There are few property developers nationally that can boast a workbook like the ASX-listed developer Cedar Woods. With eight apartment buildings under construction across four states, Cedar Woods is well positioned to take advantage of what Managing Director Nathan Blackburne says is a “national shortage of apartments.”

Cedar Woods purposefully has a diversified portfolio of apartments, townhouses, commercial, and residential communities across the country, enabling the business to remain resilient through market cycles and respond to shifting buyer demand.

Blackburne says there is a great shortfall of housing of all typologies, none more so for apartments. He says that is the case particularly in Perth, where the lack of new apartment projects has been particularly acute.

“Perth has been more affected than Melbourne,” Blackburne explains, noting that over the past five years, “very few new apartment projects” have been launched in either city. Historically, apartments made up around 20 per cent of new housing nationally. Cedar Woods estimates that figure has fallen to around 10 per cent today, a gap they believe must close.

<h2>Apartment appeal rebounding as supply shrinks</h2>

There are signs the tide is turning however. Blackburne says buyer apartment sentiment really picked up in mid 2025. “In October we saw our strongest sales month for apartments in Perth.” The buyer demand has driven their Subiaco apartment development, Incontro, to nearly 70 per cent sold. The increased buyer sentiment has strengthened Cedar Woods’ confidence in bringing forward the next apartment project in Western Australia, a three tower development planned for the prime site on Upham Street in Subiaco, adjacent to Incontro.

Demand is being driven by several factors; the lack of new apartments coming to the market, the increased demand with migration far outstripping the aforementioned supply, and the appetite to live closer to the city.

“Over the past three years, Perth’s population has grown by around 250,000 people, while only around 50,000 dwellings have been delivered,” Blackburne says, adding that more than twice that number would be needed just to keep up.&nbsp;

He said that many buyers are being forced to the urban fringe because of the greater supply of land product, but that, Blackburne argues, is pushing the fringe further out and motivating a re-evaluation of the value of inner- and middle-suburb apartments.

Demographic shifts are helping drive this rethink. Cedar Woods is seeing more boomers downsizing, young professionals entering the market, and a rising number of single-person households. There’s also a growing trend of parents buying apartments for teenage children, motivated by fears that housing prices will become out of reach. “It’s not only a strong investment now, but it can serve as a first home when their children move out.”

<h2>National diversification strategy</h2>

Cedar Woods’ strategy is not limited to Perth. Blackburne outlines their aim to diversify by price point, product type, and geography, which “gives us a broad customer base and smoother earnings profile.” Throughout their markets, they’re combining apartments, townhouses, and masterplanned communities, allowing flexibility to pivot toward undersupplied segments as demand evolves.

In Victoria, Cedar Woods is pressing ahead with a major site in Fairfield, just northeast of Melbourne’s CBD, a site which Blackburne says the company has had its sights on for many years. They are planning to deliver three towers with over 300 apartments, with the plans likely to be submitted in early 2026.

Blackburne also expresses optimism about broader inner-Melbourne supply dynamics. 
 
“While Melbourne’s apartment market is better supplied than Perth’s, and population growth remains strong, Cedar Woods believes the current stock will be absorbed quickly,” Blackburne says, however he warns that policy disincentives remain. “In Victoria … there are quite a lot of obstacles for apartment buyers,” he says, adding that the industry is working with the state government to “remove those barriers” and avert prolonged undersupply.

Cedar Woods has plans on the desks of the VIC Government to develop a 20-storey tower in Southbank, in the heart of Melbourne’s arts precinct. Designed by Rothelowman, the proposed tower will deliver 180 apartments, ranging from studios to three-bedrooms, along with creative amenity space devoted to arts and digital industries, a food and drink tenancy at street level, and a 700sqm recreation deck with indoor lounge space will provide a resident amenity hub.

Blackburne frames the project as a response to Melbourne’s growing undersupply of signature inner-city living. “We saw a thematic: a looming undersupply in inner-Melbourne, particularly in high-quality apartments, and wanted to capitalise on that,” he says. The site’s proximity to the Melbourne Arts Precinct, key tram lines, and Southbank’s cultural fabric makes it especially appealing, Blackburne says.

<h2>Charting the course forward</h2>

On top of the apartment developments underway and planned in Perth and Melbourne, Cedar Woods has a multi-stage apartment development in Brisbane’s Woolloowin, and several years remaining on their masterplanned communities in Williams Landing in Melbourne and Glenside in Adelaide, both of which offer a mix of apartments and townhouses.

Blackburne says the developer has been able to mitigate some of the macro risks currently at play in the new development space, particularly in the construction sector.

“Cedar Woods has been able to make many apartment projects work because of good buying of the raw land in the first place, as well as its strong pipeline of apartment projects, enabling the company to attract builders to build deep, multi-year relationships.”&nbsp;

For Cedar Woods, 2026 is set to be significant, with anticipated approvals and submissions laying the groundwork for fresh apartment supply and multiple launches in 2027.

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Cedar Woods ramps up apartment development amid Australia’s deepening housing shortfall

Rockdale has long been characterized as a suburb on the cusp. Well-located, well-connected, but historically underserved by modern apartment offerings.

It has everything going for it: outstanding connectivity to the Sydney CBD, just four train stops to Central Station, strong local amenity anchored by Roc​kdale Plaza and a growing main-street dining scene, and enviable proximity to Brighton-Le-Sands. The six-kilometre beachfront is lined with bayside restaurants, cafés, and walking paths, giving residents a lifestyle typically associated with much more expensive coastal suburbs.

What Rock​dale has lacked is high-quality contemporary apartments. Most existing developments date back several decades, with floorplans that no longer support modern living needs, and buildings constructed long before today’s standards in engineering, efficiency, and sustainability.

Lender, fund manager and apartment developer Princeton identified the gap early. Seeing all the right ingredients in Rockd​ale, transport, lifestyle, retail, and affordability, they set out to deliver what the suburb was missing. Their answer is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marque-rockdale-602-608-princes-highway-rockdale-nsw-2216">Marque Rockdale</a>, a collection of 58 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments now nearing completion just a short walk from Ro​ckdale Plaza, home to over 50 specialist retailers and anchored by&nbsp;Woolworths, Big W and Aldi.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136442 project_image_fid=355216]

Understanding they would be resetting the benchmark for the area, Princeton focused on ensuring buyers received best-in-class quality, longevity, and protection.

