The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a> development in Melbourne's inner west is showing that landscaping can be just as influential as architecture, with buyers responding strongly to the garden-first approach adopted from the outset by developer Excelon Projects and the project's design team.

Excelon appointed Six Degrees Architects and landscape architects SBLA to work collaboratively on the development, with a brief to create "a sustainable, design-led building with a focus on community."

That approach has resonated with buyers. According to Next Chapter Director Tom Hirini, who is leading the sales campaign, the landscaped communal garden has become one of the project's defining features, alongside its boutique scale and European-inspired cluster housing concept.

Local downsizers, right-sizers and established families already living in Yarraville and surrounding suburbs have accounted for the majority of purchasers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297740]

Yarraville Green will comprise 53 homes, including apartments and townhomes, arranged around the shared central garden to maximise connections to the landscaped open space. Parking has been moved underground, allowing the ground plane to be dedicated to greenery, pedestrian movement and communal spaces.

The landscape extends well beyond passive planting. Productive garden beds, a pergola, communal gathering spaces, garden sheds and a pet wash have all been integrated into the masterplan, creating spaces designed to encourage everyday interaction between residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297741]

The interiors continue Excelon's focus on craftsmanship, incorporating bespoke elements by Melbourne artisans including leadlight detailing by Adadaz, hand-turned timber hardware by Auburn Woodturning and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen.

Sustainability has also been embedded throughout the project, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating through passive design principles, rooftop solar servicing common areas and rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297735]

Construction continues to progress at Yarraville Green, with structural works well underway and framing works approaching completion under builder Balmain &amp; Co. The project remains on track for completion in mid-2027.

Apartments at Yarraville Green are currently priced from $625,000, while townhomes start from $1.4 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]

Joel Robinson

Garden-led design drives buyer demand at Yarraville Green

National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]

Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]

Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]

Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 41-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 41-storey tower, which has 229 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Bubble

<html><body>
There is a "clear risk" of house prices falling in Australia, according to an international asset management company.
In a recent report on Australia's economy, senior economist for Alliance Bernstein, Guy Bruten, noted a "looming housing correction" amid post-commodity-boom conditions.
"Yes, people are still talking about the upswing phase, but we suspect that will change in the coming months," Bruten wrote.
"There's an obvious impact on the Western Australian housing sector. Perth has already been underperforming, relative to Sydney at least, after outperforming dramatically through the commodity-boom phase.
"More of that is likely to come."
<img src="/images/2015/01/21/Picture%202.png" alt="">
Source: Alliance Bernstein
In the report, titled Australia: Still Fundamentally Bearish, Bruten also noted Sydney's 30% price growth over the past two years, referring to the "boom (bubble?) in Sydney's prices".
"Much of that reflect investor activity – in aggregate, lending growth to investors is running at 10% year on year."
"But with signs of oversupply starting to emerge in pockets of the market, and with APRA (the prudential regulator) starting to offer 'guidance' – a weak form of macroprudential policy – one wonders how long this can continue.
"There's a clear risk that falling house prices may be the next phase in the post-commodity-boom adjustment story."
<img src="/images/2015/01/21/Picture%203.png" alt="">
Source: Alliance Bernstein
Despite positive employment figures released last week, Alliance Bernstein is still forecasting an interest rate. Bruten, like many local economists, raised the issue of "noise" in the Australian Bureau of Statistic's labour force figures, writing: "When we dig down into the detail, it's hard to discern a shift in trend."
Of Australia's unemployment rates by region, he noted "not much change", writing that: "mining is still deteriorating; manufacturing is struggling, too; and the more diversified parts of the country are doing better."
He attributed New South Wales' relatively strong economic performance, in part, to its housing market.
Alliance Bernstein is an asset management firm with US$474 billion (A$580 billion) in assets under management. It is listed on the New York stock exchange.
{mijopolls 77}
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Bearish housing correction looms while Sydney faces bubble question: Alliance Bernstein

