out that big growth has been limited to only small parts of the national market. “It's primarily in pockets of Sydney, pockets of Melbourne and, to a lesser degree, in Brisbane," Hockey said.
The Federal Treasurer has done something that 99% of economists haven’t done. He has looked behind the average growth figure for the 12 year (about 10% or 11%, according to most research sources) and discovered that none of our capital cities have had growth that big, other than Sydney.
It’s not rocket science - indeed it’s the most basic of analysis that would take approximately five seconds - but incredibly most economists haven’t done that.
Hockey said this week many parts of Australia had experienced no significant increase in property prices, therefore any action to cool the market must be "very targeted and it needs to have some capacity to be time-limited".
Here’s the bottom line, based on price data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Annual growth in prices has been 2% in Canberra, 3% in Darwin, 4% in Perth and in Hobart, 5% in Adelaide, 6% in Brisbane and 9% in Melbourne.
There is no Australian property boom. There has been, so far, a Sydney property boom.
Does that constitute a Sydney price bubble? Well, no. This is the first major growth in Sydney prices in 10 years. ANZ chief executive Phil Chronican commented: “Sydney has been <a href="/news/nsw/sydney-property-price-playing-catchup-anzs-philip-chronican">playing catch-up</a>.”
Despite the growth of the past 18 months, the average annual rise in house prices in most Sydney suburbs has been 3% to 4% in the past decade. Prices have barely kept pace with inflation.
Even with the most vivid imagination, it is impossible to construct a bubble from those facts.
Shakespeare <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/5926-the-first-thing-we-do-let-s-kill-all-the-lawyers" target="_blank">almost got it right</a>. First thing we do, we get rid of all the economists.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Joe Hockey is right, 'bubble' chatter is lazy analysis

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The Reserve Bank of Australia’s warning of a housing bubble doesn’t apply to South East Queensland, according to leading house and land developer Ausbuild.
The Reserve Bank's meeting minutes revealed some concern around house prices and said that they were putting them under “close observation”, but Ausbuild's joint managing director Matt Bell said that South East Queensland’s situation is not a replica of Melbourne and Sydney.
“The housing construction sector is moving at a steady, sustainable pace, with land being released at a rate that is meeting demand in a responsible way,” Bell said.
“Prices are still competitive, and will continue to be so, given the steady and continuous rate of supply by developers in the market.”
The last thing Queensland needs, said Bell, is buyers getting the jitters when they’re just getting confidence to enter the marketplace post-GFC.
“Confidence is everything when people are looking to make what is the most significant purchase of their lifetime,” he said.
It appears observer Terry Ryder agrees with the comments that there isn't a bubble, particularly when you take Sydney out of the equation.
"The statistics suggest that all [the markets] are up by 10%, when in fact if you take Sydney out of the equation it's clear that this isn't the case," Ryder said. He notes that Sydney is playing catch up after many years of stagnancy.
While Ryder says that South East Queensland isn't "immune" to the effects of the market, at present it represents some of the strongest growth opportunities in the country with more growth markets in the area than in any other location in Australia.
He doesn't necessarily recommend the Gold Coast, but says that South East Queensland as a whole includes some of the more dynamic markets in the country.
Buyer's agent Todd Hunter, from Sydney-based wHeregroup, noted that there are many markets within South East Queensland, including areas where houses are undervalued at sub-$400,000.
He said that prices are starting to head northbound, and while Sydney and Melbourne have been booming for two years, South East Queensland is only just starting to heat up.
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RBA’s “bubble” warning doesn’t apply to South East Queensland: Ausbuild

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Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s concerns about the housing market’s price growth, it appears that not all are changing their predictions of a period of rate stability and macro involvement isn’t on everyone’s radar.
Westpac’s chief economist, Bill Evans, has noted in their latest bulletin that they are not altering their rate forecast – expecting the first hike to be in 2015.
He notes that they expect the rise to be in 2015’s September quarter, driven by a global outlook, modest lift in consumer spending momentum, non-mining investment and a falling unemployment rate.
While house prices and credit growth are also expected to also be rising, he says it will not be at a sufficiently rapid pace to trigger a rate increase.
However, Evans does note that the RBA is likely to either maintain or step up its public warning around housing prices and investor activity.
“A reasonable conclusion is that Australia is unlikely to introduce the New Zealand style of direct macro prudential controls,” he said.
He noted that APRA may lift its intensity of communication to ADI boards and even impose another round of stress testing, though it’s conceded that banks already regularly conduct stress testing.
“It seems unlikely that, at this stage, it would adopt the policies of 2003 where it raised the risk weighting on home loans and increased the capital requirements of mortgage insurers,” he said.
His notes suggest that the current boom is not a replica to that of the early 2000s, despite its similarities.
“The 2000-03 period bears some comparison with the current situation. In that earlier period annual growth in credit to investors peaked at 30% and overall housing credit  growth peaked at 22%,” he said.
The household debt ratio had risen by “26ppts in just two years” and lending standards were seen to have eased.
However, compared to the current environment, clear differences emerge.
“Currently annual credit growth for investors is running at 8.9% with the 6mth annualised pace at 9.5%,” he said.
“Overall housing credit is running at a steady 6.7% annual pace. The household debt to income ratio has risen 4ppts over the last year and remains below its peaks in 2010 and 2007.”
While the debt to income ratio level is higher than it had been in 2003, he notes that they believe this understates the extend of Australian households’ deleveraging since 2007, including accumulating funds in offset accounts.
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RBA’s bubble warning has not changed ‘on hold’ prediction: Westpac