A major step was securing the sought-after Latent Defects Insurance policy from Resilience Insurance. This policy protects apartment buyers from structural or waterproofing defects for the first 10 years of the building’s lifecycle. Crucially, it is first-response insurance, meaning that if an issue arises, the insurer pays immediately for remediation—rather than waiting for lengthy investigations to determine fault before work can begin. For purchasers, it offers an unprecedented layer of security rarely seen in Sydney apartment projects.

During construction, independent building inspection firm SDSS has been providing Technical Inspection Services, bringing highly specialised construction experts on-site at key stages to ensure workmanship meets the highest standards. The project is being built by Coplex, an iCIRT-rated construction company, and throughout the build SDSS has frequently referred to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marque-rockdale-602-608-princes-highway-rockdale-nsw-2216">Marque Rockdale</a> as one of the best projects currently on their books.

Princeton also doubled down on comfort, acoustics, and livability.&nbsp;As well as being the only building along Princes Highway with a landscaped buffer between the building and the road, Princeton has purposefully included double-glazed windows in all apartments to reduce noise.

Apartments feature double-glazed, noise-reducing windows and ducted air conditioning in every residence.&nbsp;In addition to the project’s transport convenience, Princeton has partnered with GoGet Car Share to provide a dedicated GoGet vehicle housed permanently within the building. Residents will receive a free annual GoGet membership, paying only usage fees, offering a flexible alternative to owning a second car and enhancing the project’s sustainability credentials.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136442 project_image_fid=277075]

Residents will enjoy an exclusive rooftop oasis, purpose-designed as an extension of their living space. The communal rooftop includes BBQ facilities and outdoor entertaining areas, a&nbsp;pergola-shaded dining zone, a dedicated children’s play space, and a landscaped herb garden.

Princeton and Coplex is approaching completion of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marque-rockdale-602-608-princes-highway-rockdale-nsw-2216">Marque Rockdale</a>, and are expecting residents to move in early in the new year. The mix of apartment configurations and price points have been a hit with young professionals, those who need to commute to the CBD, and families who appreciate doorstep amenity.

“Marque is a place where residents will be proud to call it home," Princeton Head of Development George Young says.

"We’ve worked really hard with Coplex and our design team to deliver an incredible building for the future home owners to make their own. The homes are all designed to allow the residents to make it their own, a place to belong and live a stylish urban life."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136442]

Marque Rockdale sets a new standard of apartment living in Sydney's south

Plans to revitalize the&nbsp;long-established Benowa Gardens Shopping Centre into a mixed-use community combining living, shopping, dining, health and wellbeing facilities, have been proposed to the Gold Coast City Council.

The Benowa Gardens Urban Village proposal by Benowa Gardens Holdings seeks to transform the 17,660 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/203-ashmore-road-benowa-qld-4217">203 Ashmore Road</a> into a contemporary, sustainable destination that reflects global trends in modern community design while retaining the familiar local character residents value.

The site is bordered by Ashmore and Benowa Roads and Carrara, with ready access to Pindara private hospital, four schools, TAFE, sports fields and the nearby Botanic Gardens.

Benowa Gardens Holdings is seeking a preliminary Council approval only for its proposed masterplan and variations to the site’s Neighbourhood Centre zoning.&nbsp; 
Formal Public Exhibition commenced Friday and also marks the start of comprehensive community consultation with surroundings residents, schools, P&amp;Cs, existing retailers, nearby sporting clubs, arts groups and Botanic Gardens volunteers.

Designed by Neylan Architecture, the masterplan envisions around 413 new apartments, complemented by upgraded retail, dining, and wellness amenities as part of 10,000 sqm of retail, and 9,630 sqm of office space/medical suites.

The development will feature green open spaces, shaded promenades, landscaped terraces, pedestrian walkways, and expanded healthcare and lifestyle services in synergy with the neighbouring Pindara Private Hospital and local schools.

<img alt="Benowa" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="244f4d54-2e67-4141-92b8-78d5735f47c2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2012.47.34%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=FmF5lzhpwVZc7POsdB770TJ_Bf2c0od8" />

“This concept embraces the way people increasingly want to live - safely, conveniently, and within strong local communities,” said Patrick Lu, Director of Benowa Gardens Holding.

“Benowa Gardens will set a new benchmark for integrated living on the Gold Coast. It’s a thoughtful, community-minded evolution that brings global best practice in urban design to one of the city’s most established areas.”

Lu said this isn’t just a redevelopment, it’s a renewal with purpose.

“Benowa Gardens has served the community for decades. Our goal is to ensure it continues to do so for generations to come, as a lively, connected Urban Village where people can truly live, work and thrive. We’re already talking to school leaders and the community to seek their feedback on our proposal, and have taken on board their ideas to improve student safety with additional “traffic calming” measures on Carrara Street. We’re conducting meaningful and sincere consultations and want to play our role in preserving and enhancing the local community."

The proposed redevelopment aims to deliver tangible benefits across the Benowa and wider Gold Coast community, including:

<ul>
	<li>Improvement of retail amenity, to capture the under-served local market demand and keep the local business at their local shopping centre.</li>
	<li>Housing diversity; offering a range of apartment types for key workers, downsizers, and local families who wish to remain in the area.</li>
	<li>Enhanced shopping and dining; revitalised retail spaces designed to support local businesses and attract more visitors.</li>
	<li>Health and wellbeing access; additional medical and wellness amenities to complement existing local facilities.</li>
	<li>Improved traffic flow and access; two new access points, upgraded intersections, upgrade pedestrian pathway’s signal and proposed upgrade of pedestrian and cycle connections/space to improve safety and convenience, especially for school children.</li>
	<li>Environmental sustainability; energy-efficient design, green rooftops, and water-sensitive landscaping to reduce emissions and enhance comfort.</li>
	<li>Local jobs and investment; supporting hundreds of construction and long-term roles while stimulating local economic growth.</li>
</ul>

The group behind the project boasts extensive experience in the property development industry, both in Australia and international markets. Over the past 23 years, the group has been involved in the development and management of a diverse portfolio of assets including residential dwellings, shopping centres, bulky-goods stores, community and medical facilities, childcare centres, offices, hotels, and taverns, across Brisbane, Ipswich, and the Gold Coast.