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The last two years have been somewhat of a testing ground for making property price forecasts informed by <a href="https://ckmurray.blogspot.com.au/2011/07/murrays-retrospective-indicator-for" target="_blank">my indicator</a>, which has a new name – the Speculation Index.
It is the ratio of housing gross yields to mortgage interest rates and captures the degree of price growth speculation embedded in current prices.
<a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/buySellLongTerm1.png" rel="lightbox[335668]"><img class="alignnone wp-image-337022 size-full" src="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/buySellLongTerm1.png" alt="buySellLongTerm" width="700" height="352"></a>
Source: Cameron Murray and Philip Soos.
Above is a new long-term series of this Index using data compiled by Philip Soos. It offers a number of insights into the history of housing credit, the durability of cycles in periods of apparent macroeconomic stability, and offers a warning about the future of residential property markets to those who hold out hope that maybe now is the beginning of that elusive era of stability.
The primary lesson from the long-term Speculative Index is that the easy money era since the late 1960s has been qualitatively similar to the pre-WWII period in terms of cyclical patterns, but far different in terms of scale. Whether this has to do with the openness of credit markets, dual incomes, or the development of private investor markets in Australian housing, it is best to consider this period a unique conflation of institutions that cannot be compared to prior periods.
Or it could just be terrible data. Take your pick.
We can gaze back at the early part of the 20th century, which followed a massive housing boom and slump, particularly in Melbourne, during the 1890s. The first decade, by this measure, was a period of relative stability for property prices in Australia.
After WWI a property boom took hold, peaking around 1921 as yields fell and interest rates crept upwards, and followed by a long slump that continued through the Great Depression. During WWII the market was completely unmoved as resources were sucked out of domestic private markets into the war effort and various administrative controls kept prices and rents steady.
The renowned stability of the 1950s and 1960s is on display in this metric as well, with housing capitalisation rates very stable compared to yields, with almost no price speculation built into prices. Perhaps this was primarily a product of tight credit to households, coordinated construction efforts, and relatively high levels of non-housing investment.
Post 1970 the modern finance era <a href="https://www.econ.mq.edu.au/Econ_docs/research_papers2/2004_research_papers/Abelson_9_04.pdf" target="_blank">kicked off with a Sydney boom</a>, which <a href="https://ckmurray.blogspot.com.au/2011/07/sydney-housing-boom-ripple-effect" target="_blank">rippled</a> across states and was over by about 1974. Then the 1980s saw another round of smaller surges of speculation, ultimately collapsing in 1989 and leading to a recession a few years later. The end of the 1990s recession ended appeared to be the best time to buy property in the past two decades, as this index and a whole host of property-related <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/12/the-history-of-australian-property-values-redux-2/" target="_blank">metrics indicate</a>.
The massive 2000s boom then rippled across the nation, and as interest rates where ratcheted up on falling property yields we see another index peak in 2008, which plunged back in response to substantial stimulatory interest rates cuts.
In essence, housing prices were rescued by the RBA during this period. Historically low mortgage interest rates, the influx of foreign investment into the housing market (and mining) and the Rudd government’s bailout of the banking and financial system saved the day.
As I <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/melting-towards-the-bottom-of-the-housing-cycle/" target="_blank">wrote early last year</a>, my Speculative Index again showed it was an opportune time to buy Australia housing. Prices are up over 10% nationally since, and around 17% in Sydney. Currently this Index suggests there is more to run in the national price cycle. Prices being more likely to rise than fall in the near future.
I add a dashed prediction line to show what might be the next moves in this Index, jointly arising from a number of evolving trends including
<ul>
<li>Rising mortgage interest rates 
</li>
<li>Flat or falling rents 
</li>
<li>Rising prices</li>
</ul>
For example, if prices rise by 10%, mortgage rates rise by 0.75%, while rents are flat, the Index will shift up to 2.1. That’s still a long way off the type of irrational exuberance we normally see, taking us only halfway from the buy line to the sell line.
Unless we see significant credit controls in the housing market, it is likely we will continue the property price cycle we have just started. This cycle itself will compress yields while rents are stable and result in a surge of the index, providing the boom for necessary for the next bust. The RBA, as usual, will be too late to increase interest rates. Governments at all levels will be too uncoordinated to increase public investment to smooth the transition to a higher rates or tighter credit environment.
If the Georgist 18 year average period of asset cycles has merit, then we are now likely living in a period much like mid 1990s – still cautious from recent experience and ignorant of the property cycle about to get under way. Remember though that this Index does not represent prices, but reflects the degree of speculative fervour in the market. The Index can rise without price price increases if rents are flat and mortgage interest rates are rising. Which of these factors we see play out will determine the scale of the price gains likely to be experienced.
Looking at the history of this index, coupled with the recent success of using its cyclical pattern to predict property market movements, suggests it is unlikely that ‘this time is different’.
Cameron Murray is an economist and PhD candidate at University of Queenland. 
Philip Soos is an economist and post graduate candidate at Deakin University. He has recently co-authored <a href="https://www.worldeconomicsassociation.org/files/Bubble_Economics_Egan_Soos.pdf" target="_blank">Bubble Economics: Australian Land Speculation 1830-2013 </a>with Paul D Egan.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/" target="_blank">MacroBusiness</a>.
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Property speculation to continue boom, but will a bust follow?