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey has dismissed the idea that a property bubble is forming in Australia, citing the lack of supply as a primary reason for our high domestic prices.
This is an analysis that we, Propell National Valuers, agree with, <a href="/expert-insights/does-australia-really-have-the-most-overvalued-property-in-the-world">as set out in an article we published last month</a>.
The statement follows statistics published by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and The Economist showing that, as measured against income and rents, Australia had one of the highest relative price levels in the world (Only Belgium had higher prices.)
Joe Hockey called their surveys “lazy analysis”. We would agree that the reports are based on “rules of thumb” that are interesting but only have limited application. The same surveys showed Chinese prices as some of the cheapest in the world, but no-one is expecting Chinese prices to increase.
Anyone who wants to argue that Australia is in a housing bubble should also argue that Chinese real estate is at bargain prices, and no-one believes the latter to be the case.
BIS quoted Australia as having the largest price increase in the past year:
“Year-on-year residential property prices, deflated by CPI, rose by 9.5% in the United States and 6% in the United Kingdom. Real house prices also grew, by 7% in Canada, 7.7% in Australia and 2.2% in Switzerland, three countries that were less affected by the crisis, as well as in some countries that were severely affected by the crisis, such as Ireland (+7.2%) and Iceland (+6.4%).”
The BIS statement matches a recent article in The Economist (30 August 2014 edition):
“Australia has one of the most over priced housing markets in the world.”
However, this is based on a couple of simplistic measures, being price versus rents, and price versus income.
Measured against rents, they assert that Australia as a whole is 55% over valued, the only markets exceeding this being New Zealand, Canada, Belgium and Hong Kong.
Measured against income, they assert that Australia is 33% over valued, the highest figure in the world.
Given the disparity of price growth in our cities, this implies that Sydney and Melbourne are way overvalued, while the other capital cities are a little above fair value.
But is this an accurate way to measure under/over valuation?
Against income, The Economist says that Australia is 33% overvalued. But at the other end of the scale, they also say that China is 38% undervalued.
If we accept the logic that Australian prices are too high, then we would also accept that Chinese prices are too low. Yet the consensus opinion is that the Chinese market is oversupplied and that prices could fall.
Even Chinese buyers are conspicuous in buying Sydney real estate, indicating that they see better value in Australia than in China.
In a blog article last month we highlighted the major driver of prices: supply v demand. Joe Hockey is right to draw attention to the supply/demand equation in justifying the present level of house prices.
China may well be undervalued by comparison with incomes, but another factor is at work. The market is considerably oversupplied, with plenty of reports highlighting the amount of constructed yet empty apartment space in and around the major cities. So the excess of supply over demand has kept prices lower by comparison with incomes.
In Australia, we have the opposite equation: supply has not kept up with demand, and excess demand is driving prices up. To the extent that demand is supporting prices, there is a good argument to say that our prices are not too high.
Rising prices should be a signal to increase supply. Indeed, levels of new home construction are improving, but not at the pace that would reduce prices. Supply is relatively inelastic, with impediments to new supply including lack of available land (where it is wanted) and planning limitations.
This can easily explain why Sydney prices have been increasing at the fastest pace. Simplistically, the demand is for inner city housing, while supply is most elastic on the metro fringes. The lack of sufficient supply in Australia is a result of inelastic availability of land, plus, what land there is, tends to be at the fringe of cities, whereas demand is for residences closer to the CBD. Inner city suburbs are encouraged to increase residential densities but this often comes up against the NIMBY factor, existing owners oppose higher density developments in their neighbourhood.
On the demand side, our high level of immigration has the effect of increasing demand which cannot easily be satisfied. Immigration policy appears to be set without reference to the domestic ability to cater for their housing needs, but policies are unlikely to change in the short term.
So Australia remains in a position of having insufficient supply of residences. Prices may be high relative to rents, but at present interest rate levels the market continues to be supported by buyers and there is no suggestion of it being overpriced. If interest rates rise, then that would change the equation, but we are not there yet.
Linda Phillips is national research manager with <a href="https://www.propell.com.au/" target="_blank">Propell National Valuers</a>.
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LindaPhillips-Aic2YD9SM3

Joe Hockey says bubble talk is "lazy", but is he right?

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The Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey has again dismissed suggestions of an Australian housing bubble. He says prices prices have been substantial.
 “It is just an easy mantra for international commentators and for analysts based overseas to say 'well there's a housing bubble emerging in Australia," he said.
"But I don’t see at the moment, any substantial risk."
Saying rising prices were reacting to a lack of supply, Hockey told the Bloomberg seminar the claim that property buying households and investors were taking on too much debt was wrong.
“I’m not so sure it’s credit-fuelled,” he said.
“There’s a lot of cash going into property now.”
He said the recent surge in new dwelling construction – much of it the result of foreign investment – might go some way to addressing housing shortages in the country, especially in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
“Australia fundamentally doesn’t produce enough houses to meet demand,” the Treasurer said.
“It is just an easy mantra for international commentators, for analysts based overseas to say ‘well, you know, there’s a bit of a housing bubble emerging in Australia’.
“That is rather a lazy analysis, because fundamentally we don’t have enough supply to meet demand.
“That doesn’t suggest there’s a bubble; there might be a price increase of some substance, but you’d expect the market to react and produce some more housing.”
Hockey also suggested a lower Australian dollar might encourage more investment in new housing.
International investment in Australia’s housing market “may well increase” with a cooling of the Australian dollar, he said.
Hockey urged state governments to do some of the “heavy lifting” in increasing the housing supply.
{module Do you agree with Joe Hockey’s statement that there’s no housing bubble?}
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