Benowa Gardens to become new mixed-use urban village

Demand for townhouses in Melbourne’s inner west has surged as buyers seek the elusive combination of space, affordability, and location.&nbsp;

With family-first apartments increasingly rare and standalone homes often out of reach, townhouses have emerged as the new sweet spot, delivering generous living areas with lower maintenance needs within close proximity to the Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/kings-lane-south-kingsville-50-58-new-street-south-kingsville-vic-3015">Kings Lane</a>, the new under-construction townhouse development by the family-owned developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/blue-run">Blue Run</a>&nbsp;in South Kingsville, responds directly to this trend. Comprising just 25 residences designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, the project offers a compelling alternative to both apartment downsizers and family upsizers. With three-bedroom homes priced under $1 million, it presents one of the area’s rare attainable pathways to townhouse living less than eight kilometres from the CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145042 project_image_fid=355147]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-kingsville-vic-3015">South Kingsville</a> itself is quietly becoming one of Melbourne’s most dynamic pockets of urban renewal. Flanked by the established appeal of Yarraville, Newport and Williamstown, the suburb balances quiet, village-like streetscapes with major infrastructure upgrades and a growing slate of retail, dining and lifestyle amenity.&nbsp;

Kings Lane occupies a well-connected site at 50–58 New Street, just off Blackshaws Road and within walking distance of the emerging Union Quarter precinct, a major retail destination anchored by Woolworths, specialty food outlets and wellness services.

A 400-metre stroll brings residents to the Vernon Street shops, a local favourite known for its mix of independent grocers, cafes and family-run eateries. For broader shopping options, Altona Gate Shopping Centre and Yarraville Square are both within a short drive. Spotswood IGA and the Williamstown retail strip further broaden the convenience of daily essentials.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145042 project_image_fid=355139]

Dining options in the area lean toward eclectic and community-driven, with standouts like Rocco’s Deli, Dad and Dave’s, and Pizza d’ASPORTO offering a range of casual and elevated menus. Cafés such as Hudson Road Wine &amp; Beer and Blacksheep Coffee add to the lively yet local feel of the neighbourhood.

Green space is another hallmark of life at Kings Lane. Edwards Reserve is close enough for morning walks or casual sport, while larger parks like Newport Lakes, Yarraville Gardens, and Cruickshank Park are all a few minutes’ drive away. More than half of the nine-hectares of new green space or parkland being created as part of the West Gate tunnel works is located just at the end of New Street, the same street as Kings Lane.

&nbsp;

For those with school-age children, South Kingsville is home to a range of quality childcare centres and schools, including Kingsville Primary, Spotswood Primary, and Williamstown North Primary. Community Children’s childcare and South Kingsville Preschool are nearby, making the suburb particularly attractive to young families.

Transport links continue to improve, with Spotswood Station and the West Gate Freeway both within a five-minute radius. Future upgrades, including the proposed sky rail for Newport and Spotswood, and the delivery of the West Gate Tunnel project, promise even better access to the CBD and Melbourne Airport in the years to come.

Kings Lane's 25 all-electric townhouses are currently under construction, and will complete in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145042]

Staff Writer

Kings Lane townhouses offers rare value in Melbourne's thriving inner west

Developer-builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia</a> has set a new apartment price record for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/rhodes-nsw-2138">Rhodes</a>, a suburb the company has been instrumental in transforming over the past two decades.

The milestone follows the delivery of thousands of apartments across the harbourside peninsula, culminating in the $4.5 million sale of a 220 sqm penthouse in the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/rhodes-central-oasis-39-marquet-street-rhodes-nsw-2138">Rhodes Central Oasis</a> building, which Billbergia completed earlier this year. It is the first apartment in Rhodes to surpass not only the $4 million mark for settled sales, but also the $3 million mark, eclipsing the previous $2.75 million record set in 2021.

The purchaser had originally secured several apartments in the 40-storey tower off the plan as investments. During settlement, she spent more time in the Rhodes area and was so impressed with the building that she decided to downsize from her Northbridge home into the four-bedroom plus MPR penthouse.

The sale underscores the long-term work Billbergia has undertaken in Rhodes since the early 2000s. The company, rated 4.5 Gold Stars under the NSW iCIRT system, identifying it as one of the state’s most trustworthy and financially secure developers, was a pioneer of the area’s urban renewal. What was once a heavily industrial waterfront has become one of Sydney’s most successful examples of transit-oriented development.

<img alt="Billbergia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="56093d7f-db18-42f4-bf9b-115bdf76f5f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2011.10.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pca77Mr.H83nwXbJexmaLUAqBewtQ7d9" />

Billbergia is now driving the peninsula’s next major evolution: the most ambitious project in its nearly four-decade history. They are planning the Rhodes Bay Masterplan, an eight-tower, mixed-use precinct on Leeds Street. Currently with the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority which is now championing large-scale projects across the state, the Rhodes Bay Masterplan lays the groundwork for a generational reshaping of this important pocket of Sydney’s Inner West.

The masterplan spans more than 31,000 sqm of amalgamated industrial land along the foreshore, land that has been privately held and inaccessible to the community for more than a century. According to Billbergia’s Development Director, Saul Moran, reclaiming this land for public use is central to the company’s vision. 
 
“What’s so exciting is that we have over 300 metres of privately-held industrialised waterfront, land that’s been locked away for more than 100 years, which we’re bringing back to the community,” he says. “It’s taken many years to assemble sites like these, and the goal now is to transform them into meaningful public space where new homes can be built in an integrated, amenity-rich setting.”

At full completion, the Rhodes Bay Masterplan is expected to deliver over 2000 apartments, with the first 1000 to be completed by 2029. Billbergia’s design focused on nine slender towers, so they could give back more to the ground plane. There will be more than 16,000sq m of new parkland and recreation space, including sports fields, a foreshore play area and waterfront green links. Around 14,600 sqm of retail is also proposed, extending the precinct’s role as a true mixed-use hub.

<img alt="Rhodes Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="240ffc41-4f26-421a-9606-5c56f6fc2d93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2011.05.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=BkBxZr7S8CAt1vgNa8AF3zjdc3YuVh0L" />

“Density only works when it’s paired with amenity, transport and open space, and that’s what’s made Rhodes such an amazing success story,” Moran says, adding that the demographic shift Billbergia has seen over the last two decades has informed their future development pipeline in the suburb.