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We’re not in a property bubble, according to CommSec chief economist Craig James, but we are experiencing a “balancing” in Sydney.
With a slowdown in national home prices recorded by CoreLogic RP Data, and mixed results across capital city housing markets, James noted that there is no need for the Reserve Bank to progress with macroprudential controls on property investors.
“In essence, the market is correcting itself with more supply coming on to the market as evidenced by new listings and softer demand for homes in response to the higher prices. There is no bubble – demand ran ahead of supply in some capital cities like Sydney but markets are balancing,” James said.
With house prices down 0.3% in November and apartment prices up 0.1%, it’s not surprising that some are wondering if the growth is now over.
ANZ’s David Cannington has also focused on the easing down from the mid-2014 peak, but notes that positive home buyer sentiment and fundamentals still exist.
“Sydney house price gains are leading the pack, with a pick up in population growth driving strong underlying housing demand and solid capital growth attracting residential property investors,” wrote Cannington.
“Nonetheless, we expect house price momentum will ease heading into 2015 with house price growth in Sydney and Melbourne in particular likely to be weighed down by deteriorating affordability.”
Over 2015, he says that the affordability gap will weigh on price growth in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

No bubble and no need for macroprudential control: Craig James

<html><body>
With double digit annual price growth in Sydney, some wonder whether we risk a spectacular end to this year's stellar price growth. Is Australia's property market caught in a bubble?
Earlier this year, US forecaster Harry Dent predicted the <a href="/news/property-crash-is-like-popping-popcorn-especially-in-melbourne-harry-dent">Melbourne property market</a> would eventually crash, saying: "Melbourne has been, actually, the biggest bubble in recent years and I would expect the biggest burst there." Melbourne wasn't alone – he also took aim at Sydney, Perth and Brisbane, apparently spotting a bubble in each city.
Our big banks are a good deal more skeptical about the presence of a bubble, though earlier this week, <a href="/expert-insights/buying/no-bubble-but-there-is-a-platform-for-one-to-develop-anz-s-warren-hogan">ANZ's Warren Hogan</a> said while we don't currently have a property bubble, "we have the platform to form a bubble in the next few years".
Though many doubt Australia is currently experiencing a bubble, the prospect of a sudden fall in home values have some nervous.
Property Observer took the question to the experts: What are the signs of a bubble?
Shane Oliver - AMP Capital head of investment strategy and chief economist <img src="/images/2014/09/11/shane-oliver-profile.jpg" alt="" style="float: right;">
The first one is the price gains themselves – if they've been rising rapidly for a lengthy period and they've diverged from underlying income levels or rents. In other words, the market's become overvalued. So rapid momentum in price growth and overvalued prices.
Another is a rapid rise in debt financing. Usually that comes with low interest rates, but when credit growth is running at double digit rates it's often a concern.
The last one is popular interest: everyone's talking about housing prices at dinner parties and every show on television is about property.
In Australia, lots of the markets get the tick in terms of overvaluation. That's why a lot of commentators have said a bubble is about to burst and that we should get ready for a 40% price decline, which just hasn't happened.
The issue is complicated by our undersupply of property, which keeps underlying demand going. We've got a bit more supply coming, but that's mostly units in certain capital cities. I would still give the "overvalue" criteria a tick.
Momentum is excessive in Sydney and there's no doubt about that. It might get a half tick in Melbourne. The other capital city markets? There's no sign of a bubble in any of them.
Credit growth has been quite modest in the past. I suppose what bothers me is credit growth at 10% for investors, although it's not near the 30% growth we were seeing a decade ago. So that gets half a tick.
Popular interest gets half a tick. People are certainly talking about property prices in Sydney, but in Hobart nobody's that excited about the market. You find the same thing in Brisbane and Adelaide – people there are bit skeptical of all the bubble talk.
So there are some signs of bubble – overall it's a bit "bubbly". Nationwide, I'm not prepared to say it's a bubble just yet.
Louis Christopher - <a href="https://www.sqmresearch.com.au/" target="_blank">SQM Research </a>managing director <img src="/images/authors/fullbody/Louis-Christopher.png" alt="" style="float: right;">
Massive speculation; sales prices going beyond fundamental valuations. Excessive and accelerated debt levels – so a massive debt boom is usually going on at the same time as well. These are normally the signals of what will be regarded as a bubble.
The problem is that sometimes you can have a recovery in the market, and it's just a normal part of the cycle, and it could be mistaken for a bubble, or vice versa.
So often it's very difficult to make a judgment until after the event.
At the Australian level, we're not seeing a bubble.
Number one, the market's not rapidly accelerating everywhere, just in very few areas – namely Sydney.
So what's going on with the Sydney market? Is it in a bubble? The answer is – we think – no. We can see a market which is still going into overvalued territory – but is it a massively overvalued? Compared to previous cyclical upticks, no.
2003 was a very dangerous time in Sydney and the fundamentals went way out of whack. It's not surprising that for the next few years it underperformed.
This recovery should be seen in the context of the last few years' performance. While we do believe a market has been moving into overvalued territory, we don't think it's enough to cause a massive overcorrection.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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Margaret Lomas - Author, television host and <a href="https://destiny.com.au/dotnetnuke/en-au/home.aspx" target="_blank">Destiny Financial Solutions</a> founder<img src="/images/authors/fullbody/Margaret-Lomas3.png" alt="" style="float: right;"> 
Property is considered to be in a bubble when rapid increases in the price of real property in a local area, country or even globally reaches unsustainable levels relative to incomes and rents, and then decline.  The degree of decline indicates whether the market simply stabilises, or bursts.
A property 'bubble' is not necessarily an indicator that a burst is imminent and many markets boom and then stabilise, rather than boom then crash.
As for the question being asked by everyone at present: "Are we in a property bubble?" Let's remember that this white hot market exists, at present, only in Sydney. Broadly speaking, Sydney came off a 9 year period of stable prices in 2012, making the measurement over the past 10 years (the common period that property price growth is measured) a very different picture indeed.
In addition, this situation of fast moving price growth isn't reflected as noticeably in other Australian markets, which comprise more than 80% of all dwellings.
More importantly, when considering the bubble question, it is to be noted that while housing has increased in price, many other common, every-day items, which comprise the cost of living, have dramatically decreased relative to incomes. 
While it may be true that the average home appears to cost seven times the average income today as opposed to three and four from many years ago, the proportion of disposable income available to the average person to spend on mortgage repayments has considerably increased.
In addition, homes today are larger and more luxurious than they were 30 years ago, providing more home for the additional price paid.
Andrew Wilson - <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/" target="_blank">Domain</a> Group senior economist <img src="/images/authors/fullbody/Andrew-Wilson.png" alt="" style="float: right;">
I do think that a bubble is a little hard to spot, but we do have a few that are operating at the moment.
The classic examples are the markets of Gladstone and Mackay. We spot a property bubble really when we get a strong buyer interest or strong supply in a short period of time. That's what happened in those markets.
It wasn't just small investors that rushed in. It was followed up by developers under projections there would be strong demand in the areas, due to mining.
Prices got so high that optional alternative accommodation was sought by those who were there, the majority of whom were Fly In Fly Out workers. And the bottom hasn't been found in that market yet.
If we look at the cycle, when a bubble bursts we clearly see the market falling below its previous trough.
Gladstone prices went from $300,000 to $700,000 and back down again. When it returns to $350,000 people will start to think it's gone back to its fundamental values.
Classically, a bubble occurs when we see a rapid increase in prices and rents, particularly if there is optional accommodation available, and people will turn to that.
We've never had a bubble burst in this country in the capital city markets.
We may see falling prices in some of those mining towns, but in larger markets where there's diversity in the economy, we tend to just see an orderly correction phase.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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Robert Simeon - <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> director<img src="/images/authors/fullbody/simeon-new-profile33444.png" alt="" style="float: right;">
The term 'bubble' is without a doubt the most misconstrued term today that clouds the Australian residential real estate markets.
All along I have said (as others too have said) that there is no such thing. What makes up this so called bubble? In short, nobody was able to explain what metrics determine this imaginary term used to paint the real estate markets.
When I go to Wikipedia and search "Real estate bubble": "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble)that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It can be identified through rapid increases in valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels and then decline."
The point that needs to be made is that bubbles happen much more frequently than booms and only after a significant boom do we then see property prices in a free-fall, given next we enter a recession.
The last boom Sydney experienced was back in the late 1980's where prices doubled and in some cases even trebled. That was then followed by "the recession we had to have" in the early 1990s.
Of course we have seen many bubbles since then for example: in 2004, 2007 and recently in 2012/13 although the present bubble is being driven by overseas investors and local investors. It also should be noted that this does not include your average households, although it is inferred that they, too, are playing a significant part in this 'bubble'.
They say "if you want to make a mountain out a molehill, add dirt" – and that's exactly what's happening in the Australian residential real estate markets. An over reliance of using median price indexes skews the results to create unrealistic market data interpretations, given top-end sales will always do this to median prices.
Sydney has approximately 700 suburbs and only when you break them down individually one quickly draws the conclusion: nothing happening here, move on.
Booms cause massive economic destruction (as history has shown) the only problem is that the vast majority of commentators were not around when Sydney experienced its last boom. Cue the confusion about bubbles.
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Exclusive: What are the signs of a property bubble? Property Observer asks the experts

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There’s no bubble in Australia’s housing market, but that doesn’t mean you can rest easy, according to ANZ’s chief economist Warren Hogan.
Speaking on ANZ’s BlueNotes, Hogan said that we have the platform to see a bubble develop over the next few years, particularly if more people start purchasing speculative investment properties for short-term growth.
“There’s certainly a risk that we’re moving into [bubble] territory but where we sit now in late-2014 is not a housing bubble,” said Hogan.
“There are some excesses forming around the Sydney market that is a very historically high level of investor activity. But this is not a broad-based bubble; outside of Sydney and Melbourne house price gains are lethargic – we’re talking 3%, 4%, 5% for the other capital cities. And the amount of leverage in the market outside of Sydney and Melbourne is quite modest,” he said.
His view is that a housing bubble must be characterised by a broad-based increase in leverage, rising prices and unsustainable speculative behaviour.
“The issue is that we have the platform to form a bubble in the next few years. We’ve seen a significant increase in prices in Sydney, in Melbourne over a number of years and there is some momentum outside of those major cities and that means that expectations for capital appreciation are starting to form,” he said.
“What we want to watch, and where we think it could become a real problem, is when we get a broader element of the community getting involved in investment property that is on a short-term speculative view. That’s where you get into problems.”
{qtube vid:=_Qt50EYF-2A}
Recently, Mirvac’s chairman John Mulcahy also expressed an opinion that the property market isn’t currently in a bubble. Instead, he pointed to lack of supply.
 “While we agree the level of activity in the sector has increased, and pricing has improved in certain geographies, we believe the primary driver of this is the fundamental undersupply of housing across the country,” said Mulcahy.
“In relation to foreign investors, we continue to see demand from offshore buyers, particularly for apartment projects located in our major cities. For the 2014 financial year, foreign buyers comprised 11% of all settlements.”
Mulcahy noted that the percentage of total investors, both foreign and domestic, versus owner occupiers, is just over half of their apartment business.
“This is at the top end of our historical band, however, we would need to see this reach much higher levels to suggest a bubble,” he said.
“Investor activity is certainly buoyed by low interest rates, a view that property is a safe investment and a more cautious outlook towards general equities. But the key driver of higher pricing is driven primarily by a lack of supply, particularly in Sydney.”
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No bubble, but there is a platform for one to develop: ANZ’s Warren Hogan