“Rhodes has moved from being largely an investor market to a strong owner-occupier community,” Moran says. “There’s real demand for three-bedroom homes, flexible intergenerational layouts, and apartments people can grow into.”

&nbsp;“We’re designing taller, more slender towers to free up the ground level for sport, recreation and green space. High-density communities thrive when people have the best backyards in Australia, and that’s what we want to create here.”

Demand remains robust, evidenced by Billbergia’s recent results. “We achieved a record sale across the entirety of Rhodes Central just last week,” Moran says. “It shows the depth of confidence buyers have in what’s being built here.”

Billbergia’s vertically integrated model allows them to overcome the recent cost escalation and challenges in the build environment. “Having an in-house construction team lets us control feasibility, value management and quality from day one,” Moran says. “It’s critical in the current market, where construction escalation is at the forefront of every project’s viability.”

The company is also leveraging the NSW Government’s new Housing Delivery Authority process, which Moran describes as a more efficient pathway without compromising design standards. 
 
“We’re really applauding the NSW Government for its efforts to increase housing supply. There’s been a remarkable improvement in how they’re helping deliver more homes, more quickly.”

Billbergia has already commenced construction of Stage One of the Rhodes Bay masterplan. They will be lodging the State Significant Development Application before Christmas.

“We’re moving quickly, but with due care,” Moran says. “This is a generational precinct, and it needs to be done right.”

Billbergia smashes suburb record as Rhodes transformation continues

Annual Growth

Apartment values across Melbourne rose 0.5 per cent over August, according to the latest data released by property data firm CoreLogic.

The&nbsp;August gains put apartment values up 1.6 per cent over the quarter, after 0.4 per cent growth over July and 0.8 per cent in June.

Over the year to date, values are up 6.6 per cent, with the median now sitting at $615,909. The median apartment price at the start of 2021 was $577,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5328 project_image_fid=163914]

Melbourne house values rose 1.4 per cent over August, marking another month where house performance continues to outstrip apartments, although the gap is starting to narrow given renewed housing affordability constraints.

Throughout the first quarter of the year, capital city house values were rising approximately 1.1 percentage points faster than units each month. By August the average performance gap reduced to 0.7 percentage points.

CoreLogic&#39;s research director Tim Lawless believes the convergence of growth in house values and unit values could be another demonstration of affordability becoming more challenging.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=103179 project_image_fid=167471]

&ldquo;The narrowing gap between house and unit value growth is most noticeable in Australia&rsquo;s most expensive city, Sydney, where the monthly growth rate for houses was 2 percentage points higher than units in March.

&quot;That &lsquo;gap&rsquo; has now reduced to 0.6 percentage points in August.

&quot;Based on median values, Sydney units cost almost $470,000 less than a house. At the same time, the growth gap between houses and units in Melbourne and Brisbane has widened.&rdquo;

Unit rents are starting to rise in Sydney and Melbourne, which is a good metric for investors to follow. Australia&#39;s two biggest capitals were the hardest hit by the strict border closures and lack of international migration.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=100675 project_image_fid=170523]

Nationally, rents have lifted by 8.2% over the 12 months ending August, the largest rise in rents since 2008.

&ldquo;The weaker trend in unit rents across Australia&rsquo;s two largest cities is likely a reflection of their greater exposure to temporary overseas migrants as a source of rental tenancy, especially foreign students who would normally underpin inner city high rise rental demand, Lawless says.

&quot;The sharp drop in demand due to closed borders has been exacerbated by high supply levels as both cities come out of an unprecedented surge in inner city apartment construction,&rdquo; Lawless added.

Sydney unit rents have consistently risen each month during 2021, while in Melbourne, unit rents have been rising since June.

Unit rents are starting to rise in Sydney and Melbourne, which is a good metric for investors to follow

What happened to Melbourne apartment values over August?

Westpac have revised upwards its outlook for Australian dwelling prices.

It had predicted, earlier this year, a 20% increase over 2021 and 2022.&nbsp;

But a stronger than expected surge over the first half of 2021 is now expected to see prices up 18% this year with a further 5% coming next year.

While the duo, Bill Evans, Westpac&#39;s chief economist and Matthew Hassan, its senior economist, see lockdowns as likely to cause some loss of momentum in the third quarter, particularly in the Sydney market, they see a swift rebound with price growth lifting again into year end.

Price growth is expected to slow to 5% in 2022 with most of the increase occurring in the first half.&nbsp;

Prices are then expected to decline 5% in 2023 as stretched affordability in most markets combines with the RBA&rsquo;s first rate hike cycle since 2009.

<a href="/developments/sydney-nsw?source_news_article_id=107113&amp;ref=news_body_link"><img alt="" height="800" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/template_photoshop_sydneycbd_3.png" width="1200" /></a>

&quot;The upswing that emerged at the start of this year has continued to run ahead of expectations with markets carrying strong momentum into the second half,&quot; they noted.

Prices nationally rose 12.2% over the first six months, an extraordinary 25.6% pace in annualised terms.

The update noted deteriorating affordability is already weighing heavily on buyer sentiment with the &lsquo;time to buy a dwelling&rsquo; index in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Survey is down 25% from its peak last November.&nbsp;

&quot;There are also tentative signs that finance to owner occupiers has peaked.&quot;

They see macro&ndash;prudential tightening as highly likely.

<a href="/developments/melbourne-vic?source_news_article_id=107113&amp;ref=news_body_link"><img alt="" height="800" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/template_photoshop_melbournecbd_10.jpg" width="1200" /></a>

&quot;The timing is expected to be delayed until around March&ndash;June 2022.&nbsp;

&quot;Measures are expected to be successful and to weigh more heavily on markets where affordability is stretched.&nbsp;

&quot;Price growth is expected to stall in Sydney and Melbourne through the second half of 2022 but maintain some positive momentum in most other markets where affordability is still attractive.&quot;

The combination of rising rates; stretched affordability; and macro&ndash;prudential policies is likely to see prices easing off their highs by an average of around 5% in 2023 with all markets expected to see modest declines, Westpac forecast.

Bill Evans, Westpac's chief economist and Matthew Hassan, its senior economist now see a total gain over the two years of 23% with 18% coming in 2021

jchancellor

Westpac forecast 18% dwelling price rise in 2021 and 5% next year

<html><body>
Expert Observer

There were two pieces of positive news in the past week which demonstrate the value to the nation and its citizens of growth in the property market.

One came from research from the Real Estate Institute of Australia which shows that the median house price for the Australian capital cities has risen from $160,000 in 1996 to $825,000 today.

The Real Estate Institute of Australia says the median house price has risen more than 400% in the past 25 years. 

It sounds extraordinary – but, to put it in perspective, it equates to an average annual increase of 6.6% per year. Healthy, and certainly ahead of inflation and wages growth, but not monumental.

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This is despite fairly muted growth since 2016. The data shows that over the past five years, the median house price in the capital cities grew 25%, from $683,000 to $825,000, while “other dwellings” rose by 10% to $600,000.

The other item of note came from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It says that a booming property market helped add half a trillion dollars to Australia’s household wealth in the December Quarter, taking the total to just over $12 trillion.

The nation recorded its biggest gain in quarterly wealth since 2009 despite COVID-19 concerns and employment fears over the end to JobKeeper.

According to the ABS, total household wealth increased 4.3%, or $502 billion, in the last three months of 2020, marking the highest quarterly growth rate since the December Quarter of 2009.

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The property market was the key driver. During the December Quarter, residential assets grew by $246 billion, or 3.5%, the biggest rise since the December Quarter of 2016. That came on top of a $200 billion rise in house values for the September Quarter.

ABS head of finance and wealth Katherine Keenan says: “The growth in residential assets was seen across both owner-occupier and investor housing in the December Quarter. Owner-occupier housing loans grew 1.9%, the strongest growth in four years, while investor housing loans grew 0.4%, which was the first positive growth in the past two years.”

The housing debt to income ratio decreased from 139.2 to 139 over the quarter, as growth in income exceeded growth in housing debt. The ratio has fallen for the past four quarters.

This is mostly good news for nation. I’m telling you this because you won’t hear it from mainstream media. What you will hear is that it’s a crisis. Indeed, several crises. An affordability crisis, a debt crisis and a social crisis. 

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But I see mostly positives. The key factors here are that this gives confidence to most Australians, encouraging them to spend, which benefits the economy and creates jobs, and it helps people establish the financial base to fund their retirement.

Successive federal governments for the past 20 years or so have encouraged Australians to invest to provide for their retirement years, placing less reliance on the public purse. 

For many Australians, real estate is the option of choice because they feel they understand it and they see it as a safe and solid option for growth.

The current national property boom is a big step down that path.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The Real Estate Institute of Australia says the median house price has risen more than 400% in the past 25 years

terryryder

Why the growth in the property market is important to Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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After a stronger than expected housing turnaround, NAB are now forecasting dwelling values to rise by an average of eight per cent nationally across 2021, with a view that 2022 will also see strong gains.

The revision comes after the turnaround in the housing markets, pared with low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on newly built properties.

"The housing market has fared significantly better than expected over the past year, despite significant headwinds from slower population growth and a weaker labour market," the NAB report read.

"Lower interest rates and household income support from the Federal Government have been a key support amidst the challenges of the pandemic.

"While the impact of lower rates is broad-based, there are some key dynamics underlying our forecast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90553]

NAB expect the smaller capitals to continue to outpace Sydney and Melbourne, but the two biggest capital city markets have closed the gap from NAB's previous forecasts.

In the Q2 update in mid-2019, NAB were forecasting a -4.3 per cent average decline across the country, with Melbourne (-7.3 per cent) and Sydney (-4.7 per cent), driving the losses.

In Q3, following a positive response to COVID-19, NAB flipped their forecast, predicting five per cent gains nationally over 2021 and Melbourne (+3.6 per cent) and Sydney (+4.4 per cent), going full circle.

Now NAB expect nearly eight per cent gains average, with Sydney and Melbourne not far behind other capital city markets.

<img alt="" height="791" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_q4_forecast.jpg" width="1200">

They expect the best performer to be Brisbane, where there are 10.1 per cent gains forecast for 2021 and 6.3 per cent for 2022.

Adelaide and Hobart are predicted to see the strongest gains over 2022, up 7.4 per cent after 8.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent gains over 2021.

Sentiment has been on the turn for a number of months and the NAB Residential Property Index ended 2020 at a survey high +45 points. Confidence levels returned to levels last seen before COVID in late-2019 as expectations lifted sharply for house price growth across the country.

<img alt="" height="905" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_sentiment_q4.jpg" width="1200">

NAB economist Alan Astor says first home buyer demand remains very strong in new and established housing markets and is likely being supported by historically low interest rates and government support such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and HomeBuilder.

"The brief pullback in house prices earlier in the year may have also helped sentiment among these buyers."
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The revision comes after a stronger than expected housing market, pared with the low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on new properties.



NAB raises dwelling price forecast for 2021 and 2022

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Capital city residential property prices rose by 2.2 percent in the March 2017 quarter, to be 10.2 percent higher over the year.
Apartment price growth has been strong in Sydney in recent years, but overall established house prices have comfortably outperformed through this cycle to date, partly reflecting an apartment overbuild in some regions. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" alt="">
The total value of Australia's dwelling stock has now increased by 50 per cent since December 2011, rising by $2.2 trillion to a total of a shade over $6.6 trillion. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" alt="">  
Sydney leads, for now
Over the year to March the strongest price growth was recorded by Sydney (14.4 per cent) and Melbourne (13.4 per cent), though it seems highly likely that Sydney's annual growth rate is now firmly on a downwards trajectory from here. 
At the other end of the scale more annual price declines were suffered by Perth (-3.5 per cent) and Darwin (-5.9 per cent). 
The tight Hobart market recorded the strongest quarterly gain (3.4 per cent) to be up by a boisterous 11.3 per cent over the past year. 
Indexing the numbers back to 2003 shows how long run dwelling price performance between the capital cities is converging, with the resources capitals coming back down to earth following the peak of the mining boom.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A5.jpg" alt="">
At the state level New South Wales has seen a huge surge in its mean dwelling price which has increased from $535,300 at the end of 2011 to $886,800, for an absolute increase of $351,500 or 66 per cent.  
Reflecting the end of the resources construction boom, over the same timeframe mean prices were up by only 3 per cent in Western Australia and declined by 2 per cent in the Northern Territory. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A6.jpg" alt="">
Nationally the mean dwelling price has increased by $182,800 or 38 per cent since the end of 2011. 
Of the $2.2 trillion increase in the total value of the dwelling stock since 2011, the three most populous states of New South Wales ($1.2 trillion), Victoria ($0.6 trillion), and Queensland ($206 billion) together accounted for 91.5 per cent of the increase.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A3.jpg" alt="">
Supply response picks up
Finally, a quick look at the net increase in the dwelling stock, which has picked up the pace in swelling by 194,000 dwellings over the year to March 2017. 
The March stock figures are preliminary and subject to revision - the increase looks decidedly low in New South Wales, for example - but the annual rate of increase has clearly picked up the pace since 2012.
It's interesting to note that while Victoria has increased the size of its dwelling stock by 10.3 per cent over the past half decade - much faster than the 6.7 per cent increase in New South Wales - the strong annual increase of 2.2 per cent is still only just ahead of the state's rampant rate of population growth.
The wrap 
There were more strong gains in dwelling prices in Sydney (3 per cent) and Melbourne (3.1 per cent) across the first quarter of the calendar year.
Meanwhile Adelaide prices rose by 1.5 per cent to be 5 per cent higher over the year, and Canberra snuck in under the radar to record annual growth of 8.9 per cent. 
The above having been said, the double digit annual growth rate is likely to represent the peak for this cycle, with a raft of macroprudential measures appearing well set to douse investor activity. 
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Capital city prices rise 10 percent