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The headline should not to be confused with Fifty Shades of Grey, although many would argue that the audiences are struggling to differentiate between fiction and nonfiction. 
Property is a best seller although it’s becoming quite evident that when some write about property market events you will attract more eyeballs and interest if one uses the stratagem approach – such is the competition today for audiences.
Easily the largest chapter in the 2014 edition of the Fifty Shades of Property has been that ‘bubble’ (although some weeks ago this plot lost credibility when data was released revealing that the majority of states and territories in Australia were reporting price retreats). 
What, no crash? This can’t be happening – we need a monumental property derailment in Australia like the rest of the world.
Of course Sydney has been the stand – out performer thanks wholly and solely to the investors. Although the authors maintain that touché mantra by referring to Sydney data as Sydney house prices – when in fact it’s well documented that the apartment market is the huge performer thanks to investor frenzy. Nonetheless, for the sake of the argument it will read better for the audience when we call this Sydney house prices – despite this really being nothing of the sort – so manipulate the headline to achieve another touché.
<blockquote>
Easily the largest chapter in the property story this year has been that ‘bubble’ (although some weeks ago this plot lost credibility).
</blockquote>
At this time every year we start to see new chapters being added, such as recession and massive unemployment for the year ahead – again fiction coming to the fore. Which takes me to a refreshing piece written by David Bassanese in The Australian Financial Review this week – <a href="https://www.afr.com/p/business/property/we_need_house_price_rises_to_grow_aWxB8rIXMqkj6p9X9o0nzM" target="_blank" title="We need house price rises to grow economy.">We need house price rises to grow economy.</a>
"The Australian economy has had an outstanding run over the past two decades and has admirably dodged a number of global upheavals that might have felled lesser economies. Any economist south of 40 – years – old has no working knowledge of what it feels like to fall into a wrenching recession.”
Now isn’t that the truth. As too, his critique of the Australian housing markets:
“More recently, an increase in commentary about a house price bubble has also been allowed to develop, when all we’ve seen to date is an overdue cyclical upturn in house prices – and in only a limited number of states – on the back of especially low interest rates.
"Surprisingly, even the Reserve Bank has been lulled into expressing concerns that the housing market has become ‘unbalanced’ between investors and first home buyers – so much so it’s threatening to dampen critical investor demand through new macroprudential controls.
“How serious are Australia’s housing problems? Relative to household income house prices are only nearing past cyclical peaks – and mortgage affordability is still better than average due to low interest rates.
“The fact that investors are more prominent in this cycle should be no surprise given the rental yields have remained attractive relative to interest rates, and rental vacancy rates are tighter than normal – helped in part by the fact that foreign students make up an important element of Australia’s rising population.
“To the extent the growing role of self-managed super funds and foreign investors raises concerns, these are best tackled at source by changes to laws.”
That is what I would call a nonfiction critique of what’s actually taken place and yes, Australian Treasury is presently investigating 33 potential foreign ownership breaches – although I can see many, many more chapters on this topic for the 2015 edition.
For the writers who unwisely decided to adopt a blood and thunder approach to Australia’s property markets, one can only hope they have learnt a valuable lesson from their embarrassing forecasting – given it’s very clear they have failed the credibility test.
As Mark Twain once wrote: "Most writers regard the truth as their most valuable possession and therefore are most economical in its use."
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Fifty Shades of Property: Where fact meets fiction

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The ABS released its <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/5204.0~2013-14~Main+Features~Related+National+Accounts+Products?OpenDocument" target="_blank">System of National Accounts for 2014-14</a> a couple of weeks ago which contained some interesting data on aggregate Australian land values. 
While commercial property tends to offer comparatively high yields, this is at least in part due to a comparative lack of capital growth in this asset class.  
While residential land values have boomed over the years, commercial land values have been virtually flat since 2008 and have simply never performed in the same manner. 
Residential land on the other hand...
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mVEzD9wXbkg/VFf0uicyCXI/AAAAAAAAQ8g/EoI7IExhZSw/s1600/LAND4.jpg"> 
This is not surprising, since the entire Australian financial and taxation system is set up for us to strive for home ownership and in many cases, to strive for property investment on top.
I noted the year 2008 above because it was at that time that the Australian property bubble theory really garnered support (to be fair, much of the financial world outside of Australia was imploding at that time), with some big studies eventually being released explaining why the Australian land value bubble must collapse.
<blockquote>
The thesis that land prices would inevitably suffer an epic crash from 2008 levels are looking shaky to say the least.
</blockquote>
The data series produced were never wrong, but they were frequently misinterpreted because users of the data took no account whatsoever of the factors which did not support their theory that land prices must collapse.
For example, disregarded were many of the real world factors which have served or continue to serve to push land values higher, including the deregulation of the financial system, interest rates falling substantially from above 15% to only 2.50% today, massive population growth in Australia, and a string of other factors as often discussed here before.
Six years on, let us now consider on what has happened to land values according this latest ABS data. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3FKRxdZ0H40/VFf0s0qtWTI/AAAAAAAAQ8Q/NvcuteYQPas/s1600/LAND1.jpg">
Goodness. As the chart shows the thesis that land prices would inevitably suffer an epic crash from 2008 levels are looking shaky to say the least.
Over the last six years, residential land values have continued to increase by 37% in New South Wales, by 46% in Victoria, 21% in Queensland, by 33% in South Australia and by 11% in Western Australia, having previously already boomed in Perth. 
Land values have taken off dramatically in all of the less populous states too.
Of course, with Australia's population growing at around 1.7% per annum, and thus some new land being rezoned for residential use, we would expect to see some increase in aggregate land values.
In fact, between June 2008 and June 2014 the Australian population increased by 2,051,000 or 9.6% (although apparently, it was further argued, population growth does not impact dwelling prices).
But clearly a population increase of less than 10% in no way accounts for residential land values in Australia increasing by 33% across the same time period. 
For completeness, here is what happened to commercial land values across the states. 
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/--GAH1Z8AMJ8/VFf0tDOkqSI/AAAAAAAAQ8M/NcKEHSxgQ1I/s1600/LAND2.jpg">
And rural land values, which outside of New South Wales, have done absolutely nowt.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fqt-4GEw3kQ/VFf0taQHGqI/AAAAAAAAQ8I/JqyR4r7bdAc/s1600/LAND3.jpg">
Overall, the data shows that the demand for residential land, which is so heavily focused on a few key coastal locations, particularly Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, has pushed land prices higher over time.
You can visit <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) or Pete's <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blog</a>.
His latest book is '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' .
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Soaring Australian land values put paid to property bubble theories