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A record number of sales under the hammer has delivered Melbourne’s strongest property market in seven years, despite modest growth in median prices in the last three months of 2017.  
New REIV data shows house prices in metropolitan Melbourne rose for the seventh consecutive quarter in December, up 1.1 per cent to a median of $821,000. This increase boosted the city’s annual price growth to 13.2 per cent for 2017 – the highest since 2010.  
REIV President Richard Simpson said price growth in 2017 was undoubtedly bolstered by a buoyant auction market with more than 25 auction records broken.
“While price growth slowed in the December quarter due to increased supply and reduced investor activity, 2017 was a record-breaking year for Melbourne’s property market,” he said. 
“High levels of interstate and overseas migration, new Government initiatives for first homebuyers and record low interest rates have contributed to significant double-digit price growth last year.” 
TOP GROWTH SUBURBS – DECEMBER QUARTER
<table class="t1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td class="td1" valign="bottom">
 
</td>
<td class="td2" valign="middle">
Suburb
</td>
<td class="td3" valign="middle">
Dec-17 Median
</td>
<td class="td4" valign="middle">
Sep-17 Median
</td>
<td class="td5" valign="middle">
Quarterly Change
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td6" valign="bottom">
1
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="bottom">
TOORAK
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$4,600,000
</td>
<td class="td9" valign="middle">
$3,210,000
</td>
<td class="td10" valign="middle">
43.3%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td11" valign="bottom">
2
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="bottom">
SOUTH YARRA
</td>
<td class="td13" valign="middle">
$2,280,500
</td>
<td class="td14" valign="middle">
$1,799,500
</td>
<td class="td15" valign="middle">
26.7%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td11" valign="bottom">
3
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="bottom">
MENTONE
</td>
<td class="td13" valign="middle">
$1,200,000
</td>
<td class="td14" valign="middle">
$1,002,500
</td>
<td class="td15" valign="middle">
19.7%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td6" valign="bottom">
4
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="bottom">
SURREY HILLS
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$2,285,000
</td>
<td class="td9" valign="middle">
$1,930,000
</td>
<td class="td10" valign="middle">
18.4%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td11" valign="bottom">
5
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="bottom">
ESSENDON
</td>
<td class="td13" valign="middle">
$1,715,000
</td>
<td class="td14" valign="middle">
$1,450,000
</td>
<td class="td15" valign="middle">
18.3%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td11" valign="bottom">
6
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="bottom">
HAWTHORN
</td>
<td class="td13" valign="middle">
$2,718,000
</td>
<td class="td14" valign="middle">
$2,300,000
</td>
<td class="td15" valign="middle">
18.2%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td6" valign="bottom">
7
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="bottom">
MALVERN
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$2,370,000
</td>
<td class="td9" valign="middle">
$2,014,000
</td>
<td class="td10" valign="middle">
17.7%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td11" valign="bottom">
8
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="bottom">
KEYSBOROUGH
</td>
<td class="td13" valign="middle">
$885,000
</td>
<td class="td14" valign="middle">
$760,500
</td>
<td class="td15" valign="middle">
16.4%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td11" valign="bottom">
9
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="bottom">
CANTERBURY
</td>
<td class="td13" valign="middle">
$3,300,000
</td>
<td class="td14" valign="middle">
$2,875,000
</td>
<td class="td15" valign="middle">
14.8%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td6" valign="bottom">
10
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="bottom">
 ROSEBUD
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$624,000
</td>
<td class="td9" valign="middle">
$552,000
</td>
<td class="td10" valign="middle">
13.0%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Top performing suburbs in the December quarter were almost exclusively located at the premium end of the market and included Toorak, South Yarra, Surrey Hills and Canterbury.  
“Demand for houses in the city’s most exclusive suburbs continues to outstrip supply, with increased competition delivering exceptional results for vendors in these areas.”    
The affordable end of the market also performed well in December with the median house price in the outer suburbs increasing 2.4 per cent over the quarter to $666,500.
“Increased participation from owner-occupiers is driving values in the city’s outer suburbs, with these areas offering buyers the ideal combination of affordability and space.”
“Strong price growth over the past year has meant that houses within 20km of the CBD are almost out of reach for many first homebuyers. These buyers are now looking for new entry points to the market, especially in established suburbs with infrastructure, amenities and services.”
Melbourne’s apartment market rebounded in December with the citywide median price increasing 1.2 per cent to $594,500.
Simpson added that regional Victoria had also experienced its strongest property market in recent years with house prices up 2.6 per cent in the December quarter to a record high $396,500 – an annual increase of 10 per cent on the same period last year. 
“Regional cities and towns within commuting distance of the CBD have certainly benefitted from strong price growth in Melbourne with a number of these areas now recording median house prices higher than those in the outer ring.” 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Melbourne market records highest annual growth in seven years: REIV

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Most Australian property markets saw modest growth in 2015, according to Residex.
Sydney was again the exception – given houses and units achieved annual growth of 18.36% and 13.48% respectively.
Melbourne houses also recorded strong annual growth of 13%.
Perth houses saw an unexpected surge of 2.30% in the month of December, while Adelaide, Hobart and ACT houses showed steady capital growth over the last 12 months.
"The end of 2015 marked the end of the Sydney housing boom," Residex advised.
The upswing in the current cycle lasted almost two years and, in real dollar terms, the median house increased by approximately $375,000.
Historically, Sydney has been the leader of growth with the Melbourne and Brisbane markets following.
Given this, the Melbourne house market could peak sometime in the first quarter of 2016 while Brisbane could follow later in the year. However, global economic trends and a national crackdown on speculative buying may hamper growth for these other east coast cities.
Table 1 shows the capital growth, rent and sales summary for December 2015.
Table 1: December 2015 Summary
<a href="/images/2016/02/02/Table_1_Capital_City_Summary.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/02/Table_1_Capital_City_Summary.jpg" alt="">
Source: Residex
Graph 1 shows the monthly capital growth trend of Sydney and Melbourne. The graph depicts Melbourne’s peak growth in houses following Sydney.
Graph 1: Monthly Capital Growth Trend: Sydney and Melbourne  
<a href="/images/2016/02/02/Graph_1_Monthly_Growth_Sydney_Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/02/Graph_1_Monthly_Growth_Sydney_Melbourne.jpg" alt="">
Source: Residex
Residex suggested it was difficult to say what exacerbated the last upswing in Sydney and whether similar factors will impact other major dwelling markets.
"Many have speculated and reported anecdotes of Chinese foreign investment pushing up real estate values," Eliza Owen, the market analyst for Residex/Onthehouse.com.au said.
"There is currently no reliable dataset in existence that documents foreign investment in Australian residential real estate, so it is not rigorously sound to say that this contributed to the enormous value increases.
"In any case, the People’s Bank of China has placed restrictions upon citizens taking capital out of China to encourage investment within their own country (citizens are permitted to take just US$50,000 out of the country each year. This action could limit the growth experienced in other Australian cities.
"It is also not necessarily true to say that speculative domestic investment bid up the market.
"However, there is some evidence suggesting that investors became more active than owner occupiers in the latest housing boom."
The ABS collects data on the amount of money lent for the purposes of owner occupation versus investment. In recorded history, 2014 was the first time investor loans overtook owner occupier loans. Graph 2 presents this dataset over the last 5 years. It is worth noting that the figures in Graph 2 are for Australia wide lending, so the phenomena of investors overtaking owner occupiers may not be specific to the Sydney market.
Graph 2: Significant Lender’s Finance Commitments to Investors vs. Owner Occupiers
<a href="/images/2016/02/02/Graph_2_Investors_v_Owner_Occupiers.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/02/Graph_2_Investors_v_Owner_Occupiers.jpg" alt="">
Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5609.0 – Housing Finance, Australia Note: Excluded refinancing for owner occupiers
 
The graph suggests that either investors were paying more money for dwellings or investors were buying a higher volume of dwellings at this time.
Theoretically, investors who owned property in Sydney could have continued to bid up prices in the market while interest rates were low. The ability to borrow equity against property facilitates this – the higher property prices go, the more equity investors have to purchase new dwellings.
In July 2015, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced regulations<a href="https://blog.residex.com.au/2016/01/29/january-market-update/?utm_source=membersNewsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Cid=ResiJanNews16&amp;mc_cid=9124f9ec50&amp;mc_eid=1c64ff30b3#footnote-3">[3]</a> that would require lenders to hold more capital against home loans. By the beginning of July 2015, a downswing in the Sydney market had begun. Sydney house values fell 0.14% in the month of December, the first fall in the aggregate market since January 2014.
One of the criticisms of APRA’s decision was that it was not specific to the rapidly growing markets of Sydney and Melbourne.
However, of the 514,066 sales Residex recorded across Australia for 2015, approximately 20% were in the Sydney metropolitan region and a further 20% were concentrated in the Melbourne metropolitan.
"If anything, high home loan rates may have caused investors to spread their wealth among more affordable cities across the country."
Property developers Stockland and Mirvac have reported that there are Sydney buyers interested in Brisbane apartments.
Private developers have also recorded Sydney buyers making up as much as 40% of investment in new developments.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Brisbane property set for price peak in late 2016: Residex

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The headline growth figures certainly look a bit on the soft side. But the breakdown of the growth components provides a much more interesting picture. 
Government consumption provided the biggest contribution to growth while household consumption held up relatively well. The biggest drag was net exports which detracted 0.6 percentage points from growth. In addition the drawdown in inventories also crimped growth by 0.2 percentage points. Overall, not an “ideal” mix of growth drivers, but close enough for this point in the cycle. 
The good news is that productivity is still rising while wage costs are falling and price pressures are restrained.
The economic growth figures are largely important as an historical record. But the data can’t tell us much about the here and now. And certainly the figures have limited use in telling us where the economy is going. But for the Reserve Bank the data serves as a base for its forecasts. It’s a case of ticking the figures off to ensure that there are no surprises. 
<a href="/images/2015/09/02/Screen-Shot-2015-09-02-at-2.27.22-PM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/02/Screen-Shot-2015-09-02-at-2.27.22-PM.jpg" alt="">
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">Overall the data confirms that growth over the past year has been below trend but “ok” for an economy that is going through a generational transition. Despite all the doom and gloom about the winding back of mining investment, fiscal contraction and horror stories about the collapse of the manufacturing sector it is pretty clear that the economy is in reasonable shape – certainly in better shape than most other so-called “advanced” economies.</div>
<div class="column">
 While media commentary is likely to focus on the fact that growth is a touch on the soft side the key point is that Australia has completed 24 consecutive years of growth. It is an achievement to be celebrated. And interestingly the drawdown in inventories in the quarter may be as a result of the lift in domestic demand, and it does mean that businesses will be re-stocking shelves in coming quarters – supporting the overall growth figures.
</div>
<div class="column">
 Looking forward growth will continue to remain mixed over the next few months. The transition from mining to housing-led investment continues to be the dominant driver of activity. Although somewhat encouragingly the ongoing lift in consumer and business confidence is now translating through to a lift in risk appetite and investment plans.
</div>
<div class="column">
 CommSec tips the economy to grow by 2.75-3.00% over the coming year. CommSec believes that given the ongoing below trend growth outcomes, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to lift interest rates over the next year. 
</div>
</div>
</div>
<a href="/images/2015/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-02%20at%202.35.11%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-02%20at%202.35.11%20PM.png" alt="">
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
<div class="column">
 National Accounts:
</div>
<div class="column">
 Economic Growth: The economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.9 per cent increase in the March quarter.
</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">
The economy has grown 2.0 per cent over the past year, below the decade-average growth rate of 2.8 per cent and below the 15-year average of 2.9 per cent. In 2014/15, the economy grew by 2.4 per cent.
</div>
<div class="column">
 The non-farm economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.9 per cent lift in the March quarter. Annual growth stands at 1.9 per cent.
</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">
Farm GDP fell by 2.6 per cent in the June quarter after rising by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter. Farm GDP rose 4.1 per cent over the year.
</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">
At current prices, GDP rose by 0.3 per cent in the quarter to be up by 1.6 per cent over the year. The annual growth rate is well below the decade average of 6.2 per cent. Over the year to June 2015, the Australian economy was valued at $1,612 billion.
</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">
Growth drivers: The biggest contributions to growth came from government consumption (+0.4 percentage points), followed by household consumption expenditure (+0.3pp), and public investment (+0.2pp). The biggest drag on growth was net exports (exports less imports) (-0.6 percentage points), inventories (-0.2pp) and dwelling investment (-0.1pp).
</div>
<div class="column">
 Inflation: In terms of domestic price pressures, the household consumption implicit price deflator rose 0.7 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.3 per cent lift in the March quarter. Annual growth stands at just 1.4 per cent. Real non-farm unit labour costs rose by 1.1 per cent in the June quarter after falling by 0.6 per cent in the March quarter. Real non-farm unit labour costs rose by just 0.9 per cent over the year. 
</div>
</div>
</div>
<a href="/images/2015/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-02%20at%202.54.08%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-02%20at%202.54.08%20PM.png" alt="" width="740" height="261">
 