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I've always liked the saying "can't see the forest for the trees".
It appropriately sums up so much of the distorted self-indoctrinated bias of opinion pertaining to real estate in Australia.
The debate has never been so fierce – especially when it comes to the definition of that 'bubble'. I am of the firm belief that it is those who are actual historians of the Australian property markets who are the ones with the greatest ability to call the exact path and outcomes.
If you want to end the 'bubble' debate simply ask the question: "So when do you see this bubble bursting?"
It's always the fastest way to draw the debate to a fast halt. History has shown when you closely analyse the property market machinations through the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) – Cash Rate Target interest rate changes only then can we see the significant market changes.
That being when the RBA increases the cash rate twice (not once) we are starting to see a new course being charted. Then it takes another two to four years for the affects to be seen given that is when households start to come out of their fixed mortgage periods into the higher mortgage agreements.
Given we are the best part of at least 12 months away from the first cash rate increase – which should send the alarm bells ringing – then depending on the next increase we won't start seeing any noticeable market price corrections until 2016 to 2019.
We also need to bear in mind that when the cash rate increases so does the exchange rate as that goes up in unison, which is the last thing the RBA wants to see given it's presently trying to get the exchange rate down.
We should consider that the RBA is well down the track to introducing its new macroprudential tools as well as waiting to receive (then implement) the findings from the Murray Financial System Inquiry.
No doubt the RBA would be very much looking forward to tinkering the markets with these tools so that (for the very first time) other than increasing the cash rate  it may just be able to manipulate the markets in a way never seen before. For the first time ever (as many would not be aware) we are witnessing history with these new real estate market initiatives.
Again, history will show whether or not they were effective. However, it will be fascinating to watch the outcomes.
So back to those fools on the hill who following this week's RBA decision to leave the cash rate on hold at 2.50% – they even managed to get that wrong. No it was not a record (as some declared). Even though 14 straight months is getting up there, the actual record is 17, not 16 as some would believe. Furthermore, you can only apply consecutive meetings as the RBA doesn't meet in January.
Having said that, when you go back through the history of the cash rate movements at the RBA we start to see fascinating stories evolve.
I have conducted my research on instances where the cash rate remained on hold for 10 or more consecutive meetings:
The first period of RBA cash rate holds started on 30 July 1993 when the cash rate was moved from 5.25% to 4.75%, where it remained until 27 July 1994 – in total 12 holds. Then on 17 August it was bumped up 1.25% to 5.50%.
The next run of holds, which is the equal record 17 holds, happened on 14 December 1994 when the cash rate increased from 6.50% to 7.50%, where it remained until 3 July 1996.
Then it fell to 7.00%. So we are seeing long holds followed by increases and decreases.
On 30 July 1997 we saw another 16 consecutive holds at 5.00%, to then see it drop to 4.75%.
On 5 June 2002 we saw 16 holds at 4.75%, to then see it increased to 5.25% in November 2003.
On 4 February 2004 we saw thirteen holds at 5.25%. When the cash rate was increased to 5.50% in March 2005, that was followed by another twelve holds that was followed by an increase to 5.75%.
Then on 8 December 2011 we had another ten holds at 4.75%, then saw the rate dropped to 4.25%.
We are now in the current hold pattern after fourteen meetings, so based on history it's anyone's guess what or when the next movement might be. I predict the current rate will be set for the longest period in RBA history as it will go well into the twenty something meetings.
So when you see the arguments mounting that many commentators were disappointed that the RBA hardly mentioned that ''bubble" following this week's decision – history clearly shows that the board members may not be that concerned about that "bubble".
Maybe they are more concerned as to why investors have steered clear of the stock market which, by the way, had a few massive corrections this week – although, wait a minute, nothing much was written about that either.
It all depends on what you are looking at – the forest or the trees?
As to be expected stock levels increased significantly this week – so now we finally get to see firsthand just how strong the markets really are.
Watching these numbers will be telling over the period leading up to Christmas, although I don't believe we will see anything that even resembles that imaginary 'bubble'. Time will tell!
 
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Want to know when the market will change? Keep an eye on interest rates

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Guest observation
Property media in Australia can be confusing at the best of times. But in August, it was contradictory madness.
"Jump aboard as prices continue to rise," trumpeted local commentators. "Your crash is coming," overseas experts chimed in.
"Beware Australia's housing bubble," cried the Reserve Bank. Treasurer Joe Hockey then dismissed that idea. Next, the Reserve Bank said prices were "not a crisis" before sending "warnings" of an "inflated market" with potential for, yep, "bubbles".
So our dinner tables are now places of effervescent debate. Property is becoming notorious enough to be off-limits alongside sex, religion and politics. With each contradictory headline, prejudices burn on both sides of the fence. Everyone's an expert.
Yet if we focus more on what's happening in our own "micro markets", we often have all the answers.
Supply and demand drives price, so forget looking at Australia as a whole. We need to see the market in specific price brackets, geographies and lifestyles.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/mic.jpeg" alt="">
Sydney's art deco coastal belt - a micro market of its own. (Image supplied)
When buying, we don't view Australia as one market. We don't even see Sydney as one. And postcodes don't dictate precise boundaries for residents. People see a certain way of life, delivered by a similar category of home, across a variety of suburbs that cater to a specific lifestyle.
Think student belts from <a href="/news">Kensington</a> to <a href="/news">Camperdown</a>. Think brand new apartments from <a href="/news">Bondi Junction</a> to <a href="/news">Chippendale</a>. Think luxury homes around waterfronts. Think 3-bedroom inner-city terraces around $1.2 million.
They're just 4 different micro markets, moving independently of each other. And there's plenty more, each with their own lifestyle and buyer profile of residents wanting the same home.
As bubble chatter continues, some of these homes have boomed in value, while some prices have dropped. Certain rents have skyrocketed. Other landlords have slashed prices.
Luxury houses in prestige streets of <a href="/news">Woollahra</a> and <a href="/news">Point Piper</a> make another micro market. Prices in these pockets are down from levels seen three years ago. Try telling those owners we're in a "property boom". Yet that's what these stories keep beating up.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/mic2.jpeg" alt="">
Not booming: This home in Jersey Rd, Woollahra sold in 2008 for $2.2 million. It recently sold for the same money in 2014.
As savvy buyers and sellers, it makes sense to hone in on these mini trends, because each micro market performs differently over time. The wider data doesn’t tell us this.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/mic3.jpeg" alt="">
Across in Marrickville, this cottage sold in 2005 for $425,000. With some cosmetic updates, it fetched more than $1 million in 2014.
Residents who understand how their own sector of the market is performing can identify periods of dropping price, growth, and steady phases with no movement.
Existing owners can still capitalise on knowledge of micro markets. As sellers or landlords, the trick is to position our property correctly to capture the most demand.
Then, we can strategise and set objectives. We can make changes, renovate to suit the area, market homes differently, or wait. Understanding what's happening around us can be far more valuable than waiting on interest rate changes or following wider data.
When buying, we shouldn't accept reports that all home categories are hot. If Sydney and Australia is booming, we can still pounce on the ups and downs of the micro markets that suit our needs as buyers.
Even within all this "bubble" and "boom", the best buying/selling can find untapped momentum. We just have to become more in tune with our neighbourhoods.
Shannan Whitney is the chief executive of <a href="https://www.bresicwhitney.com.au/buy" target="_blank">BresicWhitney Estate Agents</a>.
 