<div class="page" title="Page 3">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Productivity: Gross value added per hours worked in the market sector rose 0.4 per cent in the June quarter after 0.3 per cent growth in the March quarter. Annual growth stands at 0.8 per cent. Hours worked in the market sector were up 0.3 per cent in the quarter to be up 1.7 per cent for the year.
</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">
States &amp; Territories: The best description of the performance of States and Territory economies is state final demand plus net exports. The ACT had the fastest annual growth rate in the June quarter (up 5.4 per cent), followed by Victoria (up 2.9 per cent), NSW (up 2.4 per cent), South Australia (up 0.7 per cent) and Tasmania 
</div>
<div class="column">(up 0.5 per cent). The Northern Territory contracted by 11.4 per cent followed by Western Australia (down 2.4 per cent) and Queensland (down 0.8 per cent).</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">
Consumer spending lifts. Household spending rose by 0.5 per cent in the June quarter to be up 2.5 per cent for the year. Only five of the 17 sectors recorded weaker spending in the quarter. Spending on Health rose by 2.5 per cent followed by Communications (up 1.9 per cent). But spending fell in Cigarettes &amp; tobacco and Alcoholic beverages (both down 2.2 per cent) and Electricity, gas and fuel (down by 2.0 per cent).
</div>
<div class="column">
 Industry sectors: Thirteen of the 19 industry sectors expanded in the June quarter. Rental, hiring and real estate services grew by 2.7 per cent, contributing 0.1 percentage points (pp) to growth in the quarter. Five other sectors contributed 0.1 percentage points to growth. The weakest sectors were Mining (down 3.0 per cent and removing 0.3pp from growth) and Agriculture, forestry and fishing (down 2.3 per cent).
</div>
<div class="column">
 Other points:
</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">
Profit share falls. In seasonally adjusted terms, the ratio of profits to total factor income fell from 26.3 to 25.4 per cent in the June quarter. The wages share rose from 53.0 per cent to 53.4 per cent.
</div>
<div class="column">
 Household savings ratio rose. The household saving ratio lifted from 8.3 per cent to 8.8 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in the June quarter. In trend terms household saving held steady at 8.6 per cent in the quarter.
</div>
<div class="column">
 Imports ease as a share of spending. The imports to sales ratio fell from 0.394 in the March quarter to 0.392 in the June quarter.
</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The inventory to sales ratio rose from 0.627 in the March quarter to 0.643 in the June quarter. </div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="/images/2015/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-02%20at%202.57.16%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="/images/2015/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-02%20at%202.57.16%20PM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 3">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">What is the importance of the economic data?</div>
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The quarterly National Income, Expenditure and Product release (national accounts) from the Bureau of Statistics is the most complete assessment of Australia’s economic performance. Detailed estimates are provided on incomes (wages, profits), spending (such as household, dwelling investment and trade (exports and imports) and production (comparing industry performance). Other data includes household saving and the economic performance of States and Territories.
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<div class="column">The main use of the national accounts figures is as a historical record of economic performance. The information has little forward-looking value for currency, interest rate or share markets.</div>
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 What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
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 The national accounts data is backward looking. But the data is taken into account by the Reserve Bank, serving as a base for forecasts. The Reserve Bank uses six-month annualised growth figures to ascertain how the economy is travelling. And in that context growth looks more robust annualising at around 2.2 per cent.
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 Importantly business confidence and conditions remain healthy and should support a lift in activity over the latter part of 2015.
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 At present there is no rush to lift or cut interest rates although the risks lie with another rate cut given the patchiness in the economy. CommSec believes interest rates will remain unchanged over the rest of 2015. 
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<div class="column"><a href="/images/2015/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-02%20at%202.59.28%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="column">Savanth Sebastian is an economist for CommSec. You can follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/commsec" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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Australia's 24th consecutive year of growth: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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Sydney's annual growth rate sits at 18.4% for the year to July, the highest on record since 2002, according to CoreLogic RP Data's head of research Tim Lawless.
In the Sydney Housing Market video for August he said one factor contributing to the higher value is a short supply of homes for sale, adding currently listings in Sydney are down on average.
"In Sydney we are currently tracking approximately 18,150 advertised property listings, which is historically well below average, he said. 
"To provide some context, in late 2011 when market conditions were relatively soft there were slightly more than 40,000 homes available for sale across the Sydney market."   
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://vimeo.com/135932427" target="_blank">here</a> to see the video.
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