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Forget one big bubble: we're a nation of micromarkets

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The <a href="https://www.rpdata.com/images/stories/content/pressreleases/2014-10-01--rpdata-rismark-home-value-index.pdf">latest house price index</a> figures released by RP Data earlier this week show a year-on-year increase in property values in Sydney of 14.3%. This has sparked the current hot debate on property prices and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/is-there-a-housing-bubble-thats-about-to-burst-in-australia/story-e6frflo9-1227062516640">speculation</a> of a price bubble. Though, it seems many people have forgotten what house price indices represent.
The All Ordinaries, the index of broad Australian equities market movements, increased by around 9% in the 12 months to the start of September. As investors understand, this doesn’t equate to all stocks on the market increasing in price by 9% over that period.
For example, shareholders in BHP, one of the largest ASX companies by market capitalisation, have suffered a modest loss over that period, even after dividend payments are considered. And as the All Ordinaries Index value has fallen 6% over the past month, there have been some stocks that have fallen more (Myer shares tumbled nearly 20% in the month) and others that have gone against the trend (insurer QBE was up 1.2% in September).
Similarly, a house price index gives a measure of the broad property market movement. In the case of the RP Data-Rismark Index, the change in the index value reflects the average increase or decrease in property prices.
Prices in Australian capital cities, the typical benchmark measure of the Australian residential real estate market, increased by 9.3% in the year to September.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/60563/area14mp/fx9nb9ry-1412182860.jpg"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/60563/width668/fx9nb9ry-1412182860.jpg" alt=""></a> Source: RP Data
In Canberra and Perth, however, the reported growth in real estate prices was significantly lower at 3.2% and 1.7% respectively. Outside of capital cities property price growth was also a modest 3.3%.
Even in Sydney, which has experienced the strongest price growth of any capital city, there are marked differences in the rate of price appreciation between different suburbs. Western Sydney clearly captures this with residents in <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/realestate/buying/price-hikes-for-homes-in-popular-western-sydney-suburbs-eclipse-annual-income-of-most-residents/story-fni0cate-1227049569685">South Granville</a> enjoying an increase in median property price of around 17.5%, while reported median prices have shown virtually no annual change in <a href="/news">Auburn</a>.
Blunt policy tools are not the answer
It wasn’t so long ago that the average price of Perth’s houses surpassed Sydney’s on the back of a mining industry-led boom in the West. At the national level, these differences in property price growth are the result of shifting labour and economic factors, and to a lesser extent state-specific regulation.
Within a city, local amenities and employment, as well as the preferences of the potential home buyers are reflected in price growth variation.
This is a key point that needs to be remembered when blunt policy tools are debated. Measures to tighten home loan lending, increase borrowing costs or remove negative gearing affect the market as a whole, whether in Sydney, Perth, or a regional centre.
For policy to be effective it needs to firstly identify what it aims to achieve. Housing policy is a double-edged sword. Rapidly rising house prices can put home ownership beyond the reach of younger and lower-income Australians. But policy designed to lower house prices can put existing homeowners at risk of falling “underwater” - holding negative equity in their property. Again, it is typically lower-income households that are most at risk in this scenario.
Cooling the bubble talk
The growing pressure for a policy response to rising house prices is in part due to fears of a price bubble. The last time the Australian or Sydney house price index increased at more than 10% in a year was 2009. Unsurprisingly, there were calls then too that increased regulation was required to prevent a property bubble burst and housing crisis.
Since 1996, Sydney real estate prices have grown at an average annual rate of 7.26% though, with considerable variation in that time. A growth rate in a single year of 10% in any other asset market with these dynamics would not be cause for alarm. Yet housing has this perception of being low risk, pervading our cultural psyche. Something idiomatically described as “safe as houses” is viewed as guaranteed or risk-free.
When faced with the reality that property prices go up and down, sometimes fast and sometimes slow, we seek ways to explain the conflict with these cultural expectations. Assigning the label or “price bubble” shifts the responsibility for our own irrationalities back on the market.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/32366/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Danika Wright is affiliated with Sirca, as a member of the Sirca-RP Data Advisory Board. She is a lecturer in Finance at the University of Sydney. 
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rational-talk-on-housing-prices-lost-in-a-bubble-32366">original article</a>.
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